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Messages - Nik the Trik

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs to announce captain
« on: Yesterday at 08:15:49 PM »
I don't disagree with any of this.

No, there's not much there that's particularly controversial. I was just trying to explain why I think who the Captain is, going forward, is going to be less about being the best leader(although that certainly will still be relevant) and more about who the team's management wants to make the public face of the franchise.

Which, odds are, is going to be the best player on the team.

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs to announce captain
« on: Yesterday at 07:16:14 PM »
I'm not exactly on board with naming the top player the captain. The captain is the best leader, not the most talented player.

I think that's a little bit of an outdated concept. For those of us of a certain age, we remember guys like Mike Keane or Wendel Clark or Trevor Linden as examples of guys who were seen as really good captains despite not always being their team's best player and, to be sure, there are still examples of that around the league.

But in terms of whether it actually matters I'm not convinced. Both in the positive and negative. Good leaders are good leaders regardless of what letter they get on their jersey and when a team has a top player who maybe doesn't fit the established notions of what good leadership is(say, with the Leafs and Kessel) it wasn't like the narrative that emerged was "Kessel isn't a very good example for his teammates...but it doesn't matter because he's not the captain".

Players on a team are going to take their cues from the top dog and I don't think the team deciding who gets the C determines who that top dog is. A young player in Edmonton is going to be looking towards McDavid no matter what.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs to announce captain
« on: Yesterday at 11:15:34 AM »
I'd say it's about 99% sure to be Matthews.

If the choice is anyone but Matthews, the story will be "Why not Matthews?". If the choice is Matthews, no one will wonder why it wasn't Rielly.

4
NHL Transactions / Re: Brock Boeser re-signs 3 years x 5.875M AAV
« on: Yesterday at 11:12:26 AM »
It might have something to do with him posting some of the greatest 5v5 goal rates in history.

There's also that. Matthews' deal may very well reflect the market value of a #1 C who scores 37 goals a year(Tavares, as a point of comparison, got 11 million per averaging 33 a year).

If Matthews had gotten paid via his projected numbers? 13+ is probably in play.

5
NHL Transactions / Re: Brock Boeser re-signs 3 years x 5.875M AAV
« on: Yesterday at 11:02:24 AM »
Which brings us back to the original question of Leafs contracts vs. rest of league guys.  Why aren't these unwritten rules applicable to Leafs players?  Boeser has to hit a certain point threshhold to be paid like that, why did Matthews get paid like a 90+ point guy even though he's never hit that level in a season, or in his career PPG?  His high salary set the bar for Marner to demand more money, whereas in Colorado, Rantanen won't be able to ask for as much as Marner because there's no team comparable that high.

I don't know that it's the original question but I think there's a difference for players perceived as legitimate superstar types. Matthews' deal in that respect is pretty similar to Eichel's.

6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs to announce captain
« on: Yesterday at 10:48:35 AM »

If guys are going to be upset that they didn't get named Captain, it's not going to make them feel better if it's Rielly instead of Matthews.

The Leafs won't make a big deal about it because it's not a big deal. If a guy has earned the team's approval by being a good leader on and off the ice then would we want his behaviour to change after getting the C? No. If there are good candidates for it who don't get it, would we want their behaviour to change because they didn't? No.

It's almost entirely meaningless symbolism at this point. If Matthews is respected by his teammates, it'll be fine if it's him.

7
NHL Transactions / Re: Brock Boeser re-signs 3 years x 5.875M AAV
« on: Yesterday at 10:45:03 AM »
And Boeser is only a 3 yr deal, only buying up RFA years.  With a Qualifying Offer of 7.5M required for the 4th year.

I know a lot's being made of these bigger QO years, but I wonder how many of the recent RFAs actually end up taking them. Meier I can potentially see because it's a monster at $10mil. But all these copy-cat ones (Boeser at $7.5mil, McAvoy at $7.3mil, Werenski at $7mil) don't really seem high enough to take on a 1-year deal to pass up a longer, more lucractive extension.

I don't think many will take it, just that it's insurance against negotiations not going well or a sub-par final year of the deal.

8
NHL Transactions / Re: Brock Boeser re-signs 3 years x 5.875M AAV
« on: Yesterday at 10:43:42 AM »
One thing to note, Boeser's points per game vs. raw points is much better.  Without injury he's a career 68 point pace guy which makes his cap hit vs. point production much better than Marner's.

