Series 35: Athletics at Blue Jays

[Joe S.]

It's funny what a difference a season makes...

Right now the Jays are 64-52. On this day last season the jays were 63-59 but 7.5 games behind baltimore.

Just for fun. On this day in 1993, the jays were 66-51 and tied for first with the yankees.

 

[Andy07]

I think part of the problem is the yankees are barren of prospects. So their chance at price will be in November when they offer him stupid money.

Where did you get this information from? They Yankees system is pretty decent and I'd bet that even at the time of the trade deadline (when Toronto had a lot more prospects) that both systems were very close to each other.

 

[Joe S.]

I think part of the problem is the yankees are barren of prospects. So their chance at price will be in November when they offer him stupid money.

Where did you get this information from? They Yankees system is pretty decent and I'd bet that even at the time of the trade deadline (when Toronto had a lot more prospects) that both systems were very close to each other.

Just my opinion.

And you pretty much just confirmed by belief by saying 'when Toronto had a lot more prospects'

 

[Andy07]

Pillar is dumb.  That shouldn't be an earned run.  He dove for a ball that had already hit the ground.

I'd give him a break on that one considering how solid he's been all year.

But he hasn't really been that solid (especially compared to the ridiculous amount of praise the media heaps upon him). He regularly misreads and takes bad routes to balls hence the non-stop diving. He's made some remarkable plays, but he's botched quite a few routine ones as well. He's like a slightly better Rajai Davis (defensively speaking).

 

[Andy07]

I think part of the problem is the yankees are barren of prospects. So their chance at price will be in November when they offer him stupid money.

Where did you get this information from? They Yankees system is pretty decent and I'd bet that even at the time of the trade deadline (when Toronto had a lot more prospects) that both systems were very close to each other.

Just my opinion.

And you pretty much just confirmed by belief by saying 'when Toronto had a lot more prospects'

No, no, you misunderstand, I'm comparing both systems to pre-deadline this year, before the Jays gave up a lot of prospects. Comparing them now wouldn't matter, since Toronto gave up so much and wouldn't be ranked that high anymore. Yankees definitely have a better system now but even pre-deadline I'd say both systems were close.

But really, I don't think this is a matter of what you "believe." You might want to look up some actual facts.

 

[Joe S.]

Sure... I'm not going to argue... it was just an opinion I've kind of heard, I'm not going to lie and said I looked into it.

 

[Andy07]

Just looked it up: Baseball Prospectus had Jays 3rd in AL and Yankees 4th. Bleacher Report had Jays 14 overall and Yankees 15th (this was from early June this year). Worst I have seen is Yankees ranked 18th overall (from March this year). Nothing special but certainly not a barren system.

 

[Joe S.]

ok I stand corrected.

 

[Andy07]

ok I stand corrected.

No problem I was seriously just curious; I had thought NY had been pretty strong in drafting for a bit.

I do agree that the Yanks might offer something ridiculous for Price that Toronto can't/won't match. He would be a huge piece in Toronto, I'd love to see Tor scoop him up long-term regardless of cost.

 

[Nik]

I think part of the problem is the yankees are barren of prospects. So their chance at price will be in November when they offer him stupid money.

One of the MLB channel analysts, I forget which but not an ex-player, was one of the dissenting voices when everyone else was heaping praise on the Jays moves for two reasons. One, he said that he thought the Jays were too far back for this to be the right time to go all in and two that none of the moves were especially good value moves, AA didn't really get any good deals, the Jays were just willing to part with a number and level of prospects that other teams weren't.

That's probably true about the Yankees. They have some very good prospects(Luis Severino and Aaron Judge at the top of the list) that were rumoured to be in just about every team's asking price for their top players but the Yankees held off.

Time will tell which approach looks better but I think part of the Yankee's hesitance is what we're seeing in their funk now. They had to know that so much of their offense coming from a 35 year old 1B and 40 year old DH wasn't all that sustainable and so they really couldn't trade away their MLB-ready prospects the way the Jays could.

 

[Nik]

Kind of interesting:

According to bWAR, Kevin Pillar actually grades out as the second most valuable Blue Jay this year.

Josh Donaldson 6.2
Kevin Pillar 3.3
Jose Bautista 2.9
Russell Martin 2.7
Devon Travis 2.5

Most of that comes from his defense, he's over 2 wins there, and fWAR doesn't have him anywhere near as high but he's certainly grading out pretty highly in certain defensive metrics.

 

[Andy07]

Kind of interesting:

According to bWAR, Kevin Pillar actually grades out as the second most valuable Blue Jay this year.

Josh Donaldson 6.2
Kevin Pillar 3.3
Jose Bautista 2.9
Russell Martin 2.7
Devon Travis 2.5

Most of that comes from his defense, he's over 2 wins there, and fWAR doesn't have him anywhere near as high but he's certainly grading out pretty highly in certain defensive metrics.

Yea he's an interesting case. He's made some outstanding defensive plays and some outstandingly awful ones. Today was a great example. He dove for a ball we was nowhere near and turned a single into a triple, allowing a run from 1st to score. I've seen him do that 3 times this year. I'm not sure how WAR would calculate a play like that but I don't imagine it affects his WAR as negatively (if, at all) as it should. But it also goes to show how fickle that stat is. Pillar at 3.3 is a joke.

 

[Nik]

I'm not sure how WAR would calculate a play like that but I don't imagine it affects his WAR as negatively (if, at all) as it should.

But I think that just shows where WAR's value is and why the sort of eyeballing you're talking about is ineffective. I've seen Mike Trout and Adam Jones do stupid things that cost their teams runs in Center Field too. So the issue isn't "Does Kevin Pillar occasionally make mistakes in the field" but rather "How often does he make them relative to other outfielders".

His ranking where he does by dWAR just indicates that either it's not all that often or that the exceptional plays he makes counterbalances that pretty effectively, either of which would line up with my own interpretation of his defensive play this year.

 

[Arn]

WAR. What is it good for?

 

[TML fan]

WAR. What is it good for?

Quite a bit, apparently?

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

WAR. What is it good for?

Quite a bit, apparently?

Not according to Edwin Starr.

 

[Frank E]

WAR. What is it good for?

Quite a bit, apparently?

Not according to Edwin Starr.

Bruce Springsteen agreed.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I'm not sure how WAR would calculate a play like that but I don't imagine it affects his WAR as negatively (if, at all) as it should.

But I think that just shows where WAR's value is and why the sort of eyeballing you're talking about is ineffective. I've seen Mike Trout and Adam Jones do stupid things that cost their teams runs in Center Field too. So the issue isn't "Does Kevin Pillar occasionally make mistakes in the field" but rather "How often does he make them relative to other outfielders".

His ranking where he does by dWAR just indicates that either it's not all that often or that the exceptional plays he makes counterbalances that pretty effectively, either of which would line up with my own interpretation of his defensive play this year.

I'm sure RF's hit better across the league than CFs too. Say Bautista played CF and played the same quality of defense that he plays now at CF, his WAR would likely be greater than 2.9, or 3.3.

 

[cabber24]

Reyes cleared waivers... yankees interested?

http://www.tsn.ca/report-rockies-ss-reyes-clears-waivers-1.345488

That would be new dynamic to this weekend series.

 

[L K]

It would honestly be a downgrade at the position for them IMO.  Reyes probably improves slightly on Gregorius' offense but it's a downgrade defensively at a key position and I doubt that he provides enough for the Yankees to be truly interested in him.