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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Topic started by: CarltonTheBear on April 25, 2019, 09:24:02 AM

Title: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 25, 2019, 09:24:02 AM
Marner's final season point totals:

82 regular season games, 26 goals, 68 assists, 94 points
7 playoff games, 2 goals, 2 assists, 4 points

In the regular season he finished in a tie for 69th (nice) in goals, 4th in assists, and 11th in points. Among players with a minimum of 65 GP he finished 15th in points per game. Among those 14 players ahead of him 6 of them were wingers, 7 if you count Draisaitl as a winger.

Does anyone still see him getting $12mil like our buddy Brad Marchand suggested? Or how about even getting as much as Matthews?

For what it's worth @EvolvingWild, a prominent voice in the analytics community, has their contract projections model up for this years free agent class. You can find the link to it here (https://t.co/gVZYSBFJHB). Their initial prediction for Marner is an 8-year deal at $10.113mil. On a 5 or 6 year deal their model has him just a shade over $9mil.

My prediction, much like Dubas wanting to keep Nylander below $7mil on the cap I think they'll try to figure something out that keeps Marner below $10mil. That probably means an 8 year deal is of the table. A 5 year contract would make his contract expire the same year as Matthews and Nylander's, so I'm guessing 6 years, $9.5mil.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 25, 2019, 10:21:50 AM
I have to agree that something shorter is more likely since that's what we've seen in the past. 6 at 9.5 per seems about right.

One thing I'll bet on is that it happens later rather than sooner. If the team manages to rid themselves of some high priced contracts, maybe 8 years is suddenly back on the table.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: L K on April 25, 2019, 10:32:51 AM
8*10 is my guess.

Kane got 10.5 coming off 133 points in 130 games in the two years before his deal started.  (He also had 457 career points by that time in 576 games)

Marner has 163 points in the 164 games before his contract.

Kane got 10.5M.   Kane also scored 43 points in the two playoff runs prior to his contract (plus the 71 other playoff points on his resume)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 25, 2019, 10:54:16 AM
Kane got 10.5 coming off 133 points in 130 games in the two years before his deal started.  (He also had 457 career points by that time in 576 games)

Marner has 163 points in the 164 games before his contract.

Some context for this though: Kane's P/GP in those seasons was 4th in the league. Marner's P/GP in those seasons was 25th. They're really not comparable.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 25, 2019, 11:33:44 AM
 He won't be getting Matthews' money even tho we know that'll be Paul's ask. JT had a lot to do with Marner's increase in points this season. He doesn't get those points playing with anyone else unless it's Matthews. I can see 8 years @ 10 per getting it done.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2019, 11:48:05 AM
8x10 would be great. I like locking up one of our big guys for 8 years. Let's make it happen
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on April 25, 2019, 11:50:54 AM
I think $10m is fair. He's not a big scoring centre and thus doesn't deserve the same contract as Matthews. I love Marner and think he's great and he's going to make a lot over his career but anything over $10M and everything starts to accrue. We need every bit of cap savings we can get.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 25, 2019, 01:19:10 PM
I think $10m is fair. He's not a big scoring centre and thus doesn't deserve the same contract as Matthews. I love Marner and think he's great and he's going to make a lot over his career but anything over $10M and everything starts to accrue. We need every bit of cap savings we can get.
10 is very fair. Are you listening Paul Marner????
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 25, 2019, 02:43:36 PM

This is just utter stupidity. There was some talk when Matthews signed his contract about people being happy with it even though it didn't match what their own predictions were prior to the signing. So I'll go on record here to say that if Marner gets $11mil then Dubas signed a bad deal.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on April 25, 2019, 02:46:39 PM

This is just utter stupidity. There was some talk when Matthews signed his contract about people being happy with it even though it didn't match what their own predictions were prior to the signing. So I'll go on record here to say that if Marner gets $11mil then Dubas signed a bad deal.

Why does everyone think that players signing an offer sheet is going to happen? They've talked about it for years and it almost NEVER happens. I don't think Marner is willing to go to a team that has that kind of cap space for an extra $1-2mil per year if he can stay here and be surrounded by players that can help him excel. $ isn't the last word in everything. If I were offered $20k more per year to go somewhere else in my industry I'd have to think long and hard about whether the money is enough to get me to leave, because I like where I am.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Hobbes on April 25, 2019, 04:16:38 PM
I do think there's a huge urgency to get Marner signed but not because of the risk of offer sheets. Dubas needs cost certainty on Marner before he can even start to think about doing anything at all on our own UFAs or any others that might be coming up. He needs to know this number to be able to do any shopping at all on July 1st. There might be some players (UFAs) who would agree to take less money to come to Toronto and have a shot at a cup, but I doubt they're going to also want to wait until Oct 1st before signing. Until the ink is dry on Marner's contract, Dubas' hands are tied for everything else.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 25, 2019, 04:44:38 PM
I do think there's a huge urgency to get Marner signed but not because of the risk of offer sheets. Dubas needs cost certainty on Marner before he can even start to think about doing anything at all on our own UFAs or any others that might be coming up. He needs to know this number to be able to do any shopping at all on July 1st. There might be some players (UFAs) who would agree to take less money to come to Toronto and have a shot at a cup, but I doubt they're going to also want to wait until Oct 1st before signing. Until the ink is dry on Marner's contract, Dubas' hands are tied for everything else.

The only July 1st shopping they'll be doing is for Canada Flag birthday cakes.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 25, 2019, 05:03:59 PM
The media are idiots. If someone wants to offer him stupid money and he signs it, it will be see you later. He's a great player but he's not Matthews. I agree with CTB here. 11 mill is a bad contract.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: freer on April 26, 2019, 02:09:51 AM
The media are idiots. If someone wants to offer him stupid money and he signs it, it will be see you later. He's a great player but he's not Matthews. I agree with CTB here. 11 mill is a bad contract.

I think 8.9 to 9.5 should be his top wage. Anything more then that is ridiculous IMO
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Leaffan61 on April 26, 2019, 09:22:30 AM
His market value is $9.5-10 million x 8. Add on the Dubas Premium and don't be surprised if he gets $11 million x 8.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on April 26, 2019, 09:39:46 AM
The media are idiots. If someone wants to offer him stupid money and he signs it, it will be see you later. He's a great player but he's not Matthews. I agree with CTB here. 11 mill is a bad contract.

I'll bet Dreger is spewing whatever either Darren Ferris or Paul Marner is telling him to say.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: L K on April 26, 2019, 01:23:01 PM

This is just utter stupidity. There was some talk when Matthews signed his contract about people being happy with it even though it didn't match what their own predictions were prior to the signing. So I'll go on record here to say that if Marner gets $11mil then Dubas signed a bad deal.

Why does everyone think that players signing an offer sheet is going to happen? They've talked about it for years and it almost NEVER happens. I don't think Marner is willing to go to a team that has that kind of cap space for an extra $1-2mil per year if he can stay here and be surrounded by players that can help him excel. $ isn't the last word in everything. If I were offered $20k more per year to go somewhere else in my industry I'd have to think long and hard about whether the money is enough to get me to leave, because I like where I am.

Because they need to justify their boring July 1st/Trade Deadline shows. 

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: TML fan on April 26, 2019, 01:33:37 PM
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on April 26, 2019, 01:35:12 PM
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

Matthews scores more goals and is a center which has more responsibility on ice as opposed to winger.  You can make a case that Marner also kills penalties while Matthews doesn't, however traditionally scoring centers are more valued in the league and are more difficult to replace.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2019, 02:04:01 PM
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

Matthews scores more goals and is a center which has more responsibility on ice as opposed to winger.  You can make a case that Marner also kills penalties while Matthews doesn't, however traditionally scoring centers are more valued in the league and are more difficult to replace.
The main reason it's unfair to compare the 2 players comes down to a few things. While their numbers are virtually identical regarding pts, Marner played exclusively with John freaking Tavares who has done nothing in his career but made his wingers a lot better. Marner does not get 94 points without him. Matthews played with 3rd liners. Centre is also the harder position to play and goal scoring is the hardest thing to do in hockey. The fact that the media keeps saying he should ask for Matthews' money is ridiculous and very misleading really.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on April 26, 2019, 02:12:38 PM
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

Matthews scores more goals and is a center which has more responsibility on ice as opposed to winger.  You can make a case that Marner also kills penalties while Matthews doesn't, however traditionally scoring centers are more valued in the league and are more difficult to replace.
The main reason it's unfair to compare the 2 players comes down to a few things. While their numbers are virtually identical regarding pts, Marner played exclusively with John freaking Tavares who has done nothing in his career but made his wingers a lot better. Marner does not get 94 points without him. Matthews played with 3rd liners. Centre is also the harder position to play and goal scoring is the hardest thing to do in hockey. The fact that the media keeps saying he should ask for Matthews' money is ridiculous and very misleading really.

To add to that, Matthews turned into a point a game player in his 2nd season, Marner wasn't that while playing with Bozak and JVR and only took off this year as you said playing with Tavares. Matthews is slightly better than point per game this year, and again he was playing with guys who are best suited as 2nd liners I think in Johnsson and Kapanen.  Pair an elite winger with Auston (hello Nylander) and you'll see Matthews surpass 90+ points (if he stays healthy of course).  Also, a goal every second game for Auston is hard to ignore, he's a legit 40 goal man and could get 50.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 26, 2019, 02:20:07 PM
From Chris Johnson on Steve Dangle's podcast that herman linked to in the offseason thread:

Adam: Now we're hearing that it's gotta be north of $11mil otherwise they won't accept it

CJ: You're going to hear a lot of things. Agents say a lot of things. Trust me it's my job to call them. There's a lot of things, it's sorta like you leak the odd thing to a certain guy who just tweets what you say but it doesn't mean that's what you do when push comes to shove.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on April 26, 2019, 02:32:00 PM
July 1: "Mitch Marner is such a hometown hero who bleeds blue for taking that discount on his contract at 9.6916M instead of the 12.67M he could've easily commanded"

And now for 4 straight Mitch Marner ads
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on April 26, 2019, 02:32:06 PM
From Chris Johnson on Steve Dangle's podcast that herman linked to in the offseason thread:

Adam: Now we're hearing that it's gotta be north of $11mil otherwise they won't accept it

CJ: You're going to hear a lot of things. Agents say a lot of things. Trust me it's my job to call them. There's a lot of things, it's sorta like you leak the odd thing to a certain guy who just tweets what you say but it doesn't mean that's what you do when push comes to shove.


I heard that too.  I also heard Dangle's theory that Mitch takes something like $9.95 to keep it under that magic 10 number and he's seen as a hero in Toronto for "taking less".  I'll believe it when I see it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 26, 2019, 02:44:32 PM
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2019, 03:00:10 PM
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."
He's right. Wing is the easiest position to play. No one is going to offer sheet Marner 12 mill. It's not happening. When all this crap is over I'll be looking forward to watching this core play for the next 5 or so years. Good times are ahead.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: TML fan on April 26, 2019, 03:48:12 PM
The player market makes no sense to me. I also hate the salary cap. Good day.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: L K on April 26, 2019, 04:35:11 PM
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."

Matthews wasn't on the ice for 13 goals this postseason.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2019, 05:30:08 PM
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."

Matthews wasn't on the ice for 13 goals this postseason.
Very true. Mitch didn't have a good series and that's unfortunate for us. He'll be better as will all the other young guns, no doubt.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frycer14 on April 27, 2019, 09:52:08 AM
Matthews wasn't on the ice for 13 goals this postseason.

Is that 5 on 5 only, or penalty kill, which Matthews doesn't play?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: LuncheonMeat on April 27, 2019, 11:30:08 AM
Can someone explain to me why Marner is worth less than Matthews?

As I'm listening to this Chris Johnson podcast, I feel like he pretty much summed it up best by saying: "Matthews and Tavares both play centre and they both score more goals... the truth of the matter is if you look at the way money is doled out in the NHL, centres who score get the most money. And it's because its the hardest position to play, it's the hardest to find to replace, and it's the hardest thing to do in this whole game, is score goals. And Mitch Marner does all kinds of amazing stuff but he doesn't tick those two boxes."

I agree, I think goals top the list for what earns the big bucks, all else being equal. And in this case, it's not really close. Plus, center vs. winger turns the dial even more.

Goals/60:

Auston Matthews
2016/17:  1.7
2017/18:  1.8
2018/19:  1.8

Mitch Marner
2016/17:  0.9
2017/18:  1.0
2018/19:  1.0

Edit: And I think if Matthews plays with a winger like Marner, or even Nylander, that G/60 easily tops 2.0. If Marner plays with Matthews, I'm not sure his G/60 changes, or his assists for that matter.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2019, 03:09:24 PM
Matthews wasn't on the ice for 13 goals this postseason.

Is that 5 on 5 only, or penalty kill, which Matthews doesn't play?
That was total. 9 at EV. The 6-4 loss was the really bad game for the JT line. JT was on for 4, Marner 5 and Hyman was on for all 6 against. It's unfortunate that the line struggled and that he an Hyman weren't good on the PK. Fact is the PK wasn't good since Nov so.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2019, 10:34:49 PM
Kypreos spewing his crap about the offer needs to be on par with. Matthews or Marner's going to July 1 to see what's out there. I'm sure Paul told him that.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on April 28, 2019, 03:53:44 PM
I'm thinking it'll be less than Auston/JT, we'll see how much. Duration: probably a bridge, maybe a year of free-agency. Bottom line, going to July 1st/offer sheet territory, it won't happen. If it gets to the eleventh hour Mitchy will call, same as Willy and say let's do it. There's no way this guy is not playing for his Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 28, 2019, 03:57:10 PM
I'm thinking it'll be less than Auston/JT but not by much. Duration, probably a bridge, maybe a year of free-agency. Bottom line, going to July 1st/offer sheet territory, it won't happen. If it gets to the eleventh hour Mitchy will call, same as Willy and say let's do it. There's no way this guy is not playing for his Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward.
Offer sheet territory means absolutely nothing unless Mitch signs it. I don't see a bridge deal here. If Marner gets anywhere close to 11 mill it will be for the full 8 years.
Title: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: L K on April 30, 2019, 06:32:40 PM
For all the talk about the Toronto tax, how many Toronto-centric ads does Steven Stamkos have.  Prior to this year, how many did John Tavares have?

As much as the tax comes into play I think for lesser players, Marner is making a killing in endorsements that he just wouldn't be getting if he was playing in Carolina or Florida or even places like Chicago/New York/etc.  That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.  Yes, Marner still has to go out and do work to get that income and not everyone takes advantage of it, but it really should be a factor in negotiations.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 30, 2019, 06:40:35 PM
For all the talk about the Toronto tax, how many Toronto-centric ads does Steven Stamkos have.  Prior to this year, how many did John Tavares have?

As much as the tax comes into play I think for lesser players, Marner is making a killing in endorsements that he just wouldn't be getting if he was playing in Carolina or Florida or even places like Chicago/New York/etc.  That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.  Yes, Marner still has to go out and do work to get that income and not everyone takes advantage of it, but it really should be a factor in negotiations.

Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

Forbes' list of the highest paid hockey players really only has Ovechkin, Crosby and McDavid making huge amounts of money in endorsements:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#69849c1b5871 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#69849c1b5871)

Basically, in order for a significant discount to be based on off-ice earnings Marner would have to establish himself as an MVP level player. Whether or not that's in the cards for him, McDavid's earnings suggest that it would be in the cards wherever Marner would play so I doubt a good agent would take it seriously as a factor in negotiations with the Leafs.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: louisstamos on April 30, 2019, 07:35:10 PM
For all the talk about the Toronto tax, how many Toronto-centric ads does Steven Stamkos have.  Prior to this year, how many did John Tavares have?

As much as the tax comes into play I think for lesser players, Marner is making a killing in endorsements that he just wouldn't be getting if he was playing in Carolina or Florida or even places like Chicago/New York/etc.  That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.  Yes, Marner still has to go out and do work to get that income and not everyone takes advantage of it, but it really should be a factor in negotiations.

Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

Forbes' list of the highest paid hockey players really only has Ovechkin, Crosby and McDavid making huge amounts of money in endorsements:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#69849c1b5871 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#69849c1b5871)

Basically, in order for a significant discount to be based on off-ice earnings Marner would have to establish himself as an MVP level player. Whether or not that's in the cards for him, McDavid's earnings suggest that it would be in the cards wherever Marner would play so I doubt a good agent would take it seriously as a factor in negotiations with the Leafs.

It may not be the same level of money on the other's endorsements, but I imagine Mitch Marner is definitely the leader on the Leafs.  He has Intact Insurance, Mastercard, and Apple (I guess via Auston Matthews).  He also has a deal with True Hockey to sell his signature stick.  He's certainly making a *bit* of coin from the outside, even if it's mostly from local advertising.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on April 30, 2019, 07:57:13 PM
It could be adding up to a million plus a year, he wouldn't make anything like that in a non Canadian marketplace.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 30, 2019, 08:06:40 PM
Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

He's been in a ton this season, more than I've seen a Leaf in a long time. He's also been doing a bunch of social media ads as well.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on May 01, 2019, 01:28:57 AM
Admittedly I'm not the consumer of advertising I used to be but is Marner really in a ton of ad campaigns? Is Tavares?

He's been in a ton this season, more than I've seen a Leaf in a long time. He's also been doing a bunch of social media ads as well.

Marner has his face on cans of red bull and life size,almost, cutouts of him in my local grocery store
 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 01, 2019, 08:35:23 AM
Marner has his face on cans of red bull and life size,almost, cutouts of him in my local grocery store

Even just looking at his last few instragram posts he's done ads for: Visa, Azzaro Parfums, Good Food, Intact, Red Bull, Beats by Dre, Call of Duty/PS4, Chevrolet, True Hockey.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 01, 2019, 08:39:49 AM
That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 01, 2019, 10:24:49 AM
That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

Maybe they can sneak that one by Ferris.  "OK guys, here's your $12M contract"*.  They sign.

* - contract stipulates Canadian dollars.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on May 01, 2019, 03:21:16 PM
That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

This coupled with endorsements is why Iíd hold firm at 9.5. Thatís 12.8 Canadian, probably close to 14 when you factor in endorsements.

Thatís life changing money, grandkids life changing money and at a certain point, if he wants to be here he has a decision to make.

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on May 01, 2019, 03:31:34 PM
I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

Because it doesn't matter, It's still the same amount of money.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 01, 2019, 03:33:12 PM
That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

This coupled with endorsements is why Iíd hold firm at 9.5. Thatís 12.8 Canadian, probably close to 14 when you factor in endorsements.

Thatís life changing money, grandkids life changing money and at a certain point, if he wants to be here he has a decision to make.

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.

That's not how it works though.  The players association will always look to boost salary for all members so they wouldn't want guys taking less because they can make up the difference in endorsements.  While 9.5 may seem reasonable to you or me, Paul doesn't think so.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 01, 2019, 03:45:47 PM
I joined in on the jokes at first too, but constantly bringing up Marner's dad is getting about as tiresome as all the stuff about Nylander's dad. Neither was/will be the one driving this bus.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 01, 2019, 03:46:17 PM

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.
Another view from Gino Reda who was just on Tsn radio. This is the bases of what he said...
Leafs offer Marner say 10 mill max, or whatever the reasonable number is and not budge. If Marner presents the Leafs with an offer sheet of 11.5 or whatever, the Leafs say we want you back but we can only sign you for 10mill per. They would then tell him that we simply can't match it even though you're absolutely our plan A.  They go on to say if that's what it's going to take, we wish you nothing but the best and suggest you sign it because it is a great offer. He figures the Marner camp will be in shock because they think they have the Leafs over the barrel but the fact is, they don't. Key thing is Marner wants to play here and play with JT. Who wouldn't. If Marner signs it, take the 4 1sts and sign a UFA like Panarin or a D man or whoever. The key here is the Leafs doing their due diligence to have a plan in place that they can go to as soon as the Marner camp decides to move on. That's the coles notes version and I have to say listening to him talk, it's def an option. It may cost you a very good player but you should be able to get a very good player through the free agent way and it would also give you a lot of flexibility moving forward as the guy coming in will in all likelihood cost significantly less then the Marner ask.
Option A...sign Marner for 11.5 mill
Option B...sign Panarin/Skinner(whoever) or a couple for D men for 9.5 or less and get 4 1st round picks
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on May 01, 2019, 05:33:00 PM
That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

This coupled with endorsements is why Iíd hold firm at 9.5. Thatís 12.8 Canadian, probably close to 14 when you factor in endorsements.

Thatís life changing money, grandkids life changing money and at a certain point, if he wants to be here he has a decision to make.

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.

That's not how it works though.  The players association will always look to boost salary for all members so they wouldn't want guys taking less because they can make up the difference in endorsements.  While 9.5 may seem reasonable to you or me, Paul doesn't think so.

Of course, I'm talking from a team perspective.

I love Marner and want him to get paid handsomely, but it's the team I support.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 01, 2019, 06:13:41 PM
Option A...sign Marner for 11.5 mill
Option B...sign Panarin/Skinner(whoever) or a couple for D men for 9.5 or less and get 4 1st round picks

Option B's the better path, clearly. It's a legit option, affording management lots of ways to improve the team, and I hope it's on the table should Marner's contract demands exceed a $9.5m AAV.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 01, 2019, 06:19:13 PM
This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 01, 2019, 06:38:27 PM
This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.


Leafs need to give a firm deadline. June 1st or we start making contingency plans including trading you at the draft.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 01, 2019, 06:40:55 PM
This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.

I would think Option B would require the Leafs being willing to set and hold to an internal deadline. If Marner's camp doesn't agree on something around the draft, Dubas would have to start filling up their dance card for the interview period in order to find another place to spend $10m and with the expectation of later trading Marner's rights or declining to match an offer.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Andy on May 01, 2019, 06:47:32 PM
This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.

I wonder, then, in that scenario if the Leafs wouldn't just approach Columbus and try to work out a deal involving Marner and the acquisition of Panarin's rights. They could offer him an 8-year max deal and pry out some other assets (Anderson + a young D or 1st, etc). That way at least they'd have the luxury of getting Panarin on board before trading Marner and Columbus, who'd probably lose Panarin for nothing otherwise, essentially gets Marner for the remaining pieces.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 01, 2019, 06:50:44 PM
I don't see the Leafs trading Marner. If he's leaving it's through an offer sheet only. That way they can at least frame it as Marner wanted to leave and he choose money over the team. Imagine the uproar if the Leafs dealt him and he signed a $9.5mil contract his new team?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Andy on May 01, 2019, 06:54:02 PM
I don't see the Leafs trading Marner. If he's leaving it's through an offer sheet only. That way they can at least frame it as Marner wanted to leave and he choose money over the team. Imagine the uproar if the Leafs dealt him and he signed a $9.5mil contract his new team?

Oh, absolutely. But if he's not signing for anything less than 11.5 then I'm not sure what other avenue they're going to take.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 01, 2019, 07:17:37 PM
I don't see the Leafs trading Marner. If he's leaving it's through an offer sheet only. That way they can at least frame it as Marner wanted to leave and he choose money over the team. Imagine the uproar if the Leafs dealt him and he signed a $9.5mil contract his new team?

It seems unlikely that he'd do that though if money is such a sticking point here.

Honestly, I don't think they can let him go in anyway other than a trade. Putting on hold the Panarin/Karlsson fantasy for a moment, you'd be losing an incredibly valuable part of the team for not a single defined asset and pieces that probably wouldn't help the club for 5-6 years. Heading into a year where it's supposedly make or break to advance in the playoffs I just don't see a chance where that's a net positive.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 01, 2019, 07:30:30 PM
This issue with option B that's been brought up before is that it requires the timing of everything to go exactly Toronto's way. Marner needs to get offer-sheeted pretty much right away and the Leafs need to hope a Karlsson or Panarin don't already have agreements from the interview period already lined up. Granted, even if those guys are off the table you can still do a lot of good with $10mil of cap space and four 1st round draft picks.

I really hope it doesn't come to that, but if Marner is dead set on $11-11.5mil, then like others have said it's at least something that needs to be considered.


Leafs need to give a firm deadline. June 1st or we start making contingency plans including trading you at the draft.
That's what I think is the best route. Whenever that internal deadline will be. Dubas can't afford to wait like he did with Nylander. Not that we know for sure but it appears that they had no backup plan with him. Leafs need to be totally prepared for any scenario and that would include trading him if need be.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 01, 2019, 07:40:48 PM

It's not really a firm deadline if it's "If you don't sign by a particular date, we start considering our options". The Leafs should always be considering their options and an artificial deadline only hurts the Leafs' ability to come to a mutually beneficially agreement here.

For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 01, 2019, 08:52:10 PM

It's not really a firm deadline if it's "If you don't sign by a particular date, we start considering our options". The Leafs should always be considering their options and an artificial deadline only hurts the Leafs' ability to come to a mutually beneficially agreement here.

For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.
You def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum. As for the Nylander deal. Money wise yes but the timing really didn't end up being fine. He missed 2 months and never got his game  together. Total waste of a year. Leafs didn't appear to have a plan B in his situation. They absolutely need one with Marner. Willy should be fine next season.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on May 01, 2019, 10:49:34 PM
You're better off cutting all the dead wood and going with contingency players/Marlies once Marner signs for one year and load up again in 20/21 when Marleau comes off the books.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 01, 2019, 10:54:14 PM
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on May 01, 2019, 11:00:57 PM

I'm going to miss Bob when he retires. He's one of the only reasonable people left on the networks.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 02, 2019, 12:54:33 AM

I'm going to miss Bob when he retires. He's one of the only reasonable people left on the networks.
Bob is the absolute best.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on May 02, 2019, 12:57:21 AM
That really has to offset an awful lot of the lost income from taxation.

I'm surprised living in Canada all-year round and getting paid in US money doesn't get nearly as much talk as the taxation thing does. Right now $10mil USD is almost $13.4mil CAD. And it doesn't really feel like that's going to even up anytime soon.

This coupled with endorsements is why Iíd hold firm at 9.5. Thatís 12.8 Canadian, probably close to 14 when you factor in endorsements.

Thatís life changing money, grandkids life changing money and at a certain point, if he wants to be here he has a decision to make.

I would be 100% okay if we come out of this summer with 4 first round picks and a guy like Panarin as a UFA.

That's not how it works though.  The players association will always look to boost salary for all members so they wouldn't want guys taking less because they can make up the difference in endorsements.  While 9.5 may seem reasonable to you or me, Paul doesn't think so.

I don't recall them saying much about guys taking less in low Tax States?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 02, 2019, 07:16:04 AM

I don't think that what the PA says to agents or players concerning deals is something we'd hear regardless but with that said the idea that the PA wants guys to take one number or another doesn't really make a ton of sense in a league where players get a fixed % of revenue. It's not a rising tide lifts all boats sort of situation, if a top tier player gets 12 million vs. 9, that just means some other guy gets less or everyone gets less of the escrow money back.

It's probably safe to say that the PA doesn't want something one player does to undercut what another player might ask for but as we've seen that's not really the case. Stamkos taking his team friendly deal didn't mean Tavares couldn't ask for more or McDavid's deal didn't seem to restrict what Matthews asked for at all. It's like I said during the Nylander negotiations when the Pastrnak deal was used as a comparable, contracts don't get set according to any one point of comparison so the PA probably doesn't care much about individual deals.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 02, 2019, 07:43:25 AM

I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 02, 2019, 08:43:47 AM
I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And then there's https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nikita-zaitsev and https://www.capfriendly.com/players/patrick-marleau.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 02, 2019, 09:04:54 AM

It's not really a firm deadline if it's "If you don't sign by a particular date, we start considering our options". The Leafs should always be considering their options and an artificial deadline only hurts the Leafs' ability to come to a mutually beneficially agreement here.

For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.
You def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum. As for the Nylander deal. Money wise yes but the timing really didn't end up being fine. He missed 2 months and never got his game  together. Total waste of a year. Leafs didn't appear to have a plan B in his situation. They absolutely need one with Marner. Willy should be fine next season.

The Leafs camp has to let the Marner camp know early on what their upper limit is.  No back and forth we'll move slightly up you move slightly down garbage.  Lay it out straight, we can afford to give you X amount on the cap for X years.  If Marner thinks he can do better with potential offer sheets, let him explore that, but you also have to let them know the Leafs will be entertaining the options that go along with that.  I don't think any team would go above 10.5M for Marner, so if they think an offer sheet that high is coming all power to them, the Leafs can still a) not match and take the picks b) match the offer sheet and trade him somewhere else to a team he might not want to play for c) match and let him play.  I suggested the June 1st deadline to let them know they're serious and would start to explore trade partners if they can't come to a number that works for both parties.

I believe in option b) the Leafs can't trade Marner for 1 year if they match the offer sheet.

There's always public perception too.  If Marner, good old home-town boy actually *signs* an offer sheet to drive his contract up, I believe they'll be a significant portion of the fanbase that turns on him and his "legacy" as a Leaf becomes tarnished.  Especially if the contract is way out of line with that other wingers with similar stats are getting.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 02, 2019, 09:18:47 AM
You def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum. As for the Nylander deal. Money wise yes but the timing really didn't end up being fine. He missed 2 months and never got his game  together. Total waste of a year. Leafs didn't appear to have a plan B in his situation. They absolutely need one with Marner. Willy should be fine next season.

Unless your "deadline" has actual real consequences then why would you tie your hands by committing yourself to one you didn't need to?

Take the Nylander thing for example. Obviously this season didn't go the way Nylander or the Leafs would have liked but if they'd set an arbitrary deadline and "explored options" then how would things have improved if Nylander stood firm? We have no way of knowing what sort of trade they could have made and as bad as this year was the value of getting Nylander signed was always about more than this year.

The idea that the Leafs had "no plan B" doesn't really hold up. I'm sure the Leafs made discrete inquiries as to their other options, the likelihood is just that no option they had was better than getting Nylander signed to a reasonable long term deal which is what they did.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on May 02, 2019, 09:20:32 AM
I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And then there's https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nikita-zaitsev and https://www.capfriendly.com/players/patrick-marleau.

The strange narrative going around is that Dubas "caves" in negotiations while Lou was some kind of hard ass.

Nylander called at the last minute and took the deal that was on the table while Marleau demanded a 3rd year (with a high AAV on a 35+ contract with an NMC) or he wasn't going to sign and Lou decided to give in and sign for Zaitsev 7 years after one year in the league.

And now they have 10.75M tied up in a below average 3rd liner and #4D as a result of Lou caving to demands. If Dubas did cave, what is the impact? 1.5M between Matthews and Nylander combined?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on May 02, 2019, 09:21:58 AM
I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And even if those deals were a significant discount at the time, if you turn around and blow the savings on Marleau and Zaitsev, then what was good were they?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 02, 2019, 09:32:22 AM
I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And then there's https://www.capfriendly.com/players/nikita-zaitsev and https://www.capfriendly.com/players/patrick-marleau.

The strange narrative going around is that Dubas "caves" in negotiations while Lou was some kind of hard ass.

Nylander called at the last minute and took the deal that was on the table while Marleau demanded a 3rd year (with a high AAV on a 35+ contract with an NMC) or he wasn't going to sign and Lou decided to give in and sign for Zaitsev 7 years after one year in the league.

And now they have 10.75M tied up in a below average 3rd liner and #4D as a result of Lou caving to demands. If Dubas did cave, what is the impact? 1.5M between Matthews and Nylander combined?

One has decades of relationships with people in the league and in media while the other has been painted as an upstart Doogie Howser, both intersecting in the eye of the analytics storm where the whole community has publicly polarized to Eyeballs vs Spreadsheets. This is just the lazy narrative that fits that worldview.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 02, 2019, 09:48:18 AM
Speaking of narratives:
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on May 02, 2019, 10:06:49 AM
I know I've asked this before but what deal did Lamoriello negotiate here that make people think he's some sort of master negotiator? The Kadri and Rielly deals are good deals he should get credit for but they're not deals where he got guys to sign at a significant discount off a fair market rate. He gave six years and a 4.5 million aav to a C who'd scored 83 points total in his previous two seasons and 5 million to an offensive defenseman who scored 36 points.

Those two deals, along with the Andersen one, are examples of recognizing players' potential for growth, not outfoxing agents. Beyond those deals he mainly seemed to just pay the market rate.

And even if those deals were a significant discount at the time, if you turn around and blow the savings on Marleau and Zaitsev, then what was good were they?

Lou is getting way too much credit in the media now. "Do you think Babcock would say this if Lou were in charge?" "Do you think the RFAs would play hardball with Lou?"

Does the media think Lou wouldn't have been stuck in protracted negotiations because he's some sort of mob boss? It's nonsensical. And lately they've brought up Mike not winning anything for years. Well there was a span where Chicago/LA/Pittsburgh made up the bulk of wins for years. From 2009-2018 the only other teams beyond Chicago/LA/Pitt who won multiple cups were Boston in 2011 & Washington in 2018. I think be definition not many coaches will have won anything for a substantial amount of time. And to top it off Lou's only successes and Cups were on the back of one of the greatest goaltenders of all time.

Lou's become so incredibly overrated it's ridiculous.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Kaberle15 on May 02, 2019, 10:06:56 AM
His market value is $9.5-10 million x 8. Add on the Dubas Premium and don't be surprised if he gets $11 million x 8.

Dubas premium should be the ability to actually receive 50% of this amazing 9Mi x 8 on the 1st and 2nd years of his contract. That is the Leafs leverage here, but he can not let Marner go the distance and he must be signed by June 1st, otherwise the Leafs hands are tied to sign anyone else.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Kaberle15 on May 02, 2019, 10:18:30 AM
For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.

With the difference the Leafs can not afford the year 1 penalty on the Cap for a late sign, plus how to deal with our RFAs and UFAs without knowing the Marner's Cap hit ?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 02, 2019, 10:23:24 AM
With the difference the Leafs can not afford the year 1 penalty on the Cap for a late sign, plus how to deal with our RFAs and UFAs without knowing the Marner's Cap hit ?

Given that the range between Marner's initial ask and the sort of super-dream Team-friendly deal is probably no more than 2.5 million, that's not a number that should paralyze the Leafs' ability to make decisions on other guys.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on May 02, 2019, 10:38:17 AM
With the difference the Leafs can not afford the year 1 penalty on the Cap for a late sign, plus how to deal with our RFAs and UFAs without knowing the Marner's Cap hit ?

There is no year 1 penalty.

The full year cap hit is higher, but the cap hit for a player is calculated by taking the daily cap hit multiplied by the number of days he on the roster.

When you pro-rate the 1st year full year number to the number of days that the player is on the roster, the actual cap hit for that player is equal to the cap hit for the remaining years.

Look at the accumulated hit for Nylander on this page:

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 02, 2019, 11:38:32 AM

Full: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ocm8uJs2s3U
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 02, 2019, 12:21:50 PM

It's not really a firm deadline if it's "If you don't sign by a particular date, we start considering our options". The Leafs should always be considering their options and an artificial deadline only hurts the Leafs' ability to come to a mutually beneficially agreement here.

For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.
You def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum. As for the Nylander deal. Money wise yes but the timing really didn't end up being fine. He missed 2 months and never got his game  together. Total waste of a year. Leafs didn't appear to have a plan B in his situation. They absolutely need one with Marner. Willy should be fine next season.

If you "def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum," then how on earth do you avoid a Nylander situation? Just sign him to whatever his agent asks for and be done with it?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on May 02, 2019, 12:55:32 PM
Using ultimatum are not good negotiating tactics. Neither is saying: "$10M is the most we can afford, how about you take $9.5M?"
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 02, 2019, 01:16:23 PM
A lot of fans seem to see contract negotiation as a zero sum game. There is already ample evidence that Dubas and Pridham approach these with the goal being mutual benefit.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 02, 2019, 02:09:49 PM
Using ultimatum are not good negotiating tactics. Neither is saying: "$10M is the most we can afford, how about you take $9.5M?"

"We can afford $9M and not a Loonie more. We'd be willing to do a deal of 8, 7, 6, 5, or 3 years. If you won't sign a contract of one of those terms for that cap hit before the draft, we will have to look elsewhere. Our fans want to see some post-season success, and we can't miss out on UFA options."

A lot of fans seem to see contract negotiation as a zero sum game. There is already ample evidence that Dubas and Pridham approach these with the goal being mutual benefit.

"$72M buys you a lot of security and gives us 8 years of a great player. But that not be the way you see your own interests. $27M pays you very well and lets you renegotiate your deal when the league's salary structure has changed, while also giving us your highly valued services for 3 runs at the Cup. Choose which of these options that are in our interest is most in your own interest."
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 02, 2019, 02:26:51 PM

It's not really a firm deadline if it's "If you don't sign by a particular date, we start considering our options". The Leafs should always be considering their options and an artificial deadline only hurts the Leafs' ability to come to a mutually beneficially agreement here.

For all the comparing the situation to Nylander, the Nylander deal ended up being fine.
You def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum. As for the Nylander deal. Money wise yes but the timing really didn't end up being fine. He missed 2 months and never got his game  together. Total waste of a year. Leafs didn't appear to have a plan B in his situation. They absolutely need one with Marner. Willy should be fine next season.

If you "def don't want to give Marner an ultimatum," then how on earth do you avoid a Nylander situation? Just sign him to whatever his agent asks for and be done with it?
Ultimatum in my eyes is coming across as being cold. Take it or f-off kind of thing. I probably used the wrong word. You def have to have a deadline and you let them know it, but you also have to keep it friendly, right? You don't want a pissing contest.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on May 02, 2019, 02:29:54 PM
So you're suggesting the Leafs offer $9M/year and then Mitch gets to pick how many years? That's bizarre. Why would the AAV of a 3-year contract be the same as an 8-year contract? One is buying UFA years; the other is not.

Your first example is an ultimatum.

Your second example doesn't consider Marner's interests fairly. It says the club's interests are 1st, then his are second. Deals should be fair; ideally, they're equally beneficial. In each example, you're dictating terms, and this will not go over well.

This is not even addressing the fact that saying they can afford $9M and not a loonie more is a lie.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on May 02, 2019, 03:34:00 PM
With the difference the Leafs can not afford the year 1 penalty on the Cap for a late sign, plus how to deal with our RFAs and UFAs without knowing the Marner's Cap hit ?

Given that the range between Marner's initial ask and the sort of super-dream Team-friendly deal is probably no more than 2.5 million, that's not a number that should paralyze the Leafs' ability to make decisions on other guys.

They will certainly be able to make some decisions, but 2.5 million one way or the other is likely to have a significant effect. Depending on the Marleau factor, it may mean the difference between Kapanen and/or Johnsson fitting on the team, for instance, which will probably mean thinking about trades and UFAs to fill in for them.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on May 02, 2019, 03:35:31 PM
A lot of fans seem to see contract negotiation as a zero sum game. There is already ample evidence that Dubas and Pridham approach these with the goal being mutual benefit.

Thatís nice spin but it is zero sum: more money for X means less for Y.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 02, 2019, 03:47:43 PM
So you're suggesting the Leafs offer $9M/year and then Mitch gets to pick how many years? That's bizarre. Why would the AAV of a 3-year contract be the same as an 8-year contract? One is buying UFA years; the other is not.

Your first example is an ultimatum.

Your second example doesn't consider Marner's interests fairly. It says the club's interests are 1st, then his are second. Deals should be fair; ideally, they're equally beneficial. In each example, you're dictating terms, and this will not go over well.

This is not even addressing the fact that saying they can afford $9M and not a loonie more is a lie.


Unless you have a way to disappear Marleau's contract, the Leafs can't afford to pay Marner more than $9M and get any sort of replacement for Gardiner. From their perspective, $9M is the richest AAV that can be devoted to Marner in 2019-20.

Whether that's the first year of a long-term deal (buying UFA years), the first year of a Matthews-esque middle-termer (buying few to no UFA years), or a bridge (leading into another, bigger RFA deal) doesn't really make much difference to the Leafs given their overwhelming top priority here (have as good or better a team as last year). That's where Marner's side gets to determine what's beneficial to them. Once the AAV goes over $9M in 2019-20, the Leafs aren't as deep, get thinner on defense, etc. and the deal isn't mutually beneficial. 

I think of it in this way, there a several terms: (1) annual cap hit, (2) total payout, (3) length of deal, (4) structure of payout. In the above, the Leafs are dictating one of the terms -- Marner's side the others.

If your position is that, in dictating any of the terms, the Leafs are dictating all of the terms, then you're not describing a negotiation where mutual benefit is an outcome that's on the table. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on May 02, 2019, 04:03:16 PM
Dreger reports: $10.16 x 5 years.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on May 02, 2019, 04:08:44 PM
...
If your position is that, in dictating any of the terms, the Leafs are dictating all of the terms, then you're not describing a negotiation where mutual benefit is an outcome that's on the table.

I'm definitely not saying that. There will definitely be negotiating tactics used. After all, the Leafs will want what's best for them and Marner will want what's best for him. What I'm saying is that neither should be dictating anything; that's not good faith negotiating.

