Author Topic: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion  (Read 24177 times)

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Online Guilt Trip

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #975 on: January 16, 2020, 12:07:46 PM »
Dermott seems to have regressed this year but I wouldn't give up on him.  He may still not be 100% recovered from his shoulder injury, and he's got the juice to play Keefe's style.

Personally, I would trade Muzzin at the deadline and work on finding someone like him next summer.  Maybe Liljegren will eventually grow into that role. 
Contract extension aside.... Why would we weaken the team for the stretch drive and playoffs and then look for a Muzzin in the off season??? That makes no sense to me. Now, if the Leafs can't get him signed to a reasonable extension then I'd say yes, just like Barrie if they plan on going that route. I don't expect the Leafs to trade either of those guys unless they totally fall out of the playoff race and aren't going to make the playoffs. I could see Barrie being the guy traded in that scenario. Muzz is the type of D man this team needs. I also don't see Liljegren turning into a Muzzin type D man.

Muzzin's got value and they aren't winning the Cup this year. 
You don't know who's winning the cup this year, just like every year. Muzz isn't getting traded if the Leafs are close to making the playoffs. Leafs won't be sellers.

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #975 on: January 16, 2020, 12:07:46 PM »

Online Hobbes

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #976 on: January 16, 2020, 12:23:31 PM »
Dermott seems to have regressed this year but I wouldn't give up on him.  He may still not be 100% recovered from his shoulder injury, and he's got the juice to play Keefe's style.

Personally, I would trade Muzzin at the deadline and work on finding someone like him next summer.  Maybe Liljegren will eventually grow into that role. 
Contract extension aside.... Why would we weaken the team for the stretch drive and playoffs and then look for a Muzzin in the off season??? That makes no sense to me. Now, if the Leafs can't get him signed to a reasonable extension then I'd say yes, just like Barrie if they plan on going that route. I don't expect the Leafs to trade either of those guys unless they totally fall out of the playoff race and aren't going to make the playoffs. I could see Barrie being the guy traded in that scenario. Muzz is the type of D man this team needs. I also don't see Liljegren turning into a Muzzin type D man.

Muzzin's got value and they aren't winning the Cup this year. 
You don't know who's winning the cup this year, just like every year. Muzz isn't getting traded if the Leafs are close to making the playoffs. Leafs won't be sellers.

If management pulls the rug out from under the players' feet by trading away legit players (the sorts of players that other teams would actually trade for at the deadline because they think that player would help them in a cup run) I suspect they wouldn't be very happy campers. Even if they don't stand much chance of winning the Cup, at least give them a chance to compete and for a round or two or three to better learn what it takes to win. They aren't going to learn anything at all productive on the golf course.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #977 on: January 16, 2020, 12:27:18 PM »
Muzzin's got value and they aren't winning the Cup this year. 

The team with the 4th best winning percentage while their current coach is employed has no shot at the Cup? Come on.

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #978 on: January 16, 2020, 12:28:56 PM »
Dermott seems to have regressed this year but I wouldn't give up on him.  He may still not be 100% recovered from his shoulder injury, and he's got the juice to play Keefe's style.

Personally, I would trade Muzzin at the deadline and work on finding someone like him next summer.  Maybe Liljegren will eventually grow into that role. 
Contract extension aside.... Why would we weaken the team for the stretch drive and playoffs and then look for a Muzzin in the off season??? That makes no sense to me. Now, if the Leafs can't get him signed to a reasonable extension then I'd say yes, just like Barrie if they plan on going that route. I don't expect the Leafs to trade either of those guys unless they totally fall out of the playoff race and aren't going to make the playoffs. I could see Barrie being the guy traded in that scenario. Muzz is the type of D man this team needs. I also don't see Liljegren turning into a Muzzin type D man.

Muzzin's got value and they aren't winning the Cup this year. 
You don't know who's winning the cup this year, just like every year. Muzz isn't getting traded if the Leafs are close to making the playoffs. Leafs won't be sellers.

