About Karlsson for Norris, while I don't think he'll win it, he would definitely get my vote.
No one has dominated the competition offensively like this since Paul Coffey. He's 23 points ahead of the second place defenseman in scoring, he's got over 50% more points than Brian Campbell. He's tied for 6th in the league in scoring with Phil Kessel. He would be the leading scorer on 24 teams in the league. He's +15 on a team that has a +3 goal differential. He's also not just racking up power play points. He has 40 points at even strength, and the only defenseman in the league that has more total points than he has ESP is Brian Campbell.
Mike Green was a finalist in 09/10 when he was tied for 20th in league scoring, on far and away the highest scoring team in the league, behind three forwards that combined for 294 points. Erik Karlsson is better defensively than Mike Green was, and has Jason Spezza, and that's about it.
Karlsson is 11th in the league in Time on Ice per game, and matches up against the opponent's top line every game. He's among the best in the league at using his speed and stick defensively, while not a very reliable stat, he's also far and away leading all defensemen in takeaways. He's great at creating turnovers by breaking up the rush. Even when he makes mistakes, he generally recovers. In the last little while, he's caught up to both Kovalchuk and Pominville to prevent scoring opportunities when they were on clean breakaways. He also shows flashes of defensive brilliance like when he dominated 6'7" Brian Boyle physically all game against the Rangers a while ago.
The knocks against him are related to his youth and size, he's not a Weber or Chara in his own zone. Once the opponent establishes a forecheck and gets a cycle going, he's out of his element. He's generally not going to be able to rub a guy out or clear the crease.
He also doesn't kill penalties. He's shown he can do it well, like he did in the last half of last season, but he really only goes out in the dying seconds of penalty kills now. It's a smart coaching move, he's already playing over 25 minutes a game, why would you waste the best offensive defenseman in the league killing penalties? But it is still true that penalty killing is one facet of the game for defenseman that he simply doesn't do. Although, Pavel Datsyuk won the Selke without killing penalties, so it's not out of the question.
His age, obviously, will also hurt his chances. The Norris especially is an award that generally goes to veterans who have a record of consistency and a reputation for elite play. While his age makes what he's doing all that more impressive, it doesn't help him win the award as best all-around defenseman.
I think Weber will probably take it, but Karlsson will be at least a finalist.