You're including a false premise in your argument: that the Leafs no.1 priority is to have as good or better a team as last year. And then you're making assumptions based on that, such as Marner signing at $10M will prevent them from satisfying this assumed priority. I could then infer an assumption that the alternative (say, 1st round draft picks and a top free agent [Panarin?]) achieves that priority. But if it does, then an assumption that the draft picks (futures) is acceptable completely falsifies the original premise. Because if they'd accept futures + a lesser player (because banking on Panarin is a pretty risky gamble), then why wouldn't they just pay Marner his money and accept the slight dip in other talent for a year?

The cap crunch is primarily just for the upcoming year. Then Marleau is off the books.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on May 02, 2019, 04:21:39 PM
Dreger reports: $10.16 x 5 years.

What is his report? that it is done? or just speculating?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 02, 2019, 04:39:33 PM
You're including a false premise in your argument: that the Leafs no.1 priority is to have as good or better a team as last year.

There's no way the Leafs' top priority heading into next season isn't to get beyond the first round.

And then you're making assumptions based on that, such as Marner signing at $10M will prevent them from satisfying this assumed priority.

I should've clarified: I'm sure the number isn't exactly $9M. But I'm sure there's a number and that Dubas & c. know what it is. And I think there's a very good chance it's a lot less (relative to the cap space they have available to play with) than what Marner's side wants it to be.

It's not "bad faith" in negotiating to say what your budget is!



 I could then infer an assumption that the alternative (say, 1st round draft picks and a top free agent [Panarin?]) achieves that priority. But if it does, then an assumption that the draft picks (futures) is acceptable completely falsifies the original premise. Because if they'd accept futures + a lesser player (because banking on Panarin is a pretty risky gamble), then why wouldn't they just pay Marner his money and accept the slight dip in other talent for a year?

The idea would be Panarin (or Duchene or Skinner or whoever would run about what they're comfortable paying Marner) + whatever it is Marner's additional ask is (a decent top-four defenseman) would exceed the value of Marner alone. Yes, the compensation for Marner (top prospect, multiple first rounders, whatever) wouldn't pay immediate dividends, but their presence doesn't negate the possibility that the front office might rate Panarin + Stralman more valuable than Marner (let alone those 2 plus whatever the assets recouped in trading Marner might be swapped for).
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 02, 2019, 04:44:48 PM
Dreger reports: $10.16 x 5 years.

What is his report? that it is done? or just speculating?

I can't find any evidence Dreger said something like that, even just speculating. He's still on the $11mil talk.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on May 02, 2019, 05:47:45 PM
A lot of fans seem to see contract negotiation as a zero sum game. There is already ample evidence that Dubas and Pridham approach these with the goal being mutual benefit.

I love you, man.  But that's just a bunch of fluff.  MLSE employs players to play hockey, and they negotiate a contract based on MLSE's benefit.  Contract ask is too much?   Then no deal, no employment.
 
Marner is the asset, and they're leasing an asset with a hopeful return > the alternative player ROI.  There is no mutual benefit, other than Marner being employed and getting a paycheque, albeit a very large one.  MLSE has to consider the cap, their budget, and probable asset performance/risk factors.  Marner just has to go play hockey, and doing that good or not so good, he still gets paid.  That's the interesting thing about player contract negotiations is that there isn't really much risk for the players to consider:  They play, they get paid. 

They're not negotiating a partnership here, where which you could establish that there would be mutual benefit for mutual risk in doing so.  This would be more like if Marner was paid on a "per point" basis.

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 02, 2019, 06:01:33 PM
Dreger reports: $10.16 x 5 years.

What is his report? that it is done? or just speculating?

I can't find any evidence Dreger said something like that, even just speculating. He's still on the $11mil talk.


Fake twitter Dregers perhaps? Just like the Matthews contract we'll know Marner is done when LeafsPR tweets it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 02, 2019, 06:46:11 PM
I love you, man.  But that's just a bunch of fluff.  MLSE employs players to play hockey, and they negotiate a contract based on MLSE's benefit.  Contract ask is too much?   Then no deal, no employment.

I think that what is meant there is that Dubas sees that it's not always in a team's best interest to necessarily get the player signed for the lowest possible price and that some negotiations can create rifts between players and teams that linger beyond when a deal is signed. I'd rather Marner sign a 9.5 million aav deal that he was happy with than a 9 million dollar deal he felt undervalued and disrespected by.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 02, 2019, 09:43:25 PM
I love you, man.  But that's just a bunch of fluff.  MLSE employs players to play hockey, and they negotiate a contract based on MLSE's benefit.  Contract ask is too much?   Then no deal, no employment.

I think that what is meant there is that Dubas sees that it's not always in a team's best interest to necessarily get the player signed for the lowest possible price and that some negotiations can create rifts between players and teams that linger beyond when a deal is signed. I'd rather Marner sign a 9.5 million aav deal that he was happy with than a 9 million dollar deal he felt undervalued and disrespected by.

I don't think anyone advocating exploring trades or drawing lines is imagining a 500k difference between 2 numbers we know, in all likelihood, the Leafs could manage.

Everyone would like to sign Marner for the least amount of money he'd feel is appropriately respectful, but it's possible that that amount (agent's leaking north of $11M) would ruin the team's salary structure ($1.5-2m is a big gap this year). If that's the case, they simply can't afford to sign him without disrespecting him -- so they would sort of have no option but to trade him. That does happen, even with really great RFA players.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on May 02, 2019, 09:55:07 PM
I'd be more inclined to keep The Big Four, and fill out the roster with who cares.  You can always find cheap players in the off season, how often do you find a Mitch Marner?  I'd let Johnsson and Kapanen sit for a year before trading Mitch Marner in a four quarters for a dollar deal. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 02, 2019, 10:15:45 PM
I'd be more inclined to keep The Big Four, and fill out the roster with who cares.  You can always find cheap players in the off season, how often do you find a Mitch Marner?  I'd let Johnsson and Kapanen sit for a year before trading Mitch Marner in a four quarters for a dollar deal. 
Just curious where are Johnsson and Kappy supposed to sit? This will boil down to the ask. If it's Matthews' money and they won't budge, I think the Leafs will have no choice but to explore option B.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 02, 2019, 11:35:52 PM
I don't think anyone advocating exploring trades or drawing lines is imagining a 500k difference...

That's great but I was just illustrating the concept of negotiating for mutual benefit, which the poster I was responding to suggested didn't exist.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 02, 2019, 11:58:33 PM
I love you, man.  But that's just a bunch of fluff.  MLSE employs players to play hockey, and they negotiate a contract based on MLSE's benefit.  Contract ask is too much?   Then no deal, no employment.

I think that what is meant there is that Dubas sees that it's not always in a team's best interest to necessarily get the player signed for the lowest possible price and that some negotiations can create rifts between players and teams that linger beyond when a deal is signed. I'd rather Marner sign a 9.5 million aav deal that he was happy with than a 9 million dollar deal he felt undervalued and disrespected by.

Yeah thatís the long and short of it. You can see it in the Tavares contract that is lower than what he commanded on the market, but structured to leverage MLSEís capabilities to put money in his bank up front, as well as Nylanderís and Matthewsí and all the subsequent cheapo deals in slightly different ways.

Players around the league see the way these negotiations are handled and how the players are treated even if it doesnít work out (Carrick, Leivo). I think that makes a difference.

The salary cap might be a zero sum game in and of itself, but Dubas doesnít approach contract negotiations with each player as one. He wants to sell them on the best carrots possible, not defeat their agents with the heaviest stick.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on May 03, 2019, 10:09:26 AM
Dreger reports: $10.16 x 5 years.

What is his report? that it is done? or just speculating?

I can't find any evidence Dreger said something like that, even just speculating. He's still on the $11mil talk.


Fake twitter Dregers perhaps? Just like the Matthews contract we'll know Marner is done when LeafsPR tweets it.

jk. But Pierre LeBrun reports he consumed a Tim Horton's breakfast wrap this morning.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 03, 2019, 10:09:54 AM
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/beyond-headlines-learned-dubas-nylander-saga/
Quote
Their negotiation on William Nylanderís second contract signals a shift in the way NHL business can be done because of the personalities at the heart of the deal.

[...]

Not only did the Toronto Maple Leafs general manager travel to Switzerland at one point to sit down face-to-face with Nylander, he kept an open dialogue through texts and phone calls.

This was not a negotiation built on threats and false deadlines and F-youís.

[...]

Honest and straightforward. No games.

When it came time to make the deal, Dubas and assistants Brandon Pridham and Laurence Gilman got creative with Nylander and Gross, his representative.

There has never been a contract structured quite like it in NHL history.

The Leafs own tons of salary cap space this season and will start to feel the squeeze in 2019-20, so they came up with a way to pay Nylander heavy right away ó to the tune of more than $17 million by July 1, making him whole and then some for the days missed because of the impasse ó while gaming the cap system and keeping his AAV to $6.96 million for the final five years of the deal.

They also built in some lockout protection with annual signing bonuses of $3.5-million starting in 2020. They added a 10-team trade list in 2023-24, the only year he was eligible to receive such protection.

They basically guaranteed Nylander would walk away feeling good about the contract while keeping him within a range where they believe Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner can still be signed without breaking up the band.

An integrative negotiation is all about understanding what each party values most, and then collaborating on a solution. Something valuable to one party might be a very low impact concession for the other (i.e. no zero-sum). Signing bonuses mean a lot on the financial side to a player, but for the Leafs that's an easy go. It was important to Nylander that he felt valued by the team (same as Marner), and Dubas found ways to do that without necessarily nerfing his cap space: personal visit and conversation in Switzerland, signing bonuses, personally accepting responsibility for not setting up Nylander for success this past season; it all adds up because everyone is watching.

Everyone loved it when Marner sacrificed his body to block two shots to protect that lead. I don't think it's a stretch to say that players around the league took note of how Dubas Steve Rogers'd the grenade at the end of season presser.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 03, 2019, 12:01:38 PM
I don't think anyone advocating exploring trades or drawing lines is imagining a 500k difference...

That's great but I was just illustrating the concept of negotiating for mutual benefit, which the poster I was responding to suggested didn't exist.

I didn't read Frank E's post as rejection of the concept of negotiating to mutual benefit but an expression of its limits. As herman outlines below, there are all sorts of ways one can negotiate for mutual benefit, but I don't see anything in there that's responsive to Frank's point. Yes, you can structure payouts in ways that benefit players. Yes, you can meet with them in ways that signal you value them. Yes, you can conduct yourself in such a way that players and their agents appreciate your willingness, as a manager, to deflect blame from the players or to do right by players whose careers aren't exactly flourishing in your organization.

But eventually that is all "fluff" -- you do eventually get down to the point where the annual compensation is what's left, and, as anyone of us who's negotiated his or her salary knows, all the efforts the employers has made in integrative negotiation and offering things of less value to them than the employee can mean very little indeed when you get down to what you're getting paid to do a job.

The player's side might feel entitled to all those above facets of the deal and its making--which Dubas will almost certainly provide--and an annual payout of, say, $11.616m or some number north of what the team is willing to pay.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 03, 2019, 01:14:32 PM
http://faceoffcircle.ca/2019/05/03/lets-talk-about-mitch-marner/
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on May 03, 2019, 02:17:43 PM
http://faceoffcircle.ca/2019/05/03/lets-talk-about-mitch-marner/

By far and itís not even close, the best piece on the subject so far.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 03, 2019, 03:04:42 PM
http://faceoffcircle.ca/2019/05/03/lets-talk-about-mitch-marner/
By far and itís not even close, the best piece on the subject so far.

Agreed. That 11% is what I was thinking for that last while, and $9.16m or even a slight overpay at $9.516m is where I'd think the Leafs would be comfortable signing him.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 03, 2019, 03:38:08 PM
Meanwhile, in mainstream media...
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on May 03, 2019, 03:49:26 PM
Meanwhile, in mainstream media...

They just can't let go of a good narrative.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: cabber24 on May 03, 2019, 03:56:34 PM
Meanwhile, in mainstream media...

They just can't let go of a good narrative.
No one knew anything during/before/after the Nylander negotiations. The Leafs run a tight ship. All input from the media is speculation. Elliott's speculation during Nylander was crap.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 03, 2019, 03:58:06 PM
It's funny, getting sent back to the OHL was absolutely the best thing for Marner financially and therefore the worst for the Leafs. Odds are he wouldn't have had as good of a rookie season playing for the garbage 15/16 team and his contract year wouldn't have lined up with playing with Tavares. Thanks a lot, Lou.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on May 03, 2019, 04:10:45 PM
It's funny, getting sent back to the OHL was absolutely the best thing for Marner financially and therefore the worst for the Leafs. Odds are he wouldn't have had as good of a rookie season playing for the garbage 15/16 team and his contract year wouldn't have lined up with playing with Tavares. Thanks a lot, Lou.

Yeah, I don't think there was any chance he would have gotten 90 pts in his contract year if he wasn't sent back.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on May 03, 2019, 04:12:12 PM
To bad it is just coming down to such big money and perhaps a little greed. Lets face it when we go to sell our homes we always inflate the price, one reason to negotiate, the other reason is we feel intrinsic personal value as well. Personally if there is an offer sheet we should have a long look at it.
I don't want any one player to put us over a barrel.

We have spoken about it before, if he gets around 9 Million instead of the 11 million he seems to want then he will basically walk away from his endorsement factory.  I worked in that business and I can tell you Mitch is probably making a least a million a year in endorsements. Probably more.  How is he going to bridge that kind of earning in a mid market team?  This has to figure high in his personal decision on just what he will accept.  I want Mitch on the team, Mitch needs to be a Leaf, but greed can't sink either of our ships.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 03, 2019, 04:14:16 PM
It's funny, getting sent back to the OHL was absolutely the best thing for Marner financially and therefore the worst for the Leafs. Odds are he wouldn't have had as good of a rookie season playing for the garbage 15/16 team and his contract year wouldn't have lined up with playing with Tavares. Thanks a lot, Lou.

I dunno, I wouldn't change a single thing about that 15/16 team.  Leafs finished dead last, 1 point worse than the Oilers, who knows if Marner is on that team if we don't get 2 more points that season and never draft Matthews. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on May 03, 2019, 04:14:46 PM
http://faceoffcircle.ca/2019/05/03/lets-talk-about-mitch-marner/
By far and itís not even close, the best piece on the subject so far.

Agreed. That 11% is what I was thinking for that last while, and $9.16m or even a slight overpay at $9.516m is where I'd think the Leafs would be comfortable signing him.

That was a good story, but I think Veillette in his own way kind of cherry picks the arguments for keeping the contract down in singles.  Especially that talk about Marner's "brand" being damaged if he leaves.  I think that's pretty much nonsense.

If you are going to psychologize, I think you can do it on much simpler terms.  Marner led the team in scoring.  He's the only one of the B4 who plays the PK, and he did it well.  By all accounts he is among the top 3 most important forwards on the team.  The other 2 make north of 11.  So to me, the psychological fault line here is the $10M mark.  For better or worse, we live in a base-10 culture and people attach extra significance to being in single vs. double digits.  Marner and his pop may think he should get paid like Tavares and Matthews, but they know that ain't happening.  But what I think they will demand, and eventually get, is something over $10.  Then Marner can be classed with all the other highest paid players in the league ... and the dividing line is 10.  My prediction: he gets 5 years at somewhere between 10.2 and 10.5.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 03, 2019, 04:15:00 PM
The Leafs can be super ruthless about this, and nerf other teams in the process.

If Point, Rantanen, Laine, Connor are all waiting on Marner's deal, how fun would it be to sign on December 1st, 4:52 pm? In the meantime, we spend some cap on Trouba for funsies after spinning off Zaitsev and Brown.

All those other guys are probably coming in 7.5-8M for 8 years to avoid getting Nylandered, and Dubas could just Į\_(ツ)_/Į and point to these new comps.

Will the Leafs be okay without Marner? Not as good as they could be, but yeah, they'll be fine. Call up Bracco if you must and put Nylander on Tavares' wing to throw more cold water on Marner's magic tap-in mystique.

Would Dubas do this? Nope.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 03, 2019, 04:15:06 PM
It's funny, getting sent back to the OHL was absolutely the best thing for Marner financially and therefore the worst for the Leafs. Odds are he wouldn't have had as good of a rookie season playing for the garbage 15/16 team and his contract year wouldn't have lined up with playing with Tavares. Thanks a lot, Lou.

I dunno, I wouldn't change a single thing about that 15/16 team.  Leafs finished dead last, 1 point worse than the Oilers, who knows if Marner is on that team if we don't get 2 more points that season and never draft Matthews. 

I'm not saying we should have, just that in the long-run there's absolutely no denying it benefited Marner immensely.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 03, 2019, 04:24:06 PM
If Point, Rantanen, Laine, Connor are all waiting on Marner's deal,
Contrary to what the media says, why is Marner the main man here. Rantanen and Point had better years. I seriously doubt that they're in the let's see what Marner gets before we do our deal. Rantenan maybe first and say he signs for 9 mill per. Ammo for Dubas isn't it? US dollars are US dollars. It's not the Leafs' fault what they pay in taxes. The salary cap doesn't take taxes into consideration. All teams have 83 mill or whatever it is so.....
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 03, 2019, 04:26:25 PM
If Point, Rantanen, Laine, Connor are all waiting on Marner's deal,
Contrary to what the media says, why is Marner the main man here. Rantanen and Point had better years. I seriously doubt that they're in the let's see what Marner gets before we do our deal. Rantenan maybe first and say he signs for 9 mill per. Ammo for Dubas isn't it? US dollars are US dollars. It's not the Leafs' fault what they pay in taxes. The salary cap doesn't take taxes into consideration. All teams have 83 mill or whatever it is so.....

Nope.  Marner is huge media driven and the others will wait to see what he gets.  They know if Marner's deal is in the double digits they can ask for more.  Special shout out thanks to Dreger, Friedman, Kypreos et all
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 03, 2019, 04:30:07 PM
If Point, Rantanen, Laine, Connor are all waiting on Marner's deal,
Contrary to what the media says, why is Marner the main man here. Rantanen and Point had better years. I seriously doubt that they're in the let's see what Marner gets before we do our deal. Rantenan maybe first and say he signs for 9 mill per. Ammo for Dubas isn't it? US dollars are US dollars. It's not the Leafs' fault what they pay in taxes. The salary cap doesn't take taxes into consideration. All teams have 83 mill or whatever it is so.....

Nope.  Marner is huge media driven and the others will wait to see what he gets.  They know if Marner's deal is in the double digits they can ask for more.  Special shout out thanks to Dreger, Friedman, Kypreos et all
He's definitely been media driven. We will see who goes first in a few months or before.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 03, 2019, 04:36:56 PM
If Point, Rantanen, Laine, Connor are all waiting on Marner's deal,
Contrary to what the media says, why is Marner the main man here. Rantanen and Point had better years. I seriously doubt that they're in the let's see what Marner gets before we do our deal. Rantenan maybe first and say he signs for 9 mill per. Ammo for Dubas isn't it? US dollars are US dollars. It's not the Leafs' fault what they pay in taxes. The salary cap doesn't take taxes into consideration. All teams have 83 mill or whatever it is so.....

Nope.  Marner is huge media driven and the others will wait to see what he gets.  They know if Marner's deal is in the double digits they can ask for more.  Special shout out thanks to Dreger, Friedman, Kypreos et all
He's definitely been media driven. We will see who goes first in a few months or before.

When Darren Ferris came out and said Matthews contract was the best in the league you knew all agents were licking their chops waiting for the Marner deal.  Any of the 2019 crop that signs before Mitch has a stupid agent and is costing them money.  I predict Mitch will be the highest number of any of the guys coming up this summer.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 03, 2019, 07:13:44 PM
But eventually that is all "fluff" -- you do eventually get down to the point where the annual compensation is what's left...

Which is why the entire point I made is how sometimes it can be to a team's advantage to go with a higher AAV than they maybe otherwise could achieve through more combative negotiation.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 03, 2019, 11:28:40 PM

Oh thread
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on May 06, 2019, 08:59:35 AM
Who argued to some degree if Nylander could be trusted to run his own line?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 06, 2019, 09:23:43 AM
Who argued to some degree if Nylander could be trusted to run his own line?

I remember some discussion about paying him as a winger, but his agent maybe arguing he's a centre and should be paid accordingly (Draisaitl comp). He certainly ran a line in his first abbreviated season on a tanking team; he had 6/7/13 in 22 games, which prorates to 48 pts over 82, which would have tied him with the team lead for points (Kadri: 45 pts/76 games), and team lead for goals over Parenteau (probably not, because if Nylander was dishing to Parenteau all season, PA would've had 30+ goals).

Marner doesn't have the centre tag, and really has never been on his own line without significant offensively gifted veterans on his line (JvR, Bozak, Kadri, Tavares). No one on the Leafs right now has had as plum a deployment as Marner (Hyman is a close second as he doesn't get the PP time).
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 27, 2019, 12:12:58 PM
There's a lull now. Raptors off until Thursday, Marlies done, time for a Mitch Marner contract announcement on Tuesday May 28th
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on May 27, 2019, 02:21:43 PM
Day after the last game of the Stanley Cup Finals?
Or Mitchy wears a  Raps jersey with his AAV on the back at the SBA: 10.16
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on May 28, 2019, 02:14:38 PM
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 28, 2019, 02:46:35 PM
Nylander/Gardiner/Babcock/Sparks are definitely getting the blame for this.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 28, 2019, 02:55:30 PM
I really don't see any team giving him over $10.56mil and losing four 1st rounders. Maybe "visiting" other teams will be the reality check that he needs.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 28, 2019, 03:08:35 PM
I really don't see any team giving him over $10.56mil and losing four 1st rounders. Maybe "visiting" other teams will be the reality check that he needs.

One hopes.

If he's set on $10.5m+ and isn't interested in a bridge, I think the Leafs are going to have their hand forced. As Steve Burtch suggested on Twitter, there's no organizational value to the Leafs getting Marner under Kane's current contract and becoming the Hawks of recent years.

What are some similar trades--top-end, unsigned RFA traded--over the last few years? I can only think of the Bruins moving Kessel and Hamilton.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Chris on May 28, 2019, 03:24:10 PM
If he's insistent on ridiculous money yet cannot find an acceptable offer sheet from another team, the Leafs should just let him sit out the year and deal with him once Marleau's contract is off the books. That way they can sign everyone else they need.

I think the team probably takes a step back this upcoming year either way. If they sign Marner for ridiculous money, they lose Kapanen and/or Johnsson, Gardiner, etc, and are unable to replace them with comparable talent. Or, they lose Marner for a year yet keep the supporting cast.

If the Marner talks drag on it impacts the team's ability to deal with their other players effectively. How do you know what to do with Johnsson or Kapanen when you don't have Marner signed.

Maybe things will all work out but I'm starting to get concerned about the ability of this team to make all the pieces fit.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on May 28, 2019, 03:26:43 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

I will say this, though: if Marner leaves you and I and every other Leafs fan will spend the rest of our lives hearing a certain segment of the base complain along the lines of "I can't believe they kept Nylander and let Marner go!"  It may be worth it to overpay Mitch just to avoid that annoyance.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 28, 2019, 03:30:35 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

Usually I'd agree with this idea but it sure seems likely that at least some of the things Dreger has said in regards to Marner has come straight from his agent. So we don't know if this was mouthpiece-Dreger or just speculating-Dreger.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on May 28, 2019, 03:40:11 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

I will say this, though: if Marner leaves you and I and every other Leafs fan will spend the rest of our lives hearing a certain segment of the base complain along the lines of "I can't believe they kept Nylander and let Marner go!"  It may be worth it to overpay Mitch just to avoid that annoyance.

Would they really be wrong? When Nylander got 7, and Matthews got 11.6, someone had to think Marner signing was about to become a problem.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on May 28, 2019, 03:45:37 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

I will say this, though: if Marner leaves you and I and every other Leafs fan will spend the rest of our lives hearing a certain segment of the base complain along the lines of "I can't believe they kept Nylander and let Marner go!"  It may be worth it to overpay Mitch just to avoid that annoyance.

Ya this is all 'Dreger expects' not even 'Dreger heard'.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Can8899 on May 28, 2019, 03:50:41 PM

2 things come to mind here:

1.  I listened from the 5:50 mark on and Dreger absolutely did not say that the negotiations are expected to go past July 1st.  They might go that long but the article suggests that this is Marner Camp's desire.  In no way did Dreger say that Marner is interested in visiting other teams

2.  If in fact this is true, this reeks to me as an agent planting a story to increase the likelihood that the Leafs panic and overpay.

This appears to me at least to be a whole lot of nothing.



Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 28, 2019, 03:55:02 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

I will say this, though: if Marner leaves you and I and every other Leafs fan will spend the rest of our lives hearing a certain segment of the base complain along the lines of "I can't believe they kept Nylander and let Marner go!"  It may be worth it to overpay Mitch just to avoid that annoyance.

Ya this is all 'Dreger expects' not even 'Dreger heard'.

"Dreger [having been in continuous contact with Marner's camp for years now and understanding his agent's view of the player and the market] expects..."

I don't like Dreger, but he does usually seem to have pretty good access to and has been a reliable conduit for the thinking of some the least likable people around the Leafs org (ah, the Nonis years!).
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on May 28, 2019, 05:13:14 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

I will say this, though: if Marner leaves you and I and every other Leafs fan will spend the rest of our lives hearing a certain segment of the base complain along the lines of "I can't believe they kept Nylander and let Marner go!"  It may be worth it to overpay Mitch just to avoid that annoyance.

Ya this is all 'Dreger expects' not even 'Dreger heard'.

"Dreger [having been in continuous contact with Marner's camp for years now and understanding his agent's view of the player and the market] expects..."

I don't like Dreger, but he does usually seem to have pretty good access to and has been a reliable conduit for the thinking of some the least likable people around the Leafs org (ah, the Nonis years!).

Maybe, but my default position is speculo-Dreger and besides Can8899 says that LN may be misreading what he said.

Anyhoo, I'm going to continue to whistle my merry tune until told otherwise by reliable journos.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Chris on May 28, 2019, 05:19:52 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

I will say this, though: if Marner leaves you and I and every other Leafs fan will spend the rest of our lives hearing a certain segment of the base complain along the lines of "I can't believe they kept Nylander and let Marner go!"  It may be worth it to overpay Mitch just to avoid that annoyance.

Ya this is all 'Dreger expects' not even 'Dreger heard'.

"Dreger [having been in continuous contact with Marner's camp for years now and understanding his agent's view of the player and the market] expects..."

I don't like Dreger, but he does usually seem to have pretty good access to and has been a reliable conduit for the thinking of some the least likable people around the Leafs org (ah, the Nonis years!).

Maybe, but my default position is speculo-Dreger and besides Can8899 says that LN may be misreading what he said.

Anyhoo, I'm going to continue to whistle my merry tune until told otherwise by reliable journos.

I just listened to the interview and Dreger never said he "expects" negotiations to go past July 1. He said "if it goes by July 1 then the leverage 100% is on Marner's side." Also never said Marner is expected to visit other teams.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 28, 2019, 06:31:04 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

I will say this, though: if Marner leaves you and I and every other Leafs fan will spend the rest of our lives hearing a certain segment of the base complain along the lines of "I can't believe they kept Nylander and let Marner go!"  It may be worth it to overpay Mitch just to avoid that annoyance.

Ya this is all 'Dreger expects' not even 'Dreger heard'.

"Dreger [having been in continuous contact with Marner's camp for years now and understanding his agent's view of the player and the market] expects..."

I don't like Dreger, but he does usually seem to have pretty good access to and has been a reliable conduit for the thinking of some the least likable people around the Leafs org (ah, the Nonis years!).

Maybe, but my default position is speculo-Dreger and besides Can8899 says that LN may be misreading what he said.

Anyhoo, I'm going to continue to whistle my merry tune until told otherwise by reliable journos.

I just listened to the interview and Dreger never said he "expects" negotiations to go past July 1. He said "if it goes by July 1 then the leverage 100% is on Marner's side." Also never said Marner is expected to visit other teams.


If it goes by July 1 and nobody offers Marner > $10.5 how is leverage 100% in Marners camp?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 28, 2019, 06:42:21 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

I will say this, though: if Marner leaves you and I and every other Leafs fan will spend the rest of our lives hearing a certain segment of the base complain along the lines of "I can't believe they kept Nylander and let Marner go!"  It may be worth it to overpay Mitch just to avoid that annoyance.

Ya this is all 'Dreger expects' not even 'Dreger heard'.

"Dreger [having been in continuous contact with Marner's camp for years now and understanding his agent's view of the player and the market] expects..."

I don't like Dreger, but he does usually seem to have pretty good access to and has been a reliable conduit for the thinking of some the least likable people around the Leafs org (ah, the Nonis years!).

Maybe, but my default position is speculo-Dreger and besides Can8899 says that LN may be misreading what he said.

Anyhoo, I'm going to continue to whistle my merry tune until told otherwise by reliable journos.

I just listened to the interview and Dreger never said he "expects" negotiations to go past July 1. He said "if it goes by July 1 then the leverage 100% is on Marner's side." Also never said Marner is expected to visit other teams.


I just listened to the clip, he doesn't say "expects" using that work specifically but he absolutely says the Marner camp is looking towards July 1st and beyond July 1st and he'd "be shocked" if Marner isn't on a plane June 26th visiting other teams. So yeah in essence the article correctly spews Dreger's idiotic ramblings
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 28, 2019, 06:43:27 PM
1.  I listened from the 5:50 mark on and Dreger absolutely did not say that the negotiations are expected to go past July 1st.  They might go that long but the article suggests that this is Marner Camp's desire.  In no way did Dreger say that Marner is interested in visiting other teams

Dreger said he believes the Marner camp is looking at July 1st or beyond... and that he'd be shocked if Marner's reps weren't visiting other cities starting June 26th.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 28, 2019, 06:46:35 PM
This info is all from Dreger, so I wouldn't get too worked up about it just yet.

I will say this, though: if Marner leaves you and I and every other Leafs fan will spend the rest of our lives hearing a certain segment of the base complain along the lines of "I can't believe they kept Nylander and let Marner go!"  It may be worth it to overpay Mitch just to avoid that annoyance.

Ya this is all 'Dreger expects' not even 'Dreger heard'.

"Dreger [having been in continuous contact with Marner's camp for years now and understanding his agent's view of the player and the market] expects..."

I don't like Dreger, but he does usually seem to have pretty good access to and has been a reliable conduit for the thinking of some the least likable people around the Leafs org (ah, the Nonis years!).

Maybe, but my default position is speculo-Dreger and besides Can8899 says that LN may be misreading what he said.

Anyhoo, I'm going to continue to whistle my merry tune until told otherwise by reliable journos.

I just listened to the interview and Dreger never said he "expects" negotiations to go past July 1. He said "if it goes by July 1 then the leverage 100% is on Marner's side." Also never said Marner is expected to visit other teams.


If it goes by July 1 and nobody offers Marner > $10.5 how is leverage 100% in Marners camp?
because......well because.
We know the Leafs will match up to that 10.5 so there is absolutely no pressure on the Leafs. If someone goes under it, they match, over as in Matthews money and they decide. I think he's gone at that price. I really don't see anyone offering up 4 1st rounders for him, I just don't see it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 28, 2019, 07:00:31 PM
So, let's say Leafs won't go over $10 and Marner's camp gets 0 offers that are any better? Does this have the potential to be another December 1st deal?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 28, 2019, 07:07:29 PM
So, let's say Leafs won't go over $10 and Marner's camp gets 0 offers that are any better? Does this have the potential to be another December 1st deal?
I doubt it. I think if a deal isn't done by training camp or shortly after, I think this time around the Leafs will let him sit the whole year. They also may have an internal time frame set that he needs to sign by. The Leafs have other players to sign as well so if Marner doesn't sign, they know Marleau comes off the books next year so they may sign Kappy, Johnsson and say a D man. There's no doubt in my mind that there is a backup plan in place so i don't see the Nylander scenario repeating.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 28, 2019, 07:36:03 PM
So, let's say Leafs won't go over $10 and Marner's camp gets 0 offers that are any better? Does this have the potential to be another December 1st deal?

It's certainly possible. Or, more to the point, as with Nylander it's in the best interest of the Leafs to not close the door on any solution to a contract impasse.

But the people freaking out about this need to remember that no matter what the negotiating positions are and no matter what Marner's true intentions are about where he might be willing to play or what he'll accept there is going to be a lot of posturing done, some of it via the media, as both sides try to get the best deal they can. Nobody should pull their hair out over anything until it actually happens.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 28, 2019, 08:03:50 PM
So, let's say Leafs won't go over $10 and Marner's camp gets 0 offers that are any better? Does this have the potential to be another December 1st deal?

It's certainly possible. Or, more to the point, as with Nylander it's in the best interest of the Leafs to not close the door on any solution to a contract impasse.

But the people freaking out about this need to remember that no matter what the negotiating positions are and no matter what Marner's true intentions are about where he might be willing to play or what he'll accept there is going to be a lot of posturing done, some of it via the media, as both sides try to get the best deal they can. Nobody should pull their hair out over anything until it actually happens.


I feel you.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on May 28, 2019, 08:04:28 PM
My issue with his camp using the media as a mouth piece as it begins to look a lot like bad faith negotiating.

I believe Dubas when he says he is ultimately looking for a fair deal that works for both parties.

The media posturing has to be taken with a pinch of salt of course, but it does sour me a little.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Chris on May 28, 2019, 08:14:59 PM
I just listened to the clip, he doesn't say "expects" using that work specifically but he absolutely says the Marner camp is looking towards July 1st and beyond July 1st and he'd "be shocked" if Marner isn't on a plane June 26th visiting other teams. So yeah in essence the article correctly spews Dreger's idiotic ramblings
We must be listening to different interviews.

Edit to add - yes, there are at least 2 different interviews out there and in one of them, he says what you have quoted. Not in the other, though.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 28, 2019, 08:53:51 PM
My issue with his camp using the media as a mouth piece as it begins to look a lot like bad faith negotiating.

Honestly, at this point if an agent didn't try to negotiate with the Leafs through the media I'd think he wasn't really doing his job.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 29, 2019, 08:15:59 AM
My issue with his camp using the media as a mouth piece as it begins to look a lot like bad faith negotiating.

Honestly, at this point if an agent didn't try to negotiate with the Leafs through the media I'd think he wasn't really doing his job.

I don't really recall Matthews or Nylander's agents ever going this route, at least not to this extent. And they both still got fair deals for their clients.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on May 29, 2019, 08:19:11 AM
So, let's say Leafs won't go over $10 and Marner's camp gets 0 offers that are any better? Does this have the potential to be another December 1st deal?

It's certainly possible. Or, more to the point, as with Nylander it's in the best interest of the Leafs to not close the door on any solution to a contract impasse.

But the people freaking out about this need to remember that no matter what the negotiating positions are and no matter what Marner's true intentions are about where he might be willing to play or what he'll accept there is going to be a lot of posturing done, some of it via the media, as both sides try to get the best deal they can. Nobody should pull their hair out over anything until it actually happens.

I definitely agree that everyoneís just speculating. We donít know Marnerís or Dubasís intentions.

But I donít believe it will go past the beginning of the season due to the way first-year cap hits are calculated on mid-season signings.  That first year cap hit increases every day into the season so delaying will just take away dollars under the cap that the leafs need to sign him.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 29, 2019, 08:35:07 AM
But I donít believe it will go past the beginning of the season due to the way first-year cap hits are calculated on mid-season signings.  That first year cap hit increases every day into the season so delaying will just take away dollars under the cap that the leafs need to sign him.

This has been something that's been discussed before, and even I didn't quite get it at first, but a player who signs after the season starts only has an artificially high AAV. On a per-day basis (which is how the cap is calculated) it's the same as the rest of his contracts AAV.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 29, 2019, 08:35:55 AM
My issue with his camp using the media as a mouth piece as it begins to look a lot like bad faith negotiating.

Honestly, at this point if an agent didn't try to negotiate with the Leafs through the media I'd think he wasn't really doing his job.

I don't really recall Matthews or Nylander's agents ever going this route, at least not to this extent. And they both still got fair deals for their clients.

I literally never recall hearing Matthews or Nylander's agents give interviews and aside from the rumblings that Nylander was looking for $8.5M, there was nothing like what we're seeing from the Marner camp.  The Matthews extension was handled as quietly as possible and it literally was just announced without much fan fair leading up to it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 29, 2019, 10:28:51 AM
My issue with his camp using the media as a mouth piece as it begins to look a lot like bad faith negotiating.

Honestly, at this point if an agent didn't try to negotiate with the Leafs through the media I'd think he wasn't really doing his job.

I don't really recall Matthews or Nylander's agents ever going this route, at least not to this extent. And they both still got fair deals for their clients.

Sorta makes me wonder if the agent isn't working the media in the hopes of creating a new perception of what constitutes a "fair deal."

 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 29, 2019, 10:58:46 AM
Marner's team loves drafting on other Leafs news/signings.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: RedLeaf on May 29, 2019, 11:32:36 AM
I'm wondering if anyone on this board thinks Marner will be playing with a different team, other than the Leafs next season?

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 29, 2019, 12:09:12 PM
I'm wondering if anyone on this board thinks Marner will be playing with a different team, other than the Leafs next season?

I don't think him playing with a different team is the most likely outcome if that's what you're asking, but I certainly think there's a chance of it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Dappleganger on May 29, 2019, 12:17:34 PM
I'm wondering if anyone on this board thinks Marner will be playing with a different team, other than the Leafs next season?

I'd peg it very low, less than 5% if even that high. Everything points against it.

First, a team must be willing to give up 4 firsts which is a lot to give up for Marner.

Second, Leafs can match any offer which they most certainly would.

Third, Marner must be willing to go, which if we're being honest, he does seem to like being a Leaf and likes his teammates.

The teams that will be able to offer $10m+ will not be in a position to contend which I think will also be a consideration. Leafs are a contender now.

The NHL restricted free agent system is extremely restrictive and non-competitive.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 29, 2019, 12:31:58 PM
I'm wondering if anyone on this board thinks Marner will be playing with a different team, other than the Leafs next season?

I'd peg it very low, less than 5% if even that high. Everything points against it.

First, a team must be willing to give up 4 firsts which is a lot to give up for Marner.

Second, Leafs can match any offer which they most certainly would.

Third, Marner must be willing to go, which if we're being honest, he does seem to like being a Leaf and likes his teammates.

The teams that will be able to offer $10m+ will not be in a position to contend which I think will also be a consideration. Leafs are a contender now.

The NHL restricted free agent system is extremely restrictive and non-competitive.

I'd say 5% chance via offer-sheet, for the reasons you list. Highly unlikely the Leafs get forced into a corner.

But an offer sheet isn't the only way he isn't on the Leafs next season. If his side is serious about $10m+, the Leafs could start fielding offers from teams that'd be willing to go that distance.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 29, 2019, 12:46:00 PM
Can Offer Sheet max:Contending NowRaw* Cap Space for 11M
Anaheim Ducks
Arizona Coyotes
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vancouver Canucks
Vegas Golden Knights
Washington Capitals
Winnipeg Jets
Boston Bruins
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vegas Golden Knights
Washington Capitals
Winnipeg Jets
Boston Bruins
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Florida Panthers
Montreal Canadiens
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets

* cap space today assuming Marner gets 11M and the rest of the roster requirement after is filled at league minimum. Does not account for LTIR or upcoming RFA signings or obvious trades/buyouts etc.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on May 29, 2019, 01:06:03 PM
Can Offer Sheet max:Contending NowRaw* Cap Space for 11M
Anaheim Ducks
Arizona Coyotes
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Chicago Blackhawks
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Detroit Red Wings
Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers
Los Angeles Kings
Minnesota Wild
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vancouver Canucks
Vegas Golden Knights
Washington Capitals
Winnipeg Jets
Boston Bruins
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Edmonton Oilers
Florida Panthers
Montreal Canadiens
Nashville Predators
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Tampa Bay Lightning
Vegas Golden Knights
Washington Capitals
Winnipeg Jets
Boston Bruins
Calgary Flames
Carolina Hurricanes
Colorado Avalanche
Columbus Blue Jackets
Dallas Stars
Florida Panthers
Montreal Canadiens
New York Islanders
Philadelphia Flyers
San Jose Sharks
St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets

* cap space today assuming Marner gets 11M and the rest of the roster requirement after is filled at league minimum. Does not account for LTIR or upcoming RFA signings or obvious trades/buyouts etc.

That's really disingenuous though. No chance in hell a team like Tampa can swing this.

*Edit: Maybe I'm not reading this right.  Can offer sheet max meaning they can afford $10.55+ or just have 4 1st's to give up?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 29, 2019, 01:13:47 PM
*Edit: Maybe I'm not reading this right.  Can offer sheet max meaning they can afford $10.55+ or just have 4 1st's to give up?

All 30 other teams are listed... so I'm assuming that just means which teams have the picks.

Although the Sharks don't have their 1st rounder in 2020 so they're out. Dallas and Columbus could potentially lose theirs if they re-sign Zuccarello and Duchene.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on May 29, 2019, 01:22:29 PM
But I donít believe it will go past the beginning of the season due to the way first-year cap hits are calculated on mid-season signings.  That first year cap hit increases every day into the season so delaying will just take away dollars under the cap that the leafs need to sign him.

