TMLfans.ca

Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Topic started by: Nik Bethune on April 24, 2017, 10:18:22 AM

Title: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 24, 2017, 10:18:22 AM

So now that the season is over and we've all enjoyed the unexpected playoff run and night-in, night-out competitiveness of this young team there's something I want to say. Something I've been sitting on for a while that I didn't want to be a point of contention while we were all having so much fun. Here goes:

I still don't like the Andersen trade.

I know, it seems crazy. Andersen is going to win the MotM standings and had what I would definitely agree was a good, even very good, year. Some people will probably say that his very good year was crucial to this team making the playoffs(I sort of agree) and that making the playoffs is going to be huge for this team's development(I mainly disagree).

But let's consider a few things:

1. Andersen was good, he wasn't great. Among goalies who played 50 games, he finished 10th in save percentage. Among the same group he was 13th in SV% at even strength. He deserves a ton of credit for durability and showed occasional brilliance but he also showed some real areas of weakness(those shootout points will really matter one day) and struggled with consistency(he basically had 3 great months and 3 bad ones)

2. I think we're overvaluing his individual contribution because of the swing from going from getting bad goaltending in one year to getting good goaltending the next. That's a huge shift and will drastically impact a team's fortunes but it doesn't make good great. I don't think Andersen's performance made Matthews or Marner or Nylander exciting players. I don't think it made Kadri have a better season. I think a lot of what we liked about this season would have happened anyway, especially because...

3. You know who else had a good but not great season? Jonathan Bernier. Bernier was better than he showed last year. Perfectly capable of, with a better team in front of him, delivering the kind of goaltending we saw him give the Ducks this year. Bernier's save percentage was .003 behind Bernier for the year but actually a point ahead at even strength. He's a good goalie and he has been for most of his career. The three point difference between Bernier and Andersen this year is identical to the difference between the two of them for their careers.

And after all of the fun of the playoff chase and the playoffs, now we're left with the genuinely difficult question. How do we take what was, to be perfectly blunt, an at times overwhelmed looking defence and turn them into a championship unit. We're already discussing how the free agent market looks bad. The trade market might be worse. The Leafs are probably going to be picking 18th. There really aren't any great avenues.

So while I had a lot of fun this year and Andersen's relative ability was a part of that, I'm still leaning on the side of the Leafs being better off keeping their picks(Sam Steel!) and seeing what Bernier could have given them. While we can debate the value of the experience making the playoffs might or might not give the players, I can say with some confidence that I didn't see anything from Andersen this year that made me think that his availability was something that needed urgent seeing to. I think goalies capable of playing roughly at that level do get moved with some degree of frequency these days.

Making that move once the team had some clearer picture of how to put together their defense still seems like the better decision to me.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 24, 2017, 10:23:41 AM
3. You know who else had a good but not great season? Jonathan Bernier. Bernier was better than he showed last year. Perfectly capable of, with a better team in front of him, delivering the kind of goaltending we saw him give the Ducks this year. Bernier's save percentage was .003 behind Bernier for the year but actually a point ahead at even strength. He's a good goalie and he has been for most of his career. The three point difference between Bernier and Andersen this year is identical to the difference between the two of them for their careers.

And Reimer finished with a save percentage higher than both of them.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 24, 2017, 10:27:29 AM
And Reimer finished with a save percentage higher than both of them.

True. I still don't want any part of that contract though.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 24, 2017, 10:29:26 AM
I agree overall, but Bernier may have had a resurgence in Anaheim that may not have come here. So I don't think it's a given that he has the season he had if he stayed. Assuming we don't make the playoffs with Bernier/without Andersen, we are looking at trading a better pick and an open goal tending potion (not a bad thing) with this year's playoff round. I really liked watching this year so it's a tough call emotionally, but the better long term move was to not get Andersen for sure.

However, Andersen seemed to have trouble adjusting to a new city and the Toronto hype, and it was his first season playing with such a heavy workload. He may be better next year. If he is, that makes the deal a lot easier to like.

I still think the cart was put before the horse, but I don't think management will ever agree. They wanted to make the playoffs this year and addressed a need to get the team there, for long term better or worse. I don't think it's the end of the world that we got Andersen though. It looks to me like he will suffice at least.


Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 24, 2017, 10:33:07 AM
I agree overall, but Bernier may have had a resurgence in Anaheim that may not have come here. So I don't think it's a given that he has the season he had if he stayed.

I think I acknowledge pretty explicitly in the body texy that I don't think that's a given. I will point out though that Bernier's numbers last year are such a departure from his career averages that I think smart money would have been on him bouncing back to some degree wherever he was.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 24, 2017, 10:34:57 AM
And Reimer finished with a save percentage higher than both of them.

True. I still don't want any part of that contract though.

Yeah, it's probably a year or maybe even 2 too long. Especially considering his injury history. But who knows, if the team showed some commitment to him earlier I think they could have probably gotten a deal done on more favourable terms.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 24, 2017, 10:41:25 AM
Yeah, it's probably a year or maybe even 2 too long. Especially considering his injury history. But who knows, if the team showed some commitment to him earlier I think they could have probably gotten a deal done on more favourable terms.

Maybe. I only really focused on Bernier because they had him under contract and effectively paid Anaheim to take him.

Still I think what you're saying underlines the point. Good goaltending is out there.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 24, 2017, 10:45:26 AM
Yeah, it's probably a year or maybe even 2 too long. Especially considering his injury history. But who knows, if the team showed some commitment to him earlier I think they could have probably gotten a deal done on more favourable terms.

Maybe. I only really focused on Bernier because they had him under contract and effectively paid Anaheim to take him.

Still I think what you're saying underlines the point. Good goaltending is out there.

Good but not great is what you're saying, right? They are rolling the dice that Andersen will be great.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: L K on April 24, 2017, 11:24:16 AM
Yeah, it's probably a year or maybe even 2 too long. Especially considering his injury history. But who knows, if the team showed some commitment to him earlier I think they could have probably gotten a deal done on more favourable terms.

Maybe. I only really focused on Bernier because they had him under contract and effectively paid Anaheim to take him.

Still I think what you're saying underlines the point. Good goaltending is out there.

Good but not great is what you're saying, right? They are rolling the dice that Andersen will be great.

Which he wasn't.  Andersen is 27.  In comparison Carey Price is 29.  Jake Allen is 26.    Most goalies who are going to hit that "elite top 5" level of performance will have done so around this age.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 24, 2017, 11:47:33 AM
Yeah, it's probably a year or maybe even 2 too long. Especially considering his injury history. But who knows, if the team showed some commitment to him earlier I think they could have probably gotten a deal done on more favourable terms.

Maybe. I only really focused on Bernier because they had him under contract and effectively paid Anaheim to take him.

Still I think what you're saying underlines the point. Good goaltending is out there.

Good but not great is what you're saying, right? They are rolling the dice that Andersen will be great.

Which he wasn't.  Andersen is 27.  In comparison Carey Price is 29.  Jake Allen is 26.    Most goalies who are going to hit that "elite top 5" level of performance will have done so around this age.

He wasn't great. And I'm not hot on arguing that he will be great, but I think there are examples of older guys getting great, maybe only briefly though. Tim Thomas comes to mind.

I'm less interested in can he be great and more can he be good enough. I hope so.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: herman on April 24, 2017, 12:14:59 PM
I think there was some intangible value in Bernier getting a change of scenery, and Andersen getting out from behind Gibson. I don't know if Bernier would've had a similar season here as he did behind Anaheim's superior defense.

My initial take post-trade was initially both "why so expensive?" and "he'll at the minimum be league average, and will have a chance to outplay his contract, while the Leafs groom an internal option", so I was in the 'love the player, hate the trade' camp.

After one season, I don't see much reason to change that position.

Ideally, as the Leafs up front get more consistent with scoring and playing their structure, Andersen's penchant for soft goals will become less of a factor. We were on the wrong side of a lot of one goal games this year, and generally that is not sustained year over year.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: iwas11in67 on April 24, 2017, 12:47:21 PM
Hey Nik, would you trade Andersen and Marner for Price?
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: L K on April 24, 2017, 01:33:23 PM
Yeah, it's probably a year or maybe even 2 too long. Especially considering his injury history. But who knows, if the team showed some commitment to him earlier I think they could have probably gotten a deal done on more favourable terms.

Maybe. I only really focused on Bernier because they had him under contract and effectively paid Anaheim to take him.

Still I think what you're saying underlines the point. Good goaltending is out there.

Good but not great is what you're saying, right? They are rolling the dice that Andersen will be great.

Which he wasn't.  Andersen is 27.  In comparison Carey Price is 29.  Jake Allen is 26.    Most goalies who are going to hit that "elite top 5" level of performance will have done so around this age.

He wasn't great. And I'm not hot on arguing that he will be great, but I think there are examples of older guys getting great, maybe only briefly though. Tim Thomas comes to mind.

I'm less interested in can he be great and more can he be good enough. I hope so.

I think one important distinction about Tim Thomas is that he wasn't really given an opportunity to play high level hockey so I'm not sure how applicable a guy like Tim Thomas was.  I'm not sure that there are many examples of good starting goaltenders suddenly become arguably the best in the league  when they have been around as a starter in the NHL.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Omallley on April 24, 2017, 02:02:31 PM
Making that move once the team had some clearer picture of how to put together their defense still seems like the better decision to me.

This, I wholeheartedly agree with.

