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Maple Leafs News and Views => Leafs Media Rumours => General Rumours & Speculation => Topic started by: CarltonTheBear on March 08, 2018, 10:16:32 AM

Title: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on March 08, 2018, 10:16:32 AM
Bored without games, so just for kicks here's an armchair plan for next season:

1) Trade Zaitsev for Weber. Weber's the superior player but his contract is still pretty bad even if you're looking at it optimistically. If the Habs decide to make big changes and retool/rebuild then this gives them a younger righty who is signed long-term and can fit their future window much better. If you're opinion of Zaitsev falls closer to mine then there's no way Montreal makes this deal. But if you're opinion of him falls closer to Babcock's then I think it's pretty fair. Maybe tinker a little but it's a good start.

2) Sign Thornton to a 1-year deal worth $8mil. It's the same contract he signed last summer with San Jose. The Sharks will bow out in the 1st round and decide that money is better spent elsewhere. Thornton will join his buddy Marleau. The deals an overpayment but it's better than spreading it out over 2 years. Tavares would of course be preferable here but I'm going to assume he's dumb and will re-sign with the Islanders.

3) Make a big push for Tanev. The Leafs will still need a partner for Gardiner. Offer them Brown, Carrick, and 1st rounder to get the deal done. Overpayment? Maybe. Carrick's basically a throw-in and the plan is for that 1st rounder to be 29th-31st overall in 2019 though.

4) Sign Nylander to a long-term contract extension with a $7mil AAV. Might be a little lower, might be a little higher.

5) Trade Martin... somewhere. For something. I don't care where or for what.

All of this gives us a line-up of:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Thornton-Kapanen
x-x-Leivo
x-x

Rielly-Weber
Gardiner-Tanev
Dermott-Hainsey
Borgman

Andersen
McBackup/Sparks

That 4th line/extra forwards are a mystery, and after a few years of having so many different possibilities there it's a little sad I'm coming up with blanks there. Aaltonen could be one of them I guess. For cap purposes below, I'm going to assume each of those 4 x's will have a combined cap hit of $4mil.

That above roster, PLUS Horton's contract would put us at about $75mil for the cap. We could have up to $4.5mil in bonus penalties too that carry over from this season. The last estimate was that the salary cap for 18/19 would be around $78-82mil. So we'd be right at the edge of the cap, which is fine because that allows us to get maximum benefit from LTIR'ing Horton.

For the 2019-2020 season, Hainsey and Thornton will be off the books and the plan is to clearly ditch Marleau's contract somewhere. So that'd be $17.25mil in cap space added there. That's right about enough to get Matthews and Marner re-signed. Possibly $4mil more if Dermott's play allows us to walk away from Gardiner.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 21, 2018, 01:46:21 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Crucialness Key on March 21, 2018, 02:12:17 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.

Isn't this kind of how we got Zack Hyman?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 21, 2018, 02:27:02 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.

Isn't this kind of how we got Zack Hyman?

Yes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on March 21, 2018, 05:43:12 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.

I can't open Athletic links, so can you clarify what the Dubas link is to this player?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 21, 2018, 06:35:33 PM
I can't open Athletic links, so can you clarify what the Dubas link is to this player?

There is no direct Dubas connection to Mascherin.

There is only the similarity of circumstance (as Crucialness Key queried) to the trade that brought Zach Hyman into the Leaf fold prior to the 2015 draft, orchestrated by Dubas.

And while Iím explaining all this, Mascherin was Braccoís linemate and close friend in junior, and the usual recipient and beneficiary of his very slick passing plays.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on March 22, 2018, 09:40:23 AM
I can't open Athletic links, so can you clarify what the Dubas link is to this player?

There is no direct Dubas connection to Mascherin.

There is only the similarity of circumstance (as Crucialness Key queried) to the trade that brought Zach Hyman into the Leaf fold prior to the 2015 draft, orchestrated by Dubas.

And while Iím explaining all this, Mascherin was Braccoís linemate and close friend in junior, and the usual recipient and beneficiary of his very slick passing plays.

So what you are advocating for is a Mascherin-Matthews-Bracco line right?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on March 22, 2018, 09:42:45 AM
I can't open Athletic links, so can you clarify what the Dubas link is to this player?

There is no direct Dubas connection to Mascherin.

There is only the similarity of circumstance (as Crucialness Key queried) to the trade that brought Zach Hyman into the Leaf fold prior to the 2015 draft, orchestrated by Dubas.

And while Iím explaining all this, Mascherin was Braccoís linemate and close friend in junior, and the usual recipient and beneficiary of his very slick passing plays.

So what you are advocating for is a Mascherin-Matthews-Bracco line right?

Mascherin-Brooks-Bracco under 5'9 4th line baby!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 22, 2018, 10:09:41 AM
So what you are advocating for is a Mascherin-Matthews-Bracco line right?

Mascherin-Brooks-Bracco under 5'9 4th line baby!

Now I don't want anything else.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on March 22, 2018, 02:31:03 PM
2) Sign Thornton to a 1-year deal worth $8mil. It's the same contract he signed last summer with San Jose. The Sharks will bow out in the 1st round and decide that money is better spent elsewhere. Thornton will join his buddy Marleau. The deals an overpayment but it's better than spreading it out over 2 years. Tavares would of course be preferable here but I'm going to assume he's dumb and will re-sign with the Islanders.

I've been wondering about overpayment one-year deals for a difference maker next season... they've got lots of money available, and then things get tight.

Thorton seems a prime candidate, given how interested they were (reportedly) last season, but maybe they make a Radulov-esque offer to Kovalchuk? Nash? Or someone else?

Now that they didn't cash him in at the deadline, would be nice if they could find a way to keep JvR for another season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on March 22, 2018, 02:38:56 PM
I've been wondering about overpayment one-year deals for a difference maker next season... they've got lots of money available, and then things get tight.

Thorton seems a prime candidate, given how interested they were (reportedly) last season, but maybe they make a Radulov-esque offer to Kovalchuk? Nash? Or someone else?

Now that they didn't cash him in at the deadline, would be nice if they could find a way to keep JvR for another season.

I doubt Kovalchuk or Nash take 1-year deals. But if the Leafs don't go for a big centre like Tavares or Thornton then I'd definitely look at Kovalchuk on a 2-3 year deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on March 22, 2018, 06:46:54 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.

Isn't this kind of how we got Zack Hyman?

Yes.
They had to give up a Keg to get him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 29, 2018, 10:38:59 AM
One of the reasons for Mascherin's not signing with the Panthers is their lack of communication with him.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/chicago-blackhawks-stan-bowman-stanley-cup-runs/
Quote
12. The Panthers are trying to trade 2016 second-rounder Adam Mascherin of OHL Kitchener. A 40-goal scorer for the Rangers, he informed Florida he would not sign there before he can re-enter the draft in June. Itís unfortunate, as it appears there was some broken telephone that made things worse than they needed to be. This will not be easy for the Panthers, since interested teams wonít want to give up something if they think they can just draft him in three months. Their best hope is that someone who lacks draft choices where Mascherin might be taken decides it really wants him.

From back in September:

Looking forward to Mascherin - Brooks - Bracco ripping through the AHL and onto the Leafs' 4th* line in two years.

* It won't be a real 4th line, but it's hard to slot Brooks over any of Matthews, Kadri, Tavares.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on March 29, 2018, 11:44:49 AM
* It won't be a real 4th line, but it's hard to slot Brooks over any of Matthews, Kadri, Tavares.

Is that because Brooks isn't any good?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 29, 2018, 01:25:59 PM
* It won't be a real 4th line, but it's hard to slot Brooks over any of Matthews, Kadri, Tavares.

Is that because Brooks isn't any good?

He's quite good. He's not quite great.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on March 29, 2018, 01:41:43 PM
* It won't be a real 4th line, but it's hard to slot Brooks over any of Matthews, Kadri, Tavares.

Is that because Brooks isn't any good?

He's quite good. He's not quite great.

He does have 14 more points in the AHL this year than I do so, point conceded.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 29, 2018, 01:49:05 PM
He does have 14 more points in the AHL this year than I do so, point conceded.

He's shaking off the mono and finding a fit higher up in the lineup with Rychel, Soshnikov, Kapanen, and Johnsson leaving or Leafing. 7 of his 14 pts have come from Pi day on (which is the day Johnsson got called up).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on March 29, 2018, 02:04:05 PM
He does have 14 more points in the AHL this year than I do so, point conceded.

He's shaking off the mono and finding a fit higher up in the lineup with Rychel, Soshnikov, Kapanen, and Johnsson leaving or Leafing. 7 of his 14 pts have come from Pi day on (which is the day Johnsson got called up).

I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on March 29, 2018, 02:21:18 PM
I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.


That's because most guys in that draft year are two years younger than he is.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on March 29, 2018, 02:34:55 PM
I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.


That's because most guys in that draft year are two years younger than he is.

That's fine, it's still a low probability of success.  If you go back another 2 years to players the same age as him that were taken in rounds 4-7, there's only 13 out of 120 that have played in the NHL.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on March 29, 2018, 02:43:30 PM
I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.


That's because most guys in that draft year are two years younger than he is.

That's fine, it's still a low probability of success.  If you go back another 2 years to players the same age as him that were taken in rounds 4-7, there's only 13 out of 120 that have played in the NHL.

I agree. The chances of Brooks having much of a NHL career are pretty remote. That was my point.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on March 29, 2018, 03:10:34 PM
I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.


That's because most guys in that draft year are two years younger than he is.

That's fine, it's still a low probability of success.  If you go back another 2 years to players the same age as him that were taken in rounds 4-7, there's only 13 out of 120 that have played in the NHL.

I agree. The chances of Brooks having much of a NHL career are pretty remote. That was my point.

Yup, which would make any success he does have in the NHL a huge bonus for the Leafs.  That's why I'm still hoping the kid breaks through.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 04, 2018, 04:29:24 PM

The Flames are 100% trading Hamilton in the offseason and we need to get on that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 04, 2018, 04:42:38 PM
PA: Matt Martin, please come down to Kyle's office, Matt Martin to Kyle's office.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 04, 2018, 04:43:24 PM
There is also chatter coming out of Vancouver that they are pretty interested in making a pitch for Tyler Bozak come July.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on April 04, 2018, 04:45:24 PM
There is also chatter coming out of Vancouver that they are pretty interested in making a pitch for Tyler Bozak come July.

We should trade them his UFA rights for the low low price of a 2nd round pick.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 04, 2018, 05:04:28 PM
There is also chatter coming out of Vancouver that they are pretty interested in making a pitch for Tyler Bozak come July.

We should trade them his UFA rights for the low low price of a 2nd round pick.

To ensure they have his faceoff skills and playoff experience for 8 years, yeah.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 04, 2018, 05:45:22 PM

The Flames are 100% trading Hamilton in the offseason and we need to get on that.

Guy has 17 goals, 44 points, $5.75 cap hit for the next 3 season, so is going to be worth a boatload of a trade return. 

Would anyone consider moving Liljegren + + for him?  He's only 24.  Under the circumstances, with the forward core really showing to be ready for prime time, I think I'd do it...assuming the plus is reasonable.

Another thing, I wonder if either Sparks or Pickard are worth anything at this point?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on April 04, 2018, 10:47:35 PM

The Flames are 100% trading Hamilton in the offseason and we need to get on that.

Guy has 17 goals, 44 points, $5.75 cap hit for the next 3 season, so is going to be worth a boatload of a trade return. 

Would anyone consider moving Liljegren + + for him?  He's only 24.  Under the circumstances, with the forward core really showing to be ready for prime time, I think I'd do it...assuming the plus is reasonable.

Another thing, I wonder if either Sparks or Pickard are worth anything at this point?

I don't think that the Flames want a d-man back.  The chatter is that they will move pieces from their defence in order to get scoring depth.  In this case they are going to probably want someone who can contribute up front.  I'm not sure though that the pieces the Leafs have there are going to get it done.  Marner, Nylander, Kadri are too much to offer, and Brown, Kapanen, Johnsson are too little.  Plus I think they want help down the middle. 

Also, just to add to that, I am not sure Hamilton is the right kind of D-man to add.  The Leafs need a younger version of Hainsey.  Someone who is calm in his own end.  The Leafs already have guys who can put up points.  They need more d-men who can stifle an attack. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on April 05, 2018, 09:03:24 AM
 I think they are more likely to move Brodie and hold onto Hamilton.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 08, 2018, 04:56:26 PM

Kovalchuk on only a 2-3 year deal is very, very appealing. He's not coming back to the NHL for charity but if he was just looking to get paid he'd stay in the KHL, so if he comes back for something like what Radulov got ($5.75-6.25mil) then Lou should be giving him the call.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 08, 2018, 05:06:59 PM
Is Lou still the GM at that time?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 08, 2018, 05:14:51 PM
Is Lou still the GM at that time?

July 1st? Probably. I feel like Lou will still steer the ship through this offseason. Lots of work to do with the big-3 all eligible for new contracts, plus some big names available in free agency too. I don't think Shanny will want to put that all on Dubas/Hunter's shoulders right away. The earliest Lou steps down I think would be later in the summer after much of that work is done.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 08, 2018, 06:58:14 PM

Kovalchuk on only a 2-3 year deal is very, very appealing. He's not coming back to the NHL for charity but if he was just looking to get paid he'd stay in the KHL, so if he comes back for something like what Radulov got ($5.75-6.25mil) then Lou should be giving him the call.

Radulov came back on a one-year deal, apparently because he had to show teams he could still play at an elite level in the NHL... Although always better than Radulov, he's also older... so I wonder Kovalchuk is in a similar position.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 09, 2018, 10:39:47 AM

Kovalchuk on only a 2-3 year deal is very, very appealing. He's not coming back to the NHL for charity but if he was just looking to get paid he'd stay in the KHL, so if he comes back for something like what Radulov got ($5.75-6.25mil) then Lou should be giving him the call.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on April 09, 2018, 10:43:14 AM
JVR-Tavares-Kovalchuk on the Rangers?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: louisstamos on April 09, 2018, 10:47:28 AM

So much for that NYR "rebuild."
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 09, 2018, 10:50:08 AM

I'm still waiting for someone from North America to chime in here. So far nobody has touched this story and it's been up all morning. The Rangers really don't make any sense here. They've publicly stated that they're rebuilding and Kovalchuk has publicly stated his intention to play for a Cup contender. They also don't even have a head coach at the moment, and a player like Kovalchuk would probably want to at least know who that's going to be before signing a deal.

There's also the fact that technically teams aren't supposed to be talking to Kovalchuk until he turns 35 years old, which doesn't happen for another week. It's possible New Jersey just said "whatever do what you want", but that's how Friedman described the situation in his last 31 Thoughts column.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 09, 2018, 10:56:30 AM

I'm still waiting for someone from North America to chime in here. So far nobody has touched this story and it's been up all morning. The Rangers really don't make any sense here. They've publicly stated that they're rebuilding and Kovalchuk has publicly stated his intention to play for a Cup contender. They also don't even have a head coach at the moment, and a player like Kovalchuk would probably want to at least know who that's going to be before signing a deal.

There's also the fact that technically teams aren't supposed to be talking to Kovalchuk until he turns 35 years old, which doesn't happen for another week. It's possible New Jersey just said "whatever do what you want", but that's how Friedman described the situation in his last 31 Thoughts column.

I'm also side-eying that he only has a single source on this, but that didn't stop me from bumping it up here (since he was the original reporter on Kovalchuk's term preference).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 09, 2018, 11:03:02 AM
Is Lou still the GM at that time?

July 1st? Probably. I feel like Lou will still steer the ship through this offseason. Lots of work to do with the big-3 all eligible for new contracts, plus some big names available in free agency too. I don't think Shanny will want to put that all on Dubas/Hunter's shoulders right away. The earliest Lou steps down I think would be later in the summer after much of that work is done.

I'm having similar thoughts. Shanahan is looking to set Dubas (I do believe it's Dubas) up in a position to succeed, and that starts with clearing the decks of those really big contract negotiations via Lou first, or at the very least setting the table by getting Nylander's done. Matthews' is almost a foregone conclusion; there's really nothing to harangue there and it's going to be somewhere between Eichel's and McDavid's.

Does Edmonton or Buffalo take a huge run at scooping up Lou once we push him up and out?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: hockeyfan1 on April 10, 2018, 07:56:06 AM
Hmm.  Crunch time not yet but coming soon...


https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/4/8/17212612/toronto-maple-leafs-cap-space-2018-bonus-overages
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 18, 2018, 10:26:11 AM

I don't know who Jermaine Franklin or (Jason) Gregor are but boooooooyaaaahhhhhhhh!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 18, 2018, 10:36:38 AM
800 Lira, 45 Irish Punts and James Van Riemsdyk.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/21/Carnac.jpg/220px-Carnac.jpg)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 18, 2018, 10:37:35 AM
Hmm.  Crunch time not yet but coming soon...


https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/4/8/17212612/toronto-maple-leafs-cap-space-2018-bonus-overages
No D available to pay? Sure we could add a Thorton but our issue isn't up front. I think some pieces we don't want to move will have to move for this team to get better at D quickly. I don't think there is a "window" not with this D.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 18, 2018, 11:14:32 AM

I don't know who Jermaine Franklin or (Jason) Gregor are but boooooooyaaaahhhhhhhh!

Jermain Franklin (https://twitter.com/TSNJFranklin) is the Calgary beat reporter for TSN.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 19, 2018, 01:05:14 PM

All the attention right now is on the big-3's contracts (for good reason) but Johnsson's next deal could be very interesting as well. He's 23 years old, turns 24 in November... so despite being a rookie he's not exactly that young (in NHL terms). Do the Leafs feel comfortable enough in him to lock him up long-term, or do they go with a short term deal?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 19, 2018, 01:15:33 PM

Tyler, your son loves it here in Toronto. Enough that you should probably sign a 2-year contract worth $4mil to stay and be our 4C.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 19, 2018, 01:31:20 PM

All the attention right now is on the big-3's contracts (for good reason) but Johnsson's next deal could be very interesting as well. He's 23 years old, turns 24 in November... so despite being a rookie he's not exactly that young (in NHL terms). Do the Leafs feel comfortable enough in him to lock him up long-term, or do they go with a short term deal?

3 or 4 years, 2-3M, a la Brown/Hyman, depending on whether he wants to land on RFA or UFA at the end? Staggered to be the next wave after Brown/Hyman, still not out terming the big 3. Kapanen gets similar shortly after.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on April 19, 2018, 01:32:39 PM
All the attention right now is on the big-3's contracts (for good reason) but Johnsson's next deal could be very interesting as well. He's 23 years old, turns 24 in November... so despite being a rookie he's not exactly that young (in NHL terms). Do the Leafs feel comfortable enough in him to lock him up long-term, or do they go with a short term deal?

I wouldn't expect he'll get that much in value or term.  I'm thinking 2 years, 3 M (1.25, 1.75)?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 19, 2018, 01:45:58 PM
All the attention right now is on the big-3's contracts (for good reason) but Johnsson's next deal could be very interesting as well. He's 23 years old, turns 24 in November... so despite being a rookie he's not exactly that young (in NHL terms). Do the Leafs feel comfortable enough in him to lock him up long-term, or do they go with a short term deal?

I wouldn't expect he'll get that much in value or term.  I'm thinking 2 years, 3 M (1.25, 1.75)?

I'm projecting same term with slightly lesser value (% of cap). It's a good stretch of time to prove himself and pull a payday before he's over the hill. And even when he gets to the end of that deal, I doubt he'll exceed 4.5M AAV in production (Kadri level) should we choose to keep him longer, and we'll have basically made bank on all of his prime.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 26, 2018, 12:59:46 PM
2nd round pick + Johnsson + Gardiner for a minute eating Dman.

Not a knee jerk reaction to Gardiner's one bad game. I group Reilly/Dermott/Gardiner as similar type of Dman. I think we can live without one for another type of Dman.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 26, 2018, 01:34:28 PM
I'm most interested to see what they'll do with the $25m in cap space they have...

The big contracts won't be on the books for another season, so I wonder how many -- if any -- worthwhile players they can lure to play on 1yr overpayment contracts. It'll also be interesting to see if they get creative. Like... Is it a CBA violation to give Tavares a one-year $16m contract then re-sign him for 8 at 9m per? That's his $13m x 7 contract tweaked a bit.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 26, 2018, 02:01:23 PM
I'm most interested to see what they'll do with the $25m in cap space they have...

The big contracts won't be on the books for another season, so I wonder how many -- if any -- worthwhile players they can lure to play on 1yr overpayment contracts. It'll also be interesting to see if they get creative. Like... Is it a CBA violation to give Tavares a one-year $16m contract then re-sign him for 8 at 9m per? That's his $13m x 7 contract tweaked a bit.
Trade kids/prospects for salary D man. D UFAs aren't strong. I believe a trade is necessary to improve the D in a meaningful way.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2018, 02:28:55 PM
2nd round pick + Johnsson + Gardiner for a minute eating Dman.

Not a knee jerk reaction to Gardiner's one bad game. I group Reilly/Dermott/Gardiner as similar type of Dman. I think we can live without one for another type of Dman.
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 03:37:28 PM
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?

We should probably stop thinking of Nielsen as an NHL option.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 26, 2018, 03:39:45 PM
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?

We should probably stop thinking of Nielsen as an NHL option.

Probably ditto for Rosen and Holl too to be honest (even though I liked Holl's play in his 2 games, I just don't ever see him getting an extended opportunity).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2018, 03:57:05 PM
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?

We should probably stop thinking of Nielsen as an NHL option.

Probably ditto for Rosen and Holl too to be honest (even though I liked Holl's play in his 2 games, I just don't ever see him getting an extended opportunity).
I don't watch the Marlies, that's why I asked. Is that Igor Ozhiganov an option? He's a right hand shot? I've read where Kucherov was lobbying Tampa to bring him over and Babs and Lou went over to see him last summer...Maybe we go after John Carlson? Going to be interesting. Either way I think we need a top shut down guy so that Hainsey/Zaitsev can move down the depth chart.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 04:03:19 PM
Probably ditto for Rosen and Holl too to be honest (even though I liked Holl's play in his 2 games, I just don't ever see him getting an extended opportunity).

I wrote off Holl last season, but given the weakness on the right side, I can't ever say there's no chance on that side, unless we're talking about Corrado.

Rosen has been pretty good with the Marlies since he got adjusted (i.e. better than Borgman, but not as good as Dermott, Marincin). If they're willing to entertain him on the right side (after 3+ catastrophic injuries), he's got value. Unfortunately, his value is greater on a team that's not the Leafs.

Unless the Leafs drastically change in style on the backend, there is little hope for Rosen, Borgman. I hope the Marlies go on a hellacious long run here both for #TeamDubas and to give Babcock a really long look at what our player pool can look like if he lets go of a few hard-set ideas (boring 4th line, big-strong D requirement on PK, line reacting vs line dictating).

I don't watch the Marlies, that's why I asked. Is that Igor Ozhiganov an option? He's a right hand shot? I've read where Kucherov was lobbying Tampa to bring him over and Babs and Lou went over to see him last summer...Maybe we go after John Carlson? Going to be interesting. Either way I think we need a top shut down guy so that Hainsey/Zaitsev can move down the depth chart.

Ozhiganov is a bit worse (numbers-wise) than the free player we released to join his team in the KHL (Marchenko), but he does offer a different flavour of defense to what we've got. Not sure what his shot metrics look like, but he's less offensively gifted than Zaisev if that paints a picture. He has given commitment to the Leafs.

John Carlson is not likely the answer. He plays the semi-sheltered offensive D-man role. Unless Babcock suddenly decides that the new NHL is all about them goals and just goes hog-wild on offense-first-and-always, Carlson doesn't fit the niche we need filled. He's a points-getter too, so he'll be expensive and probably dreadful after the first 2 years of the new deal, especially if he gets pushed into the shutdown minutes he never played before.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: L K on April 26, 2018, 04:11:30 PM
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?

We should probably stop thinking of Nielsen as an NHL option.

Any particular reason for writing off Nielsen?  He had a disappointing year but he's only 21.  I certainly wouldn't bank on him in the next two years but he could easily have a bounce back year next year and look like a much better option.

Liljegren strikes me as a guy who needs a full season in the minors before being ready although maybe he surprises as a Dermott kind of callup if he gets off to a strong start next year.  Regardless, I think it rules him out as a viable option for the lineup starting next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 26, 2018, 04:15:32 PM
2nd round pick + Johnsson + Gardiner for a minute eating Dman.

Not a knee jerk reaction to Gardiner's one bad game. I group Reilly/Dermott/Gardiner as similar type of Dman. I think we can live without one for another type of Dman.
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?
We need someone today, not tomorrow. I can't see us getting better as a whole without a trade. Our D needs a massive upgrade that's not available within or via UFA, this summer anyway.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 04:20:07 PM
Any particular reason for writing off Nielsen?  He had a disappointing year but he's only 21.  I certainly wouldn't bank on him in the next two years but he could easily have a bounce back year next year and look like a much better option.

Liljegren strikes me as a guy who needs a full season in the minors before being ready although maybe he surprises as a Dermott kind of callup if he gets off to a strong start next year.  Regardless, I think it rules him out as a viable option for the lineup starting next season.

He's a defenseman who can't defend.

He sure can shoot the puck into the net, so that's a plus, but that's really all he's got going for him. Basics like skating and pivoting and decision making off the play are... adventures. The Leafs, rightly, don't rely on long bombs from the point.

Might be more worthwhile to convert him to wing, but he's not particularly fast going forwards.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 26, 2018, 05:00:14 PM
Andrei Markov meets the short term bill? He's committed to the KHL for 2 years (1 more) but maybe a few extra million could sway that?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2018, 06:37:23 PM
Probably ditto for Rosen and Holl too to be honest (even though I liked Holl's play in his 2 games, I just don't ever see him getting an extended opportunity).

I wrote off Holl last season, but given the weakness on the right side, I can't ever say there's no chance on that side, unless we're talking about Corrado.

Rosen has been pretty good with the Marlies since he got adjusted (i.e. better than Borgman, but not as good as Dermott, Marincin). If they're willing to entertain him on the right side (after 3+ catastrophic injuries), he's got value. Unfortunately, his value is greater on a team that's not the Leafs.

Unless the Leafs drastically change in style on the backend, there is little hope for Rosen, Borgman. I hope the Marlies go on a hellacious long run here both for #TeamDubas and to give Babcock a really long look at what our player pool can look like if he lets go of a few hard-set ideas (boring 4th line, big-strong D requirement on PK, line reacting vs line dictating).

I don't watch the Marlies, that's why I asked. Is that Igor Ozhiganov an option? He's a right hand shot? I've read where Kucherov was lobbying Tampa to bring him over and Babs and Lou went over to see him last summer...Maybe we go after John Carlson? Going to be interesting. Either way I think we need a top shut down guy so that Hainsey/Zaitsev can move down the depth chart.

Ozhiganov is a bit worse (numbers-wise) than the free player we released to join his team in the KHL (Marchenko), but he does offer a different flavour of defense to what we've got. Not sure what his shot metrics look like, but he's less offensively gifted than Zaisev if that paints a picture. He has given commitment to the Leafs.

John Carlson is not likely the answer. He plays the semi-sheltered offensive D-man role. Unless Babcock suddenly decides that the new NHL is all about them goals and just goes hog-wild on offense-first-and-always, Carlson doesn't fit the niche we need filled. He's a points-getter too, so he'll be expensive and probably dreadful after the first 2 years of the new deal, especially if he gets pushed into the shutdown minutes he never played before.
Thx Herman.. Appreciate it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on April 26, 2018, 07:06:31 PM
Thoughts on reconstructing the D:

Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

Reilly - Carlson
Dermott - Hamilton
Hainsey - Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

Edit:
Sign De Haan to shift Dermott down:

Reilly - Carlson
De Haan - Hamilton
Dermott - Pysyk/Severson
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2018, 07:28:54 PM
I was thinking about Da Haan. He could be an option. Hey he was a plus on the worst defensive team in the league. Hamilton could be good. Doesn't Calgary want some toughness, hello Martin
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 07:36:53 PM
Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

You would get laughed out, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on April 26, 2018, 07:53:00 PM
Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

You would get laughed out, unfortunately.

Which one(s) is/are laughably bad?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 08:02:28 PM
Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

You would get laughed out, unfortunately.

Which one(s) is/are laughably bad?

The Zaitsev one is the most difficult to see happening one for one. He's older (than Severson) and has more term and a higher salary than Pysyk and Severson. Severson appears to be supplanted, so it's not like they need someone on the right side. Florida is pretty happy with Pysyk as far as I can tell, so I don't see the incentive for either of them to target Zaitsev.

Gardiner for Hamilton is great for the Leafs, but I don't see why Calgary would want to do that, other than maybe short term cap reasons or just going kind of crazy.

That said, I'd be open to hearing some compelling arguments to the contrary.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on April 26, 2018, 08:33:48 PM
Hamilton isn't going anywhere unless someone comes up with a seriously crazy offer. They may take a good look at Bozak depending on what he's looking for in dollars and term.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on April 26, 2018, 08:36:53 PM
I can see the Pysyk deal being a tough sell for Florida, just thought he would be a good option for the Leafs.

Re: Zaitsev for Severson:
Right now, Zaitsev is the better player, but Severson has the better potential (and contract).  So, I'd be banking on Severson turning things around.  I can see a small add or retention from TO's side, but it shouldn't be much given we give up the better player.  For the Leafs, it's about higher potential and a better contract.

Re: Gardiner for Hamilton:
The hope here is that the rumours Calgary wants to trade him are real (for whatever reason they may have).  If that were the case, and assuming Calgary wants a defender back, I think this could could be a viable option with a little evening out (2nd or prospect).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: sickbeast on April 26, 2018, 08:55:33 PM
Is that Hamilton the same Douggie Hamilton that we essentially traded for Phil Kessel? Man that would really burn if the Leafs lose that trade. It would be like pouring vinegar on an already open wound.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on April 26, 2018, 09:38:26 PM
First thing I'd try to do is get Ottawa's conditional 1st round pick from Colorado.

Connor Brown + prospect hopefully would have traction.

I'd then send Ottawa Liljegren + Gardiner + Ottawa's and Toronto's 1st round picks for Erik Karlsson.


I think Toronto should look at having Matthews - Kadri - Nylander as the top 3 centers next year.

Look for some quality ufa's to fill out the wings and bottom D pairings.

Maybe Hamhuis or Greg Pateryn. Slim pickings for ufa's.

Not sure what people around think about throwing big money at John Carlson.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 07:59:42 AM
I can see the Pysyk deal being a tough sell for Florida, just thought he would be a good option for the Leafs.

Re: Zaitsev for Severson:
Right now, Zaitsev is the better player, but Severson has the better potential (and contract).  So, I'd be banking on Severson turning things around.  I can see a small add or retention from TO's side, but it shouldn't be much given we give up the better player.  For the Leafs, it's about higher potential and a better contract.

Re: Gardiner for Hamilton:
The hope here is that the rumours Calgary wants to trade him are real (for whatever reason they may have).  If that were the case, and assuming Calgary wants a defender back, I think this could could be a viable option with a little evening out (2nd or prospect).

They are no doubt upgrades for the Leafs and the types of defensemen we should probably be targeting. I just donít see any reason why the other teams would entertain those proposals.

I think it will require the involvement of other teams (who need offensive defensemen, like Edmonton and every team in the Atlantic that didnít make the playoffs, to provide the Leafs with more trade capital to get young defensive options from places like Florida, New Jersey, Anaheim, Carolina, where they have a glut of options.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 08:11:17 AM
Our prime trade chips have probably crept into core territory (Kapanen, Johnsson), or their contracts are expired (JvR, Komarov, Bozak).

Gauthier is a viable trade option. Heís playing well lately, but there is a dearth of centres on the market, carries 1st rd pick cred (which is nonsensical but most GMís still buy it).

Bracco is starting to heat up, but his ceiling is basically capped by Marner and Nylander on the RW. Timashov is a similar style player on the LW side, so he has a path to the NHL if he can realize his potential.

Nielsen might have suitors if they just look at his goal videos.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 08:14:47 AM
Our prime trade chips have probably crept into core territory (Kapanen, Johnsson), or their contracts are expired (JvR, Komarov, Bozak).

Gauthier is a viable trade option. Heís playing well lately, but there is a dearth of centres on the market, carries 1st rd pick cred (which is nonsensical but most GMís still buy it).

Bracco is starting to heat up, but his ceiling is basically capped by Marner and Nylander on the RW. Timashov is a similar style player on the LW side, so he has a path to the NHL if he can realize his potential.

Nielsen might have suitors if they just look at his goal videos.

Yeah... I don't see any of Gauthier/Timashov/Bracco having any real trade value at this point. At least not to bring back someone who might have any kind of impact.

If we're looking for moves, Brown needs to be shopped. We all like him I know but you need to give up something to get something, and we're incredibly loaded on the right side anyway.

Brown, Zaitsev, and our 1st would be something that I'd be trying to sell around the league... with the hope that other people see Zaitsev more like Babcock does as opposed to how I see him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 09:22:49 AM
Yeah... I don't see any of Gauthier/Timashov/Bracco having any real trade value at this point. At least not to bring back someone who might have any kind of impact.

If we're looking for moves, Brown needs to be shopped. We all like him I know but you need to give up something to get something, and we're incredibly loaded on the right side anyway.

Brown, Zaitsev, and our 1st would be something that I'd be trying to sell around the league... with the hope that other people see Zaitsev more like Babcock does as opposed to how I see him.

I was thinking of them as part of packages, but you're probably right it has to be primarily an NHL transaction.

I've read recently (or heard, but can't remember the source) that prior to the Hamonic deal, Anaheim really mulled deeply about JvR for one of their D (or was it Andersen+?), but it didn't fully materialize (or our ask was too high).

Is Anaheim going to take one more big swing while Getzlaf is still mobile and Kesler's body parts are still intact? They're not going to want to be anywhere near the cap if they're rebuilding/retooling and we have cheap parts. Same thing for Carolina.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 27, 2018, 09:41:11 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 09:52:15 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?



I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 09:55:12 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?



I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.
I would crap myself if they somehow got Webber. I would literally pick my spot for the parade.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 27, 2018, 09:56:19 AM
You want to have an impact trade for a D-man?  Make Kadri the main piece.  He's coming off a record goal-getting year, plays a 2-way game, and is signed for several more years at a very reasonable price. 

This frees Nylander to move to center, where he should be, and opens his spot on the top line for Kapanen.

Although I am not entirely sold on signing Tavares, if you use Kadri to get a top-pairing defenseman then you can use all that cap space on Tavares if you want.  If he re-signs with NYI before the deadline, then try to re-sign Bozak as 3C.

Sure it's a gamble if you can't get either Tavares or Bozak or at least Bozak's equivalent, but to me Kadri is our most promising trade chip.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 09:57:30 AM
You want to have an impact trade for a D-man?  Make Kadri the main piece.  He's coming off a record goal-getting year, plays a 2-way game, and is signed for several more years at a very reasonable price. 

This frees Nylander to move to center, where he should be, and opens his spot on the top line for Kapanen.

Although I am not entirely sold on signing Tavares, if you use Kadri to get a top-paring defenseman then you can use all that cap space on Tavares if you want.  If he re-signs with NYI before the deadline, then try to re-sign Bozak as 3C.

Sure it's a gamble if you can't get either Tavares or Bozak or at least Bozak's equivalent, but to me Kadri is our most promising trade chip.

If he brought in an under-30 top-3 RD with some term, yeah I'd consider moving him for sure.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 27, 2018, 09:58:11 AM
You want to have an impact trade for a D-man?  Make Kadri the main piece.  He's coming off a record goal-getting year, plays a 2-way game, and is signed for several more years at a very reasonable price. 

This frees Nylander to move to center, where he should be, and opens his spot on the top line for Kapanen.

Although I am not entirely sold on signing Tavares, if you use Kadri to get a top-paring defenseman then you can use all that cap space on Tavares if you want.  If he re-signs with NYI before the deadline, then try to re-sign Bozak as 3C.

Sure it's a gamble if you can't get either Tavares or Bozak or at least Bozak's equivalent, but to me Kadri is our most promising trade chip.

If he brought in an under-30 top-3 RD with some term, yeah I'd consider moving him for sure.

That's precisely what I had in mind.  I'm no good at making specific trade proposals.  Any suggestions as to who would fit the bill?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 10:05:51 AM
If he brought in an under-30 top-3 RD with some term, yeah I'd consider moving him for sure.

That's precisely what I had in mind.  I'm no good at making specific trade proposals.  Any suggestions as to who would fit the bill?

Not saying there's an immediate fit for all these teams, but these are the guys I'd like to have on the team, to varying degrees (and most are impossible to pry):
Lindholm, Manson, Montour
Slavin, Pesce, maybe Faulk
Ekblad (though pricey)
Hamilton
Trouba
Girard
Provorov
Werenski, Jones
Severson
Chabot
McAvoy
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 27, 2018, 10:16:53 AM
If he brought in an under-30 top-3 RD with some term, yeah I'd consider moving him for sure.

That's precisely what I had in mind.  I'm no good at making specific trade proposals.  Any suggestions as to who would fit the bill?

Not saying there's an immediate fit for all these teams, but these are the guys I'd like to have on the team, to varying degrees (and most are impossible to pry):
Lindholm, Manson, Montour
Slavin, Pesce, maybe Faulk
Ekblad (though pricey)
Hamilton
Trouba
Girard
Provorov
Werenski, Jones
Severson
Chabot
McAvoy

It should be possible to get either Anaheim or Carolina to part with one of those guys.

I think I would target the Canes.  A new GM may wish to make his mark.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 10:46:17 AM
Our trade chips:
On D one of Gardiner/Dermott/Reilly and at W one of Kappi/Johnsson and picks.

Potential return (I tried to include only "realistic" targets, expiring contracts or teams looking for a shakeup):

Car: Faulk
Dal: Methot
Edm: Russell
LA: Doughty/Martinez/Muzzin
Min: Dumba (doubt it but maybe budget constraints?)
MTL: Petry/Weber (post firing of their GM)
NSH: Ellis (dream on)
Ott: Karlsson/Ceci
Phi: MacDonald
Pit: Oleksiak
SJ: Martin/Braun/Dillon
STL: Gunnarsson/Bouwmeester (actually think B is a fairly realistic option and the type of D Tor is lacking)
VAN: Edler/Del Zotto


Potential UFAs:
Johnson, Hamhuis, Thorton, Carlsson
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 27, 2018, 10:47:21 AM
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 10:50:03 AM
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
No one is giving away grade A Dman with wonderful contracts. Throw out solutions not shade.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 10:57:08 AM
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
No one is giving away grade A Dman with wonderful contracts. Throw out solutions not shade.

Perhaps WIGWAL, and I, misunderstand your proposal.

Are you suggesting we trade one of Gardiner, Dermott, and Rielly, as well as Kapanen or Johnsson, in order to secure the services of Kris Russell?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 27, 2018, 10:59:14 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?



I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.

Yea, I guess one major roadblock is Bergevin and him wanting to save as much face as possible on that Subban deal. It's a shame; I think it would work well (or some variation of that deal) for both teams.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: azzurri63 on April 27, 2018, 11:08:24 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?



I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.

Yea, I guess one major roadblock is Bergevin and him wanting to save as much face as possible on that Subban deal. It's a shame; I think it would work well (or some variation of that deal) for both teams.

I would stay away from Weber. Not sure why people want to fork out assets, take on a ridiculous contract for a guy that is fading, slowing down and going to be hurt more often than not. He wa great defenseman but those days are long gone. I personally don't think he has that many years left. He played hard and think it's starting to catch up on him. If his contract was reasonable or Mtl retained a huge chunk then maybe but otherwise I hope management stays away.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 11:23:05 AM
I would stay away from Weber. Not sure why people want to fork out assets, take on a ridiculous contract for a guy that is fading, slowing down and going to be hurt more often than not. He wa great defenseman but those days are long gone. I personally don't think he has that many years left. He played hard and think it's starting to catch up on him. If his contract was reasonable or Mtl retained a huge chunk then maybe but otherwise I hope management stays away.

Weber's still playing at a pretty high level. There's definitely some skating issues but he can pass the puck well enough to offset those, and playing beside a guy like Rielly would take a lot of pressure off him too.

This season he put up a 54.27% CF and scored 16 points in 26 games. Last season he still put up positive possession numbers in difficult minutes while dragging Alexei Emelin around and scored 42 points. He still definitely has a few more years left as a top pairing defenceman.

Obviously, a Doughty or Karlsson would be preferred but after that he's probably the best defenceman of those "rumoured" to be available.

His contract isn't great for sure (although given the last 3 years are at $1mil it's safe to assume he won't be playing those), but desperate times would call for desperate measures.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 11:26:56 AM
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
No one is giving away grade A Dman with wonderful contracts. Throw out solutions not shade.

Perhaps WIGWAL, and I, misunderstand your proposal.

Are you suggesting we trade one of Gardiner, Dermott, and Rielly, as well as Kapanen or Johnsson, in order to secure the services of Kris Russell?
I listed our valued trade chips and listed who I thought could be possibly available from other teams. For Kris I would say picks.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on April 27, 2018, 11:28:11 AM
Leave Weber alone, to old and injury prone.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 11:30:00 AM
Carlton's take is the correct take.

I also agree that it's going to be tough to get him, given the habs media will directly compare the return to a return on Subban.

But having said that, the habs say they're rebuilding, so I would have to think they'd definitely listen to offers. 

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 11:44:52 AM
Leave Weber alone, to old and injury prone.

Prior to this season he never missed more then 4 games for 9 straight seasons. Given his style of play that's actually pretty remarkable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 11:45:18 AM
Leave Weber alone, to old and injury prone.

Prior to this season he never missed more then 4 games for 9 straight seasons. Given his style of play that's actually pretty remarkable.
If he retires it's not on us.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on April 27, 2018, 11:52:02 AM
Put me in the acquiring Weber group if he can be had. He'd be serviceable on the Leafs even if his play is in decline.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 27, 2018, 11:56:56 AM
Leave Weber alone, to old and injury prone.

Prior to this season he never missed more then 4 games for 9 straight seasons. Given his style of play that's actually pretty remarkable.
If he retires it's not on us.

This is another reason I don't think it's thaaaat big of a risk. You can probably get Montreal to retain a bit of that cap hit too. Obviously the "aesthetics" of the deal is the main sticking point here. If Weber had been an FA signing for them, this could have been an easy move.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 27, 2018, 12:10:36 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 12:25:50 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 12:31:10 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.
And 7.5 million in cap hit. No thanks.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 12:42:58 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.
And 7.5 million in cap hit. No thanks.

Cap space really isn't an issue next season:  https://capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

I'm looking at low asset cost options to fill the 3rd line centre job, but with some offensive upside.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 12:57:40 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

Improvements to the backend are where more creativity and assessment are required, because a real-deal player will require moving a real-deal player in return (which shuffles things). Zaitsev started to round into form this season, stilted a run as it was. I am not entirely ready to cut bait there unless a better opportunity lands in our laps.

I'd love to see Martin Marincin get a fresh new chance with the Leafs. He has looked good with Zaitsev in the past.

This honestly would not bother me, but probably isn't Babcock's cup of tea:
Rielly - Gardiner
Marincin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 01:09:32 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

Improvements to the backend are where more creativity and assessment are required, because a real-deal player will require moving a real-deal player in return (which shuffles things). Zaitsev started to round into form this season, stilted a run as it was. I am not entirely ready to cut bait there unless a better opportunity lands in our laps.

I'd love to see Martin Marincin get a fresh new chance with the Leafs. He has looked good with Zaitsev in the past.

This honestly would not bother me, but probably isn't Babcock's cup of tea:
Rielly - Gardiner
Marincin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick

I will take this post as an invitation to debate further in a respectful manner.

You're an absolutely bananas crazy person on the defense lineup you posted there. 

I don't think Nylander ends up at centre, especially after the past 7 games.  And really, Aaltonen might fill the 4th line spot, or maybe not.  I think he'd be a backup plan, at best.

I'm all for going after Tavares and Thornton, but I think that's a long shot.  I'm more thinking of Spezza as a 3rd line centre, assuming we strike out on those 2 guys.

Where we'll agree is that if they want a quality RHD, it'll cost us a very good roster player.  I'd be fine with that, as long as his name isn't Auston or Mitch.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 01:14:20 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.
And 7.5 million in cap hit. No thanks.

Cap space really isn't an issue next season:  https://capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

I'm looking at low asset cost options to fill the 3rd line centre job, but with some offensive upside.
I realize that but Spezza is hardly an offensive guy going by last year's stats.
78 GP   8G    18A    26PTS   -12 .... I can't see the Leafs paying 7.5 million for that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 27, 2018, 01:24:57 PM
I like the idea of getting Tavares. The best defense is a good offense sort of thing. The defense still needs improvement, but maybe the improvement they would need if they signed Tavares would actually be available.

I also like the idea of getting a top guy like Doughty, but I don't know how realistic that is. So if the options are stay the course with the current roster give or take, sign Tavares, or lament not being able to land a top 1 defenseman. My pick is easy.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on April 27, 2018, 01:25:45 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

I think Aaltonen and Bozak may not be Babcock's cup of tea on the 4th line.  My bet is he wants a Plekanec type- strong defensively, strong in the dot (Bozak does fill this but nothing else), and good PKer.

Now, if we get a 3rd line C that can fill that PK/defensive/dot criteria, then sure I can see Aaltonen being 4C (and Nylander staying on RW).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 01:26:58 PM
I will take this post as an invitation to debate further in a respectful manner.

You're an absolutely bananas crazy person on the defense lineup you posted there. 

I don't think Nylander ends up at centre, especially after the past 7 games.  And really, Aaltonen might fill the 4th line spot, or maybe not.  I think he'd be a backup plan, at best.

I'm all for going after Tavares and Thornton, but I think that's a long shot.  I'm more thinking of Spezza as a 3rd line centre, assuming we strike out on those 2 guys.

Where we'll agree is that if they want a quality RHD, it'll cost us a very good roster player.  I'd be fine with that, as long as his name isn't Auston or Mitch.

