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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by Nik the Trik on Today at 06:38:05 PM »
For all the talk about ROR and how good he is there seems to be a growing list of teams who suck with him and improve without him???

O'Reilly's last year with the Avalanche was in 2014-2015 and the team had 90 points. They traded him and then had two seasons of 82 and then 48 points.

So really the list is just at 1. Although it does have to be said that going from 0-1 is technically growth, I'm not sure it qualifies as a list.
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Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Last post by Nik the Trik on Today at 06:30:25 PM »
Sorry, got confused. I thought we were talking about before the Jays traded for him.

Right and, again, when he was at his peak his road OPS was consistently in the 860-880 range. When he was traded he'd had about 180 games over two seasons where it was about 50-70 points lower than that.

So that's the evidence for the contention that his bat was already starting to slip when he was traded.
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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by Bates on Today at 06:26:17 PM »
For all the talk about ROR and how good he is there seems to be a growing list of teams who suck with him and improve without him??? Might be a coincidence but I'm not sure I really want to find out??
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Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Last post by Dappleganger on Today at 06:25:21 PM »
When the Jays traded for Tulo his road OPS hadn't fallen by more than 100 points.

Right, I didn't say it had. From where he was consistently at his peak it had fallen by around 50 points by the time of the trade which is still a pretty meaningful decline. From 2013 to 2015 it's a fairly unmistakable downward slide in his ability to hit in any ballpark other than Coors.

Sorry, got confused. I thought we were talking about before the Jays traded for him.
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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by Nik the Trik on Today at 06:22:13 PM »

I think it'd be tough because after the run the Leafs would be in a good spot on one hand(O'Reilly is a good player and teams probably want him) but a tough one on the other(they'd still be trying to trade a player they couldn't conceivably keep).

I like the idea of a rental they flip in the off-season but I really think that if they have assets like that to spend at the deadline a defenseman just makes so much more sense.
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Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Last post by Nik the Trik on Today at 06:13:39 PM »
When the Jays traded for Tulo his road OPS hadn't fallen by more than 100 points.

Right, I didn't say it had. From where he was consistently at his peak it had fallen by around 50 points by the time of the trade which is still a pretty meaningful decline. From 2013 to 2015 it's a fairly unmistakable downward slide in his ability to hit in any ballpark other than Coors.
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Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Last post by Dappleganger on Today at 06:09:13 PM »
I get the Coors field bump, but his entire career was played at Coors Field and doesn't bear out a decline. His home OPS increased from 1.010 in 2013 to 1.246 in 2014.

Right, but that's why road statistics are typically used as the context-neutral baseline. During his peak years(2009-2011), Tulowitzki had Road OPS's of .859, .863 and even .881. In 2013 it was fairly consistent with that and by 2015 it had fallen more than 100 points. So the evidence that he had already begun to slip from his peak is actually pretty strong even if Coors was covering that up a little. 

One of the tricky things with Tulowitzki, because he was injured so often, is separating what of his decline is injury related, what is age related and what is just the standard variations in a baseball career. In this case though, when you compare him to his peak, it's pretty clear he was already moving away from his best years.

When the Jays traded for Tulo his road OPS hadn't fallen by more than 100 points.

I don't think anyone would argue that the Jays were trading for peak Troy Tulowitzki.

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Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Last post by Nik the Trik on Today at 06:08:40 PM »

Another thing worth mentioning re: Tulowitzki's 2014 is that his BABIP was a fairly uncharacteristic .355 so his slightly stronger home numbers there were probably not sustainable even if he'd stayed in Colorado.
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General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« Last post by herman on Today at 06:04:47 PM »
Thanks to St. Louis' goaltending issues, they sound like they're ready to just throw all their stars out the door. The prices will likely be young prospects and picks, which we have (not oodles of, mind you).

Obviously the Pietrangelo rumour from Kypreos drew the headlines. Parayko is the younger, defensively better option that will cost more (longer term, smaller hit). Tarasenko's name is now also being floated in media speculation as everyone thinks he looks super unhappy with how things are going.

Those would all be fun, but other than Parayko, I think the biggest impact get might actually be Ryan O'Reilly as a one year rental (even though he has 4 more years at 7.5M to go).

We can easily absorb the cap hit this year at the deadline (thanks, Nylander!). Babcock loves having spare centres and faceoff takers and penalty killers. O'Reilly is a legitimate shutdown centre. Our left shots wings are weak, and he can line up in all three positions.

For all the griping about our defense corps issues, the real problem is structural and it stems from a lot of the forwards doing diddly squat in the d-box or providing poop support (hey, Marner).

So similar to my Taylor Hall rental proposal, let's rent him for a year and recoup the costs in other areas -- i.e. a young defenseman -- after July 1st when MLSE easily pays off his signing bonus up front for a better return from a team desperate for a 1st line quality centre (so much resale value).

Kadri - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Matthews - Nylander
Johnsson - O'Rielly - Kapanen/Hyman
Ennis - Lindholm - Hyman/Brown

I assume one of Johnsson, Kapanen, Hyman, or Brown will be part of the deal, and one of the higher end Marlies (Bracco, Timashov), and probably a 1st rder.
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Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Last post by Nik the Trik on Today at 05:52:57 PM »
I get the Coors field bump, but his entire career was played at Coors Field and doesn't bear out a decline. His home OPS increased from 1.010 in 2013 to 1.246 in 2014.

Right, but that's why road statistics are typically used as the context-neutral baseline. During his peak years(2009-2011), Tulowitzki had Road OPS's of .859, .863 and even .881. In 2013 it was fairly consistent with that and by 2015 it had fallen more than 100 points. So the evidence that he had already begun to slip from his peak is actually pretty strong even if Coors was covering that up a little. 

One of the tricky things with Tulowitzki, because he was injured so often, is separating what of his decline is injury related, what is age related and what is just the standard variations in a baseball career. In this case though, when you compare him to his peak, it's pretty clear he was already moving away from his best years.
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