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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Topic started by: louisstamos on December 01, 2018, 04:57:56 PM

Title: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: louisstamos on December 01, 2018, 04:57:56 PM

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on December 01, 2018, 04:58:47 PM
I hope so...Now everyone will witch about the money lol
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: iwas11in67 on December 01, 2018, 04:58:52 PM
WAHOO!!!
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 04:58:55 PM

HEY AN INSIDER!
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 01, 2018, 04:58:59 PM
I semi donít believe that due to who is the messenger.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 04:59:16 PM
I semi dont believe that.

I'm waiting for @LeafsPR
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: lamajama on December 01, 2018, 04:59:21 PM

I'm just too numb to even acknowledge this at this point
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 01, 2018, 04:59:22 PM
really? im surprised at this point
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 01, 2018, 04:59:28 PM
I semi dont believe that.
only a neth of me believes it
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 01, 2018, 04:59:33 PM
So anyways, let me tell you all about the theory behind the reverse jinx...
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 04:59:47 PM
Dreger is not Gold Standard but he's not Howard Berger either.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 05:00:10 PM
So anyways, let me tell you all about the theory behind the reverse jinx...

I think we just witnessed the Big Crunch.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 05:00:14 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 01, 2018, 05:00:20 PM
NYLANDER!!!!!!
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 01, 2018, 05:00:33 PM
6/6.9 according to Friedman.

Nice.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on December 01, 2018, 05:00:44 PM
6x 6.9, like everyone f'n said..good deal.
Win for Dubas and for Nylander. He's getting Pastrnak money, now let's see him raise his game...
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 01, 2018, 05:00:47 PM
McKenzie confirmed too it's done. So happy
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 01, 2018, 05:00:49 PM
Niiiccceeee
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: lamajama on December 01, 2018, 05:00:54 PM
Ok Bob has agreed.

Time to pour a cold one
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: iwas11in67 on December 01, 2018, 05:00:56 PM
No way Dreger puts this out there unless he's got a credible contact6.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: TML fan on December 01, 2018, 05:01:15 PM
I told you.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: AlmosGirl on December 01, 2018, 05:01:39 PM
Thank god itís done.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 05:01:58 PM
"We can and we will.  Unfortunately, none of you will be alive to enjoy it because you all will have died of heart attacks." 
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: lamajama on December 01, 2018, 05:02:05 PM
Now we will see the affect that a Dec 1 signing will have on that Cap AAV.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 01, 2018, 05:02:10 PM
yippee :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :) :)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: lamajama on December 01, 2018, 05:02:32 PM
"We can and we will.  Unfortunately, none of you will be alive to enjoy it because you all will have died of heart attacks."

Well done
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: L K on December 01, 2018, 05:02:47 PM
6*6.9 is less than Pastrnak once you factor in the cap increase.  Iím not impressed if Dubas held this offer back until December
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 05:02:52 PM
Did I mention that Marner is SELFISH?  So damn selfish!  And don't get me started on Matthews.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: bustaheims on December 01, 2018, 05:03:05 PM
Feels like it shouldnít have taken this long to get here. This is roughly where most expected things to end up. Happy itís over, though.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 05:03:12 PM

This is actually a big win for Nylander then.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: louisstamos on December 01, 2018, 05:04:32 PM

This is actually a big win for Nylander then.

Oh snap, I thought the full was 6.9.  So Nylander is getting something closer to $7.25?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 05:05:06 PM

Well this and the above just proved that sitting out works. Willy got a great contract for himself.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 01, 2018, 05:05:15 PM

This is actually a big win for Nylander then.

Oh snap, I thought the full was 6.9.  So Nylander is getting something closer to $7.25?
Hate to say it but that is my figure!! LOL
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 01, 2018, 05:05:24 PM
Beautiful, good job Dubas.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 05:05:37 PM

This is actually a big win for Nylander then.

OK, I'm old enough not to care about my ego anymore: I totally don't understand what that means.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 05:06:47 PM
KAPPY = HAPPY
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 05:06:55 PM

This is actually a big win for Nylander then.

OK, I'm old enough not to care about my ego anymore: I totally don't understand what that means.

There's a higher cap hit in year 1 of this deal than the rest because he sat out. So this means that if he say signed this exact deal at the beginning of the season the AAV would have actually been something over $7mil every year.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: iwas11in67 on December 01, 2018, 05:07:54 PM
He better get 3 points tonight against the Wild
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 01, 2018, 05:08:55 PM
He better get 3 points tonight against the Wild

If he puts the puck in from where he is now, thatís 200 pts.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: hockeyfan1 on December 01, 2018, 05:09:26 PM
Yay!!!   Willy's back!

Bring out the champagne!

Cheers!
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 01, 2018, 05:09:38 PM
I thought he was in St.Paul waiting with gear in hand :)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 01, 2018, 05:10:09 PM
That seems like a completely reasonable contract for both sides.

I'm a very happy camper.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 05:11:27 PM
Thanks for the explanation CtB!

So we are to hope that his stellar play will generate so much additional cashola for the Leafs that it will lift the cap all by itself to levels that allow us to keep all 4 of our nice shiny toys?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 01, 2018, 05:11:44 PM
Well this and the above just proved that sitting out works. Willy got a great contract for himself.

Yeah, this is a good deal for him. I think in the context I posted about earlier re: comparing him to Ehlers it's pretty fair. It still seems stupid that it took this long to get here but I guess that'll have something for everyone.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 05:12:37 PM
By the way, kudos louisstamos for being the first to break the happiness news to us.  This site is so much fun (when things go well)!
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 01, 2018, 05:13:26 PM
Thanks for the explanation CtB!

So we are to hope that his stellar play will generate so much additional cashola for the Leafs that it will lift the cap all by itself to levels that allow us to keep all 4 of our nice shiny toys?

I don't think keeping the four is going to be an issue. The cap rising/cba changes/next two negotiations will just be about the depth behind them. I know people, especially in this town, tend to think of depth as being more important than star power but I don't think that's the direction this league is heading in.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 05:15:26 PM
Some more money details:

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 01, 2018, 05:18:21 PM
Thanks for the explanation CtB!

So we are to hope that his stellar play will generate so much additional cashola for the Leafs that it will lift the cap all by itself to levels that allow us to keep all 4 of our nice shiny toys?

I don't think keeping the four is going to be an issue. The cap rising/cba changes/next two negotiations will just be about the depth behind them. I know people, especially in this town, tend to think of depth as being more important than star power but I don't think that's the direction this league is heading in.

You had better be right, because our very friendship hangs in the balance.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 01, 2018, 05:22:16 PM
Some more money details:


I guarantee that Dubas is hanging his hat on keeping it under 7aav.

But, yeah, if things opened with Dubas offering Ehlers money/term than Nylander's holdout will probably end up being worth north of 10 million or thereabouts.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Joe S. on December 01, 2018, 05:24:31 PM
(http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b315/lilibongidaa/800px-Teen_Girl_Squad_-_Strong_Bad.png)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: mr grieves on December 01, 2018, 05:26:05 PM
Well this and the above just proved that sitting out works. Willy got a great contract for himself.

Yeah, this is a good deal for him. I think in the context I posted about earlier re: comparing him to Ehlers it's pretty fair. It still seems stupid that it took this long to get here but I guess that'll have something for everyone.

Yep. Nylander... wins. Of course we don't know the initial offers of either side, and it seems probable that Nylander's side probably moved the most -- he asked for $8-8.5m and Dubas was pushing $6-6.5m -- but Dubas's goal was to get Nylander under contract for below 'market' or comparable value. And this is his value, pretty much right on the nose.

Good for Willy.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 05:29:13 PM
Some more money details:


So hypothetically this is what the deal would have looked like if they signed the exact one before the season started:

Year 1: $12mil (10 salary, 2 SB)
Year 2: $9mil (.700 salary, 8.3 SB)
Year 3: $6mil (2.5 salary, 3.5 SB)
Year 4: $6mil (2.5 salary, 3.5 SB)
Year 5: $6mil (2.5 salary, 3.5 SB)
Year 6: $6mil (2.5 salary, 3.5 SB)

That's 6 years, $45m total, which would translate to a $7.5m AAV.

Because they waited it's $10.2m AAV in year 1 and $6.996m AAV for the rest.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 01, 2018, 05:30:26 PM
Yep. Nylander... wins. Of course we don't know the initial offers of either side, and it seems probable that Nylander's side probably moved the most -- he asked for $8-8.5m and Dubas was pushing $6-6.5m -- but Dubas's goal was to get Nylander under contract for below 'market' or comparable value. And this is his value, pretty much right on the nose.

Good for Willy.

I also wonder if the term didn't change as well. Dubas obviously would have liked to have bought as many UFA years as possible so maybe the trade-off in Nylander moving more was that he gets to hit UFA earlier.

And, I'm guessing, some added bonus money.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: hockeyfan1 on December 01, 2018, 05:34:14 PM
Can hardly wait to see him back with the Blue & White!   :) :) :)

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 05:38:07 PM
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Deebo on December 01, 2018, 05:42:10 PM
This is essentianlly a 6 year contract at 7M in terms of how much money he takes home.

He takes home 41.83M over the life of the contract and the cap hit in years 2-6 reflect this.

There is no "cap savings" by signing late.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 05:43:14 PM
Some more money details:


This also means that Nylander will get paid roughly 40% of his contracts value by next July 1st (assuming that's when the $8.3mil signing bonus is paid out). That could make him pretty attractive (well, more attractive).

So hypothetically if the Leafs traded him next offseason after that $8.3mil signing bonus is paid out, the acquiring team would only have to pay him $24.7mil over the course of 5 seasons. Not bad.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 01, 2018, 05:46:23 PM

Hahahahahahaha
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 01, 2018, 05:49:42 PM

Hahahahahahaha
I love that Dubas can see the humor in it all. What other GM would do this? Lol
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 05:50:53 PM
I love that Dubas can see the humor in it all. What other GM would do this? Lol

Lou would have straight up had that kid murdered.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 01, 2018, 05:54:45 PM
I love that Dubas can see the humor in it all. What other GM would do this? Lol

Lou would have straight up had that kid murdered.
Everyone here at the Marlies game is celebrating. When the news broke we were all yelling to each other the details of the contract. There's a sense of euphoria here.

Oh it's 4-2 Marlies going into the 3rd
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 01, 2018, 06:00:52 PM
This is essentianlly a 6 year contract at 7M in terms of how much money he takes home.

He takes home 41.83M over the life of the contract and the cap hit in years 2-6 reflect this.

There is no "cap savings" by signing late.

Mirtle predicted right around $7million or slightly more for 6 years based on comparables ranging from Ehlers to Draisatl plus the cap increase.  I was hoping for slightly less. This seems like a market price.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Arn on December 01, 2018, 06:03:04 PM
I love that Dubas can see the humor in it all. What other GM would do this? Lol

Lou would have straight up had that kid murdered.
Everyone here at the Marlies game is celebrating. When the news broke we were all yelling to each other the details of the contract. There's a sense of euphoria here.

Oh it's 4-2 Marlies going into the 3rd

I look forward to Nylanders conditioning stint with the Marlies
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 01, 2018, 06:03:19 PM
With 10.2 million on the cap, can we absorb our max player bonuses (eg: Matthews) and not have money spill to next year?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on December 01, 2018, 06:04:34 PM
So what does it mean in regards to out years? I kinda wonder why this contract took so long. Like what was done seems reasonable for all involved.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: bustaheims on December 01, 2018, 06:07:40 PM
With 10.2 million on the cap, can we absorb our max player bonuses (eg: Matthews) and not have money spill to next year?

That $10.2m will be prorated, so, effectively, itís $7m on the cap. Really, it just means the Leafs end up paying the full ~$42m against the cap over 6 years instead of a prorated amount of the $7m per it would average out to be.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Deebo on December 01, 2018, 06:09:31 PM
With 10.2 million on the cap, can we absorb our max player bonuses (eg: Matthews) and not have money spill to next year?

That $10.2m will be prorated, so, effectively, itís $7m on the cap.

Pro rated, it will be the same amount as years 2-6.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: bustaheims on December 01, 2018, 06:10:26 PM
Pro rated, it will be the same amount as years 2-6.

Yup, which comes in just under $7m.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: lc9 on December 01, 2018, 06:10:45 PM
Win all of the contracts. 
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 06:17:23 PM
With 10.2 million on the cap, can we absorb our max player bonuses (eg: Matthews) and not have money spill to next year?

That $10.2m will be prorated, so, effectively, itís $7m on the cap. Really, it just means the Leafs end up paying the full ~$42m against the cap over 6 years instead of a prorated amount of the $7m per it would average out to be.

Are you missing the whole thing about how contracts are handled differently for RFAs who sign late? Nylander's AAV THIS season will be $10.2mil.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: mr grieves on December 01, 2018, 06:19:04 PM
This is essentianlly a 6 year contract at 7M in terms of how much money he takes home.

He takes home 41.83M over the life of the contract and the cap hit in years 2-6 reflect this.

There is no "cap savings" by signing late.

If he had signed this contract in July, I would've thought it's a really fair deal for Nylander. It's what his comprables signed for, inflated with the cap. I would've been a bit disappointed that Dubas didn't squeeze him to get an AAV that'd allow us a chance of keeping Gardiner or adding.

Four months on, and I find myself focusing more on that disappointment. Why drag this to deadline if we're ending up right where other similar contracts indicate it should've been in the first place? Was it Nylander's side that was being unreasonable? Or the Leafs? -- My guess, informed only by media reports that might not be right, is that it was the Leafs that were trying to get to beat the market. We've got a good player on a perfectly fine contract and no extra room to keep the team more generally competitive -- Big Three 1, Boy Genius GM 0.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Strangelove on December 01, 2018, 06:19:27 PM
So I haven't been following this religiously. Do we think that Nylander's ask came down or Dubas' offer went up? Because this seems like the sort of deal that should have been available 6 months ago.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Deebo on December 01, 2018, 06:19:47 PM
Pro rated, it will be the same amount as years 2-6.

Yup, which comes in just under $7m.

So the final cap hit for each year is still the total amount paid divided by the number of seasons.

If he signed for 6 years 42M on day one, the cap hit would be essentially the same and the money paid to him would be essentially the same, 30k per year difference.

I thought the rule seemed wierd but it really just is a mechanism to even out the cap hit over the term of the deal.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 06:20:58 PM
So I haven't been following this religiously. Do we think that Nylander's ask came down or Dubas' offer went up? Because this seems like the sort of deal that should have been available 6 months ago.

I think that they met roughly in the middle. In terms of cap hit Dubas gets a small advantage, in terms of actual money paid Nylander gets a small advantage.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 01, 2018, 06:22:18 PM
So I haven't been following this religiously. Do we think that Nylander's ask came down or Dubas' offer went up? Because this seems like the sort of deal that should have been available 6 months ago.

I think that may be the wrong way to look at things. I think it's pretty clear now that both sides were using the deadline as a way to get the best deal possible. If Dubas had offered this in July, that might have just been the starting point for what Nylander was negotiating against and vice-versa.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 06:22:18 PM
Again just repeating that THESE are the actual AAV's for Nylander's contract:


$10.2mil for year 1. $6.9mil (actually $6.969mil) for years 2-6.

If you're wondering why, well it's been explained a bunch of times. But you can read about it at capfriendly here: https://www.capfriendly.com/faq#rfa-caphit
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 06:26:17 PM
With 10.2 million on the cap, can we absorb our max player bonuses (eg: Matthews) and not have money spill to next year?

Capfriendly has us at about $5mil in cap space right now, not including any bonuses. They say that translates to roughly $24mil at the deadline. So yeah we shouldn't expect any carryover for next season.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: bustaheims on December 01, 2018, 06:31:24 PM
With 10.2 million on the cap, can we absorb our max player bonuses (eg: Matthews) and not have money spill to next year?

That $10.2m will be prorated, so, effectively, itís $7m on the cap. Really, it just means the Leafs end up paying the full ~$42m against the cap over 6 years instead of a prorated amount of the $7m per it would average out to be.

Are you missing the whole thing about how contracts are handled differently for RFAs who sign late? Nylander's AAV THIS season will be $10.2mil.

I did not. What goes against the cap is the prorated amount of $10.2m - as if the leafs acquired it mid-season, which they did. Capfriendly has his remaining cap hit this season at just under $7m. What the RFA stuff means us the leafs donít get a prorated amount of the actual AAV. They the full amount of what it would have been had Nylander signed in the summer.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 01, 2018, 06:33:13 PM
With 10.2 million on the cap, can we absorb our max player bonuses (eg: Matthews) and not have money spill to next year?

Capfriendly has us at about $5mil in cap space right now, not including any bonuses. They say that translates to roughly $24mil at the deadline. So yeah we shouldn't expect any carryover for next season.

Iím not sure what all their numbers mean exactly but it looks like our max bonuses are 5.4mil and we have 5.195 in expected space. So maybe a max of .205 mil carry over? Pocket change?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 01, 2018, 06:38:58 PM
This is essentianlly a 6 year contract at 7M in terms of how much money he takes home.

He takes home 41.83M over the life of the contract and the cap hit in years 2-6 reflect this.

There is no "cap savings" by signing late.

If he had signed this contract in July, I would've thought it's a really fair deal for Nylander. It's what his comprables signed for, inflated with the cap. I would've been a bit disappointed that Dubas didn't squeeze him to get an AAV that'd allow us a chance of keeping Gardiner or adding.

Four months on, and I find myself focusing more on that disappointment. Why drag this to deadline if we're ending up right where other similar contracts indicate it should've been in the first place? Was it Nylander's side that was being unreasonable? Or the Leafs? -- My guess, informed only by media reports that might not be right, is that it was the Leafs that were trying to get to beat the market. We've got a good player on a perfectly fine contract and no extra room to keep the team more generally competitive -- Big Three 1, Boy Genius GM 0.

Without knowing what the offers were, and when they were made, it is impossible to tell.  If the rumors are right (and I have no idea whether they are) then if Dubas had signed him in in July, he would have paid 8-8.5/year so by waiting, he saved 1-1.5.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Strangelove on December 01, 2018, 06:40:34 PM
So I haven't been following this religiously. Do we think that Nylander's ask came down or Dubas' offer went up? Because this seems like the sort of deal that should have been available 6 months ago.

I think that may be the wrong way to look at things. I think it's pretty clear now that both sides were using the deadline as a way to get the best deal possible. If Dubas had offered this in July, that might have just been the starting point for what Nylander was negotiating against and vice-versa.

Probably. I get that the theory is that you want to avoid anchoring the negotiations at your max offer too early, since the other side will expect movement to get a deal done.

That said, experienced negotiators typically have a pretty good idea of what the number will look like after all the back and forth. I have a hard time understanding why they couldn't get to $6.9 million as of October 1 if that number was acceptable as of December 1. I suspect the answer has something to do with the initial offers being so extreme that negotiations were totally stalled. I wonder if Dubas' inexperience had something to do with it.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 01, 2018, 06:46:21 PM
So I haven't been following this religiously. Do we think that Nylander's ask came down or Dubas' offer went up? Because this seems like the sort of deal that should have been available 6 months ago.

I think that may be the wrong way to look at things. I think it's pretty clear now that both sides were using the deadline as a way to get the best deal possible. If Dubas had offered this in July, that might have just been the starting point for what Nylander was negotiating against and vice-versa.

Probably. I get that the theory is that you want to avoid anchoring the negotiations at your max offer too early, since the other side will expect movement to get a deal done.

That said, experienced negotiators typically have a pretty good idea of what the number will look like after all the back and forth. I have a hard time understanding why they couldn't get to $6.9 million as of October 1 if that number was acceptable as of December 1. I suspect the answer has something to do with the initial offers being so extreme that negotiations were totally stalled. I wonder if Dubas' inexperience had something to do with it.
Dubas is a Jedi Master, never doubt this Luke. 8)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: sickbeast on December 01, 2018, 06:53:36 PM
What is the cap hit, per year?  This deal is extremely confusing.  Did we gain any ongoing cap relief due to the fact that he sat out this long?

I will also say that I am quite pleased with the deal overall.  I still think they should trade him immediately though.  I could be wrong.  I've been wrong before (I didn't think he would sign).
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 01, 2018, 06:58:20 PM
What is the cap hit, per year?  This deal is extremely confusing.  Did we gain any ongoing cap relief due to the fact that he sat out this long?

I will also say that I am quite pleased with the deal overall.  I still think they should trade him immediately though.  I could be wrong.  I've been wrong before (I didn't think he would sign).
Trade the next Swede that may eclipse all of Sundin's records..take some Gaviscon for that Sickbeast stomach. Tell em Willie Boy is Here.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 01, 2018, 06:59:45 PM
Oh and forgot this, once you see what Marner will get (even with the home discount), this deal will look like a steal.  Matthews will be in for 12-13 for sure.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: mr grieves on December 01, 2018, 07:01:15 PM
Without knowing what the offers were, and when they were made, it is impossible to tell.  If the rumors are right (and I have no idea whether they are) then if Dubas had signed him in in July, he would have paid 8-8.5/year so by waiting, he saved 1-1.5.

We can't know the offers, but that might be for the best, because it leaves us with the numbers that are most relevant to assessing what the "savings" are. It is not, I submit, the distance between the player's original ask and what he signs for, but the distance between the number he signs for and the number that averages the cap hits of similar players, signing under similar conditions, and adjusts them for cap inflation.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: mr grieves on December 01, 2018, 07:06:46 PM
Oh and forgot this, once you see what Marner will get (even with the home discount), this deal will look like a steal.  Matthews will be in for 12-13 for sure.

Put the cap at $84m next year.
Marleau's 6.25 = 7.4%
Willy N's 6.69 =    8%
Tavares's 11m = 13.1%
Marner's 9.5m* = 11.3%
Auston's 12.5m = 14.9%

That's almost 55% of the cap tied up in 5 forwards, one of whom isn't really a good top 6 option anymore...

 
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 01, 2018, 07:32:59 PM

The contract not going into effect until tomorrow also explains why no roster moves were made today. Expect a paper transaction sending either Lindholm or Oz to the Marlies and someone (my guess Gauthier or Holl) going on waivers.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 01, 2018, 08:08:06 PM
So Dubas said the turning point was Nylander phoning him directly with 30 minutes to go. Nylander's dad must have gone to the can
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 01, 2018, 08:16:31 PM
The contract not going into effect until tomorrow also explains why no roster moves were made today. Expect a paper transaction sending either Lindholm or Oz to the Marlies and someone (my guess Gauthier or Holl) going on waivers.

I was wondering about this
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on December 01, 2018, 08:32:56 PM
The contract not going into effect until tomorrow also explains why no roster moves were made today. Expect a paper transaction sending either Lindholm or Oz to the Marlies and someone (my guess Gauthier or Holl) going on waivers.

I was wondering about this
They don't have to make a roster move until he's ready to go on the roster. He still needs to get here and go through his physical. I suspect the Leafs will make a move pretty quick tho.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 01, 2018, 09:17:31 PM

Snizzbone strikes
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 01, 2018, 10:39:06 PM

The contract not going into effect until tomorrow also explains why no roster moves were made today. Expect a paper transaction sending either Lindholm or Oz to the Marlies and someone (my guess Gauthier or Holl) going on waivers.