Thank you for accepting my invitation to debate further.

Thank you as well for noticing that I'm absolutely crazy bananas. I think Zaitsev is at his best when he's the go option, rather than the stop option. This season, the entire right side was assigned the 'stop' role. I know Zaitsev prides himself for defensive acumen, but he's really a good deal more effective when he's not playing as 'safe', whereas Marincin is the exact opposite and is very effective at denying zone entries (which is what Zaitsev gives away like Halloween candy 2 weeks after). This group has 5 PK options (MM, NZ, MR, TD) and 5 PP options (MR, JG, TD, CC, NZ).

I think our front office knows better than to gauge a player on the performance in 7 games vs one team. Nylander was more than adequate during the season filling in for Matthews. A right shot centre also makes it easier to put Hyman back on the right side, which has additional dividends (Babcock likes the fetch guy to be on the off-wing of the centre because he doesn't need to puck as much).

Without an outside addition:
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Hyman - Matthews - Kapanen
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
? - Aaltonen - Leivo
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 01:27:11 PM
I realize that but Spezza is hardly an offensive guy going by last year's stats.
78 GP   8G    18A    26PTS   -12 .... I can't see the Leafs paying 7.5 million for that.

He scored at a 60-point pace last season though, so it's not like he's that removed from being an offensive threat. This season his most common linemates were Mattias Janmark, Devin Shore, Brett Ritchie, Remi Elie, who I assume are all hockey players but don't hold me to that.

His positive possession numbers and crazy low shooting/on-ice shooting percentages would lead me to believe that there was a lot of bad luck involved this season. He'd be a good bounce back candidate next season. If the Leafs strike out on Tavares and Thornton, and Babcock still prefers Nylander on the wing, and Spezza comes cheap with maybe some salary retention involved, I'd definitely go for it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 01:28:16 PM
Thank you as well for noticing that I'm absolutely crazy bananas. I think Zaitsev is at his best when he's the go option, rather than the stop option. This season, the entire right side was assigned the 'stop' role. I know Zaitsev prides himself for defensive acumen, but he's really a good deal more effective when he's not playing as 'safe', whereas Marincin is the exact opposite and is very effective at denying zone entries (which is what Zaitsev gives away like Halloween candy 2 weeks after). This group has 5 PK options (MM, NZ, MR, TD) and 5 PP options (MR, JG, TD, CC, NZ).

This is coming from somebody who used to be probably his biggest fan here... stop trying to make Marincin happen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 01:29:28 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

I think Aaltonen and Bozak may not be Babcock's cup of tea on the 4th line.  My bet is he wants a Plekanec type- strong defensively, strong in the dot (Bozak does fill this but nothing else), and good PKer.

Now, if we get a 3rd line C that can fill that PK/defensive/dot criteria, then sure I can see Aaltonen being 4C (and Nylander staying on RW).

No doubt about that. Which is why I'm hoping Babcock spends a lot of time watching the Marlies work this post-season. Granted, the Marlies' depth is a couple steps up on the rest of the AHL. One of the first things Dubas did in the Soo was play a skilled and speedy 4th line to capitalize on traditional thinking.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 01:29:55 PM
This is coming from somebody who used to be probably his biggest fan here... stop trying to make Marincin happen.

Where did your faith go, friend?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 01:31:37 PM
Where did your faith go, friend?

I still think that he'd be a fine bottom pairing/PK guy, but 65-25-2 suggests that that ship has definitely sailed here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on April 27, 2018, 01:32:58 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

I think Aaltonen and Bozak may not be Babcock's cup of tea on the 4th line.  My bet is he wants a Plekanec type- strong defensively, strong in the dot (Bozak does fill this but nothing else), and good PKer.

Now, if we get a 3rd line C that can fill that PK/defensive/dot criteria, then sure I can see Aaltonen being 4C (and Nylander staying on RW).

No doubt about that. Which is why I'm hoping Babcock spends a lot of time watching the Marlies work this post-season. Granted, the Marlies' depth is a couple steps up on the rest of the AHL. One of the first things Dubas did in the Soo was play a skilled and speedy 4th line to capitalize on traditional thinking.

Speed and skill vs brawn is not my argument.  Being defensively responsible and good on the PK generally means speed in today's NHL.  Its why Gauthier is never really going to be an option- unless his skating takes another huge leap.

Now, has Aaltonen improved on the PK/defensive aspects of his game enough to fill that role?  I don't watch enough Marlies game to know. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 01:36:48 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

Improvements to the backend are where more creativity and assessment are required, because a real-deal player will require moving a real-deal player in return (which shuffles things). Zaitsev started to round into form this season, stilted a run as it was. I am not entirely ready to cut bait there unless a better opportunity lands in our laps.

I'd love to see Martin Marincin get a fresh new chance with the Leafs. He has looked good with Zaitsev in the past.

This honestly would not bother me, but probably isn't Babcock's cup of tea:
Rielly - Gardiner
Marincin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 01:48:42 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

Improvements to the backend are where more creativity and assessment are required, because a real-deal player will require moving a real-deal player in return (which shuffles things). Zaitsev started to round into form this season, stilted a run as it was. I am not entirely ready to cut bait there unless a better opportunity lands in our laps.

I'd love to see Martin Marincin get a fresh new chance with the Leafs. He has looked good with Zaitsev in the past.

This honestly would not bother me, but probably isn't Babcock's cup of tea:
Rielly - Gardiner
Marincin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.
Agree. We need a change back there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on April 27, 2018, 01:58:44 PM
Our trade chips:
On D one of Gardiner/Dermott/Reilly and at W one of Kappi/Johnsson and picks.

Potential return (I tried to include only "realistic" targets, expiring contracts or teams looking for a shakeup):

Car: Faulk
Dal: Methot
Edm: Russell
LA: Doughty/Martinez/Muzzin
Min: Dumba (doubt it but maybe budget constraints?)
MTL: Petry/Weber (post firing of their GM)
NSH: Ellis (dream on)
Ott: Karlsson/Ceci
Phi: MacDonald
Pit: Oleksiak
SJ: Martin/Braun/Dillon
STL: Gunnarsson/Bouwmeester (actually think B is a fairly realistic option and the type of D Tor is lacking)
VAN: Edler/Del Zotto

Crossed out are guys the Leafs should not be considering, as they're not an upgrade defensively on the guys already available to them - and, in some cases, would be a downgrade.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 02:01:55 PM
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.

Cool. Tell me why you believe that :) that is, if you have the time and want to elaborate.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 02:04:22 PM
Where did your faith go, friend?

I still think that he'd be a fine bottom pairing/PK guy, but 65-25-2 suggests that that ship has definitely sailed here.

I've been looking at this a bit... is it your locker combination?

I know it's games played.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 27, 2018, 02:12:29 PM
God and I both love Martin Marincin.  But ... no.

He and I also don't believe in the current blueline.  (Don't question God, herman, He told me He doesn't like it.)

OK, I'll give this lineup thing a spin, using my earlier suggestion of dealing Kadri coupled with trading Gardiner, not because "he sucks!" but because with have two other similar LHs in Rielly and Dermott.


Hyman - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Tavares (or Bozak/Spezza etc.) - Marner
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
from Kadri or Gardiner trade - Aaltonen/Moore - Leivo or new

Rielly / RHD from Kadri trade
Dermott / RHD from Gardiner trade
Hainsey / Zaitsev
spares
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 02:19:14 PM
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.

Cool. Tell me why you believe that :) that is, if you have the time and want to elaborate.
The answer is simple this group's play the last two years. Current Group + Carrick + Marincin - Polak - Hainsey = still suck. How do you like those advanced analytics?

I feel we lean to heavily on offensive type Dman and need to improve our  defensive type Dman. I will admit improved play by Zaitsev will go along way.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 02:35:24 PM
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.

Cool. Tell me why you believe that :) that is, if you have the time and want to elaborate.
The answer is simple this group's play the last two years. Current Group + Carrick + Marincin - Polak - Hainsey = still suck. How do you like those advanced analytics?

I feel we lean to heavily on offensive type Dman and need to improve our  defensive type Dman. I will admit improved play by Zaitsev will go along way.

What sucks about them? Their results? How they look?

I'm afraid all I was able to glean from your elaboration was why you were interested in some of the defensemen you had listed earlier.

It would help me understand better if you described the player you want to see on the team.

I'll start. These are the elements I want in our defenders.
1) skating: if you can't skate, bye! forwards, backwards, lateral moves, pivots. Is the skating efficient, or are you working against your own body and having to work extra hard, thus affecting stamina?
2) puck handling: can you buy yourself and supporting forwards a bit of extra time? if not, do you have another option that can cover for that? (see 1)
3) decision making: do you see your options well? do you use the right angles and speeds to cut off plays before they begin, or extend possession?
4) good at getting the puck back: I don't particularly care how, but do you win possession for your team on a regular basis?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on April 27, 2018, 02:43:02 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.

I can get behind this idea. I wonder if we could somehow get a decent pick to come back with him? That fact that's he's only got one more year is perfect. I wonder what other players are in that situation that teams would like to get rid of?

Otherwise, I like getting Rick Nash and think Nash-Kadri-Kapanen could be a great shut-down line with real offensive potential.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 03:04:20 PM
I wonder what LA does...I'm not sure that there'd be a better time to try and get out of Brown's contact.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 04:41:59 PM
I wonder what LA does...I'm not sure that there'd be a better time to try and get out of Brown's contact.
5.8 mill for 4 more years. Durable guy and had 61 points last year but the 3 previous weren't good as he averaged 30 points. Tough competitor but I think we're set on the wings tho.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 27, 2018, 04:49:54 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.

I can get behind this idea. I wonder if we could somehow get a decent pick to come back with him? That fact that's he's only got one more year is perfect. I wonder what other players are in that situation that teams would like to get rid of?

Otherwise, I like getting Rick Nash and think Nash-Kadri-Kapanen could be a great shut-down line with real offensive potential.

I really like the idea of that line. It would also free up Marner to play with Matthews and Nylander to centre the 3rd line, if need be. Guess it depends on the $ Nash wants. I like him but I feel he might have to be a fair bit overpaid to bring him here.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 06:05:10 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.

I can get behind this idea. I wonder if we could somehow get a decent pick to come back with him? That fact that's he's only got one more year is perfect. I wonder what other players are in that situation that teams would like to get rid of?

Otherwise, I like getting Rick Nash and think Nash-Kadri-Kapanen could be a great shut-down line with real offensive potential.
I'd take Spezza for 1 year over Nash for anything over 1 year. I'm not a fan of Nash. He had the chance to come here before and he didn't want to. I believe it was when he was traded out of Columbus.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: gunnar36 on April 28, 2018, 09:10:54 AM
I would be kicking the tires on Coburn from Lightning.
They are loaded on the back end with guys signed thru next year and you might be able to pry him away.

Otherwise a guy like Jake Dotchin may be available for little return as he currently can't get into lineup. He would add toughness in place of Polak.

Andrej Sustr is a capable dman and a Ufa. He's also 6'7", and able to defend well with his size and reach....might be another good 3rd pair option and PK guy with Hainsy. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on April 28, 2018, 09:32:55 AM
I would be kicking the tires on Coburn from Lightning.
They are loaded on the back end with guys signed thru next year and you might be able to pry him away.

Otherwise a guy like Jake Dotchin may be available for little return as he currently can't get into lineup. He would add toughness in place of Polak.

Andrej Sustr is a capable dman and a Ufa. He's also 6'7", and able to defend well with his size and reach....might be another good 3rd pair option and PK guy with Hainsy.
Isn't Dotchin that dirty ass player who likes to injure Leafs? Knee on knees and stuff?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bender on April 28, 2018, 09:44:35 AM
I would be kicking the tires on Coburn from Lightning.
They are loaded on the back end with guys signed thru next year and you might be able to pry him away.

Otherwise a guy like Jake Dotchin may be available for little return as he currently can't get into lineup. He would add toughness in place of Polak.

Andrej Sustr is a capable dman and a Ufa. He's also 6'7", and able to defend well with his size and reach....might be another good 3rd pair option and PK guy with Hainsy.
Wasn't Coburn crap even in his Philly years?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: gunnar36 on April 28, 2018, 09:53:40 AM
I would be kicking the tires on Coburn from Lightning.
They are loaded on the back end with guys signed thru next year and you might be able to pry him away.

Otherwise a guy like Jake Dotchin may be available for little return as he currently can't get into lineup. He would add toughness in place of Polak.

Andrej Sustr is a capable dman and a Ufa. He's also 6'7", and able to defend well with his size and reach....might be another good 3rd pair option and PK guy with Hainsy.
Wasn't Coburn crap even in his Philly years?

Obviously, not in the eyes of Tampa who gave up a fair bit to aquire him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 28, 2018, 02:08:32 PM
OK, I'll give this lineup thing a spin, using my earlier suggestion of dealing Kadri coupled with trading Gardiner, not because "he sucks!" but because with have two other similar LHs in Rielly and Dermott.

Hyman - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Tavares (or Bozak/Spezza etc.) - Marner
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
from Kadri or Gardiner trade - Aaltonen/Moore - Leivo or new

Rielly / RHD from Kadri trade
Dermott / RHD from Gardiner trade
Hainsey / Zaitsev
spares

I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

Get Tavares though and I'd be happy to send Nylander to southern California or Carolina or Nashville.

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis
Gardiner - Dermott
Hainsey - Zaitsev Liljegren
Title: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 28, 2018, 02:16:36 PM
If you want a current top pair dman itíll likely cost one of the triplets or multiple picks and prospects.

The best bet is probably fishing around the fringes of NHL teams who have someone with real potential stashed in the minors/Europe due to a lack of opportunity on their big club.

There is also the option to take a RFA that a parent club canít pay a raise.

At that point a talented winger prospect and a good pick might shake something of real value loose.

Looking at other teams bottom pairing players as a solution is probably not the answer.

Nashvilleís #5 and #6 are horrific.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 28, 2018, 11:36:27 PM
OK, I'll give this lineup thing a spin, using my earlier suggestion of dealing Kadri coupled with trading Gardiner, not because "he sucks!" but because with have two other similar LHs in Rielly and Dermott.

Hyman - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Tavares (or Bozak/Spezza etc.) - Marner
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
from Kadri or Gardiner trade - Aaltonen/Moore - Leivo or new

Rielly / RHD from Kadri trade
Dermott / RHD from Gardiner trade
Hainsey / Zaitsev
spares

I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

Get Tavares though and I'd be happy to send Nylander to southern California or Carolina or Nashville.

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis
Gardiner - Dermott
Hainsey - Zaitsev Liljegren

Kadri + another non-34/29/16 asset could very well bring a RHD that would be on our top pair.  I never said it would be Kadri alone.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 29, 2018, 10:17:01 AM

How is everyone in Edmonton so dumb?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 29, 2018, 12:26:14 PM
I would marry this article if I could.

https://theathletic.com/333126/2018/04/29/maple-leafs-path-to-improvement-includes-obvious-lessons-from-bruins-series-plus-a-dose-of-perspective/

Quote
To help put things in perspective, hereís the list of NHL defencemen who led their team in Controlled Zone Exit%, put up over 50 points and had a positive impact on shots and scoring chances relative to their teammates while playing above-average competition:

Drew Doughty
Erik Karlsson
Roman Josi
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jake Gardiner

Thatís it.

...

At the end of the day, Toronto was a top-10 team that ran into a top-five team in the first round and still pushed them to seven games despite missing Nazem Kadri for three games. They have an excellent young core, tons of cap flexibility this off-season and a wealth of young talent ready to step into bigger roles next year.

The future is looking bright for the Leafs, as long as they rationally address their needs this summer.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 29, 2018, 02:33:49 PM
I would marry this article if I could.

https://theathletic.com/333126/2018/04/29/maple-leafs-path-to-improvement-includes-obvious-lessons-from-bruins-series-plus-a-dose-of-perspective/

Quote
To help put things in perspective, hereís the list of NHL defencemen who led their team in Controlled Zone Exit%, put up over 50 points and had a positive impact on shots and scoring chances relative to their teammates while playing above-average competition:

Drew Doughty
Erik Karlsson
Roman Josi
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jake Gardiner

Thatís it.

...

At the end of the day, Toronto was a top-10 team that ran into a top-five team in the first round and still pushed them to seven games despite missing Nazem Kadri for three games. They have an excellent young core, tons of cap flexibility this off-season and a wealth of young talent ready to step into bigger roles next year.

The future is looking bright for the Leafs, as long as they rationally address their needs this summer.

I think there's a good living to be made writing articles reassuring Leafs fans that all will be well.  Eventually.   ;)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 29, 2018, 03:19:49 PM
I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

[snip]

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis

[snip]

Kadri + another non-34/29/16 asset could very well bring a RHD that would be on our top pair.  I never said it would be Kadri alone.

I guess it depends on what we mean by "top pairing RHD."

The names I'm thinking of move the needle -- they're substantial upgrades. For them, you'd need to trade a dollar for a dollar.

That's different than "a RHD that would be on our top pair" which describes, well, Zaitsev. I'm sure you're aiming higher than that though. Folks keep mentioning Tanev as a meaningful upgrade -- a player who not only "would" be on the top pair but also maybe even should be -- and perhaps Kadri, a talented young winger, and picks gets something like that...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 29, 2018, 08:10:27 PM
I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

[snip]

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis

[snip]

Kadri + another non-34/29/16 asset could very well bring a RHD that would be on our top pair.  I never said it would be Kadri alone.

I guess it depends on what we mean by "top pairing RHD."

The names I'm thinking of move the needle -- they're substantial upgrades. For them, you'd need to trade a dollar for a dollar.

That's different than "a RHD that would be on our top pair" which describes, well, Zaitsev. I'm sure you're aiming higher than that though. Folks keep mentioning Tanev as a meaningful upgrade -- a player who not only "would" be on the top pair but also maybe even should be -- and perhaps Kadri, a talented young winger, and picks gets something like that...

Yes, that's exactly my meaning. Kadri + Brown ++, perhaps.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on April 29, 2018, 08:23:57 PM
What we're trading Kadri? We better sign Tavares first
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 29, 2018, 08:28:47 PM
What we're trading Kadri?

See, the Leafs didn't trade JVR. So now, when people try to come up with credible trades to include their defense they have to do things like include Kadri( a 30 goal scorer locked into a reasonable contract) in the absence of the sort of assets they could have had at no appreciable downside to the team.

This is the sort of thing a mismanaged team does/has to do if they want to address their issues.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 29, 2018, 10:57:07 PM
Not trading JVR by all accounts is a mistake, who knows what was offered, but this team is far from mismanaged.
As for Kadri leaving, not happening unless they sign another centre.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 30, 2018, 12:41:39 AM
As for Kadri leaving, not happening unless they sign another centre.

Which is fine enough to say but then if they don't add another C then we're back to the reality of them not having much in the way of assets to move for a significant upgrade on D that wouldn't ultimately be zero-sum. And even if they do add another C Kadri is still a valuable piece they wouldn't have to move.

So, again, being as mismanaged as they were this year will put them in a lousy situation this offseason that was largely avoidable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 30, 2018, 08:37:35 AM
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 30, 2018, 08:44:45 AM
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival. So keeping a 36-goal scorer for a playoff run and letting them walk in the offseason isn't exactly a crazy decision. Sure, it didn't work out, but I don't see how that's blatant mismanagement.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 30, 2018, 10:37:55 AM
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival. So keeping a 36-goal scorer for a playoff run and letting them walk in the offseason isn't exactly a crazy decision. Sure, it didn't work out, but I don't see how that's blatant mismanagement.

No matter what he did in the playoffs, there would be a school of thought that says trading him was the best option. Not in a direct 'we can use JVR to improve our defense' but in a total asset management capacity. He could have been traded for something, instead, he walks for nothing. If that something was a third-round pick then, ya, better to keep him and let him walk for free.

Trading him wouldn't have been with the mindset of improving the team now, it would have been asset management. Knowing what we know now and assuming he walks in free agency, would you go back and trade him for a 1st round pick and a prospect? Maybe that deal, or a similar deal, wasn't available, that's another potential reason to not trade him for sure.

I also don't like the term mismanage in this case, but I do think they got a bit greedy with this year's playoff run. But again, that assumes there was a trade to be made. I still think the 'we give up' message that would misconstrued by fans and possibly players was a factor too.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 30, 2018, 10:44:10 AM
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

If you're handcuffed into a bad decision by a good season, maybe you're mismanaging public, or player, perception? We don't hear as much about building for a future of perpetual contender status anymore, which I find odd.

Maybe they're not 'mismanaged' -- save that for signing Clarkson or trading for Bolland -- but managed in a cowardly, over-cautious, unimaginative, and short-sighted fashion.

Trading JVR, even without anything that immediately improves the defense coming back, was the right move. The Leafs will need to have lots of talented depth on ELCs to be contenders, and they don't get that through poor asset management.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 30, 2018, 10:51:45 AM
The failure to trade JVR is a sign that Shanahan isn't as fully committed to the long-term plan as he says he is publicly.  Three years ago it was, "there will be pain."  And there was.  But what they should have kept emphasizing is, "there must be patience."  That mantra got reduced to lip service after we hit the AM34 jackpot.

The idea that a team that had never won a playoff round was somehow this year going to bull its way past some combo of BOS or TBL was fairly magical thinking.  No doubt other factors, all of them already discussed here, went into the decision to retain JVR.  But at the root, failing to trade him was a failure to follow the supposed Plan.  And that's the same mistake we've been making since forever.

By all objective accounts, this Leafs team was not considered likely to go deep.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on April 30, 2018, 10:53:13 AM
No matter what he did in the playoffs, there would be a school of thought that says trading him was the best option. Not in a direct 'we can use JVR to improve our defense' but in a total asset management capacity. He could have been traded for something, instead, he walks for nothing. If that something was a third-round pick then, ya, better to keep him and let him walk for free.

Trading him wouldn't have been with the mindset of improving the team now, it would have been asset management. Knowing what we know now and assuming he walks in free agency, would you go back and trade him for a 1st round pick and a prospect? Maybe that deal, or a similar deal, wasn't available, that's another potential reason to not trade him for sure.

I also don't like the term mismanage in this case, but I do think they got a bit greedy with this year's playoff run. But again, that assumes there was a trade to be made. I still think the 'we give up' message that would misconstrued by fans and possibly players was a factor too.

Put me in that school. I'm disappointed they didn't trade him for the highest offer, regardless of how low it was. And I don't believe for a second there weren't interested teams.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 30, 2018, 10:59:32 AM
The failure to trade JVR is a sign that Shanahan isn't as fully committed to the long-term plan as he says he is publicly.  Three years ago it was, "there will be pain."  And there was.  But what they should have kept emphasizing is, "there must be patience."  That mantra got reduced to lip service after we hit the AM34 jackpot.

It depends on what the front office considers long term value, and I think it's pretty clear they highly value playoff experience (even when, and maybe especially when, you get burned). Through their lens, it can be argued they were looking short-term on this season, but long-term for the development of their core.

They should have traded JvR two seasons ago but the injury during the tank drive derailed that opportunity and then nothing really landed in offseasons thereafter. After a certain cut-off, there was more value in keeping JvR/Bozak to 'insulate' (haha) the kids.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 30, 2018, 11:40:20 AM
As for Kadri leaving, not happening unless they sign another centre.

Which is fine enough to say but then if they don't add another C then we're back to the reality of them not having much in the way of assets to move for a significant upgrade on D that wouldn't ultimately be zero-sum. And even if they do add another C Kadri is still a valuable piece they wouldn't have to move.

So, again, being as mismanaged as they were this year will put them in a lousy situation this offseason that was largely avoidable.

If I could just jump in here, the Leafs are also short a 2nd round pick for Plec.

And I think it was pretty universal around here that doing that made no sense if they didn't address the D-man problem...and they didn't end up addressing the d-man problem.

Even at the trade deadline, most pundits had them as underdogs against either TB or Boston.  Understanding where the weaknesses were, they should have addressed those if they really wanted to take a run.  Keeping JVR and the other expiring contracts was only a smart option if they addressed those weaknesses. Instead, they decided to burn a high pick on a depth centreman, keep all the UFA contracts, and not address their biggest need.

I said it at the time, the deadline activity of the Leafs was mismanaged, and now they've got to act from a position of less-strength than they would have had if they'd done what most of us wanted done.  You either go for it, or you don't, but the Leafs tried to go down the middle, and the result is pretty much what I thought it would be.

Now the Leafs are left with UFA's walking for nothing, and down a 2nd round pick, and have the same weaknesses to address, plus the holes to fill of the departing UFAs.

I can't imagine this result is what was "planned" for, but it's the result that first came to mind to me when the deadline buzzer went at 3pm on Feb 26th.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 30, 2018, 11:54:18 AM
Lou Gone per @LeafsPR
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 30, 2018, 12:25:15 PM
The failure to trade JVR is a sign that Shanahan isn't as fully committed to the long-term plan as he says he is publicly.  Three years ago it was, "there will be pain."  And there was.  But what they should have kept emphasizing is, "there must be patience."  That mantra got reduced to lip service after we hit the AM34 jackpot.

It depends on what the front office considers long term value, and I think it's pretty clear they highly value playoff experience (even when, and maybe especially when, you get burned). Through their lens, it can be argued they were looking short-term on this season, but long-term for the development of their core.

They should have traded JvR two seasons ago but the injury during the tank drive derailed that opportunity and then nothing really landed in offseasons thereafter. After a certain cut-off, there was more value in keeping JvR/Bozak to 'insulate' (haha) the kids.

If this is the reality then all I can say is that I hope the Dubas Eraģ means the end of this kind of Fancy Dan psychologizing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 30, 2018, 01:48:10 PM
I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset

For the record, they had a long time to trade JVR. I don't think the criticism here is just "they didn't trade him at the deadline" but rather that they never traded him despite having two whole years where it would have made sense to.

to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR

Not really. Unless you're going to make the argument that for some reason the return on JVR would have been, effectively, the lowest return in history for a 30 goal scorer as opposed a reasonable median return then it's still better than nothing.

, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

At the deadline? Sure. But, again, A) I'm not saying the only time they should have dealt him was at the deadline and B) I'm not saying they needed to make a direct "JVR for a defenseman" trade. They could trade JVR for picks/prospects and then hang onto those valuable picks/prospects until a suitable defenseman became available. There wasn't a limited window of time here.

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival.

And what? If, say, JVR had been dealt to a Western conference team then the downside is...that somehow people would regret it if the team that was already a longshot to make it out of the first round somehow made it to the Stanley Cup finals and just happened to play the team they traded him to? Or to a Metro team they made it to the ECF against?

I'm pretty critical of the Leafs management here but I think presenting that as a serious issue that they considered and let influence their "Should we get anything for JVR" decision makes them look worse than anything i'm accusing them of.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: A Weekend at Bernier's on April 30, 2018, 02:38:14 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 30, 2018, 02:47:55 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: A Weekend at Bernier's on April 30, 2018, 02:56:06 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.

Thanks, Nik.  Your assessment of the Leafs mishandling of their pending UFAs, to me, is bang on and relevant here.  And while I suppose there is somewhat of an argument to be made in the Leafs' case - ie. playoff run and all - the same can't be said for the current incarnation of the Coyotes.  My limited experience of watching OEL notwithstanding, I do like the player and left-handed shot aside I think would fit in just about perfectly.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 30, 2018, 03:02:28 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.
Hainsey is a left shot and was our top RD this season....And yeah it wasn't ideal being a lefty but it did force Babs to use him there. Gord Miller, on Leafs Lunch, said a similar thing today regarding his favourites like Komarov, Polak. The GM can somewhat dictate who he wants to play by taking away his options by removing the favs from the team.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 30, 2018, 03:08:20 PM

Fair point re: Hainsey but the way I recall it was that he was fairly used to playing his offside. I'm sure you could acquire any LHD and ask them to do that but I'm not sure all of them would be equally proficient there.

Also, I think you'd agree, that whoever eventually is the GM making those decisions here it would be a pretty bold move to force that sort of thing on Babcock as one of their opening gambits.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 30, 2018, 03:32:34 PM

Fair point re: Hainsey but the way I recall it was that he was fairly used to playing his offside. I'm sure you could acquire any LHD and ask them to do that but I'm not sure all of them would be equally proficient there.

Also, I think you'd agree, that whoever eventually is the GM making those decisions here it would be a pretty bold move to force that sort of thing on Babcock as one of their opening gambits.
Definitely agree it would be bold but ultimately it has to be his choice. Would make for some interesting board meetings tho! I do get what Miller was saying tho. I think it's easier now that some of Babs' favs are UFAs. If Dubas doesn't like Leo, he simply doesn't bring him back. I think the best thing is Dubas knows the Marlies inside and out and probably the ECHL guys to, as he's been watching them all year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 30, 2018, 06:09:48 PM
I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset

For the record, they had a long time to trade JVR. I don't think the criticism here is just "they didn't trade him at the deadline" but rather that they never traded him despite having two whole years where it would have made sense to.

to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR

Not really. Unless you're going to make the argument that for some reason the return on JVR would have been, effectively, the lowest return in history for a 30 goal scorer as opposed a reasonable median return then it's still better than nothing.

, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

At the deadline? Sure. But, again, A) I'm not saying the only time they should have dealt him was at the deadline and B) I'm not saying they needed to make a direct "JVR for a defenseman" trade. They could trade JVR for picks/prospects and then hang onto those valuable picks/prospects until a suitable defenseman became available. There wasn't a limited window of time here.

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival.

And what? If, say, JVR had been dealt to a Western conference team then the downside is...that somehow people would regret it if the team that was already a longshot to make it out of the first round somehow made it to the Stanley Cup finals and just happened to play the team they traded him to? Or to a Metro team they made it to the ECF against?

I'm pretty critical of the Leafs management here but I think presenting that as a serious issue that they considered and let influence their "Should we get anything for JVR" decision makes them look worse than anything i'm accusing them of.

Sorry about this large post but I actually don't know how to break up the quotes and reply to them individually  :-\

Just to clarify, I was not only in the 'move JVR this deadline' camp but also in the 'move him two years ago' one. Maybe it's just when I hear the use of mismanagement I begin to think of the Komisarek, Liles, Lupul, Phaneuf and Clarkson deals of recent years, and the crazy amount of bungling the years preceding those. Anyway I guess until these misfires or missed opportunities begin to pile up, I'm a bit wary of throwing out too much criticism on a situation that though ultimately mishandled, wasn't too egregious imo. It's not like they missed they playoffs by a long shot and still kept the Sedins  :-X
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 30, 2018, 06:32:30 PM
You can break up the quote however you want using the quote tags
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 30, 2018, 07:27:45 PM
Just to clarify, I was not only in the 'move JVR this deadline' camp but also in the 'move him two years ago' one. Maybe it's just when I hear the use of mismanagement I begin to think of the Komisarek, Liles, Lupul, Phaneuf and Clarkson deals of recent years, and the crazy amount of bungling the years preceding those.

There's no right or wrong, really, with how one might individually categorize how the team's being run but personally I feel ok with saying they weren't very well run last year while leaving the possibility open that they may be well run again in the future. I don't think we need to lock ourselves into binaries of good or bad management. Like I said, I think last year the team got ahead of itself and thought they could start skipping important steps on the road to competing seriously. Hopefully getting knocked out of the first round(and certain people not being there anymore) will take the team back to more of the smart/creative thinking we've seen in the past.

Anyway I guess until these misfires or missed opportunities begin to pile up, I'm a bit wary of throwing out too much criticism on a situation that though ultimately mishandled, wasn't too egregious imo. It's not like they missed they playoffs by a long shot and still kept the Sedins  :-X

I very much understand looking at what a reasonable return might have been for JVR, say a mid-late 1st and prospect, and saying that not having either of those things isn't a catastrophe but I do think that's a little bit like not really caring about your credit card bill until payment's due.

The reason I brought it up in this thread is that with a few looming questions for the team in terms of improvement from where they are to where they want to be and internal options looking limited to say the least the Leafs are in sort of a tricky position. In looking at how to add a top tier D or improvements up the middle we're not saying "Look at all of these surplus assets from dealing pending UFA's" but rather "Maybe they'd take Kadri and some draft picks".

It's only when some of those moves actually get made(or not) and we see the resulting holes on the roster they leave that the real opportunity cost of not moving JVR and his pals will really become apparent.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on May 01, 2018, 02:59:23 AM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.

I hope GM Dubas starts every Babcock meeting with an hour long presentation from the stat nerd department that demonstrates Rielly or Dermott on his 'wrong' side better than any of Zaitsev, Hainsey, Polak, or whatever other plug the coach has fall in love with next year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 01, 2018, 11:43:44 AM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.

I hope GM Dubas starts every Babcock meeting with an hour long presentation from the stat nerd department that demonstrates Rielly or Dermott on his 'wrong' side better than any of Zaitsev, Hainsey, Polak, or whatever other plug the coach has fall in love with next year.
Dubas can do this by simply not signing the plug in the first place.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 01, 2018, 12:52:31 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.

I hope GM Dubas starts every Babcock meeting with an hour long presentation from the stat nerd department that demonstrates Rielly or Dermott on his 'wrong' side better than any of Zaitsev, Hainsey, Polak, or whatever other plug the coach has fall in love with next year.
Dubas can do this by simply not signing the plug in the first place.

I wonder if Babcock can hand out "personal service contracts" at his own discretion.  ;D
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 01, 2018, 01:15:53 PM
I wonder if Babcock can hand out "personal service contracts" at his own discretion.  ;D

Only if he pays for them out of his own pocket... which I mean he could probably afford to do.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 05, 2018, 12:14:07 PM
Anybody keep up on Stastny?
Would it be worthwhile to sign him and turn around and use Kadri as a trade chip?

Example:
Sign Stastny, say 4 yrs at 5M
Trade Kadri to Nashville for Ellis
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 05, 2018, 12:26:23 PM
Anybody keep up on Stastny?
Would it be worthwhile to sign him and turn around and use Kadri as a trade chip?

Example:
Sign Stastny, say 4 yrs at 5M
Trade Kadri to Nashville for Ellis

I'm not saying he's worth it but I'd be pretty surprised if his AAV doesn't start with a 6.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 05, 2018, 12:52:21 PM

Hmmm. It's funny if Carlson wasn't coming off a crazy career high season I might have been more interested. The money he's going to get off this one year though will be insane.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 05, 2018, 03:59:31 PM
I'm not saying he's worth it but I'd be pretty surprised if his AAV doesn't start with a 6.

That's why I put a 4 year term.  He's 32, so I was hoping the term could get his AAV down.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 08, 2018, 08:53:14 AM
If Lou goes to the Island, how long do you think it will be until Josh Ho-Sang is freed up? Would you acquire him?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 08, 2018, 09:47:26 AM
So here's a trade idea... with John Carlson being so instrumental in Washington's success this year, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, I wonder if it forces them to re-sign him. In which case, they would need to clear salary to make room. With that in mind...

Zaitsev+ for Niskanen and Orpik

Niskanen has 3 years left on his contract at $5.75mil and Orpik has 1 year left at $5.5mil. Orpik is a clear salary dump, while Niskanen is pretty valuable to the team (he plays on their shutdown pairing with Orlov). But in this situation they'd basically be picking Carlson over Niskanen.

So Washington opens up $6.75mil in cap space here and gets a cheaper/younger replacement for Niskanen. Zaitsev also fits into the whole Russian-vibe that Washington has going on. Like I've said every time I bring up trading Zaitsev... this obviously relies on the Caps viewing Zaitsev more like Babcock does as opposed to how I do, which is probably a fair assumption.

Not sure what the "+" would be in this case, but I don't think it would be something significant (i.e. not a 1st/Kapanen/Johnsson/Brown).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on May 08, 2018, 10:17:12 AM
If Lou goes to the Island, how long do you think it will be until Josh Ho-Sang is freed up? Would you acquire him?

I'd pass. Has talent but too many question marks there.
 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 08, 2018, 11:24:08 AM
If Lou goes to the Island, how long do you think it will be until Josh Ho-Sang is freed up? Would you acquire him?

Worth the risk if you can get him cheap.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 08, 2018, 02:53:46 PM

He had the exact same knee injuries two years in a row? Ok... maybe I'm not that interested anymore.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on May 08, 2018, 02:58:47 PM

He had the exact same knee injuries two years in a row? Ok... maybe I'm not that interested anymore.
Sharks smarks... you're as good as signed in T dot O dot.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 08, 2018, 03:13:17 PM
I'd pass. Has talent but too many question marks there.

Worth the risk if you can get him cheap.

Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 08, 2018, 03:23:59 PM
I'd pass. Has talent but too many question marks there.

Worth the risk if you can get him cheap.

Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.

Martin for Ho-Sang. Boom.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 08, 2018, 03:27:30 PM
Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.

Same. Not interested in giving up any of the better prospects for him. I'd even be leery about a 2nd round pick, as his numbers in the AHL and his brief NHL stints don't exactly jump out as impressive. But 3rd round pick or later? Absolutely.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 08, 2018, 03:30:23 PM
Martin for Ho-Sang. Boom.

(http://www.paraserbella.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/happy-cry-gif-16.gif)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 08, 2018, 05:35:04 PM
Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.

Same. Not interested in giving up any of the better prospects for him. I'd even be leery about a 2nd round pick, as his numbers in the AHL and his brief NHL stints don't exactly jump out as impressive. But 3rd round pick or later? Absolutely.

I'm staying far away from this topic...so far away.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 09, 2018, 09:09:28 AM
I'd pass. Has talent but too many question marks there.

Worth the risk if you can get him cheap.

Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.

Martin for Ho-Sang. Boom.

Ho-Sang definitely wouldn't fit into the new Isles culture with Lou as the helm.  Martin has proven to be a real gud Lou soldier.  I like this deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: PCB on May 09, 2018, 09:18:30 AM
But would Ho-sang fit into the Leafs current culture?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 09, 2018, 10:17:57 AM
But would Ho-sang fit into the Leafs current culture?

Kadri would take him under his wing.  He's learned in the school of hard knocks.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 09, 2018, 10:24:01 AM
But would Ho-sang fit into the Leafs current culture?

Young, highly skilled players (many from the GTA)? Shepherded by a quiet lead-by-example team dad, driven by a high pick yo-yo who previously had a run-in or two with the front office (for being late to practice) and is also a player of colour (https://www.mcgilldaily.com/2018/01/media-coverage-of-black-players-reveals-hockeys-race-problem/) from one of the most multi-cultural neighbourhoods in the NHL? All steered by a coach with an even bigger ego with the credentials and work-ethic to back it up?

I kind of want to see that here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 09, 2018, 10:50:26 AM
But would Ho-sang fit into the Leafs current culture?

Young, highly skilled players (many from the GTA)? Shepherded by a quiet lead-by-example team dad, driven by a high pick yo-yo who previously had a run-in or two with the front office (for being late to practice) and is also a player of colour (https://www.mcgilldaily.com/2018/01/media-coverage-of-black-players-reveals-hockeys-race-problem/) from one of the most multi-cultural neighbourhoods in the NHL? All steered by a coach with an even bigger ego with the credentials and work-ethic to back it up?

I kind of want to see that here.

Also, the whole "culture is over-rated" thing that leads us to poke fun at Lou's rules and such.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 09, 2018, 11:05:36 AM
Also, the whole "culture is over-rated" thing that leads us to poke fun at Lou's rules and such.

A lot of it is silly, but there were a few things I appreciated from Lou, especially coming from the way things were going before: baseline stability, unified messaging. I think they're in a much better shape to add players without their perceived personalities tipping anything over.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 09, 2018, 11:09:03 AM
Or, to move this away from the over-used and often coded concept of "culture", even the more innocuous hypothetical of whether or not Ho-sang is the worst version of what he's been painted as seems to not be a big deal.

If he bristles at constructive coaching or sleeps in or parties or whatever then I genuinely think that it's not an issue if the team you already have has a good make-up and is well-coached. Either that group works to rehabilitate someone or they isolate them and don't let the bad habits spread. The downside ultimately being no more than just a risk not paying off.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 09, 2018, 11:14:38 AM
A lot of it is silly, but there were a few things I appreciated from Lou, especially coming from the way things were going before: baseline stability, unified messaging. I think they're in a much better shape to add players without their perceived personalities tipping anything over.

What are some examples of disparate messaging from previous GMs?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 09, 2018, 11:24:09 AM
What are some examples of disparate messaging from previous GMs?

Rampant trade rumours (clearly originating from the front office), publicly airing out disagreements between players and coaches (which are normal), a bit of throwing each other under the bus (Burke/Wilson), all on top of having a bad on-ice product.

I didn't like losing direct access to people like Dubas and Hunter and the assistant coaches because I enjoy the tactical and managerial side of the game, but I am okay with them clamping things down for this period of time after what came before.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 09, 2018, 11:27:20 AM
Rampant trade rumours (clearly originating from the front office), publicly airing out disagreements between players and coaches (which are normal), a bit of throwing each other under the bus (Burke/Wilson), all on top of having a bad on-ice product.

I can see why someone might choose to not like some of those things(trade rumours though?) and how they might imply a discordant front office but I suppose I never really saw that as mixed messaging. If anything, I always thought Burke was very straightforward and certain in his policies, even if they were the wrong ones.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 09, 2018, 11:38:37 AM
I can see why someone might choose to not like some of those things(trade rumours though?) and how they might imply a discordant front office but I suppose I never really saw that as mixed messaging. If anything, I always thought Burke was very straightforward and certain in his policies, even if they were the wrong ones.

Mixed messaging might just be me phrasing my idea incorrectly. Maybe 'messy' is the better term.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 09, 2018, 11:54:30 AM
I can see why someone might choose to not like some of those things(trade rumours though?) and how they might imply a discordant front office but I suppose I never really saw that as mixed messaging. If anything, I always thought Burke was very straightforward and certain in his policies, even if they were the wrong ones.

Mixed messaging might just be me phrasing my idea incorrectly. Maybe 'messy' is the better term.

Maybe, but I'm not sure how you could completely separate that from the larger issue with the team and it's direction. Things were messy with Burke because things weren't going well. Likewise, I think things currently would be a bit messier if the Leafs had drafted Puljujarvi instead of Matthews.

I get the idea that, you know, if you're working in an office and your last boss was a disorganized mess that when a new hire starts coming up with rules about what angle your pen should be at if you leave it on a desk it can give the impression of an attention to detail or whatever but it's still fundamentally crazy.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 09, 2018, 12:53:06 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 09, 2018, 12:57:33 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

Probably not, no. Honestly, don't expect anything until much closer to the draft.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 09, 2018, 01:05:10 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

For all the GMing that needs doing?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 09, 2018, 01:22:53 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

Probably not, no. Honestly, don't expect anything until much closer to the draft.

What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

For all the GMing that needs doing?

I think there's a lot that has to be done before the draft especially in sorting out the roles and the fallout coming from the decision of who becomes GM.  If the rumors are true and Hunter looks to leave if Dubas gets the job (or vice versa), then a succession plan will have to be put in place to replace one of those 2 as assistant GM (and GM of the Marlies).

Even though playoffs are ongoing, I believe other teams can still talk to each other about frameworks for trades going forward, you'd probably want to start discussions earlier on that, like way before the draft if you're thinking of making any deals during the draft weekend.  If other GMs have no idea who the Leafs GM is, they don't know who they should be talking to, and nothing will move forward.  It's always best to have your power structure well defined well ahead of any important dates.  I know that Shanahan is the top of the power chain, but unless he's carrying out the GM duties currently, things will slip.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 09, 2018, 01:32:28 PM
I think there's a lot that has to be done before the draft especially in sorting out the roles and the fallout coming from the decision of who becomes GM.  If the rumors are true and Hunter looks to leave if Dubas gets the job (or vice versa), then a succession plan will have to be put in place to replace one of those 2 as assistant GM (and GM of the Marlies).

Both of those plans can be set up as contingencies for if and when they need to be actually implemented.

Even though playoffs are ongoing, I believe other teams can still talk to each other about frameworks for trades going forward, you'd probably want to start discussions earlier on that, like way before the draft if you're thinking of making any deals during the draft weekend.

I doubt there's much in the way of specific talk going on while hockey is still being played. Especially as lots of teams are conducting their own internal reviews/hiring processes. I don't think trades are such complicated beasts that you need a month's lead time to get them done pre-draft.

If other GMs have no idea who the Leafs GM is, they don't know who they should be talking to, and nothing will move forward. 

That seems like a beyond easy problem to solve. Preliminary discussions can go through Shanahan just like they'd have gone through Lamoriello before. All throughout Lamoriello's tenure we heard how much of what went on was a collaborative process. That still goes on just without Hunter or Dubas in the role of final decision maker because there aren't final decisions to be made.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 09, 2018, 05:41:13 PM
I think there's a lot that has to be done before the draft especially in sorting out the roles and the fallout coming from the decision of who becomes GM.  If the rumors are true and Hunter looks to leave if Dubas gets the job (or vice versa), then a succession plan will have to be put in place to replace one of those 2 as assistant GM (and GM of the Marlies).

Both of those plans can be set up as contingencies for if and when they need to be actually implemented.

Even though playoffs are ongoing, I believe other teams can still talk to each other about frameworks for trades going forward, you'd probably want to start discussions earlier on that, like way before the draft if you're thinking of making any deals during the draft weekend.

I doubt there's much in the way of specific talk going on while hockey is still being played. Especially as lots of teams are conducting their own internal reviews/hiring processes. I don't think trades are such complicated beasts that you need a month's lead time to get them done pre-draft.

If other GMs have no idea who the Leafs GM is, they don't know who they should be talking to, and nothing will move forward. 

That seems like a beyond easy problem to solve. Preliminary discussions can go through Shanahan just like they'd have gone through Lamoriello before. All throughout Lamoriello's tenure we heard how much of what went on was a collaborative process. That still goes on just without Hunter or Dubas in the role of final decision maker because there aren't final decisions to be made.

I'm not convinced that there isn't a fair bit of General Managing to do.  The draft is only a week before July 1st...I would imagine that there would have to be a plan on who they're letting walk, and who they're going to try and sign to fill some of the bigger holes.  I'd figure a guy taking over that role would want, at least, a discussion on whether or not Bozak and JVR get deals.