I do think there's value in a young team playing playoff hockey (especially in being competitive with the leagues best team), and I think that, as the blueline is shored-up, Andersen will see his numbers improve - but I can't help but wonder if doing things in reverse - getting the blueline that you want/need, then building out the goaltending from there would have resulted in spending less assets overall?
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: herman on April 24, 2017, 02:12:18 PM
Making that move once the team had some clearer picture of how to put together their defense still seems like the better decision to me.

This, I wholeheartedly agree with.

I do think there's value in a young team playing playoff hockey (especially in being competitive with the leagues best team), and I think that, as the blueline is shored-up, Andersen will see his numbers improve - but I can't help but wonder if doing things in reverse - getting the blueline that you want/need, then building out the goaltending from there would have resulted in spending less assets overall?

My guess is that the team wanted a safety net that the young defense could grow under without fear of every. single. mistake. ending up in the back of their net, like it seemed to with Bernier and the first two weeks of Andersen. Hence the jettisoning of Enroth too.

Andersen did bail them out on many an occasion. It could be argued that Bernier would have as well, but his confidence was shot and Babcock had none in him anyway.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Frank E on April 24, 2017, 02:28:33 PM
I think a goaltending change was inevitable, but I'm not sure they needed to go as far as the Andersen trade/contract.

The problem is that they're kind of on a path now, and I doubt that going backwards, in terms of the team's record, is an option.

They probably needed another solid bottom 5 finish this past year to draft a final piece of 2 of the core.  I doubt they find that guy at 18th, and he doesn't seem to be anywhere in the system right now.

So I guess the Andersen trade doesn't help them get that piece or 2, but it might have helped them get into the playoffs this year...I know which I'd have preferred.   
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Bonsixx on April 24, 2017, 03:05:25 PM
I was just sick of watching Reimer and Bernier, and was a fan of Andersen's work in Anaheim, so I liked the trade then and still like it now. Not a very scientific method to base my approval on, I know, but hey.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 24, 2017, 03:39:27 PM
I thought Freddie was great this series, a few he'd love to have back, but he definitely held strong when called upon the majority of the time.

I wonder what impact the style of play the Leafs play has to be factored in, they seem to play an exceptionally high-risk form of hockey that generates a lot of opportunities in attack, but when it breaks down it often does so spectacularly so.

Just from memory, Andersen seemed to be able to bail them out of those breakdowns a lot more than any goalie we've had recently.

Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 24, 2017, 05:09:04 PM
Making that move once the team had some clearer picture of how to put together their defense still seems like the better decision to me.

This, I wholeheartedly agree with.

I do think there's value in a young team playing playoff hockey (especially in being competitive with the leagues best team), and I think that, as the blueline is shored-up, Andersen will see his numbers improve - but I can't help but wonder if doing things in reverse - getting the blueline that you want/need, then building out the goaltending from there would have resulted in spending less assets overall?

I don't get this reasoning at all.  Solid goaltenders are hard to find and Andersen has proven to be that.  When one's available, you take him.  I had doubts about the trade when it went down, but none now.  Unlike Bernier/Reimer, I can actually picture the Leafs winning a Cup someday with Andersen in net.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 24, 2017, 05:58:35 PM
Making that move once the team had some clearer picture of how to put together their defense still seems like the better decision to me.

This, I wholeheartedly agree with.

I do think there's value in a young team playing playoff hockey (especially in being competitive with the leagues best team), and I think that, as the blueline is shored-up, Andersen will see his numbers improve - but I can't help but wonder if doing things in reverse - getting the blueline that you want/need, then building out the goaltending from there would have resulted in spending less assets overall?

I don't get this reasoning at all.  Solid goaltenders are hard to find and Andersen has proven to be that.  When one's available, you take him.  I had doubts about the trade when it went down, but none now.  Unlike Bernier/Reimer, I can actually picture the Leafs winning a Cup someday with Andersen in net.
The fact that Andersen played in 66 games and was still really good come playoff time really raised his worth to me.  He took a big step forward this season in becoming a starting goalie, and hopefully he starts well in October with no injuries. It's a hard grind for goalies , and he's shown he's capable of handling the workload.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 24, 2017, 07:15:12 PM
You don't want to subject the kids to a losing environment and you don't want them punished every time they make a mistake. Having Bernie as the number one was just that. He was brutal last year. That's why we needed a goalie Andersen and when one of his caliber comes up, you grab him. Subjecting all of these kids to losing isn't an option. Without Freddie, we don't make the playoffs and this series would have been done quick. Great move when they did it and now looks even better
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 24, 2017, 08:32:03 PM
My guess is that the team wanted a safety net that the young defense could grow under without fear of every. single. mistake. ending up in the back of their net, like it seemed to with Bernier and the first two weeks of Andersen. Hence the jettisoning of Enroth too.

I think you're letting narrative drive fact here. I didn't like the way Bernier played last year but I also didn't like the way Kadri played. Rebounding to some semblance of their career averages in save and shooting percentage was, I think, a pretty safe bet regardless of the intangibles you want to ascribe to their seasons.

Bernier didn't let in a goal with every single mistake. He'd played well with similarly crappy defenses in the past. You know I love you deeply Herman but this seems like a textbook case of a "Just the facts, Ma'am" sort of person throwing them out the second they contradict the story he wants to believe in.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: herman on April 24, 2017, 08:47:12 PM
a) *swoon
b) I did say it was my guess at their motive, based on their comments and moves, not necessarily that it was something I agreed with. This is also not to say that I can't be swayed by a great story though!

My preference would've been to run the string out on Bernier to see if his percentages did bounce back, then we trade him at the deadline for the additional benefit of a higher draft pick, more picks, and more information about our goaltender pipeline. Gear up for a heavy playoff drive next year with the freed up cap space.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 24, 2017, 08:57:59 PM
Bernier didn't let in a goal with every single mistake. He'd played well with similarly crappy defenses in the past. You know I love you deeply Herman but this seems like a textbook case of a "Just the facts, Ma'am" sort of person throwing them out the second they contradict the story he wants to believe in.
I think you're letting narrative drive fact here. I didn't like the way Bernier played last year but I also didn't like the way Kadri played. Rebounding to some semblance of their career averages in save and shooting percentage was, I think, a pretty safe bet regardless of the intangibles you want to ascribe to their seasons.

I think it's likely Bernier would've bounced back too, but I think we've got a pretty decent sense of Babcock's weird roster preferences. He like's his goalies 6'6" every game or whatever.

From an asset management perspective, I'd have much preferred to do what herman suggests above. But if we agree that Bernier likely would've bounced back this season, we can rule this out:

They probably needed another solid bottom 5 finish this past year to draft a final piece of [or?] 2 of the core.  I doubt they find that guy at 18th, and he doesn't seem to be anywhere in the system right now.   

Happily, I think the last quarter of the season and the playoffs suggest that our defense is, at least at the top of the depth chart, in better shape than we'd thought.

The core's in very good shape, and a lot of what's missing will come through internal improvements (Nylander taking over at center giving us 3 play-controlling lines, Marner developing such that he doesn't disappear in the playoffs, etc.). What makes the Andersen move frustrating is that we'll have less cost-controlled depth to move in as we move out non-core players.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: gunnar36 on April 24, 2017, 09:14:43 PM
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 24, 2017, 09:39:20 PM
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Andy on April 25, 2017, 07:59:33 AM
Good (and maybe on the cusp of very good) but definitely not great is exactly how I'd classify Andersen.

Though I must admit, the huge amount of praise lavished upon him by the announcers/media for average-good saves is quite impressive.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: bustaheims on April 25, 2017, 09:04:56 AM
They probably needed another solid bottom 5 finish this past year to draft a final piece of 2 of the core.  I doubt they find that guy at 18th, and he doesn't seem to be anywhere in the system right now.

I wonder if, maybe, they took a look at the draft class this year and determined the guy they need just wasn't there, and that they didn't want two more seasons at the bottom of the league, and being in a situation where they have to wait until after the 17/18 season to start plugging other holes in the lineup. As the year went on, it started to become more clear that the kind of defenceman they need to step into the lineup in the next couple seasons wasn't likely to be available in this draft class - or, at least, there's no obvious choice for that.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 09:15:39 AM
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

You can't compare Andersen on the Leafs this season against Bernier on the Ducks this season.  In Bernier's 39 games played, he faced an average of 25 shots/game whereas in the 66 games that Andersen played he faced 31 shots/game.  That extra 6 shots a game over an additional 27 games that Andersen played over Bernier adds up on the wear and tear of a goalie.  Could Bernier have survived that type of workload?  We'll never know.   Last season, when Bernier faced 29 shots/game while playing on the Leafs, he posted a .908 save%.  We can look at goalie stats until we're blue in the face, but perhaps Bernier is one of those guys that can't last 60+ games in a season while facing 30+ shots a night.  Maybe it's a combination of workload + expectation and it's a mental thing with Bernier?  Maybe he's not cut out to be a #1 goalie because of what's between his ears?  It's all speculation on our part, but based on the numbers, I think Andersen has proven he can handle a harder workload than Bernier can.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 09:29:26 AM
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

You can't compare Andersen on the Leafs this season against Bernier on the Ducks this season. *clip*

Honestly, man, it's like you're not even reading what you're responding to. Take another look at my second paragraph.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 09:48:36 AM
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

You can't compare Andersen on the Leafs this season against Bernier on the Ducks this season. *clip*

Honestly, man, it's like you're not even reading what you're responding to. Take another look at my second paragraph.

