Leafs acquire and extend Kirill Marchenko

[Guilt Trip]

I really like Knies, and I am sad to see him go. The Leafs are a better team than they were a couple hours ago.

Same

 

[dappleganger]

Do the Leafs only have 3-NHL LD now?

 

[Darryl]

It almost feels like more was going on behind the scenes with Knies. Not a trade demand but letting it be known he would not be opposed to moving on.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

The Toronto Maple Leafs announced today that the hockey club has acquired forwards Kirill Marchenko and Miles Wood, as well as goaltender Elvis Merzļikins, from the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for defenceman Emil Andrae, forwards Matthew Knies and Steven Lorentz, as well as a second-round selection in the 2027 NHL Draft.

The Blue Jackets are retaining 18 percent of Merzļikins’ salary. The second-round selection was originally acquired by Toronto in a trade with Seattle on March 6, 2026, and will be the later selection of the Winnipeg or Columbus 2027 second-round picks

Knies for Marchenko I think should have been an even trade straight up basically. Lorentz for Woods is probably advantage Columbus. Woods has 1 additional year left on his deal and carries a $1.15mil higher cap hit. Woods has more of a track record with producing in the NHL though. Then we take on Elvis with some retention, which feels like us doing Columbus a favour more than anything. I wonder if what the long-term play is there... so far nothing has really suggested he'll be on LTIR all year so do the Leafs hope to flip him at some point?

That leaves Andrae and a 2nd rounder feeling like they're just in a void somewhere. Really don't get why those were included.

 

[lamajama]

It almost feels like more was going on behind the scenes with Knies. Not a trade demand but letting it be known he would not be opposed to moving on.

I wouldn't blame the guy...apparently pretty much moving on to the Habs last year and then all the rumours. At some point I think if it was me I'd be thinking F you after I signed a long term deal to stay.

 

[rjd]

I think this is an analytics deal. I think they looked at Knies and saw a player that had a hard time producing with anyone but Matthews, and could play on the right side. Marchenko can apparently play either left or right. That slots the lines better if they want to move McKenna up to the first line and drop Cowan in on the second. It gives them more flexibility, and more skill in the top six. However, they are losing a bit of a unicorn in Knies, which gives me pause. I'm not sure how this is going to work out, so I'm going to give it some time before I judge it.

Hey, at least they didn't give up an unprotected first sometime in the future....

 

[herman]

Knies for Marchenko I think should have been an even trade straight up basically. Lorentz for Woods is probably advantage Columbus. Woods has 1 additional year left on his deal and carries a $1.15mil higher cap hit. Woods has more of a track record with producing in the NHL though. Then we take on Elvis with some retention, which feels like us doing Columbus a favour more than anything. I wonder if what the long-term play is there... so far nothing has really suggested he'll be on LTIR all year so do the Leafs hope to flip him at some point?

That leaves Andrae and a 2nd rounder feeling like they're just in a void somewhere. Really don't get why those were included.

Leafs weren’t the only team in on the sweepstakes. Bruins seemed pretty close a week ago and Montreal was seemingly in on it as well.

Also Columbus didn’t really have to trade Marchenko at all

 

[Nik]

This has a lot of the hallmarks of recent Leafs deals I don't really love, the letting go of the grittier player, the sort of "draft, schmaft" attitude towards pretty valuable picks, getting more expensive for a guy who I don't know really moves the needle....

But I've been so detached from the team recently that when I read this I realized I don't actually know how Knies is pronounced so I can't pretend I feel very strongly about it.

 

[cw]

I wasn't a big fan of the Andrae pickup - 7th dman to me. Marlies Rifai & Mermis have him largely covered or they could pick a 6/7th dman up.
Lorentz cleared waivers so not a lot given up there - clearing $.125 /yr cap hit for 2 yrs
Wood cleared waivers so he's a $1.x M/yr cap hit for 3 yrs and maybe he'll bounce back
Elvis Merzlikins had shoulder surgery in August 2026. Significant shoulder surgery takes several months to recover from so he's probably a LTIR candidate for much of the season.
The above is potentially and very roughly a wash in terms of NHL talent exchange with Leafs eating $1M/yr cap space

I suspect all the trade rumours took their toll on their relationship with Knies.

So maybe it comes down to Knies $7.75M x 5 yrs + a 2nd
for Marchenko $3.85M for 1 yr plus $12.5M/yr x 6 yrs
The Leafs get 2 more years with Marchenko before UFA status at age 32

That shores the Leafs up at RW. Roslovic would go down to the 3rd line where I think he belongs because of his not-so-strong defensive play
They have some cap space to fill the LW spot. (Bunting? or ??)

I think it improves their roster this season. I'm not so sure about the big cap difference in the subsequent years.

