Author Topic: Armchair GM 2018-2019  (Read 50615 times)

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Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #135 on: April 29, 2018, 12:26:14 PM »
I would marry this article if I could.

https://theathletic.com/333126/2018/04/29/maple-leafs-path-to-improvement-includes-obvious-lessons-from-bruins-series-plus-a-dose-of-perspective/

Quote
To help put things in perspective, here’s the list of NHL defencemen who led their team in Controlled Zone Exit%, put up over 50 points and had a positive impact on shots and scoring chances relative to their teammates while playing above-average competition:

Drew Doughty
Erik Karlsson
Roman Josi
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jake Gardiner

That’s it.

...

At the end of the day, Toronto was a top-10 team that ran into a top-five team in the first round and still pushed them to seven games despite missing Nazem Kadri for three games. They have an excellent young core, tons of cap flexibility this off-season and a wealth of young talent ready to step into bigger roles next year.

The future is looking bright for the Leafs, as long as they rationally address their needs this summer.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2018, 12:27:51 PM by WhatIfGodWasALeaf »

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #136 on: April 29, 2018, 02:33:49 PM »
I would marry this article if I could.

https://theathletic.com/333126/2018/04/29/maple-leafs-path-to-improvement-includes-obvious-lessons-from-bruins-series-plus-a-dose-of-perspective/

Quote
To help put things in perspective, here’s the list of NHL defencemen who led their team in Controlled Zone Exit%, put up over 50 points and had a positive impact on shots and scoring chances relative to their teammates while playing above-average competition:

Drew Doughty
Erik Karlsson
Roman Josi
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jake Gardiner

That’s it.

...

At the end of the day, Toronto was a top-10 team that ran into a top-five team in the first round and still pushed them to seven games despite missing Nazem Kadri for three games. They have an excellent young core, tons of cap flexibility this off-season and a wealth of young talent ready to step into bigger roles next year.

The future is looking bright for the Leafs, as long as they rationally address their needs this summer.

I think there's a good living to be made writing articles reassuring Leafs fans that all will be well.  Eventually.   ;)

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #136 on: April 29, 2018, 02:33:49 PM »

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #137 on: April 29, 2018, 03:19:49 PM »
I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

[snip]

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis

[snip]

Kadri + another non-34/29/16 asset could very well bring a RHD that would be on our top pair.  I never said it would be Kadri alone.

I guess it depends on what we mean by "top pairing RHD."

The names I'm thinking of move the needle -- they're substantial upgrades. For them, you'd need to trade a dollar for a dollar.

That's different than "a RHD that would be on our top pair" which describes, well, Zaitsev. I'm sure you're aiming higher than that though. Folks keep mentioning Tanev as a meaningful upgrade -- a player who not only "would" be on the top pair but also maybe even should be -- and perhaps Kadri, a talented young winger, and picks gets something like that...

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #138 on: April 29, 2018, 08:10:27 PM »
I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

[snip]

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis

[snip]

Kadri + another non-34/29/16 asset could very well bring a RHD that would be on our top pair.  I never said it would be Kadri alone.

I guess it depends on what we mean by "top pairing RHD."

The names I'm thinking of move the needle -- they're substantial upgrades. For them, you'd need to trade a dollar for a dollar.

That's different than "a RHD that would be on our top pair" which describes, well, Zaitsev. I'm sure you're aiming higher than that though. Folks keep mentioning Tanev as a meaningful upgrade -- a player who not only "would" be on the top pair but also maybe even should be -- and perhaps Kadri, a talented young winger, and picks gets something like that...

Yes, that's exactly my meaning. Kadri + Brown ++, perhaps.

Offline Zee

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #139 on: April 29, 2018, 08:23:57 PM »
What we're trading Kadri? We better sign Tavares first

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #140 on: April 29, 2018, 08:28:47 PM »
What we're trading Kadri?

See, the Leafs didn't trade JVR. So now, when people try to come up with credible trades to include their defense they have to do things like include Kadri( a 30 goal scorer locked into a reasonable contract) in the absence of the sort of assets they could have had at no appreciable downside to the team.

This is the sort of thing a mismanaged team does/has to do if they want to address their issues.
Nothing can have value without being an object of utility
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Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #141 on: April 29, 2018, 10:57:07 PM »
Not trading JVR by all accounts is a mistake, who knows what was offered, but this team is far from mismanaged.
As for Kadri leaving, not happening unless they sign another centre.

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #142 on: April 30, 2018, 12:41:39 AM »
As for Kadri leaving, not happening unless they sign another centre.

Which is fine enough to say but then if they don't add another C then we're back to the reality of them not having much in the way of assets to move for a significant upgrade on D that wouldn't ultimately be zero-sum. And even if they do add another C Kadri is still a valuable piece they wouldn't have to move.