I'm responding to the general narrative that the Andersen trade wasn't needed by the Leafs.  In your original post you pointed out that Bernier was capable of providing good goaltending with a better team in front of him and you pointed out he had a good season this year.  What I'm saying is there's a difference between a guy that can take the reigns and become a #1 goalie and can't who can't.  I think Andersen has done enough this season in transitioning from a backup / "1a" in Anaheim to a true #1 in Toronto. Sure he had his struggles too, but he performed well for long stretches, and performed well in the playoffs.  It remains to be seen if he can become an upper-echelon #1 goalie, but right now he's trending in the right direction.

Bernier on the other hand also had a good season, but the expectations on him weren't the same as what Andersen had in Toronto.  Bernier knew he'd be sitting more often than playing, and in the games he played he'd often get weaker opponents on the schedule, your Arizona's and NJ's of the world.  I realize that Bernier had a stretch where he had to play a bunch of consecutive game when Gibson was unavailable, but it was for a short stint, and he wasn't expected to become the #1 goalie for the team.

So all in all I think the Andersen trade was worth it.  I think the Leafs have a goalie that can handle the pressure of playing as a #1, and also his body can handle the workload that comes with being a #1 goalie.  I don't believe that previous Leafs goalies like Bernier or Reimer had this ability, and the fact that both are now backups in the league undesrcores that. 

You can argue that a short playoff run wasn't beneficial to the Leafs development, but I think winning is always better than losing, and the fact that the team got a small taste of it this year will benefit them going forward in my opinion.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 10:01:50 AM
I'm responding to the general narrative that the Andersen trade wasn't needed by the Leafs.  In your original post you pointed out that Bernier was capable of providing good goaltending with a better team in front of him and you pointed out he had a good season this year.... 

No. You are misunderstanding me despite the fact that I've explicitly and repeatedly said that my point about Bernier is not limited to his play this year but rather that Bernier's play this year is indicative of the fact that he's a significantly better goalie than he was last year which is evidenced not simply by his year in Anaheim but his ENTIRE CAREER excepting last year.

We saw Bernier as a #1 or, #1a if we want to be split hairs, on worse Leafs teams that gave up more shots. Both years he faced roughly 1800 shots. This year Andersen faced 2052. Again, this is not a night and day difference in durability. The idea that we can't possibly imagine how Bernier would respond to being expected to play most nights only really works if we have goldfish-like memories.

To make it as simple as I possibly can my argument  re: Bernier is that he's capable of providing good goaltending as a #1 BECAUSE I SAW HIM DO IT AS A MAPLE LEAF.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 10:25:16 AM
I'm responding to the general narrative that the Andersen trade wasn't needed by the Leafs.  In your original post you pointed out that Bernier was capable of providing good goaltending with a better team in front of him and you pointed out he had a good season this year.... 

No. You are misunderstanding me despite the fact that I've explicitly and repeatedly said that my point about Bernier is not limited to his play this year but rather that Bernier's play this year is indicative of the fact that he's a significantly better goalie than he was last year which is evidenced not simply by his year in Anaheim but his ENTIRE CAREER excepting last year.

We saw Bernier as a #1 or, #1a if we want to be split hairs, on worse Leafs teams that gave up more shots. Both years he faced roughly 1800 shots. This year Andersen faced 2052. Again, this is not a night and day difference in durability. The idea that we can't possibly imagine how Bernier would respond to being expected to play most nights only really works if we have goldfish-like memories.

To make it as simple as I possibly can my argument  re: Bernier is that he's capable of providing good goaltending as a #1 BECAUSE I SAW HIM DO IT AS A MAPLE LEAF.

He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload. 
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 10:41:58 AM
He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload.

I don't have to argue how bad the teams are, it's plain fact. But to pretend like putting up a .912 SV% is nothing and the .918 Andersen did this year is a massive gap that renders one of them capable of playing the position and the other one mentally or physically incapable of it holds absolutely no water.

Additionally, there's no evidence or reason to believe that the save percentage declining like that is a distinguishable pattern as opposed to just random chance. Bernier is capable of playing at the levels we saw him play at, most of which were pretty good. Saying he's incapable of repeating that based on one bad year is exactly as solid as someone saying after the end of last season that Nazem Kadri was incapable of scoring 20 goals because of three years of declining goal totals.

All of which is a fairly minor point. You are perfectly free to continue to try and tell me that Bernier isn't capable of something I saw him doing for two seasons but Bernier's ability to provide competent goaltending is a pretty small part of the argument.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Dappleganger on April 25, 2017, 10:48:26 AM
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Save percentage is a good indicator of goalie performance but it isn't the only factor that determines a goalie's ability.
 
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 10:56:48 AM
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 11:18:50 AM
He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload.

I don't have to argue how bad the teams are, it's plain fact. But to pretend like putting up a .912 SV% is nothing and the .918 Andersen did this year is a massive gap that renders one of them capable of playing the position and the other one mentally or physically incapable of it holds absolutely no water.

Additionally, there's no evidence or reason to believe that the save percentage declining like that is a distinguishable pattern as opposed to just random chance. Bernier is capable of playing at the levels we saw him play at, most of which were pretty good. Saying he's incapable of repeating that based on one bad year is exactly as solid as someone saying after the end of last season that Nazem Kadri was incapable of scoring 20 goals because of three years of declining goal totals.

All of which is a fairly minor point. You are perfectly free to continue to try and tell me that Bernier isn't capable of something I saw him doing for two seasons but Bernier's ability to provide competent goaltending is a pretty small part of the argument.
I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Dappleganger on April 25, 2017, 11:22:20 AM
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.
 
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Dappleganger on April 25, 2017, 11:24:03 AM
He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload.

I don't have to argue how bad the teams are, it's plain fact. But to pretend like putting up a .912 SV% is nothing and the .918 Andersen did this year is a massive gap that renders one of them capable of playing the position and the other one mentally or physically incapable of it holds absolutely no water.

Additionally, there's no evidence or reason to believe that the save percentage declining like that is a distinguishable pattern as opposed to just random chance. Bernier is capable of playing at the levels we saw him play at, most of which were pretty good. Saying he's incapable of repeating that based on one bad year is exactly as solid as someone saying after the end of last season that Nazem Kadri was incapable of scoring 20 goals because of three years of declining goal totals.

All of which is a fairly minor point. You are perfectly free to continue to try and tell me that Bernier isn't capable of something I saw him doing for two seasons but Bernier's ability to provide competent goaltending is a pretty small part of the argument.
I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

Maybe Nik needs his eyes checked.  :-\
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 11:27:40 AM
I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

I don't think league average divides between competency and incompetency or good and bad. Especially not with such small margins.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Andy on April 25, 2017, 11:32:38 AM
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.

Yea those 5 games where Andersen put up a .947 SV% really make sample size irrelevant..
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 11:33:24 AM
I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

I don't think league average divides between competency and incompetency or good and bad. Especially not with such small margins.
At the very least you want a starting goalie who is at or better than the league average. For two years Bernier wasn't. Whatever factors led to that I have no idea, blame it on Nelson Mandela if you have to, but Bernier wasn't cutting it in the last 2 seasons. The fact that he bounced back this year is good for him, but he still played 40% fewer games than Andersen this season and faced fewer shots in those games played.  I think the Leafs are in good shape going forward with Andersen in net.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 11:34:44 AM
Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.

Jake Guentzel has a higher career PPG in the playoffs than Jonathan Toews.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Dappleganger on April 25, 2017, 11:36:56 AM
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.

Yea those 5 games where Andersen put up a .947 SV% really make sample size irrelevant..

Andersen has 34 career playoff games and Price has 60.

Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Andy on April 25, 2017, 11:38:31 AM
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.

Yea those 5 games where Andersen put up a .947 SV% really make sample size irrelevant..

Andersen has 34 career playoff games and Price has 60.

No, no, there is one year of playoffs where Andersen played a total of 5 games for a .947 SV%. That skews his numbers a whole lot. Nevermind though, Nik's retort was way better.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 11:40:46 AM
At the very least you want a starting goalie who is at or better than the league average.

That depends on what your aims are. Personally, I tend to think that getting not very good goaltending last year from Bernier contributed quite a bit to the team getting Auston Matthews. I think Auston Matthews is a good player and adding players of his quality is more important to the future of the team than adding .006 to the #1 goalie's SV%
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: herman on April 25, 2017, 11:41:50 AM
(https://media.giphy.com/media/pz84A7uQqrfeo/giphy.gif)
STATS FIGHT
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 12:18:40 PM
At the very least you want a starting goalie who is at or better than the league average.

That depends on what your aims are. Personally, I tend to think that getting not very good goaltending last year from Bernier contributed quite a bit to the team getting Auston Matthews. I think Auston Matthews is a good player and adding players of his quality is more important to the future of the team than adding .006 to the #1 goalie's SV%

Sure they could have rolled the dice, kept their draft pick and gone with Bernier, and possibly missed the playoffs again. The Leafs made the playoffs this season by 1 point.  Any lesser goaltending, even a difference of .003 that separated Andersen and Bernier, could have meant the Leafs just missed out on the playoffs.  So instead of the Leafs drafting 17th or 18th, they most likely would have been drafting 16th-10th spot (unless by fluke they won the lottery to get a top 3 pick).  I'm not sure what, if any difference you'll get in a player taken 10th vs. 18th.  You would still have the additional draft picks you gave up in the deal for Andersen, but they'd still be years away from impacting the team. 

