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Messages - LuncheonMeat

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: November 16, 2018, 08:43:37 PM »
Happened to TBay. At what point does more money matter? Like at the end of your career if you've made $50million does your life really materially change much if you make $60million or $70million? At what point do you go I'm ok with $50million if it means this staff keeps this core together long term and we make a run for it every year.

I mean, if you were negotiating your salary at work, and at the end of your career you could earn 1 million or 1.1 million would you not be looking for that 1.1 million? If you have 30 years of work, that extra $100k would only work out to an extra $3,333 a year. Not a big deal...per year.

I don't think we can fault anyone for trying to get what they think they are worth. It's their decision to not make anything if the company decides not to pay them.
I definitely hear you, and in my own way I truly respect Nylander for trying to stick it to "the Man", but really this is a fruitless fight.  Nylander is only hurting himself and it's going to earn him a ticket out of town.
You think he's sticking it to the man?

How much is he really hurting himself in this case.

I'm going to guess that the only option for Nylander to earn over $5 million dollars a year is to play hockey, and he isn't doing that right now.

Sure. I meant more in the long run though. I don't know how much this really hurts him. I suppose it could go either way.

The only option for me to make what I make is to do what I do.....Doesn't mean I'm going to settle for less than what I'm worth.

But what if your only option is to settle for less than what you think you're worth? What if there's no one willing to pay you more?

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Matthews placed on IR
« on: October 31, 2018, 11:23:09 PM »
Isn't having the higher potential of injury exactly what the word prone means?

likely to or liable to suffer from, do, or experience something, typically something regrettable or unwelcome.

Risk and tendency are two different things.

I'm not sure what you mean. The definition doesn't say anything about tendency. Just that you're "likely to"

Isn't "highly probable" and "likely or liable" just about the same thing.

If I'm doing something while driving that makes it more probable that I crash, so much so that every 6 months or so, I take out a street sign does that not make me more prone to crashing my car?

This is maybe slicing things a little too finely in terms of semantics, but to me, prone refers to propensity, or an inherent attribute or characteristic that leaves the person or object susceptible to the unwelcome outcome.

An example that spells it out in my mind nicely would be the oxidation of steels.

A carbon steel is prone to rusting, while a stainless steel is resistant to rusting. Dunk a stainless steel into salt water or a strongish acid for a prolonged period of time and the probability of it rusting approaches 100% (due to opportunity). I don't think anyone would say the stainless steel is prone to rusting, but frequent exposure to a particular circumstance can cause it.

Translating this back to hockey:
Carbon Steel: Joffrey Lupul
Stainless Steel (perhaps): Auston Matthews

Salt Water Immersion Bath: Having the puck a lot, cutting into the slot, focusing on scoring.

The only injuries Matthews has suffered thus far are from unexpected body contact when he's caught in an awkward angle that would pretty much injure anybody in that position, but he is quite often in possession of the puck and contorting his body into certain angles to control or shoot the puck.

Probability (likelihood) = Propensity x Opportunity

I liked my explanation better.  :P

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Matthews placed on IR
« on: October 30, 2018, 06:35:22 PM »
Is that your medical opinion?? LOL
You don't think if scored 50 or won the Heart trophy it would make a difference? I do.

I tend to agree, it would be nice in negotiations when you can throw that in instead of "hey, look at my PPG while I wasn't injured".

But ultimately, I don't think it'll make a great deal of difference. If he wants McDavid money, he'll get it.
I think it depends on how well Matthews recovers and comes back from this.  He could start getting the reputation of being injury prone.  And that would absolutely lower his value in terms of a contract.  The team will know this via their medical people. For this to have happened to Matthews already three times at such a young age tells me that he is somehow physically prone to these types of injuries.

Is this your official medical opinion Dr. Sickbeast?

He's had a concussion and 2 (different shoulder) injuries.  I'd say both were a result of bad luck about how he got hit while it the process of shooting and doesn't necessarily mean he's more prone to these injuries than anyone else.  Maybe he puts himself into situations where he can get hit more often as opposed to a more perimeter player so the more he's hit the higher chance of something happening.  That said, there's no surgery required, and he's 21, I'm sure he can recover fully and carry on.

