Ranking Prospects 2020-2021

[herman]

PPP's doing a Winter T25U25

2020/21 Eligible:		Winter 2020's list		Summer 2020's list
Adam Brooks Artur Akhtyamov Auston Matthews Axel Rindell Denis Malgin Dmitry Ovchinnikov Eemeli Rasanen Egor Korshkov Filip Hallander Filip Kral Ian Scott JD Greenway Jeremy McKenna* Joe Miller Joey Anderson John Fusco Joseph Duszak Joseph Woll Justin Brazeau** Kalle Loponen Kristians Rubins Mac Hollowell Max Verroneau Mike Koster Mikhail Abramov Mikko Kokkonen Mitch Marner Noel Hoefenmayer*** Nicholas Abruzzese Nicholas Robertson Nikolai Chebykin Pierre Engvall Pontus Holmberg Rasmus Sandin Rodion Amirov Roni Hirvonen Ryan O'Connell Ryan Tverberg Semyon Der-Arguchintsev Semyon Kizimov Timothy Liljegren Topi Niemela Travis Dermott Veeti Miettinen Vladimir Boblyev Vladislav Kara William Nylander William Villeneuve Wyatt Schingoethe		25. Pontus Holmberg 24. Mac Hollowell 23. Filip Kral 22. Veeti Miettinen 21. Artur Akhtyamov 20. Denis Malgin 19. Dmitri Ovchinnikov 18. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 17. Egor Korshkov 16. Nicholas Abbruzzese 15. Pierre Engvall 14. Joey Anderson 13. Mikko Kokkonen 12. Topi Niemela 11. Roni Hirvonen 10. Mikhail Abramov 9. Travis Dermott 8. Filip Hallander 7. Timothy Liljegren 6. Rodion Amirov 5. Nick Robertson 4. Rasmus Sandin 3. William Nylander 2. Mitch Marner 1. Auston Matthews		25. 2020 4th Rd. Pick from Vegas 24. Jesper Lindgren Traded to Pittsburgh Penguins 23. 2020 4th Rd. Pick 22. Mac Hollowell 21. Jeremy Bracco 20. Filip Kral 19. Joseph Duszak 18. Pontus Holmberg 17. Egor Korshkov 16. Denis Malgin 15. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 14. Mikhail Abramov 13. Nick Abruzzese 11. Adam Brooks 11. Mikko Kokkonen 10. 2020 2nd Rd. Pick 9. Pierre Engvall 8. Travis Dermott 7. Timothy Liljegren 6. Kasperi Kapanen Traded to Pittsburgh Penguins 5. Nick Robertson 4. Rasmus Sandin 3. William Nylander 2. Mitch Marner 1. Auston Matthews

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* Jeremy McKenna is on an AHL deal and thus ineligible for this exercise
** Brazeau is on an AHL deal and thus ineligible for this exercise. I've listed him here nonetheless as he gets an honourable mention from PPP.
*** Noel Hoefenmayer is on an AHL deal and thus ineligible for this exercise.

 

[herman]

Original Post
Top 25 under 25 is going to be weird until the draft
Check out last season's thread. As I'm posting this well in advance of the Draft and associated transactions, this post is malleable.

2020 Eligible:		2020's list		2019's list
Adam Brooks Artur Akhtyamov Auston Matthews Axel Rindell Denis Malgin Dmitry Ovchinnikov Eemeli Rasanen Egor Korshkov Filip Hallander Filip Kral Ian Scott JD Greenway Jeremy Bracco Jeremy McKenna* Jesper Lindgren Joe Miller Joey Anderson John Fusco Joseph Duszak Joseph Woll Justin Brazeau** Kalle Loponen Kasperi Kapanen Kristians Rubins Mac Hollowell Max Verroneau Mike Koster Mikhail Abramov Mikko Kokkonen Mitch Marner Noel Hoefenmayer*** Nicholas Abruzzese Nicholas Robertson Nikolai Chebykin Pierre Engvall Pontus Holmberg Rasmus Sandin Rodion Amirov Roni Hirvonen Ryan O'Connell Ryan Tverberg Semyon Der-Arguchintsev Semyon Kizimov Timothy Liljegren Topi Niemela Travis Dermott Veeti Miettinen Vladimir Boblyev Vladislav Kara William Nylander Wyatt Schingoethe		25. 2020 4th Rd. Pick from Vegas 24. Jesper Lindgren Traded to Pittsburgh Penguins 23. 2020 4th Rd. Pick 22. Mac Hollowell 21. Jeremy Bracco 20. Filip Kral 19. Joseph Duszak 18. Pontus Holmberg 17. Egor Korshkov 16. Denis Malgin 15. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 14. Mikhail Abramov 13. Nick Abruzzese 11. Adam Brooks 11. Mikko Kokkonen 10. 2020 2nd Rd. Pick 9. Pierre Engvall 8. Travis Dermott 7. Timothy Liljegren 6. Kasperi Kapanen Traded to Pittsburgh Penguins 5. Nick Robertson 4. Rasmus Sandin 3. William Nylander 2. Mitch Marner 1. Auston Matthews		25. Joseph Duszak 24. Frederik Gauthier old 23. Mason Marchment Traded to Florida Panthers 22. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 21. Egor Korshkov 20. Mikko Kokkonen 19. Adam Brooks 18. Pierre Engvall 17. Ian Scott 16. Joseph Woll 15. Mac Hollowell 14. Ilya Mikheyev old 13. Nic Petan old 12. Jeremy Bracco 11. Nick Robertson 10. Trevor Moore traded to LA Kings 9. Timothy Liljegren 8. Travis Dermott 7. Andreas Johnsson old 6. Rasmus Sandin 5. Alexander Kerfoot old 4. Kasperi Kapanen 3. William Nylander 2. Mitch Marner 1. Auston Matthews

