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Oilers @ Leafs - Dec. 13th, 7:00pm - SN

cw said:
His skating speed dropped him from 65th percentile to below 50th. He now loses more races to the puck than he wins.

Comparing this season to 2021-22 to 2023-24 (the 3 seasons before his more recent injury that includes prior injury)
Hits/60 is down 38%
Giveaways/60 is up 59%
Takeaways/60 is down 65%

He's playing like a guy who is avoiding/minimizing/reducing physical engagement (bad back? bad shoulder? bad something physical). Come playoff time, it is a liability. Opposing coach "hit the snot out of Matthews - he's playing hurt"

But we don't need the stats. Just watching him - he's not the same player. At this juncture, this long into his recovery, beyond the odd game, it has to be unlikely he ever will be again.
Click to expand...

In another thread, I mentioned these stats as a sign of decline for Matthews. I think a lot of Leaf fans are holding out hope that somehow it's fixable. If you point to coaching style, linemate adjustment, captaincy, or mental adjustment, that tends to feel like there is hope that a change can bring back the old Matthews. His shot speed and skating speed are the big ones. Those probably aren't coming back, and I think those are what were differentiators for him.

It's too bad, because for a while there it looked like he was going to be otherworldly. The Leafs version of MacKinnon, or McDavid. Now he's in that 2nd or 3rd tier of players below those guys.
 
There's always hope lol. Remember Wendel Clark...great first 2 years, then struggled with injuries for about 6 years before exploding for 46 goals in 93-94. Of course, playing with Doug Gilmour didn't hurt. Problem is, this team doesn't have a Doug Gilmour.
 
cw said:
His skating speed dropped him from 65th percentile to below 50th. He now loses more races to the puck than he wins.

Comparing this season to 2021-22 to 2023-24 (the 3 seasons before his more recent injury that includes prior injury)
Hits/60 is down 38%
Giveaways/60 is up 59%
Takeaways/60 is down 65%

He's playing like a guy who is avoiding/minimizing/reducing physical engagement (bad back? bad shoulder? bad something physical). Come playoff time, it is a liability. Opposing coach "hit the snot out of Matthews - he's playing hurt"

But we don't need the stats. Just watching him - he's not the same player. At this juncture, this long into his recovery, beyond the odd game, it has to be unlikely he ever will be again.
Click to expand...
The hits is a dead giveaway to a chronic issue and as many of us think it's his back. A shoulder doesn't effect his skating. A bad back has an effect on everything. For all we know it could be multiple injuries. Gives me Mike Bossy vibes.
 
Chris said:
There's always hope lol. Remember Wendel Clark...great first 2 years, then struggled with injuries for about 6 years before exploding for 46 goals in 93-94. Of course, playing with Doug Gilmour didn't hurt. Problem is, this team doesn't have a Doug Gilmour.
Click to expand...
Matthews is the closest thing we have to Dougie.
 
The most concerning thing is that he doesn't seem to get bounce backs with time off. He hasn't come into the season looking faster. He missed time during the season this year and while there have been flashes of "vintage" Matthews, it's just moments and still not anywhere near the norm.

They are either avoiding surgery for stupid reasons (like the Olympics) or its just not an option that is going to fix his career. It sucks. He'll still set franchise records but we are getting robbed of an all time great at this point.
 
L K said:
The most concerning thing is that he doesn't seem to get bounce backs with time off. He hasn't come into the season looking faster. He missed time during the season this year and while there have been flashes of "vintage" Matthews, it's just moments and still not anywhere near the norm.

They are either avoiding surgery for stupid reasons (like the Olympics) or its just not an option that is going to fix his career. It sucks. He'll still set franchise records but we are getting robbed of an all time great at this point.
Click to expand...
Yeah, like instead of being MacKinnon, he's Nik Suzuki.
 
It will be interesting to see how he performs both during the olympics and then during the rest of the season.
 
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