Author Topic: Armchair GM 2016-2017  (Read 52113 times)

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Offline Tigger

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #255 on: December 28, 2016, 01:39:57 AM »
https://theathletic.com/31051/2016/12/23/mirtle-yes-the-leafs-should-probably-trade-james-van-riemsdyk/

Not much by way of trade ideas, but Mirtle lays down the logic behind spinning off JvR at his peak value for assets to ensure cap room for our actual core.

Was working on another Leafs brass 'speed up the process' pov and wondered if some of the beneficial by product might be added value to minus one year ufa contracts at the following deadline, Komarov, JVR, Bozak

FORWARDS

L. Komarov ($ 2,950,000) --- A. Matthews ($ 925,000) --- W. Nylander ($ 894,166)
J. Van Riemsdyk ($ 4,250,000) --- N. Kadri ($ 4,500,000) --- C. Brown ($ 1,200,000)
N. Soshnikov ($ 736,666) --- T. Bozak ($ 4,200,000) --- M. Marner ($ 894,166)
K. Kapanen ($ 863,333) --- F. Gauthier ($ 863,333) --- Z. Hyman ($ 900,000)

DEFENCE

K. Alzner ($ 6,000,000) --- K. Shat ($ 7,000,000)
M. Rielly ($ 5,000,000) --- N. Zaitsev ($ 4,500,000)
J. Gardiner ($ 4,050,000) --- T. Lily ($ 925,000)

GOAL

F. Andersen ($ 5,000,000) --- K. Kaskisuo ($ 925,000)

Extras

M. Martin ($ 2,500,000) --- R. Valiev ($ 778,333) --- T. Dermott ($ 894,166)

That's a LTIR team, but, between Horton and Lupul it could be interesting. I'm not convinced selling JVR now is a slam dunk better choice than waiting til next year, unless the Leafs really are willing to keep bottoming out and maybe retains now to make it a more attractive option.
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Offline Frank E

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #256 on: December 28, 2016, 10:54:09 AM »
Didn't realize that it was Connor Brown's contract year...

Courtesy of https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs




Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #257 on: December 28, 2016, 01:43:48 PM »
I'm not convinced selling JVR now is a slam dunk better choice than waiting til next year, unless the Leafs really are willing to keep bottoming out and maybe retains now to make it a more attractive option.

Considering how team-friendly his contract is and how likely he is to be looking for a raise when it's over, I'm really to struggling to see how trading JVR at any point other than ASAP could possibly be the one where he's at his highest value.

So long as we generally agree that the Leafs have long odds to make the playoffs this year or the next then the term of JVR's deal plus sliding a spot or two in the draft(potentially in both years) seem to be a pretty clear win-win.

Likewise, there's the real possibility that next year's team is closer to the playoffs than this one's probably stands to be and so trading JVR becomes a question of whether the team is "giving up" or not.

So the equation on trading JVR seems pretty straight forward. It's trading him when his remaining term makes him most valuable + his absence could create the greatest draft benefit vs. turning him into a rental and potentially creating a PR problem by dealing him.
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Offline Bates

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #258 on: December 28, 2016, 01:55:52 PM »
Unless preliminary discussions have JVR wanting to stay and willing to do so for a team friendly contract.  Not optimistic of that but if any Leaf would offer it I suspect it would be JVR.
I'm not convinced selling JVR now is a slam dunk better choice than waiting til next year, unless the Leafs really are willing to keep bottoming out and maybe retains now to make it a more attractive option.

Considering how team-friendly his contract is and how likely he is to be looking for a raise when it's over, I'm really to struggling to see how trading JVR at any point other than ASAP could possibly be the one where he's at his highest value.

So long as we generally agree that the Leafs have long odds to make the playoffs this year or the next then the term of JVR's deal plus sliding a spot or two in the draft(potentially in both years) seem to be a pretty clear win-win.

Likewise, there's the real possibility that next year's team is closer to the playoffs than this one's probably stands to be and so trading JVR becomes a question of whether the team is "giving up" or not.

So the equation on trading JVR seems pretty straight forward. It's trading him when his remaining term makes him most valuable + his absence could create the greatest draft benefit vs. turning him into a rental and potentially creating a PR problem by dealing him.

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #259 on: December 28, 2016, 02:00:09 PM »
Unless preliminary discussions have JVR wanting to stay and willing to do so for a team friendly contract.  Not optimistic of that but if any Leaf would offer it I suspect it would be JVR.

Even then, you're talking about passing up on what JVR could fetch in a trade and the "team friendly" cap space(that they're really not even allowed to be discussing the specifics of).
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Offline Bates

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #260 on: December 28, 2016, 02:04:13 PM »
Correct but then you hope for performance from the acquisitions and start searching for a JVR. 
Unless preliminary discussions have JVR wanting to stay and willing to do so for a team friendly contract.  Not optimistic of that but if any Leaf would offer it I suspect it would be JVR.

Even then, you're talking about passing up on what JVR could fetch in a trade and the "team friendly" cap space(that they're really not even allowed to be discussing the specifics of).

Offline Frank E

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #261 on: December 28, 2016, 02:05:23 PM »
I think the longer you sit on JVR, the lousier the return.

He's healthy, he's producing, and he's relatively cheap for the next season and a half.

Turn him into defense prospects now.

Offline Frank E

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #262 on: December 28, 2016, 02:06:49 PM »
Correct but then you hope for performance from the acquisitions and start searching for a JVR. 
Unless preliminary discussions have JVR wanting to stay and willing to do so for a team friendly contract.  Not optimistic of that but if any Leaf would offer it I suspect it would be JVR.

