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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Topic started by: Coco-puffs on June 11, 2018, 04:37:11 PM

Title: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 11, 2018, 04:37:11 PM
https://www.tsn.ca/video/mckenzie-i-get-the-feeling-matthews-marner-want-to-wait-until-next-summer-to-sign~1415103

Well, that won't be great for the cap space picture after the upcoming season.  I can only imagine that, assuming they are both healthy, they will put up numbers that only increase their next contracts.  Don't blame the players for (possibly) wanting to do that, but if it happens it won't be to the benefit of the team long term.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 11, 2018, 04:40:20 PM
https://www.tsn.ca/video/mckenzie-i-get-the-feeling-matthews-marner-want-to-wait-until-next-summer-to-sign~1415103

Well, that won't be great for the cap space picture after the upcoming season.  I can only imagine that, assuming they are both healthy, they will put up numbers that only increase their next contracts.  Don't blame the players for (possibly) wanting to do that, but if it happens it won't be to the benefit of the team long term.

The modern day NHL, ladies and gentlemen. Where you want your players to be good, but not too good.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 11, 2018, 04:56:15 PM
https://www.tsn.ca/video/mckenzie-i-get-the-feeling-matthews-marner-want-to-wait-until-next-summer-to-sign~1415103

Well, that won't be great for the cap space picture after the upcoming season.  I can only imagine that, assuming they are both healthy, they will put up numbers that only increase their next contracts.  Don't blame the players for (possibly) wanting to do that, but if it happens it won't be to the benefit of the team long term.

The modern day NHL, ladies and gentlemen. Where you want your players to be good, but not too good.

No, you want them to be great. You just want to sign them long term before they get there.  In Matthews case, I don't think it makes a huge a difference as it will with Marner.  He might move from Ehlers/Pasternak etc money to Eichel money with a big year next year.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 11, 2018, 05:32:36 PM
No, you want them to be great. You just want to sign them long term before they get there.  In Matthews case, I don't think it makes a huge a difference as it will with Marner.  He might move from Ehlers/Pasternak etc money to Eichel money with a big year next year.

My post was mainly a joke but if you don't think it's ridiculous to have created a pointlessly adversarial system where we should be rooting for the players we like on the teams we root for to lock themselves into long term contracts at below their market value then we look at things very differently.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 12, 2018, 09:43:06 AM
No, you want them to be great. You just want to sign them long term before they get there.  In Matthews case, I don't think it makes a huge a difference as it will with Marner.  He might move from Ehlers/Pasternak etc money to Eichel money with a big year next year.

My post was mainly a joke but if you don't think it's ridiculous to have created a pointlessly adversarial system where we should be rooting for the players we like on the teams we root for to lock themselves into long term contracts at below their market value then we look at things very differently.

From a hockey economics perspective, I agree with your sentiment- a lot of the NHL's stars are underpaid because of the system we have in place.  As for what I want to happen to the team that I root for including the players I root for:  In a hard cap system, you can't afford too many stars if they are all getting paid full market value- even if you don't have dead weight on your cap ledger. 

So, am I hoping that Marner signs a 8 x 7M deal now instead of waiting out this year and possibly getting closer to 9-10M?  Yes.  I'm not going to feel bad that his income is 56M instead of 80M over the next 8 years.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 12, 2018, 09:47:53 AM
Even if he had a PPG-type season, I'd be pretty surprised to see Marner get $9-10mil on his next contract. I think Draisaitl sorta set the ceiling for post-ELC deals for non-franchise players and he's at $8.5mil for 8 years.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 12, 2018, 09:59:41 AM
Even if he had a PPG-type season, I'd be pretty surprised to see Marner get $9-10mil on his next contract. I think Draisaitl sorta set the ceiling for post-ELC deals for non-franchise players and he's at $8.5mil for 8 years.

If Marner was signing in the same season, with the same CAP limit, then yes you can say he can't argue for more than Draisatl.  However, Marner's deal will start 2 seasons later and the cap will have gone up approximately 8-10% in that time.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Peter D. on June 12, 2018, 10:05:35 AM
I'm hopeful, but also expect from management, that the big three cost no more than $25 million combined. 

10 for Matthews, 8 for Marner, 7 for Nylander, or any combination thereof.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 12, 2018, 10:10:00 AM
I'm hopeful, but also expect from management, that the big three cost no more than $25 million combined. 

10 for Matthews, 8 for Marner, 7 for Nylander, or any combination thereof.

Yeah, that's roughly what I'm thinking too. 10.5 for Matthews, 7.5-8mil for Marner, 6.5-7 for Nylander.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 12, 2018, 10:14:28 AM
If Marner was signing in the same season, with the same CAP limit, then yes you can say he can't argue for more than Draisatl.  However, Marner's deal will start 2 seasons later and the cap will have gone up approximately 8-10% in that time.

I mean McKenzie made a similar argument to this too so I'm not saying you're wrong, but I just don't get this kind of thinking. Agents and teams know the cap rises every single year. It's not a surprise. So Draisatl's agent knew when he negotiated that deal that the percentage of the cap it took in the first year was going to be vastly different than what it was in the 3rd or 5th or 8th year. They make all these projections during the negotiating process and still settle at a number that they're comfortable with during the length of the deal.

So when a guy like Draisatl sets a benchmark like this, it takes a number of years of the cap rising for somebody else to be able to really change it. And Marner will only be signing his deal 1-2 years after that one.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 12, 2018, 10:25:03 AM
I'd also say that I wouldn't be that surprised if Marner's numbers next season stay pretty close to what he had this season, or maybe even decrease a little bit. Losing JVR (and even Bozak) on the powerplay could really hurt his productivity. It's possible he gets more playing time with Matthews next season, both at even-strength and on the powerplay, but it's also very possible that he doesn't.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: bustaheims on June 12, 2018, 10:36:58 AM
So when a guy like Draisatl sets a benchmark like this, it takes a number of years of the cap rising for somebody else to be able to really change it. And Marner will only be signing his deal 1-2 years after that one.

Yeah. We haven't really seen a clear year-to-year connection between the cap rising and comparable contracts rising in direct proportion. Contracts take a larger jump every few years instead.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on June 12, 2018, 10:47:19 AM
We must believe that our big 3 of Dubas/Pridham/Gilman can get these contracts done in a fair and balanced cap friendly way for the Leafs.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 12, 2018, 11:10:41 AM
As for what I want to happen to the team that I root for including the players I root for:  In a hard cap system, you can't afford too many stars if they are all getting paid full market value- even if you don't have dead weight on your cap ledger.

Right. I understand that. My point is that "I hope we don't have too many stars because we might have to pay them fairly" is evidence that it's a stupid system.

So, am I hoping that Marner signs a 8 x 7M deal now instead of waiting out this year and possibly getting closer to 9-10M?  Yes.  I'm not going to feel bad that his income is 56M instead of 80M over the next 8 years.

To somewhat shift focus, this is another example of the way that teams like the Leafs have things weighted against them in contract negotiations in the current system. A star player in Arizona or Ottawa or Carolina might be negotiating his deal and get told by their GM that they shouldn't press for every dollar because there are empty seats and ticket prices are the lowest in the league and so on and so forth and hockey players, because they're dopes, will listen and take a "fair" reduced salary.

Meanwhile guys like Matthews and Marner are looking at a packed house every night full of Bay Street jerkwads paying 300 bucks a seat. Something tells me their definition of what a "fair" cut might be will differ on that basis.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 12, 2018, 12:18:14 PM
As for what I want to happen to the team that I root for including the players I root for:  In a hard cap system, you can't afford too many stars if they are all getting paid full market value- even if you don't have dead weight on your cap ledger.

Right. I understand that. My point is that "I hope we don't have too many stars because we might have to pay them fairly" is evidence that it's a stupid system.

So, am I hoping that Marner signs a 8 x 7M deal now instead of waiting out this year and possibly getting closer to 9-10M?  Yes.  I'm not going to feel bad that his income is 56M instead of 80M over the next 8 years.

To somewhat shift focus, this is another example of the way that teams like the Leafs have things weighted against them in contract negotiations in the current system. A star player in Arizona or Ottawa or Carolina might be negotiating his deal and get told by their GM that they shouldn't press for every dollar because there are empty seats and ticket prices are the lowest in the league and so on and so forth and hockey players, because they're dopes, will listen and take a "fair" reduced salary.

Meanwhile guys like Matthews and Marner are looking at a packed house every night full of Bay Street jerkwads paying 300 bucks a seat. Something tells me their definition of what a "fair" cut might be will differ on that basis.

Agreed on both counts.  At this point, the Leafs best negotiating tactic is going to be "we want to keep this core together and still be able to pay the necessary pieces for us to contend for a long time... so how about cutting a mill or two a year off your demands so we can build a winner."

Some guys might accept that.  Others won't.  Especially, when that extra million or two goes to overpay guys in FA that don't really help you win.

System is certainly stupid that we may never dip into the free agent market in the upcoming years, but we won't be able to keep all our talent if we pay them market value.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on June 12, 2018, 12:33:58 PM
The thing that comes to mind for me is that these young Leafs are also RFAs, and not UFAs...so there's some leverage there as well, at least in the short term.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 12, 2018, 12:47:21 PM
The thing that comes to mind for me is that these young Leafs are also RFAs, and not UFAs...so there's some leverage there as well, at least in the short term.

Didn't help the Oilers much.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 12, 2018, 01:51:06 PM
The thing that comes to mind for me is that these young Leafs are also RFAs, and not UFAs...so there's some leverage there as well, at least in the short term.

Didn't help the Oilers much.
They have an idiot for a GM tho.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 12, 2018, 01:56:08 PM
They have an idiot for a GM tho.

Did they? So what leverage would a smart GM have had if McDavid demanded 14 million and not a penny less? Let Connor McDavid sit? Let him sign an offer sheet and take picks for a generational talent?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on June 12, 2018, 03:37:03 PM
The thing that comes to mind for me is that these young Leafs are also RFAs, and not UFAs...so there's some leverage there as well, at least in the short term.

Didn't help the Oilers much.

I don't know how to quantify it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on June 13, 2018, 03:59:05 AM
They have an idiot for a GM tho.

Did they? So what leverage would a smart GM have had if McDavid demanded 14 million and not a penny less? Let Connor McDavid sit? Let him sign an offer sheet and take picks for a generational talent?
Yes the idiot is still in place. The issue isn't with McDavid's contract or any generational talent like him. Those guy's get paid, just like Matthews will...It's Dri's contract. Oilers had leverage with him, they didn't use it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: mr grieves on July 12, 2018, 06:07:57 PM
The Matthews contract has its own thread, but that's the least interesting of them all (it'll be $11m).

Marner's will be interesting to see.

Came across players who've had similar production. Here are the PPG, the age the players were when doing it, and the circumstances under which they signed their second contract.

PlayerÖÖ......Ö..GPÖÖ..PtsÖÖ..PPGÖÖ.AgeÖ....Ö.Signed?......CH%......LengthÖ..
D Pastrnak1731230.7118-20at expiry8.89%6
T Hall126950.7519-20after yr210.00%7
V Tarasenko1791350.7521-23at expiry10.27%8
B Ryan1681310.7820-22holdout8.59%5
J Eberle1471190.8120-21after yr210.00%6
M Marner1591300.8219-20?????????
J Gaudreau1591420.8921-22holdout9.25%6
P Kane1621580.9819-20after yr211.09%5
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 12, 2018, 07:46:48 PM

I know people can get sick of my relentless optimism but I do think that of the three contracts, Marner is the one where we're most likely to be pleasantly surprised by the number. Because he's local, because he's more of a set-up guy than a scorer, because I sort of suspect that he's benefitted as much as anyone by the Leafs choosing to balance their scoring lines...I don't know. I know we all think he'll get more than Nylander but I wouldn't be shocked if they're real close.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: mr grieves on July 12, 2018, 08:27:37 PM
I think it's probably true that Marner's number will be lower than we might expect... but I still think his peers' contracts mean we should adjust what constitutes 'pleasantly surprising' from, say, $7m x 8 or $5m bridge deal to something more like $8.5m x 8... or $8m x 7... $7.5m x 6... $7m x 5. Those seem a bit more realistic 'hometown discounts' given the comparables.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 12, 2018, 08:56:31 PM
I think it's probably true that Marner's number will be lower than we might expect... but I still think his peers' contracts mean we should adjust what constitutes 'pleasantly surprising' from, say, $7m x 8 or $5m bridge deal to something more like $8.5m x 8... or $8m x 7... $7.5m x 6... $7m x 5. Those seem a bit more realistic 'hometown discounts' given the comparables.

Well, alright, but let's look at the Hall contract for instance. Same age, really comparable goals per game, signed after year 2...with some differences. Hall was a #1 pick, was more of a goal scorer and probably less sheltered than Marner but Marner was healthy both years, contributed to a winning team and is coming off a good playoffs.

Hall got 7 years at 10% of the cap. So the equivalent for Marner would be 7 years and roughly 56 million or so or 8 million per. However, as I've argued elsewhere, Hall signed when RFA's seemed to be using their leverage a little less than they do now so that may be on the low side. But there's also no hometown discount there(or a "Look at this great team we have, don't you want to be cap friendly?" discount)

But, like I just said, Marner strikes me as the guy who's maybe most likely to sign for slightly below his best comps. If we figure the range on his deal is somewhere between 7 million(Pastrnak's % roughly) and 9 million(Kane) long term, all I'm saying is that it wouldn't shock me if he came down on the less expensive side of that divide. It wouldn't shock me if he didn't, but you know...just my guess.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on July 13, 2018, 04:02:19 PM
But, like I just said, Marner strikes me as the guy who's maybe most likely to sign for slightly below his best comps. If we figure the range on his deal is somewhere between 7 million(Pastrnak's % roughly) and 9 million(Kane) long term, all I'm saying is that it wouldn't shock me if he came down on the less expensive side of that divide. It wouldn't shock me if he didn't, but you know...just my guess.

It's an interesting situation, because the first guy that signs pretty much defines the expectation for the other two, or at least, the spread.. so perhaps that's the dubas strategy for now.. instead of forcing the issue, wait for one guy to want it over with to focus on the upcoming season, and then the other two deals close quickly.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on July 13, 2018, 04:15:16 PM
But, like I just said, Marner strikes me as the guy who's maybe most likely to sign for slightly below his best comps. If we figure the range on his deal is somewhere between 7 million(Pastrnak's % roughly) and 9 million(Kane) long term, all I'm saying is that it wouldn't shock me if he came down on the less expensive side of that divide. It wouldn't shock me if he didn't, but you know...just my guess.

It's an interesting situation, because the first guy that signs pretty much defines the expectation for the other two, or at least, the spread.. so perhaps that's the dubas strategy for now.. instead of forcing the issue, wait for one guy to want it over with to focus on the upcoming season, and then the other two deals close quickly.

Except, Nylander needs a contract before the season starts, Mitch and Auston could wait it out another year. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on July 16, 2018, 01:03:54 PM
Today is July 16th.  I predict Wee Willy Nylander will be signed by July 31 at the latest.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Kaberle15 on July 23, 2018, 12:51:04 PM
Today is July 16th.  I predict Wee Willy Nylander will be signed by July 31 at the latest.
To a Bridge deal (2-3 years) until they have some cap relief or to an 8 year extension ?

I think that one key thing that might work very well in favor of the Leafs and the so called hometown discount is that they can sign contracts structured as the Tavares one, low on salary, huge on SB. That way they are covered if a lockout happen.

they do have 14,741,667.00 in cap space (as of today) + 5.3 mi in the Horton's deal.

I don't think that is enough to lock all 3 for 8 years this summer. Someone is getting a bridge deal, and i do think it is Nylander.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 23, 2018, 12:57:21 PM
Today is July 16th.  I predict Wee Willy Nylander will be signed by July 31 at the latest.
To a Bridge deal (2-3 years) until they have some cap relief or to an 8 year extension ?

I think that one key thing that might work very well in favor of the Leafs and the so called hometown discount is that they can sign contracts structured as the Tavares one, low on salary, huge on SB. That way they are covered if a lockout happen.

they do have 14,741,667.00 in cap space (as of today) + 5.3 mi in the Horton's deal.

I don't think that is enough to lock all 3 for 8 years this summer. Someone is getting a bridge deal, and i do think it is Nylander.

Marner and Matthews have deals for this year, and that don't expire until next summer.  They can sign new deals today, but they won't take effect until next year, and associated cap hits aren't relevant until the season they take effect.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Kaberle15 on July 23, 2018, 08:27:15 PM
Marner and Matthews have deals for this year, and that don't expire until next summer.  They can sign new deals today, but they won't take effect until next year, and associated cap hits aren't relevant until the season they take effect.
I know that, and next year they will have Hansey off and Gardiner as an UFA that is -7Mi off the books, however, those 2 spots should be filled.

My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on July 24, 2018, 01:04:20 PM


My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?
Maybe but I doubt it. Def not 22.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on July 24, 2018, 02:41:31 PM
$6, $7, and $11 million.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 24, 2018, 02:46:54 PM
$6, $7, and $11 million.

Best of luck on those first two.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 24, 2018, 03:00:54 PM
$7.5, $8.5, $10.5.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on July 24, 2018, 05:54:04 PM
My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?
Maybe but I doubt it. Def not 22.

Yeah, that's way too optimistic. If they came under 27M I'd be pleasantly suprised
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 25, 2018, 10:19:42 AM
My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?
Maybe but I doubt it. Def not 22.

Yeah, that's way too optimistic. If they came under 27M I'd be pleasantly suprised

I don't believe Nylander has a case to be paid more than 7M on his next deal and will most likely come in slightly under that (6.5 to 6.75) 

Matthews, if he signs this off-season seems to be a no-brainer at 11M  (between Eichel and McDavid... and the same as Tavares).  If he waits until after the upcoming season, things can change based on his performance- so the question is, is his camp in the lets wait until after this season to sign mode, or lets get it done now mode?

Anyways, lets assume 11M.... So we're at 18M.

So you think Marner is going to command 9M+?  If he were to sign before this season starts he's not getting much more than Nylander.  He could go out and have a huge campaign and that will definitely push his number up.  At the same time, I'd be really surprised if Marner wasn't the guy out of these three that signs the most team-friendly deal.  Not EXPECTING IT, but wouldn't be surprised.

Anyways, the whole point of my statement was to say I believe you will be pleasantly surprised.  I'm expecting these three to come in around 25-27M- depending mostly on WHEN Matthews and Marner sign their extensions.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on July 25, 2018, 10:21:45 AM
I am hoping for no bridge deals, let's lock down this offensive core.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 25, 2018, 05:12:37 PM
My point is, they should extend the Big 3 with less than 22 - 24 mi. Can they do it ?
Maybe but I doubt it. Def not 22.

Yeah, that's way too optimistic. If they came under 27M I'd be pleasantly suprised

I don't believe Nylander has a case to be paid more than 7M on his next deal and will most likely come in slightly under that (6.5 to 6.75) 

Matthews, if he signs this off-season seems to be a no-brainer at 11M  (between Eichel and McDavid... and the same as Tavares).  If he waits until after the upcoming season, things can change based on his performance- so the question is, is his camp in the lets wait until after this season to sign mode, or lets get it done now mode?

Anyways, lets assume 11M.... So we're at 18M.

So you think Marner is going to command 9M+?  If he were to sign before this season starts he's not getting much more than Nylander.  He could go out and have a huge campaign and that will definitely push his number up.  At the same time, I'd be really surprised if Marner wasn't the guy out of these three that signs the most team-friendly deal.  Not EXPECTING IT, but wouldn't be surprised.

Anyways, the whole point of my statement was to say I believe you will be pleasantly surprised.  I'm expecting these three to come in around 25-27M- depending mostly on WHEN Matthews and Marner sign their extensions.

Tell them they've got $25M AAV to work with between them, and lock them in a room until they come out with a consensus. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 25, 2018, 07:34:18 PM
Matthews, if he signs this off-season seems to be a no-brainer at 11M  (between Eichel and McDavid... and the same as Tavares).  If he waits until after the upcoming season, things can change based on his performance- so the question is, is his camp in the lets wait until after this season to sign mode, or lets get it done now mode?

Anyways, lets assume 11M.... So we're at 18M.

I think that's a pretty big assumption and it's kind of the crux of the whole matter. I think most Leafs fans would be thrilled with Matthews at 11M and I think that's a reasonable sign that he might not come that cheap. Put Matthews at 13 and Nylander at 7 and that 27 figure looks very optimistic.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 25, 2018, 08:10:15 PM
Yeah, I have to agree.  Anyway, I don't know why Matthews would sign before he has to.  Let's say he's injury-free or close to it this year.  He could still have a down year statistically and get $11M -- they aren't going to refuse that ask -- and if he has a Tavares-goosed breakout year then it's a fast train to McDavidstan.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on July 25, 2018, 11:32:41 PM
Yeah, I have to agree.  Anyway, I don't know why Matthews would sign before he has to.  Let's say he's injury-free or close to it this year.  He could still have a down year statistically and get $11M -- they aren't going to refuse that ask -- and if he has a Tavares-goosed breakout year then it's a fast train to McDavidstan.
He could always get injured to, like any player and then it's gone. There's good and bad with signing now or later. The money isn't going to be all that different. And if he has a Tavares-goosed year, that doesn't necessarily work in his favour. Leafs can counter the JT effect as a reason for the big increase. He isn't getting McDavid money. He may have a case if he wins the Art Ross, Hart and Lindsay awards..
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 26, 2018, 01:09:46 AM
He could always get injured to, like any player and then it's gone.

People always say this but I think if you really examined it, really looked at how many times someone has gotten hurt so badly that it really affected their ability to have a successful career afterwards, then I think it's the sort of thing that becomes something that most players aren't going to take all that seriously as an influence on them. It's like saying you should avoid going on holiday because your plane could crash and you could die. Is it true? Sure. Does it actually affect anyone's decision making? Not really.

And if he has a Tavares-goosed year, that doesn't necessarily work in his favour. Leafs can counter the JT effect as a reason for the big increase.

And then what? Be at an impasse? Risk ruining things with potentially the most important young player in the history of the franchise over a relatively small amount of money?

That's the problem with this line of thinking. Matthews, like McDavid, can essentially get whatever he wants because the likelihood is that if the Leafs don't want to give it to him, someone else will. We saw with McDavid that the Oilers were willing to give McDavid more money than McDavid eventually signed for which is why the comparisons to McDavid's contract don't really work as a singular point, you're expecting Matthews to take the same haircut McDavid did when Matthews may not be so inclined.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on July 28, 2018, 09:47:49 AM
My prediction for the contract announcements is coming up. July 31 let's go!!!!!!
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on July 30, 2018, 02:31:29 PM
Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on July 30, 2018, 02:36:16 PM
Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

Or maybe they are patiently examining comparables and building a mutually beneficial contract using financial creativity (a la Tavares' signing bonus-laden deal) so that everybody wins (unlike Doughty).
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on July 30, 2018, 02:40:33 PM
Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

Or maybe they are patiently examining comparables and building a mutually beneficial contract using financial creativity (a la Tavares' signing bonus-laden deal) so that everybody wins (unlike Doughty).
Well they already have the Tavares template so let's go.

I wouldn't be surprised if they announce all 3 at once since they're all dependent on one another.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: bustaheims on July 30, 2018, 02:41:38 PM
Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.


William Nylander on contract talks: "Kyle says it's going to take some time so I'm not too stressed about it"
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 30, 2018, 03:01:25 PM
Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.


William Nylander on contract talks: "Kyle says it's going to take some time so I'm not too stressed about it"

It's interesting, because NHL contracts are pretty simple things that Tavares was able to nail down in a matter of a couple of days.

There could be a few reasons why things are being delayed though, so I'm (EDIT) NOT suggesting that the Nylander camp is asking for more than what the Leafs are willing to pay.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 30, 2018, 03:19:17 PM
Last year Draisaitl didn't sign his contract until August 16th. Horvat didn't sign his until September 8th. Pastrnak didn't sign until September 14th.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bullfrog on July 30, 2018, 03:26:17 PM
Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

Or maybe they are patiently examining comparables and building a mutually beneficial contract using financial creativity (a la Tavares' signing bonus-laden deal) so that everybody wins (unlike Doughty).
Well they already have the Tavares template so let's go.

I wouldn't be surprised if they announce all 3 at once since they're all dependent on one another.

I'll be extremely surprised if they announce all 3 at once. I'd say it's extremely unlikely to happen. I don't think they're dependent on each other. Sure, they are all viewed in a team context, but I don't that'll have too much of an influence.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on July 30, 2018, 03:28:44 PM
Last year Draisaitl didn't sign his contract until August 16th. Horvat didn't sign his until September 8th. Pastrnak didn't sign until September 14th.

Could it be argued that the later the signing goes the lower the AAV tends to be on these second deals?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 30, 2018, 03:46:21 PM
Last year Draisaitl didn't sign his contract until August 16th. Horvat didn't sign his until September 8th. Pastrnak didn't sign until September 14th.

Could it be argued that the later the signing goes the lower the AAV tends to be on these second deals?

MacKinnon/Scheifele vs. Monahan the year before unfortunately blow this very good theory out of water.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 30, 2018, 04:01:46 PM
Let's get a move on. The last thing Nylander needs is to be asked about it 32 times per day. Maybe Dubas is in cahoots with the media and is trying aggravate Nylander into less $.

I sort of think these things are a little more intuitive than that. If Nylander were the kind of guy who'd really be bothered by the media and uncertainty than he'd also probably be the guy who tells his agent to get a deal done quickly. If he doesn't really mind giving fairly rote answers to not particularly invasive questions he's also probably going to be inclined to let his representation hammer out the best possible deal and enjoy his summer.

Honestly unless there's a massive difference between a player and team and things get contentious like they did in Carolina with Lindholm I'm inclined to think these things take up way less mental real estate for players than we think. Especially for an inscrutable type like Nylander seems to be.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 30, 2018, 04:28:05 PM
I wonder how much of the delay is literally due to vacations. If you need five people together in one room, and everyone is off doing things for the summer, you just need to get a string of a few days in which they're all available. But that may be in July, Aug, Sept...
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 30, 2018, 04:28:12 PM
Last year Draisaitl didn't sign his contract until August 16th. Horvat didn't sign his until September 8th. Pastrnak didn't sign until September 14th.

Sure, and there are a few guys that are still without a deal that are in Nylander's range:  Stone, Larkin, and Karlsson are without deals today as well.

Stone is going to arbitration, Karlsson is as well (which I think is probably good for Vegas).  So that leaves Larkin and Nylander as RFA's that are just simply without a deal, and they don't have the option of arbitration.

We really don't know anything about what's going on (nor should we), but it would be silly to suggest that if Matthews wants $13m, and Marner wants $9m, and Nylander wants $8m, that Dubas & co could really keep it all together without having to make some significant decisions on whether or not that's plausible.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 30, 2018, 04:39:17 PM
We really don't know anything about what's going on (nor should we), but it would be silly to suggest that if Matthews wants $13m, and Marner wants $9m, and Nylander wants $8m, that Dubas & co could really keep it all together without having to make some significant decisions on whether or not that's plausible.

I do believe that Matthews' next contract is essentially going to be as high as Matthews wants it to be (although considering the typical hockey player mentality, I don't think it goes above $12mil), but the Leafs do need to play a little hardball with Marner and Nylander. There's zero comparables out there right now that would give Nylander a contract with an $8mil AAV, and even if Marner has a monster year next season I think Draisaitl's deal is essentially the cap for him.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 30, 2018, 04:50:38 PM
I wonder how much of the delay is literally due to vacations. If you need five people together in one room, and everyone is off doing things for the summer, you just need to get a string of a few days in which they're all available. But that may be in July, Aug, Sept...

I'm not sure who or how many people need to be in a room to negotiate a deal but I have to imagine July and August are fairly uncommon times for agents and their staff and front office people to be taking vacations.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 30, 2018, 05:01:50 PM
We really don't know anything about what's going on (nor should we), but it would be silly to suggest that if Matthews wants $13m, and Marner wants $9m, and Nylander wants $8m, that Dubas & co could really keep it all together without having to make some significant decisions on whether or not that's plausible.

I do believe that Matthews' next contract is essentially going to be as high as Matthews wants it to be (although considering the typical hockey player mentality, I don't think it goes above $12mil), but the Leafs do need to play a little hardball with Marner and Nylander. There's zero comparables out there right now that would give Nylander a contract with an $8mil AAV, and even if Marner has a monster year next season I think Draisaitl's deal is essentially the cap for him.

I'm with you, it was just a hypothetical that would likely give them pause.

There's no doubt in my mind that Dubas would want to know what the ask is for Marner and Matthews in order to determine how to handle the more pressing contract of Nylander.  Whether or not those camps have discussed a number with Dubas is another thing that we really don't know.

But really, suggesting that these things are so super complicated that they can't get done fairly quickly, if there weren't other variables in play, is bananas to me.  Look at all the contracts that get signed on July 1...and even if we say that teams were obviously in contact with those players' agents previous to July 1, then couldn't we say the same for Nylander who was actually in front of them all season?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 30, 2018, 05:22:55 PM

William Nylander on contract talks: "Kyle says it's going to take some time so I'm not too stressed about it"

From "Mr. Lamoriello, sir" to "Kyle"?  And said while bearded?  Are.  You.  Kid.  Ding.  Me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FOUqQt3Kg0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FOUqQt3Kg0)

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 30, 2018, 05:30:16 PM
We really don't know anything about what's going on (nor should we), but it would be silly to suggest that if Matthews wants $13m, and Marner wants $9m, and Nylander wants $8m, that Dubas & co could really keep it all together without having to make some significant decisions on whether or not that's plausible.

I do believe that Matthews' next contract is essentially going to be as high as Matthews wants it to be (although considering the typical hockey player mentality, I don't think it goes above $12mil), but the Leafs do need to play a little hardball with Marner and Nylander. There's zero comparables out there right now that would give Nylander a contract with an $8mil AAV, and even if Marner has a monster year next season I think Draisaitl's deal is essentially the cap for him.

Agreed. 

Keep in mind:  Only 25 forwards in the NHL exceed $7M AAV.  Only McDavid, Eichel, Ovechkin, Draisatl, and Tarasenko are guys who got those deals coming out of their ELC's.  Looking further back, Crosby, Malkin, and Stamkos are the only guys who had post-ELC's above 7M AAV.  All superstars, and mostly centers.

Are Nylander and Marner top 25 forwards?  Neither are at this point.  Marner might put himself in that conversation this coming season.

There is the argument that you should look at cap hit percentage for comparables.  Then there are some comparables coming out of ELC's that got above 10% of the cap at the time:  Eberle, Hall, Backstrom, Kane, and Toews (going back to 2010).   Not that many, and almost all of those guys had bigger years in their ELC's than Nylander and Marner have had so far.

Edit:  Seguin and Nugent Hopkins also had very close to 10% cap hits coming out of ELC's. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: nutman on July 30, 2018, 05:35:39 PM
All three won't get as much as most are guessing. I think because its there first long term contract, we will get all three for much less then the common guess going around.  The next contract like the one JT  just signed will be the one that put our payroll to the test.  Mathews will not get JT money yet, and the other two will be around the same as Marleau, or Kadri.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 30, 2018, 05:38:44 PM
We really don't know anything about what's going on (nor should we), but it would be silly to suggest that if Matthews wants $13m, and Marner wants $9m, and Nylander wants $8m, that Dubas & co could really keep it all together without having to make some significant decisions on whether or not that's plausible.

I do believe that Matthews' next contract is essentially going to be as high as Matthews wants it to be (although considering the typical hockey player mentality, I don't think it goes above $12mil), but the Leafs do need to play a little hardball with Marner and Nylander. There's zero comparables out there right now that would give Nylander a contract with an $8mil AAV, and even if Marner has a monster year next season I think Draisaitl's deal is essentially the cap for him.

Agreed. 

Keep in mind:  Only 25 forwards in the NHL exceed $7M AAV.  Only McDavid, Eichel, Ovechkin, Draisatl, and Tarasenko are guys who got those deals coming out of their ELC's.  Looking further back, Crosby, Malkin, and Stamkos are the only guys who had post-ELC's above 7M AAV.  All superstars, and mostly centers.

Are Nylander and Marner top 25 forwards?  Neither are at this point.  Marner might put himself in that conversation this coming season.

There is the argument that you should look at cap hit percentage for comparables.  Then there are some comparables coming out of ELC's that got above 10% of the cap at the time:  Eberle, Hall, Backstrom, Kane, and Toews (going back to 2010).   Not that many, and almost all of those guys had bigger years in their ELC's than Nylander and Marner have had so far.

Edit:  Seguin and Nugent Hopkins also had very close to 10% cap hits coming out of ELC's.

Also interesting how many of those guys are/were Oilers.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 30, 2018, 05:59:01 PM
We really don't know anything about what's going on (nor should we), but it would be silly to suggest that if Matthews wants $13m, and Marner wants $9m, and Nylander wants $8m, that Dubas & co could really keep it all together without having to make some significant decisions on whether or not that's plausible.

I do believe that Matthews' next contract is essentially going to be as high as Matthews wants it to be (although considering the typical hockey player mentality, I don't think it goes above $12mil), but the Leafs do need to play a little hardball with Marner and Nylander. There's zero comparables out there right now that would give Nylander a contract with an $8mil AAV, and even if Marner has a monster year next season I think Draisaitl's deal is essentially the cap for him.

Agreed. 

Keep in mind:  Only 25 forwards in the NHL exceed $7M AAV.  Only McDavid, Eichel, Ovechkin, Draisatl, and Tarasenko are guys who got those deals coming out of their ELC's.  Looking further back, Crosby, Malkin, and Stamkos are the only guys who had post-ELC's above 7M AAV.  All superstars, and mostly centers.

Are Nylander and Marner top 25 forwards?  Neither are at this point.  Marner might put himself in that conversation this coming season.

There is the argument that you should look at cap hit percentage for comparables.  Then there are some comparables coming out of ELC's that got above 10% of the cap at the time:  Eberle, Hall, Backstrom, Kane, and Toews (going back to 2010).   Not that many, and almost all of those guys had bigger years in their ELC's than Nylander and Marner have had so far.

Edit:  Seguin and Nugent Hopkins also had very close to 10% cap hits coming out of ELC's.

So, I may have been overshooting things with my well researched prediction, but I don't think I'm that far off with Marner at over $7m:

Here's my projection, based on nothing:

$11.25  X 7
$7.7 X 6
$6.67 X 6

The deals expire once guys are 28 years old: lots of UFA money/term still available, and staggered so that they can be handled individually. 

They'll do for Nylander and Marner what they did for Tavares with the max signing bonus and lock-out proof them, but only for that potential lock-out season/CBA ending year.  The other years will have a smattering of $3m-$4m in signing bonus component.

Matthews gets the full Tavares signing bonus laden package.

According to the NHL.com stats, Marner was well over a PPG guy in February and March, so there's some evidence there that as the season went on, he got more productive after his 4th line stints and stuff earlier on in the season.

Nylander didn't.  Nylander went 12 pts in 14 games in February, to 7 in 13 games in March.  April was only 3 games, although Nylander had a couple of good games, Marner not as much, but who cares it's 3 games.

Marner was also much more productive in the playoffs, but again, small sample size.

I think what I'm trying to argue here is that Marner should be considered a PPG guy, and didn't play with Matthews to get there.  Nylander is certainly not a PPG, while playing with Matthews.

Kadri and Marleau certainly aren't low caliber offensive guys to play with, but I have to think that Marner's deal is going to be significantly better than Nylander's.

I pegged Nylander at around Pastrnak money, but do we think he's worth a little less?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 30, 2018, 06:55:38 PM
There is the argument that you should look at cap hit percentage for comparables.  Then there are some comparables coming out of ELC's that got above 10% of the cap at the time:  Eberle, Hall, Backstrom, Kane, and Toews (going back to 2010).   Not that many, and almost all of those guys had bigger years in their ELC's than Nylander and Marner have had so far.

But I think the Kane deal kind of shows one of the tricky things about these sorts of negotiations. Sure, if you're the Leafs you're going to be inclined to look at Kane's breakout third year and say that's the source of paying him what they paid him but if you're Marner's agent and being asked to negotiate a long-term deal right now you're probably going to be inclined to look at the comparison of the first two years of their respective careers being as that's all Marner's gotten the chance to actually play.

If you look at those two years there are ways to look at it as Kane having better production(simply in terms of points per game or total points, playing against the other team's top defense every night) or ways to look at it in Marner's favour(points per minute, especially PP time). Treating the Leafs' young players with relative kid gloves in terms of ice time is kind of a double edged sword in that respect.

So Kane's deal is kind of a thorny one for comparison here. If Marner wants a similar deal now you'd be talking about 8.8 aav and that's without buying any UFA years.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on July 30, 2018, 07:04:09 PM
I pegged Nylander at around Pastrnak money, but do we think he's worth a little less?

In my opinion, yes.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on July 30, 2018, 07:43:51 PM
Tomorrow is the day guys, I feel it in my bones!
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 31, 2018, 07:54:27 AM
I wonder how much of the delay is literally due to vacations. If you need five people together in one room, and everyone is off doing things for the summer, you just need to get a string of a few days in which they're all available. But that may be in July, Aug, Sept...

I'm not sure who or how many people need to be in a room to negotiate a deal but I have to imagine July and August are fairly uncommon times for agents and their staff and front office people to be taking vacations.

Better now than mid season. Summer's are slow for the team I would think, late July and Aug anyway.

Plus it wouldn't just be vacations. There are charity ping pong tourneys and things too.

I don't know. It's just tough to come up with a reason for a contract to take months to work out, unless there was a disagreement.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 31, 2018, 09:49:44 AM
There is the argument that you should look at cap hit percentage for comparables.  Then there are some comparables coming out of ELC's that got above 10% of the cap at the time:  Eberle, Hall, Backstrom, Kane, and Toews (going back to 2010).   Not that many, and almost all of those guys had bigger years in their ELC's than Nylander and Marner have had so far.

But I think the Kane deal kind of shows one of the tricky things about these sorts of negotiations. Sure, if you're the Leafs you're going to be inclined to look at Kane's breakout third year and say that's the source of paying him what they paid him but if you're Marner's agent and being asked to negotiate a long-term deal right now you're probably going to be inclined to look at the comparison of the first two years of their respective careers being as that's all Marner's gotten the chance to actually play.

If you look at those two years there are ways to look at it as Kane having better production(simply in terms of points per game or total points, playing against the other team's top defense every night) or ways to look at it in Marner's favour(points per minute, especially PP time). Treating the Leafs' young players with relative kid gloves in terms of ice time is kind of a double edged sword in that respect.

So Kane's deal is kind of a thorny one for comparison here. If Marner wants a similar deal now you'd be talking about 8.8 aav and that's without buying any UFA years.

You're talking about a deal done 8 years ago on a guy that had a 30 goal  - 88 point season, came in 9th best in the league in scoring, 7th in Hart Trophy voting...that deal is going to be some kind of benchmark for Marner's?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 31, 2018, 10:40:24 AM
There is the argument that you should look at cap hit percentage for comparables.  Then there are some comparables coming out of ELC's that got above 10% of the cap at the time:  Eberle, Hall, Backstrom, Kane, and Toews (going back to 2010).   Not that many, and almost all of those guys had bigger years in their ELC's than Nylander and Marner have had so far.

But I think the Kane deal kind of shows one of the tricky things about these sorts of negotiations. Sure, if you're the Leafs you're going to be inclined to look at Kane's breakout third year and say that's the source of paying him what they paid him but if you're Marner's agent and being asked to negotiate a long-term deal right now you're probably going to be inclined to look at the comparison of the first two years of their respective careers being as that's all Marner's gotten the chance to actually play.

If you look at those two years there are ways to look at it as Kane having better production(simply in terms of points per game or total points, playing against the other team's top defense every night) or ways to look at it in Marner's favour(points per minute, especially PP time). Treating the Leafs' young players with relative kid gloves in terms of ice time is kind of a double edged sword in that respect.

So Kane's deal is kind of a thorny one for comparison here. If Marner wants a similar deal now you'd be talking about 8.8 aav and that's without buying any UFA years.

You're talking about a deal done 8 years ago on a guy that had a 30 goal  - 88 point season, came in 9th best in the league in scoring, 7th in Hart Trophy voting...that deal is going to be some kind of benchmark for Marner's?

And had 28 pts (2nd on his team to Toews) in 22 GP to win the Stanley Cup.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 31, 2018, 11:16:39 AM
There is the argument that you should look at cap hit percentage for comparables.  Then there are some comparables coming out of ELC's that got above 10% of the cap at the time:  Eberle, Hall, Backstrom, Kane, and Toews (going back to 2010).   Not that many, and almost all of those guys had bigger years in their ELC's than Nylander and Marner have had so far.

But I think the Kane deal kind of shows one of the tricky things about these sorts of negotiations. Sure, if you're the Leafs you're going to be inclined to look at Kane's breakout third year and say that's the source of paying him what they paid him but if you're Marner's agent and being asked to negotiate a long-term deal right now you're probably going to be inclined to look at the comparison of the first two years of their respective careers being as that's all Marner's gotten the chance to actually play.

If you look at those two years there are ways to look at it as Kane having better production(simply in terms of points per game or total points, playing against the other team's top defense every night) or ways to look at it in Marner's favour(points per minute, especially PP time). Treating the Leafs' young players with relative kid gloves in terms of ice time is kind of a double edged sword in that respect.

So Kane's deal is kind of a thorny one for comparison here. If Marner wants a similar deal now you'd be talking about 8.8 aav and that's without buying any UFA years.

You're talking about a deal done 8 years ago on a guy that had a 30 goal  - 88 point season, came in 9th best in the league in scoring, 7th in Hart Trophy voting...that deal is going to be some kind of benchmark for Marner's?

And had 28 pts (2nd on his team to Toews) in 22 GP to win the Stanley Cup.

Yeah, I looked at that after I posted it, good point. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 31, 2018, 11:58:10 AM
You're talking about a deal done 8 years ago on a guy that had a 30 goal  - 88 point season, came in 9th best in the league in scoring, 7th in Hart Trophy voting...that deal is going to be some kind of benchmark for Marner's?

And had 28 pts (2nd on his team to Toews) in 22 GP to win the Stanley Cup.

Yeah, I looked at that after I posted it, good point. 

Kane signed that 5-year contract just a few months into the 09/10 season (the final year of his ELC). So he didn't have the full 88-point season and subsequent playoff run yet. Probably safe to guess he could have earned a little more if he waited until the offseason to negotiate.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 31, 2018, 12:15:12 PM
You're talking about a deal done 8 years ago on a guy that had a 30 goal  - 88 point season, came in 9th best in the league in scoring, 7th in Hart Trophy voting...that deal is going to be some kind of benchmark for Marner's?

And had 28 pts (2nd on his team to Toews) in 22 GP to win the Stanley Cup.

Yeah, I looked at that after I posted it, good point. 

Kane signed that 5-year contract just a few months into the 09/10 season (the final year of his ELC). So he didn't have the full 88-point season and subsequent playoff run yet. Probably safe to guess he could have earned a little more if he waited until the offseason to negotiate.

Good catch!
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 31, 2018, 12:29:44 PM
You're talking about a deal done 8 years ago on a guy that had a 30 goal  - 88 point season, came in 9th best in the league in scoring, 7th in Hart Trophy voting...that deal is going to be some kind of benchmark for Marner's?

And had 28 pts (2nd on his team to Toews) in 22 GP to win the Stanley Cup.

Yeah, I looked at that after I posted it, good point. 

Kane signed that 5-year contract just a few months into the 09/10 season (the final year of his ELC). So he didn't have the full 88-point season and subsequent playoff run yet. Probably safe to guess he could have earned a little more if he waited until the offseason to negotiate.

Shut it Carlton...damn it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 31, 2018, 12:37:05 PM
Shut it Carlton...damn it.

Sorry man, I know how difficult and time consuming it must have been for you to look up all those stats.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 31, 2018, 12:38:59 PM
Shut it Carlton...damn it.

Sorry man, I know how difficult and time consuming it must have been for you to look up all those stats.

And you know how much I hate doing that.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 31, 2018, 12:47:44 PM
Shut it Carlton...damn it.

Sorry man, I know how difficult and time consuming it must have been for you to look up all those stats.

And you know how much I hate doing that.

I gave you an A for effort. If you weren't entirely wrong that would have been a solid post.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 31, 2018, 01:08:51 PM
Shut it Carlton...damn it.

Sorry man, I know how difficult and time consuming it must have been for you to look up all those stats.

And you know how much I hate doing that.

I gave you an A for effort. If you weren't entirely wrong that would have been a solid post.

(http://i1260.photobucket.com/albums/ii562/fvanderveen/Like.png)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 31, 2018, 02:13:07 PM
Better now than mid season. Summer's are slow for the team I would think, late July and Aug anyway.

Plus it wouldn't just be vacations. There are charity ping pong tourneys and things too.

I don't know. It's just tough to come up with a reason for a contract to take months to work out, unless there was a disagreement.

Maybe I'm completely talking outside of myself here but everytime I watch movies about hotshot big time agents or executives they make it a point to essentially always be reachable by phone, vacation or no(and honestly, I'd think contract negotiating season would be the busiest time for them). I genuinely wonder if there's ever a time where someone like Dubas can really take an extended vacation where he's not at least available for consultation.

Like I was saying earlier, I'm not sure most players would get involved unless absolutely necessary so they can probably play all the beer pong hey want.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 31, 2018, 02:26:45 PM
You're talking about a deal done 8 years ago on a guy that had a 30 goal  - 88 point season, came in 9th best in the league in scoring, 7th in Hart Trophy voting...that deal is going to be some kind of benchmark for Marner's?

But even beyond you being wrong about the timing of when that deal was signed, let's say you're right and Kane only signed that deal after his ELC expired. Marner's agent is still being asked to negotiate a long term(one assumes) deal on the basis of his first two seasons. If Marner's agents are inclined to really make a push for their client you'd have to think they'd probably look at him as being likely to also have a big third year(especially playing with Tavares) and want to factor that growth into the contract.

So let's say Marner goes out and has a really good year. Not quite Kane level but, say, 80 points or so. Then let's say the Leafs have a decent run in the playoffs and Marner plays well, albeit not as well as Kane.

Then, yeah, I think absolutely Kane's contract is going to be seen as an interesting comparison. Sure, he wasn't quite at Kane's level(presumably pushing things a little lower cap % wise) but the Leafs would probably be trying to buy UFA years that the Blackhawks didn't(presumably pushing things higher cap % wise).

My point here was never Marner is as good as Kane or Marner is going to make the same demands as Kane but just that there's lots of ways to peel an orange and agents are always going to be looking at the ways to present their clients in the best light. Marner and Kane have had pretty similar production throughout their first two seasons despite the fact that Kane had almost twice as much PP ice time as Marner did in that span(660 minutes to 360 minutes).
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 31, 2018, 04:09:34 PM
You're talking about a deal done 8 years ago on a guy that had a 30 goal  - 88 point season, came in 9th best in the league in scoring, 7th in Hart Trophy voting...that deal is going to be some kind of benchmark for Marner's?

But even beyond you being wrong about the timing of when that deal was signed, let's say you're right and Kane only signed that deal after his ELC expired. Marner's agent is still being asked to negotiate a long term(one assumes) deal on the basis of his first two seasons. If Marner's agents are inclined to really make a push for their client you'd have to think they'd probably look at him as being likely to also have a big third year(especially playing with Tavares) and want to factor that growth into the contract.

So let's say Marner goes out and has a really good year. Not quite Kane level but, say, 80 points or so. Then let's say the Leafs have a decent run in the playoffs and Marner plays well, albeit not as well as Kane.

Then, yeah, I think absolutely Kane's contract is going to be seen as an interesting comparison. Sure, he wasn't quite at Kane's level(presumably pushing things a little lower cap % wise) but the Leafs would probably be trying to buy UFA years that the Blackhawks didn't(presumably pushing things higher cap % wise).

My point here was never Marner is as good as Kane or Marner is going to make the same demands as Kane but just that there's lots of ways to peel an orange and agents are always going to be looking at the ways to present their clients in the best light. Marner and Kane have had pretty similar production throughout their first two seasons despite the fact that Kane had almost twice as much PP ice time as Marner did in that span(660 minutes to 360 minutes).

We'll see, I guess... but what is now clear though is that I was definitely wrong.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 31, 2018, 04:37:57 PM

Also, can I just say what a bummer the Salary Cap is with regards to this sort of thing? We should be stoked by the idea that Marner would be worthy of a contract that approximates Kane. Back in the day, it was a point of pride that the guy on your team was as good or better than the guy on the other team.

Now, though, the cap has turned us all into amateur accountants who think our best interests are served by trying to present our talented young players in the worst possible light. It's stupid and not all that conducive to fandom, I don't think.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on July 31, 2018, 04:51:13 PM

Also, can I just say what a bummer the Salary Cap is with regards to this sort of thing? We should be stoked by the idea that Marner would be worthy of a contract that approximates Kane. Back in the day, it was a point of pride that the guy on your team was as good or better than the guy on the other team.

Now, though, the cap has turned us all into amateur accountants who think our best interests are served by trying to present our talented young players in the worst possible light. It's stupid and not all that conducive to fandom, I don't think.
I have no idea what is going to happen to cap going forward considering how unstable things are under the Trump admin. There has been some wild swings in the CAD. I read today that Betman is going after hockey related gambling so who knows? Hockey related revenues? I think so.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on July 31, 2018, 05:49:23 PM

Also, can I just say what a bummer the Salary Cap is with regards to this sort of thing? We should be stoked by the idea that Marner would be worthy of a contract that approximates Kane. Back in the day, it was a point of pride that the guy on your team was as good or better than the guy on the other team.

Now, though, the cap has turned us all into amateur accountants who think our best interests are served by trying to present our talented young players in the worst possible light. It's stupid and not all that conducive to fandom, I don't think.

I'm not with you here.  I think most Leaf fans are pretty stoked about the team, and so much so that they want to make sure all the pieces fit together under the cap.  I'd bet most Leafs fans would place the forward group amongst the best in the league today.  So I think that as much as they love Marner, they want him to sign as cheap a deal as possible so that the Leafs can afford more Marners.  I'd prefer their next Marner to be a 80 point RD that signs for $3m...see how that works?  It's fun!
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 31, 2018, 05:52:22 PM
Better now than mid season. Summer's are slow for the team I would think, late July and Aug anyway.

Plus it wouldn't just be vacations. There are charity ping pong tourneys and things too.

I don't know. It's just tough to come up with a reason for a contract to take months to work out, unless there was a disagreement.

Maybe I'm completely talking outside of myself here but everytime I watch movies about hotshot big time agents or executives they make it a point to essentially always be reachable by phone, vacation or no(and honestly, I'd think contract negotiating season would be the busiest time for them). I genuinely wonder if there's ever a time where someone like Dubas can really take an extended vacation where he's not at least available for consultation.

Like I was saying earlier, I'm not sure most players would get involved unless absolutely necessary so they can probably play all the beer pong hey want.

Only movies I get to watch start with Disney. :( So my insight is weak in that sense.

Maybe replace vacations with obligations then. Agent is in LA for a signing, this week, so he can't fly to Toronto to finalize the Nylander signing. Is he enjoying LA"s sun and beaches, who cares. Point is he's busy so they schedule the Nylander signing for early Sept.

What I wonder is if there is really work going on every day or week on Nylander's contract, or if they just have other stuff to do. I suppose actual vacations may not be a top ten in the things to do.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 31, 2018, 05:58:46 PM
So I think that as much as they love Marner, they want him to sign as cheap a deal as possible so that the Leafs can afford more Marners.

I really don't get how you can't see how that puts players in a needlessly adversarial place with fans. When McDavid, who's absolutely 100% worth the maximum, negotiated his deal originally he got heat for being "selfish" for wanting 13.25. He had to negotiate his own deal down to avoid that.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 31, 2018, 06:01:30 PM
What I wonder is if there is really work going on every day or week on Nylander's contract, or if they just have other stuff to do. I suppose actual vacations may not be a top ten in the things to do.