* Jeremy McKenna is on an AHL deal and thus ineligible for this exercise
** Brazeau is on an AHL deal and thus ineligible for this exercise. I've listed him here nonetheless as he gets an honourable mention from PPP.
*** Noel Hoefenmayer is on an AHL deal and thus ineligible for this exercise.

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1. Auston Matthews
2. William Nylander
3. Mitch Marner
4. Nick Robertson
5. Rasmus Sandin
6. Kasperi Kapanen
7. Travis Dermott
8. Timothy Liljegren
9. Nick Abruzzese
10. Egor Korshkov

Without the draft (and even with it), the rest of the list looks pretty terribad.

 

[herman]

22. Mac Hollowell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXqmGV8jeA8
Thought this was Kessel and Lupul for a second

He plays like a rover (he basically was in the OHL) that is learning the ropes of the AHL. He only got a partial season split between Newfoundland and Toronto this past shortened season. He's on the older side of the prospect equation, but for Leaf purposes (offensive D-men), that's kind of okay. If a 4th round pick comes in like 4 years later and gives you two adequate-good NHL seasons and gets traded, that's a very solid turnout.

 

[Bender]

22. Mac Hollowell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QXqmGV8jeA8
Thought this was Kessel and Lupul for a second

He plays like a rover (he basically was in the OHL) that is learning the ropes of the AHL. He only got a partial season split between Newfoundland and Toronto this past shortened season. He's on the older side of the prospect equation, but for Leaf purposes (offensive D-men), that's kind of okay. If a 4th round pick comes in like 4 years later and gives you two adequate-good NHL seasons and gets traded, that's a very solid turnout.

I'm cautiously hopeful for him. I like the way he moves the puck. He's got Kaberle level slickness I think.

 

[herman]

I'm cautiously hopeful for him. I like the way he moves the puck. He's got Kaberle level slickness I think.

He certainly has the qualities that would excel in a Keefe/Dubas style system with a dash of feistiness. A team structure that activates the defense that much, I do kind of want defensemen who can hold the puck and dish or shoot in tight accordingly. I think once he adjusts to the AHL speeds, he'll have the latitude to show off his creativity.

 

[L K]

1. Auston Matthews
2. William Nylander
3. Mitch Marner
4. Nick Robertson
5. Rasmus Sandin
6. Kasperi Kapanen
7. Travis Dermott
8. Timothy Liljegren
9. Nick Abruzzese
10. Egor Korshkov

Without the draft (and even with it), the rest of the list looks pretty terribad.

Unless we hit a bunch of jackpot 7th round picks not having a 1st or 3rd round pick this year hurts.

 

[Highlander]

I'm cautiously hopeful for him. I like the way he moves the puck. He's got Kaberle level slickness I think.

He certainly has the qualities that would excel in a Keefe/Dubas style system with a dash of feistiness. A team structure that activates the defense that much, I do kind of want defensemen who can hold the puck and dish or shoot in tight accordingly. I think once he adjusts to the AHL speeds, he'll have the latitude to show off his creativity.

He certainly has all the tools, he has admitted that "confidence" is his major issue.  Nice they can actually take several years to groom him, without the previous "Leaf rush" and let him develop oodles of it.

 

[herman]

Unless we hit a bunch of jackpot 7th round picks not having a 1st or 3rd round pick this year hurts.

We've been getting pretty good (looking) value from 2nds and 4ths under Dubas. Kind of wonder what the pipeline looks like without Boyle and Plekanec, right (hi Nik!)?

I'm pretty sure one or more of our forwards from the second tier is going to be moved for draft assets or more assured prospects.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

1. Auston Matthews
2. William Nylander
3. Mitch Marner
4. Nick Robertson
5. Rasmus Sandin
6. Kasperi Kapanen
7. Travis Dermott
8. Timothy Liljegren
9. Nick Abruzzese
10. Egor Korshkov

Without the draft (and even with it), the rest of the list looks pretty terribad.

Is Engvall aged out?

