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Maple Leafs News and Views => Leafs Media Rumours => Topic started by: TBLeafer on October 03, 2016, 06:07:26 PM

Title: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 03, 2016, 06:07:26 PM
There's serious speculation in Edmonton that he's being played off the Oiler's roster at this season's camp.

If we can get him for free, I say snag him.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Mr. Leaf on October 03, 2016, 06:24:47 PM
I'd be surprised if it actually happens, but if it does I'd say yes, without hesitation!
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 03, 2016, 06:27:03 PM

I don't really see the upside. Between Brown, Hyman and Sosh there are multiple young Leafs I'd rather see on the big club than Yakupov even if he came for free. He certainly wouldn't displace anyone in the top 6 and the idea that he can become an effective bottom 6 forward seems pretty far fetched.

I really think we'd need to keep in mind what it means to play yourself off the Oilers.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Bender on October 03, 2016, 06:32:07 PM
Yeah I mean KHL is an obvious option for him. Not interested in grabbing a bust.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 03, 2016, 06:33:23 PM

I don't really see the upside. Between Brown, Hyman and Sosh there are multiple young Leafs I'd rather see on the big club than Yakupov even if he came for free. He certainly wouldn't displace anyone in the top 6 and the idea that he can become an effective bottom 6 forward seems pretty far fetched.

I really think we'd need to keep in mind what it means to play yourself off the Oilers.

Or he can be our version of how the Pens are using Kessel on the third line.  He's still a useful, experienced, productive NHL'er that is worth his cap hit, even if he is a 1st OA bust.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 03, 2016, 06:36:26 PM
Yeah I mean KHL is an obvious option for him. Not interested in grabbing a bust.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

A 1st OA bust, isn't the same as an NHL bust.  Yak isn't an NHL bust.  He'd be claimed by another team undoubtedly if we passed over him.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 03, 2016, 06:40:27 PM
Not to hammer home the obvious but Phil Kessel is effective at producing on the 3rd line in Pittsburgh because he's a really, really good NHL player. Yakupov isn't. And Kessel did still get tons of PP time in Pittsburgh which is a resource I wouldn't use on Yakupov here.

Even still, that doesn't really address my larger point which is that if there's room on the team for a winger, the Leafs have young ones I'd rather see get the spot.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Bullfrog on October 03, 2016, 06:44:17 PM

I don't really see the upside. Between Brown, Hyman and Sosh there are multiple young Leafs I'd rather see on the big club than Yakupov even if he came for free. He certainly wouldn't displace anyone in the top 6 and the idea that he can become an effective bottom 6 forward seems pretty far fetched.

I really think we'd need to keep in mind what it means to play yourself off the Oilers.

Or he can be our version of how the Pens are using Kessel on the third line.  He's still a useful, experienced, productive NHL'er that is worth his cap hit, even if he is a 1st OA bust.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here. Kessel is a bonafide all-star player placed on the third line so that Pittsburgh would have bonafide all-stars on three different lines. How isusing a scorer that produces at a third-line level on the third line comparable?
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 03, 2016, 06:51:31 PM

I don't really see the upside. Between Brown, Hyman and Sosh there are multiple young Leafs I'd rather see on the big club than Yakupov even if he came for free. He certainly wouldn't displace anyone in the top 6 and the idea that he can become an effective bottom 6 forward seems pretty far fetched.

I really think we'd need to keep in mind what it means to play yourself off the Oilers.

Or he can be our version of how the Pens are using Kessel on the third line.  He's still a useful, experienced, productive NHL'er that is worth his cap hit, even if he is a 1st OA bust.

I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here. Kessel is a bonafide all-star player placed on the third line so that Pittsburgh would have bonafide all-stars on three different lines. How isusing a scorer that produces at a third-line level on the third line comparable?

Okay, I'll use Kadri as a comparable, then.  Playing 'protected' 3rd and 4th line minutes in the shortened season by Carlyle.  How'd he do?

Skill players with that level of skill (which Yak does possess or he wouldn't have gone 1st OA) can wreak havoc on the NHL's weaker players.

Also, if he doesn't work out over a month or so, no big.  We're rebuilding, anyway.  We can waive him as well.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 03, 2016, 07:02:42 PM

Yakupov has been used in a sheltered role in Edmonton and has not done well. The Leafs will already have high profile young players that, ideally, they'll want to shelter at times.

Last year when the Leafs were throwing in the towel a good case could be made for risky reclamation projects. This year it should be about putting Matthews, Marner and Nylander in the best situations possible. I don't see how Yakupov fits into that.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 03, 2016, 07:10:02 PM
You could see what Yak could do with Matthews or Kadri, Marner and Yak as 1 and 2 RW, Nylander in at #3C given is his preferred position, roll Bozak at 4C.  Yes it could bump a Laich or a Greening off the roster at forward.

Oh well.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: McGarnagle on October 03, 2016, 07:30:21 PM
If there was a D-man equivalent to the yak situation that appeared on waivers, then sure, why not. But we're finally at an organizational stage where we can say no to these sort of gambles, at least up front. It'll be a challenge to get enough icetime for the emerging forward talent as it is.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 03, 2016, 07:41:29 PM
This is sort of what I mean by putting the Leafs' young guys in the best possible position to succeed. Leaving aside the pretty reasonable assumption that the coaching staff wanting to go with Nylander at RW is based on what they think is best for him Yakupov has, over the last few years, gotten a fair amount of ice time with a bunch of different C's from the good and talented(RNH/Draisaitl) to the less so(Gagner/Roy)

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1684&withagainst=true&season=2013-16&sit=5v5 (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1684&withagainst=true&season=2013-16&sit=5v5)

In all of those cases the C's in question did better away from Yakupov than they did with him. Yakupov has effectively been an anchor on whatever line he's been on. As talented as we all think Matthews is, I think we still want to pair him with wingers that help him.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Dappleganger on October 03, 2016, 07:53:43 PM
Yes.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Dappleganger on October 03, 2016, 08:16:30 PM
This is sort of what I mean by putting the Leafs' young guys in the best possible position to succeed. Leaving aside the pretty reasonable assumption that the coaching staff wanting to go with Nylander at RW is based on what they think is best for him Yakupov has, over the last few years, gotten a fair amount of ice time with a bunch of different C's from the good and talented(RNH/Draisaitl) to the less so(Gagner/Roy)

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1684&withagainst=true&season=2013-16&sit=5v5 (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1684&withagainst=true&season=2013-16&sit=5v5)

In all of those cases the C's in question did better away from Yakupov than they did with him. Yakupov has effectively been an anchor on whatever line he's been on. As talented as we all think Matthews is, I think we still want to pair him with wingers that help him.

Yakupov's GF60 went up by almost 2 when on the ice with Connor McDavid. They played well together.

Actually, Connor generally had better stats playing with Yakupov. 67% offensive zone time. I thought they'd pair them together this year. Maybe someone should show the Oilers these stats.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 03, 2016, 08:36:18 PM
Yakupov's GF60 went up by almost 2 when on the ice with Connor McDavid. They played well together.

Well, sure. It's fairly likely McDavid will make the stats of whoever he plays with look better.

Actually, Connor generally had better stats playing with Yakupov. 67% offensive zone time. I thought they'd pair them together this year. Maybe someone should show the Oilers these stats.

The two of them had just over 200 minutes together so you're not talking about much of a sample size. I think when looked at in context with his numbers with other centers though you have to ask if Nail Yakupov makes everyone else worse how likely is it that he genuinely makes Connor McDavid better.

Here's McDavid:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1315&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5 (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1315&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5)

He's basically as good with anyone he spent any real time with as he is with Yakupov.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 03, 2016, 08:36:33 PM
You've also got McDavid and Pulju much closer to the same age, Eberle and Versteeg, the quintessential 3RW that can play up a lineup there now, while Pulju develops.

