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Other Hockey News & Views => NHL Transactions => Topic started by: Zee on September 23, 2019, 12:52:11 PM

Title: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Zee on September 23, 2019, 12:52:11 PM
Point signed 3 years $6.75M AAV
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 23, 2019, 01:03:26 PM
Of course.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: mr grieves on September 23, 2019, 01:06:03 PM
That long back and forth between Jonas and Mirtle, echoed sometimes here, is getting its answer: looks less and less likely that Marner/Leafs did, in fact, reset the high-end RFA market. Implications of that... not great!
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 01:06:28 PM
None of the big deals Tampa has signed in recent years fit into the league's salary structure. It's not really a shocker that this one doesn't either.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: herman on September 23, 2019, 01:07:57 PM
Thats how you re-reset the market
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: lamajama on September 23, 2019, 01:08:26 PM
Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

And far less likely those "offer sheets" rumours likely were for much less than what Marner signed for.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Zee on September 23, 2019, 01:09:47 PM
That long back and forth between Jonas and Mirtle, echoed sometimes here, is getting its answer: looks less and less likely that Marner/Leafs did, in fact, reset the high-end RFA market. Implications of that... not great!

Yep.  It's fine if the market was truly "re-set" but if you're the only team playing by the new rules, it ain't good.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 01:11:44 PM
Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

How does this make the Eichel or Aho deals look?

This deal is the outlier right now. Not Marner. I mean, Point outscored Boeser by like 40 points and got a million more than he did.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Strangelove on September 23, 2019, 01:14:44 PM
This deal confirms that the Marner deal was atrocious.

Not that any confirmation was needed, but yikes.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 01:17:30 PM
Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

And far less likely those "offer sheets" rumours likely were for much less than what Marner signed for.

Not to mention Marner's endorsement will make up for the tax difference, but that doesn't seem to count??
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 01:24:03 PM

Does the Hedman deal make the Karlsson and Doughty deals bad? Does the Stamkos deal make the Tavares deal bad? How about Panarin and Kucherov?

The idea that the Leafs are alone in not paying Tampa prices is demonstrably false.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Zee on September 23, 2019, 01:24:38 PM
Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

And far less likely those "offer sheets" rumours likely were for much less than what Marner signed for.

Not to mention Marner's endorsement will make up for the tax difference, but that doesn't seem to count??
It was always an ego thing for Marner's camp.  He wanted to be recognized in the same territory as Matthews and Tavares so hence the big ticket contract.  It is what it is, our team is solid for this season despite the overpay, nothing we can do now.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Strangelove on September 23, 2019, 01:33:46 PM

Does the Hedman deal make the Karlsson and Doughty deals bad? Does the Stamkos deal make the Tavares deal bad? How about Panarin and Kucherov?

The idea that the Leafs are alone in not paying Tampa prices is demonstrably false.

Are any of those players Restricted Free Agents?

There is no spin that makes 6 x $11 million look even passable when a superior player got 3 x $6.75 after the Marner contract was signed.

Dubas had plenty of political/fan capital to allow Marner to sit until he decided to bring his demands into the realm of reasonability. Instead he ended up with a deal that puts the team at a competitive disadvantage in terms of cap flexibility.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 23, 2019, 01:36:29 PM

Remember when there was talk about the 3rd year of a potential Marner deal being $13mil?
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 01:40:02 PM
Are any of those players Restricted Free Agents?

Why does that matter? If the rest of the league is paying significantly higher for their UFA's then Tampa is, why is it surprising that the same is true with RFA's?

There is no spin that makes 6 x $11 million look even passable when a superior player got 3 x $6.75 after the Marner contract was signed.

Sorry, I forgot these were the only two contracts in the NHL. Carry on.

Dubas had plenty of political/fan capital to allow Marner to sit until he decided to bring his demands into the realm of reasonability. Instead he ended up with a deal that puts the team at a competitive disadvantage in terms of cap flexibility.

Or he paid roughly the going rate around the league for every team but one.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Strangelove on September 23, 2019, 01:42:55 PM
Are any of those players Restricted Free Agents?

