Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

#1        Auston Matthews
#31      Yegor Korshkov
#57      Carl Grundstrom
#62      Joseph Woll
#72      James Greenway
#92      Adam Brooks
#101    Keaton Middleton
#122    Vladimir Bobylev   
#152    Jack Walker
#179    Nicolas Mattinen
#182    Nikolai Chebykin

Thanks Herman for the great job!

[WAYNEINIONA]

 An interesting group. Hopefully there is a couple of decent NHLers in it.

[disco]

Good post WhatIf... here's Mark Hunter:

https://www.nhl.com/mapleleafs/video/mark-hunter-june-25-2016/t-277437436/c-44292903

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Thanks WIGWAL. I missed the 2nd day of the draft. General thoughts? Seems like an odd collection of players. Lots of size, lots of older draft-eligible prospects. Passed on a lot of higher ranked guys with Korshkov.

No problem sir.

It was definitely a strange day, the Leafs seemed to be singing from a different hymn sheet than most everyone else.

I'm kinda excited to see how it works out, did they just Billy Beane the draft right under everyones nose?

[hockeyfan1]

Aside from Matthews, seems like a mix of good potentials and plenty of look-sees.

Korshkov(W), Woll(G), Middleton(D), Walker(W/D). They already have the size, speed, and agility with greater room for improvement.

[Nik]

Picks I Like: Matthews, Grundstrom

Picks I don't really like: Korshkov, Brooks

Picks I have largely no opinion on: The rest of them

[Tigger]

Korshkov must have some solid backing from their scout in Russia, kinda reminds me of the Antropov pick in a way. Brooks at 92 seems fine to me, same for Walker at 152.

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

A decent stab at a Leafs prospect depth chart.

[Heroic Shrimp]

A decent stab at a Leafs prospect depth chart.

Austom...?

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

A decent stab at a Leafs prospect depth chart.

Austom...?

LMFAO

[herman]

Thanks for the compile, WIGWAL

OMG! Yes! THANK YOU: Matthews
Like: Woll, Walker
Interesting: Grundstrom, Korshkov, Brooks, Mattinen
Meh: Greenway, Middleton, Bobylev, Chebykin

[herman]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrZsEIZNHAU[/youtube]

Transcribed by MLHS: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/25/2016-nhl-draft-toronto-maple-leafs-picks-list/

[herman]

My read on the Leafs draft process:

- looks like a huge departure from last year's consistent exploitation of the market inefficiency in Size bias. skill > size is very obvious and easy to understand
- overagers/size appeared to be a focus, but I contend they've been drafting consistently for BPA both years (they picked larger overagers last year; e.g. Desrocher)
- this year, the weak draft class + even more data points on dev curve and progress momentum happened to put these who happen to be older/larger/international at the top of the BPA list at each pick.
- none of this matters if the picks can't play, but clearly the scouting department saw which players had steep upward curves based on their d/d+ years and slotted them accordingly
- benefits to their situation were also added to the BPA weighting scale
- overage = direct control over dev (Marlies), shorter dev timeline; sounds traditionally unattractive (history of rejection) so there is higher likelihood of picking who you want; ELC/SPC doesn't kick in until they're pretty much ready to drop into NHL (huge value, even for bottom six plugs)
- non-CHL picks: prospects get to stew longer without the cost of a contract while remaining under our control -- perfect situation for goalie development without kicking out an existing prospect; international picks are already playing against full-grown pro players

Why are we so meh about this draft?
- highly untraditional
- run up draft coverage always favours first year draft eligibles so those are the names we assess and attach to
- on the surface, looks like a Burke draft
- picks were even more unknown than usual

What is so exciting about this draft (outside of Matthews):
- clear analytics focus
- exploiting situations for easier cap/contract management

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Thanks for your thoughts herman, definite food for thought.

I thought this roundtable from PPP was pretty good, I think they addressed a lot the reasons why fans were left feeling somewhat underwhelmed yesterday.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/6/25/12031494/ppp-roundtable-our-thoughts-on-todays-draft-selections

[RedLeaf]

My read on the Leafs draft process:

- looks like a huge departure from last year's consistent exploitation of the market inefficiency in Size bias. skill > size is very obvious and easy to understand
- overagers/size appeared to be a focus, but I contend they've been drafting consistently for BPA both years (they picked larger overagers last year; e.g. Desrocher)
- this year, the weak draft class + even more data points on dev curve and progress momentum happened to put these who happen to be older/larger/international at the top of the BPA list at each pick.
- none of this matters if the picks can't play, but clearly the scouting department saw which players had steep upward curves based on their d/d+ years and slotted them accordingly
- benefits to their situation were also added to the BPA weighting scale
- overage = direct control over dev (Marlies), shorter dev timeline; sounds traditionally unattractive (history of rejection) so there is higher likelihood of picking who you want; ELC/SPC doesn't kick in until they're pretty much ready to drop into NHL (huge value, even for bottom six plugs)
- non-CHL picks: prospects get to stew longer without the cost of a contract while remaining under our control -- perfect situation for goalie development without kicking out an existing prospect; international picks are already playing against full-grown pro players

Why are we so meh about this draft?
- highly untraditional
- run up draft coverage always favours first year draft eligibles so those are the names we assess and attach to
- on the surface, looks like a Burke draft
- picks were even more unknown than usual

What is so exciting about this draft (outside of Matthews):
- clear analytics focus
- exploiting situations for easier cap/contract management

Nice breakdown Herman!