My guess is that it's more about having other stuff to do. Front Office staff have multiple deals to work out, agents have multiple clients and both of them probably have other professional obligations(Dubas probably wanted to be around for some of the rookie camp, for instance) so I'd wager things like a Nylander negotiation gets scheduled for a certain time and everyone's cool with chilling out until that day.

That said, if it was really a spur under anyone's saddle, my guess is Nylander's camp could call Dubas and vice-versa to set something up whenever. I just don't think that urgency typically exists unless people think things will get contentious.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 31, 2018, 07:24:31 PM
What I wonder is if there is really work going on every day or week on Nylander's contract, or if they just have other stuff to do. I suppose actual vacations may not be a top ten in the things to do.

My guess is that it's more about having other stuff to do. Front Office staff have multiple deals to work out, agents have multiple clients and both of them probably have other professional obligations(Dubas probably wanted to be around for some of the rookie camp, for instance) so I'd wager things like a Nylander negotiation gets scheduled for a certain time and everyone's cool with chilling out until that day.

That said, if it was really a spur under anyone's saddle, my guess is Nylander's camp could call Dubas and vice-versa to set something up whenever. I just don't think that urgency typically exists unless people think things will get contentious.

Ya I think that's about it.

Also generally agree with the cap argument you made. Although I personally enjoy spending a few min on cap friendly thinking through the options. But I'd prefer phone app logic puzzles and no cap, to cap puzzles and cap.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 01, 2018, 10:01:57 AM
So I think that as much as they love Marner, they want him to sign as cheap a deal as possible so that the Leafs can afford more Marners.

I really don't get how you can't see how that puts players in a needlessly adversarial place with fans. When McDavid, who's absolutely 100% worth the maximum, negotiated his deal originally he got heat for being "selfish" for wanting 13.25. He had to negotiate his own deal down to avoid that.

The cap puts this pressure on.  Want to have a good team, you have to have a number of players on deals where their value exceeds the cost.  So yes, players can be put in adversarial place with fans if they shoot for the absolute most knowing it can impact the team composition.

The solution is simple:  get rid of the cap.  But the Owners aren't going to let that happen so it is what it is. 

At the end of the day though, I wouldn't blame fans for thinking this way at all... its not like McDavid, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander are really going to feel the difference of a couple of million a year.  They will all make over $50M in their careers MINIMUM.  None of us are asking Marner to sign for 2M a season.  We're saying make 6M instead of 8M... so 48M vs 64M on an 8-year deal.  Yeah, I'm not feeling bad about hoping that's how it plays out.  He'll be just fine making approximately 52M for the first 11 years of his career (ie, he'll still be able to make more).
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 01, 2018, 11:14:03 AM
The cap puts this pressure on.  Want to have a good team, you have to have a number of players on deals where their value exceeds the cost.  So yes, players can be put in adversarial place with fans if they shoot for the absolute most knowing it can impact the team composition.

I don't think McDavid at 13.25 is him shooting for the absolute most. I actually think it's pretty reasonable given the league's salary structure. Moreover, the difference between McDavid at 13.25 and 12.5 might not make a huge difference to McDavid, it's not like that 750k of cap space is likely to be a massive difference in how the Oilers do either.

At the end of the day though, I wouldn't blame fans for thinking this way at all... its not like McDavid, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander are really going to feel the difference of a couple of million a year.  They will all make over $50M in their careers MINIMUM.  None of us are asking Marner to sign for 2M a season.  We're saying make 6M instead of 8M... so 48M vs 64M on an 8-year deal.  Yeah, I'm not feeling bad about hoping that's how it plays out.  He'll be just fine making approximately 52M for the first 11 years of his career (ie, he'll still be able to make more).

I didn't say I blame fans or you should feel bad, I said it sucks that the cap creates this situation.

Fans can feel however they want about how much a player might miss 16 million dollars(or 8-ish million after taxes/agent costs) but I guess the trade-off may be that the players may feel less inclined to stick around when they don't have to.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 01, 2018, 11:21:17 AM
Ya I think that's about it.

Also generally agree with the cap argument you made. Although I personally enjoy spending a few min on cap friendly thinking through the options. But I'd prefer phone app logic puzzles and no cap, to cap puzzles and cap.

Another thing to think about, and this might very well be me spitballing here, is that we tend to think of negotiations as being pretty simple. The team has a AAV and term they want, the player has a AAV and term they want and they hopefully meet somewhere in the middle. For most players, I'd guess it does work that way.

But in a case like Nylander's, where he's certainly got a ton of potential but there are questions about his ceiling and to what extent he's really shown his potential, I wonder if it's not a situation where the Leafs might actually make him several offers. Like, one for 5 or 6 years or another for 7 or 8. Or even all four at different AAVs that represent how much they want to invest in his future and see how Nylander wants to play things. Nylander and his representation then might want to take some time to think over things and how they want to proceed and make a few counter-offers of their own.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 01, 2018, 11:43:37 AM
The cap puts this pressure on.  Want to have a good team, you have to have a number of players on deals where their value exceeds the cost.  So yes, players can be put in adversarial place with fans if they shoot for the absolute most knowing it can impact the team composition.

I don't think McDavid at 13.25 is him shooting for the absolute most. I actually think it's pretty reasonable given the league's salary structure. Moreover, the difference between McDavid at 13.25 and 12.5 might not make a huge difference to McDavid, it's not like that 750k of cap space is likely to be a massive difference in how the Oilers do either.

At the end of the day though, I wouldn't blame fans for thinking this way at all... its not like McDavid, Matthews, Marner, or Nylander are really going to feel the difference of a couple of million a year.  They will all make over $50M in their careers MINIMUM.  None of us are asking Marner to sign for 2M a season.  We're saying make 6M instead of 8M... so 48M vs 64M on an 8-year deal.  Yeah, I'm not feeling bad about hoping that's how it plays out.  He'll be just fine making approximately 52M for the first 11 years of his career (ie, he'll still be able to make more).

I didn't say I blame fans or you should feel bad, I said it sucks that the cap creates this situation.

Fans can feel however they want about how much a player might miss 16 million dollars(or 8-ish million after taxes/agent costs) but I guess the trade-off may be that the players may feel less inclined to stick around when they don't have to.

I don't disagree with anything you've said, was just pointlessly adding to the conversation.  The CAP is certainly the problem and it definitely has these consequences.

And yes, I hope Marner, Nylander, and Matthews sign for 1-2M less per year than most would peg their contract worth at.  If that means the players are less inclined to stick around when the don't have to (when they hit UFA in 6-8 years) then so be it.  I'd hope the multiple championships we've won in that time can convince them otherwise, but they will have earned the right to become UFA's and choose their path going forward.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 01, 2018, 11:51:02 AM
And yes, I hope Marner, Nylander, and Matthews sign for 1-2M less per year than most would peg their contract worth at.  If that means the players are less inclined to stick around when the don't have to (when they hit UFA in 6-8 years) then so be it.

Just to clarify, it's not just hoping they take less that I think is the issue. I think it's the bad reactions if they decide not to take less that creates an unfortunate situation. If our relationship with players is that transactional, where in our eyes they become bad people or bad teammates if they want to earn more than we'd like them to then it seems fairly unlikely that you're going to engender deeply warm feelings coming back the other way.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: azzurri63 on August 01, 2018, 01:12:07 PM
I trust Dubas when he said signing all 3 wouldn't be an issue but man some of the signings lately and rumours on what guys are asking I'm not liking what I'm seeing or hearing. If Dubas talked to the 3 and explained the Tavares signing and somehow convinced them to take a slight discount then all good. But I personally don't see the big 3 signing for less than 25 million. Only thing that keeps it under that is Nylander getting Pasternak numbers which I think is where he should be. If we can get him for around 6 then it's doable. The Eichel and Draisaitl contracts were a huge mistake as I don't think any player deserves those kind of numbers for a second contract unless you are absolutely elite ie McDavid. See what happens.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 01, 2018, 01:17:39 PM
And yes, I hope Marner, Nylander, and Matthews sign for 1-2M less per year than most would peg their contract worth at.  If that means the players are less inclined to stick around when the don't have to (when they hit UFA in 6-8 years) then so be it.

Just to clarify, it's not just hoping they take less that I think is the issue. I think it's the bad reactions if they decide not to take less that creates an unfortunate situation. If our relationship with players is that transactional, where in our eyes they become bad people or bad teammates if they want to earn more than we'd like them to then it seems fairly unlikely that you're going to engender deeply warm feelings coming back the other way.

For me personally, I'm not going to have a bad reaction of these guys get deals near their worth at all.  Even if they get more than that, I'm not going to perceive them as bad people or bad teammates.  Its just going to suck from a competitiveness standpoint when we can't add that other piece that would help bring a championship or we have to trade a good piece because their next contract won't fit.  I won't harbour bad feelings towards the players.  Its gonna be the same feeling you seem to have, which is that the salary cap sucks!
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on August 01, 2018, 01:22:46 PM
No contracts yet, you're dead to me Dubas
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Kaberle15 on August 06, 2018, 02:55:56 PM
1 thing that I would like the next CBA to include is either a luxury tax to keep 1-2 stars to max contract (see NBA model)
or the ability to buy cap space, ie 10 Mi over 5 years the team selling gets 50% as money.
50% of the Cap you are buying over time would be very nice to teams in need of money and to teams in need of the cap space. IN the example above, to buy 10mi x 5 years the team pays 5mi x 5 years to the team selling.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on August 22, 2018, 10:37:42 AM
Anyone thinking that the Leafs are trying to sign all 3 long term and want to announce the big 3 at the same time?  It's been so quiet on this front other than the occasional report of "talks are ongoing" that I've heard from Nylander and Matthews's camp.  Probably not realistic that they'd be able to keep all 3 contracts on the down low so as to announce them on the same day, but you never know.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 22, 2018, 10:41:35 AM
Anyone thinking that the Leafs are trying to sign all 3 long term and want to announce the big 3 at the same time?  It's been so quiet on this front other than the occasional report of "talks are ongoing" that I've heard from Nylander and Matthews's camp.  Probably not realistic that they'd be able to keep all 3 contracts on the down low so as to announce them on the same day, but you never know.

I think most of us are hoping for this, and I'd bet the Leafs would love to do all 3 deals now and have their financial picture long term figured out, but achieving that is another story. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Dappleganger on August 22, 2018, 11:03:39 AM
Anyone think that the Leafs should just say to AM, WN, and MM, here's $24m, divide it amongst yourselves however you see fit.

 ;D
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 22, 2018, 12:24:09 PM
Anyone think that the Leafs should just say to AM, WN, and MM, here's $24m, divide it amongst yourselves however you see fit.

 ;D

So essentially WN and MM would be saying, AM what do you want?  10? 11? 12?  Ok, we'll split the rest.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on August 22, 2018, 01:06:06 PM
Anyone think that the Leafs should just say to AM, WN, and MM, here's $24m, divide it amongst yourselves however you see fit.

 ;D

So essentially WN and MM would be saying, AM what do you want?  10? 11? 12?  Ok, we'll split the rest.

But youíre picking up the tab on all the Capri Sun.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bullfrog on August 22, 2018, 01:43:59 PM
Anyone thinking that the Leafs are trying to sign all 3 long term and want to announce the big 3 at the same time?  It's been so quiet on this front other than the occasional report of "talks are ongoing" that I've heard from Nylander and Matthews's camp.  Probably not realistic that they'd be able to keep all 3 contracts on the down low so as to announce them on the same day, but you never know.

I'm not thinking that at all. Sometimes things are just simple: they're taking their time to get the right contract for Nylander and they'll deal with Matthews and Marner during the upcoming season or off-season.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on August 22, 2018, 01:59:09 PM
Anyone thinking that the Leafs are trying to sign all 3 long term and want to announce the big 3 at the same time?  It's been so quiet on this front other than the occasional report of "talks are ongoing" that I've heard from Nylander and Matthews's camp.  Probably not realistic that they'd be able to keep all 3 contracts on the down low so as to announce them on the same day, but you never know.

I'm not thinking that at all. Sometimes things are just simple: they're taking their time to get the right contract for Nylander and they'll deal with Matthews and Marner during the upcoming season or off-season.

But it's already been reported that Matthews's contract extension talks have begun.  Matthews said it himself.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 22, 2018, 02:31:14 PM
Anyone thinking that the Leafs are trying to sign all 3 long term and want to announce the big 3 at the same time?  It's been so quiet on this front other than the occasional report of "talks are ongoing" that I've heard from Nylander and Matthews's camp.  Probably not realistic that they'd be able to keep all 3 contracts on the down low so as to announce them on the same day, but you never know.

Not to ask a dumb question but why would the Leafs want that? Or the players?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on August 22, 2018, 02:48:43 PM
Anyone thinking that the Leafs are trying to sign all 3 long term and want to announce the big 3 at the same time?  It's been so quiet on this front other than the occasional report of "talks are ongoing" that I've heard from Nylander and Matthews's camp.  Probably not realistic that they'd be able to keep all 3 contracts on the down low so as to announce them on the same day, but you never know.

Not to ask a dumb question but why would the Leafs want that? Or the players?

Leafs would want it to settle any outstanding questions that are bound to arise if only Nylander's contract gets announced and the other 2 go into their final contract years.  It's bound to be a talking point until they all get done.

For the players there's no reason to have it announced at the same time. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 22, 2018, 03:17:27 PM
Leafs would want it to settle any outstanding questions that are bound to arise if only Nylander's contract gets announced and the other 2 go into their final contract years.  It's bound to be a talking point until they all get done.

I'm still not really following. What questions? It seems like if any of them are unsigned, or at least the deals aren't announced, the questions are fundamentally the same. How does Nylander signing change the questions they'd be asked re: the other two.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bullfrog on August 22, 2018, 03:46:50 PM
Leafs would want it to settle any outstanding questions that are bound to arise if only Nylander's contract gets announced and the other 2 go into their final contract years.  It's bound to be a talking point until they all get done.

I'm still not really following. What questions? It seems like if any of them are unsigned, or at least the deals aren't announced, the questions are fundamentally the same. How does Nylander signing change the questions they'd be asked re: the other two.

It'd be a cute story?  :-\
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: L K on August 22, 2018, 05:08:30 PM
Leafs would want it to settle any outstanding questions that are bound to arise if only Nylander's contract gets announced and the other 2 go into their final contract years.  It's bound to be a talking point until they all get done.

I'm still not really following. What questions? It seems like if any of them are unsigned, or at least the deals aren't announced, the questions are fundamentally the same. How does Nylander signing change the questions they'd be asked re: the other two.

Only thing I could think would be that the team would still be answering "can you sign Matthews/Marner questions" from the media but I doubt that Dubas really cares.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 22, 2018, 05:48:11 PM
It'd be a cute story?  :-\

Which I wouldn't necessarily dismiss as teams have done it before(I'm thinking Kane/Toews) but that doesn't really seem to be a good fit here as everyone will presumably be making different amounts and for different term.

I'm still not really following. What questions? It seems like if any of them are unsigned, or at least the deals aren't announced, the questions are fundamentally the same. How does Nylander signing change the questions they'd be asked re: the other two.

Only thing I could think would be that the team would still be answering "can you sign Matthews/Marner questions" from the media but I doubt that Dubas really cares.

And beyond that, it's hard to imagine Nylander signing for an amount that would drastically change that answer.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on August 22, 2018, 06:25:01 PM
Leafs would want it to settle any outstanding questions that are bound to arise if only Nylander's contract gets announced and the other 2 go into their final contract years.  It's bound to be a talking point until they all get done.

I'm still not really following. What questions? It seems like if any of them are unsigned, or at least the deals aren't announced, the questions are fundamentally the same. How does Nylander signing change the questions they'd be asked re: the other two.
Could be a distraction throughout the season if both Matthews and Marner are unsigned. Would continue to be a talking point especially if both are putting up career best seasons. It would be better to put the contracts on the books so there's no lingering questions about how they'll all fit under the cap and the team can focus on hockey.   

Announcing all 3 on the same day would just be a great media day, Leafs lock up their young drafted core stars and everyone feels good pre-season starting.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 22, 2018, 06:42:27 PM
Could be a distraction throughout the season if both Matthews and Marner are unsigned. Would continue to be a talking point especially if both are putting up career best seasons. It would be better to put the contracts on the books so there's no lingering questions about how they'll all fit under the cap and the team can focus on hockey. 

But if that's true that's an incentive to get them all signed ASAP(or at least to get them signed before the season begins), not to announce them all at once. 

And, like we've said elsewhere in this thread, signing them before the season isn't simple like that. Sure, contracts could be an issue during the year but the flip side to that is that you might have a situation where Marner and Matthews want to get paid based on the idea that they have a big third year anyway and the Leafs would have to negotiate with them on that basis.

Honestly, strip it all away and the only real thing you're left with is that if they announce all three deals at once is that it might be fun for fans which, true or not, makes me think it's not all that high a priority.   
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 06, 2018, 11:26:28 AM
An interesting stat here that I hope Nylander's agent doesn't know about:

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Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: nutman on September 06, 2018, 05:12:04 PM
I hope he gets with the program and does a deal that helps the team, like Tavares did.  I can see Mitch and Austin doing it.  Nylander worries me as I think him and his agent think he has earned more then he has. Trust me he had better be on Board. As I want a cup and I hope greedy players don't stop it from happining.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 06, 2018, 05:32:40 PM

The important thing is to form hard opinions based on absolutely no facts. Sports Talk Radio needs to fill air time.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 06, 2018, 05:46:50 PM
I hope he gets with the program and does a deal that helps the team, like Tavares did.  I can see Mitch and Austin doing it.  Nylander worries me as I think him and his agent think he has earned more then he has. Trust me he had better be on Board. As I want a cup and I hope greedy players don't stop it from happining.

I think it's probably best to not pass judgement on Nylander, or any player, as negotiations are often not about greed, but about finding a middle ground that both sides can live with.

Because Nylander hasn't signed doesn't mean he's being greedy, just like it doesn't mean that the Leafs are being greedy.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 06, 2018, 06:57:44 PM
So Dreger says he believes Nylander will miss the start of training camp - based on what I have to assume he's got his usual "out of his ass" source
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 06, 2018, 07:10:58 PM
I hope he gets with the program and does a deal that helps the team, like Tavares did.  I can see Mitch and Austin doing it.  Nylander worries me as I think him and his agent think he has earned more then he has. Trust me he had better be on Board. As I want a cup and I hope greedy players don't stop it from happining.

This is truly, truly amazing since pretty much everyone accepts that Marner will get more than Nylander does even though they essentially have the same value.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on September 07, 2018, 09:12:13 AM
This is truly, truly amazing since pretty much everyone accepts that Marner will get more than Nylander does even though they essentially have the same value.

Nah, I can't be on board with the last part of that opinion.

I'll bet if you gave all the other teams the choice of either in a trade, the majority would take Marner.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 07, 2018, 03:12:07 PM
This is truly, truly amazing since pretty much everyone accepts that Marner will get more than Nylander does even though they essentially have the same value.

Nah, I can't be on board with the last part of that opinion.

I'll bet if you gave all the other teams the choice of either in a trade, the majority would take Marner.

I am a Marner fanboy, but I'd bet more would choose Nylander if only because he can play Center- the much more valuable position.

As for their value.  Yes, their value today should be pretty much on par.  However, Marner has one more year to increase his value before signing his deal. 

And because he's signing one year later, with the cap probably going up, you can also state that Marner should get a smidge more money if they sign the same contract length.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: leafsjunkie on September 07, 2018, 03:41:57 PM
This is truly, truly amazing since pretty much everyone accepts that Marner will get more than Nylander does even though they essentially have the same value.

Nah, I can't be on board with the last part of that opinion.

I'll bet if you gave all the other teams the choice of either in a trade, the majority would take Marner.

I am a Marner fanboy, but I'd bet more would choose Nylander if only because he can play Center- the much more valuable position.

As for their value.  Yes, their value today should be pretty much on par.  However, Marner has one more year to increase his value before signing his deal. 

And because he's signing one year later, with the cap probably going up, you can also state that Marner should get a smidge more money if they sign the same contract length.

Nylanders first year, where he played 22 games on that garbage team doesn't help.

Marner had the benefit of a better team, his first two seasons.

I like both players, but if I HAD to trade one (which I hope never happens), I would trade Marner.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 07, 2018, 03:50:10 PM

I think they're different enough players that most teams would primarily be motivated by which guy is a better fit rather than a difference in value.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 07, 2018, 04:00:41 PM

I think they're different enough players that most teams would primarily be motivated by which guy is a better fit rather than a difference in value.

Hence my point about Nylander playing C.  There are very few teams who are stacked enough at C to choose the pure winger.   

If the fit comes down to "intangibles" discussion or personality or nation of birth then I'm not going to theorize what different teams would do *cough many NHL GM's are stupid cough*
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 07, 2018, 04:05:35 PM
Hence my point about Nylander playing C.  There are very few teams who are stacked enough at C to choose the pure winger.

Maybe and I agree that Nylander's versatility makes him pretty valuable but I wonder that if a team is relatively set at C(say, in having 2 guys they like as much if not more than Nylander) then they wouldn't look at which winger they'd prefer if the plan would be to use Nylander there anyway.

But really what I personally meant by fit was just their play styles and how it might well with the other guys a team has.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 07, 2018, 05:25:49 PM
If the Nylander camp digs in their heels, and they're starting the season, what's the plan "B"...do you trade him or pay him?  Of course, I'm assuming that they're a fair distance apart here. 

I ask because I think that the Nylander deal is really setting the tone for negotiations with a few other pretty important pieces over the next year. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 07, 2018, 05:55:02 PM
If the Nylander camp digs in their heels, and they're starting the season, what's the plan "B"...do you trade him or pay him?  Of course, I'm assuming that they're a fair distance apart here. 

I ask because I think that the Nylander deal is really setting the tone for negotiations with a few other pretty important pieces over the next year. 

I think worst case scenario here is that they settle on a 2 year contract. Sorta like Kucherov. He signed his 3 year, $4.766mil AAV deal days before Tampa's season started in 2016.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: jdh1 on September 07, 2018, 07:00:48 PM
Might as well trade Nylander for two 1st,s and save a protected spot for another player for the Seattle expansion.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on September 07, 2018, 07:19:22 PM
If the Nylander camp digs in their heels, and they're starting the season, what's the plan "B"...do you trade him or pay him?  Of course, I'm assuming that they're a fair distance apart here. 

I ask because I think that the Nylander deal is really setting the tone for negotiations with a few other pretty important pieces over the next year.

I think the leafs have so much firepower amongst their forwards that they can afford to be very patient and simply wait him out.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 12, 2018, 09:23:10 AM
In my heart of hearts I believe the Nordic god will sign today.

(https://data.whicdn.com/images/270775206/original.gif)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: L K on September 12, 2018, 12:41:53 PM
In my heart of hearts I believe the Nordic god will sign today.

(https://data.whicdn.com/images/270775206/original.gif)

If your heart is wrong, you are dead to me.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 12, 2018, 01:10:49 PM
In my heart of hearts I believe the Nordic god will sign today.

(https://data.whicdn.com/images/270775206/original.gif)

If your heart is wrong, you are dead to me.


Someone needs to setup a twitter bot that just sends a message to Nylander every 5 minutes.

Did you sign yet?
...
...
Did you sign yet?
...
...
Did you sign yet?
...
...
Did you sign yet?


And on the other side, one that sends a message to Dubas every 5 mintues.

Did you sign Nylander yet?
...
...
Did you sign Nylander yet?
...
...
Did you sign Nylander yet?
...
...
Congrats on the promotion BTW.
...
...

That last one is because we aren't neanderthals.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 12, 2018, 01:43:11 PM
In my heart of hearts I believe the Nordic god will sign today.

(https://data.whicdn.com/images/270775206/original.gif)

If your heart is wrong, you are dead to me.

When my heart is wrong, I check my gut, and that's never wrong.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 12, 2018, 02:02:49 PM

Dreger: this is literally meaningless information, but I'm going to provide it anyway
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 02:04:54 PM

It wouldn't surprise me.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 12, 2018, 02:11:21 PM

Dreger: this is literally meaningless information, but I'm going to provide it anyway

Really, why wouldn't you ask for that?  This is a negotiation after all.  If you think you are worth 7 or 7.5M and you know the team is coming in at Ehlers/Pastrnak numbers (6M-6.6M), you'd probably start above 8M.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 12, 2018, 02:19:58 PM
Really, why wouldn't you ask for that?  This is a negotiation after all.  If you think you are worth 7 or 7.5M and you know the team is coming in at Ehlers/Pastrnak numbers (6M-6.6M), you'd probably start above 8M.

Well, in that case, why not ask for $10m?

As a guy that negotiates for a living, your goal in negotiations is to find some middle ground, and antagonizing the other party usually doesn't make things better.

The same could be said of the Leafs if they went in at $4.5m.

I doubt this Dregger thing is real, and I'm sure if there was an exorbitant ask, it was flushed away pretty quickly.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 12, 2018, 02:24:19 PM
Really, why wouldn't you ask for that?  This is a negotiation after all.  If you think you are worth 7 or 7.5M and you know the team is coming in at Ehlers/Pastrnak numbers (6M-6.6M), you'd probably start above 8M.

Well, in that case, why not ask for $10m?

As a guy that negotiates for a living, your goal in negotiations is to find some middle ground, and antagonizing the other party usually doesn't make things better.

The same could be said of the Leafs if they went in at $4.5m.

I doubt this Dregger thing is real, and I'm sure if there was an exorbitant ask, it was flushed away pretty quickly.

Because an 8M ask isn't totally out of line if you feel you can compare yourself to Draisatl.  10M would be, as Nylander cannot bring a good enough case forward that he's equal to Eichel.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 02:26:00 PM
Well, in that case, why not ask for $10m?

As a guy that negotiates for a living, your goal in negotiations is to find some middle ground, and antagonizing the other party usually doesn't make things better.

Did you not read the post you're responding to? If Nylander is working on the assumption that he's worth 7 and the Leafs come in at 6 then how is 8 antagonistic?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 12, 2018, 02:46:00 PM
Well, in that case, why not ask for $10m?

As a guy that negotiates for a living, your goal in negotiations is to find some middle ground, and antagonizing the other party usually doesn't make things better.

Did you not read the post you're responding to? If Nylander is working on the assumption that he's worth 7 and the Leafs come in at 6 then how is 8 antagonistic?

Is that first part a rhetorical question, or are you actually asking me if I read the post?

The key word in the second part of your statement above is "If". 

And if Nylander feels he's worth $8m, then his ask was totally acceptable...to him.

I don't know who feels what in this negotiation, and I have zero information, but I stick by my statement that either party throwing out very high, or very low numbers usually doesn't help expedite negotiations.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 02:53:32 PM
The key word in the second part of your statement above is "If". 

Indeed and an especially eagle-eyed observer might have somehow sussed that was the entire working premise of the post you were responding to:

Really, why wouldn't you ask for that?  This is a negotiation after all.  If you think you are worth 7 or 7.5M and you know the team is coming in at Ehlers/Pastrnak numbers (6M-6.6M), you'd probably start above 8M.

So the answer to why 8 and not 10 is because in the hypothetical it is equidistant on Nylander's part and the team's part to what Nylander thinks the deal ultimately should be.


And if Nylander feels he's worth $8m, then his ask was totally acceptable...to him.

If he feels he's worth 8 and he asked for 8 then his ask wasn't just acceptable, it's leaving him no room to negotiate. I don't negotiate for a living but even I know you should probably start out a little higher than what you ultimately would agree to.

I don't know who feels what in this negotiation, and I have zero information, but I stick by my statement that either party throwing out very high, or very low numbers usually doesn't help expedite negotiations.

Then, again, one might infer that at issue is a disagreement about what constitutes a "very high" number in this case, rather than the assumption that the people negotiating Nylander's contract aren't quite as savvy as you think they should be.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on September 12, 2018, 03:37:00 PM
Draisaitl had a career points per game lower then Nylanders at the time when he signed his contract. The cap was also lower... stupid Edmonton.

Eichel is currently a class above Nylander.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: bustaheims on September 12, 2018, 03:47:00 PM
Dreger: this is literally meaningless information, but I'm going to provide it anyway

Yup. I'm gonna take it with the largest amount of the saltiest salt I can safely ingest.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on September 12, 2018, 04:03:32 PM
I am not convinced the cap will infinitely grow. I am rooting for Dubas in this one. I want to see something signed starting with a 6. Wait it out and get him signed at a decent number. Although I don't like it, the Leafs have the depth to wait it out.

$6M would be awesome, $7M would hurt and $8M would be hard to swallow.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 05:03:06 PM
I wonder why each team has to keep paying too much because one team signed a bad contact?  Why can't the team counter with Scheifele?? 
Draisaitl had a career points per game lower then Nylanders at the time when he signed his contract. The cap was also lower... stupid Edmonton.

Eichel is currently a class above Nylander.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 05:07:08 PM
I wonder why each team has to keep paying too much because one team signed a bad contact?  Why can't the team counter with Scheifele?? 

Teams can counter with whatever they want. That said, the Leafs are always going to be dealing with the reality that it's much easier for Nylander to find another team than it is for them to find another Nylander.

Also, Nylander is a full year younger and with a significantly better career PPG than Scheifele was when he signed his extension. So it's maybe not the best comparison for the Leafs even if they did want to go that route.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 12, 2018, 05:07:38 PM
I wonder why each team has to keep paying too much because one team signed a bad contact?  Why can't the team counter with Scheifele?? 
Draisaitl had a career points per game lower then Nylanders at the time when he signed his contract. The cap was also lower... stupid Edmonton.

Eichel is currently a class above Nylander.
Let's lots of comparables better than Draisaitl. Ehlers, and Pastrnak being 2.

At least we haven't heard any "official" complaining from the agent or anything which would signal things aren't good. Once they start leaking messages through the press you know things aren't going well and they're trying to apply external pressure. The silence tells me they're at least working through it and it'll get done amicably
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 05:31:21 PM
Let's lots of comparables better than Draisaitl. Ehlers, and Pastrnak being 2.

I can see why the Leafs would be eager to use the Pastrnak comparison but I don't see the Ehlers comparison as being all that different than Draisaitl. To my mind that still puts Nylander in the 6.5-7.5 range even if you want to discount the idea that Nylander is worth more in Toronto.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 12, 2018, 05:48:40 PM
Let's lots of comparables better than Draisaitl. Ehlers, and Pastrnak being 2.

I can see why the Leafs would be eager to use the Pastrnak comparison but I don't see the Ehlers comparison as being all that different than Draisaitl. To my mind that still puts Nylander in the 6.5-7.5 range even if you want to discount the idea that Nylander is worth more in Toronto.
How so? Draisaitl and Ehlers both signed last year, one was 8x8.5 while one was 7x6. Ehlers's stats are closer to Nylander's than either Draisaitl or Pastrnak and he only signed for $6M. Even with the cap going up since last year the absolute top of Nylander's cap should be $6.5
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 05:55:29 PM
I think the Leafs have all of the leverage in this case, Nylander can't just leave.
I wonder why each team has to keep paying too much because one team signed a bad contact?  Why can't the team counter with Scheifele?? 

Teams can counter with whatever they want. That said, the Leafs are always going to be dealing with the reality that it's much easier for Nylander to find another team than it is for them to find another Nylander.

Also, Nylander is a full year younger and with a significantly better career PPG than Scheifele was when he signed his extension. So it's maybe not the best comparison for the Leafs even if they did want to go that route.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 06:43:09 PM
How so? Draisaitl and Ehlers both signed last year, one was 8x8.5 while one was 7x6. Ehlers's stats are closer to Nylander's than either Draisaitl or Pastrnak and he only signed for $6M. Even with the cap going up since last year the absolute top of Nylander's cap should be $6.5

Well, "stats" are are a pretty broad concern. But ok, let's compare the year Ehlers had just had when he signed his extension with the year Nylander just had.

Ehlers: 25 g, 39 a, 64 p

Nylander: 21 g, 40 a, 61 p

On the surface, very comparable I would agree. I think with a little digging though there's very real reason to think of Nylander's year as better. For starters, there's ice time. Ehlers did that getting roughly a minute more ice time per game and, for the season, getting roughly 33% more PP time than Nylander did.

Then there's linemates. In 2016-2017 Ehlers split his time sort of evenly between three different groupings. There was Wheeler and Scheifele, Laine and Scheifele and Laine and Little.

I think we could both agree that the first two there are slightly better than Matthews and Hyman and the second one is, at the very least, comparable.

Of course, that forgets that Matthews missed 20 games last year. In those 20 games Nylander bounced around between Kadri and Komarov and Marleau and Hyman. So for at least a quarter of the season I think it's fair to say Ehlers was playing on a significantly better line.

(this also applies to the PP where Ehlers was with Laine, Scheifele and Wheeler while Nylander was with Matthews, Marleau and Komarov/Brown)

So offensively, I really think you have to give a fair edge to Nylander there.

Then there are the peripheral numbers. Possession numbers, as I understand them, are pretty close. I'm not much for +/- but Nylander was a +20 and Ehlers a +1. Ehlers, who was used very much as a traditional wing, only took 4 face-offs all season and lost all of them. Nylander took 650 face-offs and acquitted himself pretty well for a young player, winning 51.4% of them. Nylander followed it up with a not-great playoffs but he still scored one more playoff goal than Ehlers ever has.

So I think generally speaking Nylander had a reasonably better year. Definitely enough that I think he has a fair case for more money than Ehlers even before factoring in the inflation of the cap.

But I think it's the last point about face-offs that's the bigger issue. Nylander is, arguably, playing out of position. From some of what we've seen of him, I have some real confidence that he can not only be a C, but that he can handle the position in the face-off circle and in all three zones.

I've made this point before but to me it's a case of the Leafs trying to have their cake and eat it too here. You can't choose to play someone who's maybe more of a natural C on the wing because it helps the team and then when it's time to negotiate a contract balk at paying him C money because you chose to play him on the wing.

Or, I mean, you can certainly try to do that but I don't know how that would fly with a smart agent.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 06:46:26 PM
I think the Leafs have all of the leverage in this case, Nylander can't just leave.

That "leverage" really just comes in the form of being able to match an offer sheet. And if Nylander were to sign an 8 million dollar offer sheet somewhere the compensation for the Leafs if they didn't match would only be a 1st, 2nd and 3rd so I think Nylander would be pretty confident that they'd match.

So I don't really see it as a lot of leverage. Especially when losing Nylander would be a lot more damaging to the Leafs than it would be to Nylander.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 06:55:16 PM
If I was GM and someone signed Nylander to an $8 million offer sheet I would take the picks and move on, the Leafs would have trouble affording him at that price.
I think the Leafs have all of the leverage in this case, Nylander can't just leave.

That "leverage" really just comes in the form of being able to match an offer sheet. And if Nylander were to sign an 8 million dollar offer sheet somewhere the compensation for the Leafs if they didn't match would only be a 1st, 2nd and 3rd so I think Nylander would be pretty confident that they'd match.

So I don't really see it as a lot of leverage. Especially when losing Nylander would be a lot more damaging to the Leafs than it would be to Nylander.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 07:01:08 PM
If I was GM and someone signed Nylander to an $8 million offer sheet I would take the picks and move on, the Leafs would have trouble affording him at that price.

Even if it's true that the Leafs couldn't afford Nylander at 8, and I'm not sure it is, it certainly wouldn't be true until next year. In which case I think it'd be much smarter for the Leafs to match the offer sheet and then trade him next year when I think you could do much better than that collection of picks, especially when the Leafs would have no control over what team they got those picks from.

Although in either case, Nylander gets his 8m a year and the Leafs would have trouble recouping fair value so...not much in the way of leverage.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 07:04:56 PM
I think we would have already seen an offer sheet if one was coming so I will stick to my assertion that the Leafs have the leverage and Nylander really has little ability to do anything about it. Interesting thought on the match and trade, it comes with some risk though. 
If I was GM and someone signed Nylander to an $8 million offer sheet I would take the picks and move on, the Leafs would have trouble affording him at that price.

Even if it's true that the Leafs couldn't afford Nylander at 8, and I'm not sure it is, it certainly wouldn't be true until next year. In which case I think it'd be much smarter for the Leafs to match the offer sheet and then trade him next year when I think you could do much better than that collection of picks, especially when the Leafs would have no control over what team they got those picks from.

Although in either case, Nylander gets his 8m a year and the Leafs would have trouble recouping fair value so...not much in the way of leverage.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 07:14:21 PM
I think we would have already seen an offer sheet if one was coming...

The problem with that line of thinking is that it assumes that offer sheets are unilateral actions on the part of other teams that are likely to come unsolicited. I think it's probably far more likely that teams wouldn't make that offer unless they knew that a player was serious about signing one.

Luckily, so far, it doesn't look like Nylander wants to go in that route but I'm pretty confident that if he did, and other teams thought the Leafs wouldn't match an offer in that 6-8 million range, that he could get one pretty quickly.

That said though, I think the fact that we haven't heard about Nylander wanting to explore other avenues means he's probably not that far apart and everyone's still fairly optimistic a deal can get done.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 07:21:52 PM
Almost half the teams in the League don't have the picks required to make an offer sheet. I'm not sure there are many teams able to make the offer who own their picks, have the Cap Space, and the need to step up for Nylander. Combine the 3 and it's easy to see why offer sheets rarely happen.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 07:32:18 PM
Almost half the teams in the League don't have the picks required to make an offer sheet.

I think there are enough that make it a real possibility. Vegas, Colorado, Vancouver(who definitely will have an opening), Montreal, New Jersey(they'd have to reacquire their 3rd round pick but that's doable), Carolina, Arizona(although that seems unlikely).

And those are just the teams that have that cap space free and clear. If you include teams who could pretty easily free up the cap space if they thought Nylander was legitimately available you're probably be looking at anywhere from 10-12 teams.

I've made the case before but I really think the reason you don't see offer sheets is that they don't work. The compensation is too low. Teams are much better off just matching.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 07:37:30 PM
So it looks like we now agree, there won't be an offer sheet and the Leafs hold the leverage.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 07:43:55 PM
So it looks like we now agree, there won't be an offer sheet and the Leafs hold the leverage.

Well, no. I think there won't be an offer sheet precisely because the Leafs, or any team in this situation, don't have a lot of leverage.

But even then, I certainly wouldn't put it past the Leafs to screw this up.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 07:47:03 PM
I'm having trouble understanding how an offer sheet is extremely rare, Nylander can't just leave, and the Leafs don't have leverage?? They can wait and Nylander can do nothing.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 12, 2018, 08:01:20 PM
This Nylander thing seems to be consuming an alarming amount of the universe's oxygen supply. #gaspingfor29
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 08:08:04 PM
I'm having trouble understanding how an offer sheet is extremely rare, Nylander can't just leave, and the Leafs don't have leverage?? They can wait and Nylander can do nothing.

Well, there are a few reasons. But for starters, I mean, the idea that Nylander can't just leave isn't technically true. He can't leave for another NHL team, sure, but he could play in Europe.

Which feeds into the next thing. The Leafs are very badly served by just waiting around. Both in terms of just the actual loss of Nylander from the hockey team but also in terms of the distraction it would be for the club and the guys still around going forward. So just "waiting it out" isn't really in their interests. Nylander playing in Europe is much better for Nylander than it is for the Leafs.

Because of that, like I said, the reason offer sheets are rare is because I think the NHL has become so risk averse that teams would match them almost automatically. Teams are very unlikely to be in the situation Boston was with Kessel and now budget for valuable RFA's being a necessary sign because as I mentioned earlier, teams tend to need their impact RFA's more than those RFA's need that specific team.

As a result offer sheets only serve an inflationary purpose for RFA's around the league with no real chance of player movement. If that changed, if teams started thinking that a 1st and a 3rd round pick were more valuable than an RFA worth a 6 million dollar contract, I think you'd see far more offer sheets.

It's like buying anything valuable. If you have a painting that you value considerably more than what people are offering you than eventually offers are going to become rare because you're not selling at the price they're willing(or in the case of RFA compensation, able) to offer. If it becomes known that you're willing to sell, offers would become more common. NHL teams have effectively made it clear that valuable RFA's are not on the market, so teams aren't bothering to make offers.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 12, 2018, 08:40:58 PM
This Nylander thing seems to be consuming an alarming amount of the universe's oxygen supply. #gaspingfor29
The hell else we gonna talk about? Freddie the Goat, ready for prime time?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 08:41:09 PM
So Nylander is left with 4 choices, sit out, find a team to sign offer sheet that rarely exists, accept Leafs offer, or go to Europe for probably half of Leaf's offer at best??  The Leaf's season does not depend on Nylander playing. I'm sure they want to sign him but it will be on their terms as the Leafs hold the leverage no matter how you slice it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 08:55:30 PM
So Nylander is left with 4 choices, sit out, find a team to sign offer sheet that rarely exists, accept Leafs offer, or go to Europe for probably half of Leaf's offer at best??

Well, again, it's about the "rarely exists thing". It rarely exists because teams wouldn't hesitate to match them. If the Leafs let it be known they wouldn't match, I think that would change in a hurry. That's the key point here and, as we've already discussed, a team offer sheeting Nylander would put the Leafs in a bad situation where they would have a very tough decision to make.

It's like saying that because nobody tries to buy your house for 15 dollars nobody would want to buy your house for 15 dollars. The lack of offers isn't a reflection of a lack of interest, it's in knowing that the offer wouldn't be accepted.

And while the Leafs season doesn't entirely depend on Nylander, I think it's fair to say that as it stands right now they've got a tough road ahead of them to even get out of their division, let alone get any further than that even if Nylander signs. So significantly weakening your team over a relatively small amount of money probably isn't a decision they want to make either.

But even beyond that, as was discussed earlier in the thread, for all the talk about AAV it's just as likely that this is a disagreement about term.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 08:59:29 PM
You are seeming to be arguing with me about things I didn't say?? I don't care why there aren't offer sheets, it only matters to this discussion that it is extremely unlikely Nylander will get one. That leaves him with almost zero leverage to force the Leafs to a contract they aren't comfortable with. The Leafs however can play hockey this season without Nylander and the chance of him ever recovering the lost revenue is slim. The Leafs hold almost all of the leverage. It really is only an offer sheet that can change the leverage.
So Nylander is left with 4 choices, sit out, find a team to sign offer sheet that rarely exists, accept Leafs offer, or go to Europe for probably half of Leaf's offer at best??

Well, again, it's about the "rarely exists thing". It rarely exists because teams wouldn't hesitate to match them. If the Leafs let it be known they wouldn't match, I think that would change in a hurry. That's the key point here and, as we've already discussed, a team offer sheeting Nylander would put the Leafs in a bad situation where they would have a very tough decision to make.

It's like saying that because nobody tries to buy your house for 15 dollars nobody would want to buy your house for 15 dollars. The lack of offers isn't a reflection of a lack of interest, it's in knowing that the offer wouldn't be accepted.

And while the Leafs season doesn't entirely depend on Nylander, I think it's fair to say that as it stands right now they've got a tough road ahead of them to even get out of their division, let alone get any further than that even if Nylander signs. So significantly weakening your team over a relatively small amount of money probably isn't a decision they want to make either.

But even beyond that, as was discussed earlier in the thread, for all the talk about AAV it's just as likely that this is a disagreement about term.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 09:11:58 PM
I don't care why there aren't offer sheets, it only matters to this discussion that it is extremely unlikely Nylander will get one.

Well, you should care why there aren't more offer sheets because the reason is a direct reflection on the actual power balance between teams and their RFA's. Like I keep saying, offer sheets are only unlikely on the condition that the Leafs would probably match them and so long as Nylander and his agents know that the Leafs would match just about any offer sheet they were to get, it does give them the upper hand in negotiations.

It's why so many players around the league are signing much bigger money second contracts than they used to. It's not because those teams aren't good at negotiating deals, it's because RFA's have that kind of leverage.

Otherwise how do you explain Jack Eichel getting 10 million dollars a year? Because Terry Pegula just loves giving money away? Draisaitl got 8.5 million because Darryl Katz is just such a generous soul?

No. It's because those RFA's had the leverage to negotiate those contracts. The lack of offer sheets is a reflection of the situation, not the cause of it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 09:16:06 PM
You think the lack of offer sheets is driving up salaries??  Management with zero confidence caused those stupid contracts.
 
I don't care why there aren't offer sheets, it only matters to this discussion that it is extremely unlikely Nylander will get one.

Well, you should care why there aren't more offer sheets because the reason is a direct reflection on the actual power balance between teams and their RFA's. Like I keep saying, offer sheets are only unlikely on the condition that the Leafs would probably match them and so long as Nylander and his agents know that the Leafs would match just about any offer sheet they were to get, it does give them the upper hand in negotiations.

It's why so many players around the league are signing much bigger money second contracts than they used to. It's not because those teams aren't good at negotiating deals, it's because RFA's have that kind of leverage.

Otherwise how do you explain Jack Eichel getting 10 million dollars a year? Because Terry Pegula just loves giving money away? Draisaitl got 8.5 million because Darryl Katz is just such a generous soul?

No. It's because those RFA's had the leverage to negotiate those contracts. The lack of offer sheets is a reflection of the situation, not the cause of it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 09:24:34 PM
You think the lack of offer sheets is driving up salaries??

No. I genuinely don't know how much clearer I can make it. The lack of offer sheets is not the cause of the power balance between players and teams. The lack of offer sheets is itself caused by the fact that RFA compensation is so low that teams are effectively forced to match rather than "sell", for lack of a better term, an incredibly valuable asset at a very low price.

Salaries are going up for RFA's because teams recognize their value and the self-defeating nature of trying to nickel and dime them.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 09:30:37 PM
So teams are giving in to RFA's because they might have to match an offer sheet that is highly unlikely to  happen?? I think I will stick with Buffalo and Edmonton being poorly run teams from the last example. And hopefully Dubas sticks to the number he is comfortable with as there is little Nylander can do about it with little leverage.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 09:43:28 PM
So teams are giving in to RFA's because they might have to match an offer sheet that is highly unlikely to  happen??

Sweet christmas, no. OFFER SHEETS ARE NOT THE CAUSE. RFA's don't have leverage because of potential offer sheets, RFA's have leverage because they are very good hockey players and very good hockey players are in short supply and teams don't have easy avenues to replace them. Hockey teams also tend to be very risk-averse. What if Nylander sits out all season and, in addition to not signing Nylander being a constant topic of conversation both in the organization and in the media, the Leafs then narrowly lose to Boston or Tampa? Would that look good for Dubas? Would that make Marner or Matthews feel really excited about this management team? Most GMs are not going to choose to make their teams significantly worse to save small amounts of money.

Those are precisely the sorts of scenarios that most NHL GMs desperately want to avoid. That's why deals get signed, that's why the salary structure is what it is. There is no upside in being the team that let their relationship with a very good young player sour and hurt their team's chances as a result.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 12, 2018, 09:46:53 PM
I don't care why there aren't offer sheets, it only matters to this discussion that it is extremely unlikely Nylander will get one.

Well, you should care why there aren't more offer sheets because the reason is a direct reflection on the actual power balance between teams and their RFA's. Like I keep saying, offer sheets are only unlikely on the condition that the Leafs would probably match them and so long as Nylander and his agents know that the Leafs would match just about any offer sheet they were to get, it does give them the upper hand in negotiations.

It's why so many players around the league are signing much bigger money second contracts than they used to. It's not because those teams aren't good at negotiating deals, it's because RFA's have that kind of leverage.

Otherwise how do you explain Jack Eichel getting 10 million dollars a year? Because Terry Pegula just loves giving money away? Draisaitl got 8.5 million because Darryl Katz is just such a generous soul?

No. It's because those RFA's had the leverage to negotiate those contracts. The lack of offer sheets is a reflection of the situation, not the cause of it.
You can cite Draisaitl and Eichel all you want, but those are unique circumstances. Eichel is the only thing going in Buffalo and was the #2 pick overall I'm the McJesus year. Many people panned the Draisaitl contract saying that Chiarell overpayed.

If this RFA leverage is so prevalent, how do you account for the reasonable cap hits of better Nylander comparables like Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Forsberg, Ehlers, Benn and even Gaudreau?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 09:48:15 PM
I woukd think it is better for the Management to stick to their plan and ensure they have money to remain competitive rather than giving in to a player who has no leverage. Think more Yzerman and less Chiarelli. The next players up to sign will maybe see the bigger picture and be less what about me. And what small amount?? Today's talk has Nylander asking for $8 million and Leaf's s offer around $6 million.
That's kinda big in a Cap world.
So teams are giving in to RFA's because they might have to match an offer sheet that is highly unlikely to  happen??

Sweet christmas, no. OFFER SHEETS ARE NOT THE CAUSE. RFA's don't have leverage because of potential offer sheets, RFA's have leverage because they are very good hockey players and very good hockey players are in short supply and teams don't have easy avenues to replace them. Hockey teams also tend to be very risk-averse. What if Nylander sits out all season and, in addition to not signing Nylander being a constant topic of conversation both in the organization and in the media, the Leafs then narrowly lose to Boston or Tampa? Would that look good for Dubas? Would that make Marner or Matthews feel really excited about this management team? Most GMs are not going to choose to make their teams significantly worse to save small amounts of money.

Those are precisely the sorts of scenarios that most NHL GMs desperately want to avoid. That's why deals get signed, that's why the salary structure is what it is. There is no upside in being the team that let their relationship with a very good young player sour and hurt their team's chances as a result.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 12, 2018, 09:53:24 PM
So teams are giving in to RFA's because they might have to match an offer sheet that is highly unlikely to  happen??

Sweet christmas, no. OFFER SHEETS ARE NOT THE CAUSE. RFA's don't have leverage because of potential offer sheets, RFA's have leverage because they are very good hockey players and very good hockey players are in short supply and teams don't have easy avenues to replace them. Hockey teams also tend to be very risk-averse. What if Nylander sits out all season and, in addition to not signing Nylander being a constant topic of conversation both in the organization and in the media, the Leafs then narrowly lose to Boston or Tampa? Would that look good for Dubas? Would that make Marner or Matthews feel really excited about this management team? Most GMs are not going to choose to make their teams significantly worse to save small amounts of money.

Those are precisely the sorts of scenarios that most NHL GMs desperately want to avoid. That's why deals get signed, that's why the salary structure is what it is. There is no upside in being the team that let their relationship with a very good young player sour and hurt their team's chances as a result.
On the flip side wouldn't the player want to avoid missing an entire year of NHL money? Is he going to make more playing in Europe? He can try I guess but it'll be to no benefit to him playing against weaker competition and still coming back to the same RFA status in the NHL.  The team can afford to go without him, can he afford to miss out on a few million?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 10:08:48 PM
If this RFA leverage is so prevalent, how do you account for the reasonable cap hits of better Nylander comparables like Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Forsberg, Ehlers, Benn and even Gaudreau?

A few things. With a list of guys that long, I'm not entirely sure all of them really work. For instance, take Mackinnon. Mackinnon signed his extension after two seasons where he scored 38 and then 52 points. He signed for 6.3 million which represented 8.63% of the cap. A comparable cap hit for Nylander, coming off two straight 60+ point seasons, would work out to roughly 6.9 million which would be a nice deal for Nylander but above what most people already seem to comfortable with. So is Mackinnon an example of a more reasonable deal? It certainly looks that way after the season he just had but that was still just his first 60+ point season of his career.

Or take Gaudreau. Gaudreau signed for 9.6% of the cap but, fair goes, he had a 78 point season. But, that said, he got way more ice time than Nylander and especially way more PP time. An equivalent deal for Nylander would be 7.6 million.

Beyond that, just about everyone you mention were 60 or so point wingers when they signed their extensions. The Leafs are certainly welcome to try and use their decision to play Nylander on the wing as justification to try and pay him like a 60 point winger but I can't help but think that is a pretty big reason why camp's about to start and they haven't reached a deal.

But beyond that the answer to your question is relatively simple. It's a league with a cap and that cap puts a pressure on players to not maximize their money because it weakens their team. Not every player is going to use their leverage to it's absolute utmost for their own enrichment. We know that's true. We know that Tavares didn't sign for as much as he could have. But just like Tavares signing for 11 million didn't mean he couldn't have gotten more, some of those guys signing for what they did isn't a perfect snap shot of what they could have gotten.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 10:12:13 PM
And what small amount?? Today's talk has Nylander asking for $8 million and Leaf's s offer around $6 million.
That's kinda big in a Cap world.

