Author Topic: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021  (Read 5044 times)

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Offline Frank E

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2020, 10:39:59 AM »
I don't know what personal issues he's encountered this year, but I'm not sure it would have mattered if he was trouble-free but couldn't put together a better all-round game.

Offline Highlander

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2020, 11:39:59 AM »
Clune threw him under a bus and called him Lazy (basically).  Remember Clune was his roommate.  Nuff said.
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Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2020, 09:57:56 AM »
Recently ELC’d and previously unranked Filip Kral is today’s prospect.
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Offline Bender

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2020, 10:28:19 AM »
Recently ELC’d and previously unranked Filip Kral is today’s prospect.

I saw a write up about him in The Athletic. Very intriguing prospect, but I've learned to never really get carried away with any prospect unless they're of a generally high pedigree. 
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Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #19 on: June 22, 2020, 11:11:35 AM »
Recently ELC’d and previously unranked Filip Kral is today’s prospect.

I saw a write up about him in The Athletic. Very intriguing prospect, but I've learned to never really get carried away with any prospect unless they're of a generally high pedigree.

I think it's pretty safe to say there isn't anything to get carried away with here.
However, this ranking on Kral is a good place to speak about Dubas' defenseman drafting and development philosophy because he's pretty much the baseline sample.
Quote
Good skaters, “smart” on the ice, good passers, not much attention to shooting, and mobile

In the OZ: Given the way Keefe wants the defense to activate to the circles when the high forward stretches the defensive box, we're looking for players who can hold the puck without panic, and boldly jump in low against the grain of play and hit an open man with a cross slot feed or cause a decent scramble. We really don't want defensemen shooting all too often north of the circles.

In transition: gap control, killing plays early before the blueline is not easy. Being a good and mobile skater is part of it, but those skills don't mean anything if the brain controlling the skates is still trying to read a play.
Here's a nice quick read on what's good and what isn't:
And here's a great longer look at one of Dubas' top choices (that I've posted previously but it was awhile ago): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3N8HpG_XmU

In the DZ: this needs to be a team effort between D and F in steering play into the safer areas and killing it with numbers. Get the stick on puck first and then skate through their hands and it almost doesn't matter if your players are smaller.
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Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #20 on: June 22, 2020, 03:00:41 PM »
I started my list but I got too sad after the top-8.
I had full intention to fill out a list of 25 but I too, got sad at 12 and just trimmed it back.

I'd probably swap 2/3 on yours, unless we're taking AAV into consideration which we aren't here.

The Robertson-Sandin-Kapanen block can really go any way. I'm generally "potential in the next few years trumps what the player did last season" when it comes to these lists but even still I might put Kappy over Robertson for now. I'm not sure Robertson's value in the next few years will be much more than "good scoring middle-6 winger" which Kapanen is already at.

I'm sort of the same re: potential > last season's usage. I know Marner generates a lot (aaaaa loooootttt) of points and it's great and he's fantastic and fun and works hard and plays all three phases of the game to varying degrees of above average to great/elite and is still very young.

That being said, a lot of his points are power play assists, where the power play scheme is built around him touching the puck at some point. So of course he's going to rack up numbers (a la Nikita Zaitsev and Tyson Barrie). How many are legit Marner-only plays? Does he get as many points if he is not feeding Tavares/Matthews/Nylander/JvR? When he was injured, did the PP suffer greatly due to his missing contribution?

I just see more potential in Nylander, I guess. If Tavares and Matthews both went down to injury around the same time, Nylander is the one getting shifted over to centre. If there isn't a perfect pass to be had, I'm betting Nylander's shot goes in more often than Marner's. I like Nylander's NZ carry better. I like Marner's gumption better. And I don't think their passing prowess is that far off from each other, and I don't think their off-puck play is much different either (just one looks like he works harder because of his skating posture). They both have room and runway to improve too and the Leafs are going to be scary for a long time because of these two playing alongside Matthews either way.

I might swap Dermott and Liljegren. Not a popular opinion but I've expressed doubts about Dermott playing in a top-4 role while my fingers are still crossed Liljegren can get there.

After that, who knows. I might go Engvall then Korshkov but if you think Korshkov can play a top-6 role in the next few seasons then I can understand him being over Engvall who despite just finishing his "rookie" season I'm not sure will really grow past the 3rd line.

I think Dermott and Liljegren can both turn into very dependable 4th D as their floor in the next year or two. Liljegren clearly needs more time to adjust to NHL speeds, and Dermott is very nearly there. I like Liljegren's offensive ceiling more (best two+ line passer in our system with Gardiner gone). Sandin looks to me like he has better instincts in both zones than both Dermott and Liljegren, but he's still defensively raw compared to Dermott.

Yeah, I have Korshkov over Engvall because there's top-6 upside. Similar template to Mikheyev. Korshkov's not as fast as either player, but he has better hands in tight and better playmaking than both of them.
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Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #21 on: June 23, 2020, 09:15:31 AM »
19. Joey Duszak!

