Marner to Vegas is finally happening

[cw]

If the GM not making him a priority is enough to get him to want to leave, he never really wanted to stay.

If the team and GM didn’t value him, they wouldn’t have offered him $13M+ to stay here.

Priority wasn't the reason on its own. It was alleged from years before that there had been a grievance that Marner was not treated the same as Matthews & Nylander. The failure to declare him a priority like Treliving had for the other two would add fuel to that alleged grievance. It is a fact that Treliving declared Matthews & Nylander a priority and did not do so for Marner.

But beyond the lack of declaring Marner a priority (which members of the media noticed), the disclosure by the GM that he was exploring other options beyond re-signing Marner fanned the flames of media rumours. It put more media heat on the player for the playoff result because the team wasn't committed to keeping him around like they had Matthews and Nylander. By exclusion, he started to take a bunch of the blame in the media. As those rumours got way out of hand, the GM didn't exactly knock himself out trying to tamp them down or to defend the player. He gave it some lip service but he was quite limited in his efforts.

With both Marner's and his wife's family living here, that would be a little more to handle than whatever 'normal' might be. "95% chance he's gone by September!!!" as one member of the media reported, would have both families asking "what is going on?"

A kicker was that it allegedly really got out of hand. Metropolitan Toronto Police were verbally reported by TSN as guarding his house. I think it was Dreger and then I heard Jeff O'Neill loosely refer to it. I heard them with my own ears. It seemed to slip out and I don't think they wanted it out.
His wife went through pregnancy and then could be going through post partum depression (as many do). Crap like that really doesn't help. It was going too far. When police have to guard your house, maybe it is time to move on ...

You hear it all the time: it is a team sport. You're supposed to get each others back. Marner, their player, was a media piñata. Treliving gave it some token lip service "he's a star". But not the sort of forceful effort to shut the media circus down. He won't get off without some scrutiny. The MLSE board will want to hear how he lost one of their stars for close to nothing.

Dismissing this as merely hurt feelings over failing to name Marner a priority falls way short of what really transpired. It probably contributed to the cascade of what followed but it was far from the sole issue.

 

[Arn]

I was amused by where he stood with the slogan in the background during his Vegas unveiling

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Bourne today called he and his camp the most sensitive group in hockey history and I really don't think that's a stretch. Bourne is not a guy that I think generally speaks hyperbolically, and he did work as part of the Leafs org. That's enough for me, and the additional revisionist history nitpicking at what most players and agents wouldn't consider hard red lines of aggrievement is bordering on lunacy at this point. Give me Point, a lower cap hit, and a non-meddling camp over Marner every day of the week.

There was an article in The Athletic recently that reported that Marner’s camp was still upset about him being put on the 4th line by Babcock YEARS after the fact. That’s just ridiculous.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Priority wasn't the reason on its own. It was alleged from years before that there had been a grievance that Marner was not treated the same as Matthews & Nylander. The failure to declare him a priority like Treliving had for the other two would add fuel to that alleged grievance. It is a fact that Treliving declared Matthews & Nylander a priority and did not do so for Marner.

This is ridiculous. He prioritized the two players whose contracts were up after the 2023-24 season over the one whose deal was up after the 2024-25 season. That’s the perfectly reasonable and correct thing to do.

I swear the things Marner’s camp, and now fans of his, will twist into something negative to happen to Marner is impressive.

 

[bustaheims]

This is ridiculous. He prioritized the two players whose contracts were up after the 2023-24 season over the one whose deal was up after the 2024-25 season. That’s the perfectly reasonable and correct thing to do.

I swear the things Marner’s camp, and now fans of his, will twist into something negative to happen to Marner is impressive.