Why does that matter? If the rest of the league is paying significantly higher for their UFA's then Tampa is, why is it surprising that the same is true with RFA's?

There is no spin that makes 6 x $11 million look even passable when a superior player got 3 x $6.75 after the Marner contract was signed.

Sorry, I forgot these were the only two contracts in the NHL. Carry on.

Dubas had plenty of political/fan capital to allow Marner to sit until he decided to bring his demands into the realm of reasonability. Instead he ended up with a deal that puts the team at a competitive disadvantage in terms of cap flexibility.

Or he paid roughly the going rate around the league for every team but one.

The argument is that the Leafs are now paying significantly more for their RFAs than the rest of the league, not just Tampa.

The Leafs are in the middle of a "market reset" that seems to affect only themselves.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 01:45:39 PM
The argument is that the Leafs are now paying significantly more for their RFAs than the rest of the league, not just Tampa.

And that argument has been debunked, again and again. It's only being made by people who are only looking at the extreme outliers and saying "Why couldn't the Leafs get that deal?!?!?!?" and not trying to peg things into a leaguewide structure.

Again, explain Boeser vs. Point if the Leafs are somehow exclusively paying higher rates than Tampa. Explain Eichel. Explain Draisaitl.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 01:52:13 PM
When the dust settles shortly on this years crop of RFA's Marner is seen as the 3rd or 4th best player but will have the highest salary and Cap hit. I'm not sure how that can be spun as not an overpayment. Combine that with Marner easily being the biggest endorsement guy and he gave the Leaf's absolutely nothing on the negotiation front.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Strangelove on September 23, 2019, 01:53:55 PM
The argument is that the Leafs are now paying significantly more for their RFAs than the rest of the league, not just Tampa.

And that argument has been debunked, again and again. It's only being made by people who are only looking at the extreme outliers and saying "Why couldn't the Leafs get that deal?!?!?!?" and not trying to peg things into a leaguewide structure.

Again, explain Boeser vs. Point if the Leafs are somehow exclusively paying higher rates than Tampa. Explain Eichel. Explain Draisaitl.

You're referring to contracts that are longer than Marner's and have a lower AAV. What am I supposed to be explaining?

I don't think people would be nearly as miffed if Marner werelocked in for 8 years. It would still be an overpayment, but not as obviously bad.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 01:58:42 PM
You're referring to contracts that are longer than Marner's and have a lower AAV. What am I supposed to be explaining?

Really? Boeser's three year deal is longer than Marner's six?

The question is in simple English. If the Leafs are exclusive in paying significantly higher rates than Tampa than explain Point's deal in relation to some of the other deals signed.

Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: mr grieves on September 23, 2019, 02:00:58 PM
Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

How does this make the Eichel or Aho deals look?

This deal is the outlier right now. Not Marner. I mean, Point outscored Boeser by like 40 points and got a million more than he did.

Is it not safer to say both Marner and Point are outliers here? Marner in a player-friendly direction, Point in a team-friendly one. We're still waiting on a few others have others, but it looks like the market is generally delivering contracts somewhere between the two.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Strangelove on September 23, 2019, 02:02:41 PM
You're referring to contracts that are longer than Marner's and have a lower AAV. What am I supposed to be explaining?

Really? Boeser's three year deal is longer than Marner's six?

The question is in simple English. If the Leafs are exclusive in paying significantly higher rates than Tampa than explain Point's deal in relation to some of the other deals signed.

I don't really know what Boeser has to do with anything. Marner's deal looks bad relative to other RFA deals, both recent and older. One of the deals that makes it look bad is the Point deal. This isn't very complicated.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 02:06:28 PM
Is it not safer to say both Marner and Point are outliers here?

No, because I don't think Marner really is one. Is he on the higher side of things? Sure. But is his deal wildly out of whack with, say, the Draisaitl deal in terms of AAV? I don't think so.

I did a point per % of the cap thing in the Boeser thread and, for instance, Draisaitl got .147 of the cap for every point he scored in the final year of his ELC. Marner got .142.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 02:08:37 PM
I don't really know what Boeser has to do with anything.

