Author Topic: Nylander signs 6-year contract  (Read 14750 times)

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Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #150 on: December 02, 2018, 08:45:25 PM »
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2018, 08:53:40 PM by Nik the Trik »
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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #150 on: December 02, 2018, 08:45:25 PM »

Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #151 on: December 02, 2018, 08:46:02 PM »
https://theathletic.com/688914/2018/12/02/lebrun-which-side-won-the-nylander-deal-nhl-executives-and-agents-on-the-impact-on-the-market/

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“Short term it was good for both, but the (July 2, 2019) bonus makes me think we may see a trade after that is paid,” said an Eastern Conference team executive on Sunday.

I'm guessing Dorion or Tallon here.


Maybe there will be a 29 trade once the Matthews/Marner numbers come in, but not until.  If at all.

And why would they trade him, in strictly hockey terms?  The only thing I would think could trigger that is if the D gets shredded in the playoffs and they conclude that there won't be a Cup w/o an upgrade there.

Offline herman

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #152 on: December 02, 2018, 08:51:49 PM »
Maybe there will be a 29 trade once the Matthews/Marner numbers come in, but not until.  If at all.

And why would they trade him, in strictly hockey terms?  The only thing I would think could trigger that is if the D gets shredded in the playoffs and they conclude that there won't be a Cup w/o an upgrade there.

Trading Nylander is the stupidest idea for the Leafs because Kadri's deal is up in 4 years at age 32, and Naz is not getting anything else from us at that point. Nylander is the built-in replacement.

Offline herman

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #153 on: December 02, 2018, 08:58:21 PM »
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #154 on: December 02, 2018, 10:44:38 PM »
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.
That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I think over the long haul this contract will be fine but this season Nylander made off like a bandit.  Some kind of crazy insane signing bonus that made the contract work out to a $7.5 million AAV with only a ~$7 million cap hit after this season.  This was financial wizardry from Dubas and the Leafs.  Nylander got most of what he wanted and the Leafs flexed their financial muscle and kept the deal reasonable cap wise.

What I am wondering is, what happens if Matthews pulls a Nylander next season?  Or Marner?

Offline Kaberle15

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #155 on: December 03, 2018, 08:31:47 AM »
What I am wondering is, what happens if Matthews pulls a Nylander next season?  Or Marner?

The real problem is the 1st year cap hit if they hold out. Those extensions should be the top priority, a hell of front loaded contract like Tavares and Nylander in the 88 x 8 for Matthews and 80 x 8 for Marner. I would also give Matthews the C to sweet it up.

In no scenario the Leafs can afford a hold out next season.
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Offline Bender

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #156 on: December 03, 2018, 08:55:34 AM »
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.
That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I think over the long haul this contract will be fine but this season Nylander made off like a bandit.  Some kind of crazy insane signing bonus that made the contract work out to a $7.5 million AAV with only a ~$7 million cap hit after this season.  This was financial wizardry from Dubas and the Leafs.  Nylander got most of what he wanted and the Leafs flexed their financial muscle and kept the deal reasonable cap wise.

What I am wondering is, what happens if Matthews pulls a Nylander next season?  Or Marner?

Matthews is willing to sign a deal now. I don't see why the team doesn't consider him their McDavid and give him what he's looking for. I don't see this being a contentious negotiation.

Marner on the other hand.... Who knows. Technically any young talent can do what Nylander did now that the precedent has been set. But some players seem to be more flexible and would rather bet on themselves and take a 2-3yr bridge deal a la Subban/Kucherov and then take a longer deal afterward for more than what Nylander got AAV. We shall see....
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Offline Peter D.

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #157 on: December 03, 2018, 08:56:33 AM »
Glad this was resolved and finally over with.  But seeing in the end how it played out, can't help but think this could have been resolved three months ago with no need for this b.s.  And Nylander is no worse for wear finally from this dispute.  He did well and his agent deserves a little extra something as a result.

Really happy to have Nylander back in the fold.

Online princedpw

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #158 on: December 03, 2018, 08:59:33 AM »
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.
That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I’m just not that worried.  Guys miss chunks of games all the time and come back — most frequently due to injuries.  Eg, Matthews missed 14 games? Nylander will miss 30?

Sure, it may take a month before he is back in complete synch with his line mates. That doesn’t seem like the end of the world given the way the team is playing.  There is plenty of time for him to ramp up for the playoffs.

Offline cabber24

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #159 on: December 03, 2018, 09:11:09 AM »
I am happy with the deal. We're 19-8 and got him signed for 6 years under $7M. Life is good.

I blame the Oilers for the delay, stupid Draisaitl deal.
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Offline herman

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #160 on: December 03, 2018, 09:31:58 AM »
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/beyond-headlines-learned-dubas-nylander-saga/

Quote
There has never been a contract structured quite like it in NHL history.

The Leafs own tons of salary cap space this season and will start to feel the squeeze in 2019-20, so they came up with a way to pay Nylander heavy right away — to the tune of more than $17 million by July 1, making him whole and then some for the days missed because of the impasse — while gaming the cap system and keeping his AAV to $6.96 million for the final five years of the deal.

They also built in some lockout protection with annual signing bonuses of $3.5-million starting in 2020. They added a 10-team trade list in 2023-24, the only year he was eligible to receive such protection.

They basically guaranteed Nylander would walk away feeling good about the contract while keeping him within a range where they believe Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner can still be signed without breaking up the band.

The CBA's RFA deadline and cap hit calculation facilitated this particular salary structure that allowed both parties to feel like they won something. The picture Johnston paints is not one of animosity, though there were moments of frustration, but a group of people making some small concessions to solve a problem together.

Offline L K

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #161 on: December 03, 2018, 09:32:43 AM »
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.
That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I’m just not that worried.  Guys miss chunks of games all the time and come back — most frequently due to injuries.  Eg, Matthews missed 14 games? Nylander will miss 30?

Sure, it may take a month before he is back in complete synch with his line mates. That doesn’t seem like the end of the world given the way the team is playing.  There is plenty of time for him to ramp up for the playoffs.

At the end of the day we don't need elite Nylander in Game 42, but in Game 83.  He has 50 games to get into prime shape.

Offline Bender

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #162 on: December 03, 2018, 09:35:01 AM »
Glad this was resolved and finally over with.  But seeing in the end how it played out, can't help but think this could have been resolved three months ago with no need for this b.s.  And Nylander is no worse for wear finally from this dispute.  He did well and his agent deserves a little extra something as a result.

Really happy to have Nylander back in the fold.
I kind of view this as a CBA problem more than anything else. Lack of arbitration means each side is incentivized to dig in.
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Offline herman

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #163 on: December 03, 2018, 09:51:59 AM »
Also from the LeBrun round up of responses around the league:
Quote
Another agent said the $7.5 million comparable wouldn’t fly in his opinion.

“The 7.5 argument doesn’t really work — only real dollar matters,” he said. “You can, of course, argue that but it defies logic based on real dollars. Even an arbitrator would recognize it’s at 6.969.”

When I was first contemplating ideas for how the lost-time cap hit calculations could work in the Leafs and Nylander's favour (which ended up being the result), I wondered if the 'actual' AAV would come into play as the benchmark for comparison.

I like that Pridham and Gilman basically structured it to pay out Nylander this season as if it was a whole year's salary, using whatever flexibility they had on hand to make Willy comfortable with the number they were settling on.

Offline Frank E

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #164 on: December 03, 2018, 10:27:20 AM »
It looked a little uneventful when Nylander got in at Pearson.

Wearing a hoodie and stuff...who was the guy that picked him up?

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Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« Reply #164 on: December 03, 2018, 10:27:20 AM »