bustaheims said:
cw said:
It's great to talk about cap space but what assets of value are left to throw into the trade market on a team on the fringes of fighting for a wild card spot, with Nylander unsigned, that is legitimately questionable whether they should be having a fire sale? They sure as heck don't resemble anything close to a Cup contender right now. They can reliably muster a good top 6 and one pretty good dman. After that, it gets murky.
This team is a ways away from it being ?legitimately questionable? whether they should be having a fire sale. Even after this downturn, they?re still 10th in the league in terms of P%.
For starters, I'd refer you to this post by Nik:
https://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php/topic,6914.msg490668.html#msg490668
Let's look at the potential of Cup winning goaltending:
Our starter for this season and last just cleared waivers and is off to the AHL
Our backup and great hope is injured - he has a history of getting hurt. He's only played 30 NHL games in his lifetime spread over 3 seasons. He's only played 32 pro games once in a season since college (the other seasons less) and he is facing up to 28 NHL playoff games to win a Cup.
His backup cleared waivers to start the season and is almost 34 - more prone to injury.
And now we have Hildebeast about to play his first NHL game.
Which one of those guys is going to skate around the rink with a Cup over his head this spring?
I do not think it is unfair to suggest that on goaltending alone, it is a pretty big stretch to expect a parade. When Ken Dryden did it as a rookie, he was surrounded by about 10 Hall of Famers with about 3 of them on defense. I don't count anything close to 10 Hall of Famers on this roster (Matthews is likely and then a few maybes).
This team is currently roughly on pace for the 2nd worst GAA for a Leafs team since 1992 (near the end of the offensive era). It is not all on Samsonov. There is something else wrong. Who are the top 4 in this group who will get their names engraved on the Cup? Rielly. After that it gets iffy. McCabe-Brodie looked great during the last part of last season but got run over in the playoffs. Liljegren? Top 4 on a Cup winner? I'm not sure. I wish they were. They lack offense from the back end. They lack physicality. Some weakness on the PK. I don't think that is a D that can win a Cup. And I'm not sure they're one dman away as that dman would probably have to be the second coming of Chris Pronger or someone like that to flirt with it.
There is little question that they have a great two forward lines. That is what has been carrying them. But after that, it gets iffy. There are holes or issues. One could argue every team has 'holes' but this team has more than last year or more than the real contenders.
To improve the team, they have to give something to get something. With the prospect cupboard and draft picks stripped down from past, arguably premature deadline deals, they're facing some very tough decisions. Everyone will want their top prospects or 1st rounders to try to fill the D and the other holes.
And they're trying to do this when they don't know where Nylander is playing next season.
I think there could be a quality debate on which way to go. It is a good question. If they shoot their wad this year, what are they going to do next year? If you trade young assets, you are mortgaging the future to help you in the present. They are getting ever closer to where they are really stuck. They won't be able to attract UFAs because there are no prospects coming to help them with their cap to remain competitive.
If they're not going to re-sign Nylander, it might be a good time to cut their losses and get what they can for him.
If they do re-sign Nylander, maybe taking their lumps this season helps them get assets to help them next season and beyond for a couple of more serious shots rather than blowing them to get out of the deeper talent hole they're in now.
We can cling to their pts win% but that team just got beat by the three worst pts win% teams in the conference. When you see that, I don't think it is outrageous to question that there is something more deeply wrong with this group. It is not the sort of thing you expect to see from a true Cup contender.
Here's another disturbing stat: Leafs team GAA 3.44. Average regular season GAA for a Cup winner is 2.49 since 2007 and the worst is 2.90 (Wash Caps).
For the "let's blame it all on Samsonov" camp, Woll's GAA is 2.80. In the last 17 years, average Cup winning goalie's regular season GAA is 2.27. 2.45 over the last 7 years when scoring seemed to rise. Only one goalie had a worse GAA than Woll's 2.80 and won a Cup: Holtby in 2018. His team had a similar defensive problem to the Leafs. So, there's a sliver of a chance but Woll doesn't have Holtby's experience or as good of a prior record. I'd call Woll at this juncture a real long shot at best. Upgrade the team D and Woll returns with no negative effects from the IR and his chances could improve. But he's still probably on the outside looking in. (edit: poorly phrased GAA is a measure of the team D plus Woll - not Woll himself - this distinguishes the team from Samsonov)
I think it is a very fair question as to whether one mortgages a bunch of the future on this group. Before committing to anything like that, I'd want to know Nylander's future, have a better sense of what the young goalies and prospects offer and have some insight on what help the team might be able to get on the UFA market this summer. Until you know those things or things like them, you can't make a definitive call. But if someone had a gun to my head to make a decision now, I'd have a fire sale and look at taking a better shot next season.