I'm curious why the signing bonus in the first year isn't included as part of the salary. If it was, then the cap hit in subsequent years would be even lower.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Deebo on December 01, 2018, 11:06:21 PM

The contract not going into effect until tomorrow also explains why no roster moves were made today. Expect a paper transaction sending either Lindholm or Oz to the Marlies and someone (my guess Gauthier or Holl) going on waivers.

I'm curious why the signing bonus in the first year isn't included as part of the salary. If it was, then the cap hit in subsequent years would be even lower.

Then Nylander would take less home, because the amount added to the salary from the bonus would be pro rated rather than being paid in full. The cap hit only goes down if he is receiveing less money.

The yearly cap hit is still equal to the total amount being paid divided by the years being played.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 02, 2018, 02:15:00 AM
Now letís see Pastrnak stats! I feel sorry for opposing goalies. This should be one hell of season. Unreal top 9, with the ďarrivalsĒ of Kappy and Johnsson in addition to Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and Kadri... come on now! Anderson and Riley playing lights out too! Letís calm down on pending contracts for a bit and enjoy this season.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 02, 2018, 06:57:12 AM
Now letís see Pastrnak stats! I feel sorry for opposing goalies. This should be one hell of season. Unreal top 9, with the ďarrivalsĒ of Kappy and Johnsson in addition to Marner, Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, and Kadri... come on now! Anderson and Riley playing lights out too! Letís calm down on pending contracts for a bit and enjoy this season.
But Brian Burke said it's a bad deal paying Nylander this much *scratching head*
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Michael on December 02, 2018, 07:32:29 AM
But Brian Burke said it's a bad deal paying Nylander this much *scratching head*

Remind me again which team he works for? I mean, surely someone who is so right must be in high demand to manage a team, right?

Talent > truculence
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 02, 2018, 07:38:53 AM
But Brian Burke said it's a bad deal paying Nylander this much *scratching head*

Remind me again which team he works for? I mean, surely someone who is so right must be in high demand to manage a team, right?

Talent > truculence
I can't believe how excited I was in 2008 when they hired him cause he had just won a Cup with Anaheim. Man was that enthusiasm killed quickly after I saw the team he put together.

Only credit to Burke is for drafting Kadri, Rielly and trading for Gardiner.  Although the drafting is more than likely the scouts getting credit.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Andy on December 02, 2018, 08:29:24 AM
But Brian Burke said it's a bad deal paying Nylander this much *scratching head*

Remind me again which team he works for? I mean, surely someone who is so right must be in high demand to manage a team, right?

Talent > truculence
I can't believe how excited I was in 2008 when they hired him cause he had just won a Cup with Anaheim. Man was that enthusiasm killed quickly after I saw the team he put together.

Only credit to Burke is for drafting Kadri, Rielly and trading for Gardiner.  Although the drafting is more than likely the scouts getting credit.

I had the same reactions myself. Initial euphoria quickly subsiding into dread, confusion and annoyance. His self-imposed rules and guidelines combined with his endless talk become so maddening at the end.

Kadri and Rielly sure look good but my god, Bradley Ross? Stuart Percy? Tyler Biggs? The latter might be one of the worst 1st round picks in recent history...
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 02, 2018, 08:39:58 AM
But Brian Burke said it's a bad deal paying Nylander this much *scratching head*

Remind me again which team he works for? I mean, surely someone who is so right must be in high demand to manage a team, right?

Talent > truculence
I can't believe how excited I was in 2008 when they hired him cause he had just won a Cup with Anaheim. Man was that enthusiasm killed quickly after I saw the team he put together.

Only credit to Burke is for drafting Kadri, Rielly and trading for Gardiner.  Although the drafting is more than likely the scouts getting credit.

I had the same reactions myself. Initial euphoria quickly subsiding into dread, confusion and annoyance. His self-imposed rules and guidelines combined with his endless talk become so maddening at the end.

Kadri and Rielly sure look good but my god, Bradley Ross? Stuart Percy? Tyler Biggs? The latter might be one of the worst 1st round picks in recent history...
I mean even the worst GMs can have a track record of good draft picks if your scouting is decent. Look at JFJ's tenure and you'll see a bunch of good picks (that were either traded or squandered away). The real test of a GM is how he handles the trades and contract negotiations that matter. Handing out huge contracts with NMCs like Burke and Nonis did was stupid. Took a miracle to get out of the Phaneuf and Clarkson deals. I'm so glad we have great management finally
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Andy on December 02, 2018, 08:45:25 AM
Funny enough, I thought Burke made some pretty great trades. JVR, Gardiner/Lupul, Phaneuf were all steals. He just absolutely sucked at signing/giving out contracts. And Tyler Biggs!
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Joe S. on December 02, 2018, 08:50:31 AM
Iím as happy as anyone here that this story is over now. Iím just trying to be realistic with my expectations for Nylanderís performance this year. Typically when a player misses camp they come back all out of sync and take a while to get going. Weíre not just talking camp here - itís been 3 months.

Obviously the team is better with him - I just have a feeling itís not going to be a smooth transition.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 02, 2018, 08:54:19 AM
Funny enough, I thought Burke made some pretty great trades. JVR, Gardiner/Lupul, Phaneuf were all steals. He just absolutely sucked at signing/giving out contracts. And Tyler Biggs!

Forgot about JVR, that was a steal for sure.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 02, 2018, 08:54:32 AM
Funny enough, I thought Burke made some pretty great trades. JVR, Gardiner/Lupul, Phaneuf were all steals. He just absolutely sucked at signing/giving out contracts. And Tyler Biggs!

Eh, I don't want to open up this can of worms again but I think history has proven me right about the Phaneuf trade. It was a pretty fair price, probably the equivalent of the Leafs paying a 1st and two 2nds.

Re: Burke I think he was a bright executive and I think that unlike Lamoriello a lot of his rules came out of trying to be a decent guy. I just think the problem with him, as with all of the GMs who came before him and the one after him, was he was overly confident in his ability to do the ridiculous thing the team wanted him to do. I think that if his mandate had been rebuilding, he probably would have done ok as we saw with the higher draft picks he had to work with.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 02, 2018, 09:14:38 AM
I'm curious why the signing bonus in the first year isn't included as part of the salary. If it was, then the cap hit in subsequent years would be even lower.

Then Nylander would take less home, because the amount added to the salary from the bonus would be pro rated rather than being paid in full. The cap hit only goes down if he is receiveing less money.

The yearly cap hit is still equal to the total amount being paid divided by the years being played.

Thanks. Once you point it out, it's plainly obvious. lol
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 02, 2018, 09:51:00 AM
A win-win deal pulled out of a lose-lose situation.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on December 02, 2018, 10:08:54 AM
A win-win deal pulled out of a lose-lose situation.

Agreed. Ideally, he matches Marner's point total for the balance of the year, and helps add comparables to pull his price down a bit. I can't see it less than 9M currently.

And if there's any lingering resentment at any point, hit cap hit should be very moveable for assets regardless.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: RedLeaf on December 02, 2018, 10:12:10 AM
Who's starting up the trade Nylander thread? 8)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on December 02, 2018, 10:16:47 AM
Who's starting up the trade Nylander thread? 8)

Friedman!  ;D
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: RedLeaf on December 02, 2018, 10:47:04 AM
Who's starting up the trade Nylander thread? 8)

Friedman!  ;D

In all seriousness, I donít think it will happen this year, with his cap hit at 10.2M , but over the summer, Iíd be surprised if it didnít happen.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 02, 2018, 11:02:36 AM
I'd be very surprised if he gets traded. He's an integral part of the team.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Andy on December 02, 2018, 11:03:56 AM
I'd be very surprised if he gets traded. He's an integral part of the team.

I agree. Unless things go terribly awry with the Matthews/Marner extensions, I don't see Willie going anywhere.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 02, 2018, 11:04:20 AM
I'd be very surprised if he gets traded. He's an integral part of the team.

I agree. It seems crazy to me that you'd invest this much in a guy with this much promise and not even give him a full year to see what he can do.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: TML fan on December 02, 2018, 11:19:55 AM
They're not trading Nylander.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 02, 2018, 11:23:55 AM
They're not trading Nylander.
Right now I agree but never say never. We'll see how the season and playoffs go. Right now Nylander is part of the long term future but plans can change based on what's happening on the ice
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frank E on December 02, 2018, 11:24:35 AM
I think we should revisit the subject after the season.  I can't imagine he's going anywhere this season.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 02, 2018, 11:28:56 AM
They're not trading Nylander.
Right now I agree but never say never. We'll see how the season and playoffs go. Right now Nylander is part of the long term future but plans can change based on what's happening on the ice

You could literally say that about anyone in the league.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 02, 2018, 11:46:35 AM
They're not trading Nylander.
Right now I agree but never say never. We'll see how the season and playoffs go. Right now Nylander is part of the long term future but plans can change based on what's happening on the ice

You could literally say that about anyone in the league.
Sure in theory but the true elite level talent it's way less likely. McDavid, Matthews and the like. I don't think Nylander is in that category.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: sickbeast on December 02, 2018, 12:14:55 PM
Don Cherry panned the deal but I kind of feel like we paid fair market value for him; perhaps a bit more.  But really this could be the icing on the cake for our cup run.  What would Cherry have done?  Let him sit?  Trade him for less valuable assets?  Both bad moves IMO.  I agree with a lot of what he says but sometimes he fails to see the bigger picture or other options and scenarios.

I will say that he was 100% completely right about Zaitsev, however.  So we'll see.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 02, 2018, 12:42:57 PM

The thread is locked so I can't quote myself directly but this is me on September 12th:

Quote from: Nik the Trik
Mackinnon signed his extension after two seasons where he scored 38 and then 52 points. He signed for 6.3 million which represented 8.63% of the cap. A comparable cap hit for Nylander, coming off two straight 60+ point seasons, would work out to roughly 6.9 million which would be a nice deal for Nylander

Now, sure, some might say that the rest of that post doesn't indicate this is a prediction but just a stupid joke but I'm still going to declare a sort of victory.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 02, 2018, 12:53:18 PM
This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 02, 2018, 12:55:38 PM
Dubas is actually a member of the Flying Wallendas
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 02, 2018, 01:00:17 PM
Dubas is actually a member of the Flying Wallendas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Wallenda (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Wallenda)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: TML fan on December 02, 2018, 01:10:17 PM
This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If they had an internal deadline, the deal might not have been done at all. How is that a better outcome?

This whole situation has been the definition of "It ain't over till it's over".
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 02, 2018, 01:12:18 PM
This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If they had an internal deadline, the deal might not have been done at all. How is that a better outcome?

Why wouldn't it have gotten done?  The dynamics are exactly the same ... so long as Dubas (or whomever) makes it clear to the agent/player that it is a hard deadline.  Of course if the manager isn't committed to that, it doesn't make sense.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: TML fan on December 02, 2018, 01:19:49 PM
This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If they had an internal deadline, the deal might not have been done at all. How is that a better outcome?

Why wouldn't it have gotten done?  The dynamics are exactly the same ... so long as Dubas (or whomever) makes it clear to the agent/player that it is a hard deadline.  Of course if the manager isn't committed to that, it doesn't make sense.

Because it's pretty obvious that Nylander's camp wasn't ready to deal until it came down to the wire, if what Dubas said about Nylander calling him is to be believed.

Any kind of internal deadline is just nonsense from the other side of the table. If Nylander's camp called back at the exact same time they did yesterday and said "Let's make a deal" and Dubas was like "nope sorry deadline is passed" then that would be the real failure because the only deadline that passed was the made up one that doesn't mean anything.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 02, 2018, 01:27:19 PM
Nylander is one of those young stars who also happened to be able to sustain a protracted period of unpayment. Iím glad no one played stupid(er) hardball.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Michael on December 02, 2018, 01:34:12 PM

The thread is locked so I can't quote myself directly but this is me on September 12th:

Quote from: Nik the Trik
Mackinnon signed his extension after two seasons where he scored 38 and then 52 points. He signed for 6.3 million which represented 8.63% of the cap. A comparable cap hit for Nylander, coming off two straight 60+ point seasons, would work out to roughly 6.9 million which would be a nice deal for Nylander

Now, sure, some might say that the rest of that post doesn't indicate this is a prediction but just a stupid joke but I'm still going to declare a sort of victory.

 8) Nicely done.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 02, 2018, 01:41:58 PM
This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.


No matter what Dubas and company told Lewis Gross about their deadline, it's human nature for Gross to think "sure, they SAY the deadline is 1pm but if we come back at them at 4:30 I'm sure they'll still move"

And he's not wrong in that thinking.  If at 1pm Dubas says "the deal is 6.8 take it or leave it" and at 4:30 Gross comes back with 6.9 are you going to say no over 100k?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 02, 2018, 01:42:34 PM
Nylander is one of those young stars who also happened to be able to sustain a protracted period of unpayment.

Realistically though, what's the minimum that any of these guys are actually earning on their ELC? Between salary and bonuses Matthews and Marner have to have made at least 5-6 million each by now even before you get to any outside money.

Nylander's dad made some money and maybe he was a bit better situated than most but none of these guys, if they have good rookie and sophomore seasons are going to sign their second contracts because their phones are about to be switched off.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 02, 2018, 02:32:24 PM
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/analyzing-william-nylander-brings-maple-leafs/

(https://assets1.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Nylander-returns.png)

Quote
Going through this cross-section of statistics, you can see that while Nylander is about the fourth-best offensive player on the Maple Leafs, he is absolutely their best transition player, especially at both blue lines. Nylander either carries the puck out or is the passing option on zone exits almost nine times per 20 minutes, which is just a monstrous amount, and he creates more controlled entries into the offensive zone than any other Leafs player.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 02, 2018, 02:34:54 PM


The thread is locked so I can't quote myself directly but this is me on September 12th:

Quote from: Nik the Trik
Mackinnon signed his extension after two seasons where he scored 38 and then 52 points. He signed for 6.3 million which represented 8.63% of the cap. A comparable cap hit for Nylander, coming off two straight 60+ point seasons, would work out to roughly 6.9 million which would be a nice deal for Nylander

Now, sure, some might say that the rest of that post doesn't indicate this is a prediction but just a stupid joke but I'm still going to declare a sort of victory.

I think it would be fair to say that you have a lot of posts on this topic.  Some of the other posts make different comparisons.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 02, 2018, 02:39:23 PM
I think it would be fair to say that you have a lot of posts on this topic.  Some of the other posts make different comparisons.

It's a fair point. Clearly that declaration of victory was unwarranted. Thank you for keeping me in check.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 02, 2018, 02:41:51 PM
Nylander is one of those young stars who also happened to be able to sustain a protracted period of unpayment.

Realistically though, what's the minimum that any of these guys are actually earning on their ELC? Between salary and bonuses Matthews and Marner have to have made at least 5-6 million each by now even before you get to any outside money.

Nylander's dad made some money and maybe he was a bit better situated than most but none of these guys, if they have good rookie and sophomore seasons are going to sign their second contracts because their phones are about to be switched off.

This was more as a point of comparison to some of the other RFAs that didnít quite go the distance with their GMs.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 02, 2018, 02:46:26 PM
It looks like the average game day thread is about 8 pages.  If thatís true, weíve spent ~200 pages writing about games.  I canít find the other Nylander thread but it was up to 150 pages perhaps?  So with 10 more here we are ~160?  ~200 vs ~160 is kind of ridiculous. Thank god it is over.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 02, 2018, 02:48:34 PM
This was more as a point of comparison to some of the other RFAs that didnít quite go the distance with their GMs.

Right, and I'm saying that I don't think any of them signed because of the money, or lack thereof, in the bank when compared to Nylander.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on December 02, 2018, 03:20:53 PM
It looks like the average game day thread is about 8 pages.  If thatís true, weíve spent ~200 pages writing about games.  I canít find the other Nylander thread but it was up to 150 pages perhaps?  So with 10 more here we are ~160?  ~200 vs ~160 is kind of ridiculous. Thank god it is over.
150 pages?? Gameday threads are only 2 or 3 pages. You do know you can adjust the number of responses per page right? Default is 15, max is 50. Makes for a lot less clicking....just saying.
Profile>Look and Layout>Messages to Display
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 02, 2018, 04:18:36 PM
This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If they had an internal deadline, the deal might not have been done at all. How is that a better outcome?

Why wouldn't it have gotten done?  The dynamics are exactly the same ... so long as Dubas (or whomever) makes it clear to the agent/player that it is a hard deadline.  Of course if the manager isn't committed to that, it doesn't make sense.

Because it's pretty obvious that Nylander's camp wasn't ready to deal until it came down to the wire, if what Dubas said about Nylander calling him is to be believed.

Any kind of internal deadline is just nonsense from the other side of the table. If Nylander's camp called back at the exact same time they did yesterday and said "Let's make a deal" and Dubas was like "nope sorry deadline is passed" then that would be the real failure because the only deadline that passed was the made up one that doesn't mean anything.

It's not nonsense if it's enforced.  That's what makes any deadline mean something.  If he'd set an earlier deadline and stuck to it, what's the difference?  The difference is that he would have had time to trade Nylander, if he he wanted. 

Think of it like this.  What if the metaphorical fax machine had gone down at 4:50p?  Say, a fire alarm goes off in the hotel, the power goes out, the cell connection or web or whatever goes down.  Today we'd be reading stories about how Dubas blew it, and he would have.  He, not Nylander's camp, controls the contract process.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 02, 2018, 04:21:05 PM
This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.


No matter what Dubas and company told Lewis Gross about their deadline, it's human nature for Gross to think "sure, they SAY the deadline is 1pm but if we come back at them at 4:30 I'm sure they'll still move"

And he's not wrong in that thinking.  If at 1pm Dubas says "the deal is 6.8 take it or leave it" and at 4:30 Gross comes back with 6.9 are you going to say no over 100k?

It's a moot point because I would have traded him by then, and I would have let Gross know that at 1pm.  :)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 02, 2018, 04:22:52 PM
It's nonsense because it's arbitrary. It's a line drawn in the sand purely out of ego.

Going down to the wire isn't really a risk like it was in the stone ages of fax machines. Probably it was a simple phone call to the league office to say "we have a deal in place." More likely, the deal was already at the office and they just had to say "done."
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 02, 2018, 04:24:17 PM
It's nonsense because it's arbitrary. It's a line drawn in the sand purely out of ego.

Going down to the wire isn't really a risk like it was in the stone ages of fax machines. Probably it was a simple phone call to the league office to say "we have a deal in place." More likely, the deal was already at the office and they just had to say "done."

Not out of ego -- to give yourself options.  Far from arbitrary.  And you missed it, the phones went down in the hypothetical.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: TML fan on December 02, 2018, 04:27:45 PM
This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If they had an internal deadline, the deal might not have been done at all. How is that a better outcome?

Why wouldn't it have gotten done?  The dynamics are exactly the same ... so long as Dubas (or whomever) makes it clear to the agent/player that it is a hard deadline.  Of course if the manager isn't committed to that, it doesn't make sense.

Because it's pretty obvious that Nylander's camp wasn't ready to deal until it came down to the wire, if what Dubas said about Nylander calling him is to be believed.

Any kind of internal deadline is just nonsense from the other side of the table. If Nylander's camp called back at the exact same time they did yesterday and said "Let's make a deal" and Dubas was like "nope sorry deadline is passed" then that would be the real failure because the only deadline that passed was the made up one that doesn't mean anything.

It's not nonsense if it's enforced.  That's what makes any deadline mean something.  If he'd set an earlier deadline and stuck to it, what's the difference?  The difference is that he would have had time to trade Nylander, if he he wanted. 

Think of it like this.  What if the metaphorical fax machine had gone down at 4:50p?  Say, a fire alarm goes off in the hotel, the power goes out, the cell connection or web or whatever goes down.  Today we'd be reading stories about how Dubas blew it, and he would have.  He, not Nylander's camp, controls the contract process.

Setting a deadline like that is a negotiating tactic and puts undue pressure on the player's camp to get a deal done before it needs to be. If a deal can get done under the wire, then all you're doing is moving the wire.

It seems like a great idea for the team but it would suck for the player. It seems to me that Dubas' process was to not be unnecessarily antagonistic, which is what this idea is.

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 02, 2018, 04:33:53 PM
This is may ultimately be a minor point but I still think letting it play out like it did is a failure (of process, not results) on the part of Dubas.  If the reported timeline is correct, they got the signed contract at 4:52p EST ... and still had to do some back and forths before submitting to the league.  That is insane.

Sure, it came out all right at literally the last minute but the process is important.  There was no need for that.  All Dubas/Leafs had to do is tell Gross/Nylander that our drop-dead, not-going-to-be-extended internal deadline is X, where X is some date/time well in advance of the official deadline (and we can debate endlessly what an ideal X would have been). 

There is no way a manager should have let that become a high-wire act.

I don't understand this line of thinking. If they had an internal deadline, the deal might not have been done at all. How is that a better outcome?

Why wouldn't it have gotten done?  The dynamics are exactly the same ... so long as Dubas (or whomever) makes it clear to the agent/player that it is a hard deadline.  Of course if the manager isn't committed to that, it doesn't make sense.

Because it's pretty obvious that Nylander's camp wasn't ready to deal until it came down to the wire, if what Dubas said about Nylander calling him is to be believed.

Any kind of internal deadline is just nonsense from the other side of the table. If Nylander's camp called back at the exact same time they did yesterday and said "Let's make a deal" and Dubas was like "nope sorry deadline is passed" then that would be the real failure because the only deadline that passed was the made up one that doesn't mean anything.

It's not nonsense if it's enforced.  That's what makes any deadline mean something.  If he'd set an earlier deadline and stuck to it, what's the difference?  The difference is that he would have had time to trade Nylander, if he he wanted. 

Think of it like this.  What if the metaphorical fax machine had gone down at 4:50p?  Say, a fire alarm goes off in the hotel, the power goes out, the cell connection or web or whatever goes down.  Today we'd be reading stories about how Dubas blew it, and he would have.  He, not Nylander's camp, controls the contract process.

Setting a deadline like that is a negotiating tactic and puts undue pressure on the player's camp to get a deal done before it needs to be. If a deal can get done under the wire, then all you're doing is moving the wire.

It seems like a great idea for the team but it would suck for the player. It seems to me that Dubas' process was to not be unnecessarily antagonistic, which is what this idea is.

I suppose if you set the deadline at July 15 or whatever it would be undue pressure.  I can't see how one anytime in recent days could be construed that way.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: TML fan on December 02, 2018, 04:35:37 PM
Because you're forcing their hand before it needs to be forced.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Rob on December 02, 2018, 04:44:13 PM
It looks like the average game day thread is about 8 pages.  If thatís true, weíve spent ~200 pages writing about games.  I canít find the other Nylander thread but it was up to 150 pages perhaps?  So with 10 more here we are ~160?  ~200 vs ~160 is kind of ridiculous. Thank god it is over.

Over? HA! We're just getting started.  Marner, Matthews, Kapanen. 
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 02, 2018, 04:47:39 PM
It looks like the average game day thread is about 8 pages.  If thatís true, weíve spent ~200 pages writing about games.  I canít find the other Nylander thread but it was up to 150 pages perhaps?  So with 10 more here we are ~160?  ~200 vs ~160 is kind of ridiculous. Thank god it is over.
150 pages?? Gameday threads are only 2 or 3 pages. You do know you can adjust the number of responses per page right? Default is 15, max is 50. Makes for a lot less clicking....just saying.
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Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 02, 2018, 04:51:02 PM
A win-win deal pulled out of a lose-lose situation.