If Pulju doesn't make the team, Yak still has a place there.  If he does...

Do you really think they'll get anything back for Yak anyway if they give him replacement level minutes?
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 03, 2016, 09:17:10 PM
The main consideration is whether Babcock's coaching could help Yakupov get closer to the upside people thought he had when he went #1.  Not being your average coach, I think its conceivable at least.  It's a high-reward, essentially no-risk move.

What I would do is call up Eakins and get his intel as part of any decisionmaking.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 03, 2016, 09:39:25 PM
The main consideration is whether Babcock's coaching could help Yakupov get closer to the upside people thought he had when he went #1.  Not being your average coach, I think its conceivable at least.  It's a high-reward, essentially no-risk move.

What I would do is call up Eakins and get his intel as part of any decisionmaking.

I don't know if Eakins is the go to guy there. He didn't coach that roster very well.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Dappleganger on October 03, 2016, 09:50:43 PM
Yakupov's GF60 went up by almost 2 when on the ice with Connor McDavid. They played well together.

Well, sure. It's fairly likely McDavid will make the stats of whoever he plays with look better.

Actually, Connor generally had better stats playing with Yakupov. 67% offensive zone time. I thought they'd pair them together this year. Maybe someone should show the Oilers these stats.

The two of them had just over 200 minutes together so you're not talking about much of a sample size. I think when looked at in context with his numbers with other centers though you have to ask if Nail Yakupov makes everyone else worse how likely is it that he genuinely makes Connor McDavid better.

Here's McDavid:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1315&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5 (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1315&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5)

He's basically as good with anyone he spent any real time with as he is with Yakupov.

I think it's chemistry.

McDavid spent more time with only two other wingers. 3rd most time was with Yak (barring goalie and defence) and the stats are very comparable with the Yak pairing have the edge in some categories.

McDavid played roughly a 1/3 (32.8%) of his time with Yakapov and had a 67% offensive zone time, best on the team. I watched them play together. I thought there was something there.

I think Yak is the type of player who needs to play with talented players to produce. He can't create it himself but know what to do when he's there.

*Thanks for posting those stats btw. I remember reading an article last year, might have been before McDavid got hurt, that Yak was top 10 in points/60minutes while playing with Connor. Of course anyone could produce with McDavid but it seemed to make Yak come alive, while not being a detriment to McDavid either.

Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 03, 2016, 10:03:35 PM
I think Yak is the type of player who needs to play with talented players to produce. He can't create it himself but know what to do when he's there.

I think that's part of the problem though. It's not like McDavid is Yakupov's first chance at playing with a talented player. He's played with Hall and Eberle and RNH and generally with all of them he's been pretty bad and dragged them down.

Even if you're right and he had some sort of unique chemistry with McDavid that allowed him to be really effective, you have to ask yourself if that's something he's likely to duplicate with anyone on the Leafs. Matthews will probably be a very good player at some point but in the next year or so he's not a guarantee to be significantly better than RNH and Kadri definitely isn't going to be Connor McDavid any time soon.

McDavid isn't just a talented player. If he'd been healthy all year, there's an excellent chance he would have come in 2nd in the league in scoring as a rookie. If that's the sort of guy Yakupov needs to be effective the Leafs are a bad spot for him.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 03, 2016, 10:05:13 PM
The main consideration is whether Babcock's coaching could help Yakupov get closer to the upside people thought he had when he went #1.  Not being your average coach, I think its conceivable at least.  It's a high-reward, essentially no-risk move.

What I would do is call up Eakins and get his intel as part of any decisionmaking.

I think, especially based on what we just saw with Team Europe, you can make a pretty fair case that Yakupov has already had a number of pretty good head coaches, none of whom have been able to get any serious growth from him.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 03, 2016, 10:49:23 PM
The main consideration is whether Babcock's coaching could help Yakupov get closer to the upside people thought he had when he went #1.  Not being your average coach, I think its conceivable at least.  It's a high-reward, essentially no-risk move.

What I would do is call up Eakins and get his intel as part of any decisionmaking.

I don't know if Eakins is the go to guy there. He didn't coach that roster very well.

It's hard to say exactly what all went wrong with his stint out there but he was regarded as a very good judge of talent when he was at the Marlies IIRC.  I would want to know what he thinks of Yakupov's intangibles.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 03, 2016, 10:53:41 PM
The main consideration is whether Babcock's coaching could help Yakupov get closer to the upside people thought he had when he went #1.  Not being your average coach, I think its conceivable at least.  It's a high-reward, essentially no-risk move.

What I would do is call up Eakins and get his intel as part of any decisionmaking.

I think, especially based on what we just saw with Team Europe, you can make a pretty fair case that Yakupov has already had a number of pretty good head coaches, none of whom have been able to get any serious growth from him.

Sure, but Babcock's Babcock and no one else is.  And again, we're talking a no-cost acquisition here.  There's really very little downside to giving it a shot, especially since the experiment would likely play out pretty quickly one way or the other.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Tigger on October 04, 2016, 05:25:58 AM
Just for kicks, what's the likelihood of this?
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Boston Leaf on October 04, 2016, 07:50:48 AM
I remember the whole Fail for Nail campaign.. Crazy,,,  reminds me of the Alexander Daigle situation. I think we should pass.. Work with the kids we have
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 04, 2016, 08:02:16 AM
Just for kicks, what's the likelihood of this?

Just at a glance it seems like the sort of thing that might happen but probably not soon. According to this here from the Edmonton Journal it looks like Yakupov is very much on the fringe of the roster but, that said, they seem pretty certain he's still going to make the team.

http://www.theprovince.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/eight+oilers+points+ponder+nail+yakupov+likely/12248649/story.html (http://www.theprovince.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/eight+oilers+points+ponder+nail+yakupov+likely/12248649/story.html)

So this should probably be a general rumour rather than a media rumour. I can't find anything that suggests him being waived is imminent.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: sneakyray on October 04, 2016, 08:26:46 AM
same gm who traded tyler seguin...and taylor hall.

it should be interesting to see how what happens in edmonton this year!
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 04, 2016, 09:11:28 AM
same gm who traded tyler seguin...and taylor hall.

it should be interesting to see how what happens in edmonton this year!

Trades Draisaitl for Chara?
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 04, 2016, 11:42:54 AM
Here's the question - which player are you willing to bump off the Leafs' roster to give Yakupov a chance? I only see two real options - Greening or Michalek. Michalek has a much better NHL track record and, if he can stay healthy, should be a nice trade chip for the Leafs at the deadline (and, I'd say he has a higher likelihood of doing so than Yakupov). Greening makes for a much better bottom 6 winger than Yakupov. Looking at the roster, the cap, and the options, to me, it's a real simple no.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 04, 2016, 11:51:57 AM
Greening, Hyman, Brown, Leivo, Sosh (already starting on the Marlies due to injury).

They could go the Corrado route with Yak.  Get him used to the system and the team.  Once he has the confidence in Babs to give him some ice, try him out.  Maybe he sticks, maybe he doesn't.  If he doesn't, waive him and you've lost nothing. 
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 04, 2016, 12:17:32 PM

Even if it's a move with a fairly limited downside I'm struggling to see it as one with any real upside either. In an absolute best case scenario Yakupov has a good year(taking valuable time in a scoring role/PP unit) on a Leafs team that probably won't be in a playoff spot and then the team has to decide whether or not to re-sign him on the basis of one good year in a contract year. He'd have limited trade value too as, again, whoever traded for him would have to be comfortable signing him on the basis of one good year.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 04, 2016, 12:20:40 PM
A one year bridge contract with a league minimum raise for a qualifying offer could see to that.

Or he could get his QO and get picked up by Vegas.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 04, 2016, 12:29:16 PM
A one year bridge contract with a league minimum raise for a qualifying offer could see to that.

Which is what I'm saying. There's value in this if he has a good year and then if he's interested in signing a super-team friendly deal when there might be real KHL money on the table.