Nylander is also a guy that needs a deal, and I can't imagine that would be something they want to drag out.

I don't for a second believe that there aren't discussions going on between teams, even if things don't get finalized until after the Cup is handed over.

The incoming GM has some decisions to make on the defense situation, I hope.  And if this is the case, it'd be nice if he had a feel for what the market is like for some of his players before he has to decide on what to do July 1st...and given that, teams get to speak with these guys a week beforehand, right?  So you'd need to decide on who you want to get in line with likely before the draft.



Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 09, 2018, 06:00:29 PM

Yeah, again, I really don't see how any of that stuff isn't A) something they can be doing without anyone in the big chair or B) something that can be managed if they only name their GM in late May or early June.

Seriously, why does there need to be someone with the GM title for there to be an internal discussion on JVR or Bozak? Or in what way is the Nylander stuff complicated? They're going to re-sign him, they probably have a number relatively sketched out...why would the negotiations be something Shanahan couldn't delegate?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 09, 2018, 06:14:25 PM

Yeah, again, I really don't see how any of that stuff isn't A) something they can be doing without anyone in the big chair or B) something that can be managed if they only name their GM in late May or early June.

Seriously, why does there need to be someone with the GM title for there to be an internal discussion on JVR or Bozak? Or in what way is the Nylander stuff complicated? They're going to re-sign him, they probably have a number relatively sketched out...why would the negotiations be something Shanahan couldn't delegate?

Who has the internal discussion?  The 2 guys wanting the job?  Who's responsible for the result, or really, who would want to be if it goes wrong? What if the discussion leads to wanting to retain JVR, then who deals with the term and number?  Does the next guy even agree with that?

This is kind of a silly conversation, but really, in the position the Leafs are in, you don't go long without somebody calling the shots, and being responsible for the result.

If there really wasn't much to be done in the off-season, then really, what has Lou done since September that's of consequence? 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 09, 2018, 06:23:17 PM
Who has the internal discussion?

I assume the usual group that would discuss these things only minus Lamoriello. So Shanahan, Dubas, Hunter, maybe Pridham, Babcock, etc...

Who's responsible for the result, or really, who would want to be if it goes wrong?

If what goes wrong? A discussion? Again, you're confusing the need for a discussion with the need for a decision.

What if the discussion leads to wanting to retain JVR, then who deals with the term and number?  Does the next guy even agree with that?

Well, to answer the first question...Shanahan could assign that to anyone if a decision desperately needed to be made...but it doesn't. They can, however, still have an internal discussion so opinions are made and an attempt at a consensus formed. They did stuff like this pre-Lamoriello, they can do it now that he's gone.

This is kind of a silly conversation, but really, in the position the Leafs are in, you don't go long without somebody calling the shots, and being responsible for the result.

Right? The Leafs need someone in charge who can make decisions if they absolutely need to be made. I thought they had someone like that. Brendan...something Irish? I typed that into google and all I got was this guy:

(https://www.biography.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cg_face%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_300/MTE5NDg0MDU0NzQwNzY0MTc1/brendan-gleeson-215220-1-402.jpg)

So maybe it's him? True, his wikipedia entry doesn't say much about hockey but he was great in Garda.

If there really wasn't much to be done in the off-season, then really, what has Lou done since September that's of consequence?

"The offseason" ≠ May.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bender on May 09, 2018, 06:36:24 PM
Who has the internal discussion?

I assume the usual group that would discuss these things only minus Lamoriello. So Shanahan, Dubas, Hunter, maybe Pridham, Babcock, etc...

Who's responsible for the result, or really, who would want to be if it goes wrong?

If what goes wrong? A discussion? Again, you're confusing the need for a discussion with the need for a decision.

What if the discussion leads to wanting to retain JVR, then who deals with the term and number?  Does the next guy even agree with that?

Well, to answer the first question...Shanahan could assign that to anyone if a decision desperately needed to be made...but it doesn't. They can, however, still have an internal discussion so opinions are made and an attempt at a consensus formed. They did stuff like this pre-Lamoriello, they can do it now that he's gone.

This is kind of a silly conversation, but really, in the position the Leafs are in, you don't go long without somebody calling the shots, and being responsible for the result.

Right? The Leafs need someone in charge who can make decisions if they absolutely need to be made. I thought they had someone like that. Brendan...something Irish? I typed that into google and all I got was this guy:

(https://www.biography.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cg_face%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_300/MTE5NDg0MDU0NzQwNzY0MTc1/brendan-gleeson-215220-1-402.jpg)

So maybe it's him? True, his wikipedia entry doesn't say much about hockey but he was great in Garda.

If there really wasn't much to be done in the off-season, then really, what has Lou done since September that's of consequence?

"The offseason" ≠ May.
And in In Bruges!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on May 09, 2018, 06:43:04 PM
Who has the internal discussion?

I assume the usual group that would discuss these things only minus Lamoriello. So Shanahan, Dubas, Hunter, maybe Pridham, Babcock, etc...

Who's responsible for the result, or really, who would want to be if it goes wrong?

If what goes wrong? A discussion? Again, you're confusing the need for a discussion with the need for a decision.

What if the discussion leads to wanting to retain JVR, then who deals with the term and number?  Does the next guy even agree with that?

Well, to answer the first question...Shanahan could assign that to anyone if a decision desperately needed to be made...but it doesn't. They can, however, still have an internal discussion so opinions are made and an attempt at a consensus formed. They did stuff like this pre-Lamoriello, they can do it now that he's gone.

This is kind of a silly conversation, but really, in the position the Leafs are in, you don't go long without somebody calling the shots, and being responsible for the result.

Right? The Leafs need someone in charge who can make decisions if they absolutely need to be made. I thought they had someone like that. Brendan...something Irish? I typed that into google and all I got was this guy:

(https://www.biography.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cg_face%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_300/MTE5NDg0MDU0NzQwNzY0MTc1/brendan-gleeson-215220-1-402.jpg)

So maybe it's him? True, his wikipedia entry doesn't say much about hockey but he was great in Garda.

If there really wasn't much to be done in the off-season, then really, what has Lou done since September that's of consequence?

"The offseason" ≠ May.
And in In Bruges!

Damn, I was just about to post that!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on May 11, 2018, 11:04:01 AM
Thorton quotes: ďI bleed teal and I want to come back and I know I'm going to be healthy when I come back. I'm sure we can figure something out, but I want to come back.Ē

I was hopefully the Leafs could lure him for a year but I am sure the Sharks and Jumbo Joe will figure it out.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/thornton-willing-to-take-pay-cut-but-sharks-might-need-deep-discount-to-make-it-work (http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/thornton-willing-to-take-pay-cut-but-sharks-might-need-deep-discount-to-make-it-work)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 11, 2018, 11:11:27 AM
Thorton quotes: ďI bleed teal and I want to come back and I know I'm going to be healthy when I come back. I'm sure we can figure something out, but I want to come back.Ē

I was hopefully the Leafs could lure him for a year but I am sure the Sharks and Jumbo Joe will figure it out.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/thornton-willing-to-take-pay-cut-but-sharks-might-need-deep-discount-to-make-it-work (http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/thornton-willing-to-take-pay-cut-but-sharks-might-need-deep-discount-to-make-it-work)

I was always a big Thornton-guy, but his injury history the past 2 seasons make it a hard pass for me now. Knee issues for a guy his age are a big red-flag. Just look at Robidas.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 11, 2018, 11:53:12 AM
I was always a big Thornton-guy, but his injury history the past 2 seasons make it a hard pass for me now. Knee issues for a guy his age are a big red-flag. Just look at Robidas.

Yeah. Especially since it's both knees, not just the one.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 12, 2018, 02:48:23 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

Probably not, no. Honestly, don't expect anything until much closer to the draft.
Wrong again busta! ;)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 12, 2018, 04:02:12 PM
Yeah, I stand by my initial assessment...there's a lot of work to do well before the draft and the beginning of free agency...especially if Dubas wants to make some immediate changes in personnel.  And they may be without Hunter soon, so that'll be another hole they need to fill, and bring that guy up to speed. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 12, 2018, 06:24:25 PM

I have to imagine that the majority of their amateur scouting work will be done by now so whoever replaces Hunter will likely not have much to do pre-draft outside of being another voice in the room.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: pmrules on May 12, 2018, 11:48:17 PM

I have to imagine that the majority of their amateur scouting work will be done by now so whoever replaces Hunter will likely not have much to do pre-draft outside of being another voice in the room.

Agreed that the amateur scouting is done, however, I think a Kyle & Mark/XXX draft strategy will look slightly different than a Lou & Mark draft strategy (See: 2015 vs. the 2016/2017 drafts).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 13, 2018, 08:05:53 AM
Agreed that the amateur scouting is done, however, I think a Kyle & Mark/XXX draft strategy will look slightly different than a Lou & Mark draft strategy (See: 2015 vs. the 2016/2017 drafts).

I have to be honest, I'm looking at the 2015 and 2016 drafts and they strike me as being stunningly similar so I'm not entirely sure what you're going for there.

That said, I do agree that Dubas at the helm might very well result in a different outlook and strategy than Lamoriello. I think the issue, although it's sort of moot now that Dubas has been announced, is how much of that can really be planned in advanced and what time is required to get that down.

My guess is that most teams will look at their picks, come up with a list of players they think will be available at each of those picks, do extra research/analysis on that short list of players and come up with a general sense of what they might do at each pick.

Of course, every team will also know that they need to have a certain degree of flexibility too. They don't know what players might unexpectedly drop to them or be off the board when they pick. They don't know what teams will call with a last minute offer to move up or down the draft or to shop a player in exchange for picks. So whatever their "strategy" might be, they can't be married to it. Especially not when you're drafting 25th as opposed to, say, 1st.

So, yeah, I think teams will have general outlines of a strategy and good teams will dot their i's and cross the t's on their prospects but at issue is whether or not that needs to be GM specific(and, if it does, how long does it really take to come up with that).

Because we knew that the Leafs were likely going to promote one of their AGMs to the big chair I think any pre-draft prep work could probably have gone on without a GM. You're still coming up with that shortlist with input from both Hunter and Dubas and decisions still don't need to be made on anything until the end of June. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 13, 2018, 08:38:33 AM
Anyone heard what the mandate is supposed to be in Minnesota with the new GM?

That Parise deal is looking pretty awesome right now.  Really though, who would have thought that there would be an issue with a 13 year commitment. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 13, 2018, 08:47:29 AM
That Parise deal is looking pretty awesome right now.  Really though, who would have thought that there would be an issue with a 13 year commitment.

That's why I'm really cautious about guys like Weber. I know that the whole "Why would he play those last few years if he's only making 1 million" thing has some real logic to it but my answer to that is always that a lot of these guys really like playing hockey and hang on with their fingernails.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 14, 2018, 09:52:26 AM
Saw an interesting trade idea floating on twitter today:

Adam Mascherin (Panthers prospect who decided not to sign with the club) for Frederik Gauthier (RFA who the Leafs might decide not to bring back)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 14, 2018, 09:56:46 AM
Saw an interesting trade idea floating on twitter today:

Adam Mascherin (Panthers prospect who decided not to sign with the club) for Frederik Gauthier (RFA who the Leafs might decide not to bring back)

Any Mascherin* to the Leafs for that tier of prospect talk is A+ in my books.

Also, what's up with Florida's prospect retention issues?

* Adam Mascherin (https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2018/3/26/17154488/montreal-canadiens-trade-target-adam-mascherin-florida-panthers-draft-pick-kitchener-rangers) has the same agency as Zach Hyman, who also gave Florida the same news a couple of years ago. He was also the linemate of Jeremy Bracco's on the Kitchener Rangers when they paired up to dummy the OHL.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 14, 2018, 10:13:54 PM
Bob McKenzie thinks anyone who is not Sebastian Aho can be available from Dundonís Hurricanes.

We could conceivably buy Slavin-Pesce if we are feeling crazy, or pick up Faulk.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2018, 12:33:57 AM
Bob McKenzie thinks anyone who is not Sebastian Aho can be available from Dundonís Hurricanes.

We could conceivably buy Slavin-Pesce if we are feeling crazy, or pick up Faulk.

I'd be pretty surprised if they move Slavin or Pesce... but Faulk I could see even if it's just to shake up the locker room. And while he's not exactly the type of defenceman I think we need he'd be by far our best option on the right side so I'd check in there for sure.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2018, 12:43:54 AM
Skinner's name has also been mentioned a lot. He'd be a guy I might target if we want to balance out our lefty/righty's on the wing. He's a local guy with tons of speed and can score. Brown for Skinner. Maybe Zaitsev+ for Faulk. Throw in Martin too after his bonus as well since Carolina's openly talked about wanting to get tougher. Assuming we don't land Tavares that could give us:

Skinner-Matthews-Kapanen
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Nylander-Hyman

Could swap Hyman and Kapanen if you/Babs want to.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 15, 2018, 12:48:25 AM

As a side note, I think Marner-Dermott vs. Hanifin-Aho is going to be an interesting conversation in the years to come.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 15, 2018, 11:45:06 AM

As a side note, I think Marner-Dermott vs. Hanifin-Aho is going to be an interesting conversation in the years to come.

You probably aren't going to read this Nik, but it's a re-draft with today's info of 2015
https://theathletic.com/353504/2018/05/15/wheeler-a-2015-nhl-draft-re-draft-and-retrospective-look-back-at-my-ranking/

Marner goes from 4th to 5th
Dermott goes from 34th to 21st

Hanifin goes from 5th to 8th
Aho goes from 35th to 12th

It's just one person's rankings, however, and a fluid situation at that.
Travis Konecny, whom we could have drafted at 24 as an aside, is re-ranked 15th.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 15, 2018, 12:53:52 PM
Here's another site that redoes drafts....hindsight...
https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2015/
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on May 15, 2018, 02:43:26 PM

As a side note, I think Marner-Dermott vs. Hanifin-Aho is going to be an interesting conversation in the years to come.

You probably aren't going to read this Nik, but it's a re-draft with today's info of 2015
https://theathletic.com/353504/2018/05/15/wheeler-a-2015-nhl-draft-re-draft-and-retrospective-look-back-at-my-ranking/

Marner goes from 4th to 5th
Dermott goes from 34th to 21st

Hanifin goes from 5th to 8th
Aho goes from 35th to 12th

It's just one person's rankings, however, and a fluid situation at that.
Travis Konecny, whom we could have drafted at 24 as an aside, is re-ranked 15th.

Wheeler has Werenski at 4 and Provorov at 7.  I'd take Provorov all day everyday ahead of Werenski. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on May 15, 2018, 02:47:19 PM
Here's another site that redoes drafts....hindsight...
https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2015/

Their 2013 re-draft has Rasmus Ristolainen ahead of Seth Jones?!?!?!?! 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on May 16, 2018, 01:41:23 PM
Just read an article about the Canes players for sale.  Looks like Justin Faulk  is available.  Is he any good as I have not watched the Canes in years and what would we have to give up for him?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on May 16, 2018, 04:07:28 PM
He's not known to be strong in his own end. Although a right shot, I would group in with similar style of d man as Gardiner/Reilly/Dermott. We need someone with a very strong defensive game.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 16, 2018, 04:11:30 PM
He's not known to be strong in his own end. Although a right shot, I would group in with similar style of d man as Gardiner/Reilly/Dermott. We need someone with a very strong defensive game.

Question: what is defensively stronger than putting the puck into the opposing net?

I'm being a biiiit facetious. I know we need some better options for players that can withstand extended DZ pressure (Polak strong) that hopefully don't invite it in the course of their play (Polak slow and backing off play).

Barring a delicious trade to a stupid GM, I still hold out some hope for Zaitsev learning how to skate out of pressure and seeing/hitting outlets, because he has got the tools to push up ice as well as the tools to break cycles. It was starting to come together at times last season, but punctuated by injury and some stand out mistakes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on May 16, 2018, 04:23:46 PM
He's not known to be strong in his own end. Although a right shot, I would group in with similar style of d man as Gardiner/Reilly/Dermott. We need someone with a very strong defensive game.
Agreed, I just wish one of our towering draft picks was ready to step in, would be nice to see one or two 6'5" guys on the ice with mobility.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 16, 2018, 08:18:00 PM
I think people are going to have to disabuse themselves of the idea that the Leafs are going to be able to really solve their defensive issues externally. That's not to say they can't improve things to a degree but significant external improvement is either going to have to come from a free agent signing, which tends to be a limited and inefficient market, or via trade which necessitates paying a price in direct relation to the player being traded for.

Personally, I dont think the Leafs have enough of a surplus in either forward talent or non-NHL assets that any sort of significant trade for blue line help would be an easy decision. Take the Hamonic deal as an example; does Hamonic but no JVR make the team better? Sure, it makes the team more balanced but I don't think that means better automatically.

(Excepting of course that they'd have Hamonic for next year)

That's why I think it's important to keep in mind that Carolina's big "announcement" about player availability doesn't amount to much. There's a big difference between for sale and on sale.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 06:34:53 AM
I think thatís the right read, Nik. Theyíre only going to make a big fish trade if the piece coming back is as much (if not more) of a needle mover. Otherwise, itís all about nipping at the fringes of other rosters for underutilized talent.

This is why I lean towards trying your darndest to land Tavares if he is even a bit open to coming here. Pile all the cap allotment in him, the big 3 and the next layer of high value commitments at moderate hits, and use the remainder for filling the wings and depth defense with cheap Marlies that will eventually be traded for assets.

If Tavares goes somewhere else, and no shutdowny centre comes in, then itís Willy time, and you flesh out the wings to support Matthews and Nylanderís respective deficiencies accordingly.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on May 17, 2018, 08:17:18 AM
Best defense is a good offense!

I'm sure we'll see incremental improvement on defense. No big splash opportunities, but they can improve without adding top pairing guys.

Splash where you can, i.e. Tavares.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 17, 2018, 10:09:40 AM
I think thatís the right read, Nik. Theyíre only going to make a big fish trade if the piece coming back is as much (if not more) of a needle mover. Otherwise, itís all about nipping at the fringes of other rosters for underutilized talent.

This is why I lean towards trying your darndest to land Tavares if he is even a bit open to coming here. Pile all the cap allotment in him, the big 3 and the next layer of high value commitments at moderate hits, and use the remainder for filling the wings and depth defense with cheap Marlies that will eventually be traded for assets.

If Tavares goes somewhere else, and no shutdowny centre comes in, then itís Willy time, and you flesh out the wings to support Matthews and Nylanderís respective deficiencies accordingly.

I think where we agree is that I think that may very well be their best plan to improve the team immediately.  Where we disagree is I don't think that's a very good plan for building a team that can become one of the clubs that separates themselves from the pack.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 10:36:51 AM
So, I'm a big proponent of offense = effective defense.

That being said, I also feel there is a huge belief among hockey management groups that 50+ pt defenders are ones who need 7M+ and they are highly valuable and sought after (sup, Dion Phaneuf?).

I also believe that trying to score from the point regularly (a la Brent Burns, Shea Weber) is basically the NHL version of the long two-pointer in basketball: it is depressingly inefficient. On a team like the Leafs, that's taking the puck away from your actual firepower (Matthews, Nylander, Kadri), so they really only use the point shot for deliberate high tips, rebounds, and to keep goaltenders occasionally honest by bringing their shot down to the top of the circle.

What that means is, I'm looking for a 20-24 year old 3rd pairing defender that can skate out of trouble, make an accurate pass, and aggressively break up plays on a carrier, but who doesn't necessarily put up points. In stats terms, that means high relative CF%, low CA60, don't care about iCF but where the iFF is a higher proportion of the overall iCF (which means he can get shots through).

It also means I'm willing to ship out one of Rielly/Gardiner for a king's ransom because Dermott could make them surplus to needs for a fraction of the cost. I kind of want to keep Gardiner over Rielly too, because of the CA60 difference, but salary considerations and age might flip that around.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on May 17, 2018, 11:00:12 AM
Gardiner is a UFA after next season. Count me in on the trade Gardiner bandwagon.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 17, 2018, 11:29:27 AM
What that means is, I'm looking for a 20-24 year old 3rd pairing defender that can skate out of trouble, make an accurate pass, and aggressively break up plays on a carrier, but who doesn't necessarily put up points. In stats terms, that means high relative CF%, low CA60, don't care about iCF but where the iFF is a higher proportion of the overall iCF (which means he can get shots through).

So a good skating, smart decision making, good passing and reasonably good shooting defenseman who can't put up points?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 11:40:14 AM
What that means is, I'm looking for a 20-24 year old 3rd pairing defender that can skate out of trouble, make an accurate pass, and aggressively break up plays on a carrier, but who doesn't necessarily put up points. In stats terms, that means high relative CF%, low CA60, don't care about iCF but where the iFF is a higher proportion of the overall iCF (which means he can get shots through).

So a good skating, smart decision making, good passing and reasonably good shooting defenseman who can't put up points?

Haha hasnít had the opportunity to put up points yet due to opportunity or playing only with garbage forwards.

I.e. doesnít need to score it himself
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 12:27:16 PM
I think thatís the right read, Nik. Theyíre only going to make a big fish trade if the piece coming back is as much (if not more) of a needle mover. Otherwise, itís all about nipping at the fringes of other rosters for underutilized talent.

This is why I lean towards trying your darndest to land Tavares if he is even a bit open to coming here. Pile all the cap allotment in him, the big 3 and the next layer of high value commitments at moderate hits, and use the remainder for filling the wings and depth defense with cheap Marlies that will eventually be traded for assets.

If Tavares goes somewhere else, and no shutdowny centre comes in, then itís Willy time, and you flesh out the wings to support Matthews and Nylanderís respective deficiencies accordingly.

I think where we agree is that I think that may very well be their best plan to improve the team immediately.  Where we disagree is I don't think that's a very good plan for building a team that can become one of the clubs that separates themselves from the pack.

Given where we already are and the lack of patience in the fan base for building further from within via top-5 picks, what would be a better plan going forward for greater separation?

Forward depth is the area we can really stand out with.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 17, 2018, 12:31:06 PM
Given where we already are and the lack of patience in the fan base for building further from within via top-5 picks, what would be a better plan going forward for greater separation?

Well, I think the obvious point there is that an impatient fan base shouldn't be a key factor in team building.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 01:07:47 PM
Well, I think the obvious point there is that an impatient fan base shouldn't be a key factor in team building.

I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 17, 2018, 01:43:37 PM
I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.

Sure and if you want to say that they should go with the best or least-bad option I don't necessarily disagree. I wouldn't even argue that it's doomed or anything. A good trade or two, some real development from Dermott and Liljegren(or others within the system) and Freddy getting hot at the right time and who knows? They won't be the Blackhawks or Penguins but they can probably be the 2011 Bruins or 2006 Canes. They absolutely can build a team with a puncher's chance.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on May 17, 2018, 03:05:48 PM
I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.

Sure and if you want to say that they should go with the best or least-bad option I don't necessarily disagree. I wouldn't even argue that it's doomed or anything. A good trade or two, some real development from Dermott and Liljegren(or others within the system) and Freddy getting hot at the right time and who knows? They won't be the Blackhawks or Penguins but they can probably be the 2011 Bruins or 2006 Canes. They absolutely can build a team with a puncher's chance.

Which is what some of us wanted to avoid.  I would argue that trading for Freddy is when the writing was on the wall that the plan had been accelerated.  Maybe though they didn't think they would be this good this soon.  Hard to say, but if you look at the moves after that, I think they went in to a win now mode, and that it was a bit too soon to do so.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on May 17, 2018, 03:20:09 PM
I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.

Sure and if you want to say that they should go with the best or least-bad option I don't necessarily disagree. I wouldn't even argue that it's doomed or anything. A good trade or two, some real development from Dermott and Liljegren(or others within the system) and Freddy getting hot at the right time and who knows? They won't be the Blackhawks or Penguins but they can probably be the 2011 Bruins or 2006 Canes. They absolutely can build a team with a puncher's chance.

Which is what some of us wanted to avoid.  I would argue that trading for Freddy is when the writing was on the wall that the plan had been accelerated.  Maybe though they didn't think they would be this good this soon.  Hard to say, but if you look at the moves after that, I think they went in to a win now mode, and that it was a bit too soon to do so.

My opinion regarding the Freddie trade was that they saw an opportunity to get a reliable starter and they took it for two reasons:
1.  You never know when you'll be able to acquire one. 
2.  You don't want your very young team to play without trusting their goalie

I don't think they were in a win now mode when that trade happened.  They were in a "we can't have a sieve back there while trying to develop so many young guys" mode.

Then the team showed they were better than expected a couple of months into 2016-2017 and that's when they moved into win now mode. 

I think going into 2016-2017, their plan was probably to trade JvR and Bozak at some point in the next 12 months.  Team was better than expected so they figured lets keep them and push.

Was it a bit too soon?  Probably.  They could have acquired more assets for their UFA's which would help down the line- but I don't think those would be high-end players coming back either. 

(JvR would have brought back the best return- and even there, you're probably looking at a late 1st round pick.  You can get a good middle roster player there as long as you don't draft for size (see Biggs, Gauthier), but have to get really lucky to get high-end talent.)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 03:21:52 PM
I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.

Sure and if you want to say that they should go with the best or least-bad option I don't necessarily disagree. I wouldn't even argue that it's doomed or anything. A good trade or two, some real development from Dermott and Liljegren(or others within the system) and Freddy getting hot at the right time and who knows? They won't be the Blackhawks or Penguins but they can probably be the 2011 Bruins or 2006 Canes. They absolutely can build a team with a puncher's chance.

Which is what some of us wanted to avoid.  I would argue that trading for Freddy is when the writing was on the wall that the plan had been accelerated.  Maybe though they didn't think they would be this good this soon.  Hard to say, but if you look at the moves after that, I think they went in to a win now mode, and that it was a bit too soon to do so.

I would characterize it more as, let's see how far this group goes (i.e. JvR), rather than an outright win-now. Win-now would've been spinning Nylander off for Tanev or something equally stupid. They really only made short-term gambles of generally doing not much other than delaying the rise of the (other) children.

Anyway, my question is less what we should've have done, and more what can we do now.

I don't think we're up the creek without Tavares, but I also don't think getting him would significantly derail our future either.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 17, 2018, 03:29:30 PM
Which is what some of us wanted to avoid.  I would argue that trading for Freddy is when the writing was on the wall that the plan had been accelerated.  Maybe though they didn't think they would be this good this soon.  Hard to say, but if you look at the moves after that, I think they went in to a win now mode, and that it was a bit too soon to do so.

I more or less agree although I think "win now'' is a bit confusing as it mixes it up with short term moves made in the service of actually winning something. I think they did, however, want to make an immediate push for, if not winning, then at least respectability and it effectively jump started the process.

C'est la vie and everything and, who knows, as the league continues to enforce parity above all else it may be that the best a team can hope for is a fair roll of the dice but just like it was with previous administrations I think it's worth while to keep a running tab of where things got fudged up.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 21, 2018, 12:02:07 PM
This guy has a computer model to predict deals this offseason:
No idea what kind of accuracy there might be, but thought it might bring about some discussion.

Some highlights:

Tavares 8yrs @ 10.734M <-- would stretch there for the Leafs
Carlson 8yrs @ 8.6M <-- that's really pushing it, I think... would be fine at <= 7.5
Nylander 5yrs @ 7M <-- for 7M, it should be 7yrs, not 5
Stastny 3yrs @ 5.41M <-- yes please - I'd turn around and trade Kadri for a Dman
Green 5yrs @ 5.639M <-- no thanks
JvR 3yrs @ 5.35M <-- still no
Maroon 4yrs @ 5.288M <-- maybe.. don't know enough about him
Rick Nash 1yr @ 4.6M <-- maybe... he's not what he used to be...
Bozak 3yrs @ 4.378M <-- nope
James Neal 1yr @ 4.3M <-- yes
Grabner 4yrs @ 3.825M <-- not with that term
Komarov 3yrs @ 2.85M <-- no thanks
Jack Johnson 1yr @ 2.59M <-- maybe...
Plekanec 3yrs @ 2.5M <-- nah
Riley Nash 3yrs @ 2.277M <-- I'd take that for 3rd line C
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on May 21, 2018, 12:13:17 PM
He's got Jagr signing a contract worth more money than de Haan. Both one-year deals. Not sold on his projections.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 21, 2018, 12:19:51 PM
He's got Jagr signing a contract worth more money than de Haan. Both one-year deals. Not sold on his projections.

There's always going to be some weird ones, but IIRC he got pretty close to a lot of deals last offseason. His projections also show that if de Haan signs a 4+ year deal it'd be for a $3.5mil-ish AAV which I think is probably about right.

On a related note though I think Calvin de Haan is going to be a very smart signing for somebody this offseason. Too bad he's a lefty.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on May 21, 2018, 12:55:53 PM
A lot of these numbers look lower than I'd expect (as opposed to lower than I'd want if I were signing the guy to my team).  My rule of thumb on UFA contracts is to ask what the upper limit on "good" contract is and then add 50% or a couple of million, whichever is more. 

Also, why would people pay Maroon more than JVR?  Maroon has 42 and 43 points the 2 years, some of it playing with McDavid?

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 21, 2018, 01:23:45 PM
On a related note though I think Calvin de Haan is going to be a very smart signing for somebody this offseason. Too bad he's a lefty.

Trade Gardiner for a comparable righty and sign De Hann to take his spot on the left.  As long as the righty is good enough, we might come out ahead in that scenario.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on May 21, 2018, 01:32:38 PM
Trade Gardiner for a comparable righty and sign De Hann to take his spot on the left.  As long as the righty is good enough, we might come out ahead in that scenario.

Given the way that RHD are valued I'm going to guess that a deal of that nature would be harder than we might think. I don't think it'd be enough that Gardiner would be a marginal upgrade talent wise but rather it'd have to be someone whose team wasn't very happy with them for whatever reason. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 21, 2018, 01:41:05 PM
Trade Gardiner for a comparable righty and sign De Hann to take his spot on the left.  As long as the righty is good enough, we might come out ahead in that scenario.

Given the way that RHD are valued I'm going to guess that a deal of that nature would be harder than we might think. I don't think it'd be enough that Gardiner would be a marginal upgrade talent wise but rather it'd have to be someone whose team wasn't very happy with them for whatever reason. 

I was looking at some names for this. Faulk was one that I thought of, but with Slavin and Hanifin already on the left side that probably doesn't work. The other one was Damon Severson, which I think could actually make a little sense. Severson seems to have fallen out of favour a little bit in New Jersey, and they could use an upgrade on the left side especially with Andy Greene not getting any younger.

Gardiner is, quite frankly, a better player: Severson will never score 50 points, and defensively-speaking I think they get flak for similar reasons. But, Severson is 4 years younger and signed to a long-term deal at an affordable rate, while Gardiner is a year away from being an UFA where he could command $6mil+ if he gets to 50 points again.

As a big Jake fan it's tough for me to say, but if the Leafs don't feel like they can afford to bring Gardiner back in 2019 this would definitely be an appealing trade. Or at least the basis of one.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 21, 2018, 03:55:43 PM
Iíve been wanting to see us try this, especially now sans JvR and larger forwards in general but most with good shots.

https://thecoachessite.com/2018/05/20/behind-net-powerplay-formation-driven-analytics/
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 22, 2018, 09:02:41 AM
Also, why would people pay Maroon more than JVR?  Maroon has 42 and 43 points the 2 years, some of it playing with McDavid?

A bit of an explanation on why JVR's contract numbers are a little low:

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 22, 2018, 11:05:38 AM
I think people in general struggle with evaluating these sorts of hockey models because it's really easy to fixate on the outliers.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 26, 2018, 12:06:16 AM
Thank you as well for noticing that I'm absolutely crazy bananas. I think Zaitsev is at his best when he's the go option, rather than the stop option. This season, the entire right side was assigned the 'stop' role. I know Zaitsev prides himself for defensive acumen, but he's really a good deal more effective when he's not playing as 'safe', whereas Marincin is the exact opposite and is very effective at denying zone entries (which is what Zaitsev gives away like Halloween candy 2 weeks after). This group has 5 PK options (MM, NZ, MR, TD) and 5 PP options (MR, JG, TD, CC, NZ).

This is coming from somebody who used to be probably his biggest fan here... stop trying to make Marincin happen.

It has been about a month and the landscape has changed significantly. I think itís time to revive the Martin Marincin (the only Martin Iíd like to be on this team next year) appreciation pipe dream.

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Title: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on May 26, 2018, 09:39:38 AM
If Marincin were a righty there'd be some compellingness here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 26, 2018, 09:59:33 AM
If Marincin were a righty there'd be some compellingness here.

Yeah, I think he'd have a solid chance if that were the case. But for lefties we already have Rielly-Gardiner-Dermott locked in. So Marincin is battling for the #7 spot with Borgman, Rosen, and any righty who doesn't make the cut (Carrick, Holl, Russian guy whose name I haven't learned to spell yet).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 26, 2018, 10:41:00 AM
It wouldnít bother me in the least to see

Rielly - Dermott
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Marincin - Holl
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 26, 2018, 12:17:49 PM
It wouldnít bother me in the least to see

Rielly - Dermott
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Marincin - Holl

It would bother me.  I don't think that's good enough.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 26, 2018, 12:33:55 PM
It wouldnít bother me in the least to see

Rielly - Dermott
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Marincin - Holl

It would bother me.  I don't think that's good enough.
Looking at this combo, I wouldn't think they're good enough either. I think your goalie has to be outstanding and the Team needs to play a solid defensive game.
Brayden McNabb....Nate Schmidt
Shea Theodore...Deryk Engelland
Luca Sbisa...Colin Miller
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on May 26, 2018, 07:58:48 PM
So I was wondering, with the Sabres set to draft Dahlin and with a Nylander already on their team, does anyone think Ristolainen could be a potential target in, say, a Willie Nylander trade? Maybe we can pry Reinhart away too, assuming they'd be strongly in favour of uniting the two Nylanders. 

Would W. Nylander + Carrick/Borgman/Rosen + Brooks (or something to that effect) get that deal done or am I way undervaluing Reinhart here?

That would really solve that pesky top-pairing RD position though and give us a decent replacement for Nylander...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on May 26, 2018, 10:35:30 PM
So I was wondering, with the Sabres set to draft Dahlin and with a Nylander already on their team, does anyone think Ristolainen could be a potential target in, say, a Willie Nylander trade? Maybe we can pry Reinhart away too, assuming they'd be strongly in favour of uniting the two Nylanders. 

Would W. Nylander + Carrick/Borgman/Rosen + Brooks (or something to that effect) get that deal done or am I way undervaluing Reinhart here?

That would really solve that pesky top-pairing RD position though and give us a decent replacement for Nylander...

I really would rather them hang onto the 3, and I especially want to see William N. given a shot at center.  Ristolainen is good, but I don't think good enough as the centerpiece in a deal for William.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 27, 2018, 09:25:07 AM
So I was wondering, with the Sabres set to draft Dahlin and with a Nylander already on their team, does anyone think Ristolainen could be a potential target in, say, a Willie Nylander trade? Maybe we can pry Reinhart away too, assuming they'd be strongly in favour of uniting the two Nylanders. 

Would W. Nylander + Carrick/Borgman/Rosen + Brooks (or something to that effect) get that deal done or am I way undervaluing Reinhart here?

That would really solve that pesky top-pairing RD position though and give us a decent replacement for Nylander...

If Ristolainen were a top pairing shutdown RD, I might think about it. Seeing as he is very much the opposite of shutdown, Iíd only consider trading for Ristolainen if we need a PP specialist. Even then, our PP is run through the forwards and works better with an LD as our RW is the playmaker.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 01, 2018, 12:36:29 PM

Just an article on Kovalchuk and what he might be looking for in a return to the NHL:

https://www.tsn.ca/dreger-report-kovalchuk-says-winning-the-priority-in-nhl-return-1.1100940 (https://www.tsn.ca/dreger-report-kovalchuk-says-winning-the-priority-in-nhl-return-1.1100940)

I'd definitely be kicking those tires.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 01, 2018, 12:47:41 PM

Just an article on Kovalchuk and what he might be looking for in a return to the NHL:

https://www.tsn.ca/dreger-report-kovalchuk-says-winning-the-priority-in-nhl-return-1.1100940 (https://www.tsn.ca/dreger-report-kovalchuk-says-winning-the-priority-in-nhl-return-1.1100940)

I'd definitely be kicking those tires.

Anyone know if he can play LW?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 01, 2018, 01:17:45 PM
Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 01, 2018, 01:24:26 PM
Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.

Both.

Let's do lines:

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Kovalchuk - Tavares - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Johnsson - who cares - Kapanen
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 01, 2018, 01:25:06 PM
Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.

Both.

Let's do lines:

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Kovalchuk - Tavares - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Johnsson - who cares - Kapanen

Pretty sure we'd have to have Holl on every defence pairing in that case, but ok I'm game.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on June 01, 2018, 02:31:20 PM
Getting Tavares and seeing Kadri on the 3rd line makes me laugh.  Best third line center in the game.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on June 01, 2018, 08:37:48 PM
Getting Tavares and seeing Kadri on the 3rd line makes me laugh.  Best third line center in the game.

Also, that fourth line centre is a 'can't miss' type of player.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 02, 2018, 10:36:14 AM
Rumours have Hanifin being available:

http://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/ben-kuzma-the-tricky-trickle-down-effect-of-that-hanifin-trade-rumour

He's been linked to Vancouver.  I'm pretty sure that if the Leafs were to call, it would take Nylander. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on June 02, 2018, 11:52:51 AM
This is just too much (it is absolutly not mine):
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/715592
 :o
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 02, 2018, 12:25:14 PM
Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.

Both.

I wonder why Lou was brought to the Island if not to do at least one of those deals -- Friedman's speculated it might be both of them.

Dubas beating Lou to both would be hilarious.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 02, 2018, 12:36:03 PM
I wonder why Lou was brought to the Island if not to do at least one of those deals....

I'm sure Lamoriello was brought in with the hope of the team being able to re-sign Tavares but I don't think you really need to look for reasons as to why NYI would want to bring in more front office people. Fans were literally paying for billboards calling for Garth Snow to be fired.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 02, 2018, 01:47:56 PM
I wonder why Lou was brought to the Island if not to do at least one of those deals....

I'm sure Lamoriello was brought in with the hope of the team being able to re-sign Tavares but I don't think you really need to look for reasons as to why NYI would want to bring in more front office people. Fans were literally paying for billboards calling for Garth Snow to be fired.

Right... but that doesn't explain why Lou instead of other possible front office hires. Insider consensus is that he brings some sort of cachet or gravitas that'll convince Tavares the Islanders are team where you can win.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 02, 2018, 02:02:41 PM
Right... but that doesn't explain why Lou instead of other possible front office hires.

What explains Lamoriello instead of other possible front office hires is that they would want someone with cachet but, given that they haven't fired Snow, not someone who would supplant Snow or seriously look to do so. An AGM or a DPP sort isn't going to satisfy people who think Snow should be fired out of a cannon so they specifically needed a senior adviser type.

Insider consensus is that he brings some sort of cachet or gravitas that'll convince Tavares the Islanders are team where you can win.

Insider consensus was that his magical deal making abilities and hockey knowledge would see the Leafs fleecing other teams while he was here too. Instead we got a lot of "Well, he can't possibly talk Garth Snow out of Travis Hamonic".
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 03, 2018, 10:19:08 PM
Right... but that doesn't explain why Lou instead of other possible front office hires.

What explains Lamoriello instead of other possible front office hires is that they would want someone with cachet but, given that they haven't fired Snow, not someone who would supplant Snow or seriously look to do so. An AGM or a DPP sort isn't going to satisfy people who think Snow should be fired out of a cannon so they specifically needed a senior adviser type.

Is Lou a senior adviser? I thought he was the President of Hockey Ops and left a senior adviser role here.


Insider consensus is that he brings some sort of cachet or gravitas that'll convince Tavares the Islanders are team where you can win.
Insider consensus was that his magical deal making abilities and hockey knowledge would see the Leafs fleecing other teams while he was here too. Instead we got a lot of "Well, he can't possibly talk Garth Snow out of Travis Hamonic".

I'm not saying it's right or it'll work. But I don't see any reason to doubt Friedman reporting his first duty was to begin pitching Tavares, so I think it might be (part of) what the owner had in mins.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2018, 07:23:33 AM
Is Lou a senior adviser? I thought he was the President of Hockey Ops and left a senior adviser role here.

I don't know what his actual title is but I don't think he's above Snow in the food chain.

I'm not saying it's right or it'll work. But I don't see any reason to doubt Friedman reporting his first duty was to begin pitching Tavares, so I think it might be (part of) what the owner had in mins.

Like I said earlier, I'm sure anyone the Islanders would have hired would be expected to help with the Tavares situation. My point was more that there would be ample reason to hire Lamoriello even if the Tavares/Kovalchuk situations didn't exist as a PR move.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on June 04, 2018, 08:29:07 AM
Lamoriello is the president of hockey operations and is definitely above Snow. Per the Islanders: "He will have full authority over all hockey matters with the organization." (https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/coaching-staff)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 04, 2018, 09:12:47 AM
Lamoriello is the president of hockey operations and is definitely above Snow. Per the Islanders: "He will have full authority over all hockey matters with the organization." (https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/coaching-staff)

He's essentially in Shanahan's equivalent seat there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2018, 09:31:14 AM
Lamoriello is the president of hockey operations and is definitely above Snow. Per the Islanders: "He will have full authority over all hockey matters with the organization." (https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/coaching-staff)

Yeah, I'm not sold. Like I said, there's lots of reasons for them to throw fans a bone like that without actually making structural changes and I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense to hire him in that capacity without firing Snow. Unless, as herman says, he's effectively in Shanahan's role which amounts to not really running the club on a day to day basis.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 04, 2018, 09:36:23 AM
"President of hockey operations" can mean different things to different teams. Some teams it's basically the GM. Some teams is an overseerer like Shanny. Some team it's just a glorified "senior adviser" position.

In Lou's case though, I can't imagine he'd take a job like this if it didn't come with full control and where he was essentially the GM as well.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 04, 2018, 09:40:08 AM
Lamoriello is the president of hockey operations and is definitely above Snow. Per the Islanders: "He will have full authority over all hockey matters with the organization." (https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/coaching-staff)

Yeah, I'm not sold. Like I said, there's lots of reasons for them to throw fans a bone like that without actually making structural changes and I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense to hire him in that capacity without firing Snow. Unless, as herman says, he's effectively in Shanahan's role which amounts to not really running the club on a day to day basis.

I'm trying to recall where I heard/read it, but Shanahan said he was happy for Lou getting what appears to be his job but on the Island. Lou, relative to Shanahan, is not known for being hands off managerially.

In any case, Snow is reportedly very difficult to fire because of his contract stipulations, often described as a 'poison-pill' for the new ownership group. Snow deeply admires and emulates Lamoriello though, so this could be a Sith Lord situation.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2018, 09:42:23 AM
In Lou's case though, I can't imagine he'd take a job like this if it didn't come with full control and where he was essentially the GM as well.

If he didn't want to retire and no GM jobs were available? I can. It's a face saving move after getting pushed out by Doogie Howser.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on June 04, 2018, 09:45:23 AM
In Lou's case though, I can't imagine he'd take a job like this if it didn't come with full control and where he was essentially the GM as well.

If he didn't want to retire and no GM jobs were available? I can. It's a face saving move after getting pushed out by Doogie Howser.

Dubie Howser.  ;D
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2018, 09:51:26 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 04, 2018, 10:03:08 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

Which is also what happened when he signed with Toronto after getting punted upstairs in New Jersey.

That being said, the Leafs at the time and the Islanders now have an appetite for the mystique of Lou and whatever that brings to instilling a 'winning culture'.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 04, 2018, 10:07:34 AM
My takeaway from this discussion is that from now on I can refer to our GM as Doogie.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2018, 10:07:59 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

Which is also what happened when he signed with Toronto after getting punted upstairs in New Jersey.

Yes, the "here" in question was Toronto. Apologies if that was unclear.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 04, 2018, 10:13:08 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

Which is also what happened when he signed with Toronto after getting punted upstairs in New Jersey.

Yes, the "here" in question was Toronto. Apologies if that was unclear.

Oh, I see it now. I thought it was more directly related to the Doogie Howser comment, and I probably would've understood it properly with non-textual emphasis. Thank you for clarifying!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 04, 2018, 10:31:25 AM
I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

We of course really don't have any way of actually knowing this, but I think Lou more or less had about as much control as any other GM around the league would. He had a "boss" above him in Shanny but every GM technically does. I remember when he was first hired some of us were like "it's not as if Dubas' voice will be completely drowned out now", but I mean I think it kinda was (at least in some instances).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 04, 2018, 10:37:47 AM
We of course really don't have any way of actually knowing this, but I think Lou more or less had about as much control as any other GM around the league would. He had a "boss" above him in Shanny but every GM technically does. I remember when he was first hired some of us were like "it's not as if Dubas' voice will be completely drowned out now", but I mean I think it kinda was (at least in some instances).

My read on it, which like you say isn't hard fact or anything, was that Lamoriello was sort of like Quinn or Ferguson in as much as they had a fairly broad latitude to make decisions but within a framework they had very little say in controlling. That may be pretty common, I'm guessing most Owners control the general direction of a club through a President or themselves, but I don't think, for example, Lamoriello could have decided to trade Nylander for a more established scorer.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 04, 2018, 11:51:53 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

Which is also what happened when he signed with Toronto after getting punted upstairs in New Jersey.

That being said, the Leafs at the time and the Islanders now have an appetite for the mystique of Lou and whatever that brings to instilling a 'winning culture'.

With the important difference that the Leafs wanted to instill that culture as they rebuilt, while it seems the Islanders are hoping that mystique will make it more likely that they can keep their star player, perhaps draw the supporting cast he needs to think they've got a winning team (Kovalchuk?), and avoid the tear down/ rebuild that Lou oversaw in Toronto. It looks like the Islanders ownership didn't trust that Snow could get this done, so layered over him a President of Hockey Ops who they think can.

