Ranking Prospects 2021-2022

[herman]

PPP: Top 25 under 25

2021/22 Eligible:		2021 T25U25		Winter 2020's list
Alex Steeves Artur Akhtyamov Auston Matthews Axel Rindell Brennan Menell Denis Malgin Dmitry Ovchinnikov Erik Kallgren Filip Hallander traded Filip Kral Ian Scott JD Greenway traded Joe Miller Joey Anderson John Fusco Joseph Duszak Joseph Woll Kalle Loponen Kristians Rubins Mac Hollowell Matthew Knies Mike Koster Mikhail Abramov Mikko Kokkonen Mitch Marner Nicholas Abruzzese Nicholas Robertson Nikolai Chebykin Pierre Engvall old Pavel Gogolev Pontus Holmberg Rasmus Sandin Rodion Amirov Roni Hirvonen Ryan O'Connell Ryan Tverberg Semyon Der-Arguchintsev Semyon Kizimov Timothy Liljegren Topi Niemela Travis Dermott Ty Voit Veeti Miettinen Vieni Vehvilainen Vladimir Boblyev Vladislav Kara Vyacheslav Peksa William Nylander old  :'( William Villeneuve Wyatt Schingoethe		25. William Villeneuve 24. Brennan Menell 23. Artur Akhtyamov 22. Filip Kral 21. Pavel Gogolev 20. Pontus Holmberg 19. Dennis Malgin 18. Ty Voit 17. Veeti Miettinen 16. Dmitri Ovchinnikov 15. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 14. Joey Anderson 13. Nick Abruzzese 12. Mikko Kokkonen 11. Mikhail Abramov 10. Matthew Knies 9. Travis Dermott 8. Roni Hirvonen 7. Topi Niemela 6. Timoth Liljegren 5. Nick Robertson T3. Rodion Amirov / Rasmus Sandin 2. Mitch Marner 1. Auston Matthews		25. Pontus Holmberg 24. Mac Hollowell 23. Filip Kral 22. Veeti Miettinen 21. Artur Akhtyamov 20. Denis Malgin 19. Dmitri Ovchinnikov 18. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 17. Egor Korshkov (traded to CAR) 16. Nicholas Abbruzzese 15. Pierre Engvall 14. Joey Anderson 13. Mikko Kokkonen 12. Topi Niemela 11. Roni Hirvonen 10. Mikhail Abramov 9. Travis Dermott 8. Filip Hallander traded to Pittsburgh 7. Timothy Liljegren 6. Rodion Amirov 5. Nick Robertson 4. Rasmus Sandin 3. William Nylander  ( :'( old) 2. Mitch Marner 1. Auston Matthews

TLN: Calder trophy eligible prospects

20. Kristians Rubins
19. Joseph Woll
18. Ty Voit
17. Pontus Holmberg
16. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
15. Pavel Gogolev
14. Dmitri Ovchinnikov
13. Mac Hollowell
12. Veeti Miettinen
11. Joey Anderson
10. Mikko Kokkonen
9. Mikhail Abramov
8. Nick Abruzzese
7. Matthew Knies
6. Roni Hirvonen
5. Topi Niemela
4. Timoth Liljegren
3. Rodion Amirov
2. Nick Robertson
1. Rasmus Sandin


MLHS Top 6-10, Top 1-5
10. Dmitri Ovchinnikov

9. Nick Abruzzese
8. Mikhail Abramov
7. Roni Hirvonen

6. Matthew Knies
5. Topi Niemela
4. Timothy Liljegren

3. Rodion Amirov
2. Rasmus Sandin
1. Nick Robertson

 

[herman]

I just wanted to get this thread started before the draft and expansion changed everything up
Some light reading in the meantime on more recent picks

The Gifted: Nick Robertson - The Athletic (paywall)
The Gifted: Mikhail Abramov - The Athletic (paywall)
The Gifted: Veeti Miettinen - The Athletic (paywall)
Pontus Holmberg is an SHL Champion and playoff MVP - PPP

 

[L K]

I liked our draft from last year but the lack of high potential reward players in our prospect pool is concerning.

Having only a 2nd, 5th and 6th round draft pick this year and a 1st, 2nd and 7th draft pick next year really doesn't help that.

Out of that 1st,two 3rd, two 4th, a 5th, a 6th and a 7th draft picks that are traded away we are left with:
Jack Campbell and Ryan Tvberg in the organization

It's just not good roster management for a team that really needs to rely on draft picks to get higher end talent to fill in the gaps.  Too many trade deadline acquisition who have not provided much of any impact to the roster.