I don't agree. Even taking those numbers as gospel you're talking about 2.5% of the cap. It's less than the difference between having Ron Hainsey or not.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 10:17:31 PM
On the flip side wouldn't the player want to avoid missing an entire year of NHL money? Is he going to make more playing in Europe? He can try I guess but it'll be to no benefit to him playing against weaker competition and still coming back to the same RFA status in the NHL.  The team can afford to go without him, can he afford to miss out on a few million?

Well, it's the difference between that threat as brinksmanship and the reality of it. You say the team can afford to go without him but I think in the majority of cases while that's literally true, I think it's a situation that teams would desperately want to avoid and, as a result, a protracted hold out is far more likely to result in a team trading someone in that situation than they are going a whole year with that being an issue for the team.

I just really don't think the sorts of people who run NHL teams are the guys who are going to say "Yeah, our team could be a lot better and without a huge distraction but...man, I've really got to save that 1.2 million".
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 10:18:01 PM
Now compound that difference with Marner being better than Nylander and Matthews being better than Marner and all of a sudden that Cap difference is looking rather large.
And what small amount?? Today's talk has Nylander asking for $8 million and Leaf's s offer around $6 million.
That's kinda big in a Cap world.

I don't agree. Even taking those numbers as gospel you're talking about 2.5% of the cap. It's less than the difference between having Ron Hainsey or not.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 10:26:41 PM
Now compound that difference with Marner being better than Nylander and Matthews being better than Marner and all of a sudden that Cap difference is looking rather large.

Except as we've already noted, deals aren't always a perfect reflection of each other. If Nylander gets 7 instead of 6 it's no guarantee that Marner or Matthews are also going to want a similar adjustment. Tampa was able to talk Stamkos and Hedman into a discount they weren't able to with Kucherov. Not everyone works from the same playbook.

So, again, it's not a huge difference but no matter what Nylander gets the simple truth is that the Leafs are also going to have tough negotiations with Marner and Matthews. Getting them all signed is going to be tricky because they have a lot of leverage. The Leafs can't just go out and replace them.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 10:33:18 PM
Or Kucherov is just better than Stamkos as he leads the team for the last couple seasons and gets a million more per year for being the better and more consistent player
Now compound that difference with Marner being better than Nylander and Matthews being better than Marner and all of a sudden that Cap difference is looking rather large.

Except as we've already noted, deals aren't always a perfect reflection of each other. If Nylander gets 7 instead of 6 it's no guarantee that Marner or Matthews are also going to want a similar adjustment. Tampa was able to talk Stamkos and Hedman into a discount they weren't able to with Kucherov. Not everyone works from the same playbook.

So, again, it's not a huge difference but no matter what Nylander gets the simple truth is that the Leafs are also going to have tough negotiations with Marner and Matthews. Getting them all signed is going to be tricky because they have a lot of leverage. The Leafs can't just go out and replace them.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 10:39:45 PM
Or Kucherov is just better than Stamkos as he leads the team for the last couple seasons and gets a million more per year for being the better and more consistent player.

Sure but according to you Kucherov had no leverage whereas Stamkos and Hedman had lots.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 10:43:57 PM
Kucherov, being Russian , has a real trump card. Actually he has two as he is his team's best forward. And he signed a deal he has earned
I suspect if Nylander was willing to sign the one he gas earned it would already be done.  If reports are correct Nylander is asking for a contract far above what he has earned. No idea how you could think they are the same??
Or Kucherov is just better than Stamkos as he leads the team for the last couple seasons and gets a million more per year for being the better and more consistent player.

Sure but according to you Kucherov had no leverage whereas Stamkos and Hedman had lots.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 10:48:20 PM
Kucherov, being Russian , has a real trump card. Actually he has two as he is his team's best forward. And he signed a deal he has earned
I suspect if Nylander was willing to sign the one he gas earned it would already be done. 

Oh I see. So when you said over and over and over and over that RFA's had no leverage what you actually meant was that their leverage is actually dependant on things like their other options, how good they are, how amenable their teams would be to losing them and things of that nature.

Huh, I guess we did agree after all.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 10:51:20 PM
No they still don't have any leverage, if the team isn't willing to meet their demand there is little they can do about it. It just so happens that sometimes teams agree on their worth and pay them, sometimes teams are wrong and pay them too much, and sometimes teams don't agree and won't pay too much as the Leafs are currently holding strong on. I support Dubas
Kucherov, being Russian , has a real trump card. Actually he has two as he is his team's best forward. And he signed a deal he has earned
I suspect if Nylander was willing to sign the one he gas earned it would already be done. 

Oh I see. So when you said over and over and over and over that RFA's had no leverage what you actually meant was that their leverage is actually dependant on things like their other options, how good they are, how amenable their teams would be to losing them and things of that nature.

Huh, I guess we did agree after all.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 10:56:42 PM
It just so happens that sometimes teams agree on their worth and pay them, sometimes teams are wrong and pay them too much, and sometimes teams don't agree and won't pay too much as the Leafs are currently holding strong on.

Now that you've agreed with me about leverage, we can get back to the heart of the matter. All this really is is a dispute about how much Nylander is worth in the place of the established NHL salary structure.

As I said to Zee, I think Nylander is in a pretty reasonable place. If you take the 8 million as a negotiating position rather than some sort of hard and fast indisputable truth about what he wants then I think he's very much in a reasonable place.

Which of course brings me back to where I was a while ago. I really don't think the two sides are that far apart and because signing Nylander is ultimately beneficial to both parties, I remain very confident that a deal will get done before too long.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 12, 2018, 10:59:41 PM
No agreement on leverage. The Leafs can play this season without signing Nylander. Nylander will make little or nothing this season unless he signs with the Leafs. It's obvious to everyone on earth but you that the Leafs have the leverage in this case. All other players in the NHL are irrelevant in this discussion.
It just so happens that sometimes teams agree on their worth and pay them, sometimes teams are wrong and pay them too much, and sometimes teams don't agree and won't pay too much as the Leafs are currently holding strong on.

Now that you've agreed with me about leverage, we can get back to the heart of the matter. All this really is is a dispute about how much Nylander is worth in the place of the established NHL salary structure.

As I said to Zee, I think Nylander is in a pretty reasonable place. If you take the 8 million as a negotiating position rather than some sort of hard and fast indisputable truth about what he wants then I think he's very much in a reasonable place.

Which of course brings me back to where I was a while ago. I really don't think the two sides are that far apart and because signing Nylander is ultimately beneficial to both parties, I remain very confident that a deal will get done before too long.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 11:12:05 PM
Anyways, with one issue amicably resolved we can get back to simply talking about Nylander's place in the salary structure.

But even there I think you're misrepresenting things. So long as you dismiss every comparable you don't like as being a result of teams being stupid or lacking in confidence or whatever you're going to paint a very different picture of the salary structure than the one that actually exists and the Leafs have to negotiate against.

Take Logan Couture as an example. Prior to signing his second deal his career high in points was 65. He signed at 9% of the cap. A comparable Nylander deal would be 7.15 per. I don't think the Sharks are a badly run team. Or, again, take Tomas Hertl. He got 5.625 despite never hitting 50 points. That kind of hurts a 6m argument for Nylander.

The NHL salary landscape is pretty complex. Thankfully, I think this one will get settled in a way that comfortably fits into it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 11:16:40 PM

Also, I really think we should broaden the discussion re: term. It really wouldn't surprise me if Dubas was trying to get Nylander to sign a longer term deal than he wanted despite having a general agreement on the parameters of salary.

I think this is more important than it might seem at first glance as it can be a case of contradictory impulses. The team can say they think Nylander has only "earned" 6 or 6.5 or whatever it is but if they say that at the same time as wanting him to sign for the maximum allowable length is does kind of betray that they know they're getting him at below market value. Those are tricky waters to navigate.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: azzurri63 on September 12, 2018, 11:27:14 PM
What gets me in all of this is Dubas' comments a while back about discussing the acquisition of Tavares with the big 3 prior to signing John. Sounded like Tavares signed for less in TO and that keeping the club intact would take a similar approach from the big 3. If that was the case you think we wouldn't be in this situation the Leafs are in now. Believe what you want as far as what Nylander's group is asking but were Dubas' comments just hogwash? If Tavares signed for less in TO cause 1) the direction the team is headed, 2) the young talented group we have and 3) the chances of hoisting a cup then the big 3 should be the same. Dubas was right when he said it wouldn't be fair to John to trade away one of the big 3. If Nylander can't be signed for 6.5 per year or less then I say send him off. I can see the team having the same issues with M & M as well. If all this was talked about and Dubas assuring Leaf fans he was going to be able to sign all 3 then why are we a day or two from training camp and Nylander isn't signed. Personally I think if Nylander is playing hardball let him sit and if worse comes to worse trade him for some D that everyone says we are lacking. I think we have some good young forwards to fill the spots and if Willy doesn't want to co-operate then say goodbye.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 12, 2018, 11:33:01 PM
Dubas was right when he said it wouldn't be fair to John to trade away one of the big 3. If Nylander can't be signed for 6.5 per year or less then I say send him off.

These two sentences seem fairly contradictory.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on September 13, 2018, 12:01:12 AM
It seems clear that both parties have ďsomeĒ leverage. If the players had none then they all sign for the minimum salary; if the teams had none, the players would sign for the max available.

In this case, Iíd say the leafs have a little more than usual because they have a lot of great forwards, seem like a desirable place for willie to play, and wont actually miss him that much due to their RW depth.  Most analyses Ive sen suggest ~7 is fair for a long term deal, based on comparables. I expect slightly less.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 13, 2018, 12:06:10 AM
It seems clear that both parties have ďsomeĒ leverage. If the players had none then they all sign for the minimum salary; if the teams had none, the players would sign for the max available.

In this case, Iíd say the leafs have a little more than usual because they have a lot of great forwards, seem like a desirable place for willie to play, and wont actually miss him that much due to their RW depth.  Most analyses Ive sen suggest ~7 is fair for a long term deal, based on comparables. I expect slightly less.

I agree with that more or less. The one thing I'd say is kind of a mitigating factor in Nylander's favour in terms of the push and pull is the situation in Toronto. Both with regards to what I'm sure is an internal feeling that they're a contender and the increased media scrutiny.

But yeah. I'm still in the 6.5-7.5 camp.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: azzurri63 on September 13, 2018, 12:13:16 AM
Dubas was right when he said it wouldn't be fair to John to trade away one of the big 3. If Nylander can't be signed for 6.5 per year or less then I say send him off.

These two sentences seem fairly contradictory.

Dubas made the comment which to me sounded like he was going to be able to sign the 3 and my belief to a slight team discount. That to keep the core together for years to come. If he's not able to sign him for 6.5 per which is what I feel Nylander should be in line for compared to others ie Pastarnak, Ehlers etc. If they can't sign him for that then I say let him sit or trade him for some D.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 13, 2018, 06:40:21 AM
Dubas available to speak at 10am today, I wonder what the first question will be? [emoji848]
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on September 13, 2018, 07:34:49 AM
Mackinnon signed his extension after two seasons where he scored 38 and then 52 points. He signed for 6.3 million which represented 8.63% of the cap. A comparable cap hit for Nylander, coming off two straight 60+ point seasons, would work out to roughly 6.9 million which would be a nice deal for Nylander.

8)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 13, 2018, 10:07:48 AM
Mackinnon signed his extension after two seasons where he scored 38 and then 52 points. He signed for 6.3 million which represented 8.63% of the cap. A comparable cap hit for Nylander, coming off two straight 60+ point seasons, would work out to roughly 6.9 million which would be a nice deal for Nylander.

8)

Stolen cap hit percentages from Reddit so don't yell at me if they're not 100% correct.  But these are the percentages of cap hits for *similar* Nylander players when they signed their deals and what that would translate to Nylander today under the current $79.5M cap

Draisaitl 11.33%          ($9M for Nylander)
Gaudreau 10.27%     ($8.16M for Nylander)
Pastrnak 9.25%             ($7.35M for Nylander)
MacKinnon 8.89%     ($7.06M for Nylander)
Forsberg 8.63%             ($6.86M for Nylander)
Ehlers   8%        ($6.36M for Nylander)
Benn   8.16%             ($6.48M for Nylander)

Obviously from this list I'm sure Nylander and his agent would want to be at the very top although $9M is ridiculous, but the bottom end of $6.36 if probably where the Leafs want the number to be.  I say 8.5% of the cap should be fair on both sides so $6.75M
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 13, 2018, 10:21:16 AM
Mackinnon signed his extension after two seasons where he scored 38 and then 52 points. He signed for 6.3 million which represented 8.63% of the cap. A comparable cap hit for Nylander, coming off two straight 60+ point seasons, would work out to roughly 6.9 million which would be a nice deal for Nylander.

8)

Stolen cap hit percentages from Reddit so don't yell at me if they're not 100% correct.  But these are the percentages of cap hits for *similar* Nylander players when they signed their deals and what that would translate to Nylander today under the current $79.5M cap

Draisaitl 11.33%          ($9M for Nylander)
Gaudreau 10.27%     ($8.16M for Nylander)
Pastrnak 9.25%             ($7.35M for Nylander)
MacKinnon 8.89%     ($7.06M for Nylander)
Forsberg 8.63%             ($6.86M for Nylander)
Ehlers   8%        ($6.36M for Nylander)
Benn   8.16%             ($6.48M for Nylander)

Obviously from this list I'm sure Nylander and his agent would want to be at the very top although $9M is ridiculous, but the bottom end of $6.36 if probably where the Leafs want the number to be.  I say 8.5% of the cap should be fair on both sides so $6.75M

I'm with Nik on this one.  6.9M per.  Then Mitch says "NICE.  I'll have that too"
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: L K on September 13, 2018, 10:22:56 AM
Mackinnon signed his extension after two seasons where he scored 38 and then 52 points. He signed for 6.3 million which represented 8.63% of the cap. A comparable cap hit for Nylander, coming off two straight 60+ point seasons, would work out to roughly 6.9 million which would be a nice deal for Nylander.

8)

Stolen cap hit percentages from Reddit so don't yell at me if they're not 100% correct.  But these are the percentages of cap hits for *similar* Nylander players when they signed their deals and what that would translate to Nylander today under the current $79.5M cap

Draisaitl 11.33%          ($9M for Nylander)
Gaudreau 10.27%     ($8.16M for Nylander)
Pastrnak 9.25%             ($7.35M for Nylander)
MacKinnon 8.89%     ($7.06M for Nylander)
Forsberg 8.63%             ($6.86M for Nylander)
Ehlers   8%        ($6.36M for Nylander)
Benn   8.16%             ($6.48M for Nylander)

Obviously from this list I'm sure Nylander and his agent would want to be at the very top although $9M is ridiculous, but the bottom end of $6.36 if probably where the Leafs want the number to be.  I say 8.5% of the cap should be fair on both sides so $6.75M

I'm with Nik on this one.  6.9M per.  Then Mitch says "NICE.  I'll have that too"

I'm not as hip with the kids these days but I wonder if we can sign him for 3 of those Fortnite skins instead?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 13, 2018, 10:31:17 AM
Dubas says no update on Nylander.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 13, 2018, 10:46:46 AM
The key word in the second part of your statement above is "If". 

Indeed and an especially eagle-eyed observer might have somehow sussed that was the entire working premise of the post you were responding to:

Really, why wouldn't you ask for that?  This is a negotiation after all.  If you think you are worth 7 or 7.5M and you know the team is coming in at Ehlers/Pastrnak numbers (6M-6.6M), you'd probably start above 8M.

So the answer to why 8 and not 10 is because in the hypothetical it is equidistant on Nylander's part and the team's part to what Nylander thinks the deal ultimately should be.


And if Nylander feels he's worth $8m, then his ask was totally acceptable...to him.

If he feels he's worth 8 and he asked for 8 then his ask wasn't just acceptable, it's leaving him no room to negotiate. I don't negotiate for a living but even I know you should probably start out a little higher than what you ultimately would agree to.

I don't know who feels what in this negotiation, and I have zero information, but I stick by my statement that either party throwing out very high, or very low numbers usually doesn't help expedite negotiations.

Then, again, one might infer that at issue is a disagreement about what constitutes a "very high" number in this case, rather than the assumption that the people negotiating Nylander's contract aren't quite as savvy as you think they should be.

We're getting caught up in hypotheticals here.  Here's where I'm at...

1.  Negotiations, in general, move along better when both parties feel that negotiations are being carried out in good faith, and that each side is being reasonable.  Unreasonable asks usually damage the good faith.

2.  An ask is reasonable if you can provide convincing rationale/evidence.  But just going in high, or low, for no other reason than to try and drive the price up or down usually gets dismissed pretty quickly if there isn't any evidence/rationale to support a position.  This is to your point, in one hypothetical, that Nylander should go in at $8m so that he can settle at $7ish...unless he has reasons to support his $8, it's not likely to be taken seriously. 

3.  You suggest that going in at $8 wouldn't get you $8 in a negotiation.  This is false.  Often times, negotiations are about justifying your position vs. the other party's ability to justify theirs.  And if you're a savvy negotiator, it's not just about picking numbers, you convince the other party of the value of your offer/position.

4.  I don't have any opinion on how Nylander's team is negotiating this deal, because I don't know anything about the circumstances.  I was pretty clear on that.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 13, 2018, 11:17:31 AM
We're getting caught up in hypotheticals here.

Again, the post you responded to was entirely predicated on that assumption. I really don't understand why you'd respond to a hypothetical preposition with "BUT THAT'S A HYPOTHETICAL" but, you know, you do you I guess.

But beyond that, now you just seem to be contradicting yourself. Earlier "the goal" of negotiations was to find a middle ground. Now it's about convincing one side or the other of an initial position. Those are two fundamentally different concepts. Truth is, Nylander(or his representatives) probably has a range of numbers he'd accept and a range of numbers he feels he can support. The same is true with Dubas. As we've beaten to death in this thread, there are all manner of ways to compare players and they're going to support arguments for a wide array of numbers. It makes sense for Nylander to initially put forth something on the higher end of what he'd want(and likewise for the Leafs to go in at the lower end) and the "middle ground" they hopefully find is where the upper end of what the Leafs would find acceptable and the lower end of what Nylander would want overlap. It makes very little sense for Nylander and his representatives to start at the lower end of what they'd want.

One of the things I pride myself on is being pretty clear about things I know and things I don't know. I don't negotiate hockey contracts for a living but, I'm guessing, neither do you. The guys doing this for Nylander do it all the time. Because you "don't want to get bogged down in hypotheticals" I think we can also say fairly plainly that whatever the number Nylander's representatives have put forth they're doing so either out of a genuine interest in getting that number or it's being done with what they feel is a valid strategic purpose. Short of "getting into the hypotheticals" about what that number is and whether or not it is reasonable I think we could probably all agree without it needing to be said that the respective parties are working in what they feel are their own ultimate best interests and that everyone involved probably has a general working knowledge of the business they're conducting.

Likewise, I think we can pretty clearly say without getting bogged down in hypotheticals, that the fact that this has gone on as long as it has indicates that it was a more difficult negotiation than some people might have hoped and that there's either been a failure on the part of both sides to bring the other over to their view of things or there's just a genuine distance between them on what an acceptable number should be.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on September 13, 2018, 11:40:38 AM
Mackinnon signed his extension after two seasons where he scored 38 and then 52 points. He signed for 6.3 million which represented 8.63% of the cap. A comparable cap hit for Nylander, coming off two straight 60+ point seasons, would work out to roughly 6.9 million which would be a nice deal for Nylander.

8)

Stolen cap hit percentages from Reddit so don't yell at me if they're not 100% correct.  But these are the percentages of cap hits for *similar* Nylander players when they signed their deals and what that would translate to Nylander today under the current $79.5M cap

Draisaitl 11.33%          ($9M for Nylander)
Gaudreau 10.27%     ($8.16M for Nylander)
Pastrnak 9.25%             ($7.35M for Nylander)
MacKinnon 8.89%     ($7.06M for Nylander)
Forsberg 8.63%             ($6.86M for Nylander)
Ehlers   8%        ($6.36M for Nylander)
Benn   8.16%             ($6.48M for Nylander)

Obviously from this list I'm sure Nylander and his agent would want to be at the very top although $9M is ridiculous, but the bottom end of $6.36 if probably where the Leafs want the number to be.  I say 8.5% of the cap should be fair on both sides so $6.75M
Great math... $6.5-$6.99
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 13, 2018, 11:54:58 AM
The term has to play a big role. Say they're agreed to 8 years, both sides. Nylander might argue that in 7 years 8 million will be 5% of the cap space. He may want an average of 8% cap space for the next 8 years. If the cap goes up at x % per year that means a yearly average of x million to hit that 8%.

Basically, pay me 11% this year, 10% next year....5 % in year 8, so that the average cap hit over 8 years is 8%.

Otherwise he'll say okay pay me 8% now, but only for 4 years so I can resign at 8% again in 8 years. It's great for the team to have guys with low cap hits later in contracts, but the players have to be getting wise.

Just throwing example numbers out there.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Hobbes on September 13, 2018, 12:04:47 PM
The term has to play a big role. Say they're agreed to 8 years, both sides. Nylander might argue that in 7 years 8 million will be 5% of the cap space. He may want an average of 8% cap space for the next 8 years. If the cap goes up at x % per year that means a yearly average of x million to hit that 8%.

Basically, pay me 11% this year, 10% next year....5 % in year 8, so that the average cap hit over 8 years is 8%.

Otherwise he'll say okay pay me 8% now, but only for 4 years so I can resign at 8% again in 8 years. It's great for the team to have guys with low cap hits later in contracts, but the players have to be getting wise.

Just throwing example numbers out there.

Except none of his comparables are getting 8% average over the 8-year term of their contracts (except perhaps for Draisaitl). For him to fall in line with them he'd have to be looking at more like 6% average over that term.

The Leafs would also never consider signing him to a deal that ends at his first available UFA year so 4 would be out. A bridge would be 2 or at most 3 years...anything else would have to be taking up at least a year or two of UFA eligibility to make it worth their while agreeing to.

Add to that the potential for a CBA lockout in a few years...

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 13, 2018, 12:16:10 PM
Except none of his comparables are getting 8% average over the 8-year term of their contracts (except perhaps for Draisaitl). For him to fall in line with them he'd have to be looking at more like 6% average over that term.

But I think that's sort of the point. The rest of those guys probably won't make the annual 8% but that's probably a factor in why all of them except Draisaitl signed for less than 8 years. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Hobbes on September 13, 2018, 12:21:31 PM
Except none of his comparables are getting 8% average over the 8-year term of their contracts (except perhaps for Draisaitl). For him to fall in line with them he'd have to be looking at more like 6% average over that term.

But I think that's sort of the point. The rest of those guys probably won't make the annual 8% but that's probably a factor in why all of them except Draisaitl signed for less than 8 years.

Sure, as a player you'd want to sign for 4 years for as much as you possibly could. Your agent is going to have a tough time with that, though, and if you have NHL aspirations you're a bit behind the 8-ball at this juncture in your career. He could bet on himself, sign a bridge deal at around 5-5.5 and have somewhat more leverage next time around when he's arbitration eligible; or he can get the term and stability of a longer term contract in the 6-8 year range and be paid for giving up some UFA years, but not at the earning potential he *could* get *if* he's as good as he thinks he is.

The whole bridge/term equation is a bet by the player vs a bet by the team as to how good that player will be.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 13, 2018, 12:28:27 PM
I just threw 4 out without checking RFA years remaining. Point was that other players signed for current cap hit % only, presumably, but maybe Nylander is taking longer because he's paying more attention to avg % over the course of the contract. And both sides want that 8-year deal.

If I were an agent/player I would definitely be saying, yeah if I sign for 8% now for 8 years, that's a bad deal for me in the last couple years. Look how much the cap is growing every year! I want that taken into consideration. Hence let's talk about avg % cap hit.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 13, 2018, 12:40:47 PM
Interesting conversation here gentlemen.  One thing that sticks out is almost ALL of the conversation surrounds him re-signing on a long term deal.  (ie 6-8 yrs).

Mirtle posted this on twitter and at first I thought 4M was laughably low for a bridge deal:


But upon further reflection, maybe it isn't entirely out of line.  If William Karlsson only got 5.25M on a one year deal, maybe Willie's 1 yr price starts with a 4.  However, 2-3 years at a 5M is equivalent to Kucherov's bridge deal.

If the options on the table are 2-3 years at say 5M or 6 years at 6.5M, I'm definitely leaning towards the long term deal even if the cap savings over the next two seasons will be helpful (mostly next year).  But man, it will probably come back to bite you when its time to sign his next deal.  And, if you are Nylander... maybe you just take the bridge deal when you see Kucherov getting 9.5M for the next 8 now? 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 13, 2018, 12:42:05 PM
Sure, as a player you'd want to sign for 4 years for as much as you possibly could. Your agent is going to have a tough time with that, though, and if you have NHL aspirations you're a bit behind the 8-ball at this juncture in your career. He could bet on himself, sign a bridge deal at around 5-5.5 and have somewhat more leverage next time around when he's arbitration eligible; or he can get the term and stability of a longer term contract in the 6-8 year range and be paid for giving up some UFA years, but not at the earning potential he *could* get *if* he's as good as he thinks he is.

The whole bridge/term equation is a bet by the player vs a bet by the team as to how good that player will be.

No, I'm with you on that. What I think is sort of an interesting wrinkle in this situation is the cap situation the Leafs figure to be in next year specifically. Nylander may want a 8 year deal at a high AAV but the Leafs might be thinking that they're better off getting a smaller AAV sort of however they can while still keeping Nylander happy.

So that's where the Leafs might prefer a shorter term deal. Not because they have doubts about Nylander as a player long term but because it gives them some immediate breathing room and 4 or 5 years of Nylander at a decent cap hit while punting of the problem of giving him the deal he wants.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 13, 2018, 12:44:59 PM
Sure, as a player you'd want to sign for 4 years for as much as you possibly could. Your agent is going to have a tough time with that, though, and if you have NHL aspirations you're a bit behind the 8-ball at this juncture in your career. He could bet on himself, sign a bridge deal at around 5-5.5 and have somewhat more leverage next time around when he's arbitration eligible; or he can get the term and stability of a longer term contract in the 6-8 year range and be paid for giving up some UFA years, but not at the earning potential he *could* get *if* he's as good as he thinks he is.

The whole bridge/term equation is a bet by the player vs a bet by the team as to how good that player will be.

No, I'm with you on that. What I think is sort of an interesting wrinkle in this situation is the cap situation the Leafs figure to be in next year specifically. Nylander may want a 8 year deal at a high AAV but the Leafs might be thinking that they're better off getting a smaller AAV sort of however they can while still keeping Nylander happy.

So that's where the Leafs might prefer a shorter term deal. Not because they have doubts about Nylander as a player long term but because it gives them some immediate breathing room and 4 or 5 years of Nylander at a decent cap hit while punting of the problem of giving him the deal he wants.

Next year is going to be a tough one cap wise. Getting Nylander with a low cap hit for next year specifically is definitely a factor.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 13, 2018, 12:48:30 PM
Interesting conversation here gentlemen.  One thing that sticks out is almost ALL of the conversation surrounds him re-signing on a long term deal.  (ie 6-8 yrs).

Mirtle posted this on twitter and at first I thought 4M was laughably low for a bridge deal:


But upon further reflection, maybe it isn't entirely out of line.  If William Karlsson only got 5.25M on a one year deal, maybe Willie's 1 yr price starts with a 4.  However, 2-3 years at a 5M is equivalent to Kucherov's bridge deal.

If the options on the table are 2-3 years at say 5M or 6 years at 6.5M, I'm definitely leaning towards the long term deal even if the cap savings over the next two seasons will be helpful (mostly next year).  But man, it will probably come back to bite you when its time to sign his next deal.  And, if you are Nylander... maybe you just take the bridge deal when you see Kucherov getting 9.5M for the next 8 now?

The bite after next year may not be as bad though.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 13, 2018, 01:35:52 PM
Not Leafs-related, but talking about holdouts around the league...
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As I've seen pointed out, $300k for 2 years is the exact amount of Eric Gryba's buyout that didn't need to happen at all.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: disco on September 13, 2018, 03:44:47 PM
We all know Willy's awesome and we want him here forever. And we all know it's all about that cap cheese. Only so much to go around. It's about more than points I'd argue, Willy was on Auston Matthews' right side almost the entire time he's been in the league. A fine place to be for amassing those points. I think Dubie's shrewd enough to make all the contracts work long-term. We shall see.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Hobbes on September 14, 2018, 11:49:20 AM
Sure, as a player you'd want to sign for 4 years for as much as you possibly could. Your agent is going to have a tough time with that, though, and if you have NHL aspirations you're a bit behind the 8-ball at this juncture in your career. He could bet on himself, sign a bridge deal at around 5-5.5 and have somewhat more leverage next time around when he's arbitration eligible; or he can get the term and stability of a longer term contract in the 6-8 year range and be paid for giving up some UFA years, but not at the earning potential he *could* get *if* he's as good as he thinks he is.

The whole bridge/term equation is a bet by the player vs a bet by the team as to how good that player will be.

No, I'm with you on that. What I think is sort of an interesting wrinkle in this situation is the cap situation the Leafs figure to be in next year specifically. Nylander may want a 8 year deal at a high AAV but the Leafs might be thinking that they're better off getting a smaller AAV sort of however they can while still keeping Nylander happy.

So that's where the Leafs might prefer a shorter term deal. Not because they have doubts about Nylander as a player long term but because it gives them some immediate breathing room and 4 or 5 years of Nylander at a decent cap hit while punting of the problem of giving him the deal he wants.

Dubas was just interviewed on Leafs Lunch and made it clear that the Leafs want Nylander signed long term rather than bridge so this suggests that either they're (so far) unable to agree upon a number or else Nylander wants to bet on himself by taking a short term deal in order to get to a higher dollar contract sooner. (I suppose the third alternative is Dubas BSing in the interview, though he could easily have said "not going to talk about it, period" instead.)

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 11:51:45 AM
Dubas was just interviewed on Leafs Lunch and made it clear that the Leafs want Nylander signed long term rather than bridge so this suggests that either they're (so far) unable to agree upon a number or else Nylander wants to bet on himself by taking a short term deal in order to get to a higher dollar contract sooner. (I suppose the third alternative is Dubas BSing in the interview, though he could easily have said "not going to talk about it, period" instead.)

Well, that or the third alternative is that "long term" is kind of a vague term that can apply to a 4 or 5 year deal if short term just means a year or two.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Hobbes on September 14, 2018, 11:53:57 AM
Dubas was just interviewed on Leafs Lunch and made it clear that the Leafs want Nylander signed long term rather than bridge so this suggests that either they're (so far) unable to agree upon a number or else Nylander wants to bet on himself by taking a short term deal in order to get to a higher dollar contract sooner. (I suppose the third alternative is Dubas BSing in the interview, though he could easily have said "not going to talk about it, period" instead.)

Well, that or the third alternative is that "long term" is kind of a vague term that can apply to a 4 or 5 year deal if short term just means a year or two.

Sure, and perhaps that's the major sticking point...the exact number of years of term vs AAV...the longer the Leafs want that to be, the more it's likely to cost them.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 14, 2018, 01:36:07 PM

Indeed and an especially eagle-eyed observer might have somehow sussed that was the entire working premise of the post you were responding to:

Really, why wouldn't you ask for that?  This is a negotiation after all.  If you think you are worth 7 or 7.5M and you know the team is coming in at Ehlers/Pastrnak numbers (6M-6.6M), you'd probably start above 8M.

So the answer to why 8 and not 10 is because in the hypothetical it is equidistant on Nylander's part and the team's part to what Nylander thinks the deal ultimately should be.

This goes back to what I was saying in that you need to have some justification for your position, to show that you're being reasonable.  If they feel as though they can justify the $8, in this hypothetical, and they're being reasonable, then go for it.  Where I'm coming from is if they don't really have much evidence to ask for $8, and they're just asking $8 so that they can settle at $7ish, then the $8 ask won't likely be seen as reasonable, which can create issues for the other party...this might very well be what's going on, as I'm sure we can agree that not having Nylander at camp isn't ideal for Nylander or for the Leafs.

If he feels he's worth 8 and he asked for 8 then his ask wasn't just acceptable, it's leaving him no room to negotiate. I don't negotiate for a living but even I know you should probably start out a little higher than what you ultimately would agree to.

Not necessarily, often times negotiations are about sharing your justification for your position, and barring the other party sharing information that would entice you to lower your expectation, you hold firm.  I'd say since this is Dubas' first big deal of the big 3, he might very well be advised to follow this sort of strategy since he might want to be consistent with how he deals with the next 2.

Then, again, one might infer that at issue is a disagreement about what constitutes a "very high" number in this case, rather than the assumption that the people negotiating Nylander's contract aren't quite as savvy as you think they should be.

For the 3rd time, I don't really know what the problem is, and I can only assume that there's a significant distance between the 2.  So I'd say, in this case, that neither side has done a very good job of negotiating, since the current state of things is that Nylander is missing some valuable pre-season work with his teammates. 

Dubas has mentioned that he shared a vision with Tavares on where the team is going, and specifically said that they'd re-sign the big-3.  I'm wondering if maybe Dubas was a little over-confident in that he'd be able to get each of them to sign reasonable deals to keep the band together.  Like I said, the current situation isn't ideal for either party.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 01:56:40 PM
This goes back to what I was saying in that you need to have some justification for your position, to show that you're being reasonable.  If they feel as though they can justify the $8, in this hypothetical, and they're being reasonable, then go for it.  Where I'm coming from is if they don't really have much evidence to ask for $8, and they're just asking $8 so that they can settle at $7ish, then the $8 ask won't likely be seen as reasonable, which can create issues for the other party...this might very well be what's going on, as I'm sure we can agree that not having Nylander at camp isn't ideal for Nylander or for the Leafs.

See, this is why I tend to think that most agents, and indeed a lot of NHL front office types, tend to be from legal backgrounds rather than business backgrounds. "Justification" here or "reasonable" are floating points. A decent enough Lawyer would be able to find "justification" for anything short of outright lunacy. In these sorts of negotiations if you want to make a case for something, you probably can. That's why I think it's more about strategy than a "just the straight facts" sort of thing. Get enough Lawyers together and facts can be pretty malleable especially if "reasonable" really refers to a range of numbers rather than a specific target. 

Not necessarily, often times negotiations are about sharing your justification for your position, and barring the other party sharing information that would entice you to lower your expectation, you hold firm.  I'd say since this is Dubas' first big deal of the big 3, he might very well be advised to follow this sort of strategy since he might want to be consistent with how he deals with the next 2.

You're responding here to a post you've already responded to so in lieu of repeating my own response to you I'd say that from what I've read about pro sports negotiations in my life, which is a fair amount, I'd say it's very very rare for these negotiations to ever be conducted where the sides are unwilling to move at all from an initial position.

For the 3rd time, I don't really know what the problem is, and I can only assume that there's a significant distance between the 2.  So I'd say, in this case, that neither side has done a very good job of negotiating, since the current state of things is that Nylander is missing some valuable pre-season work with his teammates.

I think that's like watching a marathon at the 20 mile mark and thinking nobody's done a very good job because not a single runner has won the race yet. I'm not personally convinced that the time Nylander might miss is all that valuable and if the end result is that either Nylander or Dubas get something they otherwise might not have then the negotiation will still ultimately be successful in their eyes.   
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 14, 2018, 02:11:06 PM
I think that's like watching a marathon at the 20 mile mark and thinking nobody's done a very good job because not a single runner has won the race yet. I'm not personally convinced that the time Nylander might miss is all that valuable and if the end result is that either Nylander or Dubas get something they otherwise might not have then the negotiation will still ultimately be successful in their eyes.

I don't agree.  I think since camp has started, and players are all contractually obligated to attend, that this is the end of the race. 

You may not feel that camp is very important, but obviously every NHL club feels as though it is, and they mandate attendance.  Will it have a bearing on the overall result of season?  Probably not, but it's certainly not the time to still be negotiating. 

I think the time to get something they might have otherwise not gotten was something that should have been accomplished a couple of days ago.  Today, I'd say these negotiations have been unsuccessful, given he's not at work when everyone else is.  Dubas hasn't been successful in convincing the Nylander camp that his offer of employment is a good one, in time for Nylander to be at work on-time.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 14, 2018, 02:21:32 PM
Ian Tulloch posted a really good analysis of RFA's being signed after camp has begun. 

https://theathletic.com/524175/2018/09/14/as-an-rfa-william-nylanders-going-to-be-underpaid-but-the-longer-talks-go-on-the-more-undervalued-he-will-be/

TL;DR;   Typically, it always ends up working out in the teams favour.  Cases in point:  David Pastrnak, Johnny Gadreau, Richard Rakell, Hampus Lindholm

So, when Dubas said they were going to be patient in their negotiation strategy, its probably entirely to drive down the price knowing the best deals get signed late into September/October
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 02:24:33 PM
You may not feel that camp is very important, but obviously every NHL club feels as though it is, and they mandate attendance.  Will it have a bearing on the overall result of season?  Probably not, but it's certainly not the time to still be negotiating.

It seems to happen every year,  more or less, and it doesn't seem as though the players end up being all that negatively affected by it on ice. Beyond that you're just at argumentum ad populum.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on September 14, 2018, 02:32:25 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/09/14/kyle-dubas-on-wanting-a-long-term-deal-for-william-nylander-the-whole-time-im-here-until-they-kick-me-out-one-day-william-is-a-part-of-the-group/
Quote
This is the first RFA contract with Nylander. When youíre setting a tone for this, is it also setting a tone going forward?

Dubas: I think thatís the way a lot of people look at it. But I look at them all separately. We went through it with a few of our own RFAs who were not as long term or high profile. We went through it with Tavares. I think we just have a way weíre going to have to do this if weíre going to keep this rolling and sustain it in the future. For me, it is not about sending a statement or anything like that. Itís about, ďHere is where we are. Here is what we can do. Here is the logic itís based in.Ē We continue to chip away at it. Thatís the way I always look at it.

I know that because this is my first time in this chair, people use that tactic to look at it and say itís him proving himself or sending a message, but itís not really the way that I have approached it. William is a key piece for us and we want to have the best solution possible for everybody. Thatís really our goal.

I've felt pretty stress-free about this particular negotiation.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 14, 2018, 02:39:52 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/09/14/kyle-dubas-on-wanting-a-long-term-deal-for-william-nylander-the-whole-time-im-here-until-they-kick-me-out-one-day-william-is-a-part-of-the-group/
Quote
This is the first RFA contract with Nylander. When youíre setting a tone for this, is it also setting a tone going forward?

Dubas: I think thatís the way a lot of people look at it. But I look at them all separately. We went through it with a few of our own RFAs who were not as long term or high profile. We went through it with Tavares. I think we just have a way weíre going to have to do this if weíre going to keep this rolling and sustain it in the future. For me, it is not about sending a statement or anything like that. Itís about, ďHere is where we are. Here is what we can do. Here is the logic itís based in.Ē We continue to chip away at it. Thatís the way I always look at it.

I know that because this is my first time in this chair, people use that tactic to look at it and say itís him proving himself or sending a message, but itís not really the way that I have approached it. William is a key piece for us and we want to have the best solution possible for everybody. Thatís really our goal.

I've felt pretty stress-free about this particular negotiation.

Good article in the Athletic today by Ian Tulloch showing how recent players who hold out as RFAs end up getting deals which are more team friendly.   The longer this goes, the better it is for the Leafs, if you take recent history as an example.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 14, 2018, 02:55:47 PM
Typically, it always ends up

When something always ends a certain way it's not typical -- it's certain.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 03:03:55 PM
Typically, it always ends up

When something always ends a certain way it's not typical -- it's certain.

The Athletic is re-inventing the way we think about copy editing.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 14, 2018, 03:16:24 PM
You may not feel that camp is very important, but obviously every NHL club feels as though it is, and they mandate attendance.  Will it have a bearing on the overall result of season?  Probably not, but it's certainly not the time to still be negotiating.

It seems to happen every year,  more or less, and it doesn't seem as though the players end up being all that negatively affected by it on ice. Beyond that you're just at argumentum ad populum.

It happens every year to a few players out of 700 or so, sure, but we're not really discussing the frequency at which it occurs, so I don't know why you've brought that up.  And "doesn't seem" and "all that negatively" isn't convincing me of anything.

I don't think suggesting that players get value out of training camp is argumentum ad populum, but you do you.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 03:19:31 PM
It happens every year to a few players out of 700 or so, sure, but we're not really discussing the frequency at which it occurs, so I don't know why you've brought that up.  And "doesn't seem" and "all that negatively" isn't convincing me of anything.

Hey, if you have anything, like a single thing, to support your assertion about the importance of camp beyond "teams think it's important so it must be" which is literally the definition of argumentum ad populum then I am all ears.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Michael on September 14, 2018, 03:22:12 PM
"The gap between Toronto and William Nylander sounds wide. The player doesnít want a bridge deal. Neither Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas nor agent Lewis Gross are talking, but the rumour is the player ask is near Leon Draisaitl territory ($8.5 million AAV). I can see that being true for three reasons."

31 Thoughts (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-examining-erik-karlsson-trade-fallout/)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 14, 2018, 03:26:22 PM
"The gap between Toronto and William Nylander sounds wide. The player doesnít want a bridge deal. Neither Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas nor agent Lewis Gross are talking, but the rumour is the player ask is near Leon Draisaitl territory ($8.5 million AAV). I can see that being true for three reasons."

31 Thoughts (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-examining-erik-karlsson-trade-fallout/)

Where are these "bridge deal" rumors coming from?  Dubas himself stated he was trying to do longer term for Nylander (stated just this afternoon on Leafs lunch).  I don't have any reason to not believe him.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 03:30:59 PM
Where are these "bridge deal" rumors coming from?  Dubas himself stated he was trying to do longer term for Nylander (stated just this afternoon on Leafs lunch).  I don't have any reason to not believe him.

You don't have to not believe him to think this could be true. I'm sure Dubas has tried to sign a longer term deal but rumours of a bridge deal will come up if a contract negotiation with a RFA draws out without a resolution as a compromise.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 14, 2018, 03:34:14 PM
It happens every year to a few players out of 700 or so, sure, but we're not really discussing the frequency at which it occurs, so I don't know why you've brought that up.  And "doesn't seem" and "all that negatively" isn't convincing me of anything.

Hey, if you have anything, like a single thing, to support your assertion about the importance of camp beyond "teams think it's important so it must be" which is literally the definition of argumentum ad populum then I am all ears.

In all 4 major professional sports in North America, every single team has a training camp.  Every one.  You don't think with a little time I couldn't find some quotes of coaches/teams/players talking about missing camp put someone a little behind the curve?

You sure this is the right hill?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 03:39:05 PM
In all 4 major professional sports in North America, every single team has a training camp.  Every one.  You don't think with a little time I couldn't find some quotes of coaches/teams/players talking about missing camp put someone a little behind the curve?

You sure this is the right hill?

I think with the right head of steam and some really solid elbow grease you could find all manner of quotes from people within a system expressing opinions of long held conventional wisdom that reinforces that system.

Don't say I don't believe in you.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 14, 2018, 03:51:36 PM
Typically, it always ends up

When something always ends a certain way it's not typical -- it's certain.

Well, Ian also said that Rasmus Ristolainen's deal was a bad one so its not a certainty.

But his argument there is more that its a bad deal because he got paid for counting stats instead of his overall ability as a d-man.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on September 14, 2018, 07:06:31 PM
I think with the right head of steam and some really solid elbow grease you could find all manner of quotes from people within a system expressing opinions of long held conventional wisdom that reinforces that system.

Interesting. Is there any evidence you have at the ready that this conventional wisdom is faulty?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Highlander on September 14, 2018, 07:51:45 PM
"The gap between Toronto and William Nylander sounds wide. The player doesnít want a bridge deal. Neither Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas nor agent Lewis Gross are talking, but the rumour is the player ask is near Leon Draisaitl territory ($8.5 million AAV). I can see that being true for three reasons."

31 Thoughts (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-examining-erik-karlsson-trade-fallout/)

Where are these "bridge deal" rumors coming from?  Dubas himself stated he was trying to do longer term for Nylander (stated just this afternoon on Leafs lunch).  I don't have any reason to not believe him.
Is Willy being a greedy little Norse piggy?  Hey we all want to maximize our earnings and it is big business. I think he is out of line for 8 or 8.5.  Does he want to be part of what the Leafs are building or not.  I am getting fed up personally. Why can we all settle on 7.25 and move on.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: azzurri63 on September 14, 2018, 08:32:15 PM
"The gap between Toronto and William Nylander sounds wide. The player doesnít want a bridge deal. Neither Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas nor agent Lewis Gross are talking, but the rumour is the player ask is near Leon Draisaitl territory ($8.5 million AAV). I can see that being true for three reasons."

31 Thoughts (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-examining-erik-karlsson-trade-fallout/)

Where are these "bridge deal" rumors coming from?  Dubas himself stated he was trying to do longer term for Nylander (stated just this afternoon on Leafs lunch).  I don't have any reason to not believe him.
Is Willy being a greedy little Norse piggy?  Hey we all want to maximize our earnings and it is big business. I think he is out of line for 8 or 8.5.  Does he want to be part of what the Leafs are building or not.  I am getting fed up personally. Why can we all settle on 7.25 and move on.

7.25 is too much. No more than 6.5 is what I think. Let him sit if the numbers are true. Really going to irk me if after signing Tavares we have problems signing any of the youngsters. What gets me and listening to Dubas back in July you think they would have discussed numbers with the big 3 prior to signing John. Whatever to keep all 4 together. If the 3 young guns had any issues then don't even negotiate ship them off. If Tavares supposedly took less money to go to TO due to the Leafs having a great chance to hoist the cup soon why can't the other 3 do the same. Matthews is in a different category as far as talent compared to Mitch and Willy and be hard to trade him but the other 2 if they are going to play hardball ship them off. Hard to take as I love all 3 but if they are greedy after 2 seasons and are asking too much then ship them off.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 14, 2018, 08:53:42 PM
"The gap between Toronto and William Nylander sounds wide. The player doesnít want a bridge deal. Neither Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas nor agent Lewis Gross are talking, but the rumour is the player ask is near Leon Draisaitl territory ($8.5 million AAV). I can see that being true for three reasons."

31 Thoughts (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-examining-erik-karlsson-trade-fallout/)

Where are these "bridge deal" rumors coming from?  Dubas himself stated he was trying to do longer term for Nylander (stated just this afternoon on Leafs lunch).  I don't have any reason to not believe him.
Is Willy being a greedy little Norse piggy?  Hey we all want to maximize our earnings and it is big business. I think he is out of line for 8 or 8.5.  Does he want to be part of what the Leafs are building or not.  I am getting fed up personally. Why can we all settle on 7.25 and move on.

7.25 is too much. No more than 6.5 is what I think. Let him sit if the numbers are true. Really going to irk me if after signing Tavares we have problems signing any of the youngsters. What gets me and listening to Dubas back in July you think they would have discussed numbers with the big 3 prior to signing John. Whatever to keep all 4 together. If the 3 young guns had any issues then don't even negotiate ship them off. If Tavares supposedly took less money to go to TO due to the Leafs having a great chance to hoist the cup soon why can't the other 3 do the same. Matthews is in a different category as far as talent compared to Mitch and Willy and be hard to trade him but the other 2 if they are going to play hardball ship them off. Hard to take as I love all 3 but if they are greedy after 2 seasons and are asking too much then ship them off.

So you are willing to ship them off?  :)

I get your frustration but I hardly think letting any of the 3 go makes a lick of sense.  It certainly would not make JT happy.  Everything will get worked out with Nylander.  I predict the low 7s, Marner there or a bit above.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 14, 2018, 08:59:30 PM
Nylander's dad was a known douche and no one wanted to play with him.  He was a selfish player with high contract demands just like this.  The apple doesn't typically fall far from the tree.  That was always the chance the Leafs took in drafting Nylander, though.  Now they will just have to deal with it one way or another.  I say let him sit.  The Leafs have more than enough forward depth.  And if Nylander wants to be a baby I say let him do that.  He's only going to lower his value in the future by doing that plus he's not going to get paid this season.  Dubas holds the hammer and he needs to use it, IMO.  I would play hardball with Nylander.  He has elite talent but he is kind of one dimensional and I would not be surprised in the least if he was a ginormous PITA just like his father.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 09:16:55 PM

Welcome to Toronto, home of the most loyal fan base around!
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 14, 2018, 09:22:48 PM
Shouldn't a loyal fan put the team before the player?  Every dollar overspent on Nylander is one not available for others. I hope Dubas sticks to his guns while he has all of the leverage.

Welcome to Toronto, home of the most loyal fan base around!
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 09:28:36 PM
Shouldn't a loyal fan put the team before the player?

Fans can act however they like. But if our interest in players is entirely dependant on what they can do for us then we shouldn't expect them to act selflessly on our behalf either.

Because the truth is Leafs fans don't treat the players very well. Which is probably why, as a rule, the Leafs haven't done particularly well in attracting players here. Which repeats the cycle.

But, you know, it's really worked out great the last few decades so I think more of the same is probably the way to go.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 14, 2018, 10:01:20 PM
IMO the Leafs need to weed this out of Nylander now while he is still young.  Teach him a lesson.  And if he's a primadonna cancer in the locker room, get rid of him.  The Leafs can to just fine for the $7 million they would be paying Nylander.  $7 million will buy them a damn good player.  Perhaps one that is not so defensively flawed and so small.  Or a guy that's a team player and brings out the best in the people around him as opposed to the worst.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 14, 2018, 10:06:29 PM
IMO the Leafs need to weed this out of Nylander now while he is still young.  Teach him a lesson.  And if he's a primadonna cancer in the locker room, get rid of him.  The Leafs can to just fine for the $7 million they would be paying Nylander.  $7 million will buy them a damn good player.  Perhaps one that is not so defensively flawed and so small.  Or a guy that's a team player and brings out the best in the people around him as opposed to the worst.

What a load of utter nonsense. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 14, 2018, 10:18:18 PM
IMO the Leafs need to weed this out of Nylander now while he is still young.  Teach him a lesson.  And if he's a primadonna cancer in the locker room, get rid of him.  The Leafs can to just fine for the $7 million they would be paying Nylander.  $7 million will buy them a damn good player.  Perhaps one that is not so defensively flawed and so small.  Or a guy that's a team player and brings out the best in the people around him as opposed to the worst.

You disappeared for 3 months and in your first 3 posts back you 1) posted completely unsubstantiated rumours that there's off-ice issues that were the reason Matthews didn't get picked to wear a letter, 2) called a players dad a "douche", and 3) called Nylander a "primadonna cancer".

Super glad you're back dude. I don't know how we survived without you.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 14, 2018, 10:23:17 PM
IMO the Leafs need to weed this out of Nylander now while he is still young.  Teach him a lesson.  And if he's a primadonna cancer in the locker room, get rid of him.  The Leafs can to just fine for the $7 million they would be paying Nylander.  $7 million will buy them a damn good player.  Perhaps one that is not so defensively flawed and so small.  Or a guy that's a team player and brings out the best in the people around him as opposed to the worst.

Do you currently have a house in your name?  If you do, I have a great deal for you.  I'm going to buy your house from you for $60,000.  Now don't argue about the price, just because you think it's worth more.  This is a learning experience for you.  You need to learn how to sell a home.  If you don't accept my offer, you are a primadonna cancer in the house selling industry for thinking that your house is worth the same as other comparable houses in the market, and I think you should move to another country.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 10:24:06 PM
Nylander isn't particularly small. He's 6', 190 lbs. That's pretty close to average sized for forwards and roughly the same size as guys like McDavid, Stamkos, Bergeron, etc.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 14, 2018, 10:33:47 PM
Shouldn't a loyal fan put the team before the player?

Fans can act however they like. But if our interest in players is entirely dependant on what they can do for us then we shouldn't expect them to act selflessly on our behalf either.

Because the truth is Leafs fans don't treat the players very well. Which is probably why, as a rule, the Leafs haven't done particularly well in attracting players here. Which repeats the cycle.