This has been something that's been discussed before, and even I didn't quite get it at first, but a player who signs after the season starts only has an artificially high AAV. On a per-day basis (which is how the cap is calculated) it's the same as the rest of his contracts AAV.

Really?  That's definitely news to me!  I thought the clause was there specifically to try to force teams & players to come to an agreement early in the season rather than letting it drag on.  That wouldn't work if it was "artificial".  If the artificial AAV has no impact, why is it even mentioned?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on May 29, 2019, 01:24:06 PM
Although the Sharks don't have their 1st rounder in 2020 so they're out. Dallas and Columbus could potentially lose theirs if they re-sign Zuccarello and Duchene.

Because compensation requires multiple picks in the same round, teams get an extra year to make it work. So, as long as they have their 1st in 4 of the next 5 drafts, they're eligible (at least, based on my reading). So, San Jose could technically still make it work.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on May 29, 2019, 01:25:17 PM
Really?  That's definitely news to me!  I thought the clause was there specifically to try to force teams & players to come to an agreement early in the season rather than letting it drag on.  That wouldn't work if it was "artificial".  If the artificial AAV has no impact, why is it even mentioned?

It's so teams don't wait into the season to get try to get a lower cap hit on the player's contract that season. For example, with Nylander last season, the Leafs would have only been on the hook for ~2/3 of his cap hit last season without this clause. Instead, they had to carry the full season hit without getting a full season of Nylander.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on May 29, 2019, 01:31:54 PM
Really?  That's definitely news to me!  I thought the clause was there specifically to try to force teams & players to come to an agreement early in the season rather than letting it drag on.  That wouldn't work if it was "artificial".  If the artificial AAV has no impact, why is it even mentioned?

It's so teams don't wait into the season to get try to get a lower cap hit on the player's contract that season. For example, with Nylander last season, the Leafs would have only been on the hook for ~2/3 of his cap hit last season without this clause. Instead, they had to carry the full season hit without getting a full season of Nylander.

I see, so waiting incurs neither an advantage nor a penalty.   

It still seems that since the leafs will be forced to fill out their roster by the start of training camp and because they are at the cap, the amount of money they can give Marner will essentially be fixed.  Whatever amount of money that happens to be, I imagine they'll offer it to him and he wouldn't appear to have many options other than to accept it at that point --- any offer sheet would come before that point and other teams are going to be equally capped out.  I'm having trouble coming up with a scenario where it makes sense for either side to try to continue to eeke out a few extra dollars into training camp.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on May 29, 2019, 01:37:22 PM
I see, so waiting incurs neither an advantage nor a penalty.   

It's penalty in that they have to pay a full season cap for a partial season performance, but, other than that, yeah. There's no additional cap added or reduced.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 29, 2019, 01:39:42 PM
Because compensation requires multiple picks in the same round, teams get an extra year to make it work. So, as long as they have their 1st in 4 of the next 5 drafts, they're eligible (at least, based on my reading). So, San Jose could technically still make it work.

Ah, never heard of that wrinkle before but looks like you're right (although it's worded very weirdly in the CBA).
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 29, 2019, 01:40:21 PM
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on May 29, 2019, 01:48:59 PM
*Edit: Maybe I'm not reading this right.  Can offer sheet max meaning they can afford $10.55+ or just have 4 1st's to give up?

They have the 4 picks to give up, according to CapFriendly.
Column 3 is where I pose the cap space question, but even then it is just a dumb check.

Cap Space - 11M - [(23-current) x $League min] > $0
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 29, 2019, 01:55:18 PM
Sure would be nice if Rantanen would just sign his contract already.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 29, 2019, 02:50:25 PM
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.
And we'll take the 4 1sts thank you very much but we all know, no one is giving up 4 1sts for him. Point and Rantanen have a better chance of that happening and they're not getting it either. Picks are way too important.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 29, 2019, 03:06:18 PM
And we'll take the 4 1sts thank you very much but we all know, no one is giving up 4 1sts for him. Point and Rantanen have a better chance of that happening and they're not getting it either. Picks are way too important.

They're not even just important in terms of keeping your prospect pool alive, but it eliminates potential trade chips for deadline day (or any time of the year) acquisitions. The acquiring team can't deal 1sts anymore to shore up a potential weakness heading into the playoffs, and they probably won't want to deal a lot of their future 2nd rounders either knowing all their 1sts are already gone. That really puts a Cup-chasing team at a disadvantage.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 29, 2019, 03:19:22 PM
Sure would be nice if Rantanen would just sign his contract already.

He's playing a game of chicken with Marner.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on May 29, 2019, 03:24:15 PM
And we'll take the 4 1sts thank you very much but we all know, no one is giving up 4 1sts for him. Point and Rantanen have a better chance of that happening and they're not getting it either. Picks are way too important.

They're not even just important in terms of keeping your prospect pool alive, but it eliminates potential trade chips for deadline day (or any time of the year) acquisitions. The acquiring team can't deal 1sts anymore to shore up a potential weakness heading into the playoffs, and they probably won't want to deal a lot of their future 2nd rounders either knowing all their 1sts are already gone. That really puts a Cup-chasing team at a disadvantage.

And you know what?  Bottom line is, Marner is not *that* good anyhow.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 29, 2019, 03:37:22 PM
And we'll take the 4 1sts thank you very much but we all know, no one is giving up 4 1sts for him. Point and Rantanen have a better chance of that happening and they're not getting it either. Picks are way too important.

They're not even just important in terms of keeping your prospect pool alive, but it eliminates potential trade chips for deadline day (or any time of the year) acquisitions. The acquiring team can't deal 1sts anymore to shore up a potential weakness heading into the playoffs, and they probably won't want to deal a lot of their future 2nd rounders either knowing all their 1sts are already gone. That really puts a Cup-chasing team at a disadvantage.

And you know what?  Bottom line is, Marner is not *that* good anyhow.

I can't wait until this is all over.  I really like Marner, and I think he'll continue to have amazing seasons playing with Tavares, I just hope they get a deal done soon that both sides can live with. Put this crap in the rear view mirror and lets go get our 2-3 Cups in the next 5 years.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 29, 2019, 03:38:22 PM
And we'll take the 4 1sts thank you very much but we all know, no one is giving up 4 1sts for him. Point and Rantanen have a better chance of that happening and they're not getting it either. Picks are way too important.

They're not even just important in terms of keeping your prospect pool alive, but it eliminates potential trade chips for deadline day (or any time of the year) acquisitions. The acquiring team can't deal 1sts anymore to shore up a potential weakness heading into the playoffs, and they probably won't want to deal a lot of their future 2nd rounders either knowing all their 1sts are already gone. That really puts a Cup-chasing team at a disadvantage.

And you know what?  Bottom line is, Marner is not *that* good anyhow.
Not 4 1sts good.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 29, 2019, 04:09:09 PM
I don't really recall Matthews or Nylander's agents ever going this route, at least not to this extent. And they both still got fair deals for their clients.

Well, with Matthews the Leafs seem to have taken the bold negotiating stance of "Give him whatever he wants" and while we can argue about the extent to which Nylander's camp was roundly criticized for how they negotiated at the time, I'm still not sure I'd be too quick to judge Marner's camp for not wanting to follow the "Have a terrible season and make most of the fanbase hate you" model.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on May 29, 2019, 04:58:40 PM
I don't really recall Matthews or Nylander's agents ever going this route, at least not to this extent. And they both still got fair deals for their clients.

Well, with Matthews the Leafs seem to have taken the bold negotiating stance of "Give him whatever he wants" and while we can argue about the extent to which Nylander's camp was roundly criticized for how they negotiated at the time, I'm still not sure I'd be too quick to judge Marner's camp for not wanting to follow the "Have a terrible season and make most of the fanbase hate you" model.

Do you think the agent's objective in working the press--pushing a higher number--is to get a "fair value" resolution faster? I hadn't considered how the press leaks could affect the timing of when a deal gets done, and, at first blush, I can't quite see how saying "he wants a Matthews-esque deal" gets a Nylander-esque deal (i.e. a cap hit we all sort of expect) done in June.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 29, 2019, 05:47:05 PM
Do you think the agent's objective in working the press--pushing a higher number--is to get a "fair value" resolution faster? I hadn't considered how the press leaks could affect the timing of when a deal gets done, and, at first blush, I can't quite see how saying "he wants a Matthews-esque deal" gets a Nylander-esque deal (i.e. a cap hit we all sort of expect) done in June.

No, I think the objective is getting Marner the kind of deal he wants within the time frame he wants. I have no idea to what extent Marner is really open to playing elsewhere or what sort of money he's willing to accept(regardless of how it fits into our definition of fair or expected) but either way I at least see the angle in trying to create public pressure to sign the very popular hometown guy.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on May 29, 2019, 06:25:13 PM
As long as we're all speculating, I think Dubas really wants to avoid another Nylander thing...I'm going to say $8.75m X 6, and done before July 1.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on May 29, 2019, 07:11:07 PM
As long as we're all speculating, I think Dubas really wants to avoid another Nylander thing...I'm going to say $8.75m X 6, and done before July 1.

Dubas would sign that today without even negotiating.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on May 29, 2019, 07:15:43 PM
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.

Well, except for the whole "they have to pay him real money" part.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on May 29, 2019, 08:33:25 PM
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.

Well, except for the whole "they have to pay him real money" part.

4 top-5 picks for marner would be quite the haul, wouldnít it?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 29, 2019, 08:36:49 PM
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.

Well, except for the whole "they have to pay him real money" part.

4 top-5 picks for marner would be quite the haul, wouldnít it?

Yup.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on May 29, 2019, 09:31:13 PM
Ottawa can afford to give Marner 20% of the cap or $16.6M and not bat an eye.

Well, except for the whole "they have to pay him real money" part.

4 top-5 picks for marner would be quite the haul, wouldnít it?

What, no confidence the Sens will make the playoffs?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Dappleganger on May 29, 2019, 11:49:57 PM
As long as we're all speculating, I think Dubas really wants to avoid another Nylander thing...I'm going to say $8.75m X 6, and done before July 1.

Going by the Dubas school of negotiations I doubt it gets done for anything less than $9.5m/year.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 30, 2019, 08:25:15 AM
Dreger was on Overdrive last night, he said he doesn't beat the Marner camp drum like people say he does.  ;D
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 30, 2019, 09:25:57 AM
I wouldn't really be surprised if we ended up seeing a 3-year bridge deal at a number higher than we expect bridge deals to be. Something like $8mil. I'm not even sure I'd really be too upset at that. Gives us a tiny bit more flexibility in this coming season to help us keep Kappy/Johnsson. If Marner proves that he deserves a top-5 AAV in the league after that then I'd happily give it to him.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: hockeyfan1 on May 30, 2019, 01:12:25 PM
What are Mitch Marnerís comparables?  (Early) Patrick Kane & (Most current) Mikko Rantanen.

Hereís a look:


Mikko Rantanen is a current comparable, and in the writerís own words he has ďoutproducedĒ Marner, even though Marner has outscored him in that same span.

Depending on who signs (whom) first, no doubt the Marner camp will be looking towards what these wingers may be in the market for and want a similar deal.

(https://imageshack.com/i/pll67a6gp)


https://theathletic.com/988241/2019/05/22/tulloch-a-breakdown-of-what-mitch-marner-should-earn-on-his-next-contract-based-on-comparables/ (https://theathletic.com/988241/2019/05/22/tulloch-a-breakdown-of-what-mitch-marner-should-earn-on-his-next-contract-based-on-comparables/)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: hockeyfan1 on May 30, 2019, 01:17:39 PM
Also this:  A finer look...

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 30, 2019, 02:55:56 PM
I wouldn't really be surprised if we ended up seeing a 3-year bridge deal at a number higher than we expect bridge deals to be. Something like $8mil. I'm not even sure I'd really be too upset at that. Gives us a tiny bit more flexibility in this coming season to help us keep Kappy/Johnsson. If Marner proves that he deserves a top-5 AAV in the league after that then I'd happily give it to him.
I'd have no problem with that either.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on May 30, 2019, 03:45:31 PM
I wouldn't really be surprised if we ended up seeing a 3-year bridge deal at a number higher than we expect bridge deals to be. Something like $8mil. I'm not even sure I'd really be too upset at that. Gives us a tiny bit more flexibility in this coming season to help us keep Kappy/Johnsson. If Marner proves that he deserves a top-5 AAV in the league after that then I'd happily give it to him.

That would be fine.  Any number that is 9.5 or less can work with the team.  If it's only 3 years so be it, when his next contract is due the cap is higher and we no longer have Marleau (and maybe Zaitsev) which accounts for over $10 with those 2
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 30, 2019, 05:14:51 PM

Now that Dubas owns Ferris signing Marner should be pretty easy.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on May 30, 2019, 06:18:26 PM
So what are we saving cap wise if Zaitzev, Gardiner, Brown and Hainsey are not resigned or traded?  10-12 million?  If Dubas can do this it would be great, if he can move Marleau as well then he gets walking on water status. (even if it is frozen).
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 30, 2019, 06:23:13 PM
So what are we saving cap wise if Zaitzev, Gardiner, Brown and Hainsey are not resigned or traded?  10-12 million?  If Dubas can do this it would be great, if he can move Marleau as well then he gets walking on water status. (even if it is frozen).
6.6 mill. Gardiner and Hainsey dont count as they're off tge books already.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on May 30, 2019, 06:27:26 PM
yes but we are saving on that cap space as well, no?  Otherwise we would be paying them
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 30, 2019, 06:28:05 PM
yes but we are saving on that cap space as well, no?  Otherwise we would be paying them

All of that money has essentially already been swallowed up by the Matthews extension.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on May 30, 2019, 06:29:11 PM
Ok thanks on that Nik. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: 93forever on May 31, 2019, 09:26:26 AM
There are teams out there like the Canadiens who would be more than willing to offer Marner 11 to 12 million per season, in exchange for giving up the draft picks, so why would Marner take 8 to 9 million from the Leafs?  Why would the Leafs even contemplate letting Marner sign with another team in exchange for those draft picks, which may or may not turn into anything great considering they already know what they have with Marner? 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 31, 2019, 09:37:43 AM

The Habs have almost 30% of their cap tied up in Price, Weber and Alzner. They're also going to have to sign Domi next year.

I'd obviously not rule anything out but they don't strike me like a team that's in a good position to add a 12 million dollar salary.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on May 31, 2019, 12:38:49 PM
There are teams out there like the Canadiens who would be more than willing to offer Marner 11 to 12 million per season, in exchange for giving up the draft picks, so why would Marner take 8 to 9 million from the Leafs?  Why would the Leafs even contemplate letting Marner sign with another team in exchange for those draft picks, which may or may not turn into anything great considering they already know what they have with Marner?

I don't think there's any team out there willing to make Marner the highest paid winger in the league.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: 93forever on May 31, 2019, 01:50:21 PM
There are teams out there like the Canadiens who would be more than willing to offer Marner 11 to 12 million per season, in exchange for giving up the draft picks, so why would Marner take 8 to 9 million from the Leafs?  Why would the Leafs even contemplate letting Marner sign with another team in exchange for those draft picks, which may or may not turn into anything great considering they already know what they have with Marner?

I don't think there's any team out there willing to make Marner the highest paid winger in the league.

I think most of us have seen a GM make a trade or signing that made us scratch our heads so anything is possible.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 31, 2019, 01:51:56 PM
There are teams out there like the Canadiens who would be more than willing to offer Marner 11 to 12 million per season, in exchange for giving up the draft picks, so why would Marner take 8 to 9 million from the Leafs?  Why would the Leafs even contemplate letting Marner sign with another team in exchange for those draft picks, which may or may not turn into anything great considering they already know what they have with Marner?

I don't think there's any team out there willing to make Marner the highest paid winger in the league.
...and also give up 4 1sts. Don't see it happening.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: cabber24 on May 31, 2019, 02:16:00 PM
Marner, Dermott, Kadri, Tavares, and Hyman at the Raptors game. All the local born players except Brown? Clearly, this means Marner stays and Brown is gone.

I remember when Babcock said Marner is a Leaf for life. I believe him.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on June 02, 2019, 12:34:40 PM

Who knows if it's true. But there's surely some reporting out there (Dreger) that's roughly consistent with the story. It sure look like Marner's side is working the media hard... I wonder what the reality is behind the PR campaign.

1. Creating a media narrative to justify their ask in advance of presenting their own proposed deals? (that's the obvious one, the usual explanation -- framing the debate)
2. Pumping up expectations so when he signs for a 2-3% overpayment on similar players' second contracts (i.e. $9.5m) he's hailed as a hero and avoids Nylander's press? (the conspiratorial explanation, not inconsistent with other options)
3. Having already received Dubas's best offer, trying to scare the Leafs into moving in their direction by threatening he'll entertain offers during the RFA period? (here it'd be helpful to know what number of stories is built on leaks from Marner's side)

I still think Dubas should just give Marner's side a number ($9.16m) and a list of possible terms (8 on down to... 3?). Forget deep discounts on a bridge. Let the agent pick the term. Just get him under contract at a number the team can manage -- and if there's no such number, take control of his destiny and put Marner on the market so the Leafs can maximize return
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 02, 2019, 02:30:38 PM

Who knows if it's true. But there's surely some reporting out there (Dreger) that's roughly consistent with the story. It sure look like Marner's side is working the media hard... I wonder what the reality is behind the PR campaign.

1. Creating a media narrative to justify their ask in advance of presenting their own proposed deals? (that's the obvious one, the usual explanation -- framing the debate)
2. Pumping up expectations so when he signs for a 2-3% overpayment on similar players' second contracts (i.e. $9.5m) he's hailed as a hero and avoids Nylander's press? (the conspiratorial explanation, not inconsistent with other options)
3. Having already received Dubas's best offer, trying to scare the Leafs into moving in their direction by threatening he'll entertain offers during the RFA period? (here it'd be helpful to know what number of stories is built on leaks from Marner's side)

I still think Dubas should just give Marner's side a number ($9.16m) and a list of possible terms (8 on down to... 3?). Forget deep discounts on a bridge. Let the agent pick the term. Just get him under contract at a number the team can manage -- and if there's no such number, take control of his destiny and put Marner on the market so the Leafs can maximize return

Who is Dave Pagnotta and why do we think heís doing anything more than blowing hot air?

Also, if I were Marner, I too would be arguing for Matthews money in advance of my agent meeting with Dubas.  Why not?
Title: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 02, 2019, 03:24:38 PM
If I remember correctly what I previously said on this thread I don't think he'll take less than 10. If Zaitsev and perhaps Marceau are outta here it makes a slight overpayment more feasible this year. I'd tell him you can have 10 but only if you sign for 8 years. It'll be a bargain toward the end and Mitch can report back to his dad that we're all set for life.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2019, 05:13:33 PM
If I remember correctly what I previously said on this thread I don't think he'll take less than 10. If Zaitsev and perhaps Marceau are outta here it makes a slight overpayment more feasible this year. I'd tell him you can have 10 but only if you sign for 8 years. It'll be a bargain toward the end and Mitch can report back to his dad that we're all set for life.
Agree. If he wants and is firm on Matthews money, I'd wish him good luck in finding a deal elsewhere because we're max at $xxxx. He's not worth Matthews money and I don't see anyone giving him that amount.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 02, 2019, 05:58:24 PM
Agree. If he wants and is firm on Matthews money, I'd wish him good luck in finding a deal elsewhere because we're max at $xxxx. He's not worth Matthews money and I don't see anyone giving him that amount.

That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here. I really hope the Leafs hold strong. Like I said before I think he'll get a real reality check when/if he talks to other teams. But we should basically lay out 3 options:

1) Three year bridge deal for $7.5-8mil
2) Six or seven year deal for $9.5mil
3) Wait for the offer sheet that'll likely be maximum $10.5mil. Tell Marner if he goes that route he's not getting any guarantees he won't be traded in the future (edit: admittedly this would mostly be a bluff on my part)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 02, 2019, 08:41:33 PM
Agree. If he wants and is firm on Matthews money, I'd wish him good luck in finding a deal elsewhere because we're max at $xxxx. He's not worth Matthews money and I don't see anyone giving him that amount.

That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here. I really hope the Leafs hold strong. Like I said before I think he'll get a real reality check when/if he talks to other teams. But we should basically lay out 3 options:

1) Three year bridge deal for $7.5-8mil
2) Six or seven year deal for $9.5mil
3) Wait for the offer sheet that'll likely be maximum $10.5mil. Tell Marner if he goes that route he's not getting any guarantees he won't be traded in the future (edit: admittedly this would mostly be a bluff on my part)
Totally agree with all you said.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 03, 2019, 09:20:20 AM
That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here.

Even if you believe that giving Marner that sort of money is a universally bad idea(and I'm not so sure it is), that's putting an awful lot of faith in the collective good judgement of NHL GMs. I think we both know we can find a fair few "There's no way Marleau will ever be traded" posts around here.

But regardless, the end game seems pretty simple. Next year's Leafs are going to be in a tough spot to be as good as this year's team even with Marner. Gardiner seems to be gone no matter what and while not many of us will miss Zaitsev or Hainsey, there aren't internal options that look like automatic upgrades. So a team that only made the playoffs by virtue of 4 points may very well be in a tougher spot next year.

So if the team goes into next year with Marner pulling a Nylander, there's a very real chance the team could squander the points they need to secure a playoff spot. Maybe Dubas is willing to risk that in the abstract, maybe the fans here advocating for a hard line on Marner's negotiations will be forgiving if the result is not making the post-season(ha-ha) but it's a legitimate piece of leverage when the team needs to find a lot of internal improvement to even get back to where they were.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: L K on June 03, 2019, 09:58:44 AM
That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here.

Even if you believe that giving Marner that sort of money is a universally bad idea(and I'm not so sure it is), that's putting an awful lot of faith in the collective good judgement of NHL GMs. I think we both know we can find a fair few "There's no way Marleau will ever be traded" posts around here.

But regardless, the end game seems pretty simple. Next year's Leafs are going to be in a tough spot to be as good as this year's team even with Marner. Gardiner seems to be gone no matter what and while not many of us will miss Zaitsev or Hainsey, there aren't internal options that look like automatic upgrades. So a team that only made the playoffs by virtue of 4 points may very well be in a tougher spot next year.

So if the team goes into next year with Marner pulling a Nylander, there's a very real chance the team could squander the points they need to secure a playoff spot. Maybe Dubas is willing to risk that in the abstract, maybe the fans here advocating for a hard line on Marner's negotiations will be forgiving if the result is not making the post-season(ha-ha) but it's a legitimate piece of leverage when the team needs to find a lot of internal improvement to even get back to where they were.

To be fair, they still haven't traded Marleau so it's entirely possible they can't find a way to do it.  And if Marleau is willing to sign, his front loaded contract is attractive to garbage teams that don't want to actually spend money.  So while there are plenty thinking he doesn't have value (myself included) I don't think that's nearly as far fetched as Marner making 10-11 million.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 03, 2019, 10:16:15 AM
To be fair, they still haven't traded Marleau so it's entirely possible they can't find a way to do it.  And if Marleau is willing to sign, his front loaded contract is attractive to garbage teams that don't want to actually spend money.  So while there are plenty thinking he doesn't have value (myself included) I don't think that's nearly as far fetched as Marner making 10-11 million.

My point is just that something as mundane as "Marleau may be open to a trade" was always possible and dismissing it as impossible was always ridiculous.

Likewise, while I'm still of the opinion that it's unlikely that Marner gets any RFA offers because of the way that market works the difference is that I don't think that Marner's asking price is going to be the issue. If people generally agree that 9.5 might be a reasonable long term number for Marner and that teams out there would be open to offer-sheeting him at that number then saying that it's somehow inconceivable that one team might go a million or so higher than that doesn't strike me as a realistic look at how NHL GMs operate. If they'd be interested in offer-sheeting Marner at a rate that already loses them the draftpicks, a million or so in cap space isn't going to be the fatal roadblock.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: L K on June 03, 2019, 10:54:14 AM
To be fair, they still haven't traded Marleau so it's entirely possible they can't find a way to do it.  And if Marleau is willing to sign, his front loaded contract is attractive to garbage teams that don't want to actually spend money.  So while there are plenty thinking he doesn't have value (myself included) I don't think that's nearly as far fetched as Marner making 10-11 million.

My point is just that something as mundane as "Marleau may be open to a trade" was always possible and dismissing it as impossible was always ridiculous.

Likewise, while I'm still of the opinion that it's unlikely that Marner gets any RFA offers because of the way that market works the difference is that I don't think that Marner's asking price is going to be the issue. If people generally agree that 9.5 might be a reasonable long term number for Marner and that teams out there would be open to offer-sheeting him at that number then saying that it's somehow inconceivable that one team might go a million or so higher than that doesn't strike me as a realistic look at how NHL GMs operate. If they'd be interested in offer-sheeting Marner at a rate that already loses them the draftpicks, a million or so in cap space isn't going to be the fatal roadblock.

I'll buy that argument under the 10.58 cap.  I could see a team trying to pinch Marner for the 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd...maybe but the 4 1st round picks one is a tough convince for me.  It speaks pretty poorly on Marner if he's going to sign an offersheet though over 500K.  Mostly from my end that would be an argument for letting him walk in my mind.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 03, 2019, 10:58:22 AM
I'll buy that argument under the 10.58 cap.  I could see a team trying to pinch Marner for the 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd...maybe but the 4 1st round picks one is a tough convince for me.  It speaks pretty poorly on Marner if he's going to sign an offersheet though over 500K.  Mostly from my end that would be an argument for letting him walk in my mind.

I'm really not trying to convince you of anything short of not automatically dismissing the possibility of an NHL GM making a big, potentially dumb decision.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 03, 2019, 10:58:23 AM
That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here.

Even if you believe that giving Marner that sort of money is a universally bad idea(and I'm not so sure it is), that's putting an awful lot of faith in the collective good judgement of NHL GMs. I think we both know we can find a fair few "There's no way Marleau will ever be traded" posts around here.

I will own up to this one. Though I donít think I said ďthereís no wayĒ, it didnít look likely to me.  Iím glad it is looking like Iíll be wrong. Weíll still have to see what price the leafs need to pay to get out from under the contract though.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 03, 2019, 12:13:02 PM
That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here.

Even if you believe that giving Marner that sort of money is a universally bad idea(and I'm not so sure it is), that's putting an awful lot of faith in the collective good judgement of NHL GMs. I think we both know we can find a fair few "There's no way Marleau will ever be traded" posts around here.

But regardless, the end game seems pretty simple. Next year's Leafs are going to be in a tough spot to be as good as this year's team even with Marner. Gardiner seems to be gone no matter what and while not many of us will miss Zaitsev or Hainsey, there aren't internal options that look like automatic upgrades. So a team that only made the playoffs by virtue of 4 points may very well be in a tougher spot next year.

So if the team goes into next year with Marner pulling a Nylander, there's a very real chance the team could squander the points they need to secure a playoff spot. Maybe Dubas is willing to risk that in the abstract, maybe the fans here advocating for a hard line on Marner's negotiations will be forgiving if the result is not making the post-season(ha-ha) but it's a legitimate piece of leverage when the team needs to find a lot of internal improvement to even get back to where they were.

First of all, congrats on 25000 posts.  I always read you, it's fun.

I'd just add that I think making the playoffs this year even w/o Gardiner and Hainsey shouldn't be an issue.  Yes, they missed Gardiner while he was gone but in my view they underperformed somewhat pretty much starting after Xmas.  Some of that was structural, and the D will probably continue to be suspect even if Liljegren and/or Sandin step in.  Some was bad coaching (special teams).  But I expect Kadri (if he's still here) and Nylander to have better years.  (They'd damn well better.) 

Anyway, even in a parity league these guys ought be making the playoffs every year for the next X years so long as the core stays healthy and Andersen doesn't fall off a cliff.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 03, 2019, 01:02:36 PM
18 days until the draft weekend.  If Marner isn't signed by then, Leafs face the real possibility of playing the game of chicken with him and the "offer sheet land".  Let's hope it doesn't get to that and both sides can come to something that's fair.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: L K on June 03, 2019, 01:55:01 PM
I'll buy that argument under the 10.58 cap.  I could see a team trying to pinch Marner for the 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd...maybe but the 4 1st round picks one is a tough convince for me.  It speaks pretty poorly on Marner if he's going to sign an offersheet though over 500K.  Mostly from my end that would be an argument for letting him walk in my mind.

I'm really not trying to convince you of anything short of not automatically dismissing the possibility of an NHL GM making a big, potentially dumb decision.

Yeah, I realize I kind of navigated off into another point.  I don't disagree that there are stupid GMs capable of making stupid decisions.  I'm just not sure that there is a GM stupid enough to pay 4 1st round picks for a winger.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 03, 2019, 02:50:56 PM
Yeah, I realize I kind of navigated off into another point.  I don't disagree that there are stupid GMs capable of making stupid decisions.  I'm just not sure that there is a GM stupid enough to pay 4 1st round picks for a winger.

I think in order for it to make sense it would have to be the first part of a larger plan. Take Philly for example. They're in a pretty good place right now because they've got a bunch of their top players signed to below market deals. So let's say they offer Marner 7/77. Then, if they get him, they start shopping Voracek. Obviously they couldn't get 4 1sts for Voracek but if they could get 2 1sts or a 1st and a 1st equivalent prospect they'd be getting younger and better at a net cost of 3 million per year and two distant 1st round picks.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on June 03, 2019, 06:12:41 PM
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 03, 2019, 06:28:25 PM
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on June 03, 2019, 06:32:27 PM
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

Maybe, but if it was also a year shorter so he's gets to UFA quicker it's worth more than 500k suddenly.
Title: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 03, 2019, 10:06:36 PM
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

Maybe, but if it was also a year shorter so he's gets to UFA quicker it's worth more than 500k suddenly.


He signs an offer sheet he immediately goes from one of the most beloved Leafs to one of the most hated ex-Leafs
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 03, 2019, 11:01:11 PM
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

The deal would be five years max at that AAV or else the compensation would be up to the 4 first rounders (e.g. six year deal at $9.5M is $57M/5 = 11.4M for compensation purposes). I can't imagine any GM thinking he's worth $10.5M on a five year deal. He's a hell of a player, that's for sure, and he's going to get a tonne of cash, but he's not going to be the highest paid winger in the league.

I could be wrong of course.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on June 04, 2019, 12:04:49 AM
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?

The deal would be five years max at that AAV or else the compensation would be up to the 4 first rounders (e.g. six year deal at $9.5M is $57M/5 = 11.4M for compensation purposes). I can't imagine any GM thinking he's worth $10.5M on a five year deal. He's a hell of a player, that's for sure, and he's going to get a tonne of cash, but he's not going to be the highest paid winger in the league.

I could be wrong of course.

Ah yes, the total divided by 5 or term, whatever is less. So that would be a four firsts situation. That's better.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on June 04, 2019, 12:35:45 AM
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

If he knows the Leafs will match and wants that extra $500k, why wouldn't he?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 04, 2019, 04:52:06 AM
Been thinking of the worst case scenario and I guess it's an offer sheet of 4 years at 10.5. The compensation is not four firsts but it's the max dollar value without reaching four firsts territory, and Marner is a UFA when the contract is up.

The Leafs would have to match exactly I suppose? I guess the optimistic view is a team wouldn't offer that because they'd expect the Leafs to match?
Leafs would probably match a 10.5 offer. Now if the Leafs were offering 9.75 or 10, would Marner sign it? I think the offer is going to have to blow him away to get him to sign. He's not signing one for 500k more. Don't see it happening.

If he knows the Leafs will match and wants that extra $500k, why wouldn't he?
He doesn't know if the Leafs would match. All he knows is the Leafs offer x, team b offers x + 500k. In the court of public opinion he'll be seen as a guy who chose to leave the Leafs over 500k. Says to me he is all about the cash and like Zee said, he'll be hated. Now if someone offers him 11, 11.5  I wouldn't blame him for signing it. No one would expect him to turn down that kind of cash.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2019, 08:48:18 AM

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on June 04, 2019, 09:42:36 AM

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 04, 2019, 10:23:18 AM

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he canít go that high, I wouldnít sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. Iíve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, iíd like a higher number but I donít think Iíd risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But thatís just me and I may or may not be Mitch.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 04, 2019, 10:56:49 AM

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

Worst case you have a player getting $1m more above market value. Although you've got to wonder what his trade value is if a team is willing to sign him to that high a price. I'm not sure too many teams will use the offer sheet, I think it leads to too much bad blood and makes it impossible to negotiate a deal again in good faith for a long time. The question in my mind is when does the contract become a poison pill? What is someone offers him $11m, however unlikely. Do you take the picks or do you sign and hope to trade?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2019, 11:00:27 AM
If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he canít go that high, I wouldnít sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. Iíve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, iíd like a higher number but I donít think Iíd risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But thatís just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

Leaving aside how much some of those factors are likely to matter to Mitch or you(can't you sing Bon Jovi on other teams?), I think something we saw with the Matthews deal is that if the number being offered isn't one Marner is thrilled with he's not likely to take it at 7 years vs. a significantly shorter term. If Marner thinks he's worth more than 9.5 now, he's sure as heck going to think his UFA years are worth more than that.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Chris on June 04, 2019, 11:02:49 AM

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he canít go that high, I wouldnít sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. Iíve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, iíd like a higher number but I donít think Iíd risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But thatís just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

I hope you're Mitch! I'd like to believe it isn't all about the money for Mitch, and that the stuff we're hearing is coming from his father.

As for the fans, not sure how well they'll react if Mitch and his crew hold the Leafs hostage for a ridiculous salary that handcuffs the team in other areas. Yeah, a defense with Holl and Marincin playing major minutes sounds great! Stanley Cup, here we come.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 04, 2019, 11:06:40 AM

I don't buy for a second that all that many fans would care about Marner choosing to sign a slightly higher offer sheet provided the Leafs match and he plays well.

Likewise, if he signs somewhere else and the Leafs don't match he'll be unpopular here regardless of the terms of the offer sheet. I don't think "Yeah he left, but he left for an extra 7 million as opposed to 3.5" is going to win too many fans over.

Yeah, if Mitch Marner is in a Leafs jersey next year, fans will be happy. If he isn't, they won't be.

There's plenty of incentive on his side to accept an offer sheet, provided he's confident that the Leafs would match (and, if they're not indicating otherwise and showing they're willing to trade him, he should be confident that they'd match anything below the 4 1st rounder compensation).

Worst case you have a player getting $1m more above market value. Although you've got to wonder what his trade value is if a team is willing to sign him to that high a price. I'm not sure too many teams will use the offer sheet, I think it leads to too much bad blood and makes it impossible to negotiate a deal again in good faith for a long time. The question in my mind is when does the contract become a poison pill? What is someone offers him $11m, however unlikely. Do you take the picks or do you sign and hope to trade?

I think at 11, you think long and hard about the 4 first rounders depending on which team he's signing for.  Leafs can take that cap space and go into the UFA market for 1 or 2 other players to replace Mitch and then hope that 1 or 2 of the first rounders are top 10, OR you can use the first rounders as currency to trade for someone good.  What's 2 first round unprotected picks worth?  Probably a lot.  Trade 2, keep 2, the possibilities are there.

This all assumes some mythical offer sheet appears, I'm still not 100% sold on that.  GMs don't want to do that because it'll affect their own team's salary structure, and inflate the overall market for players which is bad for all teams.  It's not collusion, but it's an unsaid rule that offer sheets are no good for anybody.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 04, 2019, 11:08:20 AM
I honestly put the chances of an offer sheet at less than 1%
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 04, 2019, 11:09:37 AM
I honestly put the chances of an offer sheet at less than 1%

(https://i.imgur.com/ex0rqf4.jpg)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2019, 11:10:09 AM
What's 2 first round unprotected picks worth?  Probably a lot.

I obviously can't speak for a lot of NHL GM's but I'd be very reluctant to trade a significant piece away for a return that could vary so wildly depending on something entirely outside of your control. I know in Toronto we tend to view everything like this through the prism of the Kessel deal but it would be a hard sell to your team to move a big piece and get back what turned out to be a couple of late first rounders. Especially if someone is offering you something more concrete.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 04, 2019, 11:17:06 AM
What's 2 first round unprotected picks worth?  Probably a lot.

I obviously can't speak for a lot of NHL GM's but I'd be very reluctant to trade a significant piece away for a return that could vary so wildly depending on something entirely outside of your control. I know in Toronto we tend to view everything like this through the prism of the Kessel deal but it would be a hard sell to your team to move a big piece and get back what turned out to be a couple of late first rounders. Especially if someone is offering you something more concrete.

Do you think signing the poison pill offer sheet at let's say $11M and the Leafs match, how badly do you think it would affect Marner's trade value based on cap hit?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2019, 11:19:31 AM
Do you think signing the poison pill offer sheet at let's say $11M and the Leafs match, how badly do you think it would affect Marner's trade value based on cap hit?

I mean, if some team out there is willing to pay Marner 11 million and sacrifice 4 1st round picks then it's hard to argue that people out there don't think he's worth 11 million.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: L K on June 04, 2019, 11:27:40 AM
Do you think signing the poison pill offer sheet at let's say $11M and the Leafs match, how badly do you think it would affect Marner's trade value based on cap hit?

I mean, if some team out there is willing to pay Marner 11 million and sacrifice 4 1st round picks then it's hard to argue that people out there don't think he's worth 11 million.

And trading for 11.6 million dollar Mitch Marner at the cost of 4 1st round picks doesn't mean you have to trade for him with 4 1sts.  Maybe you trade a prospect two 1sts and a 3rd instead.  Or maybe just the equivalent of two 1st round picks.  Or two 1st round quality prospects who are closer to NHL ready. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Peter D. on June 04, 2019, 11:44:56 AM
Why is it now that the Leafs should draw the line in the sand?  Consider trading him.  Take four 1sts from an offersheet.  Don't cave and give him $1M more than his perceived worth.

I'm confused.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 04, 2019, 12:39:14 PM
Why is it now that the Leafs should draw the line in the sand?  Consider trading him.  Take four 1sts from an offersheet.  Don't cave and give him $1M more than his perceived worth.

I'm confused.

principles, man, principles
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 04, 2019, 03:04:44 PM
If I were Mitch (and maybe I am, you never know on the internet), I would show the offer sheet to the leafs as evidence of my worth, have a discussion, and hope that gives me a little more negotiating leverage. If Dubas says he canít go that high, I wouldnít sign it.  Too much risk for not enough gain.  I like my teammates. I like my city. I enjoy singing Bon Jovi on the bench. My linemates look like they are going to give me pretty much the best possible chance to maximize my on-ice success. Iíve got a bunch of endorsements that can make up a chunk of the difference and increase my stardom.  Yes, for the sake of status, iíd like a higher number but I donít think Iíd risk all the other things for $73.5 million (10.5) vs $66.5 million (9.5) over the next 7 years (for example).  But thatís just me and I may or may not be Mitch.

Leaving aside how much some of those factors are likely to matter to Mitch or you(can't you sing Bon Jovi on other teams?)

But can you find a teammate to sing with you?  Not so clear!

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frycer14 on June 04, 2019, 09:18:27 PM
I really don't see this situation any differently than the Nylander deal. The agent starts high, the gm starts low, and they meet more or less in the middle - I'd wager a 6 year deal at about 10M.

Too much? Maybe, but that's the problem when you have a player end his contract year with such a ridiculously amazing season.

What I was really hoping would happen when Nylander came back is that he would have a substantial points output so that there'd be a team-comparable winger contract that would make it easier for the team to negotiate from. When he shit the bed, it really screwed that up.

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Kaberle15 on June 05, 2019, 02:01:34 PM
I really don't see this situation any differently than the Nylander deal. The agent starts high, the gm starts low, and they meet more or less in the middle - I'd wager a 6 year deal at about 10M.

The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 05, 2019, 02:41:05 PM
The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

As has been discussed before, there's no penalty on the cap. If Marner signs a deal for $10M in the summer or in November, the impact on the cap is the same. Either way, it's $10M on the cap.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 05, 2019, 03:35:55 PM
The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

As has been discussed before, there's no penalty on the cap. If Marner signs a deal for $10M in the summer or in November, the impact on the cap is the same. Either way, it's $10M on the cap.
I'm not so sure. If he signs a deal worth 80 mill x 8 lets say, but he signs in Dec wouldn't his first year hit have to be higher in order to keep the AAV at 10 mill because of the remaining days left in the first season? Leafs did it with Nylander where they paid him 10 mill in the first year to keep the overall hit at 6.9. And that's interesting in itself because his actual dollars worth, $45,089,608 over 6 years is actually 7.5+ mill per. Now I'm more confused lol.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on June 05, 2019, 04:08:47 PM
I really don't see this situation any differently than the Nylander deal. The agent starts high, the gm starts low, and they meet more or less in the middle - I'd wager a 6 year deal at about 10M.

The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

The only thing stopping them here is an internal decision to handle Marner before anything else. As signs have begun pointing toward a more drawn out negotiation with Marner, Dubas has started to move off that position.