Sounds like a good succinct summary to me.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 02, 2018, 05:12:54 PM
It's nonsense because it's arbitrary. It's a line drawn in the sand purely out of ego.

Going down to the wire isn't really a risk like it was in the stone ages of fax machines. Probably it was a simple phone call to the league office to say "we have a deal in place." More likely, the deal was already at the office and they just had to say "done."

Not out of ego -- to give yourself options.  Far from arbitrary.  And you missed it, the phones went down in the hypothetical.

It's arbitrary if they say "sign by this time or we move on". These lines are simply not drawn. They may have an internal line where they decide to pursue other options, but continuing to negotiate with the player will always be one of those options.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on December 02, 2018, 06:57:25 PM
Oh and forgot this, once you see what Marner will get (even with the home discount), this deal will look like a steal.  Matthews will be in for 12-13 for sure.

Put the cap at $84m next year.
Marleau's 6.25 = 7.4%
Willy N's 6.69 =    8%
Tavares's 11m = 13.1%
Marner's 9.5m* = 11.3%
Auston's 12.5m = 14.9%

That's almost 55% of the cap tied up in 5 forwards, one of whom isn't really a good top 6 option anymore...

While I agree Willy might not be top 6 on this Leafs team, I think we should actually let him play a game this season before making such bold proclamations.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 02, 2018, 08:40:08 PM
https://theathletic.com/688914/2018/12/02/lebrun-which-side-won-the-nylander-deal-nhl-executives-and-agents-on-the-impact-on-the-market/

Quote
ďShort term it was good for both, but the (July 2, 2019) bonus makes me think we may see a trade after that is paid,Ē said an Eastern Conference team executive on Sunday.

I'm guessing Dorion or Tallon here.

Yes, this means Nylander's front-loaded deal means a lower actual payout in the back half relative to the cap hit, which is highly attractive to budget teams, but I see this as a concession to Nylander signing to an average dollar amount barely under 7M. Money today is worth more than tomorrow and all that. Similar to the Tavares deal, the heavy signing bonus has more earning potential to offset the lowered cap hit.

I suspect Matthews will get something signing bonus heavy as well to entice a mid-season signing, well inadvance of the new CBA which will most assuredly want to curtail this advantage.

I like the 6 year term as well -- not so much for how much the Leafs have to spend on the follow-up, but because when they extend Willy again, he'll just be 28. Another six year deal would still be south of 35 years old, and Nylander doesn't play a style conducive to the kind of wear and tear that would shorten a career. Michael Nylander played NHL hockey until 35ish and played another decade+ of European league hockey.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 02, 2018, 08:45:25 PM
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 02, 2018, 08:46:02 PM
https://theathletic.com/688914/2018/12/02/lebrun-which-side-won-the-nylander-deal-nhl-executives-and-agents-on-the-impact-on-the-market/

Quote
ďShort term it was good for both, but the (July 2, 2019) bonus makes me think we may see a trade after that is paid,Ē said an Eastern Conference team executive on Sunday.

I'm guessing Dorion or Tallon here.


Maybe there will be a 29 trade once the Matthews/Marner numbers come in, but not until.  If at all.

And why would they trade him, in strictly hockey terms?  The only thing I would think could trigger that is if the D gets shredded in the playoffs and they conclude that there won't be a Cup w/o an upgrade there.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 02, 2018, 08:51:49 PM
Maybe there will be a 29 trade once the Matthews/Marner numbers come in, but not until.  If at all.

And why would they trade him, in strictly hockey terms?  The only thing I would think could trigger that is if the D gets shredded in the playoffs and they conclude that there won't be a Cup w/o an upgrade there.

Trading Nylander is the stupidest idea for the Leafs because Kadri's deal is up in 4 years at age 32, and Naz is not getting anything else from us at that point. Nylander is the built-in replacement.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 02, 2018, 08:58:21 PM
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: sickbeast on December 02, 2018, 10:44:38 PM
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.
That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I think over the long haul this contract will be fine but this season Nylander made off like a bandit.  Some kind of crazy insane signing bonus that made the contract work out to a $7.5 million AAV with only a ~$7 million cap hit after this season.  This was financial wizardry from Dubas and the Leafs.  Nylander got most of what he wanted and the Leafs flexed their financial muscle and kept the deal reasonable cap wise.

What I am wondering is, what happens if Matthews pulls a Nylander next season?  Or Marner?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Kaberle15 on December 03, 2018, 08:31:47 AM
What I am wondering is, what happens if Matthews pulls a Nylander next season?  Or Marner?

The real problem is the 1st year cap hit if they hold out. Those extensions should be the top priority, a hell of front loaded contract like Tavares and Nylander in the 88 x 8 for Matthews and 80 x 8 for Marner. I would also give Matthews the C to sweet it up.

In no scenario the Leafs can afford a hold out next season.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on December 03, 2018, 08:55:34 AM
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.
That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

I think over the long haul this contract will be fine but this season Nylander made off like a bandit.  Some kind of crazy insane signing bonus that made the contract work out to a $7.5 million AAV with only a ~$7 million cap hit after this season.  This was financial wizardry from Dubas and the Leafs.  Nylander got most of what he wanted and the Leafs flexed their financial muscle and kept the deal reasonable cap wise.

What I am wondering is, what happens if Matthews pulls a Nylander next season?  Or Marner?

Matthews is willing to sign a deal now. I don't see why the team doesn't consider him their McDavid and give him what he's looking for. I don't see this being a contentious negotiation.

Marner on the other hand.... Who knows. Technically any young talent can do what Nylander did now that the precedent has been set. But some players seem to be more flexible and would rather bet on themselves and take a 2-3yr bridge deal a la Subban/Kucherov and then take a longer deal afterward for more than what Nylander got AAV. We shall see....
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Peter D. on December 03, 2018, 08:56:33 AM
Glad this was resolved and finally over with.  But seeing in the end how it played out, can't help but think this could have been resolved three months ago with no need for this b.s.  And Nylander is no worse for wear finally from this dispute.  He did well and his agent deserves a little extra something as a result.

Really happy to have Nylander back in the fold.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 03, 2018, 08:59:33 AM
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.
That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

Iím just not that worried.  Guys miss chunks of games all the time and come back ó most frequently due to injuries.  Eg, Matthews missed 14 games? Nylander will miss 30?

Sure, it may take a month before he is back in complete synch with his line mates. That doesnít seem like the end of the world given the way the team is playing.  There is plenty of time for him to ramp up for the playoffs.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 03, 2018, 09:11:09 AM
I am happy with the deal. We're 19-8 and got him signed for 6 years under $7M. Life is good.

I blame the Oilers for the delay, stupid Draisaitl deal.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 09:31:58 AM
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/beyond-headlines-learned-dubas-nylander-saga/

Quote
There has never been a contract structured quite like it in NHL history.

The Leafs own tons of salary cap space this season and will start to feel the squeeze in 2019-20, so they came up with a way to pay Nylander heavy right away ó to the tune of more than $17 million by July 1, making him whole and then some for the days missed because of the impasse ó while gaming the cap system and keeping his AAV to $6.96 million for the final five years of the deal.

They also built in some lockout protection with annual signing bonuses of $3.5-million starting in 2020. They added a 10-team trade list in 2023-24, the only year he was eligible to receive such protection.

They basically guaranteed Nylander would walk away feeling good about the contract while keeping him within a range where they believe Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner can still be signed without breaking up the band.

The CBA's RFA deadline and cap hit calculation facilitated this particular salary structure that allowed both parties to feel like they won something. The picture Johnston paints is not one of animosity, though there were moments of frustration, but a group of people making some small concessions to solve a problem together.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: L K on December 03, 2018, 09:32:43 AM
The thing I really don't get about those takes is that they basically seem to think that the Leafs will want to keep Nylander for the years where he provides the worst value, but not the back half of his deal where his % of the cap shrinks to its most advantageous and he's still in his prime.

If the cap grows at the same rate over the next five years as it has the past five then it'll be at about 98 million. That means that Nylander's cap hit, as a % of the cap, will be roughly equivalent to a contract of 5.6 million today. I get that might make him more attractive to other teams but it's probably going to make him most attractive to a team like the Leafs.

Nylander's deal is basically the new Kadri deal. He's going to outperform this valuation immediately.
That has yet to be seen.  He has missed all of training camp and 25% of the season at this point.  It's going to take him some time to get up and running and even then things will never be the same.  He has missed all that time playing with his linemates.  All that time when he should have been learning Babcock's systems and strategies.  Remember he did only score 20 goals last season and he has missed 1/4 of the season now.  What does that extrapolate to, 15 goals this season?  Kapanen already had 10 the last time I checked.

Iím just not that worried.  Guys miss chunks of games all the time and come back ó most frequently due to injuries.  Eg, Matthews missed 14 games? Nylander will miss 30?

Sure, it may take a month before he is back in complete synch with his line mates. That doesnít seem like the end of the world given the way the team is playing.  There is plenty of time for him to ramp up for the playoffs.

At the end of the day we don't need elite Nylander in Game 42, but in Game 83.  He has 50 games to get into prime shape.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on December 03, 2018, 09:35:01 AM
Glad this was resolved and finally over with.  But seeing in the end how it played out, can't help but think this could have been resolved three months ago with no need for this b.s.  And Nylander is no worse for wear finally from this dispute.  He did well and his agent deserves a little extra something as a result.

Really happy to have Nylander back in the fold.
I kind of view this as a CBA problem more than anything else. Lack of arbitration means each side is incentivized to dig in.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 09:51:59 AM
Also from the LeBrun round up of responses around the league:
Quote
Another agent said the $7.5 million comparable wouldnít fly in his opinion.

ďThe 7.5 argument doesnít really work ó only real dollar matters,Ē he said. ďYou can, of course, argue that but it defies logic based on real dollars. Even an arbitrator would recognize itís at 6.969.Ē

When I was first contemplating ideas for how the lost-time cap hit calculations could work in the Leafs and Nylander's favour (which ended up being the result), I wondered if the 'actual' AAV would come into play as the benchmark for comparison.

I like that Pridham and Gilman basically structured it to pay out Nylander this season as if it was a whole year's salary, using whatever flexibility they had on hand to make Willy comfortable with the number they were settling on.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frank E on December 03, 2018, 10:27:20 AM
It looked a little uneventful when Nylander got in at Pearson.

Wearing a hoodie and stuff...who was the guy that picked him up?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 03, 2018, 10:38:29 AM
It looked a little uneventful when Nylander got in at Pearson.

Wearing a hoodie and stuff...who was the guy that picked him up?

That was me.  I drive for Uber.  It was a nice gig, he's a really down-to-earth guy, gave me a $20 tip!  About covers the gas for the trip in that big honkin' SUV I run.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bill_Berg on December 03, 2018, 10:43:25 AM
As far as the trade comment goes. The only way I see them trading Nylander is if because now that he's signed, his value is higher, so he'll return a defenceman of equal value. But that still depends on two things, one is that another team is willing to make a trade along those lines, and two is that the Leafs think they need to make a move along those lines.

I'll be surprised if he's traded anytime in the next 5 years.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 11:09:44 AM
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Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: L K on December 03, 2018, 11:16:35 AM
So probably Leivo for like a 7th or an AHL player who doesn't have to go on the NHL roster?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: digdug on December 03, 2018, 11:19:58 AM
Leafs sent Dermott down temporarily  to give them time to make a trade

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/maple-leafs-travis-dermott-temporarily-sent-to-minors/
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 11:28:38 AM
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I can't really see the return on Leivo being worth it to go that route as opposed to just waiving Gauthier or Holl.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 11:31:39 AM
So probably Leivo for like a 7th or an AHL player who doesn't have to go on the NHL roster?

Leivo for a upper quality AHL goalie who's already passed through waivers might interest me I guess. But if it's just for a 6th or 7th round pick then like I said just waive Gauthier or Holl, they'd both clear I'd imagine.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 11:37:19 AM
So probably Leivo for like a 7th or an AHL player who doesn't have to go on the NHL roster?

Leivo for a upper quality AHL goalie who's already passed through waivers might interest me I guess. But if it's just for a 6th or 7th round pick then like I said just waive Gauthier or Holl, they'd both clear I'd imagine.

I know this is probably just me being optimistic but at this point Leivo has basically played an entire season's worth of NHL games over his career. In those 84 games he's got 14 goals, 28 points with pretty decent possession numbers and only getting around 11 minutes a game.

I appreciate the ways in which the NHL doesn't tend to work like this but if that represented a single season for a player, what would that player be worth? Ok, still not much probably but the idea of getting a 3rd or a 4th for a guy who's sort of proven he can be an effective 4th liner with some scoring punch isn't the craziest thing in the world.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 11:58:08 AM
I know this is probably just me being optimistic but at this point Leivo has basically played an entire season's worth of NHL games over his career. In those 84 games he's got 14 goals, 28 points with pretty decent possession numbers and only getting around 11 minutes a game.

I appreciate the ways in which the NHL doesn't tend to work like this but if that represented a single season for a player, what would that player be worth? Ok, still not much probably but the idea of getting a 3rd or a 4th for a guy who's sort of proven he can be an effective 4th liner with some scoring punch isn't the craziest thing in the world.

Yeah I get where you're coming from, throwing a mid round pick away seems like a fair deal for a young player who should be a productive part of your 4th line. I just can't think of any comparables where a player like him got that much. But who knows. Maybe whoever loses out on the Brendan Leipsic waivers sweepstakes will be desperate.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 12:08:03 PM
Yeah I get where you're coming from, throwing a mid round pick away seems like a fair deal for a young player who should be a productive part of your 4th line. I just can't think of any comparables where a player like him got that much. But who knows. Maybe whoever loses out on the Brendan Leipsic waivers sweepstakes will be desperate.

It's not a perfect comparison but Frank Vatrano had somewhat similar numbers(31 points in 109 games spread over 3 seasons) with Boston when he was traded to Florida for a 3rd rounder.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 12:08:36 PM
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 12:09:19 PM

Babcock pretty convincingly said that Dermott will play tomorrow, so if no one went on waivers a trade needs to drop for that to happen.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 03, 2018, 12:09:41 PM
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I can't really see the return on Leivo being worth it to go that route as opposed to just waiving Gauthier or Holl.
We're spoiled... still important to manage assets as efficiently as possible. I would rather see Gauthier waived then receive a 6th or 7th round pick for Levio.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 12:10:09 PM

That seems to more or less jive with the notion that the contract dispute would mean that the room would resent Nylander and would reject his return.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 12:13:20 PM

That seems to more or less jive with the notion that the contract dispute would mean that the room would resent Nylander and would reject his return.

It makes too much sense for Marner to do this even if there was a rift in the room:
- Nylander sets the table for Marner's negotiation
- Marner loves memes
- Marner loves dancing
- Marner loves hugs
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 12:14:17 PM

Babcock pretty convincingly said that Dermott will play tomorrow, so if no one went on waivers a trade needs to drop for that to happen.

The Leafs could also swap Ozhiganov to the Marlies and bring back Dermott before 5pm.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 12:18:33 PM
The Leafs could also swap Ozhiganov to the Marlies and bring back Dermott before 5pm.

Right, that would be Plan B if they can't get a trade done in time.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 12:21:00 PM

That seems to more or less jive with the notion that the contract dispute would mean that the room would resent Nylander and would reject his return.

It makes too much sense for Marner to do this even if there was a rift in the room:
- Nylander sets the table for Marner's negotiation
- Marner loves memes
- Marner loves dancing
- Marner loves hugs


Basically, lol to anyone who thinks Nylander's stand was bad for the locker room.
Here we have the biggest reason this whole thing was a thing, and the most likely cap casualty both taking time out of their evening routine to welcome Willy.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: L K on December 03, 2018, 12:25:08 PM
So probably Leivo for like a 7th or an AHL player who doesn't have to go on the NHL roster?

Leivo for a upper quality AHL goalie who's already passed through waivers might interest me I guess. But if it's just for a 6th or 7th round pick then like I said just waive Gauthier or Holl, they'd both clear I'd imagine.

I know this is probably just me being optimistic but at this point Leivo has basically played an entire season's worth of NHL games over his career. In those 84 games he's got 14 goals, 28 points with pretty decent possession numbers and only getting around 11 minutes a game.

I appreciate the ways in which the NHL doesn't tend to work like this but if that represented a single season for a player, what would that player be worth? Ok, still not much probably but the idea of getting a 3rd or a 4th for a guy who's sort of proven he can be an effective 4th liner with some scoring punch isn't the craziest thing in the world.

You really kind of have to feel bad for Leivo in this scenario too.   He did everything the right way.  Kept his mouth shut despite sitting on the bench all of last year not getting an opportunity.  This year he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire but the 4th line has really been quite decent.  I'm really not fussed about say losing Gauthier and his 3 goals in 59 games.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 12:27:50 PM
You really kind of have to feel bad for Leivo in this scenario too.   He did everything the right way.  Kept his mouth shut despite sitting on the bench all of last year not getting an opportunity.  This year he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire but the 4th line has really been quite decent.  I'm really not fussed about say losing Gauthier and his 3 goals in 59 games.

Ultimately, I think trading Leivo would be doing right by him. Give him a chance to play for a coach that will appreciate his gifts.

It would tickle me to no end if Carolina took him for Brett Pesce.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Stebro on December 03, 2018, 12:58:16 PM
In Swedish media there was an article today about Borje Salming's call to William. It basically is about how money is not everything, and Toronto is the place to be if you love hockey, and how he really should consider the risks of not singning with a team where he is really appreciated by the coach etc.

https://www.expressen.se/sport/hockey/nhl/salmings-okanda-samtal-till-nylander/

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 01:08:07 PM
I kind of view this as a CBA problem more than anything else. Lack of arbitration means each side is incentivized to dig in.

I've been thinking about this a bit. I agree that the current set-up seems to encourage this sort of brinksmanship where a major chunk of a season can be a casualty but if arbitration were to be the other option I think it'd be just as bad as what it would do would A) add the often contentious and adversarial arbitration process to what might already be a tense relationship and B) would simply extend negotiations on long term deals that would seem to be in everyone's interests.

So what is a better solution? I'm not sure. I'm sure the NHL will try to get something in the next CBA that restricts the bargaining power of RFAs even further but I think history has taught us that any sort of power you give to players who are among the more valuable players in the game is going to be used to maximum effect. I think if the NHL really wants to avoid these disputes, some sort of softening of the cap is the only way forward.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: TML fan on December 03, 2018, 01:17:13 PM
Soften the cap? Yes please.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 01:28:06 PM

I don't like the idea of a cap but it feels like the thing people most like about caps(it restricts the ability of big market teams to build via the UFA market) doesn't have to be at odds with the thing people don't like about caps(restricting a team's ability to sign their own drafted/developed players at the market rate).

The only thing a hard cap really does is that it protects teams who think it's unfair that they should have to pay their own players a market rate. That shouldn't be the hill the NHL dies on.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: disco on December 03, 2018, 01:44:34 PM

That seems to more or less jive with the notion that the contract dispute would mean that the room would resent Nylander and would reject his return.

It makes too much sense for Marner to do this even if there was a rift in the room:
- Nylander sets the table for Marner's negotiation
- Marner loves memes
- Marner loves dancing
- Marner loves hugs

Also snak-pack and sippy cup.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 01:47:09 PM
In Swedish media there was an article today about Borje Salming's call to William. It basically is about how money is not everything, and Toronto is the place to be if you love hockey, and how he really should consider the risks of not singning with a team where he is really appreciated by the coach etc.

https://www.expressen.se/sport/hockey/nhl/salmings-okanda-samtal-till-nylander/



Using google translate:

Quote
BŲrje Salming talks further about the telephone conversation with William Nylander.

"I reminded William that in Toronto he is well-liked by the coach, he has played a lot. There is no guarantee that it would be the same if he went to another club. Then he could end up on the bench and finally in the farm team.

Okay Borje.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 03, 2018, 01:48:20 PM
In Swedish media there was an article today about Borje Salming's call to William. It basically is about how money is not everything, and Toronto is the place to be if you love hockey, and how he really should consider the risks of not singning with a team where he is really appreciated by the coach etc.

https://www.expressen.se/sport/hockey/nhl/salmings-okanda-samtal-till-nylander/



Quote
BŲrje Salming talks further about the telephone conversation with William Nylander.

"I reminded William that in Toronto he is well-liked by the coach, he has played a lot. There is no guarantee that it would be the same if he went to another club. Then he could end up on the bench and finally in the farm team.

Okay Borje.
Thanks Grandpa.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Stebro on December 03, 2018, 01:58:17 PM
In Swedish media there was an article today about Borje Salming's call to William. It basically is about how money is not everything, and Toronto is the place to be if you love hockey, and how he really should consider the risks of not singning with a team where he is really appreciated by the coach etc.

https://www.expressen.se/sport/hockey/nhl/salmings-okanda-samtal-till-nylander/



Using google translate:

Quote
BŲrje Salming talks further about the telephone conversation with William Nylander.

"I reminded William that in Toronto he is well-liked by the coach, he has played a lot. There is no guarantee that it would be the same if he went to another club. Then he could end up on the bench and finally in the farm team.

Okay Borje.
I don't agree with the risk of him ending up in the farm, however I think it was a good thing Borje called as he carries a lot of respect. What I think William was told was winning with Toronto is the biggest thing you can do in hockey right now, and the option is to play for a team where people don't play as much, and how he's got the chance of doing something neither Borje nor Mats did.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 02:22:56 PM

I am very happy that Nylander is staying in Toronto but I do sort of feel like Leafs fans would be wise to not lean too heavily on the idea that winning in Toronto is somehow better than winning somewhere else. I feel like that takes us uncomfortably close to being the sort of caricature some people say we are. It's the Cup, if you win it it's probably pretty terrific no matter where.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 03, 2018, 02:27:05 PM
Ya, I think it's up to the individual player to decide if it's the biggest thing or not.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 03, 2018, 02:29:39 PM
The first rule of fandom is to wear rivals' caricatures of you as badge of honor.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: disco on December 03, 2018, 04:16:48 PM
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/watch-live-leafs-nylander-dubas-address-media/
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 03, 2018, 04:32:03 PM
I missed it. Is there a place to watch it online?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 04:32:56 PM

Lots and lots of GMs have said this and then went back on it. But I feel like Dubas is a lot more likely to stick to it than most.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 04:48:14 PM

Short of something absolutely crazy coming up... I believe it.


Why would anyone possibly trade this?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 03, 2018, 04:56:26 PM
I don't get the NHLPA comment? In order for it to be processed, they need it by 4:30?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 05:01:29 PM
I missed it. Is there a place to watch it online?

MLHS Transcript (https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/12/03/william-nylander-addresses-the-media-i-always-wanted-to-be-here-i-want-to-be-a-leaf-for-a-long-long-while/)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on December 03, 2018, 05:01:56 PM
Lots and lots of GMs have said this and then went back on it. But I feel like Dubas is a lot more likely to stick to it than most.

I'm really not a fan of this, assuming he said it.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 05:02:18 PM
I don't get the NHLPA comment? In order for it to be processed, they need it by 4:30?

They may have said that so that there was some wiggle room to get everything wrapped by the actual deadline.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 05:21:10 PM
I'm really not a fan of this, assuming he said it.