He's another recently signed RFA whose deal is part of the salary structure of the league that we're trying to compare these deals to. Again, Marner and Point are not the only two contracts in the league.

Tampa is getting a leg up on everyone in this regard, not just the Leafs. Their deals are outliers, not a representation of the norm.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: mr grieves on September 23, 2019, 02:26:18 PM
Is it not safer to say both Marner and Point are outliers here?

No, because I don't think Marner really is one. Is he on the higher side of things? Sure. But is his deal wildly out of whack with, say, the Draisaitl deal in terms of AAV? I don't think so.

I did a point per % of the cap thing in the Boeser thread and, for instance, Draisaitl got .147 of the cap for every point he scored in the final year of his ELC. Marner got .142.

On a deal that bought up an extra 2 UFA years... Eichel's another in Marner's C.H.% range, but, again, on a deal that runs to 8 years. Some of recent 4-to-5-year deals for high-end players leaving their ELCs (Larkin, Meier, Guentzel), but most are in the 7% range, with Aho in the 10% range. One extra year, and the Leafs are paying as if they've bought up three more?   

I don't know. I get it's very attractive and awfully easy to say we oughtn't compare Point to Marner to draw conclusions about the current RFA market, but, looking beyond Tampa, I can't find a sample of RFA deals where Marner's isn't a notable outlier.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 02:34:02 PM
On a deal that bought up an extra 2 UFA years...

But there's a lot of ways to parse things. Marner wasn't playing with McDavid. He was also killing penalties. He also had three good years of point production to Draisaitl's one or one and a half. Marner outscored Draisaitl in their third years by 22%. Yes, Draisaitl's deal bought up extra years but that's reflected in Draisaitl getting more of the cap per point despite not really being close to Marner's out put.

Either way, the Marner deal is pretty roughly comparable to Draisaitl's and a host of others. Point's deal isn't.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 02:38:00 PM

Eichel, as a comparable, for instance would be at .208 of the cap per point scored in the year before he signed or roughly 40% higher than Marner. Even if you pro-rate Eichel that year to 82 games and 78 points he's still at .170.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 02:38:43 PM
Only a couple deals signed this summer make Marner's look good.  Hayes and Keller, not exactly a group you want in.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 23, 2019, 02:41:26 PM
This is the sort of deal I thought Marner wanted. TB will qualify Point for year 4 at 9 mill, he could accept, and then walk to UFA and be asking for 15+ mill there. We'll only really know which path is best for teams and players in six years. How much is Point going to make during those 6 years?


Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 02:41:32 PM
Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: mr grieves on September 23, 2019, 03:00:37 PM

Eichel, as a comparable, for instance would be at .208 of the cap per point scored in the year before he signed or roughly 40% higher than Marner. Even if you pro-rate Eichel that year to 82 games and 78 points he's still at .170.

But, as you note, there's a lot of ways to parse things. Eichel is Buffalo's franchise 1C. He was drafted just behind the greatest player of his generation. He wasn't playing with talent in Tavares's league. He was injured and production takes a hit even when one's back. And so on.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Guilt Trip on September 23, 2019, 03:08:24 PM
Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??
I believe I said it when it was known JT and Marner would play together, that it would cost the Leafs big time because he was going to have a great year. It did. As for comparing Point and Marner. It is what it is.
I think the NHL needs to level the playing field with the tax system. Pick the highest income tax in the places they play and put it on everyone cap wise. So while Point makes 6 mill, his actual cap hit is 8.5 kind of deal. Don't know if it's possible but it would remove the imbalance and takeaway any advantages of a no or low tax state.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: L K on September 23, 2019, 03:11:08 PM
Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??

He also helped Tavares score 10 more goals than the previous season and 9 more than his career high.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 03:12:21 PM
Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??
I believe I said it when it was known JT and Marner would play together, that it would cost the Leafs big time because he was going to have a great year. It did. As for comparing Point and Marner. It is what it is.
I think the NHL needs to level the playing field with the tax system. Pick the highest income tax in the places they play and put it on everyone cap wise. So while Point makes 6 mill, his actual cap hit is 8.5 kind of deal. Don't know if it's possible but it would remove the imbalance and takeaway any advantages of a no or low tax state.

