Author Topic: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson  (Read 3466 times)

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Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Drew Doughty
« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2017, 08:42:13 AM »
While it would suit the Leafs well to have a defenceman such as Doughty, the idea of trading Marner for him is null & void in my book.

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Drew Doughty
« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2017, 10:07:00 AM »
So as much as the Leafs need a d-man, the projections on Marner, Nylander, and Matthews, are three players who can take over a game and can be the difference between winning and losing by themselves.  It appears as all three players are going to be real difference makers when it comes to winning and losing a hockey game.  That's something that very few other teams have and is a tough match-up to counter. 

I think the more prudent course of action would be to wait the next two years, while Marner, Nylander and Matthews hopefully raise their value, and take stock of where the team is then.  It may be that they have that d-man in house, and they develop over those next two years.  That would put them ahead of where they are at if they would trade one of Marner or Nylander for a d-man today.
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be. - Khalil Gibran

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Drew Doughty
« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2017, 10:14:43 AM »
So as much as the Leafs need a d-man, the projections on Marner, Nylander, and Matthews, are three players who can take over a game and can be the difference between winning and losing by themselves.  It appears as all three players are going to be real difference makers when it comes to winning and losing a hockey game.  That's something that very few other teams have and is a tough match-up to counter. 

I think the more prudent course of action would be to wait the next two years, while Marner, Nylander and Matthews hopefully raise their value, and take stock of where the team is then.  It may be that they have that d-man in house, and they develop over those next two years.  That would put them ahead of where they are at if they would trade one of Marner or Nylander for a d-man today.


Sounds quite prudent really.  Afterall, why trade a part of the young core?  As you say, the wait and see approach is best, unless of course, Lou & co. have it already worked out.

Offline disco

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Re: Drew Doughty
« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2017, 11:59:36 AM »
I see the Leafs continuing to develop and rise, and then when the time comes for them to make a move that improves the overall team at the expense of an individual player, they'll make it. Probably regarding defense.
"I'm here for (5) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Offline herman

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #19 on: December 11, 2017, 09:47:52 AM »
Just expanding this thread to incorporate some other UFA 1D options, primarily the 3 in the title, but also second tier options in Gardiner, Ryan McDonagh, and Ryan Ellis.

Doughty and Karlsson have both expressed they are looking for their full market value.

OEL is stuck on a bad team and basically has only one trade deadline deal and then one (mega) contract left to try to land with a playoff-bound team. Karlsson and OEL both play for internal Cap teams too. OEL is the youngest UFA 1D option.

Ellis is most likely to re-sign with the Preds (they're winning and the state is largely income-tax easy). He's only currently making 2.5M AAV and will be one of the younger UFA D options.

Gardiner is another option that will likely re-sign with his current team (if that team will have him).

At this juncture (2019/20), the Leafs will have these guys still under contract:
L: Rielly (5M), Dermott (ELC), Nielsen (ELC)
R: Zaitsev (4.5M), Liljegren (ELC)

and these guys in their control:
Borgman, Rosen

and these guys might be extended into new contracts at that point:
Marincin, Valiev
Both are unlikely.

Offline herman

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #20 on: December 11, 2017, 11:17:55 AM »
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/senators-erik-karlsson-want-win-ottawa/

Karlsson wants:
A) to get paid properly
B) to win
C) stay in Ottawa

I think he can, at most, get two of the three. I also think the BC pairing is impossible.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #21 on: December 11, 2017, 12:22:13 PM »
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/senators-erik-karlsson-want-win-ottawa/

Karlsson wants:
A) to get paid properly
B) to win
C) stay in Ottawa

I think he can, at most, get two of the three. I also think the BC pairing is impossible.

It's one of the weird paradoxes where that whole article had the tone of his agent setting something up so people wouldn't be mad at him and yet the tone of it reads like someone saying they want every single present on their christmas list.

Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #22 on: December 11, 2017, 01:34:06 PM »
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/senators-erik-karlsson-want-win-ottawa/

Karlsson wants:
A) to get paid properly
B) to win
C) stay in Ottawa

I think he can, at most, get two of the three. I also think the BC pairing is impossible.

It's one of the weird paradoxes where that whole article had the tone of his agent setting something up so people wouldn't be mad at him and yet the tone of it reads like someone saying they want every single present on their christmas list.

I'm getting every present on my Christmas list.  Santa owes me.
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be. - Khalil Gibran

Offline Guru Tugginmypuddah

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #23 on: December 11, 2017, 01:49:46 PM »
Big dollar long term commitment to players on the door step of 30 years old, I dunno, just makes me nervous. 

This current group is sitting at 4th overall in the league 2 weeks before Christmas.  I know we all want them to win now, but I just don't think this team will be good enough or experienced enough for another couple years to win a cup.

I think with internal improvement, internal promotion, and the signing of maybe a tier B free agent dman or two, this team will be pretty good.

Having said that, if there is anyway possible Leafs could squeeze Doughty in under that cap, I would do it.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #24 on: December 11, 2017, 02:27:07 PM »

One of the things that I think is interesting about the whole Karlsson thing is that we still haven't seen a team win a cup that was primarily built after the 2012 lockout. The teams that have won cups since then were teams that added pieces and re-shaped rosters in the new environment then but chiefly it's been Chicago winning around Kane and Toews and Pittsburgh winning around Crosby and Malkin.

So on the one hand you hesitate to say Ottawa couldn't build themselves into a contender around Karlsson but on the other...I don't know what that team would look like. if they're perpetually going to be in tight against the cap does rebuilding even make sense if in order for it to work you have to hit a lottery or two and then win immediately before extensions kick in? Is that any sounder a plan than just tinkering with what they have and hope they get lucky?