This is the first year in Andersen's tenure with the Leafs and they've already made the playoffs, in a season where most expected they wouldn't have a chance at it.   Going on from here, the Leafs have to improve their roster, but they'll now be an expectation that this team can qualify for the playoffs, as they already shown they can.  Having a goalie in place that has gotten you there once gives you some confidence that repeating that success is possible.   I for one hope the Leafs can and will make the playoffs in each of the next 4 seasons that Andersen is under contract.   They'll have to address roster needs with smart trades, signings and development of players already in the system, and hopefully hit on some draft picks in the next few years.   You may not think the value of getting your team into the playoffs is worth much, but I for one think that when you start with a measure of success, it sets a standard for the group of young players to meet or exceed in future years.  This core has had a taste, and they'll want to improve upon that.  It sure beats what has gone on in Toronto for the better part of a decade.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 12:28:13 PM
Sure they could have rolled the dice, kept their draft pick and gone with Bernier, and possibly missed the playoffs again. The Leafs made the playoffs this season by 1 point.  Any lesser goaltending, even a difference of .003 that separated Andersen and Bernier, could have meant the Leafs just missed out on the playoffs.  So instead of the Leafs drafting 17th or 18th, they most likely would have been drafting 16th-10th spot (unless by fluke they won the lottery to get a top 3 pick).  I'm not sure what, if any difference you'll get in a player taken 10th vs. 18th.  You would still have the additional draft picks you gave up in the deal for Andersen, but they'd still be years away from impacting the team. 

There's a lot to say here. Higher draft picks being more likely to yield top tier players being a given, the erroneous assumption that late 1st and 2nd round picks are necessarily years away from being in the NHL(Sebastian Aho and David Pastrnak say what up), the ability to use those picks as assets to address more important areas...

But chiefly I'd focus on the fact that not making the Andersen trade isn't the only difference between what this management team did and what I'd do.

Because, honestly, I'm not going to get into an argument about which platitudes you believe in about winning attitudes and competitiveness.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 12:46:55 PM
I don't get this reasoning at all.  Solid goaltenders are hard to find and Andersen has proven to be that. 

Solid goaltenders aren't really that hard to find. They're hard to develop but the limited nature of #1 positions available vs. competent goaltenders in the world squeezes out available, competent guys on a near yearly basis. Look at St. Louis, Buffalo, Edmonton, Calgary, Tampa, San Jose...all have either had to deal with the reality of only being able to keep one legit goaltender around or have pounced on that fact to add a quality goalie.

With the expansion draft coming up and options on the free agent market, there's an excellent chance the Leafs, if they'd been patient could have added a solid goaltender this off-season at very little to no asset cost.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 12:52:29 PM
Sure they could have rolled the dice, kept their draft pick and gone with Bernier, and possibly missed the playoffs again. The Leafs made the playoffs this season by 1 point.  Any lesser goaltending, even a difference of .003 that separated Andersen and Bernier, could have meant the Leafs just missed out on the playoffs.  So instead of the Leafs drafting 17th or 18th, they most likely would have been drafting 16th-10th spot (unless by fluke they won the lottery to get a top 3 pick).  I'm not sure what, if any difference you'll get in a player taken 10th vs. 18th.  You would still have the additional draft picks you gave up in the deal for Andersen, but they'd still be years away from impacting the team. 

There's a lot to say here. Higher draft picks being more likely to yield top tier players being a given, the erroneous assumption that late 1st and 2nd round picks are necessarily years away from being in the NHL(Sebastian Aho and David Pastrnak say what up), the ability to use those picks as assets to address more important areas...

Giving examples of late draft picks that play earlier rather than later doesn't change the probability that lower picks usually take more time to develop.   Also, given what is being said about this year's draft class, there's little to no difference between players picked in the teens,  which is where the Leafs are currently picking, and probably would have still picked had they followed the no-Andersen route and just missed out on the playoffs.

I have more than a bit of faith in this management group after seeing how far the Leafs have gone in just 3 years of Shanahan calling the shots.  Whether you or I agree with each and every move made is insiginificant in the grand scheme of things.  Either this team will get on a trajectory and become a Cup contender or it won't.  From what I've seen so far, I believe they're on trajectory #1.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 01:05:09 PM
Giving examples of late draft picks that play earlier rather than later doesn't change the probability that lower picks usually take more time to develop.

Oh that's just such a duck. You didn't say "lower first round picks usually take time to develop". You said it definitively "they'd still be years away". Then when I say "not necessarily" all of a sudden you're about probabilities.

C'mon, man. At least be internally consistent.

  Also, given what is being said about this year's draft class, there's little to no difference between players picked in the teens,  which is where the Leafs are currently picking, and probably would have still picked had they followed the no-Andersen route and just missed out on the playoffs.

Outside of identifying elite top tier talent, the scouts who try to gauge the draft as a whole aren't any more scientific or better than the ones who make individual picks. You don't know the quality of players in this draft. Having a higher pick is better year to year regardless. 

Also, you're still pitching the bogus dichotomy that the only two places the Leafs could have finished this year is either just inside the playoffs or just outside of them. 

I have more than a bit of faith in this management group after seeing how far the Leafs have gone in just 3 years of Shanahan calling the shots. 

The difference is I think they're making bad long term moves for short term success to appease the sorts of fans who have such low expectations that they fall all over themselves with "faith" because the team squeaked into the playoffs. So the realization of that short term success doesn't mean much to me.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 02:11:20 PM
Giving examples of late draft picks that play earlier rather than later doesn't change the probability that lower picks usually take more time to develop.

Oh that's just such a duck. You didn't say "lower first round picks usually take time to develop". You said it definitively "they'd still be years away". Then when I say "not necessarily" all of a sudden you're about probabilities.

C'mon, man. At least be internally consistent.

  Also, given what is being said about this year's draft class, there's little to no difference between players picked in the teens,  which is where the Leafs are currently picking, and probably would have still picked had they followed the no-Andersen route and just missed out on the playoffs.

Outside of identifying elite top tier talent, the scouts who try to gauge the draft as a whole aren't any more scientific or better than the ones who make individual picks. You don't know the quality of players in this draft. Having a higher pick is better year to year regardless. 

Also, you're still pitching the bogus dichotomy that the only two places the Leafs could have finished this year is either just inside the playoffs or just outside of them. 

I have more than a bit of faith in this management group after seeing how far the Leafs have gone in just 3 years of Shanahan calling the shots. 

The difference is I think they're making bad long term moves for short term success to appease the sorts of fans who have such low expectations that they fall all over themselves with "faith" because the team squeaked into the playoffs. So the realization of that short term success doesn't mean much to me.

I'm not trying to duck anything good sir.  When I say "lower first round picks usually take time to develop" it means the same thing to me as "they'd still be years away".  What is development time if not years?


It's apparent we have vastly different opinions of the Leafs management move here.  I don't think acquiring Andersen was a "bad long term move" made for only short-term success.  The goal was and is to become a contending team and they're on the road to that end.  Management wasn't try to appease fans by getting Andersen and getting into the playoffs, they wanted to get competent goaltending that they felt could be here for the next 5 seasons while the young core develops into their prime years.   So far they're on the mark.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 02:18:40 PM
I'm not trying to duck anything good sir.  When I say "lower first round picks usually take time to develop" it means the same thing to me as "they'd still be years away".  What is development time if not years?

One's definitive, the other allows for the almost yearly, sometimes multiple exceptions.

It strikes me as incongruous to have so much faith in the sheer radiant brilliance of the team's front office but think they'd be as hapless as anyone else making draft picks.

It's apparent we have vastly different opinions of the Leafs management move here.  I don't think acquiring Andersen was a "bad long term move" made for only short-term success.

Sure, but only because you're someone who seems to believe the Underpants Gnomes business model is a really solid plan for improving the defense.

Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 02:32:07 PM
I'm not trying to duck anything good sir.  When I say "lower first round picks usually take time to develop" it means the same thing to me as "they'd still be years away".  What is development time if not years?

One's definitive, the other allows for the almost yearly, sometimes multiple exceptions.

It strikes me as incongruous to have so much faith in the sheer radiant brilliance of the team's front office but think they'd be as hapless as anyone else making draft picks.

It's apparent we have vastly different opinions of the Leafs management move here.  I don't think acquiring Andersen was a "bad long term move" made for only short-term success.

Sure, but only because you're someone who seems to believe the Underpants Gnomes business model is a really solid plan for improving the defense.

I have no idea why you're being snippy, and painting me as some delusional fan, but "Underpants Gnomes business model" doesn't sound very flattering.  I've been a Leafs fan all my life, and the current faith I have in management stems from the fact they have a plan to draft and develop and seem to be sticking to that plan, something I've never witnessed before in any Leafs era dating back 40 years of watching.  I trust management in so far as the results are there for the team, and so far, with Shanahan on board this team is on an upward trend.   They eliminated a bunch of older guys on the roster, drafted some high end talent, and inserted 8-9 rookies into the lineup this past season with great results.  It's not my job to scout and analyze every single player or draft pick that comes and goes onto the roster.  All I can do is watch the team, and see if progress is being made, and so far, this season represents the biggest progress the franchise has made in at least 15 years. 

I don't know what the management's plan is for improving the defense, but I'm sure they have a bunch of smart guys on the payroll to figure that out.   Maybe it comes from within, maybe it's a trade or a free agent signing.  Whatever it is, I can't sit here and criticize them for trading a couple of draft picks to get a solid goaltender after the season the team just had.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 02:40:21 PM
Whatever it is, I can't sit here and criticize them for trading a couple of draft picks to get a solid goaltender after the season the team just had.

