Penguins vs. Leafs - Nov. 29th, 7:00pm - SN
- Thread starter CarltonTheBear
- Start date
Guru Tugginmypuddah
Well-known member
WOOHOOOO!!! #WINNING
barney_rebel
Well-known member
We rule btw
ZBBM
Well-known member
yes. winning, good
Guru Tugginmypuddah
Well-known member
Leafs breathing down the Panthers neck.
Guilt Trip
Well-known member
I heard/read somewhere that Berube took the reigns off. Go out and play. Don't know if it was true but they sure played that way.
GhostofPotvin29
Well-known member
Really? To me they still got dominated in shots, attempts, scoring chances, etc, even when score adjusted. Pittsburgh’s goalies were brutal. I did not think that game reflected the score. And that’s against what I think is a very meh team. Can’t keep playing like this against better teams.
Guru Tugginmypuddah
Well-known member
They looked like they were just playing, not trying to make it look a certain way.
herman
Well-known member
Standard's very low right now, I guess.
I don't think any of the Leaf goals were particularly unearned, with reasonably good process getting to the scoring chances. Couple of possession entries extending to skilled looks, couple of grindier plays and opportunistic shots.
Didn't see big time clench-worthy attempts against where Hildeby truly bailed them out beyond the ordinary.
GhostofPotvin29
Well-known member
Hopefully it’ll at least give them some confidence and it will translate into what I think is a more sustainable way of playing/winning.
dekedastardly
Member
McMann, Roy & Joshua should be a solid trio every night.
Redleaf
Well-known member
Well well.
I guess there is still a surprise or two left in this season.
L K
Well-known member
Honestly it felt like the broadcast was actively rooting for Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh shoots the puck wide and Simpson was having an orgasm lover how close it was. It slanted the way the game was being called in a pretty blatant way in my eyes.
4EVRLEAFAN
Active member
But is it the start of something good, or a one hit wonder. We shall see...lol
herman
Well-known member
Sorry for this essay in advance.
My eyes and memory certainly aren't perfect, so there's definitely value in the statsheet aggregate, but those xG numbers aren't capturing pre-shot quality, just shot attempt location. I'm certainly not saying the Leafs are doing well this season, but there are some good signs as they've returned to a bit of health, and made adjustments to how they play instead of forcing a certain template.
I saw some fans commenting sarcastically that the near 40% shooting percentage sure is sustainable or that the Pens goalies shat the bed; I say the types of plays the Leafs scored on (and missed a couple of) were some of the highest danger type of plays and the goalies had only luck left to stop them; and they're generally translate to playoff scoring as well. I think Nylander could've had 3 primary assists tonight but the shooters lost the handle, which are highly dangerous looks that don't show up on the sheet, similar to Mantha shanking his one open look of the game early on. OZ turnovers, passes from behind the net, passes that change lanes into one-timers, rush chances, high slot tips all have elevated average shooting percentages relative to the recorded shot attempt locations, which is xG's primary factor.
OEL: broken pass right in front of the goalie in the slot, landing right back on OEL's stick, with defenses and goalie all moving the wrong direction is essentially an OZ turnover. So easy. Not always exactly repeatable, but that's what putting the puck on net is supposed to do: cause chaos, make defenses turn around and force decisions.
Cowan: The play starts with transition with possession through the NZ and Willy's touch pass to Tavares coming through between checks; he loses the handle when he tries to 1v1 but Rielly wins the race to a 50/50 wall puck and rims it against the grain. Cowan sends a surefire slot pass from behind the net for a one-timer to the hottest shooter on the Leafs and Willy fakes it right back to a wide open Cowan. That should be the template for one of their set PP plays and they pull it off at 5v5.
McMann: win a forecheck, cycle to the top, fire a shot on net through traffic. Simplest play in the book. Highly repeatable as long as they skate with purpose. Good double screen, so even if the first tip missed, there are 4 more limbs and two more sticks to muck up trajectories; rebound potential for one of the better rebound cleaners in Joshua available as well.
