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Messages - mr grieves

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: July 04, 2019, 11:41:34 AM »
After the latest two signing, barring any more moves, it leaves just under 10M for Marner.

Who would they move if Marner gets 11? Seems like Hyman would be the only option. Unless they're trying to move Ceci, but I doubt that.

Marner won't get 11. But Hyman and Dermott starting on LTIR gives them space, no?

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Zaitsev and Brown traded to Ottawa
« on: July 04, 2019, 11:38:22 AM »
No bonus per CapFriendly

Sign-and-trade dreams dead.

3
Not sure why people keep bringing up the suspensions as the reason for the trade... actually I do know why: easy narrative.

Kadri was the best trade chit we could afford to move on from under the right circumstances for an RD (thanks to Kerfoot). He’s 30 at great cap value and has scored 30 goals before. Trading Nylander is asinine. Kapanen or Johnsson are individually not enough for anything worthwhile. This was simply the cost of doing the business of trading from strength to shore up a weakness.

They can spin it all they want to but you know the players and management were pissed off at Kadri for that suspension. I know I'd be and while he wasn't the main reason they lost, he contributed in a way he shouldn't have. So while he was a good trade chip, his suspensions sure made it easier to let him go.

At the risk of sounding Nik-ish: That it makes letting him go easier is different from the suspensions being a significant factor in the trade. Other things that made it easier to let him go: his age/peak, his cost relative to his place on the depth chart, the acquisition is cheap options for the bottom-6 centers.

I only point it out because I think easy narratives obscure the main one: Dubas moved all the 24+ trade chips he had, which puts his offseason on the far end of conservative-to-aggressive spectrum. Bold summer for Kyle. And, given the state of the Barrie contract and Ceci's obviously being a stop-gap, he's not overly worried about seasons beyond 2019-20. That's more aggressive than I expected him to be.

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: June 24, 2019, 08:36:48 AM »
Right, but something doesn't quite jive there.  Stamkos is a better pure goal scorer than Crosby and McDavid, but both of them are regarded as the better players and have better contracts than him.  Also, Kucherov's deal pays him more than Stamkos.  So if there is a premium on goal scoring centers, shouldn't Stamkos be regarded higher?

Matthews contract is, imo, really simple. He's very nearly without peer. He's a better pure goal scorer than any of the names you've listed above and, in his first three seasons, he outperformed everyone in the league not named Ovechkin -- and there, at 5v5, he's only behind by a hair. Ovi signed a 13-year contract under the last CBA at ~17% of the cap. Matthews's at ~14% is pretty much right.

Marner, on the other hand, has a lot of peers. They're all great players, but none of them have made 13% on the cap on a second contract, and, as much as people are saying it's a new market and RFAs are getting paid, until one of them actually does** -- it isn't. 

** the one who's in the same league as Marner: Eichel, Buffalo's franchise center. So, at this point, we can say that when a team is sufficiently talent-starved it'll pay the best player it's got over 13%.

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: June 19, 2019, 01:46:18 PM »
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.

If they don't sign Marner, they would be taking a step back anyway.

Sure, but whether they'd be able then take steps forward -- and quickly -- is different under a scenario where Marner's making $11m on the Leafs vs. one where he's making that on the Rangers & the Leafs have their four firsts plus a UFA that gives you 80% of Marner for less than his contract ask.

6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: June 19, 2019, 01:27:32 PM »
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: June 19, 2019, 01:17:29 PM »
This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

Signing an offer sheet doesn't necessarily mean he wants to leave Toronto -- it might mean he wants to use what little leverage he has an RFA to force the team that holds his rights to pay him what he thinks he's worth.

Not that I think Dubas ought to look at it that way.

If he really doesn't want to leave, and that's his bottom line, he won't risk it by signing an offer sheet.  If OTOH that's not his ultimate bottom line, he will.

That reasoning is too abstract / philosophical for my tastes.

If his camp is convinced that he's worth more than the Leafs' best pre-OS offer and that the Leafs wouldn't dare losing a player as talented as Mitch Marner, they could certainly sign an offer sheet expecting, without much further thought, that the Leafs would simply match, getting them the salary they think Marner deserves.

And I don't think they'd be wrong. It's 50/50.

8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: June 19, 2019, 06:55:47 AM »
This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

Signing an offer sheet doesn't necessarily mean he wants to leave Toronto -- it might mean he wants to use what little leverage he has an RFA to force the team that holds his rights to pay him what he thinks he's worth.