 

[Bender]

I wouldn't even just call it not good. Walking all your guys to free agency for nothing while throwing away picks like they have is actual mismanagement imo. They might get lucky in the previous couple of drafts, and yes they had a big draft last year, but at some point burning the candle at both ends is going to end really badly.

I liked our draft from last year but the lack of high potential reward players in our prospect pool is concerning.

Having only a 2nd, 5th and 6th round draft pick this year and a 1st, 2nd and 7th draft pick next year really doesn't help that.

Out of that 1st,two 3rd, two 4th, a 5th, a 6th and a 7th draft picks that are traded away we are left with:
Jack Campbell and Ryan Tvberg in the organization

It's just not good roster management for a team that really needs to rely on draft picks to get higher end talent to fill in the gaps.  Too many trade deadline acquisition who have not provided much of any impact to the roster.

 

[L K]

I wouldn't even just call it not good. Walking all your guys to free agency for nothing while throwing away picks like they have is actual mismanagement imo. They might get lucky in the previous couple of drafts, and yes they had a big draft last year, but at some point burning the candle at both ends is going to end really badly.

I liked our draft from last year but the lack of high potential reward players in our prospect pool is concerning.

Having only a 2nd, 5th and 6th round draft pick this year and a 1st, 2nd and 7th draft pick next year really doesn't help that.

Out of that 1st,two 3rd, two 4th, a 5th, a 6th and a 7th draft picks that are traded away we are left with:
Jack Campbell and Ryan Tvberg in the organization

It's just not good roster management for a team that really needs to rely on draft picks to get higher end talent to fill in the gaps.  Too many trade deadline acquisition who have not provided much of any impact to the roster.

I know you have been beating this drum this year but show me the team that is trading away all of their good UFA players while trying to compete for a Cup

 

[bustaheims]

I know you have been beating this drum this year but show me the team that is trading away all of their good UFA players while trying to compete for a Cup

Yeah. Outside of teams that were looking to free up cap space, I can't think of any that went that route. There are some that used the offseason to move guys going into the final year of their contracts, but moving that kind of player mid-season? Only really happens when someone else emerges to take their place AND the trade helps the team shore up areas of weakness. It's rarely pending UFAs out for picks and prospects. In the first couple years this Leafs core group were making noise, it might have made some sense - those teams were not Cup contenders and guys like JvR, Komarov, and Bozak were never going to be part of the team's future. But, more recently than that? No way it was happening. The mistakes the team has made is spending high value assets for again rentals. A 1st round pick for a few weeks of Foligno? The same pick for a similar player with some term left on an affordable deal (like Coleman to TBay at the 2020 deadline)? That's a different story. At least the team would still have something to show for those moves.

 

[herman]

I wouldn't even just call it not good. Walking all your guys to free agency for nothing while throwing away picks like they have is actual mismanagement imo. They might get lucky in the previous couple of drafts, and yes they had a big draft last year, but at some point burning the candle at both ends is going to end really badly.

In general, I'd agree, but there's asset management for the sake of asset management, and there's asset management for an express purpose (win the Cup). I know people are miffed at the waste of that last deadline, but one goal at the right time (c'mon just play Nylander on PP1 fulltime opposite Matthews), puts the Leafs through against Winnipeg and another series of rest for Foligno/Nash/Tavares.

In the earlier Matthews era, I'd say, yeah spin JvR/Bozak/etc off for more pipeline pressure. Now, in Matthews/Nylander/Marner's prime and the tail end of Tavares'? Now it's more evaluating existing in-house replacements or market value of the role that needs to be filled vs trade return on renting out the expiring player (Hyman, Andersen, Rielly).

They weren't going to find anything remotely like Hyman's current value on the market or internally at 2.75M, so holding him was an easy call. Probably could have extended him earlier, but there's hard miles on that aging player. They should be (and already have been) hunting down and building up the next cohort of Hyman-type middle-sixer.

Andersen probably could've been traded but it would've put immense pressure on Campbell, without a decent return on the market that would've netted cap space and/or greater reliability, and then being injured doesn't bring back any value. This offseason, there are quite a number of UFA options with flat cap pressure.

Rielly though, is prime for recuperating assets, even though I hate losing the person/leader. He's a workhorse, but I think we can do almost what he provides with internal options (by committee).

