Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/28/toronto-maple-leafs-2016-draft/

That Russian 5 guy takes a speculative dive into the Leaf's 2016 draft class.

Some keen observations regarding drafting overage players, especially international ones, and targeting underperformers:

Nik Kulemin was draft + 2 (2006 Round 2 #44)
Leo Komarov was draft + 1 (2006 Round 6 #180)
Anton Stralman was draft + 2 (2005 Round 7 #216)
Carl Gunnarsson was draft + 2 (2007 Round 7 #194)
Viktor Stalberg was draft + 2 (2006 Round 6 #166)

[Highlander]

Herman the information provided on Korshkov was very encouraging as well, not to mention the highlights from the WJC. Kid has soft hands and a big frame

[Nik Bethune]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/28/toronto-maple-leafs-2016-draft/

That Russian 5 guy takes a speculative dive into the Leaf's 2016 draft class.

Some keen observations regarding drafting overage players, especially international ones, and targeting underperformers:

Nik Kulemin was draft + 2 (2006 Round 2 #44)
Leo Komarov was draft + 1 (2006 Round 6 #180)
Anton Stralman was draft + 2 (2005 Round 7 #216)
Carl Gunnarsson was draft + 2 (2007 Round 7 #194)
Viktor Stalberg was draft + 2 (2006 Round 6 #166)

Yup. If you're doing it in round 5 or later, it seems like a pretty solid strategy.

[herman]

Just to see this all in one place:

2016

Rd	Pick	Player	Year	Position	Height	Weight
1	1	Auston Matthews	1997 (D-0)	C	6'2"	216 lbs
2	31	Yegor Korshkov	1996 (D+2)	RW	6'3"	179 lbs
2	57	Carl Grundstrom	1997 (D-0)	LW	6'0"	194 lbs
3	62	Joseph Woll	1998 (D-0)	G	6'3"	196 lbs
3	72	J.D. Greenway	1998 (D-0)	LD	6'4"	205 lbs
4	92	Adam Brooks	1996 (D+2)	C	5'11"	176 lbs
4	101	Keaton Middleton	1998 (D-0)	LD	6'5"	234 lbs
5	122	Vladimir Bobylev	1997 (D+1)	LW/C	6'2"	203 lbs
6	152	Jonathan "Jack" Walker	1996 (D+2)	LW	5'11"	179 lbs
6	179	Nicolas Mattinen	1998 (D-0)	RD	6'4"	220 lbs
7	182	Nikolai Chebykin	1997 (D+1)	LW/RW	6'3"	209 lbs

2015

Rd	Pick	Player	Year	Position	Height	Weight
1	4	Mitch Marner	1997 (D-0)	C/RW	5'11"	163 lbs
2	34	Travis Dermott	1996 (D-0)	LD	5'11"	196 lbs
2	61	Jeremy Bracco	1997 (D-0)	RW/C	5'9"	172 lbs
3	65	Andrew Nielsen	1996 (D-0)	LD	6'3"	207 lbs
3	68	Martins Dzierkals	1997 (D-0)	LW/RW	5'11"	170 lbs
4	95	Jesper Lindgren	1997 (D-0)	RD	6'0"	161 lbs
5	125	Dmytro Timashov	1996 (D-0)	LW/RW	5'10"	187 lbs
6	155	Stephen Desrocher	1996 (D+1)	LD	6'4"	198 lbs
7	185	Nikita Korostelev	1997 (D-0)	LW/RW	6'1"	194 lbs

[McGarnagle]

only 2 guys out of 11 under 6 feet. And even then just barely on those two.

[Coco-puffs]

Yup. If you're doing it in round 5 or later, it seems like a pretty solid strategy.

Korshkov wasn't very likely to make it out of the 2nd round.  He was the 7th ranked European skater according to NHL CS.  Guess who else went before the 57th pick? (European ranking in brackets)

Rubstrov (5th) and Borgstrom (9th) went in the first round.

Asplund (4th), Dahlen (11th), Kuokkanen (20th), Kayumov (14th), Hronek (8th). 

There might have been very little chance he was still around at 57... I bet they didn't expect Grundstrom to still be there either.

[Nik Bethune]

Korshkov wasn't very likely to make it out of the 2nd round.  He was the 7th ranked European skater according to NHL CS.  Guess who else went before the 57th pick? (European ranking in brackets)

That's one scouting opinion among many:

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=176637

[Coco-puffs]

Korshkov wasn't very likely to make it out of the 2nd round.  He was the 7th ranked European skater according to NHL CS.  Guess who else went before the 57th pick? (European ranking in brackets)

That's one scouting opinion among many:

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=176637

Yup.... and we saw how well the actual draft played out compared to all of the rankings.   NHL teams don't follow the published rankings, they follow their own internal ones.  We have no idea where Korshkov was on anyone else's list.... he only needed to be NEXT on about one of about 20 lists (number of teams picking between 31 and 57).

The Leafs valued him higher than most- and probably for good reason, considering the scouts (Namestnikov) pushing him also led us to Soshnikov.  They didn't want to miss out on him.  Its not like the Leafs were the only ones who would have valued him that high- after 8 pts in 7 g at the WJC, he wasn't off everyone's radar and would have fallen to the 5th round.

I get it... you liked other players at 31 and I'm not saying I didn't either.  Its easy to get excited about the players in the CHL that put up big numbers in their draft year.  Its a lot harder to get excited about players who passed through drafts previously as it seems those players are behind in their development- but not everyone develops at the same time.

[Nik Bethune]

Its easy to get excited about the players in the CHL that put up big numbers in their draft year.  Its a lot harder to get excited about players who passed through drafts previously as it seems those players are behind in their development- but not everyone develops at the same time.