As has been discussed before, there's no penalty on the cap. If Marner signs a deal for $10M in the summer or in November, the impact on the cap is the same. Either way, it's $10M on the cap.

How can this be true given the way the Nylander deal worked out and affected the 18-19 cap?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 05, 2019, 04:17:11 PM
The only difference is that the Leafs can't drag this situation, they can not have the penalty on cap hit for a late sign, plus they have to sign others FA/RFAs

As has been discussed before, there's no penalty on the cap. If Marner signs a deal for $10M in the summer or in November, the impact on the cap is the same. Either way, it's $10M on the cap.
I'm not so sure. If he signs a deal worth 80 mill x 8 lets say, but he signs in Dec wouldn't his first year hit have to be higher in order to keep the AAV at 10 mill because of the remaining days left in the first season? Leafs did it with Nylander where they paid him 10 mill in the first year to keep the overall hit at 6.9. And that's interesting in itself because his actual dollars worth, $45,089,608 over 6 years is actually 7.5+ mill per. Now I'm more confused lol.

The book value of his salary was 10M+, but because he was only signed for a portion of the year, his actual salary received was prorated to the number of days on the roster, which equals the $6.9. He'll end up getting paid the equivalent of $6.9 per year.

So, the "book value" of his contract is $45,089,608. You're right; over 6 years that's ~$7.51M. But his real salary will be $6,962,366 x 6 = $41,774,196.

So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 05, 2019, 04:23:29 PM
I'm not so sure. If he signs a deal worth 80 mill x 8 lets say, but he signs in Dec wouldn't his first year hit have to be higher in order to keep the AAV at 10 mill because of the remaining days left in the first season? Leafs did it with Nylander where they paid him 10 mill in the first year to keep the overall hit at 6.9. And that's interesting in itself because his actual dollars worth, $45,089,608 over 6 years is actually 7.5+ mill per. Now I'm more confused lol.

Technically, yes, but, as I said, the actual impact on the team's cap will be the same, as the first year cap hit gets prorated to be equivalent to the cap hit in the remaining years of the contract.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 05, 2019, 05:48:32 PM


So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.
Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on June 05, 2019, 05:52:30 PM


So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.
Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

The 10.2M was pro-rated to 126/186 days of the season so his cap hit 6.96M last year.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 05, 2019, 06:05:27 PM


So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.
Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

The 10.2M was pro-rated to 126/186 days of the season so his cap hit 6.96M last year.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker
So the Pro-Rated cap hit is for paper use only and doesn't count against the Cap?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on June 05, 2019, 06:13:53 PM


So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.
Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

The 10.2M was pro-rated to 126/186 days of the season so his cap hit 6.96M last year.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker
So the Pro-Rated cap hit is for paper use only and doesn't count against the Cap?

The 10.2M/~186 days gives you the daily cap hit.

The daily cap hit X the number of days the player is on the roster is the amount the player counts for on the cap.

It's not that it doesn't count, the full year cap hit is just grossed up to the point where the daily cap hit X by the days remaining in the season make the cap hit equal in all years of the contract.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 05, 2019, 06:40:31 PM
Got ya, I think lol. Thx Deebo and Busta too.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on June 05, 2019, 07:24:00 PM
Got ya, I think lol. Thx Deebo and Busta too.

There was a lot of confusion about this because the media were talking about a big cap hit in year one followed by a discount in years 2 and beyond so much that it became a widely held belief.

Up until Nylander signed and I started looking at how it worked a little closer, I thought the same.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on June 05, 2019, 08:42:55 PM


So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.
Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

The 10.2M was pro-rated to 126/186 days of the season so his cap hit 6.96M last year.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs/cap-tracker
So the Pro-Rated cap hit is for paper use only and doesn't count against the Cap?

The 10.2M/~186 days gives you the daily cap hit.

The daily cap hit X the number of days the player is on the roster is the amount the player counts for on the cap.

It's not that it doesn't count, the full year cap hit is just grossed up to the point where the daily cap hit X by the days remaining in the season make the cap hit equal in all years of the contract.
With the amount of learning we are all doing we could all end up as potential GM's one day soon. NOT
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 05, 2019, 09:09:03 PM
So the Pro-Rated cap hit is for paper use only and doesn't count against the Cap?

The terminology that's being used most is:
Cap Number: the full average annual value (AAV) of the contract
Cap Hit: the actual hit, which is the pro-rated value based on number of days on the roster x daily cap number.

Normal contracts (signed before the season starts) will of course have the same cap number (AAV) for each year. The cap hits would only vary due to long-term injury or time in the minors, etc.

So, using those terms, Willy's Cap Number for the first year was $10M+ and for subsequent years is $6.9M. His cap hit (ignoring any potential LTIR time) will be $6.9M EACH year (pro-rated down to $6.9M for the 1st year and $6.9M for all other years.)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 05, 2019, 09:16:24 PM


So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.
Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

To answer your question, yes, it would be an issue depending on how long it takes. The main reason being that they'd have to pay somebody to play in his place while he wasn't on the team. This would be included in the team's cap number along with Marner's contract.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on June 05, 2019, 09:34:21 PM


So, he gets his $6.9 per year, which means he got a much higher per game amount in the first year. In other words, he got his full $6.9M but only had to play a portion of the year.
Willy's cap hit was 10.2 mill last year so wouldn't that be an issue if Marner signed after the season began? Wouldn't his cap hit be higher in year 1 then 10 mill assuming the contract is 80 mill over 8 years?

To answer your question, yes, it would be an issue depending on how long it takes. The main reason being that they'd have to pay somebody to play in his place while he wasn't on the team. This would be included in the team's cap number along with Marner's contract.

That amount is probably just under 500k at most as they wouldn't be replacing him with anyone one making much more than the minimum.

I think it was Leivo that went out when Nylander signed, and he only counted for 303k on the cap.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 05, 2019, 10:28:09 PM
Agreed that it's probably not a concern, but this is dependent on what moves are made. If Marleau is still on the team, every dollar will critical. With such a tight cap crunch, wasted dollars are even more impactful.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 08, 2019, 12:35:16 AM
Skinner 8x9 (avg).  Marner's getting more than 10 methinks.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 08, 2019, 12:36:40 AM
Skinner 8x9 (avg).  Marner's getting more than 10 methinks.

I mean, at the very least, you're not getting a single UFA year for anything under 10.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 08, 2019, 12:47:09 AM
Skinner 8x9 (avg).  Marner's getting more than 10 methinks.

I mean, at the very least, you're not getting a single UFA year for anything under 10.

Yeah, I don't know how it all works out in terms of term.  I'd see if he'd go for 8 years at 10 or just a shade above.  That should be a bargain well before the end of the contract comes.  And the evolving situation with Marleau and Zaitsev opens up a bit of space in the short run.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 08, 2019, 08:55:30 AM
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 08, 2019, 09:45:12 AM
Skinner 8x9 (avg).  Marner's getting more than 10 methinks.

Skinnerís contract is gonna look like a real overpay when Skinner goes back to being a ~25 goal, ~55 point winger next season, and when Panarin and other prime UFAs donít sign for high amounts more. Itís going to be an outlier.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 08, 2019, 10:21:57 AM
I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks that's a bad contract.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 08, 2019, 10:48:36 AM
Skinnerís contract is gonna look like a real overpay when Skinner goes back to being a ~25 goal, ~55 point winger next season, and when Panarin and other prime UFAs donít sign for high amounts more. Itís going to be an outlier.

I think it's high, but it should be noted this is the 2nd time in 3 years that Skinner got 40 or close (37 goals in 16/17) so I don't think this season was a complete anomaly. He is a very good goal scorer and scoring goals is the hardest thing to do. Also going from playing with centres like Derek Ryan, Victor Rask, and a pre-breakout Elias Lindholm to Jack Eichel is a pretty massive improvement for him. So I wouldn't be surprised to see him stay close to 35+ goals for the next few seasons.

The AAV is high and that coupled with max term means the 2nd half of this deal could be a pretty big problem, but this shouldn't handcuff them too much for the first few years.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 08, 2019, 11:29:53 AM
Skinnerís contract is gonna look like a real overpay when Skinner goes back to being a ~25 goal, ~55 point winger next season, and when Panarin and other prime UFAs donít sign for high amounts more. Itís going to be an outlier.

I think it's high, but it should be noted this is the 2nd time in 3 years that Skinner got 40 or close (37 goals in 16/17) so I don't think this season was a complete anomaly. He is a very good goal scorer and scoring goals is the hardest thing to do. Also going from playing with centres like Derek Ryan, Victor Rask, and a pre-breakout Elias Lindholm to Jack Eichel is a pretty massive improvement for him. So I wouldn't be surprised to see him stay close to 35+ goals for the next few seasons.

The AAV is high and that coupled with max term means the 2nd half of this deal could be a pretty big problem, but this shouldn't handcuff them too much for the first few years.

He was riding an unsustainable shooting percentage in the first half, and it came crashing down after the all star break. 30 goals in his first 48, 10 in the last 34. He hasnít shown an ability to maintain that over multiple consecutive years. Heíll have a couple years where the contract seems worth it, but, itíll mostly be him being overpaid by around $1.5M-$2M per.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 08, 2019, 11:51:37 AM
I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks that's a bad contract.

When Skinner's name was being floated as a possible Marner replacement and I was saying that any UFA would come too expensive the deal I was going to ask if people would be comfortable giving Skinner was essentially the JVR deal. I never thought he'd get this sort of money.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 08, 2019, 11:59:15 AM
JvR is who I thought of immediately. Very similar stats. Skinner's had a couple of higher output seasons, but they might push him up to the $7.5 range?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 08, 2019, 12:27:32 PM
He was riding an unsustainable shooting percentage in the first half, and it came crashing down after the all star break. 30 goals in his first 48, 10 in the last 34. He hasnít shown an ability to maintain that over multiple consecutive years. Heíll have a couple years where the contract seems worth it, but, itíll mostly be him being overpaid by around $1.5M-$2M per.

Well ok but you could also say that he was riding an unsustainably low shooting percentage in that second half, particularly in his last 25 games where he only shot 4.9%. That's kinda how shooting percentages usually go throughout a season, goal scorers have high and lows. At the end of the day he settled in at 14.9% which is a career high but it's the 4th time he's been over the 12% mark, and again it was the first time in his career pretty much where he played with an elite centre. 14.9% was also only 60th in the league in shooting percentages and was a middle of the pack shooting percentage among 30-goal scorers.

Also Skinner is 3rd in the entire league in 5-on-5 goals for the past 3 seasons. Matthews and McDavid are the only guys with more than him. He's very, very slightly ahead of Ovi and Kucherov. Like he is a legit elite goal scorer. I get his lack of point per game numbers hurt him but some of us spent a lot of time arguing that Matthews earned his cap hit largely because of his goal scoring abilities (and because he's a centre, which Skinner of course isn't). So it's hard for me to turn around from that and not recognize that Skinner is almost in his same league in that respect.

Like I said the numbers are high, sure. My problem is people saying "haha Skinner's just a 25 goal scorer". He's been one of the best 5-on-5 goal scorers in the entire league, he's not particularly old, and he's finally been matched with an elite centre for the first time in his career. For a team like Buffalo, that needs to contend soon and might have trouble attracting top flight UFA wingers (does anyone think Panarin for instance for have considered signing there even for a second?), overpaying an elite goal scorer isn't the worst idea in the world.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 08, 2019, 12:30:11 PM
And for what it's worth Evolving Wild's contract projections had him at $8.5mil for 8 years.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 08, 2019, 12:46:22 PM
I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks that's a bad contract.

It doesn't matter whether any of us think it's a bad contract. Mitch thinks it's a good one. I can assure you his agent thinks it's a very good one.

OTOH Paul thinks it's a gross underpayment.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 08, 2019, 12:46:23 PM
I see all these posts in this thread and think somethingís up with MM ...

but aside from being a winger, Skinner seems like a terrible  comparable for Marner (age, goals vs assists, etc) ...

Iím curious about Rantanen ...
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 08, 2019, 01:25:16 PM
Skinner isnt comparable to Marner. Goal scorer vs set up man. Also Skinner is a UFA and had Buff over a barrel. They have no one to take his place on Eichel's line so GM Jack told them to get it done. Skinner would not have gotten that deal anywhere else. 7.5-8 max would be the ballpark. Good on him tho but but don't see this effecting Marner at all.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on June 08, 2019, 02:19:40 PM
And for what it's worth Evolving Wild's contract projections had him at $8.5mil for 8 years.

And I think that Buffalo was up against it...they need a Skinner.

They paid UFA market money, and I hope it goes very badly for them. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 08, 2019, 03:00:34 PM
I see all these posts in this thread and think somethingís up with MM ...

but aside from being a winger, Skinner seems like a terrible  comparable for Marner (age, goals vs assists, etc) ...

Over and above any specific comparisons between two players, the general hierarchy of a given player's desirability is still probably far more important than anything else when determining value.

None of the things you're talking about that make Marner and Skinner different players make Marner less valuable than Skinner. Goals are generally more highly valued, sure, but not to the extent that the point difference between the two would be eclipsed.

Skinner's contract won't directly affect Marner's deal because the biggest issue with Marner is still going to be whether or not a team is willing to try and get him via offer sheet but Skinner's deal is a perfect illustration of how the UFA market can inflate a player's value and why Marner, like Matthews before him, would be right to value his UFA years by significantly more than the people proposing the 7 and 8 year deals for him would like.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frycer14 on June 15, 2019, 03:11:27 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7EIXk98uMk

I watched this video off all the leaf goals from the season on the treadmill the other night, and there's definitely a big difference between Marner's assists, and your generic 2nd assist off an ankle. In so many of these goals, he completely engineers the play. This level of skill doesn't come around very often.

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 17, 2019, 07:13:01 AM
He's really going to be entertaining offers next week isn't he?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Michael on June 17, 2019, 08:24:12 AM
He's really going to be entertaining offers next week isn't he?

I believe that he can do so starting this Sunday.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 17, 2019, 08:40:04 AM
He's really going to be entertaining offers next week isn't he?

I believe that he can do so starting this Sunday.

I know, which is next week.  I had really hoped this would all be put to bed before the draft but here we are 4 days from the draft and not a sniff of anything
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 17, 2019, 08:42:25 AM
He's really going to be entertaining offers next week isn't he?

I believe that he can do so starting this Sunday.

That's when the UFA interview period begins. For RFAs it isn't until the 26th.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 17, 2019, 08:47:18 AM

The stark reality of the RFA "market" may be the best thing to move the talks along.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 17, 2019, 09:51:25 AM
He's really going to be entertaining offers next week isn't he?

I believe that he can do so starting this Sunday.

That's when the UFA interview period begins. For RFAs it isn't until the 26th.

So you're saying I got to wait even longer...

I thought it was Monday, maybe cause Dreger might have intimated that Marner would hop a plane come Monday and start to fly around looking at offers, but of course I could have mis-heard him and he might have said June 26th.  Gonna be a long week.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 17, 2019, 11:37:38 AM
Mitch should watch this last month's festivities and today's parade. Give up a little cash and try to get yourself one of those.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 17, 2019, 11:55:22 AM
Mitch should watch this last month's festivities and today's parade. Give up a little cash and try to get yourself one of those.


I'd be a mess if this day was about the Leafs
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 17, 2019, 11:57:34 AM

Maybe the Owners should get rid of the cap and put trying to win championships over money too.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 17, 2019, 12:02:28 PM

Maybe the Owners should get rid of the cap and put trying to win championships over money too.

I'm sure the one we watch would not really object but they are but one vote and considering half the League loses money I don't think that Cap is going anywhere. Doesn't today's team also have a Cap??
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 17, 2019, 12:04:50 PM
I'm sure the one we watch would not really object but they are but one vote and considering half the League loses money I don't think that Cap is going anywhere.

Really a shame to structure a league where money is more important than winning. Shouldn't be a mindset to impart to players.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 17, 2019, 12:06:52 PM
I'm sure the one we watch would not really object but they are but one vote and considering half the League loses money I don't think that Cap is going anywhere.

Really a shame to structure a league where money is more important than winning. Shouldn't be a mindset to impart to players.

Survival and more player jobs might be a better way to frame it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 17, 2019, 12:10:27 PM
Survival and more player jobs might be a better way to frame it.

Yup. Remember in the uncapped 90's when all of those franchises folded and the league shrunk, really having trouble adding expansion teams?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 17, 2019, 12:14:23 PM
Survival and more player jobs might be a better way to frame it.

Yup. Remember in the uncapped 90's when all of those franchises folded and the league shrunk, really having trouble adding expansion teams?

It's that wage growth that lead to the Cap. It probably would not have been able to go on forever. But hey you be you.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 17, 2019, 12:19:53 PM
It's that wage growth that lead to the Cap. It probably would not have been able to go on forever. But hey you be you.

Other sports managed to deal with it and not implement a hard cap. The only thing that lead to the cap was decisions owners made in the service of their own financial interests.

Now players make those same decisions.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 17, 2019, 12:24:28 PM
It's that wage growth that lead to the Cap. It probably would not have been able to go on forever. But hey you be you.

Other sports managed to deal with it and not implement a hard cap. The only thing that lead to the cap was decisions owners made in the service of their own financial interests.

Now players make those same decisions.

You sure choices made in chasing winning didn't contribute??
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 17, 2019, 12:37:36 PM

And, by the way, the Leafs are absolutely 100% free to say they don't like the Cap. Any day Tanenbaum or either of the phone CEOs could say that they think that it's unfair to us, Leafs fans, for them to not be able to pay salaries proportionate to their ticket prices when compared to the rest of the league. That it's ludicrous for them to maybe have to lose a player because the League won't let them pay him the money they can clearly afford to pay him.

But so long as they're content to not take it on and keep ticket prices where they are then I don't think Marner or anyone should sign with them for less than a fair market value.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 17, 2019, 12:55:57 PM
Doesn't today's team also have a Cap??

A soft cap, that includes multiple exemptions and exceptions. Not an apples to apples comparisons to the NHL's hard cap by anything but the most simplistic measures.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 17, 2019, 02:22:13 PM

And, by the way, the Leafs are absolutely 100% free to say they don't like the Cap. Any day Tanenbaum or either of the phone CEOs could say that they think that it's unfair to us, Leafs fans, for them to not be able to pay salaries proportionate to their ticket prices when compared to the rest of the league. That it's ludicrous for them to maybe have to lose a player because the League won't let them pay him the money they can clearly afford to pay him.

But so long as they're content to not take it on and keep ticket prices where they are then I don't think Marner or anyone should sign with them for less than a fair market value.

As a Leafs fan, the salary cap is a terrible, terrible thing and I wish we could dispense with it.  I hate worrying that paying Marner more than Kucherov and Stamkos puts us at a competitive disadvantage against Tampa (and possibly Florida soon).  And, of course, already paying Tavares and Matthews more than those guys does the same.  After waiting so long for a talent like Marner, to lose him to the system would be dreadful.  Without a cap, the Leafs would be the Lakers/Yankees of the NHL.  I have no doubt that year-over-year they'd have a better team and a better chance at the cup.

Still, despite not knowing the internals of how league decisions get made, I conjecture that if  the Leafs were to make a public stink about the cap then it wouldn't actually bring about any change (because a super-majority of franchises would be against it) but would cause interpersonal problems between owners and managers, possibly create negative league publicity and possibly damage the Leafs ability to make change in the future by getting people they need on their side irritated.  In most businesses, airing problems/complaints publicly doesn't work out well and is a sign of poor management/internal problems.  So I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not the least bit surprised the Leafs are acting the way they are and I wouldn't be surprised if I acted the same way in their place.  I wouldn't be surprised if there was nothing they could do about the situation.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 17, 2019, 02:30:00 PM
So I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not the least bit surprised the Leafs are acting the way they are and I wouldn't be surprised if I acted the same way in their place.

I'm not surprised by how the Leafs have acted either. They voted for the cap, the idea that there was any real opposition to it on their part that was aired in private is almost entirely unfounded(and was probably misinterpreted) and no Leafs ownership in the last half-century has a real record of giving a damn about the fans outside of as walking wallets so "surprise" doesn't come into play.

I'm straight up saying they've played a part in establishing this environment.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 17, 2019, 02:34:05 PM
So I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not the least bit surprised the Leafs are acting the way they are and I wouldn't be surprised if I acted the same way in their place.

I'm not surprised by how the Leafs have acted either. They voted for the cap, the idea that there was any real opposition to it on their part that was aired in private is almost entirely unfounded(and was probably misinterpreted) and no Leafs ownership in the last half-century has a real record of giving a damn about the fans outside of as walking wallets so "surprise" doesn't come into play.

I'm straight up saying they've played a part in establishing this environment.

lol.  fair enough.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 18, 2019, 06:50:54 PM
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 18, 2019, 07:16:00 PM
I'd be shocked if someone paid him 11+ million. Only way he gets anything close to 11 is an 8 year deal and thats really pushing it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 18, 2019, 07:34:09 PM

Well, I hope Dubas knows what he's doing if he calls Marner's bluff. There's a lot of teams with a lot of money to spend.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on June 18, 2019, 08:12:36 PM
Doesn't today's team also have a Cap??

A soft cap, that includes multiple exemptions and exceptions. Not an apples to apples comparisons to the NHL's hard cap by anything but the most simplistic measures.
Time for luxury tax. Let the Rich pay...just like Sunny Ways.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 18, 2019, 08:18:31 PM
Let him toil in Arizona then
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 18, 2019, 08:36:08 PM
What does Karlsson's deal have to do with Marner?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 18, 2019, 08:52:54 PM
What does Karlsson's deal have to do with Marner?

That caught my eye, too - but, itís Kypreos, which means itís probably garbage.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 18, 2019, 09:01:26 PM
Well, I hope Dubas knows what he's doing if he calls Marner's bluff. There's a lot of teams with a lot of money to spend.

Do you see a downside in calling his bluff though? I mean what's the other alternative, just caving now and giving him the $10.5-11mil that he'd only maybe get via an offer sheet?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 18, 2019, 09:10:58 PM

Kypreos does not know the leafs will ďup their offer one more timeĒ ... Dubas is firing anyone who divulges their strategy.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 18, 2019, 09:49:00 PM
Well, I hope Dubas knows what he's doing if he calls Marner's bluff. There's a lot of teams with a lot of money to spend.

Do you see a downside in calling his bluff though? I mean what's the other alternative, just caving now and giving him the $10.5-11mil that he'd only maybe get via an offer sheet?

Only I guess that if Marner does get to a point where he's out there talking to other teams and being sold on life as a Flyer or whatever that it may sour the relationship between player and team past the point of repair.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on June 18, 2019, 10:07:16 PM
The Leafs will only lose him for 4 firsts. Only question is would that be worth it?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 18, 2019, 10:15:13 PM
The Leafs will only lose him for 4 firsts. Only question is would that be worth it?

I certainly don't think so. Unless those are top 5 picks the odds are probably against getting someone like Marner with one of them and even then you're burning some of the best years of the Tavares deal waiting for them to develop.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on June 18, 2019, 10:22:17 PM
The Leafs will only lose him for 4 firsts. Only question is would that be worth it?

I certainly don't think so. Unless those are top 5 picks the odds are probably against getting someone like Marner with one of them and even then you're burning some of the best years of the Tavares deal waiting for them to develop.

What about as trade pieces? Mackenzie also commented he didn't like the prospects of a team with 3 11 million dollar players. The Leafs are top heavy, maybe with four firsts as trade bait they can even out the roster. Hard to trade a first that's four years away I suppose.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 18, 2019, 10:27:46 PM
What about as trade pieces? Mackenzie also commented he didn't like the prospects of a team with 3 11 million dollar players. The Leafs are top heavy, maybe with four firsts as trade bait they can even out the roster. Hard to trade a first that's four years away I suppose.

I wouldn't take four 1st round picks for Marner without knowing the real value of any of them, so already I think you're making a bad trade.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on June 18, 2019, 10:37:37 PM
Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 18, 2019, 10:52:50 PM
Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

Well, if Dubas agrees with me it won't matter as he'd match an offer sheet. Which, for the record, I think is the smart move. Match the offer sheet, let Marner play for a year or so and if you dont like his contract trade him while in the drivers seat.

Basically do what Nashville did with Weber. That worked out ok.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 18, 2019, 10:53:35 PM
This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

More to the point, it also assumes Kypreos isn't pulling this out of his posterior.   I clasp hands with busta on that score.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on June 18, 2019, 11:00:20 PM
Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

Well, if Dubas agrees with me it won't matter as he'd match an offer sheet. Which, for the record, I think is the smart move. Match the offer sheet, let Marner play for a year or so and if you dont like his contract trade him while in the drivers seat.

Basically do what Nashville did with Weber. That worked out ok.

Depends on what the offersheet is too though. Or would you pay him max dollars?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 18, 2019, 11:22:32 PM
Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

Well, if Dubas agrees with me it won't matter as he'd match an offer sheet. Which, for the record, I think is the smart move. Match the offer sheet, let Marner play for a year or so and if you dont like his contract trade him while in the drivers seat.

Basically do what Nashville did with Weber. That worked out ok.

Depends on what the offersheet is too though. Or would you pay him max dollars?

Considering they could probably sign him tomorrow for Matthews money I'm not sure that's super relevant.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 18, 2019, 11:26:21 PM
It's not just the 4 firsts that you get from the offer sheet, you also get to use the Cap Space. So it is possible you could sign a free agent that is 80% Marner and still get 4 firsts.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 18, 2019, 11:27:47 PM
This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

I'm pretty sure it in no way assumes that. It assumes that Marner would be receptive to other offers if the Leafs don't meet his price.

That seems like a pretty fair assumption considering it's true of most hockey players and Marner isn't signed already. If he wasn't even willing to entertain leaving it seems unlikely that he'd be fighting tooth and nail on this contract.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 18, 2019, 11:34:29 PM

Tweet 1: Marner doesn't care about comparables. Tweet 2: compared to these deals, Marner thinks he should get X.

 :-\
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 18, 2019, 11:41:58 PM
I think the suggestion there is that Marner isn't interested in the other RFA wingers who a lot of people thought would set his market. Rather he may be of the opinion, as has been suggested by yours truly, that the difference between RFA and UFA payscale is an entirely artificial concept pushed by GMs and Marner is going to look at UFA numbers when negotiating his deal.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 18, 2019, 11:45:49 PM
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 19, 2019, 12:04:22 AM
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/5WfYQVryPC2EvpEzty/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 19, 2019, 01:00:09 AM
Nik, from the collection of comments youíve made about Marner and Nylander, it *seems* like you are *hoping* that they sign contracts that are much higher than other commentators predict.  For instance, Mirtle predicted Nylander in the 6.5-7 range (as I recall) and it seemed as though you were pushing Draisatl when others were comparing with Ehlers and Pasternak.  A number of analysts have suggested roughly 9-9.5 for roughly 6 years for Marner is reasonable.  You seem to be talking favorably about numbers in the 11 million range, which would put him in the top 5 players in the league at any position.

My question isnít about who is going to wind up right or wrong (weíll find out soon enough, but I donít really care!) or what method is best for projecting player salaries or who is comparable to who.  Rather, I canít help but notice that you always seem to be on the high side of just about everyone else and it seems from your tone that youíd be happier if Marner got 11, 12 million than if he got 9 million.

Am I getting that wrong?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bill_Berg on June 19, 2019, 06:05:32 AM
Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

Well, if Dubas agrees with me it won't matter as he'd match an offer sheet. Which, for the record, I think is the smart move. Match the offer sheet, let Marner play for a year or so and if you dont like his contract trade him while in the drivers seat.

Basically do what Nashville did with Weber. That worked out ok.

Depends on what the offersheet is too though. Or would you pay him max dollars?

Considering they could probably sign him tomorrow for Matthews money I'm not sure that's super relevant.

It will be if some team throws 13 million at him.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on June 19, 2019, 06:55:47 AM
This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

Signing an offer sheet doesn't necessarily mean he wants to leave Toronto -- it might mean he wants to use what little leverage he has an RFA to force the team that holds his rights to pay him what he thinks he's worth.

Not that I think Dubas ought to look at it that way.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 06:57:15 AM
I hope Paul is happy he's managed to get a large portion of the fanbase turning on his kid.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 19, 2019, 07:28:10 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 07:48:43 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 19, 2019, 08:34:53 AM
It will be if some team throws 13 million at him.

I can't see any team making Marner the highest paid player in the league. For better or worse, McDavid's contract has basically set an artificial cap on individual contracts.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 08:38:47 AM
It will be if some team throws 13 million at him.

I can't see any team making Marner the highest paid player in the league. For better or worse, McDavid's contract has basically set an artificial cap on individual contracts.

(https://mapleleafshotstove.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Lou-Lamoriello.jpeg)

Thought you could poach JT without any repercussions?    How does a max $16.4M x 7 year contract sound Mitch?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 19, 2019, 08:38:58 AM
This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

I'm pretty sure it in no way assumes that. It assumes that Marner would be receptive to other offers if the Leafs don't meet his price.

That seems like a pretty fair assumption considering it's true of most hockey players and Marner isn't signed already. If he wasn't even willing to entertain leaving it seems unlikely that he'd be fighting tooth and nail on this contract.

All I'm saying is that we were told last summer that the money trumps everything for big name UFAs.  Then it turned out that sometimes it's bedsheets.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 19, 2019, 08:41:59 AM
All I'm saying is that we were told last summer that the money trumps everything for big name UFAs.  Then it turned out that sometimes it's bedsheets.

And also lots and lots of money.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 19, 2019, 08:42:02 AM
This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

Signing an offer sheet doesn't necessarily mean he wants to leave Toronto -- it might mean he wants to use what little leverage he has an RFA to force the team that holds his rights to pay him what he thinks he's worth.

Not that I think Dubas ought to look at it that way.

If he really doesn't want to leave, and that's his bottom line, he won't risk it by signing an offer sheet.  If OTOH that's not his ultimate bottom line, he will.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 19, 2019, 08:42:48 AM
All I'm saying is that we were told last summer that the money trumps everything for big name UFAs.  Then it turned out that sometimes it's bedsheets.

And also lots and lots of money.

But not the most money.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 19, 2019, 08:44:50 AM
But not the most money.

Sure, we still made him the 2nd highest paid player (at the time) in the league though.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 19, 2019, 08:48:27 AM
But not the most money.

Sure, we still made him the 2nd highest paid player (at the time) in the league though.

I meant that he could have signed for more elsewhere -- wasn't that reportedly the case?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 19, 2019, 08:48:55 AM
Well fair enough. I hope the GMs of other teams don't agree with you or we'll be looking at four firsts of unknown value.

Well, if Dubas agrees with me it won't matter as he'd match an offer sheet. Which, for the record, I think is the smart move. Match the offer sheet, let Marner play for a year or so and if you dont like his contract trade him while in the drivers seat.

Basically do what Nashville did with Weber. That worked out ok.

Depends on what the offersheet is too though. Or would you pay him max dollars?

Considering they could probably sign him tomorrow for Matthews money I'm not sure that's super relevant.

It will be if some team throws 13 million at him.

No team will do that. There aren't that many that can afford that let alone the picks. He's not McDavid.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 08:49:17 AM
But not the most money.

Sure, we still made him the 2nd highest paid player (at the time) in the league though.

I meant that he could have signed for more elsewhere -- wasn't that reportedly the case?

All reports were San Jose offered 7x13 = $91M
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 19, 2019, 08:50:31 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 19, 2019, 08:51:58 AM
But not the most money.

Sure, we still made him the 2nd highest paid player (at the time) in the league though.

I meant that he could have signed for more elsewhere -- wasn't that reportedly the case?

All reports were San Jose offered 7x13 = $91M

Thanks Zee, I thought I remembered something like that.

Of course, nowadays there are plenty of things I think I remember that may not square exactly perfectly with so-called reality.  :P
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 08:53:37 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

At the time Marner's best season was 69 points.  A contract of $9M would have seemed like a huge overpay last summer.   Also it would have set up Nylander to also ask for $9M.  Remember going into last summer people were predicting Marner and Nylander to be between $6.5-$7.5M on "fair" deals.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 08:54:38 AM
But not the most money.

Sure, we still made him the 2nd highest paid player (at the time) in the league though.

I meant that he could have signed for more elsewhere -- wasn't that reportedly the case?

All reports were San Jose offered 7x13 = $91M

Thanks Zee, I thought I remembered something like that.

Of course, nowadays there are plenty of things I think I remember that may not square exactly perfectly with so-called reality.  :P

The older I get I have a hard time remembering last week let alone last year lol
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 19, 2019, 08:55:25 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 08:56:52 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on June 19, 2019, 09:12:08 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 09:22:45 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.

What's the harm?  There's a market system in place, if he thinks he can get 11 somewhere else go and prove your point.   Will he be so upset that the Leafs went through this process that he doesn't perform to the best of his abilities?  Teams and players go through these sorts of things all the time and for the most part, players stay with their teams long term despite the contract battles.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 19, 2019, 09:26:24 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

Why is that ďgoodĒ?  Why do you want the wealthiest players to get wealthier at the expense of the less wealthy players?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 19, 2019, 09:32:16 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

Why is that ďgoodĒ?  Why do you want the wealthiest players to get wealthier at the expense of the less wealthy players?

Itís only good when the cap allocation starts to pull away from the UFA mushy middle that always get overpaid (at the expense of younger players getting opportunity).

Superstars have been taking haircuts since the cap era started.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 19, 2019, 09:34:14 AM
Why is that ďgoodĒ?  Why do you want the wealthiest players to get wealthier at the expense of the less wealthy players?

Phrase this another way: don't you want the best players to get wealthier at the expense of the worse players?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 19, 2019, 10:05:39 AM

Radio hit transcripts for context
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/06/19/toronto-maple-leafs-rumours-mitch-marner-patrick-marleau/

Quote
Iíve said this before and Iíll say it again: When the NHL put the entry-level system in place and put restrictions on what guys get, when you come out of entry-level, you only get certain rights. One of them is not salary arbitration. That was always initially viewed as a huge win for the owners. Theyíve got no rights, basically. Itís withhold services or sign your contract. Everybody assumed that meant that these guys would be in a real tough spot. The exact opposite has happened. These players have become so good, so fast, and meant so much to their teams ó all across the NHL. They all want $8, 9, 10, 11 million.

If there was salary arbitration, I think the clubs would be happy. There would be a mechanism to settle it and you would have to throw out comparables. Theyíd go to arb and point to Mark Stone and Nikita Kucherov. ďTell us why you should get more than $9.5 million.Ē  Heíd go, ďAuston Matthews.Ē And theyíd go, ďWeíve got so many more comparables at $9.5. Thatís what you deserve.Ē
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on June 19, 2019, 10:29:33 AM
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 19, 2019, 10:39:48 AM
Nik, from the collection of comments youíve made about Marner and Nylander, it *seems* like you are *hoping* that they sign contracts that are much higher than other commentators predict.  For instance, Mirtle predicted Nylander in the 6.5-7 range (as I recall) and it seemed as though you were pushing Draisatl when others were comparing with Ehlers and Pasternak.  A number of analysts have suggested roughly 9-9.5 for roughly 6 years for Marner is reasonable.  You seem to be talking favorably about numbers in the 11 million range, which would put him in the top 5 players in the league at any position.

My question isnít about who is going to wind up right or wrong (weíll find out soon enough, but I donít really care!) or what method is best for projecting player salaries or who is comparable to who.

Ok, for the most part when I've talked about these salaries I've mainly been focusing on how comparables work and what I think will happen. Why that separates me from some people is that a lot of your analysts are working under a couple of assumptions I think are false, namely:

1. That there's any good reason why a RFA player somehow "deserves" less money than a comparable UFA player.

2. That despite the vastly disparate revenues between clubs, there's no reason why a player for a high revenue club should be paid more than one for a lower revenue one.

(There's a third issue specific to Nylander which was that I think it made sense for him to think of himself as a C who'd simply been asked to play RW and so he should have been compared to other C's and that justified a Draisaitl-like negotiating position)

Both of those things, right now at least, will drive the salaries of the guys like Nylander, Matthews and Marner higher than fans here might hope. The fact that Nylander got significantly more than the comps people wanted to use, that Matthews got what people were hoping would be a 8 year term on a 5 year deal...I think that validates how I've tended to try to analyze these things.

  Rather, I canít help but notice that you always seem to be on the high side of just about everyone else and it seems from your tone that youíd be happier if Marner got 11, 12 million than if he got 9 million.

Am I getting that wrong?

How much money Marner gets paid isn't really something I'm too worried about. I still, like other people, tend to be of the opinion that you keep your stars and try to build around them. I think there's a chance we see big revenue growth(with the new US TV deal) over the next few years and so a lot of the concerns about balance will seem exaggerated.

Obviously my rooting interest as a Leafs fan would like to see all of these guys sign for much less than fair market value but A) I don't think that's realistic and B) I'm not at all interested in letting that sour me on these guys asking for a fair market value. They want to get paid appropriately according to the revenues they're generating and I think it'd be ridiculous for me to think less of them for that because of a ridiculous system the owners implemented(and were willing to shut down the league for).
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 10:42:23 AM
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?


Believe Leafs would be the first.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 19, 2019, 10:55:30 AM
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on June 19, 2019, 11:04:46 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.

What's the harm?  There's a market system in place, if he thinks he can get 11 somewhere else go and prove your point.   Will he be so upset that the Leafs went through this process that he doesn't perform to the best of his abilities?  Teams and players go through these sorts of things all the time and for the most part, players stay with their teams long term despite the contract battles.

You think Nylander suddenly forgot how to play hockey when he came back in December?  Goes to the World Championships and lights it up.  Coincidence?  I think not.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 11:11:45 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.

What's the harm?  There's a market system in place, if he thinks he can get 11 somewhere else go and prove your point.   Will he be so upset that the Leafs went through this process that he doesn't perform to the best of his abilities?  Teams and players go through these sorts of things all the time and for the most part, players stay with their teams long term despite the contract battles.

You think Nylander suddenly forgot how to play hockey when he came back in December?  Goes to the World Championships and lights it up.  Coincidence?  I think not.

So Nylander was dogging it because he was pissed the Leafs made him wait?  That says alot about a guy's character.  Nylander's bad season was due to: 1. missing 2 months and being "behind" everyone else 2. Not playing with Matthews all year.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 19, 2019, 11:14:42 AM
3.  Bad shooting luck.


Lets face it, his first month or so back he was totally out of sync and while we can say that is totally expected in hindsight it definitely hurt.  After that initial period he played fine- tilted the ice in the Leafs favour but did suffer from some back shooting luck (both himself and his linemates).  Part of that time was with Kadri injured, so he wasn't with Matthews down the stretch either.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 19, 2019, 11:16:05 AM
3.  Bad shooting luck.


Lets face it, his first month or so back he was totally out of sync and while we can say that is totally expected in hindsight it definitely hurt.  After that initial period he played fine- tilted the ice in the Leafs favour but did suffer from some back shooting luck (both himself and his linemates).  Part of that time was with Kadri injured, so he wasn't with Matthews down the stretch either.

Nylander got screwed by the coaching for sure.  No Matthews and no opportunity on the PP with guys like Matthews or Tavares.  I think we'll see a huge difference in Willy this year, I predict he'll be close to or at a point a game.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 19, 2019, 11:21:54 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.

What's the harm?  There's a market system in place, if he thinks he can get 11 somewhere else go and prove your point.   Will he be so upset that the Leafs went through this process that he doesn't perform to the best of his abilities?  Teams and players go through these sorts of things all the time and for the most part, players stay with their teams long term despite the contract battles.

You think Nylander suddenly forgot how to play hockey when he came back in December?  Goes to the World Championships and lights it up.  Coincidence?  I think not.

To be fair he light it up at shinny hockey against minnows.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on June 19, 2019, 11:23:06 AM
The RFA salary Ďsystemí artificially devalues performance when players are at their peak, and the UFA market overvalues current performance from past achievements.

Itís good that RFA contracts are trending up for the superstars. Sucks a bit that we have three in the vanguard, but this is the new reality and honestly, Nylander shouldíve been paid more.

It's kind of funny that the contract people were complaining about turns out to be the best value deal of the 3. Imagine if the Leafs had signed Marner last summer at the reported 8x$9M before Nylander signed.  Nylander would have demanded something closer to that number since the previous 2 seasons were comparable to Marner and he would have been justified in doing so.

I have a hard time believing management wouldn't bite on that. I mean, why not bet on your stars? And if I were a player why wouldn't I bet on myself? Generally players of Marner's ilk will have better 3rd yr seasons than 2nd, so why sign a contract early?

My thinking all along is that the Leafs are going to have to overpay Marner, and probably significantly -- maybe up into the 11s. 

Like Nik said awhile back in this thread, they set the clock running when they signed JT.  They can't burn up his prime waiting for one of four 1sts to maybe develop into 80% of the player Marner is already, or using one or more of those 1sts to trade for that player.

That's fine, but they still have to call the bluff.  The season doesn't start until October.  Let him sit, if the imaginary offer sheet comes in at between 10-11 then the Leafs match.  If no offer sheet comes in what leg does Marner have to stand on saying the "market" deems him worth that much?