Also, it's likely - if not certain - that the way he talked about Marner that made him feel like he wasn't a priority is a direct result of Tre's confidence in getting a deal done after having multiple conversations with Marner and his reps. He only had a few weeks on the job when Matthews and Nylander were up for extensions. He had been on the job for more than a full year when Marner became eligible. He had a lot more time to get a feel for what the likely results were. He never seemed to give up - all the reporting suggests he approached Marner's camp multiple times until it became abundantly clear that there was no agreement to be found - while also trying to work with the reality of the situation. Tre's actions made his opinions quite clear, as did Marner's. He had one foot out the door all season. Credit to him for still putting in a full effort - that shows his competitiveness and a level of integrity - but, it was clear early on that he was no longer happy here, despite what he may have said. His actions were much much louder than his words.

 

[Joe S.]

There was an article in The Athletic recently that reported that Marner’s camp was still upset about him being put on the 4th line by Babcock YEARS after the fact. That’s just ridiculous.

Not sure how true this is, but they also mentioned how the Marner group was still pissed that Matthews got rookie bonuses but he didn’t.

Wasn’t that a lamoriello that predated drafting Matthews? I think that was or of lama’s archaic rules.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Not sure how true this is, but they also mentioned how the Marner group was still pissed that Matthews got rookie bonuses but he didn’t.

Wasn’t that a lamoriello that predated drafting Matthews? I thigh that was or of lama’s archaic rules.

That was one of LouLam's rules, no rookie bonus. Matthews being a first overall pick, LouLam conceded to giving him a rookie bonus.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Not sure how true this is, but they also mentioned how the Marner group was still pissed that Matthews got rookie bonuses but he didn’t.

Wasn’t that a lamoriello that predated drafting Matthews? I thigh that was or of lama’s archaic rules.

Yup..Lou told Marner that the Leafs don't do the bonuses for rookies he was looking for and then turned around and gave them all to Matthews. It was 6M difference. The Marner camp got that 6M the next contract. Seems Lou started this disrespect.

 

[herman]

So, outside of Sundin, who would even come close to Marner?

Uh, Matthews? Even Nylander is climbing up there. I don't care nearly as much about assists.

I don't know how anyone can think this makes the Leafs a better team. "all that off-ice stuff?" More players feel important? Serious?

Who cares about space and opportunity when you have one of the most talented players in the league who's still in his 20s? (well, you I suppose.)

Treliving, when hired, noted he wanted more of a team and less emphasis on the Core 4 thing. Berube noted the same thing when hired. Players in exit interviews noted the same thing. The Florida Panthers, upon winning the Cup again, noted that they were a team that did everything together for each other; Paul Maurice put out his 4th line to close out the Cup clinching game, crediting their forecheck for breaking through the Leafs in Gm 3. The Leafs now have room to balance out their depth and build out 3 lines with their 3 main drivers, and pick up gamers who relish the passion and pressure of Toronto.

 

[cabber24]

I think about EDM coming up short with the lack of depth scoring, similar to TOR. I am okay with spreading the cap around if it means more depth. FLD has 11 guys making more than $5M. Depth matters. FLD is a team, not a few stars with filler.

 

[mr grieves]

Yup..Lou told Marner that the Leafs don't do the bonuses for rookies he was looking for and then turned around and gave them all to Matthews. It was 6M difference. The Marner camp got that 6M the next contract. Seems Lou started this disrespect.

With interest!

 

[Bullfrog]

Uh, Matthews? Even Nylander is climbing up there. I don't care nearly as much about assists.



Treliving, when hired, noted he wanted more of a team and less emphasis on the Core 4 thing. Berube noted the same thing when hired. Players in exit interviews noted the same thing. The Florida Panthers, upon winning the Cup again, noted that they were a team that did everything together for each other; Paul Maurice put out his 4th line to close out the Cup clinching game, crediting their forecheck for breaking through the Leafs in Gm 3. The Leafs now have room to balance out their depth and build out 3 lines with their 3 main drivers, and pick up gamers who relish the passion and pressure of Toronto.

My apologies, I was unclear. I was responding to this:

"Talent out the door, yes; I have a different opinion on the level of utility being lost here, but still there is a loss nonetheless. To say it's the best Leaf player being lost for virtually nothing is a stretch, though; maybe you are more flexible than I am."