So, settling back into the armchair, it'd be fun if Dubas swoops in and signs both Tavares and Kovalchuk. A real Darth Vader striking down Obi Wan scene.

Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.

Both.

Let's do lines:

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Kovalchuk - Tavares - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Johnsson - who cares - Kapanen

Gimme gimme gimme:

Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Kovalchuk - Tavares - Kapanen
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Hyman - whatever - Brown

... or just execute Operation No Third Contracts for Non-Core Pieces a year or so early and trade Hyman and Brown, let graduated Marlies and whatever else Dubas finds make up a slightly more skilled fourth line.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 05, 2018, 01:36:24 PM
I feel like I say this every offseason... but Nino Niederreiter's name is back in trade rumours with Minnesota apparently looking to shake things up. I think he'd be a perfect fit for Matthews on the left side.

They're apparently desperate for a right-shot forward. Of their top-12 scoring forwards this season, only Charlie Coyle shot right and I believe he switches from centre to right wing (that's an absurd stat that I would have never guessed). Could start with a guy like Brown and see how much we need to add to get it done? They also need to cut salary so Brown's pretty appealing in that regard too.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 05, 2018, 01:37:17 PM
I feel like I say this every offseason... but Nino Niederreiter's name is back in trade rumours with Minnesota apparently looking to shake things up. I think he'd be a perfect fit for Matthews on the left side.

He was my centrepiece return from a potential Kessel trade way back when we were trading Kessel.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 05, 2018, 01:45:52 PM
Alex Petrovic (FLA, 26 yr old RHD) is available, according to Bob McKenzie's podcast.

You might remember him as one of the players that Florida protected by going 8 skaters, and trading Vegas Marchessault to steer them into picking Smith.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 06, 2018, 08:46:38 AM
Wait now Ryan OíRielly is being shopped by the Sabres? Tavares consolation prize!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2018, 09:01:41 AM
Wait now Ryan OíRielly is being shopped by the Sabres? Tavares consolation prize!

For other teams after we sign Tavares, sure.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 06, 2018, 09:10:19 AM

Yeah, Buffalo would almost certainly give the Leafs a really sweet deal on that one.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on June 06, 2018, 09:14:11 AM
Wait now Ryan OíRielly is being shopped by the Sabres? Tavares consolation prize!

For other teams after we sign Tavares, sure.

Yeah, Buffalo would almost certainly give the Leafs a really sweet deal on that one.

I'm with this.  I'd rather go the Tavares route since it involves nothing but money rather than trying to trade with a team in your own division who will do you no favors.

(I don't think we're getting either player)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 06, 2018, 09:29:59 AM
RO'R was destined to be traded once he told the media he lost his love for the game because of the Sabres' situation, not after he drunkenly rammed his car into a donut shop and walked away from the scene.

Carolina might take a big swing on him, as they're not going to be able to afford Tavares dollars, but have lots of pieces they apparently want to get rid of because of all that pent up trade-rage from years of Francis' inactivity.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2018, 09:36:56 AM
Carolina might take a big swing on him, as they're not going to be able to afford Tavares dollars, but have lots of pieces they apparently want to get rid of because of all that pent up trade-rage from years of Francis' inactivity.

Something revolving around Hanifin for ROR would probably suit both teams pretty well.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 06, 2018, 10:34:19 AM
Carolina might take a big swing on him, as they're not going to be able to afford Tavares dollars, but have lots of pieces they apparently want to get rid of because of all that pent up trade-rage from years of Francis' inactivity.

Something revolving around Hanifin for ROR would probably suit both teams pretty well.

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2018/6/5/17428356/examining-carolina-hurricanes-as-a-potential-trade-partner-for-ryan-oreilly-buffalo-sabres

So they've already fired up the articles about this, aside from picking the wrong players to target.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2018, 10:40:47 AM
So they've already fired up the articles about this, aside from picking the wrong players to target.

I just read the bit in that article about how they wrote Hanifin probably wouldn't be on the table because of ROR's cap hit. I don't think Sabres fans understand how good O'Reilly is.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 06, 2018, 10:50:58 AM
So they've already fired up the articles about this, aside from picking the wrong players to target.

I just read the bit in that article about how they wrote Hanifin probably wouldn't be on the table because of ROR's cap hit. I don't think Sabres fans understand how good O'Reilly is.

Semi-hoping their management group also doesn't understand.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on June 06, 2018, 10:54:26 AM
Wait now Ryan OíRielly is being shopped by the Sabres? Tavares consolation prize!

For other teams after we sign Tavares, sure.

Yeah, Buffalo would almost certainly give the Leafs a really sweet deal on that one.

I'm with this.  I'd rather go the Tavares route since it involves nothing but money rather than trying to trade with a team in your own division who will do you no favors.

(I don't think we're getting either player)
I wouldn't be giving up non-cash assets for forward help. I would for defensive help though.

I think Buf should do everything in their power to make this guy happy and keep him. He plays a tonne and takes more faceoffs then anyone.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: louisstamos on June 06, 2018, 01:27:43 PM

Who is it for Leafs fans?  Kapanen?  Brown?  Nylander?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 06, 2018, 01:32:00 PM
Who is it for Leafs fans?  Kapanen?  Brown?  Nylander?

One of Brown or Kapanen, yeah. I think a lot of people would balk at trading Nylander unless something huge was coming back.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2018, 01:37:40 PM
He expands on what he means by "line" a little more here:


So I think for us Kapanen and Johnsson would be above the "Hagg line" (i.e. they're available players but we don't want to trade them even if it could help our team) while Brown is below it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 11, 2018, 02:59:52 PM
Elliotte Friedman noted that the Leafs are searching for a 3C in his latest 31 Thoughts (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-vegas-thinking-re-visiting-erik-karlsson-deal/).

Nic Petan's agent all but said his client needs a change of scenery. He's a LW/C on the smaller side, but a very skilled and creative playmaker, mired for the past two seasons either to the 4th line with Chris Thorburn (their lesser Matt Martin) and Brandon Tanev (stonier hands than Hyman), or the press box.

(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/WPG/petanni95)

Honestly, I'm not even sure what Matthews could've done with those two.

https://jetsnation.ca/2017/10/02/time-for-the-jets-to-do-right-by-nic-petan/

Jets are looking for LD, of which we have plenty. If they're looking for a defensive 4th line centre, Frederic Gauthier fits the bill.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on June 11, 2018, 06:33:30 PM
So, no Bozak?


 ;)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 12, 2018, 10:57:02 AM
Both LeBrun and Dreger don't have Toronto on the list of teams that are currently in on Kovalchuk.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Boston Leaf on June 12, 2018, 11:10:23 AM
Both LeBrun and Dreger don't have Toronto on the list of teams that are currently in on Kovalchuk.

Good
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 12, 2018, 12:44:29 PM
PPP is suggesting the Leafs chase Skinner from the 'Canes.

The suggestion is a first and a decent prospect...for one year of Skinner at $5.75m.

I'm not sure how I feel about this, but that seems like a lot, given his contract status, given he's a UFA after this coming season.

The stated rationale is that the Leafs likely won't be able to land a strong centre or defenseman with that kind of package, and therefore they should be in on Skinner.  I'm kind of thinking that if the Leafs don't really need help at the wing, then just keep the pick and prospect until they can find a deal for a d-man or C that they need.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on June 14, 2018, 03:39:12 PM
So, no Bozak?


 ;)
Jason Spezza could be a decent C assuming he gets bought out?

Apparently, DUBINSKY is a buyout candidate as well.

I think either would be a decent replacement of Bozak and the term and dollars should be manageable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 15, 2018, 10:05:23 AM

I'm not Gus, but I'm pretty sure I've said this thread before.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 15, 2018, 12:22:38 PM

I'm not Gus, but I'm pretty sure I've said this thread before.

I don't mean to be too critical here, but define "#3"...and then tell me how you accumulate 6 of them.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 15, 2018, 01:22:10 PM
I don't mean to be too critical here, but define "#3"...and then tell me how you accumulate 6 of them.

Good defensemen that aren't Hedman/Doughty/Karlsson-money can be drafted and developed quite readily without lottery picks. Dermott and Liljegren are projected for that range of potential and Liljegren has the ceiling to exceed it. Honestly, Zaitsev qualifies too (#4) and is only derided for the contract he was signed to. We're already sitting on Rielly and Gardiner who are on the upper end of that 2nd tier offensively.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 15, 2018, 01:52:06 PM
I don't mean to be too critical here, but define "#3"...and then tell me how you accumulate 6 of them.

Good defensemen that aren't Hedman/Doughty/Karlsson-money can be drafted and developed quite readily without lottery picks. Dermott and Liljegren are projected for that range of potential and Liljegren has the ceiling to exceed it. Honestly, Zaitsev qualifies too (#4) and is only derided for the contract he was signed to. We're already sitting on Rielly and Gardiner who are on the upper end of that 2nd tier offensively.

I think there's a cap allocation program there though, right?

I mean, you can put $10m into a guy that plays 25 mins a night, and skimp on your bottom pairing.  But icing a corps of 6 X $4m-$5m puts you in ~$27m tied up in defense.

And this is exacerbated by the fact that this strategy has to include "putting your resources into high skill forwards", which then will mean more $$ tied up in forwards.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 15, 2018, 02:44:09 PM

When has having a real Norris contender type ever been required to build a competitive team? The Leafs of the late 90's, early 2000's didn't have anyone like that and they were plenty competitive. Heck, all sorts of teams have had one-off deep playoff runs with downright mediocre defenses.

Competition, here we come.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 15, 2018, 02:51:08 PM
I think there's a cap allocation program there though, right?

I mean, you can put $10m into a guy that plays 25 mins a night, and skimp on your bottom pairing.  But icing a corps of 6 X $4m-$5m puts you in ~$27m tied up in defense.

And this is exacerbated by the fact that this strategy has to include "putting your resources into high skill forwards", which then will mean more $$ tied up in forwards.

That's not untrue, but it's not like all 6 of them will be on their second/third contracts at the same time. It's most likely you'll be paying UFA level money for 1 or 2 (keepers), RFA contract money for 3-4, and ELC money for 1-2.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 15, 2018, 03:01:01 PM

There are even some notable cup winners. The '90 Oilers, '93 Canadiens, '04 Lightning, '06 Canes...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 15, 2018, 03:30:54 PM

There are even some notable cup winners. The '90 Oilers, '93 Canadiens, '04 Lightning, '06 Canes...

So once every 14 years or so.  Leafs are almost guaranteed to win it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 15, 2018, 03:43:40 PM
So once every 14 years or so.  Leafs are almost guaranteed to win it.

Nah, there are other examples. The '96 Avs and '99 Stars depending on how you see Sandis Ozolinsh and Sergei Zubov. Then there's the '95 Devils where Niedermayer wasn't yet in his prime and Stevens was into the "World's Greatest #2D" phase of his career. Then you've got the first and third Crosby/Malkin cups.

Thing is you could probably make similar lists about any one thing in isolation. #1C or a superstar goalie...there have been a bunch of teams winning the Stanley Cup without them either. Teams can win a Stanley Cup with weaknesses but they usually have some crazy edge elsewhere to compensate whether it's multiple HOF level C's or all-time great goalies or what have you.

So it's not that it's not true, it's that it's true of everything. The idea behind targeting a #1C or #1D or whatever has never been that they were fundamental necessities for a certain level of success, but that you wanted to do whatever you could to increase your chances. Those are good things to have. Not having them requires something exceptional elsewhere.

The problem then becomes that we might remember the '06 Canes or '90 Oilers but we don't remember the 9 or 10 teams every year that were similarly flawed who didn't win the Cup. If you build a flawed team the odds are tremendously against having huge success but possible? Sure.

Especially nowadays. The only thing required to win a cup is a pretty good team and some timely goalkeeping. It's not much of a target but that's what it is. It's not best practices or anything but, heck, anyone can roll a hard 8.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 15, 2018, 03:51:28 PM
So basically, it's good to have a 1D, but no need to blow up the prospect cupboards or splurge for one on the free market unless you're in a position to do so, and better to just draft your darndest and develop them in house?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 15, 2018, 03:53:18 PM
So basically, it's good to have a 1D, but no need to blow up the prospect cupboards or splurge for one on the free market unless you're in a position to do so, and better to just draft your darndest and develop them in house?

Heck man, there's no need at all. True happiness comes from within, not shiny metal trophies.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 15, 2018, 04:15:18 PM
Nik's drunk again guys.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 15, 2018, 04:21:16 PM
Nik's drunk again guys.

Oh Frank, you know as well as I do it was Lao Tzu who said that we should be content with what we have and rejoice in the way things are. Once we realize that there is nothing lacking, the whole world is ours.

All this time, the true Stanley Cup was in our hearts.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 15, 2018, 04:27:09 PM
So once every 14 years or so.  Leafs are almost guaranteed to win it.

Nah, there are other examples. The '96 Avs and '99 Stars depending on how you see Sandis Ozolinsh and Sergei Zubov. Then there's the '95 Devils where Niedermayer wasn't yet in his prime and Stevens was into the "World's Greatest #2D" phase of his career. Then you've got the first and third Crosby/Malkin cups.

Thing is you could probably make similar lists about any one thing in isolation. #1C or a superstar goalie...there have been a bunch of teams winning the Stanley Cup without them either. Teams can win a Stanley Cup with weaknesses but they usually have some crazy edge elsewhere to compensate whether it's multiple HOF level C's or all-time great goalies or what have you.

So it's not that it's not true, it's that it's true of everything. The idea behind targeting a #1C or #1D or whatever has never been that they were fundamental necessities for a certain level of success, but that you wanted to do whatever you could to increase your chances. Those are good things to have. Not having them requires something exceptional elsewhere.

The problem then becomes that we might remember the '06 Canes or '90 Oilers but we don't remember the 9 or 10 teams every year that were similarly flawed who didn't win the Cup. If you build a flawed team the odds are tremendously against having huge success but possible? Sure.

Especially nowadays. The only thing required to win a cup is a pretty good team and some timely goalkeeping. It's not much of a target but that's what it is. It's not best practices or anything but, heck, anyone can roll a hard 8.

I'll always remember the San Jose Sharks.   

Also great quote by Alexander Daigle after being drafted first overall.  "I'm glad I got drafted first, because no one remembers number two."

It was Chris Pronger.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 15, 2018, 10:43:21 PM
So once every 14 years or so.  Leafs are almost guaranteed to win it.
Nah, there are other examples. The '96 Avs and '99 Stars depending on how you see Sandis Ozolinsh and Sergei Zubov. Then there's the '95 Devils where Niedermayer wasn't yet in his prime and Stevens was into the "World's Greatest #2D" phase of his career. Then you've got the first and third Crosby/Malkin cups.

Pens '17 (or was it '16), Caps '18... although maybe I'm behind on how we rate Carlson?


Thing is you could probably make similar lists about any one thing in isolation. #1C or a superstar goalie...there have been a bunch of teams winning the Stanley Cup without them either. Teams can win a Stanley Cup with weaknesses but they usually have some crazy edge elsewhere to compensate whether it's multiple HOF level C's or all-time great goalies or what have you.

I think that's probably the main thing. Compensate for your weakness by having some ridiculous strength elsewhere to compensate. Once it was clear the Leafs were done drafting in the superstar spot (top 5 or so?) and didn't really knock it out of the park with Rielly, I think we all realized their edge would have to be at forward -- if they, in fact, have an edge. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 15, 2018, 10:49:45 PM
Pens '17 (or was it '16), Caps '18... although maybe I'm behind on how we rate Carlson?

Yeah, I mentioned the third Crosby/Malkin cup.


I think that's probably the main thing. Compensate for your weakness by having some ridiculous strength elsewhere to compensate. Once it was clear the Leafs were done drafting in the superstar spot (top 5 or so?) and didn't really knock it out of the park with Rielly, I think we all realized their edge would have to be at forward -- if they, in fact, have an edge. Time will tell.

Well, you say that but unless you're counting on Matthews/Marner to be Crosby/Malkin(who established themselves as Crosby/Malkin pretty early in their careers) then by "edge" at forward you're probably talking about depth and I'm not sure there's an example of a really successful team without stars in net or on the blueline and who won because of a lot of forward depth.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 16, 2018, 02:56:31 AM
Well, you say that but unless you're counting on Matthews/Marner to be Crosby/Malkin(who established themselves as Crosby/Malkin pretty early in their careers) then by "edge" at forward you're probably talking about depth and I'm not sure there's an example of a really successful team without stars in net or on the blueline and who won because of a lot of forward depth.

Well, I'm not "counting on" anything and think it's as likely as not that they end up like the Sharks... but, if not, a combo of the two, maybe? The Leafs won't be the VGK. They'll have stars at forward, but maybe not generational talents... Matthews + Marner won't be Crosby + Malkin, but what if you throw in a Nylander? -- and maybe you've got stars but not HoFers and depth. Plus a blue line that isn't "weak" (like Pittsburgh last year) but generally fine in the way Gus described (platoon of great to ok #3s). 

I think your initial post made the point that you can find examples of plenty of ways of winning, if you pick one thing and isolate it. There's probably a path forward for the Leafs. It won't involve having Drew Doughty or Sidney Crosby or anyone in their ballpark. But it's not a bad thing -- thinking as a fan who likes watching teams get built -- that they have a core with some very good pieces -- great, even, if we allow the term for folks who don't reach Crosby/Malkin heights -- and now a GM who seems focused on optimizing everything you don't just luck into by sucking hard enough and winning the ping pong balls at the right time.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 16, 2018, 03:01:45 PM
I think your initial post made the point that you can find examples of plenty of ways of winning, if you pick one thing and isolate it.

I suppose so except one thing I think you'd be hard pressed to find would be an example of winning where the team didn't have anything particularly exceptional about them. Again, those Penguins won with that defense but with guys like Crosby/Malkin, not just stars. The late 90's Red Wings won with Chris Osgood, but also with one of the best rosters ever assembled. '93 Habs didn't really have any superstars...except the guy in net. Remember that "ridiculous strength" you mentioned. That seems like a requirement and some stars and depth isn't a ridiculous strength. That's something that, like I said, has been had by lots and lots and lots of teams that haven't won and very, very few who have, if any.

Really the only example I can think of a team winning without any sort of generational talents is the '06 Hurricanes(and maybe the '04 Lightning). Which is kind of a flukey win in a flukey year. Even still it's aiming pretty low.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 17, 2018, 11:24:10 PM
I think your initial post made the point that you can find examples of plenty of ways of winning, if you pick one thing and isolate it.

I suppose so except one thing I think you'd be hard pressed to find would be an example of winning where the team didn't have anything particularly exceptional about them. Again, those Penguins won with that defense but with guys like Crosby/Malkin, not just stars. The late 90's Red Wings won with Chris Osgood, but also with one of the best rosters ever assembled. '93 Habs didn't really have any superstars...except the guy in net. Remember that "ridiculous strength" you mentioned. That seems like a requirement and some stars and depth isn't a ridiculous strength. That's something that, like I said, has been had by lots and lots and lots of teams that haven't won and very, very few who have, if any.

Really the only example I can think of a team winning without any sort of generational talents is the '06 Hurricanes(and maybe the '04 Lightning). Which is kind of a flukey win in a flukey year. Even still it's aiming pretty low.

In those years, the Lightning and Carolina had players that elevated to the point where they were in the conversation for being among the best at their position.  Staal in the case of the Hurricanes and Martin St. Louis in Tampa.

The case for the Leafs could be that while they don't have consistent generational talents like Malkin and Crosby, it could be that if Nylander, Matthews, and Marner all have their best years over the same time period, then that might give the Leafs an edge.  If Rielly and Andersen also have their best years in that time frame as well, then it would only increase their chances.

However, that's a pretty big if, and far from a certainty, and it could also go the other way where Matthews has a good year, but Marner and Nylander don't, or Nylander and Marner have a good year, and Matthews doesn't.  This is what happened to them during that last two playoffs.  Marner was pretty good, but Nylander and Matthews had a bad series against the Bruins.  Last year, Matthews was pretty good against the Caps, but Marner looked pretty invisible.   

When you have stars like Crosby and Malkin, where you can pencil them in as being among the most dominate players in the game, then you increase your chances of winning a cup.  It really takes the strength of a team to power them through in the playoffs.  For example, the years where Crosby was hurt, or where Malking wasn't at the dominate level he is at now, the Penguins didn't have great playoffs. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 18, 2018, 04:10:40 PM
From:
https://www.tsn.ca/talent/draft-week-countdown-top-3-priorities-for-canada-s-7-1.1115928

3. Save Smitty: A bona-fide backup is critical for 36-year-old . Itís not a stretch to the say that Calgaryís playoff hopes were extinguished with a quarter season of  between the pipes with a .904 save percentage.

McBackup would look good in Red.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 18, 2018, 06:54:32 PM
The case for the Leafs could be that while they don't have consistent generational talents like Malkin and Crosby, it could be that if Nylander, Matthews, and Marner all have their best years over the same time period, then that might give the Leafs an edge.  If Rielly and Andersen also have their best years in that time frame as well, then it would only increase their chances.

But that makes it sound as if you're reading this "edge" we're talking about as just anything that a team might have that will help them win. But in this scenario, where Nylander, Marner and Matthews all have big seasons at once...is that significantly different than what Boston got this year from their big 3 forwards? Or Washington from theirs? Or Tampa? Or Winnipeg? We agreed it's probably not what Pittsburgh got from theirs so it's an edge on what? It seems like having three good forwards having big years is effectively the minimum requirement for a team being in the league's top 8, not something that gives you a leg-up on everyone else.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 19, 2018, 10:25:53 AM
The case for the Leafs could be that while they don't have consistent generational talents like Malkin and Crosby, it could be that if Nylander, Matthews, and Marner all have their best years over the same time period, then that might give the Leafs an edge.  If Rielly and Andersen also have their best years in that time frame as well, then it would only increase their chances.

But that makes it sound as if you're reading this "edge" we're talking about as just anything that a team might have that will help them win. But in this scenario, where Nylander, Marner and Matthews all have big seasons at once...is that significantly different than what Boston got this year from their big 3 forwards? Or Washington from theirs? Or Tampa? Or Winnipeg? We agreed it's probably not what Pittsburgh got from theirs so it's an edge on what? It seems like having three good forwards having big years is effectively the minimum requirement for a team being in the league's top 8, not something that gives you a leg-up on everyone else.

I guess I can't quantify what is needed to put a team over the top.  Take the Leafs from this year for example.   How are the standings different, and where do the Leafs end up if the following is true:

Matthews plays 82 games, has 50 goals and gets 95 points
Nylander plays 82 games and gets 90 points
Marner plays 82 games and gets 88 points

These are just random numbers that I am throwing out there, but having three players on a team that are dominate like that is something that doesn't happen very often.  That's Pittsburgh territory.  So if it all of that happens this past year, and the rest of the team stayed at the levels that they did ( forgetting that there is probably an impact elsewhere on the team to JVR and Kadri ), how far do you envision this team making it.  When I say big years, that's what I am thinking from Marner, Nylander, and Matthews.  I think they have the talent to hit those numbers at least once in their careers.  I just don't think that they can do it consistently year after year.   

Other things do com in to play here.  For example Boston's perceived shortcoming was that their offence was on one line, that the big three had to play together in order to produce.  That's different than Pittsburgh's big three that can produce on different lines. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 19, 2018, 10:29:08 AM
Matthews plays 82 games, has 50 goals and gets 95 points
Nylander plays 82 games and gets 90 points
Marner plays 82 games and gets 88 points

Again, I think that's a situation that would have them among the teams with the best three forwards in the league, not a step or two above that.

But also, and this is where just raw point totals aren't a ton of help, is that one year of producing like Malkin-Crosby-Kessel isn't necessarily the same of one year of that level of play.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 19, 2018, 11:01:49 AM
Matthews plays 82 games, has 50 goals and gets 95 points
Nylander plays 82 games and gets 90 points
Marner plays 82 games and gets 88 points

Again, I think that's a situation that would have them among the teams with the best three forwards in the league, not a step or two above that.

I agree with you that this is the sort of best case scenario that the Leafs can hope for.  Unless the luck out and get a bonafide #1 dman from somewhere, then they have to hope that this sort of thing happens in a year or for a couple of years, and in that one of those years the chips sort of fall in the Leafs favor and they get to the cup final.  I'm just saying that a case could be made that if Marner, Nylander, Matthews all have one or two seasons where they are considered among the most dominate forwards in the League, than in those one or two seasons then the Leafs could probably be considered a cup contender. 

Is that better than building a team that has strength throughout the roster and a league wide top end player at every position.  Not in my mind, no.  I agree with what you have said in the past, which is to paraphrase a bit, it's about maximizing your chances and having the largest possible window to win a cup year in and year out over an extended period.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 19, 2018, 11:35:04 AM
I'm just saying that a case could be made that if Marner, Nylander, Matthews all have one or two seasons where they are considered among the most dominate forwards in the League, than in those one or two seasons then the Leafs could probably be considered a cup contender. 

Right but what I'm saying is that a year where Matthews/Nylander/Marner combine to score 260-270 points or so is almost certainly going to be the result of one of two things:

1) Those three have progressed to the point where those point totals are genuine reflections of who they are as players

2) It's kind of flukey and they're playing above their heads(or their shooting percentages are abnormally high or what have you)

If it's the former, then they basically are the Penguins. And I don't think it's the sort of thing that would fade out or not be a threat to happen again and again. That would be good.

If it's the latter though, I don't think that really makes them contenders in any meaningful sense. The team might have a lot of points and have a high seed but I still think they'd be weaker in most areas, significantly so in some case, than most cup winners are.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 19, 2018, 12:21:32 PM
2) It's kind of flukey and they're playing above their heads(or their shooting percentages are abnormally high or what have you)

If it's the latter though, I don't think that really makes them contenders in any meaningful sense. The team might have a lot of points and have a high seed but I still think they'd be weaker in most areas, significantly so in some case, than most cup winners are.

I guess where I have a difference of opinion on this is that I don't know if it's really all that flukey.  I think players can progress, and have career years for a variety of reasons, and then maintain that level for a couple of years, and then fall back to the pack.  Players like Modano, Gilmour, Messier in my mind fall in to this category.  They had a couple of years where they were right at the top of the heap, and their teams benefited from it.  In the Modano and Messier cases, their teams won cups, and in the Gilmour case, well not so much.  To me this is the difference between the very good, and the all time great sort of players.  The all time greats do it year after year after year.  I expect Matthews, Marner and Nylander to have a couple dominate years in the league, where they are considered among the best in the league at their positions.  I just don't know if they will all be at the same time.   

I also don't think that just because Marner, Matthews, and Nylander have great years, that it means that the team is probably weaker in other areas.  As I pointed out earlier, the Leafs this year had a pretty good year, and the big three were no where near a Crosby, Malkin, Kessel level.  So if they had bumped their performance levels up to those levels, and they were insulated by the likes of a Kadri, JVR, Bozak, Rielly, Gardiner, and  Andersen, then I could see that team going far.  Even in that first round, if Matthews, Nylander and Andersen show up for the complete series, they probably make it through to the next round.

Would I say they are definite cup winners?  No probably not, but I also wouldn't be completely shocked if they made it all the way.  I would agree though, that it will be harder to have the kind of scoring depth that the Leafs have right now moving forward because of the cap, and if Marner, Matthews and Nylander have a couple of years like a Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel, then they are going to want to get paid like it.  Really, they haven't at all at this point in their careers, and there is talk that they want to be paid like it anyways.     
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 19, 2018, 05:47:11 PM
I guess where I have a difference of opinion on this is that I don't know if it's really all that flukey.  I think players can progress, and have career years for a variety of reasons, and then maintain that level for a couple of years, and then fall back to the pack.  Players like Modano, Gilmour, Messier in my mind fall in to this category.  They had a couple of years where they were right at the top of the heap, and their teams benefited from it.  In the Modano and Messier cases, their teams won cups, and in the Gilmour case, well not so much.  To me this is the difference between the very good, and the all time great sort of players.  The all time greats do it year after year after year.  I expect Matthews, Marner and Nylander to have a couple dominate years in the league, where they are considered among the best in the league at their positions.  I just don't know if they will all be at the same time.

I think you're kind of misinterpreting what I'm saying there. It's not that any upswing in production is necessarily a fluke but rather that if those three have years like that it's either the result of something flukey(which is why point totals aren't a great metric) or a genuine reflection of their play(which is good but would be the Crosby/Malkin model, if only for a short time). You seem to be saying that if those three all have years at the same time where they're legitimately among the best players in the league that would put the Leafs into contender-hood. I don't necessarily disagree but I think that the odds of all of that lining up(all three being guys who have a few years where they legitimately play over their heads and all of those years lining up exactly) seem like we're doing that "So you're saying there's a chance" thing from Dumb and Dumber.

I'm not entirely with you on the examples though. Here's my take on them:

1) Modano makes the least sense to me. There's nothing about his 98-99 season that's unusual at all production-wise. In fact, in the 8 years from 95-96 to 02-03 Modano never had a full season under 77 points or above 85. In the year Dallas won the Cup, he was smack dab in the middle of that with 81 points. It seems to me that Dallas' cup has less to do with Modano elevating his game than it does with things like bringing in a couple of big deal additions in Hull and particularly Belfour.

2) The '90 Oilers really strike me as more of an example about how flukey things can happen more than anything else. It was a really weird year. 3 of the final 4 teams had 90 points or less(including Washington with 78 points). I also kind of wonder if Messier's big year is really a question of him having the best year of his life vs. just a difference in opportunities from being the #1 guy instead of the the #2. I'm not sure, in context, his year that year is really a big step up from the rest of his time in Edmonton.

3) I guess Gilmour fits the best into that but I can't help but feel like we remember that season a little rosier than is maybe warranted. Gilmour certainly was great that year but I'm not sure anyone would really think he was nudging up against Lemieux and Gretzky. He finished 2nd in Hart voting, sure, but a lot of that was narrative driven. He wasn't a 1st or 2nd team all-star.

I also don't think that just because Marner, Matthews, and Nylander have great years, that it means that the team is probably weaker in other areas. 

To use your example, if Marner/Matthews/Nylander were so superhumanly great this year that the Leafs won the cup then I don't think there's any real question that the defense would still be considered one of the worst defenses to have won a cup and Andersen one of the more mediocre goalies to do so.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 19, 2018, 10:17:11 PM
I think you're kind of misinterpreting what I'm saying there. It's not that any upswing in production is necessarily a fluke but rather that if those three have years like that it's either the result of something flukey(which is why point totals aren't a great metric) or a genuine reflection of their play(which is good but would be the Crosby/Malkin model, if only for a short time). You seem to be saying that if those three all have years at the same time where they're legitimately among the best players in the league that would put the Leafs into contender-hood. I don't necessarily disagree but I think that the odds of all of that lining up(all three being guys who have a few years where they legitimately play over their heads and all of those years lining up exactly) seem like we're doing that "So you're saying there's a chance" thing from Dumb and Dumber.

Yep, totally misunderstood you.  I thought you were saying that if Matthews, Marner and Nylander elevated to that point that it was probably due to a fluke.  Sorry about that.

Although, all I am taking from that above paragraph is that you are saying that there's a chance.

I'm not entirely with you on the examples though. Here's my take on them:

1) Modano makes the least sense to me. There's nothing about his 98-99 season that's unusual at all production-wise. In fact, in the 8 years from 95-96 to 02-03 Modano never had a full season under 77 points or above 85. In the year Dallas won the Cup, he was smack dab in the middle of that with 81 points. It seems to me that Dallas' cup has less to do with Modano elevating his game than it does with things like bringing in a couple of big deal additions in Hull and particularly Belfour.

I'm probably just getting caught up in what the major story lines were at the time of Dallas's cup win.  Belfour was definitely a big part of that, and my examples are a little simplistic because no one player wins a cup.  You need other pieces on the team.  I just remember when they won the cup reporters talking about how much Modano had elevated, and that he was the reason they were there.  When they went back to the cup final and lost to the Devils, it was all on the back of Ed Belfour, at least according to the reporting at the time.

2) The '90 Oilers really strike me as more of an example about how flukey things can happen more than anything else. It was a really weird year. 3 of the final 4 teams had 90 points or less(including Washington with 78 points). I also kind of wonder if Messier's big year is really a question of him having the best year of his life vs. just a difference in opportunities from being the #1 guy instead of the the #2. I'm not sure, in context, his year that year is really a big step up from the rest of his time in Edmonton.

So for this one, I actually meant the Oilers one, and the Rangers one.  I know that the Oilers one is the more flukey of the two, but the Rangers one, I really feel that they win that cup on the backs of Messier, Leetch and Richter.  I guess a young Zubov, who had his best season that year, was also there.  Still I don't think that was the deepest team.  Again I was maybe a little too simplistic in this example, as it was more than Messier.   

3) I guess Gilmour fits the best into that but I can't help but feel like we remember that season a little rosier than is maybe warranted. Gilmour certainly was great that year but I'm not sure anyone would really think he was nudging up against Lemieux and Gretzky. He finished 2nd in Hart voting, sure, but a lot of that was narrative driven. He wasn't a 1st or 2nd team all-star.

Yeah, and I didn't really quantify it well when I was marking the argument, but I was thinking more of the example as "is in the conversation of being one of the best players at their position".  That should have been a caveat though that during the late 80's and early 90's that meant that you were in the conversation with the group of players immediately after Gretzky and Lemieux. 

To use your example, if Marner/Matthews/Nylander were so superhumanly great this year that the Leafs won the cup then I don't think there's any real question that the defense would still be considered one of the worst defenses to have won a cup and Andersen one of the more mediocre goalies to do so.

True, if the Leafs won the Cup, you would probably have to lump them in with Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tampa defence/goalie groupings that won the cup in years past.   You know the more we discuss this, the more I am sure that we are just watching a reboot of the 1999 - 2004 Toronto Maple Leafs. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 19, 2018, 10:36:48 PM
True, if the Leafs won the Cup, you would probably have to lump them in with Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tampa defence/goalie groupings that won the cup in years past.   You know the more we discuss this, the more I am sure that we are just watching a reboot of the 1999 - 2004 Toronto Maple Leafs.

Which, you know, isn't the worst thing in the world. The modern NHL doesn't have the super teams it used to. There are no Avs or Red Wings that are multiple HOFers deep at the key positions any more. If the 2003 Leafs were dropped into the modern NHL they'd have a puncher's chance.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 20, 2018, 08:38:25 AM
True, if the Leafs won the Cup, you would probably have to lump them in with Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tampa defence/goalie groupings that won the cup in years past.   You know the more we discuss this, the more I am sure that we are just watching a reboot of the 1999 - 2004 Toronto Maple Leafs.

Which, you know, isn't the worst thing in the world. The modern NHL doesn't have the super teams it used to. There are no Avs or Red Wings that are multiple HOFers deep at the key positions any more. If the 2003 Leafs were dropped into the modern NHL they'd have a puncher's chance.

When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 20, 2018, 11:21:24 AM
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

I sort of came to worry about this as well, but I can't say the Leafs really paid the price I thought they would. Get a proven goalie to keep you out of the basement, and you'll miss out on the high pick needed to get a defenseman with a really high ceiling... and then they landed Liljegren, who had been ranked in the top 5 and seems to have all the skill level to be what we need. So, I don't know.

Maybe without Andersen they wouldn't've held on to the UFAs, and so had another 2 or 3 picks in the 20-60 range. But those guys wouldn't be ready for a years, and no one assessing whether they were year-in, year-out favorites would be looking at them. That judgment would be made on the core assembled with those high picks: Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Nylander, Kadri, Liljegren.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2018, 12:14:27 PM
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

You only thought that because you've been influenced by the greatest thinkers of our time:

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0 (http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 20, 2018, 12:20:12 PM
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

You only thought that because you've been influenced by the greatest thinkers of our time:

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0 (http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0)

And all this time I was trying not to be a sheeple.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 20, 2018, 12:28:04 PM
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

I sort of came to worry about this as well, but I can't say the Leafs really paid the price I thought they would. Get a proven goalie to keep you out of the basement, and you'll miss out on the high pick needed to get a defenseman with a really high ceiling... and then they landed Liljegren, who had been ranked in the top 5 and seems to have all the skill level to be what we need. So, I don't know.

Maybe without Andersen they wouldn't've held on to the UFAs, and so had another 2 or 3 picks in the 20-60 range. But those guys wouldn't be ready for a years, and no one assessing whether they were year-in, year-out favorites would be looking at them. That judgment would be made on the core assembled with those high picks: Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Nylander, Kadri, Liljegren.

I think the issue is that when you have multiple top five picks, chances are you can get a surefire, top end player at a position.  You remove the whole "seems to be" from the equation.  The minute you start saying "if" is where the problems start.  That when you have to hope that things pan out, and if they don't pan out, that's when you are in trouble.  You want to give yourself the highest chance that you can get the things that you need to be competitive. 

It's like the Phil Kessel years, where people would say that the way the Leafs were going to address their first line center problems were by drafting Pavel Datsyuk in the 6th round.  That just doesn't happen with a high frequency, so you can't really count on it.  Did the Leafs draft a bonafide first line center in those years in the later rounds?  No.  Do you know where the Leafs got a legitimate first line center from?  The 1st overall pick.

So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?     
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: skrackle on June 20, 2018, 01:23:27 PM
When the Leafs hired Lou Lamoriello, they started diverting from Shanahan's talk of patience, rebuilding properly etc. Yes, Lamoriello did get rid of Dion Phaneuf and thank you Lou for that. But that's when the "we found ourselves further ahead than we thought we'd be" talk started.

Are the Leafs further ahead than pre-Lamoriello? Well, you'd have to say yes, considering they went from last overall to a franchise record regular season points total in a couple of seasons. In too many ways though, they jumped the gun on finishing the rebuild. They will no longer get high draft picks by being a bad team. UFAs? Tavares would be nice, but I wouldn't be betting on him signing with the Leafs. They haven't built enough depth to make a big trade without weakening the team in another area.

I can't see Frederic Andersen as the long term answer in goal. He's inconsistent; wildly so at times, but he's often hung out to dry by poor defensive play. The defense-roster and team play- needs so much work. Beyond that, the Leafs just don't seem like a team that's built for the playoffs.

They do seem like a team that was fortunate to draft a few highly skilled offensive players. You need a few of those to win, so that's good. I do still have optimism that this team can do something, but Dubas has his work cut out.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 20, 2018, 01:28:45 PM
So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?   

I'm just not convinced rushing things really cost them that player who has greater odds of panning out to fill a need. Would the Leafs be much closer if they'd tanked in 2017 and got Cale Makar or Miro Heiskanen instead of Liljegren?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 20, 2018, 01:44:49 PM
Are the Leafs further ahead than pre-Lamoriello? Well, you'd have to say yes, considering they went from last overall to a franchise record regular season points total in a couple of seasons. In too many ways though, they jumped the gun on finishing the rebuild. They will no longer get high draft picks by being a bad team. UFAs? Tavares would be nice, but I wouldn't be betting on him signing with the Leafs. They haven't built enough depth to make a big trade without weakening the team in another area.

Andersen contributed to their emerging from the basement sooner than you'd like, but so did the decade or so getting pretty high picks. I've said this elsewhere, but there really aren't many teams that drafted as high and for as long as the Leafs did -- and with relatively few busts (none if you consider we turned a bust into a 30-goal winger). It's possible that all those high picks just meant that they weren't bad enough to pick top 5 again after they got Matthews. Of course, that might doom us to be being the Caps (until last week) or San Jose.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on June 20, 2018, 02:03:20 PM
What's a realistic package for Karlsson? Nylander, a first and second round pick? I would flip a lot of assets for a Doughty or a Karlsson.

I would prefer signing them as UFA but these guys will likely be resigned or traded before it comes to that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 20, 2018, 06:53:00 PM
So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?   

And even then, I think it's important to recognize what building up assets can mean for a club. So instead on focusing if the team would be any closer if they had a handful of extra 1sts and 2nds or the difference between Liljegren and Heiskanen, the difference is between being asset-rich and being asset-poor as they sort of are now.

I've made the point before but if a genuine bonafide #1 defenseman decided he wanted to be traded tomorrow, I don't think the Leafs have the asset to be in on that chase if they had to be the highest bidder(presuming they didn't want to subtract from their current roster). If they had a bunch of surplus high ceiling 1sts and 2nds to go along with a recent #3 pick though...?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on June 21, 2018, 06:37:02 AM
So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?   

And even then, I think it's important to recognize what building up assets can mean for a club. So instead on focusing if the team would be any closer if they had a handful of extra 1sts and 2nds or the difference between Liljegren and Heiskanen, the difference is between being asset-rich and being asset-poor as they sort of are now.

I've made the point before but if a genuine bonafide #1 defenseman decided he wanted to be traded tomorrow, I don't think the Leafs have the asset to be in on that chase if they had to be the highest bidder(presuming they didn't want to subtract from their current roster). If they had a bunch of surplus high ceiling 1sts and 2nds to go along with a recent #3 pick though...?

I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 21, 2018, 07:44:06 AM
I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Without wanting to get too caught up in what constitutes a genuine #1 defenseman or "high value" and understanding that there haven't been too many trades that we can look at as comparables I will say that I think some pretty high value defensemen have been moved for what amounts to mainly future assetss.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on June 21, 2018, 09:23:30 AM
I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Without wanting to get too caught up in what constitutes a genuine #1 defenseman or "high value" and understanding that there haven't been too many trades that we can look at as comparables I will say that I think some pretty high value defensemen have been moved for what amounts to mainly future assetss.

I just don't think #1's get moved too often. I mean a number one on any team could be moved if they're say, Dion Phaneuf, but in reality he's not a #1.

I just don't know that prospects or draft picks get it done. I've been wrong before. Ask my wife.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 21, 2018, 09:41:05 AM
I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Without wanting to get too caught up in what constitutes a genuine #1 defenseman or "high value" and understanding that there haven't been too many trades that we can look at as comparables I will say that I think some pretty high value defensemen have been moved for what amounts to mainly future assetss.

Most of the trades you are referencing might be trade deadline deals for guys with little term left though.  Not often do really high-end defensemen get traded for futures in the off-season.  The Dougie Hamilton trade is probably the only recent example you could pull out.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 21, 2018, 07:15:30 PM
Most of the trades you are referencing might be trade deadline deals for guys with little term left though.  Not often do really high-end defensemen get traded for futures in the off-season.  The Dougie Hamilton trade is probably the only recent example you could pull out.

High-end defensemen don't get traded much full-stop. So I'm not saying it's necessarily an inevitable but even if we downgrade the requirements I think the point still stands. If a high value defenseman becomes available and a team is looking for futures, it's better to be asset-rich.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 22, 2018, 08:58:09 AM
Michael Russo of the Athletic is saying that before Galchenyuk was dealt to Arizona the Coyotes and Wild were discussing a Domi+Dvorak for Niederreiter+Zucker+Ennis deal. And holy-heck that would have been an awful deal for Minnesota.

If Tavares doesn't work out and we've got the cap space to take on that Ennis contract the Wild should be the first team we're calling.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2018, 11:10:12 AM

So with all the talk re: Tavares...what's everyone's plan B? Given that the odds are still pretty good he doesn't come here, are their UFA's out there to look seriously at besides him? If he doesn't sign do Bozak or JVR become guys you look to bring back? Are there trades you consider you wouldn't elsewise?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2018, 11:12:23 AM
So with all the talk re: Tavares...what's everyone's plan B? Given that the odds are still pretty good he doesn't come here, are their UFA's out there to look seriously at besides him? If he doesn't sign do Bozak or JVR become guys you look to bring back? Are there trades you consider you wouldn't elsewise?

My personal plan-B would be to move Nylander to the 3C spot and look into what it would cost to bring in a guy like Wayne Simmonds or Nino Niederreiter, both of whom are rumoured to be available.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2018, 11:16:50 AM
My personal plan-B would be to move Nylander to the 3C spot and look into what it would cost to bring in a guy like Wayne Simmonds or Nino Niederreiter, both of whom are rumoured to be available.

I would very much enjoy a line highlighted by Simmonds and Kadri.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 25, 2018, 11:21:39 AM
What about Stastny?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2018, 11:23:55 AM
What about Stastny?

Nah, hard pass. He's a good player and all but he just wouldn't be worth the $6-7mil AAV he'll likely command. A team more desperate for C's will get him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2018, 11:25:11 AM
What about Stastny?

Maybe it's just me but he seems like the kind of guy who would only go to a preferred market. Or, if he did go elsewhere, it would be because of a bidding war. Either way, he doesn't move the needle enough to give him a market value offer in my opinion.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2018, 11:26:06 AM
I brought him up last season too but there's talk that Tyler Myers might be available again (because the Jets need room to potentially re-sign Stastny). That'd be another plan-B type option if we aren't using cap space on Tavares. He has 1-year left at $5.5mil.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 25, 2018, 11:30:36 AM
So with all the talk re: Tavares...what's everyone's plan B? Given that the odds are still pretty good he doesn't come here, are their UFA's out there to look seriously at besides him? If he doesn't sign do Bozak or JVR become guys you look to bring back? Are there trades you consider you wouldn't elsewise?

My personal plan-B would be to move Nylander to the 3C spot and look into what it would cost to bring in a guy like Wayne Simmonds or Nino Niederreiter, both of whom are rumoured to be available.

I'm fully on board with this.  Although, I'd still want some more depth at C.  As of right now, we're at Matthews-Kadri-Nylander-Lindholm.  It be nice to have someone (not Bozak, not Stastny) who can play wing and slide into the middle if an injury occurs- someone better than Marleau at playing the middle at that.  Riley Nash would be nice, but that still might be too big of a contract to hand out.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2018, 11:50:02 AM
I'm fully on board with this.  Although, I'd still want some more depth at C.  As of right now, we're at Matthews-Kadri-Nylander-Lindholm.  It be nice to have someone (not Bozak, not Stastny) who can play wing and slide into the middle if an injury occurs- someone better than Marleau at playing the middle at that.  Riley Nash would be nice, but that still might be too big of a contract to hand out.

A guy like Mark Letestu might be a reasonable/cheap option at 4C.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on June 25, 2018, 01:07:36 PM
What about Stastny?

