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Messages - herman

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You like mixing goal stats with shootout goals?

You just shattered my ignorant bliss.

I hope you feel bad.

The last time I felt bad was from eating some bad white tuna at an AYCE. That was 4 days of bad.

This, this is the joy of shining light into the darkness.

Shore = Ben Smith/Byron Froese = Luke Glendening

Corsi For since 2016:

Ben Smith 41.8%
Byron Froese 45.6%
Luke Glendening 42.7%
Nick Shore 53.4%

One of these things is not like the others.


ew, people go to

I do all the time. It's an easy way to get stats.


You like mixing goal stats with shootout goals?

Shore = Ben Smith/Byron Froese = Luke Glendening

ew, people go to

But they were deployed for 20 minutes over 3 games and got scored on (probably due to a lost draw?). No coach is going to say, I'll play them more and let that even out over time.

Spezza's two 5-on-5 goals against were both scored off the rush. One was (what I would consider) an easily stoppable slapshot by Oscar Sundqvist that went through Andersen's five-hole against St. Louis. The other was in the Tampa game, the puck was dumped into Toronto's end after a Leafs powerplay and Andersen passed it directly to a wide-open Stamkos for some reason and he passed it to Kucherov who scored.

Shore's two 5-on-5 goals against were the Sabourin goal against Ottawa and the Mayhew goal against Minnesota. Both goals were the result of poor defensive zone coverage on cycles, and both saw Shore not collapsing down low and picking up the open player who scored. Both goals conveniently enough were also scored by non-NHLers.

Ah thanks.

What's your goal look up method, by the way?

GA/60 is a pretty meaningless stat over 20 minutes.

Yes. No predictive value.

But they were deployed for 20 minutes over 3 games and got scored on (was there a lost draw on those Andersen gaffes?). No coach is going to say, I'll play them more and let that even out over time.

Their zone starts are hilariously skewed, and it's pretty clear why Babcock has favoured Shore/Timashov over Spezza/Petan in the early goings
Frederik Gauthier71:4057.7760.2848.943.355.021113353
Dmytro Timashov44:3056.6368.7645.164.044.04072734
Nick Shore43:4056.5570.3444.574.142.76173428
Jason Spezza20:2279.5432.4171.052.955.89141017
Nic Petan21:2581.2533.6270.732.85.614819
via NaturalStatTrick

At the same time:
Spezza-Petan were assigned to play: Columbus, St. Louis, Tampa
Shore-Timashov got: Ottawa, Montreal, Detroit, Minnesota, Washington

Not shown above are the faceoffs taken. Gauthier has 51 5v5 DZ faceoffs taken in his 8 games. Shore also has 51 5v5 DZ draws taken in his 5 games played and winning his draws (regardless of zone) at 68.75%. Only Gauthier is better at 70.27%. Spezza is 4 for 12.

The caveat is these are awfully low sample sizes to draw any predictive conclusions, and quality of competition miiiight be a factor -- although line 4 vs line 4 might be more of a wash, other than Tampa. But the thing with coaching decisions with limited TOI is that you probably have to lean on your 'hot' hand while the results are in your favour. Top 9 decisions are where you take a slightly longer view because they have way more puck touches to normalize.

The old "not good enough to be a 4th liner, but good enough to be a 3rd liner" routine.

I think Babcock's contention with Spezza on line 4 is always his defensive 'instincts', not his offensive capabilities.


Freed Willy.

Watch him score 4 goals and really free willy Joe Thornton style.
Honestly surprised no one has done it what with all the 4-goal games we've seen recently.

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nick Robertson signed to 3 yr ELC
« on: Yesterday at 10:19:29 AM »
Middle-six offensive winger that could be plugged into any line as both the digger and finisher.

He's a different flavour of the type of player Dubas has clearly favoured on the wings since he's had personnel control: plug and play players because they are fast/agile, smart as a base, and some standout strength to build off of.

Because of his skating, playstyle, and pitbull mentality regarding puck retrieval, he's an NHLer at minimum. He trains with Gary Roberts if you're wondering whether this tiny person can eventually put on the muscle to play this way. His shooting ability can push him top 6 depending on team's depth on LW at the time.

If you're looking at his draft year numbers and wondering why it's a bit underwhelming: Peterborough was garbage as a team and Robertson started the year injured (wrist) and mostly played the season in spite of it (for the draft).

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nick Robertson signed to 3 yr ELC
« on: Yesterday at 09:42:52 AM »
He's a smaller Trevor Moore*, but with better skating at a younger age and a wicked pair of shots in the toolbox (snap n' slap). The motor will translate, the nose for the net will translate (he just has to build some bulk over the next couple of years), the play away from the puck needs a bit of refinement still.

We'll know more at a higher level. This is looking ahead quite a bit, but I expect both Robertson and Der Arguchintsev to get ATOs with the Growlers at the end of their junior season (2nd time for SDA).

* Trevor Moore was an undrafted invite to the Leafs' 2016 dev camp (same time as Matthews'). He did not have the wheels he does today but he had a quickness to his game in attacking seams and bodying through contact unabated.

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nick Robertson signed to 3 yr ELC
« on: October 17, 2019, 10:06:14 PM »

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Tavares out with a broken finger
« on: October 17, 2019, 02:37:50 PM »
Intriguing. I don’t think we are piling on more LTIR...

Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Mikheyev - Kerfoot - Marner
Moore - Petan/Spezza - Kapanen
Timashov - Shore - Gauthier


Moore - Matthews - Marner
Johnsson - Nylander - Kapanen
Mikheyev - Kerfoot - Timashov
Petan - Shore - Gauthier

He didn't sit anyone. There was 2:00 left in the game. He knows that you can't put out your top two players for the last 2 minutes. He expected a 45 second shift from the first group and then a chance to change when Washington got control and dumped it.
It didn't happen. The Leafs controlled the puck for 1:40 seconds. The line change wasn't possible without purposely giving up control of the puck. Oh well.

I sometimes wonder if some of you have ever played or coached hockey before. From about the 5 minute mark remaining in the 3rd period(especially in a close one) the coach is trying  to time his line changes so that his best players are on for the last minute. It's a game. Plans go awry. It works sometimes. Sometimes it doesn't.


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