We haven't lost Matthews or Nylander. And I'll reiterate; not a stretch to say he's the best Leaf player being lost for virtually nothing.

I have absolutely nothing against your arguments over utility, change to the team structure, etc. But you are clearly down-playing the impact of his talent and the void he'll be leaving. The Leafs may go on to win the cup this season; this doesn't mean it's because of Marner's disappearance.

 

[Andy007]

I have absolutely nothing against your arguments over utility, change to the team structure, etc. But you are clearly down-playing the impact of his talent and the void he'll be leaving. The Leafs may go on to win the cup this season; this doesn't mean it's because of Marner's disappearance.

I mean....if the Leafs actually win the Cup this season, wouldn't that undoubtedly mean, in some way, shape or form, it WAS because of his disappearance?

 

[herman]

My apologies, I was unclear. I was responding to this:

"Talent out the door, yes; I have a different opinion on the level of utility being lost here, but still there is a loss nonetheless. To say it's the best Leaf player being lost for virtually nothing is a stretch, though; maybe you are more flexible than I am."

We haven't lost Matthews or Nylander. And I'll reiterate; not a stretch to say he's the best Leaf player being lost for virtually nothing.

I have absolutely nothing against your arguments over utility, change to the team structure, etc. But you are clearly down-playing the impact of his talent and the void he'll be leaving. The Leafs may go on to win the cup this season; this doesn't mean it's because of Marner's disappearance.

Oooh, okay, yeah that makes sense, now that I understand your statement.

I think you're right; biggest net talent drop off sure. But I also think his importance was a bit overstated because of deployment, which seems like a coaching decision, but given everything else we've heard feels like mollification too (so someone doesn't hold it against the org during negotiation later).

PP1, SH1, L1; we will probably miss him the most on 5v5. I think his void re-shapes the way his linemates play, and the downstream effect of that as well. I don't want to underestimate the effect of having some legit carrots to dangle for the rest of the lineup to try to earn playtime for.

 

[mr grieves]

Oooh, okay, yeah that makes sense, now that I understand your statement.

I think you're right; biggest net talent drop off sure. But I also think his importance was a bit overstated because of deployment, which seems like a coaching decision, but given everything else we've heard feels like mollification too (so someone doesn't hold it against the org during negotiation later).

PP1, SH1, L1; we will probably miss him the most on 5v5. I think his void re-shapes the way his linemates play, and the downstream effect of that as well. I don't want to underestimate the effect of having some legit carrots to dangle for the rest of the lineup to try to earn playtime for.

We’ve also heard every coach he’s had, at least since his first couple seasons, be very complimentary of him, talk about him as a “coach’s dream” etc. That’s true of Leafs coaches, tournament coaches, opposing team’s coaches. There’s a disconnect between how he’s perceived by those who would use him in a lineup and your perception of him, both in terms of his on-ice contributions and the attitude/intangibles that nonetheless relate to the team’s on-ice performance. So… What do you make of that?

 

[L K]

So, outside of Sundin, who would even come close to Marner?

I don't know how anyone can think this makes the Leafs a better team. "all that off-ice stuff?" More players feel important? Serious?

Who cares about space and opportunity when you have one of the most talented players in the league who's still in his 20s? (well, you I suppose.)

It is possible that the culture of the dressing room shifts after this. The team truly isn't the core 4 anymore. Now it's Matthews and Nylander with a distantly placed Rielly and Knies as far as cap hits go. I think the notion that the team is better without Marner is asinine because right now on paper we have done essentially nothing to replace him. We haven't converted Marner's departed cap space into something helpful. Roy/Maccelli's cap hits could have been accounted for by getting rid of Kampf/Jarnkrok/Reaves and you would still have "Marner" in the lineup. I would view Maccelli and Roy as an upgrade on Kampf/Jarnkrok but if Maccelli/Roy need to be the Marner replacement this team is going to be drastically worse next year.