But, you know, it's really worked out great the last few decades so I think more of the same is probably the way to go.
How the fans react has 0 impact on whether players come here or not. When you have stable management that can show it knows how to put a team together you attract players. There are fans that turn on you in every city.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 14, 2018, 10:38:02 PM
Shouldn't a loyal fan put the team before the player?

Fans can act however they like. But if our interest in players is entirely dependant on what they can do for us then we shouldn't expect them to act selflessly on our behalf either.

Because the truth is Leafs fans don't treat the players very well. Which is probably why, as a rule, the Leafs haven't done particularly well in attracting players here. Which repeats the cycle.

But, you know, it's really worked out great the last few decades so I think more of the same is probably the way to go.
How the fans react has 0 impact on whether players come here or not. When you have stable management that can show it knows how to put a team together you attract players. There are fans that turn on you in every city.

Except for the Islanders fans.  They handled the Tavares decision with grace and dignity.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 10:42:54 PM
There are fans that turn on you in every city.

I don't think that's true. And they're not as loud about it and, more to the point, fans in a lot of other cities actually wait for a player to do something wrong to turn on them, rather than get mad at player for doing something a lot of other young players do and are under no obligation not to do. Look at some of the vitriol in this thread. You're kidding yourself if you think that's normal. 

But even then, to an extent, you're right that it's not entirely limited to fans here. One of the uglier things about modern sports fandom is how regrettably inhumane it is. Where just about any bad behaviour by players can be justified so long as it doesn't interfere with winning and players can be summarily dismissed the second they aren't exactly to our liking.

Which, you know, again is fine if that's the way someone wants to live their life but fans can't have an entirely transactional relationship with these players and then not expect them to have one with them in return.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 14, 2018, 10:44:33 PM
Except for the Islanders fans.  They handled the Tavares decision with grace and dignity.

This would be a good comparable with the Tavares situation if Islanders fans reacted the way they did only if Tavares hadn't signed with the Leafs but just wanted a little more money than the Islanders were prepared to pay him.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 14, 2018, 10:48:21 PM
Except for the Islanders fans.  They handled the Tavares decision with grace and dignity.

This would be a good comparable with the Tavares situation if Islanders fans reacted the way they did only if Tavares hadn't signed with the Leafs but just wanted a little more money than the Islanders were prepared to pay him.

I'm not going to lie.  I just wanted to be a part of the conversation and I was looking for attention.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: IJustLurkHere on September 15, 2018, 06:56:42 AM
Shouldn't a loyal fan put the team before the player?  Every dollar overspent on Nylander is one not available for others. I hope Dubas sticks to his guns while he has all of the leverage.

Welcome to Toronto, home of the most loyal fan base around!

If Dubas had all the leverage, Nylander would already have signed.

Interesting idea that being a fan means supporting the guy in the suit over the guy in the jersey. Personally im a hockey obsessive who knows the cap situation, but I donít tune in for the math.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 15, 2018, 07:47:48 AM
I think you can support both management and players...it's not like anyone is forcing fans to take a side here.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2018, 08:24:39 AM
There are fans that turn on you in every city.

I don't think that's true. And they're not as loud about it and, more to the point, fans in a lot of other cities actually wait for a player to do something wrong to turn on them, rather than get mad at player for doing something a lot of other young players do and are under no obligation not to do. Look at some of the vitriol in this thread. You're kidding yourself if you think that's normal. 

But even then, to an extent, you're right that it's not entirely limited to fans here. One of the uglier things about modern sports fandom is how regrettably inhumane it is. Where just about any bad behaviour by players can be justified so long as it doesn't interfere with winning and players can be summarily dismissed the second they aren't exactly to our liking.

Which, you know, again is fine if that's the way someone wants to live their life but fans can't have an entirely transactional relationship with these players and then not expect them to have one with them in return.
It's way more cut throat now due to the hard cap. Fans get upset at players if they're perceived to be "too greedy" and won't fit into a nice salary structure within their own team. Back in the day with no cap you could easily just say "pay player X what he's worth to keep this great team together you cheap team".

Of course it's on management to make the right decisions on players, but if you have a bunch of stars that get market value in salary, you'll also have a bunch of guys making under a million to balance it out. The cap has made it easy for fans to blame players cause the fans see the limit of the cap and know they can only afford so many stars.

But as to players choosing a destination I think the order is:

1) most money
2) chance to win
3) other factors (family, lifestyle etc)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 15, 2018, 08:44:26 AM
No one can force anyone to sign , that's not how leverage works. Dubas has the leverage on length and amount of contract. 
Shouldn't a loyal fan put the team before the player?  Every dollar overspent on Nylander is one not available for others. I hope Dubas sticks to his guns while he has all of the leverage.

Welcome to Toronto, home of the most loyal fan base around!

If Dubas had all the leverage, Nylander would already have signed.

Interesting idea that being a fan means supporting the guy in the suit over the guy in the jersey. Personally im a hockey obsessive who knows the cap situation, but I donít tune in for the math.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2018, 09:47:06 AM
No one can force anyone to sign , that's not how leverage works. Dubas has the leverage on length and amount of contract. 
Shouldn't a loyal fan put the team before the player?  Every dollar overspent on Nylander is one not available for others. I hope Dubas sticks to his guns while he has all of the leverage.

Welcome to Toronto, home of the most loyal fan base around!

If Dubas had all the leverage, Nylander would already have signed.

Interesting idea that being a fan means supporting the guy in the suit over the guy in the jersey. Personally im a hockey obsessive who knows the cap situation, but I donít tune in for the math.
Nylander has few options. Once he starts missing cheques he'll want to sign. Hopefully it's resolved before that point though
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 15, 2018, 09:59:50 AM
IMO the Leafs need to weed this out of Nylander now while he is still young.  Teach him a lesson.  And if he's a primadonna cancer in the locker room, get rid of him.  The Leafs can to just fine for the $7 million they would be paying Nylander.  $7 million will buy them a damn good player.  Perhaps one that is not so defensively flawed and so small.  Or a guy that's a team player and brings out the best in the people around him as opposed to the worst.

You disappeared for 3 months and in your first 3 posts back you 1) posted completely unsubstantiated rumours that there's off-ice issues that were the reason Matthews didn't get picked to wear a letter, 2) called a players dad a "douche", and 3) called Nylander a "primadonna cancer".

Super glad you're back dude. I don't know how we survived without you.
I have chosen to stay away from what is largely a negative forum.  You clearly prefer your echo chamber and you can't stand hearing opinions that differ from your own.  That is a clear sign of insecurity about yourself.

I'm not going to bother wasting my time substantiating what I have posted.  There is evidence out there.  I read the news and multiple forums daily.  And quite frankly I don't give a flying **** what you think of me.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on September 15, 2018, 10:20:15 AM
I remember there was some article out there awhile back about how a few players didn't like Micheal Nylander much, but never read anything about William being bad in the room or anything like that.

Edit - found the article. Don't know the author's credibility.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/big-read-maple-leafs-risked-drafting-william-nylander/
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2018, 10:45:57 AM
I remember there was some article out there awhile back about how a few players didn't like Micheal Nylander much, but never read anything about William being bad in the room or anything like that.

Edit - found the article. Don't know the author's credibility.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/big-read-maple-leafs-risked-drafting-william-nylander/
I remember the talk about Nylander's character around the time he was drafted but I also remember that Shanahan had a personal connection in that he knows Michael Nylander and he knew William from when he was younger and didn't think there were any character issues to worry about. There's no doubt that Shanahan would also be involved in the big contract decisions so I'm confident this will be resolved amicably.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 15, 2018, 11:14:50 AM
But as to players choosing a destination I think the order is:

1) most money
2) chance to win
3) other factors (family, lifestyle etc)

I'm not saying I disagree with the order here, I'm saying the order is the way it is in part because players appreciate that the nature of the business is that they're the only ones who will take their own interests to heart.

So Nylander, in sitting out to try and get the contract he wants, isn't revealing "poor character" or other garbage as has now been said multiple times in this thread. He's just looking after his own interests which is understandable given the way fans and team management will look after theirs. This stalemate doesn't say anything about Nylander that it doesn't also say about Dubas.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Highlander on September 15, 2018, 12:00:33 PM
IMO the Leafs need to weed this out of Nylander now while he is still young.  Teach him a lesson.  And if he's a primadonna cancer in the locker room, get rid of him.  The Leafs can to just fine for the $7 million they would be paying Nylander.  $7 million will buy them a damn good player.  Perhaps one that is not so defensively flawed and so small.  Or a guy that's a team player and brings out the best in the people around him as opposed to the worst.

You disappeared for 3 months and in your first 3 posts back you 1) posted completely unsubstantiated rumours that there's off-ice issues that were the reason Matthews didn't get picked to wear a letter, 2) called a players dad a "douche", and 3) called Nylander a "primadonna cancer".

Super glad you're back dude. I don't know how we survived without you.
I have chosen to stay away from what is largely a negative forum.  You clearly prefer your echo chamber and you can't stand hearing opinions that differ from your own.  That is a clear sign of insecurity about yourself.

I'm not going to bother wasting my time substantiating what I have posted.  There is evidence out there.  I read the news and multiple forums daily.  And quite frankly I don't give a flying **** what you think of me.
I am no psychoanalyst, but your choice of moniker on this site may point towards your insecurity about yourself. Look in the mirror Buddy before you include me in any of your stupid blanket statements. I don't find this site negative, everyone is entitled to there wrong opinion is an old saying. Lighten up, its only hockey, I just lost two good friends in their early 60's, one hit by a drunk while he was riding a bike, and the other fell over with a Heart  attack last week. Life is whats important Sickbeast.  Sports is a diversion
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: lc9 on September 15, 2018, 01:11:34 PM
I got no problem with Nylander wanting as much as he can get.  Also appreciate Dubas trying to sign Willy for the contract that best fits the need of the leafs. 

This will get resolved sooner than later.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 15, 2018, 01:20:44 PM
I got no problem with Nylander wanting as much as he can get.  Also appreciate Dubas trying to sign Willy for the contract that best fits the need of the leafs. 

Well, and that's the thing that still needs to be centred. People keep trying to make this about Nylander wanting a certain amount of money based on what is one reported rumour about what his camp is asking(which, even if true, may just be a negotiating position)

But as has been repeated, people keep ignoring the issue of term. Even if people want to argue that Nylander has some responsibility to sign with the Leafs at a certain amount, there's no possible rationale for saying that Nylander has to sign for a certain amount and for the length of term the Leafs want.

My personal guess is that whatever people think is the right number for Nylander from 6 even up to the 8ish reported, he'd probably sign a deal for that amount depending on the term. The issue is them trying to figure out a long term number that both satisfies the team's interest in managing the cap but also Nylander's interest in not selling his future growth short.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on September 15, 2018, 02:10:32 PM
It's easy to say this now that it's dragged on a bit, but I had a feeling that there'd be a touch of fanbase blowback. Unfortunately, the first major contract being negotiated is the one directly after Tavares' signing, in which he took slightly under market to make it work for the leafs, setting the tone. Now, each of the players are "expected" to do the same.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 15, 2018, 02:31:22 PM
IMO the Leafs need to weed this out of Nylander now while he is still young.  Teach him a lesson.  And if he's a primadonna cancer in the locker room, get rid of him.  The Leafs can to just fine for the $7 million they would be paying Nylander.  $7 million will buy them a damn good player.  Perhaps one that is not so defensively flawed and so small.  Or a guy that's a team player and brings out the best in the people around him as opposed to the worst.

You disappeared for 3 months and in your first 3 posts back you 1) posted completely unsubstantiated rumours that there's off-ice issues that were the reason Matthews didn't get picked to wear a letter, 2) called a players dad a "douche", and 3) called Nylander a "primadonna cancer".

Super glad you're back dude. I don't know how we survived without you.
I have chosen to stay away from what is largely a negative forum.  You clearly prefer your echo chamber and you can't stand hearing opinions that differ from your own.  That is a clear sign of insecurity about yourself.

I'm not going to bother wasting my time substantiating what I have posted.  There is evidence out there.  I read the news and multiple forums daily.  And quite frankly I don't give a flying **** what you think of me.
I am no psychoanalyst, but your choice of moniker on this site may point towards your insecurity about yourself. Look in the mirror Buddy before you include me in any of your stupid blanket statements. I don't find this site negative, everyone is entitled to there wrong opinion is an old saying. Lighten up, its only hockey, I just lost two good friends in their early 60's, one hit by a drunk while he was riding a bike, and the other fell over with a Heart  attack last week. Life is whats important Sickbeast.  Sports is a diversion
LOL you ask me not to include you and then you say something negative.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Highlander on September 15, 2018, 03:02:59 PM
negative and positive are just part of the same electron, don't know what I said had a negative charge unless talking about real life is negative to you. Loss is part of life.
Just trying to put some things in perspective to the beast who may be sick.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2018, 03:31:21 PM
It's easy to say this now that it's dragged on a bit, but I had a feeling that there'd be a touch of fanbase blowback. Unfortunately, the first major contract being negotiated is the one directly after Tavares' signing, in which he took slightly under market to make it work for the leafs, setting the tone. Now, each of the players are "expected" to do the same.
It's the issue every team faces. Unless you can convince stars to take slightly less, or you get a guy long term who then over performs on his deal (see Kadri), you're really in tough when trying to keep a great set of players together.  I get the whole argument that players should get as much as they can, the owners are super rich and the players deserve more money since they're the product, but the reality of the cap is what it is. Unless the union can get a better deal next cba with players able to make more money overall, this is going to be a problem for a long time.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: IJustLurkHere on September 15, 2018, 04:17:48 PM
No one can force anyone to sign , that's not how leverage works. Dubas has the leverage on length and amount of contract. 
Shouldn't a loyal fan put the team before the player?  Every dollar overspent on Nylander is one not available for others. I hope Dubas sticks to his guns while he has all of the leverage.

Welcome to Toronto, home of the most loyal fan base around!

If Dubas had all the leverage, Nylander would already have signed.

Interesting idea that being a fan means supporting the guy in the suit over the guy in the jersey. Personally im a hockey obsessive who knows the cap situation, but I donít tune in for the math.
Nylander has few options. Once he starts missing cheques he'll want to sign. Hopefully it's resolved before that point though

Nylander may not have many options, but itís not like the leafs do either.... itís not like Tyler Ennis is a feasible replacement.Sign, trade, sit - those are the scenarios, and trade or sit are just as bad for the Leafs - who want to win - as they are for Nylander.

Leverage is not a zero sum game.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 15, 2018, 04:37:59 PM
It's the issue every team faces. Unless you can convince stars to take slightly less, or you get a guy long term who then over performs on his deal (see Kadri), you're really in tough when trying to keep a great set of players together.  I get the whole argument that players should get as much as they can, the owners are super rich and the players deserve more money since they're the product, but the reality of the cap is what it is.

But the players didn't want the cap. So why criticize them for not putting their own interests as secondary to the system that super-rich teams chose?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 15, 2018, 06:35:26 PM
The funny thing is that a term of two years makes sense from the standpoint that Marleu's contract cones off the books and by then Marner and Matthews would be resigned.  I think the Matthews deal is going to be the easiest of the three.  After that Marner and Nylander fall somewhere under there based on their performances. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 15, 2018, 06:36:41 PM
So what happens if the Leafs can't sign Nylander?  Is he free to sign with another team?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Deebo on September 15, 2018, 06:42:58 PM
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2018, 06:53:22 PM
It's the issue every team faces. Unless you can convince stars to take slightly less, or you get a guy long term who then over performs on his deal (see Kadri), you're really in tough when trying to keep a great set of players together.  I get the whole argument that players should get as much as they can, the owners are super rich and the players deserve more money since they're the product, but the reality of the cap is what it is.

But the players didn't want the cap. So why criticize them for not putting their own interests as secondary to the system that super-rich teams chose?
Cause I'm a Leafs fan and want the best team possible under the current system. If that means players don't get as much as they should then so be it. As a normal person I can't even fathom the amount of money the stars get cause it's more than me or my entire family will earn in a lifetime.     I realize the current system isn't fair for the players but there's nothing I can do about it so I just want the Leafs to have the best team they can.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 15, 2018, 07:05:36 PM
I realize the current system isn't fair for the players but there's nothing I can do about it so I just want the Leafs to have the best team they can.

So the system isn't fair for them but rather than blame the people who locked them out to unilaterally impose that system in order to protect their billions you're going to blame the people being exploited because they aren't willing to be exploited further for your own interests?

Well if that isn't the last 150 years of capitalism in a nutshell I don't know what is.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2018, 07:07:19 PM
I realize the current system isn't fair for the players but there's nothing I can do about it so I just want the Leafs to have the best team they can.

So the system isn't fair for them but rather than blame the people who locked them out to unilaterally impose that system in order to protect their billions you're going to blame the people being exploited because they aren't willing to be exploited further for your own interests?

Well if that isn't the last 150 years of capitalism in a nutshell I don't know what is.
What would rather I do? Stop watching hockey in protest?

Į\_(ツ)_/Į
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 15, 2018, 07:10:07 PM
What would rather I do? Stop watching hockey in protest?

Or watch hockey but not blame William Nylander for trying to do the best thing for himself in the unfair system that the teams designed?

Or, and bear with me here because I'm going to go to some weird places, watch hockey but rather than look at things primarily through the lens of wins and losses that you ultimately have no control over but rather invest in it as a communal enterprise where the value is in the familial and friendly bonds that a shared passion can give a sense of structure and tradition to? Where players are seen as temporary parts of that community whose well being we care for beyond whether or not they can serve our own immediate interests? All the while still caring about the outcomes as a secondary concern?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2018, 07:14:39 PM
What would rather I do? Stop watching hockey in protest?

Or watch hockey but not blame William Nylander for trying to do the best thing for himself in the unfair system that the teams designed?
Can you point to anywhere in this thread where I "blame" Nylander or any player asking for money?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 15, 2018, 07:26:34 PM
What would rather I do? Stop watching hockey in protest?

Or watch hockey but not blame William Nylander for trying to do the best thing for himself in the unfair system that the teams designed?
Can you point to anywhere in this thread where I "blame" Nylander or any player asking for money?

You've lost me a bit. When I said:

Quote
So why criticize them for not putting their own interests as secondary to the system that super-rich teams chose?

You didn't say "I'm not doing that" or "Nobody is doing that" you said:

Quote
Cause I'm a Leafs fan and want the best team possible under the current system.

So when i reply with "Maybe don't do that" you now say "I'm not". But I didn't say you were. If you look back to what started this I said: 

Quote
So Nylander, in sitting out to try and get the contract he wants, isn't revealing "poor character" or other garbage as has now been said multiple times in this thread.

So this line of discussion isn't about you, I wasn't referring to the people who, in this thread, have said negative things about Nylander personally and insulted his family for the unforgivable crime of *checks notes* not having signed a contract with a team he's under no obligation to sign a contract with.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 15, 2018, 07:33:33 PM
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2018, 07:38:13 PM
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Kadri only makes $4.5 and is on a great deal. Next season both Gardiner and Hainsey are up so that adds up to $7M. Of course you'd have to replace them with 2 guys on ELCs...if Dermott can replace Gardiner and maybe Lilegejren makes the jump next season they might be able to do it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 15, 2018, 08:29:55 PM
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.

Cut bait? Why is there any animosity towards Nylander at all? He's just playing the business side of the game. I'm sure it will work out in the end. That he's not signed and training camp has begun is not a big deal.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 15, 2018, 08:32:35 PM
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Kadri only makes $4.5 and is on a great deal. Next season both Gardiner and Hainsey are up so that adds up to $7M. Of course you'd have to replace them with 2 guys on ELCs...if Dermott can replace Gardiner and maybe Lilegejren makes the jump next season they might be able to do it.

Hainsey will not be resigned.  The Leafs may need to let Gardiner walk too, but Nylander at 7ish is what's going to happen and it's fine. And 7 is closer to 4.5 than it is 11.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2018, 08:45:26 PM
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Kadri only makes $4.5 and is on a great deal. Next season both Gardiner and Hainsey are up so that adds up to $7M. Of course you'd have to replace them with 2 guys on ELCs...if Dermott can replace Gardiner and maybe Lilegejren makes the jump next season they might be able to do it.

Hainsey will not be resigned.  The Leafs may need to let Gardiner walk too, but Nylander at 7ish is what's going to happen and it's fine. And 7 is closer to 4.5 than it is 11.
Yeah that's what I'm saying, Leafs could make a Nylander contract of $7M work, if they can somehow trade Marleau next off-season even better since that's another $6.25 off the cap. Of course you'll need allot of internal options to step up like Holl, Carrick, Rosen on D, Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom and maybe even Bracco on forward to round out the cheap roster options
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 15, 2018, 08:49:39 PM
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Kadri only makes $4.5 and is on a great deal. Next season both Gardiner and Hainsey are up so that adds up to $7M. Of course you'd have to replace them with 2 guys on ELCs...if Dermott can replace Gardiner and maybe Lilegejren makes the jump next season they might be able to do it.

Hainsey will not be resigned.  The Leafs may need to let Gardiner walk too, but Nylander at 7ish is what's going to happen and it's fine. And 7 is closer to 4.5 than it is 11.
Yeah that's what I'm saying, Leafs could make a Nylander contract of $7M work, if they can somehow trade Marleau next off-season even better since that's another $6.25 off the cap. Of course you'll need allot of internal options to step up like Holl, Carrick, Rosen on D, Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom and maybe even Bracco on forward to round out the cheap roster options

It definitely part of the plan to take advantage of young cheap talent. Marleau will also definitely be a topic next off season.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: AvroArrow on September 15, 2018, 09:11:33 PM
I'd easily pay 7M over 7 or 8 years for nylander.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: freer on September 15, 2018, 10:28:02 PM
IMO He is worth 6.3 at the most.
He is not worth 7 plus.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 15, 2018, 11:30:02 PM
IMO He is worth 6.3 at the most.
He is not worth 7 plus.

Others have mentioned this at times as well, but term is just as important as the cap hit here. You can't discuss one without the other. Nylander at $7mil on a 5 or 6 year deal? I dunno, maybe. But Nylander at $7mil on a 7 or 8 year deal? Yeah, you're probably overpaying for a season or two but after that that contract is gonna start to look like an absolute steal for the remainder of it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Hobbes on September 15, 2018, 11:57:27 PM
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Kadri only makes $4.5 and is on a great deal. Next season both Gardiner and Hainsey are up so that adds up to $7M. Of course you'd have to replace them with 2 guys on ELCs...if Dermott can replace Gardiner and maybe Lilegejren makes the jump next season they might be able to do it.

Hainsey will not be resigned.  The Leafs may need to let Gardiner walk too, but Nylander at 7ish is what's going to happen and it's fine. And 7 is closer to 4.5 than it is 11.
Yeah that's what I'm saying, Leafs could make a Nylander contract of $7M work, if they can somehow trade Marleau next off-season even better since that's another $6.25 off the cap. Of course you'll need allot of internal options to step up like Holl, Carrick, Rosen on D, Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom and maybe even Bracco on forward to round out the cheap roster options

It definitely part of the plan to take advantage of young cheap talent. Marleau will also definitely be a topic next off season.

Doesn't Marleau have a NMC? If so, he's probably not all that eager to move unless he has a shiny new Stanley Cup ring on his finger from this year.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 12:35:21 AM

The contracts I keep coming back to as comps are the Scheifele, Mackinnon and Monahan deals and I think when you dig at them they actually support some of what we're hearing about Nylander's ask if a 7-8 year deal is really on the table.

Scheifele signed his 8 year extension at 8.39% of the cap. In today's dollars that's about 6.67 per. Mackinnon(7 years) at 8.63% which is 6.86 per.  Monahan(also 7 years) signed his at 8.73%, or 6.94 per. Sort of interestingly, I think it sorts out nicely as by production over their first three years it's the same order:

Scheifele: 144 points
Mackinnon: 153 points
Monahan: 159 points

Nylander, if you pro-rate his first year out, would have clocked 170 points over his first three seasons.

Anyways, so that means that, per point Monahan got roughly .055% of the cap on his extension, Mackinnon got .056% and Scheifele, who was the only one who signed an 8 as opposed to a 7 year deal, did the best at .058. 

So by using these comps what would Nylander figure to get? Well, at the Monahan rate it's 9.26% of the cap or 7.26 million, use Mackinnon's rate it's 7.52 million and use Scheifele's and it's 7.84 million.

This is a simplification of things but I really think that if Dubas is pushing an 8 year deal than just going by that Scheifele comp the 8 million dollar a year ask probably came from this kind of thinking as opposed to just trying to pin it to the Draisaitl deal. Either way, I think it's tough to look at his first three years and not see that 7-8 million is at the very least a justifiable ask when really looking at the comps.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 16, 2018, 05:54:49 AM
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Kadri only makes $4.5 and is on a great deal. Next season both Gardiner and Hainsey are up so that adds up to $7M. Of course you'd have to replace them with 2 guys on ELCs...if Dermott can replace Gardiner and maybe Lilegejren makes the jump next season they might be able to do it.

Hainsey will not be resigned.  The Leafs may need to let Gardiner walk too, but Nylander at 7ish is what's going to happen and it's fine. And 7 is closer to 4.5 than it is 11.
Yeah that's what I'm saying, Leafs could make a Nylander contract of $7M work, if they can somehow trade Marleau next off-season even better since that's another $6.25 off the cap. Of course you'll need allot of internal options to step up like Holl, Carrick, Rosen on D, Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom and maybe even Bracco on forward to round out the cheap roster options

It definitely part of the plan to take advantage of young cheap talent. Marleau will also definitely be a topic next off season.

Doesn't Marleau have a NMC? If so, he's probably not all that eager to move unless he has a shiny new Stanley Cup ring on his finger from this year.

He does. Which is why it will be an interesting topic. Will he still be performing? Will his contract hold the Leafs back? Will he retire or rather be 'injured'?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: disco on September 16, 2018, 12:53:18 PM
I'm anticipating an "internal-cap" moving forward with Willy, Mitchy, Auston and beyond, as many more learned pundits have pontificated. If you're interesting in shaving a million off market-value in order to be surrounded by elite players and cheap young talent in perpetual contention for cups for the next decade, then by all means, please do business with The Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward. If you need full market value at all costs, well, all the best to you. Some player's priorities are a bit different. Kyle said something similar fielding questions at his alma mater the other day along the lines of being able to keep this core of young talent together long term.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 01:01:10 PM
If you're interesting in shaving a million off market-value in order to be surrounded by elite players and cheap young talent in perpetual contention for cups for the next decade, then by all means, please do business with The Toronto Maple Leafs moving forward.

That might not be the best negotiating tact when the big contracts they're negotiating are with the three guys who make up the bulk of the "elite talent" the Leafs have.

If Marner, Nylander and Matthews all want market value you're going to what...trade them all? Or keep trying to sell Auston Matthews on the fact that if he signs with the Leafs he'll get to play with great young players like Auston Matthews?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Highlander on September 16, 2018, 02:18:14 PM
Its funny that our phycology is so similar, when we go to sell our homes we think the value is so far over market, just because its ours, then we settle for market or close to it.

Willie's camp are probably thinking along the same terms, I am worth more because it is me and I am one of the best that may ever play this game.  And he may well be proven out as so but if Pasternak is making what 6.5M then why does Willie think he is worth so much more?

I just can't see him sitting at home much longer while all his "Buds" are playing the game they all love.  I understand this is a business, but it is starting to leave a bad taste in my mouth, don't know about you. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 16, 2018, 02:22:52 PM
Its funny that our phycology is so similar, when we go to sell our homes we think the value is so far over market, just because its ours, then we settle for market or close to it.

Willie's camp are probably thinking along the same terms, I am worth more because it is me and I am one of the best that may ever play this game.  And he may well be proven out as so but if Pasternak is making what 6.5M then why does Willie think he is worth so much more?

I just can't see him sitting at home much longer while all his "Buds" are playing the game they all love.  I understand this is a business, but it is starting to leave a bad taste in my mouth, don't know about you.

I mean it's the reality around the league.  Players realize there are limits to how many huge contracts you can have on one team.  The true stars will make their money regardless, it's a matter of whether they want to try and stay on a team with a good chance of winning.  They CAN sign all the big guys like Matthews etc to huge contracts, but the players have to realize that anyone below the top 2 lines will be on league minimum salaries in that case.  You can't have 4-5 players making $10M or more, it's just not going to work.  So either they realize that reality in Toronto, or they realize it as they're all split up to separate teams and earn the max amounts they can while surrounded with lesser talent. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 02:24:36 PM
And he may well be proven out as so but if Pasternak is making what 6.5M then why does Willie think he is worth so much more?

I just wrote a whole long post about what the thinking behind his ask might be. It was good. I did math and everything.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 02:38:07 PM

Also, re: Pastrnak, Nylander's PPG on his ELC is higher and he's a C and etc, etc, etc.

So while I'm sure it's a comparison that the Leafs are going to try and lean on heavily in negotiations, I'm not sure it's as good here as people want it to be.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on September 16, 2018, 02:58:15 PM
Well, according to Nik's excellent math and sleuthing skills, $8x8 for Nylander isn't out of the question.  The only thing we really don't know is what Nylander is really asking for, and what the Leafs are really offering.  If we did, then our vitriol could be aimed more accurately. 

If the Leafs are going to try and sell their RFA's on touchy feely unicorns and rainbows "take one for the team" "don't you want to be part of something grand?" scheme, then I think they will be sadly disappointed. 

They may be able to pull on the sentimental heart strings of home town boys like Tavares, but guys like Nylander really couldn't give a crap about the Leafs and if they ever win a cup. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on September 16, 2018, 03:00:17 PM
I just wrote a whole long post about what the thinking behind his ask might be. It was good. I did math and everything.

Yeah it was, as were the others you wrote before. I thought Iíd have to do a lot of the heavy lifting in this thread to stump for Nylander, but his performance speaks for itself pretty plainly, despite the narratives the media and fan base concoct in the absence of information.

Nylander outperforming most of his comps needs to also take into consideration his lower TOI, and generally fettered deployment for stretches of the seasons heís played. This is a high high high end player; imagine what his numbers would be like if he was deployed like Bozak.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 16, 2018, 03:05:59 PM
Well, according to Nik's excellent math and sleuthing skills, $8x8 for Nylander isn't out of the question.  The only thing we really don't know is what Nylander is really asking for, and what the Leafs are really offering.  If we did, then our vitriol could be aimed more accurately. 

If the Leafs are going to try and sell their RFA's on touchy feely unicorns and rainbows "take one for the team" "don't you want to be part of something grand?" scheme, then I think they will be sadly disappointed. 

They may be able to pull on the sentimental heart strings of home town boys like Tavares, but guys like Nylander really couldn't give a crap about the Leafs and if they ever win a cup.
I'm not tied to any one player in particular, I just want the Leafs to win the Cup. If they get to a point where Nylander is missing regular season games and won't take a salary that's going to work for the club I have no issue if they look to move him. You'd be able to do pretty well in a trade in getting back a young prospect and pick and hope that one of Johnsson / Kapanen / other pick up the slack left by Nylander on a way cheaper deal. It's sad but it's the reality. Other teams get players to all "fall in" on a team salary structure, why should the Leafs be any different?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 03:08:21 PM
Actually, if you do the same % of the cap per point calculation that I did with the Monahan, Mackinnon and Scheifele deals for Pastrnak then Nylander actually does just as well.

Pastrnak got .072 of the cap per point over his ELC. Without pro-rating Nylander, because they played roughly the same number of games, at .072 of the cap per point he'd be at 9.75% of the cap or 7.75 million per.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 03:18:25 PM
Other teams get players to all "fall in" on a team salary structure, why should the Leafs be any different?

A few things there:

1. I think Nylander on a long term deal at 7-8 million would fall in to a team salary structure. Marner will probably get roughly the same and Matthews will get more. So if the 4 big deals the Leafs have go:

Matthews: 12 per
Tavares: 11 per
Marner: 8 per
Nylander: 7.5 per

How is that not a team structure?

2. On the other hand a lot of pretty successful teams also paid their top young players pretty fair rates. When Doughty got his second contract it was at 14% of the cap. Ovechkin and Backstrom got 16 and 11% respectively. The Toews and Kane second deals that everyone remembers as being super team friendly were still 11% of the cap. Malkin and Crosby got 15 and 17 percent respectively. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 16, 2018, 03:23:58 PM
Other teams get players to all "fall in" on a team salary structure, why should the Leafs be any different?

A few things there:

1. I think Nylander on a long term deal at 7-8 million would fall in to a team salary structure. Marner will probably get roughly the same and Matthews will get more. So if the 4 big deals the Leafs have go:

Matthews: 12 per
Tavares: 11 per
Marner: 8 per
Nylander: 7.5 per

How is that not a team structure?

2. On the other hand a lot of pretty successful teams also paid their top young players pretty fair rates. When Doughty got his second contract it was at 14% of the cap. Ovechkin and Backstrom got 16 and 11% respectively. The Toews and Kane second deals that everyone remembers as being super team friendly were still 11% of the cap. Malkin and Crosby got 15 and 17 percent respectively.
It's a question of how many guys are in that upper echelon of salary. Nylander at under 8 is probably doable but over 8 becomes problematic especially since Marner could have a big year and then ask for even more than that next year.

So say Nylander gets 8, Marner then asks for 9+, you're suddenly extremely top heavy. I'm sure the Leafs have done multiple scenarios with cap hits and cap projections and know exactly what they need to make it work. Considering the deal isn't done yet, it means to me that Nylander's camp is over whatever number Dubas and company have figured out.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 03:34:51 PM

Sorry but one more comparison to a mystery player just because I think it's especially illustrative.

The mystery player signed his 2nd deal coming off two seasons where he scored 121 points in 161 games. Nylander, to refresh everyone's memory, is coming off 122 points in 163 games. So virtually identical numbers.

That said, our mystery player did it while playing almost 3000 minutes in total ice time and more than 600 minutes of PP ice time. Nylander got about 2600 minutes of ice time and only 350 or so PP minutes.

Our mystery player signed a six year second deal that was frequently cited as one of the most team friendly second contracts ever signed. If Nylander signed a contract for a similar % of the cap it would be 6.8 million per.

Anyone want to take a guess at our mystery player?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on September 16, 2018, 04:12:51 PM

Sorry but one more comparison to a mystery player just because I think it's especially illustrative.

The mystery player signed his 2nd deal coming off two seasons where he scored 121 points in 161 games. Nylander, to refresh everyone's memory, is coming off 122 points in 163 games. So virtually identical numbers.

That said, our mystery player did it while playing almost 3000 minutes in total ice time and more than 600 minutes of PP ice time. Nylander got about 2600 minutes of ice time and only 350 or so PP minutes.

Our mystery player signed a six year second deal that was frequently cited as one of the most team friendly second contracts ever signed. If Nylander signed a contract for a similar % of the cap it would be 6.8 million per.

Anyone want to take a guess at our mystery player?

(https://46wvda23y0nl13db2j3bl1yx-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/DhDOog6W4AAaSHi-696x467.jpg)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on September 16, 2018, 04:21:11 PM
Anyone want to take a guess at our mystery player?

1. Your mystery player played with linemates that were... let's just say a little less impressive than Matthews.
2. All your comparisons are based on point totals. Is there no other relevant metrics that make any difference? I can't imagine that Bergeron, for example, is valued simply for his point output.
3. I'd be just fine with Nylander at 6.8M. On what contract line do I forge his name?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 05:05:59 PM
1. Your mystery player played with linemates that were... let's just say a little less impressive than Matthews.

Yes. Not much less impressive than Hyman but it's a fair point. That said, almost twice as much PP time would seem to go a ways to balancing that. Anyways my point isn't necessarily that Nylander is as good as Tavares, just that Nylander is really freakin' good and even the super team friendly comparisons would have Nylander being paid more than what some people think should be the max they offer. 

2. All your comparisons are based on point totals. Is there no other relevant metrics that make any difference? I can't imagine that Bergeron, for example, is valued simply for his point output.

Of the guys I've compared Nylander to I don't think there are any Bergerons there. Unless I've missed something I don't think any of them had regular PK time or possession numbers that wildly outpaced Nylander. None of them were face-off wizards(Nylander actually compares really favourably there). We can debate line combinations, sure, but most of the guys I've mentioned did pretty well there(Hey Pastrnak) and almost all of them had significant edges in ice time.

3. I'd be just fine with Nylander at 6.8M. On what contract line do I forge his name?

I think there's a lot of Leafs fans who'd be happy with the team signing deals that only read as being super team-friendly. The extent to which that's a reasonable expectation is less certain.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 16, 2018, 05:07:54 PM
As was referenced here by the link posted to The article by The Athletic on RFAs/Nylander situation, an RFA does not have leeway in contract negotiations which in part explains why many of the RFAs mentioned were "underpaid".  The longer it sits out, the better for the team and not the player.

It looks more like the Nylander situation will drag out way into the month going into next -- usually the case with other holdout RFAs as examples.

This is probably not lost on Nylander:
Quote
RFAs in their young 20s who produced around a point per game in their contract year have historically earned at least 10 per cent of the salary cap when they sign a long-term extension, with most forwards earning closer to 11 per cent.

But...

Quote
Over the past decade, every forward who scored at a 0.90 point-per-game rate in their contract year earned at least 10 per cent of the salary cap at the time of their long-term extension. The only two exceptions are Gaudreau and Pastrnak.

This works to the Leafs' advantage:
Quote
Forwards who score in the 0.60 points-per-game range tend to be worth around 6.5 per cent of the salary cap on average. With the salary cap rising to $73-million in 2016-17, thatís roughly $4.7-million, which is right around what Nazem Kadri signed for that offseason (a contract that has turned into quite the sweetheart deal for Toronto.

Many players of Nylander's age do not peak until a few years later which means the best is yet to come from Nylander in the point production category.

My conclusion:
$6.95-7.5M/6/7yrs with a ch @ 8.5% is not unreasonable.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on September 16, 2018, 05:15:36 PM
Just as an aside, another of the marquee RFA's in the same sort of boat as Nylander just signed a 2-year bridge deal.

Josh Morrissey 2 x $3.15
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 05:15:50 PM
It's a question of how many guys are in that upper echelon of salary. Nylander at under 8 is probably doable but over 8 becomes problematic especially since Marner could have a big year and then ask for even more than that next year.

Ok, but that seems like a very different issue. First you were talking about guys working in a team salary structure, not just the perils of a team being relatively top heavy in their cap distribution.

Having four guys like Marner, Nylander, Matthews and Tavares was always going to present challenges from a cap management perspective. I don't think it's fair to take Dubas' decision to build the team that way as a reason to expect the guys on the team to just automatically decide that means they should want to sacrifice their own earnings in that aim and I'm not sure other teams have sold their guys on that concept.

So say Nylander gets 8, Marner then asks for 9+, you're suddenly extremely top heavy.

Sure, but I don't know if it's unworkable. If the four guys at the top, once extensions are signed, work out to 40 million in total(8 for Nylander, 9 for Marner, 11 for Tavares, 12 for Matthews) then if the cap is at 82 million next year then those 4 would represent 48.7% of the team's cap. By comparison, when Pittsburgh won the cup in 2016 their top four of Malkin, Crosby, Letang and Kessel were 45.5% of the cap.

So I think provided a certain amount of cap growth it wouldn't be too long until the Leafs big four, even at 10 million average cap hit, represented a top-heaviness that's proven successful in the past. 4 or 5 years out it might even look very reasonable.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 16, 2018, 05:42:50 PM
It's a question of how many guys are in that upper echelon of salary. Nylander at under 8 is probably doable but over 8 becomes problematic especially since Marner could have a big year and then ask for even more than that next year.

Ok, but that seems like a very different issue. First you were talking about guys working in a team salary structure, not just the perils of a team being relatively top heavy in their cap distribution.

Having four guys like Marner, Nylander, Matthews and Tavares was always going to present challenges from a cap management perspective. I don't think it's fair to take Dubas' decision to build the team that way as a reason to expect the guys on the team to just automatically decide that means they should want to sacrifice their own earnings in that aim and I'm not sure other teams have sold their guys on that concept.

So say Nylander gets 8, Marner then asks for 9+, you're suddenly extremely top heavy.

Sure, but I don't know if it's unworkable. If the four guys at the top, once extensions are signed, work out to 40 million in total(8 for Nylander, 9 for Marner, 11 for Tavares, 12 for Matthews) then if the cap is at 82 million next year then those 4 would represent 48.7% of the team's cap. By comparison, when Pittsburgh won the cup in 2016 their top four of Malkin, Crosby, Letang and Kessel were 45.5% of the cap.

So I think provided a certain amount of cap growth it wouldn't be too long until the Leafs big four, even at 10 million average cap hit, represented a top-heaviness that's proven successful in the past. 4 or 5 years out it might even look very reasonable.
I mean cause it worked for the Pens with 4 guys making that % doesn't mean it has to be emulated, you'd like to give yourself cap flexibility going forward as much as you can. What if, as you suggest the top 4 combine for $40M and the cap for next season stays flat and is only $80M? That's 50% of the cap on 4 players. You can't assume the cap will just go up a certain amount.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 06:00:14 PM
I mean cause it worked for the Pens with 4 guys making that % doesn't mean it has to be emulated, you'd like to give yourself cap flexibility going forward as much as you can.

It certainly doesn't have to be emulated but the decision to emulate in a practical sense isn't being made by Nylander or Marner or Matthews wanting to get paid a reasonable market rate, the decision to emulate that structure was effectively made by Dubas when he went out and gave one of the richest contracts in the league to Tavares while knowing what the team already had and who he had to sign.

What if, as you suggest the top 4 combine for $40M and the cap for next season stays flat and is only $80M? That's 50% of the cap on 4 players. You can't assume the cap will just go up a certain amount.

I feel like it's a pretty reasonable assumption given that the cap has increased in just about every single year of its existence but even if it doesn't then, yeah, you're left with a fairly top heavy salary structure(although I still don't think it's unworkable) but, again, that was always the risk in bringing in Tavares.

Dubas has made the choice to have 4 highly paid forwards on the roster. I think it's an interesting and exciting gamble on his part but I don't think the guys on the roster have an obligation to make his job easy for him.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on September 16, 2018, 06:05:50 PM
Good players are hard to find, as we have witnessed being Leaf fans.  I don't think nickel and diming your star, elite players is the right way to do it.  Pay your top players, fill in the rest of the roster with cheap talent on entry level deals, find some fill in cheap free agents, keep drafting well and keeping your picks and the pipeline stocked. 

Again, not sure what Nylander is asking for, and not sure what the Leafs are offering.  Being reasonable fans most of us wouldn't flinch if Nylander was signed for $8x8.  Very curious to know how big the divide is, and who is being unreasonable.   
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 16, 2018, 06:30:08 PM
Good players are hard to find, as we have witnessed being Leaf fans.  I don't think nickel and diming your star, elite players is the right way to do it.  Pay your top players, fill in the rest of the roster with cheap talent on entry level deals, find some fill in cheap free agents, keep drafting well and keeping your picks and the pipeline stocked. 

Again, not sure what Nylander is asking for, and not sure what the Leafs are offering.  Being reasonable fans most of us wouldn't flinch if Nylander was signed for $8x8.  Very curious to know how big the divide is, and who is being unreasonable.

I don't think it necessarily has to be a case of someone being unreasonable.  There are a lot of moving parts to this deal in the sense that it has an impact on what happens with Marner and Matthews, and it is hard to predict just what type of player Nylander is going to be moving forward.  If the deals had come up in the order of Matthews, Marner and then Nylander, then the negotiations for this deal probably go smoother
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on September 16, 2018, 06:41:32 PM
Good players are hard to find, as we have witnessed being Leaf fans.  I don't think nickel and diming your star, elite players is the right way to do it.  Pay your top players, fill in the rest of the roster with cheap talent on entry level deals, find some fill in cheap free agents, keep drafting well and keeping your picks and the pipeline stocked. 

Again, not sure what Nylander is asking for, and not sure what the Leafs are offering.  Being reasonable fans most of us wouldn't flinch if Nylander was signed for $8x8.  Very curious to know how big the divide is, and who is being unreasonable.

I don't think it necessarily has to be a case of someone being unreasonable.  There are a lot of moving parts to this deal in the sense that it has an impact on what happens with Marner and Matthews, and it is hard to predict just what type of player Nylander is going to be moving forward.  If the deals had come up in the order of Matthews, Marner and then Nylander, then the negotiations for this deal probably go smoother

Unreasonable in the sense that they don't have a deal yet.  If Leafs are offering sub $7m and Nylander is asking for north of $8m, then that's a pretty big divide.  Then we have the issue of term.  My feeling is the Leafs want to do a cheap bridge deal for a year or two and let the Marleau and Horton contracts expire. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 16, 2018, 07:30:47 PM
Good players are hard to find, as we have witnessed being Leaf fans.  I don't think nickel and diming your star, elite players is the right way to do it.  Pay your top players, fill in the rest of the roster with cheap talent on entry level deals, find some fill in cheap free agents, keep drafting well and keeping your picks and the pipeline stocked. 

Again, not sure what Nylander is asking for, and not sure what the Leafs are offering.  Being reasonable fans most of us wouldn't flinch if Nylander was signed for $8x8.  Very curious to know how big the divide is, and who is being unreasonable.

I don't think it necessarily has to be a case of someone being unreasonable.  There are a lot of moving parts to this deal in the sense that it has an impact on what happens with Marner and Matthews, and it is hard to predict just what type of player Nylander is going to be moving forward.  If the deals had come up in the order of Matthews, Marner and then Nylander, then the negotiations for this deal probably go smoother

Unreasonable in the sense that they don't have a deal yet.  If Leafs are offering sub $7m and Nylander is asking for north of $8m, then that's a pretty big divide.  Then we have the issue of term.  My feeling is the Leafs want to do a cheap bridge deal for a year or two and let the Marleau and Horton contracts expire.
Meh, worst comes to worst they bridge him like the Jets did to Morrisey. 2 years, $8M total. Then like you said Marleau and Horton off the books (as well as others), the Leafs have certainty of what the cap is in 2 years AND they know if Nylander truly becomes an elite, point a game player. If that's the case he can cash in and the Leafs work around it as they'll have the other 2 already signed.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on September 16, 2018, 07:45:28 PM

The contracts I keep coming back to as comps are the Scheifele, Mackinnon and Monahan deals and I think when you dig at them they actually support some of what we're hearing about Nylander's ask if a 7-8 year deal is really on the table.

Scheifele signed his 8 year extension at 8.39% of the cap. In today's dollars that's about 6.67 per. Mackinnon(7 years) at 8.63% which is 6.86 per.  Monahan(also 7 years) signed his at 8.73%, or 6.94 per. Sort of interestingly, I think it sorts out nicely as by production over their first three years it's the same order:

Scheifele: 144 points
Mackinnon: 153 points
Monahan: 159 points

Nylander, if you pro-rate his first year out, would have clocked 170 points over his first three seasons.

Anyways, so that means that, per point Monahan got roughly .055% of the cap on his extension, Mackinnon got .056% and Scheifele, who was the only one who signed an 8 as opposed to a 7 year deal, did the best at .058. 

So by using these comps what would Nylander figure to get? Well, at the Monahan rate it's 9.26% of the cap or 7.26 million, use Mackinnon's rate it's 7.52 million and use Scheifele's and it's 7.84 million.


This is a simplification of things but I really think that if Dubas is pushing an 8 year deal than just going by that Scheifele comp the 8 million dollar a year ask probably came from this kind of thinking as opposed to just trying to pin it to the Draisaitl deal. Either way, I think it's tough to look at his first three years and not see that 7-8 million is at the very least a justifiable ask when really looking at the comps.

I think itís been mentioned, but the Mirtle has an analysis that is backed by a bit more data:

https://theathletic.com/371189/2018/05/29/mirtle-breaking-down-what-william-nylanders-second-contract-should-look-like-for-the-leafs/

It doesnít include Schiefele but it does have Monahan and MacKinnon.

Mirtle comes out at an average of 7.07 million/year and an average length of 6.6 years with respect to the comparables.

There do seem to be a lot of dimensions to these comparables and no doubt that is a major factor when it comes to the leafs and Nylander settling on a number.  I canít say I agree completely with Mirtleís analysis as he includes salaries of different lengths and too many different players.

But he does makes some useful points and provides a selection of players to compare with so one can make up oneís own mind. I note that rather than taking the # of points on the whole ELC, Mirtle suggests more emphasis be placed on the contract year. That makes sense to me as these young players improve in leaps and bounds.  For that reason, one might also quibble with MacKinnon as a comparable as he was roughly 2 years younger than Nylander on his ELC.  In addition, pro-rating Nylanderís first half-season in the NHL (when he was honing his skills in the AHL, perhaps because he would have been less effective than in the NHL) also seems to give him a significant benefit of the doubt.

And of course there are line mates and power play time.

$7 x 6
$8 x 8 ... this feels high

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on September 16, 2018, 08:00:38 PM
$8 x 8 ... this feels high

It does, and would be for the first couple years.  Later in the contract I think it would an absolute steal. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Hobbes on September 16, 2018, 08:22:05 PM
Anyone want to take a guess at our mystery player?

The problem there is the price of apples only has partial impact on the price of oranges. The player's position does have a real impact on the salary, and a top-flight center definitely commands more than a roughly-equivalent center. Nylander might have a future at some point as a 2C but hasn't become one yet, and seems likely to be slotted as a 1a/b winger for the foreseeable future.

I'm hoping he'll settle for something like
$6.5 x 6
$7 x 7
$7.5 x 8

Would be a "team friendly" deal to me if he shaved 250k-500k off any of the above.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 08:36:06 PM
But he does makes some useful points and provides a selection of players to compare with so one can make up oneís own mind. I note that rather than taking the # of points on the whole ELC, Mirtle suggests more emphasis be placed on the contract year. That makes sense to me as these young players improve in leaps and bounds.  For that reason, one might also quibble with MacKinnon as a comparable as he was roughly 2 years younger than Nylander on his ELC.  In addition, pro-rating Nylanderís first half-season in the NHL (when he was honing his skills in the AHL, perhaps because he would have been less effective than in the NHL) also seems to give him a significant benefit of the doubt.

Or, conversely, it's giving Nylander credit for some of the experience he missed out on because the team held him out of the NHL despite him being ready as they tanked.

Look, I'm not going to read the article but I'm sure Mirtle knows his stuff. He's a professional nerd while I'm just a dedicated amateur. My point has always been that the idea of a "reasonable" ask is pretty varied as there's a lot of data and lots of ways to interpret it. I think you can make a reasonable case for all manner of numbers here. Nylander's making his, which I'm sure he's got a decent argument for, and Dubas is making his. Hopefully they meet somewhere amicably.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 16, 2018, 08:44:10 PM
The problem there is the price of apples only has partial impact on the price of oranges. The player's position does have a real impact on the salary, and a top-flight center definitely commands more...

I don't think comparing two different C's is apples and oranges. At best it's apple and a different, slightly better kind of apple.

Moreover, I don't think that line of argument would carry a lot of weight.

Imagine you're fresh out of university and you have some fancy credential. You're a lawyer or a CPA and you get a job with a big firm as such. You go to work and they say "Bad news. We hired way too many Lawyers. So for now we're going to need you in the IT department". Maybe you're a little upset but it's still a good job and you know your way around a router and you live in some bizarre world where you can't just choose to work for a different company as a lawyer. So you work for a few years and do a really good job and there's some talk of moving you into the legal department because you still think of yourself as a lawyer but you're really good in IT and happy enough there.

Then, it's time to renegotiate your salary and you ask for a salary roughly equivalent to a 3rd year associate and your boss goes "woah, woah, woah...that's what we pay Lawyers...you're just in IT".

I mean...they're free to try that and again, in this weird world where you can't just quit and go be a lawyer at a competing firm they've got more juice than they should have, but I think the whole "We're not paying you for what you're qualified for but the job we've decided to give you out of our own interest" would have some problems sticking.

The Leafs are certainly free to try that but Nylander is also free to not think that the Leafs choosing to play him at wing instead of at C should dictate his pay.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on September 16, 2018, 08:58:14 PM
But he does makes some useful points and provides a selection of players to compare with so one can make up oneís own mind. I note that rather than taking the # of points on the whole ELC, Mirtle suggests more emphasis be placed on the contract year. That makes sense to me as these young players improve in leaps and bounds.  For that reason, one might also quibble with MacKinnon as a comparable as he was roughly 2 years younger than Nylander on his ELC.  In addition, pro-rating Nylanderís first half-season in the NHL (when he was honing his skills in the AHL, perhaps because he would have been less effective than in the NHL) also seems to give him a significant benefit of the doubt.

