Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]

[CarltonTheBear]

Matthew Tkachuk 3 x $7M / $21M total @NHLFlames

— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) September 25, 2019

[Zee]

Matthew Tkachuk 3 x $7M / $21M total @NHLFlames

— Renaud Lavoie (@renlavoietva) September 25, 2019

EV predicted $6.97 for a 3 year bridge.  It's eerie how accurate they were outside of Marner.

[Nik]

Another deal that pretty clearly establishes Point's deal as being outside of the current market teams are dealing with.

[Zee]

Another deal that pretty clearly establishes Point's deal as being outside of the current market teams are dealing with.

And yet, even if you consider Point's deal an "outlier", Evolving Wild's model for his cap hit was only 400k off.  So they have a system of figuring out what these players should be signing for, and it seems to work for the majority of RFAs, except Marner.  They were $2M off in the Marner prediction.   So who's the outlier?

[Nik]

So who's the outlier?

Point. I cannot answer for some random website's methodology.

[CarltonTheBear]

Over the last 24 hours, I've been hearing some chatter from trusted sources that an NHL team is seriously considering an offer sheet for #Flames RFA F Matthew Tkachuk. As widely reported, Tkachuk and #Flames are far apart. More teams also thinking about trading for him too.

— MurphysLaw74 (@MurphysLaw74) September 24, 2019

Nailed it.

[Zee]

So who's the outlier?

Point. I cannot answer for some random website's methodology.

I see.  So their methodology seems to work for the majority of RFAs and they're usually within 500k of the actual contract but you have a better methodology.

[Nik]

I see.  So their methodology seems to work for the majority of RFAs and they're usually within 500k of the actual contract but you have a better methodology.

I have no idea how they arrive at their numbers and I'm not passing any value judgements on it. That doesn't change the fact that there were a bunch of contracts signed, both this year and past years, where Marner's production and cap hit % compared pretty closely and none with Point's.

[Hobbes]

Much as we might have wished for a deal like this for Marner, I have a sneaky suspicion that in 4 years' time we're going to be really happy with his cap hit when compared to what these bridge-deal signers are going to be commanding. That will be the first year of the new US TV deal (expected to be a BIG increase) plus just natural inflation of a couple % per year. We'll have to re-up Reilly (and Kapanen) that year, but the rest of the core is signed for another 2 or 3. Short term financial pain for long term gain.

[disco]

Wow, bridge deals for all. Only one left is Raantanen right? If he goes bridge then the only top-tier RFA that went long-term was Marner. It's tough to compare the contracts then. Everybody is gaga for the low AAV but 3 and 6 years is a big difference.

[Nik]

Wow, bridge deals for all. Only one left is Raantanen right?

And the Winnipeg guys.

[Zee]

Much as we might have wished for a deal like this for Marner, I have a sneaky suspicion that in 4 years' time we're going to be really happy with his cap hit when compared to what these bridge-deal signers are going to be commanding. That will be the first year of the new US TV deal (expected to be a BIG increase) plus just natural inflation of a couple % per year. We'll have to re-up Reilly (and Kapanen) that year, but the rest of the core is signed for another 2 or 3. Short term financial pain for long term gain.

I'm not so sure that in 3 years the cap will have increased so much that Tkachuk or Point will suddenly jump from $7ish million to 12M+  Could it happen?  Sure I guess, but more likely they'll sign in the 11 range which Marner is amost at right now.

[CarltonTheBear]

Wow, bridge deals for all. Only one left is Raantanen right?

And the Winnipeg guys.

Don't forget Honka!

[princedpw]

I see.  So their methodology seems to work for the majority of RFAs and they're usually within 500k of the actual contract but you have a better methodology.

I have no idea how they arrive at their numbers and I'm not passing any value judgements on it. That doesn't change the fact that there were a bunch of contracts signed, both this year and past years, where Marner's production and cap hit % compared pretty closely and none with Point's.

Can you remind me what those contracts were?  Were any of them RFA wingers that signed for 6 years or less?

[Nik]

Can you remind me what those contracts were?  Were any of them RFA wingers that signed for 6 years or less?

Sure. Konecny and Boeser are two. Kessel's another.

edit: But with that said, I think the scope of that question is kind of ridiculous. If Marner got a certain percentage of the cap and then a much less productive center got on the surface a much more lucrative deal should we shrug our shoulders and say that those things are just fundamental incomparable? Or a 6 year deal and an 8 year deal?