Truth is I don't think anyone knows. I don't know there are meaningful lessons in repeatable team building beyond "Let's make the playoffs and roll the dice" anymore.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Frank E

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #25 on: December 11, 2017, 02:52:13 PM »

One of the things that I think is interesting about the whole Karlsson thing is that we still haven't seen a team win a cup that was primarily built after the 2012 lockout. The teams that have won cups since then were teams that added pieces and re-shaped rosters in the new environment then but chiefly it's been Chicago winning around Kane and Toews and Pittsburgh winning around Crosby and Malkin.

So on the one hand you hesitate to say Ottawa couldn't build themselves into a contender around Karlsson but on the other...I don't know what that team would look like. if they're perpetually going to be in tight against the cap does rebuilding even make sense if in order for it to work you have to hit a lottery or two and then win immediately before extensions kick in? Is that any sounder a plan than just tinkering with what they have and hope they get lucky?

Truth is I don't think anyone knows. I don't know there are meaningful lessons in repeatable team building beyond "Let's make the playoffs and roll the dice" anymore.

Yeah, I'm with Nik on this.

Ever since guys started getting big bucks right out of their ELC, the window of building a championship team with guys on undervalued contracts seems to be pretty short.

The only guy left undervalued in Chicago is that old back-diving deal that Keith is on at $5.5m.  And of course, Pittsburgh has Crosby at $8.7m.

I think that's why some have suggested the Leafs go after it before Matthews and Marner get paid...Nylander is inevitable right now, but isn't exactly setting himself up for a big payday for his next deal, yet. 

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #26 on: December 11, 2017, 03:05:30 PM »

One of the things that I think is interesting about the whole Karlsson thing is that we still haven't seen a team win a cup that was primarily built after the 2012 lockout. The teams that have won cups since then were teams that added pieces and re-shaped rosters in the new environment then but chiefly it's been Chicago winning around Kane and Toews and Pittsburgh winning around Crosby and Malkin.

So on the one hand you hesitate to say Ottawa couldn't build themselves into a contender around Karlsson but on the other...I don't know what that team would look like. if they're perpetually going to be in tight against the cap does rebuilding even make sense if in order for it to work you have to hit a lottery or two and then win immediately before extensions kick in? Is that any sounder a plan than just tinkering with what they have and hope they get lucky?

Truth is I don't think anyone knows. I don't know there are meaningful lessons in repeatable team building beyond "Let's make the playoffs and roll the dice" anymore.

Yeah, I'm with Nik on this.

Ever since guys started getting big bucks right out of their ELC, the window of building a championship team with guys on undervalued contracts seems to be pretty short.

The only guy left undervalued in Chicago is that old back-diving deal that Keith is on at $5.5m.  And of course, Pittsburgh has Crosby at $8.7m.

I think that's why some have suggested the Leafs go after it before Matthews and Marner get paid...Nylander is inevitable right now, but isn't exactly setting himself up for a big payday for his ndext deal, yet.

Maybe it's because there is a lot of parity, and for the most part it is really hard to make substantial changes to your roster outside of the draft.  So the premise of build your core through the draft and then add the complementary pieces through some other form probably still gives you the best probability of success, but because of that same parity, your probability is lower year in and year out.   
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be. - Khalil Gibran

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #27 on: December 11, 2017, 03:23:14 PM »
Ever since guys started getting big bucks right out of their ELC, the window of building a championship team with guys on undervalued contracts seems to be pretty short.

Maybe but with that said someone is going to have to win a cup every year and I don't know how teams are going to go from being bad enough to draft guys like Marner and Matthews to being good enough throughout the lineup to knock off a more veteran team with less spectacular top-end talent before those extensions kick in.

So in that context I really don't know what "going for it" means. If the end game is to just win a cup I don't know it makes more sense to invest heavily in one year vs. spacing it out. I don't know what urgency means in that context.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Frank E

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #28 on: December 11, 2017, 03:40:08 PM »
Ever since guys started getting big bucks right out of their ELC, the window of building a championship team with guys on undervalued contracts seems to be pretty short.

Maybe but with that said someone is going to have to win a cup every year and I don't know how teams are going to go from being bad enough to draft guys like Marner and Matthews to being good enough throughout the lineup to knock off a more veteran team with less spectacular top-end talent before those extensions kick in.

So in that context I really don't know what "going for it" means. If the end game is to just win a cup I don't know it makes more sense to invest heavily in one year vs. spacing it out. I don't know what urgency means in that context.

Let me clarify a little...I think going for it in this context means that you might spend a little of your future HR capital on players that are short term rentals, to improve your depth, in order to give your team a better shot at a championship, at the time of the trade deadline.

Given the parity of the league these days, I think there's some luck involved in putting yourself into a higher ranking for the playoffs, to give yourself home-ice advantage.  If you're good enough, and lucky enough, to be in such a position, then maybe you spend some of that capital to address any depth issues that might make some marginal difference in attaining your goal of a championship in a given season.

I wouldn't spend as much as to put my team in a problematic HR position moving forward, but these types of acquisitions tend to cost futures, and so there is still some risk involved here.

This is all assuming that your end goal is to win a championship in a given year, and not to just remain competitive and hope that at some point over the lifespan of your competitive core, you win one.

Offline Big Daddy

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #29 on: December 11, 2017, 04:23:22 PM »
My feeling is we need a XXL defensively responsible Dman who can eat minutes.  We have 3 offensively minded players in Reilly Gardiner Lilligren.  We need 3 defensively minded Dman with offensive savvy.  We have Zaitsev Hainsey then no one.  This spot is where I wish we would steal Parayko from St Louis.  The other possible guys for that role are Myers Hamilton and maybe our own Neilson

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Re: Drew Doughty / Erik Karlsson / Oliver Ekman-Larsson
« Reply #29 on: December 11, 2017, 04:23:22 PM »