Author Topic: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590  (Read 1526 times)

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Offline bustaheims

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #150 on: February 10, 2020, 01:35:10 PM »
Like I said I would like to know of all their games that they won with your data how many of them came in either a shootout or overtime after giving up a lead to force overtime. Great that they can win the games but giving teams that 1 point is huge when they can beat teams in regulation.

They have 7 games where they won in OT/SO.

Lead by 1 going into the 3rd twice (BOS/BUF), Lead by 2 once (ANA)
Trailed by 1 going into the 3rd once (NJD)
Tied 3 times.

To summarize, the OT/SO wins after leading going into the 3rd has resulted in 1 point each to BOS, BUF and ANA. So pretty much no impact to the playoff race.

And, on only 4 times, did the Leafs lose in OT/SO when they held the lead at any point of the game. In 3 of those 4, they only ever held a one goal lead, and the 3rd was an early season collapse against Montreal, when they blew the lead AND tied the game in the 3rd period.

5 times - including the game against Montreal where they blew the lead - the Leafs tied the game in the 3rd period, only to lose in OT/SO. So, they've basically broken even there.

There's a lot of recency bias in play here, as they've been awful in 3rd periods over the last few games.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2020, 01:40:58 PM by bustaheims »
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Offline herman

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #151 on: February 10, 2020, 01:36:05 PM »
Oprah was handing out man-colds
#BeBlessed

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #151 on: February 10, 2020, 01:36:05 PM »

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #152 on: February 10, 2020, 01:59:17 PM »

I feel like something that is probably hurting this discussion is the idea of protecting third period leads as a test of mental toughness or character rather than, you know, an element of the game of hockey where a team's strength's and weaknesses factor into things.

Late in third periods is when a trailing team will throw everything they have at the leading team. Give more shifts to better offensive players, take risks for offense, obviously pull the goalie when it's time. A good defensive team will be better suited to handle these things than a not so good defensive team. A not so good defensive team that is, say, missing their best defenseman will probably be especially vulnerable to that.

So the Leafs, hampered by injuries and not being very good defensively to begin with, might get a cluster of games where things get bad for them in the third. I don't think this is much of a mystery that needs solving.
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Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #153 on: February 10, 2020, 02:54:24 PM »
The Bruins have the 6th worst winning percentage when leading after 2 periods in the league. Clearly a terrible team that can't hold a lead and won't be able to do anything in the post-season.

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #154 on: February 10, 2020, 03:44:55 PM »
Like I said I would like to know of all their games that they won with your data how many of them came in either a shootout or overtime after giving up a lead to force overtime. Great that they can win the games but giving teams that 1 point is huge when they can beat teams in regulation.

They have 7 games where they won in OT/SO.

Lead by 1 going into the 3rd twice (BOS/BUF), Lead by 2 once (ANA)
Trailed by 1 going into the 3rd once (NJD)
Tied 3 times.

To summarize, the OT/SO wins after leading going into the 3rd has resulted in 1 point each to BOS, BUF and ANA. So pretty much no impact to the playoff race.
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Offline Joe S.

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #155 on: February 10, 2020, 06:01:48 PM »
It seems like months ago we were complaining about their first period starts.

Offline Deebo

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #156 on: February 10, 2020, 06:06:48 PM »
It seems like months ago we were complaining about their first period starts.

Well they were pretty bad, they gave up the first goal in like 18 of the first 20 games or something crazy like that.

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #157 on: February 10, 2020, 06:57:01 PM »
It seems like months ago we were complaining about their first period starts.

Well they were pretty bad, they gave up the first goal in like 18 of the first 20 games or something crazy like that.

Why can't this team just be perfect ready?
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Online OldTimeHockey

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Re: Leafs @ Canadiens - Feb. 8th, 7:00pm - CBC, Fan 590
« Reply #158 on: February 11, 2020, 08:23:14 AM »

Late in third periods is when a trailing team will throw everything they have at the leading team. Give more shifts to better offensive players, take risks for offense, obviously pull the goalie when it's time.

Come on man, Montreal doesn't have offensive players. Look out! Here comes Thomas Tatar!