I didn't express it as PPG because I think NHL teams are unlikely to pay a player as though he's hit a certain level of production unless he's actually hit it.

Like, if a player has three years of 82 points, 82 points and then 41 points in 41 games due to injury, it's fair to view him as a 80 point player.

In Boeser's case, I think that if you want to get paid like a 60+ point player, he'lll actually have to hit that level once. It's why he probably took a bridge deal. He'll want to establish his numbers over a 82 game season before he expects to get paid for it.

9
NHL Transactions / Re: Brock Boeser re-signs 3 years x 5.875M AAV
« on: Yesterday at 10:38:25 AM »

% of the cap per point scored(19-20) on their new deals:

Boeser: .129
Konecny: .138
Marner: .142

Right now the narrative that Dubas got taken to the cleaners is not holding up great.

And Boeser is only a 3 yr deal, only buying up RFA years.  With a Qualifying Offer of 7.5M required for the 4th year.

We should expect $ per point to rise comparatively as point totals increase because that's the way hockey players are valued. Expecting it to be consistent would be like thinking Edmonton would consider trading McDavid for three different 35 point a year players.

10
NHL Transactions / Re: Brock Boeser re-signs 3 years x 5.875M AAV
« on: Yesterday at 09:48:18 AM »

It's actually pronounced Throatwarbler Mangrove.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs to announce captain
« on: Yesterday at 09:42:55 AM »
It's Matthews' birthday today.... do the Leafs have a gift planned?

That would be cool, except I don't think he's playing in the exhibition game tonight.  Would be a shame to announce him captain and he's not even on the ice.

I don't really expect the Leafs to make the announcement a big thing.

Or if they do it'll be via televised news conference. I don't think him skating tonight would matter.

12
NHL Transactions / Re: Brock Boeser re-signs 3 years x 5.875M AAV
« on: Yesterday at 09:34:41 AM »
I never know how to say his name right...is it Beezer, or Beyzer...Bezer?

I like that none of your guesses figure on the second letter of his name being pronounced or it being pronounced as read.

13
NHL Transactions / Re: Brock Boeser re-signs 3 years x 5.875M AAV
« on: Yesterday at 09:33:22 AM »
Rantanen and Point are the closest talent comparable to Marner, I'm interested to see where they come in at.

They're certainly the closest in terms of raw production. With Point it seems pretty safe to assume that he'll take a similar discount for the tax rate as other Lightning guys and Rantanen I think will be hamstrung by the lack of other big deals on the Avs.

14
NHL Transactions / Re: Brock Boeser re-signs 3 years x 5.875M AAV
« on: Yesterday at 07:13:27 AM »

% of the cap per point scored(19-20) on their new deals:

Boeser: .129
Konecny: .138
Marner: .142

Right now the narrative that Dubas got taken to the cleaners is not holding up great.

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Marner signs 6 year, $10.893mil AAV contract
« on: September 15, 2019, 05:21:01 PM »
Well, Rantanen seems like the closest comparable to Marner that one can come up with. Letís see what he signs for.

I think that one may be the most misleading. I think Rantanen is very good but we've never really seen him produce much away from one of the best offensive lines in hockey. As much as I like Tavares, he isn't what Mackinnon's been the last few years and Landeskog vs. Hyman is not much of a comparison. Throw in a ton more PP time and I think it's a bit of a superficial similarity.

Point is potentially more valuable. I know there is the tax thing, but the thing is that Tampa canít give him a no-trade clause so he canít really guarantee a persistent tax advantage. (Also, why do they get a tax discount but Toronto gets no discount when dispensing signing bonuses? One could compute the real monetary benefit and it would be big.)

Because other teams, including Tampa, also give out a lot of money in bonuses. 60 of Stamkos' 68 million is in signing bonuses and Kucherov got 44 million in bonuses. Aho's deal was 38 million in bonuses vs. 3 in salary.

Toronto front loads more money but I think the financial advantages there are overstated(especially for young players making their first big money).

Like I just fed some rough numbers into a calculator on it and the difference between Marner's deal as structured if he invests every cent and just getting 11 million a year and doing the same works out to about 1.6 million total over 6 years with a 6% ROI.

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