Ranking Prospects 2018-19

[CarltonTheBear]

I just figured you put actual NHL roster players as being better right now than not-NHL players.  You'll note that I put him as the #1 not-NHL player.

I was moreso surprised since I know you're not exactly a Carrick fan. I think it's pretty reasonable to place a 5-6-7 defenceman (and I know in your opinion he's closer to 7) behind a guy with Liljegren's potential. Same goes for a 11-12-13 forward like Leivo.

[Coco-puffs]

My list:

1. Matthews
2. Marner
3. Nylander
4. Rielly
5. Dermott
6. Liljegren
7. Kapanen
8. Grundstrom
9. Johnsson
10. Brown
11. Sparks
12. Borgman
13. Carrick
14. Rosen
15. Engvall
16. Bracco
17. Moore
18. Timashov
19. Brooks
20. Marchment
21. Korshkov
22. Rasanen
23. Nielsen
24. Woll
25. Lindgren

I'd nitpick a couple one-for-one swaps (Johnsson over Grundstrom, maybe Liljegren over Dermott, maybe Carrick over Borgman) but other than that solid list.

I'd probably vault Korshkov over the Marlies-5 too and put him right behind Engvall. I don't see anything other than 4th liners in that group and I hope to god Korkshov can turn out better than that.

Yeah, I actually struggled to decide in those exact spots (Johnsson-Grundstrom especially- but Grundstrom is like 3 years younger!).  Korshkov is a tough one too, as I'd really like him to pan out but he's dealt with so many injuries and coaching changes in the KHL its hard to know if he's actually on the path we'd hope (2nd liner).  I see Brooks and Bracco with capability above a 4th liner.

[Frank E]

I just figured you put actual NHL roster players as being better right now than not-NHL players.  You'll note that I put him as the #1 not-NHL player.

I was moreso surprised since I know you're not exactly a Carrick fan. I think it's pretty reasonable to place a 5-6-7 defenceman (and I know in your opinion he's closer to 7) behind a guy with Liljegren's potential. Same goes for a 11-12-13 forward like Leivo.

Oh fine, you and your clique always trash my opinions anyways, so I guess I should just expect this kind of criticism from you.

Honestly, I think you're right, but I just have trouble ranking guys that high that haven't even really played NHL hockey yet, unless their projected to make the lineup.

[herman]

I could also point out that Brown has VERY high hockey-IQ and a better shot.  He also put up 61 points in the AHL at a much younger age.  Moore hasn't eclipsed 33.  I think Moore's speed will give him a good shot at being on the 4th line and PK duty, but that is still not near Brown's level.

That's a solid point. I like Brown (smart, generally in the right place at the right time), but I don't see him being more than a defensive utility option because of his lack of any other stand out capability. His offense is solely dependent on his linemates' ability to get the puck to him, and he is otherwise a straight-line player. His big AHL season was riding shotgun to William Nylander (who was artificially suppressed into the AHL), wasn't it? Happy to have him prove me wrong though.

Timashov is only a few months younger than Kapanen and hasn't put up anywhere near Kapanen's level of production.  And Kapanen probably tops out as a 2nd liner.  Bracco is a full year younger, so he still has time to develop, and has actually put up better numbers than Timashov (ppg).  I put the chances of Timashov playing on a 2nd line somewhere very low- Bracco is more likely but at least one more year away from sniffing the NHL.  Hard for me to put them ahead of Brown (or even in the same tier really).

I have Kapanen at least one tier up on Timashov and Bracco so I'm not particularly surprised by the difference there. At this tier of prospect, I think production is very much a function of opportunity. I'm excited to see how the two of them do outside of the shadows of Kapanen and Johnsson, as they become the go-to offense options probably with Grundstrom and Engvall.

[CarltonTheBear]

Oh fine, you and your clique always trash my opinions anyways, so I guess I should just expect this kind of criticism from you.

Honestly, I think you're right, but I just have trouble ranking guys that high that haven't even really played NHL hockey yet, unless their projected to make the lineup.

With lists like these that contain both NHLers and prospects, I try to think how I would rank them as NHLers say 2-3 years from now.