Not that I think Dubas ought to look at it that way.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: June 05, 2019, 04:08:47 PM »
I really don't see this situation any differently than the Nylander deal. The agent starts high, the gm starts low, and they meet more or less in the middle - I'd wager a 6 year deal at about 10M.

The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

The only thing stopping them here is an internal decision to handle Marner before anything else. As signs have begun pointing toward a more drawn out negotiation with Marner, Dubas has started to move off that position.

As has been discussed before, there's no penalty on the cap. If Marner signs a deal for $10M in the summer or in November, the impact on the cap is the same. Either way, it's $10M on the cap.

How can this be true given the way the Nylander deal worked out and affected the 18-19 cap?

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: June 04, 2019, 09:42:36 AM »

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: June 04, 2019, 12:35:45 AM »
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

If he knows the Leafs will match and wants that extra $500k, why wouldn't he?

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: June 02, 2019, 12:34:40 PM »

Who knows if it's true. But there's surely some reporting out there (Dreger) that's roughly consistent with the story. It sure look like Marner's side is working the media hard... I wonder what the reality is behind the PR campaign.

1. Creating a media narrative to justify their ask in advance of presenting their own proposed deals? (that's the obvious one, the usual explanation -- framing the debate)
2. Pumping up expectations so when he signs for a 2-3% overpayment on similar players' second contracts (i.e. $9.5m) he's hailed as a hero and avoids Nylander's press? (the conspiratorial explanation, not inconsistent with other options)
3. Having already received Dubas's best offer, trying to scare the Leafs into moving in their direction by threatening he'll entertain offers during the RFA period? (here it'd be helpful to know what number of stories is built on leaks from Marner's side)

I still think Dubas should just give Marner's side a number ($9.16m) and a list of possible terms (8 on down to... 3?). Forget deep discounts on a bridge. Let the agent pick the term. Just get him under contract at a number the team can manage -- and if there's no such number, take control of his destiny and put Marner on the market so the Leafs can maximize return

13
The issue there is they won't be able to trade them for 12 months after matching the offer sheet. They'd need to be proactive about it.

Right, I was speaking more in the general sense about the problems with offer sheets and why we don't see too many of them. Unless we're working under the assumption that Kapanen/Johnsson get offersheeted at a price that the Leafs simply can't make work under the cap but, to me at least, that goes back to the "too high, bad decision" category.

In the case of Johnsson and Kapanen, the term plays into it, I think. Yes, the Leafs can afford any reasonable 2 or 3 year offer either would get, but Leafs simply wouldn't be able to fit much more than a bridge under the cap. If some team decides Kapanen is a good bet for a 5 year deal at $4.25m or whatever -- which I think most of us would rate a good, fair, not too high deal -- then the Leafs would probably be stuck with a 2nd.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: May 29, 2019, 04:58:40 PM »
I don't really recall Matthews or Nylander's agents ever going this route, at least not to this extent. And they both still got fair deals for their clients.

Well, with Matthews the Leafs seem to have taken the bold negotiating stance of "Give him whatever he wants" and while we can argue about the extent to which Nylander's camp was roundly criticized for how they negotiated at the time, I'm still not sure I'd be too quick to judge Marner's camp for not wanting to follow the "Have a terrible season and make most of the fanbase hate you" model.

Do you think the agent's objective in working the press--pushing a higher number--is to get a "fair value" resolution faster? I hadn't considered how the press leaks could affect the timing of when a deal gets done, and, at first blush, I can't quite see how saying "he wants a Matthews-esque deal" gets a Nylander-esque deal (i.e. a cap hit we all sort of expect) done in June.

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: May 29, 2019, 12:31:58 PM »
I'm wondering if anyone on this board thinks Marner will be playing with a different team, other than the Leafs next season?

I'd peg it very low, less than 5% if even that high. Everything points against it.

First, a team must be willing to give up 4 firsts which is a lot to give up for Marner.

Second, Leafs can match any offer which they most certainly would.

Third, Marner must be willing to go, which if we're being honest, he does seem to like being a Leaf and likes his teammates.

The teams that will be able to offer $10m+ will not be in a position to contend which I think will also be a consideration. Leafs are a contender now.

The NHL restricted free agent system is extremely restrictive and non-competitive.

I'd say 5% chance via offer-sheet, for the reasons you list. Highly unlikely the Leafs get forced into a corner.

But an offer sheet isn't the only way he isn't on the Leafs next season. If his side is serious about $10m+, the Leafs could start fielding offers from teams that'd be willing to go that distance.

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