Author Topic: Jays Roster Discussion  (Read 51593 times)

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Offline Andy

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #465 on: July 28, 2017, 10:02:59 AM »


I don't know how much you want to invest in the idea of what will be a 35 year old consistently delivering a career performance year-in and out. I think we saw enough from Dickey how that isn't a great investment.

Dickey was 38 when he got here. From ages 35 through 37 he was consistently great. And he was a knuckleballer with a fastball in the low-80's. So I'm not sure how that relates to Estrada and his hypothetical success as a 34-36 year old (If anything, really, this all supports your argument).

With Estrada, for me the question/concern is about fastball velocity and if/when it's going to drop. He's actually up from last year and his K rate has improved. He has been hurt by the homerun (more than usual and, imo, mostly as a result of the juiced ball/bat bull that is going on this year), porous outfield defense and some major command struggles. His FIP is actually a full run lower than his ERA. I'd be fine with a one-year deal and a team option for the 2nd and, with some fine tuning and an improved defense behind him, I can see a really strong bounce-back year (or two).





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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #465 on: July 28, 2017, 10:02:59 AM »

Offline cabber24

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #466 on: July 28, 2017, 11:07:13 AM »
I heard a rumor on TSN that the Jays are going to keep both Bautista and Estrada and sign them both to contract extensions.
I would be on board for resigning both.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #467 on: July 28, 2017, 11:57:24 AM »
Dickey was 38 when he got here. From ages 35 through 37 he was consistently great. And he was a knuckleballer with a fastball in the low-80's. So I'm not sure how that relates to Estrada and his hypothetical success as a 34-36 year old (If anything, really, this all supports your argument).

I may have written that paragraph poorly. Like you say, Dickey was a knuckleballer and as a result had a different trajectory with regards to his age. My point there was that the Jays paid such a high price for him based largely on a career year(he'd been good the previous two years, with WAR's of 3.6 both years, but in his Cy Young year he jumped to 5.8).

So I guess it's a little disjointed but all I mean is you shouldn't expect regular, non-knuckleball pitchers to match or improve on their career years at age 35 and you definitely shouldn't negotiate with them on that basis, the way the Jays sort of did with the Mets for Dickey.

With Estrada, for me the question/concern is about fastball velocity and if/when it's going to drop. He's actually up from last year and his K rate has improved. He has been hurt by the homerun (more than usual and, imo, mostly as a result of the juiced ball/bat bull that is going on this year), porous outfield defense and some major command struggles. His FIP is actually a full run lower than his ERA. I'd be fine with a one-year deal and a team option for the 2nd and, with some fine tuning and an improved defense behind him, I can see a really strong bounce-back year (or two).

I think you're getting at why FIP can be a valuable predictor. For the last 5 years Estrada's FIP has been fairly consistent, ranging from 3.86 to 4.88(and both of those are his last 2 Brewer years, with the Jays it's between 4.15 and 4.52) while his ERA has jumped around by 2 runs or so. He's not great in terms of walks allowed, he gives up too many HR and, before this season anyway, he hasn't struck many guys out. That makes his actual results largely dependent on things outside of his control like BABIP and the defense behind him.

I'm not as onboard as sum with the idea that pitcher's have very little input in how many hits they give up but I do think there's a lot of random chance in there so I think for Estrada to have the sorts of years he had in the two years prior, realistically, he's got to become one of the very best pitchers in the league at minimizing hits allowed. That strikes me as unlikely.

So I think he can be of some value going forward but I wouldn't be surprised if he hits a point where his FIP and his ERA sort of line up. A 4.00 ERA pitcher can be valuable but, you know, I don't know if it's valuable enough to not look to add assets instead.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 12:13:49 PM by Nik the Trik »
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Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #468 on: July 28, 2017, 03:37:19 PM »
Estrada's stats were at the top of the league for two seasons and he was lights out in the playoffs.  The way you constantly disagree with everyone here gets really boring really quickly.  Please go away and stick to hockey.  You don't know what you're talking about.  If you're going to disagree with someone at least get it right.

You'll notice I listed actual stats in my post whereas you haven't. Estrada's "stats" range from good to bad in those years. He was top of the league in H/9 and was top 10 in WHIP and ERA+ for both years but he was never top 10 in IP, WAR, BB/9, HR/9, K/9, FIP or anything else.

So, again, two good years but nothing elite. And what largely drove his good WHIP and ERA numbers, hit suppression, isn't a stat you should put a ton of money on getting better with age.

Lastly, I don't make this personal and am using stats based arguments. You've got no standing to tell me where to post and if you don't like what I post you're free to either not respond or just generally get bent.
You're full of shit.  Here are his stats:

Quote
2015 3.13era   181.0ip .203opp.avg.   1.04whip
2016 3.48era 176.0ip .203opp.avg. 1.12whip

Those are elite stats.  He has been at the top of the league for the past two seasons.  Up there with the very best.  As usual you add nothing to the forum but your own inflated ego.  It must be pretty sad to have to try to bring others down to your level.  Please spare me your bull#$#% and if you're going to disagree with me, at least base it on something factual, not some random stat that you pulled out of your ass.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 03:38:53 PM by sickbeast »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #469 on: July 28, 2017, 03:48:24 PM »
Those are elite stats.