I don't think it matters much. The odds of Dubas ever wanting to move Nylander are  probably pretty low and any change can be communicated to Nylander beforehand.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 03, 2018, 05:29:34 PM

I am very happy that Nylander is staying in Toronto but I do sort of feel like Leafs fans would be wise to not lean too heavily on the idea that winning in Toronto is somehow better than winning somewhere else. I feel like that takes us uncomfortably close to being the sort of caricature some people say we are. It's the Cup, if you win it it's probably pretty terrific no matter where.
For the player sure, but the overall reaction of the market it wouldn't be the same. Win a Cup in Toronto and the entire country knows who you are, you're a celebrity and legend especially in Toronto for all time. Win a Cup in Arizona, would most people on the street even recognize you the week after? I doubt it.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 05:33:12 PM
For the player sure, but the overall reaction of the market it wouldn't be the same. Win a Cup in Toronto and the entire country knows who you are, you're a celebrity and legend especially in Toronto for all time. Win a Cup in Arizona, would most people on the street even recognize you the week after? I doubt it.

I think that's already more or less how the markets treat the players though. Winning a Cup wouldn't really change how many people in Toronto/Canada know who Willy Nylander is.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 03, 2018, 05:36:31 PM
For the player sure, but the overall reaction of the market it wouldn't be the same. Win a Cup in Toronto and the entire country knows who you are, you're a celebrity and legend especially in Toronto for all time. Win a Cup in Arizona, would most people on the street even recognize you the week after? I doubt it.

I think that's already more or less how the markets treat the players though. Winning a Cup wouldn't really change how many people in Toronto/Canada know who Willy Nylander is.
Well, we've never seen a Cup winner in our lifetimes (apologies to the way older than me guys in here) so I can only imagine how popular the players would be if we ever won.  A buddy of mine, total geek who knows nothing about hockey and doesn't follow it at all, even he knows who Sundin is because of those conference finals runs the Leafs had back in the 2000s
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on December 03, 2018, 05:43:28 PM
I'm really not a fan of this, assuming he said it.

I don't think it matters much. The odds of Dubas ever wanting to move Nylander are  probably pretty low and any change can be communicated to Nylander beforehand.

I think it matters a great deal. A lot can happen in 6 years, and any "change that can be communicated later" is pretty cavalier way of saying that dubas can break his word without consequence to his reputation and the organization's by proxy.

And on top of this, every other player coming out of entry level will attempt to leverage the same commitment, since it's been on the table once. Either Dubas screwed up by offering it, or screwed up royally with Nylander announcing it.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 05:44:39 PM
For the player sure, but the overall reaction of the market it wouldn't be the same. Win a Cup in Toronto and the entire country knows who you are, you're a celebrity and legend especially in Toronto for all time. Win a Cup in Arizona, would most people on the street even recognize you the week after? I doubt it.

Leaving aside the fact that I'm sure some players would view that as a net positive, I don't even really believe that's true. The idea that a cup win would isolate a player from the sort of thing that happened to Sundin at the end of his career doesn't wash with me.

Winning the cup would certainly be a lot of fun and I'm sure fans would be excited but I feel like a little while later fans would go right back to wanting to win another cup and having the same sort of transactional relationship with the players we just saw throughout the Nylander negotiating process.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 05:45:55 PM
I think it matters a great deal. A lot can happen in 6 years, and any "change that can be communicated later" is pretty cavalier way of saying that dubas can break his word without consequence to his reputation and the organization's by proxy.

I think if the Leafs are ever in a position where they're forced to trade Nylander then things have probably gone catastrophically wrong and it wouldn't be Dubas making that trade, it'd be his replacement.

And on top of this, every other player coming out of entry level will attempt to leverage the same commitment, since it's been on the table once. Either Dubas screwed up by offering it, or screwed up royally with Nylander announcing it.

I mean yeah he's going to give the same commitment to Matthews or Marner, but it's not like he's going to make that promise to Kapanen and Johnsson.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 03, 2018, 05:46:53 PM

Lots and lots of GMs have said this and then went back on it. But I feel like Dubas is a lot more likely to stick to it than most.
Shanahan: "I've temporarily replaced Kyle as GM as he's taking care of family issues. Oh and I've traded Nylander.  Kyle will resume GM duties next week"
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 05:49:39 PM
I think it matters a great deal. A lot can happen in 6 years, and any "change that can be communicated later" is pretty cavalier way of saying that dubas can break his word without consequence to his reputation and the organization's by proxy.

But that's just it. A lot can happen in 6 years. Nylander may want out. Dubas may think the team should move on and Nylander is open to the idea. Both of those things seem more likely than everything going great but Dubas wanting to trade him anyway so the chances of Dubas wanting to trade Nylander and Nylander being really upset by the possibility seems pretty remote.

And on top of this, every other player coming out of entry level will attempt to leverage the same commitment, since it's been on the table once.

I don't think that's true at all. Forgetting Marner and Matthews, who it's probably true of anyway, you think Kapanen will say "You're not going to trade me, right?" and Dubas will...what? Feel morally obligated to make the same promise? Or if he doesn't than Kapanen will feel offended? Or think that the promise to Nylander represents some new organizational policy?

This doesn't bind anyone's hands.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on December 03, 2018, 05:56:43 PM
And on top of this, every other player coming out of entry level will attempt to leverage the same commitment, since it's been on the table once. Either Dubas screwed up by offering it, or screwed up royally with Nylander announcing it.

I mean yeah he's going to give the same commitment to Matthews or Marner, but it's not like he's going to make that promise to Kapanen and Johnsson.

I don't know about that, at least with Kapanen, especially with his supposed friendship with Nylander. He might be very much expecting the same treatment. At the very least now, with Nylander publicly announcing it, it will be a point of negotiation that wasn't necessary to introduce. Fine, won't offer me a verbal no trade like Nylander? Then give me another $500K.  And what happens when Sandin comes out of entry level, or other high value assets? Even if it happens with just the big 3 (which I doubt) I can see many scenarios where it would be wise to keep flexibility.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 06:02:06 PM

So Kapanen is going to think that because he's friends with Nylander, Dubas is somehow obligated to prize him as highly as Nylander?

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on December 03, 2018, 06:08:24 PM

So Kapanen is going to think that because he's friends with Nylander, Dubas is somehow obligated to prize him as highly as Nylander?

Absolutely he's not. But he's now negotiating with players who now have more to negotiate back with thanks to Nylander's proclamation.

As an aside, has a player in the NHL ever come out of an entry level deal announcing a verbal no trade clause as part of his offer before?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 06:12:27 PM
Absolutely he's not. But he's now negotiating with players who now have more to negotiate back with.

Yeah, I still don't really see how that would work. Kapanen will ask "Do you promise not to trade me?" and Dubas will say no and Kapanen will...what? What negotiating leverage does this give Kapanen? Why is it especially true because Kapanen and Nylander are pals?

It's not like actual NMCs or NTCs being given to some high end free agents mean that every free agent thinks they're entitled to one or somehow has more weight to negotiate one with.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 03, 2018, 06:22:02 PM
As an aside, has a player in the NHL ever come out of an entry level deal announcing a verbal no trade clause as part of his offer before?

I would say that these sort of promises/guarantees are probably more common than you'd think for star RFAs who aren't eligible for NTCs yet. Maybe you can argue that Nylander shouldn't have said anything, but I'd assume he was answering a pretty direct question about whether he was worried he would be traded and it's not exactly like Dubas hasn't said he had no intention of trading Nylander like a dozen times since he became GM.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 06:24:29 PM
I would say that these sort of promises/guarantees are probably more common than you'd think for star RFAs who aren't eligible for NTCs yet. Maybe you can argue that Nylander shouldn't have said anything, but I'd assume he was answering a pretty direct question about whether he was worried he would be traded and it's not exactly like Dubas hasn't said he had no intention of trading Nylander like a dozen times since he became GM.

Yeah, I feel like ultimately this is a direct response to the idea that was floated around by people like Friedman that Dubas was going to be signing him just to trade him after the big payouts. If Nylander asked Dubas about that, Dubas was obligated to say something and anything other than a pretty firm commitment to keep Nylander around could have resulted in less enthusiasm for a long-term deal.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 06:29:02 PM

I am very happy that Nylander is staying in Toronto but I do sort of feel like Leafs fans would be wise to not lean too heavily on the idea that winning in Toronto is somehow better than winning somewhere else. I feel like that takes us uncomfortably close to being the sort of caricature some people say we are. It's the Cup, if you win it it's probably pretty terrific no matter where.

Maybe, but was the Cubs World Series win not more exciting than the Royals the year before or the Astros the year after?

The Leafs have been without for a long time, in spite of a massive loyal fan base. Shanny talked about how much it would mean to win in Toronto as well. Thereís good reason why people say it.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 03, 2018, 06:30:56 PM

I am very happy that Nylander is staying in Toronto but I do sort of feel like Leafs fans would be wise to not lean too heavily on the idea that winning in Toronto is somehow better than winning somewhere else. I feel like that takes us uncomfortably close to being the sort of caricature some people say we are. It's the Cup, if you win it it's probably pretty terrific no matter where.

Maybe, but was the Cubs World Series win not more exciting than the Royals the year before or the Astros the year after?

The Leafs have been without for a long time, in spite of a massive loyal fan base. Shanny talked about how much it would mean to win in Toronto as well. Thereís good reason why people say it.
I want to see the Leafs win before I croak
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 06:32:25 PM
Maybe, but was the Cubs World Series win not more exciting than the Royals the year before or the Astros the year after?

To who though? The players on the Royals and Astros(who represent a huge city that hadn't won a World Series in their entire 56 year history btw) didn't seem less happy than players on the Cubs. The fans at the Astros parade didn't seem any less enthusiastic.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Michael on December 03, 2018, 06:40:59 PM
To who though? The players on the Royals and Astros(who represent a huge city that hadn't won a World Series in their entire 56 year history btw) didn't seem less happy than players on the Cubs. The fans at the Astros parade didn't seem any less enthusiastic.

Wouldnít you agree that the national (even international) appeal for a Cubs win was far greater? In that sense, the Cubs winning was a bigger deal. Someday (soon I hope) we may see the same for the Leafs.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 06:45:29 PM
Wouldnít you agree that the national (even international) appeal for a Cubs win was far greater? In that sense, the Cubs winning was a bigger deal. Someday (soon I hope) we may see the same for the Leafs.

I think that Chicago being a bigger club with a larger and more established fanbase drove ratings, sure. But this was about whether or not players would necessarily care, not if it would drive casuals to turn on their TV.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frank E on December 03, 2018, 06:56:17 PM
Wouldnít you agree that the national (even international) appeal for a Cubs win was far greater? In that sense, the Cubs winning was a bigger deal. Someday (soon I hope) we may see the same for the Leafs.

I think that Chicago being a bigger club with a larger and more established fanbase drove ratings, sure. But this was about whether or not players would necessarily care, not if it would drive casuals to turn on their TV.

I think the inference there was that if you won in Toronto, with the bigger fanbase and all that, that it would be a bigger deal because of the bigger more established, and Cup starved, fanbase.

So maybe you'd be a big deal to more people, and that would make it more enjoyable?

I don't know if it's a great argument, because I think if you were a Jet, and Winnipeg won a Cup, you'd be a big deal too, no matter what Kelsey's you went to for dinner in Manitoba.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 03, 2018, 07:04:18 PM
I think the inference there was that if you won in Toronto, with the bigger fanbase and all that, that it would be a bigger deal because of the bigger more established, and Cup starved, fanbase.

So maybe you'd be a big deal to more people, and that would make it more enjoyable?

I don't know if it's a great argument, because I think if you were a Jet, and Winnipeg won a Cup, you'd be a big deal too, no matter what Kelsey's you went to for dinner in Manitoba.

No, I agree. The issue is that if it's a difference, it's a difference in degree. I get the idea that hockey players are bigger celebrities in Toronto than in Arizona but as we've seen, that's not always a positive for players. Winning a cup would just seem to magnify that.

But even beyond that, whenever we talk about this we always tend to talk about Toronto, the biggest deal, vs. Arizona or a city that represents the other extreme. We never talk about the significant room between them. Take Minnesota or Calgary, for instance, would winning a cup in Toronto mean an appreciable difference for players here than there? That's much less clear and to the extent that it's true I think it's just a reflection of Toronto as a city more than any level of hockey fandom.

That said, I still stand by my saying that it's precisely that level of fandom here that would make fans here probably be just as quick to turn on players after a cup win as before. Winning will probably just breed desire for more winning.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 09:23:05 PM

This feels like a shot at Chiarelli.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 09:30:22 PM
I don't get the NHLPA comment? In order for it to be processed, they need it by 4:30?


This is literally the standard teenage response to a deadline.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 03, 2018, 09:40:58 PM

This feels like a shot at Chiarelli.

Just judging from reading the transcript of his remarks, it seems like he was dodging the question as much as he could.  Not sure he could be real happy with Nylander there.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 03, 2018, 09:42:15 PM
I don't get the NHLPA comment? In order for it to be processed, they need it by 4:30?


This is literally the standard teenage response to a deadline.

A 22-year-old teenager, I guess.  :o 
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 03, 2018, 09:48:12 PM
A 22-year-old teenager, I guess.  :o

The teenager lifestyle extends well into the 20s these days.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 04, 2018, 10:21:31 AM
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 04, 2018, 11:05:57 AM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/l3vR1AaADYcE7C8vu/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 04, 2018, 11:16:29 AM
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Arn on December 04, 2018, 03:06:06 PM
So. When does he go back into the line up? Weekend?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 04, 2018, 04:18:02 PM
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html)

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right. Marleau's contract could cost us a Johnsson or Kapanen or both. I really hope there was a wink an nudge agreement for the third year of his deal. Need to start giving him rest days for a "sore back", setting the table for Robidas island next year. Need the cap space in a bad way.

Brown/Hyman/Zaitsev/Oz may have to be replaced with lower salary guys. We're still going to be pretty damn good I just hope we can find some cheap role players.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bill_Berg on December 04, 2018, 04:38:48 PM
A 22-year-old teenager, I guess.  :o

The teenager lifestyle extends well into the 20s these days.

I was a teenager until I was 31.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bill_Berg on December 04, 2018, 04:42:16 PM
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html)

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right. Marleau's contract could cost us a Johnsson or Kapanen or both. I really hope there was a wink an nudge agreement for the third year of his deal. Need to start giving him rest days for a "sore back", setting the table for Robidas island next year. Need the cap space in a bad way.

Brown/Hyman/Zaitsev/Oz may have to be replaced with lower salary guys. We're still going to be pretty damn good I just hope we can find some cheap role players.

I'm not too worried. Brown may have to go. Zaitsev going would help. Kapanen and Johnsson are candidates for bridge deals. It's tight, but it's not really scary tight.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 04, 2018, 05:15:57 PM
A 22-year-old teenager, I guess.  :o

The teenager lifestyle extends well into the 20s these days.
Mine is 26 going on 12
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 04, 2018, 05:25:30 PM
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html)

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 04, 2018, 05:53:25 PM
I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

Yeah and unlike Nylander neither of those guys have done enough to warrant a big contract already so they don't have the hammer of sitting out and waiting. If they want to earn a significantly better deal, they'll have to be on the ice.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 05, 2018, 03:26:17 PM
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 05, 2018, 03:26:37 PM
ALERT

NYLANDER PLAYING TOMORROW AGAINST DETROIT
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: disco on December 05, 2018, 03:28:40 PM
COMMUNIQUE!
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 06, 2018, 12:02:02 AM
https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-16318/player-qa-william-nylander

Check out who Nylander would cast to play him in his biopic.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 06, 2018, 12:08:25 AM

Invalid Tweet ID
This was totally deliberate.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on December 06, 2018, 08:47:13 AM


It's time to start earning those big dollars he just signed for.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 06, 2018, 08:52:37 AM

Invalid Tweet ID
This was totally deliberate.

Let's keep this 29 theme going, Matthews needs 6 points in the game tonight to get to 29 on the season and properly welcome Willy back.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on December 06, 2018, 09:25:33 AM
https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-16318/player-qa-william-nylander

Check out who Nylander would cast to play him in his biopic.

lol is it because they're both pretty? hahaha Although Margot Robbie a lot moreso  ;)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 06, 2018, 10:08:33 AM
https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-16318/player-qa-william-nylander

Check out who Nylander would cast to play him in his biopic.

lol is it because they're both pretty? hahaha Although Margot Robbie a lot moreso  ;)
Jagr??? Meh...
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 06, 2018, 10:11:28 AM
Why did the "Big 3" thread get stopped, still 2 left?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on December 06, 2018, 10:15:59 AM
Why did the "Big 3" thread get stopped, still 2 left?

90% of the thread was probably about Nylander since he was the most pressing concern at the time.

Also it can be hard to keep track of new news/comments with jumbo threads like that, so at some point they just need to be closed and a new one started fresh.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 06, 2018, 10:27:15 AM
https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-16318/player-qa-william-nylander

Check out who Nylander would cast to play him in his biopic.

lol is it because they're both pretty? hahaha Although Margot Robbie a lot moreso  ;)

Probably because the actors would have to spend a good deal of time researching their subject of study, which I'm assuming is to his advantage. Margot already knows how to skate, but she'll have to substantially beef up for the role.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: disco on December 06, 2018, 01:38:04 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nk3u7WlajNs
Let's play some hockey!
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 06, 2018, 01:44:45 PM
https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-16318/player-qa-william-nylander

Check out who Nylander would cast to play him in his biopic.

When they do the big budget movie about this team breaking the streak, Margot Robbie should be cast in all the roles. Nylander, Marner, Babcock, with glasses as Dubas, fake eyebrows for Marleau, old man make-up to play Harold Ballard's ghost.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Rob on December 06, 2018, 01:48:17 PM
https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-16318/player-qa-william-nylander

Check out who Nylander would cast to play him in his biopic.

When they do the big budget movie about this team breaking the streak, Margot Robbie should be cast in all the roles. Nylander, Marner, Babcock, with glasses as Dubas, fake eyebrows for Marleau, old man make-up to play Harold Ballard's ghost.

I'd watch that.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 06, 2018, 02:20:37 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Nylander: Knock knock!
Dubas: Hey! *goes in for professional handshake
Nylander: *nah man, pulls Dubas in for a 5-pat hug

Elliotte Friedman: ...

Edit: oops, duplicated disco's efforts in the GDT
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 06, 2018, 02:58:40 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Nylander: Knock knock!
Dubas: Hey! *goes in for professional handshake
Nylander: *nah man, pulls Dubas in for a 5-pat hug

Elliotte Friedman: ...

Edit: oops, duplicated disco's efforts in the GDT
Love it, I want to give him a hug too.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 06, 2018, 03:01:23 PM
Invalid Tweet ID
Nylander: Knock knock!
Dubas: Hey! *goes in for professional handshake
Nylander: *nah man, pulls Dubas in for a 5-pat hug

Elliotte Friedman: ...

Edit: oops, duplicated disco's efforts in the GDT
Elliotte should keep his speculation to himself next time... his stock in my book went way backwards during this Nylander negotiation. He knew nothing the entire time and continue to spew garbage relentlessly. His BS should be called out.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Hobbes on December 06, 2018, 03:26:05 PM
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html)

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on December 06, 2018, 05:27:09 PM
Elliotte should keep his speculation to himself next time... his stock in my book went way backwards during this Nylander negotiation. He knew nothing the entire time and continue to spew garbage relentlessly. His BS should be called out.

I disagree completely. Freidman is a good reporter, one of the best in the market. He made it clear that it was his speculation on Nylander being traded, not that it was fact, or coming from sources. I'll take him over just about any other in terms of insight.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on December 06, 2018, 05:28:35 PM
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html)

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Hobbes on December 06, 2018, 06:51:50 PM
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html)

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?

Leafs would match anything non-insane for Matthews or Marner rather than let them walk so yes, if the goal was to further screw up the Leafs' cap situation that's the way to go.

With Kapanen I could see a team (Carolina?) making an offer in the 5x.35 or 5x4 range that would be a bit on the high side but not terrible...one that the Leafs really can't match because they won't have the room.

The Leafs could see a lot of their really good support players become potential targets for offer sheets that they really can't match yet aren't gross overpayments by the poaching teams.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on December 07, 2018, 12:16:27 PM
Elliotte should keep his speculation to himself next time... his stock in my book went way backwards during this Nylander negotiation. He knew nothing the entire time and continue to spew garbage relentlessly. His BS should be called out.

I disagree completely. Freidman is a good reporter, one of the best in the market. He made it clear that it was his speculation on Nylander being traded, not that it was fact, or coming from sources. I'll take him over just about any other in terms of insight.
I like Freidman too but he was dead wrong about Nylander the entire time. He was talking in circles, it made me cringe to watch.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 07, 2018, 12:36:30 PM

I don't recall Friedman ever saying anything about Nylander that was concrete enough to be "dead wrong".
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 07, 2018, 12:56:02 PM
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html)

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?

Leafs would match anything non-insane for Matthews or Marner rather than let them walk so yes, if the goal was to further screw up the Leafs' cap situation that's the way to go.

With Kapanen I could see a team (Carolina?) making an offer in the 5x.35 or 5x4 range that would be a bit on the high side but not terrible...one that the Leafs really can't match because they won't have the room.

The Leafs could see a lot of their really good support players become potential targets for offer sheets that they really can't match yet aren't gross overpayments by the poaching teams.

I agree that Kappy and Johnsson might be great offer sheet targets.

I posted another roster in the armchair GM thread. A difference was that it expects Matthews/Marner to come in at 11 and 8.5. Perhaps you think that is too cheap.

The starís roster could be optimized though:

- Oz at 2.5 is too much for what he provides. I think our 3rd pairing D needs to be sub 1 million ó a rookie like Sandin or a Marlie. So we can save 1.5 million there.  That allows us to pay Kappy 4 million.

- I would trade brown and put another rookie in his spot, saving another ~1+ million. That allows us to pay Johnsson ~2.5.

But yes, it is tight and they are still offer sheet targets.  Leafs get 1st + 3rd if cap gets a ~4.1 million offer from someone else.

We really need to dump Marleau to give us breathing room + a passable defense.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on December 07, 2018, 01:00:12 PM
We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html)

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?

Leafs would match anything non-insane for Matthews or Marner rather than let them walk so yes, if the goal was to further screw up the Leafs' cap situation that's the way to go.

I think an offer sheet to Mathews or Marner (if accepted and the leafs let him go) is a situation in which pretty much everyone loses ó The player, the leafs and the other team.  The leafs lose cup contention but the player goes to a team likely to suck long term ó it is hard to build a winner without any first round picks for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on December 07, 2018, 01:18:55 PM

I think when it comes to offer sheets one of the things that we tend to do is sort of over estimate both the worth of the guys on the Leafs but also the value other teams will see in "sticking it" to the Leafs.

Take the idea of someone offer sheeting Kapanen to a 5 year/20 million dollar deal. How many teams are out there who:

A) Don't have cap issues of their own
B) Don't have a Kapanen equivalent sort of guy around
C) Feel like it'd be a good investment for a guy whose hot start is both almost certainly a major product of his linemates and the weird scoring boost

There really are good reasons we don't see offer sheets. The idea that Kapanen or Johnsson are important enough players to junk all that seems pretty far fetched to me.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 11, 2018, 10:37:34 AM

I'm pretty okay with former players entering the media space. I'm very okay with Ray Ferraro slapping down idiocy.