Nah, hard pass. He's a good player and all but he just wouldn't be worth the $6-7mil AAV he'll likely command. A team more desperate for C's will get him.

Not that it's the be-all-end-all, but that one guys model had him around 5.5M, if I remember correctly.  I'd take Stastny at 5.5 depending on term.  Heck, I'd take that even IF we got Tavares, then I'd trade Kadri in a package for a top4 dman.

Edit:
Stastny 3yrs @ 5.41M <-- yes please - I'd turn around and trade Kadri for a Dman
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 25, 2018, 01:19:21 PM
Anyone else think that there might be a lack of sandpaper in the lineup, now that Komarov is likely out of the picture?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 25, 2018, 01:25:47 PM
I'm fully on board with this.  Although, I'd still want some more depth at C.  As of right now, we're at Matthews-Kadri-Nylander-Lindholm.  It be nice to have someone (not Bozak, not Stastny) who can play wing and slide into the middle if an injury occurs- someone better than Marleau at playing the middle at that.  Riley Nash would be nice, but that still might be too big of a contract to hand out.

A guy like Mark Letestu might be a reasonable/cheap option at 4C.

Yeah, or Derek Ryan.  If Kadri gets injured though, then either Lindholm or Letestu/Ryan would have pick up the minutes of 3C.  Thats why I like Riley Nash.  He's probably better suited to a 3rd line role, whether its wing or center:

Johnsson - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Hyman - Nylander - Nash
Moore (Trevor) - Lindholm - Brown

If any of your Top 3 C's get injured, Nash can slide over to the middle.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 25, 2018, 01:28:59 PM
Anyone else think that there might be a lack of sandpaper in the lineup, now that Komarov is likely out of the picture?

Have you not seen Marner's rabbit punch on the fringes of scrums (scra?)?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on June 25, 2018, 01:31:22 PM
Anyone else think that there might be a lack of sandpaper in the lineup, now that Komarov is likely out of the picture?

I think the need for "sandpaper" is often overstated. While it would be great to bring in someone who can contribute some of that style, it shouldn't be a focus or that a player's prime contribution.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2018, 01:31:51 PM
I know I'm personally already fretting about who the Leafs have who'll get suspended in next year's playoffs.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 25, 2018, 01:33:12 PM
Anyone else think that there might be a lack of sandpaper in the lineup, now that Komarov is likely out of the picture?

Have you not seen Marner's rabbit punch on the fringes of scrums (scra?)?

Sure, Kadri and Marner then.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on June 25, 2018, 01:39:19 PM
Sure, Kadri and Marner then.

Johnsson and Kapanen both have the kind of speed and tenacity that lends to being effective pest type players who forecheck well. Hyman brings some sandpaper, too, as does Brown. It's there. It's just that there's no one currently on the roster who provides it as their primary skill - and that's a good thing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 25, 2018, 01:41:42 PM
Anyone else think that there might be a lack of sandpaper in the lineup, now that Komarov is likely out of the picture?

I think the need for "sandpaper" is often overstated. While it would be great to bring in someone who can contribute some of that style, it shouldn't be a focus or that a player's prime contribution.

I don't think I'm overstating it, and Dubas had some guys that had a more physical style with the Marlies.

I think it's definitely an element that is missing from the lineup today...I'm not advocating going full Don Cherry here, I'm just discussing if it may be something they should look to add.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2018, 01:51:06 PM
I really think the sandpaper that Komarov provided the team last season was overstated. Not once did I ever remember thinking "man, his physical play tonight really made a difference". I think it was more evident in his first season with the team.

I do think the team could use a bigger forward though, hence my Niederreiter/Simmonds posts.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: L K on June 25, 2018, 01:56:24 PM
Yeah, I think they probably are missing some grit.  But I would really prefer that grit be in the role of a power forward who can contribute on both sides of the ice rather than having a token guy on the 4th line who throw a high number of soft hits while contributing minimally in other aspects.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 25, 2018, 02:00:03 PM

It doesn't happen for a million reasons but does anyone else think Pacioretty would actually sort of be a fun option here?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 25, 2018, 02:41:54 PM

It doesn't happen for a million reasons but does anyone else think Pacioretty would actually sort of be a fun option here?

He's only got one year left on his deal, so you could test drive him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2018, 02:54:32 PM
If there's a GM dumb enough to do something like Zaitsev for Pacioretty, it's Bergevin.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2018, 03:22:31 PM

Possible Matt Martin trading partner?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on June 25, 2018, 03:42:28 PM

So with all the talk re: Tavares...what's everyone's plan B? Given that the odds are still pretty good he doesn't come here, are their UFA's out there to look seriously at besides him? If he doesn't sign do Bozak or JVR become guys you look to bring back? Are there trades you consider you wouldn't elsewise?

I think they have to consider both of them. I think even the loss of Bozak is somewhat being ignored.

JvR's going to be expensive though, which wouldn't be a problem if the team didn't have Marleau for another two years.

If Johnsson can continue his development in a scoring role, I wouldn't mind seeing Rick Nash as a third line LW that could move up the line-up, though I don't know if he's come to terms with the fact he's a 3rd liner and will take the appropriate pay.

Thomas Vanek is always an option......
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: caveman on June 25, 2018, 05:31:58 PM
I'm fully on board with this.  Although, I'd still want some more depth at C.  As of right now, we're at Matthews-Kadri-Nylander-Lindholm.  It be nice to have someone (not Bozak, not Stastny) who can play wing and slide into the middle if an injury occurs- someone better than Marleau at playing the middle at that.  Riley Nash would be nice, but that still might be too big of a contract to hand out.

A guy like Mark Letestu might be a reasonable/cheap option at 4C.

Jay Beagle might fit in as a 4C...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on June 25, 2018, 07:13:17 PM
If there's a GM dumb enough to do something like Zaitsev for Pacioretty, it's Bergevin.
Funny but it could happen, even though I think Pacioretty is a great player, I really want to see as many young Marlies on the Leafs as possible. 

Just an aside on another thread, Tavares is right now talking to Dubas, Bab's and Shanny, if these guys can't sell snow to Eskimo's, then who can?  It may not just be show me the money, he wants to win and if he wins in Toronto then his name is engraved in gold forever and he gets a permanent place on legends row.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 25, 2018, 09:39:46 PM
So with all the talk re: Tavares...what's everyone's plan B? Given that the odds are still pretty good he doesn't come here, are their UFA's out there to look seriously at besides him? If he doesn't sign do Bozak or JVR become guys you look to bring back? Are there trades you consider you wouldn't elsewise?

My personal plan-B would be to move Nylander to the 3C spot and look into what it would cost to bring in a guy like Wayne Simmonds or Nino Niederreiter, both of whom are rumoured to be available.

Something like this, I think. Try to use of the cap space to take a few crappy contracts (Ennis, whatever's bad in WPG) in exchange for useful players (Niderreiter) or assets that might be packaged for a defenseman at some point.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 26, 2018, 08:55:02 AM

Nick Shore and either Anthony Duclair or Tobias Rieder would be pretty decent pick-ups to revamp our 4th line.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 26, 2018, 09:10:45 AM

So with all the talk re: Tavares...what's everyone's plan B? Given that the odds are still pretty good he doesn't come here, are their UFA's out there to look seriously at besides him? If he doesn't sign do Bozak or JVR become guys you look to bring back? Are there trades you consider you wouldn't elsewise?

I would like to see Riley Nash and Calvin de Haan.  I think that de Haan is the type of dman that can make the Leafs better.  If he isn't available, I would see what it would take to get Tanev. 

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on June 26, 2018, 10:29:25 AM
Nick Shore and either Anthony Duclair or Tobias Rieder would be pretty decent pick-ups to revamp our 4th line.

Pouliot could also be a decent depth pick up for the blue line.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 26, 2018, 10:34:09 AM
Pouliot could also be a decent depth pick up for the blue line.

If he was a righty, maybe. But with Rielly-Gardiner-Dermott already here and Borgman, Rosen, and Marincin as depth there's probably no room for another LD.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 26, 2018, 10:37:28 AM
Pouliot could also be a decent depth pick up for the blue line.

If he was a righty, maybe. But with Rielly-Gardiner-Dermott already here and Borgman, Rosen, and Marincin as depth there's probably no room for another LD.

Pouliot might be better than all of our depth guys on the left side though.  Dubas has been inquiring with Gardiner's agent about an extension.  If they seem far apart, I highly doubt Gardiner stays with the Leafs this season, which opens up a spot on the left side. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on June 27, 2018, 02:41:30 PM
As for plan B, what about Stastny?  I imagine he will be very tempted to stick with Winnepeg as he had a fun run with them and was performing well there.

I doubt that offering Tavares a 1-year max $15.9 mill contract will have much effect because one would have to compare that with the risk-reward vs the reported $88 mill contract offer from the Islanders.  I wonder, however, if something like that would be more tempting for Stastny.  I often hear (on blogs and the like ... all purely speculation) of Stastny looking in the $6/year for 3 years territory.  Offering the guy a 2.5x his yearly rate; roughly 80% of what he might make over 3 years might be tempting.  And the leafs are one of the only teams that could do it.  It would be (sort of) like a Marleau++ contract.

Of course, there many negative consequences for such a gambit in the longer term.  For instance, Nylander, Matthews and Marner might say "hey -- if you are giving that 2nd rate newcomer that much money then surely you can give me X" and it might piss them off.  It might piss of Kadri and make him feel exploited on his paltry 4.5/year deal.

Just a thought.

I am hoping for Tavares of course.  But it seems so unlikely ...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on June 27, 2018, 03:00:17 PM
All due respects to the older, crappier Paul Statsny, but I wouldn't want the Leafs to commit any sort of term to him.  If you can get Statsny for 2 years I say sure, but that'll never happen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 27, 2018, 03:13:39 PM
I thought that this was a good explanation for why we shouldn't be in on Stastny even though we're in on Tavares:

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Tampa's another team like this. They might be in on Tavares but I can pretty much guarantee you they have absolutely no interest in Stastny.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on June 27, 2018, 03:42:53 PM
All due respects to the older, crappier Paul Statsny, but I wouldn't want the Leafs to commit any sort of term to him.  If you can get Statsny for 2 years I say sure, but that'll never happen.

... what about the idea of the max offer for 1 year?  That offer is likely more than what Statsny would get if he were to sign a 2-year contract and I can imagine it having some appeal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on June 27, 2018, 03:45:40 PM
I thought that this was a good explanation for why we shouldn't be in on Stastny even though we're in on Tavares:

Invalid Tweet IDInvalid Tweet ID
Tampa's another team like this. They might be in on Tavares but I can pretty much guarantee you they have absolutely no interest in Stastny.

To me, these sound like arguments about why Toronto *would* be interested.  At center, after Matthews and Kadri, Toronto really only has guys they'd prefer to play on the wing (Marleau, Nylander) and AHLers (but not even that many of them!).

The reason that Toronto would be interested is that they are in desperate need of centers and they have the luxury of near-infinite cap room this year (and this year only).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on June 27, 2018, 03:55:27 PM
The reason that Toronto would be interested is that they are in desperate need of centers and they have the luxury of near-infinite cap room this year (and this year only).

They'd still be smarter spending their money on cheaper Cs on short contracts. Stastny is going to require an expensive long-term deal, and he's not likely to contribute enough to be worth the future cap issues that could cause.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 27, 2018, 04:07:08 PM
The reason that Toronto would be interested is that they are in desperate need of centers and they have the luxury of near-infinite cap room this year (and this year only).

They'd still be smarter spending their money on cheaper Cs on short contracts. Stastny is going to require an expensive long-term deal, and he's not likely to contribute enough to be worth the future cap issues that could cause.

Agreed.  I'd be targetting Riley Nash and Derek Ryan.  Matt Cane's salary projection for them both sits at 2-3 yrs, 2.5M AAV (although I feel like Nash will get more).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on June 27, 2018, 04:12:36 PM
Agreed.  I'd be targetting Riley Nash and Derek Ryan.  Matt Cane's salary projection for them both sits at 2-3 yrs, 2.5M AAV (although I feel like Nash will get more).

Yeah. I'd be targeting them, too - even if the team does add Tavares, adding one of them would be helpful.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 27, 2018, 04:15:46 PM
Hey The Athletic people, my feed showed me that there was an article today (or yesterday) about how Kyle Dubas is going to have to be super busy if they don't land Tavares...what were they suggesting he does?
Title: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 27, 2018, 04:45:38 PM
Hey The Athletic people, my feed showed me that there was an article today (or yesterday) about how Kyle Dubas is going to have to be super busy if they don't land Tavares...what were they suggesting he does?

In net, Sparks is likely the backup so donít be surprised to see one or both of Mac or Pickard traded. (rumblings around the league have Pickard being available)

On D they could look to a team like Minnesota or Winnipeg and eat a bad contract to get a capable RD from them or move a few of the depth guys to create a hole for Holl.

At forward they could look for a depth center like Nash or Ryan and if they miss out on Tavares expect that Nylander could get a long look at 3C. If Nylander is the 3C they might look for another option on the wing.

Depending on how things fall they speculated that there could be as many as 8 roster changes by the start of next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 27, 2018, 05:13:35 PM
Thanks WIGWAL.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 29, 2018, 09:21:16 AM

Possible Matt Martin trading partner?

Sounds like the Rangers, and other teams, are going hard after Ryan Reaves. Hopefully Dubas can offer up Martin to whoever loses that "sweepstakes".
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on June 29, 2018, 09:27:53 AM
Komarov has been linked to the Rangers, he's a character for sure.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 29, 2018, 08:23:01 PM

Plan B: Matt Martin
Plan C: Matt Martin
Plan D: Martin, Matt
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 30, 2018, 11:29:08 AM
We were talking the other day about getting a little more jam in the lineup...anyone have interest in Patrick Maroon?

According to tsn.ca, he's got about 6 suitors or something, which makes it much less interesting given the price will likely be driven up beyond what he's worth on my cap.

He's coming off a $2m cap hit, he'll probably get, what, $4?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 30, 2018, 11:32:34 AM
We were talking the other day about getting a little more jam in the lineup...anyone have interest in Patrick Maroon?

According to tsn.ca, he's got about 6 suitors or something, which makes it much less interesting given the price will likely be driven up beyond what he's worth on my cap.

He's coming off a $2m cap hit, he'll probably get, what, $4?

Matt Cane's prediction model has him getting $5mil+.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 30, 2018, 11:34:22 AM

I think he'd be worth a look if paid sensibly while acknowledging that there's a a snowball's chance in Downtown Toronto that he gets paid sensibly.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 30, 2018, 11:34:47 AM
Not a massive surprise here, but Mirtle's reporting that the Leafs will turn their attention to Derek Ryan if Tavares passes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on June 30, 2018, 11:37:55 AM
Not a massive surprise here, but Mirtle's reporting that the Leafs will turn their attention to Derek Ryan if Tavares passes.

If that's based on anything even semi-recent it's probably not a great sign.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 30, 2018, 11:42:13 AM
Not a massive surprise here, but Mirtle's reporting that the Leafs will turn their attention to Derek Ryan if Tavares passes.

Is he any better than Bozak?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 30, 2018, 12:20:27 PM
Not a massive surprise here, but Mirtle's reporting that the Leafs will turn their attention to Derek Ryan if Tavares passes.

Is he any better than Bozak?

They're probably pretty close. Ryan's a more well-rounded player while Bozak has a higher offensive ceiling (although they were fairly close in scoring last season). Ryan will also come cheaper than Bozak. Matt Cane's model has him at $2.4mil, but there's multiple teams after him so I could see him getting $3mil. As long as it doesn't come with big term it's a fine contract for a more prototypical 3C.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 30, 2018, 12:36:24 PM
Not a massive surprise here, but Mirtle's reporting that the Leafs will turn their attention to Derek Ryan if Tavares passes.

Is he any better than Bozak?

They're probably pretty close. Ryan's a more well-rounded player while Bozak has a higher offensive ceiling (although they were fairly close in scoring last season). Ryan will also come cheaper than Bozak. Matt Cane's model has him at $2.4mil, but there's multiple teams after him so I could see him getting $3mil. As long as it doesn't come with big term it's a fine contract for a more prototypical 3C.

I guess we'll see, but at 170lbs, and only 153 NHL games at 31 years old, I'm wondering if last year was an outlier.

I'll be really disappointed if this is what we're counting on behind Matthews and Kadri.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on June 30, 2018, 12:47:43 PM
I just want to say I like Derek Ryan, but I see him more as a 4C. Nylander moves to center if the Leafs miss out on Tavares.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 01, 2018, 09:59:32 AM

Yeaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on July 01, 2018, 10:05:03 AM
 Calgary might take a look at Martin.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 01, 2018, 02:16:37 PM

So now that you've got Tavares in the fold do you maybe get real aggressive about going out and getting a defenseman?

I'm not sure who's available but I think you could still keep the big 3, excuse me, big 4 and put together some pretty attractive packages by skimming maybe a little bit of depth/offense off the top.

Say...a 1st, Brown, Grundstrom and Zaitsev? Or even be open to the moving of Liljegren?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on July 01, 2018, 02:19:29 PM

So now that you've got Tavares in the fold do you maybe get real aggressive about going out and getting a defenseman?

I'm not sure who's available but I think you could still keep the big 3, excuse me, big 4 and put together some pretty attractive packages by skimming maybe a little bit of depth/offense off the top.

Say...a 1st, Brown, Grundstrom and Zaitsev? Or even be open to the moving of Liljegren?

I think the leafs have really now established declaring their window of contention as of this season with Tavares and the expiring entry level deals. So it would make sense to see a trade at this point for the back end, particularly due to the lack of FA options.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 01, 2018, 02:21:34 PM

So now that you've got Tavares in the fold do you maybe get real aggressive about going out and getting a defenseman?

I'm not sure who's available but I think you could still keep the big 3, excuse me, big 4 and put together some pretty attractive packages by skimming maybe a little bit of depth/offense off the top.

Say...a 1st, Brown, Grundstrom and Zaitsev? Or even be open to the moving of Liljegren?

Yeah I think we have to be prepared to trade guys we wouldn't have wanted to a day ago. That includes all the guys you mentioned plus even a Kapanen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 01, 2018, 02:22:27 PM
How about Karlsson?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 01, 2018, 02:22:57 PM
How about Karlsson?

I think that book has closed.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 01, 2018, 02:24:02 PM
How about Karlsson?

Yeah, I think Melnyk would probably be even more receptive to that now. He's always been clear about wanting to help the Leafs win a cup.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on July 01, 2018, 02:24:43 PM
Might be an unpopular opinion, but I'd also still like to see a bit of size added to the wing.

With JVR/Komorov/Polak and Martin (assumed) no longer in the lineup, I wouldn't mind a bigger body out there along the boards, as long as he can keep up. Another hyman type.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 01, 2018, 02:25:39 PM
How about Karlsson?

Yeah, I think Melnyk would probably be even more receptive to that now. He's always been clear about wanting to help the Leafs win a cup.

I honestly think that Melnyk would do it if the deal was good enough...youíd have to take Ryan.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 01, 2018, 02:28:43 PM
I honestly think that Melnyk would do it if the deal was good enough...youíd have to take Ryan.

I think in this context "if the deal was good enough" would almost certainly start with Marner or Nylander and, quite frankly, I'm not sure Nylander would do it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on July 01, 2018, 02:30:49 PM
I honestly think that Melnyk would do it if the deal was good enough...youíd have to take Ryan.

I think in this context "if the deal was good enough" would almost certainly start with Marner or Nylander and, quite frankly, I'm not sure Nylander would do it.

Yeah, If I was Nylander, I wouldn't report to the Sens after the trade either.

 :-*
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 01, 2018, 02:42:54 PM
Might be an unpopular opinion, but I'd also still like to see a bit of size added to the wing.

With JVR/Komorov/Polak and Martin (assumed) no longer in the lineup, I wouldn't mind a bigger body out there along the boards, as long as he can keep up. Another hyman type.

Maroon on a short term?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 01, 2018, 03:09:04 PM
With our complement of forwards, I think a cadre of mobile puck retrievers with good skating will be more than fine. Upgrade a Marlie or two and dump the slow.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bates on July 01, 2018, 03:17:21 PM
Please no.
Might be an unpopular opinion, but I'd also still like to see a bit of size added to the wing.

With JVR/Komorov/Polak and Martin (assumed) no longer in the lineup, I wouldn't mind a bigger body out there along the boards, as long as he can keep up. Another hyman type.

Maroon on a short term?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 01, 2018, 03:17:58 PM

If youíre still thinking, but what about Boston/Tampa... JT solves it. Now check out my hook while DJ Smith revolves it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 01, 2018, 03:19:20 PM
With our complement of forwards, I think a cadre of mobile puck retrievers with good skating will be more than fine. Upgrade a Marlie or two and dump the slow.

I still think you can make upgrades. Especially if you can maybe find someone who might be easier to fit under the cap long term than Gardiner might be after next year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on July 01, 2018, 03:20:22 PM
With our complement of forwards, I think a cadre of mobile puck retrievers with good skating will be more than fine. Upgrade a Marlie or two and dump the slow.

Fair enough, that's the modern hockey take. That said, the marlies that Dubas built weren't exactly devoid of size and physical play - so I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. I'm certainly not advocating going full clarkson as an overreaction to the boston series, but a well rounded team not a bad thing -as long as speed isn't compromised, no?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on July 01, 2018, 03:22:28 PM
If youíre still thinking, but what about Boston/Tampa... JT solves it. Now check out my hook while DJ Smith revolves it.

winner
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 01, 2018, 03:31:14 PM
With our complement of forwards, I think a cadre of mobile puck retrievers with good skating will be more than fine. Upgrade a Marlie or two and dump the slow.

I still think you can make upgrades. Especially if you can maybe find someone who might be easier to fit under the cap long term than Gardiner might be after next year.

I donít disagree that upgrades should be made whenever they are possible, but I definitely mean we donít need to be desperately shopping for defensemen the way itís been generally characterized these two years. Like there is no need to part with Nylander. Brown or Kapanen, sure. Hyman even. In other words, no thanks to breaking the bank for Tanev because Iím pretty happy with Holl/Carrick too.

I think you hold onto your centre and RHD prospects a little closer due to value, but freely move one if it brings in a needle mover.

Fair enough, that's the modern hockey take. That said, the marlies that Dubas built weren't exactly devoid of size and physical play - so I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. I'm certainly not advocating going full clarkson as an overreaction to the boston series, but a well rounded team not a bad thing -as long as speed isn't compromised, no?

Size is traditionally conflated with defensive (and general hockey) effectiveness. Iím not saying it doesnít help: longer and taller players can be stronger in full extension so it is an obvious advantage.

Speed and shifty skating and smart passing breaks down a strength advantage pretty quickly as strength is almost meaningless away from the puck. Yeah itíd be great to get some balance in the play styles and body types back there, but Polak was specifically there for strength and hard mashing and basically it resulted in the other team having the puck all the time.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 01, 2018, 03:33:23 PM
I donít disagree that upgrades should be made whenever they are possible, but I definitely mean we donít need to be desperately shopping for defensemen the way itís been generally characterized these two years. Like there is no need to part with Nylander. Brown or Kapanen, sure. Hyman even. In other words, no thanks to breaking the bank for Tanev because Iím pretty happy with Holl/Carrick too.

I agree re: Nylander but I do think they should really be looking to maximize the next couple of years and their shot at things. Not so much because of a window closing but just because of a sense of fearing the unknown.

So desperate? No. Aggressive? Yes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 01, 2018, 03:37:15 PM
I donít disagree that upgrades should be made whenever they are possible, but I definitely mean we donít need to be desperately shopping for defensemen the way itís been generally characterized these two years. Like there is no need to part with Nylander. Brown or Kapanen, sure. Hyman even. In other words, no thanks to breaking the bank for Tanev because Iím pretty happy with Holl/Carrick too.

I agree re: Nylander but I do think they should really be looking to maximize the next couple of years and their shot at things. Not so much because of a window closing but just because of a sense of fearing the unknown.

So desperate? No. Aggressive? Yes.

Yes thatís a good way to put it. I dont think we need a top flight minute eating 1RD, but if one is available for a reasonable price, it should happen. Our next 7 first rounders are trade down options anyway.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 01, 2018, 04:46:08 PM

If youíre still thinking, but what about Boston/Tampa... JT solves it. Now check out my hook while DJ Smith revolves it.

That's hilarious.  I wanted to go with a "Good Vibrations" rendition as song by Auston Matthews.

"Johnny T's on my backup.  Defence free, so run the score up"
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on July 01, 2018, 05:21:48 PM

So now that you've got Tavares in the fold do you maybe get real aggressive about going out and getting a defenseman?

I'm not sure who's available but I think you could still keep the big 3, excuse me, big 4 and put together some pretty attractive packages by skimming maybe a little bit of depth/offense off the top.

Say...a 1st, Brown, Grundstrom and Zaitsev? Or even be open to the moving of Liljegren?

Yeah I think we have to be prepared to trade guys we wouldn't have wanted to a day ago. That includes all the guys you mentioned plus even a Kapanen.

I'm there, yep.

Curious to see how Berkshire's Top 23 (http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/definitive-ranking-nhls-top-23-defencemen-three-seasons/) looks when updated to include the 2017-18 season...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 01, 2018, 05:33:03 PM
Dubas better get those Nylander and Marner 8 year deals done. Not sure if they bridge Nylander at this point or not
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 01, 2018, 08:04:16 PM

Well that's interesting.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 02, 2018, 10:15:51 AM

Letís gooooo
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2018, 10:33:19 AM

Letís gooooo

I've gone from thinking that the Leafs might need to add something to get rid of his contract... to thinking that somebody would probably just take it for free... to thinking that we could actually get something of somewhat decent value for it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on July 02, 2018, 10:37:20 AM
My head says get him out of town, but I could see the value in him when the leafs are up 7-2 in the third and the other team is getting goony and needs a target.

Yes, I know it's not a good enough reason, but I'm still stuck in the 80's.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 02, 2018, 12:42:50 PM

Letís gooooo

I've gone from thinking that the Leafs might need to add something to get rid of his contract... to thinking that somebody would probably just take it for free... to thinking that we could actually get something of somewhat decent value for it.
I'll be amazed if Dubas can make a decent trade for Matt Martin. And by decent I mean not having to take any crap back.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on July 02, 2018, 01:29:01 PM

Letís gooooo

I've gone from thinking that the Leafs might need to add something to get rid of his contract... to thinking that somebody would probably just take it for free... to thinking that we could actually get something of somewhat decent value for it.
I'll be amazed if Dubas can make a decent trade for Matt Martin. And by decent I mean not having to take any crap back.

I wouldn't. If Ryan Reaves can get almost $3M a season on a two year term, I can definitely see why someone might see more value in picking up Martin's contract.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 02, 2018, 01:48:27 PM

Letís gooooo

Hold out for a first rounder. 🍷🙃
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 02, 2018, 02:12:59 PM

If youíre still thinking, but what about Boston/Tampa... JT solves it. Now check out my hook while DJ Smith revolves it.

That's hilarious.  I wanted to go with a "Good Vibrations" rendition as song by Auston Matthews.

"Johnny T's on my backup.  Defence free, so run the score up"

Fun fact: Iím having trouble finding more than 8 other teams with a center who scored more goals than our 3rd liner last year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 03, 2018, 12:10:30 AM
I tried looking up which defensemen had more even strength assists than Gardiner (33).  I could have missed someone but the list is short:

Carlson (40)
Karlsson (38)
Klingberg (37)

Tied (33): Burns, Doughty

Is my math bad? Am I missing someone?  If Iím not, that is a pretty impressive list of names.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on July 03, 2018, 08:32:32 AM
NHL.com has the following:

Klingberg (37)
Karlsson (37)

Gardiner (33)
Doughty (33)

Burns (32)

NHL.com Even Strength Assists for Defensemen (http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evAssists)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 08:41:21 AM
Only two defencemen had more 5-on-5 assists than Gardiner: Karlsson and Klingberg (31). Josh Mason (28) was tied with Jake for 3rd.

Total 5-on-5 points Gardiner was 4th among defencemen behind those 3 guys. Klingberg had 36, Karlsson 35, Mason 34, and Gardiner 32.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 08:50:45 AM
Also my annual reminder that "even-strength" on NHL.com includes 5-on-5, 4-on-4, 3-on-3, and even inexplicably 6-on-5 or 5-on-6.

True hockey stats snobs only look at 5-on-5 since the majority of the game is played in that state.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 11:15:18 AM

omg
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 03, 2018, 11:17:34 AM

omg

The Matt Martin Bidding War.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 03, 2018, 11:19:15 AM

omg

The Matt Martin Bidding War.
Man this is unbelievable. I thought the NHL was evolving?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 03, 2018, 11:25:55 AM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/rl0FOxdz7CcxO/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on July 03, 2018, 11:58:54 AM
Wait, so we DON'T have to send out a 2nd round pick to get rid of Martin?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 03, 2018, 12:01:10 PM
Wait, so we DON'T have to send out a 2nd round pick to get rid of Martin?

How's about instead we take back a 2nd round pick?  Deal?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on July 03, 2018, 12:06:26 PM
<sad face> that was the joke </sad face>
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 12:11:39 PM

"Calvin, there's a good chance every single one of your outlet passes will be received by one of Matthews, Nylander, Tavares, or Marner. Sign here please."
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 03, 2018, 12:15:03 PM

I like how every free agency period, like, 99% of the available guys sign within 45 minutes but there's always the one guy who's like "Nah, I think my big offers are really going to come in mid-July".
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 03, 2018, 12:21:58 PM

I like how every free agency period, like, 99% of the available guys sign within 45 minutes but there's always the one guy who's like "Nah, I think my big offers are really going to come in mid-July".

Maybe Tavares bought all the binders on the Island?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 03, 2018, 12:26:00 PM
Is de Haan good?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 03, 2018, 12:32:47 PM
Is de Haan good?

He's de OK.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 03, 2018, 12:41:49 PM

I've heard he's one of those guys who really wants to stay out west but if de Haan doesn't de work out what do people think about maybe looking into Dan Hamhuis on a short term thing? Old, yeah, but still a decent contributor.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 03, 2018, 12:56:24 PM
Is de Haan good?

He'd be a solid upgrade to the Leafs #4, and a significant upgrade to the 3rd pairing. If the team is looking for him to fill in on the top pair, he wouldn't offer much more than what they already have.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 12:59:23 PM
Is de Haan good?

Analytics folks like him. He's not a top pairing defenceman or anything but he's a good skating puck mover who should be a good #4 type guy. I think he's sorta Dermott-y if you want a Leafs comparable.

As long as he isn't grossly overpaid he's pretty much the exact type of player we need to be filling our defence corps with. Projection models have him at about $2.5mil-3.5mil on a deal with 3+ years.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 01:00:21 PM
He'd be a solid upgrade to the Leafs #4, and a significant upgrade to the 3rd pairing. If the team is looking for him to fill in on the top pair, he wouldn't offer much more than what they already have.

I mean if he's replacing Hainsey on the top pair that'd be a pretty significant upgrade.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 03, 2018, 01:00:44 PM
I mean if he's replacing Hainsey on the top pair that'd be a pretty significant upgrade.

Except that he's a LHD, so, that's not happening. Realistically, with Babcock's preferences, we're looking at him for the 3rd pairing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 01:02:04 PM
Except that he's a LHD, so, that's not happening.

The fact that the Leafs are chasing him means one of two things:

1) They're planning on trading Gardiner.

2) They're planning on moving a lefty (probably Rielly) over to the right side. They're not going to scratch Dermott.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 03, 2018, 01:12:47 PM
I agree with Carlton here, the fact that they're chasing a LHD means they want to make a move with one of the current ones.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 01:16:13 PM
I agree with Carlton here, the fact that they're chasing a LHD means they want to make a move with one of the current ones.

I do think that it's more likely that it means option 2, but option 1 wouldn't completely surprise me. We know Dubas has spoken to Gardiner's agent already about a new deal. If he doesn't get the sense that Gardiner wants to return or if the price will be too high, I think Dubas shops him this summer. And considering the year that he's coming off of (like I said earlier today, he was one of the highest scoring defencemen at 5-on-5), his value is likely the highest it will ever be.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 03, 2018, 01:16:58 PM
Except that he's a LHD, so, that's not happening.

The fact that the Leafs are chasing him means one of two things:

1) They're planning on trading Gardiner.

2) They're planning on moving a lefty (probably Rielly) over to the right side. They're not going to scratch Dermott.

I was wondering if it was #1... but where and for whom? To Minnesota? Winnipeg? Carolina? For an RD?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on July 03, 2018, 01:17:41 PM
Except that he's a LHD, so, that's not happening.

The fact that the Leafs are chasing him means one of two things:

1) They're planning on trading Gardiner.

2) They're planning on moving a lefty (probably Rielly) over to the right side. They're not going to scratch Dermott.

I wonder if Dubas and the likely increasing importance of the analytics department will make #2 more or less likely.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 03, 2018, 01:23:34 PM
I agree with Carlton here, the fact that they're chasing a LHD means they want to make a move with one of the current ones.

I do think that it's more likely that it means option 2, but option 1 wouldn't completely surprise me. We know Dubas has spoken to Gardiner's agent already about a new deal. If he doesn't get the sense that Gardiner wants to return or if the price will be too high, I think Dubas shops him this summer. And considering the year that he's coming off of (like I said earlier today, he was one of the highest scoring defencemen at 5-on-5), his value is likely the highest it will ever be.

I didn't mean to put words in your mouth there, but didn't they already fool around with Rielly on the right-side last year or something?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 01:24:34 PM
I was wondering if it was #1... but where and for whom? To Minnesota? Winnipeg? Carolina? For an RD?

I've speculated about a trade with New Jersey for Damon Severson before. Andy Greene isn't getting any younger and they just lost John Moore to Boston too, so their left side is pretty weak right now. Severson is a bit of a downgrade for us but he's a young righty who is signed to a very reasonable contract.

That'd give us something like:

Rielly-Severson
de Haan-Zaitsev
Dermott-Hainsey
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 01:26:57 PM
I didn't mean to put words in your mouth there, but didn't they already fool around with Rielly on the right-side last year or something?

Last season? No. He pretty much exclusively played with Hainsey who was on the right side. He saw very rare spot duty with Dermott and Gardiner from time to time when the Leafs needed a goal but the minutes there were very slim.

Back in the Matt Hunwick days though Rielly did play the right side. His numbers took a bit of a hit from what he was used to but it's difficult to say if that's because he played on a different side or because he played with Matt Hunwick.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on July 03, 2018, 01:28:50 PM
I was wondering if it was #1... but where and for whom? To Minnesota? Winnipeg? Carolina? For an RD?

What teams think they're close enough -- or are sufficiently desperate to make the playoffs -- that they'd be in on a pending UFA? I'd suspect the Leafs want to get better, and swapping Gardiner for de Haan plus futures doesn't really do that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 03, 2018, 01:29:56 PM
I didn't mean to put words in your mouth there, but didn't they already fool around with Rielly on the right-side last year or something?

Last season? No. He pretty much exclusively played with Hainsey who was on the right side. He saw very rare spot duty with Dermott and Gardiner from time to time when the Leafs needed a goal but the minutes there were very slim.

Back in the Matt Hunwick days though Rielly did play the right side. His numbers took a bit of a hit from what he was used to but it's difficult to say if that's because he played on a different side or because he played with Matt Hunwick.

It must have been the Hunwick days that I was thinking of, but yeah, it wasn't great.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on July 03, 2018, 01:35:33 PM
Back in the Matt Hunwick days though Rielly did play the right side. His numbers took a bit of a hit from what he was used to but it's difficult to say if that's because he played on a different side or because he played with Matt Hunwick.

When Rielly and Gardiner have played together, they did well -- and one of them was on the right side.

Think link (http://corsica.hockey/line-stats/?season=20152016,20142015,20132014,20172018&player=JAKE.GARDINER&team=Any&game_state=5v5&options=Aggregate&session=Regular&venue=Any&report=Summary&min_toi=50&tab=) to Corsica's stats of Gardiner's partners just might work.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 03, 2018, 01:35:41 PM
Dermott saw significant time on the right side for the Marlies, yes? (Looking at you, herman - you seem to have the Marlies info)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 01:40:22 PM
Dermott saw significant time on the right side for the Marlies, yes? (Looking at you, herman - you seem to have the Marlies info)

Herman or someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this happened very often. This past season especially the Marlies had a pretty deep right side, so he was usually with Liljegren or LoVerde. And scanning some posted line-ups from the season before when they didn't have as much RHD depth it looks like Andrew Campbell and Viktor Loov were the guys who generally moved to their off-side.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 03, 2018, 01:53:15 PM
I was wondering if it was #1... but where and for whom? To Minnesota? Winnipeg? Carolina? For an RD?

What teams think they're close enough -- or are sufficiently desperate to make the playoffs -- that they'd be in on a pending UFA? I'd suspect the Leafs want to get better, and swapping Gardiner for de Haan plus futures doesn't really do that.

Carolina has 4 RHD in Hamilton, Pesce, Faulk, and TVR.  Only Slavin on the Left side.  So a Faulk for Gardiner swap makes sense.

The Wild have Brodin and Suter on the left side, so not sure how Gardiner fits in there.  Unless they have another move in mind it doesn't make much sense to me.  They do have a few RHD though in Spurgeon, Dumba (RFA), Pateryn, and Prosser.

Jets have Trouba, Buff, and Myers on the right side.  They also have lots of RFA's to sign between this year and next.  Maybe Gardiner for one year makes sense for them, since their left side is essentially Morrissey and replacement level guys.  I can't remember if Myers is any good anymore, but he does have one year left on his deal as well.  If they sweeten the deal with prospect that might work but I don't love it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 03, 2018, 01:53:41 PM
Dermott saw significant time on the right side for the Marlies, yes? (Looking at you, herman - you seem to have the Marlies info)

Herman or someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this happened very often. This past season especially the Marlies had a pretty deep right side, so he was usually with Liljegren or LoVerde. And scanning some posted line-ups from the season before when they didn't have as much RHD depth it looks like Andrew Campbell and Viktor Loov were the guys who generally moved to their off-side.

We need a defenceman who is an ambi-turner.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 03, 2018, 01:59:37 PM
Back in the Matt Hunwick days though Rielly did play the right side. His numbers took a bit of a hit from what he was used to but it's difficult to say if that's because he played on a different side or because he played with Matt Hunwick.

When Rielly and Gardiner have played together, they did well -- and one of them was on the right side.

Think link (http://corsica.hockey/line-stats/?season=20152016,20142015,20132014,20172018&player=JAKE.GARDINER&team=Any&game_state=5v5&options=Aggregate&session=Regular&venue=Any&report=Summary&min_toi=50&tab=) to Corsica's stats of Gardiner's partners just might work.

Yeah, if I have Rielly playing his off-side, I'd lean towards him playing with Gardiner instead of Dermott.  Run the defense pairs as such:

Gardiner - Rielly -> Top pair, lots of defensive zone starts

Dermott - Zaitsev ->  Lots of offensive zone starts.  Both are good and aggressive at the offensive blueline and do a good job keeping possession in the offensive zone.

Hainsey + one of Rosen/Borgman/Carrick/Ohzighanov (Hainsey switches sides when paired with a lefty) -> sheltered usage in terms of competition, but not necessarily in terms of zone

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 03, 2018, 02:11:09 PM
Dermott saw significant time on the right side for the Marlies, yes? (Looking at you, herman - you seem to have the Marlies info)

Herman or someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this happened very often. This past season especially the Marlies had a pretty deep right side, so he was usually with Liljegren or LoVerde. And scanning some posted line-ups from the season before when they didn't have as much RHD depth it looks like Andrew Campbell and Viktor Loov were the guys who generally moved to their off-side.

We need a defenceman who is an ambi-turner.

Dermott played right side in the past (as have Marincin, Rosen, and Borgman); but as Carlton mentioned, it was largely spot duty this past year thanks to Holl, LoVerde, and Liljegren. He did it more the previous season, but did have some injury setbacks. I don't have enough of a sample to say for certain how he did there, but he looked alright with Rielly. I do know that sometimes the Marlies lineups are posted without regard for side, and often the listed lines are only used sparingly, as Keefe is not as attached to handedness and they were generally overwhelmingly good already.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on July 03, 2018, 02:15:46 PM
Yeah, if I have Rielly playing his off-side, I'd lean towards him playing with Gardiner instead of Dermott.  Run the defense pairs as such:

Gardiner - Rielly -> Top pair, lots of defensive zone starts

Dermott - Zaitsev ->  Lots of offensive zone starts.  Both are good and aggressive at the offensive blueline and do a good job keeping possession in the offensive zone.

Hainsey + one of Rosen/Borgman/Carrick/Ohzighanov (Hainsey switches sides when paired with a lefty) -> sheltered usage in terms of competition, but not necessarily in terms of zone

If they're in a trading mood, I wonder if a package of a pick, Carrick, plus one of Brown/Johnsson/Kapanen (ideally Brown) could get a good RHD that's out there. Pysyk, Petry, Faulk, Spurgeon... or something like that. Push Zaitsev down to the third pair or trade him before folks realize he's a bottom-pairing defenseman paid like a top-4.

Gardiner - Rielly
Dermott - acquired RHD
Hainsey + one of Rosen/Borgman/Ohzighanov

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: louisstamos on July 03, 2018, 03:06:18 PM
Just for fun, back in late May I was doing a course on Excel on how to make charts, so I used hockey data (as it's so near and dear to me).  I made a chart of all the Leafs D from 2017-18 (min 10 games), along with all the rumoured "available" RHD defensemen.  Just for fun, I just plugged in De Haan here now.  Their career relative Corsi to their team and their on-ice save percentage (as I couldn't find relative oiSV% anywhere).

(https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/36656577_10156469187307152_5138472265612001280_o.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=e4eb8c18ec13ecdcaa5c41f369e89d89&oe=5BD9189F)

I wish I could find relative oiSV%, as it might not be fair to someone like Faulk who's played on teams with subpar goalies the last couple years.  If your goalie saves .900 while you're on the ice, but .880 when you're not, it means you're probably pretty good.  Also, I know his quality of competition was low, and it's a small sample size, but I think Dermott might be a player you guys. :P

Anyways, De Haan's numbers are decent.  Can probably do better, but for a free pickup, not bad.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 03, 2018, 03:58:59 PM
What do we think would be Gardiner's ask?  $7mX8?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 03, 2018, 04:02:10 PM
Just for fun, back in late May I was doing a course on Excel on how to make charts, so I used hockey data (as it's so near and dear to me).  I made a chart of all the Leafs D from 2017-18 (min 10 games), along with all the rumoured "available" RHD defensemen.  Just for fun, I just plugged in De Haan here now.  Their career relative Corsi to their team and their on-ice save percentage (as I couldn't find relative oiSV% anywhere).

(https://scontent-yyz1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/36656577_10156469187307152_5138472265612001280_o.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=e4eb8c18ec13ecdcaa5c41f369e89d89&oe=5BD9189F)

I wish I could find relative oiSV%, as it might not be fair to someone like Faulk who's played on teams with subpar goalies the last couple years.  If your goalie saves .900 while you're on the ice, but .880 when you're not, it means you're probably pretty good.  Also, I know his quality of competition was low, and it's a small sample size, but I think Dermott might be a player you guys. :P

Anyways, De Haan's numbers are decent.  Can probably do better, but for a free pickup, not bad.

Man, Andersen must be super dialed in when Dermott is on the ice.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 03, 2018, 04:06:33 PM
What do we think would be Gardiner's ask?  $7mX8?

I think that might be where his agent starts, but I don't think he'd get more than $6.5M x 7 on the open market.  McDonagh's contract extension probably puts a limit on what Gardiner could get (6.75M x 8 ).

I'd be fine with $6M x 5/6 or something like that (maximum). 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 04:08:31 PM
If Gardiner puts up another 50-point season I can see him hitting a $7mil AAV on the open market.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 03, 2018, 04:11:30 PM
If Gardiner puts up another 50-point season I can see him hitting a $7mil AAV on the open market.

Agreed. Some of the contracts handed out to defencemen over the last few weeks have definitely raised the pay scale. You're not going to get a blueliner with multiple 50+ point seasons for less than $7M in the UFA market.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 03, 2018, 04:12:48 PM

Yeah. There's no doubt that McDonogh took a bit of a haircut to stay on a contender. Gardiner wouldn't have to.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 03, 2018, 04:14:01 PM
If Gardiner puts up another 50-point season I can see him hitting a $7mil AAV on the open market.

Agreed. Some of the contracts handed out to defencemen over the last few weeks have definitely raised the pay scale.

You are both probably right- but for some reason I feel like enough GM's out there still think he's bad defensively and that will temper his contract.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 04:16:05 PM
Also earlier I half-jokingly/half-seriously suggested that the Leafs should experiment with a 5-forward powerplay unit. If they do this and use Rielly on the other unit it could artificially keep Gardiner's point totals down, possibly making him a little easier to re-sign.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 03, 2018, 04:16:49 PM
You are both probably right- but for some reason I feel like enough GM's out there still think he's bad defensively and that will temper his contract.

Sure, but with another 50+ point season, his perceived defensive issues will be what prevent him from getting $8M plus.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 03, 2018, 04:19:09 PM
You are both probably right- but for some reason I feel like enough GM's out there still think he's bad defensively and that will temper his contract.

Sure, but with another 50+ point season, his perceived defensive issues will be what prevent him from getting $8M plus.

True.  So where is your cutoff line for re-signing him?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 04:22:37 PM
Roughly speaking I would aim for $6mil, settle for $6.5mil, and probably consider trade options at $7mil. I also don't think I'd go over 6 years if it wasn't a $6mil AAV.

If I knew that Zaitsev's contract wasn't on the books I'd be a little more comfortable with going to $7mil.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 03, 2018, 04:31:49 PM
Do we think that Dermott can eventually (soon) replace Gardiner's offense or not?

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 03, 2018, 04:38:17 PM
True.  So where is your cutoff line for re-signing him?