Still digesting it ... Not sure how I will ultimately feel about it

 

[dappleganger]

I wasn't a big fan of the Andrae pickup - 7th dman to me. Marlies Rifai & Mermis have him largely covered or they could pick a 6/7th dman up.
Lorentz cleared waivers so not a lot given up there - clearing $.125 /yr cap hit for 2 yrs
Wood cleared waivers so he's a $1.x M/yr cap hit for 3 yrs and maybe he'll bounce back
Elvis Merzlikins had shoulder surgery in August 2026. Significant shoulder surgery takes several months to recover from so he's probably a LTIR candidate for much of the season.
The above is potentially and very roughly a wash in terms of NHL talent exchange with Leafs eating $1M/yr cap space

I suspect all the trade rumours took their toll on their relationship with Knies.

So maybe it comes down to Knies $7.75M x 5 yrs + a 2nd
for Marchenko $3.85M for 1 yr plus $12.5M/yr x 6 yrs
The Leafs get 2 more years with Marchenko before UFA status at age 32

That shores the Leafs up at RW. Roslovic would go down to the 3rd line where I think he belongs because of his not-so-strong defensive play
They have some cap space to fill the LW spot. (Bunting? or ??)

I think it improves their roster this season. I'm not so sure about the big cap difference in the subsequent years.

Still digesting it ... Not sure how I will ultimately feel about it

Was just thinking, does this make the Leafs a little thin at LW now?

 

[Bender]

This has a lot of the hallmarks of recent Leafs deals I don't really love, the letting go of the grittier player, the sort of "draft, schmaft" attitude towards pretty valuable picks, getting more expensive for a guy who I don't know really moves the needle....

But I've been so detached from the team recently that when I read this I realized I don't actually know how Knies is pronounced so I can't pretend I feel very strongly about it.

I mean, is Knies actually gritty? I think he's big but I don't know if I'd call him gritty in comparison.

 

[Nik]

I mean, is Knies actually gritty? I think he's big but I don't know if I'd call him gritty in comparison.

You know what? It's a fair point. I've seen him described as a Power Forward so I just assumed. He had 3 times as many hits as Marchenko last year according to the league but those stats were always pretty fishy so????

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I mean, is Knies actually gritty? I think he's big but I don't know if I'd call him gritty in comparison.

I think he's one of those guys that will turn the grit on when needed (playoffs and plays like when he ran over that one Ottawa player and fought Hischier come to mind), but he isn't really an everyday daunting power forward like Tom Wilson or something (his body would probably fall apart).

 

[Champ Kind]

This has a lot of the hallmarks of recent Leafs deals I don't really love, the letting go of the grittier player, the sort of "draft, schmaft" attitude towards pretty valuable picks, getting more expensive for a guy who I don't know really moves the needle....

But I've been so detached from the team recently that when I read this I realized I don't actually know how Knies is pronounced so I can't pretend I feel very strongly about it.

Great see see and hear from you here, Nik. Hope to see you around more often.

 

[Chris]

Yeah, I don' think Knies is particularly gritty. He'll fight when challenged (Hischier) or if he feels personally wronged/targeted (Whitecloud) but he watched/did nothing when Cowan was run into the net last year. I think he wants to play a skill game more like Matthews or Nylander, and if that's the case - Marchenko is better at those aspects of the game so the trade makes sense. Maybe part of it is the fact that he's already had a couple of concussions and other injuries. Now, if Knies decides to impose his physical will on the game more as he develops, the Leafs might regret the trade. But I think it's worth the risk.

To me, Knies is another in a long line of physically big Leaf forwards who just don't want to play that way...McMann, Lorentz. Engval, Mikheyev and others come to mind. Even Matthews.

 

[Champ Kind]

Knies for Marchenko I think should have been an even trade straight up basically. Lorentz for Woods is probably advantage Columbus. Woods has 1 additional year left on his deal and carries a $1.15mil higher cap hit. Woods has more of a track record with producing in the NHL though. Then we take on Elvis with some retention, which feels like us doing Columbus a favour more than anything. I wonder if what the long-term play is there... so far nothing has really suggested he'll be on LTIR all year so do the Leafs hope to flip him at some point?

That leaves Andrae and a 2nd rounder feeling like they're just in a void somewhere. Really don't get why those were included.

I think the overall valuation is that Marchenko is worth a 2nd and a 3rd (my rough estimate of Andrae's value) more than Knies.

Marchenko is pretty darn close to a point per game playing with much less talented linemates. Analytically, he drives play in a way Knies hasn't. I am sure the Blue Jackets were valuing him as having unlocked potential, supported by underlying analytics. This market loves rugged players - or at least the perception of players who should play ruggedly - and we don't know whether Knies is a fully developed player at this point.

I think it bears noting that two very distinct management teams have both seen fit to trade Knies.

Final thought: this trade is "sort of" giving me 5/8'ths Sundin for Clark vibes.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think it bears noting that two very distinct management teams have both seen fit to trade Knies.

Funny thing I saw a post on reddit that said all 3 of Knies' GMs have tried to trade him (if you include the alleged Dubas deal that would have had him go to Chicago for Hagel).