What should they do with endorsement money?
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 03:13:08 PM
But, as you note, there's a lot of ways to parse things. Eichel is Buffalo's franchise 1C. He was drafted just behind the greatest player of his generation. He wasn't playing with talent in Tavares's league. He was injured and production takes a hit even when one's back. And so on.

Right, but do those things add up to 40% more per point? Does that make it a good or better deal that Eichel was drafted behind McDavid?

One of the things that's frustrating about this discussion is that there seems to be a set of generally accepted principles that we all accept like teams should pay a premium to buy up extra UFA years(although it wasn't too long ago that teams sold that as "guaranteeing security") but how much? Teams generally value Centres over Wings and goal scoring over assists but how does that actually translate specifically?

But it's not just deals like Eichel and Draisaitl or a bunch of other historical comparisons I could make(Kessel's 2nd deal was .016 cap % per point higher than Marner, RNH's was .048!). Point's deal has him paid, per point, less than Andreas Johnsson. It's just completely unprecedented.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 03:14:03 PM
Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??

He also helped Tavares score 10 more goals than the previous season and 9 more than his career high.

Does the goal scorer get the passer points or the other way around? No goal, no assist. I'm kidding, both are important.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Guilt Trip on September 23, 2019, 03:14:33 PM
Marner wasn't exactly playing with The Goat last season. He did however help Tavares gain a whopping 4 points over his previous season while gaining 25 of his own. Hmmm could there be something there??

He also helped Tavares score 10 more goals than the previous season and 9 more than his career high.
All true. Both definitely helped each other but Marner wasn't getting 94 points last year playing with Bozak or Kadri as his centre.
Someone posted a stat or graph in the past that showed JT was more beneficial to Marner's stats then Marner was to JT.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 03:16:25 PM

Pre-Marner, Tavares averaged 33 goals and 38 points per 82 games.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 03:19:00 PM

Pre-Marner, Tavares averaged 33 goals and 38 points per 82 games.

And only Marner changed for Tavares? And what were Marner's averages?
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 03:19:11 PM
All true. Both definitely helped each other but Marner wasn't getting 94 points last year playing with Bozak or Kadri as his centre.
Someone posted a stat or graph in the past that showed JT was more beneficial to Marner's stats then Marner was to JT.

Marner went from 69 points to 94 from year 2 to year 3. Is some of that attributable to Tavares? Sure.

But....

- His ice time was also up
- His PP time was up
- Scoring around the league was up

Throw in some natural progression and it's really hard to make the case that Tavares accounted for a huge jump for Marner.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: mr grieves on September 23, 2019, 03:25:56 PM
But it's not just deals like Eichel and Draisaitl or a bunch of other historical comparisons I could make(Kessel's 2nd deal was .016 cap % per point higher than Marner, RNH's was .048!). Point's deal has him paid, per point, less than Andreas Johnsson. It's just completely unprecedented.

It is also a three-year bridge and, at 8.3% of the cap, is probably the richest contract of that sort in the league. 

I think your C.H.% previous season's points formula overlooks the extent to which term plays into the contracts that are eventually signed. It's not crazy to me that you'd only get into that .125 to .175 range if you're looking at long-term deal and that bridges come in at lower percent-per-point values.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Frank E on September 23, 2019, 03:30:46 PM
That's a very nice deal for me to poop on.

I don't know how Tampa hasn't won a Cup yet lately...unlucky I guess.

This deal was inevitably going to be compared to Marner's, and it looks great in comparison, today.

We can check back in on how good it looks in 3 years from now when Point's to be re-signed. 
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Zee on September 23, 2019, 03:37:21 PM
That's a very nice deal for me to poop on.

I don't know how Tampa hasn't won a Cup yet lately...unlucky I guess.

This deal was inevitably going to be compared to Marner's, and it looks great in comparison, today.

We can check back in on how good it looks in 3 years from now when Point's to be re-signed.