I'm probably pretty close to CtB. I might be more comfortable at $7M on a shorter deal, but, like CtB, that's partly dependent on if Zaitsev's contract is still on the books. Its a tough call, because his skills with the puck are not easy to replace, but cap considerations muddy the waters.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 04:45:16 PM
And to clarify, I don't think $7mil for Gardiner would be a bad cap hit or anything, it's more can we fit it in with all of our other current and future cap commitments. That's where ditching Zaitsev becomes critical.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2018, 04:47:14 PM
Do we think that Dermott can eventually (soon) replace Gardiner's offense or not?

I don't think we'll be seeing Dermott hit 50 points any time soon, if at all. Although in fairness it took Gardiner 7 years to get there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 03, 2018, 05:00:37 PM
Do we think that Dermott can eventually (soon) replace Gardiner's offense or not?

I don't think we'll be seeing Dermott hit 50 points any time soon, if at all. Although in fairness it took Gardiner 7 years to get there.

Sure, I guess I was more thinking of 40 point Gardiner, if they gave Dermott 20 minutes a night/some PP duty.

As they start to get into a bit of a cap crunch moving forward, I'm thinking that if Dermott can do Gardiner's job, do they move Gardiner to get help on RD?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 03, 2018, 05:07:28 PM

So, subtract another $3.7M from that immediately, as we really don't want to carry over any bonus money into 2019-2020 when the extensions for Matthews and Marner kick in.  That leaves just shy of $12.5M left to resign Nylander and Johnsson and fill out the rest of the roster with guys like Jooris, Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, Rosen etc.  (1-2 D, 2-3 F) who are on contracts under 1M. 

So, if you fill in 4 guys at approx. 1M, you've got $8.5M left to re-sign Nylander and Johnsson which should be do-able.  Any additions beyond that need to come with some salary subtracted, or we are heading into carrying over bonus money into next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on July 03, 2018, 05:42:23 PM
I mean if he's replacing Hainsey on the top pair that'd be a pretty significant upgrade.

Except that he's a LHD, so, that's not happening. Realistically, with Babcock's preferences, we're looking at him for the 3rd pairing.

Hainsey is a lefty too.  No reason they can't swap out Hainsey for de Hann as an upgrade.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 03, 2018, 09:18:08 PM
I mean if he's replacing Hainsey on the top pair that'd be a pretty significant upgrade.

Except that he's a LHD, so, that's not happening. Realistically, with Babcock's preferences, we're looking at him for the 3rd pairing.

Hainsey is a lefty too.  No reason they can't swap out Hainsey for de Hann as an upgrade.
I think if they sign De Haan on a 4 year deal as some rumors have suggested then we're trading Gardiner cause we can't afford his next contract demand
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on July 03, 2018, 09:39:49 PM
I mean if he's replacing Hainsey on the top pair that'd be a pretty significant upgrade.

Except that he's a LHD, so, that's not happening. Realistically, with Babcock's preferences, we're looking at him for the 3rd pairing.

Hainsey is a lefty too.  No reason they can't swap out Hainsey for de Hann as an upgrade.
I think if they sign De Haan on a 4 year deal as some rumors have suggested then we're trading Gardiner cause we can't afford his next contract demand
I can see Gardiner getting traded at some point this season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 03, 2018, 09:43:08 PM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 03, 2018, 09:54:43 PM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Carolina's Defense:
Slavin-Pesce
De Haan-Hamilton
?-TvR
?-Faulk

So Gardiner Hainsey+Nielsen for Faulk+?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 03, 2018, 10:20:57 PM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Wait, Dubas didn't sign him?  So he failed then?  So he's like batting 500 now?  I don't know, he's starting to go down hill quickly.  I mean he's on a 1 signing losing streak right now.  He better do something soon to break this slump.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 03, 2018, 10:44:03 PM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Carolina's Defense:
Slavin-Pesce
De Haan-Hamilton
?-TvR
?-Faulk

So Gardiner Hainsey+Nielsen for Faulk+?

Thatís almost a Nashville-esque defense
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bates on July 03, 2018, 10:53:04 PM
I can't say I watch the Hurricanes that close but I woukdn't put that D anywhere near the conversation with Nashville. Nashville has 3 or 4 D that generate more offence than the top Carolina guy.
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Carolina's Defense:
Slavin-Pesce
De Haan-Hamilton
?-TvR
?-Faulk

So Gardiner Hainsey+Nielsen for Faulk+?

Thatís almost a Nashville-esque defense
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 04, 2018, 08:09:27 AM
Carolina wants goaltending. They may want Sparks for Faulk.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 04, 2018, 08:10:45 AM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

$4.55M per season. That's more than I would have signed him for.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2018, 08:15:37 AM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Can someone explain to me again why we had to give Zaitsev a 7-year deal?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 04, 2018, 09:11:22 AM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Can someone explain to me again why we had to give Zaitsev a 7-year deal?

Ask Lou.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bender on July 04, 2018, 10:35:29 AM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Can someone explain to me again why we had to give Zaitsev a 7-year deal?

Ask Lou.

Lou's an idiot.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: louisstamos on July 04, 2018, 10:39:11 AM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Can someone explain to me again why we had to give Zaitsev a 7-year deal?

Ask Lou.

Lou's an idiot.

Hey!  C'mon!

...oh, you were referring to other Lou.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 04, 2018, 10:39:45 AM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Can someone explain to me again why we had to give Zaitsev a 7-year deal?

Ask Lou.

Lou's an idiot.

Hey!  C'mon!

...oh, you were referring to other Lou.

 ;D
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2018, 10:51:30 AM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Carolina's Defense:
Slavin-Pesce
De Haan-Hamilton
?-TvR
?-Faulk

Man, with a defence corps like that the Hurricanes could probably make a pretty legitimate run in the playoffs if only they get above-average goalten... haha sorry I couldn't finish that sentence with a straight face.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 10:59:54 AM
Faulk isn't a bottom pairing guy, right?

You have to figure they're going to do something with a d-man there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 04, 2018, 11:15:43 AM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Carolina's Defense:
Slavin-Pesce
De Haan-Hamilton
?-TvR
?-Faulk

Man, with a defence corps like that the Hurricanes could probably make a pretty legitimate run in the playoffs if only they get above-average goalten... haha sorry I couldn't finish that sentence with a straight face.

They canít get scored on if the other team canít shoot at the net.
(https://imgflip.com/s/meme/Roll-Safe-Think-About-It.jpg)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2018, 11:16:59 AM
They canít get scored on if the other team canít shoot at the net.

Nah, they'd find a way.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 04, 2018, 11:51:18 AM
de Haan signed in Carolina. 4 year deal

Carolina's Defense:
Slavin-Pesce
De Haan-Hamilton
?-TvR
?-Faulk

So Gardiner Hainsey+Nielsen for Faulk+?

Iíve been looking at the leafs cap sheet here:

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

It suggests:

Projected cap hit:  $63,320,833

But that does not appear to include the bonus overage from last year (or does it? I wasnít quite sure).  Assuming it doesnít and the leafs want to keep this yearís performance bonuses on this yearís cap then we need to add:

Overage:  $2,550,000
This yearís bonusís:  $3,700,000

So that leaves us at:  ~$69,500,000

If Nylander signs at $7,000,000:  ~76,500,000
For 10 useable forwards (not including Horton), 6D, 2 goalies.
We need to sign a minimum of 3 more forwards and 1 more D.  If they average 700K, we are at

~79,300,000

Which, I think, is too close to the limit ó injuries will happen and to bring up players while avoiding LTIR, we are going to need at least 1million space.

I fear Iíve made a mistake (the bonus overages from last year?) because other people donít seem to put us this close to the edge.  If we are here, I donít see how we could add Faulk or anyone at all without trading out a larger salary... help?

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2018, 12:18:59 PM
I fear Iíve made a mistake (the bonus overages from last year?) because other people donít seem to put us this close to the edge.  If we are here, I donít see how we could add Faulk or anyone at all without trading out a larger salary... help?

Capfriendly's $63.3mil figure includes the $2.55mil overage from last season, so you've counted that twice.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 02:00:10 PM
Here is the cap sheet from Cap Friendly, which includes 9 forwards (plus Horton's full cap hit), 6 defensemen, 2 goalies, plus Kessel's salary retention and last years bonus overage:

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

I covered the scenario's for filling out the rest of the roster with in house guys yesterday, starting at $63.3M in Cap hit already accounted for as per above.



So, subtract another $3.7M from that immediately, as we really don't want to carry over any bonus money into 2019-2020 when the extensions for Matthews and Marner kick in.  That leaves just shy of $12.5M left to resign Nylander and Johnsson and fill out the rest of the roster with guys like Jooris, Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, Rosen etc.  (1-2 D, 2-3 F) who are on contracts under 1M. 

So, if you fill in 4 guys at approx. 1M, you've got $8.5M left to re-sign Nylander and Johnsson which should be do-able.  Any additions beyond that need to come with some salary subtracted, or we are heading into carrying over bonus money into next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2018, 02:08:02 PM
So we're pretty much looking at about $1mil in cap space left over as things stand right now.

I really wonder what the Leafs plan was if they actually got de Haan to sign.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 02:08:33 PM
I really wonder what the Leafs plan was if they actually got de Haan to sign.

Ideally, move Zaitsev.  Most likely, move Gardiner.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 04, 2018, 02:13:22 PM
Wonder how the right side of the defense will shape up. Those rumors of de Haan would only address a left spot, which is why I figured they would move on from Gardiner because 1) he's in the final year of his deal and will want a big raise 2) he's a left shot D 3) they've not moving Rielly or Dermott if de Haan was signed

The right side right now is : Hainsey, Zaitsev, Carrick/Holl/Ozhiganov ?  Something has to give, I don't think Dubas starts the year with that right side.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 02:49:37 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 04, 2018, 02:54:27 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

I know it's extremely shady, but could the Leafs still trade Horton to a team that wants to get to the cap floor and not use LTIR?  Basically have Horton on your payroll to reach the floor.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 02:57:01 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

Correct.  Don't forget, they also had Lupul's contract to LTIR the last few seasons.  So, it made no sense to have 10M+ in dead cap space just to avoid bonus overages going into the following season.  So they just LTIR'd both.

Once they are in LTIR, any bonuses the guys on rookie contracts get, has to be carried over.  If there is nobody on LTIR, then whatever cap space they have left at the end of the season can be used to cover the bonuses.  If there is any left, it still carries over. 

However, in 2019-2020 they cannot afford bonus overages with Matthews, Marner, and Nylander on their next contracts without subtracting a good player. 

So this season, their best bet is to avoid LTIR altogether and eat the bonuses under this years cap sheet- which means staying 3.7M below the cap.  And having Horton still eat 5.3M of cap space as well (ie, not on LTIR).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 02:57:18 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

I know it's extremely shady, but could the Leafs still trade Horton to a team that wants to get to the cap floor and not use LTIR?  Basically have Horton on your payroll to reach the floor.

Nobody seems to have any trouble hitting the floor any more, but even that were the case, there are far more palatable options than a guy that can't even play hockey for you.

Also, you can't pay for someone whose cap hit is with another team.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: louisstamos on July 04, 2018, 02:58:01 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)


I know it's extremely shady, but could the Leafs still trade Horton to a team that wants to get to the cap floor and not use LTIR?  Basically have Horton on your payroll to reach the floor.


Only 3 teams haven't hit the floor yet - the Rangers, Devils and Jets.  And the Jets are going to spend it on someone, that's for sure.

You can still trade Horton to a team with tons of cap space, but it's probably costing an decent asset to do so.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 04, 2018, 02:59:07 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

I know it's extremely shady, but could the Leafs still trade Horton to a team that wants to get to the cap floor and not use LTIR?  Basically have Horton on your payroll to reach the floor.

They could, but said team would be paying a player not to play.  Part of the problem with Horton's contract is that it is not insured.  So a team trying to get to the floor may not like this scenario.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 03:01:08 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

I know it's extremely shady, but could the Leafs still trade Horton to a team that wants to get to the cap floor and not use LTIR?  Basically have Horton on your payroll to reach the floor.

Isn't the thing about the Horton deal, the whole reason we were able to move Clarkson for him, that the deal isn't insured? So any team acquiring it actually has to pay him out of pocket?

If so itd be pretty tough for other teams to just absorb it the way MLSE can.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 04, 2018, 03:01:10 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

Correct.  Don't forget, they also had Lupul's contract to LTIR the last few seasons.  So, it made no sense to have 10M+ in dead cap space just to avoid bonus overages going into the following season.  So they just LTIR'd both.

Once they are in LTIR, any bonuses the guys on rookie contracts get, has to be carried over.  If there is nobody on LTIR, then whatever cap space they have left at the end of the season can be used to cover the bonuses.  If there is any left, it still carries over. 

However, in 2019-2020 they cannot afford bonus overages with Matthews, Marner, and Nylander on their next contracts without subtracting a good player. 

So this season, their best bet is to avoid LTIR altogether and eat the bonuses under this years cap sheet- which means staying 3.7M below the cap.  And having Horton still eat 5.3M of cap space as well (ie, not on LTIR).

Thankfully they have Pridham and Gilman to figure this crap out.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 03:01:58 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

Correct.  Don't forget, they also had Lupul's contract to LTIR the last few seasons.  So, it made no sense to have 10M+ in dead cap space just to avoid bonus overages going into the following season.  So they just LTIR'd both.

Once they are in LTIR, any bonuses the guys on rookie contracts get, has to be carried over.  If there is nobody on LTIR, then whatever cap space they have left at the end of the season can be used to cover the bonuses.  If there is any left, it still carries over. 

However, in 2019-2020 they cannot afford bonus overages with Matthews, Marner, and Nylander on their next contracts without subtracting a good player. 

So this season, their best bet is to avoid LTIR altogether and eat the bonuses under this years cap sheet- which means staying 3.7M below the cap.  And having Horton still eat 5.3M of cap space as well (ie, not on LTIR).

Good, so I kind of understood it.  So this season is more unique in that Horton's hit will not be LTIR'd, and Lupul's deal has expired.

So, it would be super convenient if they could shed the Horton contract, given the sudden cap crunch around here.

On a cap hit of $5.3m, he's owed $4.5m this season, and $3.6m the next, according to Capfriendly.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 03:02:06 PM
I know it's extremely shady, but could the Leafs still trade Horton to a team that wants to get to the cap floor and not use LTIR?  Basically have Horton on your payroll to reach the floor.

Its not shady at all.  They are free to do it.  The problem is, Horton's contract is not insured.  Typically an injured player salary is covered by insurance, meaning the team taking on the contract doesn't actually have to pay most of the salary.  Since Horton does not have insurance, the acquiring team will be paying his full salary.

Luckily, his contract was backloaded.  He's only owed 4.5M this year and 3.6M next year.  We would have to sweeten the deal, but I can see us trading his contract at the deadline this year or next offseason when the total money owed is less than 5M.  Probably have to give up a draft pick to do so, but that 5.3M in cap hit NEEDS to disappear next season- and if the right rental is available at the deadline this year- maybe at the deadline too.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 04, 2018, 03:08:32 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

If you use LTIR itís because youíre at the cap limit and need extra space, at that point any bonuses accrued are pushed to the following year because youíre capped out.

By keeping enough space to have Horton on the normal cap and room for whatever bonuses Matthews and Marner earn this season means that nothing in terms of bonuses would be carried into next season when things are a little tighter.

I think there has been a lot of unnecessary hand wringing about the salary cap from people who are either too lazy, dumb or unprofessional to look at things closely, the frustrating part is itís usually those people with the loudest voices when predicting doom and gloom.

The Athletic had a piece yesterday that predicted 12 forwards, 6 d and approximately 10 million in cap space or if they wanted to go all in for one year 15.5 million in cap space with Horton on LTIR.

If the Leafs donít make a significant addition to go all out this year they could leave Horton off LTIR and have about 4.5 million in cap that would account for whatever bonuses Marner and Matthews hit this year, giving them more of a blank slate next year when they are squeezed.

Personally Iíd explore acquiring a legit young RD prospect by eating a bad contract.

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?), Gardiner, Horton, Hainsey, Brown. Thatís another $20 million in cap space right there.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 03:15:54 PM
I think I ask this every year, but what they've normally done is push Horton's cap hit into LTIR on day - 1 of the season, correct?

But this affects the others' bonus $$ not being able to be kept in the 18-19 cap?  (this is more of a question)

If you use LTIR itís because youíre at the cap limit and need extra space, at that point any bonuses accrued are pushed to the following year because youíre capped out.

By keeping enough space to have Horton on the normal cap and room for whatever bonuses Matthews and Marner earn this season means that nothing in terms of bonuses would be carried into next season when things are a little tighter.

I think there has been a lot of unnecessary hand wringing about the salary cap from people who are either too lazy, dumb or unprofessional to look at things closely, the frustrating part is itís usually those people with the loudest voices when predicting doom and gloom.

The Athletic had a piece yesterday that predicted 12 forwards, 6 d and approximately 10 million in cap space or if they wanted to go all in for one year 15.5 million in cap space with Horton on LTIR.

If the Leafs donít make a significant addition to go all out this year they could leave Horton off LTIR and have about 4.5 million in cap that would account for whatever bonuses Marner and Matthews hit this year, giving them more of a blank slate next year when they are squeezed.

Personally Iíd explore acquiring a legit young RD prospect by eating a bad contract.

Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?), Gardiner, Horton, Hainsey, Brown. Thatís another $20 million in cap space right there.

Please see some earlier posts.  We can't afford to eat a bad contract right now, not without moving something significant out.  Once we sign Nylander and Johnsson to their contracts and fill out our roster (Lindholm, Jooris, Holl, Borgman etc) we will probably have about 4.5M left over.  We need to keep 3.7M in space to absorb the potential bonuses that Matthews and Marner can earn.  So we only have about 1M in space- not enough to eat a bad contract.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2018, 03:21:19 PM
The Athletic had a piece yesterday that predicted 12 forwards, 6 d and approximately 10 million in cap space or if they wanted to go all in for one year 15.5 million in cap space with Horton on LTIR.

Link? Because as Coco said I don't see the situation like that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 03:25:31 PM
Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 03:27:07 PM
Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

You can save 300k here and there by swapping Jooris and Holl for Moore and Borgman, but we are still talking about only having around 1M in cap space- which we might need if anyone gets injured and you need to call up a replacement.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 04, 2018, 03:28:02 PM
Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2018, 03:29:31 PM
You can save 300k here and there by swapping Jooris and Holl for Moore and Borgman, but we are still talking about only having around 1M in cap space- which we might need if anyone gets injured and you need to call up a replacement.

Could save $200k too by swapping McBackup with Sparks.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 03:30:41 PM
Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

Question:  What about the performance bonuses for Lindholm and Moore?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2018, 03:31:22 PM
Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

I was in the group of people who felt his 3rd year was essentially a sham year and he definitely wouldn't play it out, but with this forward group now if he feels like he wants another shot at the Cup I think he'll go for it there.

On the other hand if we win the Cup this season I could see him retiring on top.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 03:31:48 PM
Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 03:32:20 PM
You can save 300k here and there by swapping Jooris and Holl for Moore and Borgman, but we are still talking about only having around 1M in cap space- which we might need if anyone gets injured and you need to call up a replacement.

Could save $200k too by swapping McBackup with Sparks.

Ah, yes.  And I expect that swap to happen.  Going to change it in the armchair gm team I posted.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 03:35:03 PM
Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

Question:  What about the performance bonuses for Lindholm and Moore?

Yes, they both have the potential to hit up to 850k in bonuses each (in 212.5k chunks).  Typically you need like 20 goal seasons and such to hit them.  Its a possibility, but I don't think we need to worry about that at this moment yet.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on July 04, 2018, 03:36:19 PM
Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..

LTIR would work, too, but, also not something you can bank on. While the Leafs did send players to "Robidas Island," those were all guys who had a history of significant injuries.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 03:36:34 PM
Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

Question:  What about the performance bonuses for Lindholm and Moore?

Yes, they both have the potential to hit up to 850k in bonuses each (in 212.5k chunks).  Typically you need like 20 goal seasons and such to hit them.  Its a possibility, but I don't think we need to worry about that at this moment yet.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 04, 2018, 03:37:17 PM
Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..

Best case, Leafs win Cup, Marleau agrees to go back to San Jose to retire a Shark?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 03:51:29 PM
Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..

Best case, Leafs win Cup, Marleau agrees to go back to San Jose to retire a Shark?

We can say that, except that he's a pretty productive player.

Even if he doesn't score 27 this season, which he could very well, he's not easy to replace.  Defensively responsible, great shot, skates really well...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on July 04, 2018, 04:00:20 PM
Next season you can potentially shed Marleau (LTIR or trade, will he want to play for approx a million in actual salary?)

I wouldn't be banking on this. If Marleau thinks he has a shot at winning the Cup, he'll play. He also has full NMC, so, he's not going anywhere if he doesn't want to - and, quite frankly, unless he tails off big time this season, I don't expect the Leafs to be looking to rid themselves of him, either.

Unless we win the cup this year.  Then maybe Marleau goes out on top, considering he's only got a small bit of money coming next year.  Since its a 35+ contract though, Leafs would have to trade him (which, he would waive to do so) to a team willing to absorb the cap hit without actually paying him anything..

Best case, Leafs win Cup, Marleau agrees to go back to San Jose to retire a Shark?

We can say that, except that he's a pretty productive player.

Even if he doesn't score 27 this season, which he could very well, he's not easy to replace.  Defensively responsible, great shot, skates really well...

He's going to have to be replaced at some point.  He's turning 40 before the 3rd year of his deal, is he playing to Jagr age?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 04:02:32 PM
Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

So help me out here. I know the thinking is that we need a certain amount of cap space for potential bonuses because the last thing we want is for to get hit for an overage in the year where the big extensions kick in.

But, worst case scenario, isn't it a little bit manageable to deal with that overage if you make one or two fairly reasonable cost saving measures? Wasn't the whole point of drafting so heavily on the wing these last few years that someone like Bracco or Grundstrom or Korshkov could step in for Hyman or Brown relatively soon? So if you have to trade a guy or two, I don't think the Leafs couldn't deal with the overage in 19-20 and then the year after that Marleau and Hainsey are off the books and there's a bit more breathing room.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 04:03:36 PM

Best case, Leafs win Cup, Marleau agrees to go back to San Jose to retire a Shark?

We can say that, except that he's a pretty productive player.

Even if he doesn't score 27 this season, which he could very well, he's not easy to replace.  Defensively responsible, great shot, skates really well...

He's going to have to be replaced at some point.  He's turning 40 before the 3rd year of his deal, is he playing to Jagr age?

I'm willing to bet we'll have an internal option ready to replace him by the time he's through this contract.  Grundstrom being the likely candidate at this point.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 04, 2018, 04:05:04 PM
,
I fear Iíve made a mistake (the bonus overages from last year?) because other people donít seem to put us this close to the edge.  If we are here, I donít see how we could add Faulk or anyone at all without trading out a larger salary... help?

Capfriendly's $63.3mil figure includes the $2.55mil overage from last season, so you've counted that twice.

... that is what I was afraid of ...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 04:05:44 PM
Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

So help me out here. I know the thinking is that we need a certain amount of cap space for potential bonuses because the last thing we want is for to get hit for an overage in the year where the big extensions kick in.

But, worst case scenario, isn't it a little bit manageable to deal with that overage if you make one or two fairly reasonable cost saving measures? Wasn't the whole point of drafting so heavily on the wing these last few years that someone like Bracco or Grundstrom or Korshkov could step in for Hyman or Brown relatively soon? So if you have to trade a guy or two, I don't think the Leafs couldn't deal with the overage in 19-20 and then the year after that Marleau and Hainsey are off the books and there's a bit more breathing room.

Hainsey's done after this year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 04:06:24 PM
Hainsey's done after this year.

Even better.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 04:10:23 PM
Hainsey's done after this year.

Even better.

Yep, but I think my answer to the post would be that it would be more ideal to have that cap space next season, just in case another need arises, or whatever arises.

The easy answer is that I don't think it's hard to make cap space by trading out good hockey players that make a lot of money.  The down side is that you're replacing a predictably productive player with a bit of an unknown.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 04:16:43 PM
The easy answer is that I don't think it's hard to make cap space by trading out good hockey players that make a lot of money.  The down side is that you're replacing a predictably productive player with a bit of an unknown.

Sure, but I don't think we can pretend that holding onto the big 4 forwards the Leafs will be building around means that they won't have to make those sorts of decisions. Pittsburgh has had to be pretty unsentimental with their wings over the years and trust they can find guys to play with their superstars on the cheap.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 04:18:45 PM
Does this work for you guys?

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781507

I signed Nylander for 6.75M x 8 and Johnsson for 1.25M x 2 and added Lindholm, Moore, Borgman, and Ozhiganov to the roster to get to 23 men (Horton on IR, not LTIR).  I'm at 4.48M in cap space.  We need 3.7M available for potential bonuses to Matthews and Marner.

So help me out here. I know the thinking is that we need a certain amount of cap space for potential bonuses because the last thing we want is for to get hit for an overage in the year where the big extensions kick in.

But, worst case scenario, isn't it a little bit manageable to deal with that overage if you make one or two fairly reasonable cost saving measures? Wasn't the whole point of drafting so heavily on the wing these last few years that someone like Bracco or Grundstrom or Korshkov could step in for Hyman or Brown relatively soon? So if you have to trade a guy or two, I don't think the Leafs couldn't deal with the overage in 19-20 and then the year after that Marleau and Hainsey are off the books and there's a bit more breathing room.

You do make a good point here.  I think having some overage carry over isn't the end of the world, but it might mean cutting ties with one of the guys you mentioned. However, I think going into LTIR this season and carrying over almost 4M means cutting alot more ties because for every 2M player you cut out, you still have to pay his replacement 1M. 

19-20 is tight already.  In my armchair gm, if you click on Long Term Outlook:

We're a shade under 56M with 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and Freddie signed.  Looking at this again, I see no reason to trade Horton's contract, because in 2019-2020 you are more comfortable putting him on LTIR, so subtract the 5.3M.  You're at 50.7M.  So, lets be conservative and say the cap goes to 80.7M so we have a nice round 30M to work with:

Matthews:  11M
Marner:  7M

So now you've got 12M left to sign:

- Kapanen and three other depth forwards.  (budget 4.5-5M?)
- Backup goalie (budget 1M)
- 4 defensemen (with 6.5M???) 

And that's with zero bonus overage carried over.  We may have to cut ties with the Brown/Hyman/Kapanen types just to have a d-core that's as good as we have now.

Yeah, there is a crunch coming. Lets plan to not carry over any bonus money and make it worse.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2018, 04:19:51 PM
So help me out here. I know the thinking is that we need a certain amount of cap space for potential bonuses because the last thing we want is for to get hit for an overage in the year where the big extensions kick in.

But, worst case scenario, isn't it a little bit manageable to deal with that overage if you make one or two fairly reasonable cost saving measures? Wasn't the whole point of drafting so heavily on the wing these last few years that someone like Bracco or Grundstrom or Korshkov could step in for Hyman or Brown relatively soon? So if you have to trade a guy or two, I don't think the Leafs couldn't deal with the overage in 19-20 and then the year after that Marleau and Hainsey are off the books and there's a bit more breathing room.

Dealing with an overage in 19/20 certainly wouldn't be the end of the world there just better be a good reason to do it. Like if we're looking to take a salary dump like Steve Mason I'd want a heck of a lot more back than just Joel Armia.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 04:32:49 PM
The easy answer is that I don't think it's hard to make cap space by trading out good hockey players that make a lot of money.  The down side is that you're replacing a predictably productive player with a bit of an unknown.

Sure, but I don't think we can pretend that holding onto the big 4 forwards the Leafs will be building around means that they won't have to make those sorts of decisions. Pittsburgh has had to be pretty unsentimental with their wings over the years and trust they can find guys to play with their superstars on the cheap.

I agree, it's just that originally we were talking about whether or not to worry about carrying over a bonus overage so that next year they wouldn't have to make one of those riskier decisions on the wing ie: Grundstrom in Brown out.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 04:36:06 PM
I agree, it's just that originally we were talking about whether or not to worry about carrying over a bonus overage so that next year they wouldn't have to make one of those riskier decisions on the wing ie: Grundstrom in Brown out.

Ok, but is that really risky? Or is that just a good move regardless? Because if Brown is the team's 4th line RW shouldn't we be looking to move him anyway?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 04:37:49 PM
The easy answer is that I don't think it's hard to make cap space by trading out good hockey players that make a lot of money.  The down side is that you're replacing a predictably productive player with a bit of an unknown.

Sure, but I don't think we can pretend that holding onto the big 4 forwards the Leafs will be building around means that they won't have to make those sorts of decisions. Pittsburgh has had to be pretty unsentimental with their wings over the years and trust they can find guys to play with their superstars on the cheap.

I agree, it's just that originally we were talking about whether or not to worry about carrying over a bonus overage so that next year they wouldn't have to make one of those riskier decisions on the wing ie: Grundstrom in Brown out.

Well, first we were talking about eating into alot more cap space and putting Horton on LTIR- which means most likely having a 3.7M bonus overage.  Now the discussion has shifted to "what about a little bit of overage".

As it stands right now, if we want to keep Gardiner, on say a 6M AAV contract (which would be a discount) beyond this season we are already going to have to part ways with some of our complimentary wingers (Brown/Hyman/Kapanen) and replace them with guys making 1M or less.

Otherwise, we're losing Gardiner and (to a lesser concern) Hainsey and replacing them with our internal options to stay cap compliant in 2019-2020 WITHOUT bonus overages.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on July 04, 2018, 04:44:16 PM
I agree, it's just that originally we were talking about whether or not to worry about carrying over a bonus overage so that next year they wouldn't have to make one of those riskier decisions on the wing ie: Grundstrom in Brown out.

Ok, but is that really risky? Or is that just a good move regardless? Because if Brown is the team's 4th line RW shouldn't we be looking to move him anyway?

Besides, 2019-20 is the last season of Brown's contract. I'd want to trade him before it expires for max return.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 04:47:02 PM

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 04:53:53 PM
Ok, but is that really risky? Or is that just a good move regardless? Because if Brown is the team's 4th line RW shouldn't we be looking to move him anyway?

Riskier?  I'd say so.  Likely inevitable though.  Best hope that Grundstrom and Korshkov can kill penalties.


Otherwise, we're losing Gardiner and (to a lesser concern) Hainsey and replacing them with our internal options to stay cap compliant in 2019-2020 WITHOUT bonus overages.

And I guess this is when we say that $2m 4th line wingers is not an option.

Or, you cash a guy like Gardiner in for some prospects that will come in around 20-22 years old and replace Hainsey and Zaitsev, on much cheaper deals.

It's almost like it would have been really handy to have some prospects/picks for JVR and Bozak.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 04:54:36 PM

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 04:56:26 PM

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759

So perhaps this is why Dubas may have been in hot and heavy on de Haan...they've already decided that Gardiner is out.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 04:57:13 PM

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759

Also, if you trade someone like Brown for a prospect or pick, then you can replace him with two guys at a lower cost.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2018, 04:58:52 PM

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759

So perhaps this is why Dubas may have been in hot and heavy on de Haan...they've already decided that Gardiner is out.

Yes, if his target price for de Haan was say $4 million (or under) then that gives you some extra breathing room to fill out your roster.  Trade Brown and Hyman out and replace with guys on ELC and you might be able to afford another $4M d-man as well.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 04, 2018, 05:05:18 PM

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I'm on this boat. He's on the wrong side and going to cash in. Not the best way to spend money. And like JVR, I'm on the trade him this season boat too. Get a return. I doubt they'll do that though. He'll walk in free agency.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 05:06:36 PM
Riskier?  I'd say so.  Likely inevitable though.  Best hope that Grundstrom and Korshkov can kill

Yeah it feels riskier to be so afraid of change that you don't create opportunities for guys you've drafted in the 2nd round to crack the lineup until they're 24.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on July 04, 2018, 05:20:40 PM

For what it's worth I've never seen re-signing Gardiner as a particularly viable option.

I can get us there if we go with lots of youth and only carry a 21 man roster (and Gardiner signs a team friendly deal).  And we have no bonus overages!

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/781759
So perhaps this is why Dubas may have been in hot and heavy on de Haan...they've already decided that Gardiner is out.
Yes, if his target price for de Haan was say $4 million (or under) then that gives you some extra breathing room to fill out your roster.  Trade Brown and Hyman out and replace with guys on ELC and you might be able to afford another $4M d-man as well.

Except if the idea was to replace Gardiner, then Dubas still should've been in on de Haan at $4.5mx4. That's probably a savings of at least $2m/year on what Gardiner will get nd less term -- still plenty of breathing room. So I have doubts the proposed moves are that closely connected.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on July 04, 2018, 05:44:17 PM
The more I think about the center ice position, and the gaps on defence, the more I think you have to consider moving Kadri.

He's just too valuable to play 3rd pairing minutes, and he'd fetch a ton in return.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 05:50:43 PM
The more I think about the center ice position, and the gaps on defence, the more I think you have to consider moving Kadri.

He's just too valuable to play 3rd pairing minutes, and he'd fetch a ton in return.

Eventually, sure. But not until they have some decent internal options to replace him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on July 04, 2018, 05:56:11 PM
The more I think about the center ice position, and the gaps on defence, the more I think you have to consider moving Kadri.

He's just too valuable to play 3rd pairing minutes, and he'd fetch a ton in return.

Eventually, sure. But not until they have some decent internal options to replace him.

Well, Nylander is there.. and if Kadri's production goes down by nature of limited TOI, won't that hurt his value?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 06:02:54 PM
The more I think about the center ice position, and the gaps on defence, the more I think you have to consider moving Kadri.

He's just too valuable to play 3rd pairing minutes, and he'd fetch a ton in return.

Eventually, sure. But not until they have some decent internal options to replace him.

Well, Nylander is there.. and if Kadri's production goes down by nature of limited TOI, won't that hurt his value?

It makes way less sense to pay Nylander 7 million to be a 3rd line C than it does to pay Kadri 4.5 to do it.

Kadri's deal is such good value that I really question if it's possible to spend the money any better.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 06:12:40 PM

Except if the idea was to replace Gardiner, then Dubas still should've been in on de Haan at $4.5mx4. That's probably a savings of at least $2m/year on what Gardiner will get nd less term -- still plenty of breathing room. So I have doubts the proposed moves are that closely connected.

Not necessarily, maybe he did offer that and de Haan decided on Carolina...or he valued de Haan at $4m, or less, and will consider other options now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 04, 2018, 06:21:05 PM
Riskier?  I'd say so.  Likely inevitable though.  Best hope that Grundstrom and Korshkov can kill

Yeah it feels riskier to be so afraid of change that you don't create opportunities for guys you've drafted in the 2nd round to crack the lineup until they're 24.

Let's allow Grundstrom to finish his cup of coffee on the smaller ice surface before we start penciling him into a Stanley Cup contending lineup. I don't think anyone is "afraid of change", I think it's more "which player is more likely to make us better".

I'm comfortable with my opinion that Grundstrom would be riskier than having Brown or Hyman there.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 04, 2018, 07:11:02 PM
The Athletic had a piece yesterday that predicted 12 forwards, 6 d and approximately 10 million in cap space or if they wanted to go all in for one year 15.5 million in cap space with Horton on LTIR.

Link? Because as Coco said I don't see the situation like that.

Updated 2018-19 Maple Leafs depth chart: Now with more Tavares https://theathletic.com/418287/2018/07/02/updated-2018-19-maple-leafs-depth-chart-now-with-more-tavares/
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on July 04, 2018, 08:05:20 PM
Updated 2018-19 Maple Leafs depth chart: Now with more Tavares https://theathletic.com/418287/2018/07/02/updated-2018-19-maple-leafs-depth-chart-now-with-more-tavares/

No paywall and lots of player info on this one:
https://www.rosterresource.com/nhl-toronto-maple-leafs/

Lookit all those high picks!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 04, 2018, 11:31:46 PM
Let's allow Grundstrom to finish his cup of coffee on the smaller ice surface before we start penciling him into a Stanley Cup contending lineup. I don't think anyone is "afraid of change", I think it's more "which player is more likely to make us better".

I'm not sure why you're hung up on Grundstrom particularly but this is for a year out where he'll have been around for a while. That said, it's not really about him. If none of the roughly four thousand guys the Leafs have drafted on the wing are capable of giving them decent 4th line minutes a year out it'd be pretty disappointing but even then the thing you do is go out and get that year's version of Dominic Moore.

It's the 4th line. Who's on it isn't exactly a big deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 05, 2018, 08:02:19 AM
I was a bit befuddled by Hyman with Tavares on the initial lineup Babcock mentioned, but it sounds like he is building lines by playstyle:

Rush attack: Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Cycle/Heavy possession: Hyman-Tavares-Marner
Opportunistic net crash/Shutdown: Johnsson-Kadri-Brown/Kapanen
Specialists: Leivo-Lindholm-Kapanen/Brown
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 05, 2018, 08:14:50 AM

The year is 2021. Zaitsev's just posted his 5th straight NHL season with below average results.

"Yeah, but his kid is just starting grade school finally so he'll improve now!"
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 05, 2018, 09:33:31 AM

He had a concussion at the end of last season (bye conditioning), broken foot mid-season (bye conditioning), and mega flu in the latter third (bye strength and conditioning).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 05, 2018, 10:07:53 AM

He had a concussion at the end of last season (bye conditioning), broken foot mid-season (bye conditioning), and mega flu in the latter third (bye strength and conditioning).

Yeah, his results weren't good last season and I get the concern with his contract (way too much term, a little bit too much AAV).  But 2nd pair defenders generally make in the 4M-5M range.  I do think he's fine as a #4 defender, but his cost is closer to a #3 which is unfortunate.

In his first season in the NHL he was on the TOP pair with heavy D-zone usage and didn't have that poor of results except for luck (49.26% CF, 48.96% xGF%, 44.53% GF%, 98.88 PDO)

He was behind the 8-ball all year with injuries/conditioning as herman pointed out, and other than his CF% being worse (47.49) his xGF% and GF% were better (49.98/52.58 respectively).  PDO went the total opposite way (102.38), so yeah some regression can be expected there. 

I DO expect a bounce back year from him.  Especially if Babcock stops asking his RD to pump it out off the glass or stretch the pass for a tip-dump in.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on July 05, 2018, 02:51:40 PM

He had a concussion at the end of last season (bye conditioning), broken foot mid-season (bye conditioning), and mega flu in the latter third (bye strength and conditioning).

Yeah, his results weren't good last season and I get the concern with his contract (way too much term, a little bit too much AAV).  But 2nd pair defenders generally make in the 4M-5M range.  I do think he's fine as a #4 defender, but his cost is closer to a #3 which is unfortunate.

In his first season in the NHL he was on the TOP pair with heavy D-zone usage and didn't have that poor of results except for luck (49.26% CF, 48.96% xGF%, 44.53% GF%, 98.88 PDO)

He was behind the 8-ball all year with injuries/conditioning as herman pointed out, and other than his CF% being worse (47.49) his xGF% and GF% were better (49.98/52.58 respectively).  PDO went the total opposite way (102.38), so yeah some regression can be expected there. 

I DO expect a bounce back year from him.  Especially if Babcock stops asking his RD to pump it out off the glass or stretch the pass for a tip-dump in.

Yea, I think that the extent to which that weird "forwards at the blue line for non-stop stretch passes" breakout tactic negatively affected a lot of the defensemen last year has been woefully underrated. The Reilly-Zaitsev (pre-concussion) and Gardiner-Carrick pairings from the preceding year (when that breakout tactic was rarely, if ever, used) looked a lot better, imo.

Honestly, apart from the somewhat beguiling performances that have a tendency to befall Andersen at certain, if not crucial, times, I'm more concerned about Babcock being this team's Achilles heel. I'm still haunted by the possibilities that by the end of next year, Zach Hyman is going to be leading this team in ice time, Johnsson and/or Kapanen will still be 4th liners/healthy scratches and the forwards will be standing still at the opposing blue line waiting for a dump and chase.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 05, 2018, 03:28:07 PM
Honestly, apart from the somewhat beguiling performances that have a tendency to befall Andersen at certain, if not crucial, times, I'm more concerned about Babcock being this team's Achilles heel. I'm still haunted by the possibilities that by the end of next year, Zach Hyman is going to be leading this team in ice time, Johnsson and/or Kapanen will still be 4th liners/healthy scratches and the forwards will be standing still at the opposing blue line waiting for a dump and chase.

Hyman leading in ice time would basically mean the Leafs jumped to leads early and often.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 06, 2018, 09:17:48 AM
Mirtle mentioned in an article yesterday that the Leafs were looking into Patrick Maroon.

Similar to de Haan, not sure where he'd fit into the roster composition unless you want Johnsson playing 4th line minutes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 06, 2018, 10:02:17 AM
Mirtle mentioned in an article yesterday that the Leafs were looking into Patrick Maroon.

Similar to de Haan, not sure where he'd fit into the roster composition unless you want Johnsson playing 4th line minutes.

At least De Haan made sense in that you were probably going to lose Gardiner soon, so acquring his replacement makes it easy to get some assets for him or have a much stronger blueline for one year to go for it.

Maroon doesn't make the same kinda sense.  Unless they are going to package one of those LW's (probably not Marleau) to address the defense.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 06, 2018, 10:05:00 AM
Mirtle mentioned in an article yesterday that the Leafs were looking into Patrick Maroon.

Similar to de Haan, not sure where he'd fit into the roster composition unless you want Johnsson playing 4th line minutes.

At least De Haan made sense in that you were probably going to lose Gardiner soon, so acquring his replacement makes it easy to get some assets for him or have a much stronger blueline for one year to go for it.

Maroon doesn't make the same kinda sense.  Unless they are going to package one of those LW's (probably not Marleau) to address the defense.

Maybe they wouldn't mind this:
Marleau - Matthews - Nylander
Maroon - Tavares - Marner
Johnsson - Kadri - Hyman
Kapanen - Lindholm - Brown
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 06, 2018, 10:12:10 AM
Mirtle mentioned in an article yesterday that the Leafs were looking into Patrick Maroon.

Similar to de Haan, not sure where he'd fit into the roster composition unless you want Johnsson playing 4th line minutes.

At least De Haan made sense in that you were probably going to lose Gardiner soon, so acquring his replacement makes it easy to get some assets for him or have a much stronger blueline for one year to go for it.

Maroon doesn't make the same kinda sense.  Unless they are going to package one of those LW's (probably not Marleau) to address the defense.

Maybe they wouldn't mind this:
Marleau - Matthews - Nylander
Maroon - Tavares - Marner
Johnsson - Kadri - Hyman
Kapanen - Lindholm - Brown

Swap Hyman and Kapanen and I'm happy.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 06, 2018, 10:20:41 AM
I have Hyman up there because Kadri is still going to run the matchup line at home. On the road, yeah letís stack more offensive potential on the overmatch 3rd line.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on July 06, 2018, 10:22:31 AM
Marleau is nearing 40, Hyman is a good 4th liner and Johnsson is still an unknown NHL commodity so I understand sniffing around Maroon. As long as Johnsson plays on the 3rd line, I think he'd fit in just fine:

Maroon    Matthews   Nylander
Marleau   Tavares     Marner
Johnsson  Kadri        Kapanen
Hyman     Lindholm  Brown
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 06, 2018, 10:28:29 AM
I have Hyman up there because Kadri is still going to run the matchup line at home. On the road, yeah letís stack more offensive potential on the overmatch 3rd line.

I think Hyman is a bit overrated defensively tbh.  He's most effective as a displacement forechecker. He also doesn't transition the puck well by himself.  If I'm starting someone in the defensive zone alot, I definitely want someone defensively responsible, but I also want someone who's going to get the puck into the offensive zone rather quickly and that's why I prefer Kapanen there.  Also, if Kapanen and Brown are your two 4th line wingers, Brown will be switching sides before Kapanen and you can take that to the bank.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 06, 2018, 10:29:24 AM
Marleau is nearing 40, Hyman is a good 4th liner and Johnsson is still an unknown NHL commodity so I understand sniffing around Maroon. As long as Johnsson plays on the 3rd line, I think he'd fit in just fine:

Maroon    Matthews   Nylander
Marleau   Tavares     Marner
Johnsson  Kadri        Kapanen
Hyman     Lindholm  Brown

I still like Maroon with Tavares and Marner, if no other reason than to say its the London Knights Connection line.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 06, 2018, 10:30:55 AM
I still like Maroon with Tavares and Marner, if no other reason than to say its the London Knights Connection line.

Stylistically it's pretty darn similar to the Lee-Tavares-Bailey line that he had a lot of success with too.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 06, 2018, 10:35:10 AM
I still like Maroon with Tavares and Marner, if no other reason than to say its the London Knights Connection line.

Stylistically it's pretty darn similar to the Lee-Tavares-Bailey line that he had a lot of success with too.

Very true.

Add Kadri to that forward line for PP1 and its the London Knights Connection PP.  Although I don't know if Maroon on the left flank would work well.

Speaking of the PP.... I seriously can't wait for the first PP of the season where we trot out:

Tavares
WHOCARES - Kadri - Marner
Rielly

Marleau
Matthews - Johnsson - Nylander
Gardiner
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 06, 2018, 11:05:30 AM
I have Hyman up there because Kadri is still going to run the matchup line at home. On the road, yeah letís stack more offensive potential on the overmatch 3rd line.

I think Hyman is a bit overrated defensively tbh.  He's most effective as a displacement forechecker. He also doesn't transition the puck well by himself.  If I'm starting someone in the defensive zone alot, I definitely want someone defensively responsible, but I also want someone who's going to get the puck into the offensive zone rather quickly and that's why I prefer Kapanen there.  Also, if Kapanen and Brown are your two 4th line wingers, Brown will be switching sides before Kapanen and you can take that to the bank.

Hyman and Brown are always on top of the play, and defensively playing on the strong side is more effective, so I prefer them both on the right side where possible. i.e. if we are still blowing the zone, I'd like these two to be the hanging back/red-line option, or mucking the puck out in the first place.

I think your better puck handlers should be the off-wing option. i.e. Kapanen and pretty much every European scoring winger plays or has played off-wing, due to space and offensive scoring options.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 06, 2018, 11:17:37 AM
I have Hyman up there because Kadri is still going to run the matchup line at home. On the road, yeah letís stack more offensive potential on the overmatch 3rd line.