No, they're not. A 3.48 ERA is not a number that places him among baseball's best. Neither are sub-200 innings pitched(he ranked 25th in 2015, 30th in 2016). He had some good numbers, like I acknowledged, but nobody took him seriously as a Cy Young candidate in either year(a 10th place finish in 2015, no votes in '16) because, again, he did not pitch enough at a high enough level.

And all of the numbers I used are easy enough to look up on Baseball Reference. Whether you can wrap your head around them is up to you.
« Last Edit: July 28, 2017, 03:53:12 PM by Nik the Trik »
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Offline herman

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #470 on: July 28, 2017, 04:31:35 PM »

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #471 on: July 28, 2017, 04:36:46 PM »
Those are elite stats.

No, they're not. A 3.48 ERA is not a number that places him among baseball's best. Neither are sub-200 innings pitched(he ranked 25th in 2015, 30th in 2016). He had some good numbers, like I acknowledged, but nobody took him seriously as a Cy Young candidate in either year(a 10th place finish in 2015, no votes in '16) because, again, he did not pitch enough at a high enough level.

And all of the numbers I used are easy enough to look up on Baseball Reference. Whether you can wrap your head around them is up to you.
Ok so I guess all these people are idiots and don't know what they're talking about:

https://medium.com/the-unbalanced/how-is-marco-estrada-still-underrated-4dd5c1052c60

https://jaysjournal.com/2017/05/22/blue-jays-estradas-value-keeps-going/

http://nationalpost.com/g00/sports/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-pitcher-marco-estrada-has-travelled-a-long-road-from-the-tough-side-of-town-to-the-toast-of-toronto/wcm/2c7d86d0-ab26-4da0-bb95-1e722d6f9570?i10c.referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.ca%2F

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/mlb/news/marco-estrada-playoffs-pitchers-changeup-home-run-fly-ballb/n2xzyia6hhue12zkym453v0z4

https://calltothepen.com/2016/06/06/toronto-blue-jays-marco-estrada-impressive-officially-ace-conversation/

Quote
Marco Estrada has come into 2017 healthy and with the same elite stuff he has showcased since arriving in Toronto

Quote
With the arsenal that Estrada relies on, its entirely possible that he could continue his elite production over the next several years.

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Blue Jays pitching coach Pete Walker said Estrada has the respect of every guy in the clubhouse because of the way he carries himself and the work hes done to become an elite pitcher.

Quote
Make a list of the best changeups in baseball. Cole Hamels comes to mind. Does Marco Estrada? He should. Estrada has an elite 21.63 percent whiff rate with the pitch, putting the offering among the league leading pitches for whiff rate.

Quote
Often you will find a converted starter find success as a reliever, but Estrada has become elite while staying in the starting rotation.

Pete Walker was one of those people quoted.  I guess you must just know more than him, right?

People like you truly are the scourge of the internet.  You're completely full of hot air.  Full of yourself.  Always talking down others baselessly, disagreeing for no reason other than to pretend that you're "right".  Get a life.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #472 on: July 28, 2017, 04:43:25 PM »
Ok so I guess all these people are idiots and don't know what they're talking about:

No, they're just exaggerating. Except for the one about the swing and miss rate on his change-up. I'm pretty sure the topic of conversation wasn't "Does Marco Estrada have a good swing and miss rate on one of his pitches" though.

Pete Walker was one of those people quoted.  I guess you must just know more than him, right?

No, but I think numbers like IP, WAR and FIP, are more objective than he is. Coaches talk up their players. It's not that tricky a concept.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #473 on: July 28, 2017, 04:44:32 PM »
 ::)

I'm going to stick to another forum to talk about the Blue Jays.  Later guys.  Enjoy your time with Nik the Troll.

Offline herman

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #474 on: July 28, 2017, 04:54:11 PM »

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #475 on: July 28, 2017, 06:06:39 PM »

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #476 on: July 28, 2017, 06:42:24 PM »
People like you truly are the scourge of the internet.  You're completely full of hot air.  Full of yourself.  Always talking down others baselessly, disagreeing for no reason other than to pretend that you're "right".  Get a life.

But that's all you've do... ah forget about it you seem to have left anyway.

Offline Frank E

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #477 on: July 28, 2017, 08:05:59 PM »
I'm starting to think that Tulo just doesn't like playing baseball any more.

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #478 on: July 28, 2017, 08:21:17 PM »
People like you truly are the scourge of the internet.  You're completely full of hot air.  Full of yourself.  Always talking down others baselessly, disagreeing for no reason other than to pretend that you're "right".  Get a life.

But that's all you've do... ah forget about it you seem to have left anyway.
Please show me one example.

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #479 on: July 28, 2017, 08:49:52 PM »
Please show me one example.

Literally every single one of your posts in this discussion had at least one personal insult towards Nik:

Please go away and stick to hockey.  You don't know what you're talking about.  If you're going to disagree with someone at least get it right.

As usual you add nothing to the forum but your own inflated ego.

People like you truly are the scourge of the internet.  You're completely full of hot air.  Full of yourself.

All he did was disagree with an opinion you posted on an internet discussion forum in a completely reasonable manner and you reacted in a completely unreasonable manner. I don't care what kind of opinion you have of Nik or any other poster here, you can't launch into attacks like that simply because somebody thinks that you're wrong on the internet.

Seriously, if you can't handle people disagreeing with you then just leave. You've threatened to do it like half a dozen times anyway. Including like an hour ago.

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #479 on: July 28, 2017, 08:49:52 PM »