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Messages - Nik the Trik

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Trade deadline moves
« on: January 16, 2019, 04:25:28 PM »
Ah, fair enough.

Is that a statement of opinion or fact? I.e is there relative data, or are you just pointing out that the Leafs have won a lot of home games?

There's certainly data on it, over the almost 20 years this board has existed the "The ACC is too quiet thing" has been brought up before and people have thrown numbers around that more or less conclude that the Leafs at home aren't much different than anyone else. I don't have any links handy if that's what you're looking for but just via eyeballs the Leafs tied for the 2nd most home wins in the league just last year.

2
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Useless Thread
« on: January 16, 2019, 03:55:20 PM »
Parliament CAN override a referendum - a referendum isn't binding, it's only advisory. But 2 years ago the Conservative party said they would fulfil the wishes of the referendum so they would be unlikely to do that as it would likely cost them votes in future general elections.

That's why a new referendum might be called - a different result would get them out of that particular mess.

There is some push for a new referendum but in all honesty I think the appetite is more along the lines of most people are sick of it and "just get Brexit done now". It's dragged on for 2 years and there are multiple other issues that have been ignored because of it.

The thing that strikes me as really crazy, not that the whole thing isn't crazy, is that the far-right wing of the Tory party and how they're playing it. They led a no-confidence vote against Theresa May in December and voted against the Brexit deal but then supported her unanimously in today's vote of no-confidence in the Government. Because May has already said she won't be leading the Tories into a new election, voting against her today would have been the far-right's chance to get one of their own Hard Brexit types as Prime Minister.

Of course, the problem there is that I think they know that if they go into a General Election actually campaigning on No-Deal Brexit and with someone like Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg as Leader they'd probably lose the election. So rather than risk that, they backed May today.

But I don't really see where that gets them. May is almost certainly going to try to make an appeal to Labour to get them behind a renegotiated deal rather than give the hard-right what they want so by not getting rid of May, they'll probably get a softer Brexit than the one they just voted against.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Trade deadline moves
« on: January 16, 2019, 03:06:27 PM »
Freakonomics radio did an episode where they worked with some people who had studied home field advantage, and found that the data says itís real. They concluded the explanation was involuntary referee bias.

For anyone interested the Freakonomics episode can be found here: http://freakonomics.com/2011/12/18/football-freakonomics-how-advantageous-is-home-field-advantage-and-why/

Which suggests Leafs fans could be doing more to help the team if they were louder.

You are misreading my statement. I'm not saying home-field advantage doesn't exist, I'm saying that there's no indication when you look at the Leafs' home-ice advantage over the years that their home-ice advantage is distinctly worse than anyone else's, which it would if as ZBBM claims the Leafs play in a particularly quiet building.

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Trade deadline moves
« on: January 15, 2019, 11:21:09 PM »
My gut don't believe you.

My gut is literally telling me to go to bed.

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Trade deadline moves
« on: January 15, 2019, 11:14:49 PM »
Over the years I've read all kinds of excuses but it literally is like playing in a library.  Aside from a few weak GLG chants every once in awhile there is nothing to generate excitement.  Say what you will but it does make it a bit easier for other teams.

The chief excuse you hear is "But that's not borne out by actually looking at the team's home record over the years" but, I mean, are you going to believe that over your gut?

6
General NHL News & Views / Re: 2018-2019 NHL Thread
« on: January 15, 2019, 08:53:25 PM »
Would anyone trade Brown for Puljujarvi?
I'd do it.  Worst case, he fails here too and Moore takes over Brown's spot.

It's an interesting question. I know it's not a satisfying answer but I think this is something where you'd have to actually have an opinion on Puljujarvi beyond "He was drafted high, therefore he's got untapped potential that the Oilers just haven't figured out."