[Coco-puffs]

I could also point out that Brown has VERY high hockey-IQ and a better shot.  He also put up 61 points in the AHL at a much younger age.  Moore hasn't eclipsed 33.  I think Moore's speed will give him a good shot at being on the 4th line and PK duty, but that is still not near Brown's level.

That's a solid point. I like Brown (smart, generally in the right place at the right time), but I don't see him being more than a defensive utility option because of his lack of any other stand out capability. His offense is solely dependent on his linemates' ability to get the puck to him, and he is otherwise a straight-line player. His big AHL season was riding shotgun to William Nylander (who was artificially suppressed into the AHL), wasn't it? Happy to have him prove me wrong though.

Timashov is only a few months younger than Kapanen and hasn't put up anywhere near Kapanen's level of production.  And Kapanen probably tops out as a 2nd liner.  Bracco is a full year younger, so he still has time to develop, and has actually put up better numbers than Timashov (ppg).  I put the chances of Timashov playing on a 2nd line somewhere very low- Bracco is more likely but at least one more year away from sniffing the NHL.  Hard for me to put them ahead of Brown (or even in the same tier really).

I have Kapanen at least one tier up on Timashov and Bracco so I'm not particularly surprised by the difference there. At this tier of prospect, I think production is very much a function of opportunity. I'm excited to see how the two of them do outside of the shadows of Kapanen and Johnsson, as they become the go-to offense options probably with Grundstrom and Engvall.

You make very good points about opportunity here:  Brown played with Nylander a fair amount the year he put up lots of points in the AHL- but, Nylander only played half of that season so its not like he was riding shotgun all year with him.  He still did very well that season while away from Nylander.
Kapanen also played 1st line AHL minutes, where Timashov and Bracco have been farther down the depth chart in the AHL so far- and that's probably deserved since they aren't as good as those other guys yet.

[herman]

You make very good points about opportunity here:  Brown played with Nylander a fair amount the year he put up lots of points in the AHL- but, Nylander only played half of that season so its not like he was riding shotgun all year with him.  He still did very well that season while away from Nylander.
Kapanen also played 1st line AHL minutes, where Timashov and Bracco have been farther down the depth chart in the AHL so far- and that's probably deserved since they aren't as good as those other guys yet.

Next year will be very curious on the Marlies side. All the higher end razzle dazzle are Leafs now (Nylander, Brown, Dermott, Kapanen, Johnsson), so it'll be down to Bracco, Timashov, Brooks, Grundstrom, Liljegren, and Engvall + new adds (probably Dzierkals) to see if we can still be an upper tier team. One of the things that Lou and Babcock preached that Dubas took to heart was putting prospects through competitive situations (e.g. Calder Cup playoffs) rather than solely focusing on skills development.

It's a bit too bad that Korshkov isn't coming over this season (more money in the KHL. There'll be a bump of Russians the year after though with Korshkov, Chebykin, and maybe Bobylev and Kara making the jump to the Marlies.

[Coco-puffs]

You make very good points about opportunity here:  Brown played with Nylander a fair amount the year he put up lots of points in the AHL- but, Nylander only played half of that season so its not like he was riding shotgun all year with him.  He still did very well that season while away from Nylander.
Kapanen also played 1st line AHL minutes, where Timashov and Bracco have been farther down the depth chart in the AHL so far- and that's probably deserved since they aren't as good as those other guys yet.

Next year will be very curious on the Marlies side. All the higher end razzle dazzle are Leafs now (Nylander, Brown, Dermott, Kapanen, Johnsson), so it'll be down to Bracco, Timashov, Brooks, Grundstrom, Liljegren, and Engvall + new adds (probably Dzierkals) to see if we can still be an upper tier team. One of the things that Lou and Babcock preached that Dubas took to heart was putting prospects through competitive situations (e.g. Calder Cup playoffs) rather than solely focusing on skills development.

It's a bit too bad that Korshkov isn't coming over this season (more money in the KHL. There'll be a bump of Russians the year after though with Korshkov, Chebykin, and maybe Bobylev and Kara making the jump to the Marlies.

