Author Topic: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension  (Read 1154 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Online Deebo

  • Global Moderator
  • Veteran
  • *****
  • Posts: 4919
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #30 on: January 01, 2020, 02:00:54 AM »
I don't like it. 

$1-$1.2 X 2 was about what I was comfortable with, because I think he's a 3rd pairing guy when they get someone to properly play those minutes.

I think $2m for a 3rd pairing d-man is too much.

I'm with you on that assessment. Holl would be at best a 3rd pair D on a team that is built for a playoff run.  I would have thought 1.5m max, but this seems to be par for course of Dubas' contract negotiations thus far.  Lou probably would have got him signed for 900k average.

The same Lou that gave Patrick Marleau 3x6.25, Zaitsev 7x4.25 and Leo Komarov 4x3?

Offline Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4887
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #31 on: January 01, 2020, 08:41:46 AM »
I don't like it. 

$1-$1.2 X 2 was about what I was comfortable with, because I think he's a 3rd pairing guy when they get someone to properly play those minutes.

I think $2m for a 3rd pairing d-man is too much.

Here is a list of defencemen with a cap hit of $1.2M or less:

https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/caphit/all/defense&limits=caphit-0-1200000

Holl is significantly better than anyone on that list who isn't playing on their ELC, except maybe Gustaffson (who is a special case, as he signed his current contract before his break out year last season). I think you need to re-adjust how you value players.

Holl has a grand total of 52 NHL games under his belt at 28 years old.  I'm not sure you can say that "Holl is significantly better than anyone on that list" at all. 

Secondly, I think that spot in the lineup might better be an ELC spot, or a scrapheap signing spot, and not a $2m a year spot.

I'm not really interested in discussing the relative value of bottom pairing d-men that will be available this summer.  I'm more disappointed that the Leafs see that 3rd pairing as a place to spend an extra $1m in cap space that they really don't have the luxury of affording.  There are going to be some interesting discussions this summer, and this contract doesn't make things any easier.

TMLfans.ca

Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #31 on: January 01, 2020, 08:41:46 AM »

Offline Nik Bethune

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 26897
  • All posts approved by CCP
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #32 on: January 01, 2020, 08:54:03 AM »
I'm more disappointed that the Leafs see that 3rd pairing as a place to spend an extra $1m in cap space that they really don't have the luxury of affording.

It's probably more likely that they think Holl is better than you do and that they think that sticking to outdated notions of players being "3rd pairing guys" probably doesn't accurately assess their worth.

The Leafs probably aren't going to have the kind of Norris-quality 25+ minute a night defensemen that a lot of other teams have relied on heavily. Accordingly, they're going to need more from their third pairing than other teams might. If Holl does wind up on the third pairing, his pay would probably just reflect that.
Nothing can have value without being an object of utility
-Karl Marx

Online herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 19515
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #33 on: January 01, 2020, 09:52:11 AM »
Holl has played 52 NHL games. Dubas and Keefe have watched his entire pro career and I think they have a pretty good idea where Holl stands relative to other NHL talent in the league.

Sandin and Liljegren are earmarked already. I don’t see Dermott getting more than a low bridge deal. Martin Marincin is probably coming back to the 6/7 slot for minimum (haha).
« Last Edit: January 01, 2020, 09:54:31 AM by herman »
#BeBlessed

Offline Nik Bethune

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 26897
  • All posts approved by CCP
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #34 on: January 01, 2020, 10:00:05 AM »
Holl has played 52 NHL games. Dubas and Keefe have watched his entire pro career and I think they have a pretty good idea where Holl stands relative to other NHL talent in the league.

Yeah. I know we in North America have this sort of all or nothing attitude where every year there's one winner and 30 ties for last place and there's doing it in the big leagues or nothing else matters but I think we should probably think of player evaluation a little bit more like they do in soccer. Obviously there all of the various leagues aren't of the same quality and so a team in a league like the EPL or Bundesliga won't look at a player's resume  in MLS or the Japanese leagues as 1:1 equivalents but they won't dismiss it as nothing either.