I don't think that's an accurate categorization of what I'm saying. I have very different feelings about the Korshkov pick and the Grundstrom pick and neither of those guys are "CHL players with big numbers". If that was the only pick a person would favour they'd be ruling out any picks from Europe or the USNDT.

The thing about a pick like Laberge isn't that he's a "CHL player with big numbers" because he's not really. 68 points in the QMJHL isn't a big deal. It's that there's far more consensus on him and his abilities.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=252492

A low 1st round ranking is common, the worst he does is a mid 2nd round grade. By comparison, Korshkov has only two 2nd round grades and falls as low as a late 4th round ranking. The Leafs aren't the only team that has drafted successful Russian players and while Soshnikov is a promising looking prospect he's certainly not at the level where he himself is a justification for any Russian drafted.

Obviously there's a lot of guesswork when it comes to the draft and instant analysis is flawed no matter what but I don't think we should be limited to "The Leafs made the pick, therefore they liked the player, therefore it's a good pick". This front office group hasn't achieved enough to get that sort of credit and, to be honest, no front office really has.

[Coco-puffs]

I don't think that's an accurate categorization of what I'm saying. I have very different feelings about the Korshkov pick and the Grundstrom pick and neither of those guys are "CHL players with big numbers". If that was the only pick a person would favour they'd be ruling out any picks from Europe or the USNDT.

The thing about a pick like Laberge isn't that he's a "CHL player with big numbers" because he's not really. 68 points in the QMJHL isn't a big deal. It's that there's far more consensus on him and his abilities.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=252492

A low 1st round ranking is common, the worst he does is a mid 2nd round grade. By comparison, Korshkov has only two 2nd round grades and falls as low as a late 4th round ranking. The Leafs aren't the only team that has drafted successful Russian players and while Soshnikov is a promising looking prospect he's certainly not at the level where he himself is a justification for any Russian drafted.

Obviously there's a lot of guesswork when it comes to the draft and instant analysis is flawed no matter what but I don't think we should be limited to "The Leafs made the pick, therefore they liked the player, therefore it's a good pick". This front office group hasn't achieved enough to get that sort of credit and, to be honest, no front office really has.

I'm too lazy to breakdown your post into individual posts, but here are my comments:

- There is usually more consensus on players from the CHL because of the number of eyes that see those players.  Generally, the differences in grading players from the CHL comes down to how much the evaluator values speed vs skill vs size.

- In turn, European players that are late bloomers don't get evaluated nearly as often- hence the wide range of grades. 

- I agree with your last paragraph.  I'm not saying Korshkov was a "good pick" and our front office definitely hasn't achieved enough to not question their decisions.  I'm just pointing out that our front office has more information than just about any fan or online scouting website- including input from the guy who coached him and from a Russian scout who has done well for us so far.  So I'm not going to be disappointed that they passed over players who were more widely considered better prospects.  We won't know for years if they made the right decision because, as you said, the draft comes down to a whole lot of guesswork.

[Nik Bethune]

I'm just pointing out that our front office has more information than just about any fan or online scouting website- including input from the guy who coached him and from a Russian scout who has done well for us so far.

To be honest, I'm not sure it's entirely true. I don't think it's fair to say our staff necessarily has "more" information than someone like McKenzie or anyone else who does this thing seriously. And information doesn't really mean much as a quantitative thing here anyway. The biggest draft busts in history were all made with reams of information at the pickers' fingertips.

Regardless though, the lack of consensus is just one of the reasons I'm not particularly thrilled with this pick. I still think a high 2nd should be used to aim a little higher, especially when there are high value players at positions of need. If the reviews of Korshkov were the people who liked him thinking he was an immensely skilled sleeper who could be a big deal, that'd be one thing but just a little while ago this pick was being defended as low ceiling safety. 

[KadriFan]

Didn't Hunter say that Tommy and the other scouts really liked him?  That's good enough for me....

[Coco-puffs]

Regardless though, the lack of consensus is just one of the reasons I'm not particularly thrilled with this pick. I still think a high 2nd should be used to aim a little higher, especially when there are high value players at positions of need. If the reviews of Korshkov were the people who liked him thinking he was an immensely skilled sleeper who could be a big deal, that'd be one thing but just a little while ago this pick was being defended as low ceiling safety.

I don't agree with those who defended the pick as a low-ceiling safe pick.  His projection/ceiling is still of a skilled Top-6 forward in many eyes:

http://thehockeywriters.com/egor-korshkov-the-next-ones-nhl-2016-draft-prospect-profile/

Strengths:

Great hands
Very good skater
Knows how to score
Understanding of the game

Under Construction (Improvements to Make):

Lean body, needs to bulk up
Consistency

NHL Potential:

Egor Korshkov is a low-risk, high-reward type of prospect. He definitely has top-six potential in the NHL, but needs to mature his game.

Risk-Reward Analysis:

Risk = 2.5/5   Reward = 4/5

Players who have low ceilings aren't in NHL CS's Top 10 European Skaters.

By the way... I did prefer a defenseman with high upside with this pick, or Abramov or Debrincat at forward.  They do have higher ceilings but come with higher risk.  I'm not disappointed though as they didn't draft someone projected to be a bottom-six grinder either.

[Nik Bethune]

Players who have low ceilings aren't in NHL CS's Top 10 European Skaters.

And players who are "low risk, high reward" get drafted in the top 3.

[Coco-puffs]

Players who have low ceilings aren't in NHL CS's Top 10 European Skaters.

And players who are "low risk, high reward" get drafted in the top 3.

   Yup, because there are less than four players in every draft who are low risk, high reward.