If management pulls the rug out from under the players' feet by trading away legit players (the sorts of players that other teams would actually trade for at the deadline because they think that player would help them in a cup run) I suspect they wouldn't be very happy campers. Even if they don't stand much chance of winning the Cup, at least give them a chance to compete and for a round or two or three to better learn what it takes to win. They aren't going to learn anything at all productive on the golf course.

Trouble with this line of thinking is that it's helped lessen our prospect pool.  Bozak, JVR, Jake all lost for zilch.  Poor asset management.  And if anything the team looks less primed to make a run this year than last.

Either re-sign him before the deadline or else trade him then.  But they can't let him walk for nothing.

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #979 on: January 16, 2020, 12:29:52 PM »
Muzzin's got value and they aren't winning the Cup this year. 

The team with the 4th best winning percentage while their current coach is employed has no shot at the Cup? Come on.

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Online Hobbes

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #980 on: January 16, 2020, 12:48:18 PM »
Trouble with this line of thinking is that it's helped lessen our prospect pool.  Bozak, JVR, Jake all lost for zilch.  Poor asset management.  And if anything the team looks less primed to make a run this year than last.

Either re-sign him before the deadline or else trade him then.  But they can't let him walk for nothing.

I understand where you're coming from but I disagree with your assessment. Yes, the contracts of those three were allowed to expire and the Leafs can't point to any draft picks or other players that they received directly in exchange, but that's not poor asset management. The experience gained by the rest of the players on the roster is an asset. The available roster spots are an asset. The available cap dollars are an asset. Allowing other players to develop at their natural pace rather than be thrust into positions they weren't ready for is an asset.

How exactly you place a value on those things is a lot more complex (and subjective) than being able to point to a lovely late 1st round pick that you got in trade (who also might be a bust) but it's not zero. If you look around the league there are plenty of respectable players who reach free agency who came from teams who kept them for unsuccessful cup runs rather than flip them at the trade deadline. Are all NHL GMs idiots for doing so? If it's such terrible asset management, why isn't it only the absolute worst of the worst dregs of NHL-dom that become available on July 1st?
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Online Guilt Trip

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #981 on: January 16, 2020, 12:57:18 PM »


Either re-sign him before the deadline or else trade him then.  But they can't let him walk for nothing.
But you didn't say that option before. You said trade him and then look for a Muzz in the off season. Bobby Mac is saying they're talking extension with him now. If the Leafs have zero chance of re-signing him because the ask is too much, then they should explore trading him but still you have to be very careful with the mindset of the team. You don't want to send a message that you don't believe in them. The experience gained is more valuable than the 2nd round pick you're getting.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #982 on: January 16, 2020, 01:23:03 PM »
We shouldn't even consider trading Muzzin unless we're like 5 points out of a playoff spot which I'm sure we won't be.

Our window for Cup contention opened last year.

Our scouts and development system will need to do the best they can with the picks/prospects we can draft and sign.

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #983 on: January 16, 2020, 01:50:27 PM »
I understand where you're coming from but I disagree with your assessment. Yes, the contracts of those three were allowed to expire and the Leafs can't point to any draft picks or other players that they received directly in exchange, but that's not poor asset management. The experience gained by the rest of the players on the roster is an asset. The available roster spots are an asset. The available cap dollars are an asset. Allowing other players to develop at their natural pace rather than be thrust into positions they weren't ready for is an asset.

How exactly you place a value on those things is a lot more complex (and subjective) than being able to point to a lovely late 1st round pick that you got in trade (who also might be a bust) but it's not zero. If you look around the league there are plenty of respectable players who reach free agency who came from teams who kept them for unsuccessful cup runs rather than flip them at the trade deadline. Are all NHL GMs idiots for doing so? If it's such terrible asset management, why isn't it only the absolute worst of the worst dregs of NHL-dom that become available on July 1st?