Joshua: the No-Look Hook shot is not always going to go in, but this was another broken pass in the slot. Essentially the same effect as a turnover, generated by strong board effort by Joshua earlier to again, cycle the puck to the point and the Leafs pump the puck to the net.
Roy: Domi wins a puck race against Jarry on the PP and sends his usual auto-slot pass from behind the net. Inherently this is a hella dangerous play against set defenses, let alone one that was already skating out of the zone, and Roy beats his check to get the shot into the open net.
Matthews: This one is a relatively standard 2v2 rush drop pass, and Matthews finally activates his skillset and uses his deceptive, accurate release to pick on the goalie's slowest body part. This is not really a system-repeatable thing, but it's why Matthews is paid the big bucks.
Robertson: made Dumba look dumb by timing his stick approach just as Dumba was turning with the puck farthest from his body. Not precisely repeatable but OZ turnovers in general eat goalies up. Robertson's stick lie is kind of crazy (because the stick is also hilariously long for his size) so he's almost always snapping it along the ice off the heel, unless he has time to lean on a wrister or wind up a one-timer.
My eyes and memory certainly aren't perfect, so there's definitely value in the statsheet aggregate, but those xG numbers aren't capturing pre-shot quality, just shot attempt location. I'm certainly not saying the Leafs are doing well this season, but there are some good signs as they've returned to a bit of health, and made adjustments to how they play instead of forcing a certain template.
I saw some fans commenting sarcastically that the near 40% shooting percentage sure is sustainable or that the Pens goalies shat the bed; I say the types of plays the Leafs scored on (and missed a couple of) were some of the highest danger type of plays and the goalies had only luck left to stop them; and they're generally translate to playoff scoring as well. I think Nylander could've had 3 primary assists tonight but the shooters lost the handle, which are highly dangerous looks that don't show up on the sheet, similar to Mantha shanking his one open look of the game early on. OZ turnovers, passes from behind the net, passes that change lanes into one-timers, rush chances, high slot tips all have elevated average shooting percentages relative to the recorded shot attempt locations, which is xG's primary factor.
OEL: broken pass right in front of the goalie in the slot, landing right back on OEL's stick, with defenses and goalie all moving the wrong direction is essentially an OZ turnover. So easy. Not always exactly repeatable, but that's what putting the puck on net is supposed to do: cause chaos, make defenses turn around and force decisions.
Cowan: The play starts with transition with possession through the NZ and Willy's touch pass to Tavares coming through between checks; he loses the handle when he tries to 1v1 but Rielly wins the race to a 50/50 wall puck and rims it against the grain. Cowan sends a surefire slot pass from behind the net for a one-timer to the hottest shooter on the Leafs and Willy fakes it right back to a wide open Cowan. That should be the template for one of their set PP plays and they pull it off at 5v5.
McMann: win a forecheck, cycle to the top, fire a shot on net through traffic. Simplest play in the book. Highly repeatable as long as they skate with purpose. Good double screen, so even if the first tip missed, there are 4 more limbs and two more sticks to muck up trajectories; rebound potential for one of the better rebound cleaners in Joshua available as well.
Joshua: the No-Look Hook shot is not always going to go in, but this was another broken pass in the slot. Essentially the same effect as a turnover, generated by strong board effort by Joshua earlier to again, cycle the puck to the point and the Leafs pump the puck to the net.
Roy: Domi wins a puck race against Jarry on the PP and sends his usual auto-slot pass from behind the net. Inherently this is a hella dangerous play against set defenses, let alone one that was already skating out of the zone, and Roy beats his check to get the shot into the open net.
Matthews: This one is a relatively standard 2v2 rush drop pass, and Matthews finally activates his skillset and uses his deceptive, accurate release to pick on the goalie's slowest body part. This is not really a system-repeatable thing, but it's why Matthews is paid the big bucks.
Robertson: made Dumba look dumb by timing his stick approach just as Dumba was turning with the puck farthest from his body. Not precisely repeatable but OZ turnovers in general eat goalies up. Robertson's stick lie is kind of crazy (because the stick is also hilariously long for his size) so he's almost always snapping it along the ice off the heel, unless he has time to lean on a wrister or wind up a one-timer.