Author Topic: Jays Roster Discussion  (Read 47402 times)

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Offline herman

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #195 on: August 28, 2016, 04:02:32 PM »
Hat trick

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #195 on: August 28, 2016, 04:02:32 PM »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #196 on: August 28, 2016, 05:14:51 PM »
Hat trick

It's going to be a fun MVP race.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Joe S.

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #197 on: August 28, 2016, 06:30:19 PM »
You think so? I thought altuve pretty much had it wrapped up... Unless he falls off a cliff in September...

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #198 on: August 28, 2016, 06:41:41 PM »
You think so? I thought altuve pretty much had it wrapped up... Unless he falls off a cliff in September...

I think he's probably the favourite but just for reference sake:

AL WAR leaders:

Trout 8.2
Betts 7.5
Altuve 7.3
Donaldson 6.3
Machado 6.1

So you'll have some stats guys arguing for Trout, you'll have the East Coast media presence probably in Betts' corner and you'll have the very real possibility that the Astros don't make the playoffs potentially hurting Altuve(which shouldn't matter but tends to.)
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #199 on: August 28, 2016, 06:54:12 PM »

For some context, some players WAR totals for their first five years:

Mike Trout: 45.4 WAR

Ted Williams: 45.1

Willie Mays: 39.4

Mickey Mantle: 39.4

Lou Gehrig: 38.7

A-Rod: 38.6

Hank Aaron: 37.2

Joe Dimaggio: 33.5

Barry Bonds: 33.2

To find ahead of Trout you basically have to go back to Babe Ruth who, remember, spent the first 5 years of his career pitching and didn't become an everyday hitter until he was 24.

Trout's led the league in WAR each of his first five seasons and put up years that significantly eclipse most of the best players in baseball history. He'll probably have one MVP to show for it.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online bustaheims

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #200 on: August 28, 2016, 09:15:41 PM »
You think so? I thought altuve pretty much had it wrapped up... Unless he falls off a cliff in September...

I think it's probably Bett's to lose, for a lot of the reasons Nik mentions.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Joe S.

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #201 on: August 29, 2016, 03:09:51 PM »
Those are all good points... I guess I'm still stuck in traditional metrics - I really need to start diving into advanced metrics and making the effort to understand them...

On a completely separate note, why is the media treating what is happening to thole like it's a thing? He's about as valuable to this team as Venditte was...

Online bustaheims

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #202 on: August 29, 2016, 03:31:50 PM »
On a completely separate note, why is the media treating what is happening to thole like it's a thing? He's about as valuable to this team as Venditte was...

Lack of negative things to talk about.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #203 on: August 29, 2016, 04:13:33 PM »
Those are all good points... I guess I'm still stuck in traditional metrics - I really need to start diving into advanced metrics and making the effort to understand them...

Kind of interestingly Altuve's bWAR is almost entirely a result of his hitting, with a offensive WAR of 7.2(putting him just behind Trout). Betts is a ways behind at 5.3 but he closes the gap because he's grading as having a spectacular defensive season.

So that might tilt things a little bit in Altuve's way. I think defensive ability is harder to gauge and with less certainty so with Altuve being a reigning gold glover some people out there might read the defense as a wash despite the advanced numbers and just look at Altuve's significantly better year at the plate.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Potvin29

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #204 on: August 29, 2016, 04:20:01 PM »
Which is more accurate, bWAR or fWAR? Donaldson ranks 2nd in the AL in fWAR behind Trout (7.2 to 6.9).

Online bustaheims

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #205 on: August 29, 2016, 04:22:12 PM »
Kind of interestingly Altuve's bWAR is almost entirely a result of his hitting, with a offensive WAR of 7.2(putting him just behind Trout). Betts is a ways behind at 5.3 but he closes the gap because he's grading as having a spectacular defensive season.

So that might tilt things a little bit in Altuve's way. I think defensive ability is harder to gauge and with less certainty so with Altuve being a reigning gold glover some people out there might read the defense as a wash despite the advanced numbers and just look at Altuve's significantly better year at the plate.

I dunno. I also think a lot of the old school voters will look at Betts' numbers and see the kinds of numbers they like to see that Altuve may not be able to reach - 30+ HR, 100+ RBIs, etc - and feel like that more than makes up for the difference between their respective batting averages. The rest of their raw numbers are awfully close. I mean, to an old school type, the only thing Altuve really has on Betts is that he walks more - and, I can see them not valuing that anywhere close as high as they should.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #206 on: August 29, 2016, 04:29:35 PM »
I dunno. I also think a lot of the old school voters will look at Betts' numbers and see the kinds of numbers they like to see that Altuve may not be able to reach - 30+ HR, 100+ RBIs, etc - and feel like that more than makes up for the difference between their respective batting averages. The rest of their raw numbers are awfully close. I mean, to an old school type, the only thing Altuve really has on Betts is that he walks more - and, I can see them not valuing that anywhere close as high as they should.

Betts is only 7 RBI up on Altuve(94 to 87) so it seems pretty likely that they'll both hit 100. Altuve will probably finish with 25+ homeruns so I don't know how big a deal that will be.

I think old school writers really like it when guys lead the league in traditional stat categories, something Altuve is doing right now in hits and batting average. Betts is leading the league in total bases which is probably more significant but fits less of a narrative.

Either way, if I had to guess the finish right now I'd guess 1. Altuve 2. Betts 3. Donaldson. If you asked me who I'd vote for it'd probably be 1. Trout 2. Altuve 3. Donaldson.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #207 on: August 29, 2016, 04:33:32 PM »
Which is more accurate, bWAR or fWAR? Donaldson ranks 2nd in the AL in fWAR behind Trout (7.2 to 6.9).

I don't think it's a question of either being more accurate than the other because there's no definitive answer to the question of what makes one ball player more valuable than the other. You just have to look at their methods and decide which one you like better really. Both have value though. I'm not as big into the FIPS stuff as fangraphs is(as far as I recall) so I like BR better.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Online Frank E

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #208 on: September 02, 2016, 12:32:10 PM »
Can someone explain to me what just happened with Thole?

Please and thank you.

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #209 on: September 02, 2016, 12:36:18 PM »
Can someone explain to me what just happened with Thole?

Please and thank you.
They got rid of him to make room for Navarro and now that the roster has expanded they had room to bring him back.

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #209 on: September 02, 2016, 12:36:18 PM »