Oh, see, I can. To me there's no inherent problem in testing everything they do against what I think is best practices. I can enjoy the goals Willy Nylander scores and still think Management is capable of bad decisions.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Zee on April 25, 2017, 02:43:40 PM
Whatever it is, I can't sit here and criticize them for trading a couple of draft picks to get a solid goaltender after the season the team just had.

Oh, see, I can. To me there's no inherent problem in testing everything they do against what I think is best practices. I can enjoy the goals Willy Nylander scores and still think Management is capable of bad decisions.

So short of Andersen winning a Cup here in Toronto in the next 4 years there's no way you'll ever admit they made a good move in acquiring him?
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 25, 2017, 02:51:17 PM
So short of Andersen winning a Cup here in Toronto in the next 4 years there's no way you'll ever admit they made a good move in acquiring him?

Well, "admit" makes it sound like I'm denying a fact. But I don't think it is one.

For me to agree that it was a good decision then the team would probably have to have a considerable amount of success with Andersen(which doesn't necessarily mean a cup but definitely involves them at least turning into a very serious contender) or for Andersen to turn into the type of elite goalie that isn't on the market fairly frequently.

Although even then you're raising the question of whether or not winning the lottery makes buying lottery tickets a good investment in retrospect.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 25, 2017, 04:01:40 PM
There are many paths to winning a Cup. If you do win one, it's not because every move you made was the perfect move.

I agree that it wasn't the ideal move, even in retrospect, but that doesn't mean I think it was up there with Courtnall for Kordic.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 25, 2017, 10:21:33 PM
With the expansion draft coming up and options on the free agent market, there's an excellent chance the Leafs, if they'd been patient could have added a solid goaltender this off-season at very little to no asset cost.
And the same can be done with players so that would make those picks given up for Andy a non factor seeing they can easily be replaced with actual NHL players, not prospects.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 26, 2017, 02:22:48 AM
It's apparent we have vastly different opinions of the Leafs management move here.  I don't think acquiring Andersen was a "bad long term move" made for only short-term success.
Sure, but only because you're someone who seems to believe the Underpants Gnomes business model is a really solid plan for improving the defense.

So... your plan for drafting not just higher than we will (18?) but actually high (top 10? 5?) is to hold onto Bernier.

2,617 SF x 9.55% shooting = 250 GF
2,673 SA x Bernier’s career avg. .915 SV% = 227 GA
Differential = +23

or maybe he doesn’t bounce all the way back from his .908 and only gets to .910… that’s 250 GA - 240 GA = +10.

Run with Sparks as a backup and the team save percentage down to .905? 250 GF - 253 GA = -3.

Whichever way you want to go, those differentials don't get you into the bottom 10, definitely not the bottom 5. This year, they put them just in or just out.

The Leafs iced the best group of rookie in, like, 25 years, and saw a number of guys who underperformed last season -- most notably Kadri, Gardiner -- take steps. Swapping Andersen for Bernier wouldn't get them in range of the sort of defenseman you want.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: hockeyfan1 on April 26, 2017, 02:59:01 AM
I do not understand the love affair a select few have regarding Jonathan Bernier.

First of all, we all know that Freddy Andersen (pre-trade), and to a certain extent Bernier (post-trade) both went through a crisis period in their careers that would result in improvements career-wise and maturity-wise both on and off the ice.

As it was pretty obvious to anyone, the Leafs management practically salivated in wanting Andersen and probably could hardly wait to trade a then slumping and puzzling Bernier.  For Bernier, a change of pace and scenery seems to have served in very good stead, meanwhile, for Andersen, it offered him a new challenge in backing up a team that was unlike his previous employer particularly in the defensive aspect of it's game.

One should get off their high horse and quit ruminating or babbling about the team's goaltending which is fine at least for the foreseeable future.  If goaltending is a topic, it should be more in the arena of what is the team's goaltending pool/depth in terms of future potentials,etc. 

For now, the Leafs have more pressing concerns and needs, the least of which is Andersen.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: herman on April 26, 2017, 06:19:05 AM
Keeping Bernier for asset management purposes would've also meant, philosophically, keeping Laich, Greening, Michalek on the roster, and spinning them and Bozak/JvR off at the deadline.

That's a boatload less goal potential and definitely a higher pick + more picks. In a league where the accumulation and retention of cost-efficient talent is king, I'd want to take advantage of soft expectations to acquire more building blocks at lower cost.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: hockeyfan1 on April 26, 2017, 07:20:27 AM
Found this on Bernier (from March 2017).  Pretty well attests the improvements made with Anaheim after being traded from Toronto):

Quote
Sudarshan Maharaj, the Ducks’ goalie coach, knew Bernier from scouting him as a junior and working with him when both were part of Hockey Canada. Once the Ducks acquired him from Toronto last July, Maharaj went to Bernier’s home outside Montreal.

The two got to reviewing and working on the things that made Bernier successful, notably his footwork to improve his lateral game and allow him to be more patient in the crease. Just as important was his mental outlook after a rough 2015-16 with the Maple Leafs, where he spent time in the minors.

“Sometimes the fact that goalies are people gets lost,” Maharaj said. “And I’m a firm believer that – and I say it all the time – I don’t coach goalies. I coach people. When you go through a situation like he was in in Toronto, where there was some difficult times and there’s criticism, that wears on you and it beats on you.

“In order for a goalie or any athlete to have success, that core confidence has to remain intact. When that gets battered, it’s something that you have to continually reinforce.

Once the Leafs got Frederik Andersen from the Ducks to anchor their rebuilding effort, Bernier knew his days with them were numbered. But there was no desire to leave, even when it was painfully clear he couldn’t be the savior for defensively challenged Toronto squads.

Ducks defenseman Korbinian Holzer, a teammate of Bernier’s with the Leafs in 2014-15, equated the pressure of playing in hockey-mad Toronto to being in a “fish bowl” and that “if you can handle that, you can pretty much handle anything.” In his mind, Bernier did, even during his struggles.

“At the time when he was there, our team there wasn’t one of the best teams we had,” Holzer said. “We were always struggling defensively, it feels like. He was getting blamed for a lot of stuff. You’re the goalie and everybody looks at you to be the last kind of guy who has to stop the puck. And if you don’t do that, they’re all over you there."

Maharaj is happy to see this pupil reestablish himself on the NHL scene.

“I hope people understand that there was always a very good goalie there,” he said. “And I don’t want to use the word resurrection but I believe and I hope that what he has done has certainly drawn the attention of the people that are paying attention. Because he deserves it.”

A potential unrestricted free agent this summer, Bernier faces an uncertain future in a typically fickle goalie market. The number of openings among the 30 teams fluctuates from year to year. And there is now a 31st – the Vegas Golden Knights – to factor in.

It is a given the Ducks will choose Gibson as the one goalie they can protect from the expansion draft, which will leave Bernier available for the Golden Knights to pluck away if they so choose.


http://www.dailynews.com/sports/20170321/ducks-goalie-jonathan-bernier-enjoying-his-career-reboot
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: bustaheims on April 26, 2017, 09:17:09 AM
With the expansion draft coming up and options on the free agent market, there's an excellent chance the Leafs, if they'd been patient could have added a solid goaltender this off-season at very little to no asset cost.

This is a thought that gets put out there a lot, but, once you look into it, it kind of falls apart. In terms of the trade market, it's really Fleury/Murray, or Grubauer. Everyone else who may be available because of the expansion draft are either older, short-term stop gap types, prospects with little to no NHL experience, or backup goalies - basically unappealing options to fill the Leafs' immediate and long-term goaltending needs. If the Pens are indeed forced into moving Murray, he won't come cheap, as there will be a number of teams willing to give up at least what the Leafs gave up for Andersen. Grubauer might be cheap, but his ability to be a starter is very much in question.

The UFA market is largely the same. There's Bishop, who's coming off a bad, injury plagued season; Miller, who's already on the wrong side of 35, and a bunch of backup types.

Honestly, of the options available for what the Leafs were looking for, in terms of acquisition cost and cap costs, Andersen is probably the most appealing option.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 26, 2017, 05:44:17 PM
So... your plan for drafting not just higher than we will (18?) but actually high (top 10? 5?) is to hold onto Bernier.

No. I said it previously but the difference between what I'd have liked to have seen and the decisions they made is not limited to the one goaltending decision.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 26, 2017, 05:51:52 PM
With the expansion draft coming up and options on the free agent market, there's an excellent chance the Leafs, if they'd been patient could have added a solid goaltender this off-season at very little to no asset cost.

This is a thought that gets put out there a lot, but, once you look into it, it kind of falls apart. In terms of the trade market, it's really Fleury/Murray, or Grubauer. Everyone else who may be available because of the expansion draft are either older, short-term stop gap types, prospects with little to no NHL experience, or backup goalies - basically unappealing options to fill the Leafs' immediate and long-term goaltending needs. If the Pens are indeed forced into moving Murray, he won't come cheap, as there will be a number of teams willing to give up at least what the Leafs gave up for Andersen. Grubauer might be cheap, but his ability to be a starter is very much in question.

The UFA market is largely the same. There's Bishop, who's coming off a bad, injury plagued season; Miller, who's already on the wrong side of 35, and a bunch of backup types.

Honestly, of the options available for what the Leafs were looking for, in terms of acquisition cost and cap costs, Andersen is probably the most appealing option.

Two things. One your post kind of reads like "If you ignore all of the possibilities, there aren't very many possibilities" which, you know.

Two, I think an older stop gap solution would have been fine if that's all that's available. So long as the goal is just to be somewhat competitive while you look for a long term solution. I said "solid", not superstar.