 

[herman]

Is Engvall aged out?

He's just outside my top ten, with Abramov, Der-Arguchintsev, and Kokkonen; mostly due to his age (he's Nylander age) and offensive instincts/potential at the NHL level (minimal). Korshkov is the same age, but has more of a nose for the net and playmaking.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Is Engvall aged out?

He's just outside my top ten, with Abramov, Der-Arguchintsev, and Kokkonen; mostly due to his age (he's Nylander age) and offensive instincts/potential at the NHL level (minimal). Korshkov is the same age, but has more of a nose for the net and playmaking.

I suppose if offense is the only consideration for forwards, I can see it. But I would personally have Engvall ahead of Korshkov just for the simple fact that he was on the team last season and actually had an impact.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

1. Auston Matthews
2. William Nylander
3. Mitch Marner
4. Nick Robertson
5. Rasmus Sandin
6. Kasperi Kapanen
7. Travis Dermott
8. Timothy Liljegren
9. Nick Abruzzese
10. Egor Korshkov

Without the draft (and even with it), the rest of the list looks pretty terribad.

I started my list but I got too sad after the top-8. I'd probably swap 2/3 on yours, unless we're taking AAV into consideration which we aren't here.

The Robertson-Sandin-Kapanen block can really go any way. I'm generally "potential in the next few years trumps what the player did last season" when it comes to these lists but even still I might put Kappy over Robertson for now. I'm not sure Robertson's value in the next few years will be much more than "good scoring middle-6 winger" which Kapanen is already at.

I might swap Dermott and Liljegren. Not a popular opinion but I've expressed doubts about Dermott playing in a top-4 role while my fingers are still crossed Liljegren can get there.

After that, who knows. I might go Engvall then Korshkov but if you think Korshkov can play a top-6 role in the next few seasons then I can understand him being over Engvall who despite just finishing his "rookie" season I'm not sure will really grow past the 3rd line.

My next group would probably consist of Malgin, Brooks, Woll, Abruzzese, and Hollowell in some order. Eventually I'd have to place Bracco somewhere.

 

[Kin]

We've been getting pretty good (looking) value from 2nds and 4ths under Dubas. Kind of wonder what the pipeline looks like without Boyle and Plekanec, right (hi Nik!)?

Well, if those picks looked good right now they'd have been attributable to Dubas but if they looked bad they'd be a result of Hunter and Lamoriello giving Dubas a wedgie and not letting him sit at the draft table.

 

[herman]

Harsh but fair words for Bracco today.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Harsh but fair words for Bracco today.

Yeah I think that's about where I would have placed Bracco too. I've basically written him off as a NHLer at this point but I guess being a productive AHLer has it's value too.

I missed yesterday's ranking so I'm surprised to see Hollowell that early. He's absolutely a long-shot to make the NHL but I dunno, I think I would have ranked him over a number of other long-shots that are going to be ranked higher.

 

[Frank E]

I don't know what personal issues he's encountered this year, but I'm not sure it would have mattered if he was trouble-free but couldn't put together a better all-round game.

 

[Highlander]

Clune threw him under a bus and called him Lazy (basically).  Remember Clune was his roommate.  Nuff said.

 

[herman]

Recently ELC?d and previously unranked Filip Kral is today?s prospect.

 

[Bender]

Recently ELC?d and previously unranked Filip Kral is today?s prospect.

I saw a write up about him in The Athletic. Very intriguing prospect, but I've learned to never really get carried away with any prospect unless they're of a generally high pedigree. 

 

[herman]

Recently ELC?d and previously unranked Filip Kral is today?s prospect.

I saw a write up about him in The Athletic. Very intriguing prospect, but I've learned to never really get carried away with any prospect unless they're of a generally high pedigree.

I think it's pretty safe to say there isn't anything to get carried away with here.
However, this ranking on Kral is a good place to speak about Dubas' defenseman drafting and development philosophy because he's pretty much the baseline sample.

Good skaters, ?smart? on the ice, good passers, not much attention to shooting, and mobile

In the OZ: Given the way Keefe wants the defense to activate to the circles when the high forward stretches the defensive box, we're looking for players who can hold the puck without panic, and boldly jump in low against the grain of play and hit an open man with a cross slot feed or cause a decent scramble. We really don't want defensemen shooting all too often north of the circles.

In transition: gap control, killing plays early before the blueline is not easy. Being a good and mobile skater is part of it, but those skills don't mean anything if the brain controlling the skates is still trying to read a play.
Here's a nice quick read on what's good and what isn't:
https://twitter.com/JhanHky/status/1275016749893681152
And here's a great longer look at one of Dubas' top choices (that I've posted previously but it was awhile ago): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3N8HpG_XmU

In the DZ: this needs to be a team effort between D and F in steering play into the safer areas and killing it with numbers. Get the stick on puck first and then skate through their hands and it almost doesn't matter if your players are smaller.