So limited upside, disruptive to the team's plans, unlikely success...hard pass.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 04, 2016, 12:37:43 PM
A one year bridge contract with a league minimum raise for a qualifying offer could see to that.

Which is what I'm saying. There's value in this if he has a good year and then if he's interested in signing a super-team friendly deal when there might be real KHL money on the table.

So limited upside, disruptive to the team's plans, unlikely success...hard pass.

How is it disruptive to the team's plans again?  I'm sorry I thought picking up a waived player if they think he contribute has already happened with Corrado and will continue to.  Leafs have right of first refusal given their 30th place standing on any waived player.

IF Yak hits the waiver wire, the Leafs ABSOLUTELY snag him.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: leafsjunkie on October 04, 2016, 12:39:46 PM
Yeah, they will and they'll play him on Stamkos line, too?  ::)
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 04, 2016, 01:34:18 PM
How is it disruptive to the team's plans again? 

Seems fairly straightforward. The argument is that for Yakupov to have a good year he needs to get offensive opportunities with a good C. The Leafs have plans for most of those spots. Bringing in Yakupov and inserting him into the lineup would necessarily change those plans.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 04, 2016, 01:59:21 PM
How is it disruptive to the team's plans again? 

Seems fairly straightforward. The argument is that for Yakupov to have a good year he needs to get offensive opportunities with a good C. The Leafs have plans for most of those spots. Bringing in Yakupov and inserting him into the lineup would necessarily change those plans.

Nah, they can roll 3 scoring lines and a grinding line with all the young skill they'll have.  Like with everyone else, Yak would have to EARN every inch.  If he does, great.  We find ourselves another good young player we didn't need to give up any assets for.  If not, we waive him (at which point he'll probably clear) and move on to the next player on the depth chart.

The plan was to not give away top assets to build a team.  Those top assets are now in place.  Now its about finding the right mix.  IF he waived, IMO its worth finding out whether Yak fits into that mix or not.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Tigger on October 04, 2016, 02:36:33 PM
Just for kicks, what's the likelihood of this?

Just at a glance it seems like the sort of thing that might happen but probably not soon. According to this here from the Edmonton Journal it looks like Yakupov is very much on the fringe of the roster but, that said, they seem pretty certain he's still going to make the team.

http://www.theprovince.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/eight+oilers+points+ponder+nail+yakupov+likely/12248649/story.html (http://www.theprovince.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/eight+oilers+points+ponder+nail+yakupov+likely/12248649/story.html)

So this should probably be a general rumour rather than a media rumour. I can't find anything that suggests him being waived is imminent.

Yeah, I doubt they're going to waive him at this point too, and if there's little interest in acquiring a recent 1stOA for nothing, well, that speaks volumes.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 04, 2016, 02:46:11 PM
Nah, they can roll 3 scoring lines and a grinding line with all the young skill they'll have.

It's not really debatable. Right now that's either already the plan and they have guys in mind for those spots or that's not the plan. Either way bringing in Yakupov and putting him in one of those spots or going with three scoring lines would change things. I appreciate that you're saying you think it would be a positive change but that's immaterial to the fact that it would be a change.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 04, 2016, 03:13:40 PM
Nah, they can roll 3 scoring lines and a grinding line with all the young skill they'll have.

It's not really debatable. Right now that's either already the plan and they have guys in mind for those spots or that's not the plan. Either way bringing in Yakupov and putting him in one of those spots or going with three scoring lines would change things. I appreciate that you're saying you think it would be a positive change but that's immaterial to the fact that it would be a change.

Not really.  Take Brown for instance.  While he does work hard at both ends of the ice, he isn't exactly known for his defensive ability on RW.  I can see Yak taking his spot, on the right side with Bozak, who is used to playing with a high skill offensive winger.  Just the quality of that skilled winger, goes up.  The plan doesn't change.

As for this season's team from last season's team at the start of the season.  The roster will already be more than 50% changed.

The roster at camp changes on a nightly basis.  Injuries cause change to the roster.  So in the case of the roster personnel, you are correct, it would be a change.

In terms of the plan, not so much.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 04, 2016, 03:36:25 PM
Not really.  Take Brown for instance.  While he does work hard at both ends of the ice, he isn't exactly known for his defensive ability on RW.  I can see Yak taking his spot, on the right side with Bozak, who is used to playing with a high skill offensive winger.  Just the quality of that skilled winger, goes up.  The plan doesn't change.

Well, leaving aside the fact that I don't think Brown is in that spot right now I think it's important to point out that none of these things happen in isolation. Using your example, sure, Yakupov comes in and Brown goes out. But what happens to Brown? Is he a Marlie then? If so, who does he play with on the Marlies? The Marlies already have a ton of interesting prospects fighting for spots, who does he push down? Who gets sent to Orlando? How does it effect the strategy, say, of the Marlies PP which you would assume is tailored to the strengths of the players on it rather than simply being a one-size fits all affair. These are all factors to be considered. All of those things are part of the various plans the team has going forward, both for individuals and the teams in question.

Which is were we get back to the point I was making. "Disruptive to the team's plans" was second in a list of three and they're all connected. If I thought it was a move with higher upside or likelier to succeed, then those questions would be less important. As is, I wouldn't shuffle around the Leafs or Marlies roster to see if Yakupov would be a fit. He just hasn't shown enough in Edmonton and the fact that McLellan seems to have no spot for him is pretty telling.

But don't worry. You've made it clear you would claim Nail Yakupov if he hits waivers.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 04, 2016, 04:06:53 PM
Not really.  Take Brown for instance.  While he does work hard at both ends of the ice, he isn't exactly known for his defensive ability on RW.  I can see Yak taking his spot, on the right side with Bozak, who is used to playing with a high skill offensive winger.  Just the quality of that skilled winger, goes up.  The plan doesn't change.

Well, leaving aside the fact that I don't think Brown is in that spot right now I think it's important to point out that none of these things happen in isolation. Using your example, sure, Yakupov comes in and Brown goes out. But what happens to Brown? Is he a Marlie then? If so, who does he play with on the Marlies? The Marlies already have a ton of interesting prospects fighting for spots, who does he push down? Who gets sent to Orlando? How does it effect the strategy, say, of the Marlies PP which you would assume is tailored to the strengths of the players on it rather than simply being a one-size fits all affair. These are all factors to be considered. All of those things are part of the various plans the team has going forward, both for individuals and the teams in question.

Which is were we get back to the point I was making. "Disruptive to the team's plans" was second in a list of three and they're all connected. If I thought it was a move with higher upside or likelier to succeed, then those questions would be less important. As is, I wouldn't shuffle around the Leafs or Marlies roster to see if Yakupov would be a fit. He just hasn't shown enough in Edmonton and the fact that McLellan seems to have no spot for him is pretty telling.

But don't worry. You've made it clear you would claim Nail Yakupov if he hits waivers.

So in other words. Every time a professional sports team, or any team for that matter brings in an outside player not in their team's current system, it is disruptive to their team building plans, got it.

Yes we have a deep prospect pool now.  Its a good problem to have.  Yes it could set the timeline back a bit from minor league to pro for Brown.  But maybe by only a month or two if Yak still busts under Babs, should they pick him up off waivers.  They won't be trading for him.

This kinda thing happens all the time.  Teams and players deal.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 04, 2016, 04:20:06 PM
\
So in other words. Every time a professional sports team, or any team for that matter brings in an outside player not in their team's current system, it is disruptive to their team building plans, got it.

Well, no. Bringing in a player during the off-season doesn't disrupt a plan already in place because the off-season is when teams start formulating their ideas and looking for holes to fill. Bringing in someone like Enroth didn't change their plan because clearly their plan was to acquire a back-up goalie via free agency. A team can, on its own, decide to pursue the best available back-up goalie in the off-season. You can't game plan around a specific player being made available on waivers.