Or, conversely, it's giving Nylander credit for some of the experience he missed out on because the team held him out of the NHL despite him being ready as they tanked.

Look, I'm not going to read the article but I'm sure Mirtle knows his stuff. He's a professional nerd while I'm just a dedicated amateur. My point has always been that the idea of a "reasonable" ask is pretty varied as there's a lot of data and lots of ways to interpret it. I think you can make a reasonable case for all manner of numbers here. Nylander's making his, which I'm sure he's got a decent argument for, and Dubas is making his. Hopefully they meet somewhere amicably.

I think we agree.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 17, 2018, 08:15:54 AM
The problem there is the price of apples only has partial impact on the price of oranges. The player's position does have a real impact on the salary, and a top-flight center definitely commands more...

I don't think comparing two different C's is apples and oranges. At best it's apple and a different, slightly better kind of apple.

Moreover, I don't think that line of argument would carry a lot of weight.

Imagine you're fresh out of university and you have some fancy credential. You're a lawyer or a CPA and you get a job with a big firm as such. You go to work and they say "Bad news. We hired way too many Lawyers. So for now we're going to need you in the IT department". Maybe you're a little upset but it's still a good job and you know your way around a router and you live in some bizarre world where you can't just choose to work for a different company as a lawyer. So you work for a few years and do a really good job and there's some talk of moving you into the legal department because you still think of yourself as a lawyer but you're really good in IT and happy enough there.

Then, it's time to renegotiate your salary and you ask for a salary roughly equivalent to a 3rd year associate and your boss goes "woah, woah, woah...that's what we pay Lawyers...you're just in IT".

I mean...they're free to try that and again, in this weird world where you can't just quit and go be a lawyer at a competing firm they've got more juice than they should have, but I think the whole "We're not paying you for what you're qualified for but the job we've decided to give you out of our own interest" would have some problems sticking.

The Leafs are certainly free to try that but Nylander is also free to not think that the Leafs choosing to play him at wing instead of at C should dictate his pay.

Wouldn't the Leafs be saying you're in IT and not a lawyer because you're not good enough to be a lawyer, but you are good enough to be in IT? So if you're not good enough to be a lawyer, despite your education, we shouldn't have to pay you like one?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 17, 2018, 03:33:27 PM
So Darnell Nurse just signed a 2-year bridge deal.   2 years, $3.2M per.

As Zeppelin would say about Nylander:

Ah, excuse me
Oh will you excuse me
I'm just trying to find the bridge!
Has anybody seen the bridge?
Please!
(Have you seen the bridge?)
I ain't seen the bridge!
(Where's that confounded bridge?)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 17, 2018, 04:05:59 PM
Wouldn't the Leafs be saying you're in IT and not a lawyer because you're not good enough to be a lawyer, but you are good enough to be in IT? So if you're not good enough to be a lawyer, despite your education, we shouldn't have to pay you like one?

Like I said, the Leafs are certainly allowed to try and tell Nylander that he's not good enough to play C but two things I think make that a bad play:

1. We have some evidence that it's just not true.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/3/17/17130994/toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-centre-depth (https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/3/17/17130994/toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-centre-depth)

2. Imagine if Matthews or Tavares get hurt and you ask him to slide over after negotiating a contract with him on the basis of him not being good enough to play C. Or maybe even longer term if a good trade for Kadri comes up.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: L K on September 17, 2018, 04:06:10 PM
The problem there is the price of apples only has partial impact on the price of oranges. The player's position does have a real impact on the salary, and a top-flight center definitely commands more...

I don't think comparing two different C's is apples and oranges. At best it's apple and a different, slightly better kind of apple.

Moreover, I don't think that line of argument would carry a lot of weight.

Imagine you're fresh out of university and you have some fancy credential. You're a lawyer or a CPA and you get a job with a big firm as such. You go to work and they say "Bad news. We hired way too many Lawyers. So for now we're going to need you in the IT department". Maybe you're a little upset but it's still a good job and you know your way around a router and you live in some bizarre world where you can't just choose to work for a different company as a lawyer. So you work for a few years and do a really good job and there's some talk of moving you into the legal department because you still think of yourself as a lawyer but you're really good in IT and happy enough there.

Then, it's time to renegotiate your salary and you ask for a salary roughly equivalent to a 3rd year associate and your boss goes "woah, woah, woah...that's what we pay Lawyers...you're just in IT".

I mean...they're free to try that and again, in this weird world where you can't just quit and go be a lawyer at a competing firm they've got more juice than they should have, but I think the whole "We're not paying you for what you're qualified for but the job we've decided to give you out of our own interest" would have some problems sticking.

The Leafs are certainly free to try that but Nylander is also free to not think that the Leafs choosing to play him at wing instead of at C should dictate his pay.

Wouldn't the Leafs be saying you're in IT and not a lawyer because you're not good enough to be a lawyer, but you are good enough to be in IT? So if you're not good enough to be a lawyer, despite your education, we shouldn't have to pay you like one?

Yes.

To bring it back into hockey terms, the argument for Nylander/his agent would be that Nylander is dynamic and is capable of being a top 6 center while also having the versatility of being a dynamic scoring winger.  Given that ability he should be paid as such, and not as a guy who is either a top 6 winger or a 4th line center.  Just because he would arguably be our 4th best center behind Tavares/Matthews/Kadri doesn't mean that he should be paid as a winger or a 4th line center. 

If Tavares wasn't signed and instead stayed in New York, there is a pretty solid argument that Nylander would have been asked to be the 2nd scoring center on the team with Matthews being our #1 guy and Kadri holding on to his role as our #3/shutdown center.  Nylander likely would have received the 3rd line ice-time but would be the 2nd scoring line behind Matthews.

The Leafs are obviously going to argue that Nylander is more of a winger and they should pay him less because that is what is best for the team, but it doesn't mean that Nylander is going to accept that argument.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on September 17, 2018, 05:06:17 PM
Thank you Daniel Nurse for signing a market established going rate contract.

Nylander will hopefully do the same in the 6 x 6 area.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 17, 2018, 06:04:42 PM
Thank you Daniel Nurse for signing a market established going rate contract.

Nylander will hopefully do the same in the 6 x 6 area.

How did you calculate what Darnell (not Daniel) Nurse's market value is?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 17, 2018, 06:24:17 PM
Wouldn't the Leafs be saying you're in IT and not a lawyer because you're not good enough to be a lawyer, but you are good enough to be in IT? So if you're not good enough to be a lawyer, despite your education, we shouldn't have to pay you like one?

Like I said, the Leafs are certainly allowed to try and tell Nylander that he's not good enough to play C but two things I think make that a bad play:

1. We have some evidence that it's just not true.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/3/17/17130994/toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-centre-depth (https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/3/17/17130994/toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-centre-depth)

2. Imagine if Matthews or Tavares get hurt and you ask him to slide over after negotiating a contract with him on the basis of him not being good enough to play C. Or maybe even longer term if a good trade for Kadri comes up.

Yes fine. Good points.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: disco on September 17, 2018, 06:55:58 PM
Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 17, 2018, 08:19:07 PM
Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

His possession numbers actually improved that season and he won the Lady Byng. His PPG was down a little but A) he got 1:30 less ice time per game than the year before and B) just about everyone on the Flames had a down year offensively.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: mr grieves on September 17, 2018, 11:22:27 PM
So Darnell Nurse just signed a 2-year bridge deal.   2 years, $3.2M per.

As Zeppelin would say about Nylander:

Ah, excuse me
Oh will you excuse me
I'm just trying to find the bridge!
Has anybody seen the bridge?
Please!
(Have you seen the bridge?)
I ain't seen the bridge!
(Where's that confounded bridge?)

What would a Nylander bridge look like? Kucherov's contract, roughly?

That's, like, $5.5 x 2 (say 7% of cap), then 8x 12% of the cap. In 2 years, that'll likely be 85-90m, or $10.5m/year or so...

I think the worst cap crunch will be next year, so the relief might be nice, but I'm sure Dubas &c. have gamed it out and would much rather Nylander making $3-4m less in year 3.

I doubt there's a bridge on the table.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 17, 2018, 11:24:28 PM
Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 18, 2018, 12:07:41 AM
Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 18, 2018, 05:50:05 AM
Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

I dunno. Signing on Tuesdays usually leads to career years.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 18, 2018, 07:04:15 AM
So Darnell Nurse just signed a 2-year bridge deal.   2 years, $3.2M per.

As Zeppelin would say about Nylander:

Ah, excuse me
Oh will you excuse me
I'm just trying to find the bridge!
Has anybody seen the bridge?
Please!
(Have you seen the bridge?)
I ain't seen the bridge!
(Where's that confounded bridge?)

What would a Nylander bridge look like? Kucherov's contract, roughly?

That's, like, $5.5 x 2 (say 7% of cap), then 8x 12% of the cap. In 2 years, that'll likely be 85-90m, or $10.5m/year or so...

I think the worst cap crunch will be next year, so the relief might be nice, but I'm sure Dubas &c. have gamed it out and would much rather Nylander making $3-4m less in year 3.

I doubt there's a bridge on the table.
I have no idea what a bridge would look like, but it might be the easiest path to ending the stalemate. Leafs push the Nylander question down the road and deal with it after M&M are locked up long term.  Bridge of 2 or  3 years, Leafs may win a Cup in that time, so... you know.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 18, 2018, 08:00:54 AM
Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 18, 2018, 09:09:02 AM
Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.

We don't know that for sure.  He could be hanging in Sweden on a couch eating GubbrŲra and nachos all day.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Kaberle15 on September 18, 2018, 10:13:18 AM
a deal similar to the one that Kadri has signed could be a nice Bridge deal with less term, say 4 years at 4.5Mi hit.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 18, 2018, 10:19:57 AM
a deal similar to the one that Kadri has signed could be a nice Bridge deal with less term, say 4 years at 4.5Mi hit.

You can take it to the bank that they won't be giving out a 4 yr contract.  That takes him right to his first UFA year.  A 3 yr bridge will be more than 5M IMO.  The only way we get a 4.5M cap hit with Nylander is if he's signing just a 1 yr deal
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on September 18, 2018, 10:35:07 AM
Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.

We don't know that for sure.  He could be hanging in Sweden on a couch eating GubbrŲra and nachos all day.

It's funny, because RFA holdouts won't come to camp because they fear injury, yet, like you guys point out, what are they doing in the meantime? Probably skating and working out. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 18, 2018, 10:38:00 AM
a deal similar to the one that Kadri has signed could be a nice Bridge deal with less term, say 4 years at 4.5Mi hit.

You can take it to the bank that they won't be giving out a 4 yr contract.  That takes him right to his first UFA year.  A 3 yr bridge will be more than 5M IMO.  The only way we get a 4.5M cap hit with Nylander is if he's signing just a 1 yr deal

Whatever the number is on a bridge, it'll be low enough that there's no cap issues for next year with Matthews and Marner even if Marner goes on a tear this season and signs for more than we expect right now.  But you're right on the term, it's either 3 or less, or 6 or more.  They'll be no 4 or 5 year deals that make him a UFA.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Kaberle15 on September 18, 2018, 10:57:57 AM
Totally forgot to check when would he be an UFA... maybe a 3 year deal could work
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on September 18, 2018, 11:21:25 AM
It's funny, because RFA holdouts won't come to camp because they fear injury, yet, like you guys point out, what are they doing in the meantime? Probably skating and working out.

Getting hurt while working out or skating on your own is largely under your control.

Preseason games against AHLers vying for the NHL coach's favour is a huge risk for someone without contract certainty.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 18, 2018, 06:32:17 PM
Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.

We don't know that for sure.  He could be hanging in Sweden on a couch eating GubbrŲra and nachos all day.


Some nice pasta with Swedish meatballs.  :D
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 18, 2018, 06:33:16 PM
Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.

I feel like I might be a target of this statement, but I'd like to point out that I was suggesting that this is not what would have been seen as an ideal scenario when negotiations began.  The team is dealing now with a less than ideal scenario, assuming of course that Dubas' offer isn't decreasing in $ commitment as every day of training camp goes by.  We can't legitimately quantify what training camp means to Nylander's performance this season, but at worst I can only assume that attending training camp wouldn't adversely affect Nylander's performance. 

I think what might be interesting to discuss is if the season starts without Nylander, how does the win/loss result affect the negotiation?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 18, 2018, 07:09:52 PM

I think it's clear to say that there's nowhere near enough evidence to prove the sort of direct causation that Tim and Sid, who shouldn't be confused with really deep thinkers, want to establish there.

But even then I think we can work some things out logically that answer some of the questions raised about the importance of a training camp. Here are a few:

Training Camps began with a very real and important purpose that doesn't really exist any more: Back in the days when players worked off season jobs, they'd often arrive at the start of season looking more like the salesmen or construction workers they were in the summer than finely tuned professional athletes. So camp was, quite literally, for physical training. Nowadays, these hard workin' millionaires are expected to keep themselves in fine physical condition year-round.

So why have camp? Training camp still has a lot of purpose for the team: Coaches, scouts and GMs use it as an evaluation process. They get some good looks at recently drafted rookies, make end of roster decisions, get to experiment with strategies...all of things that are theoretically useful but don't really relate to player development.

So does training camp have value for players? Probably, but it varies wildly from player to player: We all know not to take camp results too seriously. Why? Because we know that camp performances really only impact things in a minimal sense. Gauthier could score 100 points in camp and he's not bumping Tavares and Matthews. However Gauthier, as a fringe NHL-type, could definitely win a job as the 4th line C or a pressbox inhabitant. So it matters to him a great deal. The same could be said of older players who might need to get up to game speed if they're recovering from an injury or players on a new team fitting into a system or getting used to new linemates. Camp can definitely have an impact there.

Thing is, none of that really applies to Nylander. He's fairly well established, he knows his coaches(Gaudreau, for instance, had a new coach that year) and we're all expecting him to play with Matthews and Hyman again. At least to start the year. So I think we can somewhat fairly say that camp will probably matter less to him than it would to others.

I'm sure there's something to be said for the sort of camaraderie for all these guys getting together and working on stuff together but I really don't think that's negatively affected here. I think most players understand the business side of things and know the reason Nylander isn't in camp is because he's not currently a member of the Toronto Maple Leafs organization. He's not there for the same reason people don't show up to work shifts at jobs they don't have. Players get that and I'm pretty confident that none of Nylander's teammates will hold his absence against him.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 19, 2018, 11:08:58 AM
I'd love to be privy to these conversations between team and agent.  When it gets down to it how difficult is it to hammer out a deal?  I mean you see UFA's sign on July 1 very quickly, why does it take so long in some cases for RFAs to work out a deal?

Do they talk every day?  Do they sit and stew if one side says "we're not moving off this number and term"? 

At the end of the day I'm sure Dubas and company have a range they're comfortable with so why is it so difficult to get to that point?  As it's been mentioned, Nylander or any RFA has very little leverage, is he going to go play in the KHL -- highly doubtful and even then he doesn't come back with anymore leverage than he currently has.  I'm just wondering how this can drag on for weeks and weeks instead of just getting hammered out in days.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 19, 2018, 11:22:29 AM

Reinhart and the Sabres appear to be ending their stalemate by going the bridge route. Reinhart was drafted 2nd overall in 2014, Nylander 8th overall. Reinhart scored 50 points last season, and 47 points the season before that. Nylander has back-to-back years of 61 points.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 19, 2018, 11:24:00 AM
I'd love to be privy to these conversations between team and agent.  When it gets down to it how difficult is it to hammer out a deal?  I mean you see UFA's sign on July 1 very quickly, why does it take so long in some cases for RFAs to work out a deal?

Do they talk every day?  Do they sit and stew if one side says "we're not moving off this number and term"? 

At the end of the day I'm sure Dubas and company have a range they're comfortable with so why is it so difficult to get to that point?  As it's been mentioned, Nylander or any RFA has very little leverage, is he going to go play in the KHL -- highly doubtful and even then he doesn't come back with anymore leverage than he currently has.  I'm just wondering how this can drag on for weeks and weeks instead of just getting hammered out in days.

At least with a guy like Nylander (or in the past Kucherov or Gaudreau) you can understand why the negotiations might be difficult. What the heck are guys like Nick Ritchie or Miles "who?" Wood still doing unsigned at this point?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 19, 2018, 12:04:51 PM

Reinhart and the Sabres appear to be ending their stalemate by going the bridge route. Reinhart was drafted 2nd overall in 2014, Nylander 8th overall. Reinhart scored 50 points last season, and 47 points the season before that. Nylander has back-to-back years of 61 points.

A 2 year bridge for Nylander would most likely be $4.5 using this as an example
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on September 19, 2018, 12:08:14 PM

Reinhart and the Sabres appear to be ending their stalemate by going the bridge route. Reinhart was drafted 2nd overall in 2014, Nylander 8th overall. Reinhart scored 50 points last season, and 47 points the season before that. Nylander has back-to-back years of 61 points.

A 2 year bridge for Nylander would most likely be $4.5 using this as an example

Which would be more than ok.  Heck I'd give him $5. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 19, 2018, 02:55:54 PM
With the slow trickle of RFAs getting signed you have to hope the Nylander situation is cleared up by this weekend.  That gives him the week of training camp and he could get into a couple of exhibition games before the season starts.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: disco on September 19, 2018, 03:19:34 PM
Another point others have made I'm sure is that with Matthews/Tavares/Kadri down the middle, Willy is slotted in at RW moving forward. Ditto Marner, Brown and Kapanen. In a cap world and with the idea of strength down the middle, it's difficult to spend superstar money repeatedly on the wings and have anything left for defense and goaltending.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 19, 2018, 03:51:02 PM
Another point others have made I'm sure is that with Matthews/Tavares/Kadri down the middle, Willy is slotted in at RW moving forward. Ditto Marner, Brown and Kapanen. In a cap world and with the idea of strength down the middle, it's difficult to spend superstar money repeatedly on the wings and have anything left for defense and goaltending.

Which is why if you're Nylander and you think you'd be a successful NHL centre absent the team's decision to play you on the wing then you're probably going to be reluctant to sign a long term deal paying you like a winger.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 19, 2018, 04:03:25 PM
At least with a guy like Nylander (or in the past Kucherov or Gaudreau) you can understand why the negotiations might be difficult. What the heck are guys like Nick Ritchie or Miles "who?" Wood still doing unsigned at this point?

I actually sort of understand it in Ritchie's case. Because he's a former high draft pick and he's been somewhat productive in a very limited role he probably thinks that Anaheim is sort of trying a version of what I'm talking about with the Leafs and Nylander re: the difference in position wage scales. Anaheim probably wants to pay him like he's a 3rd/4th liner putting up less than 30 points, Ritchie probably sees that as a product of how they're using him instead of his inherent quality.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 19, 2018, 05:22:28 PM
At least with a guy like Nylander (or in the past Kucherov or Gaudreau) you can understand why the negotiations might be difficult. What the heck are guys like Nick Ritchie or Miles "who?" Wood still doing unsigned at this point?

I actually sort of understand it in Ritchie's case. Because he's a former high draft pick and he's been somewhat productive in a very limited role he probably thinks that Anaheim is sort of trying a version of what I'm talking about with the Leafs and Nylander re: the difference in position wage scales. Anaheim probably wants to pay him like he's a 3rd/4th liner putting up less than 30 points, Ritchie probably sees that as a product of how they're using him instead of his inherent quality.

I would think that many bottom-6 players could make that argument...with added ice-time, maybe some PP-time, maybe even the C position, they'd be able to produce more, and therefore get paid more.

And defensemen, if they got the opportunity to play top-pairing minutes, they'd get more points, and therefore a better contract.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 19, 2018, 06:08:47 PM
I would think that many bottom-6 players could make that argument...with added ice-time, maybe some PP-time, maybe even the C position, they'd be able to produce more, and therefore get paid more.

As we've gone back and forth on though the issue isn't the extent to which an argument is verifiable fact, just how much it's believed by the person making it.

I think Ritchie is in a particular position, as a young player with good draft pedigree who scored well in junior and the AHL, to think he's a better scorer than his time in the NHL has shown. A lot of 3rd/4th liners, older ones, are probably more settled into their roles and just happy to be making NHL money.

I think that's why someone like Ritchie might take a while to negotiate. If the Ducks expect bigger things out of Ritchie than he's given them, they might be inclined to try and lock Ritchie in for as long as they can at 3rd/4th line money. Ritchie, if he expects big things from himself, probably wouldn't want that. Hence...no contract.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 19, 2018, 06:24:22 PM
On a side note, does it seem to anyone else like there are a lot of people who think that when RFA's are negotiating long term deals that the sole determining factor in what they get is their past production but when UFA's are negotiating their long term deals the sole determining factor in what they get should be the kind of player they're likely to be in the latter years of the contract?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 19, 2018, 06:44:09 PM
I would think that many bottom-6 players could make that argument...with added ice-time, maybe some PP-time, maybe even the C position, they'd be able to produce more, and therefore get paid more.

As we've gone back and forth on though the issue isn't the extent to which an argument is verifiable fact, just how much it's believed by the person making it.

I think Ritchie is in a particular position, as a young player with good draft pedigree who scored well in junior and the AHL, to think he's a better scorer than his time in the NHL has shown. A lot of 3rd/4th liners, older ones, are probably more settled into their roles and just happy to be making NHL money.

I think that's why someone like Ritchie might take a while to negotiate. If the Ducks expect bigger things out of Ritchie than he's given them, they might be inclined to try and lock Ritchie in for as long as they can at 3rd/4th line money. Ritchie, if he expects big things from himself, probably wouldn't want that. Hence...no contract.

Maybe he can try to make that argument, but there are guys drafted before he was that can hardly crack a roster yet, like Dal Colle and Fleury, so I'm not sure draft position at his age has much negotiation value.

I don't doubt that the Ducks are trying to squeeze out as much dollars here, just like I don't doubt the Ritchie is trying to squeeze out as much as he can, but I've yet to be convinced by you here that he's being held back...just like I'm not convinced about Nylander not having an opportunity to prove his value, as he has had the opportunity to play with one of the best players in the whole world the past 2 years. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 19, 2018, 06:53:10 PM
Maybe he can try to make that argument, but there are guys drafted before he was that can hardly crack a roster yet, like Dal Colle and Fleury, so I'm not sure draft position at his age has much negotiation value.

I didn't say Ritchie's draft position has negotiation value. I said his draft position might contribute to Ritchie thinking he's better than he's shown so far. Which, again, is one of the reasons negotiations might have taken this long.

I appreciate that you've taken it upon yourself to constantly defend any and every position NHL management might take but "Yeah, I can see why negotiations have dragged out on this one" is not a pro-player position.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 19, 2018, 07:26:26 PM
Maybe he can try to make that argument, but there are guys drafted before he was that can hardly crack a roster yet, like Dal Colle and Fleury, so I'm not sure draft position at his age has much negotiation value.

I didn't say Ritchie's draft position has negotiation value. I said his draft position might contribute to Ritchie thinking he's better than he's shown so far. Which, again, is one of the reasons negotiations might have taken this long.

I appreciate that you've taken it upon yourself to constantly defend any and every position NHL management might take but "Yeah, I can see why negotiations have dragged out on this one" is not a pro-player position.

I love you, Nik, I really enjoy your posts, but I don't defend any and every NHL management position, just like I wouldn't ever say that you take a pro-player position any and every time.

I didn't accuse you of saying that Ritchie's hypothetical stance of using draft position in a negotiation would be of value.  I was simply arguing that IF he did, it probably wouldn't be of much value.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 19, 2018, 07:41:31 PM
Also, fwiw, I've never said Nylander hasn't had an opportunity to prove his value. It's never really been about what he could have done or been but rather what he has done and what he is. What I've said, boiled down, has two major points:

1) That the things a player can do to create "value" in this sense are only partially within his control. Ice time, linemates, what position they play...all of these things influence output.

2) When looking at Nylander's output, there are ways to frame what he has done, what his value is, in many ways that would support arguments for a wide range of negotiating positions.

Generally speaking, as I've dug into things, I think the reports of what he's asking for look more and more in line with the league's established RFA salary structure(it's not a "market" in any real sense) when compared to people who think that he should be more towards what Ehlers got but I've never argued about what he "should" or "shouldn't" get.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 19, 2018, 07:45:18 PM
I didn't accuse you of saying that Ritchie's hypothetical stance of using draft position in a negotiation would be of value.  I was simply arguing that IF he did, it probably wouldn't be of much value.

And, again, I never suggested he was bringing it up in negotiations even hypothetically, only that it might be something that was informing his sense of his own value.

Athletes, especially those like Ritchie, can have inflated senses of self-worth. That can prolong contract negotiations as whether salary should be about what a player has done or what he might do over the length of a contract is a matter of opinion rather than fact. I can't believe any of that reads as controversial to anyone.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 22, 2018, 06:39:27 PM
Dartguy on Twitter says a major announcement is coming tonight. Yes I've stooped this to level
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on September 22, 2018, 06:49:22 PM
Dartguy on Twitter says a major announcement is coming tonight. Yes I've stooped this to level

glurk.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 22, 2018, 07:04:40 PM
The latest news on Nylander-Dubas contract impasse:

It is reported that GM Dubas favoured a bridge deal, but that the Nylander camp wants "Leon Drausaitl" money, translation.. big contract which involves long term deal.

Not that we haven't read anything before on this Nylander contract situation but it is also reported that if no bridge then Dubas' other option favours the $6M mark, as opposed to the Nylander camp's version.

http://betting101.com/nhl/nhl-teams/toronto-maple-leafs/dubas-nylander-playing-game-of-chicken
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 22, 2018, 07:21:37 PM
Swirling, swirling...


Forget Faulk, keep Willy.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 22, 2018, 07:22:31 PM
It's probably just to announce he's being given 3 radio shows instead of just the 1.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 22, 2018, 07:39:04 PM
It's probably just to announce he's being given 3 radio shows instead of just the 1.
He went from being a guy with face paint and unlit cigarette at a Leafs game to having his own radio show and now a hockey insider.  Great Canadian success story.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 22, 2018, 07:52:21 PM
**Breaking News**

@TSN1050Radio has announced they have re-signed @LeafsMaz20 & @iamToddyTickles to 1 yr deals, details are undisclosed.

Thatís right #LeafsNation the DartGuy and Todd Shapiro Show is back for season 2! Catch us Saturdayís from 3pm-5pm starting Oct.6th #DGTSS https://t.co/TFYBUx7rcq
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 22, 2018, 10:45:17 PM

One of the things we've heard a lot whenever the Draisaitl contract comes up is "why should the Leafs be bound by a contract one of their dumber competitors signs?" which is a little funny as the Owners entire economic model for the sport is one where what the Leafs are allowed to pay their players is directly related to the revenues their dumbest competitors are able to generate.

I'm sure they'll try to but I'm not having it both ways there would win in a debate.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Stebro on September 23, 2018, 09:28:36 AM
BŲrje Salming will call Nylander to talk to him. Here's my take on it all:

Winning with the Maple Leafs is the biggest thing you can do in hockey right now. I can only speak for myself, but let's say I was a pro, then I would rather with the cup with the leafs than the olympics with Sweden. I hope that Nylander really gets how big it would be to win with the leafs, this is what I think that BŲrje will tell him. Ideally he would sign a shorter contract to make sure that Marleau will retire and free up some cap space. Another thing I think people should consider is that Kadri and Nylander have similar point production and Kadri more goals, how will Kadri react if Nylander gets a lot more? Imo Nylander should get 5,5-6,25 million per season.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 23, 2018, 09:35:11 AM
Another thing I think people should consider is that Kadri and Nylander have similar point production and Kadri more goals, how will Kadri react if Nylander gets a lot more? Imo Nylander should get 5,5-6,25 million per season.

That's not really the way things work though. Kadri signed his deal when he was about to turn 26 after a couple years where he wasn't producing much. Nylander's deal will be when he's 22 and has produced significantly better.

Kadri's improved as a player which benefits the team but I don't think Kadri would have any reason to react badly to a player in a very different situation signing a more lucrative deal than he did.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Stebro on September 23, 2018, 09:39:38 AM
Another thing I think people should consider is that Kadri and Nylander have similar point production and Kadri more goals, how will Kadri react if Nylander gets a lot more? Imo Nylander should get 5,5-6,25 million per season.

That's not really the way things work though. Kadri signed his deal when he was about to turn 26 after a couple years where he wasn't producing much. Nylander's deal will be when he's 22 and has produced significantly better.

Kadri's improved as a player which benefits the team but I don't think Kadri would have any reason to react badly to a player in a very different situation signing a more lucrative deal than he did.
Yeah, looking at it now the Kadri-contract is great, but I doubt that Kadri will be all that happy if Nylander were to get 8 million per season, although he wont, because he doesn't deserve it. The Nylander contract will also send a message to Marner and Matthews, so I think it's wise to be careful which is what Dubas is doing. If it's true that the Nylander camp has asked close to 8 million per season they're just......
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 23, 2018, 09:43:20 AM
Yeah, looking at it now the Kadri-contract is great, but I doubt that Kadri will be all that happy if Nylander were to get 8 million per season, although he wont, because he doesn't deserve it.

If Kadri resents a younger, better player than he was signing a more lucrative deal than he did...that really says something much worse about Kadri than anything else.

As 8 million per as a potential deal...I've done the big math-heavy posts on that. There are lots of comparable deals and some support a 7.5-8 million dollar ask.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 23, 2018, 02:51:18 PM
Why don't RFA's use offer sheets? I'm sure the agent could get it out there that his client would be willing to sign an offer sheet with another team if one is presented. If someone offers $8M Nylander gets what he wanted even if the Leafs match.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: mr grieves on September 23, 2018, 03:34:37 PM
Why don't RFA's use offer sheets? I'm sure the agent could get it out there that his client would be willing to sign an offer sheet with another team if one is presented. If someone offers $8M Nylander gets what he wanted even if the Leafs match.

Yeah, I've wondered about this too.
If I were an agent looking to get the best deal for my player, I'd do this.
If I were another team looking to make a rival club sweat, I'd do this.
Probably comes down to way GMs collude to keep salaries low.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 23, 2018, 03:54:58 PM
Yeah, I've wondered about this too.
If I were an agent looking to get the best deal for my player, I'd do this.
If I were another team looking to make a rival club sweat, I'd do this.
Probably comes down to way GMs collude to keep salaries low.

Because compensation is too low. In order for an offer sheet to have any real chance of succeeding they basically have to make the compensation more valuable than the player they're signing.

That's more or less impossible to do. Look around the league and find a young player who you'd sign to a deal between 6-8 million who isn't worth more than a 1st, 2nd or 3rd. Or between 8-10 million who isn't worth more than two 1sts and a 3rd. The real effect of offer sheets being common is that few players would actually change teams but the price of RFAs would go up for everyone.

Effectively, saying you'd do it as a GM is either saying you'd drive up the price of your own RFAs for no real benefit or it's saying you'd be out there signing RFAs to salaries they can't justify to put pressure on other teams. Regardless, you probably wouldn't be GMing for long.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 23, 2018, 04:51:06 PM
Wouldn't the Leafs have to get draft pick compensation if Nylander signs somewhere else?  That could be the deterrent for other teams right there.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on September 23, 2018, 04:58:44 PM
Wouldn't the Leafs have to get draft pick compensation if Nylander signs somewhere else?  That could be the deterrent for other teams right there.

$1,339,575 or less              No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659      Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322      Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980      First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641      First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302   Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302              Four first-round picks
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 23, 2018, 05:54:28 PM
That's not quite the entire picture. They would take the total value of the contract over the term, or 5 years whichever is smaller.

Example if a team offered Nylander 7 years x $8M (presumably something Nylander would take) that is total value of $56M, however they would divide that number by 5 to determine compensation.

$56M/5 = 11.2 and would mean the team gives up 4 first round picks.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on September 23, 2018, 07:13:06 PM
That's not quite the entire picture. They would take the total value of the contract over the term, or 5 years whichever is smaller.

Example if a team offered Nylander 7 years x $8M (presumably something Nylander would take) that is total value of $56M, however they would divide that number by 5 to determine compensation.

$56M/5 = 11.2 and would mean the team gives up 4 first round picks.

Holy crap. Did not know that.  Thanks Zee.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 23, 2018, 07:16:50 PM
That's not quite the entire picture. They would take the total value of the contract over the term, or 5 years whichever is smaller.

Example if a team offered Nylander 7 years x $8M (presumably something Nylander would take) that is total value of $56M, however they would divide that number by 5 to determine compensation.

$56M/5 = 11.2 and would mean the team gives up 4 first round picks.

Holy crap. Did not know that.  Thanks Zee.
I just learned this recently too. So if his agent insisted on a 7 year deal from another team (in the imagination land where offer sheets actually happened) it would have to be 7.2 for 7 years to stay less than 4 first round picks. The Leafs would match that though as 7.2M is workable in the cap.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: jdh1 on September 23, 2018, 07:47:52 PM
 Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 23, 2018, 08:04:07 PM
Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.
Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 23, 2018, 08:05:22 PM
Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.

I wouldn't. Especially without having any control over where those picks were coming from.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 23, 2018, 08:10:21 PM
Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone

If it's a marginal playoff team or bottom feeder they A) probably wouldn't offer a contract like that unless they really felt they were close to contending status and B) Nylander would be strongly incentivized to sign a 5 year deal so his new team wouldn't be severely hampered in their ability to build around him.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: jdh1 on September 23, 2018, 08:24:27 PM
Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.
Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone

Bottom feeders probably wouldn't do it for fear it could end up like Ottawa this year. However 1st pick for 4 years even from a contender could change in one or two years where they would end up in the middle.

I think the reason that they don't want to over pay for him because of his tendency to take the odd game off.  Give him 6 years and he might want to take even more.  I,m a bit iffy with him long term.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 23, 2018, 09:01:54 PM
Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.
Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone

Bottom feeders probably wouldn't do it for fear it could end up like Ottawa this year. However 1st pick for 4 years even from a contender could change in one or two years where they would end up in the middle.

I think the reason that they don't want to over pay for him because of his tendency to take the odd game off.  Give him 6 years and he might want to take even more.  I,m a bit iffy with him long term.
You can do alot with four first round picks though. I mean Leafs traded 2 firsts and a 2nd for Kessel so say they took team X's offer and got 4 firsts. Leafs could package their own first this season (low first) and the other teams first in 2020 for example and get a good player back. Leafs would still have a first this year (from team X) and their own first next year in that scenario and still have 2 more firsts from the Nylander offer sheet.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: slapshot on September 23, 2018, 09:04:09 PM
Curious about people's opinions on these regarding Nylander?

1. What do you think we'll see most likely, bridge or longer term?
2. If bridge deal, how long and at what dollar amount?
3. If long-term, how long and at what dollar amount?
4. Do you think it gets done before the season starts?
5. Given the fact the Leafs are deep on the right side, with Marner, Kapanen, Brown and with Bracco (coming along), the Leafs could trade from strength to either 1) shore up the defence 2) strengthen the left wing, with the departure of JVR and Marleau's career winding down. What do you think the chances of something like that happening?

Personally, in terms of bargaining power, Nylander camp has none except to sit out and eventually that will cost them. Leafs hold all the cards at this point. Seems like some kind of crazy ego thing going on that they think he is closer in talent to Matthews and Marner than he really is. He's very talented but I don't see the level of consistency on a nightly basis.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 23, 2018, 09:09:45 PM
Curious about people's opinions on these regarding Nylander?

1. What do you think we'll see most likely, bridge or longer term?
2. If bridge deals, how long and at what dollar amount?
3. If long-term, how long and at what dollar amount?
4. Do you think it gets done before the season starts?
5. Given the fact the Leafs are deep on the right side, with Marner, Kapanen, Brown and with Bracco (coming along), the Leafs could trade from strength to either 1) shore up the defence 2) strengthen the left wing, with the departure of JVR and Marleau's career winding down. What do you think the chances of something like that happening?

1. At this point, bridge.
2. 2 years, 11 million
3. 6/44
4. If bridge, yes. Long term, no.
5. I don't think that is particularly deep on the right side unless you're comparing it to an even worse left side. I think odds are that if they trade Nylander as a result of a contract impasse, the Leafs will end up worse and not better so I think the odds of that are fairly low.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: slapshot on September 23, 2018, 09:20:06 PM
Hoping you are right at number 3, but would like to keep it to 40 mil
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 23, 2018, 09:21:31 PM
Four  1st round picks for Nylander.  I would take that in a heart beat.
Depends what team. If it's a contender they would be low first round picks and you won't get another Nylander, if it's a marginal playoff or bottom feeder than absolutely I'd want the picks for the lottery opportunity alone

Bottom feeders probably wouldn't do it for fear it could end up like Ottawa this year. However 1st pick for 4 years even from a contender could change in one or two years where they would end up in the middle.

I think the reason that they don't want to over pay for him because of his tendency to take the odd game off.  Give him 6 years and he might want to take even more.  I,m a bit iffy with him long term.
You can do alot with four first round picks though. I mean Leafs traded 2 firsts and a 2nd for Kessel so say they took team X's offer and got 4 firsts. Leafs could package their own first this season (low first) and the other teams first in 2020 for example and get a good player back. Leafs would still have a first this year (from team X) and their own first next year in that scenario and still have 2 more firsts from the Nylander offer sheet.
It's a moot point anyways because no team in their right mind would overpay for Nylander and also surrender four first round picks in the process.  It's madness.  This gives me confidence that the Leafs will work out a deal with him, one way or another.  If Nylander decides to sit out, it's his loss.  And he will pay the price big time in the long run if he does that.  Dubas holds all the power here.  I would be shocked to see Nylander get more than $7 million on a long term deal.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: mr grieves on September 23, 2018, 09:47:22 PM
Yeah, I've wondered about this too.
If I were an agent looking to get the best deal for my player, I'd do this.
If I were another team looking to make a rival club sweat, I'd do this.
Probably comes down to way GMs collude to keep salaries low.

Because compensation is too low. In order for an offer sheet to have any real chance of succeeding they basically have to make the compensation more valuable than the player they're signing.

Compensation's irrelevant, as I'm expecting the Leafs to match. "Success" here is screwing up the cap situation of a rival, one slight overpay at a time.


Effectively, saying you'd do it as a GM is either saying you'd drive up the price of your own RFAs for no real benefit or it's saying you'd be out there signing RFAs to salaries they can't justify to put pressure on other teams. Regardless, you probably wouldn't be GMing for long.

Yeah, I acknowledged in the initial post that a league-wide desire to keep RFA contracts as low as possible is what's stopping GMs from doing this -- they probably worry that the price of their own RFAs would be driven up.

But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range. That's the sort of offer sheet I thought the OP had in mind. The Leafs aren't offering that because they want him at a number better for their long term salary structure, that'll keep them maximally competitive for as long as possible. If I were a rival GM -- call me, say, Lou -- and I wanted to put pressure on the Leafs now or limit their ability to keep all their pieces together in the future, I'd offer Nylander a fair contract, one which wouldn't necessarily drive up the costs of my own players -- at least not beyond what I could afford since I'm not among the league's contenders.

Leafs match. So I don't get him, I keep the picks, but I get to console myself in the "failure" by knowing that I've made Kyle Dubas's job a bit harder in a few years and made the league a bit more competitive down the line.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 23, 2018, 09:57:31 PM
Yeah, I've wondered about this too.
If I were an agent looking to get the best deal for my player, I'd do this.
If I were another team looking to make a rival club sweat, I'd do this.
Probably comes down to way GMs collude to keep salaries low.

Because compensation is too low. In order for an offer sheet to have any real chance of succeeding they basically have to make the compensation more valuable than the player they're signing.

Compensation's irrelevant, as I'm expecting the Leafs to match. "Success" here is screwing up the cap situation of a rival, one slight overpay at a time.


Effectively, saying you'd do it as a GM is either saying you'd drive up the price of your own RFAs for no real benefit or it's saying you'd be out there signing RFAs to salaries they can't justify to put pressure on other teams. Regardless, you probably wouldn't be GMing for long.

Yeah, I acknowledged in the initial post that a league-wide desire to keep RFA contracts as low as possible is what's stopping GMs from doing this -- they probably worry that the price of their own RFAs would be driven up.

But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range. That's the sort of offer sheet I thought the OP had in mind. The Leafs aren't offering that because they want him at a number better for their long term salary structure, that'll keep them maximally competitive for as long as possible. If I were a rival GM -- call me, say, Lou -- and I wanted to put pressure on the Leafs now or limit their ability to keep all their pieces together in the future, I'd offer Nylander a fair contract, one which wouldn't necessarily drive up the costs of my own players -- at least not beyond what I could afford since I'm not among the league's contenders.

Leafs match. So I don't get him, I keep the picks, but I get to console myself in the "failure" by knowing that I've made Kyle Dubas's job a bit harder in a few years and made the league a bit more competitive down the line.
No GM in their right mind is going to do that.  4 first round picks?  No way.  The Leafs would take those picks and run.  And then the GM that tabled that offer would be fired.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 23, 2018, 09:58:46 PM
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range. That's the sort of offer sheet I thought the OP had in mind. The Leafs aren't offering that because they want him at a number better for their long term salary structure, that'll keep them maximally competitive for as long as possible. If I were a rival GM -- call me, say, Lou -- and I wanted to put pressure on the Leafs now or limit their ability to keep all their pieces together in the future, I'd offer Nylander a fair contract, one which wouldn't necessarily drive up the costs of my own players -- at least not beyond what I could afford since I'm not among the league's contenders.

Again, I think the ultimate outcome of that is just that you put very marginal pressure on a rival while initiating a market that would raise pressure on everyone. The issue isn't whether or not you'd be offering the Nylander a "fair" salary, it's whether by opening the floodgates to RFA offer sheets being a common tactic you wouldn't then be introducing some of the same inefficiencies to RFA pay that you see with UFA contracts.

And if you, Lou, feel comfortable with making an offer like that because you're not a contender then you're also probably taking a huge risk that the Leafs wouldn't match and be happy to take your draft picks off your hands. Which, as we saw with Kessel, can be a long term negative for you even if the player you get is a very good one.

Remember that players have to agree to offer sheets. So unless you're offering them something way over and above what their team is willing to match, you probably have to also do some schmoozing and convincing them not only of your desire for them to join your team but your belief that you can build a winning club around them. Again, your idea here is that a team would do all this in bad faith just to slightly mess with another team's cap.

Which is the final thing. I don't think teams are really going to let it mess with their cap too much. Dubas may very well be hoping to get Nylander at 6-7 for his long term plans but Nylander at 7-8 would just make their future depth thornier, not a disaster.

So that strikes me as a lot of risk for an absurdly low payoff.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on September 23, 2018, 10:05:35 PM
Quote from: mr grieves
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on September 24, 2018, 09:11:58 AM
Quote from: mr grieves
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.
6.something in all ranges.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 24, 2018, 10:02:45 AM
Hypothetical Monday:

So what if Nylander's camp won't budge off his ask (and say it's in the $8M range) and he asks for a trade?  What would you do?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 24, 2018, 11:02:58 AM
Curious about people's opinions on these regarding Nylander?

1. What do you think we'll see most likely, bridge or longer term?
2. If bridge deal, how long and at what dollar amount?
3. If long-term, how long and at what dollar amount?
4. Do you think it gets done before the season starts?
5. Given the fact the Leafs are deep on the right side, with Marner, Kapanen, Brown and with Bracco (coming along), the Leafs could trade from strength to either 1) shore up the defence 2) strengthen the left wing, with the departure of JVR and Marleau's career winding down. What do you think the chances of something like that happening?

Personally, in terms of bargaining power, Nylander camp has none except to sit out and eventually that will cost them. Leafs hold all the cards at this point. Seems like some kind of crazy ego thing going on that they think he is closer in talent to Matthews and Marner than he really is. He's very talented but I don't see the level of consistency on a nightly basis.

1.  Longer Term
2.  I don't see it happening - opens flood gates for bridge with other 2 guys.
3.  5 x $6.75m.
4.  I still think it gets done before game 1.
5.  I have a hard time getting to the point where they trade him...and I don't see them being deep enough with what's coming down the pipe.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on September 24, 2018, 11:10:52 AM
Hypothetical Monday:

So what if Nylander's camp won't budge off his ask (and say it's in the $8M range) and he asks for a trade?  What would you do?
Let him sit and let him think LONG and hard about his position.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 24, 2018, 12:10:03 PM
Quote from: mr grieves
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.

Exactly.  My "fair" number is certainly different based on term. 
6 yrs?  6.75M is probably fair based on history.
8 yrs?  7.5M is probably fair based on history.

Essentially, RFA years come at a discount compared to UFA years.  That's just the leverage that teams have.  Further, under 4 years of NHL service the player doesn't have arbitration rights.  So the progression, if you are looking at 1 yr deals constantly, given Nylander's CURRENT production and the cap increasing each year:
yr 1:  4M
yr 2:  6M  (arbitration eligible)
yr 3:  6.5M
yr 4:  7M
yr 5:  8.5M  (UFA... )
yr 6:  9M
yr 7:  9.5M
yr 8:  10M

That works out to a 6 yr deal averaging 6.83M or an 8 yr deal averaging 7.56M.

Now, that doesn't include his impact/production increasing- turning into a PPG player would obviously increase his expectations on salary down the road.  That can be offset by front-loading the contract to some degree and making it lockout-proof.  (Money now is worth more than future money).

So if I'm the team... I'd probably wait it out with something like 6.5m X 6, front-loaded and lockout proof.  On an 8 yr deal, I'd probably stick to my guns at 7.25M x 8, again front-loaded and lockout proof.

And I wouldn't think those aren't fair offers at this point in time.  If I'm Nylander, I'm choosing the 6 yr deal because I'd bet on myself that I can pull in much more than 9.5/10M per year on my next contract. 

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: mr grieves on September 24, 2018, 12:30:33 PM
And if you, Lou, feel comfortable with making an offer like that because you're not a contender then you're also probably taking a huge risk that the Leafs wouldn't match and be happy to take your draft picks off your hands. Which, as we saw with Kessel, can be a long term negative for you even if the player you get is a very good one.

Yeah, it'd be a bad move for Lou, and the only potential upside would be, y'know, spite. But if I were GM of a team that's on the way up, I'd consider it. Panthers and Buffalo (well, maybe next year) in the Leafs division, or any of the teams are likely to have to get through the Leafs in the East at some point in the next 5 years -- so, NJ, Philadelphia, Carolina, maybe Columbus.


Remember that players have to agree to offer sheets. So unless you're offering them something way over and above what their team is willing to match, you probably have to also do some schmoozing and convincing them not only of your desire for them to join your team but your belief that you can build a winning club around them. Again, your idea here is that a team would do all this in bad faith just to slightly mess with another team's cap.

Yes, but I'd imagine there are plenty of RFAs who know that the team that holds their rights would match within the 24 (48?) hour window. How many times has the original team not matched? And the end result is that the player would be under contract -- a good one -- on the team they want to play for. So, if I were Nylander's agent and a $8 x 7 year offer sheet showed up from the Panthers, I'd see it as a way of resolving my client's contract stalemate.


Which is the final thing. I don't think teams are really going to let it mess with their cap too much. Dubas may very well be hoping to get Nylander at 6-7 for his long term plans but Nylander at 7-8 would just make their future depth thornier, not a disaster.

Like I said, death by a thousand paper cuts. Hobble a contender through a bunch of small overpayments.

It's a pretty low payoff, and one that's non-exclusive to the team taking the risk and making an enemy in doing it, so, yeah, I get why it isn't done by anyone in the managers' fraternity. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: mr grieves on September 24, 2018, 12:32:23 PM
Quote from: mr grieves
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.

Exactly.  My "fair" number is certainly different based on term. 
6 yrs?  6.75M is probably fair based on history.
8 yrs?  7.5M is probably fair based on history.

I was taking the "we want him to be here for a long time" to mean an 8 year contract. And $7.5-8m is fair with that sort of contract length.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 24, 2018, 12:36:48 PM
Quote from: mr grieves
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.

Exactly.  My "fair" number is certainly different based on term. 
6 yrs?  6.75M is probably fair based on history.
8 yrs?  7.5M is probably fair based on history.

I was taking the "we want him to be here for a long time" to mean an 8 year contract. And $7.5-8m is fair with that sort of contract length.

I think 6 years is a pretty long deal as well.  Hence why people were saying they don't necessarily agree.  If you had stated "... fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range on a max length deal" you'd have less people disagreeing.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 24, 2018, 02:12:28 PM
I don't think I've ever searched on Twitter more often for a term.  "Nylander" and "Nylander contract".  That's gotta be breaking records in the GTA on Twitter.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on September 24, 2018, 02:26:02 PM
I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 24, 2018, 02:37:52 PM
I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 24, 2018, 03:18:29 PM
I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 24, 2018, 03:26:39 PM
I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

You mean from the Leafs.  Recently there's been other guys who've signed very late.  Trouba comes to mind as he signed in November I think.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 24, 2018, 03:31:56 PM
I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

You mean from the Leafs.  Recently there's been other guys who've signed very late.  Trouba comes to mind as he signed in November I think.

Yes, I mean from the leafs.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 03:33:08 PM
Yeah, it'd be a bad move for Lou, and the only potential upside would be, y'know, spite. But if I were GM of a team that's on the way up, I'd consider it. Panthers and Buffalo (well, maybe next year) in the Leafs division, or any of the teams are likely to have to get through the Leafs in the East at some point in the next 5 years -- so, NJ, Philadelphia, Carolina, maybe Columbus.

If I were the GM of a team on the way up, I'd probably have my own future cap issues to concern myself with that rated of a higher importance than throwing a tiny potential monkey wrench at other teams.

I probably also wouldn't want to open the door to teams doing that to me if I wanted to be in the Leafs position soon.

Yes, but I'd imagine there are plenty of RFAs who know that the team that holds their rights would match within the 24 (48?) hour window. How many times has the original team not matched? And the end result is that the player would be under contract -- a good one -- on the team they want to play for. So, if I were Nylander's agent and a $8 x 7 year offer sheet showed up from the Panthers, I'd see it as a way of resolving my client's contract stalemate.

I'm sure you're going to say that you're just using the Panthers as an example here but the fact that the Panthers don't have anywhere near the cap space to make that offer or the draft picks to make any offer outside of one where they would have to be risking 4 first rounders is another thing to consider as to why those offers don't get made.

Like I said, death by a thousand paper cuts. Hobble a contender through a bunch of small overpayments.

How does that work? Teams don't have lots and lots of RFAs. Are you going to convince all of them to sign with you at an inflated price? And then not think that will have an inflationary impact on your own guys.

I'm really starting to see why you're not running an up and coming NHL team.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 03:34:59 PM
I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

Nylander isn't holding out, he doesn't have a contract.

And Kadri didn't sign his bridge deal until mid-September.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 24, 2018, 03:38:10 PM
I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

Nylander isn't holding out, he doesn't have a contract.

And Kadri didn't sign his bridge deal until mid-September.

Insert Eye Roll here.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 24, 2018, 03:40:19 PM
I am not stressed at all... we're a pretty good team. He can wait and sign at number that works for the team.

It's just fascinating to watch it play out on your own team.  I know there's a handful of guys every year that go through this but I never really cared before cause it wasn't the Leafs.  Leafs aren't under any pressure to get this done since the team is still good without Nylander, so Dubas holds the hammer here.  Will be interesting to see how this gets resolved.

The last time I remember a player of significance holding out was Kaberle. I believe that was 2000 or 2001

Nylander isn't holding out, he doesn't have a contract.

And Kadri didn't sign his bridge deal until mid-September.

Kadri signed the day before training camp began with the Leafs so he missed nothing.  We're well beyond that point with Nylander.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 03:45:48 PM
Kadri signed the day before training camp began with the Leafs so he missed nothing.  We're well beyond that point with Nylander.

We're 12 days beyond that point.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 24, 2018, 03:49:37 PM
Kadri signed the day before training camp began with the Leafs so he missed nothing.  We're well beyond that point with Nylander.

We're 12 days beyond that point.

I'd say the difference between 12 days in August and 12 days from the first day of training camp is significant.