So, again, being as mismanaged as they were this year will put them in a lousy situation this offseason that was largely avoidable.
Nothing can have value without being an object of utility
-Karl Marx

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #143 on: April 30, 2018, 08:37:35 AM »
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

Offline Andy

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #144 on: April 30, 2018, 08:44:45 AM »
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival. So keeping a 36-goal scorer for a playoff run and letting them walk in the offseason isn't exactly a crazy decision. Sure, it didn't work out, but I don't see how that's blatant mismanagement.

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #145 on: April 30, 2018, 10:37:55 AM »
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival. So keeping a 36-goal scorer for a playoff run and letting them walk in the offseason isn't exactly a crazy decision. Sure, it didn't work out, but I don't see how that's blatant mismanagement.

No matter what he did in the playoffs, there would be a school of thought that says trading him was the best option. Not in a direct 'we can use JVR to improve our defense' but in a total asset management capacity. He could have been traded for something, instead, he walks for nothing. If that something was a third-round pick then, ya, better to keep him and let him walk for free.

Trading him wouldn't have been with the mindset of improving the team now, it would have been asset management. Knowing what we know now and assuming he walks in free agency, would you go back and trade him for a 1st round pick and a prospect? Maybe that deal, or a similar deal, wasn't available, that's another potential reason to not trade him for sure.

I also don't like the term mismanage in this case, but I do think they got a bit greedy with this year's playoff run. But again, that assumes there was a trade to be made. I still think the 'we give up' message that would misconstrued by fans and possibly players was a factor too.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #146 on: April 30, 2018, 10:44:10 AM »
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

If you're handcuffed into a bad decision by a good season, maybe you're mismanaging public, or player, perception? We don't hear as much about building for a future of perpetual contender status anymore, which I find odd.

Maybe they're not 'mismanaged' -- save that for signing Clarkson or trading for Bolland -- but managed in a cowardly, over-cautious, unimaginative, and short-sighted fashion.

Trading JVR, even without anything that immediately improves the defense coming back, was the right move. The Leafs will need to have lots of talented depth on ELCs to be contenders, and they don't get that through poor asset management.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2018, 10:46:21 AM by mr grieves »

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #147 on: April 30, 2018, 10:51:45 AM »
The failure to trade JVR is a sign that Shanahan isn't as fully committed to the long-term plan as he says he is publicly.  Three years ago it was, "there will be pain."  And there was.  But what they should have kept emphasizing is, "there must be patience."  That mantra got reduced to lip service after we hit the AM34 jackpot.

The idea that a team that had never won a playoff round was somehow this year going to bull its way past some combo of BOS or TBL was fairly magical thinking.  No doubt other factors, all of them already discussed here, went into the decision to retain JVR.  But at the root, failing to trade him was a failure to follow the supposed Plan.  And that's the same mistake we've been making since forever.

By all objective accounts, this Leafs team was not considered likely to go deep.

Offline Bullfrog

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #148 on: April 30, 2018, 10:53:13 AM »
No matter what he did in the playoffs, there would be a school of thought that says trading him was the best option. Not in a direct 'we can use JVR to improve our defense' but in a total asset management capacity. He could have been traded for something, instead, he walks for nothing. If that something was a third-round pick then, ya, better to keep him and let him walk for free.

Trading him wouldn't have been with the mindset of improving the team now, it would have been asset management. Knowing what we know now and assuming he walks in free agency, would you go back and trade him for a 1st round pick and a prospect? Maybe that deal, or a similar deal, wasn't available, that's another potential reason to not trade him for sure.

I also don't like the term mismanage in this case, but I do think they got a bit greedy with this year's playoff run. But again, that assumes there was a trade to be made. I still think the 'we give up' message that would misconstrued by fans and possibly players was a factor too.

Put me in that school. I'm disappointed they didn't trade him for the highest offer, regardless of how low it was. And I don't believe for a second there weren't interested teams.

Online herman

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Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Reply #149 on: April 30, 2018, 10:59:32 AM »
The failure to trade JVR is a sign that Shanahan isn't as fully committed to the long-term plan as he says he is publicly.  Three years ago it was, "there will be pain."  And there was.  But what they should have kept emphasizing is, "there must be patience."  That mantra got reduced to lip service after we hit the AM34 jackpot.

It depends on what the front office considers long term value, and I think it's pretty clear they highly value playoff experience (even when, and maybe especially when, you get burned). Through their lens, it can be argued they were looking short-term on this season, but long-term for the development of their core.

They should have traded JvR two seasons ago but the injury during the tank drive derailed that opportunity and then nothing really landed in offseasons thereafter. After a certain cut-off, there was more value in keeping JvR/Bozak to 'insulate' (haha) the kids.
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