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Messages - mr grieves

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1
Marleau will only be leaving the Leafs before the end of his contract if he wants to.

And anyway, I'm not sure why all the complaining.  We knew from the get-go that his cap hit wasn't going to be justified by his points production.  They overpaid him to come in and be a mentor, which by all accounts he's done superbly, and hopefully put up a decent number of points.  He'll probably end up with 20/40 at the end of the season.  He won't be a defensive black hole.

Would it be nice if he were getting paid 4 instead of 6?  Of course, but then he never would have left SJ for that number.

I think Marleau is doing just fine, in the big scheme of things.

Yep. And if the Leafs don't win a Cup this season, the already slim chance of him wanting to leave the Leafs becomes zero.

If you get rid of Zaitsev and Brown, that opens up the same amount of cap dollars.

I really do like this trend of describing the idea that a guy who's turning 40 before next season and has already made 90+ million dollars may consider retiring as some sort of crazy nonsense fantasy.

I thought the 35+ contract means we'd see no cap savings in the event of a retirement and the only way we clear his contract from the cap is by moving him to another team or to LTIR?

Anyhow, I doubt he's willingly leaving the roster until he has his Cup.

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Zach Hyman
« on: Yesterday at 04:25:47 PM »
Good timing.

Feels like, over the last 2 years, the Leafs settle into some sorta funk around now. December and January have been months when the team's play slides, experimentation or a shake up of some kind is called for, and Babcock is slow to react.

It's two losses after a 5 game winning streak. I am not sure we can call this a funk just yet.

They played poorly in a few of those 5 games.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Zach Hyman
« on: December 09, 2018, 02:34:24 PM »
Good timing.

Feels like, over the last 2 years, the Leafs settle into some sorta funk around now. December and January have been months when the team's play slides, experimentation or a shake up of some kind is called for, and Babcock is slow to react.

4
Marleau will only be leaving the Leafs before the end of his contract if he wants to.

And anyway, I'm not sure why all the complaining.  We knew from the get-go that his cap hit wasn't going to be justified by his points production.  They overpaid him to come in and be a mentor, which by all accounts he's done superbly, and hopefully put up a decent number of points.  He'll probably end up with 20/40 at the end of the season.  He won't be a defensive black hole.

Would it be nice if he were getting paid 4 instead of 6?  Of course, but then he never would have left SJ for that number.

I think Marleau is doing just fine, in the big scheme of things.

Yep. And if the Leafs don't win a Cup this season, the already slim chance of him wanting to leave the Leafs becomes zero.

If you get rid of Zaitsev and Brown, that opens up the same amount of cap dollars.

5
So who comes out of the line-up: Ennis or Leivo?

Brown.

But probably Leivo.

Leivo probably has more offense than Brown but I think Brown will always give a better effort than Leivo.  Like last night for example, it was Brown's hustle that set up the winning goal, no denying that.

It's less obvious than streaking into the offensive zone, but Leivo's a lot better on the forecheck and cycle. He doesn't get the puck in, but he keeps it there. That certainly takes "effort" and "hustle." And, like you say and as scoring chances and shot generation numbers confirm, he's got more offense than Brown.

6
So who comes out of the line-up: Ennis or Leivo?

Brown.

But probably Leivo.

7
I know people are probably not that into talking about another contract negotiation but last night they were talking about the Leafs apparently having some optimism that Gardiner could get re-signed.

Yeah that intrigued me too. If they can get Gardiner signed for anything under $6mil I think they have to find a way to make that fit. If it's not moving Marleau (which I don't think happens unless they win the Cup this season or if they're able to pull an Orpik situation) then trading Zaitsev+Brown should make enough room too. Then when Marleau's contract comes off the books we'll have some extra money to play around with.

I love Brown and all, but if he's the difference between signing Gardiner to something nice and reasonable, well then I'll help him pack his bags.

Yeah, Brown's loveable.... but I think I could learn to love Trevor Moore or Mason Marchment or Pierre Engvall or any other Marlie who can do 80-90% of what Brown does for 30-40% of the salary.

I think they'd still have to find a taker for Zaitsev too.

8
LOL @ Brian Burke... says it's crazy to pay this kind of money for the 6th best player on the team (with regards to Nylander).
Uh, where I'm sitting, I'm pretty happy having 6 superstars/elites on my team.  It's a good problem to have.

