Author Topic: Mitch Marner: what now?  (Read 35693 times)

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Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #225 on: June 03, 2019, 06:12:41 PM »
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #225 on: June 03, 2019, 06:12:41 PM »

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #226 on: June 03, 2019, 06:28:25 PM »
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #227 on: June 03, 2019, 06:32:27 PM »
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

Maybe, but if it was also a year shorter so he's gets to UFA quicker it's worth more than 500k suddenly.

Offline Zee

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Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #228 on: June 03, 2019, 10:06:36 PM »
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

Maybe, but if it was also a year shorter so he's gets to UFA quicker it's worth more than 500k suddenly.


He signs an offer sheet he immediately goes from one of the most beloved Leafs to one of the most hated ex-Leafs

Online Bullfrog

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #229 on: June 03, 2019, 11:01:11 PM »
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

The deal would be five years max at that AAV or else the compensation would be up to the 4 first rounders (e.g. six year deal at $9.5M is $57M/5 = 11.4M for compensation purposes). I can't imagine any GM thinking he's worth $10.5M on a five year deal. He's a hell of a player, that's for sure, and he's going to get a tonne of cash, but he's not going to be the highest paid winger in the league.

I could be wrong of course.

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #230 on: June 04, 2019, 12:04:49 AM »
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

The deal would be five years max at that AAV or else the compensation would be up to the 4 first rounders (e.g. six year deal at $9.5M is $57M/5 = 11.4M for compensation purposes). I can't imagine any GM thinking he's worth $10.5M on a five year deal. He's a hell of a player, that's for sure, and he's going to get a tonne of cash, but he's not going to be the highest paid winger in the league.

I could be wrong of course.

Ah yes, the total divided by 5 or term, whatever is less. So that would be a four firsts situation. That's better.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #231 on: June 04, 2019, 12:35:45 AM »
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

If he knows the Leafs will match and wants that extra $500k, why wouldn't he?

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #232 on: June 04, 2019, 04:52:06 AM »
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

If he knows the Leafs will match and wants that extra $500k, why wouldn't he?
He doesn't know if the Leafs would match. All he knows is the Leafs offer x, team b offers x + 500k. In the court of public opinion he'll be seen as a guy who chose to leave the Leafs over 500k. Says to me he is all about the cash and like Zee said, he'll be hated. Now if someone offers him 11, 11.5  I wouldn't blame him for signing it. No one would expect him to turn down that kind of cash.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #233 on: June 04, 2019, 08:48:18 AM »

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline mr grieves

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #234 on: June 04, 2019, 09:42:36 AM »

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

Online princedpw

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #235 on: June 04, 2019, 10:23:18 AM »

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he canít go that high, I wouldnít sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. Iíve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, iíd like a higher number but I donít think Iíd risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But thatís just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

Offline Bender

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #236 on: June 04, 2019, 10:56:49 AM »

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

Worst case you have a player getting $1m more above market value. Although you've got to wonder what his trade value is if a team is willing to sign him to that high a price. I'm not sure too many teams will use the offer sheet, I think it leads to too much bad blood and makes it impossible to negotiate a deal again in good faith for a long time. The question in my mind is when does the contract become a poison pill? What is someone offers him $11m, however unlikely. Do you take the picks or do you sign and hope to trade?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #237 on: June 04, 2019, 11:00:27 AM »
If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he canít go that high, I wouldnít sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. Iíve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, iíd like a higher number but I donít think Iíd risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But thatís just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

Leaving aside how much some of those factors are likely to matter to Mitch or you(can't you sing Bon Jovi on other teams?), I think something we saw with the Matthews deal is that if the number being offered isn't one Marner is thrilled with he's not likely to take it at 7 years vs. a significantly shorter term. If Marner thinks he's worth more than 9.5 now, he's sure as heck going to think his UFA years are worth more than that.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Chris

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #238 on: June 04, 2019, 11:02:49 AM »

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he canít go that high, I wouldnít sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. Iíve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, iíd like a higher number but I donít think Iíd risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But thatís just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

I hope you're Mitch! I'd like to believe it isn't all about the money for Mitch, and that the stuff we're hearing is coming from his father.

As for the fans, not sure how well they'll react if Mitch and his crew hold the Leafs hostage for a ridiculous salary that handcuffs the team in other areas. Yeah, a defense with Holl and Marincin playing major minutes sounds great! Stanley Cup, here we come.

Offline Zee

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #239 on: June 04, 2019, 11:06:40 AM »

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

Worst case you have a player getting $1m more above market value. Although you've got to wonder what his trade value is if a team is willing to sign him to that high a price. I'm not sure too many teams will use the offer sheet, I think it leads to too much bad blood and makes it impossible to negotiate a deal again in good faith for a long time. The question in my mind is when does the contract become a poison pill? What is someone offers him $11m, however unlikely. Do you take the picks or do you sign and hope to trade?

I think at 11, you think long and hard about the 4 first rounders depending on which team he's signing for.  Leafs can take that cap space and go into the UFA market for 1 or 2 other players to replace Mitch and then hope that 1 or 2 of the first rounders are top 10, OR you can use the first rounders as currency to trade for someone good.  What's 2 first round unprotected picks worth?  Probably a lot.  Trade 2, keep 2, the possibilities are there.

This all assumes some mythical offer sheet appears, I'm still not 100% sold on that.  GMs don't want to do that because it'll affect their own team's salary structure, and inflate the overall market for players which is bad for all teams.  It's not collusion, but it's an unsaid rule that offer sheets are no good for anybody.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #239 on: June 04, 2019, 11:06:40 AM »