I think Hyman is a bit overrated defensively tbh.  He's most effective as a displacement forechecker. He also doesn't transition the puck well by himself.  If I'm starting someone in the defensive zone alot, I definitely want someone defensively responsible, but I also want someone who's going to get the puck into the offensive zone rather quickly and that's why I prefer Kapanen there.  Also, if Kapanen and Brown are your two 4th line wingers, Brown will be switching sides before Kapanen and you can take that to the bank.

Hyman and Brown are always on top of the play, and defensively playing on the strong side is more effective, so I prefer them both on the right side where possible. i.e. if we are still blowing the zone, I'd like these two to be the hanging back/red-line option, or mucking the puck out in the first place.

I think your better puck handlers should be the off-wing option. i.e. Kapanen and pretty much every European scoring winger plays or has played off-wing, due to space and offensive scoring options.

Oh, I think I'd prefer Kapanen on the off wing as you said.  But we are talking about WHO will be on the offside in that scenario and you aren't taking Babcock's tendencies into account.  (Hint:  He almost always puts the more veteran/dependable guy on his off wing)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 06, 2018, 11:24:34 AM
(Hint:  He almost always puts the more veteran/dependable guy on his off wing)

My theory is that he off-wings the player who doesn't need the puck to play his best. And it goes into which winger makes up the 3rd player on a line pairing. I don't know it veteranness or trust goes into it that much, other than he trusts players who know how to play without the puck and they tend to be veterans.

His pairs are generally Center + opposite handed Winger for smoother , and a mucker/digger who doesn't need the puck to be good on the opposite side.

Matthews + Nylander: add off-wing Hyman who never needs the puck to be effective.
Kadri + Marner: add Marleau on Kadri's backhand because he always knows where soft ice is; bonus handedness match with Marner when they get sprung on stretch passes.
Tavares + Marner: Add Hyman as above.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 06, 2018, 11:54:40 AM
Babcock has often said that in his forward lines he likes to have pairings.  So the pairings in the past have been:

Hyman - Matthews  ( I would rather say Nylander, but he is the guy that gets moved)
Marleau - Kadri
JVR - Bozak.

So based on that, I could see the pairings moving to something like this:

Hyman - Matthews
Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri

Then based on those pairings I could see the lineup being similar to this if Maroon was signed:

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Maroon - Tavares - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen
Johnsson - 4th Line Centre - Brown

The 4th line becomes the shakeup line, so if someone isn't performing, Johnson or Brown gets moved up and the under-performing player moves there.

On the PP with Matthews, Johnsson takes Hyman's spot and Kadri joins that group.  Marleau takes Marners's spot as Marner is going to play off the backend as the 4th forward.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 06, 2018, 11:57:51 AM
Leafs have signed Tyler Ennis to a 1 year 650k deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on July 06, 2018, 05:53:35 PM
Babcock has often said that in his forward lines he likes to have pairings.  So the pairings in the past have been:
....
'
I'm pretty confident saying that Matthews/Nylander is now a thing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on July 06, 2018, 07:59:12 PM
Babcock has often said that in his forward lines he likes to have pairings.  So the pairings in the past have been:
....
'
I'm pretty confident saying that Matthews/Nylander is now a thing.

I'm also confident Tavares/Marner is a thing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 07, 2018, 04:46:33 PM
Through the reported attempted signing of de Haan, I was just thinking that maybe Gardiner is on the block.  Maybe.

If that's the case, I was going through teams trying to figure out who would be a good trading partner, considering the Leafs would likely like a more cost controlled RD to play with Rielly.  Dermott and Zaitsev would round out the 2nd pairing.

So what about this Honka kid in Dallas?  Or back to the old reliable rumour of Trouba?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on July 07, 2018, 06:35:12 PM
Through the reported attempted signing of de Haan, I was just thinking that maybe Gardiner is on the block.  Maybe.

If that's the case, I was going through teams trying to figure out who would be a good trading partner, considering the Leafs would likely like a more cost controlled RD to play with Rielly.  Dermott and Zaitsev would round out the 2nd pairing.

So what about this Honka kid in Dallas?  Or back to the old reliable rumour of Trouba?

Is the idea that they'd trade Gardiner for a cost controlled RD? Or that they'd trade Gardiner and then use those and other assets to get one?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 08, 2018, 07:32:43 AM
Through the reported attempted signing of de Haan, I was just thinking that maybe Gardiner is on the block.  Maybe.

If that's the case, I was going through teams trying to figure out who would be a good trading partner, considering the Leafs would likely like a more cost controlled RD to play with Rielly.  Dermott and Zaitsev would round out the 2nd pairing.

So what about this Honka kid in Dallas?  Or back to the old reliable rumour of Trouba?

Is the idea that they'd trade Gardiner for a cost controlled RD? Or that they'd trade Gardiner and then use those and other assets to get one?

Yes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 09, 2018, 08:06:49 AM
I donít know where to put this but Iím pretty concerned about the rumors of Tampa getting Karlsson.

Related: can we please change the playoff format?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 09, 2018, 09:59:27 AM
I donít know where to put this but Iím pretty concerned about the rumors of Tampa getting Karlsson.

Related: can we please change the playoff format?

At some point, no matter what the playoff format is, the Leafs are going to have to play the best teams, so I don't think changing the format is really going to help at all.  If and when the Leafs play a Boston, or a Tampa, or a Pittsburgh, or a Washington, they need to be the better team to win the series. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 09, 2018, 10:15:48 AM
I don't expect him to be a saviour or anything but a 1-year deal below $1mil for Cody Franson really couldn't hurt anybody at this point.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: RedLeaf on July 09, 2018, 10:31:18 AM
I don't expect him to be a saviour or anything but a 1-year deal below $1mil for Cody Franson really couldn't hurt anybody at this point.

Having watched Franson over and over again in that infamous game 7 against Boston , I would pass on having him return to the roster . He was way too soft for a team that, above all else , needs more toughness and mental fortitude . Heís a Large PASS for me .
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 09, 2018, 11:27:12 AM
I donít know where to put this but Iím pretty concerned about the rumors of Tampa getting Karlsson.

Related: can we please change the playoff format?

At some point, no matter what the playoff format is, the Leafs are going to have to play the best teams, so I don't think changing the format is really going to help at all.  If and when the Leafs play a Boston, or a Tampa, or a Pittsburgh, or a Washington, they need to be the better team to win the series.

Different people will have different feelings about such things but I will personally feel the leafs were a little more successful if, say, they finish 2nd overall and then they lose in the conf finals or finals to the best team in the league than if they lose in the 2nd round.

In other words, how far they go matters to me, not just whether or not they win it all.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 09, 2018, 12:16:48 PM
I donít know where to put this but Iím pretty concerned about the rumors of Tampa getting Karlsson.

Related: can we please change the playoff format?

At some point, no matter what the playoff format is, the Leafs are going to have to play the best teams, so I don't think changing the format is really going to help at all.  If and when the Leafs play a Boston, or a Tampa, or a Pittsburgh, or a Washington, they need to be the better team to win the series.

Different people will have different feelings about such things but I will personally feel the leafs were a little more successful if, say, they finish 2nd overall and then they lose in the conf finals or finals to the best team in the league than if they lose in the 2nd round.

In other words, how far they go matters to me, not just whether or not they win it all.

For me the round numbers have little meaning.  That's just me though.   You play who you play and then you go from there.  There are so many variables that go in to a series and with the amount of parity that exists in the league today, I feel that now more than ever that it is impossible to say that one team is a lock over another in any particular series.  I think you can get favorable match ups sometimes, but even then things are far from absolute. 

Take this year for example, I think the Leafs would have matched up better against the Lightning than the Bruins.  So this year in my mind, they would have had a more favorable series if they could have faced the Lightning instead of the Bruins, but they still would have had to play the Bruins at some point.

Last year, I think the Leafs would have matched up well against the Senators or the Bruins, so it would have been better if they could have landed in to the 2-3 spot.  They didn't and they ended up having to play the Capitals.  In that scenario, I guess you could make the argument that they wouldn't have had to necessarily play the Caps because they would have ended up getting beat out by Pittsburgh.

In my mind though, you are sometimes going to get a favorable matchup in the first round, or maybe you get it in the second round, or if you are really lucky you get it in the third round.  It's just the way the puck bounces sometimes.  So where the Leafs go out in the playoffs doesn't really interest me much, because at the end of the day it meant they got beat out, and at that point they are no different than 30 other teams in the league. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on July 09, 2018, 01:17:18 PM
I donít know where to put this but Iím pretty concerned about the rumors of Tampa getting Karlsson.

Related: can we please change the playoff format?

At some point, no matter what the playoff format is, the Leafs are going to have to play the best teams, so I don't think changing the format is really going to help at all.  If and when the Leafs play a Boston, or a Tampa, or a Pittsburgh, or a Washington, they need to be the better team to win the series.

Different people will have different feelings about such things but I will personally feel the leafs were a little more successful if, say, they finish 2nd overall and then they lose in the conf finals or finals to the best team in the league than if they lose in the 2nd round.

In other words, how far they go matters to me, not just whether or not they win it all.

For me the round numbers have little meaning.  That's just me though.   You play who you play and then you go from there.  There are so many variables that go in to a series and with the amount of parity that exists in the league today, I feel that now more than ever that it is impossible to say that one team is a lock over another in any particular series.  I think you can get favorable match ups sometimes, but even then things are far from absolute. 

Take this year for example, I think the Leafs would have matched up better against the Lightning than the Bruins.  So this year in my mind, they would have had a more favorable series if they could have faced the Lightning instead of the Bruins, but they still would have had to play the Bruins at some point.

Last year, I think the Leafs would have matched up well against the Senators or the Bruins, so it would have been better if they could have landed in to the 2-3 spot.  They didn't and they ended up having to play the Capitals.  In that scenario, I guess you could make the argument that they wouldn't have had to necessarily play the Caps because they would have ended up getting beat out by Pittsburgh.

In my mind though, you are sometimes going to get a favorable matchup in the first round, or maybe you get it in the second round, or if you are really lucky you get it in the third round.  It's just the way the puck bounces sometimes.  So where the Leafs go out in the playoffs doesn't really interest me much, because at the end of the day it meant they got beat out, and at that point they are no different than 30 other teams in the league.

I agree with many of your points.  In the NBA, some teams are significantly better than others and the significantly better team wins a 7-game series 90% of the time (modulo injury factors).  In the NHL, there is so much parity and so much depends upon a small number of random bounces of the puck that the better team only really has 60-40 odds.  Teams overcome those odds all the time.

Anyway, just making the playoffs was immensely satisfying for me 2 years ago.  My expectations are a little higher so I'm hoping for more but I'd be very happy if the leafs made the conference finals next year (I have fond memories of the Gilmour years and they didn't get any farther than that).  I can't think of any single event that would tilt the odds of Toronto making it that far in the wrong direction more than Tampa getting Karlsson (except *maybe* a Matthews injury).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Average Joes on July 09, 2018, 01:33:25 PM
It is basic probability math that the less tough match-ups you face the better are your odds of winning the Cup.  Reformatting who you face in the playoffs would improve the odds of the top teams to advance. At least on average. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 09, 2018, 02:05:33 PM
It is basic probability math that the less tough match-ups you face the better are your odds of winning the Cup.  Reformatting who you face in the playoffs would improve the odds of the top teams to advance. At least on average.

So how does the probability change if the Leafs face the Lightning in the first round versus the second or the third?  If you are going to have to play a tough team, you are going to have to play a tough team. 

You can argue that by facing them in the second round, they may have injuries, but you can't plan for that.   Also the Leafs may get injuries as well.  In order to be the best team in the league, you are going to have to beat the best teams in the league. 

My argument isn't that playing a lower ranked team wouldn't be better.  My argument is that you can't outrun playing good opponents by changing the playoff format.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on July 09, 2018, 02:19:34 PM
So how does the probability change if the Leafs face the Lightning in the first round versus the second or the third?  If you are going to have to play a tough team, you are going to have to play a tough team. 

You can argue that by facing them in the second round, they may have injuries, but you can't plan for that.   Also the Leafs may get injuries as well.  In order to be the best team in the league, you are going to have to beat the best teams in the league. 

My argument isn't that playing a lower ranked team wouldn't be better.  My argument is that you can't outrun playing good opponents by changing the playoff format.

I think the argument is that if you're in a tough division, the likelihood of getting sort of a flukey run to the cup where by luck you manage to miss out on heavyweights from your own conference is lower.

I agree with you that the Leafs should be focused on building a team where they are the heavyweights but I think there's something to be said for maybe putting off the biggest battles until it's absolutely necessary. If a particularly tough series takes more out of a team than an easier one than you'd prefer for your toughest series to be your last one.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Average Joes on July 09, 2018, 02:52:19 PM
So how does the probability change if the Leafs face the Lightning in the first round versus the second or the third?  If you are going to have to play a tough team, you are going to have to play a tough team. 

You can argue that by facing them in the second round, they may have injuries, but you can't plan for that.   Also the Leafs may get injuries as well.  In order to be the best team in the league, you are going to have to beat the best teams in the league. 

My argument isn't that playing a lower ranked team wouldn't be better.  My argument is that you can't outrun playing good opponents by changing the playoff format.

I think the argument is that if you're in a tough division, the likelihood of getting sort of a flukey run to the cup where by luck you manage to miss out on heavyweights from your own conference is lower.

I agree with you that the Leafs should be focused on building a team where they are the heavyweights but I think there's something to be said for maybe putting off the biggest battles until it's absolutely necessary. If a particularly tough series takes more out of a team than an easier one than you'd prefer for your toughest series to be your last one.

Exactly. 

Scenario 1:  Bruins and Lightning.   Scenario 2:  Devils and Lightning. 

Your probability of getting to round 3 is greater with scenario 2.  For argument sake let us say you are 50/50 to beat the Bruins and 50/50 vs the Lighting.  The devils you are 66/34 to win.  In scenario 1 you have a 25% chance to make it to round 3.  In scenario 2 it is 33% because you were less likely to get knocked out vs the Devils.

The above does not even factor in that you are probably playing more games vs the Bruins if you get past them and thus at greater risk of fatigue/injury.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on July 09, 2018, 03:52:33 PM
So how does the probability change if the Leafs face the Lightning in the first round versus the second or the third?  If you are going to have to play a tough team, you are going to have to play a tough team. 

You can argue that by facing them in the second round, they may have injuries, but you can't plan for that.   Also the Leafs may get injuries as well.  In order to be the best team in the league, you are going to have to beat the best teams in the league. 

My argument isn't that playing a lower ranked team wouldn't be better.  My argument is that you can't outrun playing good opponents by changing the playoff format.

I think the argument is that if you're in a tough division, the likelihood of getting sort of a flukey run to the cup where by luck you manage to miss out on heavyweights from your own conference is lower.

I agree with you that the Leafs should be focused on building a team where they are the heavyweights but I think there's something to be said for maybe putting off the biggest battles until it's absolutely necessary. If a particularly tough series takes more out of a team than an easier one than you'd prefer for your toughest series to be your last one.

Exactly. 

Scenario 1:  Bruins and Lightning.   Scenario 2:  Devils and Lightning. 

Your probability of getting to round 3 is greater with scenario 2.  For argument sake let us say you are 50/50 to beat the Bruins and 50/50 vs the Lighting.  The devils you are 66/34 to win.  In scenario 1 you have a 25% chance to make it to round 3.  In scenario 2 it is 33% because you were less likely to get knocked out vs the Devils.

The above does not even factor in that you are probably playing more games vs the Bruins if you get past them and thus at greater risk of fatigue/injury.

I guess I just don't see the percentages coming out like that.  For example, I would have been more like:

Bruins v Leafs:  45% chance Leafs win
Lighting v Leafs:  55% chance Leafs win
Devils v Leafs:  55% chance Leafs win

So in that case, playing Bruins and then the Lightning to me is no different than playing the Devils and then Bruins.  I think more goes in to the probability than just the standings though, because I feel the standings aren't necessarily indicative of your place within your division relative to the other teams in your division because you play different teams throughout the league at different times throughout the year so there is a point variance there.  For me it's more about the type of personnel a team has and how they line up against one another.  So for example, last year, Columbus was a team I did not want the Leafs to play because I felt that their team was one that would match up well against the Leafs and could give them a lot of trouble.  Regardless of where the standings fell, regardless of point totals, Columbus was a team I just didn't want to Leafs to play.

That's why for me personally, regardless of the playoff format, there are always going to be teams that are teams you just don't want to play, in any round.  For example like how the Senators dreaded meeting the Leafs in the playoffs between 1999-2004.  Wouldn't have mattered what round they met in, it was just a team they didn't want to play. 

I get you want to play your weakest opponent first.  I guess where I have a problem with playoff formats and trying to get the favorable match up, if that's the goal, you can't base that off of standings.  The only playoff format where that would be close to possible would be to give the top seeds a chance to pick their opponent, like they have been experimenting in some divisions.  Even there though, you still have to come out on top of your division or conference to get that benefit.  I could totally see a scenario last year where if the Bruins got to pick second, they might have chosen the Leafs over some of those other teams.   
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 09, 2018, 04:09:34 PM
I'm not sure which European league practices this, but the idea that the top seeds get to pick their opponent is kind of cool.  It would add some intrigue to the end of the season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: L K on July 09, 2018, 04:55:49 PM
I'm not sure which European league practices this, but the idea that the top seeds get to pick their opponent is kind of cool.  It would add some intrigue to the end of the season.

That would actually be kind of fun.  Would create a great incentive for the team that an opponent chooses. It would really make things interesting if say in a hypothetical scenario Tampa has an injury to Kucherov in the first round and a team tries to take them on when they are banged up if they know he would miss the series. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on July 09, 2018, 05:28:26 PM
I'm not sure which European league practices this, but the idea that the top seeds get to pick their opponent is kind of cool.  It would add some intrigue to the end of the season.

That would actually be kind of fun.  Would create a great incentive for the team that an opponent chooses. It would really make things interesting if say in a hypothetical scenario Tampa has an injury to Kucherov in the first round and a team tries to take them on when they are banged up if they know he would miss the series.

Yeah, I think it would be fun.  Another great reason to want to finish at the top of your division and add more value to the regular season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on July 09, 2018, 08:30:41 PM
I'm not sure which European league practices this, but the idea that the top seeds get to pick their opponent is kind of cool.  It would add some intrigue to the end of the season.

That would actually be kind of fun.  Would create a great incentive for the team that an opponent chooses. It would really make things interesting if say in a hypothetical scenario Tampa has an injury to Kucherov in the first round and a team tries to take them on when they are banged up if they know he would miss the series.

The only scenario we have to deal with is the Leafs winning he Cup, we all have to start to go in visualization mode, we have the Cup in our hands already.
Know it sounds crazy but what happens if Stamkos and some other Tampa players go down, it can open a lot of doors quickly, nothing is written in stone.  Napoleon said "Imagination rules the world".  Its time to start believing, we deserve a lot more than the last 50 years of suffering.
Babcock said when we get this going, "they are going to come home" and with JT signing are they ever.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: disco on July 09, 2018, 08:35:31 PM
"Once we make it SAFE here (with a home-drafted superstar core), they'll be coming home. Mark my words... they'll be coming home."
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on July 16, 2018, 10:43:13 AM
Trade deadline D possibilities: Kronwall, Boumeester, Del Zotto, Edler, Lovejoy
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on July 18, 2018, 03:31:32 PM
Yawn, let's get this season started already!

The Leafs sign any veteran D on a short term contract yet? Sbisa? Hamhuis? Emelin?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: nutman on July 18, 2018, 06:32:05 PM
Yawn, let's get this season started already!

The Leafs sign any veteran D on a short term contract yet? Sbisa? Hamhuis? Emelin?
[/



Nope, and that's because we will promote from within, and rightly so, as we have some very serious defensive talent almost ready.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on July 19, 2018, 12:03:58 PM
Yawn, let's get this season started already!

The Leafs sign any veteran D on a short term contract yet? Sbisa? Hamhuis? Emelin?
[/



Nope, and that's because we will promote from within, and rightly so, as we have some very serious defensive talent almost ready.
That's news to me. "Serious defensive talent"... no ones there yet and we need it today not tomorrow.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 23, 2018, 09:07:17 AM
I think it's time for a bit of mutual back scratching:

to TOR: Trouba, Griffith(!!!)
to WPG: Gardiner, Nielsen, Greenway, 3rd Rd Pick

Trouba's relationship with the Jets is pretty sour by now, after a dogfight of an arbitration hearing. Gardiner goes to another contender that's closer to home and in need of LD stability. We give up more because Trouba is younger and still RFA.

The throw-ins are debatable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 23, 2018, 09:28:47 AM
I think it's time for a bit of mutual back scratching:

to TOR: Trouba, Griffith(!!!)
to WPG: Gardiner, Nielsen, Greenway, 3rd Rd Pick

Trouba's relationship with the Jets is pretty sour by now, after a dogfight of an arbitration hearing. Gardiner goes to another contender that's closer to home and in need of LD stability. We give up more because Trouba is younger and still RFA.

The throw-ins are debatable.

I'm down. And Winterpeg needs LD if I remember correctly.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 23, 2018, 09:35:30 AM
I think it's time for a bit of mutual back scratching:

to TOR: Trouba, Griffith(!!!)
to WPG: Gardiner, Nielsen, Greenway, 3rd Rd Pick

Trouba's relationship with the Jets is pretty sour by now, after a dogfight of an arbitration hearing. Gardiner goes to another contender that's closer to home and in need of LD stability. We give up more because Trouba is younger and still RFA.

The throw-ins are debatable.

I'm down. And Winterpeg needs LD if I remember correctly.

They should be more inclined to move Tyler Myers, who is of similar age to Gardiner and same cap hit as Trouba. But they certainly wouldn't get as much in return.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bates on July 23, 2018, 09:36:01 AM
If I remember correctly one of the issues for Trouba is that he wants to live in the US as his Father can't enter Canada due to criminal record.
I think it's time for a bit of mutual back scratching:

to TOR: Trouba, Griffith(!!!)
to WPG: Gardiner, Nielsen, Greenway, 3rd Rd Pick

Trouba's relationship with the Jets is pretty sour by now, after a dogfight of an arbitration hearing. Gardiner goes to another contender that's closer to home and in need of LD stability. We give up more because Trouba is younger and still RFA.

The throw-ins are debatable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on July 23, 2018, 10:08:26 AM
If I remember correctly one of the issues for Trouba is that he wants to live in the US as his Father can't enter Canada due to criminal record.

You know what would be fun?

to TOR: Hamilton
to WPG: Gardiner
to CAR: Trouba

plus whatever else we would need to furnish the trade to even out values (more from us probably -- Kapanen/Brown/Johnsson, Top 90 picks, B-prospects), but we'd get a cost controlled 1RD at the end of it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bates on July 23, 2018, 10:15:35 AM
I'm one of the rare folks who isn't a Hamilton fan.  Just always seems to be a guy that can't get to the next level or care that he can't.
If I remember correctly one of the issues for Trouba is that he wants to live in the US as his Father can't enter Canada due to criminal record.

You know what would be fun?

to TOR: Hamilton
to WPG: Gardiner
to CAR: Trouba

plus whatever else we would need to furnish the trade to even out values (more from us probably -- Kapanen/Brown/Johnsson, Top 90 picks, B-prospects), but we'd get a cost controlled 1RD at the end of it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 23, 2018, 10:38:45 AM
If I remember correctly one of the issues for Trouba is that he wants to live in the US as his Father can't enter Canada due to criminal record.
I think it's time for a bit of mutual back scratching:

to TOR: Trouba, Griffith(!!!)
to WPG: Gardiner, Nielsen, Greenway, 3rd Rd Pick

Trouba's relationship with the Jets is pretty sour by now, after a dogfight of an arbitration hearing. Gardiner goes to another contender that's closer to home and in need of LD stability. We give up more because Trouba is younger and still RFA.

The throw-ins are debatable.

You ruined it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on August 04, 2018, 06:40:11 PM
What do we think it would cost to offload Horton?  Any possibility it happens?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on August 04, 2018, 07:28:46 PM
Weird question time.

Bourne speculated about minor league prospects still having a higher reputation than their performance merits.

He said specifically that there was one very clear one on the Marlies that it would be wise to trade while still valuable.

Care to speculate as to who he was talking about?

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on August 04, 2018, 08:40:51 PM
Weird question time.

Bourne speculated about minor league prospects still having a higher reputation than their performance merits.

He said specifically that there was one very clear one on the Marlies that it would be wise to trade while still valuable.

Care to speculate as to who he was talking about?

Nielsen?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bender on August 05, 2018, 02:23:28 PM
Weird question time.

Bourne speculated about minor league prospects still having a higher reputation than their performance merits.

He said specifically that there was one very clear one on the Marlies that it would be wise to trade while still valuable.

Care to speculate as to who he was talking about?

Nielsen?
The Goat
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on August 05, 2018, 03:43:24 PM
Those would have been my guesses too. Although I still think Goat has bottom line defensive specialist potential. His skating took a real knock when he suffered a horrific leg injury just over a year ago.

To that point he had taken his game to another level largely due to improved skating allowing him to dominate with the defensive game and produce subsequent offence.

I think with continued strength and rehab work the Goat can get back to that level.

Given how much the coaching staff raves about him, I doubt itís Freddie.

I thought Nielsenís stock had already fallen, but perhaps he still has some of his Junior shine remaining.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on August 05, 2018, 03:54:52 PM
Goat for Pacioretty, let's get it done.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Crake on August 05, 2018, 03:58:38 PM
Could Bourne be talking about Borgman perhaps? After making the team after training camp last fall other teams might be higher on him then they should be for a guy that is a 5-7 guy at best in the NHL
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 05, 2018, 04:47:53 PM

I don't know much about Bourne and his writing but it strikes me as an odd point to be making about someone that most fans consider to be a fairly minor NHL prospect at best which, to be honest, strikes me as applying to all of the names that have been mentioned so far.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on August 05, 2018, 11:22:54 PM

I don't know much about Bourne and his writing but it strikes me as an odd point to be making about someone that most fans consider to be a fairly minor NHL prospect at best which, to be honest, strikes me as applying to all of the names that have been mentioned so far.

Agreed. The only players I can't think of that may have relative performance-based trade value from the  Marlies Calder run would be Sparks and Johnsson. Anyone else, and I wouldn't even bother really making a point of it in the context of the quote.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: caveman on August 15, 2018, 12:29:31 PM
would anyone do Nylander and Gardiner for Karlsson ? if he agreed to a contract extension....
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on August 15, 2018, 12:38:22 PM
would anyone do Nylander and Gardiner for Karlsson ? if he agreed to a contract extension....

No. Sorry.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: caveman on August 15, 2018, 05:14:15 PM
would anyone do Nylander and Gardiner for Karlsson ? if he agreed to a contract extension....

No. Sorry.

don't be sorry...just a test question....
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Al14 on August 21, 2018, 08:53:47 PM
would anyone do Nylander and Gardiner for Karlsson ? if he agreed to a contract extension....

That's a HELL NO from me.  Karlsson is NOT good enough playing defense.  If we needed a high scoring rover from the back end, then maybe.  However, I don't think I would part with Nylander straight up for him at this point.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: hockeyfan1 on August 22, 2018, 04:27:59 AM
would anyone do Nylander and Gardiner for Karlsson ? if he agreed to a contract extension....

That's a HELL NO from me.  Karlsson is NOT good enough playing defense.  If we needed a high scoring rover from the back end, then maybe.  However, I don't think I would part with Nylander straight up for him at this point.


Neither would I.  Not because Karlsson is no good, heck he's one of the best out there no matter whether he's 100% or not, but because Nylander is one player I do not want to see the Leafs lose at such a young age.

If Karlsson were to anchor the defence, he would probably be playing ever more minutes (or just as many minutes as he had done for Ottawa), which means possibly more injuries as well.  The Leafs will be depending on him aplenty back there and with his shot from the point.  It would be asking too much for a 'veteran' like him to carry the load at a time when he is no longer quite the same as he once was in in younger days.

So, no, acquiring Karlsson would essentially amount to taking a gamble in more ways than one, for better and for worse.

As for Gardiner, well, it's tempting to want to take Karlsson over him anytime, but then, would we be losing Gardiner's speed, etc.?   Again, I'd hesitate even if we could get Karlsson in a trade for Player X + Gardiner.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on August 22, 2018, 08:28:35 AM
My only hesitation would be cap implications.

Ignoring that, I would take Karlsson for Nylander without even batting an eye. Honestly, it's a ridiculous suggestion though. I think people are seriously overvaluing Nylander or seriously undervaluing Karlsson -- he of two Norris trophies. Over the last two seasons, Karlsson has outscored every Maple Leaf except Matthews.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: hockeyfan1 on August 22, 2018, 08:40:58 AM
My only hesitation would be cap implications.

Ignoring that, I would take Karlsson for Nylander without even batting an eye. Honestly, it's a ridiculous suggestion though. I think people are seriously overvaluing Nylander or seriously undervaluing Karlsson -- he of two Norris trophies. Over the last two seasons, Karlsson has outscored every Maple Leaf except Matthews.


So, it's addition by subtraction, or perhaps subtraction by addition?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on August 22, 2018, 08:48:41 AM
My only hesitation would be cap implications.

Ignoring that, I would take Karlsson for Nylander without even batting an eye. Honestly, it's a ridiculous suggestion though. I think people are seriously overvaluing Nylander or seriously undervaluing Karlsson -- he of two Norris trophies. Over the last two seasons, Karlsson has outscored every Maple Leaf except Matthews.

Yea, I mean my first reaction to the proposal was no way, Ottawa would never do that. The cap certainly puts a bit of a wrench into the proposal but I think Toronto would find a way to make Karlsson fit if that's all it would take to acquire him..
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 22, 2018, 08:51:36 AM
Yea, I mean my first reaction to the proposal was no way, Ottawa would never do that. The cap certainly puts a bit of a wrench into the proposal but I think Toronto would find a way to make Karlsson fit if that's all it would take to acquire him..

Nylander would very likely be the best single piece that Ottawa could get for Karlsson. They should be doing cartwheels if the Leafs made that offer. Toronto would never entertain it though unless Karlsson came with a long-term deal included (and likely only at a favourable rate). Ottawa would never entertain it though because Melnyk is an egomaniac who would rather see the sens burn to the ground than do business with the Leafs.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on August 22, 2018, 08:56:23 AM
Yea, I mean my first reaction to the proposal was no way, Ottawa would never do that. The cap certainly puts a bit of a wrench into the proposal but I think Toronto would find a way to make Karlsson fit if that's all it would take to acquire him..

Nylander would very likely be the best single piece that Ottawa could get for Karlsson. They should be doing cartwheels if the Leafs made that offer. Toronto would never entertain it though unless Karlsson came with a long-term deal included (and likely only at a favourable rate). Ottawa would never entertain it though because Melnyk is an egomaniac who would rather see the sens burn to the ground than do business with the Leafs.

Well I just assumed that the deal would be contingent on Karlsson signing a reasonable long-term deal; I certainly wouldn't give up Nylander for only one guaranteed year of Karlsson.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on August 22, 2018, 09:52:15 AM
My only hesitation would be cap implications.

Ignoring that, I would take Karlsson for Nylander without even batting an eye. Honestly, it's a ridiculous suggestion though. I think people are seriously overvaluing Nylander or seriously undervaluing Karlsson -- he of two Norris trophies. Over the last two seasons, Karlsson has outscored every Maple Leaf except Matthews.

For me, it's cap + playstyle + Karlsson on the downswing (and 1.75 ankles) being paid for past performance, costing us a probable superstar player at his ground-floor.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on August 22, 2018, 10:12:36 AM
My only hesitation would be cap implications.

Ignoring that, I would take Karlsson for Nylander without even batting an eye. Honestly, it's a ridiculous suggestion though. I think people are seriously overvaluing Nylander or seriously undervaluing Karlsson -- he of two Norris trophies. Over the last two seasons, Karlsson has outscored every Maple Leaf except Matthews.

For me, it's cap + playstyle + Karlsson on the downswing (and 1.75 ankles) being paid for past performance, costing us a probable superstar player at his ground-floor.

Yeah, I agree with the first part. Truth be told, if Karlsson was an FA, I wouldn't want to do a Tavares-level contract with him, let alone give up Nylander. It's not that he isn't a great player - but I get the feeling there's more risk there on a long term than most. I'd rather hedge my bets on spreading the D-man cap over a number of bodies rather than going heavy on Karlsson.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 22, 2018, 10:37:50 AM
I think everyone here has some clouded judgement on Karlsson.

- He put up 62 points in 71 games last season.  He also had his lowest shooting percentage since his rookie season (4.6%... career 6.8%).
- He had a 51.4% CF on a dismal team (6.4% CFRel)
- If he didn't get PDO'd to death last season, he would have been in the Norris conversation again.  And he should have more than the 1 he's won so far.

Concerns that his previous injuries limited him are overblown (cmon, look at those numbers!)
The only thing that would hold me back on signing him to a FA deal near Tavares money would be cap space, but I'd probably still make it happen and then figure out the rest after.
In terms of trading Nylander for him... I'd do it only with an extension for Karlsson in hand, but I'd still do it.
He's still the best back of his generation and while years 6-8 of his next deal might be a problem due to aging curves, elite guys usually don't decline as fast as the rest. 

I mean, we'd be talking about the next 4 years of running Top 4D/Top 9F:

Dermott - Karlsson
Rielly - Zaitsev/Liljegren

Marleau/Johnsson - Matthews - Kapanen
Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Johnsson/Grundstrom - Kadri - Brown

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on August 22, 2018, 11:23:16 AM
There's a lot of undervaluing of Karlsson happening here...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 22, 2018, 11:30:54 AM
There's a lot of undervaluing of Karlsson happening here...


It is legitimately difficult to assess his value considering he's a year away from UFA though.

I've said this before but I almost guarantee if/when Ottawa trades him the value will be underwhelming. Which is why I said they'd jump for joy if a guy like Nylander was available in trade talks (for the record, I doubt he is).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on August 22, 2018, 11:55:00 AM
You also have to look at Karlsson as a percentage of team offense. If he's on our team, he's not getting those numbers (at least not in that way). On the sens, that's literally their only option now.

In general, I want the defense feeding the forwards for chances. You don't need a Karlsson for that. Put your cap allocation in your goal getters.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 22, 2018, 12:20:31 PM
You also have to look at Karlsson as a percentage of team offense. If he's on our team, he's not getting those numbers (at least not in that way). On the sens, that's literally their only option now.

In general, I want the defense feeding the forwards for chances. You don't need a Karlsson for that. Put your cap allocation in your goal getters.

So you don't want the BEST transition d-man in the NHL on your team?  You know, feeding forwards like this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkELLP5WdS0
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on August 22, 2018, 12:24:06 PM
I've said this before but I almost guarantee if/when Ottawa trades him the value will be underwhelming. Which is why I said they'd jump for joy if a guy like Nylander was available in trade talks (for the record, I doubt he is).

Yeah. When you look at the few instances in recent history where high profile guys were traded without term on their contracts, the return is usually only okay. Very rarely are top flight prospects/young guys involved. It's usually good but not great prospects/players (Kapanen-types, at best).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 22, 2018, 12:26:29 PM
I've said this before but I almost guarantee if/when Ottawa trades him the value will be underwhelming. Which is why I said they'd jump for joy if a guy like Nylander was available in trade talks (for the record, I doubt he is).

Yeah. When you look at the few instances in recent history where high profile guys were traded without term on their contracts, the return is usually only okay. Very rarely are top flight prospects/young guys involved. It's usually good but not great prospects/players (Kapanen-types, at best).

Usually those deals are 4 quarters for a dollar deals.  Where the 3 of the quarters aren't actually quarters because they are prospects/picks and might become pennies.

In a 1 for 1 deal, you aren't getting a (devalued) EK for anything less than a Nylander type.


EDIT:  Anyways.  There is ZERO chance of this happening.  Even if Nylander was offered up for him and its the best option for the Sens, THEY wouldn't do the deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on August 22, 2018, 01:21:15 PM
I think opposing GMs should offer nothing for Karlsson.  Let him walk in July and watch the frenzy begin. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on August 22, 2018, 02:06:23 PM
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on August 22, 2018, 02:10:16 PM
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on August 22, 2018, 02:57:33 PM
Let me pose this:

What would people feel about the Jets sending Nik Ehlers and Tyler Myers for Karlsson?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on August 22, 2018, 03:36:14 PM
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

 8)

I'm not saying Karlsson is bad and broken; I am saying he's not the right fit (especially at the price he's likely to get 7y/11+), and especially not at an asset cost like Nylander, even with the extension.

This is Erik Karlsson's effect at 5v5 (via Hockeyviz)
(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1718/OTT/karlser90)
This is a combination of their system and Ottawa's lacklustre non-Karlsson players.

What I'm thinking we should be looking for instead:
(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/teamShotLocOffWi/1718/MIN/spurgja89)
Not necessarily saying we need to target Jared Spurgeon (is he a product of Ryan Suter?), but he's a cheaper option and maybe gets you 70% of Karlsson's effect without costing 70%.

i.e. hold the fort for Liljegren.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on August 22, 2018, 03:40:06 PM
Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

I love Nylander, but I suppose I just can't believe he'll be one of the best forwards in the game. Will he be a premier scoring winger? Ya, almost certainly. Will he ever be in conversations for a major award? No, very unlikely.

And lets at least be honest about the facts. Nylander's already 22 -- which is obviously still young -- and Karlsson doesn't turn 29 until the playoffs, when Nylander turns 23.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Rob on August 22, 2018, 03:53:15 PM
This may not be a popular opinion, but I don't really see what all the fuss is about Nylander.  I don't think he will cut it as a centre in the NHL.  As a winger he's pretty good, but he's not elite in my books.  I think Karlsson would give the Leafs a better chance of winning a cup in the next 2-5 years than Nylander will, and on that basis alone would do the trade in a second.

Long term, Karlsson will be expensive, and he his play will decline over the term of the contract to the point where the later years we'll be shaking our heads, but have a cup or two to show for it. 

If Karlsson was willing to sign an extension for around $11M, I would even throw in a first rounder. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on August 22, 2018, 04:11:40 PM
This may not be a popular opinion, but I don't really see what all the fuss is about Nylander.  I don't think he will cut it as a centre in the NHL.  As a winger he's pretty good, but he's not elite in my books.  I think Karlsson would give the Leafs a better chance of winning a cup in the next 2-5 years than Nylander will, and on that basis alone would do the trade in a second.

Long term, Karlsson will be expensive, and he his play will decline over the term of the contract to the point where the later years we'll be shaking our heads, but have a cup or two to show for it. 

If Karlsson was willing to sign an extension for around $11M, I would even throw in a first rounder.

I'm right with you. The trade I posed with my friends was Nylander + Gardiner + 2019 1st for Karlsson.

With an 11m extension, the money comes back about neutral with Nylander being replaced by Johnsson or Kapanen in the lineup.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: RedLeaf on August 22, 2018, 04:21:25 PM
This may not be a popular opinion, but I don't really see what all the fuss is about Nylander.  I don't think he will cut it as a centre in the NHL.  As a winger he's pretty good, but he's not elite in my books.  I think Karlsson would give the Leafs a better chance of winning a cup in the next 2-5 years than Nylander will, and on that basis alone would do the trade in a second.

Long term, Karlsson will be expensive, and he his play will decline over the term of the contract to the point where the later years we'll be shaking our heads, but have a cup or two to show for it. 

If Karlsson was willing to sign an extension for around $11M, I would even throw in a first rounder.

I'm 100% on board with this post. The overall goal is winning the Stanley Cup. Having Karlsson on the team (minus Nylander) gets you much closer to that goal. I think its really a moot point, but nevertheless.

Watching some of the game in 6's from last year, it becomes more and more apparent that, even with the addition of Tavares, the Leafs are still on the outside looking in without some major upgrades on the blue line. The best card the club holds to obtain that upgrade is Nylander IMHO.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on August 22, 2018, 08:21:09 PM
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

You think Nylander will be one of the best forwards in the game?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 22, 2018, 10:03:07 PM
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

You think Nylander will be one of the best forwards in the game?

I feel like "could" and "will" are different enough to merit specificity.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on August 22, 2018, 10:53:56 PM
This was a fun read on many levels, especially as you note the author:
https://canucksarmy.com/2014/06/24/canucks-army-draft-prospect-profile-3-william-nylander/
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: hockeyfan1 on August 23, 2018, 05:03:16 AM
Maple Leafs Trade Value Power Rankings:  "the untoichables"...

4. Nylander

Yes, Nylander is untouchable. No, I donít care if you want him packaged for a top-4 D. Why would Dubas ever do that? Do you want to become Edmonton?

In roughly the same sample size, Nylanderís produced offence at a pace nearly identical to that of Marner. Were his name something local-friendly like William Canada, heíd be idolized in the same fashion as this lists 1-3.

Regardless, Nylander is a 22-year-old possession god with centre ice potential whoís managed 135 points in 185 games. Heís very good.

Everyone shut up.

For the rest of the trade value power rankings:
https://editorinleaf.com/2018/07/14/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-value-power-rankings/ (https://editorinleaf.com/2018/07/14/toronto-maple-leafs-trade-value-power-rankings/)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on August 23, 2018, 05:58:28 AM
Ya, I'm going go ahead and say that half of you are nuts. This is Erik Karlsson we're talking about. He's not a 40-year cripple.

When I was responding to the initial thought, I was assuming that an extended contract comes with that, which is why I think it's nuts that anyone would hesitate. I understand there's concern about dealing a potential superstar, but in return, you're getting a bonafide superstar.

I'm going to single out herman here for a second (mostly because I know he can take it): while I understand the concept and preference regarding "feeding the goal-getters", there isn't anyone better in the league than Karlsson and doing just that. His offensive game is so scary it opens up huge opportunities for the goal-getters. Honestly, I think people are overanalyzing this. There are two players on the team I wouldn't trade for Karlsson (with an agreed contract): John Tavares and Auston Matthews..........that's it.

Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

You think Nylander will be one of the best forwards in the game?

I feel like "could" and "will" are different enough to merit specificity.

I figured you'd be the one to point that out.

Let me change that....

You think Nylander COULD be one of the best forwards in the game?

I suppose anyone COULD be one of the best forwards in the game. But he has shown no signs to even being one of the BEST young players in the game.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 23, 2018, 07:28:35 AM
I figured you'd be the one to point that out.

I am known far and wide for thinking arguments should be made in good faith. 


You think Nylander COULD be one of the best forwards in the game?

I suppose anyone COULD be one of the best forwards in the game. But he has shown no signs to even being one of the BEST young players in the game.

I didn't make the case but I think that if you look at his numbers in proper context, especially as a function of ice time and 5v5, I wouldn't agree that he hasn't shown signs of being one of the better young players in the game, especially given that "one of" is a pretty loose term without a set limit.

It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Nylander become a PPG type player who can play any forward position responsibly. The material difference between that and what Zee said seems pretty slight to me.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on August 23, 2018, 09:01:41 AM
Karlsson's going to be 29 this season, you sign him to a huge 8 year deal and he's 37 at the end and probably playing way less effectively than he can now.   At the same time you're willing to trade a 20 or 21 year old player who in 8 years could be one of the best forwards in the game.  Hard no for me.

I love Nylander, but I suppose I just can't believe he'll be one of the best forwards in the game. Will he be a premier scoring winger? Ya, almost certainly. Will he ever be in conversations for a major award? No, very unlikely.

And lets at least be honest about the facts. Nylander's already 22 -- which is obviously still young -- and Karlsson doesn't turn 29 until the playoffs, when Nylander turns 23.

That's fine, but still Nylander at 23 is just entering his prime, Karlsson is leaving his.  Also, earlier in the thread someone mentioned the only 2 players on the Leafs they WOULDN'T include in a trade for Karlsson were Matthews and Tavares.  So that means even Mitch Marner is on the table.  Marner at 21/22, no way I'd deal him for Karlsson at this age. 

I don't think the Leafs NEED an $11M defenseman to try and go on a Cup run, Pittsburgh showed off the model of having a great forward core and being cheap on D and still being able to win.  Leafs could fit Karlsson in this year, but after that it becomes really tough to have him making that much money on the back end, and going into his 30s.

Long story short, we should have drafted Karlsson instead of Luke Schenn (lol)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on August 23, 2018, 09:57:46 AM
Note that the Penguins couldn't repeat their Cup winning ways with Crosby-Malkin until there was additional elite scoring threat from the wings (Kessel), i.e. 3-line depth.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on August 23, 2018, 10:59:35 AM
Note that the Penguins couldn't repeat their Cup winning ways with Crosby-Malkin until there was additional elite scoring threat from the wings (Kessel), i.e. 3-line depth.

Sure, but Kessel was kind of replacing Neal though.

And if we're using the Penguins big-3 as a template to copy, then Tavares - Matthews - Marner would be my preference over Tavares - Matthews - Nylander.

If it's Dubas' intent to keep all 4 of them, then indeed a $11m Karlsson is not in the cards.  If we look at the Capitals roster, other than 68 points out of Carlson, the defense doesn't really wow you...just like the 2016 and 2017 Penguins D corps.

I'm sort of thinking that the Leafs have sort of doubled down on a Letang or a Carlson, in Rielly and Gardiner combined.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 23, 2018, 11:09:29 AM
And if we're using the Penguins big-3 as a template to copy, then Tavares - Matthews - Marner would be my preference over Tavares - Matthews - Nylander.

Yeah, the Leafs already have 2 Kessel's and a 3C that far exceeds what Pittsburgh used in their last Cup winning year. So if anything the Pittsburgh model tells us we have talent to spare up front.

Again, I'm not saying that we should trade Nylander for Karlsson, but that idea that it would hurt our Cup chances in the next few years seems pretty iffy.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on August 23, 2018, 11:26:35 AM

Again, I'm not saying that we should trade Nylander for Karlsson, but that idea that it would hurt our Cup chances in the next few years seems pretty iffy.

Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 23, 2018, 11:45:09 AM
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on August 23, 2018, 11:48:04 AM
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.

