Author Topic: Mitch Marner: what now?  (Read 35813 times)

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Offline Frank E

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #825 on: June 28, 2019, 04:45:46 PM »
I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

If a player is really that terrified of a career ending injury, which are pretty rare even in a sport like hockey, they can get an insurance policy that protects them in that event.

I don't think any insurance company is going to write a policy that will pay them tens of millions in lost potential income ... would they?

You can get an insurance policy on anything, and it's a sure thing that many of these guys have injury policies with stiff premiums, given their line of work.  I wouldn't doubt these guys are heavily marketed to by insurance companies, given their incomes.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #825 on: June 28, 2019, 04:45:46 PM »

Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #826 on: June 28, 2019, 04:46:32 PM »
I don't think any insurance company is going to write a policy that will pay them tens of millions in lost potential income ... would they?

Insurance companies will insure anything for just about any amount of money if you pay a sufficient premium. I mean as is teams get insurance on contracts that can pay tens of millions of dollars.

OK then, but it would cost Mitch many pretty pennies.  I say, take the mountains of cash now, worry about potential lost earnings that would make those mountains marginally higher later.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #827 on: June 28, 2019, 04:47:40 PM »
I don't know how contract guarantees and insurance and all that works but what if he signs say a 3x8 or whatever and then had a career-ending injury?  Wouldn't he have been better off locking in an 8x10?

If a player is really that terrified of a career ending injury, which are pretty rare even in a sport like hockey, they can get an insurance policy that protects them in that event.

I don't think any insurance company is going to write a policy that will pay them tens of millions in lost potential income ... would they?

You can get an insurance policy on anything, and it's a sure thing that many of these guys have injury policies with stiff premiums, given their line of work.  I wouldn't doubt these guys are heavily marketed to by insurance companies, given their incomes.

I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #828 on: June 28, 2019, 04:50:54 PM »
OK then, but it would cost Mitch many pretty pennies.  I say, take the mountains of cash now, worry about potential lost earnings that would make those mountains marginally higher later.

I'm not sure it would cost him all that much. Again, legitimate career ending injuries are pretty rare for young guys and covering the cost of the policy may very well amount to a negligible consideration when negotiating his next deal.

Hockey players as a rule are small c conservative about their money so a lot of them do take the bigger deals but I really think that if a top tier guy took a series of shorter term deals and was serious about maximizing the dollar value on each deal it could legitimately end up being worth 10-20 million over the course of a career.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #829 on: June 28, 2019, 05:03:49 PM »
I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

Admittedly I'm no expert but I think the entire premise of the insurance business was that things got insured for roughly what they're worth. If a player values his career earnings at 10 million or 20 million or 50 million and wants to insure that then the insurance company does their actuarial stuff, comes up with a premium high enough to make it a likelihood that they end up in the black on the whole thing.

And if you think that in order to do that the premiums would need to be outrageously high, this is where we get back to you probably overestimating the risk of a career ending injury.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online Hobbes

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #830 on: June 28, 2019, 05:06:49 PM »
I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

Admittedly I'm no expert but I think the entire premise of the insurance business was that things got insured for roughly what they're worth. If a player values his career earnings at 10 million or 20 million or 50 million and wants to insure that then the insurance company does their actuarial stuff, comes up with a premium high enough to make it a likelihood that they end up in the black on the whole thing.

And if you think that in order to do that the premiums would need to be outrageously high, this is where we get back to you probably overestimating the risk of a career ending injury.

http://www.suttonspecialrisk.com/Sell_Sheets/SSR%20Professional%20Sports%20Coverage.pdf

And that's just one of a few dozen companies that came up when I googled for professional athlete insurance policies
« Last Edit: June 28, 2019, 05:09:08 PM by Hobbes »
It's not denial...I'm just very selective about the reality I accept.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #831 on: June 28, 2019, 05:11:01 PM »
I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

Admittedly I'm no expert but I think the entire premise of the insurance business was that things got insured for roughly what they're worth. If a player values his career earnings at 10 million or 20 million or 50 million and wants to insure that then the insurance company does their actuarial stuff, comes up with a premium high enough to make it a likelihood that they end up in the black on the whole thing.

