Author Topic: Ranking Prospects 2018-19  (Read 18955 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 19528
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #90 on: August 03, 2018, 11:26:36 AM »
The fact that he choose to stay in the KHL for another year, rather than signing with the Leafs and play Marlies hockey, probably isn't a good sign when he's 22 years old.

Having said that, I don't know that the Leafs even offered him a contract.

He felt he had unfinished business in the KHL as last season didn't go as well as he wanted (even though he markedly improved, especially following the coaching change). The KHL also pays a lot better and this coach actually likes him and wants to use him in key situations. Normally players of his age the past couple of seasons get nominal playing time in the KHL and yo-yo'd to the junior or farm team leagues (MHL, VHL). He has held his own and continued to gain traction in a league that really doesn't do any favours for the youth.

There is no time limit on when the Leafs need to offer Korshkov (or any MHL/KHL draft picks) a bona fide contract as we retain their rights indefinitely.

While I would have much preferred some higher end skill with this pick (DeBrincat, Girard), Korshkov is not a bad player in the slightest and can really be slotted into the wings at any position and give the team value. When Hyman/Brown are priced out of our roster, Korshkov, Grundstrom are going to be solid replacements with higher scoring upside. Korshkov is Engvall/Marchment/Gauthier height (and reach) but 2-3x their speed.

Edit: Adding a recent reddit report on Korshkov
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 11:59:33 AM by herman »
#BeBlessed

Offline herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 19528
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #91 on: August 06, 2018, 12:13:50 PM »

This chart shows the difference between Dubas' draft this offseason, compared to the Lou drafts from the past two years, for OHL defensemen only.
#BeBlessed

TMLfans.ca

Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #91 on: August 06, 2018, 12:13:50 PM »

Offline Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4893
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #92 on: August 06, 2018, 12:36:29 PM »
I'm not being critical of you here, herman, but that tweet is a pretty weak attempt at a compliment to Dubas for drafting this year...a simple PPG stat?

Offline Bullfrog

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 5485
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #93 on: August 06, 2018, 01:14:00 PM »
I think it's nonetheless engcouraging. I've always been of the opinion that even "defensive specialists" have to be able to produce big-time offense at the junior level. If you're already starting with someone who can't score at junior level, it's less likely they'll amount to anything at higher levels.

Offline herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 19528
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #94 on: August 06, 2018, 01:28:16 PM »
I'm not being critical of you here, herman, but that tweet is a pretty weak attempt at a compliment to Dubas for drafting this year...a simple PPG stat?

Bullfrog already outlined it, but PPG is one of the better indicators available publically that translates to NHL success. Yes, it is a bit simplistic and flat. pGPS is an alternative you might’ve be interested in that does comparisons with past players with similar profiles.

Here’s Rasmus Sandin’s profile for reference (pGPS is a bit further down).

I welcome criticism in any case :) people who see things differently from me can only help me triangulate a better picture at the end of the day, and that’s what discussion forums are for.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 01:30:00 PM by herman »
#BeBlessed

Online CarltonTheBear

  • Administrator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 26406
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #95 on: August 06, 2018, 02:37:39 PM »
I don't really think that chart is trying to prove that Dubas' draft was better than Hunter's, just that it's pretty clear they were going after different players. It's still entirely possible that Rasanen and Gordeev end up being the best two defencemen from those groups.

Offline Bullfrog

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 5485
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #96 on: August 06, 2018, 02:42:31 PM »
Agreed Mr Carl, that's how I see it and is also why I find it encouraging. If it was up to me, every single pick would be based on offensive potential.

Offline Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4893
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #97 on: August 06, 2018, 02:44:02 PM »
I'm not being critical of you here, herman, but that tweet is a pretty weak attempt at a compliment to Dubas for drafting this year...a simple PPG stat?

Bullfrog already outlined it, but PPG is one of the better indicators available publically that translates to NHL success. Yes, it is a bit simplistic and flat. pGPS is an alternative you might’ve be interested in that does comparisons with past players with similar profiles.

Here’s Rasmus Sandin’s profile for reference (pGPS is a bit further down).

I welcome criticism in any case :) people who see things differently from me can only help me triangulate a better picture at the end of the day, and that’s what discussion forums are for.

I don't have any issue with the pick, but it's not like he was an off the board pick, he was ranked right there.