You don't need a medical opinion to see that getting body checked more often during a game could give you a higher potential of getting injured.  It doesn't necessarily mean you're more prone to injuries.

Isn't having the higher potential of injury exactly what the word prone means?

likely to or liable to suffer from, do, or experience something, typically something regrettable or unwelcome.

Risk and tendency are two different things.

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Matthews placed on IR
« on: October 29, 2018, 01:50:18 PM »
I know that wasn't your point i just addressed, but it's a frustrating situation that has less frustrating realities than the ones we're currently faced with, namely, is Matthews injury prone or just not getting the Gretzky/Crosby treatment because he's a Leaf?

I have a hard time thinking anybody would have came away from that exact hit unscathed. Just two big bodies colliding and Trouba got him in the worst spot at the worst angle. Freeze it right at the point of contact and you could tell right away his shoulder probably separated or something. If I was gonna say thing, I'd say Matthews could have braced for the hit a little better. Not sure he even saw Trouba coming.

I'm with you, I don't think he saw Trouba coming.

The path of least resistance for shoulder dislocation is forward and down. Matthews was in the process of shooting - dropping his left shoulder and moving it forward with acceleration. That already puts him in a compromised position. I think that hit is moving along the same vector (driving his shoulder forward and down) and adds a lot more force to the equation.

I think it's just bad timing on Matthews' part, unfortunately, that led to his current injury. Given the angle of the hit, being in a compromised position, and being unaware/unable to protect himself were the biggest factors. I don't think 'injury prone' plays into this at all. And I think you're right, not may would have come away from that hit unscathed.

Matthews with 8 points in 3 games.  Is that good?
Hope he stays healthy. Point a game for sure this season if not better

If healthy, I say he will be knocking on the door of 100 points.

By next week.

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: John Tavares is a Maple Leaf
« on: July 16, 2018, 01:07:56 PM »
The best part of that letter was: 'I have a special connection with this franchise that you will never understand.'  ???

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: July 09, 2018, 06:41:42 PM »
The Leafs will raise the cap themselves by being awesome.

As ridiculous as that may sound there's truth to it. No question, the NHL makes more when the Leafs are competitive. If the cap is $80M and the cap is determined by 57% of league revenues then league revenues equals $80M / 57% x 31 teams = $4.35B? Can anyone confirm the league revenue figure?

So if the Leafs want to move the cap themselves by $6M to pay for a Nylander it would require $326M more in revenues [(6M x 31 teams)/57%].

If you want to raise the cap, I would suggest perhaps adding an expansion team, and then have it be really successful immediately. And then maybe add another in a couple of years.

General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Tavares
« on: July 01, 2018, 12:22:00 PM »
Tavares to sign with the Leafs??? Say it ain't so!!!

I really just posted this to see my sig.  :P

General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Tavares
« on: June 29, 2018, 06:58:00 PM »
I don’t get this ‘getting harassed in the streets’ mentality. And whatever restaurants they go to I sure as hell cant afford.

Well, sure, but I don't think anyone was accusing you of harassing these guys. But they do go out into the world. And the most famous guys on the Leafs are pretty recognizable. Especially if, as is frequently mentioned, they're going to start doing a lot of commercial work to capitalize on the fame.

That said, I don't think it's really an issue of being harassed on the streets. To be honest I'm not really sure who said that was a thing.

When I lived in Portland (OR) my wife and I had dinner one night 2 tables over from Robert Redford. Not a single person approached the table in the couple of hours we were there. Unless you're in LA - where people call their PR people to let them know where they'll be, rather than attempt to be anonymous - I'm not sure celebrity mugging is much of a thing.

General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Tavares
« on: June 28, 2018, 09:16:16 PM »
Props to RedLeaf for being way ahead of this one all the way back in 2014:

I don't know if it merits its own thread or not, but according to James Mirtle (@mirtle) via Twitter:

Hearing the Leafs will add Wes Clark to their hockey ops team. He's currently director of player development for the Soo Greyhounds.

