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Messages - mr grieves

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Auston Matthews
« on: September 26, 2019, 09:16:10 PM »
You should support teammates, friends and family. Last I heard Matthews hasn't been found guilty yet. Let's see how this plays out before trying to figure out what he was thinking and why he did what he allegedly did.

2. Auston's parents knew. Not only did a sober Auston not come clean with the Leafs, but his parents did not advise him to come clean. Telling the Leafs the next morning could very likely have resulted in this all going away without a charge. We will never know. But regardless, drunken immaturity is one thing. The cold light of day immaturity is another.

These are the two things I have trouble squaring.

Matthews is a valued member of the team and organization, so they certainly ought to support Matthews as long as his case is pending and, even if he's found guilty, people's communities ought to help them rehabilitate.

But that requires trust and imposes some responsibilities on Matthews. That he didn't feel it was any of the team's business, knowing (or really should knowing) that this would become public and cause all sorts of problems for his colleagues, is a huge problem. Maybe, as someone said above, his dad told him it wasn't serious, that he shouldn't tell the team. But that's not really making the case for his captaincy!

2
NHL Transactions / Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« on: September 25, 2019, 04:19:37 PM »
Well, the model is probably saying that historically, there have been other factors that have gone into determining what a player gets paid.  Points aren't the only one.  My guess is that it is weighing goals more heavily than you are.

I'm not saying points are the only one. I'm saying points are a pretty solid indicator of performance to consider and I think you'd have to come up with a pretty good explanation why Marner, who scored more goals than Konecny, would sign for much, much less of the cap per point than he did.

I would guess such an explanation would run something like: "because points aren't chits you accumulate and trade in when your contract's up for fractions of a percent of the cap? that's not how contract values are actually determined?"

3
NHL Transactions / Re: Tkachuk signs bridge deal [3 years, $7mil AAV]
« on: September 25, 2019, 11:51:44 AM »
Another RFA that wasn't overpaid by over $2 million per season. Good for Calgary.

Its funny you say that because last season they would have been considered overpays.  Remember, Nylander got a similar cap hit for SIX years, not THREE.

The market was reset... long-term deals aren't quite as long and they're higher, bridges are longer and more expensive. I'd rather have Marner and an extra $4M for the next three seasons.

4
NHL Transactions / Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
« on: September 23, 2019, 03:47:26 PM »
It is also a three-year bridge and, at 8.3% of the cap, is probably the richest contract of that sort in the league.

Except that feeds into what I'm saying. How many 80 or 90+ point players looking to sign their second deals signed three year bridges?

To the best of my off-hand knowledge there's just Eric Staal, who got 2% more of the cap than Point in the Cap's first real off-season.

Right. It's rare. Point's deal is a re-setting of the RFA market that I thought we might see with Marner -- bridges at a higher AAV/C.H.% than we've seen before, presumably setting the player up for another bump in a few years. We'll have to wait and see how it works out for Tampa in the long term.

For the time being, the richer bridge increases the near-term competitiveness of their roster. They can afford a valuable depth piece that the Leafs cannot.

5
NHL Transactions / Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
« on: September 23, 2019, 03:25:56 PM »
But it's not just deals like Eichel and Draisaitl or a bunch of other historical comparisons I could make(Kessel's 2nd deal was .016 cap % per point higher than Marner, RNH's was .048!). Point's deal has him paid, per point, less than Andreas Johnsson. It's just completely unprecedented.

It is also a three-year bridge and, at 8.3% of the cap, is probably the richest contract of that sort in the league. 

I think your C.H.% ÷ previous season's points formula overlooks the extent to which term plays into the contracts that are eventually signed. It's not crazy to me that you'd only get into that .125 to .175 range if you're looking at long-term deal and that bridges come in at lower percent-per-point values.

6
NHL Transactions / Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
« on: September 23, 2019, 03:00:37 PM »

Eichel, as a comparable, for instance would be at .208 of the cap per point scored in the year before he signed or roughly 40% higher than Marner. Even if you pro-rate Eichel that year to 82 games and 78 points he's still at .170.

But, as you note, there's a lot of ways to parse things. Eichel is Buffalo's franchise 1C. He was drafted just behind the greatest player of his generation. He wasn't playing with talent in Tavares's league. He was injured and production takes a hit even when one's back. And so on.

7
NHL Transactions / Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
« on: September 23, 2019, 02:26:18 PM »
Is it not safer to say both Marner and Point are outliers here?

No, because I don't think Marner really is one. Is he on the higher side of things? Sure. But is his deal wildly out of whack with, say, the Draisaitl deal in terms of AAV? I don't think so.

I did a point per % of the cap thing in the Boeser thread and, for instance, Draisaitl got .147 of the cap for every point he scored in the final year of his ELC. Marner got .142.

On a deal that bought up an extra 2 UFA years... Eichel's another in Marner's C.H.% range, but, again, on a deal that runs to 8 years. Some of recent 4-to-5-year deals for high-end players leaving their ELCs (Larkin, Meier, Guentzel), but most are in the 7% range, with Aho in the 10% range. One extra year, and the Leafs are paying as if they've bought up three more?   

I don't know. I get it's very attractive and awfully easy to say we oughtn't compare Point to Marner to draw conclusions about the current RFA market, but, looking beyond Tampa, I can't find a sample of RFA deals where Marner's isn't a notable outlier.

8
NHL Transactions / Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
« on: September 23, 2019, 02:00:58 PM »
Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

How does this make the Eichel or Aho deals look?