OUT: 34G 87A 121P
Marner. 27G 75A 102P
Holmberg 7G 12A 19P

IN: 23G 34A 57P
Matias Maccelli 8G 18A 20P
Nicolas Roy 15G 16A 31P

 

[herman]

We’ve also heard every coach he’s had, at least since his first couple seasons, be very complimentary of him, talk about him as a “coach’s dream” etc. That’s true of Leafs coaches, tournament coaches, opposing team’s coaches. There’s a disconnect between how he’s perceived by those who would use him in a lineup and your perception of him, both in terms of his on-ice contributions and the attitude/intangibles that nonetheless relate to the team’s on-ice performance. So… What do you make of that?

I think he is a coach’s dream (other than not being 6’4” all day), and I think coaches that are trying to win can’t help themselves but overuse him. He’s a one-stop-shop for just about everything a coach wants accomplished on the ice that’s not forecheck-1. I’m not saying he’s not good for all those roles he occupied, but I wanted the team to diversify their deployment while Marner was here. There is a point of diminishing returns and we saw it frequently later in the season and in playoff serieses and the coaches had no other solutions on hand.

Also, knowing that his camp is still complaining about a 4th line shift from 2017, and seeing how effective Marner is when he is playing free and happy, it is in their best interest to just let him be the go to guy (even on the nights it’s not working).

There are 11 other forwards in the lineup. There are decent to good PK effort wingers that don’t cost 11M. One could argue Marner’s role when not playing the D slot on PP was surplus to parts (especially when he was laser focused trying to force passes to one option). Matthews might prefer to have an elite setup man, but when healthy, he truly doesn’t need much setting up to do damage.

Babcock was a buttwipe, but he wasn’t wrong when he said the point is for the team to win, not get a couple of guys a lot of goals.

 

[Bullfrog]

I mean....if the Leafs actually win the Cup this season, wouldn't that undoubtedly mean, in some way, shape or form, it WAS because of his disappearance?

No, it doesn't mean that. There are too many variables and Marner was clearly not the reason the Leafs didn't advance. That is, he didn't cause losses through dumb plays, etc.

I know what you're saying; the void he leaves can't be filled unless the void is first there (Marner gone.) And what fills that void influences the results. But I think that puts too much stock into the Leafs' recent losses. A little bit of luck here and there and the Leafs could have been Stanley cup champs.

I know 6 losses in series-defining games seems brutal, but I believe this team had the talent, the coaching, and the will to win. It's quite possible to flip a coin and get heads 10 times in a row.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

. That is, he didn't cause losses through dumb plays, etc.

I’ll just pull up video of his puck over glass penalty in 2021 Game 6 or his blind backhand up the middle in Game 5 vs Florida

 

[herman]

OUT: 34G 87A 121P
Marner 27G 75A 102P
Holmberg 7G 12A 19P

IN: 23G 34A 57P
Matias Maccelli 8G 18A 20P
Nicolas Roy 15G 16A 31P

+ Healthy Matthews' __ more goals?

Last year, Matthews' injury caused a dip to his shooting percentage to 12.6%, which is still a high-end percentage; the previous 69-goal season he was on a heater for 18.7%, which is his highest but technically not an aberration as he hit 18.5% (2020-21) and 18.2% (2017-18).

Injury plagued 2024-25 Matthews posted 261 shots on goal in 67 games played, which pro-rates to about 319 SOG for 82 games (also incidentally his 3-yr avg number of shots on goal; pro-rates to 353 over 82 games).

Assuming he keeps that exact pace and shoots at his career percentage 15.8% (which includes his injury seasons), that would yield 50G over 82 games. The average number of games he played in the past three full seasons is 74 games, so that'd knock the 50G down to 45 goals.

So a very average Matthews would be another 12 goals on top of last season's injury season (33G). That'll bring up the net scoring balance to 35G in concert with Maccelli and Roy's previous season's numbers. There's also evidence that Maccelli underperformed with the move to Utah (maybe he hates soda), and didn't play in the last quarter of the season, so there's probably 4-7 more goals hiding in there too.