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Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #984 on: January 16, 2020, 01:51:46 PM »
How exactly you place a value on those things is a lot more complex (and subjective) than being able to point to a lovely late 1st round pick that you got in trade (who also might be a bust) but it's not zero.

The thing is, it might be. Hell it might be less than zero. "Experience" is not a tangible or definitive thing and something like "A player benefits more from a playoff appearance than missing the playoffs" is not a fact-based statement but an opinion. We don't know what "experience" might have been gained if those guys were traded and the team's end of year position changed as a result(or even if it would have) and what affect it may have had on our young players. We don't know what the team might have done with those assets in terms of adding players instead of picks and what the subsequent "experience" gain might have been elsewhere.

We do know that the team doesn't have those assets. Likewise, I think it's fair to say that keeping JVR and Bozak around was not for a "Cup Run" but rather for scraping into the playoffs where the team had an entertaining but ultimately doomed first round exit.
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Offline Frank E

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #985 on: January 16, 2020, 02:18:42 PM »
How exactly you place a value on those things is a lot more complex (and subjective) than being able to point to a lovely late 1st round pick that you got in trade (who also might be a bust) but it's not zero.

The thing is, it might be. Hell it might be less than zero. "Experience" is not a tangible or definitive thing and something like "A player benefits more from a playoff appearance than missing the playoffs" is not a fact-based statement but an opinion. We don't know what "experience" might have been gained if those guys were traded and the team's end of year position changed as a result(or even if it would have) and what affect it may have had on our young players. We don't know what the team might have done with those assets in terms of adding players instead of picks and what the subsequent "experience" gain might have been elsewhere.

We do know that the team doesn't have those assets. Likewise, I think it's fair to say that keeping JVR and Bozak around was not for a "Cup Run" but rather for scraping into the playoffs where the team had an entertaining but ultimately doomed first round exit.

As a rule, I think they should trade away expiring contracts if there's good value in return.

We have a couple of years of history now of walking guys into free agency.  If the Leafs are indeed looking for perpetual competitive "contending" teams, then I think these are the policies that you're going to have to respect in order to keep your prospect cupboard full.

I think the problem here is that Dubas didn't get either guy under a reasonable contract...yet.

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #986 on: January 16, 2020, 02:24:12 PM »
How exactly you place a value on those things is a lot more complex (and subjective) than being able to point to a lovely late 1st round pick that you got in trade (who also might be a bust) but it's not zero.

The thing is, it might be. Hell it might be less than zero. "Experience" is not a tangible or definitive thing and something like "A player benefits more from a playoff appearance than missing the playoffs" is not a fact-based statement but an opinion. We don't know what "experience" might have been gained if those guys were traded and the team's end of year position changed as a result(or even if it would have) and what affect it may have had on our young players. We don't know what the team might have done with those assets in terms of adding players instead of picks and what the subsequent "experience" gain might have been elsewhere.

We do know that the team doesn't have those assets. Likewise, I think it's fair to say that keeping JVR and Bozak around was not for a "Cup Run" but rather for scraping into the playoffs where the team had an entertaining but ultimately doomed first round exit.

Just because you can't precisely define or quantify a thing doesn't mean it doesn't exist (just ask dark matter). It would appear that a fairly large number of people who make a career of being NHL GMs and NHL coaches place a non-zero value on experience and far be it from me to say that they're wrong. If you think they are, fine by me too.

I'm not saying I place tremendous value on it either, though. If the best offer the Leafs could get for any one of those players was deemed by management to be of lesser value than keeping them around for an extra few months, I can live with it. When they go, they still open up 1 contract spot and $x of cap space, both of which have value in this league. If someone was offering up 1st round picks for JVR or Bozak or Gards as a rental, I would have hoped the Leafs would have taken it. If the offers weren't enticing enough, I'm prepared to accept that there is at least some value to having kept them as an own-rental.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Online Hobbes

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #987 on: January 16, 2020, 02:28:08 PM »
As a rule, I think they should trade away expiring contracts if there's good value in return.

