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Messages - princedpw

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1
Glad Willy signed though. They really needed another one-dimensional forward who vanishes when faced with adversity.

It is a little early for this.

2
Marner needs to shoot at the net one time.  He always passes no matter what.

He is actually tied for 42nd in shots on goal prior to this name.

3
Well can’t beat them last two games without some of their best players doesn’t bode well. Sound like a broken record but Dubas needs to address a couple areas on this team. Hopefully he will because team isn’t built to win in the playoffs. Keep making notes Mike that will help. Call a timeout and f’n let these guys have it.

What areas?  Better forwards?

4
Hyman was held at the line with no call.

I yelled at the tv.

5
I thought he couldn't be traded.

If he agrees, he can be traded.  I would assume that if he is on good terms with the leafs then if he no longer plans to play, he will allow his rights to be traded. But he could certainly disallow that if he chooses to.

6
The key to the game should be holding Pastrnak to less than a hat trick.

7
LTIR is the only way out of the Marleau contract but I doubt it happens. He will likely be taking up valuable cap space next year.

Not saying it is going to happen but if he decides he wants to retire, the leafs could trade him to another team first. They’d have to give up draft pick(s) as compensation or perhaps take on a lesser bad contract.

8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« on: December 07, 2018, 01:00:12 PM »
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?

Leafs would match anything non-insane for Matthews or Marner rather than let them walk so yes, if the goal was to further screw up the Leafs' cap situation that's the way to go.

I think an offer sheet to Mathews or Marner (if accepted and the leafs let him go) is a situation in which pretty much everyone loses — The player, the leafs and the other team.  The leafs lose cup contention but the player goes to a team likely to suck long term — it is hard to build a winner without any first round picks for the foreseeable future.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
« on: December 07, 2018, 12:56:02 PM »
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?

Leafs would match anything non-insane for Matthews or Marner rather than let them walk so yes, if the goal was to further screw up the Leafs' cap situation that's the way to go.

With Kapanen I could see a team (Carolina?) making an offer in the 5x.35 or 5x4 range that would be a bit on the high side but not terrible...one that the Leafs really can't match because they won't have the room.

The Leafs could see a lot of their really good support players become potential targets for offer sheets that they really can't match yet aren't gross overpayments by the poaching teams.

I agree that Kappy and Johnsson might be great offer sheet targets.

I posted another roster in the armchair GM thread. A difference was that it expects Matthews/Marner to come in at 11 and 8.5. Perhaps you think that is too cheap.

The star’s roster could be optimized though:

- Oz at 2.5 is too much for what he provides. I think our 3rd pairing D needs to be sub 1 million — a rookie like Sandin or a Marlie. So we can save 1.5 million there.  That allows us to pay Kappy 4 million.

- I would trade brown and put another rookie in his spot, saving another ~1+ million. That allows us to pay Johnsson ~2.5.

But yes, it is tight and they are still offer sheet targets.  Leafs get 1st + 3rd if cap gets a ~4.1 million offer from someone else.

We really need to dump Marleau to give us breathing room + a passable defense.

10
Hey, did people think Matthews looked a little shaky after the hit?

11
General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« on: December 06, 2018, 11:02:44 AM »
This is a great armchair GM job of demonstrating how next year's team might look:

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/182459

I think that is just about as accurate a job as one could do except it's a little too close to the cap.  To give more space, trading Brown is the thing to do IMHO.  We can't afford 2.1 million on the 4th line as much as he is a useful utility piece/PKer.  Bring in a rookie or UFA making 750K and then you've got the ~1 million space you need for when injuries strike and you need to bring someone up.

It's impossible to predict exactly what Matthews and Marner will but the guesses seem realistic to me (11.5 and 8.5).  Likewise, there is a lot of uncertainty around Kapanen and Johnsson.  With Kapanen, I think Dubas can hold the line.  If Kapanen tries to pull a Nylander, if I were Dubas, I'd just let him sit for the year.  On the other hand, if ever there was a time to use an offer sheet, I think Kapanen might be the perfect guy to target.  If July 1 rolls around and all three of Matthews, Marner and Kapanen aren't under contract then the cost uncertainty of what it will take to get Matthews and Marner under wraps might cause the Leafs to have to let go of Kapanen if forced into it by a well-timed offer sheet.  I think the compensation:

$2,029,660 - $4,059,322   1 Second Round Pick
$4,059,323 - $6,088,980   1 First Round Pick, 1 Third Round Pick

would be well worth it (certainly the 2nd round pick and perhaps the 1st and 3rd for a playoff team).

[Aside:  I'm not worried about Matthews or Marner offer sheets because it just doesn't seem possible to build a team when paying a guy a max salary (which is more-or-less what it would take to pry a Matthews, say, away from the Leafs and even then I bet they match) and also giving up your next 4 first round picks.  I just don't see how that can work.  Arizona won't come out on top by paying Matthews 15 million a year and also losing for the next decade which is what would happen.  And it wouldn't be any fun for Matthews either I'd bet.]

I also like this lineup because you can see that if we could get rid of Marleau then it seems there might barely be enough room to retain Gardiner.  I wouldn't be surprised if Gardiner could get $7 million on the UFA market but perhaps he would settle for Marleau's $6 with the Leafs.  I might prefer the right-handed version of Gardiner, but I don't know how to get that ...

12

Leafs don't have another back-to-back until Dec. 22/23 (when Detroit will be the 2nd game of the B2B) so this seems like good timing for a Sparks appearance.

Glad to see this.  One of my few remaining goals for the season is to get Andersson some rest.

I think I'd rather wind up 2nd or 3rd in the division with a rested Andersson for the playoffs than 1st and have him play 65 games this year.  Let's get the game count under 60 please.  (yeah, not gonna happen, eh?)

13
Mantha is out due to getting into his second career fight (defending a teammate) and breaking enough of his hand that it required surgery.

It being a home game, and Matthews still getting back up to speed, I'm thinking the lines will be:

Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen
Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Ennis - Lindholm - Brown
These are the exact lines I want to see. No Goat and no Kapanen or Johnsson on the 4th line. LW, RW and C distributed perfectly. I think Kadri/Kappi is a good duo. I know Bab's considers great pairs a line so Kadri/Kapi is an awesome third line.

I agree.  When Matthews was out, the Kadri-Kappy pairing was very effective.  Putting Kappy on his wrong side up with Matthews and Nylander won't make as much of a difference as putting him with Kadri to help with the transition plays.

I'm not sure it matters much if one flips Marleau and Johnsson.  Rock-Matthews-Nylander would probably be a good line. And I have a lot of confidence in Kadri-Kappy as a match-up duo.

I'd love to find a way to get Kadri up to 18 minutes of ice time though.  A shift or two a period of Kadri-Matthews-Nylander would always be fun.

14
It has been a fun few days. I hope the team’s next goal involves reducing Anderson’s games played over the season.

15
Matthews is unreal. Great play by Kappy

I was expecting Matthews to start the OT with Kapanen and I was a bit disappointed they went with Marleau. It’ll be Willy next time.

Soon it will be

Matthews-Nylander-Gards

Then

Marner-Tavares-Reilly

Then

Kadri-Kapanen-Dermott

That is nuts.

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