Otherwise, while you're right that there's not a huge hockey cost if Brown goes, I'd have to weigh the actual potential Puljujarvi's got(and his ability to be a functional bottom 6 guy) vs. generally being happy with team chemistry as is.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Trade deadline moves
« on: January 15, 2019, 01:00:36 PM »

Nylander's scoring slump probably insulates him right now against any serious trade discussions even if Dubas were inclined towards considering trading him.

But honestly, I just don't see the wisdom in going all in anyway. Realistically nothing the Leafs could do at the deadline would make them the favourites to get out of their division so you'd probably be spending assets to go from, like, 30 to 32 percent of it happening. It's a good team and if they get hot at the right moment they could make noise and if they don't they won't. That might not fill anyone with a ton of hope but it has the added benefit of being true of every other team in the league.

8
General NHL News & Views / Re: 2018-2019 NHL Thread
« on: January 14, 2019, 03:15:53 PM »
Have you seen their trade record? Nature finds a way.

I don't know what you're referring to but I'm referring to their ability to run their business this badly, get government subsidies for a new arena and have the general public support their locking out their employees to preserve their right to profitability.

9
General NHL News & Views / Re: 2018-2019 NHL Thread
« on: January 14, 2019, 01:37:19 PM »

Imagine having their draft record and looking around and saying "Man, we really need some help at forward".

This league is such a ridiculous joke.

10
General NHL News & Views / Re: 2018-2019 NHL Thread
« on: January 13, 2019, 11:27:06 PM »

Also, re: Kovalchuk while I think Kovalchuk was probably the better player I think it'd be hard to overstate just how bad the offensive talent was around Nash for his career. We think of Kovalchuk as being on some bad teams and he was but for most of his career he had guys around him to take some of the scoring load off his shoulders. Hossa, Heatley, Savard, Parise...

Meanwhile, the guys Nash played with is a pretty terrible collection. The best players in his career that he was even on the same team with are probably either past-their-prime Brad Richards or Martin St. Louis or never-weres like Nikolai Zherdev and Mats Zuccarello. If he'd played with even an average collection of offensive talent I think it's fair to say he'd have finished much closer to, or even over, 500 goals.

So while I think it's unlikely that he does make the HOF, I think that has way, way more to do with the circumstances he played under rather than  a reflection on him as a player.

11
General NHL News & Views / Re: 2018-2019 NHL Thread
« on: January 13, 2019, 06:00:13 PM »
I don't think a HHOF career has a particular meaning beyond exceeding the standards the HHOF has set for itself by virtue of the players they've inducted in the past.

12
General NHL News & Views / Re: 2018-2019 NHL Thread
« on: January 13, 2019, 01:58:38 PM »
Nice career. Not a HHOF tho but solid career.
[/quote

I think there's 10-12 people who've been inducted he's clearly better than but the particular biases of the HHOF will work against him in that regard.

13
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Russell Martin traded
« on: January 12, 2019, 04:49:07 PM »
I might regret asking this question, but couldn't they just have made Jansen the #1, and Martin as back-up?

They could have, sure, but it seems pretty unlikely that Martin would be all that happy catching 30-45 games next year and this way they save a little bit of money and add some bodies.

14
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Russell Martin traded
« on: January 12, 2019, 02:47:10 PM »
Sports net is saying between 16-18 mil of his 20 mil jays will cover.

So 40 mil+ for 2 players not to play. Good thing there isnít a salary cap.

Well, yeah, but the alternative is paying them 100% of their salary to play badly.

Iím complaining. Just is an astounding amount of money.

In the Martin scenario theyíre essentially paying 18mil for a couple of prospects.

Sure, but that dead money is a pretty inevitable consequence of AA's kicking the can down the road. Signing 32 year old catchers to 5 year, big money deals had a downside and this is it.

15
Ok Blue Jays Talk / Re: Russell Martin traded
« on: January 11, 2019, 05:17:22 PM »
Sports net is saying between 16-18 mil of his 20 mil jays will cover.

So 40 mil+ for 2 players not to play. Good thing there isnít a salary cap.

Well, yeah, but the alternative is paying them 100% of their salary to play badly.

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