Where are you reading that claim? All the counterpoint I'm reading is relative to the back end of the contract.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 23, 2018, 12:12:21 PM
Where are you reading that claim? All the counterpoint I'm reading is relative to the back end of the contract.

Well I think the talk about the Pittsburgh model sure implied it.

But even if I read into that wrong, I still disagree about the other counterpoint you brought up. Maybe this is a bit of a hot take, but as a fan I'm really not too concerned about what the team will look like in 2024. We aren't a rebuilding team anymore, our roster management decisions should be done with the goal of winning as many Cups in the next 4 years as possible. Obviously there's limits to that. You can't trade all of the 2020 draft picks for something. And I wouldn't be looking to trade Nylander for Chara or something like that. But most HHOF-calibre defencemen (and let's make one thing clear, that's what Karlsson is) are still top pairing guys into their late 30s.

So even if Karlsson's play drops off a bit in the back end of the contract I think you can make the case a 36 or whatever year old Karlsson would be just as valuable as a 30 year old Nylander.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 23, 2018, 12:25:10 PM
Really I'm fine with people not wanting to trade Nylander for Karlsson. Especially when you take potential cap considerations into play. My issue is with the arguments that don't seem to take into consideration how good Karlsson really is, and how good he'll continue to be.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on August 23, 2018, 12:36:07 PM
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.

Karlsson would help us win, no doubt; Karlsson is a player I want on our team, but not if it costs Nylander. I believe keeping Nylander would help us win more Cups.

For me it's not just a Nylander vs. Karlsson comparison, as it's more a Nylander + something with that cap space vs Karlsson - additional acquisition cost, as well as my personal build philosophy and playstyle preference. Elements of what Karlsson brings to the table I'd argue we already have in Rielly + Gardiner + Dermott, just not on the right side yet.

I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on August 23, 2018, 01:35:32 PM
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.

Karlsson would help us win, no doubt; Karlsson is a player I want on our team, but not if it costs Nylander. I believe keeping Nylander would help us win more Cups.

For me it's not just a Nylander vs. Karlsson comparison, as it's more a Nylander + something with that cap space vs Karlsson - additional acquisition cost, as well as my personal build philosophy and playstyle preference. Elements of what Karlsson brings to the table I'd argue we already have in Rielly + Gardiner + Dermott, just not on the right side yet.

I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.

I think the idea of having an elite Norris winner pushing your offense for 25-30 minutes a game in the playoffs is a pretty enticing idea...especially since Karlsson can skate with the Leafs' top forwards.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on August 23, 2018, 01:39:28 PM
If we could somehow add Karlsson for this season WITHOUT giving up one of our core forward pieces I'd be all for it of course. 

I think people are selling Nylander short.  He's had back to back 60+ point seasons and I believe he still has more to give.  He could become a true elite level winger and put up a point a game type production, especially in the next few seasons given the center depth the Leafs have.  I know you build through center ice, but I think it's still extremely valuable to have high end wingers with those centers, and Nylander has a lethal shot which forces the opposition to respect him in addition to the center he plays with (Matthews) as both are threats to score.  I'm fully expecting a huge breakout year from Nylander upcoming, and I want the Leafs to reap the benefits of that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 23, 2018, 02:01:10 PM
I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.

But I mean it's not like we're talking about a stay at home defenceman here. I'd argue that Karlsson would have an even bigger impact on the teams "scoring talent" and their ability to "overmatch offence" as Nylander would.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on August 23, 2018, 02:47:44 PM
But I mean it's not like we're talking about a stay at home defenceman here. I'd argue that Karlsson would have an even bigger impact on the teams "scoring talent" and their ability to "overmatch offence" as Nylander would.

Completely agree with that. Especially now that you can stack a scoring/offense threat across a position with less competing minutes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on August 23, 2018, 04:51:21 PM
I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.

But I mean it's not like we're talking about a stay at home defenceman here. I'd argue that Karlsson would have an even bigger impact on the teams "scoring talent" and their ability to "overmatch offence" as Nylander would.

<internet hug>

I mean, seriously, we're talking about Erik freakin' Karlsson here. I love Nylander (he's my favourite of the big three), but I'd send him packing with a 1st rounder in his pocket in an instant if Karlsson on a long-term contract was coming the other way.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 23, 2018, 05:12:11 PM
Note that the Penguins couldn't repeat their Cup winning ways with Crosby-Malkin until there was additional elite scoring threat from the wings (Kessel), i.e. 3-line depth.

Sure, but Kessel was kind of replacing Neal though.

And if we're using the Penguins big-3 as a template to copy, then Tavares - Matthews - Marner would be my preference over Tavares - Matthews - Nylander.

If it's Dubas' intent to keep all 4 of them, then indeed a $11m Karlsson is not in the cards.  If we look at the Capitals roster, other than 68 points out of Carlson, the defense doesn't really wow you...just like the 2016 and 2017 Penguins D corps.

I'm sort of thinking that the Leafs have sort of doubled down on a Letang or a Carlson, in Rielly and Gardiner combined.

I think you are seriously under-rating Orlov-Niskanen.  Their point totals don't wow you, but watch them play, especially Orlov, and you'd be ECSTATIC to have them.  They do all the heavy lifting so that Carlson doesn't have to face the other teams top guys.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Rob on August 23, 2018, 06:50:35 PM
Is someone making the claim that having him on the team will hurt the Leafs' chances in the next few years?

Unless I'm misreading an argument yeah I think there are claims that Nylander would help the team win a Cup more than Karlsson would, even in the near-future.

Karlsson would help us win, no doubt; Karlsson is a player I want on our team, but not if it costs Nylander. I believe keeping Nylander would help us win more Cups.

For me it's not just a Nylander vs. Karlsson comparison, as it's more a Nylander + something with that cap space vs Karlsson - additional acquisition cost, as well as my personal build philosophy and playstyle preference. Elements of what Karlsson brings to the table I'd argue we already have in Rielly + Gardiner + Dermott, just not on the right side yet.

I see championships being won consistently on Scoring Talent + forward depth (overmatching offense) + team defense + good goalie. So I don't see the pressing need to spend super heavily on a defenseman. Open to being convinced otherwise though.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/3oz8xLd9DJq2l2VFtu/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on August 23, 2018, 06:55:48 PM
Not that it matters, but...

?s=21
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on August 23, 2018, 07:33:07 PM
I figured you'd be the one to point that out.

I am known far and wide for thinking arguments should be made in good faith. 


You think Nylander COULD be one of the best forwards in the game?

I suppose anyone COULD be one of the best forwards in the game. But he has shown no signs to even being one of the BEST young players in the game.

I didn't make the case but I think that if you look at his numbers in proper context, especially as a function of ice time and 5v5, I wouldn't agree that he hasn't shown signs of being one of the better young players in the game, especially given that "one of" is a pretty loose term without a set limit.

It certainly wouldn't surprise me to see Nylander become a PPG type player who can play any forward position responsibly. The material difference between that and what Zee said seems pretty slight to me.

Well if we're going to have these discussions in good faith and all, the original point was one of the BEST, not one of the BETTER. But carry on.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on August 23, 2018, 07:43:02 PM
I'm taking names, and when Nylander scores the Cup winning goal next spring I'm coming after some of the people in this thread.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on August 23, 2018, 07:45:36 PM
I'm taking names, and when Nylander scores the Cup winning goal next spring I'm coming after some of the people in this thread.

Heh. One can only hope.




That he scores a Stanley Cup winning goal(not that you come after us).

And it won't be him. It'll be Hainsey or someone of that ilk
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on August 23, 2018, 08:39:18 PM
I'm taking names, and when Nylander scores the Cup winning goal next spring I'm coming after some of the people in this thread.

Heh. One can only hope.




That he scores a Stanley Cup winning goal(not that you come after us).

And it won't be him. It'll be Hainsey or someone of that ilk

Hyman.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 23, 2018, 09:56:07 PM
Well if we're going to have these discussions in good faith and all, the original point was one of the BEST, not one of the BETTER.

Synonyms are a tricky business.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on August 23, 2018, 10:10:45 PM
Synonyms are a tricky business.

Devious.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: hockeyfan1 on August 23, 2018, 11:56:00 PM
I'm taking names, and when Nylander scores the Cup winning goal next spring I'm coming after some of the people in this thread.


 :'( :D
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on August 24, 2018, 07:58:49 AM
I'm taking names, and when Nylander scores the Cup winning goal next spring I'm coming after some of the people in this thread.

Nothing would make me happier than to see that happen. As I stated before, he's my favorite of the big-3.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 24, 2018, 08:01:03 AM
Nothing would make me happier than to see that happen. As I stated before, he's my favorite of the big-3.

Yeah, I own a Nylander jersey. It's the first jersey I bought since back when Darcy Tucker was good.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on August 24, 2018, 08:06:58 AM
Well if we're going to have these discussions in good faith and all, the original point was one of the BEST, not one of the BETTER.

Synonyms are a tricky business.

Not sure I'd consider them synonyms but carry on being "that guy"
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on August 24, 2018, 10:49:15 AM
Note that the Penguins couldn't repeat their Cup winning ways with Crosby-Malkin until there was additional elite scoring threat from the wings (Kessel), i.e. 3-line depth.

Sure, but Kessel was kind of replacing Neal though.

And if we're using the Penguins big-3 as a template to copy, then Tavares - Matthews - Marner would be my preference over Tavares - Matthews - Nylander.

If it's Dubas' intent to keep all 4 of them, then indeed a $11m Karlsson is not in the cards.  If we look at the Capitals roster, other than 68 points out of Carlson, the defense doesn't really wow you...just like the 2016 and 2017 Penguins D corps.

I'm sort of thinking that the Leafs have sort of doubled down on a Letang or a Carlson, in Rielly and Gardiner combined.

I think you are seriously under-rating Orlov-Niskanen.  Their point totals don't wow you, but watch them play, especially Orlov, and you'd be ECSTATIC to have them.  They do all the heavy lifting so that Carlson doesn't have to face the other teams top guys.

Look, I hardly watched the Cup finals, so I really don't know.  I was just going by their statistical data, which I understand doesn't paint the whole picture.

I think my point was that the teams that have won the Presidents Trophy lately have had a stud back there.  The Leafs have a couple of very good defensemen, but they do not have an elite one. 

I don't think Karlsson is in the cards for the Leafs, but trading away somebody like Nylander + for an elite defender makes a fair bit of sense to me.  I, like you, watched a lot of Leaf hockey last season.  Now that they've signed Tavares, I think there's a pretty good argument to be made that their forward group might be the highest octane bunch in the league, at least on paper...I'm still convinced that they would benefit by trading a component out of that bunch, from a position of strength, to benefit from an addition to a current area of relative weakness, the defense group.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 24, 2018, 11:51:03 AM
Look, I hardly watched the Cup finals, so I really don't know.  I was just going by their statistical data, which I understand doesn't paint the whole picture.

I think my point was that the teams that have won the Presidents Trophy lately have had a stud back there.  The Leafs have a couple of very good defensemen, but they do not have an elite one. 

I don't think Karlsson is in the cards for the Leafs, but trading away somebody like Nylander + for an elite defender makes a fair bit of sense to me.  I, like you, watched a lot of Leaf hockey last season.  Now that they've signed Tavares, I think there's a pretty good argument to be made that their forward group might be the highest octane bunch in the league, at least on paper...I'm still convinced that they would benefit by trading a component out of that bunch, from a position of strength, to benefit from an addition to a current area of relative weakness, the defense group.

Oh, I'm not opposed to trading either of Nylander or Marner for an elite RHD.  I think most people are sick of the trade Nylander thing because often people are just saying for a top 4 D. 

Seriously, this is my list of D-men I'd trade either of those guys for without blinking an eye:

Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Here's the list of guys I'd strongly consider as well, but would hesitate and really have to think about:

Doughty
Klinberg
Parayko
Hamilton
Ellis (he was close to being put in the group above because his next contract is great)

Considering the likelyhood that any of those guys becomes available, I'd expect Nylander and Marner to be Leafs for a long time.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on August 24, 2018, 12:55:50 PM
Look, I hardly watched the Cup finals, so I really don't know.  I was just going by their statistical data, which I understand doesn't paint the whole picture.

I think my point was that the teams that have won the Presidents Trophy lately have had a stud back there.  The Leafs have a couple of very good defensemen, but they do not have an elite one. 

I don't think Karlsson is in the cards for the Leafs, but trading away somebody like Nylander + for an elite defender makes a fair bit of sense to me.  I, like you, watched a lot of Leaf hockey last season.  Now that they've signed Tavares, I think there's a pretty good argument to be made that their forward group might be the highest octane bunch in the league, at least on paper...I'm still convinced that they would benefit by trading a component out of that bunch, from a position of strength, to benefit from an addition to a current area of relative weakness, the defense group.

Oh, I'm not opposed to trading either of Nylander or Marner for an elite RHD.  I think most people are sick of the trade Nylander thing because often people are just saying for a top 4 D. 

Seriously, this is my list of D-men I'd trade either of those guys for without blinking an eye:

Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Here's the list of guys I'd strongly consider as well, but would hesitate and really have to think about:

Doughty
Klinberg
Parayko
Hamilton
Ellis (he was close to being put in the group above because his next contract is great)

Considering the likelyhood that any of those guys becomes available, I'd expect Nylander and Marner to be Leafs for a long time.

Given St. Louis' defense situation, it's super unlikely, but I'd add Pietrangelo to that list, even though he's only got 2 years left on his deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on August 24, 2018, 01:34:38 PM
Oh, I'm not opposed to trading either of Nylander or Marner for an elite RHD.  I think most people are sick of the trade Nylander thing because often people are just saying for a top 4 D. 

Seriously, this is my list of D-men I'd trade either of those guys for without blinking an eye:

Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Here's the list of guys I'd strongly consider as well, but would hesitate and really have to think about:

Doughty
Klinberg
Parayko
Hamilton
Ellis (he was close to being put in the group above because his next contract is great)

Considering the likelyhood that any of those guys becomes available, I'd expect Nylander and Marner to be Leafs for a long time.

I'd consider Nylander for a couple options in that second group, but not Marner. I don't think the two are interchangable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 24, 2018, 02:24:43 PM
Oh, I'm not opposed to trading either of Nylander or Marner for an elite RHD.  I think most people are sick of the trade Nylander thing because often people are just saying for a top 4 D. 

Seriously, this is my list of D-men I'd trade either of those guys for without blinking an eye:

Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Here's the list of guys I'd strongly consider as well, but would hesitate and really have to think about:

Doughty
Klinberg
Parayko
Hamilton
Ellis (he was close to being put in the group above because his next contract is great)

Considering the likelyhood that any of those guys becomes available, I'd expect Nylander and Marner to be Leafs for a long time.

I'd consider Nylander for a couple options in that second group, but not Marner. I don't think the two are interchangable.

Well, my take on it is up until last years playoffs they were very much interchangeable.  Marner had a fantastic series while Nylander kinda disappeared so I understand that sentiment.  But I'm not sure that kind of recency bias doesn't cloud alot of peoples judgement about the two players.

I'm also HUGE on Marner- to the point his jersey is the one I'd buy today, so I'd rather trade Nylander but I'll fully admit that is fandom speaking and its not objective.  There is little that separates them overall aside from that small sample.  The tables could easily turn next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 24, 2018, 02:29:45 PM
Look, I hardly watched the Cup finals, so I really don't know.  I was just going by their statistical data, which I understand doesn't paint the whole picture.

I think my point was that the teams that have won the Presidents Trophy lately have had a stud back there.  The Leafs have a couple of very good defensemen, but they do not have an elite one. 

I don't think Karlsson is in the cards for the Leafs, but trading away somebody like Nylander + for an elite defender makes a fair bit of sense to me.  I, like you, watched a lot of Leaf hockey last season.  Now that they've signed Tavares, I think there's a pretty good argument to be made that their forward group might be the highest octane bunch in the league, at least on paper...I'm still convinced that they would benefit by trading a component out of that bunch, from a position of strength, to benefit from an addition to a current area of relative weakness, the defense group.

Oh, I'm not opposed to trading either of Nylander or Marner for an elite RHD.  I think most people are sick of the trade Nylander thing because often people are just saying for a top 4 D. 

Seriously, this is my list of D-men I'd trade either of those guys for without blinking an eye:

Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Here's the list of guys I'd strongly consider as well, but would hesitate and really have to think about:

Doughty
Klinberg
Parayko
Hamilton
Ellis (he was close to being put in the group above because his next contract is great)

Considering the likelyhood that any of those guys becomes available, I'd expect Nylander and Marner to be Leafs for a long time.

Given St. Louis' defense situation, it's super unlikely, but I'd add Pietrangelo to that list, even though he's only got 2 years left on his deal.

I considered him as well and had him on my list at first but he's also going to be 30 when the deal expires and will probably want a pretty big deal, for too long at that point.  But yeah, he'd be on my radar too but with slightly more reservations than the players on the maybe list.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 24, 2018, 02:42:28 PM
Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Kind of unrelated but Subban is a pretty great example of how in the modern NHL a contract can go from "He got how much?!?!?" to being a pretty undeniable bargain in a very short period of time.

Something to keep in mind when we talk about extending people.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 24, 2018, 02:53:53 PM
Erik Karlsson (with an extension)
PK Subban
Seth Jones
Charlie McAvoy

Kind of unrelated but Subban is a pretty great example of how in the modern NHL a contract can go from "He got how much?!?!?" to being a pretty undeniable bargain in a very short period of time.

Something to keep in mind when we talk about extending people.

I think calling it a bargain is a little bit overzealous, but yes, the last 4 years of his deal are definitely very good value.  I think only McDavid could pull a 9M AAV and it be called a bargain.

When it was signed, it was 13.04% of the cap, or approximately 10.4M in today's dollars.  So I think anyone saying "he got how much???" was clueless...

1. It was one of the first big contracts under the new CBA where 12-year deals were no longer allowed so it was the new market reality. 
2. A whole bunch of people seem to have issues with PK that don't reflect how good a player he is.

I'd say it was fair market value at the time and usually fair market value in year 1 means it becomes a good deal as long as the player does not decline in the latter half of the contract.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on August 24, 2018, 03:20:06 PM
I think calling it a bargain is a little bit overzealous, but yes, the last 4 years of his deal are definitely very good value.  I think only McDavid could pull a 9M AAV and it be called a bargain.

There were certainly enough people here calling Tavares at 11 a bargain because, well, it was. On an open market PK is definitely getting more than 9.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 12, 2018, 04:42:35 PM

If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

But they shouldn't trade Nylander, especially not notw.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 12, 2018, 04:48:14 PM
If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

Yeah, that makes the most sense I think. 1) I don't think there is an available defenceman who I would trade for Nylander and 2) it opens up the potential trading partners by a pretty significant margin.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on October 12, 2018, 05:04:30 PM

If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

But they shouldn't trade Nylander, especially not notw.

We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

I'm not advocating trading Nylander, I'm a little undecided here in October...but I see the following options here to deal with the apparent defense issue:

1.  They need a good defenseman, so they'll need to trade a good forward to get one.
2.  They need a good defenseman,  but they can trade other assets besides a top forward like Nylander to get one.
3.  They don't need another good defenseman at the current prices and cap space available, and besides that, there are some good options coming up internally.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 12, 2018, 05:10:49 PM
We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

If you're looking to trade a forward for a defenseman I don't think you're ever really in a position of strength. Especially not mid-season and dealing an unsigned player who wants a deal that might be hard to swallow(or at least one people assume will have to grow into his deal). 

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 12, 2018, 05:27:08 PM
I really think your forward to trade is Kadri. I get that he's on a fantastic deal but that fantastic deal, paired with back 2 back 32 goal seasons makes him a pretty good asset.

Slot Nylander in at the Center position and you now have 3 lines with pretty fantastic hockey players down the middle(not that Kadri isn't a fantastic player).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on October 12, 2018, 05:28:18 PM
We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

If you're looking to trade a forward for a defenseman I don't think you're ever really in a position of strength. Especially not mid-season and dealing an unsigned player who wants a deal that might be hard to swallow(or at least one people assume will have to grow into his deal).

I don't really understand this statement.  Are $8m forwards worth less than $8m defenseman?  I get the unsigned part, but I'm assuming any deal includes the team agreeing to terms with Nylander.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 12, 2018, 05:29:48 PM
We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

If you're looking to trade a forward for a defenseman I don't think you're ever really in a position of strength. Especially not mid-season and dealing an unsigned player who wants a deal that might be hard to swallow(or at least one people assume will have to grow into his deal).

I don't really understand this statement.  Are $8m forwards worth less than $8m defenseman?  I get the unsigned part, but I'm assuming any deal includes the team agreeing to terms with Nylander.

Maybe he's saying the $8m dman is harder to come by than the $8m forward?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on October 12, 2018, 05:33:19 PM

If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

But they shouldn't trade Nylander, especially not notw.

In principle, sure... but the only trades with talents like Nylander (talent, age) that I can think of working out have been one-for-one forward/defenseman swaps. What sort of prospect/pick package could the Leafs get for Nylander that'd be in any way worthwhile?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 12, 2018, 05:38:26 PM
I don't really understand this statement.  Are $8m forwards worth less than $8m defenseman?  I get the unsigned part, but I'm assuming any deal includes the team agreeing to terms with Nylander.

No, I think in general good defensemen are prized highly enough that, assuming salary accurately reflects value, you couldn't get a 8m dollar defenseman for a 8 million dollar forward. We can go back to the Oilers, in a similar position of "strength" in terms of having a lot of talented forwards and what they were able to do with Hall, under a reasonable contract and topping out at a decent second pairing guy like Larsson.

Re: his being unsigned, let's keep in mind that the only reason we're really talking about Nylander as someone to trade is that he's supposedly asking for more than he's worth. So either a team trading for Nylander would just be absorbing the same contract problem the Leafs have or they'd have to think Nylander is worth what he's asking for which, at the very least, you'd have to think would narrow the teams who are interested.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik Bethune on October 12, 2018, 05:40:05 PM
In principle, sure... but the only trades with talents like Nylander (talent, age) that I can think of working out have been one-for-one forward/defenseman swaps. What sort of prospect/pick package could the Leafs get for Nylander that'd be in any way worthwhile?

I'm not sure but if the idea would be to then look to package some of those picks and prospects for a defenseman elsewhere it would effectively still be a one for one swap, you just wouldn't be limited to defensemen who happen to be on teams that also want Nylander.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on October 12, 2018, 07:20:44 PM
If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

Yeah, that makes the most sense I think. 1) I don't think there is an available defenceman who I would trade for Nylander and 2) it opens up the potential trading partners by a pretty significant margin.

Where do they get this other defenseman from?Trading other assets? Or a ufa next season? There just don't see to be any available for a reasonable price any way you slice it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on October 12, 2018, 09:42:50 PM
In principle, sure... but the only trades with talents like Nylander (talent, age) that I can think of working out have been one-for-one forward/defenseman swaps. What sort of prospect/pick package could the Leafs get for Nylander that'd be in any way worthwhile?

I'm not sure but if the idea would be to then look to package some of those picks and prospects for a defenseman elsewhere it would effectively still be a one for one swap, you just wouldn't be limited to defensemen who happen to be on teams that also want Nylander.

I'd think they could get Faulk for Nylander yesterday. Maybe a pick, a good prospect, and depth piece -- roughly what a 'for futures' trade gets you -- could also get Faulk, or something similar (good top-4 guy, ceiling known, a couple/few years left on the contract)... Maybe you net a few extra assets this way and, for whatever reason, the roundabout way is how the upgrade at defense gets done.

I sort of like the idea -- if they must trade Nylander -- of stocking up on stuff that'll keep the team's window open for a good while. Picks, sure. But high-quality prospects -- or just one -- definitely. I'd think that, if Dubas is considering a trade and looking toward the future, Drouin-Sergachev would be the model he'd be looking toward.

Noah Dobson or Ryan Pulock from the Islanders, VAN's Quinn Hughes or Olli Juolevi, VGK's Erik Brannstrom, or COL's Cale Maker would all be the sorts of players I'd put at the center of any deal... Except for maybe Hughes, they'd all need picks and/or other prospects to come with. Dermott replaces Gardiner, Liljegren eventually helps make the right side respectable, and one of these might be able to replace Rielly -- whose contract will be up before the forward core's peak has passed.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on October 12, 2018, 10:08:45 PM
Hopefully thereís a GM out there that overrates Nylander like some Leaf fans.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on October 12, 2018, 10:16:49 PM
Nylander: not over-rated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcsuiN7pIxI
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: leafsjunkie on October 12, 2018, 10:27:30 PM
Nylander: not over-rated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcsuiN7pIxI

*Drools*

C'mon Dubas.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 13, 2018, 11:49:52 AM
I really think your forward to trade is Kadri. I get that he's on a fantastic deal but that fantastic deal, paired with back 2 back 32 goal seasons makes him a pretty good asset.

Slot Nylander in at the Center position and you now have 3 lines with pretty fantastic hockey players down the middle(not that Kadri isn't a fantastic player).

Other than the Leafs centre depth being not great outside of the top 9, I agree the route to solving the cap crunch lies south of the top 4 forwards. Itís a position of strength because of Nylander. Like trading Zaitsev should probably be the new priority once Liljegren/Sandin look likely to make the jump.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 13, 2018, 11:51:40 AM
I really think your forward to trade is Kadri. I get that he's on a fantastic deal but that fantastic deal, paired with back 2 back 32 goal seasons makes him a pretty good asset.

Slot Nylander in at the Center position and you now have 3 lines with pretty fantastic hockey players down the middle(not that Kadri isn't a fantastic player).

Other than the Leafs centre depth being not great outside of the top 9, I agree the route to solving the cap crunch lies south of the top 4 forwards. Itís a position of strength because of Nylander. Like trading Zaitsev should probably be the new priority once Liljegren/Sandin look likely to make the jump.

I think there's some serviceable centres in the minors and probably a few that could be had relatively cheaply to create a little depth.

Add Rosen to the list of defensemen that may be able to replace Zaitsev.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2018, 11:55:15 AM
https://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/is-a-william-nylander-trade-in-the-leafs-future-here-are-8-possible-teams
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/quick-shifts-toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-trade-rfa-canucks/

Two articles today that discuss the possibility of moving Nylander and some of the names that could be of interest to the Leafs. Here are some of the defencemen that are brought up: Hjalmarsson, Demers, Spurgeon, Manson, Tanev, Edler, Larsson, Nurse, Pulock, Skjei, and last but not least (ok actually least) Erik Gudbranson.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 13, 2018, 12:01:03 PM
https://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/is-a-william-nylander-trade-in-the-leafs-future-here-are-8-possible-teams
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/quick-shifts-toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-trade-rfa-canucks/

Two articles today that discuss the possibility of moving Nylander and some of the names that could be of interest to the Leafs. Here are some of the defencemen that are brought up: Hjalmarsson, Demers, Spurgeon, Manson, Tanev, Edler, Larsson, Nurse, Pulock, Skjei, and last but not least (ok actually least) Erik Gudbranson.

Lol
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2018, 12:05:35 PM
https://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/is-a-william-nylander-trade-in-the-leafs-future-here-are-8-possible-teams
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/quick-shifts-toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-trade-rfa-canucks/

Two articles today that discuss the possibility of moving Nylander and some of the names that could be of interest to the Leafs. Here are some of the defencemen that are brought up: Hjalmarsson, Demers, Spurgeon, Manson, Tanev, Edler, Larsson, Nurse, Pulock, Skjei, and last but not least (ok actually least) Erik Gudbranson.

Lol

From the article: "Or could Erik Gudbranson be a starting point?". No Michael, he couldn't.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: louisstamos on October 13, 2018, 12:29:57 PM
https://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/toronto-maple-leafs/is-a-william-nylander-trade-in-the-leafs-future-here-are-8-possible-teams
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/quick-shifts-toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-trade-rfa-canucks/

Two articles today that discuss the possibility of moving Nylander and some of the names that could be of interest to the Leafs. Here are some of the defencemen that are brought up: Hjalmarsson, Demers, Spurgeon, Manson, Tanev, Edler, Larsson, Nurse, Pulock, Skjei, and last but not least (ok actually least) Erik Gudbranson.

I don't think there's a single name on that list that I'd trade Nylander for straight up.  Nurse might be the closest, but I'm still hesitant.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 13, 2018, 12:33:29 PM
I really think your forward to trade is Kadri. I get that he's on a fantastic deal but that fantastic deal, paired with back 2 back 32 goal seasons makes him a pretty good asset.

Slot Nylander in at the Center position and you now have 3 lines with pretty fantastic hockey players down the middle(not that Kadri isn't a fantastic player).

Other than the Leafs centre depth being not great outside of the top 9, I agree the route to solving the cap crunch lies south of the top 4 forwards. Itís a position of strength because of Nylander. Like trading Zaitsev should probably be the new priority once Liljegren/Sandin look likely to make the jump.

I think there's some serviceable centres in the minors and probably a few that could be had relatively cheaply to create a little depth.

Add Rosen to the list of defensemen that may be able to replace Zaitsev.

Other than Brooks, our Marlie centres are loans or career AHLers. If we move Kadri and slot Nylander there, we are one inconvenient injury from Tampa Bay 2016-17. Nylander and Kadri are insurance against that.

Itís not likely we are drafting a Kadri-caliber centre for the next long while. We already saw UFA forwards dropping their asks to be part of this scoring committee so maybe something on the market will make sense, but I generally prefer not to buy players unless itís a needle-mover (John Tavares).

I think Zaitsev brings a unique element to the backend that isnít immediately replaceable today, but I can see a deadline deal for someone like Nick Jensen being a valid substitute when that move is made.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on October 13, 2018, 12:41:23 PM
I don't think there's a single name on that list that I'd trade Nylander for straight up.  Nurse might be the closest, but I'm still hesitant.

Manson would be an easy yes from me, but Anaheim would be stupid to move him.  Defensively sound, and showed an offensive side to his game last year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on October 13, 2018, 12:44:05 PM
The Sportsnet column isn't quite as bad as the Traikos one, but still... not much doing.

Parayko's the only name between them both I'd do straight up.

Dumba, Spurgeon, Manson, Montour, Demers, Nurse, Tanev I could see if other stuff's coming back the other way -- in most cases, it'd have to be a lot (high-end prospect, pick).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2018, 12:50:10 PM
Parayko's the only name between them both I'd do straight up.

In terms of potentially available defencemen, Parayko and Trouba are the only guys I'd do a straight up trade for. But I still don't think it makes sense for Winnipeg or St. Louis. I just don't think either team can really afford to lose those defencemen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on October 13, 2018, 01:19:58 PM
Parayko's the only name between them both I'd do straight up.

In terms of potentially available defencemen, Parayko and Trouba are the only guys I'd do a straight up trade for. But I still don't think it makes sense for Winnipeg or St. Louis. I just don't think either team can really afford to lose those defencemen.

No, I don't think they're very good trade partners -- neither's hurting for forwards, both need young, high-end defensemen. Maybe Parayko and Kyrou or Thomas for Nylander and Liljegren, if the teams, for no good reason that I can see, want to keep their forward/defense talent a net 0 (more or less) and flip ages around.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frycer14 on October 13, 2018, 03:22:39 PM
Am I the only one that thinks they should try to extend Gardiner, like, now? If we're floating Nylander for some of those names, to me, it just shows the value of keeping what we have. Jake's had a rough start, and maybe is having a few confidence issues, particularly going into a contract year.. maybe he'd be happy to be part of this going forward and get back on track - I'd be very comfortable giving him Zaitsev money and term... and moving Zaitsev.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on October 13, 2018, 04:25:52 PM
Am I the only one that thinks they should try to extend Gardiner, like, now? If we're floating Nylander for some of those names, to me, it just shows the value of keeping what we have. Jake's had a rough start, and maybe is having a few confidence issues, particularly going into a contract year.. maybe he'd be happy to be part of this going forward and get back on track - I'd be very comfortable giving him Zaitsev money and term... and moving Zaitsev.

I think they should trade him at the deadline.  :-[
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 14, 2018, 06:58:31 AM
I really think your forward to trade is Kadri. I get that he's on a fantastic deal but that fantastic deal, paired with back 2 back 32 goal seasons makes him a pretty good asset.

Slot Nylander in at the Center position and you now have 3 lines with pretty fantastic hockey players down the middle(not that Kadri isn't a fantastic player).

Other than the Leafs centre depth being not great outside of the top 9, I agree the route to solving the cap crunch lies south of the top 4 forwards. Itís a position of strength because of Nylander. Like trading Zaitsev should probably be the new priority once Liljegren/Sandin look likely to make the jump.

I think there's some serviceable centres in the minors and probably a few that could be had relatively cheaply to create a little depth.

Add Rosen to the list of defensemen that may be able to replace Zaitsev.

Other than Brooks, our Marlie centres are loans or career AHLers. If we move Kadri and slot Nylander there, we are one inconvenient injury from Tampa Bay 2016-17. Nylander and Kadri are insurance against that.

Itís not likely we are drafting a Kadri-caliber centre for the next long while. We already saw UFA forwards dropping their asks to be part of this scoring committee so maybe something on the market will make sense, but I generally prefer not to buy players unless itís a needle-mover (John Tavares).

I think Zaitsev brings a unique element to the backend that isnít immediately replaceable today, but I can see a deadline deal for someone like Nick Jensen being a valid substitute when that move is made.

While I agree that replacing Kadri isn't an easy task, and probably not doable, this team will need to give up some of their secondary strengths to keep the top 4 under contract.

As for Zaitsev, I'm curious as to what that unique element is that isn't immediately replaceable? Not doubting, just wondering.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 14, 2018, 09:43:34 AM

While I agree that replacing Kadri isn't an easy task, and probably not doable, this team will need to give up some of their secondary strengths to keep the top 4 under contract.

As for Zaitsev, I'm curious as to what that unique element is that isn't immediately replaceable? Not doubting, just wondering.

Yeah I agree secondary depth is what should be plumbed for cap room. This is where is might be wise to trade off a Babcock-favourite as the opportunity arises: his valuation is, I think, esteemed by the traditional hockey man, and there could be some additional weight in a trade. If our development group does it right, they can just make new favourites.

Zaitsev diversifies our defence portfolio in that heís a heavy presence. Weíve got a lot of go defenders, we donít really have any stop defenders. Ozhiganov is probably the closest in the system.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 14, 2018, 11:51:24 AM

While I agree that replacing Kadri isn't an easy task, and probably not doable, this team will need to give up some of their secondary strengths to keep the top 4 under contract.

As for Zaitsev, I'm curious as to what that unique element is that isn't immediately replaceable? Not doubting, just wondering.

Yeah I agree secondary depth is what should be plumbed for cap room. This is where is might be wise to trade off a Babcock-favourite as the opportunity arises: his valuation is, I think, esteemed by the traditional hockey man, and there could be some additional weight in a trade. If our development group does it right, they can just make new favourites.

Zaitsev diversifies our defence portfolio in that heís a heavy presence. Weíve got a lot of go defenders, we donít really have any stop defenders. Ozhiganov is probably the closest in the system.

I've never thought of Zaitsev as a "heavy presence" on the blue line but I'll watch with more of an interest now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on October 14, 2018, 12:17:11 PM

While I agree that replacing Kadri isn't an easy task, and probably not doable, this team will need to give up some of their secondary strengths to keep the top 4 under contract.
Yeah I agree secondary depth is what should be plumbed for cap room. This is where is might be wise to trade off a Babcock-favourite as the opportunity arises: his valuation is, I think, esteemed by the traditional hockey man, and there could be some additional weight in a trade. If our development group does it right, they can just make new favourites.

Yeah, when I was fooling around with CapFriendly, the guys who start looking overpaid once the big-four are under contract, after Marleau of course, are Brown and Hyman. Both are highly replaceable with ELC players, provided the development program is what they say it is.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 14, 2018, 01:21:45 PM

While I agree that replacing Kadri isn't an easy task, and probably not doable, this team will need to give up some of their secondary strengths to keep the top 4 under contract.

As for Zaitsev, I'm curious as to what that unique element is that isn't immediately replaceable? Not doubting, just wondering.

Yeah I agree secondary depth is what should be plumbed for cap room. This is where is might be wise to trade off a Babcock-favourite as the opportunity arises: his valuation is, I think, esteemed by the traditional hockey man, and there could be some additional weight in a trade. If our development group does it right, they can just make new favourites.

Zaitsev diversifies our defence portfolio in that heís a heavy presence. Weíve got a lot of go defenders, we donít really have any stop defenders. Ozhiganov is probably the closest in the system.

I've never thought of Zaitsev as a "heavy presence" on the blue line but I'll watch with more of an interest now.

Babcock thinks Zaitsev is basically the Hyman of the backend. Heís relatively fearless with physical engagement to body players off the puck for Gardiner or a forward to scoop up. Of course that is not a particularly high hurdle.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 26, 2018, 12:49:45 PM
https://mapleleafsnation.com/2018/10/25/the-leafs-should-look-to-acquire-jesse-puljujarvi/

An area where the Leafs are not lacking is in the RWer with defensive-liabilities department.
But an area where the Leafs ARE lacking is in the BIG winger department.

Jesse Puljujarvi was scratched by the Oilers last night; they've consistently struggled finding a fit for him, and we all suspect they're just shanking the development completely. How about we reunite McDavid with his Erie running mate, Connor Brown.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on October 26, 2018, 12:55:22 PM
I like calling him Pullmyjarvi. I don't know why exactly, but a chance to say that more often is welcome.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on October 26, 2018, 12:58:52 PM
Jesse Poolparty
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 26, 2018, 01:21:50 PM
No way Edmonton trades him yet. Come on be realistic people. They'll wait and destroy his value for another 2 years or so and then do it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 26, 2018, 01:29:36 PM
No way Edmonton trades him yet. Come on be realistic people. They'll wait and destroy his value for another 2 years or so and then do it.

I want him before they sign him to an overbearingly expensive long term deal though.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on October 26, 2018, 01:46:22 PM
No way Edmonton trades him yet. Come on be realistic people. They'll wait and destroy his value for another 2 years or so and then do it.

Funny thing was that draft year, Poolparty was the slam dunk consensus #3 pick but Columbus passed on him and went with Pierre Luc-Dubois instead.  They seem to have known what they were doing as Dubois had 48 points last season.  He's outperforming Poolparty so far.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on October 26, 2018, 04:46:28 PM
No way Edmonton trades him yet. Come on be realistic people. They'll wait and destroy his value for another 2 years or so and then do it.

Do we have a mediocre defenceman who is nowhere as valuable we can send over for him? Like, I dunno, Zaitsev?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 27, 2018, 07:38:30 AM
No way Edmonton trades him yet. Come on be realistic people. They'll wait and destroy his value for another 2 years or so and then do it.

Do we have a mediocre defenceman who is nowhere as valuable we can send over for him? Like, I dunno, Zaitsev?

Or Gardiner who we're going to lose for nothing because it's highly unlikely we can afford him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on October 27, 2018, 10:44:50 AM
Or Gardiner who we're going to lose for nothing because it's highly unlikely we can afford him.

If the Leafs trade Zaitsev, they could be able to afford Gardiner.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on October 27, 2018, 01:04:48 PM
Or Gardiner who we're going to lose for nothing because it's highly unlikely we can afford him.

If the Leafs trade Zaitsev, they could be able to afford Gardiner.

Quit making sense. It ruins my Saturday
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on October 27, 2018, 04:31:03 PM
But do we really wanna make that right side worse?  I'm no Zaitsev fan, but i think the right side is better with him, than without him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 27, 2018, 05:16:16 PM
And Zaitsev is a better "defense"man then Gardiner. Tough call going forward. I think if they can sign him to under 6 mill he stays, if he wants 7 he's gone.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on October 27, 2018, 06:39:59 PM
And Zaitsev is a better "defense"man then Gardiner. Tough call going forward. I think if they can sign him to under 6 mill he stays, if he wants 7 he's gone.
If they can find a taker for Zaitsev, you can keep Gardiner and hope that next season Liljegren is the right D replacement for Zaitsev.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on October 27, 2018, 09:37:00 PM
And Zaitsev is a better "defense"man then Gardiner. Tough call going forward. I think if they can sign him to under 6 mill he stays, if he wants 7 he's gone.
If they can find a taker for Zaitsev, you can keep Gardiner and hope that next season Liljegren is the right D replacement for Zaitsev.

Let's be realistic, though.  Best case is he slots in on the 3rd pair, not 2nd.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 27, 2018, 10:01:17 PM
And Zaitsev is a better "defense"man then Gardiner. Tough call going forward. I think if they can sign him to under 6 mill he stays, if he wants 7 he's gone.
If they can find a taker for Zaitsev, you can keep Gardiner and hope that next season Liljegren is the right D replacement for Zaitsev.

We can only hope
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on October 27, 2018, 10:23:03 PM
And Zaitsev is a better "defense"man then Gardiner. Tough call going forward. I think if they can sign him to under 6 mill he stays, if he wants 7 he's gone.
If they can find a taker for Zaitsev, you can keep Gardiner and hope that next season Liljegren is the right D replacement for Zaitsev.

Let's be realistic, though.  Best case is he slots in on the 3rd pair, not 2nd.
Zaitsev shouldn't be a 2nd pair dman either so you know
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on October 28, 2018, 09:41:40 PM
But do we really wanna make that right side worse?  I'm no Zaitsev fan, but i think the right side is better with him, than without him.

Keep the more talented blue liner every time, and thatís Gardiner by a mile.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on October 28, 2018, 09:43:48 PM
And Zaitsev is a better "defense"man then Gardiner.

Thatís debatable. Jake may make more big mistakes, but his ability to move the puck adds more defensive value than anything Zaitsev has shown.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Foreign Correspondent on October 29, 2018, 06:06:54 AM
And Zaitsev is a better "defense"man then Gardiner. Tough call going forward. I think if they can sign him to under 6 mill he stays, if he wants 7 he's gone.
If they can find a taker for Zaitsev, you can keep Gardiner and hope that next season Liljegren is the right D replacement for Zaitsev.
I'm pretty sure this now is the eternal game plan. Just the Kessel and Aintsey money coming off the books this year affords a reasonable offer for Jake, room for Liljegren, and maybe Rosťn or another standout at pretty much a wash for the next two years. I think Babber's "you can't train size" philosophy guarantees we see a lot of Ozhiganov and Marincin, which is fine by me so far. All this seems pretty doable, even if Jake's looking for Shattenkirk money. Now, i might be in the camp that believes Gardiner gets a bit too much of the Larry Murphy treatment, and yes i know what happened in April, but where would his replacement come from? He's not the first defenceman to have a terminal case of Bonehead Manouevre Propensity Syndrome, but his hockey IQ is pretty good, and he's never stopped improving. Even if this is peak Jake, whatchya gonna do, let him walk and pick up Justin Faulk at the cost of pick stability? Keeping Jake is a no-brainer, until someone like Doughty decides the Kings are 2000-and-late.

Jake is our bird in hand. 6.5m is fair and doable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 29, 2018, 10:08:10 AM
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Gauthier for Gagner (with Vancouver retaining 50% of his cap).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 30, 2018, 11:42:33 AM

I would absolutely take a flier on one of these two team-stifled, offensively-creative RWs at the lowest of their possible value.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 30, 2018, 12:56:22 PM
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 30, 2018, 01:02:34 PM

It me!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on October 30, 2018, 02:13:50 PM
At some point is it safe to say he's not getting opportunities not because of racial or personality issues, but rather because he's not good enough or hasn't earned them?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 30, 2018, 02:25:44 PM
At some point is it safe to say he's not getting opportunities not because of racial or personality issues, but rather because he's not good enough or hasn't earned them?

How effective can someone be if you suppress his opportunity to play during his prime growth and development stage?

I think I'd like to see him get a good run with some good players before saying he's a bust for certain. It's literally the perfect time for the Islanders to try to add excitement to their team but it's obvious they're going for less tangible things right now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on October 30, 2018, 02:29:58 PM
At some point is it safe to say he's not getting opportunities not because of racial or personality issues, but rather because he's not good enough or hasn't earned them?
Probably but who knows? Maybe he thinks he's hard done by and wants out of there. Apparently the AHL doesn't keep player's ice time.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on October 30, 2018, 03:08:29 PM
He may very well be hard done by (and there are articles that substantiate this and the difficulty for minorities to prosper). I'm not discounting that as contributing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 30, 2018, 04:20:36 PM
Meanwhile...
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Tricky part is these two players play the position we have the most depth, and are on teams that are looking for players where we have the least, so nothing will likely come of this with the Leafs involvement.

But if they give us Puljujarvi for Nielsen-ish, then please make it happen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 30, 2018, 04:48:12 PM
At some point is it safe to say he's not getting opportunities not because of racial or personality issues, but rather because he's not good enough or hasn't earned them?

How effective can someone be if you suppress his opportunity to play during his prime growth and development stage?

I think I'd like to see him get a good run with some good players before saying he's a bust for certain. It's literally the perfect time for the Islanders to try to add excitement to their team but it's obvious they're going for less tangible things right now.


I always liked Ho Sang and thought he'd be a natural fit for the Islanders.  Apparently Trotz & Lou have other ideas.  Ho Sang maybe top six offensively but needs improvement on his defensive side.

I agree in that if a player needs further developing and has already shown promise, then at some point he should be given an opportunity to further it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on October 30, 2018, 05:57:47 PM
Meanwhile...
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Tricky part is these two players play the position we have the most depth, and are on teams that are looking for players where we have the least, so nothing will likely come of this with the Leafs involvement.

But if they give us Puljujarvi for Nielsen-ish, then please make it happen.

Yep, Edmonton is not a good trading partner for the Leafs.

Also, is he starting to smell like Yakupov or Paajarvi?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on October 30, 2018, 06:28:42 PM
Meanwhile...
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Tricky part is these two players play the position we have the most depth, and are on teams that are looking for players where we have the least, so nothing will likely come of this with the Leafs involvement.

But if they give us Puljujarvi for Nielsen-ish, then please make it happen.

Yep, Edmonton is not a good trading partner for the Leafs.

Also, is he starting to smell like Yakupov or Paajarvi?

Note how theyíre