Clark has worked training elite hockey players for a long time, including John Tavares. Will likely help Leafs develop their picks.

Here's some links on him:

I am honestly surprised that it took this long.

Can his friendship with Tavares help to lure John to Toronto? Wishful thinking, huh?

I think I'm more impressed with you finding that quote. No offense, RedLeaf.  :P

Why the eggplant emoji?

Its replaced the banana as the go to Phallic emoji.

I thought it was maybe a True Romance reference.

Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Marlies' Playoff Games
« on: May 25, 2018, 09:21:44 PM »
What are the chances Sparks is our backup next season? I just can't figure out whether he's for real, or whether he's a AHL lifer sort of guy. My heart tells me AHL lifer, but he's certainly been tearing up the AHL.

I honestly think the whole thing with Dubas is either going to go really well or else really badly. It's a real trial by fire for him. He's either going to sink or swim. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic personally. His stat knowledge is impressive. But there is something to be said for Lou's years of experience running a team. Things like trades and negotiations worry me somewhat with Dubas. We'll see. I was not happy with what Lou did at the end of this season. He should have stocked assets.

It's got to be either one or the other.  Unless the Leafs are just mediocre, which I suppose will be viewed as "really bad".  The problem is, especially with the draft strategy, you need a bit of time and distance to appreciate picks made outside the first round.  You can see that from people tying to evaluate Hunter's draft record.  Outside of the first round picks (and Dermott in round 2), we haven't seen any breakthroughs on the players that Hunter decided on.  Does that mean he did a piss poor job in drafting?  For now it appears that way, but  maybe a few of the players picked later make contributions next season or the year after and we look back and realize Hunter actually did a fairly good job.  The same will apply to Dubas.  People will want to see changes right away, but often times it doesn't work that fast. 

I guess the immediate changes he could make to improve the team for next season is the subtraction of guys like Martin, Komarov, Polak and the Leafs promote from within to give some speedy Marlies a shot.  It'll be interesting to see if he pulls off any signing or trades for players we might not expect who are currently undervalued by the NHL.

The market is going to want to see results fast.  This team had 105 points this season, but lost in round 1.  That's not going to cut it for this upcoming season.  If the team doesn't progress past round 1 again, it'll be viewed as a huge failure and the stories will begin that Dubas didn't do enough to improve the Leafs.  Man he's got a tough job.
The big question is, how are they going to replace JVR's 40 goals? Not to mention Bozak.

It's a matter of scoring more by committee.  Instead of one player getting 36 goals (JVR), let's say Matthews and Nylander each get more PP time and they score 7-8 goals each more than they would have otherwise. 

Matthews +8
Nylander +7
15 extra goals

Then you hope that guys like Johnsson and Kapanen can get 10-15 each?
Johnsson + 13
Kapanen + 12
25 extra goals

Martin and Komarov only combined for 10 goals on the season, replace them with guys that might score 8-10 each, and you have an additional 16-20 goals.

The math can add up with better players on each line.

I'm not so sure they need to replace all of JVR's goals. A 20-goal scorer is just fine if it's someone who is less of a defensive liability.

Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Lou Will Not Return
« on: May 22, 2018, 10:30:45 PM »
So I have come to the conclusion that this is a ruthless forum. You guys like arguing and debating endlessly. The place is largely unmoderated. I'm not used to it. But I will try to stay and adapt. We'll see.

Well, you got part of it right, at least.

With respect to being unmoderated, I'd  imagine it's a rare thread that Carlton (to name one individual) hasn't read and taken appropriate action when needed. And ruthless? I'm not seeing it.

Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Marlies' Playoff Games
« on: May 10, 2018, 08:02:34 PM »
Alex Lyon stops 94-95 shots in this game (and LOSES!!!!).  To bad he is property of Phili


The guy that stopped 94 of 95 won, the other dude stopped 51 of 53 and lost.
And that's why I was wondering why LuncheonMeat put loses in there.


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