Author Topic: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]  (Read 3671 times)

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Offline herman

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #120 on: October 13, 2020, 10:10:18 AM »
Wonder why Dom's model doesn't look at him very favourably. He looks fine but basically nothing more than a reliable 4 guy. Wonder if he just had a bit of a down year last year.

Isn't that basically what he is though? Play driver through facilitation, not his own individual offensive contribution. Game Score is also a very offense-oriented model.

Jake Muzzin for comparison
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 10:22:21 AM by herman »
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Offline herman

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #121 on: October 13, 2020, 10:30:12 AM »

Explainer for the JFresh player card: it's just Evolving-Hockey's model in percentile form, weighted average of the past three seasons (heavier by recency).
https://jfresh.substack.com/p/player-card-explainer

The player we did not bother to court, because Brodie was interested in the Leafs for cheaper and less term.

Brodie was the target for his defensive contributions: he helps trap pucks in the OZ and stifles attacks in the NZ. He also isn't going to steal chances away from his forwards, who will primarily be Matthews and Tavares' lines. Those lines get like 20-28 shifts per game and shot attempts occur ~70-80% of the time; if a defenseman is taking those shots, less than half make it on net, and like 1% of them go in. We want our forwards, who have a much higher scoring chance and finishing rate to have the majority of the chances we generate.
« Last Edit: October 13, 2020, 10:43:10 AM by herman »
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Online Guilt Trip

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #122 on: October 13, 2020, 01:17:04 PM »
If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.

Offline Frycer14

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #123 on: October 13, 2020, 01:22:56 PM »
Wonder why Dom's model doesn't look at him very favourably. He looks fine but basically nothing more than a reliable 4 guy. Wonder if he just had a bit of a down year last year.

Or, it's not a representative model.

Offline Highlander

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #124 on: October 13, 2020, 01:33:54 PM »
If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.
He definitely had some health issues to start the season, when he came back to the Bubble, he looked way better than before the enforced layoff.  Hope he stays healthy and benefits from a skilled defensive partner.
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Online Guilt Trip

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #125 on: October 13, 2020, 01:35:29 PM »
If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.
He definitely had some health issues to start the season, when he came back to the Bubble, he looked way better than before the enforced layoff.  Hope he stays healthy and benefits from a skilled defensive partner.
True but he needs to elevate his game regardless of partner. Let's hope he does.

Offline Nik

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #126 on: October 13, 2020, 01:37:35 PM »
I don't think expecting Rielly to be a 65-70 point a year defenseman tracks. Last year he was at a 47p/82g pace roughly what he was in 17-18.

I think it's fair to expect him to be in the 50's, maybe even upper 50's. But he really wasn't far off from that last year so I'm not sure he needs any excuses.
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Online Guilt Trip

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #127 on: October 13, 2020, 01:38:56 PM »
I don't think expecting Rielly to be a 65-70 point a year defenseman tracks. Last year he was at a 47p/82g pace roughly what he was in 17-18.

I think it's fair to expect him to be in the 50's, maybe even upper 50's. But he really wasn't far off from that last year so I'm not sure he needs any excuses.
I'm not just talking points. His overall play was bad last year for his standards.

Offline Nik

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #128 on: October 13, 2020, 01:42:14 PM »

Even if that's true, and I don't know how much I agree with that, I'm not sure having a single injury disrupted off year is where I'd lose patience with a solid contributor on a great contract.
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Offline L K

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #129 on: October 13, 2020, 01:59:26 PM »
I don't think expecting Rielly to be a 65-70 point a year defenseman tracks. Last year he was at a 47p/82g pace roughly what he was in 17-18.

I think it's fair to expect him to be in the 50's, maybe even upper 50's. But he really wasn't far off from that last year so I'm not sure he needs any excuses.

Yeah I mean I don't think we can expect him to score 17 even strength goals again or have a 9% shooting percentage...especially with so many shoot first forwards.  I think 60 points is reasonable to want for him though as you said, high 50s is probably a more likely number. 

Offline Highlander

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #130 on: October 13, 2020, 04:49:29 PM »
If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.
He definitely had some health issues to start the season, when he came back to the Bubble, he looked way better than before the enforced layoff.  Hope he stays healthy and benefits from a skilled defensive partner.
True but he needs to elevate his game regardless of partner. Let's hope he does.
Do you mean you expect him to play Defense as well?  Gosh, let me scratch my brow on this one! ;)
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Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #131 on: October 13, 2020, 05:22:00 PM »
If Rielly's play can get back to 2 years ago, we win, but this is on Rielly too. He needs to pick it up. The excuses are gone for him.

Who's making excuses for him?

Offline herman

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #132 on: December 03, 2020, 10:39:49 AM »
Lots of Brodie clips and charts
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Offline herman

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Re: Leafs sign TJ Brodie [4 years, 5M AAV]
« Reply #133 on: December 27, 2020, 07:07:02 PM »
https://theathletic.com/2260574/2020/12/26/t-j-brodie-maple-leafs-defence/
Quote
Brodie also became known for, of all things, doing freestyle raps from time to time, and later, for a fascination with odd conspiracy theories. ?If there?s one thing we disagree on a lot, it?s his conspiracy theories,? Giordano said, chuckling.
They go a lot into how good Brodie is, but this is where I got some whiplash.
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