6th? I thought 5th.

Matthews, Tavares, Reilly, Marner, Nylander, Gardiner, Kadri...

The scary part isn't that he's the 5th or 6th best player and making $7m but that there's only one defenseman ahead of him and the Leafs probably can't afford to keep the defenseman just behind him.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« on: December 01, 2018, 07:06:46 PM »
Oh and forgot this, once you see what Marner will get (even with the home discount), this deal will look like a steal.  Matthews will be in for 12-13 for sure.

Put the cap at $84m next year.
Marleau's 6.25 = 7.4%
Willy N's 6.69 =    8%
Tavares's 11m = 13.1%
Marner's 9.5m* = 11.3%
Auston's 12.5m = 14.9%

That's almost 55% of the cap tied up in 5 forwards, one of whom isn't really a good top 6 option anymore...

 

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« on: December 01, 2018, 07:01:15 PM »
Without knowing what the offers were, and when they were made, it is impossible to tell.  If the rumors are right (and I have no idea whether they are) then if Dubas had signed him in in July, he would have paid 8-8.5/year so by waiting, he saved 1-1.5.

We can't know the offers, but that might be for the best, because it leaves us with the numbers that are most relevant to assessing what the "savings" are. It is not, I submit, the distance between the player's original ask and what he signs for, but the distance between the number he signs for and the number that averages the cap hits of similar players, signing under similar conditions, and adjusts them for cap inflation.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« on: December 01, 2018, 06:19:04 PM »
This is essentianlly a 6 year contract at 7M in terms of how much money he takes home.

He takes home 41.83M over the life of the contract and the cap hit in years 2-6 reflect this.

There is no "cap savings" by signing late.

If he had signed this contract in July, I would've thought it's a really fair deal for Nylander. It's what his comprables signed for, inflated with the cap. I would've been a bit disappointed that Dubas didn't squeeze him to get an AAV that'd allow us a chance of keeping Gardiner or adding.

Four months on, and I find myself focusing more on that disappointment. Why drag this to deadline if we're ending up right where other similar contracts indicate it should've been in the first place? Was it Nylander's side that was being unreasonable? Or the Leafs? -- My guess, informed only by media reports that might not be right, is that it was the Leafs that were trying to get to beat the market. We've got a good player on a perfectly fine contract and no extra room to keep the team more generally competitive -- Big Three 1, Boy Genius GM 0.

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« on: December 01, 2018, 05:26:05 PM »
Well this and the above just proved that sitting out works. Willy got a great contract for himself.

Yeah, this is a good deal for him. I think in the context I posted about earlier re: comparing him to Ehlers it's pretty fair. It still seems stupid that it took this long to get here but I guess that'll have something for everyone.

Yep. Nylander... wins. Of course we don't know the initial offers of either side, and it seems probable that Nylander's side probably moved the most -- he asked for $8-8.5m and Dubas was pushing $6-6.5m -- but Dubas's goal was to get Nylander under contract for below 'market' or comparable value. And this is his value, pretty much right on the nose.

Good for Willy.

13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: December 01, 2018, 01:19:55 PM »
If he doesn't sign, the Leafs have about $12 million in cap space left to make deals with at the trade deadline. They could potentially bring in d-man and a forward for a cup run this year, if making a deal for Nylander or other assets. If it was a deal for other assets. The Leafs could potentially trade Nylander later to replace those lost assets. So Nylander not signing today, doesn't mean they get nothing for a cup run this year - they get $12 million in cap space to do something.

If Nylander under contract for a long term at his number isn't happening and a medium/bridge term at the Leafs number isn't in the cards, their best move, IMO, would be to put most of that $12 toward Nylander on a one-year deal and kick the can down the road. The base salary could be set at a tolerable starting point for a future negotiation ($6.5-6.75m?) and the balance paid out as a nice bonus to smooth over hard feelings.

Nylander would get on the team, which is what'll have the biggest possible impact on their chances this season... which is an important consideration, since the defense is going to be worse next season and this might be their best chance for the next couple years.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 29, 2018, 10:31:49 PM »
 ???


15
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: The Donald
« on: November 06, 2018, 05:30:47 PM »
There's really no two ways about it any more. America is now a country with one political party trying to win elections and another political party trying to prevent elections.

Check in on NC sometime. They've even got a plan for if those elections do happen.

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