Author Topic: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread  (Read 65117 times)

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Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #900 on: December 06, 2014, 04:14:34 PM »
Home/Away stats = "Split Stats."
Metrics involving multiple equations = "Advanced Stats." These are the stats that say that this guy was terrible in CF, bad in LF but great in RF. That doesn't make a lick of sense.

Well, I suppose that wouldn't make sense(and when Busta said something similar I also had problems with it) but the problem is that it isn't definitively true. The more I look at his defensive metrics I think there's a very easy explanation for how he grades at all three positions. Basically it involves us believing three fairly reasonable ideas:

1. Players need to adjust to new positions
2. It's easier to play the corner outfield than center
3. Players can improve defensively over time.

First of all, Saunders doesn't rate as "bad" defensively in left(with the caveat that defensive metrics aren't a hard science and there are a ton of them out there). For his 1300+ inning career in left he's a +11 in Total Zone Runs above average and +6 in DRS(defensive runs saved) above average which is...very slightly above average. However, around 900+ of those innings in left came in his first two seasons.

So that makes sense, right? Saunders was primarily a CF/RF in the minors but when he came to the majors the Mariners had Franklin Gutierrez in center(who was incredible defensively) and Ichiro in right so they played him primarily in left and he was ok to pretty good which makes sense as he was learning to play the corner.

Then Gutierrez forgot how to hit and they moved Saunders to center where he grades as not good(-20 in TZR, -25 in DRS). But that also makes sense. Center is harder to play than the corners and if you just look at the total number of plays Saunders was making by means of range factor compared to the league average it's easy to see why he failed there. He doesn't have the range for center field.

So then after two years of the failed experiment of him in center they move him back into the corner in right(of his 758 career innings in RF all but 31 are from the last two years) and he grades as quite good(+14 TZR, +9 DRS).

Nothing there "doesn't make a lick of sense" and all of this is just a reflection of those three pretty simple and agreeable ideas.

1. Players need to adjust to new positions - Saunders struggled to learn LF when he was fresh to the majors
2. Center field is harder to play than the corners - Saunders doesn't have the range for CF
3. Players can improve defensively over time - Saunders is now an experienced corner outfielder

Lemon squeeze-y, the defensive career of Michael Saunders.

The Jays have a poor outfield with 0 depth and my take is that Saunders is only a minor addition.

Well, I won't argue about the depth but I actually see the potential for a pretty good outfield if Saunders is healthy and Pompey has a good rookie year. Bautista's a good player, Saunders can be a 3-4 win player and Pompey is admittedly the wild card. I'd rather have Willie Mays, Frank Robinson and Hank Aaron in their primes but what are you gonna do?
 
« Last Edit: December 06, 2014, 04:18:55 PM by Nik the Trik »
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Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #901 on: December 14, 2014, 07:40:22 AM »

Looks like it's Melky to Chicago to become a White Sock.
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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #901 on: December 14, 2014, 07:40:22 AM »

Offline L K

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #902 on: December 14, 2014, 10:44:44 AM »

Looks like it's Melky to Chicago to become a White Sock.

I have to say that I'm still mildly disappointed with the current direction of the team.   They have a few good moves but overall the team is going to live and die by their piecemeal bullpen and a starting rotation being held together but gold Baum medicated ointment and inexperienced youth. 

Maybe it works out but the window on this team isn't 3-4 years, it's probably more like 1-2 years before Bautista declines.  It isn't like this team has good up and coming position players.

I have accepted that Saunders isn't a bad substitute for Melky but I really hoped that it was because they wanted to use the money elsewhere.
« Last Edit: December 14, 2014, 10:49:34 AM by L K »

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #903 on: December 14, 2014, 07:50:06 PM »
I have accepted that Saunders isn't a bad substitute for Melky but I really hoped that it was because they wanted to use the money elsewhere.

Well, they still might. I do hear that the Jays are interested in Shields if they can make the money work and you never know what might open up later on when chairs fill up and the music slows down.
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Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #904 on: December 19, 2014, 04:39:06 PM »

Kind of interested by the Jays signing Daric Barton to a minor league deal. Smoak is obviously going to get first crack at the job but if Barton could rebound and get healthy he could be a pretty interesting option.