And if you think that in order to do that the premiums would need to be outrageously high, this is where we get back to you probably overestimating the risk of a career ending injury.

http://www.suttonspecialrisk.com/Sell_Sheets/SSR%20Professional%20Sports%20Coverage.pdf

Yeah, I knew it existed. I know that a ton of football players in the states get big policies in their last year of NCAA play pre-draft ever since a big deal running back for Miami, I'm blanking on the exact guy, tore his ACL or something in his final bowl game. Obviously those guys are more limited in the size of policy than someone already making millions but they're still pretty big.

edit: a google search tells me the Miami running back I was thinking of was Willis McGahee.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online Joe S.

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #832 on: June 28, 2019, 05:19:52 PM »
So IF Marner were to sign an offer sheet and leave, how would he be received when that team comes to Toronto for the first time? Would it be like Tavares on Long Island? Do Leaf fans have it in them to behave that way?



Honestly who cares? I mean I guess you do but I really donít. How a bunch of people I donít know will react to a player who signed a contract with another team? What does it matter?

Online Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #833 on: June 28, 2019, 05:36:04 PM »
So IF Marner were to sign an offer sheet and leave, how would he be received when that team comes to Toronto for the first time? Would it be like Tavares on Long Island? Do Leaf fans have it in them to behave that way?



Honestly who cares? I mean I guess you do but I really donít. How a bunch of people I donít know will react to a player who signed a contract with another team? What does it matter?
If he's offered stupid money, all the power to him. Either way here's how it works.  I enjoy watching Marner play for the Leafs. I'm a Leafs fans and will be Leafs fans regardless of who puts on the jersey so it won't affect how I cheer for the team.

Offline Chris

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #834 on: June 28, 2019, 06:22:12 PM »
So IF Marner were to sign an offer sheet and leave, how would he be received when that team comes to Toronto for the first time? Would it be like Tavares on Long Island? Do Leaf fans have it in them to behave that way?

Honestly who cares? I mean I guess you do but I really donít. How a bunch of people I donít know will react to a player who signed a contract with another team? What does it matter?
I don't care that you don't care, but thanks for your precious response.

Offline Frycer14

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #835 on: June 28, 2019, 07:46:49 PM »
I think that people that are getting too emotionally invested in this need to realize that:

a) The player/agent is not negotiating with the fanbase. Stop taking it so personally.

b) Ownership considers all of their athletes primarily as commodities. Understanding this might contextualize the process.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #836 on: June 28, 2019, 07:58:51 PM »

It's a little funny that a bunch of hyper-involved fans seem so upset by the concept of an agent negotiating in the media when the only rationale for an agent to do that is the hope that hyper-involved fans will then put pressure on the GM to accept the player's demands.

So, really, the best approach to this if you don't like the tactics is to chill out.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #837 on: June 28, 2019, 08:51:56 PM »
I just doubt that those policies would pay out tens of millions, but OK.

Admittedly I'm no expert but I think the entire premise of the insurance business was that things got insured for roughly what they're worth. If a player values his career earnings at 10 million or 20 million or 50 million and wants to insure that then the insurance company does their actuarial stuff, comes up with a premium high enough to make it a likelihood that they end up in the black on the whole thing.

And if you think that in order to do that the premiums would need to be outrageously high, this is where we get back to you probably overestimating the risk of a career ending injury.

I'm out of my depth here too but it just seems like a stretch for a client to go to a company and say, "Hey, I just signed a contract for $50M but you know I could have signed for $80M but I decided not to, can you insure me for the difference if I crash my skateboard or Marchand licks me and I get debilitating hepatitis?"

I guess anything's possible but insuring someone for money they willingly turn down just seems weird.

Online Dappleganger

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #838 on: June 28, 2019, 10:49:10 PM »
I really want the Leafs to flip the script here. Sign Rantanen to an offer sheet that Colorado won't match and then tell Marner to go sign an offer sheet with someone else because the Leafs ain't signing ya.

Online Guilt Trip

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #839 on: June 28, 2019, 10:54:22 PM »
I really want the Leafs to flip the script here. Sign Rantanen to an offer sheet that Colorado won't match and then tell Marner to go sign an offer sheet with someone else because the Leafs ain't signing ya.

I'd rather have Marner. Brayden Point on the other hand...

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Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« Reply #839 on: June 28, 2019, 10:54:22 PM »