Edit: So weird for the mainstream media to be collectively annoyed at Nylander for generating them a bajillion clicks in the first two months of the season.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on December 11, 2018, 11:41:08 AM
I like Ferraro. Provides a good mix of media-savvy with practical experience. I'm surprised Jennifer Hedger double-down on the whole "why not send him to the Marlies?" angle. Ferraro's response was good: "and what, play Freddie the Goat more?" Seriously, Nylander at 50% is 100% better than Gauthier.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: TimKerr on December 11, 2018, 12:03:00 PM
I like Ferraro. Provides a good mix of media-savvy with practical experience. I'm surprised Jennifer Hedger double-down on the whole "why not send him to the Marlies?" angle. Ferraro's response was good: "and what, play Freddie the Goat more?" Seriously, Nylander at 50% is 100% better than Gauthier.

I often wonder. Do any radio/TV hosts mean anything they say or do they just take a contrarian view in order to get clicks?
How can any rational person expect Nylander to be back to NHL shape after two games?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: bustaheims on December 11, 2018, 12:13:15 PM
When Jeff O'Neill's take is better than yours, you're in trouble. Yikes.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on December 11, 2018, 12:22:34 PM
I like Ferraro. Provides a good mix of media-savvy with practical experience. I'm surprised Jennifer Hedger double-down on the whole "why not send him to the Marlies?" angle. Ferraro's response was good: "and what, play Freddie the Goat more?" Seriously, Nylander at 50% is 100% better than Gauthier.

I often wonder. Do any radio/TV hosts mean anything they say or do they just take a contrarian view in order to get clicks?
How can any rational person expect Nylander to be back to NHL shape after two games?

I've never listened to sportstalk radio before, but I clicked on this because I do like Ferraro a lot.

I could only stand to listen for about 3 minutes.  It's pretty clear what the answer to your question is.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 11, 2018, 12:32:29 PM
If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on December 11, 2018, 12:41:32 PM
If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.
And the hot take for toughness is just so idiotic. The Bruins beat the Leafs by playing and executing a better overall game, not by being tough guys. How many defensive lapses did the Leafs have because they need more Colton Orr's?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 11, 2018, 12:43:07 PM
If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.
And the hot take for toughness is just so idiotic. The Bruins beat the Leafs by playing and executing a better overall game, not by being tough guys. How many defensive lapses did the Leafs have because they need more Colton Orr's?

I'm not concerned by the last 2 games.  It's the ebb and flows of a season.  The team plays really well for stretches and really poorly for other stretches.  Right now they're in a poor play stretch, but hopefully they can get out of it soon.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 11, 2018, 01:00:46 PM
If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.
And the hot take for toughness is just so idiotic. The Bruins beat the Leafs by playing and executing a better overall game, not by being tough guys. How many defensive lapses did the Leafs have because they need more Colton Orr's?

I'm not concerned by the last 2 games.  It's the ebb and flows of a season.  The team plays really well for stretches and really poorly for other stretches.  Right now they're in a poor play stretch, but hopefully they can get out of it soon.

https://theathletic.com/705404/2018/12/10/bourne-mike-babcocks-biggest-challenge-is-convincing-the-leafs-that-they-cant-win-on-talent-alone/

For those that can't/won't read this, Justin Bourne addresses what usually happens to a good team that a) thinks it's great*; and b) is getting back top tier players.

There is a natural sitting back up and down the line up as players expecting the returning star (or two in this case) to carry so much of the load tend to ease off the gas a bit, especially when you look at the lineup card of the opposing team and see a mish mash of AHLers.

In 2002 when the Leafs gritted out back-to-back 7 game series wins against the Islanders and senators, they lost Sundin partway through Round 1 after playing 3 games on a fractured wrist (https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/sundin-out-indefinitely-with-fractured-wrist-1.304812). He made a nigh miraculous return for the Carolina series and the Leafs immediately deflated.

Intensity and game speed are not switches to be turned on at will. Matthews and Nylander being out at the same time put a lot of the depth players in position to impress. It's going to take time for them to ramp back up; they're contributing but not quite to their best and certainly not in sync with the rest of the lineup yet. Honestly, I think it'll take nearly a month. The important thing is for them to be fully synced and healthy for April/May.

* It is my philosophy that a really good team needs to eat a few smack downs in the regular season so that complacency doesn't set in. I think that's why Babcock plays Andersen so much (so the team doesn't think this will just be a cake walk to throw the backup against), even down the stretch with the playoff berth locked up. It's very difficult to get a team to pull their hardest when there's no one chasing (or to be chased).
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 11, 2018, 01:09:23 PM
If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.
And the hot take for toughness is just so idiotic. The Bruins beat the Leafs by playing and executing a better overall game, not by being tough guys. How many defensive lapses did the Leafs have because they need more Colton Orr's?

I'm not concerned by the last 2 games.  It's the ebb and flows of a season.  The team plays really well for stretches and really poorly for other stretches.  Right now they're in a poor play stretch, but hopefully they can get out of it soon.

https://theathletic.com/705404/2018/12/10/bourne-mike-babcocks-biggest-challenge-is-convincing-the-leafs-that-they-cant-win-on-talent-alone/

For those that can't/won't read this, Justin Bourne addresses what usually happens to a good team that a) thinks it's great*; and b) is getting back top tier players.

There is a natural sitting back up and down the line up as players expecting the returning star (or two in this case) to carry so much of the load tend to ease off the gas a bit, especially when you look at the lineup card of the opposing team and see a mish mash of AHLers.

In 2002 when the Leafs gritted out back-to-back 7 game series wins against the Islanders and senators, they lost Sundin partway through Round 1 after playing 3 games on a fractured wrist (https://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/sundin-out-indefinitely-with-fractured-wrist-1.304812). He made a nigh miraculous return for the Carolina series and the Leafs immediately deflated.

Intensity and game speed are not switches to be turned on at will. Matthews and Nylander being out at the same time put a lot of the depth players in position to impress. It's going to take time for them to ramp back up; they're contributing but not quite to their best and certainly not in sync with the rest of the lineup yet. Honestly, I think it'll take nearly a month. The important thing is for them to be fully synced and healthy for April/May.

* It is my philosophy that a really good team needs to eat a few smack downs in the regular season so that complacency doesn't set in. I think that's why Babcock plays Andersen so much (so the team doesn't think this will just be a cake walk to throw the backup against), even down the stretch with the playoff berth locked up. It's very difficult to get a team to pull their hardest when there's no one chasing (or to be chased).

I read the Bourne article, it was pretty good.  Just addressing your last point about Babcock playing Andersen so often -- I think it's counterproductive to showing the Leafs they have to play hard all the time.  Let me explain, when Andersen is in and playing in top form, he regularly makes difficult saves look routine, so the team thinks they're playing well and are actually better than they really are.  If you have a lesser goalie in there, letting in difficult chances, maybe the team realizes it's got to collectively play better.  Look at Saturday, Andersen had a subpar performance, along with most of the Leafs on the ice, and they got hammered.  If Andersen stands on his head that game, and the Leafs eke out a win, will they feel even remotely the same way?  Nope.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 11, 2018, 01:22:39 PM
Just addressing your last point about Babcock playing Andersen so often -- I think it's counterproductive to showing the Leafs they have to play hard all the time.  Let me explain, when Andersen is in and playing in top form, he regularly makes difficult saves look routine, so the team thinks they're playing well and are actually better than they really are.  If you have a lesser goalie in there, letting in difficult chances, maybe the team realizes it's got to collectively play better.  Look at Saturday, Andersen had a subpar performance, along with most of the Leafs on the ice, and they got hammered.  If Andersen stands on his head that game, and the Leafs eke out a win, will they feel even remotely the same way?  Nope.

I'm a bit mixed on this, because having a goalie let in a bunch of softies early on generally means your team is now taking riskier risks to generate opportunity which also means your structure is now the shape of a poop emoji.

In any case, this team is still fairly young at the core and needs to learn how to balance when to press and when to maintain their mark. They know they can outscore a lot of their problems and it does make them a bit cocky; I don't mind the coaching staff pulling the reins at times to try to make them a bit more Babcocky instead.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on December 11, 2018, 02:46:17 PM
When Jeff O'Neill's take is better than yours, you're in trouble. Yikes.
I like O'Neill. He's def entertaining. I absolutely loved Ferraro calling out Hayes and calling him and fan boy for his take on Nylander. That was a beauty..
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: bustaheims on December 11, 2018, 02:48:14 PM
I like O'Neill. He's def entertaining. I absolutely loved Ferraro calling out Hayes and calling him and fan boy for his take on Nylander. That was a beauty..

He's entertaining, yes, but his takes are generally, ummm, poor.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on December 11, 2018, 03:36:22 PM
I like O'Neill. He's def entertaining. I absolutely loved Ferraro calling out Hayes and calling him and fan boy for his take on Nylander. That was a beauty..

He's entertaining, yes, but his takes are generally, ummm, poor.
Well that's the whole point isn't it, to be entertained? Like anyone else, I don't agree with everything he says but I do appreciate the perspective of a guy that actually played the game at that high a level. I also Jerry's percentages lol.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 11, 2018, 10:46:40 PM
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 31, 2018, 11:28:57 AM

I don't know whether to be happy or sad about this.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on December 31, 2018, 11:31:32 AM

I don't know whether to be happy or sad about this.

I wouldn't worry too much. I'm sure he'll take the weights off for games.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 31, 2018, 11:36:45 AM
Like I said, Nylander is the reverse Samson, much better with short hair
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on December 31, 2018, 11:50:01 AM
Shave the beard, cut the hair, whatever it takes to turn things around.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on December 31, 2018, 12:21:48 PM
you mean you want him to play for the Islanders ;)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on December 31, 2018, 12:58:39 PM
Like I said, Nylander is the reverse Samson, much better with short hair


Turns out it wasnít due to any visit from Lou, just his stylist/aunt wasnít around until now. Playing with Johnsson is sure to get it back up.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on December 31, 2018, 01:04:05 PM
Like I said, Nylander is the reverse Samson, much better with short hair


Turns out it wasnít due to any visit from Lou, just his stylist/aunt wasnít around until now. Playing with Johnsson is sure to get it back up.
Guy is a millionaire but relies on his aunt who's been cutting his hair since he was a kid
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 01, 2019, 06:47:36 PM

The top bunch of bars being where they are is why most fans are disappointed with Nylander so far.
(https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1600/1*Js-W8m1Kz3dFsg-yNDqxnA.png)

All the big blue bars where they are even better than before is why I'm not worried because that second block of bars is a far more stable indicator of the player's controllable effect on the game. The top chunk is scoreboard results.

Check out the SKATR comparison tool (https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/SkaterComparisonToolv2/Dashboard1) for yourself to see how Willy stacks up.

If you look at Matthews' you can see how he has struggled outside of actual scoring (which is great) without Willy on his wing. Look to see that rebound as we run through the back half of the season with Willy and Matthews reunited.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 01, 2019, 07:35:14 PM
I am not trolling you herman but I absolutely don't get the line of reasoning that the least controllable effects a player has on a game are the only results that really matter.  In philosophy they call that a "category mistake" (or a basic ontological error).
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 01, 2019, 08:45:51 PM
I am not trolling you herman but I absolutely don't get the line of reasoning that the least controllable effects a player has on a game are the only results that really matter.  In philosophy they call that a "category mistake" (or a basic ontological error).

Happy to discuss!

First off, letís look at what I actually wrote:
Quote
that second block of bars is a far more stable indicator of the playerís controllable effect on the game.

Iím certainly not saying that goal results do not matter; what Iím saying is that puck possession metrics in this sample of games is a better indicator of the playerís performance. Implicit in shot metrics are how much the team has the puck when this player is on the ice. We can probably pick out why Nylander is such a good play driver with some video, as outside of the first 4 games heís been forechecking well, stealing pucks at a higher per 60 rate than anyone else on the team right now, and exiting/entering zones with impunity. The numbers say when Nylander Ian on the ice, the puck ends up in the OZ for shots far more often than not.

If thatís happening so often, why isnít the puck in the net? Heís attacking from good parts of the ice, his teammates arenít garbage, what gives? Puck luck, whether people recognize it or not, is a thing. A player can do everything right to get into position and take a good pass in his wheelhouse and something prevents the goal (broken stick, rut in the ice causes a dman to stumble into just the edge of the puck and deflects it, whatever). Goals are rare in this game for a reason. On the other hand you also get Ron Hainsey goals where he blindly slaps it 4 ft wide but it clips the dmanís back skate as heís turning to crosscheck someone and the puck finds the net. In a small sample (i.e. a handful of games), those results are highlighted. After a quarter of a season (and sometimes it takes a whole season ó see William Karlsson or David Clarkson) their actual level of play is revealed (how many has Hainsey scored since his week of two goals?).

The Leafs as a team, by shot metrics, has climbed significantly (https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/12/28/18155092/toronto-maple-leafs-news-analysis-shot-share-improving) since Nylanderís return. Not all of it is specifically because of him but his presence adds to our depth and our depth is overtaking their opponents. Itís setting up our top lines for cushy offensive starts and generally getting them into better position to do damage.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: IJustLurkHere on January 01, 2019, 10:57:29 PM
I am not trolling you herman but I absolutely don't get the line of reasoning that the least controllable effects a player has on a game are the only results that really matter.  In philosophy they call that a "category mistake" (or a basic ontological error).

Isn't Herman saying that the second group of bars are the more controllable effects, and the ones that matter? i.e. shots share is more controllable than points?

Or am I missing something?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 01, 2019, 11:09:01 PM
Thanks herman, appreciate the thoughtful answer.

We have already disagreed before over how big a role randomness plays in goal scoring so I won't replay that.  (To digress, my own view is that the innate low-scoringness of hockey is primarily a function of how difficult it is to achieve the object, which is fundamentally determined by the ratio of the net size to the goaltender combined with the size of the gamepiece (the puck) and the speed with which it can be propelled.  Compare soccer, also low-scoring, where all these factors are different but utlimately in combination still give you a low-scoring game. In other words, scoring goals in hockey is hard mostly because the designers of the game made it that way.)

I totally understand that players can make significant contributions to scoring without scoring themselves.  But at the end of the day if those top bars aren't blue, then a player like Nylander is failing.  He's expected to score, not just support scoring indirectly.  I think it's fine to use these stats to point out the things he is doing right.  And I don't expect him to stay mired in a scoring slump all year. 

But I do think it is legitimate for fans to now begin to question how much longer non-scoring from him can be explained away.  That was the gist of something I posted last week, to the effect that he'd better start putting points up real real soon after the Xmas break or else face criticism. 

He's had enough time now to begin producing.  People can disagree with that but I don't think they can go on to characterize people like me who do hold that opinion as being unreasonable.

And again, for the record, I am a big fan of 29. 

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 01, 2019, 11:10:46 PM
I am not trolling you herman but I absolutely don't get the line of reasoning that the least controllable effects a player has on a game are the only results that really matter.  In philosophy they call that a "category mistake" (or a basic ontological error).

Isn't Herman saying that the second group of bars are the more controllable effects, and the ones that matter? i.e. shots share is more controllable than points?

Or am I missing something?

I'll let herman answer that, but part of what I am arguing is that you cannot say the first set of bars don't matter.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 02, 2019, 07:51:39 AM
IJustLurkHere was merely pointing out that I didn't say that first set of bars don't matter. My elaboration clarifies that I meant those results are not indicative of Nylander's true performance.

You're welcome to describe it as anything other than luck, but would it be fair to say there are certain elements to a goal's probability equation (which I'm out of my depth to generate) which are directly under the player's control, under other players' control, and subject to the whims of the environment?

The on-ice metrics measure the effect of the elements of the game most directly under said player's control. Everything else has a bigger spread of result possibilities that take many more samples to even out due to all the external variables (regress to their mean -- peak of the normal/bell curve).

As for when even I will start to be worried/disappointed in his lack of results, again I will refer to Johnny Gaudreau's rough first two months after missing training camp as that's really the closest comparable to this situation (and I wouldn't count players with pre-season injuries because that's a different issue). Scale accordingly for Nylander who missed training camp and two regular season months; it won't be a linear adjustment either as mentioned previously because all the players around him are in mid-season form. Personally, I think he'll be fine come mid-January and I wouldn't be truly worried until March.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 02, 2019, 10:18:03 AM
Lets not forget the reason why Corsi became popular was because it was the most PREDICTIVE measure analysts could come up with.  ie.  If we are going to use past performance to determine probabilities of future success, Corsi currently stands as the best measure.

So, herman is not incorrect in saying he expects Nylander to turn it around.  I think we all do, considering he has begun to look better and the underlying stats say its PROBABLE that things will improve.

That said, I don't think using Corsi is the best way to measure past success.  I would not agree that "those results are not indicative of Nylander's true performance".  Yes herman, they are.  He hasn't provided the offense we expect.  Some of it is certainly luck, but you make your own luck in lots of cases.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 02, 2019, 11:12:23 AM
That said, I don't think using Corsi is the best way to measure past success.  I would not agree that "those results are not indicative of Nylander's true performance".  Yes herman, they are.  He hasn't provided the offense we expect.  Some of it is certainly luck, but you make your own luck in lots of cases.

I don't think I was measuring past success here, merely that as he regresses to the mean, it won't be these dismal results. By true performance, I mean his most probable outcomes (i.e. getting points), which his current season's totals are clearly not reflective of. If you look at how often Nylander is getting his team into the OZ and what his shooting locations are, that's precisely how an individual player creates his own luck.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on January 02, 2019, 12:52:10 PM
One thing Iíd add is that it looks from those charts like Nylander has been very heavily sheltered ó bad competition and heavy zone starts whereas last year he probably had the opposite (at least in terms of competition).

Also, thereís corsi and thereís luck but there are other things that may well be under a playerís control but just harder for us to measure and/or not public data (eg: generation of pre-shot movement and/or proximity of other players).  Such things may be factoring into our ďeye testĒ when evaluating Nylander.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 03, 2019, 09:08:58 AM
He hasn't been 17/18 Nylander yet but the fact that his possession and some other numbers are still so strong is encouraging. He's not at peak performance and the points aren't there, but both those things will come. Let's not forget that Marner had some long stretches of little-to-no points in the first half of last season and he still ended up alright. He had a 10 game stretch where he was pointless in 9 of them and later a 12 game stretch where he was pointless in 10 of them.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on January 03, 2019, 10:20:14 AM
How about placing a meaningful bar for us plebs instead of celebrating zone entries.

For the balance of the regular season, how many points constitutes fair value for a $6.9M cap hit?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bates on January 03, 2019, 10:44:34 AM
How about placing a meaningful bar for us plebs instead of celebrating zone entries.

For the balance of the regular season, how many points constitutes fair value for a $6.9M cap hit?

If I understand right points aren't as important as analytics???
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 03, 2019, 10:45:58 AM
For the balance of the regular season, how many points constitutes fair value for a $6.9M cap hit?

There's really no reason to judge a long-term contract based on how year 1 goes. But going somewhat off of that, last season after January 1st Nylander recorded 33 points in 42 games. Assuming he's getting close to full-speed soon I'll be happy if he eclipses that benchmark.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 03, 2019, 10:49:16 AM
If I understand right points aren't as important as analytics???

I mean, yeah.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 03, 2019, 11:05:48 AM

I really don't get the ongoing thing here. I get some people think that by puffing out their chest and getting mad at slumping players they consider themselves to be holding players accountable or whatever but everyone wants Nylander to score, there's really no way to force it and he's playing well enough that benching him would neither help Nylander or the team.

So if Nylander doesn't hit some sort of arbitrary standard for good value then what?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on January 03, 2019, 11:15:57 AM

I really don't get the ongoing thing here. I get some people think that by puffing out their chest and getting mad at slumping players they consider themselves to be holding players accountable or whatever but everyone wants Nylander to score, there's really no way to force it and he's playing well enough that benching him would neither help Nylander or the team.

So if Nylander doesn't hit some sort of arbitrary standard for good value then what?
Then the Toronto fans and press run him out of town like they have with so many others.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on January 03, 2019, 11:19:34 AM
Don't think that's going to happen with Babs at the helm, he protects his players and that is why guys like Tavares are coming home. Nylander is going to be fine and all this talk will disappear like dust.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 03, 2019, 11:21:52 AM
Here's a timely article I suggest checking out: https://mapleleafsnation.com/2019/01/03/the-leafs-have-been-much-better-with-william-nylander-in-the-lineup/

Quote
You may have heard that William Nylander has been in a slump since he returned to the Leafs just less than a month ago. In that time he hasnít found the back of the net once, and has just two assists through 11 games played. Because of that, people are freaking out, going as far as saying he should have been traded instead of signed, all that kind of stuff.

Toronto fans going insane? Nah, couldnít be.

Anyway, while Nylanderís offensive struggles have started to make headlines, going as far as teammates having to declare theyíll do anything to help him find twine, itís worth looking at how the Leafs have done as a team since heís come back into the fold. Thereís a spoiler here: Theyíre good.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 03, 2019, 11:35:32 AM
Just another note regarding points vs analytics, if that's what the contention is for some.
It's a false dichotomy as analytics are simply studying game events that contribute to the generation of points averaged out on a more consistent, normalized manner.

The Points Pipeline:
Goals <-- Shots on Net <-- Shot Attempts <-- Puck Possession in OZ <-- Puck Possession in NZ <-- DZ exits

At this point in the game, there aren't any publicly available League generated stats beyond shot attempts, so that is the best proxy for all the events leading up to it.

As anyone who has ever counted coin flips before can tell you, it takes a good number of flips to get that 50/50 split between heads and tails, so it takes a larger sample size of events to get stable numbers (true performance). In the points pipeline, the sample size of goals is minuscule per game compared to everything that comes before it (2 goals off 28 shots on net from 78 shot attempts for example), so it is not a stable measure until you get a quarter to a full seasons worth of games. If you're measuring just an individual player, it's a season+ because while a team may be on the ice for a full game, no individual player is.

And if you're a good coach, or manager, and you understand the above, then you know the focus for each individual player has to be on maximizing what he himself can control, and eventually the results will emerge consistently.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 03, 2019, 12:01:29 PM
The current crop of analytics is a huge step up from Stone Age stats like +/-.  But it will soon be far surpassed by a whole suite of real-time-tracked movement stats for every skater on the ice.  You can be sure that a system like this, https://wisehockey.com/ (https://wisehockey.com/), now being rolled out in Finland, will be adopted and adapted by the NHL (probably on its own proprietary basis).
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 03, 2019, 12:10:42 PM
The current crop of analytics is a huge step up from Stone Age stats like +/-.  But it will soon be far surpassed by a whole suite of real-time-tracked movement stats for every skater on the ice.  You can be sure that a system like this, https://wisehockey.com/ (https://wisehockey.com/), now being rolled out in Finland, will be adopted and adapted by the NHL (probably on its own proprietary basis).

This stuff is going to be cool and all sure and I'm sure there will be some useful information but I also think a lot of it is just going to be filler/noise. Knowing a players heart rate at all times or how fast he passes the puck really isn't going to tell us which players help a team win the most.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 03, 2019, 12:21:49 PM
The current crop of analytics is a huge step up from Stone Age stats like +/-.  But it will soon be far surpassed by a whole suite of real-time-tracked movement stats for every skater on the ice.  You can be sure that a system like this, https://wisehockey.com/ (https://wisehockey.com/), now being rolled out in Finland, will be adopted and adapted by the NHL (probably on its own proprietary basis).