Right now, the Leafs have to formulate a plan based on the idea that Yakupov isn't available. That plan is in place. Bringing him in would change things. That is incontrovertibly true.

But, again, change isn't necessarily a positive or negative thing. Like I said, "disrupting the plans" was one of three connected reasons. If you were bringing in someone demonstrably better than the options they already had, that disruption would be less of a concern. As is, part of my rationale for why I wouldn't claim him is that he doesn't present enough of an upgrade to shake things up.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 04, 2016, 04:32:09 PM
\
So in other words. Every time a professional sports team, or any team for that matter brings in an outside player not in their team's current system, it is disruptive to their team building plans, got it.

Well, no. Bringing in a player during the off-season doesn't disrupt a plan already in place because the off-season is when teams start formulating their ideas and looking for holes to fill. Bringing in someone like Enroth didn't change their plan because clearly their plan was to acquire a back-up goalie via free agency. A team can, on its own, decide to pursue the best available back-up goalie in the off-season. You can't game plan around a specific player being made available on waivers.

Right now, the Leafs have to formulate a plan based on the idea that Yakupov isn't available. That plan is in place. Bringing him in would change things. That is incontrovertibly true.

But, again, change isn't necessarily a positive or negative thing. Like I said, "disrupting the plans" was one of three connected reasons. If you were bringing in someone demonstrably better than the options they already had, that disruption would be less of a concern. As is, part of my rationale for why I wouldn't claim him is that he doesn't present enough of an upgrade to shake things up.

Gotcha.  Which is why IMO he'd get the Corrado treatment from last season to ensure that disruption wouldn't be a concern if/when they give him his first game.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 04, 2016, 04:56:47 PM
Gotcha.  Which is why IMO he'd get the Corrado treatment from last season to ensure that disruption wouldn't be a concern if/when they give him his first game.

Except that the "Corrado treatment" wasn't about getting him acclimated to the system, it was about getting him completely healthy before playing him on a regular basis. He had just come off an injury and had strength issues. He was cleared to play, so he couldn't get put on the IR.

Yakupov, other hand, is healthy (at least, he appears to be). You're suggesting benching a healthy player for half the season, and tying up $2.5M of the cap for the privilege (and potentially sacrificing another asset) - all while hoping he's happy enough with the situation not raise a stink or be a problem child - just to see if maybe he can turn things around enough to be a high value piece moving forward. There's way too much potential for negative to account for the slim potential for positive.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Andy on October 04, 2016, 05:11:42 PM
No.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 04, 2016, 06:35:14 PM
Gotcha.  Which is why IMO he'd get the Corrado treatment from last season to ensure that disruption wouldn't be a concern if/when they give him his first game.

Except that the "Corrado treatment" wasn't about getting him acclimated to the system, it was about getting him completely healthy before playing him on a regular basis. He had just come off an injury and had strength issues. He was cleared to play, so he couldn't get put on the IR.

Yakupov, other hand, is healthy (at least, he appears to be). You're suggesting benching a healthy player for half the season, and tying up $2.5M of the cap for the privilege (and potentially sacrificing another asset) - all while hoping he's happy enough with the situation not raise a stink or be a problem child - just to see if maybe he can turn things around enough to be a high value piece moving forward. There's way too much potential for negative to account for the slim potential for positive.

Who said half a season? One month or two tops, then he's fully incorporated or waived again. Point is there's zero risk if cap is cleared.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 04, 2016, 07:25:40 PM
Who said half a season? One month or two tops, then he's fully incorporated or waived again. Point is there's zero risk if cap is cleared.

That's clearly not true. There's the risk that they player they move to clear cap proves to be the more valuable asset. There's the risk that no one claims Yakupov, and he ends up being an additional $1.6M in dead cap space - which could result in increased cap overages. There's a number of risks you're either ignoring or downplaying. There's a lot more realistic risk than there is realistic reward.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 05, 2016, 01:18:09 PM
Who said half a season? One month or two tops, then he's fully incorporated or waived again. Point is there's zero risk if cap is cleared.

That's clearly not true. There's the risk that they player they move to clear cap proves to be the more valuable asset. There's the risk that no one claims Yakupov, and he ends up being an additional $1.6M in dead cap space - which could result in increased cap overages. There's a number of risks you're either ignoring or downplaying. There's a lot more realistic risk than there is realistic reward.

Agree to disagree then.  It won't take much to move a depth player and clear enough cap.  Polak for instance.  Plus there are no more re-entry waivers.  No need to roll a 23 man roster with 8 D.  Plus at Polak's cap hit, he's pretty much waiver proof at this time of year. 

Yak>Leivo
Yak>Greening
At present, Yak>Brown

Maybe playing with two seasoned vets in Michalek and Bozak, or JVR and Bozak could give him the spark he needs.  Maybe a look with Kadri and Komarov.

He's 22 for heaven's sake.  Outproduced Stamkos.  It could merely be a case of a mismanaged asset in Edmonton which is hardly a stretch.

A two month experiment on a rebuilding team posing very minimal risk in what was once the league's TOP prospect in his draft year if we have to give up NOTHING to get him.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: herman on October 05, 2016, 02:28:39 PM
He's 22 for heaven's sake.  Outproduced Stamkos.  It could merely be a case of a mismanaged asset in Edmonton which is hardly a stretch.

Are you talking about in the NHL or with Sarnia?
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 05, 2016, 02:47:50 PM
He's 22 for heaven's sake.  Outproduced Stamkos.  It could merely be a case of a mismanaged asset in Edmonton which is hardly a stretch.

Are you talking about in the NHL or with Sarnia?

OHL of course. 
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: LuncheonMeat on October 05, 2016, 02:53:41 PM
Who said half a season? One month or two tops, then he's fully incorporated or waived again. Point is there's zero risk if cap is cleared.

That's clearly not true. There's the risk that they player they move to clear cap proves to be the more valuable asset. There's the risk that no one claims Yakupov, and he ends up being an additional $1.6M in dead cap space - which could result in increased cap overages. There's a number of risks you're either ignoring or downplaying. There's a lot more realistic risk than there is realistic reward.

Agree to disagree then.  It won't take much to move a depth player and clear enough cap.  Polak for instance.  Plus there are no more re-entry waivers.  No need to roll a 23 man roster with 8 D.  Plus at Polak's cap hit, he's pretty much waiver proof at this time of year. 

As long as Babcock is in the press saying the team is too 'light', Polak is going nowhere.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Kaberle15 on October 05, 2016, 03:38:26 PM
Agree to disagree then.  It won't take much to move a depth player and clear enough cap.  Polak for instance.  Plus there are no more re-entry waivers.  No need to roll a 23 man roster with 8 D.  Plus at Polak's cap hit, he's pretty much waiver proof at this time of year. 

Yak>Leivo
Yak>Greening
At present, Yak>Brown

Maybe playing with two seasoned vets in Michalek and Bozak, or JVR and Bozak could give him the spark he needs.  Maybe a look with Kadri and Komarov.

He's 22 for heaven's sake.  Outproduced Stamkos.  It could merely be a case of a mismanaged asset in Edmonton which is hardly a stretch.

A two month experiment on a rebuilding team posing very minimal risk in what was once the league's TOP prospect in his draft year if we have to give up NOTHING to get him.

I Agree, if he is waived they should claim him. And of the cost is the Leafs waiving Greening, I'm fine with it.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: louisstamos on October 05, 2016, 04:14:17 PM
I'm pretty sure even if he's waived and sent to the Marlies, Yakupov would put us over the cap.  So, as a waiver wire pickup, no.  If they want to take salary back for him (Michalek?  Greening?  Both of whom I'd have a temptation to keep because of their potential return at the deadline), then I'd consider it.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 05, 2016, 04:25:23 PM
I'm pretty sure even if he's waived and sent to the Marlies, Yakupov would put us over the cap.  So, as a waiver wire pickup, no.  If they want to take salary back for him (Michalek?  Greening?  Both of whom I'd have a temptation to keep because of their potential return at the deadline), then I'd consider it.