The AHL is either the 2nd or 3rd best league in the world and and what a guy does in it will contribute to their evaluation and, accordingly, their value.
Nothing can have value without being an object of utility
-Karl Marx

Online herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 19515
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #35 on: January 01, 2020, 12:11:16 PM »
#BeBlessed

Offline Highlander

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 6900
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #36 on: January 01, 2020, 12:32:07 PM »
Who wouldn't want to play for the Leafs, this is a great gesture as is bringing up Kivihalme for the trip to Minnesota.  Dubas staying with Souperman and flying back with him is another great gesture.  It would be good to get Mickey under contract as well at this point.
I think our D is going to round into much better shape when some of our young un's come up next year (or this year if we have more injuries)
By the way Holl is worth 2 million a year. Especially if Barrie is worth 4.5 and can't defend worth a shit.
"In the beginners mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few"
                                           Sunryn Suzuki

Offline bustaheims

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 21254
  • 56!
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #37 on: January 02, 2020, 01:41:39 PM »
Holl has a grand total of 52 NHL games under his belt at 28 years old.  I'm not sure you can say that "Holl is significantly better than anyone on that list" at all. 

Considering the 'veterans' on that list are largely guys who can't hold on to a spot on an NHL roster, never mind play significant minutes on a regular basis, I'm quite confident I can.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline AvroArrow

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1997
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #38 on: January 02, 2020, 02:40:02 PM »
This is a really good gamble... If he keeps it up or improves, we have a top-4 dman for 2M - quite literally a steal.  If he falters and falls back to bottom pairing, he'll be a slightly overpaid bottom pairing guy, which should be fairly cheap to jettison of needed.

Offline gunnar36

  • Rookie
  • ***
  • Posts: 445
  • TMLfans Newbie
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #39 on: January 02, 2020, 10:09:00 PM »
Holl getting 2m for 3yrs, makes me now wonder what Dermott is going to cash in at for next season.  I don't see any way that he takes less then Holl.  Dermott has a far more dynamic skill set and could potentially run a 2nd PP unit.

Offline Zee

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 12705
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #40 on: January 02, 2020, 10:56:10 PM »
Holl getting 2m for 3yrs, makes me now wonder what Dermott is going to cash in at for next season.  I don't see any way that he takes less then Holl.  Dermott has a far more dynamic skill set and could potentially run a 2nd PP unit.


Dermott may have the skill set but Holl has been better than him all season. He's playing more than Dermott and playing against tougher completion. Also Holl was going to be a UFA where as Dermott is still RFA status

Offline CarltonTheBear

  • Administrator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 26395
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #41 on: January 02, 2020, 10:58:10 PM »
"Potentially" running a 2nd PP unit isn't going to get him paid though. I think you can make a good case that the Leafs really don't plan on using him in that role in the next few years. Even if we lose Barrie I think that Sandin gets the PP2 spot next season ahead of Dermott. And Dermott's value to the team, and therefore what his cap hit should be, is more limited if he's not really playing any specialty team minutes.

I don't think it'll necessarily happen, but he's almost at the risk of being Connor Carrick'd. It's hard to really be a significant NHL defenceman if you're only playing 5-on-5 minutes.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 11:01:30 PM by CarltonTheBear »

Offline Nik Bethune

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 26897
  • All posts approved by CCP
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #42 on: January 02, 2020, 11:02:18 PM »

Dermott's going to effectively have no leverage and will almost certainly be looking for a bridge deal. I don't know about less than Holl but he's definitely not going to be getting a lot more.
Nothing can have value without being an object of utility
-Karl Marx

Online Guilt Trip

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 5084
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #43 on: January 02, 2020, 11:09:31 PM »

Dermott's going to effectively have no leverage and will almost certainly be looking for a bridge deal. I don't know about less than Holl but he's definitely not going to be getting a lot more.
That bodes well for the Leafs.

Offline Nik Bethune

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 26897
  • All posts approved by CCP
    • View Profile
Re: Justin Holl signs 3-year extension
« Reply #44 on: January 02, 2020, 11:18:52 PM »

Dermott's going to effectively have no leverage and will almost certainly be looking for a bridge deal. I don't know about less than Holl but he's definitely not going to be getting a lot more.
That bodes well for the Leafs.

He'll be going into negotiations without a 70 game or 20 point season(probably). Could he get 2.5 or something? I suppose. But what's the possible justification for anything higher?
Nothing can have value without being an object of utility
-Karl Marx