Anyway, I get the sense that the Jays are more or less done in the outfield but I think there are two legitimately interesting options out there for them. Two of the teams in the NL west have a ridiculous concentration of outfielders right now. The Padres have Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, Carlos Quentin and BJ Upton. The Dodgers have Yasiel Puig, Andre Ethier, Scott Van Slyke and Carl Crawford. They also have Joc Pederson who is one of the best minor league power prospects in the game and pretty much major league ready.

Quentin and Van Slyke, I think, are two guys who should really be getting a hard look. Quentin can't stay healthy but he can hit when he is. Van Slyke on the other hand had a slash line of .297/.386/.524 with a 157 OPS+ and somehow might still be unable to get into the Dodgers every day lineup. I'm guessing the Dodgers would want something legitimate for Van Slyke but Quentin? Could maybe get him for nothing.

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Offline Andy

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #905 on: December 20, 2014, 05:06:53 PM »
I don't know, the last thing the Jays need is another player who struggles to stay in the lineup and be healthy. And Quentin also can't play centre. Seems like an okay depth move but that still leaves Pompey and Pillar as the only centre fielders on the team.

Barton is also pretty meh. He had a great 2010 season and nothing since or before. Another injury risk who couldn't even stay in the A's lineup when he was healthy.

I guess the power that Donaldson, Encarnacion and Bautista provide makes up for lack of power at other positions but the prospect of Smoak and/or Barton (who only hit 10 homers in that stellar 2010 full season) offensively as the starting 1st baseman is quite weak.

Offline Potvin29

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #906 on: December 20, 2014, 05:42:26 PM »
Barton ain't gonna be the starting first baseman.

Offline Andy

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #907 on: December 20, 2014, 06:20:50 PM »
Barton ain't gonna be the starting first baseman.

No he ain't. I'm responding to Nik, who was talking about the possibility of Barton "rebounding and being an interesting option." 


Offline Potvin29

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #908 on: December 21, 2014, 12:21:49 PM »
Barton ain't gonna be the starting first baseman.

No he ain't. I'm responding to Nik, who was talking about the possibility of Barton "rebounding and being an interesting option."

I know, and you said: the prospect of Smoak and/or Barton (who only hit 10 homers in that stellar 2010 full season) offensively as the starting 1st baseman is quite weak.

Offline Andy

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #909 on: December 21, 2014, 12:42:27 PM »
Barton ain't gonna be the starting first baseman.

No he ain't. I'm responding to Nik, who was talking about the possibility of Barton "rebounding and being an interesting option."

I know, and you said: the prospect of Smoak and/or Barton (who only hit 10 homers in that stellar 2010 full season) offensively as the starting 1st baseman is quite weak.

I know, which is a response to Nik who said that Barton provides a very interesting option after Smoak; the latter who is projected to be the actual starting 1st baseman.

Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #910 on: December 21, 2014, 01:19:29 PM »
I don't know, the last thing the Jays need is another player who struggles to stay in the lineup and be healthy. And Quentin also can't play centre. Seems like an okay depth move but that still leaves Pompey and Pillar as the only centre fielders on the team.

Yeah, but realistically at this point it looks like they're going to give Pompey every opportunity to win the job so in Quentin I'm more sort of looking at him as being a DH/LF possibility if Saunders doesn't stay healthy and they decide to give EE some solid time at first.

Barton is also pretty meh. He had a great 2010 season and nothing since or before. Another injury risk who couldn't even stay in the A's lineup when he was healthy.

I guess the power that Donaldson, Encarnacion and Bautista provide makes up for lack of power at other positions but the prospect of Smoak and/or Barton (who only hit 10 homers in that stellar 2010 full season) offensively as the starting 1st baseman is quite weak.

Well, yes. Absent going out and adding someone else, the Jays look pretty weak at 1B right now( again, assuming they don't go with Edwin). If Smoak is so bad that they take the job away from him then you're basically looking at the definition of a replacement level player.

Trust me, when I said "pretty interesting" I said it within the context of someone they signed to a minor league deal.
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Offline Potvin29

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Offline Nik Bethune

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Re: The 2014 Toronto Blue Jays Thread
« Reply #913 on: January 18, 2015, 10:28:31 AM »

So anyone else coming around on the idea that the Dan Duquette stuff is sort of a covert firing of Anthopolous? i mean, replacing Beeston is one thing but it sure seems like they want someone above AA to be making baseball decisions.
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