NHL has approved Cowen's buyout.  We have over 2 Mil in available cap before needing to use LTIR.  Yak's hit is 2.5M.  Need to just waive a contract that frees up less than 500K.  Very doable to remain cap compliant by the start of the season.

https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 05, 2016, 04:59:06 PM
Yak>Leivo
Yak>Greening
At present, Yak>Brown

Two of those three players are unlikely to make the Opening Night roster as it is, and the third is far more suited to the 3rd/4th line role he'll be filling than Yakupov. He doesn't represent an upgrade over any of the players that will be filling the type of role you'd be using him in. That, combined with the salary cap implications (which are more significant than simply being below the ceiling - the Leafs need to be far enough below the ceiling not to push significant bonus dollars into the 17/18 season's cap), and other potential issue make it an extremely easy no.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 05, 2016, 05:11:38 PM
Yak>Leivo
Yak>Greening
At present, Yak>Brown

Two of those three players are unlikely to make the Opening Night roster as it is, and the third is far more suited to the 3rd/4th line role he'll be filling than Yakupov. He doesn't represent an upgrade over any of the players that will be filling the type of role you'd be using him in. That, combined with the salary cap implications (which are more significant than simply being below the ceiling - the Leafs need to be far enough below the ceiling not to push significant bonus dollars into the 17/18 season's cap), and other potential issue make it an extremely easy no.

So you don't realize how much cap we're clearing come season's end then.  Got it.  It makes it an extremely easy no for you.  Your position is not gospel.  Its an extremely easy yes for me, given our option to waive him as well if things don't work out with him.

If he isn't waived this all becomes moot anyway and just remains a matter of opinion. 
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: LuncheonMeat on October 05, 2016, 06:40:13 PM
Yak>Leivo
Yak>Greening
At present, Yak>Brown

Two of those three players are unlikely to make the Opening Night roster as it is, and the third is far more suited to the 3rd/4th line role he'll be filling than Yakupov. He doesn't represent an upgrade over any of the players that will be filling the type of role you'd be using him in. That, combined with the salary cap implications (which are more significant than simply being below the ceiling - the Leafs need to be far enough below the ceiling not to push significant bonus dollars into the 17/18 season's cap), and other potential issue make it an extremely easy no.

So you don't realize how much cap we're clearing come season's end then.  Got it.  It makes it an extremely easy no for you.  Your position is not gospel.  Its an extremely easy yes for me, given our option to waive him as well if things don't work out with him.

If he isn't waived this all becomes moot anyway and just remains a matter of opinion.

If I had to take on another team's garbage, Edmonton is pretty low on the list of teams I'd choose. Honestly, It's a coin flip between him and a guy like Leivo for me. I don't think either will make a big impact in the league, but might be serviceable players... maybe. And, well, I like Leivo's salary better. And please don't assume I 'don't realize how much cap we're clearing come season's end', just because I disagree with your opinion.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 05, 2016, 06:53:08 PM
Yak>Leivo
Yak>Greening
At present, Yak>Brown

Two of those three players are unlikely to make the Opening Night roster as it is, and the third is far more suited to the 3rd/4th line role he'll be filling than Yakupov. He doesn't represent an upgrade over any of the players that will be filling the type of role you'd be using him in. That, combined with the salary cap implications (which are more significant than simply being below the ceiling - the Leafs need to be far enough below the ceiling not to push significant bonus dollars into the 17/18 season's cap), and other potential issue make it an extremely easy no.

So you don't realize how much cap we're clearing come season's end then.  Got it.  It makes it an extremely easy no for you.  Your position is not gospel.  Its an extremely easy yes for me, given our option to waive him as well if things don't work out with him.

If he isn't waived this all becomes moot anyway and just remains a matter of opinion.

If I had to take on another team's garbage, Edmonton is pretty low on the list of teams I'd choose. Honestly, It's a coin flip between him and a guy like Leivo for me. I don't think either will make a big impact in the league, but might be serviceable players... maybe. And, well, I like Leivo's salary better. And please don't assume I 'don't realize how much cap we're clearing come season's end', just because I disagree with your opinion.

All good except that Yak has actually been in the NHL and has that experience, ya know, since he was drafted.  Its his development that has stunk.

Talent wise he is way better than Leivo, don't kid yourself.  Your opinion aside, of course.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 05, 2016, 07:31:41 PM
So you don't realize how much cap we're clearing come season's end then.  Got it.  It makes it an extremely easy no for you.  Your position is not gospel.  Its an extremely easy yes for me, given our option to waive him as well if things don't work out with him.

If he isn't waived this all becomes moot anyway and just remains a matter of opinion.

I'm well aware of how much cap the team is clearing at the end of the season. I'm also well aware of the number of contracts they need to sign to fill out the roster next season, the very real possibility the cap will only see a minor increase or stay stagnant (or even drop), and the extent to which any carryover can impact that. Right now, if the cap doesn't grow, the Leafs' have ~$21M in cap space next season before going into LTIR space to add 10 or 11 pieces to the roster. If they end up having to push $2M in bonuses into next season (which, with the number of players on ELCs likely to make the roster, is a real possibility if they sacrifice the amount of cap space required to fit Yakupov into the lineup without making a trade) really hinders their ability to add talent next season. The option to waive him doesn't really help if no one claims him, as it would only clear the pro-rated portion of ~$950K. So, really, you're advocating for a move that really boils down to picking up a long-shot reclamation project that could have a negative impact on the team next season while having no positive impact on the team at any point.

Just on cap space alone, it's not a particularly appeal move. Add in the potential for locker room issues, not really having a spot for him in the lineup where his skills would be put to use - at best, he ends up on the 3rd line, but, really the open spot up front is on the 4th. In both those potential roles, the pieces in the system are preferable to Yakupov.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: McGarnagle on October 05, 2016, 08:11:38 PM
I'm thinking that if he has all this no risk upside, he wouldn't need to be waived, no?
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 05, 2016, 08:44:43 PM
I'm thinking that if he has all this no risk upside, he wouldn't need to be waived, no?

You'd think that would be pretty obvious, right?

I mean, if he hits waivers, it wouldn't shock me a bubble team with cap space looking for a depth scoring option claimed him. the ~15 goals he typically contributes could be helpful to a team like that. As a reclamation project, however . . . he's not super interesting. I don't think his issues are related to how the Oilers developed him. There's been talk of issues with his skating, his shot, his attitude, etc. Obviously, there's a lot of grey areas there, but, the reality is looking much more like he's a flawed player that had the right advanced skills to look good against junior aged players, but that don't translate well enough to the NHL. He wouldn't be the first player like that (or the first #1 overall pick, either), and he won't be the last.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 05, 2016, 09:08:34 PM
Vancouver was quite vocal about waiving Corrado last season and having him claimed, too.

They very much regretted the need to do so and were very hopeful he'd clear. But newer players take spots away from some players if they fit into the mix better.

Plus we only have 47 contracts currently, so that works too.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 05, 2016, 09:14:57 PM
The anti pickup arguments ignore the central point of the whole exercise. The only reason to do this is to see whether he can blossom quickly under Babs. If he does then all the negative arguments melt away. If he doesn't -- in a short time -- then you move on like TBL says.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 05, 2016, 09:25:18 PM
The anti pickup arguments ignore the central point of the whole exercise. The only reason to do this is to see whether he can blossom quickly under Babs. If he does then all the negative arguments melt away. If he doesn't -- in a short time -- then you move on like TBL says.