This stuff is going to be cool and all sure and I'm sure there will be some useful information but I also think a lot of it is just going to be filler/noise. Knowing a players heart rate at all times or how fast he passes the puck really isn't going to tell us which players help a team win the most.

They'll refine it.  Sure, some of the first-gen stuff is gee-whiz filler, but it's the movement tracking that will be the foundation for real advances.  Animated representations of shifts that can be fed into databases for visualization comparisons, for ex, will give us actual pictures of what the most successful shifts look like.  Then, as coaches begin to work with that, and react to it, new strategies will develop.  Etc. etc.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on January 03, 2019, 12:22:23 PM
So if Nylander doesn't hit some sort of arbitrary standard for good value then what?

It's interesting, in the 400,000 post thread about Nylander prior to the signing, points per game was an entirely relevant statistic brought up countless times for Nylander's comps.

Now, it's an aribitrary standard.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 03, 2019, 12:29:55 PM
It's interesting, in the 400,000 post thread about Nylander prior to the signing, points per game was an entirely relevant statistic brought up countless times for Nylander's comps.

Now, it's an aribitrary standard.

The difference between "good value" and "not good value" is arbitrary if based on PPG unless you've got some sort of line on a definitive objective standard that's somewhat unavoidable.

If nothing else, you'd think the 400,000 pages might have impressed on you that there is no agreed upon standard by which Nylander's point totals represented an amount of money he should be paid.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on January 03, 2019, 01:09:38 PM
For the balance of the regular season, how many points constitutes fair value for a $6.9M cap hit?

There's really no reason to judge a long-term contract based on how year 1 goes. But going somewhat off of that, last season after January 1st Nylander recorded 33 points in 42 games. Assuming he's getting close to full-speed soon I'll be happy if he eclipses that benchmark.

For comparison, I went to cap friendly "cost per point" - https://www.capfriendly.com/cost_per_point/2018/season/forwards/all/all/costperpoints/asc/normalized

- and pulled players making between 6M and 7.5M for the 17-18 season. This equally 41 players, with a seasonal average of 64pts. Over 82 games, that's 0.78ppg, and applied to the 43 game balance of this season, comes to 33.6 points.

Which is a whopping 0.6 off your estimate.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 05, 2019, 01:31:38 PM
https://theathletic.com/738397/2019/01/04/wheeler-digging-deeper-on-the-first-month-or-dozen-games-of-william-nylanders-season/

Do you like watching dozens of video clips of Willy in action? If so...

I'm also going to blockquote a section that really needs to be highlighted regarding Nylander's play, and fan perception of his play:
Quote
  • Players who arenít overtly physical in board battles arenít necessarily weak on them, or proportionately more likely to lose the battle. There are great defensive players who spent their careers reaching into battles rather than engaging directly with them.
  • Players who donít drop their head and look like theyíre working hard to get to a loose puck arenít necessarily lazy, nor are they guaranteed to get there slower. Some of the gameís fastest players donít look like theyíre trying all that hard from A to B.
The truth about Nylander is that he doesnít look like heís engaged defensively in the same way as a Johnsson does, but his results (both in terms of the eye test and supporting data) suggest heís a positive presence on his lines defensively and wins his fair share of battles.

One of the things that has impressed me about Nylanderís return is that despite his stagnated numbers in terms of raw outputs, he hasnít fallen into bad habits or tried to cheat (at least not as often as a high-end scorer like him might during a slump).

My first (and only) live viewing of Nylander was the Marlies game before his first (and only) call up to the big squad, the day before the trade deadline, hair freshly shorn in apparent anticipation of having to face Lou daily. He made an impact on the scoresheet and an impact on the ice and throughout his play, it looked like he was just casually (maybe even lazily) going about his business.

It wasn't lack of effort: it was simply being naturally gifted (and honed) in the parts of the game that others normally have to exhibit tremendous effort to achieve.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: sickbeast on January 08, 2019, 10:09:33 PM
I've gotta say I'm not a fan of the whole Nylander thing right now.  I would love to be proven wrong later in the season.  But as of right now I'm not a fan of the way it went down and also the way he has been playing.  It's like he got the big contract and now he's checked out.  I always found this situation to be a bad thing for team chemistry.  We'll see I guess.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 08, 2019, 11:12:37 PM
Lol

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on January 20, 2019, 01:23:33 PM
The beard is off. Willy doing everything to turn it around..
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Joe S. on January 20, 2019, 01:46:09 PM
I know quoting oneself is tacky - but I just feel that I wasnít off when I said this:

Iím as happy as anyone here that this story is over now. Iím just trying to be realistic with my expectations for Nylanderís performance this year. Typically when a player misses camp they come back all out of sync and take a while to get going. Weíre not just talking camp here - itís been 3 months.

Obviously the team is better with him - I just have a feeling itís not going to be a smooth transition.

Itíll come around. Maybe this will end up being a lost season for him but come on, he didnít lose all his talent at 22. Heís still a high impact player who will be a significant contributor over the next several years. Patience.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on January 20, 2019, 02:38:57 PM
I know quoting oneself is tacky - but I just feel that I wasnít off when I said this:

Iím as happy as anyone here that this story is over now. Iím just trying to be realistic with my expectations for Nylanderís performance this year. Typically when a player misses camp they come back all out of sync and take a while to get going. Weíre not just talking camp here - itís been 3 months.

Obviously the team is better with him - I just have a feeling itís not going to be a smooth transition.

Itíll come around. Maybe this will end up being a lost season for him but come on, he didnít lose all his talent at 22. Heís still a high impact player who will be a significant contributor over the next several years. Patience.
I think now it's more about the effort out there. If he was going full out I don't think anyone would complain. It's the, sometimes, lack of competitiveness in his game that irks me. Honestly he needs to play more like Kappy and Johnsson and get in there and get the puck.
It's still hard hopping on that moving train tho. I know it will come.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on January 20, 2019, 03:08:59 PM
I think now it's more about the effort out there. If he was going full out I don't think anyone would complain. It's the, sometimes, lack of competitiveness in his game that irks me. Honestly he needs to play more like Kappy and Johnsson and get in there and get the puck.

Yeah, getting on the body has never really been part of his game, and I hope he doesn't change it just for optics, cause that isn't what he needs to do. The main problem is that he's a half-step behind in terms of reading plays, getting up to speed, and making decisions - and most importantly, I think his overall conditioning is still coming along - he's been good at the beginning of the game, and starts to trail off mid-2nd period.

To that point, and it's just a guess, but I think the reason Babcock is giving him reduced icetime and 4th line duty toward the end of games isn't because he's in the doghouse, but because he doesn't have the conditioning to play a full game at peak speed, and needs more recovery time. I'll bet within 10 more games, it won't be an issue and he'll be taking a regular shift with Matthews.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on January 20, 2019, 03:34:59 PM
The beard is off. Willy doing everything to turn it around..
The beard was holding him back, maybe Lou knows something after all
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on January 20, 2019, 03:36:58 PM
I know quoting oneself is tacky - but I just feel that I wasnít off when I said this:

Iím as happy as anyone here that this story is over now. Iím just trying to be realistic with my expectations for Nylanderís performance this year. Typically when a player misses camp they come back all out of sync and take a while to get going. Weíre not just talking camp here - itís been 3 months.

Obviously the team is better with him - I just have a feeling itís not going to be a smooth transition.

Itíll come around. Maybe this will end up being a lost season for him but come on, he didnít lose all his talent at 22. Heís still a high impact player who will be a significant contributor over the next several years. Patience.
I think now it's more about the effort out there. If he was going full out I don't think anyone would complain. It's the, sometimes, lack of competitiveness in his game that irks me. Honestly he needs to play more like Kappy and Johnsson and get in there and get the puck.
It's still hard hopping on that moving train tho. I know it will come.

No one could complain about getting the puck even more, but really, he has the puck all the time already. Way more than Johnsson does, for example.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 20, 2019, 04:12:56 PM
The beard is off. Willy doing everything to turn it around..
The beard was holding him back, maybe Lou knows something after all

This makes no sense whatsoever but I actually think it will make a difference
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on January 20, 2019, 04:13:23 PM
I know quoting oneself is tacky - but I just feel that I wasnít off when I said this:

Iím as happy as anyone here that this story is over now. Iím just trying to be realistic with my expectations for Nylanderís performance this year. Typically when a player misses camp they come back all out of sync and take a while to get going. Weíre not just talking camp here - itís been 3 months.

Obviously the team is better with him - I just have a feeling itís not going to be a smooth transition.

Itíll come around. Maybe this will end up being a lost season for him but come on, he didnít lose all his talent at 22. Heís still a high impact player who will be a significant contributor over the next several years. Patience.
I think now it's more about the effort out there. If he was going full out I don't think anyone would complain. It's the, sometimes, lack of competitiveness in his game that irks me. Honestly he needs to play more like Kappy and Johnsson and get in there and get the puck.
It's still hard hopping on that moving train tho. I know it will come.

No one could complain about getting the puck even more, but really, he has the puck all the time already. Way more than Johnsson does, for example.
It's not about doing things all the time with the puck. It's about doing stuff also when you don't. Sometimes he's very lazy on the D side of things and some times he doesn't battle too hard. His compete level isn't where it needs to be. We've def seen glimpses, just not enough of it.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CatScratchFever on January 20, 2019, 04:37:16 PM
I know quoting oneself is tacky - but I just feel that I wasnít off when I said this:

Iím as happy as anyone here that this story is over now. Iím just trying to be realistic with my expectations for Nylanderís performance this year. Typically when a player misses camp they come back all out of sync and take a while to get going. Weíre not just talking camp here - itís been 3 months.

Obviously the team is better with him - I just have a feeling itís not going to be a smooth transition.

Itíll come around. Maybe this will end up being a lost season for him but come on, he didnít lose all his talent at 22. Heís still a high impact player who will be a significant contributor over the next several years. Patience.
I think now it's more about the effort out there. If he was going full out I don't think anyone would complain. It's the, sometimes, lack of competitiveness in his game that irks me. Honestly he needs to play more like Kappy and Johnsson and get in there and get the puck.
It's still hard hopping on that moving train tho. I know it will come.

No one could complain about getting the puck even more, but really, he has the puck all the time already. Way more than Johnsson does, for example.
It's not about doing things all the time with the puck. It's about doing stuff also when you don't. Sometimes he's very lazy on the D side of things and some times he doesn't battle too hard. His compete level isn't where it needs to be. We've def seen glimpses, just not enough of it.

In other words he's a skill player but not a leader. I think he's another Sergei Berezin.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 20, 2019, 07:12:18 PM
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on January 21, 2019, 06:40:42 PM
I would like to see Willie play at C, let him grow into the role, put Kapi  and Johnsson (on return beside him).
This make Kadri amazing trade bait at his current rate. Kadri has been playing just a putridly as Hainsey and for the most part Bad Jake TM.   Cut Jake and Kadri and save best part of 10 million a year....just saying...as Kadri grew up a Canadians fan perhaps he would be a great fit there.  Sorry, I have grown to love the guy, but this season...not.
So you have Tavares, Matthews, Nylander and Goat (shut down, D guy) as our Centres, we could do a lot worse and the trade bate for Kadri and Jake bad TM would be very good, especially if you dangle a Bracco or Engvall and a good draft pick or two. We need a stud D man
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 21, 2019, 08:55:42 PM
Ryan Lambert provides his hot take:

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/31-takes-william-nylander-bad-player-ruined-maple-leafs-ashamed-150026209.html
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: hockeyfan1 on January 22, 2019, 03:04:50 AM
Itís all Willyís fault!  No, the problem with the Leafs lies much deeper than Willy Ny.  Mirtle puts it in perspective:

Quote
...Whatís interesting about Torontoís slump, however, is it is probably more goals against driven than goals for.

The power play is struggling, sure, and Nylander has rarely hit the scoresheet, but the Leafsí goal scoring is only down 0.34 per game over the past 20 games. Their goals against, meanwhile, are up 0.59 per game.

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 22, 2019, 02:11:08 PM
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: OldTimeHockey on January 22, 2019, 08:16:09 PM

That's pretty cool.

Not sure what it's showing me, but it's pretty cool. Odd that his only goal is a short side shot, top shelf. I assume that's what the green one is showing.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on January 22, 2019, 09:47:02 PM
Not sure what it's showing me, but it's pretty cool.

I'm not sure either. I think it's perhaps proving that he doesn't always miss the net.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 22, 2019, 11:08:31 PM
Not sure what it's showing me, but it's pretty cool.

I'm not sure either. I think it's perhaps proving that he doesn't always miss the net.

I think itís a proprietary tool (Stathletes) that visualizes shot locations and trajectories overlaid together. Similar to the heat maps for locations, but 3D and unsmeared. Meghanís brother is John Chayka of the Coyotes.

Further down thread she explains that the missed shots were filtered out because it would be very cluttered. The green line is indeed the goal, which she highlights further in the thread.

Hereís a recent sampling of Matthewsí locations and trajectories.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on January 23, 2019, 10:12:36 AM
Meghan is a Babeaholic. Sorry but she could be my GM
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 23, 2019, 10:16:27 AM
Meghan is a Babeaholic. Sorry but she could be my GM

Always great to see a woman reduced to her looks but beyond that wouldn't a babeaholic be someone addicted to Babes as opposed to one herself?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 23, 2019, 10:38:07 AM
She started a stats tracking company and has a pretty good handle on how the game is played and analyzed and would probably be a better front office pick than many incumbent hockey men.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on January 23, 2019, 11:38:37 AM
Meghan is a Babeaholic. Sorry but she could be my GM

Always great to see a woman reduced to her looks but beyond that wouldn't a babeaholic be someone addicted to Babes as opposed to one herself?
I'm a workaholic, every time you mention work I get drunk ;)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cap44 on January 23, 2019, 03:53:11 PM
how about a trade with poor Edmonton to help us both out. Nylander for Darnell Nurse
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 23, 2019, 03:55:17 PM
how about a trade with poor Edmonton to help us both out. Nylander for Darnell Nurse

I'd say Edmonton probably wouldn't do this trade, which when you think about it is probably a good enough reason for the Leafs to not want to make it either.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on January 23, 2019, 04:10:41 PM
how about a trade with poor Edmonton to help us both out. Nylander for Darnell Nurse
Oilers are up against the cap so they couldn't afford him anyway.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bates on January 23, 2019, 04:44:28 PM
I kinda like Nurse but he's more Kapanen in value than Nylander IMO.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: hrundi99 on January 23, 2019, 05:45:38 PM
Meghan is a Babeaholic. Sorry but she could be my GM

Always great to see a woman reduced to her looks but beyond that wouldn't a babeaholic be someone addicted to Babes as opposed to one herself?

It's a "Wayne's World" thing...
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on January 23, 2019, 05:49:29 PM
I kinda like Nurse but he's more Kapanen in value than Nylander IMO.
More Johnsson...lol
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bates on January 23, 2019, 05:50:21 PM
I kinda like Nurse but he's more Kapanen in value than Nylander IMO.
More Johnsson...lol

I think he would be a good 2nd pairing guy.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on January 23, 2019, 05:56:18 PM
I kinda like Nurse but he's more Kapanen in value than Nylander IMO.
More Johnsson...lol

I think he would be a good 2nd pairing guy.
Totally agree.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 23, 2019, 06:03:40 PM
I kinda like Nurse but he's more Kapanen in value than Nylander IMO.

Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bates on January 23, 2019, 06:11:50 PM
I kinda like Nurse but he's more Kapanen in value than Nylander IMO.

Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Nylander is better but not sure on value until Kapanen signs a new contract.  But if Oiler's are selling a trade of Nurse, Kapanen will make for unhappy fans.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cap44 on January 23, 2019, 06:13:21 PM
I kinda like Nurse but he's more Kapanen in value than Nylander IMO.

Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Kapenan by a long shot
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on January 23, 2019, 10:35:51 PM
Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Kapenan by a long shot

No. This is incorrect.

Almost exact same age and size. Play the same position for the same team. Nylander has twice as many games played and 3.5 times as many points.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 23, 2019, 10:44:05 PM
Meghan is a Babeaholic. Sorry but she could be my GM

Always great to see a woman reduced to her looks but beyond that wouldn't a babeaholic be someone addicted to Babes as opposed to one herself?

It's a "Wayne's World" thing...

Nope. In Wayne's World it's "If she were a President she'd be Baberaham Lincolnn".
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on January 23, 2019, 11:02:52 PM
Exactly
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 23, 2019, 11:08:11 PM
Exactly

Right, the operative joke there being substituting Babe for something that rhymes like Abe. Not just inserting Babe into a random word.

Don't you worry man, one of these days I'm going to get you to understand how good jokes work.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 24, 2019, 08:28:12 AM
Last 2 games:

Nylander, 4 points +4
Kapanen, 0 points -4

Wow who's better now?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bates on January 24, 2019, 09:25:23 AM
Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Kapenan by a long shot

No. This is incorrect.

Almost exact same age and size. Play the same position for the same team. Nylander has twice as many games played and 3.5 times as many points.

Have to consider contract when deciding value. 
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on January 24, 2019, 09:36:48 AM
Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Kapenan by a long shot

No. This is incorrect.

Almost exact same age and size. Play the same position for the same team. Nylander has twice as many games played and 3.5 times as many points.

Have to consider contract when deciding value.

True, but whole body of work and future value should also be considered. Looking at the contract in a vacuum doesn't tell you anything.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 24, 2019, 10:13:56 AM
This is one of the most succinct and cogent descriptions of Nylander/Marner I've seen
Invalid Tweet ID
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bates on January 24, 2019, 10:17:09 AM
Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Kapenan by a long shot

No. This is incorrect.

Almost exact same age and size. Play the same position for the same team. Nylander has twice as many games played and 3.5 times as many points.

Have to consider contract when deciding value.

True, but whole body of work and future value should also be considered. Looking at the contract in a vacuum doesn't tell you anything.

Never suggested in vacuum, but above I suggested you need to know Kapanen next contract before being able to even think about comparing their value. Kapanen at $2 million might present greater value than Nylander. Kapanen at $5 million changes it completely for me.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: L K on January 24, 2019, 10:24:53 AM
Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Kapenan by a long shot

No. This is incorrect.

Almost exact same age and size. Play the same position for the same team. Nylander has twice as many games played and 3.5 times as many points.

Have to consider contract when deciding value.

True, but whole body of work and future value should also be considered. Looking at the contract in a vacuum doesn't tell you anything.

Never suggested in vacuum, but above I suggested you need to know Kapanen next contract before being able to even think about comparing their value. Kapanen at $2 million might present greater value than Nylander. Kapanen at $5 million changes it completely for me.

Kapanen scoring 50+ points isn't going to get a 2 million dollar contract though.  Hyman off a 28 point season got 4 years-9 million.  Kapanen already has more goals and points than that season.
Brown got 2.1 for scoring 20G 16A.

It's optimistic to think that Kapanen gets anywhere less than 3.5 I think.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bates on January 24, 2019, 10:34:40 AM
Who's higher in value, Kapanen or Nylander?  ???

Kapenan by a long shot

No. This is incorrect.

Almost exact same age and size. Play the same position for the same team. Nylander has twice as many games played and 3.5 times as many points.

Have to consider contract when deciding value.

True, but whole body of work and future value should also be considered. Looking at the contract in a vacuum doesn't tell you anything.

Never suggested in vacuum, but above I suggested you need to know Kapanen next contract before being able to even think about comparing their value. Kapanen at $2 million might present greater value than Nylander. Kapanen at $5 million changes it completely for me.

Kapanen scoring 50+ points isn't going to get a 2 million dollar contract though.  Hyman off a 28 point season got 4 years-9 million.  Kapanen already has more goals and points than that season.
Brown got 2.1 for scoring 20G 16A.

It's optimistic to think that Kapanen gets anywhere less than 3.5 I think.

I agree and that contract would make for a good debate on value comparison to Nylander. Nylander drives play and is a better player but I'm not sure he's better than twice the price of Kapanen??? Especially for top heavy Leafs with better options at center.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 24, 2019, 09:23:36 PM

Nylander heating up as Marner inevitably cools down will keep the Leafs going.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 25, 2019, 09:46:18 AM

Nylander heating up as Marner inevitably cools down will keep the Leafs going.

You can use subjective stats to find positives but at the end of the day, until the NHL starts deciding games on scoring chances instead of goals scored the Leafs it ain't gonna mean much except, he should be doing better.

Question, who gets to decide what a scoring chance is? Is it the same guy who decides what a hit is?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 25, 2019, 09:51:01 AM
You can use subjective stats to find positives but at the end of the day, until the NHL starts deciding games on scoring chances instead of goals scored the Leafs it ain't gonna mean much except, he should be doing better.

It's not about "finding positives" but about trying to put a scoring slump into context of bad luck vs. actually bad play.

Teams lose games because of bad luck all the time, it doesn't mean they lose an emphasis on playing well.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 25, 2019, 10:13:22 AM
You can use subjective stats to find positives but at the end of the day, until the NHL starts deciding games on scoring chances instead of goals scored the Leafs it ain't gonna mean much except, he should be doing better.

It's not about "finding positives" but about trying to put a scoring slump into context of bad luck vs. actually bad play.

Teams lose games because of bad luck all the time, it doesn't mean they lose an emphasis on playing well.

Yes, but to say Willy hasn't been scoring because of "bad luck" is disingenuous. His play has been bad, until very recently. I would say hasn't been "sharp" enough to capitalize on those opportunities.

Tbh, I'm skeptical on what these "scoring chances" are because until recently, Nylander wasn't generating much in the offensive zone. He has a total of 38 shots on goal so far this year.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 25, 2019, 10:22:22 AM
Yes, but to say Willy hasn't been scoring because of "bad luck" is disingenuous.

No, it emphatically isn't. You're free to agree or disagree all you want based on how people are defining good vs. bad play but the people who are putting forth the argument that Nylander's play has been mostly good even though he hasn't hit the score sheet are doing so genuinely(I can't see into everyone's hearts but you'd at least have to come up with a reason as to why anyone would be motivated to say Nylander's play has been good despite thinking it hasn't before saying that's what they're doing).
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 10:23:13 AM
Question, who gets to decide what a scoring chance is? Is it the same guy who decides what a hit is?

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/glossary.php?lines

Quote
Scoring Chances - a scoring chance, as originally defined by War-on-Ice.
Each shot attempt (Corsi) taken in the offensive zone is assigned a value based on the area of the zone in which it was recorded. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.

(https://www.naturalstattrick.com/images/danger-zones.png)

Attempts from the yellow areas are assigned a value of 1, attempts from the red areas are assigned a value of 2, and attempts in the green area are assigned a value of 3.

Add 1 to this value if the attempt is considered a rush shot or a rebound. A rebound is any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between. A rush shot is any attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without a stoppage in play in between (originally defined by David Johnson on the now-offline Hockey Analysis, and modified to 4 seconds by War-on-Ice).

Decrease this value by 1 if it was a blocked shot.