A lot of people in response to this have focused on Bernier but equally as important is my first point Andersen not really looking like the kind of guy who is so good that you have to put things on hold to snatch him up. I think the idea, for instance, that our "long term" needs are any more settled going into next year with Andersen than they would be with Bishop or Fleury is hard to justify at best. 
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 26, 2017, 06:36:46 PM
So... your plan for drafting not just higher than we will (18?) but actually high (top 10? 5?) is to hold onto Bernier.

No. I said it previously but the difference between what I'd have liked to have seen and the decisions they made is not limited to the one goaltending decision.

Sorry, missed that. What else?


Keeping Bernier for asset management purposes would've also meant, philosophically, keeping Laich, Greening, Michalek on the roster, and spinning them and Bozak/JvR off at the deadline.

That's a boatload less goal potential and definitely a higher pick + more picks. In a league where the accumulation and retention of cost-efficient talent is king, I'd want to take advantage of soft expectations to acquire more building blocks at lower cost.

Yeah, I was a bit surprised they moved on from Laich and Greening so quickly and didn't give Michalek a longer look... But I dunno, put them in, we're still at:

Komarov - Kadri - Michalek
JvR - Bozak - Marner
Greening - Matthews - Nylander
Martin - Laich - Soshnikov

Unless you send Marner back to junior, Nylander to Marlies, and Matthews to Switzerland... that team's not much worse than what they went with this year. I'd say they've got about the same goal potential (could Michalek and Greening manage ~15 goals each? Probably)

But, if that team is worse and playoffs are out of sight well before the deadline (or even if they aren't and the second/third rounders and prospects hold more appeal than the playoffs), we can unload everyone* and get it to:

Leivo - Kadri - Brown
Hyman - Matthews - Marner
Leipsic - Nylander - Kapanen
Martin - Gauthier - Soshnikov

Now, that's pretty bad... but bad enough? The 07-08 Hawks made several in-season trades and had terrible goaltending, but they ended up drafting out of the top 10. Maybe the Lightning had it figured out when they got Hedman after garbage goaltending and hiring Barry Melrose?

Put another way: there are consequences to being so bad that you draft (and draft pretty well) in the top 10 six times in a decade. One of them is that you have too many good players to keep doing it until you get everything you want.



* Not that we were able to last year, mind you. But this year... why not?
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 26, 2017, 06:42:03 PM
Sorry, missed that. What else?

Between you and Herman you've essentially fleshed out the broad strokes of it. Complete the tear down, more or less. Deal Bozak, deal Komarov, deal JVR once he'd re-established value.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Frank E on April 26, 2017, 06:56:03 PM
At the start of the season, most of us here were in the 80'ish point range in terms of predictions, right?  Only that idiot WIGWAL was even close, and he's crazy.

I have to think that management was probably thinking a bottom 10 finish too.   

The problem with this season is that the kids performed far above expectations...and really almost everyone did, really, to one extent or another.  And as has been pointed out, Andersen on the season as a whole didn't really play a lot better than Bernier was likely to.

Given that, maybe this whole debate is a little moo, other than the fact that they gave up draft picks. 

If we're going to blame people for screwing up the draft position, then I have to think that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander...also Kadri and Bozak, and Connor Brown, probably late season Polak, Gardiner for sure, that Boyle trade, and calling up Kapanen really screwed it too.  Komarov was far too good of a veteran, and lovable...but anyways...Zaitsev!!!...and Martin didn't really blow any games for them...I think he might have tried, and Babcock recognized this by ensuring he was never scratched (good try Babcock). Back to Kadri, I mean really,  32 goals Kadri?  At least JVR didn't get to his career high of 30 goals...he got to 29...but that fking Bozak set a career high in points.

At least they were trying to worsen things by picking up Smith, but that idiot goes and gets injured, then plays himself off the team all together.

So maybe the Andersen deal is just a red herring.  I'm not happy about the deal, and as much fun as it was to watch, I think the team has more than a few too many holes to fill without a strong draft position this off-season (and we've become accustomed to high draft picks around here.) 

My thing is that I really wanted them to suck another season, and I'm not so sure that at the onset they didn't try to, but the players really screwed my plan up with their mostly very solid team play this past season...and Andersen, most of the time, didn't help my cause either...but still, it was fun to watch.

Although, now they've got a big problem going into next season.

Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 26, 2017, 07:04:43 PM
If we're going to blame people for screwing up the draft position, then I have to think that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander...also Kadri and Bozak, and Connor Brown, probably late season Polak, Gardiner for sure, that Boyle trade, and calling up Kapanen really screwed it too.

Just to step in a second here, and this is also sort of my response to Grieves trying to figure out what the goal differential would be after any change, but I don't think you can separate the results guys like Marner, Nylander and Matthews got without also looking at the conditions they did it in. Keeping Bozak and JVR allowed effectively allowed for the three line structure of the team which I think most of us agreed was really important for the team's offensive output as opponents couldn't key in on one or two offensive lines.

Remove that, make it so that they have a more traditional checking line and two scoring lines and while I think all of our super-rookies still have good years I don't think they're all setting records.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 26, 2017, 07:15:02 PM

[snip]

So maybe the Andersen deal is just a red herring.  I'm not happy about the deal, and as much fun as it was to watch, I think the team has more than a few too many holes to fill without a strong draft position this off-season (and we've become accustomed to high draft picks around here.)

My thing is that I really wanted them to suck another season, and I'm not so sure that at the onset they didn't try to, but the players really screwed my plan up with their mostly very solid team play this past season...and Andersen, most of the time, didn't help my cause either...but still, it was fun to watch.

Although, now they've got a big problem going into next season.

Indeed we have. At some point I looked at draft positions over the last 15 years or so. Toronto was near the top of the league in terms of how many high picks it's had. You can point to repeat 1OAs or 1-2 picks and say we're still missing out on the truly elite talent, but there aren't that many teams that've done (or stumbled into) that and they aren't often accompanied by so many 4-10 picks (and, arguably, we got Nylander a lot lower than he should've gone and Marner would've been challenging for #1 in most years).

We've got some truly top end talent and a core of really good players. I guess you can assemble lines and a devise system that'll overcome all that talent, but that seems perverse. Maybe they should've given Babcock the year off and let Barry Melrose and associate coach Pierre Mcguire run things for a season.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 26, 2017, 07:33:42 PM
Indeed we have. At some point I looked at draft positions over the last 15 years or so. Toronto was near the top of the league in terms of how many high picks it's had.

I'm not sure how true/meaninful this is. I just went back and looked at a handful of teams dating back to 2002 and while their are some outliers where, say, Detroit has no top 10 picks and Atlanta/Winnipeg have had 10, Toronto is pretty firmly in the middle with 6 with most teams having 4 or so. The Leafs aren't near the bottom or the top. To the extent that they're removed from the median, it'll be by a pick or so.

I mean, as simple as we can get, there've been 150 top 10 picks over the last 15 drafts. That's five per team as a blind average, the Leafs had 6. Those 6 came at #5, #7, #5, #8, #4 and #1 which means their average selection in the top 10 was exactly 5.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 26, 2017, 08:03:30 PM
That idiot WIGWAL might know a guy who has a link to the Marlies game should anyone want a PM.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 26, 2017, 08:26:38 PM
Indeed we have. At some point I looked at draft positions over the last 15 years or so. Toronto was near the top of the league in terms of how many high picks it's had.

I'm not sure how true/meaninful this is. I just went back and looked at a handful of teams dating back to 2002 and while their are some outliers where, say, Detroit has no top 10 picks and Atlanta/Winnipeg have had 10, Toronto is pretty firmly in the middle with 6 with most teams having 4 or so. The Leafs aren't near the bottom or the top. To the extent that they're removed from the median, it'll be by a pick or so.

I mean, as simple as we can get, there've been 150 top 10 picks over the last 15 drafts. That's five per team as a blind average, the Leafs had 6. Those 6 came at #5, #7, #5, #8, #4 and #1 which means their average selection in the top 10 was exactly 5.

I guess the raw number of picks isn't particularly meaningful. Surely, management, scouting, and development are important to keeping such players, avoiding the busts, and turning them into the sort of players that'd make up a good core. But I don't think any of this changes the fact that Toronto's acquired a lot of talent at the top of the draft. Probably too much, at this point, to get another really high pick.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 26, 2017, 08:37:16 PM
But I don't think any of this changes the fact that Toronto's acquired a lot of talent at the top of the draft. Probably too much, at this point, to get another really high pick.

I suppose, although I don't look at our roster and say we've just got way too much talent compared to Buffalo or Dallas.

The difference, to my mind, is that Leafs management has taken short cuts not necessarily to talent accumulation but rather to icing a competitive team. Andersen being a fairly good example.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 26, 2017, 09:01:44 PM
But I don't think any of this changes the fact that Toronto's acquired a lot of talent at the top of the draft. Probably too much, at this point, to get another really high pick.
I suppose, although I don't look at our roster and say we've just got way too much talent compared to Buffalo or Dallas.

Dallas has had some injury trouble -- and probably the worst goaltending in the league -- but I'd still say the talent they have available isn't any better than what the Leafs have. And the Leafs certainly have more solid core pieces than Buffalo.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Spider on April 26, 2017, 09:14:13 PM
Indeed we have. At some point I looked at draft positions over the last 15 years or so. Toronto was near the top of the league in terms of how many high picks it's had.