Trying to frame this as a "Dubas vs. Lou/Hunter" pick is a little silly.  You don't have to look far to determine his points production, as a GM. 

Offline Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4893
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #98 on: August 06, 2018, 02:48:28 PM »
And really, just to add to my comment, I'm getting a little sick and tired of reading about how Dubas is about drafting skill, and Hunter/Lou was about size.

Hunter/Lou drafted plenty of skill over size over the past few years here.  They may have swung for the fences with some big d-men, but Dermott is a pretty strong example of what they drafted when they were picking high...other than the stupid Korshkov pick.

Offline Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4893
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #99 on: August 06, 2018, 02:54:38 PM »
I don't really think that chart is trying to prove that Dubas' draft was better than Hunter's, just that it's pretty clear they were going after different players. It's still entirely possible that Rasanen and Gordeev end up being the best two defencemen from those groups.

So the past 2 drafts, where which they picked Liljegren and Sandin in the first round?

Offline herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 19528
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #100 on: August 06, 2018, 04:55:30 PM »
I think Hunter is pretty high on skill and IQ, but under Lou’s tenure, it manifested as drafting for tools, relative to Dubas drafting for even strength results. 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2015/06/28/leafs-mark-hunter-works-hard-to-find-players-that-make-it-look-easy.html
Quote
“Skilled players have a better chance to get things done on the ice,” Hunter said. “You get a big, strong guy, it’s hard to develop skill. Guys that do have skill, you can develop them physically. They can get stronger. That’s how I look at it.

“The Detroit Red Wings have been doing that for years. They can get stronger, but you can’t put hockey sense into a player.”
« Last Edit: August 06, 2018, 06:07:02 PM by herman »
#BeBlessed

Offline Highlander

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 6904
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #101 on: August 06, 2018, 05:13:38 PM »
And really, just to add to my comment, I'm getting a little sick and tired of reading about how Dubas is about drafting skill, and Hunter/Lou was about size.

Hunter/Lou drafted plenty of skill over size over the past few years here.  They may have swung for the fences with some big d-men, but Dermott is a pretty strong example of what they drafted when they were picking high...other than the stupid Korshkov pick.
What do you mean Frankie, Koshkov could become the next Fred Modin
"In the beginners mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert's there are few"
                                           Sunryn Suzuki

Offline herman

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 19528
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #102 on: August 07, 2018, 09:22:42 AM »
20. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev

This is a pretty big debut for a freshly drafted non-first rounder.
#BeBlessed

Online CarltonTheBear

  • Administrator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 26406
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #103 on: August 07, 2018, 09:44:48 AM »
So the past 2 drafts, where which they picked Liljegren and Sandin in the first round?

Well yeah, it's kinda ironic that both of Hunter's non-Matthews 1st round picks were more "home-run" selections than Dubas' first 1st rounder.

On another note, when judging Hunter's draft record I don't think we should ignore the influence of Lou here as well. In 2015 before he was hired, Dubas himself said that he and Hunter worked more side-by-side as co-GMs and they both tackled the draft. I think that you can see that in how the draft played out (trading down, taking swings on guys like Bracco, Timashov, Korostelev). When Lou came aboard Hunter and Dubas' duties were more clearly defined and split. This led to Dubas having less of a role in the draft and I'd imagine Lou had some influence on the kinds of players the Leafs were picking.

Now as a Dubas fan I should point out, the 2015 draft that he had more of a voice in hasn't been the smashing success that some of us hoped it would be. The jury is still very much out on a number of those players. I still like the strategy that they took, but so far it hasn't panned out. And while I liked the 2018 draft more than the 16 and 17 drafts, there were picks that the armchair-GM in me would have made differently (Veleno and Addison in particular).

So so far, neither Hunter or Dubas have shown to be draft gurus exactly. The problem is the media won't shut up about calling one of them that and it's completely unfounded at this point.

Offline Frank E

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4893
    • View Profile
Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« Reply #104 on: August 07, 2018, 11:15:32 AM »
So so far, neither Hunter or Dubas have shown to be draft gurus exactly. The problem is the media won't shut up about calling one of them that and it's completely unfounded at this point.

I think that was my point...these people falling over each other trying to anoint either one of these guys is premature at best, wrong at worst.