Point would have to sign for $15M/year for 3 following years to have the same amount of money that Marner is getting over 6
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 03:37:42 PM
It is also a three-year bridge and, at 8.3% of the cap, is probably the richest contract of that sort in the league.

Except that feeds into what I'm saying. How many 80 or 90+ point players looking to sign their second deals signed three year bridges?

To the best of my off-hand knowledge there's just Eric Staal, who got 2% more of the cap than Point in the Cap's first real off-season.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 03:38:50 PM
Point would have to sign for $15M/year for 3 following years to have the same amount of money that Marner is getting over 6

Not in take-home.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 23, 2019, 03:43:10 PM
That's a very nice deal for me to poop on.

I don't know how Tampa hasn't won a Cup yet lately...unlucky I guess.

This deal was inevitably going to be compared to Marner's, and it looks great in comparison, today.

We can check back in on how good it looks in 3 years from now when Point's to be re-signed.

Point would have to sign for $15M/year for 3 following years to have the same amount of money that Marner is getting over 6

Depending on how the TV deal works out in 2022, it could happen. It will at least be closer than people think by 2025. Marner is going to make more I would wager, but not that much more.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: mr grieves on September 23, 2019, 03:47:26 PM
It is also a three-year bridge and, at 8.3% of the cap, is probably the richest contract of that sort in the league.

Except that feeds into what I'm saying. How many 80 or 90+ point players looking to sign their second deals signed three year bridges?

To the best of my off-hand knowledge there's just Eric Staal, who got 2% more of the cap than Point in the Cap's first real off-season.

Right. It's rare. Point's deal is a re-setting of the RFA market that I thought we might see with Marner -- bridges at a higher AAV/C.H.% than we've seen before, presumably setting the player up for another bump in a few years. We'll have to wait and see how it works out for Tampa in the long term.

For the time being, the richer bridge increases the near-term competitiveness of their roster. They can afford a valuable depth piece that the Leafs cannot.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 03:49:27 PM
Point would have to sign for $15M/year for 3 following years to have the same amount of money that Marner is getting over 6

Not in take-home.

Including endorcements?
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 03:51:37 PM
For the time being, the richer bridge increases the near-term competitiveness of their roster. They can afford a valuable depth piece that the Leafs cannot.

Like I was saying earlier, all of Tampa's major contracts have been significantly lower than for comparable players around the league. So it's not this deal that gives them a meaningful competitive advantage over everyone else, it's the cumulative effect of all of them.

Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Frank E on September 23, 2019, 03:54:39 PM
For the time being, the richer bridge increases the near-term competitiveness of their roster. They can afford a valuable depth piece that the Leafs cannot.

Like I was saying earlier, all of Tampa's major contracts have been significantly lower than for comparable players around the league. So it's not this deal that gives them a meaningful competitive advantage over everyone else, it's the cumulative effect of all of them.

It's not just this deal, I think is what you mean.  Because this deal certainly contributes significantly to their not having to ice a Holl and a Gauthier, and a 21 player roster, etc...
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 04:02:30 PM
It's not just this deal, I think is what you mean.  Because this deal certainly contributes significantly to their not having to ice a Holl and a Gauthier, and a 21 player roster, etc...

No, Frank, I'm pretty sure I meant what I said. This deal vs. a high price three year bridge deal is probably a couple million or so which I don't think is a particularly significant competitive advantage. Especially not one that can't be overcome by good development/scouting.

When you add them up and it gets to be 8-10 million? That's a real difference.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 23, 2019, 04:10:33 PM
Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

How does this make the Eichel or Aho deals look?

This deal is the outlier right now. Not Marner. I mean, Point outscored Boeser by like 40 points and got a million more than he did.

This..All day long.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: bustaheims on September 23, 2019, 04:11:11 PM
Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

And far less likely those "offer sheets" rumours likely were for much less than what Marner signed for.

Not to mention Marner's endorsement will make up for the tax difference, but that doesn't seem to count??

A) He'd get those endorsements regardless of how much his contract with the team was, so, no, they don't count.