I'm not sure how true/meaninful this is. I just went back and looked at a handful of teams dating back to 2002 and while their are some outliers where, say, Detroit has no top 10 picks and Atlanta/Winnipeg have had 10, Toronto is pretty firmly in the middle with 6 with most teams having 4 or so. The Leafs aren't near the bottom or the top. To the extent that they're removed from the median, it'll be by a pick or so.

I mean, as simple as we can get, there've been 150 top 10 picks over the last 15 drafts. That's five per team as a blind average, the Leafs had 6. Those 6 came at #5, #7, #5, #8, #4 and #1 which means their average selection in the top 10 was exactly 5.

Wouldn't you have to add a #2 to the list?  JvR was a 2nd overall pick in his draft.  Don't think we have any other players that we traded for that were selected in the top 10.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 26, 2017, 09:19:32 PM
And the Leafs certainly have more solid core pieces than Buffalo.

Sure because that's not a ill-defined term that would be open to debate.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 26, 2017, 09:22:03 PM
Wouldn't you have to add a #2 to the list?  JvR was a 2nd overall pick in his draft.  Don't think we have any other players that we traded for that were selected in the top 10.

No? Because then I'd have to go back through all 30 teams every season over the last 15 years to see if they had any players they traded for who were top 10 picks and include them in their totals.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Frank E on April 26, 2017, 09:34:14 PM
That idiot WIGWAL might know a guy who has a link to the Marlies game should anyone want a PM.

 :-*
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 26, 2017, 09:58:31 PM
And the Leafs certainly have more solid core pieces than Buffalo.

Sure because that's not a ill-defined term that would be open to debate.

"solid"?

I dunno.

I bet you could settle on a reasonable definition of the term and, with an agreed upon definition, look at different rosters and see where we stack up.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 26, 2017, 11:06:44 PM
I bet you could settle on a reasonable definition of the term and, with an agreed upon definition, look at different rosters and see where we stack up.

Really? You think after I looked at Buffalo's roster and came to the conclusion they're not much less talented than the Leafs and you did the same and thought we're certainly much better off than they are we could sit down and come up with a definition by which either of us decides we were wrong?

I admire your optimism.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2017, 06:56:15 AM
If we're going to blame people for screwing up the draft position, then I have to think that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander...also Kadri and Bozak, and Connor Brown, probably late season Polak, Gardiner for sure, that Boyle trade, and calling up Kapanen really screwed it too.

Just to step in a second here, and this is also sort of my response to Grieves trying to figure out what the goal differential would be after any change, but I don't think you can separate the results guys like Marner, Nylander and Matthews got without also looking at the conditions they did it in. Keeping Bozak and JVR allowed effectively allowed for the three line structure of the team which I think most of us agreed was really important for the team's offensive output as opponents couldn't key in on one or two offensive lines.

Remove that, make it so that they have a more traditional checking line and two scoring lines and while I think all of our super-rookies still have good years I don't think they're all setting records.

Well, according to your prediction at the start of the year that included those players that you feel may have put them over the top, you had them pegged at 77 points, and most of us were in and around 80ish...so I'm not sure "most of us" believed that this would be the case at all.

My point is that you're a lousy prognosticator.

Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: RedLeaf on April 27, 2017, 08:02:54 AM
If we're going to blame people for screwing up the draft position, then I have to think that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander...also Kadri and Bozak, and Connor Brown, probably late season Polak, Gardiner for sure, that Boyle trade, and calling up Kapanen really screwed it too.

Just to step in a second here, and this is also sort of my response to Grieves trying to figure out what the goal differential would be after any change, but I don't think you can separate the results guys like Marner, Nylander and Matthews got without also looking at the conditions they did it in. Keeping Bozak and JVR allowed effectively allowed for the three line structure of the team which I think most of us agreed was really important for the team's offensive output as opponents couldn't key in on one or two offensive lines.

Remove that, make it so that they have a more traditional checking line and two scoring lines and while I think all of our super-rookies still have good years I don't think they're all setting records.

Well, according to your prediction at the start of the year that included those players that you feel may have put them over the top, you had them pegged at 77 points, and most of us were in and around 80ish...so I'm not sure "most of us" believed that this would be the case at all.

My point is that you're a lousy prognosticator.

LMAO
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 27, 2017, 08:04:27 AM
Well, according to your prediction at the start of the year that included those players that you feel may have put them over the top, you had them pegged at 77 points, and most of us were in and around 80ish...so I'm not sure "most of us" believed that this would be the case at all.

My point is that you're a lousy prognosticator.

This is more of that bottom of the pool bitterness.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2017, 10:48:06 AM
Well, according to your prediction at the start of the year that included those players that you feel may have put them over the top, you had them pegged at 77 points, and most of us were in and around 80ish...so I'm not sure "most of us" believed that this would be the case at all.

My point is that you're a lousy prognosticator.

This is more of that bottom of the pool bitterness.

I'll have you know that according to the data released this morning, I've moved up from second last place to a three way tie for 3rd last place.

Progress.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 27, 2017, 02:50:45 PM
I bet you could settle on a reasonable definition of the term and, with an agreed upon definition, look at different rosters and see where we stack up.

Really? You think after I looked at Buffalo's roster and came to the conclusion they're not much less talented than the Leafs and you did the same and thought we're certainly much better off than they are we could sit down and come up with a definition by which either of us decides we were wrong?

I admire your optimism.

Eh... I might give it a shot in another thread.

But, for now, I don't know what you saw when you looked at Buffalo, but here's what I see:
1. Matthews (1C) is better than Eichel, although Eichel is very, very good and could center a contender. Still Matthews is clearly better == advantage Leafs
2. O'Reilly (2C) is better than Kadri and younger == advantage Sabres
3. Marner (1W) is younger and already better than Sam Reinhart == advantage Leafs
4. I don't see that Buffalo has any answer for Nylander. Maybe Kane? He's older (25), not as good, likely won't be with the team when they're good. == advantage Leafs
5. Kyle Okposo (28) is locked up long term at a contract JvR surely would want. We don't know that JvR will be around (it's doubtful) == whatever
6. What I've seen of Ristolainen is that he's bad defensively, gets of points on the powerplay... he's a year younger than Reilly, but I'm pretty sure Risto will have a hard time catching Rielly == advantage Leafs
7. Gardiner beats Kulikov == advantage Leafs
8. Zaitsev beats Bogosian == advantage Leafs
9. Lehner had a SV% that was .002 higher than Andersen's == advantage BUF

So... I dunno. We're younger and deeper than they are at forward and much better defensively. A better team.

(http://i.imgur.com/2zo6q0O.png)

(http://i.imgur.com/x0BlR3G.png)

(http://i.imgur.com/ykxMdhq.png)
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 27, 2017, 03:50:57 PM
Wouldn't you have to add a #2 to the list?  JvR was a 2nd overall pick in his draft.  Don't think we have any other players that we traded for that were selected in the top 10.

No? Because then I'd have to go back through all 30 teams every season over the last 15 years to see if they had any players they traded for who were top 10 picks and include them in their totals.

Yeah, that'd be a bit much. But I'll take just two -- the outlier that's been blessed with the most high picks, and the Leafs, who I've claimed have done really well in the top 10.

2nd, 2002 = Kari Lehtonen ==> traded for former late-first rounder Ivan Vishnevskiy
8th, 2003 = Braydon Coburn ==> traded for Alexei Zhitnik (mid-30s at time of trade)
10th, 2004 = Boris Valabik ==> traded for former 5th OA Blake Wheeler
3rd, 2008 = Zach Bogosian ==> traded Myers (former mid-1st rounder)
4th, 2009 = Evander Kane ==> traded for Stafford (former mid-1st round)
8th, 2010 = Burmistrov ==> bust, put on waivers
7th, 2011 = Scheifele
9th, 2012 = Trouba
9th, 2014 = Ehlers
2nd, 2016 = Laine

So… they’ve kept four of their 10 high first rounders and converted one into another similarly pedigreed player.

The Leafs:
5th, 2008 = Luke Schenn ==> traded for former 2nd OA JvR
7th, 2009 = Kadri
2nd, 2010 ==> never had it (Seguin)
9th, 2011 ==> never had it  (Hamilton)
5th, 2012 = Rielly
8th, 2014 = Nylander
4th, 2015 = Marner
1st, 2016 = Matthews

We’ve got 6 high first rounders on the roster, one more than the outlying Thrashers/Jets. Why? Held onto players (Kadri) or got equivalent/better talent back (JvR), got lucky in avoiding busts, etc. So, I'd guess that the Leafs have as many high picks who are in/approaching their peaks as just about anyone (Edmonton strikes me as one with more... but can't think of many others. Arizona?).
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: crazyperfectdevil on April 27, 2017, 06:38:08 PM
I think bernier proved this year what we already kind of knew already.  Mostly that he's fine if he's not the number 1 guy in your organization.  But if you need the guy to play a lot of minutes and be the go to guy he seems to stumble.  I don't believe this year has proved otherwise. 

Also as 'easy' as it is to go out and get someone of Freddie's calibre the leafs have done a fairly awful job of it for the last decade and some other teams in need of a steady hand have similarly failed to find these dime a dozen guys.  so I don't know.  I'll wait to see if he can continue to perform at this level or better next season but I feel like going out and getting Freddie was a good thing. 

I don't know how much making the playoffs effects the players but I have seen past leaf teams seem to have more trouble as the games became more important.  Whether that's due to nerves or the other teams just preparing better as the standings become more important.  I don't know.  I find it hard to believe however that overcoming that period of frayed nerves and tighter competition would be in any way bad for a team. 