So do the Leafs want to play chicken with one of their star players?  I'm still of the opinion that paying your star players is never a mistake.  I'd rather "overpay" Marner than say someone like Kapanen. 

Give Marner $11ish million a year and be done with it.

What's the harm?  There's a market system in place, if he thinks he can get 11 somewhere else go and prove your point.   Will he be so upset that the Leafs went through this process that he doesn't perform to the best of his abilities?  Teams and players go through these sorts of things all the time and for the most part, players stay with their teams long term despite the contract battles.

You think Nylander suddenly forgot how to play hockey when he came back in December?  Goes to the World Championships and lights it up.  Coincidence?  I think not.

So Nylander was dogging it because he was pissed the Leafs made him wait?  That says alot about a guy's character.  Nylander's bad season was due to: 1. missing 2 months and being "behind" everyone else 2. Not playing with Matthews all year.

Sure, there are conditioning, timing and general game shape considerations.  Though everyone isn't on some infinite trajectory where they just keep getting better as the season goes on and Nylander couldn't catch up.   I have no doubt that the process he went through weighed on him and affected his performance.   
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on June 19, 2019, 01:17:29 PM
This all assumes Marner wants to leave Toronto.  And there are many reasons why he may well not want to.

Signing an offer sheet doesn't necessarily mean he wants to leave Toronto -- it might mean he wants to use what little leverage he has an RFA to force the team that holds his rights to pay him what he thinks he's worth.

Not that I think Dubas ought to look at it that way.

If he really doesn't want to leave, and that's his bottom line, he won't risk it by signing an offer sheet.  If OTOH that's not his ultimate bottom line, he will.

That reasoning is too abstract / philosophical for my tastes.

If his camp is convinced that he's worth more than the Leafs' best pre-OS offer and that the Leafs wouldn't dare losing a player as talented as Mitch Marner, they could certainly sign an offer sheet expecting, without much further thought, that the Leafs would simply match, getting them the salary they think Marner deserves.

And I don't think they'd be wrong. It's 50/50.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on June 19, 2019, 01:27:32 PM
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on June 19, 2019, 01:37:24 PM
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.

If they don't sign Marner, they would be taking a step back anyway.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on June 19, 2019, 01:46:18 PM
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.

If they don't sign Marner, they would be taking a step back anyway.

Sure, but whether they'd be able then take steps forward -- and quickly -- is different under a scenario where Marner's making $11m on the Leafs vs. one where he's making that on the Rangers & the Leafs have their four firsts plus a UFA that gives you 80% of Marner for less than his contract ask.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on June 19, 2019, 01:55:48 PM
Are there any teams that have 3 forwards combined to make ~40% of the cap?

There are definitely teams with three guys whose cap % when the deals were signed would have amounted to that.

Beyond that the closest I can find is the 15-16 Blackhawks where Toews, Hossa and Kane were at 37.8%

This is why I think Mirtle was on to something when he said, in the most recent Leafs Report podcast, that the Leafs could sign Marner to something like what his side's asking, as long as they reconcile themselves to taking a step back for a season or two.

They could have 3 players consuming 40% of the cap next season, but they'll have a pretty bleak supporting cast and will have to set expectations... well, a lot lower than a Cup. Three seasons from now, cap growth would probably give them enough breathing room to assemble complementary players that aren't several tiers below what other top teams in the league can put together.

If they don't sign Marner, they would be taking a step back anyway.

I'm not so sure about that, I think that would depend on how they use that $10m in cap space.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 19, 2019, 02:00:16 PM
Just a thought.
For every million Marner signs over the Leafs want, another roster player goes. Assuming Brown is already gone for a pick or someone making a million less then him, you can add Hyman to that list as he'll have to be replaced with an ELC. There's your extra 2 mill to pay him 11.5 from 9.5.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 19, 2019, 04:26:54 PM
Nik, from the collection of comments youíve made about Marner and Nylander, it *seems* like you are *hoping* that they sign contracts that are much higher than other commentators predict.  For instance, Mirtle predicted Nylander in the 6.5-7 range (as I recall) and it seemed as though you were pushing Draisatl when others were comparing with Ehlers and Pasternak.  A number of analysts have suggested roughly 9-9.5 for roughly 6 years for Marner is reasonable.  You seem to be talking favorably about numbers in the 11 million range, which would put him in the top 5 players in the league at any position.

My question isnít about who is going to wind up right or wrong (weíll find out soon enough, but I donít really care!) or what method is best for projecting player salaries or who is comparable to who.

Ok, for the most part when I've talked about these salaries I've mainly been focusing on how comparables work and what I think will happen. Why that separates me from some people is that a lot of your analysts are working under a couple of assumptions I think are false, namely:

1. That there's any good reason why a RFA player somehow "deserves" less money than a comparable UFA player.

I see. For me, it's not about "deserves."  Rather, it's simply about the differing market mechanisms (as stupid as one might think they are) that are in place and the impact they are likely to have ... if the NHL market is "efficient" which it certainly is not :-) .  Given the current NHL economic system, it would largely make sense to me that an RFA would be paid "what an equally talented UFA is paid minus very, very roughly the value of the compensation for switching teams (ie: minus the value of 4 first-rounders for a contract > 10.5 million)" or something somewhat along those lines. But the fact that teams also seem to more-or-less be colluding on not offer-sheeting players may further drive down what RFAs can demand.  And on the other side, the fact that a player can hold out drives up his value. 

Quote
2. That despite the vastly disparate revenues between clubs, there's no reason why a player for a high revenue club should be paid more than one for a lower revenue one.

... I agree with that one --- because the players have agreed to compensation system in which all teams must operate in the same salary window and because that window is defined by league-wide revenues rather than team-by-team revenues, it makes sense that individual player compensation is defined by league-wide revenues rather than individual team revenues. 

(Is there a typo above by any chance?  Did you mean you thought that a player playing for a high-revenue club should be paid more than a player playing for a low revenue club?)

Quote
Both of those things, right now at least, will drive the salaries of the guys like Nylander, Matthews and Marner higher than fans here might hope. The fact that Nylander got significantly more than the comps people wanted to use, that Matthews got what people were hoping would be a 8 year term on a 5 year deal...I think that validates how I've tended to try to analyze these things.

I've looked at analysis from the Athletic.  For example, here's Mirtle from May 29, 2018 on Nylander:

https://theathletic.com/371189/2018/05/29/mirtle-breaking-down-what-william-nylanders-second-contract-should-look-like-for-the-leafs/

Bottom line is that he projected 7 million on a 6- or 7-year deal, which was spot on.  (He also projected the dollar amount for a bridge contract.)  He obtained that by taking a range of comparables from Draisaitl as a bit of an outlier on the high end to Ehlers and Drouin on the low end. 

I also found a prediction for Matthews contract in July 2018 (obviously, a very long time before Matthews wound up signing):

https://theathletic.com/384120/2018/07/12/mirtle-auston-matthews-is-going-to-get-paid-by-the-maple-leafs-but-whats-the-right-contract/

His predication for an 8-year contract was 11.7-12.2.  So, I agree that that one was low given he only signed for 5 years.  He didn't make a prediction for a 5-year contract so it's tough to say exactly how far off he was.  Still, the ballpark seems right for a prediction made 10 months early.

So anyway, there are a couple of predictions for Marner.  I couldn't find a Mirtle one from a quick search, but here's one from Ian Tulloch:

https://theathletic.com/988241/2019/05/22/tulloch-a-breakdown-of-what-mitch-marner-should-earn-on-his-next-contract-based-on-comparables/

I think it's interesting that he uses a ranking based on points/gm as his primary metric --- ie, Marner finished 15th in the league in points/game last year.  Here's his bottom line:

Quote
At the end of the day, it looks like a fair contract for Marner based on historical comparables is somewhere between 11-12 percent of the cap on a long-term deal, which would be between $9-10 million. With Kane and Draisaitl as his closest comparables, itís difficult to imagine him getting much less than 11 percent of the cap ($9.1 million), but itís also hard to find evidence that heís worth more than 12 percent ($9.9 million).

If he signs a six-year deal with Toronto, it will probably end up on the lower end of this spectrum (closer to $9 million), whereas an eight-year deal would push his AAV to the higher end of the spectrum (closer to $10 million).

So 9-10 million.

Now, it may be that the market is moving this year. I have no doubt that if Marner gets offer-sheeting, it will up his compensation.  Given that there just haven't been offer-sheets in the past, if they suddenly materialize this year then it's going to screw up any analysis based on historical analysis.  But, it's kind of impossible for me to factor that in so I'm willing to go with Tulloch's analysis based on the Athletic's solid track record.

Quote
How much money Marner gets paid isn't really something I'm too worried about. I still, like other people, tend to be of the opinion that you keep your stars and try to build around them. I think there's a chance we see big revenue growth(with the new US TV deal) over the next few years and so a lot of the concerns about balance will seem exaggerated.

Obviously my rooting interest as a Leafs fan would like to see all of these guys sign for much less than fair market value but A) I don't think that's realistic and B) I'm not at all interested in letting that sour me on these guys asking for a fair market value. They want to get paid appropriately according to the revenues they're generating and I think it'd be ridiculous for me to think less of them for that because of a ridiculous system the owners implemented(and were willing to shut down the league for).

Fair!

I don't think less of them, but I'm hoping they wind up taking less because it helps the leafs competitive chances ...

but given how the playoffs went last year, Im increasingly feeling that worrying about optimizing team composition is a waste of mental energy....
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 19, 2019, 05:27:39 PM
I see. For me, it's not about "deserves."

Well, I think it should be to some extent or another. I think in any negotiation of this sort a player should be able to try and figure out what revenues they're generating and figure out what their fair cut of that is. A jersey sold for a RFA player or a ticket to watch that player doesn't generate less revenue for the NHL then that of a UFA player so a player is under no obligation to pretend otherwise when trying to figure out his value.
 
... I agree with that one --- because the players have agreed to compensation system in which all teams must operate in the same salary window and because that window is defined by league-wide revenues rather than team-by-team revenues, it makes sense that individual player compensation is defined by league-wide revenues rather than individual team revenues. 

I think saying the players "agreed" to those systems when they were the result of pretty ethically dubious lockouts is a stretch but even beyond that all that was in the agreed to CBAs was that teams like the Rangers and Leafs are allowed to hamstring themselves via total compensation if they choose. Short of the maximum salary, there's nothing restricting what players can ask from a particular team.

Likewise, the Leafs are more than free to take the opposing negotiating position. It doesn't generally seem to be working very well for them because it's indulging in a fiction. It's a simple fact of reality that hockey players are "worth" more in certain markets than in others. The NHL's decision to not acknowledge that in their CBA is not something the players are morally obligated to have tie their hands in negotiations.

Bottom line is that he projected 7 million on a 6- or 7-year deal, which was spot on.  (He also projected the dollar amount for a bridge contract.)  He obtained that by taking a range of comparables from Draisaitl as a bit of an outlier on the high end to Ehlers and Drouin on the low end. 

Mirtle's a clever guy, not clever enough for me to want to buy a membership in the Athletic but still, and I'm glad his projection was close to reality. I think that's vastly different than a lot of the people who were here and exclusively using guys like Ehlers and Pastrnak as comparisons and thought the idea of Nylander at 7 was outrageous.

I never made any serious predictions for what Nylander got, all I said was that a range of comparisons were valid and I wouldn't be surprised if his deal came down within that range.

At the end of the day, it looks like a fair contract for Marner based on historical comparables is somewhere between 11-12 percent of the cap on a long-term deal, which would be between $9-10 million. With Kane and Draisaitl as his closest comparables, itís difficult to imagine him getting much less than 11 percent of the cap ($9.1 million), but itís also hard to find evidence that heís worth more than 12 percent ($9.9 million).

If he signs a six-year deal with Toronto, it will probably end up on the lower end of this spectrum (closer to $9 million), whereas an eight-year deal would push his AAV to the higher end of the spectrum (closer to $10 million).

I said this during the Nylander thing, it's super easy to make cases for just about any number. For instance, you say yourself that Kane is one of Marner's best comparables. And the 2nd deal Kane signed was a 5 year deal, worth 11.09% of the cap. Kane didn't sign his deal after his 88 point season. He signed it on Dec. 2nd, 2009. To date, Kane's best season total was 70 points. As best as I can tell, when Kane signed his deal he was on a 82 point pace, having scored 26 points in 26 games.

So what does that deal really tell us? Marner, coming off a better season than Kane had ever had or was projected to have(15% more scoring!) and presumably negotiating for more than three extra UFA years couldn't possibly think he should get 13.5% of the cap as opposed to 11%? If I were Marner's agent I'd think that three extra years of UFA service being only worth a 1% bump on the cap hit was unreasonable and that's before we even got to my notion about player's worth varying by market.

Anyway that's me just using one example you provided. Do you really doubt I could look back and find others that build a "reasonable" case for 11 million?

Regardless, my belief that 11 million is a perfectly believable outcome really isn't based on making a case for one other over another or historical precedent. Just that it seems to be what Marner wants and I really tend to think teams rather than players are the ones who are more likely to give in these negotiations. I've made this point before but it's much easier for Marner to find another hockey team than for the Leafs to find another player as good as Marner.

If you don't think it's reasonable for Marner to get 11 million and that he's going to be reading the Athletic articles for a definition of his worth as opposed to trying to get a fair cut of the giant amount of revenues the Leafs are generating then that's fair enough but I think the Nylander and Matthews deals tell us you're probably in for a disappointment. Personally, I'm going to go back to thinking that any number in between the low end and the high end is possible.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: lamajama on June 19, 2019, 05:55:36 PM
A few thoughts that occurred to me last summer after I mulled over JT signing and the prediction/statement that Marner was going to
play with JT.....

- from the Leafs side, they had better sign him before last season even if it *appeared to be an over-pay* this past year

- If I was Marner I'm pretty sure I'm having a career year playing with JT so I'm signing anything.

Not exactly a genius take as it was pretty obvious if Leafs didn't sign him last summer that this was going to happen.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Joe S. on June 19, 2019, 06:16:41 PM
I hope Paul is happy he's managed to get a large portion of the fanbase turning on his kid.

Did I miss something? Did something happen? Did Anyone from the marner camp say anything at all?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on June 19, 2019, 06:56:26 PM
I hope Paul is happy he's managed to get a large portion of the fanbase turning on his kid.

Did I miss something? Did something happen? Did Anyone from the marner camp say anything at all?

I heard they told Dubas to go F a duck, and to call only when he's got a $88m cheque in hand for them.

Tough stance.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Dappleganger on June 19, 2019, 07:44:52 PM
I hope Paul is happy he's managed to get a large portion of the fanbase turning on his kid.

Did I miss something? Did something happen? Did Anyone from the marner camp say anything at all?

I heard they told Dubas to go F a duck, and to call only when he's got a $88m cheque in hand for them.

Tough stance.

Can I interest you in a $78m check?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 20, 2019, 01:59:58 AM
Why is that ďgoodĒ?  Why do you want the wealthiest players to get wealthier at the expense of the less wealthy players?

Phrase this another way: don't you want the best players to get wealthier at the expense of the worse players?

I actually donít particularly want that.  Itís a philosophical thing, but I made the rules then player A (eg: the Goat) would not earn 10 times less than player B (eg: Marner/Matthews).   Matthews didnít work 10 times harder than the goat (there isnít that much time in the day). He might not have worked any harder at all. He was just born with some genetic gifts and lucked into a good developmental environment.  In a just world (obviously not the one we are living in), that kind of luck wouldnít convey absurd differentials in material wealth.

All this is less of a big deal for professional athletes than people in other segments of society.  But still, Iím not hoping for further inequality in salary for the best players over the worst ones.  They are already absurdly unequal.

Iím not a republican. :-)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: OldTimeHockey on June 20, 2019, 05:59:43 AM
Why is that ďgoodĒ?  Why do you want the wealthiest players to get wealthier at the expense of the less wealthy players?

Phrase this another way: don't you want the best players to get wealthier at the expense of the worse players?

I actually donít particularly want that.  Itís a philosophical thing, but I made the rules then player A (eg: the Goat) would not earn 10 times less than player B (eg: Marner/Matthews).   Matthews didnít work 10 times harder than the goat (there isnít that much time in the day). He might not have worked any harder at all. He was just born with some genetic gifts and lucked into a good developmental environment.  In a just world (obviously not the one we are living in), that kind of luck wouldnít convey absurd differentials in material wealth.

All this is less of a big deal for professional athletes than people in other segments of society.  But still, Iím not hoping for further inequality in salary for the best players over the worst ones.  They are already absurdly unequal.

Iím not a republican. :-)

I don't know..I think in some professions the most talented should make absurdly more money than the least talented.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 20, 2019, 09:16:28 AM
Iím not a republican. :-)

Haha, I appreciate your reasoning and see where you're coming from.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 20, 2019, 09:23:18 AM
Marner somehow received five top-5 votes for the Selke trophy this year. I expected them to all be from Toronto-centric writers but I was wrong:

Kevin Allen (USA Today), Jason Brough (Athletic), Mark Lazerus (Athletic), Richard Morin (Arizona Republic), and Jim Thomas (St. Louis Post-Dispatch) all gave him votes. Thomas ranked him 3rd! 3rd! Every single one of those guys had him over Sasha freakin' Barkov.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 20, 2019, 09:28:29 AM
Marner somehow received five top-5 votes for the Selke trophy this year. I expected them to all be from Toronto-centric writers but I was wrong:

Kevin Allen (USA Today), Jason Brough (Athletic), Mark Lazerus (Athletic), Richard Morin (Arizona Republic), and Jim Thomas (St. Louis Post-Dispatch) all gave him votes. Thomas ranked him 3rd! 3rd! Every single one of those guys had him over Sasha freakin' Barkov.

Paul Marner be like $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 20, 2019, 09:40:22 AM
The draft is tomorrow.   Let's make today Mitch Marner signing day.  Would set the tone for a good weekend.  Let's go boys, get er done!!
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 20, 2019, 09:40:47 AM
Johnsson picked up a handful of homer picks for the Calder from local writers.

I thought the Marcus Pettersson votes were oopsies where they forgot Elias' first name, but they're real votes (they voted for Elias first)!
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on June 20, 2019, 10:53:12 AM
I think he gets it. No way it's going to be another sitting situation like Willy. Just the reality of the biznass. You've got your core of Auston/Marner/Tavares, two superstar centers and a superstar winger. That's a hella core. That drives two lines. And all three are responsible defensively. Auston and Mitchy made huge strides in that area this year. The three 11-million-dollar men. The other 55% of your fills out your roster. Be creative, draft well, plug in with good role players. That's at least a five year cup window, I'm guessing more. First world problems :) The envy of most of the league. At the cap, but with young, in-their-prime core players.

And I think it is a respect/value thing. They see Matthews as their comparable, and it's a decent case. Not a center but he does so many things well and drives his line. If JT didn't come here and Naz and Mitchy played all year, Kadri definitely has a much better year.

The rough cap dollars where the Leafs most likely are moving forward:
Core($$$$): Matthews/Marner/Tavares - (2 star centers / star winger)
Sub-core($$$): Rielly*/Freddie* - (top D/top goalie/additional D)
Talented Support($$movable): Willy/Naz/Kappy/Johsson - (additional scoring)
Support($): The rest

* currently on value contracts
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 20, 2019, 11:19:02 AM
Yeah, I think we're inadvertently headed back to a Burkean future where the top six are players and the bottom 6 are plumbers.

In our case, they'll have to be literal plumbers or we won't be able to afford them.

On second thought, real plumbers are expensive.  We'll just have to fold the team.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 20, 2019, 11:19:37 AM
A few thoughts that occurred to me last summer after I mulled over JT signing and the prediction/statement that Marner was going to
play with JT.....

- from the Leafs side, they had better sign him before last season even if it *appeared to be an over-pay* this past year

- If I was Marner I'm pretty sure I'm having a career year playing with JT so I'm signing anything.

Not exactly a genius take as it was pretty obvious if Leafs didn't sign him last summer that this was going to happen.

I'm still of the opinion that if a player believes he can outproduce his 2nd year that there is absolutely no incentive for that player to sign prior to finishing his 3rd year. Management obviously thinks signing the earlier the better and the players are smart enough to bet on themselves because you have so much more to gain than to lose. I have a hard time believing Dubas didn't want to get a deal done last summer.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on June 20, 2019, 11:24:28 AM
Yeah, I think we're inadvertently headed back to a Burkean future where the top six are players and the bottom 6 are plumbers.

In our case, they'll have to be literal plumbers or we won't be able to afford them.

On second thought, real plumbers are expensive.  We'll just have to fold the team.

lol! Yeah the Burkean dynamic is different this time because Kyle has actual SUPERSTARS to plug in. Burke just didn't have the horses, he did what he could with his bombastic moves but this time Dubas is mining what I would argue as his two first-overall draft picks. Auston and Marner (who could go 1st in any other year that doesn't have McDavid/Eichel in it). It's just worlds apart. Burkie had Phil and Naz/Bozie. Led to one round of fool's gold over 6 years.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on June 20, 2019, 11:38:28 AM
A few thoughts that occurred to me last summer after I mulled over JT signing and the prediction/statement that Marner was going to
play with JT.....

- from the Leafs side, they had better sign him before last season even if it *appeared to be an over-pay* this past year

- If I was Marner I'm pretty sure I'm having a career year playing with JT so I'm signing anything.

Not exactly a genius take as it was pretty obvious if Leafs didn't sign him last summer that this was going to happen.

I'm still of the opinion that if a player believes he can outproduce his 2nd year that there is absolutely no incentive for that player to sign prior to finishing his 3rd year. Management obviously thinks signing the earlier the better and the players are smart enough to bet on themselves because you have so much more to gain than to lose. I have a hard time believing Dubas didn't want to get a deal done last summer.

Agreed, I'm almost certain both Auston and Mitch turned down any offer after their 2nd year with the response of "just gonna play out the last year of my ELC, then we'll talk." Betting on themselves sort of thing. And with their maturity and desire to improve, a wise move. I'm sure Kyle will have him signed before camp. Mitch will get his too.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 20, 2019, 12:05:18 PM
I see. For me, it's not about "deserves."

Well, I think it should be to some extent or another. I think in any negotiation of this sort a player should be able to try and figure out what revenues they're generating and figure out what their fair cut of that is. A jersey sold for a RFA player or a ticket to watch that player doesn't generate less revenue for the NHL then that of a UFA player so a player is under no obligation to pretend otherwise when trying to figure out his value.
 
... I agree with that one --- because the players have agreed to compensation system in which all teams must operate in the same salary window and because that window is defined by league-wide revenues rather than team-by-team revenues, it makes sense that individual player compensation is defined by league-wide revenues rather than individual team revenues. 

I think saying the players "agreed" to those systems when they were the result of pretty ethically dubious lockouts is a stretch but even beyond that all that was in the agreed to CBAs was that teams like the Rangers and Leafs are allowed to hamstring themselves via total compensation if they choose. Short of the maximum salary, there's nothing restricting what players can ask from a particular team.

Likewise, the Leafs are more than free to take the opposing negotiating position. It doesn't generally seem to be working very well for them because it's indulging in a fiction. It's a simple fact of reality that hockey players are "worth" more in certain markets than in others. The NHL's decision to not acknowledge that in their CBA is not something the players are morally obligated to have tie their hands in negotiations.
[/quote]

I really don't care to argue about this but since a player's value isn't preserved when they are traded, I don't really see it as "their value." 

Anyway, if we are primarily talking about tools used to predict how much a player is going to make then I don't think the observation that Toronto makes more money than almost all other franchises combined is useful.  I have never read a reputable report on how contracts are negotiated that has suggested that agents argue that players playing in Toronto should receive more money because the Toronto franchise makes a lot of money.  Instead, all the reporting I have read indicates that both agents and teams draw up a set of comparable players from around the league and use their percentage *cap hit* (stable across teams) at the time of signing to negotiate contracts.
Quote
Bottom line is that he projected 7 million on a 6- or 7-year deal, which was spot on.  (He also projected the dollar amount for a bridge contract.)  He obtained that by taking a range of comparables from Draisaitl as a bit of an outlier on the high end to Ehlers and Drouin on the low end. 

Mirtle's a clever guy, not clever enough for me to want to buy a membership in the Athletic but still, and I'm glad his projection was close to reality. I think that's vastly different than a lot of the people who were here and exclusively using guys like Ehlers and Pastrnak as comparisons and thought the idea of Nylander at 7 was outrageous.

I never made any serious predictions for what Nylander got, all I said was that a range of comparisons were valid and I wouldn't be surprised if his deal came down within that range.

At the end of the day, it looks like a fair contract for Marner based on historical comparables is somewhere between 11-12 percent of the cap on a long-term deal, which would be between $9-10 million. With Kane and Draisaitl as his closest comparables, itís difficult to imagine him getting much less than 11 percent of the cap ($9.1 million), but itís also hard to find evidence that heís worth more than 12 percent ($9.9 million).

If he signs a six-year deal with Toronto, it will probably end up on the lower end of this spectrum (closer to $9 million), whereas an eight-year deal would push his AAV to the higher end of the spectrum (closer to $10 million).

I said this during the Nylander thing, it's super easy to make cases for just about any number. For instance, you say yourself that Kane is one of Marner's best comparables. And the 2nd deal Kane signed was a 5 year deal, worth 11.09% of the cap. Kane didn't sign his deal after his 88 point season. He signed it on Dec. 2nd, 2009. To date, Kane's best season total was 70 points. As best as I can tell, when Kane signed his deal he was on a 82 point pace, having scored 26 points in 26 games.

So what does that deal really tell us? Marner, coming off a better season than Kane had ever had or was projected to have(15% more scoring!) and presumably negotiating for more than three extra UFA years couldn't possibly think he should get 13.5% of the cap as opposed to 11%? If I were Marner's agent I'd think that three extra years of UFA service being only worth a 1% bump on the cap hit was unreasonable and that's before we even got to my notion about player's worth varying by market.

Anyway that's me just using one example you provided. Do you really doubt I could look back and find others that build a "reasonable" case for 11 million?

Regardless, my belief that 11 million is a perfectly believable outcome really isn't based on making a case for one other over another or historical precedent. Just that it seems to be what Marner wants and I really tend to think teams rather than players are the ones who are more likely to give in these negotiations. I've made this point before but it's much easier for Marner to find another hockey team than for the Leafs to find another player as good as Marner.

If you don't think it's reasonable for Marner to get 11 million and that he's going to be reading the Athletic articles for a definition of his worth as opposed to trying to get a fair cut of the giant amount of revenues the Leafs are generating then that's fair enough but I think the Nylander and Matthews deals tell us you're probably in for a disappointment. Personally, I'm going to go back to thinking that any number in between the low end and the high end is possible.

Just for clarity:  The thing above that you quoted from me was a quote from Ian Tulloch. 

My point is that historically, the Athletic has predicted player contracts well (small sample size; they could be wrong this time!) and you seem to agree that they have done a reasonable job.  Their prediction for Marner on a 6+ year deal is in the 9-10 million range.   

On Kane, the reason that Tulloch thinks it is a good comparable is that if you rank both Kane and Marner in terms of points/game vs the rest of the league, they are similar:

Kane: 
Year 1: 42nd in the league in points/game
Year 2: 45th
Year 3: 14th

Marner:
Year 1: 42nd in the league in points/game
Year 2: 53rd
Year 3: 15th

League-wide scoring was up last year.  Relative to his peers, Marner is extremely similar to Kane (relative to his peers).

But more importantly, Tulloch's projection is not based on just one comparable.  He also includes 4 others including Draisaitl who was 10th pts/game in year 3 of his contract and received 11.3% of the cap, but crucially, not Matthews. 

As a projection tool, the thing that worries me the most about Tulloch's article is the fact that he is using the league-wide ranking of the players.  It is unclear to me whether this metric (though I think it is quite sensible and fair to all parties) will be adopted in negotiations.  That's where a significant amount of my uncertainty lies.  Other sources of uncertainty:

* will Marner get an offer sheet?  (I think it is likely that Marner offer sheet possibilities are entirely media-driven but I can't help being nervous.)

* will Marner hold out claiming Matthews is the only comparable.  This seems unreasonable to me personally, but I naturally have no idea what Marner is thinking.

Tulloch also discusses the winger vs center debate.  It's an interesting and lengthy article.  I encourage you to sign up for the Athletic!  The reporting there is a really significant cut above any other outlet I know of.  I think you would enjoy it.  (I am not James Mirtle!)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 20, 2019, 12:07:24 PM
Yeah, I think we're inadvertently headed back to a Burkean future where the top six are players and the bottom 6 are plumbers.

In our case, they'll have to be literal plumbers or we won't be able to afford them.

On second thought, real plumbers are expensive.  We'll just have to fold the team.

lol! Yeah the Burkean dynamic is different this time because Kyle has actual SUPERSTARS to plug in. Burke just didn't have the horses, he did what he could with his bombastic moves but this time Dubas is mining what I would argue as his two first-overall draft picks. Auston and Marner (who could go 1st in any other year that doesn't have McDavid/Eichel in it). It's just worlds apart. Burkie had Phil and Naz/Bozie. Led to one round of fool's gold over 6 years.

Marner was picked fourth ...  ;)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: cabber24 on June 20, 2019, 12:18:12 PM
Kane is a great comparable but Marner played with Tavares and teams also had to choose against matching their best against the Matthews or Tavares line. Marner is no doubt a stellar player but let's not forget how much his environment contributed to his success.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 20, 2019, 12:30:15 PM
Kane is a great comparable but Marner played with Tavares and teams also had to choose against matching their best against the Matthews or Tavares line. Marner is no doubt a stellar player but let's not forget how much his environment contributed to his success.

I agree.  I don't know who Kane played with.  I do wonder how much Tavares contributed to Marner's year.  Said another way:  I wonder what would have happened if Marner played with Kadri all year and the Leafs had used Tavares to elevate other wingers.  But we'll never know. 

The thing is, while we take such things as linemates into account when arguing about how good a player is, I'm not sure how much they factor into contract negotiations.  The problem is that it's really difficult to tease apart a player from his linemates and so my guess is that it will be hard for the Leafs to use that to drive down Marner's salary.  In other words, it just won't work and it won't matter when it comes to the contract.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 20, 2019, 12:38:22 PM
Kane is a great comparable but Marner played with Tavares and teams also had to choose against matching their best against the Matthews or Tavares line. Marner is no doubt a stellar player but let's not forget how much his environment contributed to his success.

I agree.  I don't know who Kane played with.  I do wonder how much Tavares contributed to Marner's year.  Said another way:  I wonder what would have happened if Marner played with Kadri all year and the Leafs had used Tavares to elevate other wingers.  But we'll never know. 

The thing is, while we take such things as linemates into account when arguing about how good a player is, I'm not sure how much they factor into contract negotiations.  The problem is that it's really difficult to tease apart a player from his linemates and so my guess is that it will be hard for the Leafs to use that to drive down Marner's salary.  In other words, it just won't work and it won't matter when it comes to the contract.
Do you expect either of Kapanen or Johnsson to get paid as 20 goal scorers or 40 point players or do you think their linemates will be considered? Hayes just got over $7 million and barely outperforms either.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2019, 12:38:37 PM
Anyway, if we are primarily talking about tools used to predict how much a player is going to make then I don't think the observation that Toronto makes more money than almost all other franchises combined is useful.

I feel like we're primarily talking about what determines a player's value, or at least how they perceive their value, and I think to that end the financial means of who they're negotiating with absolutely play a part in that.

League-wide scoring was up last year.  Relative to his peers, Marner is extremely similar to Kane (relative to his peers).

Again, Kane didn't sign his deal after his third year but midway through it. Regardless though, this is a simple question. If Marner is a good comparable for Kane, and Kane signed a deal worth 11% of the cap over 5 years, is it completely unreasonable that Marner would be looking for an 8 year deal at 13.5% of the cap? Is that 2.5% the difference between reasonable and unreasonable? Given what we're seeing on the free agent market, is it unreasonable for Marner to think that he'd get 11+ million for his UFA years?

If the only thing we're doing is picking isolated cases from the past and comparing them on a pretty flimsy metric I don't think we're doing much to actually get at why players get paid what they do or how they might value themselves.

Tulloch also discusses the winger vs center debate.  It's an interesting and lengthy article.  I encourage you to sign up for the Athletic!  The reporting there is a really significant cut above any other outlet I know of.  I think you would enjoy it.  (I am not James Mirtle!)

I really wouldn't. I have no interest in the VC business model applied to the sports pages and I've never heard of a single Athletic story being discussed that really interests me.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2019, 12:43:07 PM
Kane is a great comparable but Marner played with Tavares and teams also had to choose against matching their best against the Matthews or Tavares line. Marner is no doubt a stellar player but let's not forget how much his environment contributed to his success.

I agree.  I don't know who Kane played with. 

Dobber has Kane as primarily playing with Toews that year, with Troy Brouwer being the third wheel most of the time. That actually makes it pretty comparable to Hyman-Tavares-Marner. Especially when you figure that it means that Chicago also had another very good offensive line in Hossa-Ladd-Sharp that teams had to worry about.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on June 20, 2019, 02:26:56 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/5wWf7H0qoWaNnkZBucU/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 20, 2019, 02:31:54 PM
I've never heard of a single Athletic story being discussed that really interests me.

Are you sure? Not even the one where they looked at every 1st round draft pick this year and discussed the possibility of that team trading it?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2019, 02:45:53 PM
I've never heard of a single Athletic story being discussed that really interests me.

Are you sure? Not even the one where they looked at every 1st round draft pick this year and discussed the possibility of that team trading it?

I don't want to yuck anyone's yum. If the Athletic does it for you, if the stuff they focus on is what you want to read, hats off. Just personally for me they represent such a departure from what I think good sports journalism is that despite the fact that they have some good folk writing about the X's and O's they're just not for me.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: cabber24 on June 20, 2019, 03:21:45 PM
Kane is a great comparable but Marner played with Tavares and teams also had to choose against matching their best against the Matthews or Tavares line. Marner is no doubt a stellar player but let's not forget how much his environment contributed to his success.

I agree.  I don't know who Kane played with. 

Dobber has Kane as primarily playing with Toews that year, with Troy Brouwer being the third wheel most of the time. That actually makes it pretty comparable to Hyman-Tavares-Marner. Especially when you figure that it means that Chicago also had another very good offensive line in Hossa-Ladd-Sharp that teams had to worry about.
and Kane won a Stanley Cup.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 20, 2019, 03:36:08 PM
I've never heard of a single Athletic story being discussed that really interests me.

Are you sure? Not even the one where they looked at every 1st round draft pick this year and discussed the possibility of that team trading it?

I don't want to yuck anyone's yum. If the Athletic does it for you, if the stuff they focus on is what you want to read, hats off. Just personally for me they represent such a departure from what I think good sports journalism is that despite the fact that they have some good folk writing about the X's and O's they're just not for me.

(https://images.randomhouse.com/author/99857)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2019, 03:41:37 PM
and Kane won a Stanley Cup.

Nope. Kane signed his deal in December 2009.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2019, 03:46:19 PM

I don't get the reference to Simmons.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on June 20, 2019, 07:34:26 PM
Yeah, I think we're inadvertently headed back to a Burkean future where the top six are players and the bottom 6 are plumbers.

In our case, they'll have to be literal plumbers or we won't be able to afford them.

On second thought, real plumbers are expensive.  We'll just have to fold the team.

lol! Yeah the Burkean dynamic is different this time because Kyle has actual SUPERSTARS to plug in. Burke just didn't have the horses, he did what he could with his bombastic moves but this time Dubas is mining what I would argue as his two first-overall draft picks. Auston and Marner (who could go 1st in any other year that doesn't have McDavid/Eichel in it). It's just worlds apart. Burkie had Phil and Naz/Bozie. Led to one round of fool's gold over 6 years.

Marner was picked fourth ...  ;)

... hence the "(who could go 1st in any other year that doesn't have McDavid/Eichel in it)" in the middle of the paragraph. ;)
My point being I consider him a 1st overall pick in talent, hence the "I would argue two 1st overall picks".
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on June 20, 2019, 09:22:22 PM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/5wWf7H0qoWaNnkZBucU/giphy.gif)
the Dude abides, Marner or 10 over 4
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on June 20, 2019, 09:39:39 PM
I can understand Dad and Mitch wanting the best deal, but when you wore Maple leafs pyjamas to bed all your life, why do you hold the team hostage. What really is the difference between 9 and 11 million a year?   Remember Jack Nickleson in Chinatown asking corrupt John Huston, "How much money do your actually need"? 
Yes an extra two million extra a year will make a huge difference down the road, when you play out your career, not playing on your childhood dream team, but it will make a city hate you.  Perhaps let Mitch sign an offer sheet, take the four first rounders and use the money to sign McDavid when he has so much bile in his stomach he has to come home to survive.
Perhaps we should all switch this off for a year and see what happens. Of course we won't.
thank God Matthews signed his contract without all the frikken drama.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2019, 10:24:26 PM

Obviously there's no way to ever know but I really wonder how the Mathews/Marner contracts might have turned out if Tavares hadn't signed here. Maybe the same but I can't help but feel that once you establish that the big dog on this team is getting 11 million a year it's tougher to ask guys who are as good or maybe even better to take less than that.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 20, 2019, 10:39:07 PM

Obviously there's no way to ever know but I really wonder how the Mathews/Marner contracts might have turned out if Tavares hadn't signed here. Maybe the same but I can't help but feel that once you establish that the big dog on this team is getting 11 million a year it's tougher to ask guys who are as good or maybe even better to take less than that.
Without JT, Marner wasn't getting 94 points so yeah a lot different. Matthews would be similar money to what he's getting. As for JT getting 11, he was a UFA and generally they get paid more then RFA's. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2019, 11:02:06 PM
Without JT, Marner wasn't getting 94 points so yeah a lot different. Matthews would be similar money to what he's getting. As for JT getting 11, he was a UFA and generally they get paid more then RFA's.

Marner scored 69 points in 16 minutes a night playing with Bozak and JVR. Between his own development, the increase in ice time and the scoring growth around the league I think it's very possible that provided he was playing with any sort of offensive talent Marner scores 85 points or so regardless of Tavares and I don't think his ask shifts much.

The difference between UFA and RFAs, I think, matters less than setting a pay scale for the team. Once you have a guy making 11, I think it becomes an ego thing for the other guys and it's more about their place on the team more than leaguewide comps.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 20, 2019, 11:27:41 PM
I think JT is a little better then an extra 9 points for Mitch but we'll never know. What was very predictable going into last season was that Marner's numbers were going up large because he was going to play with JT. He did that with a lot of guys over the years.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2019, 11:47:58 PM
I think JT is a little better then an extra 9 points for Mitch but we'll never know. What was very predictable going into last season was that Marner's numbers were going up large because he was going to play with JT. He did that with a lot of guys over the years.

Right but it's not just the upgrade from Bozak to Tavares, it's also the downgrade from JVR to Hyman.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 21, 2019, 03:25:08 AM
Anyway, if we are primarily talking about tools used to predict how much a player is going to make then I don't think the observation that Toronto makes more money than almost all other franchises combined is useful.

I feel like we're primarily talking about what determines a player's value, or at least how they perceive their value, and I think to that end the financial means of who they're negotiating with absolutely play a part in that.


I thought you were trying to predict how much money Marner was going to make ...

Quote
League-wide scoring was up last year.  Relative to his peers, Marner is extremely similar to Kane (relative to his peers).

Again, Kane didn't sign his deal after his third year but midway through it. Regardless though, this is a simple question. If Marner is a good comparable for Kane, and Kane signed a deal worth 11% of the cap over 5 years, is it completely unreasonable that Marner would be looking for an 8 year deal at 13.5% of the cap? Is that 2.5% the difference between reasonable and unreasonable? Given what we're seeing on the free agent market, is it unreasonable for Marner to think that he'd get 11+ million for his UFA years?

If the only thing we're doing is picking isolated cases from the past and comparing them on a pretty flimsy metric I don't think we're doing much to actually get at why players get paid what they do or how they might value themselves.


I thought we were just trying to predict what Marnerís contract is likely to be. Nothing you are saying is ďunreasonableĒ but I find Tullochís analysis more persuasive. My understanding is that agents and managers try to settle on sets of comparables (based on ďflimsyĒ metrics such as this one) and use those comparables to set salary.  He modeled that process and delivered a range. 

Quote
Tulloch also discusses the winger vs center debate.  It's an interesting and lengthy article.  I encourage you to sign up for the Athletic!  The reporting there is a really significant cut above any other outlet I know of.  I think you would enjoy it.  (I am not James Mirtle!)

I really wouldn't. I have no interest in the VC business model applied to the sports pages and I've never heard of a single Athletic story being discussed that really interests me.

I couldnít care less about their business model as long as it succeeds. I simply enjoy their content.