But wait, I'm holding out for a reason that I'm wrong. And go!
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 03:55:49 PM
I'd say the difference between 12 days in August and 12 days from the first day of training camp is significant.

You're certainly free to think that any and every day is as significant as you like. Carpe Diem as they say. Where we are from when Kadri signed and now, relative to the opening of camp, is 12 days regardless though.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Deebo on September 24, 2018, 04:26:24 PM
Nylander isn't holding out, he doesn't have a contract.

I don't where that definition of holdout came from but I hear sports radio guys say the same thing. That it isn't a hold out if you don't have a contract. I would call failing to report when you are under contract a breach of contract, not a hold out.

The dictionary definition of holdout seems to describe what Nylander is doing:

http://www.learnersdictionary.com/definition/holdout

1 : a person who refuses to reach an agreement until certain terms are met

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/holdout

someone that does not agree or consent, usually because they are attempting to gain concessions or a better deal

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/holdout

1. An act of resisting something or refusing to accept what is offered.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 04:39:34 PM
I don't where that definition of holdout came from but I hear sports radio guys say the same thing. That it isn't a hold out if you don't have a contract. I would call failing to report when you are under contract a breach of contract, not a hold out.

The dictionary definition of holdout seems to describe what Nylander is doing:

http://www.learnersdictionary.com/definition/holdout

1 : a person who refuses to reach an agreement until certain terms are met

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/holdout

someone that does not agree or consent, usually because they are attempting to gain concessions or a better deal

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/holdout

1. An act of resisting something or refusing to accept what is offered.

Right, so in this situation you could either go with common usage or you could go with a dictionary definition of holdout that would technically apply to both Nylander and Dubas and also probably Marner or Matthews(who I assume were offered deals and turned them down) or any UFA with a contract offer from anyone.

Personally, it feels like the former is more useful but I am always happy to have a discussion about the evolution of language.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Deebo on September 24, 2018, 05:17:01 PM
I don't where that definition of holdout came from but I hear sports radio guys say the same thing. That it isn't a hold out if you don't have a contract. I would call failing to report when you are under contract a breach of contract, not a hold out.

The dictionary definition of holdout seems to describe what Nylander is doing:

http://www.learnersdictionary.com/definition/holdout

1 : a person who refuses to reach an agreement until certain terms are met

https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/holdout

someone that does not agree or consent, usually because they are attempting to gain concessions or a better deal

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/holdout

1. An act of resisting something or refusing to accept what is offered.

Right, so in this situation you could either go with common usage or you could go with a dictionary definition of holdout that would technically apply to both Nylander and Dubas and also probably Marner or Matthews(who I assume were offered deals and turned them down) or any UFA with a contract offer from anyone.

Personally, it feels like the former is more useful but I am always happy to have a discussion about the evolution of language.

In my experience, I haven't seen your definition used more commonly. I see holdout used very commonly to describe this situation and every now and then I'll see someone "correct" this usage of the word to say that to be holdout, a player must be under contract. I've only started seeing that in the last few years. In the past I've always seen and used "holdout" be used to describe an unsigned RFA after camp starts.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 24, 2018, 05:28:03 PM


Kadri signed the day before training camp began with the Leafs so he missed nothing.  We're well beyond that point with Nylander.

We're 12 days beyond that point.

But Kadri missed no days of training camp and no exhibition games. It seems more and more likely that Nylander will miss all of pre-season so it's quite different than Kadri was my point. Nylander isn't doing himself any favors by missing time.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 05:31:23 PM
In my experience, I haven't seen your definition used more commonly.

At issue then might be the extent to which you follow football. A contract holdout in the NFL is almost always a situation where a player  under contract is refusing to report in the hopes of getting a new contract:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/nfl/report-rams-aaron-donald-agree-135m-extension/ (https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/nfl/report-rams-aaron-donald-agree-135m-extension/)

Le'veon Bell's Holdout (http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/leveon-bell-contract-holdout-steelers-options-choices-update/109cevxeq4erd115hs6q5b71ow)

Again, I think the idea of using "holdout" to refer to something specific rather than using a term that could equally apply to any lack of agreed contract between two parties without contractual obligations to each other(again, by your definition this is just as much Dubas' as it is Nylander's "holdout") makes for a clearer picture. Especially if it's being used erroneously, as it is so frequently, to portray the situation as Nylander failing to live up to obligations.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 05:35:57 PM
Nylander isn't doing himself any favors by missing time.

I don't think the current situation helps anyone. Personally, I think the Leafs here are hurting, rather than helping, their chances of getting any one of their big three RFA's to agree to the sort of long-term team friendly deals they'd like and, if I'm right, that will probably have more ramifications for the team ultimately than any number of missed camp days.

Beyond that, the Leafs maybe should start swinging that hammer you think they have.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on September 24, 2018, 06:08:35 PM
Well, Zee and I are clearly upset with this entire situation, so the Leafs and Nylander need to take our feelings into account and get the damn contract signed already. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 24, 2018, 06:20:27 PM
Nylander isn't doing himself any favors by missing time.

I don't think the current situation helps anyone. Personally, I think the Leafs here are hurting, rather than helping, their chances of getting any one of their big three RFA's to agree to the sort of long-term team friendly deals they'd like and, if I'm right, that will probably have more ramifications for the team ultimately than any number of missed camp days.

Beyond that, the Leafs maybe should start swinging that hammer you think they have.

Trade him to Edmonton hammer?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 06:23:20 PM
Well, Zee and I are clearly upset with this entire situation, so the Leafs and Nylander need to take our feelings into account and get the damn contract signed already.

Bob doesn't care for your feelings:

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 06:24:40 PM
Trade him to Edmonton hammer?

Adam Larsson and a 2nd. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on September 24, 2018, 06:33:28 PM
There's going to be a loooooot of pages added to this thread when Arizona offer sheets Matthews next summer.  :D
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 24, 2018, 06:36:19 PM
Nylander isn't doing himself any favors by missing time.

I don't think the current situation helps anyone. Personally, I think the Leafs here are hurting, rather than helping, their chances of getting any one of their big three RFA's to agree to the sort of long-term team friendly deals they'd like and, if I'm right, that will probably have more ramifications for the team ultimately than any number of missed camp days.

Beyond that, the Leafs maybe should start swinging that hammer you think they have.
Yes so the Leafs should just give him 8.5 million and then hope they can fit the other 2 in at a later date.

Other teams go through this and are able to sign players at team friendly deals, why should the Leafs be any different? They've amassed quite a bit of young talent and players ultimately want to win so the Leafs are as good an option as anyone right now.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 24, 2018, 06:39:21 PM
In my experience, I haven't seen your definition used more commonly.

At issue then might be the extent to which you follow football. A contract holdout in the NFL is almost always a situation where a player  under contract is refusing to report in the hopes of getting a new contract:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/nfl/report-rams-aaron-donald-agree-135m-extension/ (https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/nfl/report-rams-aaron-donald-agree-135m-extension/)

Le'veon Bell's Holdout (http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nfl/news/leveon-bell-contract-holdout-steelers-options-choices-update/109cevxeq4erd115hs6q5b71ow)

Again, I think the idea of using "holdout" to refer to something specific rather than using a term that could equally apply to any lack of agreed contract between two parties without contractual obligations to each other(again, by your definition this is just as much Dubas' as it is Nylander's "holdout") makes for a clearer picture. Especially if it's being used erroneously, as it is so frequently, to portray the situation as Nylander failing to live up to obligations.

Regardless, Kaberle's "not signing a contract because he was holding out for a better deal" is the last time I remember a Leaf of significance going through training camp without a contract unless we consider Cody Franson significant.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 06:43:38 PM
Other teams go through this and are able to sign players at team friendly deals, why should the Leafs be any different? They've amassed quite a bit of young talent and players ultimately want to win so the Leafs are as good an option as anyone right now.

I feel like I've already gone into why the Leafs might have a tougher sell on getting guys to buy into team-friendly, and let's be real when we say that what we really mean is under-market, deals. The idea that market size/team wealth should play no factor in what constitutes a "fair" price for a player is effectively just buying what NHL owners want us to think about these things uncritically. If the Leafs didn't want their wealth and the actual revenue generated by their players to be a consideration when it came time to negotiate contracts, they should have fought the idea of a cap harder. Short of that, expecting individual players to negotiate from the playbook you wrote for your own benefit strikes me as a tough sell when you're dealing with smart and experienced agents. Especially when the media pressure that could be focused on the team if they start poorly or have a disappointing season is much greater here than elsewhere.

And I wouldn't just necessarily buy the narrative that Nylander wants 8.5 and isn't willing to budge on that number. But that's me.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 24, 2018, 06:48:58 PM
Other teams go through this and are able to sign players at team friendly deals, why should the Leafs be any different? They've amassed quite a bit of young talent and players ultimately want to win so the Leafs are as good an option as anyone right now.

I feel like I've already gone into why the Leafs might have a tougher sell on getting guys to buy into team-friendly, and let's be real when we say that what we really mean is under-market, deals. The idea that market size/team wealth should play no factor in what constitutes a "fair" price for a player is effectively just buying what NHL owners want us to think about these things uncritically. If the Leafs didn't want their wealth and the actual revenue generated by their players to be a consideration when it came time to negotiate contracts, they should have fought the idea of a cap harder. Short of that, expecting individual players to negotiate from the playbook you wrote for your own benefit strikes me as a tough sell when you're dealing with smart and experienced agents. Especially when the media pressure that could be focused on the team if they start poorly or have a disappointing season is much greater here than elsewhere.

And I wouldn't just necessarily buy the narrative that Nylander wants 8.5 and isn't willing to budge on that number. But that's me.
The players realize the grass isn't greener on the other side. Sure maybe Nylander could get more with another team, but will that other team also be able to pay Matthews and Marner all they want as well? Nope. So he's basically stuck where he either takes a salary that fits within a good team structure and has a chance to win for a few years or he asks to be traded where he can be paid allot more but has fewer stars to play with. It's like this on every team, like I said early on, the system is what it is, and there's no changing it now.  Do I care? Not really, I just want the Leafs to win in whatever way they can.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 24, 2018, 06:51:18 PM
Well, Zee and I are clearly upset with this entire situation, so the Leafs and Nylander need to take our feelings into account and get the damn contract signed already.

Nik eluded to this the other day, but this is Shanahan and Dubas' first big free agent test, and they haven't been very successful yet, given the bluster from Dubas this summer. 

They basked in the glory of the Tavares signing all summer, but now I've noticed far less fawning.  It was Lou that signed Rielly and Kadri, even Andersen, and to a much lesser extent, Zaitsev...but Hyman and Brown, and Marleau.  The Hainsey deal looks fine too.  Carrick got a $1.3m one year deal from Dubas that none of us felt was of good value, and at this point, it looks as though he'll be a press box guy..and the Johnsson deal was not what the Leafs should want.

They've got Gardiner to go along with Marner and Matthews this year.  Even Kapanen is due for a deal, but we'll see how his year goes. 

I think this Nylander situation is going to be very interesting for the agents of these other guys coming up.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on September 24, 2018, 06:56:58 PM
Yeah Lou would be so much better for where this team is! Lol (https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/islanders).
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 24, 2018, 06:59:17 PM
The players realize the grass isn't greener on the other side. Sure maybe Nylander could get more with another team, but will that other team also be able to pay Matthews and Marner all they want as well? Nope. So he's basically stuck where he either takes a salary that fits within a good team structure and has a chance to win for a few years or he asks to be traded where he can be paid allot more but has fewer stars to play with. It's like this on every team, like I said early on, the system is what it is, and there's no changing it now.  Do I care? Not really, I just want the Leafs to win in whatever way they can.

I actually don't think the players realize the grass isn't greener.

We're talking about millions of dollars here, and I don't think it's incumbent on any player to take less than what he feels he should get.

These guys are mercenaries.  You want them to buy into a narrative that they may not give a damn about.  And that's OK with me.  But as a fan of the team, I'd sure prefer he did buy into it. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 24, 2018, 07:03:01 PM
The players realize the grass isn't greener on the other side. Sure maybe Nylander could get more with another team, but will that other team also be able to pay Matthews and Marner all they want as well?

No, but that team might have other good players that they already have signed and would provide a competitive team all the same. There are lots of pretty good teams with cap room. Vegas, New Jersey, etc

It's like this on every team, like I said early on, the system is what it is, and there's no changing it now.

Thing is, the "system" hasn't really been tested like this before. None of the super profitable teams have really had to deal with elite young players signing new contracts. The Rangers haven't, the Leafs haven't really and except for Subban(where he got the highest AAV for any defenseman/3rd highest overall/13% of the cap) the Habs haven't either.

The system, as it exists, says that Teams are limited in how much they can pay players. It doesn't say anything about how that limited amount gets distributed outside of not being able to pay players past a maximum. Beyond that, it's just arguments. And there's nothing inherently wrong for a player like Nylander to reject one of those arguments in favour of thinking that he shouldn't be constrained by what a guy in Winnipeg thinks is fair for his situation.

Of course, that might not be Nylander's thinking and he just wants a certain amount of scratch so he can buy as many Koenigseggs as he wants but for all the talk about the "leverage" teams may or may not have we're kind of glossing over that it's coming from teams using the RFA mechanism to try and get players to sign under-market deals, rather than to just let them retain players through fair market deals.

That may be something they're broadly allowed to do under the CBA but by that same token Nylander or any other RFA is equally free to say, "Nah, that doesn't work for me" and negotiate on that basis.

Again, if the Leafs wanted to make signing their players easy they shouldn't have signed onto a system that said they should have to care about revenues in Winnipeg.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 24, 2018, 07:06:21 PM
Well, Zee and I are clearly upset with this entire situation, so the Leafs and Nylander need to take our feelings into account and get the damn contract signed already.

Nik eluded to this the other day, but this is Shanahan and Dubas' first big free agent test, and they haven't been very successful yet, given the bluster from Dubas this summer. 

They basked in the glory of the Tavares signing all summer, but now I've noticed far less fawning.  It was Lou that signed Rielly and Kadri, even Andersen, and to a much lesser extent, Zaitsev...but Hyman and Brown, and Marleau.  The Hainsey deal looks fine too.  Carrick got a $1.3m one year deal from Dubas that none of us felt was of good value, and at this point, it looks as though he'll be a press box guy..and the Johnsson deal was not what the Leafs should want.

They've got Gardiner to go along with Marner and Matthews this year.  Even Kapanen is due for a deal, but we'll see how his year goes. 

I think this Nylander situation is going to be very interesting for the agents of these other guys coming up.
I don't dispute the contracts for Rielly, Kadri and Andersen are good signings, but those players were in a far different situation than Nylander is right now. Andersen wasn't even proven as a starter, Kadri had off ice issues and didn't score at the rate he has the last 2 seasons and Rielly didn't exactly set the league on fire in his first 3 seasons but the Leafs gave him a very good contract based on where the cap was at the time. They could also afford to do that since the team was garbage and didn't have many high cap hits. It gets far more difficult when you accumulate more and more talent.

We'll see how the 3 contracts go before you can pass judgement on Dubas and Shanahan.

One other thing I forgot. The 3rd year on that Marleau contract is hurting the Leafs here. If they had that extra $6M they could give Nylander a bit more now and not worry about it for next year with M&M coming up. That Marleau contract is actually a strike against Lou.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: slapshot on September 24, 2018, 10:51:33 PM
Switching things up a bit. Most of the pundits think Ennis automatically drops back to 4th line left wing once Nylander signs. I am thinking something else.

Babcock has been keeping Kapanen and Johnsson on the flanks of Lindholm the whole training camp. I don't think he's been super impressed with their effort, so he not going to hand them 3rd line duties over a well-rounded player, with more experience, like Connor Brown, or ahead of a veteran, with skill, working his tail off like Ennis.

I think if Nylander gets back during pre-season or later, Ennis ends up playing left wing 3rd line with Kadri and Brown, making Leivo odd man out again.

Johnsson and Kapanen will have to play better to earn their way up the lineup, that's my take.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 25, 2018, 06:49:22 AM
Switching things up a bit. Most of the pundits think Ennis automatically drops back to 4th line left wing once Nylander signs. I am thinking something else.

Babcock has been keeping Kapanen and Johnsson on the flanks of Lindholm the whole training camp. I don't think he's been super impressed with their effort, so he not going to hand them 3rd line duties over a well-rounded player, with more experience, like Connor Brown, or ahead of a veteran, with skill, working his tail off like Ennis.

I think if Nylander gets back during pre-season or later, Ennis ends up playing left wing 3rd line with Kadri and Brown, making Leivo odd man out again.

Johnsson and Kapanen will have to play better to earn their way up the lineup, that's my take.
I wouldn't disagree with Babcock based on pre-season. Johnsson and Kapanen have both been underwhelming. We know they can play better cause we've seen it so don't know what's up with those 2 right now. That said, having them on the 4th line might give the Leafs some nice scoring punch there if they get going like we know they can.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 25, 2018, 08:16:15 AM
Bob doesn't care for your feelings:


Well that changed pretty quickly for Theodore at least.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 25, 2018, 08:25:35 AM
Well that changed pretty quickly for Theodore at least.

I'm starting to think this whole NHL insider thing may, may, be just a ploy to get people desperate for any shred of poorly sourced hockey related "news" to constantly watch TSN or Sportsnet.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on September 25, 2018, 09:42:21 AM
It's usually pretty dead quiet when the lawyers are going through the proposals that the negotiation parties have settled on.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 25, 2018, 11:26:26 AM
Parsing silence now?  This is deeply philosophical in some way, but I can't put my finger on it. [emoji55]
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 25, 2018, 12:14:08 PM
Is Nick Ritchie waiting for Nylander to sign so he can ask for more than that?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 25, 2018, 12:58:42 PM
They're starting to get crazy on Leafs lunch about the Nylander contract.  Topics today ranged to what happens if Nylander demands a trade.  They all chimed in that the Leafs could just let him sit in Sweden and not trade him until he decided to come back.  They brought up an anecdote how Jim Rutherford did that with a player at one point.  Player asked to be traded and Rutherford said "The next NHL game you play will be with our team and then we'll decide if we want to trade you".

So yeah.  It's at that point in the media.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on September 25, 2018, 01:02:03 PM
They're starting to get crazy on Leafs lunch about the Nylander contract.  Topics today ranged to what happens if Nylander demands a trade.  They all chimed in that the Leafs could just let him sit in Sweden and not trade him until he decided to come back.  They brought up an anecdote how Jim Rutherford did that with a player at one point.  Player asked to be traded and Rutherford said "The next NHL game you play will be with our team and then we'll decide if we want to trade you".

So yeah.  It's at that point in the media.

Training camp has been so uneventful and boring that they need to fill up the hours someway. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 25, 2018, 06:35:41 PM

My god, some GMs are so, so, so stupid.

edit: Like seriously, I'm saving this tweet the next time anybody makes an "appeal to authority" argument.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 25, 2018, 07:01:49 PM

I know we're long past the point of expecting even basic journalistic professionalism from hockey insiders but that's just such a perfect example of how useless an anonymous source is.

Because it's pretty stupid, no matter who said it. There were always going to be comps that supported what the Leafs wanted and comps that supported what Nylander wanted. Even if Theodore was a comp that did work for the Leafs, and I think a strong argument can be made that a 26 point defenseman getting 5.2 is better for Nylander, it's not like one more example is going to drastically shift things.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 25, 2018, 08:56:45 PM
The M. Night Shymalamammaa twist is that the GM quoted was Dubas
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 26, 2018, 03:02:26 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Rrnwn3L.jpg)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on September 26, 2018, 03:15:27 PM
(https://i.imgur.com/Rrnwn3L.jpg)
2 big thumbs up! Sweat him out.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Michael on September 27, 2018, 11:41:22 AM
Maybe someone has already said this, and if so then I apologize. I have not read all of this thread.

My guess is that Marner will be signed pretty quickly after Nylander is done. He will need to be. The setup that Marner is in right now might lead to him getting 90 - 100 points. That would be great... right up until he wants $10 million per year.

My guess on Leaf wants here is:
- Nylander to a friendly 6 year deal
- Marner for more money and an 8 year deal
- Matthews for the real big cash and an 8 year deal
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 27, 2018, 11:55:22 AM
Interesting CBA wrinkle.  If the Leafs sign Nylander after the season starts, they can see a cap savings in years 2+.   Especially if they front load it.

(Note.  Not sure why Nylander would want such a high salary on the first year, if he's only getting a percentage of it)


Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Hobbes on September 27, 2018, 12:19:36 PM
Maybe someone has already said this, and if so then I apologize. I have not read all of this thread.

My guess is that Marner will be signed pretty quickly after Nylander is done. He will need to be. The setup that Marner is in right now might lead to him getting 90 - 100 points. That would be great... right up until he wants $10 million per year.

My guess on Leaf wants here is:
- Nylander to a friendly 6 year deal
- Marner for more money and an 8 year deal
- Matthews for the real big cash and an 8 year deal

If I were Marner I'd want to bet on myself to have a great season and up my value. The Leafs might want to ink him to a 8 x $8 but I'm not sure Marner would want to sign that right now. Sure, there's the security factor...but he could easily be leaving $2m/year on the table compared to a slam-dunk $10m if he racks up that 100-point season with Tavares (and makes himself an indispensable part of the PK in addition to the PP while he's at it).
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on September 27, 2018, 01:09:56 PM
One other thing I forgot. The 3rd year on that Marleau contract is hurting the Leafs here. If they had that extra $6M they could give Nylander a bit more now and not worry about it for next year with M&M coming up. That Marleau contract is actually a strike against Lou.

My recollection is that some members of these boards claimed there was no possible way Marleauís 3rd year would be on our books and hence we should ignore that when evaluating his signing. Iím not so sure, but weíll see.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 27, 2018, 03:27:13 PM
I think Gardiner's upcoming contract may be the one they have to walk away from. Especially with Theodore's signing.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 27, 2018, 04:00:21 PM
I think Gardiner's upcoming contract may be the one they have to walk away from. Especially with Theodore's signing.

They have 30 mill available next year according to Cap Friendly. 35 is the cap goes up by 5 mill and it may not. Horton I think puts it up to 40 available? In that 40 they have to pay Nylander, Marner, and Matthews, what's that? 25 million if they're lucky, leaving 15 million. They'll have to sign Leivo (ha), Kapanen, Johnsson, replace or sign Ennis, and Lindholm. Replace Hainesy. Resign or replace Carrick and they'll need a backup goaltender. That's 8 guys for 2 million on average each. that's probably dooable, but if you sign Gardiner to 7 million, that leaves 8 million to sign 8 guys, and two of them are going to want to get raises, probably (Kap and AJ).

If they get rid or Marleau's contract, maybe, but it's still super tight.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Highlander on September 27, 2018, 09:48:43 PM
I think Gardiner's upcoming contract may be the one they have to walk away from. Especially with Theodore's signing.

They have 30 mill available next year according to Cap Friendly. 35 is the cap goes up by 5 mill and it may not. Horton I think puts it up to 40 available? In that 40 they have to pay Nylander, Marner, and Matthews, what's that? 25 million if they're lucky, leaving 15 million. They'll have to sign Leivo (ha), Kapanen, Johnsson, replace or sign Ennis, and Lindholm. Replace Hainesy. Resign or replace Carrick and they'll need a backup goaltender. That's 8 guys for 2 million on average each. that's probably dooable, but if you sign Gardiner to 7 million, that leaves 8 million to sign 8 guys, and two of them are going to want to get raises, probably (Kap and AJ).

If they get rid or Marleau's contract, maybe, but it's still super tight.
They way Gardner is playing (not so good) he could go and bring in a great prospect or pick and save us a bundle after this season.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 29, 2018, 12:29:18 PM
I don't think the Dubas thread should become another Nylander thread so in that spirit I'd like to point out something in a Star article. We've had unconfirmed media reports that Nylander is asking for 8 million or maybe more. A lot of people have taken that as effectively hard fact and used this one report to paint Nylander as unrealistic or greedy(despite, as I've shown, it's a fairly defensible number on a long term deal when viewed through the lens of some of his contemporaries)

But from a Star article (https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2018/09/28/william-nylander-not-going-anywhere-soon-leafs-gm-says.html) today:

Quote
The Swedish right winger is believed to be asking for $8 million, with the Leafs countering at around $6 million. Dubas did not speak about specific numbers, but added that long-term deals can be difficult.

There isn't any mention of term but it seems unlikely that it would be one side talking 8 years and another talking 6 at this point.

So with the caveat that we don't know anything about term:

1) I think Nylander's believed position is probably more in line with league salaries than the Leafs' believed offer

2) A two million dollar a year difference is very significant
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on September 29, 2018, 12:56:02 PM
What I've consistently heard on sports radio is that Nylander's 8 million ask is with a finger pointing at Draisaitl's 8.5 million. Which is then immediately proclaimed to be a bad deal for the Oilers. I remember thinking that was an overpayment.

I do agree that something north of 7 is more in line with league salaries. But I suppose Dubas would say something south of 7 is more in line with Leaf salaries.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 29, 2018, 01:12:19 PM
What I've consistently heard on sports radio is that Nylander's 8 million ask is with a finger pointing at Draisaitl's 8.5 million. Which is then immediately proclaimed to be a bad deal for the Oilers. I remember thinking that was an overpayment.

As I've said earlier, I don't think that Nylander necessarily has to look at Draisaitl to arrive around 8 million on a long term deal. I think there are a lot of deals that support an ask in that general vicinity. That said, I'm not sure I agree re: the Draisaitl deal. Maybe Edmonton saw something they liked in Draisaitl and knowing that they have a tough sell up there they maybe paid extra to keep him fat and happy for 8 years.

But even forgetting that, even if it is a "bad" deal, the extent to which it's a bad deal doesn't seem super relevant. If the argument re: RFAs is that rather than there being an actual market price for their services they're expected to just negotiate on whatever established salary structure there is, I think all deals within that structure then become equally relevant, good or bad.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 30, 2018, 09:51:49 AM
Interesting CBA wrinkle.  If the Leafs sign Nylander after the season starts, they can see a cap savings in years 2+.   Especially if they front load it.

(Note.  Not sure why Nylander would want such a high salary on the first year, if he's only getting a percentage of it)

Yeah I am cautiously hopeful that this is exactly what is happening.  It could be win-win for both the player and the team.  Nylander will get more money, and the Leafs will get some cap savings that will come in very handy.  I'm thinking one or two days into the season we will see Nylander signed.  Perhaps they have already alluded to this fact with his agent.  I'm not sure if that is allowed because they are kind of abusing the CBA by doing this.  In any event, we'll see.  I am hopeful.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: L K on September 30, 2018, 11:35:40 AM
I think itís stupidly optimistic to expect there to be any cap shenanigans with any lander intentionally holding out until the season.  Heíll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs arenít signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 30, 2018, 12:33:42 PM
I think itís stupidly optimistic to expect there to be any cap shenanigans with any lander intentionally holding out until the season.  Heíll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs arenít signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.

^^
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on September 30, 2018, 12:42:37 PM
Heíll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs arenít signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.
And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 30, 2018, 01:08:07 PM

Hey, if Nylander signs a deal with a ton of money in signing bonuses would they just pro-rate the signing bonus for the first year? Or could he sign a deal with a big signing bonus after the year begins and get the full amount?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on September 30, 2018, 01:18:36 PM
Heíll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs arenít signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.
And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.

Sometimes, for some athletes, I think these contracts act as status symbols --- it's more than just the money, if that makes sense.  For instance, if Matthews feels he is better than Eichel, he may want the status of a larger contract than Eichel's (to take one example).
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 30, 2018, 01:34:18 PM
And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less.

I've said this before but that seems like something that isn't likely to be a major concern. Those sorts of injuries are pretty rare and if it's something they're really concerned about they're probably better off insuring themselves against it than negotiating on the basis of it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on September 30, 2018, 02:27:51 PM
Heíll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs arenít signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.
And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.

Sometimes, for some athletes, I think these contracts act as status symbols --- it's more than just the money, if that makes sense.  For instance, if Matthews feels he is better than Eichel, he may want the status of a larger contract than Eichel's (to take one example).
Totally makes sense.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 30, 2018, 02:29:32 PM
Interesting CBA wrinkle.  If the Leafs sign Nylander after the season starts, they can see a cap savings in years 2+.   Especially if they front load it.

(Note.  Not sure why Nylander would want such a high salary on the first year, if he's only getting a percentage of it)

Yeah I am cautiously hopeful that this is exactly what is happening.  It could be win-win for both the player and the team.  Nylander will get more money, and the Leafs will get some cap savings that will come in very handy.  I'm thinking one or two days into the season we will see Nylander signed.  Perhaps they have already alluded to this fact with his agent.  I'm not sure if that is allowed because they are kind of abusing the CBA by doing this.  In any event, we'll see.  I am hopeful.
The problem is "a few days" doesn't give you anything, you have to have him sit a month to see a significant cap savings in years 2+
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: L K on September 30, 2018, 03:37:13 PM
Heíll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs arenít signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.
And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.

UFA contracts don't equate with RFA years but if I'm Marner/Nylander/Matthews I'm looking at the last two years and thinking why should I be making 4 million dollars less than Tavares and playing for 7 million.

Tavares - 65G 85A 150P (159GP)
Matthews - 74G 58A 132P  (144GP)
Marner - 41G 89A 130P (159GP)
Nylander - 42G 80A 122P (163GP)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bates on September 30, 2018, 03:51:22 PM
Well I guess we have established Matthews as under $12.5 then.
 
Heíll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs arenít signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.
And that's a great point for all of them. Do Mitch and Matthews take the guaranteed money now? Injuries can happen and if either gets hurt for a significant amount of time, their 8 x whatever will be less. Do they look at a guy like Tavares and think, he gave up 2 mill a year to come play with us, do we take a haircut too? Pretty sure it's been discussed amongst them. It's a tough call but I think when all is said and done, these guys want to win and the difference of 4 or 8 mill over their careers isn't going to have a very big impact on their lives. I have a feeling that both Matthews and Marner are close to done already and they're waiting for Willie. I hope the top 4 will come in under 40 million.

Sometimes, for some athletes, I think these contracts act as status symbols --- it's more than just the money, if that makes sense.  For instance, if Matthews feels he is better than Eichel, he may want the status of a larger contract than Eichel's (to take one example).
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on September 30, 2018, 04:11:50 PM
UFA contracts don't equate with RFA years but if I'm Marner/Nylander/Matthews I'm looking at the last two years and thinking why should I be making 4 million dollars less than Tavares and playing for 7 million.

Tavares - 65G 85A 150P (159GP)
Matthews - 74G 58A 132P  (144GP)
Marner - 41G 89A 130P (159GP)
Nylander - 42G 80A 122P  (163GP)

Yeah and additionally, I think when people say these guys are going to be motivated by winning have a ways to go to then think it just figures that they're going to be interested in taking a haircut. I think most of them are confident enough in their own abilities that they think they'll be able to win in most situations.

Considering the real argument for "taking less to win" isn't so much about signing guys like Nylander but rather giving Dubas less to work with at the end of the roster, you're basically asking players like Marner or Nylander to think that whether or not they can put together a winning team depends on the difference between Hainsey and a minimum salary guy.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 30, 2018, 04:27:07 PM
I think itís stupidly optimistic to expect there to be any cap shenanigans with any lander intentionally holding out until the season.  Heíll get paid either way but if he gets in a car accident tomorrow the Leafs arenít signing him to an 8 year 7+ million dollar deal.
Maybe he will remain indoors for a few days.  ;)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 30, 2018, 07:46:15 PM
For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages :)

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 30, 2018, 07:57:33 PM
For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages :)

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.

There should be some middle ground though.  I agree with Nik's point in the Dubas thread about how this summer, with respect to contract negotiations for the big three, can't really be seen as a success. 

To me the problem is that there is an insistence on a long term deal.  At this point, if there isn't a fit on a long term deal, then go shorter.  Then it becomes a two or three year problem to solve. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on September 30, 2018, 08:04:11 PM
For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages :)

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.

There should be some middle ground though.  I agree with Nik's point in the Dubas thread about how this summer, with respect to contract negotiations for the big three, can't really be seen as a success. 

To me the problem is that there is an insistence on a long term deal.  At this point, if there isn't a fit on a long term deal, then go shorter.  Then it becomes a two or three year problem to solve.
I get the impression that Dubas doesn't like to put things off. Sure he could push the problem to 2 years down the road with a bridge but he wants to get long term cost certainty now
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 30, 2018, 08:11:13 PM
For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages :)

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.

There should be some middle ground though.  I agree with Nik's point in the Dubas thread about how this summer, with respect to contract negotiations for the big three, can't really be seen as a success. 

To me the problem is that there is an insistence on a long term deal.  At this point, if there isn't a fit on a long term deal, then go shorter.  Then it becomes a two or three year problem to solve.
I get the impression that Dubas doesn't like to put things off. Sure he could push the problem to 2 years down the road with a bridge but he wants to get long term cost certainty now

I don't get that thinking though.  In two years, when Marleau's contract comes off the books, you could conceivably give that money to Nylander, along with what he is making now minus the cost of an entry level player to replace him.  That's based on the premise that Marner and Matthews get signed next year. 

I think one of the major sticking points on this deal is that Nylander doesn't want his contract to be that much further behind Marners and Matthews, but those deals haven't been signed yet.  Also at this point it is really hard to predict how much they are going to sign for.  If Matthews comes out and hits 100 points this year, you bet he is going to want more than Tavares.  Maybe Tavares outscores Matthews, and that means that there is more of an argument to pay him less than Tavares.  Maybe Marner outscores them both.  There are too many moving parts here.  So I think the hang up is that Nylander is looking at this and saying, you know, in a years time, Marner and Matthews are going to be potentially locked in on contracts that are higher than 10 million per, and here I will be locked in on a contract where I am only getting 8 per.  So go shorter.  Get Nylander in camp.  Have the best season you can this year, and then deal with the problem in two years.  If the contract is that much of a problem, he can be moved at that time.  It also give the Leafs time to see if this 4 headed monster approach is going to work. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on September 30, 2018, 08:48:05 PM
I thought this post was interesting:
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/leon-draisaitl-is-not-a-1-center.2530675/

With McDavid:

61 points (2.78 P/60)
55.6% CF
54.43% GF
5.59% CFRel (16-17), 7.06% CFRel (17-18) (Average 6.325% CFRel)
6.49% GFRel (16-17), 1.99% GFRel (17-18) (Average 4.24% GFRel)
56% OZFO

Without McDavid:

44 points (2.27 P/60)
49.2% CF
45.16% GF
-1.53% CFRel (16-17), 0.77% CFRel (17-18) (Average -0.38% CFRel)
-3.62% GFRel (16-17), -5.24% GFRel (17-18) (Average -4.43% GFRel)
52.6% OZFO

I can't find a similar analysis for Nylander with Matthews, but I'd be interested to see what the dropoff is.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on September 30, 2018, 10:12:15 PM
For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages :)

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.

There should be some middle ground though.  I agree with Nik's point in the Dubas thread about how this summer, with respect to contract negotiations for the big three, can't really be seen as a success. 

To me the problem is that there is an insistence on a long term deal.  At this point, if there isn't a fit on a long term deal, then go shorter.  Then it becomes a two or three year problem to solve.
If I were running the team I would want all three of those guys locked up for as long as possible.  I would sign them to the longest contract they would agree to with me.  Players like that don't grow on trees.  All three are elite.  I would cut the payroll in other areas if I had to.  And really you could get a haul of prospects for any of those guys if you were ever forced to trade them.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 01, 2018, 05:54:12 AM
For anyone new to this thread, just read this page and you'll get the summary of the last 15 pages :)

You really can't fault either side for not budging. Toronto is trying to afford this group of young players. Nylander is trying to get paid what he's worth. It's the right of both parties to do whatever the heck they want.

There should be some middle ground though.  I agree with Nik's point in the Dubas thread about how this summer, with respect to contract negotiations for the big three, can't really be seen as a success. 

To me the problem is that there is an insistence on a long term deal.  At this point, if there isn't a fit on a long term deal, then go shorter.  Then it becomes a two or three year problem to solve.

We'd all like to thnk there'd be some middle ground. Or at least hope for it. We also know that it's rarely the case. Both sides are playing a waiting game. It'll come down to which side caves first.

That being said, perhaps one side is willing to compromise a little right now and the other side is holding firm. Can't really be sure.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 01, 2018, 08:31:52 AM
I get the impression that Dubas doesn't like to put things off. Sure he could push the problem to 2 years down the road with a bridge but he wants to get long term cost certainty now

I don't think anyone doubts why Dubas would want what he apparently wants but not having flexibility on either dollars or term is probably the main cause of why there's an impasse.

And I really think that a bridge deal isn't just delaying the problem. With cap growth, contracts coming off the books and potentially new wrinkles post-CBA negotiations it might be a fairly creative way of actually dealing with the problem.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Hobbes on October 03, 2018, 07:31:00 AM
Reading an interview that Jonas Seigel did with Kyle Dubas (https://theathletic.com/555744/2018/10/01/one-on-one-with-leafs-gm-kyle-dubas-on-babcock-offer-sheets-pitching-tavares-and-gardiners-future/) that was posted a couple days ago in The Athletic...

I don't want to quote too much of it but of significant interest is (added emphasis is mine):
Quote
Seigel: Speaking of some of those younger players. Isnít it a risk to wait on extensions for Auston and Mitch given their potential this year?

Dubas: ...Itís everybodyís ambition to continue to work towards deals that will keep them here, we hope, for their entire careers. That remains our ambition, what weíre working towards...We have to make it all fit. The players have all pledged that they want to make it all fit. Now itís just working towards something that is fair...itís been a good process with all of them, with their families, with their representatives, and weíll just continue to work towards it during the season...

Seigel: When you make the complexity of it ó and this is something Iíve wondered about ó how do you hit on the exact number that makes sense for the Leafs while projecting long-term? How do you decide X is good?

Dubas: ...We try to project everybody out ó the players, the salary cap, what our team structure is going to be ó and then itís up to us to continue to work with our group of players and show, ďWe can make this work. We absolutely know we can make it work. Hereís how we have to make it work. Hereís what we need everybody to do.Ē We want all the players to be treated fairly, but we also know that they all want to be here and play together and that was a process we went through before we started the recruitment of John, and the meeting with John. We just have to continue to stay at it, and continue to work with their representatives. Our goal, and theirs, are stated as everyone wants to be here for a long time so eventually weíll get to that point.

Seigel: So did you communicate with that group before John, that weíre gonna try to do this and doing this means we kinda need to everybody to work together a little bit and think big picture?

Dubas: Our way of approaching was that we wanted the players ó I always view it, especially when thereís a salary cap, every decision that you make impacts all of the players...Our tact was, before we even went and met with John, to be in touch with our own players and say, ďThis is something weíre thinking of doing. Donít answer right now. How do you feel about it?Ē And they were all unanimously on side with wanting us to push and add him. Some people might not like that we would have those discussions, but I think when you have such a collection of young, talented players, and their pay is only going to continue to go up, you need to be able to have that relationship with them where you can say, ďHereís what weíre thinking of doing. What do you think about it?Ē Because as John has said a number of times, ďI didnít want to come to a team and have them have to subtract two or three guys. Kind of defeats the purpose.Ē So that was our entire ambition before we approached John was to make sure that everyone internally was on-side and then we rolled from there.
(the entire interview is worth reading)

So assuming Dubas is telling the truth, it would seem that before they even considered making a pitch to Tavares they made sure the big three were all on board with taking a bit of a pay cut to be able to stay together long term. Obviously there can be some disagreement about just how much of one is necessary for each, but if the $8m ask from Nylander is accurate that doesn't seem to be much (any) of a concession.

I can't help but wonder how much of this delay on Nylander's contract is the agent trying to squeeze full value out of the Leafs, and Dubas pushing back with "except Willie agreed to a more team-friendly number back before our Tavares pitch" and neither side is budging.

If that's what is happening I can't help but feel a bit annoyed at Nylander. He absolutely has every right to try to get every dollar he can squeeze out of the team, but in that case he should have made sure the team as aware of that before they went out to make the pitch to John. I really hope that's not the case.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 07:54:30 AM
(the entire interview is worth reading)

So assuming Dubas is telling the truth, it would seem that before they even considered making a pitch to Tavares they made sure the big three were all on board with taking a bit of a pay cut to be able to stay together long term. Obviously there can be some disagreement about just how much of one is necessary for each, but if the $8m ask from Nylander is accurate that doesn't seem to be much (any) of a concession.

I can't help but wonder how much of this delay on Nylander's contract is the agent trying to squeeze full value out of the Leafs, and Dubas pushing back with "except Willie agreed to a more team-friendly number back before our Tavares pitch" and neither side is budging.

If that's what is happening I can't help but feel a bit annoyed at Nylander. He absolutely has every right to try to get every dollar he can squeeze out of the team, but in that case he should have made sure the team as aware of that before they went out to make the pitch to John. I really hope that's not the case.

I don't really see how that follows. More to the point, it raises a pretty obvious question. If Nylander did agree to some team friendly rate prior to the Leafs pursuing Tavares, why wouldn't you sign Nylander to that rate before pursuing Tavares? Even if Nylander had just agreed to a discount in principle, why not pursue it?

It seems unlikely to pin it to the contingency of Tavares signing because that cap space is still valuable. It seems pretty unlikely that Nylander et. al would agree to a reduced rate in order to land Tavares but not care as much about the competitiveness of the team in his absence.

On a slightly side note, I'm really puzzled by the contrast in ways people seem to be viewing Nylander and the way they're viewing Tavares. I get that Tavares was a UFA and so people are less likely to view him as Leafs' property than Nylander but Tavares at 11 million dollars is not a team friendly contract regardless of what other teams offered him. Tavares could have taken a deal more in line with what Stamkos took from Tampa which is a deal that really helps his team by genuinely representing a discount in terms of player's ability vs. his place in the league's salary structure.

Tavares didn't do that. Tavares, who's never cracked 90 points or won a major trophy, is getting the second highest cap hit in the league. Even if Nylander gets 8 million a year, it seems far less likely that Tavares' performance will be in line with his salary than Nylander's will be with his.

The idea that Tavares took a discount is only true in the sense that he took less than his market rate. That doesn't make it particularly conducive to keeping the team together.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on October 03, 2018, 08:32:01 AM
If my company wants to hire some slick sales guy to drive revenue up, I'm going to be on board with that, knowing that if the company does well, I'll get a bigger bonus at the end of the year. But if they come to me and say I need to not get a raise for the next 8 years to afford that sales guy, I'm not sure I'm going to be as on board with that.

Nylander wants the team to win, Tavares helps with that. Nylander wants to make money, I don't really see how Tavares has anything to do with that, outside of a Stanley Cup bonus.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 03, 2018, 12:06:19 PM
(the entire interview is worth reading)

So assuming Dubas is telling the truth, it would seem that before they even considered making a pitch to Tavares they made sure the big three were all on board with taking a bit of a pay cut to be able to stay together long term. Obviously there can be some disagreement about just how much of one is necessary for each, but if the $8m ask from Nylander is accurate that doesn't seem to be much (any) of a concession.

I can't help but wonder how much of this delay on Nylander's contract is the agent trying to squeeze full value out of the Leafs, and Dubas pushing back with "except Willie agreed to a more team-friendly number back before our Tavares pitch" and neither side is budging.

If that's what is happening I can't help but feel a bit annoyed at Nylander. He absolutely has every right to try to get every dollar he can squeeze out of the team, but in that case he should have made sure the team as aware of that before they went out to make the pitch to John. I really hope that's not the case.

I don't really see how that follows. More to the point, it raises a pretty obvious question. If Nylander did agree to some team friendly rate prior to the Leafs pursuing Tavares, why wouldn't you sign Nylander to that rate before pursuing Tavares? Even if Nylander had just agreed to a discount in principle, why not pursue it?

It seems unlikely to pin it to the contingency of Tavares signing because that cap space is still valuable. It seems pretty unlikely that Nylander et. al would agree to a reduced rate in order to land Tavares but not care as much about the competitiveness of the team in his absence.

On a slightly side note, I'm really puzzled by the contrast in ways people seem to be viewing Nylander and the way they're viewing Tavares. I get that Tavares was a UFA and so people are less likely to view him as Leafs' property than Nylander but Tavares at 11 million dollars is not a team friendly contract regardless of what other teams offered him. Tavares could have taken a deal more in line with what Stamkos took from Tampa which is a deal that really helps his team by genuinely representing a discount in terms of player's ability vs. his place in the league's salary structure.

Tavares didn't do that. Tavares, who's never cracked 90 points or won a major trophy, is getting the second highest cap hit in the league. Even if Nylander gets 8 million a year, it seems far less likely that Tavares' performance will be in line with his salary than Nylander's will be with his.

The idea that Tavares took a discount is only true in the sense that he took less than his market rate. That doesn't make it particularly conducive to keeping the team together.

Man, you really do work for Nylander's agency don't you.

Here's my take:  I don't doubt for a second that Nylander agreed that he'd be willing to take a bit of a haircut on his contract to bring JT on board.  That doesn't mean they agreed to a number for him or how much that haircut would be.

On the haircut, I'd guess Nylander is saying 4M total (or 500k per year) and Leafs are saying 8M total (or 1M per year).

However, the sticking point is agreeing to his contract value BEFORE the haircut.  Nylander camp is probably saying Draisatl and Leaf camp is probably saying Pastrnak, with two "expensive" years tacked on (ie, lets say for simplicity we are only considering 8 yr deal... Pasta's contract plus two years at 10M works out to 7.5M per year pre-haircut). 

Add in the haircuts the team vs Nylander are hoping for and you end up at 8M ask from Nylander- which he would consider team friendly compared to Draisatl- and 6.5M ask from Leafs.

Regarding the comparison to Tavares... yes, I agree as much as the discount that Tavares took to come to the Leafs compared to his other offers is nice, it doesn't make it team friendly. 

In the same vien... 8M ask from Nylander woudn't be team friendly IMO, and since he's coming from a place with much less leverage, I don't see why we shouldn't expect a number in the middle of those two positions.  ie 8 x 7.25M would probably still be considered a "discount" to some, but it doesn't mean its team friendly either.

Furthermore, if all you look at is points there is no doubt that Nylander will have an easier time "living up to his contract" vs Tavares.  But that ignores a few factors- its typically much harder to live up to a UFA contract than it is to a RFA contract.  And that is why I doubt the Leafs will dip into the UFA market very much moving forward.  And there are things that Tavares brings to the table that aren't measured in points and that factors into their value, as much as the spreadsheet types prefer to ignore them when assessing if the player lived up to his contract.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 12:17:00 PM
In the same vien... 8M ask from Nylander woudn't be team friendly IMO, and since he's coming from a place with much less leverage, I don't see why we shouldn't expect a number in the middle of those two positions.

I don't think any player, Tavares or Nylander or elsewise, has an obligation to sign a team friendly contract.

My point isn't that Nylander is being team friendly, it's that both guys are looking to sign market rate deals but one is being called a greedy so and so and the other is a few pigeon-befriendings away from canonization.

And there are things that Tavares brings to the table that aren't measured in points and that factors into their value, as much as the spreadsheet types prefer to ignore them when assessing if the player lived up to his contract.

Whether or not this is true about Tavares, I don't think it's necessarily untrue about Nylander. Or, if it is, it will continue to be untrue over the 8 years of the deal. I think Nylander has potential for growth in all facets of the game, spreadsheet entries and beyond.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 03, 2018, 12:37:59 PM
In the same vien... 8M ask from Nylander woudn't be team friendly IMO, and since he's coming from a place with much less leverage, I don't see why we shouldn't expect a number in the middle of those two positions.

I don't think any player, Tavares or Nylander or elsewise, has an obligation to sign a team friendly contract.

My point isn't that Nylander is being team friendly, it's that both guys are looking to sign market rate deals but one is being called a greedy so and so and the other is a few pigeon-befriendings away from canonization.

And there are things that Tavares brings to the table that aren't measured in points and that factors into their value, as much as the spreadsheet types prefer to ignore them when assessing if the player lived up to his contract.

Whether or not this is true about Tavares, I don't think it's necessarily untrue about Nylander. Or, if it is, it will continue to be untrue over the 8 years of the deal. I think Nylander has potential for growth in all facets of the game, spreadsheet entries and beyond.

Well, nobody will call Tavares greedy when its well known he was being offered over 14M more (total) from other teams and then he signed with the Leafs.  At the end of the day, the other offers were overpayments and that happens in the UFA market.  I agree his contract isn't "team friendly" in the context of what his value is.  Also, he's under contract and playing tonight.  Hard to call a guy greedy in that case.

As for Nylander, he ISN'T playing tonight because he hasn't agreed to a contract.  So some people will look at his situation and say he is being greedy because they really want him to come in at a team friendly cap hit.  I don't agree with those people and don't like the tweets I see people sending his way because he hasn't signed.  Its despicable actually, but what else do you expect on Twitter really?


Regarding the last quote:  Agree that Nylander has the potential to provide those other aspects-  he hasn't done it yet and typically when you sign a contract its based on your past not your potential.  From that perspective, its way more likely that Nylander "lives up to his contract" because his potential is better than what he's provided in the past.  Thats the nature of UFA vs RFA deals.  And I know you hate that its that way- its been clear in your posts on this topic that you aren't a fan of the way RFA's get the short-end of the stick etc- but that's the world we live in.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 01:19:32 PM
Well, nobody will call Tavares greedy when its well known he was being offered over 14M more (total) from other teams and then he signed with the Leafs.  At the end of the day, the other offers were overpayments and that happens in the UFA market.  I agree his contract isn't "team friendly" in the context of what his value is.  Also, he's under contract and playing tonight.  Hard to call a guy greedy in that case.

As for Nylander, he ISN'T playing tonight because he hasn't agreed to a contract.  So some people will look at his situation and say he is being greedy because they really want him to come in at a team friendly cap hit.  I don't agree with those people and don't like the tweets I see people sending his way because he hasn't signed.  Its despicable actually, but what else do you expect on Twitter really?

Not much. I do occasionally expect more from people on this board but life is always about tempering expectations.

Regardless, it seems like we agree. Neither guy is being greedy, just looking after their own interests. So, again, I'm a little puzzled by the reaction. Well, no, not puzzled. But I will point out the double standard all the same.

Regarding the last quote:  Agree that Nylander has the potential to provide those other aspects-  he hasn't done it yet and typically when you sign a contract its based on your past not your potential.

I don't agree. We don't know what he may provide to the team in terms of intangible dressing room chemistry stuff and I don't think he's been a one-dimensional player on the ice.

And I know you hate that its that way- its been clear in your posts on this topic that you aren't a fan of the way RFA's get the short-end of the stick etc- but that's the world we live in.

I don't think you need to educate me on the realities of the current CBA, I'm just never going to be of the belief that a bad system justifies itself. If and when a player decides to not agree to constrain himself by it, I'm going to say he's right to do so because he is right. The system sucks, I believe it's bad for the game and for fans and I'm going to applaud anyone challenging it, even if it's only for personal gain.

But more to the point, my own personal feelings here above and beyond what I think is right is that Nylander is a 22 year old kid who's about to make what will probably be the most important financial decision of his life and no matter how much you want the team you arbitrarily root for to win their games, criticizing him for making that decision with his own financial interests at the fore is deeply messed up.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bender on October 03, 2018, 02:09:45 PM
Is there a risk that he sits out playing for the Leafs and plays in the interim in Sweden?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 03, 2018, 02:09:49 PM

Not sure bringing up his past with Detroit is relevant in any way since it was pre-cap and the Illich's pretty much printed money, but Shanny double-downs on the idea that they're expecting the big-3 to take less than market value here.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on October 03, 2018, 02:45:15 PM

Not sure bringing up his past with Detroit is relevant in any way since it was pre-cap and the Illich's pretty much printed money, but Shanny double-downs on the idea that they're expecting the big-3 to take less than market value here.
He's on record claiming he personally took less for the betterment of the team. It would be amazing if Nylander bought into the taking less thing and the rest followed. I hope it happens and certainly appreciate the sell Shanahan is doing.