B) Marner would have to earn close to ~$2M in endorsements per season to make up the tax difference between Ontario and Florida. Only 3 players in the league currently earn that much through endorsement deals - Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 23, 2019, 04:12:45 PM
It is also a three-year bridge and, at 8.3% of the cap, is probably the richest contract of that sort in the league.

Except that feeds into what I'm saying. How many 80 or 90+ point players looking to sign their second deals signed three year bridges?

To the best of my off-hand knowledge there's just Eric Staal, who got 2% more of the cap than Point in the Cap's first real off-season.

Right. It's rare. Point's deal is a re-setting of the RFA market that I thought we might see with Marner -- bridges at a higher AAV/C.H.% than we've seen before, presumably setting the player up for another bump in a few years. We'll have to wait and see how it works out for Tampa in the long term.

For the time being, the richer bridge increases the near-term competitiveness of their roster. They can afford a valuable depth piece that the Leafs cannot.

Have you seen their Capfriendly?

They, like the Leafs, have 8-9 players on their projected roster on ELC/sub $1M deals.

What's interesting is the allocation of dollars:   All of Tampa's mid-tier forwards are between 4.5M - 5.5M each.  All of Toronto's are between 2.25M and 3.5M.  I personally don't think there is a huge difference between Killorn, Palat, Tyler Johnson, Gourde and Mango, Kappy, Kerfoot, and Hyman.  Especially given the age difference (all of Tampa's are 27+)

The difference in forward salaries of the Top 8 F's on both teams:  The Leafs have four STAR forwards (50.5M for top 8 ) and Tampa has three STAR forwards (46.3M for top 8 ).  I'm fully on board with a shift to paying stars more.  While a reset hasn't happened yet- except for in TO- I do expect things will shift.

And next year, Tampa is in a real pickle.  74M commited to 14 roster spots, and they'll need to re-sign Sergachev in the approx. 10M in cap space they'll have to split among 8 players.

Its not all roses for the Leafs either, with only Rielly and Sandin (from current projected D-men to start this season) signed beyond this season on D.  But I do think its more manageable.

Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 23, 2019, 04:18:57 PM
With Great Bucks comes Great Responsibility.

Like it or not, it's game on for Marner, because he will be compared to Point for the next 3 years whether it's fair or not.  By his own account, Mitch didn't like the greedy narrative that took hold at the end of the contract negotiations.  There will be plenty of journos (that scratching sound you hear is Cox sharpening his goosedown pen quills) who will be ready to take that simplistic storyline and grind Marner into the sidewalk with it if he doesn't outperform (and by that I mean outpoint) Point.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 04:20:29 PM
We've talked about endorsements a lot in the past here but there are some other reasons why, in this context, it's an atrociously bad argument for trying to equalize things between the hard, cold facts of tax rates:

1) Teams already see an economic benefit from players doing endorsements in the form of increased exposure of their star players in the market.

2) It's entirely conjecture. It's not just the total $ in endorsements that's the issue it's "How much would a player make in Market A vs. Market B" and there's no way to know that.

3) Our actual knowledge of how much players make via endorsements is basically nothing(Forbes' numbers, as they are with everything, are estimates) but the estimates we do have strongly indicate that it's a players' personal level of success that dictates endorsement income rather than market size.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 04:45:23 PM
Less income tax and bridge deal or no this makes the Marner deal look like the Leafs got bent over bad.

And far less likely those "offer sheets" rumours likely were for much less than what Marner signed for.

Not to mention Marner's endorsement will make up for the tax difference, but that doesn't seem to count??

A) He'd get those endorsements regardless of how much his contract with the team was, so, no, they don't count.

B) Marner would have to earn close to ~$2M in endorsements per season to make up the tax difference between Ontario and Florida. Only 3 players in the league currently earn that much through endorsement deals - Crosby, Ovechkin, and McDavid.

$2 million is exactly what was reported for Marner a few weeks back. If taxes count surely extra money should???
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 04:57:31 PM
Like it or not, it's game on for Marner, because he will be compared to Point for the next 3 years whether it's fair or not.