That's really misrepresenting the argument. We're not ignoring it. We're recognizing the long odds of the situation, and looking at the most realistic outcomes. It's also not so simple to just move on. Almost all of the negative issues related to the move stick around unless the Leafs can move him to another organization - which, as a failed waiver pickup, would likely be a difficult scenario.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: KadriFan on October 05, 2016, 09:28:16 PM
Omg of course you claim him.  It's a no brainer really
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 05, 2016, 09:58:53 PM
Long odds but possibly high rewards. Maybe really high rewards. That's what justifies it. And I don't really think it's much of a big deal to organizational order if he ends up on the Marlies.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 05, 2016, 10:19:30 PM
The anti pickup arguments ignore the central point of the whole exercise. The only reason to do this is to see whether he can blossom quickly under Babs. If he does then all the negative arguments melt away. If he doesn't -- in a short time -- then you move on like TBL says.

It only ignores this central point because it relies on the assumption that Babcock has some sort of unique alchemy to developing players that other coaches don't. Again, McClellan is a good coach. One who very likely has a stronger record of developing young players into big pieces than Babcock has. If he's looking at all of this supposed upside and saying "Nah" then that's a far more compelling reason for me to pass than the idea that Babcock is the coachingiest coach who ever did coach is to pick him up.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 05, 2016, 10:42:46 PM
Long odds but possibly high rewards. Maybe really high rewards. That's what justifies it. And I don't really think it's much of a big deal to organizational order if he ends up on the Marlies.

Likewise, I really don't think there's a compelling case that "really high rewards" are much of a possibility. How many cases have their been in NHL history(and there have been bad 1st overall picks before) where someone is in the league for three or four years, looks like hot garbage for most of them, where they've given every opportunity and the result is they've played themselves off one of the worst teams in the league....and then eventually turned it around and became a really valuable contributor later on? Or even some rough approximation of the same?

Realistically the sort of rebound we're talking here even if it did happen isn't all that much different than someone looking at Brown or Soshnikov and thinking about what their top potential being realized would be.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 05, 2016, 11:19:56 PM
The anti pickup arguments ignore the central point of the whole exercise. The only reason to do this is to see whether he can blossom quickly under Babs. If he does then all the negative arguments melt away. If he doesn't -- in a short time -- then you move on like TBL says.

It only ignores this central point because it relies on the assumption that Babcock has some sort of unique alchemy to developing players that other coaches don't. Again, McClellan is a good coach. One who very likely has a stronger record of developing young players into big pieces than Babcock has. If he's looking at all of this supposed upside and saying "Nah" then that's a far more compelling reason for me to pass than the idea that Babcock is the coachingiest coach who ever did coach is to pick him up.

It's not an assumption, it's just a very low cost bet.

To engage your point, though, Babcock is generally considered the best in the business right now.  Or do you want to argue that too?  So coachology.

Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 05, 2016, 11:26:07 PM
I look at it like another potential Turris. Still doesn't have the top end as originally billed, but still a very useful NHL'er.

All this about cap also really is moot too, because if we waive him and he clears because he didn't work out, his contract also expires at the end of the season and we are under no obligation to give him a QO.

The cap argument against grabbing him off waivers is a strawman.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 05, 2016, 11:26:21 PM
Long odds but possibly high rewards. Maybe really high rewards. That's what justifies it. And I don't really think it's much of a big deal to organizational order if he ends up on the Marlies.

Likewise, I really don't think there's a compelling case that "really high rewards" are much of a possibility. How many cases have their been in NHL history(and there have been bad 1st overall picks before) where someone is in the league for three or four years, looks like hot garbage for most of them, where they've given every opportunity and the result is they've played themselves off one of the worst teams in the league....and then eventually turned it around and became a really valuable contributor later on? Or even some rough approximation of the same?

Realistically the sort of rebound we're talking here even if it did happen isn't all that much different than someone looking at Brown or Soshnikov and thinking about what their top potential being realized would be.

1st para: Like I said, long odds. 

One more time: When the cost is close to zero (no need to dispute that further, I get that you don't agree) and the potential benefits are much higher than zero (ditto), then taking a long shot makes perfect sense and the calculus is really not all that difficult.

Don't think I need to yak with u further because even though we disagree I totally respect your pov.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 05, 2016, 11:44:27 PM
The cap argument against grabbing him off waivers is a strawman.

Since you clearly don't know what the straw man fallacy is, here's a pretty simple explanation:

Quote
The so-called typical "attacking a straw man" argument creates the illusion of having completely refuted or defeated an opponent's proposition by covertly replacing it with a different proposition (i.e. "stand up a straw man") and then refuting that false argument ("knock down a straw man") instead of the original proposition.

That's not what anyone raising the cap as an issue is doing. Your proposition remains "the Leafs should pick up Yakupov," and we're saying "no, they shouldn't, because X, Y, and Z reasons" with one of those reasons being that cap implications that go beyond this season. The fact that his contract expires at the end of the season doesn't improve the cap situation of adding him this season. It doesn't remove the fact that adding without trading away a contract removes the buffer the Leafs currently had to avoid potential for bonus overages creating an unnecessary cap crunch next season. Being able to waive and demote him lessens the impact, sure, but it doesn't remove it. Waivers is not a "get out of jail free" card. Even in the minors, he'd count against the cap and take up most of the buffer the team has in place. Regardless of whether or not you want to acknowledge that it's an issue, it is an issue for as long as his contract impacts the team's cap situation - and, with the way the Leafs' roster is almost certainly going to be structured, that will quite likely include next season (again, regardless of how much you want to bring up the amount of cap the team is clearing, as that's only one aspect of the cap math - and one that is not as favourable to the team as you make it out to be).
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 06, 2016, 12:00:35 AM
It's not an assumption, it's just a very low cost bet.

To engage your point, though, Babcock is generally considered the best in the business right now.  Or do you want to argue that too?  So coachology.

Well, yeah, I would. I think if you asked a wide variety of people who the best coach in the NHL is I would sincerely doubt you'd get the most people saying Babcock. I think Quenneville, Sutter, Laviolette, Trotz...all would have their partisans. Babcock would too but the idea that he's seen as being head and shoulders above any other coach in the NHL I think is something you can really only say from within the Leafs' bubble.

Even then though there's different attributes to coaching and while I think Babcock has a lot of respect for what he's done I think that's based in large part on his results with Team Canada and that is an entirely different creature from developing young players(or turning around a stalled career). So to that point the question isn't "Is Babcock the best coach in the league" it's "Is Babcock the guy most likely to turn a bad player into a good one" and I think there's even less evidence for that.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 06, 2016, 12:09:07 AM
One more time: When the cost is close to zero (no need to dispute that further, I get that you don't agree) and the potential benefits are much higher than zero (ditto), then taking a long shot makes perfect sense and the calculus is really not all that difficult.

It's not that I disagree that the cost is close to zero, it's that I can make up reasons as to why the cost might not be close to zero that have roughly the same weight behind it as the idea that there might be really high rewards. I don't think it's needlessly wonky to get into this deeper than imagining it as some sort of abstract concept. We can look at the particulars and get a sense of the likelihood of potential outcomes and right now it's just as valid for someone to say that Connor Brown is a future 40 goal scorer whose confidence would be shattered by being returned to the Marlies as it is to say Yakupov is a future high impact winger who would turn it all around if Mike Babcock lays blessed hands upon his brow.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 06, 2016, 12:19:41 AM
The cap argument against grabbing him off waivers is a strawman.

Since you clearly don't know what the straw man fallacy is, here's a pretty simple explanation:

Quote
The so-called typical "attacking a straw man" argument creates the illusion of having completely refuted or defeated an opponent's proposition by covertly replacing it with a different proposition (i.e. "stand up a straw man") and then refuting that false argument ("knock down a straw man") instead of the original proposition.