Just picture it. 30 years from now in a Leafs luxury box with Matty, Marns, Tavares, and Reilly. Looking up  at your 5 Stanley cup banners and retired numbers remising about those winning years thanking each other for taking less.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 03, 2018, 02:53:06 PM
I think a big problem with these negotiations is that there's no guarantee the same principles will apply to Matthews and Marner's talks. And the fact that everybody won't shut up about how expensive those two are going to be probably doesn't help. If Nylander takes one for the team and signs long-term for $6mil how is is going to feel when Marner gets $9-10mil and Matthews $11-12mil next summer?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on October 03, 2018, 02:57:35 PM
I think a big problem with these negotiations is that there's no guarantee the same principles will apply to Matthews and Marner's talks. And the fact that everybody won't shut up about how expensive those two are going to be probably doesn't help. If Nylander takes one for the team and signs long-term for $6mil how is is going to feel when Marner gets $9-10mil and Matthews $11-12mil next summer?

They would owe it to Nylander not to do that... right?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 02:58:41 PM
I think a big problem with these negotiations is that there's no guarantee the same principles will apply to Matthews and Marner's talks. And the fact that everybody won't shut up about how expensive those two are going to be probably doesn't help. If Nylander takes one for the team and signs long-term for $6mil how is is going to feel when Marner gets $9-10mil and Matthews $11-12mil next summer?

They would owe it to Nylander not to do that... right?

No?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 03, 2018, 02:59:50 PM
I think a big problem with these negotiations is that there's no guarantee the same principles will apply to Matthews and Marner's talks. And the fact that everybody won't shut up about how expensive those two are going to be probably doesn't help. If Nylander takes one for the team and signs long-term for $6mil how is is going to feel when Marner gets $9-10mil and Matthews $11-12mil next summer?

Well, #1 he shouldn't compare himself to Matthews.  He can wonder if Matthews took enough of a discount, but the salary disparity between the two is already justified. 

#2.  If Marner was signing his contract today, there would be very little separating the two of them so if Marner's contract came in at that today, he would have every right to wonder WTF.  However, Marner could play out this season before signing and put up 90 pts this year.  After that, they are no longer comparable at the time of the contract signing.  Again, it is no longer about the actual salary itself, but the perceived discount.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 03, 2018, 03:06:17 PM
Well, #1 he shouldn't compare himself to Matthews.  He can wonder if Matthews took enough of a discount, but the salary disparity between the two is already justified.

I mean obviously anybody with half a brain knows Matthews is going to get paid a lot more than Nylander... but should he get paid twice as much? If Matthews takes $11-12mil is he really giving the team a break there? I think somewhere between McDavid and Eichel is pretty much where everyone agrees his market value is.

#2.  If Marner was signing his contract today, there would be very little separating the two of them so if Marner's contract came in at that today, he would have every right to wonder WTF.  However, Marner could play out this season before signing and put up 90 pts this year.  After that, they are no longer comparable at the time of the contract signing.  Again, it is no longer about the actual salary itself, but the perceived discount.

How fair is it for Nylander though to get something like $20mil less over the life of a contract than Marner simply because he had to sign his long-term deal a year before Marner's? Can you really not see why that would frustrate him a little bit?

And again, I think I went pretty high on my contract numbers there. If Marner signs for $9.5mil next do you really think he's giving the Leafs any sort of discount there?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 03, 2018, 03:07:29 PM
And just to clarify:

I hope these guys all take a small discount.  They don't have to if they don't want to and I totally understand the arguments against them doing it based on history of teams:

a)  Trading guys (its a business after all)
b)  Using the saved money on overpriced UFA's

But I still hope they all do it.  In the same vien, I have the same HOPE that the organization treats them as they should be treated after doing such a thing... not using their below market contract as a trade chip and not spending the extra money on players who don't help.

If they don't take a discount, I'm fine with it as well.  I think the team can fit them all in, they'll just have to sacrifice a little bit more around the edges (ie, moving out guys like Hyman/Brown/Kapanen) for ELC players.  I just hope we don't have to do that.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 03, 2018, 03:18:10 PM
Well, #1 he shouldn't compare himself to Matthews.  He can wonder if Matthews took enough of a discount, but the salary disparity between the two is already justified.

I mean obviously anybody with half a brain knows Matthews is going to get paid a lot more than Nylander... but should he get paid twice as much? If Matthews takes $11-12mil is he really giving the team a break there? I think somewhere between McDavid and Eichel is pretty much where everyone agrees his market value is.

#2.  If Marner was signing his contract today, there would be very little separating the two of them so if Marner's contract came in at that today, he would have every right to wonder WTF.  However, Marner could play out this season before signing and put up 90 pts this year.  After that, they are no longer comparable at the time of the contract signing.  Again, it is no longer about the actual salary itself, but the perceived discount.

How fair is it for Nylander though to get something like $20mil less over the life of a contract than Marner simply because he had to sign his long-term deal a year before Marner's? Can you really not see why that would frustrate him a little bit?

And again, I think I went pretty high on my contract numbers there. If Marner signs for $9.5mil next do you really think he's giving the Leafs any sort of discount there?

Where do I think his Matthews market value is today?  Probably 11.5-12M.  So if he signs for 11M, yes that is the small discount I'd hope for. 

On the Marner having a huge year and getting 20M more over the next 8 because of it:  He may be frustrated by it but that is life.  You have a huge contract year you get paid more.  And yes, its as FAIR as Matthews expecting a larger salary than Nylander today.  Body of work at the time of signing the contract is what matters.

No, even after a 90 pt season 9.5M for Marner is probably not a discount.  If there is one guy I hope to take a discount the most its Marner too.  And the Leafs would have PPG Gaudreau as a contract comparable to say even PPG players don't get 8 figures. 



Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 03, 2018, 03:24:26 PM
I think a big problem with these negotiations is that there's no guarantee the same principles will apply to Matthews and Marner's talks. And the fact that everybody won't shut up about how expensive those two are going to be probably doesn't help. If Nylander takes one for the team and signs long-term for $6mil how is is going to feel when Marner gets $9-10mil and Matthews $11-12mil next summer?

They would owe it to Nylander not to do that... right?

No?

Hard no.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on October 03, 2018, 03:41:33 PM
Sign Nylander to a 1 year deal, lock everybody in a room next summer, no one gets out until they have a deal done.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on October 03, 2018, 04:06:59 PM
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/shanahan-questioning-nylanders-desire-maple-leaf/

Didn't some of you give me **** for my comments about Nylander?  Sure, this is open to interpretation but it sure sounds to me as though Shanahan was questioning Nylander's desire to play for the Leafs.  We'll see how this all plays out.  I wonder if they will trade him.  Or if he will sit out.  I hope this doesn't get ugly.  You can say what you will about Nylander but he is *extremely* talented.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 03, 2018, 04:19:05 PM
If Shanahan legitimately questioned Nylander's desire to play for the Leafs then he'd have been traded by now. No chance they'd even be talking contract.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 04:25:11 PM

"I have very strong opinions on what it takes to be a Maple Leaf" says guy who was never a Maple Leaf.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: BermudaBudsFan on October 03, 2018, 04:39:23 PM

"I have very strong opinions on what it takes to be a Maple Leaf" says guy who was never a Maple Leaf.

Iím not sure that disentitles him to an opinion.  He is after all the President of the club.  You may not agree with his view but that is an entirely different matter.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 04:41:47 PM
Iím not sure that disentitles him to an opinion.

I've looked over my post a number of times and I can't for the life of me see where I said anything contrary to that.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on October 03, 2018, 04:45:29 PM
So Shanahan didn't have a stellar 03-04. Then the lockout happened and the cap came in. He signs a lower contract because of: age, performance and a salary cap OR for the better good of the team?

He did go from $6.5M to under $3M and had a couple awesome seasons under the lower contract.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: BermudaBudsFan on October 03, 2018, 04:46:05 PM
Iím not sure that disentitles him to an opinion.

I've looked over my post a number of times and I can't for the life of me see where I said anything contrary to that.

How about this then ó the fact that he never played for the team doesnít determine that his opinion of any less merit, at least to me, considering he is one its present-day builders.  I may have misinterpreted your post, but I thought that is what you were suggesting.  Cheers.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 04:50:40 PM
How about this then ó the fact that he never played for the team doesnít determine that his opinion of any less merit, at least to me, considering he is one its present-day builders.

I think it depends on the question of what other opinion it may have less merit than. I wouldn't take his opinion to have less merit than someone else who hadn't been a Maple Leaf but I think I'd rather listen to someone who'd been a Maple Leaf on the subject of being a Maple Leaf.

I'd definitely listen to Shanahan on the subject of being such a good and loyal RFA that you sign an offer sheet with another team though.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bender on October 03, 2018, 04:55:26 PM
I think a big problem with these negotiations is that there's no guarantee the same principles will apply to Matthews and Marner's talks. And the fact that everybody won't shut up about how expensive those two are going to be probably doesn't help. If Nylander takes one for the team and signs long-term for $6mil how is is going to feel when Marner gets $9-10mil and Matthews $11-12mil next summer?

On the same token Nylander had his 3yrs to show what he's got. Marner and Matthews get this year and their trajectories are higher than Nylander, so I really have no sympathy if he "feels" like he should get more when in reality he shouldn't be getting much more (if that) than Pastrnak.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: BermudaBudsFan on October 03, 2018, 04:57:47 PM
How about this then ó the fact that he never played for the team doesnít determine that his opinion of any less merit, at least to me, considering he is one its present-day builders.

I think it depends on the question of what other opinion it may have less merit than. I wouldn't take his opinion to have less merit than someone else who hadn't been a Maple Leaf but I think I'd rather listen to someone who'd been a Maple Leaf on the subject of being a Maple Leaf.

I'd definitely listen to Shanahan on the subject of being such a good and loyal RFA that you sign an offer sheet with another team though.

Well, again, it depends on which Maple Leaf you mean.  Sundin, for example, no.  Someone like, I donít know, Suglobov, probably not.  Look, I donít see that his signing an offer sheet with the Blues is terribly relevant to any of this.  Heís management, heís making a statement he thinks may have an impact.  He may have miscalculated, but I donít care that he once signed an offer sheet.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 05:02:56 PM
Well, again, it depends on which Maple Leaf you mean.  Sundin, for example, no.  Someone like, I donít know, Suglobov, probably not.

I think the tipping point there for me, the amount of time someone needs to have spent with the Leafs to have a better understanding of what it means to be a Leaf than Shanahan, is pretty low.

I'd definitely listen to, say, Kyle Wellwood on the issue.

  Look, I donít see that his signing an offer sheet with the Blues is terribly relevant to any of this.

I mean, I think it's kind of funny. And I think it's pretty useful to keep in mind that when Shanahan was in the same situation Nylander is in he did what was best for himself rather than the Devils.

Although it did work out fine for the Devils.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: BermudaBudsFan on October 03, 2018, 05:28:04 PM
Well, again, it depends on which Maple Leaf you mean.  Sundin, for example, no.  Someone like, I donít know, Suglobov, probably not.

I think the tipping point there for me, the amount of time someone needs to have spent with the Leafs to have a better understanding of what it means to be a Leaf than Shanahan, is pretty low.

I'd definitely listen to, say, Kyle Wellwood on the issue.

  Look, I donít see that his signing an offer sheet with the Blues is terribly relevant to any of this.

I mean, I think it's kind of funny. And I think it's pretty useful to keep in mind that when Shanahan was in the same situation Nylander is in he did what was best for himself rather than the Devils.

Although it did work out fine for the Devils.

Itís a technique he has decided to use.  He makes this statement, Dubas doesnít have to, and the message is sent. Hypocritical, double standard, whatever, but heís in management.  No surprise.  So heís asking him to buy into a discount to keep the team together (at least in his estimation).  Heís simply trying to do a job.  I donít mind it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 05:36:12 PM
Itís a technique he has decided to use.  He makes this statement, Dubas doesnít have to, and the message is sent. Hypocritical, double standard, whatever, but heís in management.  No surprise.  So heís asking him to buy into a discount to keep the team together (at least in his estimation).  Heís simply trying to do a job.  I donít mind it.

I don't think in this situation you need to choose between thinking he's doing this in the service of his current job and that hypocrisy on this scale impacts the way you, or me in this circumstance, think of him going forward. Especially when he brings up all of the team first sacrificing he supposedly did with the Red Wings. If he brings his past into this as relevant, it's pretty hard to ignore his being maybe the most high profile NHL player of all time to sign elsewhere as an RFA.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on October 03, 2018, 05:49:02 PM
Itís a technique he has decided to use.  He makes this statement, Dubas doesnít have to, and the message is sent. Hypocritical, double standard, whatever, but heís in management.  No surprise.  So heís asking him to buy into a discount to keep the team together (at least in his estimation).  Heís simply trying to do a job.  I donít mind it.

I don't think in this situation you need to choose between thinking he's doing this in the service of his current job and that hypocrisy on this scale impacts the way you, or me in this circumstance, think of him going forward. Especially when he brings up all of the team first sacrificing he supposedly did with the Red Wings. If he brings his past into this as relevant, it's pretty hard to ignore his being maybe the most high profile NHL player of all time to sign elsewhere as an RFA.

Maybe camp Nylander is threatening to sign an offer sheet, so this is Shanahan's response to William..."go ahead, maybe being a Leaf isn't for everyone."

There's usually a motive behind these kinds of statements, and especially from Shanahan, given his standard response would be "Kyle and Nylander's agent are taking care of this, and they'll get it figured out here sooner or later."
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 05:50:56 PM
There's usually a motive behind these kinds of statements, and especially from Shanahan, given his standard response would be "Kyle and Nylander's agent are taking care of this, and they'll get it figured out here sooner or later."

I don't think this is 4-dimensional chess we need to parse here. He's playing to the chuckleheads who think this makes Nylander not a gud enough Leafpro.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on October 03, 2018, 05:57:00 PM
There's usually a motive behind these kinds of statements, and especially from Shanahan, given his standard response would be "Kyle and Nylander's agent are taking care of this, and they'll get it figured out here sooner or later."

I don't think this is 4-dimensional chess we need to parse here. He's playing to the chuckleheads who think this makes Nylander not a gud enough Leafpro.

Yeah, I disagree.  Shanahan hasn't done this sort of thing before.  He usually keeps his cards pretty close to his vest.

I think he's responding to something specific the Nylander camp has said.  I especially think so given there's probably been a fair bit of contact over the past 24 hours or so.

Like I said, he could have given the standard answer here, and I don't think there's any benefit to Shanahan, or the Leafs, or to Dubas, to play to the idiots here.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 06:04:44 PM
Like I said, he could have given the standard answer here, and I don't think there's any benefit to Shanahan, or the Leafs, or to Dubas, to play to the idiots here.

I think you're kidding yourself if you think public pressure isn't a tactic teams frequently try in this situation. Wanting the loudest, dumbest voices out there to respond to everything Nylander does with "HOW COME YOU AREN'T A GOOD TEAM PLAYER" on Twitter definitely falls under that umbrella.

To the extent that it's effective and that means there's a tangible benefit is, I agree, pretty dubious but I'm long past the point of thinking this management team is so perfect that they only do good and smart things.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: BermudaBudsFan on October 03, 2018, 06:06:12 PM
Itís a technique he has decided to use.  He makes this statement, Dubas doesnít have to, and the message is sent. Hypocritical, double standard, whatever, but heís in management.  No surprise.  So heís asking him to buy into a discount to keep the team together (at least in his estimation).  Heís simply trying to do a job.  I donít mind it.

I don't think in this situation you need to choose between thinking he's doing this in the service of his current job and that hypocrisy on this scale impacts the way you, or me in this circumstance, think of him going forward. Especially when he brings up all of the team first sacrificing he supposedly did with the Red Wings. If he brings his past into this as relevant, it's pretty hard to ignore his being maybe the most high profile NHL player of all time to sign elsewhere as an RFA.

I try not to get sentimental about these sorts of things.  How I view Shanahan in the future isnít relevant (or how I view him today).  He now sits in a management role and is clearly trying to move things along.  Time will tell whether it was a useful statement, or not, or had no impact.

I like Nylander very much, but despite all of the ďexpertsĒ voices out there, we have no solid, confirmed knowledge as this what the state of negotiations are.  I tend not to be pro management or pro player.  We can evaluate the deal (or trade) when itís done.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 06:09:02 PM
I try not to get sentimental about these sorts of things.  How I view Shanahan in the future isnít relevant (or how I view him today). 

It's relevant to how I see Shanahan and how I talk about him and, as is very relevant here, whether or not I choose to make fun of him for such transparent hypocrisy. Whether or not that sort of thing is an effective negotiating tactic isn't particularly relevant to me. It benefits a man little to gain the whole world at the price of his soul...but for a slight discount on Nylander's contract?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on October 03, 2018, 06:10:37 PM
It sounds like Shanahan is sending a message to Nylander (and by extension Matthews and Marner) that he expects them to give the team a "hometown discount" or else he will be unable to keep them together.  It kind of sounds like he is saying to Nylander in particular that he can either take what the Leafs are offering him, or he will be traded.  That's got to be a tough pill to swallow for the players.  We'll see how this all plays out.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on October 03, 2018, 06:21:28 PM
I try not to get sentimental about these sorts of things.  How I view Shanahan in the future isnít relevant (or how I view him today). 

It's relevant to how I see Shanahan and how I talk about him and, as is very relevant here, whether or not I choose to make fun of him for such transparent hypocrisy. Whether or not that sort of thing is an effective negotiating tactic isn't particularly relevant to me. It benefits a man little to gain the whole world at the price of his soul...but for a slight discount on Nylander's contract?

I'd like to chime in here, I'm not sure that Shanahan is necessarily being hypocritical.  I think he might be daring the Nylander camp...calling their bluff.  He's not saying that signing an offer sheet is bad, he's actually saying that maybe Nylander doesn't want to be a TML.  That's not hypocritical, Shanahan obviously didn't care for being a Devil at the time he signed his offer sheet, given the current state of his negotiation.

Shanahan has a lot more information about this negotiation than we do, so I still think that he's responding to some specific statement/position/stance of Nylander's representation. 
 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: BermudaBudsFan on October 03, 2018, 06:25:22 PM
I try not to get sentimental about these sorts of things.  How I view Shanahan in the future isnít relevant (or how I view him today). 

It's relevant to how I see Shanahan and how I talk about him and, as is very relevant here, whether or not I choose to make fun of him for such transparent hypocrisy. Whether or not that sort of thing is an effective negotiating tactic isn't particularly relevant to me. It benefits a man little to gain the whole world at the price of his soul...but for a slight discount on Nylander's contract?

Sure thing.  If the goal is to go after Shanahan then mission accomplished.  And I get it ó you want Nylander signed.  I do too.  But because I donít really know whatís going on Iím not at this stage going to criticize him, Dubas, Gross, Michael Nylander or anyone else.  There will either be a deal or not and I will evaluate then.  I would like him here and I think they have a better chance of winning with him.  But it hasnít played out yet.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on October 03, 2018, 06:26:31 PM
Apparently Shanhan's "Please other people with other interests" comment was a direct shot at Nylander's father.  I'm still waiting for that apology, @CarltonTheBear.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 06:31:34 PM
I'd like to chime in here, I'm not sure that Shanahan is necessarily being hypocritical.  I think he might be daring the Nylander camp...calling their bluff.  He's not saying that signing an offer sheet is bad, he's actually saying that maybe Nylander doesn't want to be a TML.  That's not hypocritical, Shanahan obviously didn't care for being a Devil at the time he signed his offer sheet, given the current state of his negotiation.

Shanahan has a lot more information about this negotiation than we do, so I still think that he's responding to some specific statement/position/stance of Nylander's representation.

Yeah, guy. I heard you the first time. Shanahan's responding to something secret and sinister Nylander's camp did, Dubas is responding to Nylander's broken promise of taking a haircut so they can sign Tavares...I'm sure there are all manner of nefarious things Nylander's agents are doing in the dark. I, on the other hand, can only react to what I've got in front of me and Shanahan weighing in on this referencing his supposed selflessness in Detroit and not what he did in New Jersey rings that bell for me no matter what his objective or what Nylander may or may not have done.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 03, 2018, 06:35:05 PM
Apparently Shanhan's "Please other people with other interests" comment was a direct shot at Nylander's father.  I'm still waiting for that apology, @CarltonTheBear.

Yeah, I think I'll wait for somebody other than a guy on reddit named PieEatingJabroni to report that before believing it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 06:35:46 PM
If the goal is to go after Shanahan then mission accomplished.

The goal, as it were, is to express my opinions on the things and people associated with the Toronto Maple Leafs and the goings on with the club. The club President said something I found ridiculous, hence ridicule. I'd react that way regardless of my feelings on Nylander and his contract.
 
But because I donít really know whatís going on Iím not at this stage going to criticize him, Dubas, Gross, Michael Nylander or anyone else.  There will either be a deal or not and I will evaluate then.  I would like him here and I think they have a better chance of winning with him.  But it hasnít played out yet.

Again, my interest in this isn't tactical. I think you can weigh in on the ethics/morality/intellectual honesty of what someone involved in negotiations says without being overly concerned with the outcome of said negotiations.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on October 03, 2018, 06:38:31 PM
Anyone else think this gets done in the next 22 minutes? 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 06:42:50 PM
Apparently Shanhan's "Please other people with other interests" comment was a direct shot at Nylander's father.  I'm still waiting for that apology, @CarltonTheBear.

Why in the world would Shanahan saying that about Nylander's father constitute something that you're owed an apology for? Carlton didn't call you out because he didn't think anyone in the world didn't like Michael Nylander, but because the tenor and tone of the conversation wasn't helped by how you talked about Michael Nylander.

Shanahan taking a similar shot at Nylander, which if it is what he did strikes me as spectacularly bad form on his part, in no way contradicts that.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 03, 2018, 06:45:06 PM
Anyone else think this gets done in the next 22 minutes?
I saw Dubas on the phone and taking notes, must be the deals [emoji57]
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frank E on October 03, 2018, 06:49:16 PM
I'd like to chime in here, I'm not sure that Shanahan is necessarily being hypocritical.  I think he might be daring the Nylander camp...calling their bluff.  He's not saying that signing an offer sheet is bad, he's actually saying that maybe Nylander doesn't want to be a TML.  That's not hypocritical, Shanahan obviously didn't care for being a Devil at the time he signed his offer sheet, given the current state of his negotiation.

Shanahan has a lot more information about this negotiation than we do, so I still think that he's responding to some specific statement/position/stance of Nylander's representation.

Yeah, guy. I heard you the first time. Shanahan's responding to something secret and sinister Nylander's camp did, Dubas is responding to Nylander's broken promise of taking a haircut so they can sign Tavares...I'm sure there are all manner of nefarious things Nylander's agents are doing in the dark. I, on the other hand, can only react to what I've got in front of me and Shanahan weighing in on this referencing his supposed selflessness in Detroit and not what he did in New Jersey rings that bell for me no matter what his objective or what Nylander may or may not have done.

I won't refer to you as "guy", because I'll be more respectful today, given the season opener and all, and we've been playing here for years.

But really Shanahan does have a lot of the information that we don't have, so I'm comfortable saying that Shanahan has a lot more to go off on...nothing nefarious, just more information.

Whatever your Dubas statement has to do with what I'm saying, I'm not sure.

And whatever was going on with the Devils and Shanahan's ability to get a deal done with them really may not have anything to do with what's going on today, no matter how many times you want to bring it up.  Maybe we can make comparisons later, if we get more information.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 03, 2018, 06:55:34 PM
But really Shanahan does have a lot of the information that we don't have, so I'm comfortable saying that Shanahan has a lot more to go off on...nothing nefarious, just more information.

Whatever your Dubas statement has to do with what I'm saying, I'm not sure.

And whatever was going on with the Devils and Shanahan's ability to get a deal done with them really may not have anything to do with what's going on today, no matter how many times you want to bring it up.  Maybe we can make comparisons later, if we get more information.

Again, my interest in this isn't tactical. I think you can weigh in on the ethics/morality/intellectual honesty of what someone involved in negotiations says without being overly concerned with the outcome of said negotiations.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 04, 2018, 08:35:22 AM

(https://memestatic.fjcdn.com/large/pictures/f6/d3/f6d311_6590098.jpg)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on October 04, 2018, 10:10:17 AM
So Shanahan didn't have a stellar 03-04. Then the lockout happened and the cap came in. He signs a lower contract because of: age, performance and a salary cap OR for the better good of the team?

He did go from $6.5M to under $3M and had a couple awesome seasons under the lower contract.
I should also note Shanahan won his cups during the pre-cap era and the "lower contract" I have identified was post-Stanley cups. So maybe he should ask the kids to take less post 3 Stanley Cups to actually relate to them.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 04, 2018, 10:30:13 AM
So Shanahan didn't have a stellar 03-04. Then the lockout happened and the cap came in. He signs a lower contract because of: age, performance and a salary cap OR for the better good of the team?

He did go from $6.5M to under $3M and had a couple awesome seasons under the lower contract.
I should also note Shanahan won his cups during the pre-cap era and the "lower contract" I have identified was post-Stanley cups. So maybe he should ask the kids to take less post 3 Stanley Cups to actually relate to them.

There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts. 

Many Golden State Warriors players have taken discounts as well (although they are in a soft cap situation, so its a bit different)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 04, 2018, 10:33:51 AM
So Shanahan didn't have a stellar 03-04. Then the lockout happened and the cap came in. He signs a lower contract because of: age, performance and a salary cap OR for the better good of the team?

He did go from $6.5M to under $3M and had a couple awesome seasons under the lower contract.
I should also note Shanahan won his cups during the pre-cap era and the "lower contract" I have identified was post-Stanley cups. So maybe he should ask the kids to take less post 3 Stanley Cups to actually relate to them.

When they won the Cup in 96/97, the Wings had 3 players in the top-12 of salaries (Fedorov, Yzerman, Shanahan). Shanny was making more money than Gretzky, Sakic, and Modano.

That offseason Fedorov signed a 6-year, $38mil offer sheet from the Hurricanes. Did the Wings tell Fedorov to buzz off, because he was being selfish and not being a team player? Nope. They matched the offer sheet and ended up paying Fedorov $28,000,000 IN THE FIRST YEAR OF THAT CONTRACT (seriously, read about that whole ordeal here (https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/sergei-fedorov-and-the-offer-sheet-that--cost--carolina-hurricanes-stanley-cup-230625970.html)).

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 04, 2018, 10:36:56 AM
There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts.

It's very well known though that their "discounts" were only able to happen because of Tampa's tax situation. They're still essentially getting paid market value after tax.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Dappleganger on October 04, 2018, 10:39:09 AM
So Shanahan didn't have a stellar 03-04. Then the lockout happened and the cap came in. He signs a lower contract because of: age, performance and a salary cap OR for the better good of the team?

He did go from $6.5M to under $3M and had a couple awesome seasons under the lower contract.
I should also note Shanahan won his cups during the pre-cap era and the "lower contract" I have identified was post-Stanley cups. So maybe he should ask the kids to take less post 3 Stanley Cups to actually relate to them.

There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts. 

Many Golden State Warriors players have taken discounts as well (although they are in a soft cap situation, so its a bit different)

I don't buy the NBA players taking less money. Taking $26m per year instead of $32m for a chance to win doesn't seem like much of a concession to me, even though it is millions of dollars. Take into consideration their $10m+ yearly shoe endorsements, NBA players can make in one year, what a fortunate NHL'er can make in a career.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 04, 2018, 10:51:06 AM
There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts.

It's very well known though that their "discounts" were only able to happen because of Tampa's tax situation. They're still essentially getting paid market value after tax.

I'm sure the teams in favourable tax states like to use that as an argument to take less, but if I'm an agent I'm asking for a NMC in return.  Only Stamkos got that.  Guys who took less on other teams (Ryan Ellis) didn't get them.

Kucherov only has a NMC for a few of those years- he could get traded and lose that tax advantage.   Again, you get into the same argument people are using to stick up for Nylander- that the sport is a business and taking one for the team may not be reciprocated.  Those guys still took one for the team.

Furthermore, do you think a player compares himself to the rest of the league based on their after tax salary?  Nope.  It might make some impact when weighing two offers as a UFA but I doubt it makes as big a deal as many think.

All three of those guys took less because they are on good teams and want to win.  I wouldn't have blamed them for asking for their maximum value- and I won't blame Nylander for doing the same.  They should look after themeselves.   As I said before, I just hope he (and Marner and Matthews) takes a bit of a discount.  They don't have to, but I hope they do.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 04, 2018, 10:53:11 AM
So Shanahan didn't have a stellar 03-04. Then the lockout happened and the cap came in. He signs a lower contract because of: age, performance and a salary cap OR for the better good of the team?

He did go from $6.5M to under $3M and had a couple awesome seasons under the lower contract.
I should also note Shanahan won his cups during the pre-cap era and the "lower contract" I have identified was post-Stanley cups. So maybe he should ask the kids to take less post 3 Stanley Cups to actually relate to them.

There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts. 

Many Golden State Warriors players have taken discounts as well (although they are in a soft cap situation, so its a bit different)

I don't buy the NBA players taking less money. Taking $26m per year instead of $32m for a chance to win doesn't seem like much of a concession to me, even though it is millions of dollars. Take into consideration their $10m+ yearly shoe endorsements, NBA players can make in one year, what a fortunate NHL'er can make in a career.

So Nylander taking 6.75M per year instead of 7.5M per year is the end of the world for him?  Those NBA players are making a 6M PER YEAR concession.  Nylander would be taking a 6M TOTAL concesssion.  And name the guys on 10M per year Shoe contracts.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on October 04, 2018, 10:53:49 AM
So Shanahan didn't have a stellar 03-04. Then the lockout happened and the cap came in. He signs a lower contract because of: age, performance and a salary cap OR for the better good of the team?

He did go from $6.5M to under $3M and had a couple awesome seasons under the lower contract.
I should also note Shanahan won his cups during the pre-cap era and the "lower contract" I have identified was post-Stanley cups. So maybe he should ask the kids to take less post 3 Stanley Cups to actually relate to them.

There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts. 

Many Golden State Warriors players have taken discounts as well (although they are in a soft cap situation, so its a bit different)

I don't buy the NBA players taking less money. Taking $26m per year instead of $32m for a chance to win doesn't seem like much of a concession to me, even though it is millions of dollars. Take into consideration their $10m+ yearly shoe endorsements, NBA players can make in one year, what a fortunate NHL'er can make in a career.
$6M is a lot of money and it goes a long way to bringing in support players. Less is less.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Dappleganger on October 04, 2018, 11:02:32 AM
There is no doubt that it was a bad analogy.  However, its not like there aren't cases that you can look to where it HAS happened.  Stamkos and Kucherov both took discounts.

It's very well known though that their "discounts" were only able to happen because of Tampa's tax situation. They're still essentially getting paid market value after tax.

I think this has been overstated a bit. A baseline for someone making $10m per year, the difference between a tax free state like Florida, and Michigan, which has a state tax, ends up being about $500k a year. Of course this changes from state to state, California would be about $1.4m less after state tax. (California is by far the worse)   

I think I'd rather go for Canada and take the current 30% bump in converting US to Canadian funds.  ;)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 04, 2018, 11:02:36 AM
And name the guys on 10M per year Shoe contracts.

Just shoe deals: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/06/09/the-nbas-biggest-shoe-deals/

All endorsements: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/02/17/the-2018-nba-all-stars-players-who-earn-the-most-from-endorsements/1

NBA players make a crap-ton more in endorsements than NHL players, not that that should be surprising.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 04, 2018, 11:10:26 AM
And name the guys on 10M per year Shoe contracts.

Just shoe deals: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/06/09/the-nbas-biggest-shoe-deals/

All endorsements: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/02/17/the-2018-nba-all-stars-players-who-earn-the-most-from-endorsements/1

NBA players make a crap-ton more in endorsements than NHL players, not that that should be surprising.

Exactly. A fair argument can be made that a NBA player taking less, even millionsless, to win is making a move that will benefit them financially in the long-term. There isn't that sort of endorsement money in hockey. Even 750k less over a max deal is likely to be 6 million that player never sees again, regardless of how many cups they win.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 04, 2018, 11:24:30 AM
Many Golden State Warriors players have taken discounts as well (although they are in a soft cap situation, so its a bit different)

I don't know about "many". Some of their players signed deals that were team friendly because they signed before the cap exploded or before they really came into their own as all-stars but Steph Curry just signed for the maximum. They certainly didn't use Durant's deal to get Curry to take a discount and Curry pretty clearly didn't feel obligated to do so.

Really the only guy to do what you're describing of any real significance is Kevin Durant and even there you're talking about a pretty massive difference. Durant signed with a team coming off a record setting season who'd just been to game 7 of the finals and had won a title in the previous year. The pitch to Durant wasn't "If you sign at a discount, we can build something great" but rather "We're already great, with you we can be greater".

The Leafs can't make that pitch to any of the guys they're trying to sign yet. Not just because they haven't achieved that level of success but because the future for the Leafs is far more uncertain. Even if the Leafs signed everyone at fairly team-friendly deals they'd still probably not be anyone's choice to come out of their own division, let alone be runaway favourites to win a title.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 04, 2018, 12:35:26 PM
This just in about Nylander:  Interview...

Original article link (translated below):
https://www.aftonbladet.se/a/6nRbqL (https://www.aftonbladet.se/a/6nRbqL)

Nylander remains in Stockholm: "Clearly you want to play"
William Nylander trains alone at LidingŲ


Tonight, Toronto Maple Leaf's home premiere against Montreal had 19,589 spectators in a packed Scotiabank Arena.

The NHL season is running.

A few hours later, the team's successive William Nylander trains alone in a deserted and pale plastic tent on LidingŲ.

"Obviously you are looking forward to playing," he says.

It's just him, skater coach Jocke Ahlgren and contractless 29-year-old Johan Lorraine on the ice, when William rubs on his first ice pass this day. So far from the glamor of NHL it's possible to come.
"But there is no danger. And I have to keep fit when everything is done, he says.
"I'm a professional athlete and just one product in general. The only thing I can check now is that I'm in the best possible form on the day everything gets settled.
And when will it be?
"Right now, I do not know more than all the rest of you. I have not received any message and have no contact with Toronto. It's my agent who takes care of everything.

Lose hundreds of thousands of kronor
The difference today is that wages began to be sent to NHL, where players have only paid during the 186 days the basic series is in progress.
According to hockey reporter Frank Seravalli on the Canadian TV channel TSN, William Nylander loses between 20,000 to 45,000 dollars a day as long as he is contractless. This corresponds to between 180,000 and 405,000 Swedish kronor a day, depending on the size of a future contract. Huge money for a 22 year old.
The Nylander  Counter is running. William Nylander loses anywhere from $ 20,000 to upwards or $ 45,000 a day f ... https://t.co/Dxvk2B3Oem (https://t.co/Dxvk2B3Oem)
The Nylander  Counter is running. William Nylander loses anywhere from $ 20,000 to upwards or $ 45,000 a day f ... https://t.co/Dxvk2B3Oem (https://t.co/Dxvk2B3Oem)
- Yes, it is clear that there is a lot of money, but in the end I have to take care of myself and do it myself and my agent thinks is right. Especially if it's about several years to come. I have to think long-term. It's my own future it's about.

William Nylander is sitting in the ice-cold plastic tent and replacing the replacement box. It's fast, because he's heading for the next training. A heavy physical pass.
In front of him stands the blue trunk he brought home from Toronto last spring, as a sign of where he still belongs and the club that owns his rights. And he is training in a white Toronto shirt.

Did you see the premiere of Montreal?
- No, but I saw highlights from the match in the morning. These were great goals. I want to play, but now it's the way it is. But I want to stay in Toronto.

Toronto Stanley Cup favorites
It's understandable with the effort the big club made in recent years. Many experts see Maple Leafs as favorite to the Stanley Cup title this season in a team of stars and with coach Mike Babcock in the booth. That would be the first time in 51 years. Last Toronto won the Stanley Cup in 1967 and the whole town would explode if it happened again.
"But they miss a star," says ice trainer Jocke Ahlgren, when he and William wander away from their parked cars to go to the day's physical pass.
Yes, William can only wait right now, but he has read about other Swedes who have been in the same situation and have been waiting for their new contract a good deal in the season.
"Yes, both Rickard Rakell and Hampus Lindholm were in the same position this year. I do not know exactly how long they should wait.
That time it lasted until October 14th before fresh World Championship hero Rickard Rakell crossed a new six-year contract with Anaheim Ducks.
Back Hampus Lindholm had to wait until October 27, before his new six-year contract with the same Anaheim became clear. In both cases two years ago.
Now we are writing on October 4th and William Nylander hopes for the same happy end.
Otherwise, then? Can there be games in Europe while you wait?
"I have not thought about it, but at the moment, I only have the focus to keep me prepared on the day everything gets clear. I just drive on and let's see what's happening.
[/i]

Original story link:
https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2018/10/04/i-have-to-take-care-of-myself-nylander-opens-up-as-contract-impasse-with-maple-leafs-continues.html (https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2018/10/04/i-have-to-take-care-of-myself-nylander-opens-up-as-contract-impasse-with-maple-leafs-continues.html)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 04, 2018, 12:43:59 PM
It'll have to come down to Nylander telling his agent to sign a deal. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 04, 2018, 01:01:22 PM

I really appreciate that anytime Dreger or Friedman talk about these negotiations they always add at the end: "but remember, we don't actually know what we're talking about here".
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 04, 2018, 01:03:25 PM

I really appreciate that anytime Dreger or Friedman talk about these negotiations they always add at the end: "but remember, we don't actually know what we're talking about here".

*I'd* sure like to get paid for talking out of my ass.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 04, 2018, 01:07:07 PM
Also at this point it's pretty safe to assume that if anything DOES start getting leaked to the media, it's coming from the Leafs camp to put pressure on Nylander.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Kaberle15 on October 04, 2018, 01:16:02 PM
It'll have to come down to Nylander telling his agent to sign a deal.

I remember that long time ago, when Kaberle's 1st contract was up, he held out, started to play in the Czech Republic until he called his agent and told him to get it done. Was about 20 days or so after the season started.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 04, 2018, 01:30:05 PM
It'll have to come down to Nylander telling his agent to sign a deal.

I remember that long time ago, when Kaberle's 1st contract was up, he held out, started to play in the Czech Republic until he called his agent and told him to get it done. Was about 20 days or so after the season started.

I mean it's all about the individual and how he feels.  If that article is accurate, and I realize it's translated from Swedish so maybe some is lost in translation, it sounds like everything is being handled by the agent and Nylander is simply following whatever the agent tells him.  Ultimately the agent works for Nylander, so Willy can tell the guy to just sign a deal because he wants to play, but whether it gets to that point is anybody's guess.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bender on October 04, 2018, 01:41:48 PM
Has anyone said what they think is fair for Willy? Looking at Cap Friendly as much as I wouldn't want Willy making Draisaitl money (Draisaitl I think is just bigger and better overall, better point totals etc.) than Willy, there are plenty of worse players in the 7-7.5M range that are definitely worse than he is. Bobby Ryan? Mark Stone? David Krejci? Evander Kane? I have to think Nylander is better than those guys.... Maybe 7.5M does it?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 04, 2018, 01:43:20 PM
Has anyone said what they think is fair for Willy? Looking at Cap Friendly as much as I wouldn't want Willy making Draisaitl money (Draisaitl I think is just bigger and better overall, better point totals etc.) than Willy, there are plenty of worse players in the 7-7.5M range that are definitely worse than he is. Bobby Ryan? Mark Stone? David Krejci? Evander Kane? I have to think Nylander is better than those guys.... Maybe 7.5M does it?

I think the absolute highest the Leafs can afford for Nylander (assuming the rest of the roster beyond the big 4 aren't budget players) would be $7M.  Leafs are probably trying to get him at $6.5 as each and every 100k is gonna count.

Let's say for argument sake:
Matthews : 12
Tavares: 11
Marner: 8
Nylander : 7
-----------------------
that's $38M on 4 players. 

Let's assume cap next season is $82M, you have $44M left for 19 players, or an average of $2.31M, that ain't gonna work especially when you already have Marleau at 6.25, Andersen at $5, Rielly at $5, Kadri at 4.5 and Zaitsev at 4.5.  Doesn't leave alot of money for anyone else on the roster.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 04, 2018, 01:48:28 PM
And name the guys on 10M per year Shoe contracts.

Just shoe deals: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2017/06/09/the-nbas-biggest-shoe-deals/

All endorsements: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kurtbadenhausen/2018/02/17/the-2018-nba-all-stars-players-who-earn-the-most-from-endorsements/1

NBA players make a crap-ton more in endorsements than NHL players, not that that should be surprising.

Exactly. A fair argument can be made that a NBA player taking less, even millionsless, to win is making a move that will benefit them financially in the long-term. There isn't that sort of endorsement money in hockey. Even 750k less over a max deal is likely to be 6 million that player never sees again, regardless of how many cups they win.

Unfortunately, I was unaware of the amount of money the top tier of NBA stars pull in in shoe deals.  So sue me.  However, I don't think an NBA star is thinking "why not take less money help my team bring in more help" and saying to themeselves "i'll make it up in endorsement money".  No, they are getting that endorsement money anyways because they are the superstars of the NBA.  You can argue what is the difference to those guys between 26M and 32M per year.  Its already a ton of money.  I don't see why a 54M vs 60M contract (8 yrs) isn't the same argument.  ITS STILL A SHIT TON OF MONEY.

Nowhere did I state they (Leafs young "leaders") could make it up in endorsement money either.  I do see others making that argument, but I'm not one of them.

Again, I'm not HOPING Nylander takes a huge discount (like half his expected salary).  I'm hoping he takes 10% less of a SHIT TON OF MONEY.  Tavares already took a 20% discount compared to his other offers, and just because he did doesn't mean Nylander, Matthews, and Marner need to as well, but I'm hoping they take a bit of a haircut.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 04, 2018, 02:11:11 PM
However, I don't think an NBA star is thinking "why not take less money help my team bring in more help" and saying to themeselves "i'll make it up in endorsement money".  No, they are getting that endorsement money anyways because they are the superstars of the NBA.

I think you're underestimating the extent to which these guys are savvy about their branding. I've read a few things about how even a player as great as LeBron, for instance, didn't have a lot of international appeal as a spokesman until he took less money for himself and went to the Heat where he started to win championships. After that, Nike started using him in markets like Europe and Asia where the "Sure, he hasn't won any titles but he's really good" thing doesn't have a lot of appeal. It's why on that list guys like Jordan and Kobe Bryant are still doing very well. 

They'll dress it up in language about competitiveness because they're good marketers of themselves but I think Win Title then Higher Presence then More Endorsement Money is absolutely part of the equation for these guys. You see it then with guys like Curry and Lebron where after they've already won a bunch of titles, then they go and get max level deals for themselves.

You can argue what is the difference to those guys between 26M and 32M per year.  Its already a ton of money.  I don't see why a 54M vs 60M contract (8 yrs) isn't the same argument.  ITS STILL A SHIT TON OF MONEY.

Except that's not the argument I'm making. It's not Durant is ok with 26 instead of 32 because it's a lot of money anyways, it's that Durant probably thinks that with multiple titles under his belt he'll end up making more at 26 than he ultimately would with a max deal somewhere he's less likely to win. There's a reason Nike had a Durant shoe commercial ready to air the second he won a title. 

You're the one who brought basketball players into the discussion but I don't think that really lends much to your argument. Leaving aside the very different situations virtually every other team in sports is in vs. the Warriors, I don't think it's actually true that a bunch of guys took team friendly deals there. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: disco on October 04, 2018, 03:34:47 PM
I'm glad Kyle and co. are sticking to their cap plan. If you want to be well compensated but not quite maxed out (what you'd get on the open market) in favor of being surrounded MULTIPLE OTHER superstars in perpetual contention for Stanley Cups over the next decade, then sign. If you you're agent feels you need to be MAXED out over all else, then you can't be on a team with THREE other superstars, not with the cap. It's not about "hometown discount" or "playing the emotional card". It's the simple reality of playing on a perpetual contender in a cap league.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 04, 2018, 03:39:05 PM
Has anyone said what they think is fair for Willy? Looking at Cap Friendly as much as I wouldn't want Willy making Draisaitl money (Draisaitl I think is just bigger and better overall, better point totals etc.) than Willy, there are plenty of worse players in the 7-7.5M range that are definitely worse than he is. Bobby Ryan? Mark Stone? David Krejci? Evander Kane? I have to think Nylander is better than those guys.... Maybe 7.5M does it?

So you have Connor Brown and Zack Hyman locked in as well.  That gives you 12 players to sign and 20 million to do it with.  Nathan Horton can be used for a 5

I think the absolute highest the Leafs can afford for Nylander (assuming the rest of the roster beyond the big 4 aren't budget players) would be $7M.  Leafs are probably trying to get him at $6.5 as each and every 100k is gonna count.

Let's say for argument sake:
Matthews : 12
Tavares: 11
Marner: 8
Nylander : 7
-----------------------
that's $38M on 4 players. 

Let's assume cap next season is $82M, you have $44M left for 19 players, or an average of $2.31M, that ain't gonna work especially when you already have Marleau at 6.25, Andersen at $5, Rielly at $5, Kadri at 4.5 and Zaitsev at 4.5.  Doesn't leave alot of money for anyone else on the roster.

I think the position in the lineup is important to look at though. The following people are also signed for next year:

Travis Dermott - 863,333
Zack Hyman - 2.25 Million
Connor Brown - 2.1 Million

So if you think about it, that's your top 8 forwards accounted for and 3 of your defencemen and your starting goalie.  So doing all that math you have 12 players locked up at 63.46 million.  So you have about 19 mill to sign 11 players, which is 1.72 million per player.  So that is you bottom 4 forwards, three defencemen and a backup goalie.  Also you have the 5 million of Nathan Horton for LTIR.

If you can get your 4th line plus reserve forward, bottom pairing D-men plus extra d and backup goalie for  1 million or less, you are now looking at 8 players that take up 8 million of that remaining 19 million, give or take.  So now you are at 3 players to sign for 11 million, and the guy who is going to be the hardest in that group is going to be Jake Gardiner, and that's if you want to keep him.  I even think there is some wiggle room to give the big 3 a little more money than what you have listed.   

They just have to get through next year, and they gotta hope that guys like Grundstrom can fill out roles on entry level contracts, but I don't think having the 4 superstars making a lot of money is really all that bad for the team, considering the Leafs have pretty much said this is the plan for winning a cup for them. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 04, 2018, 03:43:03 PM
I'm glad Kyle and co. are sticking to their cap plan. If you want to be well compensated but not quite maxed out (what you'd get on the open market) in favor of being surrounded MULTIPLE OTHER superstars in perpetual contention for Stanley Cups over the next decade, then sign. If you you're agent feels you need to be MAXED out over all else, then you can't be on a team with THREE other superstars, not with the cap. It's not about "hometown discount" or "playing the emotional card". It's the simple reality of playing on a perpetual contender in a cap league.

I don't think Nylander maxed out is the end of keeping all 4 of them.  Even if they all max out you have Matthews at 12.5M (Connor), Nylander at 8.5M, Marner at 9.5M (Kucherov), and Tavares at 11M its still possible to fill a roster.  The problem is, you can't keep guys like Hyman/Brown/Kapanen etc beyond their ELC's.  Essentially, until the cap goes up significantly you have to cycle out guys on their 2nd contracts for cheap ELC's or reclaimation projects like Ennis. 

And the thing is... the team would probably still be very good.  If the drafting goes well, they'd still remain cup contenders.  It just becomes harder to achieve it.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 04, 2018, 06:39:41 PM
Has anyone said what they think is fair for Willy? Looking at Cap Friendly as much as I wouldn't want Willy making Draisaitl money (Draisaitl I think is just bigger and better overall, better point totals etc.) than Willy, there are plenty of worse players in the 7-7.5M range that are definitely worse than he is. Bobby Ryan? Mark Stone? David Krejci? Evander Kane? I have to think Nylander is better than those guys.... Maybe 7.5M does it?

So you have Connor Brown and Zack Hyman locked in as well.  That gives you 12 players to sign and 20 million to do it with.  Nathan Horton can be used for a 5

I think the absolute highest the Leafs can afford for Nylander (assuming the rest of the roster beyond the big 4 aren't budget players) would be $7M.  Leafs are probably trying to get him at $6.5 as each and every 100k is gonna count.

Let's say for argument sake:
Matthews : 12
Tavares: 11
Marner: 8
Nylander : 7
-----------------------
that's $38M on 4 players. 

Let's assume cap next season is $82M, you have $44M left for 19 players, or an average of $2.31M, that ain't gonna work especially when you already have Marleau at 6.25, Andersen at $5, Rielly at $5, Kadri at 4.5 and Zaitsev at 4.5.  Doesn't leave alot of money for anyone else on the roster.

I think the position in the lineup is important to look at though. The following people are also signed for next year:

Travis Dermott - 863,333
Zack Hyman - 2.25 Million
Connor Brown - 2.1 Million

So if you think about it, that's your top 8 forwards accounted for and 3 of your defencemen and your starting goalie.  So doing all that math you have 12 players locked up at 63.46 million.  So you have about 19 mill to sign 11 players, which is 1.72 million per player.  So that is you bottom 4 forwards, three defencemen and a backup goalie.  Also you have the 5 million of Nathan Horton for LTIR.

If you can get your 4th line plus reserve forward, bottom pairing D-men plus extra d and backup goalie for  1 million or less, you are now looking at 8 players that take up 8 million of that remaining 19 million, give or take.  So now you are at 3 players to sign for 11 million, and the guy who is going to be the hardest in that group is going to be Jake Gardiner, and that's if you want to keep him.  I even think there is some wiggle room to give the big 3 a little more money than what you have listed.   

They just have to get through next year, and they gotta hope that guys like Grundstrom can fill out roles on entry level contracts, but I don't think having the 4 superstars making a lot of money is really all that bad for the team, considering the Leafs have pretty much said this is the plan for winning a cup for them.
Yeah there are ways to do it, hell you can pay Matthews, Marner and Nylander each $12.5M a year and still have a team, but the bottom part of the roster is going to be all ELC or league minimum guys after you factor in Andersen, Kadri, Rielly and Marleau
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on October 04, 2018, 06:40:55 PM
Guys, I'm just asking this, but is there any walking back from this now?  It really seems like at the very least it is doing long term damage to the relationship between the player and the team.  Just listening to Shanahan's comments yesterday, he was not happy.  I'm guessing Nylander is not happy either.  It sounds like in a lot of these cases the player winds up traded or else signing for much less money with another team.

What about signing him and then trading him?  I guess that still hinges on signing him for a reasonable amount, and if they do, it begs the question of why not use him themselves (the Leafs' offense is completely killer if they have Nylander).
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bender on October 04, 2018, 07:10:32 PM
If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.

I just mean that business is business, players hold out, teams hold out. That's the nature of the beast. A deal will get done eventually.

Sent from my SM-G965W using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 04, 2018, 07:29:44 PM
If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.

I just mean that business is business, players hold out, teams hold out. That's the nature of the beast. A deal will get done eventually.

Sent from my SM-G965W using Tapatalk


Exactly. This isn't arbitration where all the bashing comes out. Just business. Both want the same result just different numbers.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Highlander on October 04, 2018, 07:30:55 PM
Guys, I'm just asking this, but is there any walking back from this now?  It really seems like at the very least it is doing long term damage to the relationship between the player and the team.  Just listening to Shanahan's comments yesterday, he was not happy.  I'm guessing Nylander is not happy either.  It sounds like in a lot of these cases the player winds up traded or else signing for much less money with another team.

What about signing him and then trading him?  I guess that still hinges on signing him for a reasonable amount, and if they do, it begs the question of why not use him themselves (the Leafs' offense is completely killer if they have Nylander).

Shanahan was the man with the vision and the plan, brought in the components to work his plan and trust Dubas, after some Lou mentoring to put it all in place. Building a image of returning the Leafs to there long lost glory and asking the players to buy into this and take one for the team to some extent.
Hey I understand the flip side to this coin perfectly, why not capitalize on your short career with as many dollars as you can, you have that right.  I think that 7.25 will get this done without selling the farm.  This way you compromise, you get a huge amount of money and work the Shanahan vision, which we as fans all share. 
Right now it seems Nylander is bit mercenary and that is leaving a lot of fans with a bad taste in their mouths.
Best to work a deal asap that both sides can live with.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 04, 2018, 08:13:04 PM
ight now it seems Nylander is bit mercenary and that is leaving a lot of fans with a bad taste in their mouths.

