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Messages - Bender

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1
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: Yesterday at 07:34:20 PM »
As long as the hospitals don't get swamped with new admissions I think they will just ride it out.

This is one of the things that is getting left out of the discussion too much.  Shutting things down wasn't about preventing COVID cases.  It was from preventing overrun ICUs.  Having an uptick in cases if they are primarily mild isn't going to be the limiting factor on whether things get shut back down.  Besides we are still on the early wave of seeing if opening things back up causes a problem.  It's going to be next weekend and the week after that that will be a much better indicator of whether we are heading for another problem.
Are they not to some extent one and the same? To prevent ICU admissions wouldn't you also have to prevent cases in the first place?

I also don't see things backsliding into lockdown unless ICUs start to fill up but that doesn't seem like an elegant solution since ICU admissions and death are lagging indicators.

2
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: Yesterday at 07:23:34 PM »

You know, over in the thread about the NHL's return someone made the case that no reasonable person could ever be surprised by people who were primarily driven by a profit-motive caring more for that profit than for health and safety.

So, you know, it is a bit strange to see so many headlines in the newspaper about just how shocked, shocked, our Premier is that people running care homes for the elderly in the interest of making money cut corners and jeopardized safety in the interest of their own profitability.

It's almost like the market-based economy doesn't handle important social dynamics well. Whoda thunk it?

I'm not surprised because this is generally what society does but this isn't a new problem with our nursing homes.  Some of them are absolutely great.  Others are abysmal.  From my limited experience doing some coverage work for them, more often seeing their patients on ER visits, we all know the ones that are good and which ones are garbage.  Skills have been downgraded.  Far too many buildings are going to fail accessibility and code standards come 2024.  Every year when dozens of residents die from the flu or a norovirus outbreak noone bats an eye. 

Big changes need to happen to our nursing home system.  The problem is that requires a considerably infrastructure investment and that will come at the cost of other health care expenses unless society as a whole embraces big tax increases.
This is going to sound a bit harsh, but imo boomers, probably the largest and most influential cohort up to now, know their time is coming after this exposed how bad things have become and they don't want their kids do to them what they've done to their parents. If it's not accepted by boomers then they're accepting a bad future that they're already witnessing in real time.

3
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: Yesterday at 07:18:39 PM »
Big changes need to happen to our nursing home system.  The problem is that requires a considerably infrastructure investment and that will come at the cost of other health care expenses unless society as a whole embraces big tax increases.

I don't think there's a real choice there. Because realistically the public has three options:

1) Leave things as they are
2) Embrace some sort of spending increase to fund a public system
3) Maintain a private system but have enough enforceable regulations so as to raise standards to acceptable levels

I guess a fourth would be to divert money away from other aspects of the health care system as you suggest but I think that's a non-starter. Assuming #1 isn't really an option, #3 would almost certainly mean much higher costs at the point of use because higher standards cost money(as does enforcement). So people would be paying for increases regardless, the question is just whether or not you want to socialize those costs and I think our health care system generally tells us it's better to do that than not. At least with the right sort of tax increases, a higher chunk of the burden can fall on the wealthy and corporate profits.

Number three is precisely why we are here right now.  Before Ford the Liberals weren't willing to hire more regulators to do inspections.  The Ford government just cut them back further.  We have chronically underpaid HCW in the nursing homes so they don't want to work there and can easily get a job elsewhere because the environment is pretty toxic for employees.
Is it just about inspections? I mean the reports say that private care facilities are far worse than public in general and this was ushered in by Mike Harris from what I understand although I was too young at the time when he was running the show. It's kind of fishy to me that he's on the board for Chartwell imo.

And to some extent if these are organizations that should be of some repute why does it take inspections to ensure they do a baseline level of work? I.e. if the system was half decent shouldn't there be fewer findings in audits in the first place?

4
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: Yesterday at 07:10:24 PM »

A very good podcast with an interview with Dr. David Fisman, who I think Herman mentioned earlier, about why Ontario isn't handling the crisis very well:

https://thebigstorypodcast.ca/2020/05/27/what-is-ontario-doing-wrong-on-covid-19/
He's been a great listen. He also has some great zingers on twitter.

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nick Robertson signed to 3 yr ELC
« on: Yesterday at 01:35:10 PM »
Especially with Johnsson done for the (extended) year. Now if he gets COVID from this, considering his medical history, I will be suuuuuper pissed.

I still can't believe how bad his injury was. It seemed innocuous to me.

Would Nick have been eligible for call up under normal circumstances if his OHL season came to an end before the playoffs? 


6
Why you wouldn't just pick/shortlist the cities have that have shown to be handling the pandemic really well is just beyond me. Shockingly I do think Edmonton would be a good choice.

They do have a shortlist, with lots of factors to consider. Considering, right now, all they have agreement on is the format - nothing about dates, location, even whether it's for sure happening - narrowing down significantly or announcing the cities on it is premature. A lot can (and will) change by the time the NHL is approaching the "good to go" phase.