It's not a question of liking it or not. If it's an unfair or meaningless comparison people can make it all they want but it won't enter into any serious discussions of Marner or the team.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Average Joes on September 23, 2019, 05:10:21 PM
The tax situation is not as clear cut as Florida vs Ontario income taxes.  There are ways to save mentioned in the Forbes article. They apply to Tavares but some of which could apply to Marner especially since he got most of it in bonus money.   Point reportedly got a good chunk in bonus but not all of it.  www.forbes.com/sites/seanpackard/2018/07/06/john-tavares-could-save-nearly-12-million-in-taxes-on-his-new-contract/#2259c4aa1ab7

It would be interesting if someone could calculate the anticipated tax rate for Marner by using whatever tax savings are available. Add something reasonable for endorsements and then compare that to other RFAs.

 
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Frank E on September 23, 2019, 05:14:55 PM
The Leafs should ask Ferris to go out there again on the sports radio circuit call-in shows and tell everyone about all those offer sheets that Marner turned down.

Another 90+ point RFA on a good team isn't comparable to Mitch Marner?...OK, sure.

Had he signed for $10.9m X 6, they sure wouldn't be saying that.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 05:15:04 PM
The tax situation is not as clear cut as Florida vs Ontario income taxes.  There are ways to save mentioned in the Forbes article. They apply to Tavares but some of which could apply to Marner especially since he got most of it in bonus money.   Point reportedly got a good chunk in bonus but not all of it.  www.forbes.com/sites/seanpackard/2018/07/06/john-tavares-could-save-nearly-12-million-in-taxes-on-his-new-contract/#2259c4aa1ab7

It would be interesting if someone could calculate the anticipated tax rate for Marner by using whatever tax savings are available. Add something reasonable for endorsements and then compare that to other RFAs.


I don't Marner could file as an American so that article is kinda irrelevant.  Signing bonus tax benefits are for Canadians working in US or visa versa. I don't know if an athlete can incorporate in Canada or not and no one answered my previous ask?? That would be beneficial.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 05:21:51 PM
The tax situation is not as clear cut as Florida vs Ontario income taxes.  There are ways to save mentioned in the Forbes article. They apply to Tavares but some of which could apply to Marner especially since he got most of it in bonus money.

Most of those appear to only be applicable to Tavares because he has US residency which Marner almost certainly doesn't.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Guilt Trip on September 23, 2019, 05:37:39 PM
Just taking a quick look at the tax situation on Cap friendly. Marner after taxes makes 5,090,498. Point will make 4,094,678 after tax. Seeing the Leafs signed Marner for 6 years, and Point's is a bridge deal, it's ot so bad looking at it that way.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 05:38:44 PM
Just taking a quick look at the tax situation on Cap friendly. Marner after taxes makes 5,090,498. Point will make 4,094,678 after tax. Seeing the Leafs signed Marner for 6 years, and Point's is a bridge deal. Not so bad looking at it that way.

Assuming a straight line simple tax of course, which is highly unlikely.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Guilt Trip on September 23, 2019, 05:40:03 PM
Just taking a quick look at the tax situation on Cap friendly. Marner after taxes makes 5,090,498. Point will make 4,094,678 after tax. Seeing the Leafs signed Marner for 6 years, and Point's is a bridge deal. Not so bad looking at it that way.

Assuming a straight line simple tax of course, which is highly unlikely.
I just punched in numbers of Cap Friendly so you're probably right but still there is a difference and it's a big difference.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Bates on September 23, 2019, 05:45:56 PM
Just taking a quick look at the tax situation on Cap friendly. Marner after taxes makes 5,090,498. Point will make 4,094,678 after tax. Seeing the Leafs signed Marner for 6 years, and Point's is a bridge deal. Not so bad looking at it that way.

Assuming a straight line simple tax of course, which is highly unlikely.
I just punched in numbers of Cap Friendly so you're probably right but still there is a difference and it's a big difference.

It would get a bit smaller with tax planning. As an easy example assuming Point is filing as an American for tax purposes, he has to pay State taxes in every State he works in as a percentage of his work time. Marner does not have that. It could be 30% of his playing time as a guesstimate. 