Any attempt with a score of 2 or higher is considered a scoring chance.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 25, 2019, 10:47:23 AM
Nylander has a 56% CF this season. If that's time playing like crap then the rest of the league should be very worried once he's playing at his best.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on January 25, 2019, 10:51:17 AM
Nylander has a 56% CF this season. If that's time playing like crap then the rest of the league should be very worried once he's playing at his best.
Not terrible but not at Marner's level either.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: bustaheims on January 25, 2019, 10:56:32 AM
Nylander has a 56% CF this season. If that's time playing like crap then the rest of the league should be very worried once he's playing at his best.
Not terrible but not at Marner's level either.

NHL.com has Nylander at 54.9% and Marner at 50.7%. So, yeah, not at Marner's level...
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 25, 2019, 10:59:19 AM
Question, who gets to decide what a scoring chance is? Is it the same guy who decides what a hit is?

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/glossary.php?lines

Quote
Scoring Chances - a scoring chance, as originally defined by War-on-Ice.
Each shot attempt (Corsi) taken in the offensive zone is assigned a value based on the area of the zone in which it was recorded. Attempts made from the attacking team's neutral or defensive zones are excluded.

(https://www.naturalstattrick.com/images/danger-zones.png)

Attempts from the yellow areas are assigned a value of 1, attempts from the red areas are assigned a value of 2, and attempts in the green area are assigned a value of 3.

Add 1 to this value if the attempt is considered a rush shot or a rebound. A rebound is any attempt made within 3 seconds of another blocked, missed or saved attempt without a stoppage in play in between. A rush shot is any attempt within 4 seconds of any event in the neutral or defensive zone without a stoppage in play in between (originally defined by David Johnson on the now-offline Hockey Analysis, and modified to 4 seconds by War-on-Ice).

Decrease this value by 1 if it was a blocked shot.

Any attempt with a score of 2 or higher is considered a scoring chance.

Ok, thanks for this.


What does this mean:

Mitch Marner has 14 individual high danger scoring chances (which is a scoring chance with a point value of 3 or higher)  and 11 goals since Willy has been back.

Willy Nylander has 20 iHDSC and 1 goal.


At what point is it bad luck and when is it the player not  being good enough to capitalize on his opportunities?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 11:02:19 AM
Marner's quality of competition is higher, but his quality of teammate is also much higher.

Nylander rolling over 3rd and 4th lines is only natural, and using him and Kadri like a more effective/responsible Bozak-JvR is what makes the Leafs depth so scary since Tavares + Matthews can usually saw off, or go a bit over their top-6 match ups.

If Nylander were in the top six, they might get a slight edge once he fully gets going alongside Matthews, but I don't think Kadri-Kapanen is going to light up bottom-6s as well. Either way, the team has options with its plug and play wingers, at least on the right. The left wing is in tough with Johnsson out.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on January 25, 2019, 11:08:50 AM
Nylander has a 56% CF this season. If that's time playing like crap then the rest of the league should be very worried once he's playing at his best.
Not terrible but not at Marner's level either.

NHL.com has Nylander at 54.9% and Marner at 50.7%. So, yeah, not at Marner's level...
Yup, Nylander's been as good as Marner since his return... in fact better. Totally disagree.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 11:16:13 AM
What does this mean:

Mitch Marner has 14 individual high danger scoring chances (which is a scoring chance with a point value of 3 or higher)  and 11 goals since Willy has been back.

Willy Nylander has 20 iHDSC and 1 goal.

At what point is it bad luck and when is it the player not  being good enough to capitalize on his opportunities?

Both Marner and Nylander's current 'luck' (good and bad) are unsustainable. Marner isn't a 20+% SH% player; Matthews is around 18% for reference (and even he has been stuck around 3% since Dec) and I think it's pretty easy to agree that Marner is not as good a shooter as Matthews. Both Nylander and Marner are historically (in their short NHL track of results) around 10% shooters. So one being at 20+ and the other being at 2ish are obviously outliers.

High danger numbers are also notoriously spiky, in that there are only a handful of high danger plays per game, and so luck has an inordinate influence on those focused numbers even over the course of a season.

The point of looking at these underlying numbers is to paint a larger picture of what's happening on the ice when these players are interacting with the play, as a way to describe past play (with the luck semi-filtered out) and to estimate future performance. If we only look at the point production for any subset of time that is one season or less, you might get a skewed result affecting a serious decision (see David Clarkson).
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 25, 2019, 11:17:19 AM
Marner's quality of competition is higher, but his quality of teammate is also much higher.

Nylander rolling over 3rd and 4th lines is only natural, and using him and Kadri like a more effective/responsible Bozak-JvR is what makes the Leafs depth so scary since Tavares + Matthews can usually saw off, or go a bit over their top-6 match ups.

If Nylander were in the top six, they might get a slight edge once he fully gets going alongside Matthews, but I don't think Kadri-Kapanen is going to light up bottom-6s as well. Either way, the team has options with its plug and play wingers, at least on the right. The left wing is in tough with Johnsson out.

Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 11:28:13 AM
Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?

Where are these numbers coming from?

This is NaturalStatTrick's 5v5 individual rates for Leaf forwards sorted in Descending order of individual scoring chances for per 60 minutes (iSCF/60):

PlayerGPSH%iCF/60iFF/60iSCF/60iHDCF/60
Auston Matthews3515.0717.6613.3111.824.6
John Tavares4919.4916.513.0511.545.89
William Nylander213.4515.9511.9610.474.74
Mitchell Marner4914.1214.6410.199.512.57
Kasperi Kapanen4912.7915.0511.619.484.55
Nazem Kadri496.7416.6612.959.143.52
Zach Hyman394.7611.369.628.695.68
Andreas Johnsson4316.0711.969.827.433.53
Patrick Marleau4911.5910.468.767.063.31
Frederik Gauthier407.699.556.827.023.31
Tyler Ennis332011.9110.186.933.9
Connor Brown494.659.738.426.233.61
Par Lindholm492.2212.7810.285.512.76
Trevor Moore7509.496.785.421.36
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 25, 2019, 11:28:50 AM
Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

What are these stats from? Since Nylander's signing he's 6th among forwards in shots/60 at 5-on-5, Gauthier is 12th. In individual shot attempts Nylander's 5th, Gauthier's 12th. In scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances Nylander's 4th, Gauthier's 10th.

edit: mr. fancy pants herman had to break this down more thoroughly than I did
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 25, 2019, 11:29:37 AM
At what point is it bad luck and when is it the player not  being good enough to capitalize on his opportunities?

Are you seriously suggesting that the issue right now is that despite what we saw from Nylander over his first two seasons he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 25, 2019, 11:36:12 AM
Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?

Where are these numbers coming from?

This is NaturalStatTrick's 5v5 individual rates for Leaf forwards sorted in Descending order of individual scoring chances for per 60 minutes (iSCF/60):

PlayerGPSH%iCF/60iFF/60iSCF/60iHDCF/60
Auston Matthews3515.0717.6613.3111.824.6
John Tavares4919.4916.513.0511.545.89
William Nylander213.4515.9511.9610.474.74
Mitchell Marner4914.1214.6410.199.512.57
Kasperi Kapanen4912.7915.0511.619.484.55
Nazem Kadri496.7416.6612.959.143.52
Zach Hyman394.7611.369.628.695.68
Andreas Johnsson4316.0711.969.827.433.53
Patrick Marleau4911.5910.468.767.063.31
Frederik Gauthier407.699.556.827.023.31
Tyler Ennis332011.9110.186.933.9
Connor Brown494.659.738.426.233.61
Par Lindholm492.2212.7810.285.512.76
Trevor Moore7509.496.785.421.36

Sorry, I was using last 21 games, since Willy's been back.

Edit: Also I miscalculated. FG is at 0.12 not 0.16 iSC/minute.  ;D
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 25, 2019, 11:41:40 AM
At what point is it bad luck and when is it the player not  being good enough to capitalize on his opportunities?

Are you seriously suggesting that the issue right now is that despite what we saw from Nylander over his first two seasons he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity?

No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 11:45:39 AM
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Not sure what else to tell you because I don't fully understand what you mean 'not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity' because he's clearly good enough to be getting the puck into those aforementioned positions to generate really good opportunities better than Leafs not named Tavares and Matthews, while trying to catch up to mid-season form from having 2 months off.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 25, 2019, 11:49:25 AM
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Ok, and that's where the numbers suggest a different story. Provided we all agree he's got a certain baseline of talent where he should be able to convert on chances and the numbers show he's generating chances(which should answer any charges of, say, a lack of effort) then what would explain the lack of scoring other than bad luck?

If the effort and talent is there then what can anyone, him or the coaching staff, do differently to get a different outcome? How does he "play better"?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on January 25, 2019, 11:50:39 AM
Anyway, I think we all know Nylander will start to produce. He could have a game like Kadri just did and then overnight things look a lot more normalized.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 25, 2019, 11:50:41 AM
Sorry, I was using last 21 games, since Willy's been back.

Edit: Also I miscalculated. FG is at 0.12 not 0.16 iSC/minute.  ;D

Hockey stats typically aren't measured on a per minute basis. It just narrows everything down to too small of a number. Sites like NST give you the option of looking at rate stats per 60 minutes, which has generally becoming the standard for that sort of thing. And using that it shows a pretty wide margin between Nylander and Gauthier in pretty much all shot/scoring chances categories.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on January 25, 2019, 12:03:07 PM
Marner's quality of competition is higher, but his quality of teammate is also much higher.

Nylander rolling over 3rd and 4th lines is only natural, and using him and Kadri like a more effective/responsible Bozak-JvR is what makes the Leafs depth so scary since Tavares + Matthews can usually saw off, or go a bit over their top-6 match ups.

If Nylander were in the top six, they might get a slight edge once he fully gets going alongside Matthews, but I don't think Kadri-Kapanen is going to light up bottom-6s as well. Either way, the team has options with its plug and play wingers, at least on the right. The left wing is in tough with Johnsson out.

Ok, what do you make of this:

Freddie Gauthier is creating scoring chances at about the same rate per minute as Willy. (FG 0.16/minute - WN - 0.17/minute)

Freddie is scoring at a much higher rate than Willy per minute (FG 0.017 - WN 0.004)

Does that put any of this into perspective?
Yes, on his next contract he will become the highest paid GOAT in the world.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 12:03:31 PM
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Ok, and that's where the numbers suggest a different story. Provided we all agree he's got a certain baseline of talent where he should be able to convert on chances and the numbers show he's generating chances(which should answer any charges of, say, a lack of effort) then what would explain the lack of scoring other than bad luck?

If the effort and talent is there then what can anyone, him or the coaching staff, do differently to get a different outcome? How does he "play better"?

I think what a lot of people have hang ups about Nylander is that he Ďlooksí casual in his general play.

If you iso-watch him though, some of that casualness is because of how easy the basic fundamentals of the game are for him, and some of it is, yes, because he chose the easier route, and other times itís because he already got the job done easily and is off to offense and never had to do any apparent spade work (Hyman).
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 25, 2019, 12:16:26 PM
I think what a lot of people have hang ups about Nylander is that he Ďlooksí casual in his general play.

If you iso-watch him though, some of that casualness is because of how easy the basic fundamentals of the game are for him, and some of it is, yes, because he chose the easier route, and other times itís because he already got the job done easily and is off to offense and never had to do any apparent spade work (Hyman).

Maybe. But not especially physical players with offensive talent always get dogged as lazy, right up to and including Mario Lemieux.

I think the bigger issue here is people who thought Nylander would get less than he did trying to retroactively confirm their beliefs that he wasn't as good a player as his salary demands indicated.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 25, 2019, 12:18:08 PM
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Not sure what else to tell you because I don't fully understand what you mean 'not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity' because he's clearly good enough to be getting the puck into those aforementioned positions to generate really good opportunities better than Leafs not named Tavares and Matthews, while trying to catch up to mid-season form from having 2 months off.

I'd think the timing, accuracy, decision making of where to place his shot isn't up to snuff yet. Maybe it's physical, maybe it's mental. I just think it's too much of a disparity between opportunity and results to just say bad luck.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 12:23:15 PM
It's taking awhile but fluency in these contextual stats is starting to creep into broadcasts and interview responses from the coach and (especially our) GM.

When Babcock talks about Scoring Chances, I don't think he is referring to the traditional scoring chance defined by Roger Neilson (https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/roger-neilson-and-the-history-and-importance-of-advanced-stats-in-the-nhl) or even the one defined by War-on-Ice as linked in NaturalStatTrick's glossary upthread, but it is a similar concept of contextualizing shot quality (like Expected Goals (http://moneypuck.com/about.htm)).

There are many ingredients and variations that go into generating a goal, and each method is just trying to find a uniform way of quantifying it. The NHL started with just counting goals alone, and then added assists, second assists, and then plus/minus (which while flawed, had the right intentions). Analytics is just the recognition that there are many repeatable situations in which hockey goals are scored and wants to dive into which cuts of data will consistently lead to winning.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 12:24:43 PM
I think what a lot of people have hang ups about Nylander is that he Ďlooksí casual in his general play.

If you iso-watch him though, some of that casualness is because of how easy the basic fundamentals of the game are for him, and some of it is, yes, because he chose the easier route, and other times itís because he already got the job done easily and is off to offense and never had to do any apparent spade work (Hyman).

Maybe. But not especially physical players with offensive talent always get dogged as lazy, right up to and including Mario Lemieux.

I think the bigger issue here is people who thought Nylander would get less than he did trying to retroactively confirm their beliefs that he wasn't as good a player as his salary demands indicated.

That's very likely an aspect of the situation too. A lot of hockey fans grew up in the era of the 'blue collar' hockey player laying his own personal wellbeing on the line for the success of the team, which leads to some interesting moralizations of the sport as well.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 25, 2019, 12:30:27 PM
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Ok, and that's where the numbers suggest a different story. Provided we all agree he's got a certain baseline of talent where he should be able to convert on chances and the numbers show he's generating chances(which should answer any charges of, say, a lack of effort) then what would explain the lack of scoring other than bad luck?

If the effort and talent is there then what can anyone, him or the coaching staff, do differently to get a different outcome? How does he "play better"?

I really wish I could see video of the scoring chances. Maybe it'd make sense why he's not finishing. I can't say anything other than he's had the opportunity but can't finish.


Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 12:32:41 PM
I'd think the timing, accuracy, decision making of where to place his shot isn't up to snuff yet. Maybe it's physical, maybe it's mental. I just think it's too much of a disparity between opportunity and results to just say bad luck.

There's probably something to all that in the first two months of a player's return to the ice after months of inactivity. Matthews' shooting is way down since his shoulder injury.

At the same time, it's hard to see his (and Matthews') previous performance and truly believe that Nylander has completely lost his hockey abilities for the rest of his career. I'm exaggerating a bit, but that's how a lot of Nylander-complaints sound to me.

What these deeper numbers have shown repeatedly over the years and on teams other than the Leafs is that the performance numbers will generally rebound back to a player's (and team's) true performance level given enough time. It took Kadri 2/3rds of the 2015-16 season to bounce out of shooting ~2%. We reaped a nice team-friendly deal out of it. It took half a season for Mitch Marner to come out of his scoring funk, and look at him now.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on January 25, 2019, 12:47:04 PM
An additional thing to add re: Nylander's production

It's about more than just his own shot. Nylander is a playmaker and elite finesse cycle player, and his linemates put up diddly squat on the chances he set up for them, until the Capitals game.

Take a look at where most of our shots come from when Nylander is on the ice:
(https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1819/TOR/nylanwi96/)

His line is getting some good chances in the slot and left circle, and generally those passes are coming from the RW.

(https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1819/TOR/nylanwi96/)
Everyone who plays with him gets more chances on offense than they have to play defense (except for Kadri, early on).
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on January 25, 2019, 12:48:38 PM
Yeah, I don't think anyone would object to the idea that in addition to bad luck(or whatever) that there's maybe a bit of rust that's compounding the problem. I think the real difference here though is that a lot of people are looking at the chance generating numbers not so much as signs that Nylander is "playing well" as evidence that whatever is going wrong right now, whatever you want to attribute it to, should resolve itself. If Nylander's underlying numbers were bad, there'd be more concern but absent that I don't think there's anything particularly productive about arguing the difference between "good" and "bad" in relation to his play.

Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on January 25, 2019, 12:52:50 PM
I'd think the timing, accuracy, decision making of where to place his shot isn't up to snuff yet. Maybe it's physical, maybe it's mental. I just think it's too much of a disparity between opportunity and results to just say bad luck.

There's probably something to all that in the first two months of a player's return to the ice after months of inactivity. Matthews' shooting is way down since his shoulder injury.

At the same time, it's hard to see his (and Matthews') previous performance and truly believe that Nylander has completely lost his hockey abilities for the rest of his career. I'm exaggerating a bit, but that's how a lot of Nylander-complaints sound to me.

What these deeper numbers have shown repeatedly over the years and on teams other than the Leafs is that the performance numbers will generally rebound back to a player's (and team's) true performance level given enough time. It took Kadri 2/3rds of the 2015-16 season to bounce out of shooting ~2%. We reaped a nice team-friendly deal out of it. It took half a season for Mitch Marner to come out of his scoring funk, and look at him now.

Oh no, I'm not suggesting that. I think Willy is out of it. His second half should be back to career norms.

19 of Willy's 45 iSCF came during a 5 game stretch between December 28th - January 7th. 26 iSCF in his other 16 games so consistency seems to be an issue. Doesn't help that Babs keeps throwing him up and down the lineup.
 
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Rob on January 25, 2019, 12:56:18 PM
Remember when Sundin was criticised for his skating and work ethic?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on January 25, 2019, 01:19:47 PM
Remember when Sundin was criticised for his skating and work ethic?
Stuck on cruise control, lazy bugger.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on January 25, 2019, 01:44:42 PM
No, what I'm saying is so far this season he's simply not good enough to score at a consistent rate given the opportunity.

Ok, and that's where the numbers suggest a different story. Provided we all agree he's got a certain baseline of talent where he should be able to convert on chances and the numbers show he's generating chances(which should answer any charges of, say, a lack of effort) then what would explain the lack of scoring other than bad luck?

If the effort and talent is there then what can anyone, him or the coaching staff, do differently to get a different outcome? How does he "play better"?

I really wish I could see video of the scoring chances. Maybe it'd make sense why he's not finishing. I can't say anything other than he's had the opportunity but can't finish.

Matthews & Kadri prior to last game, had trouble finishing too. I don't think anyone would label them as what Nylander consistently gets labeled. My take is, basically, shit happens in small samples.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on January 25, 2019, 02:11:39 PM
Remember when Sundin was criticised for his skating and work ethic?
Yup and how sad was that? He was skating slow because he was carrying the opposition on his back most nights. Remember the good ole days of clutching and grabbing? Could you imagine Sundin with this group and playing in this era where the clutching and grabbing are all but gone?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on February 13, 2019, 11:41:47 AM

I'm actually a bit surprised by the proportion of shots attempts Nylander has taken that actually hit the net being higher than I expected. This doesn't account for blocked shots though.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/bill.comeau#!/vizhome/ShotHeatMaps/Dashboard1

This is pretty fun to play with.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Goaliedave31 on February 13, 2019, 12:58:30 PM
Remember when Sundin was criticised for his skating and work ethic?
Yup and how sad was that? He was skating slow because he was carrying the opposition on his back most nights. Remember the good ole days of clutching and grabbing? Could you imagine Sundin with this group and playing in this era where the clutching and grabbing are all but gone?
If Sundin was playing today with wingers like Marner and Nylander, he'd be top 5 in scoring for sure.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on February 13, 2019, 01:17:50 PM
Ya the best winger he ever had was a slightly used up Mogilny
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on February 13, 2019, 01:19:01 PM
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Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on February 13, 2019, 01:34:29 PM
Ya the best winger he ever had was a slightly used up Mogilny
Almo and Roberts were fantastic linemates.

The Hogland's, Modin's, and Jonhson's not so much.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on February 13, 2019, 01:50:12 PM
Ya the best winger he ever had was a slightly used up Mogilny
Almo and Roberts were fantastic linemates.

The Hogland's, Modin's, and Jonhson's not so much.
They were def good but certainly not in their prime when Sundin played with them.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on February 13, 2019, 03:17:57 PM

  I was pretty sure Nylander hadn't forgot how the game was played. It just took a lot longer for him to get back to where he needs to be than everyone expected it would.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Deebo on February 13, 2019, 04:16:16 PM
Ya the best winger he ever had was a slightly used up Mogilny
Almo and Roberts were fantastic linemates.

The Hogland's, Modin's, and Jonhson's not so much.
They were def good but certainly not in their prime when Sundin played with them.

I don't remember Sundin and Mogilny playing on the same line very often.

I remember Quinn playing them on the PK together at times in the playoffs though
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on February 13, 2019, 05:51:08 PM
Ya the best winger he ever had was a slightly used up Mogilny
Almo and Roberts were fantastic linemates.

The Hogland's, Modin's, and Jonhson's not so much.
They were def good but certainly not in their prime when Sundin played with them.

I don't remember Sundin and Mogilny playing on the same line very often.

I remember Quinn playing them on the PK together at times in the playoffs though
They didn't. And yes I remember that as well.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 13, 2019, 05:54:10 PM
I don't remember Sundin and Mogilny playing on the same line very often.

I remember Quinn playing them on the PK together at times in the playoffs though
They didn't. And yes I remember that as well.

I'm still somewhat upset the MAD line was ever broken up.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on February 13, 2019, 06:04:47 PM
Ya the best winger he ever had was a slightly used up Mogilny
Almo and Roberts were fantastic linemates.

The Hogland's, Modin's, and Jonhson's not so much.
They were def good but certainly not in their prime when Sundin played with them.

I don't remember Sundin and Mogilny playing on the same line very often.

I remember Quinn playing them on the PK together at times in the playoffs though
They didn't. And yes I remember that as well.
The Mogilny was indeed Sundin's right winger in the day before his hip ended his career. Wish we had him for a few years prior when he was a Devil. I also loved Elias from those Devil teams.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on February 13, 2019, 06:18:40 PM
I'm still somewhat upset the MAD line was ever broken up.
Refresher please...
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 13, 2019, 06:29:08 PM
I'm still somewhat upset the MAD line was ever broken up.
Refresher please...

Quinn started a season with Tucker-Sundin-Mogilny (Mats, Alexander, Darcy) and they scored about a bazillion points but they were also a trainwreck defensively so he split them up pretty quickly. That was one of the few times I remember Mogilny playing with Sundin at 5-on-5.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on February 13, 2019, 09:16:30 PM
I'm still somewhat upset the MAD line was ever broken up.
Refresher please...

Quinn started a season with Tucker-Sundin-Mogilny (Mats, Alexander, Darcy) and they scored about a bazillion points but they were also a trainwreck defensively so he split them up pretty quickly. That was one of the few times I remember Mogilny playing with Sundin at 5-on-5.
Thx. Didn't remember Tucker being there with them.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on February 14, 2019, 10:56:31 AM
I guess its my memory, as in my minds eye, I seem to remember Mog playing with the sun god all the time.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on February 14, 2019, 08:54:33 PM
I'm still somewhat upset the MAD line was ever broken up.
Refresher please...

Quinn started a season with Tucker-Sundin-Mogilny (Mats, Alexander, Darcy) and they scored about a bazillion points but they were also a trainwreck defensively so he split them up pretty quickly. That was one of the few times I remember Mogilny playing with Sundin at 5-on-5.
Thx. Didn't remember Tucker being there with them.
Off wing one timers all day long.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Joe S. on February 14, 2019, 10:40:43 PM
I guess its my memory, as in my minds eye, I seem to remember Mog playing with the sun god all the time.