That's not what anyone raising the cap as an issue is doing. Your proposition remains "the Leafs should pick up Yakupov," and we're saying "no, they shouldn't, because X, Y, and Z reasons" with one of those reasons being that cap implications that go beyond this season. The fact that his contract expires at the end of the season doesn't improve the cap situation of adding him this season. It doesn't remove the fact that adding without trading away a contract removes the buffer the Leafs currently had to avoid potential for bonus overages creating an unnecessary cap crunch next season. Being able to waive and demote him lessens the impact, sure, but it doesn't remove it. Waivers is not a "get out of jail free" card. Even in the minors, he'd count against the cap and take up most of the buffer the team has in place. Regardless of whether or not you want to acknowledge that it's an issue, it is an issue for as long as his contract impacts the team's cap situation - and, with the way the Leafs' roster is almost certainly going to be structured, that will quite likely include next season (again, regardless of how much you want to bring up the amount of cap the team is clearing, as that's only one aspect of the cap math - and one that is not as favourable to the team as you make it out to be).

Okay so then you're just grasping at straws then.

Come up with any other argument than the cap one, which has next to no relevance on a team doing nothing but clearing cap over the next 2 years and Yak himself being on an expiring one himself.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Tigger on October 06, 2016, 02:49:50 AM
 ::)

Not the Corrado treatment, not a strawman, a significant arbitration ruling that the Leafs and the NHL are waiting for ( though yes, it isn't likely to become a successful grievance, still ). Extremely unlikely the player will be waived. Actual cap and roster concerns. Babcock not really a wizard. Little upside given his likely use. Yakupov is better than Brown defensively? Nail is being sheltered in Edmonton because he is one of the weaker players in the league, not because he thrives there.

No offence to Nail but I don't want him anywhere near our top young talent at this stage.

I agree it is a low cost bet, just one that I wouldn't put any money into if I wasn't completely sure of the rest of the game, which I'm not. I'd ask a guy like Eakins what he thought, also McLellan if they really were waiving him, I'm not Babcock but my suspicion is that if he thought he could turn him around, that might be important, but I don't see how that would be the case when he already has an abundance of talented young already Leaf players in the system that he is very familiar with, and McLellan is part of the crowd letting him go ( which they won't ).

Anyway, eat the 100k, it won't happen.

Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 06, 2016, 07:34:51 AM
Okay so then you're just grasping at straws then.

No, that's you.

Come up with any other argument than the cap one, which has next to no relevance on a team doing nothing but clearing cap over the next 2 years and Yak himself being on an expiring one himself.

How about, instead, you actually support your position with more than "maybe he can turn it around?" What are the benefits to the Leafs in the more probable scenarios here? How would claiming Yakupov benefit the team in the most likely event that his play doesn't improve in any significant fashion? I've made factual arguments based on the way things have a high probability of playing out in the real world. Now, it's your turn. Make an actual argument for him that doesn't rely on the low percentage scenario.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Bullfrog on October 06, 2016, 08:27:49 AM
Okay so then you're just grasping at straws then.

Come up with any other argument than the cap one, which has next to no relevance on a team doing nothing but clearing cap over the next 2 years and Yak himself being on an expiring one himself.

If no salary cap and number of contracts limit, then I'm sure most people would be fine with it because it'd just be MLSE's money. But since both of those things exist, you MUST take them into account when analyzing the move you're suggesting.

If you want to advocate for picking him up on waivers, no problem, go ahead. I'm actually on the fence a bit (though leaning toward no.) However, you must take into account the actual implications. If he doesn't pan out and you waive him, then there's a $1.55M cap hit this year (more actually because you're taking the full hit while he's on the roster.)
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 06, 2016, 08:29:34 AM
While waivers could still be the eventual outcome this season for Yak, based on the latest reports in Edmonton, Pulju will most likely need some refining (20 games or so) in the AHL this season.  They speak of undeniable NHL talent, but costly errors that directly lead to some goals against.

So this discussion looks likely to be on hold for a couple months, anyway. 

Maybe Yak will play himself into some trade value in that time.

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-maroon-the-ducks-2-1-at-rogers-place

Playing very well right now with Drai and Maroon.  So starting to look like he's not the super high risk/bust/NHL career washout some here are making him out to be.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 06, 2016, 08:35:41 AM
So starting to look like he's not the super high risk/bust/NHL career washout some here are making him out to be.

The premise of this thread, that you started, is his team willing to lose him for nothing and nobody in the league willing to trade anything for him.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 06, 2016, 08:54:15 AM
So starting to look like he's not the super high risk/bust/NHL career washout some here are making him out to be.

Yes. Playing well in the pre-season is clearly an indicator that he's taking the next step. ::)
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 06, 2016, 09:13:35 AM
Okay so then you're just grasping at straws then.

Come up with any other argument than the cap one, which has next to no relevance on a team doing nothing but clearing cap over the next 2 years and Yak himself being on an expiring one himself.

If no salary cap and number of contracts limit, then I'm sure most people would be fine with it because it'd just be MLSE's money. But since both of those things exist, you MUST take them into account when analyzing the move you're suggesting.

If you want to advocate for picking him up on waivers, no problem, go ahead. I'm actually on the fence a bit (though leaning toward no.) However, you must take into account the actual implications. If he doesn't pan out and you waive him, then there's a $1.55M cap hit this year (more actually because you're taking the full hit while he's on the roster.)

Okay.  With the NHL approving Cowen's buyout, we currently without having to use LTIR, sit with the 11th highest cap in the NHL.  Outside of the top ten highest hits.  When was the last time that happened?  We've always been a spend to the cap team.  Now that we're a rebuilding team, we have so much cap clearing over the next two seasons most Leaf fans have a hard time grasping how much it truly will be to allow for future signings, even with potential bonus carry forwards in to next season.

Even single player signing carries a cap implication. Saying Yak's in particular could a potential severe detriment is just an argument that is wrong on so many levels.

Picking him up and waiving Greening would still leave roughly half a mil clear of cap at season start without the need of LTIR.  We start clear of the cap ceiling with 48 contracts total.

Coming off the books at season's end, over 20 MILLION.

Robidas will officially retire.
Can't see us bringing back Polak, yet again.
Can't see us keeping Hunwick.
Can't see us re-upping Greening.
Can't see us hanging onto Holland.
Bye Bye Laich and Michalek
Will we keep Enroth with a QO or will Sparks or Bibeau be ready?
Will Corrado be worthy of a QO?
We lose an unprotected player to the expansion draft.

You seriously worried about a few mil bonus penalty that could be potentially carried forward in to next season?  I don't think so.

Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 06, 2016, 09:21:11 AM
So starting to look like he's not the super high risk/bust/NHL career washout some here are making him out to be.

The premise of this thread, that you started, is his team willing to lose him for nothing and nobody in the league willing to trade anything for him.

So?  That was the chirping out of Edmonton at the time. Yak has picked up his game in camp since.  Very few rumours actually come to fruition, they just invoke speculation.  Stammer was a long standing rumour that didn't come to fruition.  The shelf life of this one looks like it could be considerably shorter.

Things aren't static.  They're fluid and ever changing.  We roll.  :)

The forum seemed quite dull, before I posted this little tidbit, wouldn't you say?
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: herman on October 06, 2016, 09:31:02 AM
No one pays attention to the forest until someone sets a couple of fires to it.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 06, 2016, 09:39:22 AM
Not if they never venture into it in the first place, no.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 06, 2016, 10:01:30 AM

So?

So given that the idea of Yakupov being waived wasn't seen as crazy or outlandish it then seems to figure that looking at him as a bust/washout is pretty reasonable.


The forum seemed quite dull, before I posted this little tidbit, wouldn't you say?

Not really, no. Either way, this is where I'd again say that in future you should probably post something like this to "General Rumours and Speculation" as it was unaccompanied by a link to a specific media report. Like I said earlier, when I went looking all I could find was someone saying he almost certainly would make the team out of camp.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 06, 2016, 10:20:20 AM

So?

So given that the idea of Yakupov being waived wasn't seen as crazy or outlandish it then seems to figure that looking at him as a bust/washout is pretty reasonable.