 

[L K]

I know you have been beating this drum this year but show me the team that is trading away all of their good UFA players while trying to compete for a Cup

Yeah. Outside of teams that were looking to free up cap space, I can't think of any that went that route. There are some that used the offseason to move guys going into the final year of their contracts, but moving that kind of player mid-season? Only really happens when someone else emerges to take their place AND the trade helps the team shore up areas of weakness. It's rarely pending UFAs out for picks and prospects. In the first couple years this Leafs core group were making noise, it might have made some sense - those teams were not Cup contenders and guys like JvR, Komarov, and Bozak were never going to be part of the team's future. But, more recently than that? No way it was happening. The mistakes the team has made is spending high value assets for again rentals. A 1st round pick for a few weeks of Foligno? The same pick for a similar player with some term left on an affordable deal (like Coleman to TBay at the 2020 deadline)? That's a different story. At least the team would still have something to show for those moves.

I think that's the thing for me.  We had the opportunity to do that 5 years ago with Bozak/JVR and maybe Komarov.  Those are all moves that are on Lou for not making them.

 

[Bender]

I wouldn't even just call it not good. Walking all your guys to free agency for nothing while throwing away picks like they have is actual mismanagement imo. They might get lucky in the previous couple of drafts, and yes they had a big draft last year, but at some point burning the candle at both ends is going to end really badly.

I liked our draft from last year but the lack of high potential reward players in our prospect pool is concerning.

Having only a 2nd, 5th and 6th round draft pick this year and a 1st, 2nd and 7th draft pick next year really doesn't help that.

Out of that 1st,two 3rd, two 4th, a 5th, a 6th and a 7th draft picks that are traded away we are left with:
Jack Campbell and Ryan Tvberg in the organization

It's just not good roster management for a team that really needs to rely on draft picks to get higher end talent to fill in the gaps.  Too many trade deadline acquisition who have not provided much of any impact to the roster.

I know you have been beating this drum this year but show me the team that is trading away all of their good UFA players while trying to compete for a Cup

I didn't say trade all of them, but I am saying don't let them all walk for nothing. Barrie was not working out in the shortened season and it was awful. I would've at least traded Barrie, because you're potentially at a situation where you've basically traded Naz for literally nothing if Kerfoot gets claimed.

St. Louis traded Stastny. Like I said, at some point this ends really badly if we keep having bad drafts, fewer useful picks and walk all our guys to UFA. It's going to be a slow war of attrition on until we walk Matthews to free agency and then what? My fear is we waste the youth of this core and have nothing to show for it by repeatedly making poor decisions with our draft capital and pending UFAs and in retrospect this really started by short circuiting the rebuild once we picked Matthews instead of knocking it out of the park with another big draft year and recouping assets for expiring contracts in JVR, Bozak etc.

I can't believe we're just going to run it back again.

 

[Kin]

I didn't say trade all of them, but I am saying don't let them all walk for nothing. Barrie was not working out in the shortened season and it was awful. I would've at least traded Barrie, because you're potentially at a situation where you've basically traded Naz for literally nothing if Kerfoot gets claimed.

That seems like making a trade more for the optics of it than for actual value. The reasons you think trading Barrie would have been a good idea, which lets be fair come with a fair degree of hindsight with regards to how the team would do in the playoffs, are also the reasons he wouldn't have returned much. At that point you have to way the fairly minor return against what it does to the psyche of the team that thinks they can make some noise in the playoffs that you're ok with them getting worse for the sake of a 2nd round pick or whatever.

 

[Bender]

I didn't say trade all of them, but I am saying don't let them all walk for nothing. Barrie was not working out in the shortened season and it was awful. I would've at least traded Barrie, because you're potentially at a situation where you've basically traded Naz for literally nothing if Kerfoot gets claimed.

That seems like making a trade more for the optics of it than for actual value. The reasons you think trading Barrie would have been a good idea, which lets be fair come with a fair degree of hindsight with regards to how the team would do in the playoffs, are also the reasons he wouldn't have returned much. At that point you have to way the fairly minor return against what it does to the psyche of the team that thinks they can make some noise in the playoffs that you're ok with them getting worse for the sake of a 2nd round pick or whatever.

Ok, but the main point still stands. How many guys are we going to let walk? Management talks repeatedly about a sustainable model for winning. Is this really it?

 

[herman]

Trading out expiring deals is a bit of a punt, so if the team thinks it is pretty close to the goal line, is it the right move to spin off a guy who probably helped you get there for a draft pick or two that won't bear fruit (and even then, a low-probability result) until 3-4 years down the road?