Iím just parroting some of Tullochís arguments about what he thinks Marner should make. You are interested enough in these arguments to take the time to respond ... so I find it rather odd that you are so adamant that you have no interest in the source.  But thatís fine. To each his own.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on June 21, 2019, 11:07:20 AM
Heard today none of these good young RFA's have signed yet (except for Hayes?). Seems like everyone is waiting for July 1st to see if a new era has begun in this area of the contract game.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 21, 2019, 11:09:27 AM
Heard today none of these good young RFA's have signed yet (except for Hayes?). Seems like everyone is waiting for July 1st to see if a new era has begun in this area of the contract game.

All the agents are trying to use as much leverage as they can it seems.  I think once one guy signs you might see a flurry of activity.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 21, 2019, 11:10:44 AM
Heard today none of these good young RFA's have signed yet (except for Hayes?). Seems like everyone is waiting for July 1st to see if a new era has begun in this area of the contract game.

RFAs have an opportunity to see what their league-value is come June 26th. Teams would have to blow away expectations to sign them any earlier.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 21, 2019, 12:40:53 PM
I thought you were trying to predict how much money Marner was going to make ...

I am. The way players determine how to value themselves is a part of that.

I thought we were just trying to predict what Marnerís contract is likely to be. Nothing you are saying is ďunreasonableĒ but I find Tullochís analysis more persuasive.

Which is great but the process is more complicated than just choosing groups of comparables and then...what? Do you think it turns into a debate match where the side that chooses the best comparables wins over their opponents? Or do players egos come into account, both when choosing comparables and then during the negotiating process? Does it become a match of who has better data or who has more willpower? Does every contract fit seamlessly into an existing salary structure or are their outliers?

There are lots of factors that determine how players and teams arrive at their positions and then lots of other factors that determine how the situation is resolved. It just isn't as simple as boiling things down to simple metrics.

 

I couldnít care less about their business model as long as it succeeds.

Well, you should. Especially if that business model dictates not only the fairly anodyne content that they put out(Can't be too controversial or political and risk the constant growth of the subscriber base!) or leads to the pretty numerous ethical lapses they've been guilty of.


You are interested enough in these arguments to take the time to respond ... so I find it rather odd that you are so adamant that you have no interest in the source.  But thatís fine. To each his own.

I'm interested in the overall discussion about Marner's contract. Admittedly, I prefer these discussions when it's people saying "Here's what I think" rather than "Here's what I read in the Athletic" but beggars can't always be choosers.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 21, 2019, 12:57:16 PM

Dreger may as well be signing these tweets with "DF" at the end of them.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 21, 2019, 01:01:14 PM
Aren't there rules about having to clearly identify a sponsored tweet? Can we report this to the FTC?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 21, 2019, 01:24:57 PM
So Dreger is the guy beating the $11 plus drum for months and now He's the guy tweeting not $11 million??? Hard to square that??
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 21, 2019, 01:26:04 PM

Dreger may as well be signing these tweets with "DF" at the end of them.

Almost as if Dreger's tweets were a direct response to Dubas's comments last night.  Did he just hand his password over to Ferris and Paul?  ;D
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 21, 2019, 01:28:58 PM
So Dreger is the guy beating the $11 plus drum for months and now He's the guy tweeting not $11 million??? Hard to square that??

I could be wrong, but what I took from that was that the Leafs haven't hit the $11mil figure yet in their parameters of an extension. I assumed it was in reference to a rumour that Marner declined 8x$11mil from the Leafs.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 21, 2019, 01:31:21 PM
They're digging in at not wanting to go full 8 years which seems to be the new normal for RFAs now, so this is going to come in at a 6 year deal at something like 10.  Either that or a 3 year bridge that nobody really wants.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frycer14 on June 21, 2019, 01:33:04 PM
Some of you guys are like people that get all worked up about how stupid and ridiculous soap operas are, but never miss an episode.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 21, 2019, 01:33:18 PM
They're digging in at not wanting to go full 8 years which seems to be the new normal for RFAs now, so this is going to come in at a 6 year deal at something like 10.  Either that or a 3 year bridge that nobody really wants.

I said it before, but I'd take a 3 year bridge at $8mil.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: freer on June 21, 2019, 01:37:43 PM
They're digging in at not wanting to go full 8 years which seems to be the new normal for RFAs now, so this is going to come in at a 6 year deal at something like 10.  Either that or a 3 year bridge that nobody really wants.

I said it before, but I'd take a 3 year bridge at $8mil.

I agree. He has had one great season without injury. I would prefer a 3 year bridge just to if it was just one lucky season or if he can continue from last season. IMO
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 21, 2019, 01:38:12 PM
So Dreger is the guy beating the $11 plus drum for months and now He's the guy tweeting not $11 million??? Hard to square that??

I could be wrong, but what I took from that was that the Leafs haven't hit the $11mil figure yet in their parameters of an extension. I assumed it was in reference to a rumour that Marner declined 8x$11mil from the Leafs.

You could be right be right but it does say in discussions with the Leafs and not between the Leaf's.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 21, 2019, 01:41:18 PM
You could be right be right but it does say in discussions with the Leafs and not between the Leaf's.

I just listened to the radio hit he was expanding on (link (https://wgr550.radio.com/media/audio-channel/06-21-tsns-darren-dreger-instigators)). Somewhat quoting/paraphrasing this, but when the interviewer brings up the reported $11mil x 8 years offer Dreger said: "That's false. $11mil has never been offered to Mitch Marner. There have been ongoing discussions lobbed back and forth between Dubas and Ferris but $11mil has never been on the table."
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 21, 2019, 01:44:31 PM
Some of you guys are like people that get all worked up about how stupid and ridiculous soap operas are, but never miss an episode.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e1/Eric_Braeden_as_Victor_Newman.png)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 21, 2019, 01:47:42 PM
Dubas doesn't follow Darren Dreger on Twitter :)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 21, 2019, 01:49:34 PM
Dubas doesn't follow Darren Dreger on Twitter :)

He follows Doug Ford though.  :o
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 21, 2019, 02:08:46 PM
Dubas doesn't follow Darren Dreger on Twitter :)

He follows Doug Ford though.  :o

Don't people have hate-follows? Like those following the president's Twitter?

Dubas follows nearly every on screen person at TSN. He follows every hockey insider from Bob to CJ...

(he's also not following Mirtle or Siegel, but is following Damien Cox lol)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 21, 2019, 02:10:49 PM
Dubas doesn't follow Darren Dreger on Twitter :)

He follows Doug Ford though.  :o

Don't people have hate-follows? Like those following the president's Twitter?

Dubas follows nearly every on screen person at TSN. He follows every hockey insider from Bob to CJ...

(he's also not following Mirtle or Siegel, but is following Damien Cox lol)

Mike Commodore :-X
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 21, 2019, 02:11:06 PM
Dubas doesn't follow Darren Dreger on Twitter :)

He follows Doug Ford though.  :o

Don't people have hate-follows? Like those following the president's Twitter?

Dubas follows nearly every on screen person at TSN. He follows every hockey insider from Bob to CJ...

(he's also not following Mirtle or Siegel, but is following Damien Cox lol)

He follows The Athletic though which covers Mirt and Sieg
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 21, 2019, 02:19:53 PM
So let's say Marner signs an Offer Sheet at $11plus.  Would the Leaf's be better off matching or taking the 4 firsts and pitching Nashville for Subban, who they are rumoured to be wanting to move to clear space?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: slapshot on June 21, 2019, 02:37:35 PM
You could be right be right but it does say in discussions with the Leafs and not between the Leaf's.

... but $11mil has never been on the table."

Nor should it be.  As much as I love Marner as a player, Dubas should have the chops to say "enough is enough" and send a message to these selfish agents, fathers and players with big egos. $10 million to $10.5 million is more than fair for Marner, more than any other winger in the league, with just one big year under his belt, and playoff performance that was only mediocre. You could say how much he helped Tavares have his best year, but then the opposite can be true to. How much did having Tavares help him? With a contract level I am proposing and all his endorsements in Toronto, a million or so difference from an offer sheet, should NOT make a difference to him - if he really loves Toronto (and his teammates) as much as he says he does! If he signs an offer sheet for Matthews money or more, I say let him walk...
The Leafs can sign another star for that kind of money and have four first round picks to boot. To me, as much as I like Marner, that makes a lot more sense.
This is about winning a cup, and potentially multiple cups, not one player. Marner could be part of that, and a hero in his hometown for the rest of his life. Even if he wins a cup somewhere else (probably less likely), it won't be the same, and he can walk around Toronto and just see the look on peoples' faces.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 21, 2019, 02:44:20 PM
So let's say Marner signs an Offer Sheet at $11plus.  Would the Leaf's be better off matching or taking the 4 firsts and pitching Nashville for Subban, who they are rumoured to be wanting to move to clear space?
Leafs are obviously better with Marner but if they decided to walk away, I would look at something like that for sure. Like I said earlier, the Leafs can pay Marner whatever, but for every million over that they projected to pay, a roster player goes for a pick or prospect and replaced with an ELC or similar. I'm only using Hyman/Brown as examples. I don't expect Hyman to go because of his injury, but Brown is pretty much a foregone conclusion even without the Marner contract. Their 2.3/2 million go out for a pick/ELC contract, you replace them with a Marlie/ELC or equivalent and you save 1.0-1.5 each in cap space. Hyman, Brown type players become a luxury the Leafs can no longer afford. Of course you could move a bigger piece like Kadri but you're not getting full value back for him in a trade if it's for cap reasons.You want to use Kadri to strengthen your team's weakness on D and as it stands right now, he's far more valuable then either of those guys.
Dubas has some decisions to make moving forward for sure.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Joe S. on June 21, 2019, 02:51:28 PM
I canít say that I disagree with Dubasí strategy here. Heís basically letting the Marner camp know that they should be prepared that the offer sheet will mean that they will be stuck wherever they sign for the next 8 years, so donít count on it as a tactic to drive up the price.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 21, 2019, 02:55:31 PM
I canít say that I disagree with Dubasí strategy here. Heís basically letting the Marner camp know that they should be prepared that the offer sheet will mean that they will be stuck wherever they sign for the next 8 years, so donít count on it as a tactic to drive up the price.
I agree. He also had nothing but nice things to say about him so the ball's in your court Ferris.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 21, 2019, 03:02:04 PM
I canít say that I disagree with Dubasí strategy here. Heís basically letting the Marner camp know that they should be prepared that the offer sheet will mean that they will be stuck wherever they sign for the next 8 years, so donít count on it as a tactic to drive up the price.

Max term on offer sheets would be 7 years, but according to reports the Marner camp isn't interested in long term so the offer sheet would most likely be 5 years.  At 5 years and 10.5 Leafs are forced to match because compensation isn't 4 first round picks.  Leafs don't want 5 years as the contract would expire the same summer as Matthews and Nylander.  If Marner's camp does something like that, Leafs match and maybe look to trade him  a couple years in.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 21, 2019, 03:23:44 PM
I canít say that I disagree with Dubasí strategy here. Heís basically letting the Marner camp know that they should be prepared that the offer sheet will mean that they will be stuck wherever they sign for the next 8 years, so donít count on it as a tactic to drive up the price.

Max term on offer sheets would be 7 years, but according to reports the Marner camp isn't interested in long term so the offer sheet would most likely be 5 years.  At 5 years and 10.5 Leafs are forced to match because compensation isn't 4 first round picks.  Leafs don't want 5 years as the contract would expire the same summer as Matthews and Nylander.  If Marner's camp does something like that, Leafs match and maybe look to trade him  a couple years in.
No one is going to offer a contract the Leafs will easily match. 10.5 may just be a mill over what they want so that's a no brainer and in the end, doesn't really hurt the Leafs. I think if Marner presented, not signed, an offer sheet of 5/10.5, Leafs counter with a different number and term. Like you said they don't want a repeat of this in 5 years.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: hockeyfan1 on June 21, 2019, 03:41:53 PM
Some of you guys are like people that get all worked up about how stupid and ridiculous soap operas are, but never miss an episode.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e1/Eric_Braeden_as_Victor_Newman.png)


Imagine if the moustache himself was the agent...Victor Newman style.😲🥴🙂

Besides, I much prefer watching Y&R than watching too much crappy shoot Ďem up mind-numbing violence. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 21, 2019, 04:28:30 PM
I thought you were trying to predict how much money Marner was going to make ...

I am. The way players determine how to value themselves is a part of that.

I thought we were just trying to predict what Marnerís contract is likely to be. Nothing you are saying is ďunreasonableĒ but I find Tullochís analysis more persuasive.

Which is great but the process is more complicated than just choosing groups of comparables and then...what? Do you think it turns into a debate match where the side that chooses the best comparables wins over their opponents? Or do players egos come into account, both when choosing comparables and then during the negotiating process? Does it become a match of who has better data or who has more willpower? Does every contract fit seamlessly into an existing salary structure or are their outliers?

There are lots of factors that determine how players and teams arrive at their positions and then lots of other factors that determine how the situation is resolved. It just isn't as simple as boiling things down to simple metrics.

There are, but I find it difficult to know how to factor social process into a salary prediction in any reliable way.  Yes, ego, willpower, interpersonal relationships will guide the process but we can't use that knowledge to inform our salary estimate.

On the other hand, while the Athletic's use of simple metrics is .... simplistic and that's actually useful because you can measure how well it works on historical data easily enough.  And there's some evidence that it works relatively well --- I included references that demonstrate their past predictions have been relatively accurate.  It's that evidence that gives me a degree of confidence in their salary estimate.  It's not so unusual that complex phenomena can be approximated with some degree of precision by simple models.

That was a stupidly long-winded way of saying their method has worked in the past so it seems like as good a bet as any going forward.

Quote
I couldnít care less about their business model as long as it succeeds.

Well, you should. Especially if that business model dictates not only the fairly anodyne content that they put out(Can't be too controversial or political and risk the constant growth of the subscriber base!)

I buy their content because I like it better than other content (or rather, it compliments the other content I can get well) ... so arguing that I shouldn't like their business model because it produces bad content isn't going to work ...

Quote
or leads to the pretty numerous ethical lapses they've been guilty of.

What ethical lapses?

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 21, 2019, 05:18:54 PM
That was a stupidly long-winded way of saying their method has worked in the past so it seems like as good a bet as any going forward.

Ok. So far we've talked about their method with regards to two of these Leafs negotiations, one we agree they didn't do very well with and the other where they guessed 7 when the Leafs were offering 6 and Nylander was supposedly asking for 8 so I'm not exactly wowed by the formula.

Because with my guessing on the relatively high side of what common wisdom was, I've more or less been 2 for 2 and considering how the Marner negotiation is shaping up, I'm not overly worried that he's going to sign a long term deal at 9 million per(not that I would be anyway. If I end up wrong, I'll deal somehow)

I buy their content because I like it better than other content (or rather, it compliments the other content I can get well) ... so arguing that I shouldn't like their business model because it produces bad content isn't going to work ...

This was you trying to convince me to read the Athletic, not me talking you out of it. If you think it's good content, best of luck with it.

What ethical lapses?

Off the top of my head you could look into the thing with their Derek Rose article from this year or the thing with the Golden State Warriors with the "joke" that their reporter may or may not have overheard.

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: disco on June 21, 2019, 07:39:45 PM
lol
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on June 21, 2019, 10:03:48 PM
Some of you guys are like people that get all worked up about how stupid and ridiculous soap operas are, but never miss an episode.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e1/Eric_Braeden_as_Victor_Newman.png)


Imagine if the moustache himself was the agent...Victor Newman style.😲🥴🙂

Besides, I much prefer watching Y&R than watching too much crappy shoot Ďem up mind-numbing violence.
Good ol Victor Newman...used to be in the Desert Rats when I was a younger tike.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 22, 2019, 11:23:36 AM
Some of you guys are like people that get all worked up about how stupid and ridiculous soap operas are, but never miss an episode.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e1/Eric_Braeden_as_Victor_Newman.png)


Imagine if the moustache himself was the agent...Victor Newman style.[emoji44][emoji3061][emoji846]

Besides, I much prefer watching Y&R than watching too much crappy shoot Ďem up mind-numbing violence.
Good ol Victor Newman...used to be in the Desert Rats when I was a younger tike.
Was flipping channels the other day and couldn't believe he was still Victor Newman. I remember being forced to watch that show by my sisters in like 1982-83
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 22, 2019, 01:24:55 PM

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 22, 2019, 01:29:35 PM

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.
I read somewhere that they are waiting to announce the Kappy contract until Marner signs so that would support your theory.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on June 22, 2019, 01:43:53 PM



Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.


Well put.  I remember MrT here years ago when the salary cap was new repeatedly and clearly articulating that cap space is an asset and should be treated as such, and of course it's been generally regarded as such since.  But this is particularly one of those times when the value of the cap space asset can't be underestimated, just as the value of a presumably late 1st rounder shouldn't be overestimated.

Not only has Dubas paid to directly help get out of cap hell, but he's also paid to help avert further cap hell from an offer sheet or multiple offer sheets.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 22, 2019, 02:01:03 PM
Well put.  I remember MrT here years ago when the salary cap was new repeatedly and clearly articulating that cap space is an asset and should be treated as such, and of course it's been generally regarded as such since.  But this is particularly one of those times when the value of the cap space asset can't be underestimated, just as the value of a presumably late 1st rounder shouldn't be overestimated.

Not only has Dubas paid to directly help get out of cap hell, but he's also paid to help avert further cap hell from an offer sheet or multiple offer sheets.

While this is all true, we should be honest about the cost. It's not the 1st so much that bothers me so much as it does sort of highlight the reality that in the Lamoriello-Dubas era there have been a lot of blown 2nd and 3rd round picks that are going to result in kind of a depleted prospect base. That sucks, and it might be a reason why the team stutters a bit, but losing Kapanen(or even Marner) would have been worse.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Hobbes on June 22, 2019, 02:02:23 PM



Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.


Well put.  I remember MrT here years ago when the salary cap was new repeatedly and clearly articulating that cap space is an asset and should be treated as such, and of course it's been generally regarded as such since.  But this is particularly one of those times when the value of the cap space asset can't be underestimated, just as the value of a presumably late 1st rounder shouldn't be overestimated.

Not only has Dubas paid to directly help get out of cap hell, but he's also paid to help avert further cap hell from an offer sheet or multiple offer sheets.
Maybe also some added good will value as other look at how the Leafs were willing to do something creative of this nature to facilitate Marleau's desire to finish his career out West (though of course in addition to helping their own cap situation). I'm sure if nothing else Matthews and Marner will be happy about seeing their "dad" getting what he wanted.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Hobbes on June 22, 2019, 02:04:36 PM
...it does sort of highlight the reality that in the Lamoriello-Dubas Lamoriello-Hunter  era there have been a lot of blown 2nd and 3rd round picks...
Fixed...
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: sickbeast on June 22, 2019, 02:13:53 PM
Wow...the Leafs currently only have $14,040,301 in free cap space even after the Marleau deal.  Let's say Marner gets $11 million...that leaves $3 million to replace or re-sign Kapanen, Johnsson, *and* Gardiner.

It's looking like Zeitsev is definitely going to have to go.  This is looking like a busy summer for Dubas.

My fear is that even with all these moves and draft picks traded away we're still going to wind up with an inferior team compared to last season...plus Muzzin is gone at the end of the upcoming season.  We shall see.  Dubas is in a tough spot to build a true contender for the upcoming season.  He will eventually run out of draft picks also.  It would be nice to have a few left to get a decent rental if we're making a run.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 22, 2019, 02:15:10 PM

The Leafs have 19.3 million in space. Capfriendly is including Horton.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: sickbeast on June 22, 2019, 02:15:49 PM

The Leafs have 19.3 million in space. Capfriendly is including Horton.
Thanks.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 22, 2019, 02:39:11 PM

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.

Just for fun, to take the other side of the argument: this theory rests on the assumption that 30 other GMs think paying Marner (say) $11M is a vast overpayment.  If I'm a GM sitting in my office this afternoon, I am thinking about how to make my team better, not the league's overall salary structure.  And at least some of those GMs would love to have Marner on their team, even at $11 or $11 and a bit more, and could do it given their current situation.  Why not take a high shot with an offer sheet?  Worst case is you win.

Although TBH I don't think today's move will make much difference either way in an OS calculation.  What it might do is bolster the idea (DF, PM) that the Leafs can now afford to pay Mitch what they think he's worth.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 22, 2019, 02:40:18 PM

Something to keep in mind re: the Marleau trade is that a lot of the conjecture about an offer sheet was based on the Leafs inability to match. If the Leafs have ample space to match even a 12 million per year offer sheet then actually making the offer serves no real purpose other than inflating salaries, something we've seen that NHL GMs don't like doing.

So the net result of the Marleau trade might not just be keeping Kapanen and Johnsson, it might also really be a kick in the goolies to Marner's leverage.

Good point. Leafs can safely defend any imaginary offer sheet now. Your move Paul Marner.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 22, 2019, 02:47:04 PM
Just for fun, to take the other side of the argument: this theory rests on the assumption that 30 other GMs think paying Marner (say) $11M is a vast overpayment.  If I'm a GM sitting in my office this afternoon, I am thinking about how to make my team better, not the league's overall salary structure.  And at least some of those GMs would love to have Marner on their team, even at $11 or $11 and a bit more, and could do it given their current situation.  Why not take a high shot with an offer sheet?  Worst case is you win.

Well, no. Worst case scenario is you lose and then you have to enter your next negotiation with one of your best players and have them say "Oh, so you think Marner is worth 11 million and 4 first round picks but I'm not worth what I'm asking?"

The leaguewide salary structure directly impacts all of these GMs and their ability to make their teams better. The RFA market being dead helps them all. As the Leafs are learning with Tavares, you can't go out and spend 11 million on a free agent and then not be in some cap trouble a few years out so anyone making that offer to Mitch will then be vulnerable to a similar thing themselves.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 22, 2019, 02:48:32 PM
Realistically what teams can and might offer sheet Marner?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 22, 2019, 02:49:20 PM
Just for fun, to take the other side of the argument: this theory rests on the assumption that 30 other GMs think paying Marner (say) $11M is a vast overpayment.  If I'm a GM sitting in my office this afternoon, I am thinking about how to make my team better, not the league's overall salary structure.  And at least some of those GMs would love to have Marner on their team, even at $11 or $11 and a bit more, and could do it given their current situation.  Why not take a high shot with an offer sheet?  Worst case is you win.

Well, no. Worst case scenario is you lose and then you have to enter your next negotiation with one of your best players and have them say "Oh, so you think Marner is worth 11 million and 4 first round picks but I'm not worth what I'm asking?"

The leaguewide salary structure directly impacts all of these GMs and their ability to make their teams better. The RFA market being dead helps them all. As the Leafs are learning with Tavares, you can't go out and spend 11 million on a free agent and then not be in some cap trouble a few years out so anyone making that offer to Mitch will then be vulnerable to a similar thing themselves.

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

Like I said, not much impact there one way or the other (in terms of likelihood).  Lots of impact, obviously, on defendability.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 22, 2019, 02:54:18 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 22, 2019, 02:58:54 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 22, 2019, 02:59:51 PM
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 22, 2019, 03:01:00 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 22, 2019, 03:01:54 PM
I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

Not likely, no. But there's a difference between not likely and completely meaningless which this sort of ensures.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 22, 2019, 03:03:14 PM
I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

Not likely, no. But there's a difference between not likely and completely meaningless which this sort of ensures.

OK, if that's what it comes down to.  I was just taking the other side to explore the rationale a bit.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 22, 2019, 03:06:00 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: RedLeaf on June 22, 2019, 03:08:46 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

My hope is that a sign-and-trade is in the works with either Kapanen or Johnsson, for a solid D-Man.

So many skilled forwards once these guys (and Marner) are signed. But so few skilled defenders, especially if Gardiner & Zaitsev are on their way out.

Too lopsided a mix to be a legit contender. At least that's my take.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 22, 2019, 03:09:01 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

I don't think we can addresses everything this year, I suspect a piecemeal D is what we can expect this season.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Hobbes on June 22, 2019, 03:33:25 PM
With the Leafs having been reportedly kicking tires on Suban, what if the expectation is that Marner will sign an offer sheet and the plan is simply to let him go, take the four first round picks, and use that ~$10M space to go out and get a legit top pairing right D. Trading for one would certainly be a possibility since we do have a few assets and could potentially throw in one or more of those newly-acquired 1sts. Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 22, 2019, 03:37:10 PM
With the Leafs having been reportedly kicking tires on Suban, what if the expectation is that Marner will sign an offer sheet and the plan is simply to let him go, take the four first round picks, and use that ~$10M space to go out and get a legit top pairing right D. Trading for one would certainly be a possibility since we do have a few assets and could potentially throw in one or more of those newly-acquired 1sts. Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

LeBrun said Subban would have only worked here if Nashville ate $3mil-ish, so I don't think that was connected to Marner being OS'd.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frycer14 on June 22, 2019, 03:40:02 PM
Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

I personally wouldn't trade Marner for Doughty straight up, let alone give up 3 firsts for him.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Hobbes on June 22, 2019, 03:45:00 PM
Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

I personally wouldn't trade Marner for Doughty straight up, let alone give up 3 firsts for him.
The net effect would be trading Marner for Doughty and 1 first and also getting out from under Zaitsev's contract (= another $4M+ in cap space). Those wouldn't be our firsts...they'd be the ones coming from the team that offer-sheeted Marner away.

With the Leafs having been reportedly kicking tires on Suban, what if the expectation is that Marner will sign an offer sheet and the plan is simply to let him go, take the four first round picks, and use that ~$10M space to go out and get a legit top pairing right D. Trading for one would certainly be a possibility since we do have a few assets and could potentially throw in one or more of those newly-acquired 1sts. Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

LeBrun said Subban would have only worked here if Nashville ate $3mil-ish, so I don't think that was connected to Marner being OS'd.
Or would have worked for the Leafs if they didn't have Marner on the books...they would then easily have the full $9M available for Suban's contract plus the four 1sts in compensation for Marner.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 22, 2019, 04:32:26 PM

Welcome back, SI!
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on June 22, 2019, 04:49:29 PM
Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

I personally wouldn't trade Marner for Doughty straight up, let alone give up 3 firsts for him.
The net effect would be trading Marner for Doughty and 1 first and also getting out from under Zaitsev's contract (= another $4M+ in cap space). Those wouldn't be our firsts...they'd be the ones coming from the team that offer-sheeted Marner away.

With the Leafs having been reportedly kicking tires on Suban, what if the expectation is that Marner will sign an offer sheet and the plan is simply to let him go, take the four first round picks, and use that ~$10M space to go out and get a legit top pairing right D. Trading for one would certainly be a possibility since we do have a few assets and could potentially throw in one or more of those newly-acquired 1sts. Maybe some rebuilding team like LA would take Zaitsev and 3 of those firsts in trade for Doughty?

LeBrun said Subban would have only worked here if Nashville ate $3mil-ish, so I don't think that was connected to Marner being OS'd.
Or would have worked for the Leafs if they didn't have Marner on the books...they would then easily have the full $9M available for Suban's contract plus the four 1sts in compensation for Marner.
Forget Subban, his is a Devil!
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 22, 2019, 05:32:22 PM

Welcome back, SI!

Thanks Herman.  It has been a while since I posted.  I popped in here and there to take the temperature of the fan base, but didn't really have time to post anything.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 22, 2019, 05:53:24 PM

Welcome back, SI!

Thanks Herman.  It has been a while since I posted.  I popped in here and there to take the temperature of the fan base, but didn't really have time to post anything.

Are you ready for the thread that threatens to dethrone the Stamkos thread this summer?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 22, 2019, 05:58:54 PM

Welcome back, SI!

Thanks Herman.  It has been a while since I posted.  I popped in here and there to take the temperature of the fan base, but didn't really have time to post anything.

Are you ready for the thread that threatens to dethrone the Stamkos thread this summer?

:-).  I don't know.  That Stamkos thread was something else. 

I feel they have to sign Marner.  He's the type of player you need to win a cup. I read an article today that say that Ferris likes to play these tactics of threatening to go to another team or go to the KHL in order to drive the price up for his client.  Personally I could do without the dog and pony show, and it would be nice if they could just get a deal worked out.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 22, 2019, 05:59:35 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.
I don't think Zaitsev goes for cheap. He played well with Muzz in the playoffs. I think we'll see Rosen and Liljegren up with the big club as our bottom pairing to start. Dermott can play the right side when he gets back. We also have Borgman on the Marlies and from the games I saw, I really liked him. He's tough, has some offensive flair and gets the puck out quickly. Sandin is a def lonshot but never say never. The kid is very smart.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: slapshot on June 22, 2019, 09:34:02 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.
I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 22, 2019, 10:21:21 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.
I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on June 22, 2019, 11:37:03 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.
I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!
There's also Marincin.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bonsixx on June 22, 2019, 11:47:39 PM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.
I don't think Zaitsev goes for cheap. He played well with Muzz in the playoffs. I think we'll see Rosen and Liljegren up with the big club as our bottom pairing to start. Dermott can play the right side when he gets back. We also have Borgman on the Marlies and from the games I saw, I really liked him. He's tough, has some offensive flair and gets the puck out quickly. Sandin is a def lonshot but never say never. The kid is very smart.
Last I heard on the subject, (grain of salt, because I didn't see much of the Marlies myself) Sandin has leapt ahead of Liljegren on the prospect chart.

Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 23, 2019, 01:40:51 AM
Sandin is very good but prone to young mistakes. I've seen him play a but this year and have to say I'm impressed. Hes very snart and usually makes the right decision. Liljegren I would say is more NHL ready fron a strength point of view. Borgman I believe from the games I saw is more ready for the heavy game. He plays tough and is vert good at moving and rushing the puck.  I really wouldn't be surprised to see him and Rosen up with the Leafs. Liljegren will def get a good look at training camp and I think has the best chance outside of Rosen, who we all think will be Gardiner's replacement, because he plays the right side. Im not as worried about the Leafs as sone others. Hainsey could be an option as well if he could come cheap and Babs plays him on the 3rd pairing.
Anyway the Leafs def have some very promising D prospects.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 23, 2019, 07:58:18 AM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.
I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

How is that fun?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on June 23, 2019, 08:28:42 AM
That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.
I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

How is that fun?
my usual sense of humour escapes me
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: AvroArrow on June 23, 2019, 09:05:59 AM
The likelihood of Sandin or Liljegren making the team, let alone making an impact or being top 4, is slim to none.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 23, 2019, 09:06:11 AM
Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

How is that fun?

Sarcasm?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on June 23, 2019, 10:09:01 AM
My Sunday before brunch thought....Just sign the frikken agreement already Mitch!
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on June 23, 2019, 10:59:11 AM

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 23, 2019, 11:32:36 AM
Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

How is that fun?

Sarcasm?

Mine roo
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on June 23, 2019, 11:59:23 AM

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.
That's what I was thinking too. No interest at all would be sweet.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 23, 2019, 12:40:33 PM
I would imagine any team with interest in Marner would be going hard after Panarin first. It's probably in Marner's interest to let the dust settle on Panarin and then negotiate.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 23, 2019, 01:01:24 PM

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.
That's what I was thinking too. No interest at all would be sweet.

I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 23, 2019, 03:14:57 PM

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.
That's what I was thinking too. No interest at all would be sweet.

I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.
We have no idea how the Matthews' negotiations went. One thing we do know, it was kept quiet from the Matthews/Leafs camps. We also don't know if the Leafs are hard balling Marner. What if they've offered 10 or 11 x 8 already? Would that be unfair? By all accounts he should be coming in around 9-9.5 million. Why should the Leafs overpay if they don't have to? Marner is an exceptional player but they are not equal.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 23, 2019, 03:57:28 PM

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.
That's what I was thinking too. No interest at all would be sweet.

I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.
We have no idea how the Matthews' negotiations went. One thing we do know, it was kept quiet from the Matthews/Leafs camps. We also don't know if the Leafs are hard balling Marner. What if they've offering 10 or 11 x 8 already? Would that be unfair? By all accounts he should be coming in around 9-9.5 million. Why should the Leafs overpay if they don't have to? Marner is an exceptional player but they are not equal.


He most likely wants 11.6x5 years. Highest paid winger in league history.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 23, 2019, 04:12:05 PM

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.
That's what I was thinking too. No interest at all would be sweet.

I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.
We have no idea how the Matthews' negotiations went. One thing we do know, it was kept quiet from the Matthews/Leafs camps. We also don't know if the Leafs are hard balling Marner. What if they've offered 10 or 11 x 8 already? Would that be unfair? By all accounts he should be coming in around 9-9.5 million. Why should the Leafs overpay if they don't have to? Marner is an exceptional player but they are not equal.


He most likely wants 11.6x5 years. Highest paid winger in league history.
That might earn him a ticket out of Dodge lol.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 23, 2019, 06:39:20 PM
I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.

What makes you think the Leafs have drawn any sort of line?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on June 23, 2019, 06:47:38 PM
I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.

What makes you think the Leafs have drawn any sort of line?
Or that it's in sand.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 23, 2019, 06:49:26 PM
Or even silica-based?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 23, 2019, 07:10:33 PM
I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.

Maybe it's just me but I don't think that free agents do a lot of negotiating. Especially not in a situation like this one. Realistically Marner's people will be going to various teams and saying "We want a certain number, the Leafs aren't willing to meet us there, will you offer it?".

For the teams, it's the easiest thing in the world to call up Marner's agent and make an offer. Good faith or not, if you're genuinely interested in offersheeting Marner all you can do is make your best offer and hope he takes it and the Leafs don't match. If he doesn't, you're not out anything and you're making the offer knowing that even if Marner is thrilled to sign with you the ultimate decision about where he plays next year isn't in his hands.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 23, 2019, 09:19:23 PM
I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.

What makes you think the Leafs have drawn any sort of line?

Well, I don't really have anything concrete to go on here.  Here is how I am looking at it, and maybe I am looking at it wrong.  The Matthews negotiation was done in February.  He signed a deal that made him the second highest paid player in the NHL, and they only bought up one year of unrestricted free agency.  By all accounts they didn't really dicker to much with Matthews.  I'm sure he asked for 13 million and only wanted to sign for 4 years, but if you think about it, the Leafs didn't really come down that much there.   They gave him what he wanted more or less.  He got the money he wanted and the term he wanted.

Early after the playoff defeat, there were plenty of people saying that Marner wanted a similar deal to the one that Matthews signed.  I think if they had offered the same deal, he would be signed by now.  However it looks like they are only willing to give Marner 11 million if he is willing to go 8 years.  So what is the hold up here?  These dealings seem to be much more acrimonious that the Matthews deal.  Why try this with Marner, and not Matthews?  Why not sign both of them at the same time to the same deal the same way Chicago did with Toews and Kane?   
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 23, 2019, 09:21:58 PM
Probably because the team does not see them as equivalent value.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 23, 2019, 09:25:24 PM
Probably because the team does not see them as equivalent value.

I guess I differ with the team on that then.  Probably why I don't agree with the path they are taking with Marner.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 23, 2019, 09:28:01 PM
However it looks like they are only willing to give Marner 11 million if he is willing to go 8 years.  So what is the hold up here?  These dealings seem to be much more acrimonious that the Matthews deal.  Why try this with Marner, and not Matthews?  Why not sign both of them at the same time to the same deal the same way Chicago did with Toews and Kane?   
We don't know what they're offering to Mitch and again we have no idea how the Matthews negotiations went. If the Leafs are offering 11 over 8 and Marner's camp is turning it down, then he'll be gone. He is not worth Matthews money, sorry. You take the centre and the goal scorer every time over the winger. That's 2 major ups he has on Marner.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 23, 2019, 09:33:13 PM
We don't know what they're offering to Mitch and again we have no idea how the Matthews negotiations went. If the Leafs are offering 11 over 8 and Marner's camp is turning it down, then he'll be gone. He is not worth Matthews money, sorry. You take the centre and the goal scorer every time over the winger. That's 2 major ups he has on Marner.

If Marner wants 11 over 8 he's not asking for Matthews money. Matthews got 11.6 over 5 and by most accounts the price tag on an 8 year deal would have been in the 13-14 range. Marner's price tag, if that is what he's asking, is substantially lower.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 23, 2019, 09:36:55 PM
However it looks like they are only willing to give Marner 11 million if he is willing to go 8 years.  So what is the hold up here?  These dealings seem to be much more acrimonious that the Matthews deal.  Why try this with Marner, and not Matthews?  Why not sign both of them at the same time to the same deal the same way Chicago did with Toews and Kane?   
We don't know what they're offering to Mitch and again we have no idea how the Matthews negotiations went. If the Leafs are offering 11 over 8 and Marner's camp is turning it down, then he'll be gone. He is not worth Matthews money, sorry. You take the centre and the goal scorer every time over the winger. That's 2 major ups he has on Marner.

The rumor is that they have offered 11 over 8, and Marner wants it for 5, and the Leafs are saying that if it's a 5 year deal then the contract has to be around 10.  That's just a rumor. 

So Chicago should have taken a hard line with Kane, but given Toews pretty much what he wanted?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 23, 2019, 09:43:30 PM
The rumor is that they have offered 11 over 8, and Marner wants it for 5, and the Leafs are saying that if it's a 5 year deal then the contract has to be around 10.  That's just a rumor. 

That rumoured was shot down by basically everyone credible, and was borne out of pure speculation.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 23, 2019, 09:50:39 PM


The rumor is that they have offered 11 over 8, and Marner wants it for 5, and the Leafs are saying that if it's a 5 year deal then the contract has to be around 10.  That's just a rumor. 

So Chicago should have taken a hard line with Kane, but given Toews pretty much what he wanted?
You're basing stuff off rumours. You and nobody outside of Dubas /Leafs and the Marner camp know for sure what's going on so stop with the hard line crap. Stop assuming they are because he hasn't signed yet. And again, we have no idea what Matthews asked for do we?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 23, 2019, 09:55:52 PM
The rumor is that they have offered 11 over 8, and Marner wants it for 5, and the Leafs are saying that if it's a 5 year deal then the contract has to be around 10.  That's just a rumor. 

That rumoured was shot down by basically everyone credible, and was borne out of pure speculation.

Sorry, I misunderstood what Dreger was saying on TSN.  I thought he had said that 11 million dollars had been discussed.

This is the followup tweet from Dreger:


I originally had read the rumour here:

https://puckprose.com/2019/06/20/nhl-rumors-mitch-marner-rejected-long-term-offer-maple-leafs/

Particularly this segment:

This report comes from Elliotte Friedman during a recent segment with Tim & Sid. The Leafs are reportedly willing to pay him $11 million, but only if the contract is a long-term one. Friedman said Marner would probably sign if it the term was shorter, but he doesnít seem too interested in a long-term deal.

So Dreger is saying that 11 million was never broached, but Friedman is.  Am I supposed to only believe one of those guys when it comes to rumours?  I have not seen anything from Bob McKenzie or Pierre Lebrun concerning the term and dollar amount for Marner's contract. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 23, 2019, 09:58:18 PM
Probably because the team does not see them as equivalent value.

I guess I differ with the team on that then.  Probably why I don't agree with the path they are taking with Marner.

Judging by how theyíve angled it so far, they see Marner somewhere between Matthews and Nylander, leaning closer to Nylander. Prior to the Tavares boost, they had Nylander around 6.5M in line with Ehlers and Pastrnak. Under the old RFA market, thatís fairly accurate.

Before we get into another Marner vs Nylander thing, remember that Marner has consistently received the cushiest wing gig for every season he has played. Not that he hasnít deserved it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 23, 2019, 10:01:23 PM


The rumor is that they have offered 11 over 8, and Marner wants it for 5, and the Leafs are saying that if it's a 5 year deal then the contract has to be around 10.  That's just a rumor. 

So Chicago should have taken a hard line with Kane, but given Toews pretty much what he wanted?
You're basing stuff off rumours. You and nobody outside of Dubas /Leafs and the Marner camp know for sure what's going on so stop with the hard line crap. Stop assuming they are because he hasn't signed yet. And again, we have no idea what Matthews asked for do we?

So Matthews is just a good guy and signed a deal real quick because he is awesome, loves Toronto and everything about the Maple Leafs but Marner is a bad egg destined to destroy this team with his greedy behaviour?

When negotiating a deal, there has to be a willingness from both sides to come to an agreement.  I'm basing this off of the fact that the Matthews deal was signed very quickly, and the Marner deal is not.  Also I am using the Nylander deal as a point of reference where it appeared that a team had a very specific dollar amount in mind for the player and would not come down from that.

I'll take rumours out of the equation then.  Dubas has said he wants Marner to be a Leaf, and Marner has said he wants to stay a Leaf, but a deal is not done.  So there is a disagreement about something there.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 23, 2019, 10:13:30 PM
Probably because the team does not see them as equivalent value.

I guess I differ with the team on that then.  Probably why I don't agree with the path they are taking with Marner.

Judging by how theyíve angled it so far, they see Marner somewhere between Matthews and Nylander, leaning closer to Nylander. Prior to the Tavares boost, they had Nylander around 6.5M in line with Ehlers and Pastrnak. Under the old RFA market, thatís fairly accurate.

Before we get into another Marner vs Nylander thing, remember that Marner has consistently received the cushiest wing gig for every season he has played. Not that he hasnít deserved it.