An NCAA free agent pickup late last season who didn't start playing defense until 14, and it can be argued still sort of doesn't! It's like getting Tyson Barrie, but before he has a chance to fully settle into a one-dimensional blueline forward, so expect to see Duszak start being trained defensively (a la Liljegren, Dermott) when hockey starts up again (who knows when).
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Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2020, 11:12:11 AM »
I think Dermott and Liljegren can both turn into very dependable 4th D as their floor in the next year or two. Liljegren clearly needs more time to adjust to NHL speeds, and Dermott is very nearly there. I like Liljegren's offensive ceiling more (best two+ line passer in our system with Gardiner gone). Sandin looks to me like he has better instincts in both zones than both Dermott and Liljegren, but he's still defensively raw compared to Dermott.

Agreed. I'm still quite optimistic about Dermott. He's only 23 and he's got all the tools.

Offline Nik

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2020, 12:09:51 PM »
I think Dermott and Liljegren can both turn into very dependable 4th D as their floor in the next year or two. Liljegren clearly needs more time to adjust to NHL speeds, and Dermott is very nearly there. I like Liljegren's offensive ceiling more (best two+ line passer in our system with Gardiner gone). Sandin looks to me like he has better instincts in both zones than both Dermott and Liljegren, but he's still defensively raw compared to Dermott.

Agreed. I'm still quite optimistic about Dermott. He's only 23 and he's got all the tools.

Dermott seems like he'll be an interesting case in how much a player's career can progress if he's ok at everything but excellent at nothing.
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Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #24 on: June 23, 2020, 12:25:17 PM »
My thoughts exactly. I often consider him to be somewhat like Carl Gunnarsson in that regard. He didn't really do anything great nor did he do anything particularly poorly.

Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2020, 12:45:03 PM »
Agreed. I'm still quite optimistic about Dermott. He's only 23 and he's got all the tools.

Dermott seems like he'll be an interesting case in how much a player's career can progress if he's ok at everything but excellent at nothing.

I think he's our best NZ defenseman at the moment, and given more reps against harder competition, it's only a matter of time until he adjusts. He was more than adequate alongside Holl in relief of Muzzin/Rielly injuries considering he floundered a bit earlier in the season having missed training camp. He's a bit like the inverse of Rielly with a similar build. The Leafs are on their way to having 3-4 Dermotts (cheap, mobile, inoffensive defenders) of varying flavours in the lineup over the next handful of seasons.

It'll be interesting to see what a 'full' training camp alongside Rielly will do for Dermott.
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Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2020, 12:48:50 PM »
My thoughts exactly. I often consider him to be somewhat like Carl Gunnarsson in that regard. He didn't really do anything great nor did he do anything particularly poorly.

Gunnarsson was always one of our top penalty killers during his time here. I get what you're saying: he might not have been our biggest defender or fastest defender or had the best shot or pass or something like that, but he's someone who had pretty good defensive impacts while playing important minutes.

My worry with Dermott is that he becomes another Connor Carrick. We were always pretty jacked about him and gave him a lot of the same compliments that we give Dermott like how good his possession numbers are. But the same flaws are present too: he generally plays the cushiest minutes and he doesn't play on any specialty teams. That's not to say that having good 3rd pairing defencemen isn't a valuable thing I just don't think we should jump to the conclusions that he can have the same results playing in the top-4.

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2020, 12:53:40 PM »
Carrick's issue, from afar, always looked like overthinking, leading to late reaction (rather than steering play); coupled with his not as good as Dermott skating agility, he had limitations.
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Offline Nik

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2020, 02:54:36 PM »
Agreed. I'm still quite optimistic about Dermott. He's only 23 and he's got all the tools.

Dermott seems like he'll be an interesting case in how much a player's career can progress if he's ok at everything but excellent at nothing.

I think he's our best NZ defenseman at the moment, and given more reps against harder competition, it's only a matter of time until he adjusts. He was more than adequate alongside Holl in relief of Muzzin/Rielly injuries considering he floundered a bit earlier in the season having missed training camp. He's a bit like the inverse of Rielly with a similar build. The Leafs are on their way to having 3-4 Dermotts (cheap, mobile, inoffensive defenders) of varying flavours in the lineup over the next handful of seasons.

It'll be interesting to see what a 'full' training camp alongside Rielly will do for Dermott.

Yeah, I'm not saying that Dermott can't be valuable with his skillset but I do think what he brings to the table tends to be undervalued by NHL people. Someone like Roman Polak or Hal Gill always found work because a team would get them and be like "Well, our #2 defenseman on the PK position is filled". I'm not sure Dermott does that in any regard.

Where I think it becomes a problem is when you have, like you suggest the Leafs might, several guys who fit that description and cumulatively you can't figure out something like a really effective PK. That's when I think teams get antsy and look to trade all-arounders for specialists.
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Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects 2020-2021
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2020, 09:11:41 AM »
18. Pontus Holmberg

Um this is basically might be Par Lindholm. Does all the little coach-happy things, enough to earn him an SHL centre job at 19-20 years old.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2020, 09:14:24 AM by herman »
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