What's wrong with Auston Matthews?

[dappleganger]

If you asked me 12 months ago whether the Leafs should entertain moving Matthews I would have hit you in the head.

Mats Sundin being the franchise record holder in goals/points because no-one stays here sucks. We have FIVE players who have played 1000 games for the Maple Leafs.

But I really just don't see a way where this franchise is able to retool quickly. The mismanagement by Lou, Dubas, Shanahan and Treliving has been pure incompetence.

The drafting from this organization after Auston Matthews has been pathetic

2017 - Liljegren and noone
2018 - Sandin, Durzi, Holmberg (pretty decent)
2019 - Robertson and noone
2020 - No-one (RIP Amirov)
2021 - Knies
2022 - Minten, Hildeby, Grebenkin
2023 - Cowan
2024 - Noone
2025 - No-one

If it wasn't a first or second round pick, the Leafs did nothing with them. Only Cowan, Knies, Hildeby and Robertson are even in the organization. It's just incompetence left and right.

I compared the Leafs to Vegas during the GDT:

Hertl + 2 3rds for 2025 1st + David Edstrom (2023 1st)
Noah Hanifin (75% retained) for a 1st + 3rd + 5th and Daniil Miramanov (undrafted)
Jack Eichel + 3rd for Alex Tuck, Payton Krebs + 1st + 2nd

All of Vegas's 1st round pick trades have led to them acquiring guys with term or guys who they sign to contract extensions. All three players are impact players.

The Leafs 1st round pick trades have amounted to:

Laughton (nice player but he's a bottom 6 forward who can stretch into the top 6) we gave up a 1st + Grebenkin
- Points aren't everything but Grebenkin has 3G 7A for 10P in 37GP for Philly. Laughton has 8G 2A 10P in 35GP for Toronto.
- I take Laughton over Grebenkin 1000 times out of 10 but 10 points is not acceptable production for a guy who cost a 1st round pick.

Carlo for a 1st + Minten
- 13G 13A 26P +17 for Boston.....F&$*( You Treliving

McCabe + Lafferty for a 1st + 2nd + bit parts
- Solid trade. Exactly the kind of thing you should be looking to use your 1st round picks for

O'Reilly + Acciari for a 1st + 2nd + 3rd + 5th
- On its own not bad. The right kind of acquisition but this was a move that needed to come with a contract extension

Nick Foligno for a 1st + 2 4ths
- Eh, Foligno was not remotely worth a 1st round pick. His back was bothering him before the trade and his back exploded right after we acquired him.

5 1st round picks have the Leafs sitting with McCabe + Carlo + Laughton. That's just pathetic asset management.

That 2020 draft was just abysmal.

Nick Foligno had 7 goals in 42 games before the Leafs acquired him and the Leafs got 0 goals in return for the 1st round pick they gave up for him. It was just a horrible move at the time and ended up just as that.

One thing to keep in mind, part of the high prices the Leafs paid in the Laughton and Carlo trades was for cap retention. It's just another example of mismanagement, this time of the cap instead of players or picks.

 

[Arn]

The problem is Matthews' best years are likely behind him and he's injury prone. If he was rock solid like Sid or Ovi then sure, but you have to wonder if his health can remain. They also don't have a lot of time on his contract and he's already turning 29 this year. When does the decline happen in earnest? 33? 34? Will we really be able to retool around him when he probably has 5 good years left? Unfortunately they've wasted the best years of the best players the franchise has ever seen.

Think I can agree with your concerns about best years and health and having wasted those. But even if he can remain a ~40 goal scorer on a "average" year and maybe still touch 50 on an "up" year, if you can surround him with a better cast I think he can remain a top tier talent, especially as I think he'll always be good defensively which is something you could argue an Ovie isn't.

 

[Zee]

What a dark timeline

 

[L K]

We can trade guys. We can rebuild around a handful of players but I'm just struggling to see how you make that happen with this free agency pool.

If the Leafs are trying to stay as a playoff threat/contender but rebuild the cupboards at the same time I'm assuming they are trading essentially every free agent. Bobby McMann should have trade value. Laughton should have trade value. RFAs like Robertson and Macceli will have some value but won't net massive returns. Stecher probably returns something which is free after waiver pickup. Benoit is probably in that should have no value but a GM will stupidly overpay for physical defensman nonsense. Myers and Jarnkrok have no value.

If you move onto the guys with some term left. Joshua is having a better year than last year but after sitting out for 2 months how much more value will he have. Do the Leafs get a 3rd instead of the 4th they gave up? Roy probably has some reasonable value with another year but I would keep if we are retooling. OEL is probably in a sell high situation. He also has a Modified NTC so that might limit options. McCabe I would hang on to if we are retooling. If we rebuild then absolutely tear it down. Carlo. If an offer comes along I think you jump on it but I can't see his value being great right now.

Trading a goalie. I'm fine with it. We need to move one before waivers become an issue next year anyway. At the same time Minnesota is apparently swinging Wallstedt around so at best we are offering the second best goalie on the market and right now Stolarz (my choice to trade) has been dreadful this year.

So who do we replace these guys with:

Top Forwards: Panarin, Schmaltz, Ovechkin, Tuch, Malkin, Giroux, Eberle, Johansson, Mantha, Kane, Zuccarello, Tolvanen, Lee, Bunting, McMann, Tarasenko, Perry, Arvidsson, Perron, Haula, Jenner, JVR, Olofsson, E Kane, Marchment, Bjorkstrand, Sherwood, Roslovic

Top Defence: Raddysh, Carlson, Andersson, Burns, Blankenburg, Klingberg, Shea, Stanley, Cole, Jensen

Where are the upgrades on the roster when you look at those players. We sure as hell don't have them in the AHL and while there are some ok pieces hitting the market, a bunch will sign before free agency and we aren't going to be the most competitive option for a lot of the others. I just don't see where you fix this in 1-2 years.