I agree with what you are saying Herman, but why did they make Matthews the highest paid player on the team?  Higher than the UFA center they signed in the offseason?  What has Matthews done so far that says he should be paid more than Tavares?

This article:

https://thehockeywriters.com/toronto-maple-leafs-auston-matthews-next-step/

shows the defensive stats for Matthews this last year, and it isn't anything spectacular.  I'm not saying he can't get better, or won't get better, but they signed him to a contract before he has actually shown that he is going to get better in that department and start to become this force at both ends of the ice.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 23, 2019, 10:28:04 PM
Second contracts are generally paying for potential based on past performance. UFA deals are different due to market forces.

This is the first time Tavares has created 40 goals. Matthews did it in his rookie year. He was more or less on pace for 40 in each of the past two seasons but cut short due to injury. Goal scoring centres (at even strength) are unicorns with wings (pegacorns?). He has warts in his defensive game for sure (as does McDavid and Eichel and Ovechkin etc) but thatís what dominant 20 year olds normally have to go through.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 23, 2019, 10:29:04 PM
The Leafs best centre by defensive measures is arguably Nylander lol.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 23, 2019, 10:39:05 PM
Second contracts are generally paying for potential based on past performance. UFA deals are different due to market forces.

This is the first time Tavares has created 40 goals. Matthews did it in his rookie year. He was more or less on pace for 40 in each of the past two seasons but cut short due to injury. Goal scoring centres (at even strength) are unicorns with wings (pegacorns?). He has warts in his defensive game for sure (as does McDavid and Eichel and Ovechkin etc) but thatís what dominant 20 year olds normally have to go through.

Right, but something doesn't quite jive there.  Stamkos is a better pure goal scorer than Crosby and McDavid, but both of them are regarded as the better players and have better contracts than him.  Also, Kucherov's deal pays him more than Stamkos.  So if there is a premium on goal scoring centers, shouldn't Stamkos be regarded higher?

I'm going to back up a bit because I think I am going down a bit of a rat hole.  Regardless of what the dollar or term amount of the contracts are, there seems to be a favoritism towards Matthews.  It started in the first year of their contracts when they didn't give Marner bonuses but they gave them to Matthews.  I guess one could argue that it was because Matthews was a first overall pick and Marner was 4th.

I don't understand that favoritism because, to date, I fail to see what Matthews has brought to the table that Marner hasn't?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 23, 2019, 10:45:36 PM
Re Stamkos and Kucherov: itís all timing and age. Kucherov generates huge numbers on a severely underpaid RFA deal. Tampa is paying for it now with this mega deal.

Stamkos is a purer scorer but his centering is questionable. Heís a winger at this stage in his career and his goal scoring has been largely PP and the bulk of it was during his RFA years.

What youíre seeing re: Matthews vs Marner is the reality of goals vs playmaking. The thing that Matthews has over Marner and nearly every other player in the league (in spades) is shooting the puck into the net (at even strength).
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 23, 2019, 10:58:44 PM
Right, but something doesn't quite jive there.  Stamkos is a better pure goal scorer than Crosby and McDavid, but both of them are regarded as the better players and have better contracts than him.  Also, Kucherov's deal pays him more than Stamkos.  So if there is a premium on goal scoring centers, shouldn't Stamkos be regarded higher?

I'm going to back up a bit because I think I am going down a bit of a rat hole.  Regardless of what the dollar or term amount of the contracts are, there seems to be a favoritism towards Matthews.  It started in the first year of their contracts when they didn't give Marner bonuses but they gave them to Matthews.  I guess one could argue that it was because Matthews was a first overall pick and Marner was 4th.

I don't understand that favoritism because, to date, I fail to see what Matthews has brought to the table that Marner hasn't?

Well, ignoring that Stamkos's goal scoring rate is only about 10% better than Crosby, Crosby and McDavid are unquestionably better players.

I generally don't buy into the whole "centers are more valuable" mantra, but will admit there's evidence in favour of it. However, when you've got players of Ovechkin, Kucherov, or Kane's talent, they get paid on par with equally talented centres. But with Matthews and Marner, I would without hesitation pay Matthews more. Marner's an elite talent and deserves to be paid as such; but Matthews to me is more valuable without question. Game is on the line and you can pick one player to put on the ice: it's Matthews every time.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 24, 2019, 12:02:05 AM
Re Stamkos and Kucherov: itís all timing and age. Kucherov generates huge numbers on a severely underpaid RFA deal. Tampa is paying for it now with this mega deal.

Stamkos is a purer scorer but his centering is questionable. Heís a winger at this stage in his career and his goal scoring has been largely PP and the bulk of it was during his RFA years.

What youíre seeing re: Matthews vs Marner is the reality of goals vs playmaking. The thing that Matthews has over Marner and nearly every other player in the league (in spades) is shooting the puck into the net (at even strength).

They don't have to value goals over playmaking.  They don't have to treat Marner differently than Matthews.  That's just how they are deciding to go through the negotiations.   

Well, ignoring that Stamkos's goal scoring rate is only about 10% better than Crosby, Crosby and McDavid are unquestionably better players.

I generally don't buy into the whole "centers are more valuable" mantra, but will admit there's evidence in favour of it. However, when you've got players of Ovechkin, Kucherov, or Kane's talent, they get paid on par with equally talented centres. But with Matthews and Marner, I would without hesitation pay Matthews more. Marner's an elite talent and deserves to be paid as such; but Matthews to me is more valuable without question. Game is on the line and you can pick one player to put on the ice: it's Matthews every time.

Not sure I agree with that.  I remember a Florida game where they were down by two late in the game and Marner tied the game with two goals with less than 2 minutes remaining.

Regardless, I would say that in most situations where it matters, i.e. playoffs, when the game is on the line, you typically throw 5, and sometimes 6, guys on to the ice, so why not have 2 people that can break open a game on the ice?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 24, 2019, 07:11:05 AM
They don't have to value goals over playmaking.  They don't have to treat Marner differently than Matthews.  That's just how they are deciding to go through the negotiations.

Iím not one to lean on tradition or historicity for its own sake, but goals have always been valued higher in this game because of its mechanics. The literal win mechanism is scoring more goals than the other team, so the player who has demonstrated that he can singlehandedly (at times) put the puck into the net is going to have more value. Even the nicest pass in the world still needs to be converted by someone doing the work of eluding his check, getting to the hardest spaces and making sufficient contact with the moving puck in such a way that it goes around or through the guy dedicated to stopping such things.

Specifically to the Leafs, Marnerís output could be 85-95% covered by Nylander in the same deployment (maybe even exceeded, because weíve never seen what Willy on PP1 looks like). Should Marner be paid 4-5M AAV more than Nylander? No one is going to come close to Matthewsí production other than Tavares.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 24, 2019, 08:23:18 AM
This report comes from Elliotte Friedman during a recent segment with Tim & Sid. The Leafs are reportedly willing to pay him $11 million, but only if the contract is a long-term one. Friedman said Marner would probably sign if it the term was shorter, but he doesnít seem too interested in a long-term deal.

So Dreger is saying that 11 million was never broached, but Friedman is.  Am I supposed to only believe one of those guys when it comes to rumours?  I have not seen anything from Bob McKenzie or Pierre Lebrun concerning the term and dollar amount for Marner's contract.

You can believe both, since Friedman isn't saying $11M was offered, but, rather, he believes the Leafs would be willing to go there if Marner were willing to sign a longer-term deal.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: mr grieves on June 24, 2019, 08:36:48 AM
Right, but something doesn't quite jive there.  Stamkos is a better pure goal scorer than Crosby and McDavid, but both of them are regarded as the better players and have better contracts than him.  Also, Kucherov's deal pays him more than Stamkos.  So if there is a premium on goal scoring centers, shouldn't Stamkos be regarded higher?

Matthews contract is, imo, really simple. He's very nearly without peer. He's a better pure goal scorer than any of the names you've listed above and, in his first three seasons, he outperformed everyone in the league not named Ovechkin -- and there, at 5v5, he's only behind by a hair. Ovi signed a 13-year contract under the last CBA at ~17% of the cap. Matthews's at ~14% is pretty much right.

Marner, on the other hand, has a lot of peers. They're all great players, but none of them have made 13% on the cap on a second contract, and, as much as people are saying it's a new market and RFAs are getting paid, until one of them actually does** -- it isn't. 

** the one who's in the same league as Marner: Eichel, Buffalo's franchise center. So, at this point, we can say that when a team is sufficiently talent-starved it'll pay the best player it's got over 13%.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 24, 2019, 10:56:36 AM
Just a gentle reminder from Dreger!

?s=21
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 24, 2019, 11:00:56 AM
Just a gentle reminder from Dreger!

?s=21

Dreger today: Marner will be visiting multiple teams
Dreger yesterday: Marner will be visiting multiple teams
Dreger 2 days ago: Marner will be visiting multiple teams
Dreger 3 days ago: Marner will be visiting multi
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 24, 2019, 11:30:03 AM
Just a gentle reminder from Dreger!

?s=21

Dreger today: Marner will be visiting multiple teams
Dreger yesterday: Marner will be visiting multiple teams
Dreger 2 days ago: Marner will be visiting multiple teams
Dreger 3 days ago: Marner will be visiting multi


There's a #BlockDreger movement from Leafs fans getting going on Twitter.  ;D
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 24, 2019, 11:50:16 AM

Burke doesn't usually play the role of "insider" so I don't know how much stock to put in this, but he says he heard Marner turned down 8 years/$80mil.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 24, 2019, 12:50:01 PM

Burke doesn't usually play the role of "insider" so I don't know how much stock to put in this, but he says he heard Marner turned down 8 years/$80mil.

He probably wants 5 years same as Matthews.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 24, 2019, 12:53:00 PM
The initial tweet is about Duchene, but the rest of the thread has a lot of Marner speculation from Friedman and CJ.

This is the fun one. These two also know Dubas better than Marner does due to their time with him on the Marlies.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: cabber24 on June 24, 2019, 01:07:03 PM
The initial tweet is about Duchene, but the rest of the thread has a lot of Marner speculation from Friedman and CJ.

This is the fun one. These two also know Dubas better than Marner does due to their time with him on the Marlies.
The opportunity to play with the caliber of linemates in Toronto will get them paid if they take bridge deals.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 24, 2019, 01:28:02 PM
The more I think about it, the more I wonder if Marner will find that other teams aren't offering a significantly better deal than the Leafs. A lot of teams will be put off by the idea of giving up four 1st round picks as compensation, which would serve to put a cap on their offers. Combined with the cap not rising as high as was expected, I suspect it won't be long before the Marner camp learns that the huge offer they're hoping for isn't out there.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 24, 2019, 01:32:55 PM
The more I think about it, the more I wonder if Marner will find that other teams aren't offering a significantly better deal than the Leafs. A lot of teams will be put off by the idea of giving up four 1st round picks as compensation, which would serve to put a cap on their offers. Combined with the cap not rising as high as was expected, I suspect it won't be long before the Marner camp learns that the huge offer they're hoping for isn't out there.

But it's still a huge offer! That's what I don't understand. It's not like he's getting squeezed here!
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 01:37:23 PM
The more I think about it, the more I wonder if Marner will find that other teams aren't offering a significantly better deal than the Leafs. A lot of teams will be put off by the idea of giving up four 1st round picks as compensation, which would serve to put a cap on their offers. Combined with the cap not rising as high as was expected, I suspect it won't be long before the Marner camp learns that the huge offer they're hoping for isn't out there.

If the issue now is term rather than cap dollars though someone might be willing to make the 5 year offer he wants. A five year deal at just under the 4 1st round threshold might be exactly the term and money he wants and would be fairly attractive to teams if all they'd lose is two firsts, a second and a third.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 01:54:57 PM
But it's still a huge offer! That's what I don't understand. It's not like he's getting squeezed here!

I think the issue now, and what it was with Matthews, was how do you value the UFA years you're buying. Because, like it or not, the Leafs did just sort of play a big role in establishing just how valuable those UFA years can be for elite players. Tavares, a top 15 or 20 player in the league, got offered 13 million dollars a year as a UFA or the most money in the league. If you're Matthews or Marner, why wouldn't you look to that and try to value your UFA years appropriately?

A lot of people have balked at the idea of Marner at 11 million per but if you include 3 or 4 UFA years it becomes more reasonable. Right? Because if you value UFA years at 13 per then the break down is more like

Years: 1-4, four years at 9 m per
Years: 5-8, four years at 13 million per

So still an 8 year, 11 million dollar deal but at a RFA rate that seems fairly reasonable and then a UFA rate that, while it may seem high, seems hard to argue with in light about what we know about the UFA market.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 24, 2019, 02:07:47 PM
If the issue now is term rather than cap dollars though someone might be willing to make the 5 year offer he wants. A five year deal at just under the 4 1st round threshold might be exactly the term and money he wants and would be fairly attractive to teams if all they'd lose is two firsts, a second and a third.

That's an instant match though for the Leafs considering the low compensation, so we get back to the question of will a team make an offer sheet they know won't succeed. And historically that seems like a no.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 02:13:37 PM
If the issue now is term rather than cap dollars though someone might be willing to make the 5 year offer he wants. A five year deal at just under the 4 1st round threshold might be exactly the term and money he wants and would be fairly attractive to teams if all they'd lose is two firsts, a second and a third.

That's an instant match though for the Leafs considering the low compensation, so we get back to the question of will a team make an offer sheet they know won't succeed. And historically that seems like a no.

Yup and I'm still 75/25 or 80/20 that you're right. There's a small nagging part of me though that says something's slightly different these days and especially with regards to the Leafs.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 24, 2019, 02:18:22 PM
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 24, 2019, 02:19:06 PM
Yup and I'm still 75/25 or 80/20 that you're right. There's a small nagging part of me though that says something's slightly different these days and especially with regards to the Leafs.

Just to clarify, do you mean you think Toronto might not match that, or that a team might offer it knowing it won't succeed just to mess with the Leafs? I can see the latter, but not the former.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 02:24:59 PM
Yup and I'm still 75/25 or 80/20 that you're right. There's a small nagging part of me though that says something's slightly different these days and especially with regards to the Leafs.

Just to clarify, do you mean you think Toronto might not match that, or that a team might offer it knowing it won't succeed just to mess with the Leafs? I can see the latter, but not the former.

Well, except look at what Herman just posted. If the Leafs were ultimately willing to swallow 10.5/5 why not just get it done? I appreciate digging in your heels to try and get a better deal but if Ferris is confident he can get that offer sheet it seems to me you might as well just bite the bullet and accept that as Marner's market value.

But to more directly answer your question, I think it's sort of a combination of the two. If we can all agree that 10.5/5 is an easy match for the Leafs, which means that it would be a good deal for the teams floating it in the very unlikely event it wouldn't be matched, then I wouldn't put it past a team to pursue it. They can rationalize it with "We'd be really thrilled to get Marner at this price" while worst-case scenario is they force the Leafs to accept a deal they'd prefer to negotiate down.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 02:39:03 PM

As a side note: there's probably going to be a lot of "Woe is us, how come this always happens to the Leafs" when(if?) Marner signs a deal here nobody is entirely thrilled with but when's the last time a significant deal was signed in the NHL that people came away from saying "Wow, what a great deal for the team?"


The Erik Karlsson deal was a lot of money and term for a guy his age/injury history, the Hayes and Skinner deals both struck me as high, I know some people like the Eberle deal for the Islanders but that's predicated on a big return to form.

Can anyone think of one?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 24, 2019, 02:47:48 PM

As a side note: there's probably going to be a lot of "Woe is us, how come this always happens to the Leafs" when(if?) Marner signs a deal here nobody is entirely thrilled with but when's the last time a significant deal was signed in the NHL that people came away from saying "Wow, what a great deal for the team?"


The Erik Karlsson deal was a lot of money and term for a guy his age/injury history, the Hayes and Skinner deals both struck me as high, I know some people like the Eberle deal for the Islanders but that's predicated on a big return to form.

Can anyone think of one?

Assuming Kucherov's doesn't count, I'd probably have to go as far back as Fall 2017 when Pasta and Eichel signed theirs.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 02:51:12 PM
Assuming Kucherov's doesn't count, I'd probably have to go as far back as Fall 2017 when Pasta and Eichel signed theirs.

No, all of the Tampa ones count. I think we can agree they're at the very least in a unique situation though.

Pastrnak I'd give you but I think there were a lot of people critical of the Eichel deal for Buffalo. More than a few people here rejected it as a comparison for our own guys because they thought Buffalo just caved to his demands.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 24, 2019, 02:52:35 PM
Pastrnak I'd give you but I think there were a lot of people critical of the Eichel deal for Buffalo. More than a few people here rejected it as a comparison for our own guys because they thought Buffalo just caved to his demands.

Yeah. In hindsight, Eichel's contract looks good, but, at the time, it felt like an overpayment.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 24, 2019, 03:35:29 PM
The more I think about it, the more I wonder if Marner will find that other teams aren't offering a significantly better deal than the Leafs. A lot of teams will be put off by the idea of giving up four 1st round picks as compensation, which would serve to put a cap on their offers. Combined with the cap not rising as high as was expected, I suspect it won't be long before the Marner camp learns that the huge offer they're hoping for isn't out there.

If I was Dubas, I'd make a show of meeting with Panarin the instant the negotiating period starts (which he should do for due diligence anyway.)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 24, 2019, 03:38:27 PM
If I was Dubas, I'd make a show of meeting with Panarin the instant the negotiating period starts (which he should do for due diligence anyway.)

So, yesterday or today? Because, the UFA interview period is open.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 24, 2019, 03:40:20 PM
Well, yesterday of course. So the instant yesterday starts, he should talk with him.  ;)

hehe, I had June 26 stuck in my mind for some reason.
edit: because June 26 is the RFA negotiating start date.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 24, 2019, 03:43:31 PM
Well, yesterday of course. So the instant yesterday starts, he should talk with him.  ;)

hehe, I had June 26 stuck in my mind for some reason.
edit: because June 26 is the RFA negotiating start date.

That's cause Darren Dreger aka Paul Marner has that date stamped on your brain as the date Marner can hop planes to go and talk to other teams
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 24, 2019, 03:49:01 PM
Why would he get on the plane? They should be giving him his due respect and come supplicating at his feet on hands and knees.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 24, 2019, 03:52:49 PM
Why would he get on the plane? They should be giving him his due respect and come supplicating at his feet on hands and knees.
It's better for the dog and pony show to have Mitch waiving at Pearson as he gets on.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 24, 2019, 04:00:41 PM
Why would he get on the plane? They should be giving him his due respect and come supplicating at his feet on hands and knees.

Seems like more of a "we will take a meeting" from teams rather than we want a meeting. I think they can see the program unfold.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on June 24, 2019, 05:39:50 PM
Man, this getting uglier and uglier.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 24, 2019, 06:27:36 PM
?s=12

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 24, 2019, 06:35:51 PM
?s=12


Good luck to him....
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 06:40:13 PM

I said this during the Nylander stuff but people really need to wise up to what being a RFA means. It doesn't mean you owe your team service time, it doesn't mean you're any less likely to want to leave or get your market value, it doesn't mean you're under some sort of contract...

Literally all it means is the team can match any outside contract you sign. That's it. That GMs have decided to kill the RFA market has worked to their advantage but it doesn't make the labour of younger players less valuable than that of UFAs.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 24, 2019, 06:48:04 PM

I said this during the Nylander stuff but people really need to wise up to what being a RFA means. It doesn't mean you owe your team service time, it doesn't mean you're any less likely to want to leave or get your market value, it doesn't mean you're under some sort of contract...

Literally all it means is the team can match any outside contract you sign. That's it. That GMs have decided to kill the RFA market has worked to their advantage but it doesn't make the labour of younger players less valuable than that of UFAs.
Am I missing something we don't already know? What's your point?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 06:50:32 PM
Am I missing something we don't already know? What's your point?

That many people don't tend to act like this is true during contentious RFA negotiations
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 24, 2019, 06:57:24 PM
Am I missing something we don't already know? What's your point?

That many people don't tend to act like this is true during contentious RFA negotiations
Been a long day...Act like what?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 07:01:42 PM
Been a long day...Act like what?

No no, What's the guy on Second Base. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 24, 2019, 07:05:10 PM
Been a long day...Act like what?

No no, What's the guy on Second Base. 
Haha.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 24, 2019, 07:51:30 PM

(https://media.giphy.com/media/yr7n0u3qzO9nG/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 24, 2019, 08:08:08 PM

(https://media.giphy.com/media/yr7n0u3qzO9nG/giphy.gif)
Hahaha. This is getting entertaining now!
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 24, 2019, 08:18:21 PM

(https://media.giphy.com/media/yr7n0u3qzO9nG/giphy.gif)

Iím not sure I completely buy into that, but, at the same time, i do think most GMs are hesitant to reopen the offer sheet box.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on June 24, 2019, 08:24:34 PM
Iím not sure I completely buy into that, but, at the same time, i do think most GMs are hesitant to reopen the offer sheet box.

I'm trying to think of something specific that the Leafs could do that would terrify anyone.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: TML fan on June 24, 2019, 08:31:29 PM
Buy the Oilers and trade McDavid to themselves?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 24, 2019, 08:32:45 PM
Iím not sure I completely buy into that, but, at the same time, i do think most GMs are hesitant to reopen the offer sheet box.

I'm trying to think of something specific that the Leafs could do that would terrify anyone.

They could offer sheet Rantanen, and come away without an real talent loss, but 4 upgraded draft picks.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: TML fan on June 24, 2019, 08:34:44 PM
They can't offer sheet Rantanen can they? Don't they need to have all of their own picks?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 24, 2019, 08:39:06 PM
They can't offer sheet Rantanen can they? Don't they need to have all of their own picks?

When thereís multiple picks in the same round involved, teams get an extra year to complete the requirements. They could still make it work.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on June 24, 2019, 08:40:35 PM
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Deebo on June 24, 2019, 08:44:37 PM
Iím not sure I completely buy into that, but, at the same time, i do think most GMs are hesitant to reopen the offer sheet box.

I'm trying to think of something specific that the Leafs could do that would terrify anyone.

They could offer sheet Rantanen, and come away without an real talent loss, but 4 upgraded draft picks.

If the Leafs were willing to sign Rantanen to an offer sheet big enough that the Avs wouldn't match, they'd probably just match whatever this hypothetical offersheet it is that Marner had signed rather than risk the Avs matching.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on June 24, 2019, 09:19:21 PM
Friedman is going full Dreger with a statement like that.

I'm still on the fence on if I'd rather have $10m in cap space and 4 first round picks (as currency) vs. having Marner, given the current makeup of the the Leafs.

Honestly, should I not be?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Chris on June 24, 2019, 09:31:36 PM
Friedman is going full Dreger with a statement like that.

I'm still on the fence on if I'd rather have $10m in cap space and 4 first round picks (as currency) vs. having Marner, given the current makeup of the the Leafs.

Honestly, should I not be?
I go back and forth on this topic. You could potentially do a lot to improve the team with 10$million+ in cap space and 4 additional first round picks. Even if we sign Marner to a "reasonable" contract, the defense is still scary.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 24, 2019, 09:34:14 PM
Friedman is going full Dreger with a statement like that.

I'm still on the fence on if I'd rather have $10m in cap space and 4 first round picks (as currency) vs. having Marner, given the current makeup of the the Leafs.

Honestly, should I not be?
It's a fair way to think. 10 mill should buy you a number 1 d man and 4 1st can help refill the cupboards and use for trade bait. The dynamics up front does change a lot though without him. I think the Leafs end up being fine either way.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 09:41:04 PM
I think people may be so caught up in recency bias because of the Tavares signing that they're misrepresenting what cap space actually means. How often are legit #1 defensemen available on the free agent market? Even if they are, what's the guarantee you can sign one even if you offer the most money(which 10 million may or may not be)? Will it be next year? The year after that? Will they get one before Tavares hits 30?

If you want to turn Marner into a defenseman, sign him and take another shot at it with this group. If you think you're too thin on the back end, try and trade him where you can actually control the return you get back instead of hoping that Vancouver's 2023 first round pick is a valuable trade chip.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 24, 2019, 09:53:59 PM

Words are wind.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 24, 2019, 10:02:41 PM

(https://media.giphy.com/media/yr7n0u3qzO9nG/giphy.gif)


Dubas doesn't strike me as a hothead who would turn around and offer sheet another team cause he got offer sheeted. It would have to make sense to do it. What is this a double U-turn on amazing race?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 24, 2019, 10:07:08 PM
He doesnít have to offer sheet anyone. He could out pay you on your best scouts.

Dubas can do the cold-blooded thing too. Thereís a reason Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen jumped to sign deals immediately after Dubas said he isnít going to blindly match offersheets.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 24, 2019, 10:50:22 PM
I think people may be so caught up in recency bias because of the Tavares signing that they're misrepresenting what cap space actually means. How often are legit #1 defensemen available on the free agent market? Even if they are, what's the guarantee you can sign one even if you offer the most money(which 10 million may or may not be)? Will it be next year? The year after that? Will they get one before Tavares hits 30?

If you want to turn Marner into a defenseman, sign him and take another shot at it with this group. If you think you're too thin on the back end, try and trade him where you can actually control the return you get back instead of hoping that Vancouver's 2023 first round pick is a valuable trade chip.
Wasn't necessarily referring to the UFA market. Was thinking more trade market. With 10 mil in cap space and the 4 1sts, the Leafs could easily put a deal together to get a top D man. They probably would have had Subban right now if that was the case.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 24, 2019, 11:04:53 PM
I'm trying to think of something specific that the Leafs could do that would terrify anyone.

Point or McAvoy. Even if their team matches the deal (which they almost certainly would) it could still potentially really disrupt the perfect cap situations they've got going on.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 24, 2019, 11:07:33 PM
He doesnít have to offer sheet anyone. He could out pay you on your best scouts.

Dubas can do the cold-blooded thing too. Thereís a reason Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen jumped to sign deals immediately after Dubas said he isnít going to blindly match offersheets.

Is that reason "coincidence"? Truthfully, it might have had some minor influence, but I doubt it moved the needle or timeline much. Players are not going to sign offer sheets without being prepared for their existing team to walk away.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 24, 2019, 11:10:32 PM
He doesnít have to offer sheet anyone. He could out pay you on your best scouts.

Dubas can do the cold-blooded thing too. Thereís a reason Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen jumped to sign deals immediately after Dubas said he isnít going to blindly match offersheets.

Is that reason "coincidence"? Truthfully, it might have had some minor influence, but I doubt it moved the needle or timeline much. Players are not going to sign offer sheets without being prepared for their existing team to walk away.

Yeah I don't think that effected Johnsson/Kappy much, especially since both their rumoured deals are more in the "fair" category than "steals".
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 11:21:33 PM
Wasn't necessarily referring to the UFA market. Was thinking more trade market. With 10 mil in cap space and the 4 1sts, the Leafs could easily put a deal together to get a top D man. They probably would have had Subban right now if that was the case.

Even then, I dispute the idea of them being able to do it easily. Top tier defensemen aren't available for any price usually and in the last few examples where they got moved it was cases where there's real questions about their health/long-term viability.

Not to put too fine a point on it but I wouldn't have even looked at a Subban for Marner deal.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 24, 2019, 11:24:36 PM
He doesnít have to offer sheet anyone. He could out pay you on your best scouts.

Dubas can do the cold-blooded thing too. Thereís a reason Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen jumped to sign deals immediately after Dubas said he isnít going to blindly match offersheets.

Is that reason "coincidence"? Truthfully, it might have had some minor influence, but I doubt it moved the needle or timeline much. Players are not going to sign offer sheets without being prepared for their existing team to walk away.

Yeah, I don't think anyone is signing an offer sheet as some sort of ruse to force their team's hand.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: BrownRolo on June 24, 2019, 11:24:44 PM
How are Leafs going to offer sheet a player when they don't have their 2020 first rounder?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 25, 2019, 12:00:09 AM
How are Leafs going to offer sheet a player when they don't have their 2020 first rounder?
This is all based on if Marner signs an offer sheet of 4 1sts.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: BrownRolo on June 25, 2019, 12:03:19 AM
How are Leafs going to offer sheet a player when they don't have their 2020 first rounder?
This is all based on if Marner signs an offer sheet of 4 1sts.

They have to be your own 1sts. So...Yeah no offer sheet coming from the Leafs.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 12:08:49 AM
How are Leafs going to offer sheet a player when they don't have their 2020 first rounder?
This is all based on if Marner signs an offer sheet of 4 1sts.

They have to be your own 1sts. So...Yeah no offer sheet coming from the Leafs.

I don't think that's true:

Quote
The team submitting the offer sheet has to have all of the required compensation picks, and they have to be their own picks. They have to be picks for the next draft (so 2020) unless they are required to have two picks of the same round. Then they can have two of the next three yearís picks to offer.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/5/3/18528900/nhl-offer-sheet-compensation-for-next-season-contracts-rfa-point-rantanen-but-not-marner (https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/5/3/18528900/nhl-offer-sheet-compensation-for-next-season-contracts-rfa-point-rantanen-but-not-marner)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: BrownRolo on June 25, 2019, 12:17:43 AM
How are Leafs going to offer sheet a player when they don't have their 2020 first rounder?
This is all based on if Marner signs an offer sheet of 4 1sts.

They have to be your own 1sts. So...Yeah no offer sheet coming from the Leafs.

I don't think that's true:

Quote
The team submitting the offer sheet has to have all of the required compensation picks, and they have to be their own picks. They have to be picks for the next draft (so 2020) unless they are required to have two picks of the same round. Then they can have two of the next three yearís picks to offer.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/5/3/18528900/nhl-offer-sheet-compensation-for-next-season-contracts-rfa-point-rantanen-but-not-marner (https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/5/3/18528900/nhl-offer-sheet-compensation-for-next-season-contracts-rfa-point-rantanen-but-not-marner)

Says in the quote you just posted it has to be their own picks.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 12:21:38 AM
Says in the quote you just posted it has to be their own picks.

Right but also that if the comp includes multiple picks in the same round a team can do it by owning two of their next three picks. The Leafs do own two of their next three firsts.

Seriously, just read the two sentences after what you bolded.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: BrownRolo on June 25, 2019, 12:27:05 AM
Says in the quote you just posted it has to be their own picks.

Right but also that if the comp includes multiple picks in the same round a team can do it by owning two of their next three picks. The Leafs do own two of their next three firsts.

Seriously, just read the two sentences after what you bolded.

I read that as pertaining to "They have to be picks for the next draft (2020) unless..."

My impression is you need your own teams picks first or it's a nogo.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 12:28:58 AM
I read that as pertaining to "They have to be picks for the next draft (2020) unless..."

Right, and the two higher end offer sheet compensations meet that criteria of requiring multiple picks in a round(either 4 1sts or 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd).
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: BrownRolo on June 25, 2019, 12:40:02 AM
I read that as pertaining to "They have to be picks for the next draft (2020) unless..."

Right, and the two higher end offer sheet compensations meet that criteria of requiring multiple picks in a round(either 4 1sts or 2 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd).

So you're saying the Leafs can offer sheet a player and don't even need to give a 2020 1st rounder?

They just give a 2021 and 2022?

I think you're reading that incorrectly or its worded poorly.

From a Sportsnet article a year ago:

Quote
If the compensation demands multiple picks from the same round, the signing team must have the pick in the upcoming draft, and then any additional picks covered in the subsequent years. For instance, if compensation is two first-round picks, the signing team must have its own first-rounder in 2019 and 2020 (since the signing period began July 1, after this yearís draft).

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-offer-sheets-work-six-players-get-one/ (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-offer-sheets-work-six-players-get-one/)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 01:13:45 AM
So you're saying the Leafs can offer sheet a player and don't even need to give a 2020 1st rounder?

They just give a 2021 and 2022?

I think you're reading that incorrectly or its worded poorly.

Nope, I'm fairly sure I've got this one right. I'm reading directly from the CBA(Article 10.4) now:

Quote
Clubs owing two (2) draft picks in the same round, must have them available in the next three (3) drafts.

Clubs owing three (3) draft picks in the same round, must have them available in the next four (4) drafts and so on.

When a club owes two (2) draft picks in the same round, the signing Club does not elect the years in which such selections shall be awarded to the Prior Club; rather the selections next available will be transferred to the Prior Club.


https://www.nhlpa.com/the-pa/cba (https://www.nhlpa.com/the-pa/cba)

Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: BrownRolo on June 25, 2019, 02:01:15 AM
I don't know then. It seems crazy that the Leafs could offersheet say Tkachuk at 5 years for 9.5 and the Flames would have to wait until 2021 to even draft.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2019, 08:37:38 AM

I have a very, very hard time believing this but if Aho gets anything less than $8mil on a long-term deal after what we're going through here I might throw something.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 25, 2019, 08:40:54 AM
We should just let Mitch take an offer sheet and sheet Aho instead.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: L K on June 25, 2019, 08:41:51 AM

I have a very, very hard time believing this but if Aho gets anything less than $8mil on a long-term deal after what we're going through here I might throw something.

Rantanen is going to the be the one contract that for me is going to drive me nuts if he comes in under Marner.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2019, 08:42:58 AM
Rantanen is going to the be the one contract that for me is going to drive me nuts if he comes in under Marner.

You mean when he comes in under Marner.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2019, 08:45:33 AM
I don't know then. It seems crazy that the Leafs could offersheet say Tkachuk at 5 years for 9.5 and the Flames would have to wait until 2021 to even draft.

Depending on your view of RFA "rights" it can be viewed as crazy that they get any compensation at all for a free agent.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 09:19:21 AM
Rantanen is going to the be the one contract that for me is going to drive me nuts if he comes in under Marner.

I'd be the first to admit that I haven't seen a ton of Avalanche games but I'm at least a little suspicious of Rantanen and what he could do without a post-breakout Mackinnon on his line. Obviously Marner's never been in a terrible situation himself but he did score 70 points or so with Bozak-JVR. Marner outscored Rantanen last year on a significantly less good offensive line with significantly less PP time.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: cabber24 on June 25, 2019, 10:08:07 AM
Why is TB tax situation incentive for players to sign for less but Toronto's endorsement opportunities isn't taken into consideration? Didn't Canadian Tire present at the Stamkos meeting with Toronto. Can the team offer 8-years at $8M + 8-years at $5M Canadian Tire endorsement contract? Marner is so likable the number of endorsements he could make by playing for the Leafs has to be higher than he could get elsewhere.

EDIT: Found this article. I am surprised how low the endorsement amounts are.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#426e8da95871 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2018-19-connor-mcdavid-on-top-at-19-million/#426e8da95871)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 25, 2019, 10:21:55 AM
Welcome to Mitch Marner signing day!

I've decided to be optimistic today.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 25, 2019, 10:27:24 AM
Found this article. I am surprised how low the endorsement amounts are.

The size of the Canadian market isn't big enough to warrant the kinds of endorsement amounts people want to believe are available - especially when you're talking about guys who don't have universal recognition. Even with as popular as hockey is in Canada, there's still a large portion of the population that aren't fans or don't follow the NHL enough for an endorsement from a player to have an impact on their shopping patterns.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 10:55:32 AM
Found this article. I am surprised how low the endorsement amounts are.

The size of the Canadian market isn't big enough to warrant the kinds of endorsement amounts people want to believe are available - especially when you're talking about guys who don't have universal recognition. Even with as popular as hockey is in Canada, there's still a large portion of the population that aren't fans or don't follow the NHL enough for an endorsement from a player to have an impact on their shopping patterns.

You don't think Marner and Matthews could make enough to offset tax savings of Florida? I say absolutely they do.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 10:56:08 AM
Found this article. I am surprised how low the endorsement amounts are.

The size of the Canadian market isn't big enough to warrant the kinds of endorsement amounts people want to believe are available - especially when you're talking about guys who don't have universal recognition. Even with as popular as hockey is in Canada, there's still a large portion of the population that aren't fans or don't follow the NHL enough for an endorsement from a player to have an impact on their shopping patterns.

And as I've said before, players on Canadian teams are in a tricky situation where fanbases are very passionate but also very regional. Does a Leafs player's endorsement carry weight in Vancouver or Montreal? National team players like Crosby and Toews seem to do as well as anyone in the Canadian market with endorsements so the idea that playing in Canada or Toronto greatly increases the amount of money you can make via advertisements is at best unfounded.

And that's even before we get to the conversation about the idea that, somehow, the Leafs should benefit from a player's personal marketability.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: RedLeaf on June 25, 2019, 11:01:34 AM
Welcome to Mitch Marner signing day!

I've decided to be optimistic today.

Letís hope itís soon. I purchased a $350 Mitch Marner framed photo and itís still sitting in the box it shipped in in my basement . Not taking it out and hanging it up until he signs.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 25, 2019, 11:09:35 AM
You don't think Marner and Matthews could make enough to offset tax savings of Florida? I say absolutely they do.

The actual available numbers for player endorsement income says no, absolutely not. Only the Crosbys and McDavids of the world do.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2019, 11:11:45 AM
You don't think Marner and Matthews could make enough to offset tax savings of Florida? I say absolutely they do.

The actual available numbers for player endorsement income says no, absolutely not.

I guess you could say this about a lot of things, but honestly talking about endorsement money or tax savings is such a waste of time. We really don't have concrete figures about how much players make on endorsements or how much they actually pay in taxes.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 11:19:02 AM
I guess you could say this about a lot of things, but honestly talking about endorsement money or tax savings is such a waste of time. We really don't have concrete figures about how much players make on endorsements or how much they actually pay in taxes.

I think that's correct if we were talking about specifics but I think it's pretty reasonable to say that, generally speaking, the difference in endorsement money for a player in Toronto vs. a similar player in another market isn't worth millions upon millions of dollars. And, likewise, why an agent wouldn't be moved by the argument anyway.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 11:28:25 AM
You don't think Marner and Matthews could make enough to offset tax savings of Florida? I say absolutely they do.

The actual available numbers for player endorsement income says no, absolutely not. Only the Crosbys and McDavids of the world do.

Where would I find such numbers? I highly doubt based on the  number of commercials Matthews is in that he isn't generating at least a million a year, that would compensate for the lost tax dollars.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 25, 2019, 11:35:07 AM
Where would I find such numbers? I highly doubt based on the  number of commercials Matthews is in that he isn't generating at least a million a year, that would compensate for the lost tax dollars.

cabber24 posted a link to an article that contains some information on endorsements. Only 3 players on the list earn more than $1M in endorsements. Also, I believe it would take significantly more than ~$1M to cover the tax differences. Otherwise, I can't imagine Stamkos would have signed for $8.5M per year knowing he could get $10M+ in the UFA market + close to the same endorsement numbers that Matthews gets.

Also, keep in mind, the only real national commercial Matthews. The rest are almost all local/regional, and they come with a much lower budget for everything, including endorsement dollars.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 11:39:19 AM
Where would I find such numbers? I highly doubt based on the  number of commercials Matthews is in that he isn't generating at least a million a year, that would compensate for the lost tax dollars.

cabber24 posted a link to an article that contains some information on endorsements. Only 3 players on the list earn more than $1M in endorsements. Also, I believe it would take significantly more than ~$1M to cover the tax differences. Otherwise, I can't imagine Stamkos would have signed for $8.5M per year knowing he could get $10M+ in the UFA market + close to the same endorsement numbers that Matthews gets.

Also, keep in mind, the only real national commercial Matthews. The rest are almost all local/regional, and they come with a much lower budget for everything, including endorsement dollars.

In simple terms it's $1.65 difference on a contract between Florida and Ontario. In reality there is much more to it with regards to tax treaty and how your contract us structured. A million would be fairly close.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2019, 11:39:19 AM
This is also ignoring the assumption that any regional endorsement opportunities that exist around Toronto wouldn't also exist around Tampa Bay. i.e. why wouldn't a player choose to benefit from tax savings AND endorsements?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 11:40:56 AM
It's also not just about what Matthews or Marner make in endorsements. It's what they make in endorsements vs. what they'd make in endorsements in another market.

And, of course, endorsement income gets taxed too.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 11:42:39 AM
I'm gonna try not to laugh at the suggestion there is any number worth wondering about in regards to Florida advertising vs Canada. Matthews in AZ would be a different story.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2019, 11:45:24 AM
I'm gonna try not to laugh at the suggestion there is any number worth wondering about in regards to Florida advertising vs Canada. Matthews in AZ would be a different story.

The article that you linked to states that Stamkos makes about $1.5M annually (in 2017). That's significant.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 11:46:06 AM
I'm gonna try not to laugh at the suggestion there is any number worth wondering about in regards to Florida advertising vs Canada. Matthews in AZ would be a different story.

The article that you linked to states that Stamkos makes about $1.5M annually (in 2017). That's significant.

I didn't link anything??
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 11:52:41 AM
I'm gonna try not to laugh at the suggestion there is any number worth wondering about in regards to Florida advertising vs Canada. Matthews in AZ would be a different story.

The article that you linked to states that Stamkos makes about $1.5M annually (in 2017). That's significant.

I think one thing those lists tell us again and again is that where a player plays is less relevant than that player's status within the hockey world. Connor McDavid is going to make a ton more in endorsements as the best player in the world no matter what market he's in than the Leafs or Rangers' best players if they're not a big deal.

