Author Topic: Armchair GM 2018-2019  (Read 50731 times)

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Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #675 on: August 22, 2018, 02:57:33 PM »
Let me pose this:

What would people feel about the Jets sending Nik Ehlers and Tyler Myers for Karlsson?

Online herman

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #676 on: August 22, 2018, 03:36:14 PM »
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

 8)

I'm not saying Karlsson is bad and broken; I am saying he's not the right fit (especially at the price he's likely to get 7y/11+), and especially not at an asset cost like Nylander, even with the extension.

This is Erik Karlsson's effect at 5v5 (via Hockeyviz)

This is a combination of their system and Ottawa's lacklustre non-Karlsson players.

What I'm thinking we should be looking for instead:

Not necessarily saying we need to target Jared Spurgeon (is he a product of Ryan Suter?), but he's a cheaper option and maybe gets you 70% of Karlsson's effect without costing 70%.

i.e. hold the fort for Liljegren.
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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #676 on: August 22, 2018, 03:36:14 PM »

Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #677 on: August 22, 2018, 03:40:06 PM »
Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

I love Nylander, but I suppose I just can't believe he'll be one of the best forwards in the game. Will he be a premier scoring winger? Ya, almost certainly. Will he ever be in conversations for a major award? No, very unlikely.

And lets at least be honest about the facts. Nylander's already 22 -- which is obviously still young -- and Karlsson doesn't turn 29 until the playoffs, when Nylander turns 23.

Offline Rob

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #678 on: August 22, 2018, 03:53:15 PM »
This may not be a popular opinion, but I don't really see what all the fuss is about Nylander.  I don't think he will cut it as a centre in the NHL.  As a winger he's pretty good, but he's not elite in my books.  I think Karlsson would give the Leafs a better chance of winning a cup in the next 2-5 years than Nylander will, and on that basis alone would do the trade in a second.

Long term, Karlsson will be expensive, and he his play will decline over the term of the contract to the point where the later years we'll be shaking our heads, but have a cup or two to show for it. 

If Karlsson was willing to sign an extension for around $11M, I would even throw in a first rounder. 

Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #679 on: August 22, 2018, 04:11:40 PM »
This may not be a popular opinion, but I don't really see what all the fuss is about Nylander.  I don't think he will cut it as a centre in the NHL.  As a winger he's pretty good, but he's not elite in my books.  I think Karlsson would give the Leafs a better chance of winning a cup in the next 2-5 years than Nylander will, and on that basis alone would do the trade in a second.

Long term, Karlsson will be expensive, and he his play will decline over the term of the contract to the point where the later years we'll be shaking our heads, but have a cup or two to show for it. 

If Karlsson was willing to sign an extension for around $11M, I would even throw in a first rounder.

I'm right with you. The trade I posed with my friends was Nylander + Gardiner + 2019 1st for Karlsson.

With an 11m extension, the money comes back about neutral with Nylander being replaced by Johnsson or Kapanen in the lineup.

Offline RedLeaf

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #680 on: August 22, 2018, 04:21:25 PM »
This may not be a popular opinion, but I don't really see what all the fuss is about Nylander.  I don't think he will cut it as a centre in the NHL.  As a winger he's pretty good, but he's not elite in my books.  I think Karlsson would give the Leafs a better chance of winning a cup in the next 2-5 years than Nylander will, and on that basis alone would do the trade in a second.

Long term, Karlsson will be expensive, and he his play will decline over the term of the contract to the point where the later years we'll be shaking our heads, but have a cup or two to show for it. 

If Karlsson was willing to sign an extension for around $11M, I would even throw in a first rounder.

I'm 100% on board with this post. The overall goal is winning the Stanley Cup. Having Karlsson on the team (minus Nylander) gets you much closer to that goal. I think its really a moot point, but nevertheless.

Watching some of the game in 6's from last year, it becomes more and more apparent that, even with the addition of Tavares, the Leafs are still on the outside looking in without some major upgrades on the blue line. The best card the club holds to obtain that upgrade is Nylander IMHO.
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Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #681 on: August 22, 2018, 08:21:09 PM »
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

You think Nylander will be one of the best forwards in the game?

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #682 on: August 22, 2018, 10:03:07 PM »
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

You think Nylander will be one of the best forwards in the game?

