My thought exactly. We likely will move him, but I wouldn't jump to that conclusion right this second. You should probably decently try to be competitive next year and I want to see what the moves are before I (like Matthews) throw in the towel since we don't really have a choice.
Larkin requests trade out of Detroit
- Thread starter CarltonTheBear
- Start date
There's no reason to strip into the studs yet then. Whats the purpose of trying to be non-competitive? Matthews either signs a new contract or he's gone regardless so he will make the choice for us when the time comes.
Detroit should appreciate that Larkin is being upfront and allowing them to shop. Sucks for Detroit though, Larkin is peaking, maybe declining, and Detroit is not close, so it's not surprising. A Larkin/Seider team sounds pretty awesome to build around but the roster is not even close.
So I looked at the Brock Nelson deal from NYI to COL
COL gave up a late first rounder prospect (like Danford for Toronto), a late first rounder (like Toronto's 2027 Colorado pick) and a third rounder if Colorado won a Cup in 2025 which they did not - so I'd ignore. Islanders ate half his contract final year short term. Colorado signed him to an extension
Larkin is a few years younger, signed for a number of years and a first line center so I think a team would have to give Detroit more - Leafs would have to give something like Cowan or Hildeby or something of significant prospect value as they don't have a first round pick any time soon beyond the above.
I doubt it would get that far because Larkin would have to approve it
But it gives one an idea of how hard it would be to do something like this.
COL gave up a late first rounder prospect (like Danford for Toronto), a late first rounder (like Toronto's 2027 Colorado pick) and a third rounder if Colorado won a Cup in 2025 which they did not - so I'd ignore. Islanders ate half his contract final year short term. Colorado signed him to an extension
Larkin is a few years younger, signed for a number of years and a first line center so I think a team would have to give Detroit more - Leafs would have to give something like Cowan or Hildeby or something of significant prospect value as they don't have a first round pick any time soon beyond the above.
I doubt it would get that far because Larkin would have to approve it
But it gives one an idea of how hard it would be to do something like this.
herman
Well-known member
Brock Nelson was on the final year with a Modified NTC, so New York still had a pool to drum up a market for.
Larkin has a full NTC. The package will be less than expected. Probably pushing for Minnesota (who also has much less to offer these days after the Hughes deal).
Larkin has a full NTC. The package will be less than expected. Probably pushing for Minnesota (who also has much less to offer these days after the Hughes deal).
L K
Well-known member
It's be cool if players forced their way to Toronto. Everyone wants to go superstar mode twice a year here but don't seem to want to do it 82 times a year
But it is Larkin who wants to move. He has to help make it easier - provide some destination flexibility or he can finish his career in Detroit.
Yzerman can play a little hardball.
Team are desperate for good centers - some may appeal to him.
He's not in a position where he can be too fussy.
I just looked at Nelson's playoff stats. Less than 50% on draws. 13GP 2G 1A -1 8.3% shooting 18+ mins/game. The Avs have to be disappointed. I would have expected better (though it is a small sample size)
dappleganger
Well-known member
Unsurprisingly it's: Florida, Vegas, Minnesota.
Please Bill Guerin, you're our only hope!
herman
Well-known member
Ah, the guys from the US Olympics group chat.
Joe S.
Moderator
I'd just tell him to shut up and get back to work and revisit it in a couple years time if he still wants to move.
I doubt Yzerman bends much, if at all.
At a glance, Minnesota seems like the only one who might make sense
Barkov is returning to FLA from injury after winning the World Championships
Vegas has Eichel, Karlsson, Hertl (& Stone) signed and they fit their two way style. They have others like their D that need attention.
There are not a lot of UFA centers .5 ppg or better.
Larkin is lifting his NMC and providing some team names to allow his GM to try to get something for him while he has years on his contract because he doesn't want to play in Detroit any more.
A certain unnamed Leaf wouldn't lift his NMC or give any team names at the end of his contract because he did not want to be traded as he had negotiated his right to take that position as part of his contract of employment. His wife had a baby on the way and he wanted a last season with his teammates. His NMC negotiated in good faith gave him the right to take that position.
Yzerman has a pretty good shot at getting more than a 4th line center for Larkin because Larkin is helping the process - he wants to be traded. If all Yzerman is going to get is a 4th line center, Larkin probably shouldn't put his house up for sale any time soon. He'll probably have to provide more team names.
The circumstances are quite different.
If Matthews doesn't want to be traded before his contract ends in Toronto, Leafs will get nothing. If Matthews re-signs, Leafs will get Matthews. If the Leafs don't want to trade Matthews, they'll keep Matthews until his deal expires and get nothing unless he re-signs. If Matthews agrees to be traded before his contract ends, Leafs will get something. If Matthews agrees to be traded this summer, the Leafs should get more for the years remaining on his current deal than they would if he's traded just before it expires.
The trade return for a player with a NMC varies with the quality of the player, the player's & team's desires to make a trade, the remaining contract years & amount and circumstances (like how many team names is he providing). With that many variables, the return will vary accordingly. I don't think it is rocket science. People that acknowledge those various factors exist are probably closer to being correct in their assessment.
How is this about Marner yet again?
He's lifting his NMC for three teams, one of which unloaded their assets for Quinn Hughes. Good luck with that. If Matthews wants to be traded he will likewise provide names, and possibly only a few. The logic remains essentially the same. But it's the Leafs so even if Matthews wants to leave you won't get a decent return because it's the Leafs but Larkin will because it's not the Leafs. #hockeylogic
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They may get very little. I don't think VGK or FLD is in a position to trade for him, so why would MIN give away the farm? As you said, DET's reply might be shut up and go to work.
You raised it with "Leafs players will fetch very little because NMCs"
What other Leafs player has recently been traded or might be on the trade block with a NMC? Only 2 I can think of.
They're hoping Matthews hangs around but I also addressed him as the only other.
You brought it up with that quote.
Where did Larkin say he wouldn't provide more teams if these three don't come through? I haven't seen that. Do you have a link for that? If he took that position, he might have to retire as a Wing or be there a long time. It looks to me like he put his top 3 preferences forward first.
MIN could use a #1 center. It would be wonderful for Quinn Hughes & Kaprizov to have Larkin to play with.
Getting Larkin could help them lock up Hughes.
MIN has 6 2nd round picked prospects and 2 1st round picked prospects in their prospect system plus 2027 and 2028 1st rounders. I have not reviewed them closely but that many is not nothing.
To help cap space, they can probably send a roster player back to Detroit.
That doesn't guarantee it will happen but it certainly doesn't guarantee it won't either.
It is good for Detroit because Larkin would be in the other conference - not someone they would have to get through in the playoffs
If they pull that deal off before July 1, it will help MIN land UFAs.
Your #hockeylogic is bizarre. It has nothing to do with a rule for the Leafs and a rule for not a Leaf.
Most circumstances will be unique for the player and team involved as they are with Larkin or Matthews.
It has nothing to do with whether the player is a Leafs player in general.