I think Stamkos in particular sort of typifies that. Regardless of where Stamkos is playing hockey, he's going to be able to tie into some of the endorsement dollars in Toronto because people in Toronto, at least hockey people, know who he is. Being from here and being regarded as one of the best players in the league probably means more than being a Maple Leaf.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 11:58:41 AM
I didn't see Stamkos in that article??? But I did see Tavares at $1.7 million, I doubt Marner is less marketable.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 12:02:58 PM

This is last years version of the list, it has Stamkos at 1.5 million:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2017-18/#7c5e1b0a2ac3 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/12/05/the-nhls-highest-paid-players-2017-18/#7c5e1b0a2ac3)

Like Carlton said though, none of these numbers should be taken as gospel.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 25, 2019, 12:09:20 PM
Welcome to Mitch Marner signing day!

I've decided to be optimistic today.

Letís hope itís soon. I purchased a $350 Mitch Marner framed photo and itís still sitting in the box it shipped in in my basement . Not taking it out and hanging it up until he signs.


So you're the jinx. Hmm
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 25, 2019, 01:03:44 PM
Dreger on Leafs lunch today, had no insight on any players outside of Marner. Said Marner absolutely would be willing to sign an offer sheet since he's taken the process this far.  Said something like Marner isn't curled up in a ball worried that fans are ripping him and his agent online.

Asked about other RFAs, Dreger had crickets.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2019, 01:28:39 PM
I'm gonna try not to laugh at the suggestion there is any number worth wondering about in regards to Florida advertising vs Canada. Matthews in AZ would be a different story.

The article that you linked to states that Stamkos makes about $1.5M annually (in 2017). That's significant.

I didn't link anything??

My apologies; it was another poster who linked the Forbes article.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2019, 01:50:57 PM

If true... and I'm doubtful about that... bye Mitch.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 25, 2019, 01:54:01 PM

If true... and I'm doubtful about that... bye Mitch.
Absolutely see ya. Said it before. The only way he gets close to 11 is by signing an 8 year deal.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 01:55:36 PM
As always I'm pretty skeptical about that until I see it but it does sort of fit in with the idea that once you're willing to cross the line of making that offer sheet worth 4 firsts, the idea that the difference between, say, 11.5 over 5 and 13 over 5 would stop you doesn't really make sense. Even with the Leafs, if Marner makes sense at 11.5, it's really hard to think of what the extra 1.5 million could get you that switches things.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2019, 02:04:30 PM
It gets you Ilya Mikheyev instead of Connor Brown. Which, I'm guessing most of us are OK with despite not knowing a thing about Mikheyev.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 25, 2019, 02:07:43 PM
As always I'm pretty skeptical about that until I see it but it does sort of fit in with the idea that once you're willing to cross the line of making that offer sheet worth 4 firsts, the idea that the difference between, say, 11.5 over 5 and 13 over 5 would stop you doesn't really make sense. Even with the Leafs, if Marner makes sense at 11.5, it's really hard to think of what the extra 1.5 million could get you that switches things.
When you're up against the cap it makes a huge difference. All things being equal and say the Leafs are 1.5 over means a roster player making that over an ELC would have to go. In the Leafs case, Hyman would have to go because Brown's contract wouldn't cover it. If not that route, then you trade a Kappy, Johnsson, Kadri which in turn makes your team weaker. So while it can be done, generally GMs don't look to make their teams weaker.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2019, 02:14:52 PM

If true... and I'm doubtful about that... bye Mitch.

I'll fondly remember the Marner years. Watching Panarin net 90 points will be fun though. Or a combo of Anders Lee and Anton Stralman. Or a bigger trade using the picks.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2019, 02:15:19 PM
I'll fondly remember the Marner years. Watching Panarin net 90 points will be fun though. Or a combo of Anders Lee and Anton Stralman. Or a bigger trade using the picks.

Oh man signing Lee might be too funny to pass on.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 25, 2019, 02:16:32 PM
It gets you Ilya Mikheyev instead of Connor Brown. Which, I'm guessing most of us are OK with despite not knowing a thing about Mikheyev.
If we're right up against the cap, it doesn't because the difference isn't 1.5 million between the 2. You'll still need to find around 325K.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2019, 02:16:32 PM
Someone's gotta replace Marleau on the left side.  :D
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 25, 2019, 02:19:11 PM

If true... and I'm doubtful about that... bye Mitch.

Nice try, Dreger-Ferris, but, should have tried to stay in the realm of reality.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 25, 2019, 02:20:14 PM

If true... and I'm doubtful about that... bye Mitch.

I'll fondly remember the Marner years. Watching Panarin net 90 points will be fun though. Or a combo of Anders Lee and Anton Stralman. Or a bigger trade using the picks.
Haha. Too funny. I'll say one thing, this is getting entertaining. Does anyone really believe someone is going to pay him more then McDavid?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on June 25, 2019, 02:21:53 PM
So long and thanks for all the picks.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2019, 02:23:02 PM
Does anyone really believe someone is going to pay him more then McDavid?

I mean all it takes is 1 team, right? Allegedly the Sharks were willing to pay Tavares more than McDavid, that doesn't mean they thought Tavares was better/more valuable than McDavid though.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: pmrules on June 25, 2019, 02:30:55 PM
As always I'm pretty skeptical about that until I see it but it does sort of fit in with the idea that once you're willing to cross the line of making that offer sheet worth 4 firsts, the idea that the difference between, say, 11.5 over 5 and 13 over 5 would stop you doesn't really make sense. Even with the Leafs, if Marner makes sense at 11.5, it's really hard to think of what the extra 1.5 million could get you that switches things.

I would imagine there has to be a dollar value line, that once crossed the Leafs aren't willing to match.  I don't know what that line is obviously for Kyle.  Maybe that $1.5M in your example crosses it.  At $13M, for me anyways, the line has been crossed and $11.5M+ of cap space and 4 1sts are more valuable to me.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 02:33:00 PM
When you're up against the cap it makes a huge difference. All things being equal and say the Leafs are 1.5 over means a roster player making that over an ELC would have to go. In the Leafs case, Hyman would have to go because Brown's contract wouldn't cover it. If not that route, then you trade a Kappy, Johnsson, Kadri which in turn makes your team weaker. So while it can be done, generally GMs don't look to make their teams weaker.

But the equation is having Marner vs. not having Marner and there's not a single guy you named whose absence would hurt the team more than Marner.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 02:35:55 PM
I would imagine there has to be a dollar value line, that once crossed the Leafs aren't willing to match.

I'm sure there is. I'm just not sure it's a decision that ultimately results in a better team than the one with Marner on it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: pmrules on June 25, 2019, 02:39:33 PM
This is bonkers territory for Mitch.  No way is he worth that.  If someone else is willing to pay, then go enjoy being irrelevant in another market Mitch. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on June 25, 2019, 02:41:47 PM
This is bonkers territory for Mitch.  No way is he worth that.  If someone else is willing to pay, then go enjoy being irrelevant in another market Mitch.

Let me say that I think that the report is horseshit, but I'll be the first to say that I wouldn't blame Mitch Marner one bit for signing that crazy deal. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 25, 2019, 02:43:20 PM
When you're up against the cap it makes a huge difference. All things being equal and say the Leafs are 1.5 over means a roster player making that over an ELC would have to go. In the Leafs case, Hyman would have to go because Brown's contract wouldn't cover it. If not that route, then you trade a Kappy, Johnsson, Kadri which in turn makes your team weaker. So while it can be done, generally GMs don't look to make their teams weaker.

But the equation is having Marner vs. not having Marner and there's not a single guy you named whose absence would hurt the team more than Marner.

That's not the point because at 15mill you could say that. The team will be weaker with him at 13 mill then it would be with him at 11 mill.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 02:47:43 PM
That's not the point because at 15mill you could say that. The team will be weaker with him at 13 mill then it would be with him at 11 mill.

But you can say that about any player at any price. It's better, within the confines of the cap, for every player to be cheaper.

The question though is at what point does it become a smart decision to let a player walk away. Like I said, if a player makes your team better at 11.5, I don't think the extra 1.5 million to 13 represents such a shift that your team is better off without them at all regardless of your cap situation. Could you then say the same thing about a player at 15? Yeah, maybe. But part of that is just reckoning with the reality that star players in the NHL are drastically, drastically underpaid.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 02:52:04 PM
That's not the point because at 15mill you could say that. The team will be weaker with him at 13 mill then it would be with him at 11 mill.

But you can say that about any player at any price. It's better, within the confines of the cap, for every player to be cheaper.

The question though is at what point does it become a smart decision to let a player walk away. Like I said, if a player makes your team better at 11.5, I don't think the extra 1.5 million to 13 represents such a shift that your team is better off without them at all regardless of your cap situation. Could you then say the same thing about a player at 15? Yeah, maybe. But part of that is just reckoning with the reality that star players in the NHL are drastically, drastically underpaid.

Is the question not is your team better with Mitch at 13 or better with another good winger at 9 or 10 with 4 first round picks? At 13 I take my chances with the Cap Space and the 4 firsts. Heck I take that chance at anything above 11.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Chris on June 25, 2019, 02:53:45 PM
$13 or $14M for Marner? I'll believe it when I see it. If it comes to that, hopefully we can sign someone else (like Panarin) for a more reasonable amount and use the extra for another position of need (we do need a defense, after all). And the picks will be icing on the cake.

The big risk is that we let Marner go and aren't able to sign a really good player to take his spot.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 02:57:08 PM
Is the question not is your team better with Mitch at 13 or better with another good winger at 9 or 10 with 4 first round picks?

Sort of, but that's very much a bird in the hand vs. the two in the bush sort of scenario. We know that the UFA market not only tends to be a horrifically inefficient use of cap dollars but that's even in the event that you can convince someone to take them.

So if the question is Marner at 13 vs. the hypothetical really good value UFA at 9 or 10 and draft picks, I still would tend towards the actual tangible asset.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 25, 2019, 03:02:54 PM
Is the question not is your team better with Mitch at 13 or better with another good winger at 9 or 10 with 4 first round picks?

Sort of, but that's very much a bird in the hand vs. the two in the bush sort of scenario. We know that the UFA market not only tends to be a horrifically inefficient use of cap dollars but that's even in the event that you can convince someone to take them.

So if the question is Marner at 13 vs. the hypothetical really good value UFA at 9 or 10 and draft picks, I still would tend towards the actual tangible asset.
I wouldn't just look at the UFA market. I would look at the trade route also. You have 4 1st. Tell me you couldn't get a package together to entice CBJ to trade Jones, or St Louis to trade Parayko? You hit them with a deal they can't pass on and if that deal worked out, you'd still have cap space left. There's a point where you just have to walk away. Yeah the team will be weaker up front without him, but you could potentially shore up the D side of things.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 03:03:02 PM
Is the question not is your team better with Mitch at 13 or better with another good winger at 9 or 10 with 4 first round picks?

Sort of, but that's very much a bird in the hand vs. the two in the bush sort of scenario. We know that the UFA market not only tends to be a horrifically inefficient use of cap dollars but that's even in the event that you can convince someone to take them.

So if the question is Marner at 13 vs. the hypothetical really good value UFA at 9 or 10 and draft picks, I still would tend towards the actual tangible asset.

With the dollars being mentioned I'm very confident we can sign 75% of Marner for $9 million or less riding shotgun for Tavares. In this case at the rumoured dollars It's the RFA market that looks very inefficient.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 03:10:57 PM
I wouldn't just look at the UFA market. I would look at the trade route also. You have 4 1st. Tell me you couldn't get a package together to entice CBJ to trade Jones, or St Louis to trade Parayko?

I doubt it,  I don't see either team as having a desire to move on from either guy, but regardless we're still talking about these wild hypotheticals. What is the package the Leafs could put together for either guy that was so good that neither team could pass on yet still represented good value for the Leafs? To me, that's almost inherently contradictory.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 03:12:12 PM
With the dollars being mentioned I'm very confident we can sign 75% of Marner for $9 million or less riding shotgun for Tavares.

Which players on the UFA market do you think represent 75% of Marner?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 03:13:47 PM
The Leafs are presently a very top heavy team with suspect defence. Add Marner at 11 plus and that gets worse rather than better. Take 4 firsts and use that 11 plus million to slightly improve the whole lineup and the Leafs are a better team. 1st line is slightly worse, 3rd line could be much better and D improved.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: louisstamos on June 25, 2019, 03:17:39 PM
If Marner does leave though, and the Leafs need a replacement, I heard Phil Kessel can be had from Pittsburgh for relatively cheap. :)
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: pmrules on June 25, 2019, 03:20:28 PM
$13 or $14M for Marner? I'll believe it when I see it. If it comes to that, hopefully we can sign someone else (like Panarin) for a more reasonable amount and use the extra for another position of need (we do need a defense, after all). And the picks will be icing on the cake.

The big risk is that we let Marner go and aren't able to sign a really good player to take his spot.

In this hypothetical world, if Marner signs for $13M, Panarin or equivalent wonít be signing for $9M.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 03:21:27 PM
With the dollars being mentioned I'm very confident we can sign 75% of Marner for $9 million or less riding shotgun for Tavares.

Which players on the UFA market do you think represent 75% of Marner?

Pavelski, Duchene, Nyquist, Dzingel, Lee,  and possible trade scenarios like Hoffman.  Many options out there.   
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 03:24:24 PM
Pavelski, Duchene, Nyquist, Dzingel, Lee,  and possible trade scenarios like Hoffman.  Many options out there.

Yeah, we may just have a fundamental difference in opinion as to Marner's worth.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Chris on June 25, 2019, 03:24:34 PM
$13 or $14M for Marner? I'll believe it when I see it. If it comes to that, hopefully we can sign someone else (like Panarin) for a more reasonable amount and use the extra for another position of need (we do need a defense, after all). And the picks will be icing on the cake.

The big risk is that we let Marner go and aren't able to sign a really good player to take his spot.

In this hypothetical world, if Marner signs for $13M, Panarin or equivalent wonít be signing for $9M.

Maybe not, but Panarin+4 first rounders > Marner
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 03:26:25 PM
Pavelski, Duchene, Nyquist, Dzingel, Lee,  and possible trade scenarios like Hoffman.  Many options out there.

Yeah, we may just have a fundamental difference in opinion as to Marner's worth.

90 point winger with great center. I think most if those guys produce 70 plus in same situation.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 03:30:38 PM
90 point winger with great center. I think most if those guys produce 70 plus in same situation.

Lee literally played three seasons with the exact same C and never approached 70 points.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 03:35:55 PM
90 point winger with great center. I think most if those guys produce 70 plus in same situation.

Lee literally played three seasons with the exact same C and never approached 70 points.

The rest of the team and situation changes that IMO. But let's say I playing your splitting hairs game and only assume 60 pts. Still a better deal for the Leaf's and rest of lineup as Lee isn't getting $9 million so even more to spend.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 03:47:42 PM
The rest of the team and situation changes that IMO. But let's say I playing your splitting hairs game and only assume 60 pts.

It's not splitting hairs, it's pointing out the flaws in the theory. For instance here, by "assuming" 60 points you're assuming roughly 10 points higher than Lee's average point total playing on Tavares' wing. He only cracked 60 points once and he did that in a year while shooting 19% and getting 250 PP minutes.

By contrast, last year, Marner scored about 150% of Lee's best total with Tavares while getting roughly 80% of the PP time, playing a regular PK shift, with a lower shooting % than his average and being 5 years younger than Lee in these comparative seasons.

There are similar problems with signing just about everyone you mentioned. Some of them are too old(Pavelski), some of them don't have any sort of regular scoring track record(Nyquist) and more than one aren't even wingers.

I get why there's comfort in looking at a mass of players and just assuming the Leafs will be able to pluck the one they like best out of that lineup and sign them to a deal that makes us happy but I don't think that's what the UFA market has historically been. Something can't really be a better deal without knowing what the actual deal would be.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Hobbes on June 25, 2019, 03:54:49 PM
With the dollars being mentioned I'm very confident we can sign 75% of Marner for $9 million or less riding shotgun for Tavares.

Which players on the UFA market do you think represent 75% of Marner?
Or another angle on that...

Marner at $13M probably means Sparks will be back-up again (or a hail Mary on another league min. back-up) who will play perhaps 20 games at and could easily be several games' difference in the standings, and leave us with an over-worked Freddie come playoff time again. Marner at $10M (or whatever) would give some flexibility to upgrade that back-up spot and still have lots of cap room and four extra first round picks to use in trying to trade for upgrades to what will otherwise be a defence filled up with league min. reclamation projects and/or rookies. Moving Kappy up to play with John would be a reduction in offence, sure, but perhaps those dollars spent elsewhere would cut the GA down by more than the loss in GF.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: hap_leaf on June 25, 2019, 03:56:36 PM
The rest of the team and situation changes that IMO. But let's say I playing your splitting hairs game and only assume 60 pts.

It's not splitting hairs, it's pointing out the flaws in the theory. For instance here, by "assuming" 60 points you're assuming roughly 10 points higher than Lee's average point total playing on Tavares' wing. He only cracked 60 points once and he did that in a year while shooting 19% and getting 250 PP minutes.

By contrast, last year, Marner scored about 150% of Lee's best total with Tavares while getting roughly 80% of the PP time, playing a regular PK shift, with a lower shooting % than his average and being 5 years younger than Lee in these comparative seasons.

There are similar problems with signing just about everyone you mentioned. Some of them are too old(Pavelski), some of them don't have any sort of regular scoring track record(Nyquist) and more than one aren't even wingers.

I get why there's comfort in looking at a mass of players and just assuming the Leafs will be able to pluck the one they like best out of that lineup and sign them to a deal that makes us happy but I don't think that's what the UFA market has historically been. Something can't really be a better deal without knowing what the actual deal would be.

I don't see the need to identify the actual player, I get what he is saying and tend to agree with it.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2019, 04:01:55 PM
Marner at $13M probably means Sparks will be back-up again (or a hail Mary on another league min. back-up) who will play perhaps 20 games at and could easily be several games' difference in the standings, and leave us with an over-worked Freddie come playoff time again. Marner at $10M (or whatever) would give some flexibility to upgrade that back-up spot and still have lots of cap room and four extra first round picks to use in trying to trade for upgrades to what will otherwise be a defence filled up with league min. reclamation projects and/or rookies. Moving Kappy up to play with John would be a reduction in offence, sure, but perhaps those dollars spent elsewhere would cut the GA down by more than the loss in GF.

I'm assuming you mean no Marner rather than Marner at 10 million because Marner at 10 million means no extra first round picks.

Regardless, I agree that I'd rather have Marner at 10 million than 13 but if that's not the choice then you do sort of have to play the ball where it lies. Would it make it impossible to improve the back-up goalie position? No, it just might mean that you'd have to move someone like Kapanen which I would rather do than not have Marner in the lineup.

But that said, I'm open to the concept of there being a better use of the money than signing Marner at whatever it takes to sign him, I just don't buy it as a vague "Don't worry we'll just sign somebody/convince another team to give us someone good" idea. A bunch of bad plans don't aggregate into one good plan.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Hobbes on June 25, 2019, 04:12:07 PM
Marner at $13M probably means Sparks will be back-up again (or a hail Mary on another league min. back-up) who will play perhaps 20 games at and could easily be several games' difference in the standings, and leave us with an over-worked Freddie come playoff time again. Marner at $10M (or whatever) would give some flexibility to upgrade that back-up spot and still have lots of cap room and four extra first round picks to use in trying to trade for upgrades to what will otherwise be a defence filled up with league min. reclamation projects and/or rookies. Moving Kappy up to play with John would be a reduction in offence, sure, but perhaps those dollars spent elsewhere would cut the GA down by more than the loss in GF.

I'm assuming you mean no Marner rather than Marner at 10 million because Marner at 10 million means no extra first round picks.

Regardless, I agree that I'd rather have Marner at 10 million than 13 but if that's not the choice then you do sort of have to play the ball where it lies. Would it make it impossible to improve the back-up goalie position? No, it just might mean that you'd have to move someone like Kapanen which I would rather do than not have Marner in the lineup.

But that said, I'm open to the concept of there being a better use of the money than signing Marner at whatever it takes to sign him, I just don't buy it as a vague "Don't worry we'll just sign somebody/convince another team to give us someone good" idea. A bunch of bad plans don't aggregate into one good plan.
Sorry...should have been clearer there. If the reports are true, it's a safe assumption that $10M isn't going to get it done, but in terms of the "what's the walk-away point?" it's relevant. The valuation being discussed isn't really Marner at 13 vs Marner at 10...it's Marner at 13 and no cap space without moving another significant piece vs a hole at 1st line right wing, $10M-ish of cap space and four 1st round picks.

On the overall point of a bird in hand vs a couple snakes masquerading as a birds in the bush, I completely agree.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 25, 2019, 04:55:19 PM
The rest of the team and situation changes that IMO. But let's say I playing your splitting hairs game and only assume 60 pts.

It's not splitting hairs, it's pointing out the flaws in the theory. For instance here, by "assuming" 60 points you're assuming roughly 10 points higher than Lee's average point total playing on Tavares' wing. He only cracked 60 points once and he did that in a year while shooting 19% and getting 250 PP minutes.

By contrast, last year, Marner scored about 150% of Lee's best total with Tavares while getting roughly 80% of the PP time, playing a regular PK shift, with a lower shooting % than his average and being 5 years younger than Lee in these comparative seasons.

There are similar problems with signing just about everyone you mentioned. Some of them are too old(Pavelski), some of them don't have any sort of regular scoring track record(Nyquist) and more than one aren't even wingers.

I get why there's comfort in looking at a mass of players and just assuming the Leafs will be able to pluck the one they like best out of that lineup and sign them to a deal that makes us happy but I don't think that's what the UFA market has historically been. Something can't really be a better deal without knowing what the actual deal would be.

Like I said the change from playing on a team's only line alone should get the guy 10 points. It's not easy to play against a checking line every night of your career. That's what the Leaf's offer with 2, maybe even 3 decent scoring lines with the extra cash. But hey what the heck throw Lee out,  still a few guys to fill the role. I might add that until this past season Marner hadn't broke 70 points and then he did. And maybe it Isn't 75% of Marner in terms of just poibts, but a little more physical game allows for an upgrade scoring wise on the other wing. Many possibilities on what to do with this new found Cap space.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 25, 2019, 05:06:01 PM

If true... and I'm doubtful about that... bye Mitch.

If I was a GM and had 13M cap space and 4 1st round picks to improve my team, signing Marner wouldnít be the first thing Iíd try to do.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 25, 2019, 06:49:15 PM
Those numbers are pure crap. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 25, 2019, 07:36:20 PM
Those numbers are pure crap. 
That's Dreger, aka Paul Marner, Ferris, trying to drive up the price?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on June 25, 2019, 08:08:03 PM
You know, I get it that this in within Marner & Co. prerogative to test the waters, but I really can't remember another player being this public about his intentions and basically like a big F.U. to the Leafs.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Highlander on June 25, 2019, 09:26:48 PM
Just can't see Mitch wanting to play outside of his childhood dream, its why Tavares came home for less money.  Maybe Johnny T should have a talk with Oppie Mitch. Or is that Fonzie T.
If he takes a 13 million offer sheet, save the 13 mill and lets take 4 firsts.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2019, 10:05:59 PM
You know, I get it that this in within Marner & Co. prerogative to test the waters, but I really can't remember another player being this public about his intentions and basically like a big F.U. to the Leafs.

I haven't seen a single quote from Marner in weeks. In what way is he being public?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2019, 10:44:51 PM
You know, I get it that this in within Marner & Co. prerogative to test the waters, but I really can't remember another player being this public about his intentions and basically like a big F.U. to the Leafs.

I haven't seen a single quote from Marner in weeks. In what way is he being public?

Dreger isn't just making up these claims that Marner/his camp expect to meet with teams once his interview period opens.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 25, 2019, 11:28:01 PM
$13 or $14M for Marner? I'll believe it when I see it. If it comes to that, hopefully we can sign someone else (like Panarin) for a more reasonable amount and use the extra for another position of need (we do need a defense, after all). And the picks will be icing on the cake.

The big risk is that we let Marner go and aren't able to sign a really good player to take his spot.

In this hypothetical world, if Marner signs for $13M, Panarin or equivalent wonít be signing for $9M.
There's only so many dollars to go around
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2019, 11:58:18 PM
You know, I get it that this in within Marner & Co. prerogative to test the waters, but I really can't remember another player being this public about his intentions and basically like a big F.U. to the Leafs.

I haven't seen a single quote from Marner in weeks. In what way is he being public?

Dreger isn't just making up these claims that Marner/his camp expect to meet with teams once his interview period opens.

I suppose I just don't see that as "a big FU" to the Leafs as Rob does.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 26, 2019, 12:04:56 AM
It seems reasonable to keep in mind the fact that none of the top RFAs have signed ó Point, Rantanen, Aho, Tkachuck, Laine, Boeser, ...  Marnerís great, but so are some of those other guys.  My understanding is that Tampaís got just about as tough a time with the cap this year and next as Toronto.  So Marnerís situation isnít all that unusual. Are all these guys offer sheet targets? If they were, that would certainly be a remarkable change from business as usual in the NHL over the last decade. Or is the media maybe just jerking our chains a little and overselling the offer sheet possibility for Toronto only?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 01:23:02 AM
It seems reasonable to keep in mind the fact that none of the top RFAs have signed ó Point, Rantanen, Aho, Tkachuck, Laine, Boeser, ...  Marnerís great, but so are some of those other guys.  My understanding is that Tampaís got just about as tough a time with the cap this year and next as Toronto.  So Marnerís situation isnít all that unusual. Are all these guys offer sheet targets? If they were, that would certainly be a remarkable change from business as usual in the NHL over the last decade. Or is the media maybe just jerking our chains a little and overselling the offer sheet possibility for Toronto only?

That's certainly possible but I think something people often overlook is it really does take two to tango on offer sheets. A lot of the guys you're talking about may very well not want to leave their teams and their teams want to take care of them but they're just waiting for some sort of market to be established. If they're not interested in an offer sheet, there's not going to be that noise around them.

If Marner is genuinely ok with leaving if he doesn't get the deal he wants he could very well be a target and none of the other guys are.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 26, 2019, 09:07:11 AM
I'm at Pearson on the lookout for Marner all day.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: 93forever on June 26, 2019, 09:37:10 AM
As always I'm pretty skeptical about that until I see it but it does sort of fit in with the idea that once you're willing to cross the line of making that offer sheet worth 4 firsts, the idea that the difference between, say, 11.5 over 5 and 13 over 5 would stop you doesn't really make sense. Even with the Leafs, if Marner makes sense at 11.5, it's really hard to think of what the extra 1.5 million could get you that switches things.
When you're up against the cap it makes a huge difference. All things being equal and say the Leafs are 1.5 over means a roster player making that over an ELC would have to go. In the Leafs case, Hyman would have to go because Brown's contract wouldn't cover it. If not that route, then you trade a Kappy, Johnsson, Kadri which in turn makes your team weaker. So while it can be done, generally GMs don't look to make their teams weaker.
I would be willing to trade Kadri.  He's a good physical player, but he has hurt the team with his suspensions.  I would try to package Kadri for a d-man.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 26, 2019, 09:43:09 AM
It seems reasonable to keep in mind the fact that none of the top RFAs have signed ó Point, Rantanen, Aho, Tkachuck, Laine, Boeser, ...  Marnerís great, but so are some of those other guys.  My understanding is that Tampaís got just about as tough a time with the cap this year and next as Toronto.  So Marnerís situation isnít all that unusual. Are all these guys offer sheet targets? If they were, that would certainly be a remarkable change from business as usual in the NHL over the last decade. Or is the media maybe just jerking our chains a little and overselling the offer sheet possibility for Toronto only?

That's certainly possible but I think something people often overlook is it really does take two to tango on offer sheets. A lot of the guys you're talking about may very well not want to leave their teams and their teams want to take care of them but they're just waiting for some sort of market to be established. If they're not interested in an offer sheet, there's not going to be that noise around them.

If Marner is genuinely ok with leaving if he doesn't get the deal he wants he could very well be a target and none of the other guys are.

yes, but I dont have any idea whether Marner is more or less willing to leave than anybody else.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Rob on June 26, 2019, 09:50:55 AM
I'm at Pearson on the lookout for Marner all day.

Watch for Dreger disguised as a Hare Krishna. 
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 01:17:39 PM
yes, but I dont have any idea whether Marner is more or less willing to leave than anybody else.

Right. I'm suggesting though that the fact that we're hearing so much about Marner being willing to entertain offer sheets and meeting with other teams and very little about anyone else might be indicative of his thoughts on the matter.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: herman on June 26, 2019, 01:53:05 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/06/26/as-the-rfa-interview-period-opens-the-toronto-maple-leafs-are-right-to-call-the-marner-camps-bluff/

Ferris has never had one of his clients actually back up his bluster.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 26, 2019, 03:01:27 PM
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on June 26, 2019, 03:19:45 PM

A high-profile agent with the initials D.F.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bender on June 26, 2019, 03:23:36 PM
yes, but I dont have any idea whether Marner is more or less willing to leave than anybody else.

Right. I'm suggesting though that the fact that we're hearing so much about Marner being willing to entertain offer sheets and meeting with other teams and very little about anyone else might be indicative of his thoughts on the matter.

His thoughts on the matter or his agent's attempt to negotiate through the media?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: louisstamos on June 26, 2019, 03:24:35 PM
yes, but I dont have any idea whether Marner is more or less willing to leave than anybody else.

Right. I'm suggesting though that the fact that we're hearing so much about Marner being willing to entertain offer sheets and meeting with other teams and very little about anyone else might be indicative of his thoughts on the matter.

His thoughts on the matter or his agent's attempt to negotiate through the media Darren Dreger?

Fixed for you.  :P
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 03:25:52 PM
His thoughts on the matter or his agent's attempt to negotiate through the media?

I think that by saying it "might" be something I'm sort of tacitly agreeing that it may also be something else.

I mean, a third possibility is Marner doesn't want to leave but as his people are clearly willing to get their message out there, they may be willing to aggressively pursue offer sheets without any real interest in signing them just to use them as further leverage with the Leafs.

There's a wide world of possibilities out there.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 26, 2019, 03:29:10 PM
Next up in the Ferris playbook is to suggest Marner might look to go and play in Europe if he can't come to an agreeable contract.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: bustaheims on June 26, 2019, 03:41:04 PM

A high-profile agent with the initials D.F.

You mean, not named D.F., who would be insisting they are coming.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Kaberle15 on June 26, 2019, 04:01:26 PM
They could avoid this circa if they enable Arbitration's Rights after the 1st contract...
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: princedpw on June 26, 2019, 04:28:56 PM
yes, but I dont have any idea whether Marner is more or less willing to leave than anybody else.

Right. I'm suggesting though that the fact that we're hearing so much about Marner being willing to entertain offer sheets and meeting with other teams and very little about anyone else might be indicative of his thoughts on the matter.

I understand. Itís just tough to figure out what all the media noise means.  Iím just not sure how much of this is Marner vs his agentís negotiating tactics vs the Toronto media generating news.  Until this negotiation period, I have never heard Marner suggest he was even remotely unhappy with Toronto.  Every year, many players have contentious negotiations with their teams. Every year, there are a few players who sign in training camp or after the season starts. Obviously, we are a very long way from that. But still, the offer sheets never come.  Itís possible that Marner is that one unique guy, but Iíll continue to bet against it until I hear something more direct.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 04:33:12 PM
I understand. Itís just tough to figure out what all the media noise means.  Iím just not sure how much of this is Marner vs his agentís negotiating tactics vs the Toronto media generating news.  Until this negotiation period, I have never heard Marner suggest he was even remotely unhappy with Toronto.

No. But then again you don't need to be actively unhappy with your job to be receptive to a new offer. Especially in a league where outside of maybe one or two teams, just about any team that makes an offer will be within striking distance of being just as competitive as the Leafs.

  Every year, many players have contentious negotiations with their teams. Every year, there are a few players who sign in training camp or after the season starts. Obviously, we are a very long way from that. But still, the offer sheets never come.  Itís possible that Marner is that one unique guy, but Iíll continue to bet against it until I hear something more direct.

Fair enough. I'm also in that camp of being pretty skeptical about an avalanche of offer sheets.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: RedLeaf on June 26, 2019, 04:35:22 PM
I'd guess this offer sheet business is 95% media driven nonsense.

With completely asinine headlines like this....
'Would Lamoriello look for Ďrevengeí against the Leafs?'
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: caveman on June 26, 2019, 04:41:19 PM
how much time does a team get to react after a player has signed an offer sheet?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: louisstamos on June 26, 2019, 04:44:23 PM
how much time does a team get to react have after a player has signed an offer sheet?

I believe it's a week?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 04:45:46 PM
how much time does a team get to react have after a player has signed an offer sheet?

I believe it's a week?

Yup. Seven days.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 26, 2019, 05:00:07 PM
If I'm the Leafs I'm talking to Brayden Point, Matthew Tkachuk, Aho and Meier just in case. Would also talk to the Bread man. Would love to have Tkachuk.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bullfrog on June 26, 2019, 05:08:24 PM
yes, but I dont have any idea whether Marner is more or less willing to leave than anybody else.

Right. I'm suggesting though that the fact that we're hearing so much about Marner being willing to entertain offer sheets and meeting with other teams and very little about anyone else might be indicative of his thoughts on the matter.

I understand. Itís just tough to figure out what all the media noise means.  Iím just not sure how much of this is Marner vs his agentís negotiating tactics vs the Toronto media generating news.  Until this negotiation period, I have never heard Marner suggest he was even remotely unhappy with Toronto.  Every year, many players have contentious negotiations with their teams. Every year, there are a few players who sign in training camp or after the season starts. Obviously, we are a very long way from that. But still, the offer sheets never come.  Itís possible that Marner is that one unique guy, but Iíll continue to bet against it until I hear something more direct.

That's kind of the point I was making earlier when I noted that I hadn't heard a single quote from Marner. I really think this is all his agent's negotiating tactics.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on June 26, 2019, 05:17:21 PM
If I'm the Leafs I'm talking to Brayden Point, Matthew Tkachuk, Aho and Meier just in case. Would also talk to the Bread man. Would love to have Tkachuk.

Yeah, I don't think the Leafs are going to go around stoking fires.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on June 26, 2019, 05:22:09 PM
That's kind of the point I was making earlier when I noted that I hadn't heard a single quote from Marner. I really think this is all his agent's negotiating tactics.

It's almost certainly a whole bunch of crap, but if indeed that Marner has info that suggests somebody wants to talk to him about $13m X 5, then I wouldn't blame him one bit for jumping on a plane to talk to that idiot.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 05:24:25 PM
I'd guess this offer sheet business is 95% media driven nonsense.

With completely asinine headlines like this....
'Would Lamoriello look for Ďrevengeí against the Leafs?'

Tough to say that would be entirely media driven when it echos what basically every Islanders fan was saying a year ago.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 26, 2019, 05:25:19 PM
If I'm the Leafs I'm talking to Brayden Point, Matthew Tkachuk, Aho and Meier just in case. Would also talk to the Bread man. Would love to have Tkachuk.

Yeah, I don't think the Leafs are going to go around stoking fires.
If the Leafs are willing to walk away from Marner, I'd be disappointed if Dubas doesn't talk to some agents to get an idea of what they're looking for.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Frank E on June 26, 2019, 05:31:24 PM
If it came down to it, I actually think that Matthews would certainly have been the guy to get an offer sheet.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Zee on June 26, 2019, 05:35:37 PM
If I'm the Leafs I'm talking to Brayden Point, Matthew Tkachuk, Aho and Meier just in case. Would also talk to the Bread man. Would love to have Tkachuk.

Yeah, I don't think the Leafs are going to go around stoking fires.


Why not? Making the call costs nothing and it's beneficial to Dubas to know where other RFAs are at in terms of contract demands.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 26, 2019, 06:41:51 PM
If I'm the Leafs I'm talking to Brayden Point, Matthew Tkachuk, Aho and Meier just in case. Would also talk to the Bread man. Would love to have Tkachuk.

Yeah, I don't think the Leafs are going to go around stoking fires.


Why not? Making the call costs nothing and it's beneficial to Dubas to know where other RFAs are at in terms of contract demands.
It could also set up a back up plan should things go south with Marner. If Dubas isn't/hasn't he's not doing his job.
Pierre LeBrun was on Overdrive just now and said basically that while Marner is within his rights to do what he's doing, he's also handcuffing the Leafs in what they can do. Says the Leafs have gotten calls but can't do anything until Marner gets done. Never really thought too much about that angle but he's right.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 06:52:12 PM

I don't really understand how those sorts of conversations would go. Typically when Free Agents talk to a team they want to be wooed and presented with specific amounts, not "Hey man, we're kind of interested in you as a back-up plan in case Marner doesn't work out. We won't offer you anything but maybe hang on in case we decide to later?" isn't much of a pitch.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 26, 2019, 06:55:22 PM

I don't really understand how those sorts of conversations would go. Typically when Free Agents talk to a team they want to be wooed and presented with specific amounts, not "Hey man, we're kind of interested in you as a back-up plan in case Marner doesn't work out. We won't offer you anything but maybe hang on in case we decide to later?" isn't much of a pitch.

Or it could go , what are you looking for in term and length of contract.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on June 26, 2019, 06:57:23 PM

A high-profile agent with the initials D.F.

You mean, not named D.F., who would be insisting they are coming.

Ah!  I totally missed that crucial "no" in the statement.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 07:00:44 PM
Or it could go , what are you looking for in term and length of contract.

If you're the agent of one of these guys why would you answer that with anything other than "What are you offering?" or "Are you looking to make an offer?". Even still, say you get an answer, do you just hang up? Say you'll think about it?

These guys are elite free agents. They typically need to be sold on a place. Screwing around without making an offer isn't going to appeal to any of them and you won't do yourself any favours in dealing with agents if you're just wasting their time.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 26, 2019, 07:20:55 PM
Or it could go , what are you looking for in term and length of contract.

If you're the agent of one of these guys why would you answer that with anything other than "What are you offering?" or "Are you looking to make an offer?". Even still, say you get an answer, do you just hang up? Say you'll think about it?

These guys are elite free agents. They typically need to be sold on a place. Screwing around without making an offer isn't going to appeal to any of them and you won't do yourself any favours in dealing with agents if you're just wasting their time.

They are getting calls from half the League, they need to answer on rough demands to get more teams to pitch . Teams are also not wasting their time on pitches if the demand is out of whack. It's a two way street.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 07:36:21 PM
It's really not a two way street. John Tavares didn't have to make a pitch to anyone. He didn't have to outline what he wanted moneywise. He was perfectly able to let teams bid against themselves for his services as an in-demand free agent. If a team wants a high profile free agent they have to dive in with two feet or they'll be rightly dismissed as not being interested.

RFAs probably aren't getting that many calls because the market is so historically quiet. If they are getting calls it's going to be from teams who are serious about making offers as opposed to coyly hinting around at potentially making an offer in the future. Again, if the agents do reply with what their player is looking for in an offer sheet, the Leafs would have to actually respond with an offer or defer to some vague notion of potentially making a future offer. That's not a meeting that any agent would take seriously.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 26, 2019, 07:42:14 PM
It's really not a two way street. John Tavares didn't have to make a pitch to anyone. He didn't have to outline what he wanted moneywise. He was perfectly able to let teams bid against themselves for his services as an in-demand free agent. If a team wants a high profile free agent they have to dive in with two feet or they'll be rightly dismissed as not being interested.

RFAs probably aren't getting that many calls because the market is so historically quiet. If they are getting calls it's going to be from teams who are serious about making offers as opposed to coyly hinting around at potentially making an offer in the future. Again, if the agents do reply with what their player is looking for in an offer sheet, the Leafs would have to actually respond with an offer or defer to some vague notion of potentially making a future offer. That's not a meeting that any agent would take seriously.

Tavares is not really a comparison as RFA you have to pay salary but also give up compensation and team can just say ok and you wasted your time. I would still bet that Tavares agent took a dozen calls about interest and cost. To think only 2 or 3 teams talked to Tavare's agent is realky kinda silly. But hey I'll play your game. Dubas pitch: world class city with amazing fan base and you will be replacing Marner, who we are moving on from, riding shotgun for Tavares. Now how much and for how long are you looking for?
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 26, 2019, 07:50:57 PM
Leafs didn't discuss money until after JT chose the Leafs. My guess is they knew pretty much what he wanted ballpark, before the pitch. These RFA's will be the same. Nothing wrong with asking what are you looking for. Apparently Aho's ask is 9.5 mill over 6. That didn't come from the team.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Bates on June 26, 2019, 07:55:52 PM
Not to mention for an Agent that wouldn't apparently take a call about ask DF is sure putting it out there a lot.
Title: Re: Mitch Marner: what now?
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 26, 2019, 08:24:49 PM
Tavares is not really a comparison as RFA you have to pay salary but also give up compensation and team can just say ok and you wasted your time. I would still bet that Tavares agent took a dozen calls about interest and cost. To think only 2 or 3 tea