Yeah, considering that they were saying that the earliest they'd even start training camps is late June or early July so much could change by then that you'd need to have options in case things don't go according to plan.

Honestly, it wasn't that big an announcement. It was a format without a date or location and is still contingent on there not being a resurgence of the virus.
I guess that's true. I'm mainly shocked at Toronto being considered, and as a local, I really don't want us to be.

7

The games will be held in two cities which won't be announced for a while but Toronto is one of the cities being considered.
Why you wouldn't just pick/shortlist the cities have that have shown to be handling the pandemic really well is just beyond me. Shockingly I do think Edmonton would be a good choice.

8
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: May 26, 2020, 02:12:38 PM »
Does anyone personally know anybody that has it/had it?
A guy in his 50s in a different office from me had it, pulled through.

At more arm's length my uncle has a bunch of friends in New York City (a few I'm familiar with through Facebook) where a surprisingly large number had got it. I don't know the details to their experience, but they seem ok now.

Another of his friends passed away on a ventilator in Florida. Mid-60s, overweight with diabetes.

On a side note I wish we had a better handle on underlying conditions and also moved away from the stigma that underlying conditions are always the fault of the patient. I was born with some bizarro cough variant asthma type of thing where I almost automatically get bronchitis if I don't take an inhaler when I get sick, but I'm otherwise 100% normal and have a generally healthy active lifestyle. If I take an inhaler I'm usually fine, but there have been certain illnesses where the inhaler doesn't do much, and things can get a bit hairy.  I worry that I'm at risk even though I'm in my 30s because of a bad dice roll.

9
Whether the regular season is 48 or 82 games (actually I'm in favour for less games anyway) means less to me than at least some semblance of a normal 16 team playoff format where the final reg season standings are what they are.

And this isn't even asterisking a cup win in the event that hypothetically two of the losing team's players test positively for COVID and lose because of that or players subsequently die because of it after the Cup is awarded.

Forgive me for taking the Murphy's Law stance here, but I've seen enough of 2020 for this to be my default stance until proven otherwise. 

10
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: May 24, 2020, 10:11:47 PM »

I'm all for calling these people idiots, because they are, but I think this highlights a problem we're seeing in a lot of places. You can't partially open stuff without enforcement. You can't say "Beaches are open but only at 33% of regular capacity" without figuring out who gets to go and who doesn't. Because otherwise everyone is going to think they get to go to the beach that day.

And people can blame Toronto all they want but a lack of enforcement of guidelines has been plaguing the provincial response since the beginning.
Can't argue with any of that.


11
This is stupid. Not just the format, but the notion that they should play out the season at all.
Right. It's asterisk'd to hell and contingent on so many unknowables. Figure out the next season.

12
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: May 23, 2020, 07:18:17 PM »
This is bad...

13
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: May 23, 2020, 12:02:07 AM »
And I'm sorry, the uptick in cases has nothing to do with the retail stores opening Tuesday. Whether or not Ontario was ready is another discussion, but cases going up by 75 people isn't because stores opened 3 days ago.


That's true - we won't have those numbers for a couple weeks. However, Home Depot, Lowe's, Canadian Tire, etc. opened for shoppers right around two weeks ago, and the people testing positive now would have been infected right around then. Could be correlation without causation, but, it's not a good look.
All stores mentioned have never been closed in BC or the Interior to be specific, yet cases remain very low, perhaps this is because we never had a high curve to begin with.
I think cases in Washington were enough for BC Public Health to act swiftly to nip in the bud. Exponential growth shows once it gets out of hand it gets out of hand quickly. Now we have an R0 of 1.2 in Ontario so things aren't getting any better and our CMOH refuses to acknowledge increased R0 and instead said "Let's wait to see if this is a blip." How much time do we have to wait and see when epis are showing that we are no longer suppressing the virus as we were 2 weeks ago?

14
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: May 22, 2020, 11:58:56 PM »

People should keep in mind that part of the reasons why smaller towns/cities haven't been affected as badly is because there's been such a concerted effort to reduce even in-province travel. The more relaxed things get, the more likely people are to go to their cottages and such, the more likely things will spread outside of the problem areas.

As a lot of people smarter than me have said, if strict containment measures work then you'll get people questioning if they were necessary because they won't see the damage that was avoided.
Public Health's deliverable is the non-occurance of events!

15
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Coronavirus
« on: May 22, 2020, 11:55:21 PM »

 I live in the Elgin\St Thomas region with a population just short of 100,000. We currently have 2 active cases of Covid-19, one in the county and one in the city. There has not been an admission to the hospital since April 28th. We have only had 33 cases total and 4 deaths. Closing things down again will be a tough pill to swallow.


I feel like things would have to get REALLY bad for the government to roll back into a lock down. Or they would try to roll back in only the areas that are seeing an outbreak again. This will of course impact how soon we enter into stage 2 of the re-opening though.
There are epis calling for rolling lockdown. I.e. if Kingston for example sees no cases maybe it shouldn't be locked down? Although does that stop Toronto crazies from driving to Kingston and infecting people?

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