Author Topic: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]  (Read 1435 times)

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Online CarltonTheBear

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Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« on: September 25, 2019, 08:53:00 AM »

Online Zee

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2019, 09:02:00 AM »

EV predicted $6.97 for a 3 year bridge.  It's eerie how accurate they were outside of Marner.

Offline Nik

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2019, 09:06:26 AM »

Another deal that pretty clearly establishes Point's deal as being outside of the current market teams are dealing with.
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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2019, 09:07:41 AM »

Another deal that pretty clearly establishes Point's deal as being outside of the current market teams are dealing with.

And yet, even if you consider Point's deal an "outlier", Evolving Wild's model for his cap hit was only 400k off.  So they have a system of figuring out what these players should be signing for, and it seems to work for the majority of RFAs, except Marner.  They were $2M off in the Marner prediction.   So who's the outlier?

Offline Nik

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2019, 09:11:16 AM »
So who's the outlier?

Point. I cannot answer for some random website's methodology.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2019, 09:11:56 AM »

Nailed it.

Online Zee

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2019, 09:14:57 AM »
So who's the outlier?

Point. I cannot answer for some random website's methodology.

I see.  So their methodology seems to work for the majority of RFAs and they're usually within 500k of the actual contract but you have a better methodology.

Offline Nik

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2019, 09:19:08 AM »
I see.  So their methodology seems to work for the majority of RFAs and they're usually within 500k of the actual contract but you have a better methodology.

I have no idea how they arrive at their numbers and I'm not passing any value judgements on it. That doesn't change the fact that there were a bunch of contracts signed, both this year and past years, where Marner's production and cap hit % compared pretty closely and none with Point's.
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Offline Hobbes

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2019, 09:41:46 AM »
Much as we might have wished for a deal like this for Marner, I have a sneaky suspicion that in 4 years' time we're going to be really happy with his cap hit when compared to what these bridge-deal signers are going to be commanding. That will be the first year of the new US TV deal (expected to be a BIG increase) plus just natural inflation of a couple % per year. We'll have to re-up Reilly (and Kapanen) that year, but the rest of the core is signed for another 2 or 3. Short term financial pain for long term gain.
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Offline disco

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2019, 09:46:06 AM »
Wow, bridge deals for all. Only one left is Raantanen right? If he goes bridge then the only top-tier RFA that went long-term was Marner. It's tough to compare the contracts then. Everybody is gaga for the low AAV but 3 and 6 years is a big difference.

Offline Nik

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2019, 09:47:19 AM »
Wow, bridge deals for all. Only one left is Raantanen right?

And the Winnipeg guys.
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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2019, 09:48:23 AM »
Much as we might have wished for a deal like this for Marner, I have a sneaky suspicion that in 4 years' time we're going to be really happy with his cap hit when compared to what these bridge-deal signers are going to be commanding. That will be the first year of the new US TV deal (expected to be a BIG increase) plus just natural inflation of a couple % per year. We'll have to re-up Reilly (and Kapanen) that year, but the rest of the core is signed for another 2 or 3. Short term financial pain for long term gain.

I'm not so sure that in 3 years the cap will have increased so much that Tkachuk or Point will suddenly jump from $7ish million to 12M+  Could it happen?  Sure I guess, but more likely they'll sign in the 11 range which Marner is amost at right now.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2019, 09:49:55 AM »
Wow, bridge deals for all. Only one left is Raantanen right?

And the Winnipeg guys.

Don't forget Honka!

Offline princedpw

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #13 on: September 25, 2019, 10:11:26 AM »
I see.  So their methodology seems to work for the majority of RFAs and they're usually within 500k of the actual contract but you have a better methodology.

I have no idea how they arrive at their numbers and I'm not passing any value judgements on it. That doesn't change the fact that there were a bunch of contracts signed, both this year and past years, where Marner's production and cap hit % compared pretty closely and none with Point's.

Can you remind me what those contracts were?  Were any of them RFA wingers that signed for 6 years or less?

Offline Nik

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Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« Reply #14 on: September 25, 2019, 10:36:50 AM »
Can you remind me what those contracts were?  Were any of them RFA wingers that signed for 6 years or less?

Sure. Konecny and Boeser are two. Kessel's another.

edit: But with that said, I think the scope of that question is kind of ridiculous. If Marner got a certain percentage of the cap and then a much less productive center got on the surface a much more lucrative deal should we shrug our shoulders and say that those things are just fundamental incomparable? Or a 6 year deal and an 8 year deal?
« Last Edit: September 25, 2019, 10:47:16 AM by Nik the Trik »
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