This was the lineup for Game 7 of the Calder Cup:

Johnsson - Aaltonen - Grundstrom
Timashov - Mueller - Smith
Engvall - Gauthier - Greening
Marchment - Brooks - Moore

Marincin - Holl
Rosen - LoVerde
Nielsen - Liljegren

Sparks

So lets assume Johnsson, Sparks, and Dermott are up with the Leafs.  Ben Smith has already signed to play in Europe.

Almost everyone else is under team control unless the Leafs don't want to sign said player to a NHL contract.  (ie AHL Contract only requires renouncing rights and hoping we don't lose them).  This includes:  Aaltonen, Gauthier, Marincin, Holl

Considering our depth at C in the organization, I highly doubt Aaltonen and Gauthier don't get NHL contracts.  Holl will also get one.  Marincin should also garner a NHL contract, although I'd doubt he passes through waivers.  Another NHL team should take a flyer on him- but lets say he passes through.
We've also added Lindholm and Ohzighanov to the mix. 

As of right now, there are only a few NHL jobs up for grabs (2-3 forwards, 1-2 depth defensman) so a lot of the names mentioned will be back with the Marlies.

I doubt they won't be a upper tier team.  Not saying they will repeat as champs, but I don't doubt they'll be one of the better teams in the AHL again.

My Projected Leafs with a potato GM:
Johnsson - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Hyman - Nylander - Brown
(Trevor) Moore - Lindholm - Leivo
Martin

Rielly - Hainsey
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick  (although I'd like to swap Dermott and Hainsey here)
Rosen - Ohziganov

Fredex
Sparks

Marlies
Timashov - Aaltonen - Grundstrom
Engvall - Gauthier - Greening
Marchment - Mueller - Bracco
Clune - Brooks - Dzerkals
Depth: ( http://www.thetelegram.com/sports/potential-newfoundland-growlers-marlies-sign-five-to-ahl-contracts-219620/ )

Marincin - Holl
Borgman - Liljegren
Neilsen - LoVerde

Pickard
Kaskisuo

[herman]

Sans Aaltonen now, I’m still not seeing the game breaking scoring talent on the Marlies next year unless Grundstrom and Engvall really click with Timashov and Bracco.

[herman]

that’s vladislav kara’s music!

also, the rest of the #leafs development camp roster 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/0YxMfKo500

— Kristen Shilton (@kristen_shilton) June 25, 2018

Semyon Der-Arguchintsev and Fedor Gordeev will double as interpreters for the rather large Russian contingent. We also finally get to see if Vladislav Kara exists.

[Highlander]

that’s vladislav kara’s music!

also, the rest of the #leafs development camp roster 👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/0YxMfKo500

— Kristen Shilton (@kristen_shilton) June 25, 2018

Semyon Der-Arguchintsev and Fedor Gordeev will double as interpreters for the rather large Russian contingent. We also finally get to see if Vladislav Kara exists.

Kara does exist, I read it in a fiction novel. He is not a car part however.

[Mr. Leaf]

I'm assuming that's Matthew Barnaby Jr.?

[herman]

I'm assuming that's Matthew Barnaby Jr.?

I saw something on Twitter confirming that, yes.

[Mr. Leaf]

I'm assuming that's Matthew Barnaby Jr.?

I saw something on Twitter confirming that, yes.

Thanks, that's interesting to know!  I wonder if he plays anything at all like his father did?

[herman]

Fresh profile on Baby Barnaby: https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2018/06/25/maple-leaf-prospects-get-set-to-hit-the-ice.html

He's an undrafted 20 year old centre and was the leading scorer for Pembroke (Sheldon Keefe's previous stop before coaching the Greyhounds). Very, very lanky at the moment.

Specifically to your question, Mr. Leaf:

“He’s by no means the same kind of player as his father,” [coach] McTavish said of the elder Barnaby, who was one of the NHL’s top fighters during his career, who amassed 2,562 penalty minutes in a career that spanned 1992-2007.

“But he has grit, and the thing he has to do is grow into his body. But I think right now, he’s got high-end talent on offence. And the past two seasons, he learned and improved on the defensive side of things.”

Seems like a Mason Marchment type of project: NHL family, has skills and tall build that needs to put on strength.