Marner could incorporate as a Professional Corp and pay Corporate tax rate every year while only paying income tax on his own actual salary that he withdraws, allowing him to keep more money and grow it inside the Corp. Very popular among doctors these days.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: BrownRolo on September 23, 2019, 06:44:12 PM
I hope Marner puts up huge numbers this year because if he doesn't the media and a lot of fans are going to really give it to him.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 23, 2019, 07:12:25 PM
I hope Marner puts up huge numbers this year because if he doesn't the media and a lot of fans are going to really give it to him.

This is what I hate about sports and the public nature of their salaries.  What Marner makes does not change the type of player he is. 

I'll use Bryan McCabe as an example.  He was a pretty good dman for the leafs.  And when he was making 2 million a year everyone loved him.  Then he signs a deal for 5 million a year and certain fans  expect him to win Norris trophy's.  The amount of the contract did not change what he brought to the table.

Now a slight difference in the Marner case is that it's possible that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet.  Still it's not like signing this deal means that Marner is going to start winning Art Ross trophies.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: Nik on September 23, 2019, 07:15:13 PM

If Marner had a bad season, I don't think a lot of fans would cut him a break if he were only making 9 million.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: azzurri63 on September 23, 2019, 07:16:35 PM
Tired of seeing a lot of these guys sign for far less than our guys. Said it last year with Nylander and snowballed from there.

Posted on another site about taxes etc and how fair it is across the league but either Dubas needed to buckle down or something needs to change in the CBA to take into account for taxes etc.

I understand Point only signed for 3 years but almost 5 million per season less than Marner is fn ridiculous.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: BrownRolo on September 23, 2019, 07:53:51 PM
I hope Marner puts up huge numbers this year because if he doesn't the media and a lot of fans are going to really give it to him.

This is what I hate about sports and the public nature of their salaries.  What Marner makes does not change the type of player he is. 

I'll use Bryan McCabe as an example.  He was a pretty good dman for the leafs.  And when he was making 2 million a year everyone loved him.  Then he signs a deal for 5 million a year and certain fans  expect him to win Norris trophy's.  The amount of the contract did not change what he brought to the table.

Now a slight difference in the Marner case is that it's possible that he hasn't reached his ceiling yet.  Still it's not like signing this deal means that Marner is going to start winning Art Ross trophies.

I think it's more because of how the negotiations went and how he clearly demanded to be overpaid and was not fair to the team.

So if he comes out cold to start the season I think fans will turn on him.

I soured on him a little already to be honest. I never felt Nylander was acting unreasonable and Matthews was overpaid considering term but still it's acceptable. Marner has to perform as the 2nd paid highest winger in the league. 60 point season won't cut it. He's put a lot of pressure on himself and I hope he can handle it.
Title: Re: Point signs 3-year bridge deal
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 24, 2019, 03:53:30 PM
Since the topic of regression came up a bit with Marner, I think it's fair to wonder about it here as well.

In Point's first 2 seasons he shot 14.8% and 14.7%. This season that jumped up to a massive 21.5%. For some reference here Stamkos is a career 16.9% shooter and has been above the 20% mark just once in his career. Ovi's a career 12.6% and his career high percentage is just 15.1% (which he hit just this past season). Matthews is a career 15.5% shooter with a season high of 18.2%. So there's almost no way Points gets 20% again, and unless his shot volume increases by a lot he's not getting close to 40 goals again.

I had heard about his high shooting percentage before but I didn't realize how high his PP shooting percentage was until just now (when I was looking at some Faulk-related stuff). Point led the league in PP goals this past season with 20. He did that on just 51 shots! That's a 39.22%. That's an absolutely insane number. Stamkos and Ovi were behind him with 19 and 18 goals but they did that on 88 and 115 shots respectively. Looking through some previous seasons nobody has even gotten close to a 39% shooting percentage on the powerplay. Last season Laine led the league in powerplay goals/shooting percentage and he was at 20 goals/27.4%.