One could argue the Leafs have recuperated assets from role players that got surpassed before expiry in Johnsson and Kapanen. In any case, you have to find an appropriate dance partner too or else you're bleeding asset value just to make something happen.

 

[Kin]

Ok, but the main point still stands. How many guys are we going to let walk? Management talks repeatedly about a sustainable model for winning. Is this really it?

I'm sure management does but realistically there is no sustainable model for winning in the modern NHL. You (hopefully) assemble a talented core, supplement them with secondary pieces and roll the dice in the playoffs for as long as you can but eventually the cap will catch up with you and you need to trim guys and replace them with cheaper options. Does smart asset management and development help delay that? Sure but at best by a few years. Even Chicago, who had good management as well as being helped out by backdiving deals, really could only kick the can so far before they had to start paying people.

 

[Kin]

Trading out expiring deals is a bit of a punt, so if the team thinks it is pretty close to the goal line, is it the right move to spin off a guy who probably helped you get there for a draft pick or two that won't bear fruit (and even then, a low-probability result) until 3-4 years down the road?

While I agree with you to some extent if, at some point, Kyle Dubas wants to earn the accolades you think he deserves he's probably going to have to do what other successful teams do and occasionally draft some guys who contribute in significant ways without it taking 3-4 years after they've been drafted.

 

[L K]

Trading out expiring deals is a bit of a punt, so if the team thinks it is pretty close to the goal line, is it the right move to spin off a guy who probably helped you get there for a draft pick or two that won't bear fruit (and even then, a low-probability result) until 3-4 years down the road?

While I agree with you to some extent if, at some point, Kyle Dubas wants to earn the accolades you think he deserves he's probably going to have to do what other successful teams do and occasionally draft some guys who contribute in significant ways without it taking 3-4 years after they've been drafted.

I?d settle for guys he drafted doing anything in the NHL let alone immediately at this point.  We are still waiting fir an impact player out of our draft pool to contribute to the Leafs

 

[herman]

Trading out expiring deals is a bit of a punt, so if the team thinks it is pretty close to the goal line, is it the right move to spin off a guy who probably helped you get there for a draft pick or two that won't bear fruit (and even then, a low-probability result) until 3-4 years down the road?

While I agree with you to some extent if, at some point, Kyle Dubas wants to earn the accolades you think he deserves he's probably going to have to do what other successful teams do and occasionally draft some guys who contribute in significant ways without it taking 3-4 years after they've been drafted.

For sure. Drafted players don't make <3-4 year positive impact at the NHL level unless its a top-3 to 5 pick in a good year. Nylander took 2-3 years, Marner 2 (artificially suppressed year for both). Pastrnak and Point, quintessential picked-too-late core players followed similar trajectories. And a lot of it is also dependent on the tide level of the team they're coming into.

So unless selling off pending UFAs are going to net guaranteed top-5 picks or an immediately serviceable NHLer, I think it's a tough sell to a team in contention (or believes itself to be in contention) to take that shot away from someone who isn't already obviously a spare part.

 

[herman]

I quite like Topi Niemela's chances.

 

[Kin]

For sure. Drafted players don't make <3-4 year positive impact at the NHL level unless its a top-3 to 5 pick in a good year.

It doesn't happen a lot but it does happen. Quinn Hughes, Aho, Girard, Sergachev, de Brincat. Is that a hard standard to hold someone to? Sure but, you know, you need exceptional work from the front office and the Leafs can afford to hire the best so a Leafs GM can't just aim for ordinary performance.

And this environment seems ideal for young guys to step in and contribute. There isn't a ton of pressure to be the guy, there's good veteran leadership and guys to feed off.

 

[herman]

Quinn Hughes arguably should?ve been in the 3-5 range, right? Arizona and Detroit sort of botched it.

Yeah I think it?s the right environment to bring along some of the prospects to see what they?re made of.

As for the Dubas drafts so far, I don?t really see any big misses on their first picks yet, where someone drafted after has played significant games for good teams. They really do need to give Sandin and Liljegren some leash to figure things out this season, and losing a Dermott or Holl from expansion should help.

 

[Kin]

Quinn Hughes arguably should?ve been in the 3-5 range, right? Arizona and Detroit sort of botched it.

In hindsight all of these guys should have been top 3-5 picks. That's not really the way things work though.

As for the Dubas drafts so far, I don?t really see any big misses on their first picks yet, where someone drafted after has played significant games for good teams.

I don't either but, again, he's not being judged on his ability to not strike out, he's actually got to hit some home runs.