Nope.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: sickbeast on February 15, 2019, 02:45:00 PM
Nylander has finally come into form. Heís playing great. He might have some extra gas left in the tank for the playoffs. I really like his play lately. And the third line might be a better spot for him. Weaker opposition.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on February 16, 2019, 10:30:31 AM
I guess its my memory, as in my minds eye, I seem to remember Mog playing with the sun god all the time.

Nope.
So who centred Mogilny more than Sungodin
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Nik Bethune on February 16, 2019, 10:34:43 AM
So who centred Mogilny more than Sungodin

Reichel.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on February 16, 2019, 10:36:39 AM
Oh yes Robert, I remember him well.............not ;)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on February 20, 2019, 12:15:31 PM

Nylander likes blue collars just fine:
(https://78.media.tumblr.com/7923040550e1aa433b5e75bc1971a765/tumblr_owv7rvm3oC1vz9empo2_500.gif)
(https://em.wattpad.com/cc39e069378675f3e112323c8a4b8cfdf42c6c1c/68747470733a2f2f73332e616d617a6f6e6177732e636f6d2f776174747061642d6d656469612d736572766963652f53746f7279496d6167652f4f373933556a4f5f59744b3250513d3d2d3431353139353731372e313463306333383830363866653536643534373235363534393634372e676966?s=fit&w=720&h=720)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on February 20, 2019, 07:52:11 PM

Nylander likes blue collars just fine:
(https://78.media.tumblr.com/7923040550e1aa433b5e75bc1971a765/tumblr_owv7rvm3oC1vz9empo2_500.gif)
(https://em.wattpad.com/cc39e069378675f3e112323c8a4b8cfdf42c6c1c/68747470733a2f2f73332e616d617a6f6e6177732e636f6d2f776174747061642d6d656469612d736572766963652f53746f7279496d6167652f4f373933556a4f5f59744b3250513d3d2d3431353139353731372e313463306333383830363866653536643534373235363534393634372e676966?s=fit&w=720&h=720)
Hey Burkie, that's not what they were saying about Nylander in the Athletic today, that he looked great at Centre last night.  Hope Kadri is OK but seeing Willie there for a few games won't hurt
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on February 22, 2019, 07:23:24 AM
Nylander heating up as Marner inevitably cools down will keep the Leafs going.

Good thing we have multiple top-line wingers.

Marner is not yet quite as good as his first three months suggest and is better than these last two months have been. He has had up and down stretches every year of his very young career thus far, but we know he is money in the bank (and on the cap).

Once the pucks start really going in, Nylander will be more widely recognized as the bargain contract.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on February 22, 2019, 09:32:35 AM
Nylander heating up as Marner inevitably cools down will keep the Leafs going.

Good thing we have multiple top-line wingers.

Marner is not yet quite as good as his first three months suggest and is better than these last two months have been. He has had up and down stretches every year of his very young career thus far, but we know he is money in the bank (and on the cap).

Once the pucks start really going in, Nylander will be more widely recognized as the bargain contract.

Or you know, paid accordingly.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on February 28, 2019, 12:45:24 AM
Invalid Tweet ID
To everyone who dragged Nylander as overpaid blah blah 7th best player on the team and wow Kapanen is better so letís trade him for a 4RD:
(https://media.giphy.com/media/26EbUDoz9SpVBTG2A/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: OldTimeHockey on February 28, 2019, 04:50:00 AM
Nylander does seem to have his jump back and has for a while. Kid's gotta hit the net, but that's about all there is to complain about.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on February 28, 2019, 10:16:36 AM
Nylander does seem to have his jump back and has for a while. Kid's gotta hit the net, but that's about all there is to complain about.

He's so ridiculously good at lugging the puck and getting into the zone. He's so slick it reminds me a bit of Kaberle.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on February 28, 2019, 11:41:49 AM
He's also great on the point as a right-handed shot.



..... wait a minute....
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on February 28, 2019, 03:11:45 PM
In two years his deal will look like a steal.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cap44 on March 13, 2019, 06:36:46 PM
they need to unload this albatross of a contract ASAP!! This has gotta go down as one of the worst deals ever. $6.9 for a 20 goal scorer, what are they thinking. He has almost identical numbers as Tyler Ennis who comes in at $650,000.

Ennis    Games     Goals   Assists    +/-     cost     
              47          12          5        -3       $650,000
Nylander 39           5           12      -3       $6.9 per year
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on March 13, 2019, 06:39:01 PM
they need to unload this albatross of a contract ASAP!! This has gotta go down as one of the worst deals ever. $6.9 for a 20 goal scorer, what are they thinking. He has almost identical numbers as Tyler Ennis who comes in at $650,000.

Ennis    Games     Goals   Assists    +/-     cost     
              47          12          5        -3       $650,000
Nylander 39           5           12      -3       $6.9 per year
Step back from the ledge.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: freer on March 13, 2019, 06:44:07 PM
they need to unload this albatross of a contract ASAP!! This has gotta go down as one of the worst deals ever. $6.9 for a 20 goal scorer, what are they thinking. He has almost identical numbers as Tyler Ennis who comes in at $650,000.

Ennis    Games     Goals   Assists    +/-     cost     
              47          12          5        -3       $650,000
Nylander 39           5           12      -3       $6.9 per year
Step back from the ledge.
LOL, I myself think Nylander is over paid. But he is a good top six player. Ennis is not a top six player on any team.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on March 13, 2019, 06:53:42 PM
Step back from the ledge.

I don't think it's unfair to be critical of his game this season so far, and it's funny to me to see the length to which people stat-mine to try to prove otherwise. I was ridiculed with my opinion that his stats were substantially overstated last year as a result of playing with Matthews, and he's done nothing this year but prove my point.

That said, Dubas went into this signing playing the long game, and like him, I'd be far more willing to bet he'll be worth his contract over the duration rather than falling short.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on March 13, 2019, 07:10:25 PM
This contract will look like a steal within 1-2 years.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cap44 on March 13, 2019, 07:21:59 PM
Step back from the ledge.

I don't think it's unfair to be critical of his game this season so far, and it's funny to me to see the length to which people stat-mine to try to prove otherwise. I was ridiculed with my opinion that his stats were substantially overstated last year as a result of playing with Matthews, and he's done nothing this year but prove my point.

my point exactly. Ennis is not a top six and I am struggling to Nylander as one as well. Certainly his performance indicates to me that he is not!

That said, Dubas went into this signing playing the long game, and like him, I'd be far more willing to bet he'll be worth his contract over the duration rather than falling short.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on March 14, 2019, 10:25:19 AM
This contract will look like a steal within 1-2 years.

I'm one of the biggest Nylander fans on this board, but I don't think it'll ever look like a steal. I think it'll look completely appropriate, and that's ok.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: RedLeaf on March 14, 2019, 10:15:40 PM
This contract will look like a steal within 1-2 years.

I'm one of the biggest Nylander fans on this board, but I don't think it'll ever look like a steal. I think it'll look completely appropriate, and that's ok.

Could be a steal alright...for my Nylander maybe.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on March 14, 2019, 11:07:24 PM
Step back from the ledge.

I don't think it's unfair to be critical of his game this season so far, and it's funny to me to see the length to which people stat-mine to try to prove otherwise. I was ridiculed with my opinion that his stats were substantially overstated last year as a result of playing with Matthews, and he's done nothing this year but prove my point.

That said, Dubas went into this signing playing the long game, and like him, I'd be far more willing to bet he'll be worth his contract over the duration rather than falling short.
There's a difference between thinking he wasn't ready out of the gate and has room to improve and thinking we need to get out of an albatross of a contract asap.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bullfrog on March 15, 2019, 08:47:29 AM
This contract will look like a steal within 1-2 years.

I'm one of the biggest Nylander fans on this board, but I don't think it'll ever look like a steal. I think it'll look completely appropriate, and that's ok.

Could be a steal alright...for my Nylander maybe.

In the first season at least, he's getting paid more than $8 million. That's not bad for 25ish points.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Frycer14 on March 15, 2019, 10:04:50 AM
This contract will look like a steal within 1-2 years.

I'm one of the biggest Nylander fans on this board, but I don't think it'll ever look like a steal. I think it'll look completely appropriate, and that's ok.

Could be a steal alright...for my Nylander maybe.

In the first season at least, he's getting paid more than $8 million. That's not bad for 25ish points.

Heh, true enough, but no one should be too bothered about the structure - MLSE isn't going to declare bankruptcy any time soon.

What needs to happen is to abandon the idea (for the time being, at least), that Nylander is going to be a center, or 3rd line winger, and drive a line. Put him back with Matthews and Hyman. His skills complement the kind of game Matthews' plays, far more so than Kapanen and Johnsson - Nylander should be the winger version of Backstrom to Matthew's Ovechkin.
If it takes a month to get comfortable again, so be it. It's hard to find chemistry sometimes for linemates of elite players - they had something that worked for Matthews, and they paid 7M a year on the cap to keep it. So why deviate when it's clearly not working?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: L K on March 15, 2019, 11:16:12 AM
This contract will look like a steal within 1-2 years.

I'm one of the biggest Nylander fans on this board, but I don't think it'll ever look like a steal. I think it'll look completely appropriate, and that's ok.

Could be a steal alright...for my Nylander maybe.

In the first season at least, he's getting paid more than $8 million. That's not bad for 25ish points.

Heh, true enough, but no one should be too bothered about the structure - MLSE isn't going to declare bankruptcy any time soon.

What needs to happen is to abandon the idea (for the time being, at least), that Nylander is going to be a center, or 3rd line winger, and drive a line. Put him back with Matthews and Hyman. His skills complement the kind of game Matthews' plays, far more so than Kapanen and Johnsson - Nylander should be the winger version of Backstrom to Matthew's Ovechkin.
If it takes a month to get comfortable again, so be it. It's hard to find chemistry sometimes for linemates of elite players - they had something that worked for Matthews, and they paid 7M a year on the cap to keep it. So why deviate when it's clearly not working?

I don't really think I came away from Nylander's stretch of playing center thinking he wouldn't be good as the 3C on this team.  The problem is Nylander needs a goal scorer on his wing and he was playing with combinations of Marleau/Brown who are not goal scorers. 
Even guys like Johnson and Kapanen, while scoring goals they really aren't set up to finish kind of scorers.  I think Nylander as the center for a guy like Ovechkin would be a good line.  The Leafs just aren't going to have the depth to do that. 

He's better playing on the wing with Matthews or Tavares.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on March 15, 2019, 11:56:45 AM
From Siegels article in the Athletic today about the reunification of Nylander with Matthews is that it looks like it is here to stay. Matthews was basically saying he loves having Nylander on his wing, that they feed off each other. Babs was saying Nylander was the catalyst in the comeback attempt, so I stick by steal.
Just hope they keep Johnsson on the LW clearly makes this line much more dynamic than Hyman in that spot.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on March 15, 2019, 02:48:50 PM
From the aforementioned Siegel article (https://theathletic.com/868852/2019/03/14/matthews-and-nylander-are-tag-team-partners-again-which-is-a-big-deal-for-the-leafs/):

Matthews on comparing Mathew Tkachuk to William Nylander and expressing his admiration for the performance of the posterior of his partner:
Quote
[Tkachuk]ís not like Willy where heís flying around and cutting through edges and stuff, but heís got his ass out and heís just protecting the puck and itís hard to take off of him. And then itís kind of the same thing, youíre getting in an open position and heís finding you the puck.Ē
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on March 16, 2019, 09:38:13 AM
I feel... conflicted...

That makes more sensehahahahaha

Dude has chemistry with everyone
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: disco on March 16, 2019, 03:08:31 PM
That assist from behind the net with one hand fighting two guys to the front where Auston wasn't even occupying yet was one of the best assists I've ever seen.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on March 18, 2019, 02:16:15 PM
(https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1819/TOR/nylanwi96/)
(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)

2017-18 for reference:
(https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1718/TOR/nylanwi96/)

2016-17 for reference:
(https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/TOR/nylanwi96/)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Dappleganger on March 18, 2019, 02:27:22 PM
(https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1819/TOR/nylanwi96/)
(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)

So Matthews is better without Nylander.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Bender on March 18, 2019, 02:31:47 PM
(https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1819/TOR/nylanwi96/)
(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)(http://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/1061/1924/products/Thinking_Face_Emoji_grande.png?v=1480481060)

So Matthews is better without Nylander.

But isn't Nylander the cause of all the Leafs' problems?
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on March 18, 2019, 03:37:29 PM
Fun thing if you're poking through hockeyviz for Toronto this season, Willy is currently rocking the highest Threat% (https://hockeyviz.com/txt/magnusEV) differential 5v5 for-against. Threat% is a simplified Expected Goals model and is essentially a likelihood of scoring based on shot location. Higher % For = good offense. Higher % Against = bad defense.

(https://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1819/TOR/nylanwi96/)

I did the hard work of grabbing today's %ages from the Leafs forwards' respective 5v5 shot maps and dumping them all into a table and calculating some differentials and relative comps to the team avg. This is a grossly simplified slice and dice and not even remotely statistically rigorous, but still quite telling in a systematic sense. This is sorted by 5v5 For - 5v5 Against as the measure of who generates the most offense while giving up the least.

Player Threat%5v5ForWith5v5ForWithout5v5AgainstWith5v5AgainstWithout5v5 For-Against5v5For With-Without5v5 For rel5v5 Against rel
William Nylander271079201713.83-1.42
Zach Hyman327176152518.838.58
John Tavares306156152416.836.58
Mitch Marner258146111711.835.58
Auston Matthews24916681510.837.58
Andreas Johnsson12134108-1-1.17-4.42
Kasperi Kapanen1911137685.834.58
Nazem Kadri1512108531.831.58
Patrick Marleau1213175-5-1-1.178.58
Connor Brown-418310-7-22-17.17-5.42
Frederik Gauthier-2219-1412-8-41-35.17-22.42
Tyler Ennis-1216-110-11-28-25.17-9.42
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Highlander on March 18, 2019, 07:32:19 PM
I feel... conflicted...

That makes more sensehahahahaha

Dude has chemistry with everyone
Thanks Damian on your back up of my Nylander Steal quote..I will pass on the 500 as planned when we meet for drinks.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on March 24, 2019, 12:49:51 PM

More Nylander fans joining my club
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on March 25, 2019, 09:42:53 AM

Quote
Nylanderís offensive game outside of his shooting is elite. He has the potential to be one of the very best offensive players in the world, given his transition ability and passing. Manual tracking data suggests that Nylander is among the league leaders in creating shots for both himself and teammates, as well as creating zone entries. If he was an average shooter, his 5v5 scoring over the past three years would be similar to Nicklas Backstromís ó another Swedish pass-first player who is the second banana to an elite goal scorer. Backstrom will probably end up in the Hall of Fame. The main thing separating he and Nylanderís 5v5 scoring over the last few years is shooting percentage.

If youíre looking for some indication that Nylanderís shooting is salvageable, the man to look at is Nathan MacKinnon. Through his first four years, MacKinnonís shooting percentage was 8.1%, and there was discussion over why such a canít-miss prospect was not producing the way we would expect. Over the last two, his shooting percentage is 12.4%, and suddenly, MacKinnon is a consensus top-10 forward in the world. Itís also not as if MacKinnonís expected shooting percentage drastically shot upwards either. Itís higher in the last two years than in the previous three, but only by 0.5 percentage points. Furthermore, his expected shooting percentage is lower than Nylanderís has been across his entire career (one of the most annoying myths about Nylander is that heís a perimeter player who takes low percentage shots). Some time in the last few years, whether by a change in his game or random variance, MacKinnon figured out how to shoot, and changed from a frustrating young player with potential to an elite offensive player. Itís not out of the realm of possibility that Nylander can do the same.

Okay, now imagine Nylander with Matthews' curl-and-drag shot.

For what it's worth, Nylander shot over 17% (https://theahl.com/stats/player/5805) (all situations) in his brief couple of seasons with the Marlies.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on March 25, 2019, 03:34:56 PM

Quote
Nylanderís offensive game outside of his shooting is elite. He has the potential to be one of the very best offensive players in the world, given his transition ability and passing. Manual tracking data suggests that Nylander is among the league leaders in creating shots for both himself and teammates, as well as creating zone entries. If he was an average shooter, his 5v5 scoring over the past three years would be similar to Nicklas Backstromís ó another Swedish pass-first player who is the second banana to an elite goal scorer. Backstrom will probably end up in the Hall of Fame. The main thing separating he and Nylanderís 5v5 scoring over the last few years is shooting percentage.

If youíre looking for some indication that Nylanderís shooting is salvageable, the man to look at is Nathan MacKinnon. Through his first four years, MacKinnonís shooting percentage was 8.1%, and there was discussion over why such a canít-miss prospect was not producing the way we would expect. Over the last two, his shooting percentage is 12.4%, and suddenly, MacKinnon is a consensus top-10 forward in the world. Itís also not as if MacKinnonís expected shooting percentage drastically shot upwards either. Itís higher in the last two years than in the previous three, but only by 0.5 percentage points. Furthermore, his expected shooting percentage is lower than Nylanderís has been across his entire career (one of the most annoying myths about Nylander is that heís a perimeter player who takes low percentage shots). Some time in the last few years, whether by a change in his game or random variance, MacKinnon figured out how to shoot, and changed from a frustrating young player with potential to an elite offensive player. Itís not out of the realm of possibility that Nylander can do the same.

Okay, now imagine Nylander with Matthews' curl-and-drag shot.

For what it's worth, Nylander shot over 17% (https://theahl.com/stats/player/5805) (all situations) in his brief couple of seasons with the Marlies.

Sounds like a job for Darryl Belfry this summer.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on April 26, 2019, 11:12:23 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: cabber24 on April 26, 2019, 11:15:06 AM
I think Nylander will easily score 30 goals next year. I am not the least bit worried having him on our roster even at his cap hit.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on April 26, 2019, 11:17:43 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on April 26, 2019, 11:21:35 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.

It sounds like they were being lowballed by nearly 20% the whole offseason and into November. They were looking for assurances that Nylander was considered core, and a coy 5-6M offer with an expected salary cap increase, regardless of the term, isn't quite that.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on April 26, 2019, 11:24:26 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.

It sounds like they were being lowballed by nearly 20% the whole offseason and into November. They were looking for assurances that Nylander was considered core, and a coy 5-6M offer with an expected salary cap increase, regardless of the term, isn't quite that.

Says who that they were offering in the $5M range?  All accounts were Leafs were in the low 6s, something like 6.2-6.5 but Nylander's camp wanted over $8M
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: L K on April 26, 2019, 01:20:56 PM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.

It sounds like they were being lowballed by nearly 20% the whole offseason and into November. They were looking for assurances that Nylander was considered core, and a coy 5-6M offer with an expected salary cap increase, regardless of the term, isn't quite that.

Says who that they were offering in the $5M range?  All accounts were Leafs were in the low 6s, something like 6.2-6.5 but Nylander's camp wanted over $8M

Says who on the Nylander camp wanting 8.  There were no confirmed numbers coming out but the panels pushed that narrative all year.  It's interesting that in a negotiation where no numbers were truly leaking that the high-ball number is taken as true only.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Zee on April 26, 2019, 01:31:20 PM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.

It sounds like they were being lowballed by nearly 20% the whole offseason and into November. They were looking for assurances that Nylander was considered core, and a coy 5-6M offer with an expected salary cap increase, regardless of the term, isn't quite that.

Says who that they were offering in the $5M range?  All accounts were Leafs were in the low 6s, something like 6.2-6.5 but Nylander's camp wanted over $8M

Says who on the Nylander camp wanting 8.  There were no confirmed numbers coming out but the panels pushed that narrative all year.  It's interesting that in a negotiation where no numbers were truly leaking that the high-ball number is taken as true only.

Given that they settled on 6.9 you can assume that is between what both camps were willing to do so the 8 vs. 6 number makes sense and is believable.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2019, 02:22:20 PM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2019/4/26/18517715/william-nylander-kyle-dubas-mike-babcock-exit-interview-toronto-maple-leafs

I'm glad Dubas cleared the air on this. I know he was trying to take the heat for a variety of things that really were other people's responsibility at the end of the season, but this one is accurately on him.

Were Nylander and his agent mute during this entire process?  I think blame lies on both parties.  Had Willy come to a number earlier he would have signed earlier.

It sounds like they were being lowballed by nearly 20% the whole offseason and into November. They were looking for assurances that Nylander was considered core, and a coy 5-6M offer with an expected salary cap increase, regardless of the term, isn't quite that.

Says who that they were offering in the $5M range?  All accounts were Leafs were in the low 6s, something like 6.2-6.5 but Nylander's camp wanted over $8M

Says who on the Nylander camp wanting 8.  There were no confirmed numbers coming out but the panels pushed that narrative all year.  It's interesting that in a negotiation where no numbers were truly leaking that the high-ball number is taken as true only.

Given that they settled on 6.9 you can assume that is between what both camps were willing to do so the 8 vs. 6 number makes sense and is believable.
Dubas took the bullets for a lot of things but this is on both parties here. They both messed up. Willy will be motivated next season to prove himself worthy.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on May 01, 2019, 11:31:52 AM
https://theathletic.com/826406/2019/05/01/william-nylanders-lost-season-the-story-behind-the-negotiations-that-derailed-the-leafs-young-star/

It's his birthday today

Has anyone heard Jonathan Coulton's (of Portal fame) First of May song? Headphones :)
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: LuncheonMeat on May 01, 2019, 12:30:56 PM
https://theathletic.com/826406/2019/05/01/william-nylanders-lost-season-the-story-behind-the-negotiations-that-derailed-the-leafs-young-star/

It's his birthday today


Certainly there's GOT to be a .gif of Nylander blowing out 5 or 6 candles, and then giving up and peeling for the bench.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on May 05, 2019, 02:07:11 PM
Iím wondering if there is something Nylander can do over the summer to improve his scoring potential.  Can he work on hitting the net more?  Can he work on speeding up his release?  Is there something else?

More generally, it would be nice to hear about the kinds of things different leafs (the young ones) might be able to do to give us some further internal growth.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 05, 2019, 02:37:02 PM
Iím wondering if there is something Nylander can do over the summer to improve his scoring potential.  Can he work on hitting the net more?  Can he work on speeding up his release?  Is there something else?

More generally, it would be nice to hear about the kinds of things different leafs (the young ones) might be able to do to give us some further internal growth.
Don't know about all the kids but I'm sure they work with the Leafs development staff. Matthews has reworked his shot after he was drafted and again last summer so I think Willy could do the same.
Title: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on May 05, 2019, 03:41:43 PM
Most of the star players in the league work with strength and conditioning and skills coaches in the off-season.

All players in the organization have full access to the Leafs specific development coaches and guys like Darryl Belfry, Adam Oates and Gary Roberts have extremely lucrative private practices.

If you recall the Matthews drag in stride and release that fooled a bunch of goalies this year was something he specifically worked with Belfry on last summer.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: herman on May 25, 2019, 12:36:40 AM

Hahahaha

Game plan: get Willy the puck, and then wait for a tap in.
Title: Re: Nylander signs 6-year contract
Post by: princedpw on May 25, 2019, 07:50:43 AM

Hahahaha

Game plan: get Willy the puck, and then wait for a tap in.

Seems like a bit of a puck hog.