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Messages - herman

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First shot changeup knuckler is a fun strategy.

Freddy gets the start, so Sparks will go tomorrow against Boston.
I'm still trying to figure this one out.

It's Babcock's policy: regardless of opponent, first game always goes to the starter so he has the best chance of nailing down a win. Second game already has a strong likelihood of losing inherent to playing a second game in a row, so why try to game the competition by putting a weaker goaltender out front first and then wasting your starter on the follow up. Something like that.

What I’ve really come to understand from doing this project is that we can’t live by what’s counted for as shots on goal in an official capacity. The only way you can be 100 percent accurate is if you have two sets of eyes on every game — live on the game and then another person on the computer reconciling what’s coming in. We have first, second and third looks at every chance. Our numbers will never be the same as the NHL’s. And we’re OK with that because we’re doing the due diligence that needs to be done. This affects shooting percentages, save percentages, things that are coming into play when contracts are being discussed.

Distance from the net, plus deflections on the ice don’t go in as frequently as ones off the ice. It wasn’t really that hard of a save. When you look at our designations, your goalie can never let a red one in. You need saves on the yellow ones and you can live with goals on the green ones because you’re only supposed to give up maybe six a night. And one of every three of the high-percentage shots goes in every night. One of three, one of three — breakaways, odd-man rushes, broken plays, it always comes back to that range.

That last part might give an indication as to why the Leafs have overused the stretch pass play. When it works, it's a 27-30% chance at a goal. When it doesn't, it's the puck in a reset position. What they need to do more is use a larger variety of plays to take advantage of a defense that is defending the stretch pass (a la football runs vs throws).

Good thing I didn't bother looking up more numbers about this.

If that's the gamble (and note that a scoring chance off a successful stretch pass is a partial/full breakaway, which has a 27-30% chance of resulting in a goal), then yeah, of course they're going to fire away (oh man, wait 'til you see Liljegren on the Leafs). If a stretch pass completes, it's either a rush chance, or an opportunity to set up on a panicking defense. If it misses, it's either an icing, or a turnover in the other zone with all players on top of the puck.

What we've seen lately is better forward support recognizing when the stretch play is not the right option and swinging lower (F3 below the blue), and generally more skill with the puck up and down the lineup to facilitate holding and waiting a little bit longer.

The guys they're firing up the ice are the diggers who aren't really handlers (Hyman, Brown) or speedsters (Kapanen, Ennis). If you can spring Kapanen for 3 breakaways a game, he's going to average out just a hair under a goal per game if he only had average skill (he has more than that).

Head rubs for all!


Not sure why, but this reminds me of that time Ron Tugnutt got selected for the All Star Game because the guy ahead of him (CuJo?) pulled his groin.

Hey, are we still worried that the Leafs went 5 straight home games without scoring goals in the first 40 minutes, breaking a 100-year old record, or nah?

Before we get too high, this PDO bubble will also occasionally burst in the other direction for us; it generally evens out after a full season of games.

I will say, however, the Leafs are doing a pretty solid job smothering chances and winning the puck back, so Andersen's 0.962 or whatever save percentage is not entirely a mirage. Team efforts are pretty hard to keep up, and I'm hoping most of the lines are able to when the big guns come back (because they're kind of bad at it).

On the team’s home form turning around with two straight wins at Scotiabank Arena:

I mean, I don’t think our last couple were any better than when we lost to Dallas or lost to Pittsburgh. To be honest with you, we probably played better in those games, but the puck went in. That is what happens sometimes. At home, when it doesn’t go your way and you think it should, you start pressing a little bit, and I think that gets in your way a little bit. Ideally, this will loosen us up at home and we will play better.

FRANKIE SCORED TONIGHT (a goal in a hockey game).

Lindholm wasn't that impressive through preseason and the first few games of the regular season but he's sure come on lately. Really liking his game now

I wasn't quite sure how to quantify it, but in the earlier games, I could see he was capable of and trying for offense but was still adjusting to the speed of the NHL and his cold linemates. He had the vision and the agility, but everything was just a bit behind.

No more Leivo on his wing seemed to really help the push; Brown and Johnsson, though inconsistent in scoring, are very consistent in positioning and puck battling so very easy to play off of. Paid off well tonight.

General NHL News & Views / Re: Official Ottawa Senators Thread
« on: November 09, 2018, 10:07:44 PM »

More sens/twitter fun.

It would be so good if this is where Melnyk's money was going.

Edit: Does this have anything to do with 'Dorion's' burner account?

MotM: Hainsey
HM: Ennis

Head rubs: Marner, Tavares, Kadri, Brown, Lindholm, Johnsson, Dermott, Hyman, Andersen, Marleau

Haha Lindholm still trying to score at the end.

Omg that Lindholm pass. The man has no mercy.

I hope Hainsey also needs a break tomorrow.

I love that Babcock is trying to get that point back for Ozhiganov (I suspect he’s sitting tomorrow night).

Down goes Brown!

Babcock struggling to get mad about it.

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