Even then, you're talking about passing up on what JVR could fetch in a trade and the "team friendly" cap space(that they're really not even allowed to be discussing the specifics of).

I'll worry about adding a nice 25-30 goal winger in 3 years from now.

Until then, this team needs a stud defenseman or 2 in the system way more than a goal scorer.

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #263 on: December 28, 2016, 02:13:22 PM »
Correct but then you hope for performance from the acquisitions and start searching for a JVR.

Sure but let's remember that between Leipsic, Kapanen, Bracco, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Johnson, Timoshov, etc the team is so much stronger in terms of non-NHL talent on the wing that anywhere else that it's a serious concern going forward. If none of those guys already in the system can provide contributions that are roughly on par with JVR we might as well go home because our scouting staff/development system is in trouble.

Likewise, as I've mentioned, pretty good wingers are probably the easiest adds to make come UFA time. So the avenues for potentially replacing JVR are pretty numerous whereas the avenues for adding what he could fetch are basically just him and a bunch of guys we really don't want to trade.
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Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #264 on: December 28, 2016, 02:46:07 PM »
I'm not convinced selling JVR now is a slam dunk better choice than waiting til next year, unless the Leafs really are willing to keep bottoming out and maybe retains now to make it a more attractive option.

Considering how team-friendly his contract is and how likely he is to be looking for a raise when it's over, I'm really to struggling to see how trading JVR at any point other than ASAP could possibly be the one where he's at his highest value.


In any normal year I'd say you are 100% right that his value would be highest before this years trade deadline than at any other point.  However, with the Expansion Draft approaching and teams already worried about losing NHL assets as it is, I think his trade value will be the highest AFTER the Expansion draft. 

I guess we will see how many teams approach this deadline with concern over losing assets in the draft vs going for it this year before the lose some assets.  For a team like the Wild, who are probably going to lose a good asset no matter what, maybe trading for JvR now makes sense.  Just don't expect them to trade one of their NHL defencemen.  At this point the Wild will lose a good player, so whats it to them to add another one and go for it. 

Online bustaheims

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #265 on: December 28, 2016, 02:54:10 PM »
In any normal year I'd say you are 100% right that his value would be highest before this years trade deadline than at any other point.  However, with the Expansion Draft approaching and teams already worried about losing NHL assets as it is, I think his trade value will be the highest AFTER the Expansion draft. 

There hasn't been a whole lot of talk about teams concerned about being able to protect all the forwards they want to. It's been almost entirely about defencemen and goalies. Since teams can basically protect their entire top two lines, JvR may be exactly the type of asset a team would identify as the prime target to acquire as a part of a deal for a good young blueliner they risk losing for nothing in the expansion draft. He's an upgrade for most team's top 6, and isn't likely to put a team in a situation where they now have to expose someone they really wanted to hold on to.
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Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #266 on: December 28, 2016, 02:58:20 PM »
In any normal year I'd say you are 100% right that his value would be highest before this years trade deadline than at any other point.  However, with the Expansion Draft approaching and teams already worried about losing NHL assets as it is, I think his trade value will be the highest AFTER the Expansion draft. 

I guess we will see how many teams approach this deadline with concern over losing assets in the draft vs going for it this year before the lose some assets.  For a team like the Wild, who are probably going to lose a good asset no matter what, maybe trading for JvR now makes sense.  Just don't expect them to trade one of their NHL defencemen.  At this point the Wild will lose a good player, so whats it to them to add another one and go for it.

That strikes me as a relatively minor consideration. I'd wager most teams are almost certainly going to go with the 7/3/1 protection breakdown and if adding JVR isn't easily worth the difference between keeping your 7th and 8th best draft eligible forward you're not likely to pay much for him regardless.
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Online herman

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #267 on: December 28, 2016, 03:00:52 PM »
I think the longer you sit on JVR, the lousier the return.

He's healthy, he's producing, and he's relatively cheap for the next season and a half.

Turn him into defense prospects now.

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Offline Bates

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #268 on: December 28, 2016, 03:12:51 PM »
If a JVR is so easy to find and add why would another NHL team give us a hard to find D stud for him??  Hard to follow that logic.
Correct but then you hope for performance from the acquisitions and start searching for a JVR.

Sure but let's remember that between Leipsic, Kapanen, Bracco, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Johnson, Timoshov, etc the team is so much stronger in terms of non-NHL talent on the wing that anywhere else that it's a serious concern going forward. If none of those guys already in the system can provide contributions that are roughly on par with JVR we might as well go home because our scouting staff/development system is in trouble.

Likewise, as I've mentioned, pretty good wingers are probably the easiest adds to make come UFA time. So the avenues for potentially replacing JVR are pretty numerous whereas the avenues for adding what he could fetch are basically just him and a bunch of guys we really don't want to trade.

Offline Nik

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Re: Armchair GM 2016-2017
« Reply #269 on: December 28, 2016, 03:13:44 PM »
Also, I think trading guys in the off-season always carries a bit of baggage with it in the sense that teams will always be faced with the option of "Do I want to trade one of my best defensive prospects and a 1st round pick for Player X or do I want to wait a week and sign Player Y as a UFA and get 75% of Player X but get to keep those high value assets".

You trade a player at the deadline and your "competition" is all of the players other teams are willing to trade. You trade them in the off-season and the competition is everyone other teams are willing to trade plus the marketplace.
Sports are like the reward of a functioning society
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