The whole year has been like that. The injuries, the listless performances. I haven't seen a year like this before, at least not a year where they were supposed to be good, things like this just keep happening.
Oilers @ Leafs - Dec. 13th, 7:00pm - SN
- Thread starter CarltonTheBear
- Start date
The whole year has been like that. The injuries, the listless performances. I haven't seen a year like this before, at least not a year where they were supposed to be good, things like this just keep happening.
In this case, it was literally an ass blocker.
lamajama
Well-known member
Umm. Yeah. Freudian type?
Guru Tugginmypuddah
Well-known member
You started it!!!!
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
They're not supposed to be good this year. Many predicted a fall back especially after losing Marner and it's happened. No surprise really. Add in all the injuries so far and it's a recipe for disaster.
Guru Tugginmypuddah
Well-known member
The good news is, they are five points out of first in the Atlantic.
The bad news is, they are 3 points of last in the Atlantic.
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
Berube should be fired immediately. We all know 88 was a no show because he was sick and Berube admitted it in his presser so WTF is he even playing and Maccelli sitting in the pressbox? Add in why put him on L2, which essentially killed that line, instead of leaving that line as it was last game? Leave L1, L2, L4 the same and the only sub is McMann, Maccelli with Joshua.
I think that generally people thought that with the goaltending that they had and a return to form of Matthews, along with still having Nylander and Tavares they would still be top 3 in the Atlantic, and pretty much a lock to make the playoffs. I don't think many people expected them to be lifeless through the first 15 games or so.
Given how Matthews performed last season after he returned, Matthews "return to form" this season was questionable. Leafs fans and his team hoped he would. But it wasn't something we could be sure of. Aside from that, the collective talent on this roster has under achieved. The top 7 D and 2 goalies are the same. Most of the top 9 forwards returned. An overlooked aspect was they did not replace a perennial Selke forward candidate patrolling their ice for 21+ mins per game. That has hurt them defensively.
To match last years 108 pts (4th), they have to play .735 hockey the rest of the way - which would be the second highest points win% in the league right now. I see little chance of that happening. At the start of the season, I figured they would finish around 10th (as did many others). After their poor start and injuries (to be expected to some extent with an older roster), they might be in a fight to make the playoffs - which they could lose. I wasn't expecting that.
I was mostly just replying to the "They're not supposed to be good this year" comment. I think that is more of a recalibration based on what has happened.
Hockey doesn't use WAR as much as baseball due to the nature of the sports, but surely you could at least eyeball the number of wins that you lose because of Marner. Let's say Marner was responsible for 7 wins above replacement last year. That's 14 points. So instead of 108, they get 94. That should still put them into a playoff spot, provided they get the same goaltending and relative performances from other members of the team. So even if Matthews played like he did last year, they still had a decent shot at a playoff spot. If Matthews rebounded, then you'd be even better off.
Now we are roughly a third through the season, and this team started on shaky ground, has rebounded a little bit, but that start has put them in a precarious position because they might not have the talent to pull themselves out of it. They are currently on pace for 87.2 points. That's another 3 - 4 wins you could attribute to the loss of Marner I suppose, but at that point you are saying that Marner was responsible for 10 - 11 wins of the Leafs 52 wins last year. I guess it's possible that he is that good, and he was responsible for 20% of the Leafs wins last year. To me that would say that Berube or Treliving are worse than we thought, and I already thought they weren't the right people for this team.
Joe S.
Moderator
They put 3 by him. Not exactly championahip calibre.
That being said I'm pretty much at 80% checked out on this team.
It was a pun. Jarry - jarring. Yeah, I'm a 5 year old.
L K
Well-known member
The problem is our better streak of play has still been mired with mediocre performance. Nylander has been garbage all season outside of his skill allowing him to put up points. Tavares was great when Matthews was out but has been kind of a dogs breakfast the last few weeks. Matthews is just a good player now. He isn't a superstar anymore and for what we are getting he's probably a good 4+ million bucks overpaid
Rielly has stunk all year. OEL is probably the biggest bright spot on the season outside of Hildeby/Woll.
The flu absolutely has something to do with the dreadful 3rd period but there was a lot of bad play in the first two periods as well. You can't give a pass to this game when they blow games against San Jose and Montreal as well.
Rielly has stunk all year. OEL is probably the biggest bright spot on the season outside of Hildeby/Woll.
The flu absolutely has something to do with the dreadful 3rd period but there was a lot of bad play in the first two periods as well. You can't give a pass to this game when they blow games against San Jose and Montreal as well.
Trying to get it down to Marner's departure cost them x number of games makes my head hurt. I think they miss him particularly on the PP and defensively but beyond that, I wouldn't want to try to quantify it. There are too many other variables like Matthews not being the same player, injuries, easier schedule to start the season, competitive balance, other players replaced by new players, etc
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
They def miss Marner on the PP and defensively. They also miss his puck possession skills. We can also without question, despite Matthews' injury issues, conclude that his point production has definitely suffered without 16. We can also not ignore that 34s defensive responsibilities have grown substantially without him. 88, 11, 74, 19, 89 are not remotely close to Marner away from the puck.
So how many games has it cost them? Who knows but it's had a major effect on the team and especially L1.