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Messages - princedpw

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1
LA gave Marner all the space he wanted.

The leafs are missing JVR on the pp.  They aren’t using the pass from Marner down to the net.

2
Is LA an NHL team?

Doesn’t look like it.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 12, 2018, 10:24:51 PM »
What we're doing here is dispelling myths and narratives that have crept into the Leafs zeitgeist because Willy's not blindly signing the first low-ball deal that comes his way.

One of the things I'm fairly concerned about is Nylander signing late, not having a great season, the Leafs not meeting all their expectations and an inordinate amount of dumb fan criticism falling on Nylander.

The further and further this goes, the more and more I just can't see Dubas' strategy here as being a good one. The world where whatever the difference is between Dubas' offer and Nylander's ask becomes more significant to their winning than everyone playing and happy seems pretty remote.

In the abstract, I’m not happy, but we have so little information about what the details of the offers are.

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 12, 2018, 10:20:11 PM »
Nylander also had equal, if not better numbers than Pastrnak leading up to the NHL, playing as a teenaged centre in pro leagues. When they got to the NHL, it was pretty similar at first and diverged with their usage.

Pastrnak's pro-rated points for his first 3 NHL seasons: 48 (27 pts in 46 games), 42 (26 in 51 gp), 76.5 (70 in 75 gp)
Nylander's: 48 (13 in 22 gp), 61.75 (61 in 81 gp), 61 in 82 gp

Pastrnak was elevated to the Bruins earlier because the Leafs were tanking and wanted to keep Willy out of the tire fire; that half-year of experience with Bergeron (a top-5 centre) clearly paid off. Nylander's most experienced linemate coming into the league was PA Parenteau, opposite Zach Hyman.

For me, the performance in the platform year is the most relevant.  In that year, Pasternak looks more impressive to me, though it certainly is difficult to know how to factor in the linemates, power play time, and other context.

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 12, 2018, 10:12:20 PM »
Signs there is no news on Nylander’s contract: we are now discussing consecutive games without a point of his comparables as if that is a first-order factor in the negotiations.

6
General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« on: November 11, 2018, 02:53:45 PM »
The reason the Hall trade happened, and Hall didn't really scream "franchise player" when he was traded either, ...

A minor aside that's neither here nor there when it comes to this thread:  Good oilers bloggers actually were screaming "franchise player" when he was traded (and before that).  They pointed to his possession stats which were so far above everyone else on the team it was crazy.  They observed that no matter who you played him with he dragged their shot metrics up to amazing.

(I'm just saying that many knowledgeable people panned it instantaneously as being the horrendously bad trade that it has turned out to be.)


7
Ug. Darn.

8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 10, 2018, 02:20:54 PM »
The other thing people say is that Nylander's ~16 minutes of average ice time per game pales in comparison to players like Connor McDavid who play around 22 minutes per game.  They say Nylander would score more goals and points with more minutes on the ice.  That is a fair point, IMO.  However I do also believe that Auston Matthews inflates Nylander's point totals which counteracts the ice time thing somewhat.
I don't think there's a linear progression of minutes to points. If he scored 61 points playing 16 min/game doesn't automatically mean he'll score more if he plays more minutes. Maybe the more minutes come against tougher competition or maybe he's more fatigued playing more and won't put up higher numbers

this was a thought i had a while ago too.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 09, 2018, 10:08:24 AM »

I was thinking, in the name of shrewd negotiation, that it might be good for Nylander to get himself to Toronto to put the pressure on.

Actually, that makes a lot of sense. Would certainly shift the pressure substantially.

I think Nylander coming to Toronto might be interpreted as a sign of weakness.  To avoid such signs of weakness, it seems last time they met on neutral ground.  Perhaps Dubas should go to Sweden?

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 08, 2018, 10:51:24 AM »

Especially if this really sours Nylander's relationship with the team.

I agree that the sourcing of the relationship is an important consideration here.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 08, 2018, 10:27:47 AM »
I prefer him to miss the season than to settle for a trade right now.

It has got to depend on what you get back in the trade. Dougie Hamilton and a first would be pretty attractive.

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 08, 2018, 10:25:00 AM »
Well, I hope that Dubas acts without emotion in this situation, and I have no reason to think he won’t.  Don’t worry about “getting a win” or “stubbornly showing who is right”.  Just evaluate the asset and use it in a way that maximizes what the leafs get out of it. I can’t say what the right thing to do is because despite the rumors, I really have no idea what each side is asking for.  I am surprised that Nylander’s not back simply because if I were him, I’d want to be playing hockey with my friends. Even if I didn’t think it was fair, I’d give up 10% (or 20% or whatever) of my expected salary to play this year. I probably wouldn’t want to give up 10% over 6-8 years. So a bridge deal is what I would look for.  But obviously Nylander isn’t me.

13

Textbook hips into the hands to protect the puck.

This was great but it seems to me anecdotally that Marner does get burned waiting too long in the d zone on the boards like that. He seemed to get burned a lot in previous years. Maybe he is getting better.

14
This was a game that really makes the Leafs potential seem high. Imagine adding Matthews and Nylander as the sheltered scoring unit.  :)

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 04, 2018, 08:21:27 AM »
If the Hurricanes are “all in”, I’ll take Dougie Hamilton and a first, thanks.  8)

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