The forum seemed quite dull, before I posted this little tidbit, wouldn't you say?

Not really, no. Either way, this is where I'd again say that in future you should probably post something like this to "General Rumours and Speculation" as it was unaccompanied by a link to a specific media report. Like I said earlier, when I went looking all I could find was someone saying he almost certainly would make the team out of camp.

Hard to link Edmonton fans rumblings talking about the rumour smoke bantered about on their local radio media.  And Dreger's two cents. You can't deny Yak's situation in Edmonton is tenuous at best, now can you?
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Nik on October 06, 2016, 10:34:46 AM
Hard to link Edmonton fans rumblings talking about the rumour smoke bantered about on their local radio media.

Right but that's the difference between the General Rumour/Media Rumour boards.

There's nothing wrong with idle speculation based on "chirping" or whatever but we do have a separate board for it.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 06, 2016, 10:50:33 AM
Hard to link Edmonton fans rumblings talking about the rumour smoke bantered about on their local radio media.

Right but that's the difference between the General Rumour/Media Rumour boards.

There's nothing wrong with idle speculation based on "chirping" or whatever but we do have a separate board for it.

Which I understand and have no problem with.  Mods could move it if they saw fit, yes?

Edit:  LOL, just like that. :)  Now we're all happy and can continue to speculate on this tenuous situation in Edmonton...

Also if you want to be technical, except for what Dreger said, it isn't even a Leafs Media Rumour.  Its an Edmonton (NHL) one. :P
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: KadriFan on October 06, 2016, 11:20:39 AM
Long odds but possibly high rewards. Maybe really high rewards. That's what justifies it. And I don't really think it's much of a big deal to organizational order if he ends up on the Marlies.

Exactly.  It's not like the Leafs are loaded with top flight players.   Not even close....and who knows what could happen
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 06, 2016, 02:07:20 PM
The Blackhawks are apparently close to acquiring him, but he sucks for sure.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 06, 2016, 02:13:45 PM
The Blackhawks are apparently close to acquiring him, but he sucks for sure.

The Blackhawks also have Richard Panik on their top line.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 06, 2016, 02:18:06 PM
The Blackhawks are apparently close to acquiring him, but he sucks for sure.

The Blackhawks also have Richard Panik on their top line.

Multiple cup rings on their GM too.  ;)

To be clear, I think he is most likely a bust.

I also think, as others have mentioned, he might be the biggest boom/bust acquisition of this summer.

Can you imagine if he has anything close to a Panarin like season with the Hawks?

Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 06, 2016, 02:21:00 PM
The Blackhawks are apparently close to acquiring him, but he sucks for sure.

The Blackhawks also have Richard Panik on their top line.

See, their clearly not worried about hurting his development by sending him down the lineup or back to the AHL.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 06, 2016, 02:53:17 PM
So he's not too bad of a player for Chicago to be kicking tires on him in a potential trade, but he wouldn't be worth it to the Leafs if he became free to pluck off waivers?

Here's the goodies:

Blackhawks, Oilers have discussed Nail Yakupov trade, per reports (http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2016/10/6/13189362/nail-yakupov-trade-rumors-chicago-blackhawks-edmonton-oilers-2016)

Quote
The Chicago Blackhawks and Edmonton Oilers have discussed a trade centered on former No. 1 overall pick Nail Yakupov, reports TSN’s Bob McKenzie. A deal is not “imminent” and the salary cap remains an issue given Yakupov’s $2.5 million salary, but it sounds like there’s real interest here.
 
McKenzie says the trade talks weren’t “too recent,” but that doesn’t mean a deal isn’t coming. Jay Zawaski of 670 The Score is also reporting the talks and says money is the primary hold up in completing a deal.

The Hawks would likely need the Oilers to retain part of Yakupov’s salary, per Sportsnet’s Mark Spector, who reports a deal isn’t imminent but also says the teams are “talking.” Spector and Zawaski are both reporting that no NHL players would be sent to Edmonton in the deal.

Salary retention on 2.5M.... no returning players going back....  having him claimed off waivers in the end just might be more appealing to Edmonton than retaining salary for the season, just to get back a 3rd or 4th rounder.  Although they're miles away from the cap ceiling and his contract will expire after this year...
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 06, 2016, 03:33:26 PM
The Blackhawks are apparently close to acquiring him, but he sucks for sure.

The difference is that the Hawks likely aren't looking at him as a reclamation project, but, rather, there's value to them in acquiring the players that Yakupov actually is. The cap issues they've had over the past few years have really decimated their depth up front. They only have 5 forwards on their roster than scored 10 or more goals in the NHL last season, and only 7 who have ever put up that many in any NHL season. Adding a ~15 goal winger - especially one they might be able to get for little asset cost, a reduced cap hit, and zero commitment - has a fair amount of value to them. Any production/development above and beyond that would be a bonus for them.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 06, 2016, 03:44:11 PM
The Blackhawks are apparently close to acquiring him, but he sucks for sure.

The difference is that the Hawks likely aren't looking at him as a reclamation project, but, rather, there's value to them in acquiring the players that Yakupov actually is. The cap issues they've had over the past few years have really decimated their depth up front. They only have 5 forwards on their roster than scored 10 or more goals in the NHL last season, and only 7 who have ever put up that many in any NHL season. Adding a ~15 goal winger - especially one they might be able to get for little asset cost, a reduced cap hit, and zero commitment - has a fair amount of value to them. Any production/development above and beyond that would be a bonus for them.

I thought it was fairly obvious my post and follow-up were tongue-in-cheek...

Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 06, 2016, 03:45:10 PM
I thought it was fairly obvious my post and follow-up were tongue-in-cheek...

Well, maybe my reply to your post wasn't necessarily directed to you. :P
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 06, 2016, 03:48:28 PM
I thought it was fairly obvious my post and follow-up were tongue-in-cheek...

Well, maybe my reply to your post wasn't necessarily directed to you. :P

True, when someone quotes your post it's entirely unreasonable to assume they're directing their comment at you.  ;) 8) :P 8) ;)
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 06, 2016, 03:50:00 PM
I thought it was fairly obvious my post and follow-up were tongue-in-cheek...

Well, maybe my reply to your post wasn't necessarily directed to you. :P

True, when someone quotes your post it's entirely unreasonable to assume they're directing their comment at you.  ;) 8) :P 8) ;)

Sometimes, I just like to respond to the first person that raises a discussion point. ;D 8) :-*
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 06, 2016, 03:56:58 PM
I thought it was fairly obvious my post and follow-up were tongue-in-cheek...

Well, maybe my reply to your post wasn't necessarily directed to you. :P

True, when someone quotes your post it's entirely unreasonable to assume they're directing their comment at you.  ;) 8) :P 8) ;)

Sometimes, I just like to respond to the first person that raises a discussion point. ;D 8) :-*

(https://media1.giphy.com/media/F1EqNgksWjSaQ/200.gif)

 :-*
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 06, 2016, 03:59:33 PM
(https://media1.giphy.com/media/F1EqNgksWjSaQ/200.gif)

 :-*

(https://media.tenor.co/images/334ceee7b481e6487183db28ee07a7a1/raw)
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Tigger on October 06, 2016, 04:43:36 PM
The forum seemed quite dull, before I posted this little tidbit, wouldn't you say?

Dull in the sense that I was happily not gavaged with Buncombe? Sure.
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: bustaheims on October 06, 2016, 04:57:18 PM
The forum seemed quite dull, before I posted this little tidbit, wouldn't you say?

Dull in the sense that I was happily not gavaged with Buncombe? Sure.

Please. We all know it was hokum, not bunkum. ;D
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: Tigger on October 06, 2016, 05:10:35 PM
 ;D

But was it static or fluid?
Title: Re: Should the Leafs grab Yakupov if he's Waived?
Post by: TBLeafer on October 07, 2016, 08:25:06 PM
/Thread