Those fans should probably grow up.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 04, 2018, 08:25:50 PM
Read up on the Gaudreau contract from 2 years ago. On October 2nd they interviewed his agent (same as Nylander's agent) and this write up was interesting:

"The day before the Sept. 9 conversation, The Calgary Sunís Eric Francis reported Gaudreau asked for a contract ďin the $8-million range,Ē while the Flames wanted him somewhere between Sean Monahan ($6.375-million annual average value) and Mark Giordano($6.75-million AAV)."

So Gaudreau was also asking for $8M, and then on October 10th signed for $6.75 (although he signed right before the season started)
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 04, 2018, 09:01:24 PM
ight now it seems Nylander is bit mercenary and that is leaving a lot of fans with a bad taste in their mouths.

Those fans should probably grow up.
Absolutely. Nylander is doing nothing wrong and neither are the Leafs. It will work out in the end. Fans need to chill.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on October 04, 2018, 09:08:40 PM
Read up on the Gaudreau contract from 2 years ago. On October 2nd they interviewed his agent (same as Nylander's agent) and this write up was interesting:

"The day before the Sept. 9 conversation, The Calgary Sunís Eric Francis reported Gaudreau asked for a contract ďin the $8-million range,Ē while the Flames wanted him somewhere between Sean Monahan ($6.375-million annual average value) and Mark Giordano($6.75-million AAV)."

So Gaudreau was also asking for $8M, and then on October 10th signed for $6.75 (although he signed right before the season started)
Thanks for that.  An ending like that would probably be good for both sides.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 04, 2018, 10:03:56 PM
On October 10th, 2016 Rickard Rakell's agent said "we are not looking at things the same way" when discussing contract talks between Rakell and Anaheim. Four days later they signed a 6-year contract and now he's one of their core players still 2 years later.

That same October it took the Ducks and defenceman Hampus Lindholm all the way up to October 27th for the two sides to agree to a 6-year contract, and again two years later he's still a core player there.

Again, it definitely sucks that all this is happening. No one would said it's ideal. But at this point there's no reason to think that this will cause any long-term issues between Nylander and the Leafs. If we're getting closer to the December 1st RFA deadline and there still isn't a deal done then I think we can start to doubt Nylander will be a Leaf long-term.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 04, 2018, 10:21:27 PM
In a way, it's amazing how quickly the narrative from Leaf fans has come from "we have no talent and we suck" to "it sucks we have to pay for so much talent".

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on October 04, 2018, 10:55:09 PM
If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.
.

Unfortunately, there are many idiots in this world and one has to deal with them.

Im surprised Shanny made the comments he did.  Im not sure how they help. A typical response to a show of force and being told what to do is to have the other side dig their heels in.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 05, 2018, 06:57:28 AM
If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.
.

Unfortunately, there are many idiots in this world and one has to deal with them.

Im surprised Shanny made the comments he did.  Im not sure how they help. A typical response to a show of force and being told what to do is to have the other side dig their heels in.
Strategy.  I assume the contract talks have been between Dubas (with Pridham/Gilman) and the agent. Maybe the agent is hoping there was pressure from above to get a deal done. Shanahan's comments tell the agent the Leafs are steadfast in their strategy and he won't put pressure on the GM to get a deal done at any cost
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Rob on October 05, 2018, 08:34:18 AM
If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.
.

Unfortunately, there are many idiots in this world and one has to deal with them.

Im surprised Shanny made the comments he did.  Im not sure how they help. A typical response to a show of force and being told what to do is to have the other side dig their heels in.
Strategy.  I assume the contract talks have been between Dubas (with Pridham/Gilman) and the agent. Maybe the agent is hoping there was pressure from above to get a deal done. Shanahan's comments tell the agent the Leafs are steadfast in their strategy and he won't put pressure on the GM to get a deal done at any cost

I'm sure part of the agents strategy is to take advantage of Dubas being a rookie GM, and quite a young one at that, and to make him sweat.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Average Joes on October 05, 2018, 09:24:51 AM
Part of me wonders if a little of what is going on is the agent not wanting to be perceived as caving as he apparently did with Gaudreau. Having such a reputation can have a negative impact in future negotiations.

If the reports are true that Nylander's agent is stuck at $8 million I have to wonder whose turn it is to make the next offer. If it is Nylander's it is usually pretty unreasonable to stick at your number unless you found the leafs offer nearly insulting. The exception is usually that you are hell bent on staying put. Although there are also people that stay near their initial ask then come down significantly. I find that a bad way to negotiate and it drags things out unnecessarily. At least this is my experience from settling a ton of litigation claims. A different game of course than what we have here but I see similarities.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: IJustLurkHere on October 05, 2018, 10:18:14 AM
...

If the reports are true that Nylander's agent is stuck at $8 million I have to wonder whose turn it is to make the next offer. If it is Nylander's it is usually pretty unreasonable to stick at your number unless you found the leafs offer nearly insulting.

...

So, Iím not sure how people believe contract negotiations work, but No negotiation Iíve ever heard works by a TV like scripted process where 6 turns to 8 turns to 6.5 turns to 7.5 turns to 7 and everyone shakes hands...

While there seems to be a view that the Leafs wanted 6ish (whether 6, 6.5 etc) you have to think if Nylander would accept sub 7, this thing would be done. Equally, with the reports of Nylander wanting 8+, you have to think if that were in the Leafs range, this would be done. Thatís without considering term.

That doesnít mean they settle at 7.5 and move on. It likely means they have to agree a common starting point, fit it to a term and agree on a number. When those variables are considered, term is possibly the hardest one. If they want to go 8 years, then Draisaitl canít be that surprising a comparison... and if they donít want to bridge without bringing him to FA age, thereís a common ground which needs to be sought there too.

By the time something like this rolls into the regular season, thereís a fair bet the sides havenít found their agreed common ground to negotiate from. One side or other needs to accept that William Nylander means more/less to the team than agreed so far...

One more ďofferĒ wonít be the holdup.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Hobbes on October 05, 2018, 10:49:47 AM
...It likely means they have to agree a common starting point, fit it to a term and agree on a number. When those variables are considered, term is possibly the hardest one. If they want to go 8 years, then Draisaitl canít be that surprising a comparison... and if they donít want to bridge without bringing him to FA age, thereís a common ground which needs to be sought there too.

By the time something like this rolls into the regular season, thereís a fair bet the sides havenít found their agreed common ground to negotiate from. One side or other needs to accept that William Nylander means more/less to the team than agreed so far...

One more ďofferĒ wonít be the holdup.
Also add in whether the UFA years of that include NTC (and whether it is limited) or NMC, what the structure of payments is (heavy on bonus to protect Nylander against a 2020 lockout year), etc...
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Average Joes on October 05, 2018, 11:12:25 AM

So, Iím not sure how people believe contract negotiations work, but No negotiation Iíve ever heard works by a TV like scripted process where 6 turns to 8 turns to 6.5 turns to 7.5 turns to 7 and everyone shakes hands...


By no means the perfect meet down the middle but there is usually give and take with each offer.  Sometimes it doesn't work that way of course.  I have never negotiated a sports contract. I have negotiated employment contracts for clients but not many.  Most of my experience is negotiating a ton of litigation claims.

What I fear is if Nylander's side won't budge from $8 million if Toronto came up on their offer. That tends to drag things out on negotiations from my experience and upsets the side that came up. This is with the view that in the $6s seems to be where more of the comparable contracts are at. Not that we have any idea what is actually going on.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 05, 2018, 11:51:48 AM
If this creates animosity between all parties then all parties are idiots.
.

Unfortunately, there are many idiots in this world and one has to deal with them.

Im surprised Shanny made the comments he did.  Im not sure how they help. A typical response to a show of force and being told what to do is to have the other side dig their heels in.
Strategy.  I assume the contract talks have been between Dubas (with Pridham/Gilman) and the agent. Maybe the agent is hoping there was pressure from above to get a deal done. Shanahan's comments tell the agent the Leafs are steadfast in their strategy and he won't put pressure on the GM to get a deal done at any cost

I'm sure part of the agents strategy is to take advantage of Dubas being a rookie GM, and quite a young one at that, and to make him sweat.

I have no doubt that's what the agent is hoping.  This is Dubas's first kick at the can and they hope he blinks. Shanahan coming out with his comments put an end to that.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Highlander on October 05, 2018, 11:56:18 AM
ight now it seems Nylander is bit mercenary and that is leaving a lot of fans with a bad taste in their mouths.

Those fans should probably grow up.

I think I grew up after having a son and living through 8 hurricanes and losing everything three times. And rebuilding everything each time.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on October 05, 2018, 11:59:47 AM
TSN posted today that they have a source telling them that Nylander still has not budged off his $8 million figure.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Highlander on October 05, 2018, 12:00:48 PM
ight now it seems Nylander is bit mercenary and that is leaving a lot of fans with a bad taste in their mouths.

Those fans should probably grow up.
Absolutely. Nylander is doing nothing wrong and neither are the Leafs. It will work out in the end. Fans need to chill.
I never said he was doing anything wrong, he has that right, you either buy in or you don't, no judgement at all. Can't blame anyone for trying to max their income at all.

I am just old school and remember when most hockey players sold cars or insurance or started a side business to make a living during the summer, or Bobby Baun playing on a broken ankle to score the winner.  Things and time change.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: cabber24 on October 05, 2018, 12:33:35 PM
TSN posted today that they have a source telling them that Nylander still has not budged off his $8 million figure.
I doubt they know anything.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Strangelove on October 05, 2018, 12:56:51 PM
TSN posted today that they have a source telling them that Nylander still has not budged off his $8 million figure.
I doubt they know anything.

Why? At some point Nylander will start to face reputational risks (whether or not justified), and leaking this kind of info is a pretty good way to ratchet up the pressure in that respect.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Dappleganger on October 05, 2018, 01:12:18 PM
I don't like Draisaitl as a comparison for Willy. Would anyone on this board take Nylander over Draisaitl at the same cap number?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: AvroArrow on October 05, 2018, 01:55:45 PM
Assuming the Leafs have told teams they're not trading Nylander (which was rumoured to be what they told the Canes), at what point do the Leafs start serious trade negotiations with other teams regarding Nylander?

Do they ride it out to November, December, the new year?

If, for instance, they wait until the new year, there's always the chance they don't complete a trade before the trade deadline (since trades take time).
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 05, 2018, 02:04:38 PM
I am just old school and remember when most hockey players sold cars or insurance or started a side business to make a living during the summer, or Bobby Baun playing on a broken ankle to score the winner.  Things and time change.

Yeah, those guys didn't actually like that situation. It's why guys like Ted Lindsay fought so hard to change things.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on October 05, 2018, 02:05:32 PM
Perhaps this has already been posted, but from the Toronto Star:

Quote
Now, the rules around restricted free agency were different then. But make no mistake. At age 22, precisely Nylanderís age, Shanahan looked out for Shanahan. He became the seventh-highest-paid player in the NHL, earning more in his first year in St. Louis than Mark Messier would earn winning the Hart Trophy for the New York Rangers. And as for pursuing the Stanley Cup? Partly as a result of the price St. Louis paid to acquire Shanahan ó which included captain Scott Stevens in a controversial compensation award ó the Blues lost in the first round of the playoffs in three of Shanahanís four seasons in St. Louis. They never made it past the second round. In other words, Shanahanís priority in his youth was building his fortune, not his legend.

Shanahanís comments are a mistake.  It is unethical for him to twist the truth. Also, it simply seems to be a strategic mistake to argue any player should take less than they are worth.  That would seem unfair to me if I were a player.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 05, 2018, 06:09:52 PM
Shanahanís comments are a mistake.

Yeah, maybe he came on a bit strong in that department. If he had just said something along the lines that "there's benefits other than money to be part of a strong franchise, and we hope our RFAs buy into that" and kind of left it there, it would have been more palatable.

Ultimately, I think the reason he spoke out was because he wanted everyone to know (players and agents included) that the whole management team was firmly behind the GM.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on October 05, 2018, 06:23:06 PM
Shanahanís comments are a mistake.

Yeah, maybe he came on a bit strong in that department. If he had just said something along the lines that "there's benefits other than money to be part of a strong franchise, and we hope our RFAs buy into that" and kind of left it there, it would have been more palatable.

Ultimately, I think the reason he spoke out was because he wanted everyone to know (players and agents included) that the whole management team was firmly behind the GM.

If he wanted to support Dubas (doing so certainly makes a lot of sense), then he could do that directly by saying that he believes the contract offered Nylander is fair.  It seems to me, he has unnecessarily ceded this key argument ó he has said the contract offered is unfair but nylander has to take it anyway.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: L K on October 05, 2018, 06:26:13 PM
The other disingenuous comment from shanny was that Detroit was blatantly overpaying for guys because there was no cap.   His boasting was garbage.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on October 05, 2018, 08:54:37 PM
Assuming the Leafs have told teams they're not trading Nylander (which was rumoured to be what they told the Canes), at what point do the Leafs start serious trade negotiations with other teams regarding Nylander?

Do they ride it out to November, December, the new year?

If, for instance, they wait until the new year, there's always the chance they don't complete a trade before the trade deadline (since trades take time).
How does that work?  Let's say they trade him to Carolina.  I'm guessing Carolina would work out a deal with Nylander prior to making the trade?

I actually think this type of deal could be a win-win situation.  As much as I really like Nylander, he does block guys like Leivo from the lineup who, while clearly not even in the same ballpark, they could turn out to be useful players and contribute to the team.  It could also solve the Leafs' salary cap problem.  They are going to need to start churning guys and replenishing them with picks.  As sad as it is to say, it could make sense for the team to take a more low-end defenseman and some picks in exchange for Nylander.  I guess the big issue with that is that it kind of takes the wind out of the sails for this season when the Leafs are cup favorites.  That is the true leverage that Nylander has right now.  He puts the team over the top.  Without him there are several other teams that are as good if not better.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on October 05, 2018, 08:56:51 PM
Assuming the Leafs have told teams they're not trading Nylander (which was rumoured to be what they told the Canes), at what point do the Leafs start serious trade negotiations with other teams regarding Nylander?

Do they ride it out to November, December, the new year?

If, for instance, they wait until the new year, there's always the chance they don't complete a trade before the trade deadline (since trades take time).

If unsigned by December 1, Nylander would be ineligible to play for the season.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 06, 2018, 07:54:09 AM
The longer the Leafs take, the better (in a way) for Nylander:

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Basically, as Herman pointed out, if Nylander isn't signed by Dec. 1st, it would render him ineligible to suit up for the rest of the season.  But, the longer it is taking for the Leafs to sign him, the better for Nylander, and the worse for the Leafs.

The money Nylander loses will need to be made up to him:
Quote
...when a deal is finally concluded Ė say itís $7.5-million for seven years, the AAV is going to have to be bumped up to make him whole for the salary heís not collecting at the moment. Take that $7.5-million and make it $7.85-million.

If it's to be believed that the Nylander camp is asking in the $8.5M+ "Draisaitl" range, and the Leafs have been reportedly offering in the $6-7M:
Quote
Call it a two million dollar difference per year for the sake of discussion. If this is a six to eight year contract, the dispute is over something between $12-million and $16-million.
...Toronto will give you an AAV of $6.5-million on Dec. 1...youíre basically risking $2-million or so for a potential payoff of between $12-million and $16-million. Even though Nylander might be light on leverage at the moment, itís pretty easy to see why heíd be willing to wait. Call it an investment of $2-million or so with a potentially very high rate of return.

A real nightmare for Dubas & co., would be when the other Big Two contracts are up -- Matthews & Marner next summer, and they both pull a Nylander (with Nylander remaining unsigned).
No, don't even think about it Toronto fans, but let's be realistic here.  Considering the situation with Nylander, if he does not  get signed, then, as explained above, he will have had leverage and perhaps so will Matthews & Marner see it the same way.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: AvroArrow on October 06, 2018, 10:31:13 AM
Assuming the Leafs have told teams they're not trading Nylander (which was rumoured to be what they told the Canes), at what point do the Leafs start serious trade negotiations with other teams regarding Nylander?

Do they ride it out to November, December, the new year?

If, for instance, they wait until the new year, there's always the chance they don't complete a trade before the trade deadline (since trades take time).

If unsigned by December 1, Nylander would be ineligible to play for the season.

Ah, yes, a good point I had forgotten about.  So it seems the Leafs have a December 1st deadline to decide what to do if he continues to remain unsigned.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 06, 2018, 10:51:28 AM
Listening to everyone from Ray Ferraro to Bobby Mac, Nylander's only leverage comes if the Leafs struggle. He has no power here. Every "expert" says he's not worth 7 million a year so if he doesn't come down in the ask, the Leafs can simply let him sit. If he sits the year you honestly think the Leafs will magically come up to his ask? He will never make up the lost money if he does that. As for Marner and Matthews, Marner may be a bit of a struggle but Matthews won't. He's getting paid because he's their best player.
If every player needed to be signed where would Nylander fit in order of importance? He's 5th or later in my books so while important, he's not a must sign guy.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bullfrog on October 06, 2018, 11:42:17 AM
How is he not worth $7M?

Though I understand everyone's human, I'm skeptical about how much the Leafs current performance has on any negotiations.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 06, 2018, 11:43:26 AM
How is he not worth $7M?

Though I understand everyone's human, I'm skeptical about how much the Leafs current performance has on any negotiations.
If Leafs wait until after October 15th they can give him 7x7 and the cap hit for subsequent years is lower than 7
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: herman on October 06, 2018, 11:52:20 AM
How is he not worth $7M?

Though I understand everyone's human, I'm skeptical about how much the Leafs current performance has on any negotiations.
If Leafs wait until after October 15th they can give him 7x7 and the cap hit for subsequent years is lower than 7

I wouldíve 8x8d him but I understand we are trying to establish a program of salary tiers for a bumper crop of elite youth.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Highlander on October 06, 2018, 11:54:34 AM
I am just old school and remember when most hockey players sold cars or insurance or started a side business to make a living during the summer, or Bobby Baun playing on a broken ankle to score the winner.  Things and time change.

Yeah, those guys didn't actually like that situation. It's why guys like Ted Lindsay fought so hard to change things.
And its great that he did
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: disco on October 06, 2018, 01:37:16 PM
It's a little bit of a tough reality that Willy is 4th on the superstar depth chart and a winger and he's going first of the Big-3. I was thinking the other day about Jonathan Drouin and the Bolts. He later said sitting out was a mistake by him. He later got a good contract but he's playing for the Montreal Canadiens.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 01:40:46 PM
How is he not worth $7M?

Though I understand everyone's human, I'm skeptical about how much the Leafs current performance has on any negotiations.
If Leafs wait until after October 15th they can give him 7x7 and the cap hit for subsequent years is lower than 7

I think that would be the best scenario for all. Nylander gets a contract starting with a 7, which in all honesty I don't think dubas is really that far from anyway (or should be), the leafs get a cap hit starting with a 6, everyone saves face, Herman can stop playing the Smiths and staring at Nylander posters in his room, and we get back to the on-ice product.

And mgt works on a Marner 8M and Matthews at 12M in-season.

There, we solved all of the issues. No payment needed from Leafs, just set the board here in the alumni suite for the first home game with Nylander in the lineup.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 06, 2018, 01:50:34 PM
The money Nylander loses will need to be made up to him:
Quote
...when a deal is finally concluded Ė say itís $7.5-million for seven years, the AAV is going to have to be bumped up to make him whole for the salary heís not collecting at the moment. Take that $7.5-million and make it $7.85-million.

I like Dellow, but, uh, this is dumb and definitely not going to happen.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 01:56:12 PM
I like Dellow, but, uh, this is dumb and definitely not going to happen.

Yeah, if nothing else the same thing could be accomplished by structuring bonus money differently with no cap consequences.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 01:58:19 PM
If Leafs wait until after October 15th they can give him 7x7 and the cap hit for subsequent years is lower than 7

I think that would be the best scenario for all. Nylander gets a contract starting with a 7, which in all honesty I don't think dubas is really that far from anyway (or should be), the leafs get a cap hit starting with a 6, everyone saves face, Herman can stop playing the Smiths and staring at Nylander posters in his room, and we get back to the on-ice product.

And mgt works on a Marner 8M and Matthews at 12M in-season.

There, we solved all of the issues. No payment needed from Leafs, just set the board here in the alumni suite for the first home game with Nylander in the lineup.

I would very much question Dubas' judgement if 7x7 was a workable deal and they simply sat it out this long for the tiny, insignificant cap savings we're talking about.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: lc9 on October 06, 2018, 01:59:52 PM
I donít mind Nylander holding out.  Iím with Dubas on this one though. Leafs have 3 players that need contracts, on the list of importantance Nylander is last, his leverage isnít great.  Leafs will be fine without him for the time being and can afford to wait.   I appreciate that Nylander wants to get paid, but at the end of the day, itís more important for the leafs to have some cap flexibility. 

If Nylander doesnít eventually give in, then you trade him.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 02:07:15 PM
I would very much question Dubas' judgement if 7x7 was a workable deal and they simply sat it out this long for the tiny, insignificant cap savings we're talking about.

If I'm not mistaken, you're already questioning Dubas' judgement.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 02:13:03 PM
I would very much question Dubas' judgement if 7x7 was a workable deal and they simply sat it out this long for the tiny, insignificant cap savings we're talking about.

If I'm not mistaken, you're already questioning Dubas' judgement.

Unless I'm forgetting something I don't think I have.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 02:16:12 PM
I would very much question Dubas' judgement if 7x7 was a workable deal and they simply sat it out this long for the tiny, insignificant cap savings we're talking about.

If I'm not mistaken, you're already questioning Dubas' judgement.

Unless I'm forgetting something I don't think I have.


To continue in my series of extremely mild criticisms, I think it really sucks that Nylander isn't signed and that it represents a mistake on management's part.

You think it sucks that it represents a mistake, or you think it represents a mistake?

Both.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 06, 2018, 02:20:03 PM
If Leafs wait until after October 15th they can give him 7x7 and the cap hit for subsequent years is lower than 7

I think that would be the best scenario for all. Nylander gets a contract starting with a 7, which in all honesty I don't think dubas is really that far from anyway (or should be), the leafs get a cap hit starting with a 6, everyone saves face, Herman can stop playing the Smiths and staring at Nylander posters in his room, and we get back to the on-ice product.

And mgt works on a Marner 8M and Matthews at 12M in-season.

There, we solved all of the issues. No payment needed from Leafs, just set the board here in the alumni suite for the first home game with Nylander in the lineup.

I would very much question Dubas' judgement if 7x7 was a workable deal and they simply sat it out this long for the tiny, insignificant cap savings we're talking about.
Well depends on how long they wait. Do they really need Nylander in the first 30 games or so? The entire season is about getting ready for the playoffs. If they wait until December 1st and give him 7x7, the subsequent cap hits are only 6.68 or something like that. Not insignificant in that case.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 02:21:25 PM
Yeah, I don't necessarily think a mistake is the result of bad judgement.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 02:23:56 PM
Yeah, I don't necessarily think a mistake is the result of bad judgement.

You know, it wouldn't be the end of the world if you simply acknowleged it when you're so obviously caught out. It's a mark of character, not a flaw.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 02:25:49 PM
Well depends on how long they wait. Do they really need Nylander in the first 30 games or so? The entire season is about getting ready for the playoffs.

And part of that is putting yourself in good playoff seeding. A few points here or there might not mean the difference between making the playoffs or not but it can absolutely be the difference between who you face in the playoffs.

And, yeah, I'd still consider half of a minimum salary player to be relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things cap wise. You're talking about .4% of the cap at most.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 02:26:47 PM
You know, it wouldn't be the end of the world if you simply acknowleged it when you're so obviously caught out. It's a mark of character, not a flaw.

And when I am, I do. This is just a situation where I've got a better handle on what I think than you do.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 02:30:11 PM
You know, it wouldn't be the end of the world if you simply acknowleged it when you're so obviously caught out. It's a mark of character, not a flaw.

And when I am, I do. This is just a situation where I've got a better handle on what I think than you do.

Nope, not going to let you have this one, because you'd never have the decency to let someone else in the same scenario.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 06, 2018, 02:31:30 PM
Well depends on how long they wait. Do they really need Nylander in the first 30 games or so? The entire season is about getting ready for the playoffs.

And part of that is putting yourself in good playoff seeding. A few points here or there might not mean the difference between making the playoffs or not but it can absolutely be the difference between who you face in the playoffs.

And, yeah, I'd still consider half of a minimum salary player to be relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things cap wise. You're talking about .4% of the cap at most.
It all adds up. Leafs will only have played 13 games by November 1st, why not play it by ear and see how the team is doing. If they get along fine without Nylander they learn to play while missing guys in the future due to injury or what not.  Then once Nylander gets back you inject more skill and team gets a boost. As long as the Leafs are winning games I don't see this as an issue, in fact it's a benefit
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 02:36:05 PM
Nope, not going to let you have this one, because you'd never have the decency to let someone else in the same scenario.

So, in service of this relatively minor point, you're going to continue to say that you have a better idea than I do about what I meant by "mistake"?

Hey, if that's what you want to spend your afternoon talking about, sure. Let's play "Does Nik know the dictionary?". I'm sure it'll be thrilling for all involved.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 06, 2018, 02:38:24 PM
Well depends on how long they wait. Do they really need Nylander in the first 30 games or so? The entire season is about getting ready for the playoffs.

And part of that is putting yourself in good playoff seeding. A few points here or there might not mean the difference between making the playoffs or not but it can absolutely be the difference between who you face in the playoffs.

And, yeah, I'd still consider half of a minimum salary player to be relatively insignificant in the grand scheme of things cap wise. You're talking about .4% of the cap at most.
It all adds up. Leafs will only have played 13 games by November 1st, why not play it by ear and see how the team is doing. If they get along fine without Nylander they learn to play while missing guys in the future due to injury or what not.  Then once Nylander gets back you inject more skill and team gets a boost. As long as the Leafs are winning games I don't see this as an issue, in fact it's a benefit

The only downside is that Nylander might be half a step behind for the first little bit when he comes in.  He'll be in shape, but he'll still have to get some reps in before he is back to full strength, but I think that is something that is offset by him maybe being fresher down the stretch.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 02:40:18 PM
It all adds up. Leafs will only have played 13 games by November 1st, why not play it by ear and see how the team is doing. If they get along fine without Nylander they learn to play while missing guys in the future due to injury or what not.  Then once Nylander gets back you inject more skill and team gets a boost. As long as the Leafs are winning games I don't see this as an issue, in fact it's a benefit

That raises the issue of what "fine" is in context. Is it maintaining a playoff spot? Staying ahead of Tampa? Challenging for 1st in the conference? Because I think most of us were kind of hoping that the Leafs could make some real noise this year and that's why a few points here or there could be significant things. If home ice advantage is determined in the 2nd or 3rd round by the Leafs either winning or losing a few points in the early months, I think that's a pretty terrible gamble.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 02:48:25 PM
Nope, not going to let you have this one, because you'd never have the decency to let someone else in the same scenario.

So, in service of this relatively minor point, you're going to continue to say that you have a better idea than I do about what I meant by "mistake"?

Hey, if that's what you want to spend your afternoon talking about, sure. Let's play "Does Nik know the dictionary?". I'm sure it'll be thrilling for all involved.

No, I'm not going to help you self-validate, no matter how long you drag it out. You can only be the authority if people cede to it. You'll realize it's a favour at some point down the line.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 03:02:16 PM
No, I'm not going to help you self-validate, no matter how long you drag it out. You can only be the authority if people cede to it. You'll realize it's a favour at some point down the line.

Yeah, well, I guess we'll just have to leave it at me continuing to think I'm the ultimate authority on the meaning of the things I say.

Solid contribution though. Really made me think about me and my ways.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 06, 2018, 03:02:18 PM
It all adds up. Leafs will only have played 13 games by November 1st, why not play it by ear and see how the team is doing. If they get along fine without Nylander they learn to play while missing guys in the future due to injury or what not.  Then once Nylander gets back you inject more skill and team gets a boost. As long as the Leafs are winning games I don't see this as an issue, in fact it's a benefit

That raises the issue of what "fine" is in context. Is it maintaining a playoff spot? Staying ahead of Tampa? Challenging for 1st in the conference? Because I think most of us were kind of hoping that the Leafs could make some real noise this year and that's why a few points here or there could be significant things. If home ice advantage is determined in the 2nd or 3rd round by the Leafs either winning or losing a few points in the early months, I think that's a pretty terrible gamble.
Not really, this is a long term play not just this season. The Leafs are concerned about making it all fit for the next 7 years, a few weeks or even 2 months without Nylander is small potatoes compared to that.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 03:06:03 PM
No, I'm not going to help you self-validate, no matter how long you drag it out. You can only be the authority if people cede to it. You'll realize it's a favour at some point down the line.

Yeah, well, I guess we'll just have to leave it at me continuing to think I'm the ultimate authority on the meaning of the things I say.

Solid contribution though. Really made me think about me and my ways.

Great! Well, you know, journey of a thousand miles, etc etc.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 03:07:15 PM
Not really, this is a long term play not just this season. The Leafs are concerned about making it all fit for the next 7 years, a few weeks or even 2 months without Nylander is small potatoes compared to that.

Yes really. I get that you think otherwise, and that's fine, but there's no right or wrong when it comes to whether or not 300K in cap savings over the next few years or the points that could play a significant role in whether or not the Leafs have a successful season are the smaller potatoes.

Something I've hinted at before is that I think the Leafs will have a much easier time getting guys to sign at discounts if they're actually successful as a team and I think next summer is when that will maybe be most important. So I think this year could be very significant and something they shouldn't be cavalier about.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 06, 2018, 03:13:19 PM
Not really, this is a long term play not just this season. The Leafs are concerned about making it all fit for the next 7 years, a few weeks or even 2 months without Nylander is small potatoes compared to that.

Yes really. I get that you think otherwise, and that's fine, but there's no right or wrong when it comes to whether or not 300K in cap savings over the next few years or the points that could play a significant role in whether or not the Leafs have a successful season are the smaller potatoes.

Something I've hinted at before is that I think the Leafs will have a much easier time getting guys to sign at discounts if they're actually successful as a team and I think next summer is when that will maybe be most important. So I think this year could be very significant and something they shouldn't be cavalier about.
I don't think the Leafs going deep and winning the Cup would convince players to take discounts, it would actually have the opposite effect. Look no further than Draisaitl who signed his big deal hot off the heels of a big playoff performance. Once players perform in the playoffs they'll use that as leverage in negotiations as well to drive up their price.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 03:15:21 PM
Great! Well, you know, journey of a thousand miles, etc etc.

See, I like what he said about contentment more.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 03:17:09 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMRgmmnIrDU

Sorry, if you want me to keep going, you're going to have to pay for another five minutes.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 03:20:00 PM
I don't think the Leafs going deep and winning the Cup would convince players to take discounts, it would actually have the opposite effect. Look no further than Draisaitl who signed his big deal hot off the heels of a big playoff performance. Once players perform in the playoffs they'll use that as leverage in negotiations as well to drive up their price.

See, when I'm talking about "Team Success" I'm really talking about more than getting knocked out in the 2nd round.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 03:20:52 PM
Sorry, if you want me to keep going, you're going to have to pay for another five minutes.

Right. And, for argument's sake, what would I have to pay you to stop?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 03:24:14 PM
Sorry, if you want me to keep going, you're going to have to pay for another five minutes.

Right. And, for argument's sake, what would I have to pay you to stop?

I imagine my rates start with a 6, vs yours with a 8.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 03:28:14 PM
I imagine my rates start with a 6, vs yours with a 8.

Pffft. Someone making me that offer would have to think less Leon Draisaitl and more Johnny Phoenix.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 03:31:34 PM
I imagine my rates start with a 6, vs yours with a 8.

Pffft. Someone making me that offer would have to think less Leon Draisaitl and more Johnny Phoenix.

Yes, no question it's an overpayment, but it all comes down to how badly one wants it to happen.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 03:33:36 PM
Yes, no question it's an overpayment, but it all comes down to how badly one wants it to happen.

Well, the important thing is that I've finally found the Dave McNally to my Andy Messersmith. Union forever.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 03:42:59 PM
Yes, no question it's an overpayment, but it all comes down to how badly one wants it to happen.

Well, the important thing is that I've finally found the Dave McNally to my Andy Messersmith. Union forever.

Messersmith didn't live up to the value of his contract, but was apparently fine with not having the last word. I can see half of that as a good attribution.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 03:52:09 PM
Messersmith didn't live up to the value of his contract, but was apparently fine with not having the last word. I can see half of that as a good attribution.

See, I always took the Messersmith story to be one of the things we're willing to sacrifice in pursuit of principle. I'm not sure if you've ever read John Helyar's terrific The Lords of the Realm but your categorization of reducing him to only his Braves contract seems off. To a lot of people, the fight he was in was one that only would have been possible by means of being as stubborn as he was. By the end of his time negotiating with the Dodgers apparently they were willing to give him more or less whatever he wanted financially so he wouldn't test the reserve clause but for him it had become a more important issue that he was doggedly determined to see through to the bitter end.

In the end, I think Messersmith certainly did get the last word. His stubbornness, or principles I'm not one to quibble, forever changed the world of sports and almost certainly led directly to situations like the one the Leafs find themselves in with ol' Willy Nylander. I suppose we can only hope that Nylander isn't quite as Messersmith-y as others although, I'm sure you won't be surprised, I do think there's something admirable there if he is.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 06, 2018, 04:04:49 PM
Messersmith didn't live up to the value of his contract, but was apparently fine with not having the last word. I can see half of that as a good attribution.

In the end, I think Messersmith certainly did get the last word. His stubbornness, or principles I'm not one to quibble, forever changed the world of sports and almost certainly led directly to situations like the one the Leafs find themselves in with ol' Willy Nylander. I suppose we can only hope that Nylander isn't quite as Messersmith-y as others although, I'm sure you won't be surprised, I do think there's something admirable there if he is.

Well, that's a very impressive half-pivot and recovery back to the neutral zone of the thread title, and I suppose it's better that it came via baseball analogies instead of jughead comics. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 06, 2018, 04:12:27 PM
Well, that's a very impressive half-pivot and recovery back to the neutral zone of the thread title, and I suppose it's better that it came via baseball analogies instead of jughead comics.

Hey, if Jughead won't go to the mountain, I'll bring the mountain to Jughead.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: freer on October 06, 2018, 06:54:08 PM
IMO

Nylander is worth 6.2 -6.5
Marner is worth 7 - 7.5
Matthews is worth 9.0 - 9.5

John has proven he can do it year in year out, but honestly I dont think he is worth 11 mil. No player in the league is worth that. But I do think Kadri is better then Nylander.

Just throwing that out there.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 06, 2018, 09:54:00 PM
IMO

Nylander is worth 6.2 -6.5
Marner is worth 7 - 7.5
Matthews is worth 9.0 - 9.5

John has proven he can do it year in year out, but honestly I dont think he is worth 11 mil. No player in the league is worth that. But I do think Kadri is better then Nylander.

Just throwing that out there.
McDavid is worth that and more.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: freer on October 06, 2018, 10:11:10 PM
IMO

Nylander is worth 6.2 -6.5
Marner is worth 7 - 7.5
Matthews is worth 9.0 - 9.5

John has proven he can do it year in year out, but honestly I dont think he is worth 11 mil. No player in the league is worth that. But I do think Kadri is better then Nylander.

Just throwing that out there.
McDavid is worth that and more.

No player in the league is worth that much.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 06, 2018, 10:31:11 PM
IMO

Nylander is worth 6.2 -6.5
Marner is worth 7 - 7.5
Matthews is worth 9.0 - 9.5

John has proven he can do it year in year out, but honestly I dont think he is worth 11 mil. No player in the league is worth that. But I do think Kadri is better then Nylander.

Just throwing that out there.
McDavid is worth that and more.

No player in the league is worth that much.
McDavid is
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: freer on October 06, 2018, 10:41:26 PM
IMO

Nylander is worth 6.2 -6.5
Marner is worth 7 - 7.5
Matthews is worth 9.0 - 9.5

John has proven he can do it year in year out, but honestly I dont think he is worth 11 mil. No player in the league is worth that. But I do think Kadri is better then Nylander.

Just throwing that out there.
McDavid is worth that and more.

No player in the league is worth that much.
McDavid is

No player is worth more in one year, then the average person earns in a life.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 06, 2018, 10:45:12 PM
IMO

Nylander is worth 6.2 -6.5
Marner is worth 7 - 7.5
Matthews is worth 9.0 - 9.5

John has proven he can do it year in year out, but honestly I dont think he is worth 11 mil. No player in the league is worth that. But I do think Kadri is better then Nylander.

Just throwing that out there.
McDavid is worth that and more.

No player in the league is worth that much.
McDavid is

No player is worth more in one year, then the average person earns in a life.
This is sports where people make a lot of money. Games shouldn't cost a few hundred to watch but they do. It's called capitalism, some people make a ton of money doing different things. I'm terms of the value of players on an NHL team, McDavid is worth every penny he's making
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 07, 2018, 02:41:12 AM
Tavares on the Nylander impasse:

Quote
ďItís a negotiation, and things take their own time, their own process, and sometimes thereís some tough moments through it,Ē Tavares noted about Nylander. ďI think at the end of the day, things will get resolved, and Iím looking forward to hopefully having Willy here as soon as he can.Ē


https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/maple-leafs-tavares-advice-teammates-negotiating-contracts-155006306.html
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 07, 2018, 01:43:13 PM
IMO

Nylander is worth 6.2 -6.5
Marner is worth 7 - 7.5
Matthews is worth 9.0 - 9.5

John has proven he can do it year in year out, but honestly I dont think he is worth 11 mil. No player in the league is worth that. But I do think Kadri is better then Nylander.

Just throwing that out there.
McDavid is worth that and more.

No player in the league is worth that much.
McDavid is

No player is worth more in one year, then the average person earns in a life.

So no player in the league is worth more than the average person makes in a lifetime, but even assuming someone makes 100k a year, which is way more than the average, they would only make 5 million dollars if they worked for 50 years. So all of what you said Marner, Nylander and Matthews are worth is already way, way more than the average person would earn in a lifetime.

I really don't understand what thought process could arrive at "No player should earn 11 million a year because that's an obscene amount of money but 9 million, sure".
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 07, 2018, 01:51:26 PM
No player is worth more in one year, then the average person earns in a life.
This is sports where people make a lot of money. Games shouldn't cost a few hundred to watch but they do. It's called capitalism, some people make a ton of money doing different things. I'm terms of the value of players on an NHL team, McDavid is worth every penny he's making

Nobody tell freer how much Jeff Bezos is "worth".
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 07, 2018, 02:15:47 PM
No player is worth more in one year, then the average person earns in a life.
This is sports where people make a lot of money. Games shouldn't cost a few hundred to watch but they do. It's called capitalism, some people make a ton of money doing different things. I'm terms of the value of players on an NHL team, McDavid is worth every penny he's making

Nobody tell freer how much Jeff Bezos is "worth".
I mean I understand the sentiment, I hate the fact that people are starving in the world while others are rich because they make YouTube videos playing video games and millions of kids watch them. It's a messed up society, but you can't look at that and say "no hockey player is worth X amount of money". When comparing the market value of hockey players, McDavid is absolutely worth all the money he's getting and in fact is even underpaid
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on October 07, 2018, 02:50:27 PM
IMO

Nylander is worth 6.2 -6.5
Marner is worth 7 - 7.5
Matthews is worth 9.0 - 9.5

John has proven he can do it year in year out, but honestly I dont think he is worth 11 mil. No player in the league is worth that. But I do think Kadri is better then Nylander.

Just throwing that out there.
McDavid is worth that and more.

No player in the league is worth that much.
McDavid is

No player is worth more in one year, then the average person earns in a life.

This is why you should vote for progressives in your next election, particular if you live in the US. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Frycer14 on October 07, 2018, 03:22:41 PM
No one should have pay more than $18 for a seat in the platinum level. And the beer should be free.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: princedpw on October 07, 2018, 03:25:50 PM
No one should have pay more than $18 for a seat in the platinum level. And the beer should be free.

This seems unrelated.  🙂
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 07, 2018, 03:33:33 PM
No one should have pay more than $18 for a seat in the platinum level. And the beer should be free.
I'm liking this, and all players should only make 80K
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bender on October 07, 2018, 11:33:01 PM
No player is worth more in one year, then the average person earns in a life.
This is sports where people make a lot of money. Games shouldn't cost a few hundred to watch but they do. It's called capitalism, some people make a ton of money doing different things. I'm terms of the value of players on an NHL team, McDavid is worth every penny he's making

Nobody tell freer how much Jeff Bezos is "worth".
I mean I understand the sentiment, I hate the fact that people are starving in the world while others are rich because they make YouTube videos playing video games and millions of kids watch them. It's a messed up society, but you can't look at that and say "no hockey player is worth X amount of money". When comparing the market value of hockey players, McDavid is absolutely worth all the money he's getting and in fact is even underpaid
These players are best in the world at something that has demand. That's literally it. If there were no market for it none of these guys would be making the same kind of money.

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Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: sickbeast on October 07, 2018, 11:37:29 PM
The longer this goes on the more I feel that Nylander has bought himself a ticket out of town.  Shanahan's comments were pretty telling.  At this point Nylander can either back down and accept a lower deal than he wants, or he can pack his bags.  It's that simple.  And knowing his agent and his father, I'm really starting to feel like he's played his last game as a Leaf.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 08, 2018, 12:10:24 AM
The longer this goes on the more I feel that Nylander has bought himself a ticket out of town.  Shanahan's comments were pretty telling.  At this point Nylander can either back down and accept a lower deal than he wants, or he can pack his bags.  It's that simple.  And knowing his agent and his father, I'm really starting to feel like he's played his last game as a Leaf.

Losing Nylander would be a disaster.  That's not going to happen.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 08, 2018, 01:04:00 AM
The longer this goes on the more I feel that Nylander has bought himself a ticket out of town.  Shanahan's comments were pretty telling.  At this point Nylander can either back down and accept a lower deal than he wants, or he can pack his bags.  It's that simple.  And knowing his agent and his father, I'm really starting to feel like he's played his last game as a Leaf.

Losing Nylander would be a disaster.  That's not going to happen.
If Kappy could be a reliable replacement it wouldn't be. Matthews getting 8 points in 3 games with Ennis and now Kappy as his winger doesn't bode well for Nylander. I don't think the Leafs are going to budge much on their price. We are def better with him but the budget is the budget. Let's hope this gets done but I hope we get a good dose of Kappy with Matthews to see what he can do.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 08, 2018, 07:47:23 AM
The longer this goes on the more I feel that Nylander has bought himself a ticket out of town.  Shanahan's comments were pretty telling.  At this point Nylander can either back down and accept a lower deal than he wants, or he can pack his bags.  It's that simple.  And knowing his agent and his father, I'm really starting to feel like he's played his last game as a Leaf.

Losing Nylander would be a disaster.  That's not going to happen.

Do we think it would be that much of a disaster? I mean, yes, it would hurt the team and what it could be but  if someone told you that we could have almost the same roster as last year but instead of Nylander you'd have John Tavares, I think a lot of people would be very happy.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 08, 2018, 07:54:54 AM
I mean I understand the sentiment, I hate the fact that people are starving in the world while others are rich because they make YouTube videos playing video games and millions of kids watch them. It's a messed up society, but you can't look at that and say "no hockey player is worth X amount of money". When comparing the market value of hockey players, McDavid is absolutely worth all the money he's getting and in fact is even underpaid
[/quote

I don't think it's reasonable to just sort of blame our "society" like it's not a reflection of the values people have and have always had. A lot of people think that the wealthiest athlete of all time isn't Tiger Woods or Michael Jordan but was Gaius Appulieus Diocles, a 2nd century charioteer. As a species, we've always been more interested in spending money to entertain ourselves than to give to the needy.

I'm sure it feels good to say that it's a perverse set of values that sees Athletes or Youtube stars get paid lots while people don't have enough food but there's nothing stopping any of us from not paying for Sportsnet or not buying Leafs jerseys or tickets and giving that money to the United Way. The problem is that's just not what peoples values actually are. For all the words that may be to the contrary, peoples values are really indicated by their own choices.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 08, 2018, 07:57:44 AM
Do we think it would be that much of a disaster? I mean, yes, it would hurt the team and what it could be but  if someone told you that we could have almost the same roster as last year but instead of Nylander you'd have John Tavares, I think a lot of people would be very happy.

I think long-term it would be pretty bad. Last year's roster was nowhere near a contender and swapping Tavares for Nylander doesn't change that a bit.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 08, 2018, 08:26:18 AM
Do we think it would be that much of a disaster? I mean, yes, it would hurt the team and what it could be but  if someone told you that we could have almost the same roster as last year but instead of Nylander you'd have John Tavares, I think a lot of people would be very happy.

I think long-term it would be pretty bad. Last year's roster was nowhere near a contender and swapping Tavares for Nylander doesn't change that a bit.

I don't know about how bad it would be. Like I said, the team is worse today without both of them, but IMO is better with Tavares than with Nylander. I think Tavares brings far more to the table than Nylander does or will. That's just an opinion though.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 08, 2018, 08:34:47 AM
I don't know about how bad it would be. Like I said, the team is worse today without both of them, but IMO is better with Tavares than with Nylander. I think Tavares brings far more to the table than Nylander does or will. That's just an opinion though.

That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 08, 2018, 08:43:28 AM
I don't know about how bad it would be. Like I said, the team is worse today without both of them, but IMO is better with Tavares than with Nylander. I think Tavares brings far more to the table than Nylander does or will. That's just an opinion though.

That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.

This is true. I never thought of Bozak and JVR.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bullfrog on October 08, 2018, 09:10:28 AM
The longer this goes on the more I feel that Nylander has bought himself a ticket out of town.  Shanahan's comments were pretty telling.  At this point Nylander can either back down and accept a lower deal than he wants, or he can pack his bags.  It's that simple.  And knowing his agent and his father, I'm really starting to feel like he's played his last game as a Leaf.

If Dubas and Shanahan are that easily offended by a player being firm on getting what he feels is proper value, they're in the wrong business. We're talking about a 7-8 year deal; a couple of months isn't going to change much at all.

As a fan, I'm not sure why you're drawing such a hard line in the sand.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zee on October 08, 2018, 09:24:54 AM
I don't know about how bad it would be. Like I said, the team is worse today without both of them, but IMO is better with Tavares than with Nylander. I think Tavares brings far more to the table than Nylander does or will. That's just an opinion though.

That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.
It's incomplete right now. If Nylander has played his last game as a Leaf (which I don't believe at all) it's not like he'd just be subtracted from the team with nothing coming back. It would all depend on what they get for him. Maybe you get back a dynamic young defenseman and/or forward. We don't know at this point.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bill_Berg on October 08, 2018, 09:35:01 AM
The longer this goes on the more I feel that Nylander has bought himself a ticket out of town.  Shanahan's comments were pretty telling.  At this point Nylander can either back down and accept a lower deal than he wants, or he can pack his bags.  It's that simple.  And knowing his agent and his father, I'm really starting to feel like he's played his last game as a Leaf.

If Dubas and Shanahan are that easily offended by a player being firm on getting what he feels is proper value, they're in the wrong business. We're talking about a 7-8 year deal; a couple of months isn't going to change much at all.

As a fan, I'm not sure why you're drawing such a hard line in the sand.

Although a couple months = this entire season since he can't play this season if he doesn't sign by Dec 1. If they can't agree to something by then, I could see them trading Nylander. Assuming they can get something close to his value, which they may not.

Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 08, 2018, 09:59:55 AM
That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.
It's incomplete right now. If Nylander has played his last game as a Leaf (which I don't believe at all) it's not like he'd just be subtracted from the team with nothing coming back. It would all depend on what they get for him. Maybe you get back a dynamic young defenseman and/or forward. We don't know at this point.
[/quote]

I don't have a crystal ball but I feel very confident in saying the Leafs wouldn't get a very good return for a midseason trade of a player who's only available because he's refusing to budge from contract demands the Leafs seem to feel he's not worth.

Besides, if you were a team who really wanted Nylander why in the world would you offer the Leafs more than whatever the compensation would be for signing Nylander to a five year deal at the money he wanted?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Dappleganger on October 08, 2018, 10:19:24 AM
That feels like a pretty incomplete equation though. Is the team marginally better with Tavares than Nylander? Probably. Is the team better with Tavares but without Nylander, JVR and Bozak? That seems far less likely to me. So to me, right now, I think the team is worse than it was last year and I think down the road, I'd probably rather have Nylander at 8 than Tavares at 11.
It's incomplete right now. If Nylander has played his last game as a Leaf (which I don't believe at all) it's not like he'd just be subtracted from the team with nothing coming back. It would all depend on what they get for him. Maybe you get back a dynamic young defenseman and/or forward. We don't know at this point.

I don't have a crystal ball but I feel very confident in saying the Leafs wouldn't get a very good return for a midseason trade of a player who's only available because he's refusing to budge from contract demands the Leafs seem to feel he's not worth.

Besides, if you were a team who really wanted Nylander why in the world would you offer the Leafs more than whatever the compensation would be for signing Nylander to a five year deal at the money he wanted?

1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks would be the compensation.

Not a bad return.  :-\
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 08, 2018, 10:27:33 AM
1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks would be the compensation.

Not a bad return.  :-\

Bad would be a nice way to describe that.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Bullfrog on October 08, 2018, 10:28:52 AM
Yes, that would definitely be a bad return for a player arguably worth $7-8M a year.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 08, 2018, 11:06:19 AM
1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks would be the compensation.

Not a bad return.  :-\

That's what Tomas Tatar got. 
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 08, 2018, 11:21:00 AM
Look, Nylander is a "hit" with a top 10 pick.  That doesn't happen every time, and when it does, it's gold.  By any account he will have a long and successful -- maybe very successful -- career.  You don't let those players go unless you dig yourself into some kind of pit like OTT did with Karlsson.  And then you almost certainly don't get a fair return.

I think some of these folks are eager to just dump him because they don't like his "attitude' -- or his father's attitude ::) ::), or his agent's rep, or whatever.  It's absurd.
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 08, 2018, 11:24:35 AM
Look, Nylander is a "hit" with a top 10 pick.  That doesn't happen every time, and when it does, it's gold.  By any account he will have a long and successful -- maybe very successful -- career.  You don't let those players go unless you dig yourself into some kind of pit like OTT did with Karlsson.  And then you almost certainly don't get a fair return.

I think some of these folks are eager to just dump him because they don't like his "attitude' -- or his father's attitude ::) ::), or his agent's rep, or whatever.  It's absurd.

What, you don't think a billion dollar business should be run purely on spite?

I think there are some people who think that if Nylander holds firm on his contract demands that the team should trade him for pennies on the dollar so it sends a message to the rest of their players.

To their credit, I think it would. The problem is that message would be "We don't really care about winning".
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Dappleganger on October 08, 2018, 11:25:00 AM
1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks would be the compensation.

Not a bad return.  :-\

Bad would be a nice way to describe that.

I think it wholly depends on where the picks are.

If it's top 7, there's some benefit to that. This team is going to need young assets going forward to offset the larger contracts coming up soon.

How much of a detriment is it overpaying a player worth $6.5m at current market rates?
Title: Re: Contracts for the Big-3
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 08, 2018, 11:30:12 AM
Look, Nylander is a "hit" with a top 10 pick.  That doesn't happen every time, and when it does, it's gold.  By any account he will have a long and successful -- maybe very successful -- career.  You don't let those players go unless you dig yourself into some kind of pit like OTT did with Karlsson.  And then you almost certainly don't get a fair return.

I think some of these folks are eager to just dump him because they don't like his "attitude' -- or his father's attitude ::) ::), or his agent's rep, or whatever.  It's absurd.

What, you don't think a billion dollar business should be run purely on spite?

I think there are some people who think that if Nylander holds firm on his contract demands that the team should trade him for pennies on the dollar so it sends a message to the rest of their players.

To their credit,