We have a couple of years of history now of walking guys into free agency.  If the Leafs are indeed looking for perpetual competitive "contending" teams, then I think these are the policies that you're going to have to respect in order to keep your prospect cupboard full.

I think the problem here is that Dubas didn't get either guy under a reasonable contract...yet.
As a sustainable model, you have a specific core that you keep together. You surround them with good young players on cheap ELC contracts or decent bridge/2nd contracts. You then flip these still youngish players for picks before they hit their paydirt 3rd contracts. Those are they guys who pay for your deadline rentals (which you'll note other cup-contenders often go out and acquire for a run, even knowing that they'll walk at the end of the season) or parlay into extra picks.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #988 on: January 16, 2020, 02:32:10 PM »
Hobbes you made some good points but as Nik points out they are kind of over-subtle.  I like Frank's rule of thumb.  There, I agreed with you 3.

CTB, you and I will have to disagree at to whether the window is open, shut, or cracked.

GT, no I didn't say that originally but nonetheless my original opinion still holds: I'd trade him.  He's got the most value and they should maximize the return.  They aren't going to get far in the playoffs with the defense as now constituted, even with the godlike Sandin in the lineup.

If we could somehow trade Barrie and Ceci too, all the better.  As if.

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #989 on: January 16, 2020, 02:40:13 PM »
Just because you can't precisely define or quantify a thing doesn't mean it doesn't exist (just ask dark matter). It would appear that a fairly large number of people who make a career of being NHL GMs and NHL coaches place a non-zero value on experience and far be it from me to say that they're wrong. If you think they are, fine by me too.

I think you're missing the point a little bit. I'm not saying "experience" doesn't exist, I'm saying that "experience" in and of itself isn't a specific thing. It's like the word attitude. I appreciate "I have an attitude" may be dumb person shorthand for something but without positive or negative qualifiers it's meaningless. The assertion you're making isn't that "experience" is good it's that a certain kind of experience, making the playoffs as early and as often as possible, is better for a player's development than another kind of experience.

The problem there is that, despite the opinions of the people who get paid handsomely to run NHL teams and very rarely have bad opinions on things, there's just no way to really have a meaningful position on that. It's taking a whole host of things and trying to cram them through the lens of human psychology to get a definitive answer but things don't work that way. It's not Dungeons and Dragons where making the playoffs gets a player 100 experience points to spend on upgrading his skills. 

And honestly, making the opposite argument, is pretty easy even if it's just as specious. Maybe the "Experience" of missing the playoffs lights a fire under young guys. Burns it into them the sort of commitment and dedication they need if they don't ever want it to happen again. Sid Crosby missed the playoffs his first year. So did Alex Ovechkin. Pat Kane and Johnathan Toews did. Anze Kopitar missed the playoffs a few years to start his career. If anything it seems like it's much more common for the best players on cup winners to have experience with frustration and failure at a young age. I've made this point many, many times in the past but anyone who tries to sell you that winning early or being in a winning environment as a young player is really important to their development really needs to explain all of the really, really well respected players and leaders that came out of the late 80's/early 90's Nordiques.

I'm not saying I place tremendous value on it either, though. If the best offer the Leafs could get for any one of those players was deemed by management to be of lesser value than keeping them around for an extra few months, I can live with it. When they go, they still open up 1 contract spot and $x of cap space, both of which have value in this league. If someone was offering up 1st round picks for JVR or Bozak or Gards as a rental, I would have hoped the Leafs would have taken it. If the offers weren't enticing enough, I'm prepared to accept that there is at least some value to having kept them as an own-rental.

Those cap dollars and roster spots only have "value" if they're there when they otherwise wouldn't be. Trade them at the deadline or let them walk as FA's and those "valuable assets" are on the books either way. Counting them as upsides to the team's decision making is not good accounting practice.
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Re: 2019-2020 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion
« Reply #989 on: January 16, 2020, 02:40:13 PM »