I don't know how good this team is  I guess none of us do.  If you're in the camp that feels that this year was a confluence of good things coming together for the leafs at the right time and that next year they could be a bubble team again or maybe even regress a little then you'd look at this as a bit of a waste in regards prospects and such.  If you're in the camp that this team might be really really good all ready and this year was them learning how to play with pretty much an upward trajectory from the start of the season to the end then I guess you see this as opening up the possibility of being able to compete for a cup before you really have to pay this core some money. 

I want to believe it's the latter.  Time will tell.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: slapshot on April 27, 2017, 07:15:31 PM

So now that the season is over and we've all enjoyed the unexpected playoff run and night-in, night-out competitiveness of this young team there's something I want to say. Something I've been sitting on for a while that I didn't want to be a point of contention while we were all having so much fun. Here goes:

I still don't like the Andersen trade.

I know, it seems crazy. Andersen is going to win the MotM standings and had what I would definitely agree was a good, even very good, year. Some people will probably say that his very good year was crucial to this team making the playoffs(I sort of agree) and that making the playoffs is going to be huge for this team's development(I mainly disagree).

But let's consider a few things:

1. Andersen was good, he wasn't great. Among goalies who played 50 games, he finished 10th in save percentage. Among the same group he was 13th in SV% at even strength. He deserves a ton of credit for durability and showed occasional brilliance but he also showed some real areas of weakness(those shootout points will really matter one day) and struggled with consistency(he basically had 3 great months and 3 bad ones)

2. I think we're overvaluing his individual contribution because of the swing from going from getting bad goaltending in one year to getting good goaltending the next. That's a huge shift and will drastically impact a team's fortunes but it doesn't make good great. I don't think Andersen's performance made Matthews or Marner or Nylander exciting players. I don't think it made Kadri have a better season. I think a lot of what we liked about this season would have happened anyway, especially because...

3. You know who else had a good but not great season? Jonathan Bernier. Bernier was better than he showed last year. Perfectly capable of, with a better team in front of him, delivering the kind of goaltending we saw him give the Ducks this year. Bernier's save percentage was .003 behind Bernier for the year but actually a point ahead at even strength. He's a good goalie and he has been for most of his career. The three point difference between Bernier and Andersen this year is identical to the difference between the two of them for their careers.

And after all of the fun of the playoff chase and the playoffs, now we're left with the genuinely difficult question. How do we take what was, to be perfectly blunt, an at times overwhelmed looking defence and turn them into a championship unit. We're already discussing how the free agent market looks bad. The trade market might be worse. The Leafs are probably going to be picking 18th. There really aren't any great avenues.

So while I had a lot of fun this year and Andersen's relative ability was a part of that, I'm still leaning on the side of the Leafs being better off keeping their picks(Sam Steel!) and seeing what Bernier could have given them. While we can debate the value of the experience making the playoffs might or might not give the players, I can say with some confidence that I didn't see anything from Andersen this year that made me think that his availability was something that needed urgent seeing to. I think goalies capable of playing roughly at that level do get moved with some degree of frequency these days.

Making that move once the team had some clearer picture of how to put together their defense still seems like the better decision to me.

I think it's a little early to be judging the Anderson deal. I think his overall stats are a bit skewed by his slow start, and yes he did have a bit of slump mid-way through the season. However, he was very solid down the stretch and in the playoffs when the pressure was really on. Bernier was also playing behind one of the deepest defensive squads in the entire league.

There are many things I like about Anderson. He's pretty calm and structured in the net. He's got a pretty nice glove for the most part. He handles the puck really well. Also many of the saves he made in the playoffs were very high quality chances, dead in the slot type of saves.
This was also his first year adjusting to a new team and adjusting to a heavier workload.  He's also a lot bigger in the net than Bernier.

I think we'll have a better feel on the deal after next year now that he had time to adjust and the Leafs will likely improve their defense further on the back-end over the off-season, and all those rookies will have a year under their belt playing to the Babcock structure. But obviously making your assessment you only had this year so far to go on.

I think, given the reasons explained above, Anderson could have an exceptional year next year, if he doesn't get injured of course.

Just my thoughts.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 27, 2017, 10:12:09 PM
But, for now, I don't know what you saw when you looked at Buffalo, but here's what I see:

I think at a quick glance the answer to the difference between how we approached this question is that I'm not comfortable with saying "Player X had a better season than Player Y in 2016-2017 therefore we can say he's much more talented and definitively better".
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 27, 2017, 10:15:47 PM
So, I'd guess that the Leafs have as many high picks who are in/approaching their peaks as just about anyone (Edmonton strikes me as one with more... but can't think of many others. Arizona?).

Ok, but the issue was just whether or not they'd had some sort of unusually high number of top 10 picks. They haven't.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 28, 2017, 02:55:22 AM
So, I'd guess that the Leafs have as many high picks who are in/approaching their peaks as just about anyone (Edmonton strikes me as one with more... but can't think of many others. Arizona?).

Ok, but the issue was just whether or not they'd had some sort of unusually high number of top 10 picks. They haven't.

No, the issue was whether the Leafs might already have too much high end talent on the roster to drop down to a top-5 pick. Framing it in terms of overall number of picks in the top ten probably wasn't as relevant as how many top-6/top-4 players they've got out of the top. They've had no real busts, Russians leaving the league, or even serious under-performers, and they've not bailed on anyone looking for quick fixes or to change the culture.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 28, 2017, 07:35:51 AM
No, the issue was whether the Leafs might already have too much high end talent on the roster to drop down to a top-5 pick. Framing it in terms of overall number of picks in the top ten probably wasn't as relevant as how many top-6/top-4 players they've got out of the top. They've had no real busts, Russians leaving the league, or even serious under-performers, and they've not bailed on anyone looking for quick fixes or to change the culture.

Well, no, you're confusing the two branches we've gone down. The first was you saying the Leafs have had an especially high number of top 10 picks in recent years. They haven't. Again, 6 of the 150 top 10 picks and 1 of the 45 top 3 picks. That's a wholly separate issue from the talent level on the team as nobody would say Dallas is less talented because Jamie Benn isn't a top 10 pick.

The second branch was Buffalo vs. Toronto and the respective talent levels(this is the "Toronto is just too talented to be a bottom 5 team") but in addition to where we might disagree on the talent of various players based on a season or two I think you're missing the obvious here. When you are adding up the "talent" on the roster compared to Buffalo you're including guys like JVR and Andersen when, really, in light of the whole premise of this discussion you should see why that's such a circular argument. Again, I have conceded that JVR and Andersen being around this year made a top 5 pick less likely that's why I don't think they should have been here.

The Leafs not being in the running for a bottom 5 pick this year is a result of the decisions they made to bring on guys like Andersen and not deal someone like JVR. When you compare the talent level of Buffalo or Dallas to the guys on the Leafs who absolutely had to be here this year(the three super rookies, Rielly and so on) that's where your case falls apart.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: mr grieves on April 28, 2017, 02:06:50 PM
No, the issue was whether the Leafs might already have too much high end talent on the roster to drop down to a top-5 pick. Framing it in terms of overall number of picks in the top ten probably wasn't as relevant as how many top-6/top-4 players they've got out of the top. They've had no real busts, Russians leaving the league, or even serious under-performers, and they've not bailed on anyone looking for quick fixes or to change the culture.

Well, no, you're confusing the two branches we've gone down. The first was you saying the Leafs have had an especially high number of top 10 picks in recent years. They haven't. Again, 6 of the 150 top 10 picks and 1 of the 45 top 3 picks. That's a wholly separate issue from the talent level on the team as nobody would say Dallas is less talented because Jamie Benn isn't a top 10 pick.

Right. I'd look at Dallas's line-up beyond Seguin and Benn and say that.

The Leafs have more regulars in their top-6/ top-4 than other teams that've drafted as many players in the top ten.


The second branch was Buffalo vs. Toronto and the respective talent levels(this is the "Toronto is just too talented to be a bottom 5 team") but in addition to where we might disagree on the talent of various players based on a season or two I think you're missing the obvious here.


We have enough NHL seasons of Bogosian and Kulikov to say Buffalo's defense is absolutely worse than Toronto's.


When you are adding up the "talent" on the roster compared to Buffalo you're including guys like JVR and Andersen when, really, in light of the whole premise of this discussion you should see why that's such a circular argument. Again, I have conceded that JVR and Andersen being around this year made a top 5 pick less likely that's why I don't think they should have been here.

I said above, as did Frank, that the reason the Leafs were successful this year was their youth. JvR and Andersen aren't the difference between this team and a bottom five finish. Not when you're also adding Marner, Matthews, Nylander; not when they played relatively well last year but had a terrible shooting percentage that was bound to bounce back.


The Leafs not being in the running for a bottom 5 pick this year is a result of the decisions they made to bring on guys like Andersen and not deal someone like JVR.

So, we disagree. Choices like not dealing JvR and bringing in Andersen are why they're in the playoffs, not why they aren't in the basement. I don't think Andersen was markedly better than other options, and I don't think JvR really insulated the youth so effectively that they wouldn't've had great seasons without him.
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Nik Bethune on April 28, 2017, 03:03:10 PM
Right. I'd look at Dallas's line-up beyond Seguin and Benn and say that.

Absolutely. Ignore all of the Stars' talent and they really don't have very much talent.

Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: sickbeast on April 29, 2017, 03:34:52 PM
Wow this is the most annoying thread I have seen in at least six months.  ::)
Title: Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 29, 2017, 04:35:25 PM
Wow this is the most annoying thread I have seen in at least six months.  ::)
Agreed.