I feel like "could" and "will" are different enough to merit specificity.
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Online herman

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #683 on: August 22, 2018, 10:53:56 PM »
This was a fun read on many levels, especially as you note the author:
https://canucksarmy.com/2014/06/24/canucks-army-draft-prospect-profile-3-william-nylander/
« Last Edit: August 22, 2018, 10:55:36 PM by herman »
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Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #684 on: August 23, 2018, 05:03:16 AM »
Maple Leafs Trade Value Power Rankings:  "the untoichables"...

4. Nylander

Yes, Nylander is untouchable. No, I don’t care if you want him packaged for a top-4 D. Why would Dubas ever do that? Do you want to become Edmonton?

In roughly the same sample size, Nylander’s produced offence at a pace nearly identical to that of Marner. Were his name something local-friendly like William Canada, he’d be idolized in the same fashion as this lists 1-3.

Regardless, Nylander is a 22-year-old possession god with centre ice potential who’s managed 135 points in 185 games. He’s very good.

Everyone shut up.


For the rest of the trade value power rankings:
https://editorinleaf.com/2018/07/14/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-value-power-rankings/
« Last Edit: August 23, 2018, 05:05:45 AM by hockeyfan1 »

Offline OldTimeHockey

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #685 on: August 23, 2018, 05:58:28 AM »
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

You think Nylander will be one of the best forwards in the game?

I feel like "could" and "will" are different enough to merit specificity.

I figured you'd be the one to point that out.

Let me change that....

You think Nylander COULD be one of the best forwards in the game?

I suppose anyone COULD be one of the best forwards in the game. But he has shown no signs to even being one of the BEST young players in the game.

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #686 on: August 23, 2018, 07:28:35 AM »
I figured you'd be the one to point that out.

I am known far and wide for thinking arguments should be made in good faith. 


You think Nylander COULD be one of the best forwards in the game?

I suppose anyone COULD be one of the best forwards in the game. But he has shown no signs to even being one of the BEST young players in the game.

I didn't make the case but I think that if you look at his numbers in proper context, especially as a function of ice time and 5v5, I wouldn't agree that he hasn't shown signs of being one of the better young players in the game, especially given that "one of" is a pretty loose term without a set limit.

It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Nylander become a PPG type player who can play any forward position responsibly. The material difference between that and what Zee said seems pretty slight to me.
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Online Zee

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #687 on: August 23, 2018, 09:01:41 AM »
Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

I love Nylander, but I suppose I just can't believe he'll be one of the best forwards in the game. Will he be a premier scoring winger? Ya, almost certainly. Will he ever be in conversations for a major award? No, very unlikely.

And lets at least be honest about the facts. Nylander's already 22 -- which is obviously still young -- and Karlsson doesn't turn 29 until the playoffs, when Nylander turns 23.

That's fine, but still Nylander at 23 is just entering his prime, Karlsson is leaving his.  Also, earlier in the thread someone mentioned the only 2 players on the Leafs they WOULDN'T include in a trade for Karlsson were Matthews and Tavares.  So that means even Mitch Marner is on the table.  Marner at 21/22, no way I'd deal him for Karlsson at this age. 

I don't think the Leafs NEED an $11M defenseman to try and go on a Cup run, Pittsburgh showed off the model of having a great forward core and being cheap on D and still being able to win.  Leafs could fit Karlsson in this year, but after that it becomes really tough to have him making that much money on the back end, and going into his 30s.

Long story short, we should have drafted Karlsson instead of Luke Schenn (lol)

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #688 on: August 23, 2018, 09:57:46 AM »
Note that the Penguins couldn't repeat their Cup winning ways with Crosby-Malkin until there was additional elite scoring threat from the wings (Kessel), i.e. 3-line depth.
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Offline Frank E

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #689 on: August 23, 2018, 10:59:35 AM »
Note that the Penguins couldn't repeat their Cup winning ways with Crosby-Malkin until there was additional elite scoring threat from the wings (Kessel), i.e. 3-line depth.

Sure, but Kessel was kind of replacing Neal though.

And if we're using the Penguins big-3 as a template to copy, then Tavares - Matthews - Marner would be my preference over Tavares - Matthews - Nylander.

If it's Dubas' intent to keep all 4 of them, then indeed a $11m Karlsson is not in the cards.  If we look at the Capitals roster, other than 68 points out of Carlson, the defense doesn't really wow you...just like the 2016 and 2017 Penguins D corps.

I'm sort of thinking that the Leafs have sort of doubled down on a Letang or a Carlson, in Rielly and Gardiner combined.