This deal is the outlier right now. Not Marner. I mean, Point outscored Boeser by like 40 points and got a million more than he did.

Is it not safer to say both Marner and Point are outliers here? Marner in a player-friendly direction, Point in a team-friendly one. We're still waiting on a few others have others, but it looks like the market is generally delivering contracts somewhere between the two.

9
NHL Transactions / Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
« on: September 23, 2019, 01:06:03 PM »
That long back and forth between Jonas and Mirtle, echoed sometimes here, is getting its answer: looks less and less likely that Marner/Leafs did, in fact, reset the high-end RFA market. Implications of that... not great!

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Marner signs 6 year, $10.893mil AAV contract
« on: September 14, 2019, 02:29:17 PM »
How are Bergeron and Marchand compatibles? They are 34 and 31 and signed their contracts years ago.

Bergeron and Marchand occupy the 1F and 2F slots on the Bruins' roster, just as Matthews and Tavares do on the Leafs' roster.

The contracts and players are not comparable, for the reason you note and others besides, but if we're comparing how the Leafs roster, as a thing that allocates cap % to different slots in the lineup, measures up against that of Bruins or any other team, they're comparable. They're just slots you fill with C.H.%.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Marner signs 6 year, $10.893mil AAV contract
« on: September 14, 2019, 01:28:46 PM »
The salary structure the Leafs have now got is not one that's ever been seen in the Stanley Cup Finals. That's concerning.
Not going to argue the numbers, but the doesn't the makeup of the team sort of resemble the 16/17 penguins stanley cup teams? High quality top forwards, one or two top defencemen, a good goalie, and a mishmash of spare parts for the bottom part of the lineup?

Yes, that'd be the model the Leafs are aiming at. But, with their high-quality top forwards under big contracts, the Penguins didn't win until they made some moves for secondary talent and quality depth -- and they could only do that after a couple years passed and the cap rose to push the C.H.% of their top talent down, which gave them the space to add.

Dom at the Athletic looks at top-4 players' cumulative cap hits in his recent piece. A bit of that:

Quote
Few teams might have what the team has up front, but no other team is paying for it the way Toronto is... The Bruins aren’t spending 50 percent on Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy... You could go on and on throughout the league. The four highest-paid contracts take up 37 percent of a team’s cap hit on average, thanks to many other stars taking much friendlier deals. The Leafs’ 49.7 percent is 5 percentage points higher than the next-highest team: Tampa Bay’s 44.7 percent.

Link: https://theathletic.com/1210323/2019/09/14/can-the-leafs-win-with-their-current-cap-structure-after-signing-mitch-marner/

It's just a snapshot of this coming season, and there's no longitudinal analysis of teams that've made the Finals vs. those that've fallen short. But I think it's safe to conclude, since the Leafs are in uncharted territory, no team that's made the Final has had the Leaf's current cap structure.

Dom's bottom line is a "wait and see" -- a lot hinges on whether Marner did, in fact, re-set the market. If not, they're at a competitive disadvantage for the time being, even if they do avoid the bloated middle class and get a lot out of low-end contracts.

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Marner signs 6 year, $10.893mil AAV contract
« on: September 14, 2019, 12:10:25 PM »
The salary structure the Leafs have now got is not one that's ever been seen in the Stanley Cup Finals. That's concerning.
Not going to argue the numbers, but the doesn't the makeup of the team sort of resemble the 16/17 penguins stanley cup teams? High quality top forwards, one or two top defencemen, a good goalie, and a mishmash of spare parts for the bottom part of the lineup?

Yes, that'd be the model the Leafs are aiming at. But, with their high-quality top forwards under big contracts, the Penguins didn't win until they made some moves for secondary talent and quality depth -- and they could only do that after a couple years passed and the cap rose to push the C.H.% of their top talent down, which gave them the space to add.



13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Marner signs 6 year, $10.893mil AAV contract
« on: September 14, 2019, 11:12:13 AM »
It’s not a black and white kind of thing in terms of making or breaking the club but it does put them at a competitive disadvantage against Tampa.  Tampa gets to add a player like MacDonough vs a replacement-level guy on the leafs with their savings on Stamkos/Kucherov vs Matthews/Marner.  At least until that Vasilevsky contract kicks in.

That's the bottom line here, for me.

However one views Marner's contract in isolation or versus comparables, there's a team-wide allocation of cap dollars here. The salary structure the Leafs have now got is not one that's ever been seen in the Stanley Cup Finals. That's concerning.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Marner signs 6 year, $10.893mil AAV contract
« on: September 13, 2019, 08:46:45 PM »
Offense for the next decade goes through the Four Horsemen. 40 million, half the cap.


Four players at 50% of the cap.

I really like this team's Cup chances... in 3 or so years, under an $88-90M cap.

Till then... oh well.

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
« on: September 13, 2019, 12:52:13 PM »
I think the issue here is Marner doesn't want to play second fiddle and Matthews will always be the guy. The star, the guy in the spotlight and the face of the franchise.

Until opening day passes, it's hard to say that this isn't just his agent doing what he's supposed to do--wait for the moment where the team's need and the available dollars peak before signing--but I thought Jeffler's read of the situation was reasonable and could be what's going on. Maybe he does want to be "the guy." But that's just not going to happen on a team with two first overall picks, one of whom is a natural goal scorer the likes of which the league hasn't seen since Ovechkin arrived and, to boot, a center.

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